Open 791 | Forest Fire | Game Over

[GuiltyLion]

I dreamt i was an arsonist..

was really scary. Fortunately for me, it lasted only for a moment!

hi Ydrasse hi Mena hi Pine hi Dunny hi Gamma hi Guilty hi clidd ! !!!!!!!!!!

I actually rolled scum in the original roll of this setup and it was very scary indeed!

VOTE: Farren
did you roll scum again?

[GuiltyLion]

I see what the role PM mistake was. we had a three man team!

It's okay, i didnt retain the arson tendencies. I worry Farren may have though

hahaha damn a three man team would've been fun

I share similar worries about Farren, I thought his page 1 was a little awkward

[GuiltyLion]

Pedit: I think our interaction is tvt.

Clidd - which interaction are you talking about here?

[GuiltyLion]

ah okay, I thought you were talking about you and Menalque, that makes a lot more sense, thanks

p-edit: I'm not sure, probably a slight townread based on mutual Farren pings but I just about finished reading through everything once and I don't have a lot of strong feelings about anything yet

[GuiltyLion]

I townread Gamma, I think that's my strongest read right now

regarding the idea of eliminating strong town players - I agree that there might be a side benefit if we tree stump someone with good reads, but when I rolled scum I was thinking about how a lot of players in this PL are high WIM tryhards and going to be difficult to convincingly scumread/eliminate. so I'd be skeptical of letting people get away with votes just because the consequences aren't too bad if we hit town - that still allows scum to get a step closer to wincon, and could give them more room to justify/excuse their votes. If we're voting to eliminate someone I think voters still need to pressed to explain why that player in particular is likely to be scum, I wouldn't be down for policying somebody solely because we think they'd still be good as a tree stump.

[GuiltyLion]

@Menalque - I don't think 70 is likely to come from scum, that's a really aggressive/call-attention-to-yourself way to defend somebody.

@clidd - I think the couple of issues I have with Farren are that a few of his questions don't seem likely to advance the game in a useful way and are either blendy or stirring things - mainly 20 and 72. I also think the soft defense of Ydrasse may be a WK

[GuiltyLion]

As far as defending Ydrasse goes: describing her as "Friendly" was not a defense. It was more a probe on Menalque to see if he was advocating for "Friendly = Scummy," - which he was not. The only other post - 62 - yes, that's a small plus to Ydrasse, as it's something I'd noticed as well. Why would you think that constitutes white knighting?

I guess the reason I called it WKing is that I don't see where it leads to nor stems from reads on Menalque or Ydrasse. I can see how those questions were meant to probe Menalque, but then you backed off of it in 52. so I felt absent of any real sense of your read on either of them, it felt to me more like "participating to participate" type posting rather than an earnest push on Menalque or defense of Ydrasse.

[GuiltyLion]

well like, I'm currently worried about clidd. that's mostly because I feel like he's trying to pre-emptively justify being not on-meta. which like, good very well be because he's burned out from the last couple of games and he's totally being truthful and just wants to have a chill game. in which case, great! I want him to have that too!

the last game I played with town!clidd (which I think was that Newbie you were in briefly) he posted this huge meta-analysis of my slot and I asked him whether he replicates that type of post as scum bc that's an insane amount of effort and he said he didn't think he could do it

so I see where you're coming from here, but I'm not sure he'd try to bring it up pre-emptively though. that feels a little brave as scum

[GuiltyLion]

do you have any thoughts on who might be scum so far btw?

PoE is telling Pine and Dunn. But it might change if they post something good.

eh I don't like this post

how is it PoE based off of like two RL days, especially when it gives you the two lurkiest slots

[GuiltyLion]

I think ydrasse is probably town.

Menalque what's your reasoning here? she feels way more casual/chill/friendly than I remember in either her scumgame or her towngame, I don't know how to read it

[GuiltyLion]

Personally, my town-lock on him is basically due to the depth of thought that he had about my meta, which sounded to me as extremely genuine.

how do you think scum!Menalque would approach your slot, his thoughts about your meta have nothing to do with his alignment. this is a bs reason for a townread and I especially don't like that it comes right after he softened up on you

VOTE: clidd

[GuiltyLion]

I don't have enough of a sense on you to accurately assess whether you are "calculating" or not at this stage, but I don't see why you'd lie about it as either alignment

I think you do feel kinda stiff/formal to me so that may explain the bad early game vibes

[GuiltyLion]

After thinking for a while (on relax mode on), I just came to my first serious read: Menalque obvtown.

Personally, my town-lock on him is basically due to the depth of thought that he had about my meta, which sounded to me as extremely genuine.

And the way he came to question me and at the same time think of solutions for that to happen in a way that he could draw an AI conclusion, without indirect shading or doing evasive maneuvers to make me look worse, was an indication that he was starting from a uninformed perspective (town) that doesn't know my alignment.

these things all point to it being about Menalque, no? Why would these comments refer to you, you didn't really speak much or at all about clidd's meta whereas Menalque was invoking it quite explicitly?

it definitely matters if it was about you and not Menalque

[GuiltyLion]

I don't follow, what do you mean by good questions? Like you don't think my questions were good?

I don't agree with you that Menalque is obvtown here and I think the reason you gave for it doesn't feel all that rigorous, which I would expect more from you. As either alignment Menalque can speak genuinely about your meta. It looks to me like you were happy with the conclusion he reached in 175 and townread him back as a result, I can't grok why you'd be confident he's town off that.

I also don't vibe with scumreads on the two lowest activity slots on the basis of PoE here, it's very likely that one of the more active posters is scum trying to establish a good foothold in the game

[GuiltyLion]

My read on Menalque is valid to me, I don't think he would go that deeper to understand my meta.

maybe can you explain which posts/points were deeper than scum!Menalque could or would post?

I think if you're saying "why would he go through the effort" I can better understand that read, but it read to me like you initially said it was the genuine-ness that made it town.

[GuiltyLion]

Are you reading the game, Lion ?

We aren't pushing lurkers to flash-elimination, we're making them post.

???

Menalque asked if you had any thoughts on who might be scum, you said Pine/Dunn. No one is saying anything about a flash-elimination, you were asked about YOUR reads and those were the ones you gave

[GuiltyLion]

Why is it likely for scum to be in the actives as opposed to not?

Very active posters: Mena, clidd
Very present posters: Farren, Morning, Ydrasse, GL
<10 posts: Gamma, Dunnstral, Pine

This reminds me of what someone would say if one of their arsonist pals had a lower post count. but you wouldn't dare burn down this lovely forest, would you? there has never been a guarantee in my games that a highly active slot was scum trying to deepwolf. In fact, it hasnt happened often at all.

the context for this was clidd saying he scumreads Dunn and Pine, and me calling him on that. I still think Gamma's town, so unless clidd is exactly right, then there's a scum in the more active posters.

I feel you're misrepresenting me in the last paragraph here, I didn't say "highly active" or anything about deepwolfing, I was making the point that someone who's actually playing the game is probably scum, because I felt potentially scum!clidd was avoiding causing any friction with people actually present in the thread. And as a rejoinder I'll ask you how often do you see in your games the entire scumteam with <10 posts by page 10?

[GuiltyLion]

@Guilty, i'll add this on to my other question in 232, who were you referring to as the "more active posters" when you said one is very likely to be scum?

yeah I was just about to address this when I saw your latest post

I think you're seeing that comment as something meant to vaguely shade slots like Mena without doing so by name, but my intent was more to push clidd on what I saw as a really reachy assertion about scumreads. I can see how I maybe got slightly carried away making my point in the abstract with the 'foothold' comment rather than focusing on specific players here, probably because I don't have a solid grip on how I feel about the game myself. It doesn't feel like anyone has really pushed to do anything yet

[GuiltyLion]

I don't like that Ydrasse pops in on page 12 and doesn't really bother to comment about clidd at all

[GuiltyLion]

idk I like tea leaves entrance, especially the point about Isis reaction to it being genuine - I had some reservations about Menalque/Isis slot but I think that read on it makes sense

VOTE: Ydrasse
I don't feel she's actually trying to solve

@Isis - yes she did, she readily gave a read on MT when prompted

[GuiltyLion]

^this is a good question, I didn't mind tea's comments on it in the catchup but repeating it in 370 doesn't really feel like a meaningful or useful push

also @Dunn, the main thing that stood out to me re:Ydrasse was she came in and answered a question about MT, gave justification for it that suggests she's current with the game, but didn't share any thoughts on Clidd, the main wagon and the person she's voting.

[GuiltyLion]

ugh the page top ruined that "^" symbol nooo

[GuiltyLion]

Isis resonated some feelings of Treeness when she reacted to my entrance so I like her already because she seemed honestly frustrated at her scumread maybe being wrong. MT asking me about slipping on being a Tree also seemed like a good question

what do you all make of these two townreads then

I guess I can imagine scum faking a townslip and then buddying both their accuser and defender, but it feels like a narrow path to take as scum here

does scum admit that being pressed on their fake townslip is a good question?

[GuiltyLion]

yeah Farren's right, especially given tea saying that they were trying to claim townie. NAI when it's possible that tea leaves read the setup post as scum.

[GuiltyLion]

- I had some reservations about Menalque/Isis slot but I think that read on it makes sense

Can you tell me why you were scumreading my slot so that even if you townread me and burn me from here out I'm sure to make you play on hard mode

I've townread Menalque both times I played against him as scum in the past, soooo I don't have a great track record with reading him. and I was a little uneasy whether scum was scumreading clidd slot with me.

I also think it's kinda wonky that Menalque made a bunch of noise about clidd but wound up townreading him, then you come in and immediately reverse course and go back to pushing him, meanwhile both of you indicated suspicion of Farren but no real action there

[GuiltyLion]

GL I'm not finding where ydrasse talked about her read, is the pop-in being complained about several pages ago?

page 12, posts 283 and 285

[GuiltyLion]

i think this is probably a self-centered view regarding guiltylion because he voted me, but it feels as if he's hyperfocused on a few small things that are at odds with being as cognizant of the game state as he is?

like, i guess it seems like a macro assessment of things (that i agreed with, no one pushing anything with vengeance) that zooms in onto me for reasons that don't hold much weight fmpov (the vote and me not trying to find the baddies) which seems... contradictory? in how to view the game as a whole.

how am I not being cognizant of the game state?

like from my view - I'm re-evaluating clidd slot and pressuring a slot that has been voting him the whole game yet not seemingly updating that read based on the content he's given. That leads me to decide to vote/pressure you. Why can you not imagine this coming from a town!GL perspective?

[GuiltyLion]

GL how do you read farren?

I see him as town, I think the stuff pinging me early game was tone clash

@Farren - a vote and a push? Isis gave some reasons for not liking you on entry but went on tea leaves instead, didn't move to you when vocalizing doubts about tea leaves, that's what I'm pointing to here

[GuiltyLion]

Her friendly tone and energy I thought looked a lil fakey at first but then I realized she'd probably be scared of appearing that way if she was scum and after looking through her meta I was right that she doesn't show it as scum but does as a townie sometimes.

can you cite the games you looked at? I've played with Ydrasse twice now (once where she was scum and once where she was town) and she feels completely different than both games.

[GuiltyLion]

scum game(s)? I just quickly checked again and I only see the completed scum game that I played in. Am I missing something here?

I agree she was more serious in that game, but she was serious in our town game together too.

[GuiltyLion]

actually you can ignore that question tea leaves, I retract it

[GuiltyLion]

will not be around to Properly talk/etc but @tea, what about guilty feels off to you? i remember your slot's predecessor saying the exact same thing and i'm wondering if you can verbalize it a bit better?

guys

why does Ydrasse ask this to someone about someone she claims to be scumreading/voting?

am I the only one seeing this?

[GuiltyLion]

can you cite the games you looked at? I've played with Ydrasse twice now (once where she was scum and once where she was town) and she feels completely different than both games.

Can you elaborate on the differences here? Between Town/Scum/Here|Ydrasse?

I think the main thing standing out to me is that in both of our Newbie games together, Ydrasse was more matter of fact, I want to say "formal" but it's not quite that, but just like, direct and to the point. Here's a sample post:

Ydrasse, I don’t like you.

You read as null to me. You read as null to everyone despite consistently posting. You don’t dominate the conversation but you do participate. Nothing you say or do specifically stands out. You’re good at keeping attention away from yourself by making non-contentious statements.

If this were a non-normal game, I’d think you were a Serial Killer or Survivor.

I want to know what is going on here.

this is the second time that you've referred to me as deflecting attention away from myself, the first being in 46. is there any post(s) in particular that have made you feel this way? because i would say that while i am perhaps non-contentious in the sense i am not aggressive about my pushes, i've been making the efforts to do so; mujie, while being closer to the start of the game being one and a vote on pearofclubs being another.

it might just be that this is my playstyle, and that i'm not a particularly Loud voice at times. i offer my input where i feel it works, push where i need to, blah blah. i'm not really worried about changing it up for the sake of being more ~memorable though.

midway is right though that it's a bit of a sweeping statement to say i'm null to everyone. i'm generally in the lower rungs of town reads i'd say which... is pretty average to how i'm considered in all the games i've played so far.

similarly, here's one from her scum game

i don't think that wagoning the slot is inherently a bad idea just because someone's gonna replace into it.

however, my poe still includes italiano as a potential solve; rereading his iso (b/c of their self-vote from yesterday), his only mention of pii before they started adding pii into their solve was 81 where they townread them. and then they come back to that slot in 188 with a scumread.

i think that what pinged me about this was that it came after italiano self-voting. while i think that frustration is within a vacuum nai, that he had pressure on him and then turned to a self-vote after feels very ate-y to me. the vibe i got was that it was a bit dramatic (that being "i've tried to no avail.") before it was being brushed off and he replaced his vote on his scumread and jumped back in. it feels as if the pii scumread of convenience because italiano doesn't interact with the content of the few posts themselves.

supporting the idea that italiano could theoretically do this as scum is 204, in which he says he's been in wolf games before this and has done bold moves which to me reads as a dissonance between something i pointed out in 79 and 91, where he asserts that he is a new player to this sort of stuff. i think that while there is not a 1:1 between all versions of mafia and italiano is new to this format, i feel in particular 91 feels a bit wifomy having 204 to read now.

that being said, i could see pii as scum despite this, though without more to judge i don't think i'm sold entirely on the idea. it's possible that italiano was frustrated, if they are scum with pii, that their partner has been inactive thus far and finds it easier to bus them at this point.

pii's posts were nondescript to me and i don't feel that i can say much more on the slot until someone replaces into it and becomes active.

VOTE: ItalianoVD

as either alignment, it's these kinds of post I expect from Ydrasse, a bunch of references to things going on, several paragraphs with lots of different thoughts and points, and kind of a straightforward approach to arguing. The difference I'm feeling here is that I haven't seen these types of posts from Ydrasse yet really, she's posting more casually and friendly.

It

might

be her just feeling more comfortable on the site and letting more of her personality out, maybe emulating some other players she's seen/read (I kinda feel like she's channeling more of a skitter vibe in this game), but do you have a sense of the difference I'm trying to point to? I know I just lazily grabbed one post from each game but if you do an ISO dive you can see it, there's just a lot more to-the-point content, here it feels like she's more chatty and peppering her posts with exclamation points and faces.

all that said, ISO skimming her here, 523 and 524 are the first few posts where I see more of the style I was seeing in these older games.

[GuiltyLion]

also, what do you think of tea's points against you? (i'm about to respond to them but i wanna know your take.)

the main thing both MT and TL take issue with is how I pushed on clidd for saying he had a PoE of Dunn/Pine. I stand by pressing him on that, it was an uncharacteristically lazy look at the game state, we both know clidd is not a lazy player. I can imagine why MT/tea leaves suspect I was being unfair, but I'm always gonna dig in when I smell bs and calling the scumteam as two chronically low-post players a day or two into the game fires hard on the scumdar, it's conflict-avoidant and lazy. especially coupled with how he was locktowning Menalque along with it.

the rest of TL's points seem to be just disagreeing on reads on Gamma/clidd

[GuiltyLion]

will not be around to Properly talk/etc but @tea, what about guilty feels off to you? i remember your slot's predecessor saying the exact same thing and i'm wondering if you can verbalize it a bit better?

guys

why does Ydrasse ask this to someone about someone she claims to be scumreading/voting?

am I the only one seeing this?

That’s not a scum thing at all though
Just because you may feel a certain way doesn’t mean you can’t question others who do as well

I've caught scum with pretty similar behavior

if Ydrasse scumreads me, she should be welcoming more votes on me, not questioning them. It feels she's trying to stir up Tea Leaves vs GL more than actually interested in executing me today

[GuiltyLion]

it's odd that we're at 22 pages now and we still haven't really formed a substantial wagon. Some of that might be two replacements in the middle of the day, but we should be running somebody up at this point, the game is still in a low-info state I feel. especially with the stump mechanic

if nobody's biting at Ydrasse I could go for Dunn. I don't think I want an execution in tea leaves/MT/Isis

@p-edit: Farren, look at 474 and 523. she's asking both of us to address each other

[GuiltyLion]

like "tea, give your reasons on why Guilty may be scum"

"Guilty, what do you think of tea's reasons"

If this is somehow influencing Ydrasse's reads on either of us, I haven't seen it yet

[GuiltyLion]

Pretty sure it was a fluke, I’ve done that myself as Town once or a dozen times iirc

well that means you play scummy as town

[GuiltyLion]

Farren - what is your read on Ydrasse, specifically? You're pushing back on my reasons for scumreading her, is that because you townread her?

here, you indicated you were thinking about voting her:

UNVOTE: Morning Tweet
VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I was going to switch to Ydrasse next, but I saw something that I thought had ... a connection, I guess? ... to a part of the gamestate, and I want to see if it develops on its own without me poking at it first.

Gamma, I saw one brief moment where you put yourself out there - and then you withdrew. Got anything else like that?

has the connection you referred to played out, can you explain what that was?

[GuiltyLion]

if nobody's biting at Ydrasse I could go for Dunn. I don't think I want an execution in tea leaves/MT/Isis

Why Dunnstral over Gamma or Pine?

I think Gamma's town

Pine hasn't played yet, I don't feel like that's a useful wagon or more likely to hit scum than random.

MT is voting Dunn and TL said they're scumreading Dunn as well. I don't really have a great reason to think he's scum but I don't have a great reason to think he's town either

[GuiltyLion]

I do not understand your townread on Gamma Emerald. I liked 70 and 77. You initially mentioned your read of Gamma in 99; I can see a townread at that point. Has anything since then influenced it?

not especially, I just don't want to vote/push him cause I still don't believe scum takes a hard line on Ydrasse there

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Dunnstral

[GuiltyLion]

@farren: :> i was just reading over that and noticed that gl didn't actually reply to that as far as i can see?

i think that gamma being resistant of accepting the townread/actively pushing against gl is townier than gl offering the tr and rolling with it/affirming it.

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I did answer it in 104, Gamma acknowledged this in his next post

here's a question for both you and Farren regarding my Gamma TR - why would scum!me give a freebie townread on Gamma specifically? What do you think is my angle here? When I rolled scum in the first roll of this setup, I specifically named him in the mafia PT (dunno if Farren/MT saw those posts tho) as someone I thought we may be able to plausibly push/eliminate. He's not someone who is generally universally townread or a town leader, I've historically mistakenly scumread him in several prior games, and this game so far isn't really an exception to his normal style IMO.

however, he has done something I actually see as quite town-indicative this game - he claimed an early strong townread on a questionable slot while it was under scrutiny from a well-known aggressive/influential player in Menalque. I hardly see this come from scum - if town!Ydrasse, he's cutting off avenues to vote her later for no real gain in terms of towncred, and risks town spewing her on his flip. I also doubt he'd do it if they were partnered, the vast majority of scum players are too scared to defend their buddy from early game suspicion in that manner.

The only agenda I could

maybe

see as scum-serving is if he's partnered with exactly Menalque and they were using Ydrasse as a wedge topic to casually distance from each other without actually pushing each other directly, but that like actively requires me to don the tinfoil.

There's also the execution of the post/read, he didn't bother to give a real explanation nor did he try to double down on it when he received blowback, it strikes me as a fundamentally genuine thought with no agenda or scum motivation. That's solid grounds for a D1 townread, and I haven't seen him

do

anything to make me want to go back and re-evaluate, as I said yesterday.

so winding back - if I'm scum and Gamma's town, why would I go through the effort of fake TRing him, especially since you don't see this as S-S? Would Gamma really be a necessary pocket for me here? If I were scum I don't think I'd even need to bring a read on him to the table at that point, it was literally the first read I gave and I could have likely dressed up a read on almost anybody else if I wanted to.

I can understand

not agreeing

with my read here, but I can't grok how you see scum!agenda in it, Gamma's not under threat of elimination and he'd be very low on the list of slots I feel I need to buddy or to play around if I were scum.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't have a sense of Dunn's reads on anybody in this game

and I don't like Farren using me as justification to not vote Dunnstral

[GuiltyLion]

overall I think I'm like here

{Isis, MT}
{tea leaves, Gamma}
{Bell, Farren}
{Dunn, Ydrasse}

Isis I'm not following 600, what's the inconsistency there

[GuiltyLion]

because there's more interest in Dunn right now, I pushed Ydrasse for a good ~500 posts and like three different people have her as hardtown

I'd happily go back to Ydrasse in a heartbeat if you want to start that up again

[GuiltyLion]

500 may be an exaggeration it's actually way closer to like 200 but you get what I mean

[GuiltyLion]

tldr: i think she'd feel pressured to play harder as scum, even if she has less access than normal and feels very comfortable with the playerlist, she'd at least do at least an effort post or two, just a single wall for one of her reads! She'd want to help her arso buddy by trying at least the best she can to not be eliminated

I read and have been chewing on your whole post but I'm quoting the tl;dr for cleanliness sake

I definitely think she's not playing to a tryhard scum meta here, I think you're right that from her past games she's shown a tendency to wall/fight/do more when she feels the game is in danger. and the point about there being no real reason for scum!her to intentionally change up her meta is fair.

I guess my hangup here is I'm not sure a scum!Ydrasse would have felt in danger yet this game - what do you think? Like I agree she's not trying to look like she's scumhunting, but I don't see her actually scumhunting either. Her wagon has grown some legs since Bell replaced in and the last time I caught up

with respect to the L-1 Dunn vote, that was after you posted this whole analysis - wouldn't scum!Ydrasse know that trying hard at that point, especially when dropping an L-1 is going to stand out?

If Dunn flips scum she's definitely town though

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - with respect to the L-1 Dunn vote, that was after you posted this whole analysis - wouldn't scum!Ydrasse know that trying hard at that point, especially when dropping an L-1,* is going to stand out?

dropped a comma

[GuiltyLion]

poe boils down to dunn/tea/lion rn

how do you square this with me voting Dunn instead of you or tea leaves?

[GuiltyLion]

should we be worried about if Dunn just doesn't return? Do we go to Ydrasse in that situation? It's kinda late to expect a replacement at this point

[GuiltyLion]

no, that team would make no sense?? I also addressed this directly in an earlier post:

If Dunn flips scum she's definitely town though

you're better than this, surely?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not the firefighter

VOTE: Ydrasse

[GuiltyLion]

I've only skimmed to see VCs, rereading in detail now

[GuiltyLion]

I like really strongly want to believe that GuiltyLion is about to claim Firefighter here so I don't really want to think about the game as much till that's confirmed/denied

Dunnstral's post looks like how he'd structure a fakeclaim. But I could be wrong; if you're confirmed inno you kind of can devilmaycare if you want to

LET'S GO GUILTY COME ON !!!!! you went to firefighter school didn't you ???

Not that I wont accept Dunn as our saviour and all but like, it'd make the game a lot easier and me a lot less incorrect

sorry to disappoint

[GuiltyLion]

I was saying to think about why posting cases on GL before CC is complete is bad.

it is bad because with town!Dunn and scum!GL GL gets advanced notice and can claim FF so that we stump Dunn. While if you wait for GL to claim VT and go for endgame, right after he claims VT you can say "btw you're not endgaming once I believe Dunn to be scum you're the one I hate" and he can't switch to counterclaiming FF

for clarity's sake, did you mean "once I believe Dunn to be town" here? otherwise I'm not really following this post

[GuiltyLion]

this is on the presumption that dunn is uncc'd + if it is and i'm asleep everyone can strongarm an elim on him through regardless

VOTE: guiltylion

town dunn makes me feel better about tea + that vote a while back. my working brain completely brushed over the fact gl had said that thing about me + dunn. i don't like how he was ready to switch to me at any point were the signs there and then didn't really do much about it when i joined a wagon that he was also on. even if he thinks that we don't make sense together i'd think that someone would be a little more worried about their Strongest (?) scumread hopping on with them.

p-edit: ya that's fine with me

Yeah I kinda feel like this is a bit too accepting of his claim in a way? Like it feels very self-assured that this won’t be rebuked
If GL doesn’t CC I’m inclined to vote out Ydrasse, and if Ydrasse flips scum that probably clears GL because Ydrasse would know if GL was her partner and if they were partners there’d be that chance of a CC

yeah +1 to this

like if Ydrasse knows both Dunn/I are town, then she knows his claim is true
if she were town, maybe Dunn is scum fake claiming and I (potential FF) just hadn't posted yet

[GuiltyLion]

I think it's absolutely important not to take the game personally, but I def don't think that means it's useful to be more mean to people, especially if

they

are taking it personally. The fine line is learning how to stay willing to vote/push somebody and not let yourself get deflected by AtE, while still trying to keep the situation enjoyable for all involved

RC is tremendously effective at pushing people but part of his game also involves taking it really personally as either alignment as defense and I don't think that's really an enjoyable way to play, even if it does work well. Honestly Menalque sometimes goes a bit too far in that direction too, though I do think he's working on it and I don't think I've seen him use it for advantage as scum in the way that RC has, rather he just genuinely gets offended as town.

The problem is if you're getting offended as town all the time then you have to start faking it as scum too, and that's the road that I try not to go too far down

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: tea leaves

What Bell said last night - tea leaves' response to Ydrasse's pressure was nervous.

I may be forgetting since I haven't been around that much so far this week - when was this specifically? Are you talking about the pressure over TL's vote on you instead of Dunn?

[GuiltyLion]

i think a better way to put it is tea isn’t as towny as others

why not

[GuiltyLion]

Why do you think?

I’d guess you’re deflecting from Ydrasse’s wagon.

Bell was pretty much a main driver of Ydrasse's wagon though? Like I don't think she'd have even been in consideration at this point if he hadn't started with a tunnel on her

[GuiltyLion]

if there's scum jumping on I think it'd be more likely in Isis/tea leaves, I don't think Bell/Ydrasse here makes any sense

[GuiltyLion]

personally I'm struggling with Gamma turning on Bell for voting him like that and suggesting Ydrasse/Bell team, that feels like he was more interested in discrediting Bell's vote than operating from genuine reads

but that could come from frustrated town, he backed down on it pretty quickly, idk if that's town or scum realizing they made a claim they can't realistically defend

[GuiltyLion]

there's certainly a degree of worry here about being flashwagoned

I think generally town should be less worried about that in a treestump game with the PR already outed

but old habits die hard

[GuiltyLion]

are we waiting on anything really? I kinda want to just go for it, if Gamma's town he'll be around to talk D2 anyways

[GuiltyLion]

love it when I get to do this



VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[GuiltyLion]

Dunn wagon at L-1:

Dunnstral - 4 (Morning Tweet, GuiltyLion, tea leaves, Ydrasse)
Unofficial, blame me for errors.

Gamma wagon:

VOTECOUNT 1.FINAL

Mountains

[5] Gamma Emerald :

Dunnstral, Bell, tea leaves, Isis, GuiltyLion

tea leaves is on both and was a counter wagon to both - is anybody hard townreading them?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: tea leaves

@Farren I wanna know where your reads are at and if you're willing to vote here

[GuiltyLion]

Also, if scum|GuiltyLion goes after you with VCA, what would you expect Town|GuiltyLion to do?

A push on someone that's a whole lot more substantial and reasonable than whatever this is.

I don't feel like you've given a lot of thoughts to my motives here

[GuiltyLion]

I'm beginning to see why tea leaves suggested GL/Farren the other day. If im not screwing up which I definitely am but still, it'd mean 1-2 of them is scum. Both I highly doubt

What is your actual read on tea leaves, though

like you say you might be getting tricked on them, but you're voting in a dichotomy that they presented?

and if Farren flips town, does that mean you vote me tomorrow?

[GuiltyLion]

As Morning mentioned, it's pretty easy to tell I'm on both wagons because it naturally follows from my earlier reads.

this is also kinda silly reasoning to defend yourself as town, scum are going to make sure their reads align with their votes

I'm interested in seeing whether a wagon on you here can get off the ground given it swung away twice yesterday

[GuiltyLion]

Do you still like the reasoning for your vote, given the readlist Morning pointed out?

I like my reasoning for my vote for entirely different reasons than the reasoning you're challenging

[GuiltyLion]

As Morning mentioned, it's pretty easy to tell I'm on both wagons because it naturally follows from my earlier reads.

this is also kinda silly reasoning to defend yourself as town, scum are going to make sure their reads align with their votes

I'm interested in seeing whether a wagon on you here can get off the ground given it swung away twice yesterday

No, it's the fact you're using the the reasoning that I was on both wagons to support your argument. It labels me as opportunistic, when that's not the case since those were my bottom two scumreads.

I've never said you were opportunistic. If anything it's survivalist, but it's not opportunistic, and the larger point really had nothing to do with why you were voting where you were voting at all, and more to do with the way D1 played out

[GuiltyLion]

Also, I was wagoned to 3 or 4 votes yesterday a couple of times, so confused by that reasoning too.

yeah and I was not one of those voters

so

[GuiltyLion]

If you guys make an insanely good case on tea leaves i’ll Consider it.
But clidd kind of obvtowns every game he’s in and this game wasn’t an exception to that.

I don't really see how clidd was obvtown, he said his scum reads were Pine/Dunn and gave a locktown read on Menalque, pushed back against me when I voted him but didn't scumread me.

[GuiltyLion]

A push on someone that's a whole lot more substantial and reasonable than whatever this is.

Do you think there's a strong case to be made against anyone right now?

Not a strong case, no. There might be if I looked through stuff again.

GuiltyLion doesn't feel like he's pushing me in good faith here though.

again, I don't feel like you're considering motives for my vote or why I'm doing what I'm doing.

[GuiltyLion]

why are you saying he was obvtown? What did he do that he doesn't do as scum?

[GuiltyLion]

@tea leaves

if I'm town

what do you think scum is doing right now

[GuiltyLion]

UNVOTE:

the purpose of my tea leaves vote was to see whether there'd be resistance or joining from slots like Isis/Ydrasse/MT, but tea leaves kinda forced my hand by getting defensive about it

if Tea Leaves is town that means there's absolutely 100% a scum in Ydrasse/Isis. Both pushing TL yesterday up through deadline then completely drop it to vote me today instead

[GuiltyLion]

I figure watching GL's reaction to being at E-1 will provide some insight on his alignment.

how do you figure?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: guiltylion

ty for the well wishes today guys <3

y'all seriously don't have any issues with this E-1?

Ydrasse was also an E-1 wagon yesterday at crunch time and a CW to Dunn

now she drops an E-1 on me and nobody even flinches, that kinda hurts to be honest

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion doesn't make me feel anything even when he's active tho

? I didn't get this sense from you yesterday.

Why am I scum to you here? Are you town reading all of TL/Ydrasse/Farren?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Ydrasse

literally no content on D1, no content today. there's only reason I'm being wagoned instead of her is because I don't mince words and I've been stepping on toes by actually trying to play the game

[GuiltyLion]

I think MT/Bell are town

the gamestate points to TL town, I think. I doubt her partner would have voted with her on Dunn/Gamma wagons, and I think it's suspicious that no one seems interested in voting her today despite her being a leading wagon for most of D1, especially since I didn't push her at all yesterday but I opened with voting her today. That points to scum saving her for a future mis-elimination, especially now if/when I'm chopped

Farren... idk. I don't like him angling to potentially vote me "based off my reaction" to E-1

Isis/Ydrasse has a scum in it, if not both. I think in hindsight Menalque's early game may have been distancing, and I don't think these two have substantially interacted since.

[GuiltyLion]

the one oddity about Isis/Ydrasse is both voting TL

but I think Ydrasse's TL vote was a survival vote, she was careful not to actually scum read TL at any point, instead giving that nonsense of "isn't as town as others" in 1178

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion's point on Ydrasse might not be good, but I believe he believes he's good, and his stock goes up.
VOTE: Dunn
It's a little scummy for him to complain about just scumbinning all the lurkers although he'd maybe do that as town too. Dunn is kind of a lower quality d1 selection than an average one but lots of people seem townish.
I think he's slightly more likely to post a little less as scum, I don't know if he believes that about himself.

this also stands out

I scumread Ydrasse genuinely, so I'm town
even though my read is wrong because Ydrasse is town

D2 now suddenly I'm a scum suspect, no evolution of Ydrasse read at any point

[GuiltyLion]

Re: 1492 - going into details kinda defeats the purpose of doing it.

Consider this though - if you hammer me because my "reaction is bad", I'll be here D3 and I want to understand exactly why you did that prior to my flip

and yes I am calling you scummy based on that post - I don't get the sense you've ever really committed to a firm read on me and it's problematic that you're giving yourself room to hammer in advance of me even posting in thread. If you think I'm town you should be defending me and pushing on Ydrasse/Isis for their garbage votes

[GuiltyLion]

I don't recall a single read from Ydrasse other than town!MT

[GuiltyLion]

i actually think now i'd prefer dunn over tea leaves; my read on tea leaves in that situation kind of rests on the implication that dunn is scum along with tea and i can... feasibly believe that tea believes farren is scum even if i don't think that the examples provided are particularly damning.

i also don't have a reason to really townread dunn in comparison to other people.

VOTE: dunn

[quote="In post 1178, Ydrasse"

]i think a better way to put it is tea isn’t as towny as others

[/quote]

ugh is more of me not knowing if everyone else is seeing more into tea than i am and giving it a sure why not

like

this is how she justified two of her votes yesterday

she gave more reasoning for voting me than anyone else she voted, but I'm town so

[GuiltyLion]

whoops, quote snafu, here's a fixed version:

i actually think now i'd prefer dunn over tea leaves; my read on tea leaves in that situation kind of rests on the implication that dunn is scum along with tea and i can... feasibly believe that tea believes farren is scum even if i don't think that the examples provided are particularly damning.

i also don't have a reason to really townread dunn in comparison to other people.

VOTE: dunn

i think a better way to put it is tea isn’t as towny as others

ugh is more of me not knowing if everyone else is seeing more into tea than i am and giving it a sure why not

[GuiltyLion]

hey y'all, sorry for the prod, this has been a really hectic work week + since Crusader Kings 3 came out that sucked up what little precious free time I've had left

I haven't read outside of this page and I don't plan to tonight as I'm super tired, but I finally don't have any meetings for work tomorrow so I should be able to catch up and play then. it sounds like we're stalling on dueling GL/Ydrasse wagons, which makes sense. I'll try to see if anything has radically changed for me when I read through tomorrow

Thinking about associations is making my head hurt. I think Guilty's sporadic posting is quite scum-indicative for him. Like, he has little interest for this game but forces himself to post in bursts every so often.

this is actually usually scum-indicative for me honestly, but my activity is down site wide if you check. you're absolutely right I've had little interest in this game so far this D2 but it's not cause I'm scum

[GuiltyLion]

has nobody come in with a "here's why both wagons are wrong"/"this is scum jumping on [x] wagon" sort of take? I'd expect to see at least one of those if it's TvT

[GuiltyLion]

I don't recall anyone making a serious TvT case between you and Ydrasse.

hah I mean when you put it that way it sounds ridiculous doesn't it

[GuiltyLion]

Re: 1492 - going into details kinda defeats the purpose of doing it.

Consider this though - if you hammer me because my "reaction is bad", I'll be here D3 and I want to understand exactly why you did that prior to my flip

and yes I am calling you scummy based on that post - I don't get the sense you've ever really committed to a firm read on me and it's problematic that you're giving yourself room to hammer in advance of me even posting in thread. If you think I'm town you should be defending me and pushing on Ydrasse/Isis for their garbage votes

Wait, why isn't my vote Garbage?

this question kinda feels like a grab for towncred

Farren said he was keeping an eye on Isis/Ydrasse slots, but then he had no problem with them voting me. whereas you were his strongest townread. I felt he should have been pushing on them specifically, you have nothing to do with that

You're removing the context of that point in order to ask a "why am I town" style of post

[GuiltyLion]

guilty feels incredibly fake + exaggerated to me; his outrage now (garbage votes) feels just as insincere to me as he did when he was like "guys... guys look at this!" yesterday.

both of the games that i've played with him he was town, and he wasn't like this in those. granted i am also very different than my previous games but with him it's a more... subtle thing? like, he's trying to emulate his town games fmpov rather than just being town.

I did notice a shift in tone. I don't think you're wrong here and yeah, if GL is town he will be back to end you it sounds like. I wonder. Isis implied she had 2 scum reads but only shared GL, but it doesn't feel really relevant to ask her for it, since I think she's town and she can let us know after/if we flip GL. Or focus on something else. I'm kind of chilling today.

@MT, sometimes, I obvious town. This might be a meta issue down the line for me if I stick around and am active enough here.

shift in tone compared to my past games? did you read my games with Ydrasse that she's referring to?

[GuiltyLion]

I really don't want to put in the insane amount of effort required to go over assuming GT is scum and then working backwards on who his partner is.
Based just on what I've seen in his last posts, he's trying to hint that I AM his partner as mis-execution down the line, but that only really works if he's scum this game.

Based on not calling your vote garbage? That's the only thing I see that comes close to hinting the two of you are partners.

If GL is scum, I seriously doubt he tries to shade you. Seems like a very low-odds-of-success plan given how you're generally read.

Yep. that's the one. It's small ofc.

why should I cage match Ydrasse? She's very likely flipped next if I go first here

if Bell is deep wolfing you plan to catch him how?

[GuiltyLion]

oops, quote bug, but I was about to quote those posts anyways. 1554 is a wildly self-conscious reach by Bell and it doesn't make any sense.

[GuiltyLion]

I think I'm talking myself into a Bell scumread

why are we sure he's town

I felt good about him D1 too but all he's done today is votepark me

[GuiltyLion]

Isis what from Bell is making you willing to bet the game on him being town?

[GuiltyLion]

I think I'm talking myself into a Bell scumread

why are we sure he's town

I felt good about him D1 too but all he's done today is votepark me

What'd you think about his push on me at the start of the day? Bell just has a number of posts that tone as town really hard to me or some other garbage like that. i thought his entrance to the game was quite good yesterday although i havent reviewed it in a while

Am i going to have to review this read? BlehhhhhHHHH

I don't think I've interacted with Ydrasse in any way that should look associatively good. I like her as a person but I guess I mostly don't have good rebuttals to all the people scumreading her aside from a toneread so it's pretty natural that my relationship to her looks like could be buddies.

I think I've been independently towny this game though so you should be able to figure out I'm not scum with anyone

I almost want to say it's Ydrasse with tea. Almost.

I think if it is Ydrasse, it's not GL/Farren/mayyybe you as the partner. Leaving Bell/tea. One of those two is blindsiding me in that scenario but that's not a huge surprise, someone has to be

How would you describe Bell's first 48 hours of D2?

rolling an answer to MT/Farren into one post

@MT - I didn't remember that push, it didn't register with me. I guess there was 1396 but outside of that I don't think he chased it all that hard.

wrt Farren's q, I think the more noteworthy thing is that he also pushed back on my tea leaves vote stating that clidd was obvtown. I didn't pay much attention to that as I had shelved him as town and was mostly focused on whether anyone would sheep me on tea leaves instead, but reviewing it now I still think it's weird that anyone would lock clidd as town based on how he played

[GuiltyLion]

I don't know why guiltylion switched from his position day 1 (it makes no sense for me to bus Ydrasse) to proposing a ydrasse/Bell team day two.

Hey do me a favor and quote the post where I proposed that team?

I'll wait...

this is exactly what I mean by the self-conscious point. me talking myself into a scumread on you does NOT mean I'm trying to pair you with Ydrasse

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Bell

[GuiltyLion]

Is there some reason you omitted me from the garbage pile? Because you were trying to take Farren's attention there, why weren't you FOSING Farren by noting his lack of hunting in that direction. Instead you seemed fairly obtuse, unless I misunderstood?

already answered this

Farren said he was keeping an eye on Isis/Ydrasse slots, but then he had no problem with them voting me. whereas you were his strongest townread. I felt he should have been pushing on them specifically, you have nothing to do with that

You're removing the context of that point in order to ask a "why am I town" style of post

[GuiltyLion]

yall need to sheep me on Bell whether it's today or D3 after you chop me

[GuiltyLion]

that's also assuming that gl is scum and if not the game's lost anyways so it's moot

2/2 scum in (tea, mt, isis, bell, farren) feels like something i could never solve but that's more of a personal take

as an aside, what is with all the fatalism in this game

"if [x] is scum it's gg, we already lost" type of sentiment is just lazy play and costs games

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion: why are you trying to start a new wagon this late? Are you townreading Ydrasse, and if so, how strongly?

I'm not townreading Ydrasse but Bell is right that he doesn't make sense with Ydrasse

my problem is I don't know who does make sense with Ydrasse

and I can't wrap my mind around why a town!Bell thinks I am "setting him up" as a partner

[GuiltyLion]

like Ydrasse's partner could only be Isis, no?

[GuiltyLion]

is the deadline really in 7 hours?

VOTE: Ydrasse

I'm not really all that sure this flips scum anymore though tbh :/

[GuiltyLion]

pagetop

I'll do some real posting/playing tomorrow, but I'm leaning Isis today. If it's TL/Ydrasse, they'd have to have been both voting me early D2, then tea leaves moved off me to vote Ydrasse instead, I'm not sure I really see scum!agenda in that move. and Isis ramping up posting/activity so far just today feels like a shift compared to D2

I need to reread MT as well though