Open 432: Robo's PYP (Game Over)

[DeasVail]

I'll read a bit later.

[DeasVail]

Hi!

I'm going to read now. Sorry about the delay.

And Code, I feel invigorated. Thanks for asking. So, what's our plan?

[DeasVail]

Unvote

1:

Slandaar seems town for his first post and following questions. I think absta is maybe slightly scummy for his response to Slandaar about not voting, but it's small.

2:

Starbuck's opening post, 38 seems scummy because of her dismissal of Slandaar's claim that he's obvtown (and following behaviour) meaning anything, instead of considering the motivation behind his actions. Also, her questions do not seem like things you'd really want to know the answer to as town, and seem more like scum trying to look like they're scumhunting.

3:

I'm unsure of Noraaa's posting, because on one hand I feel that the problems she has are not related to being mafia/town and instead are about being talked down to and accused of "investigating", so are more likely to come from town, but on the other, the focus seems to be completely on being attacked with no real attempt to find scum, which I find scummy. I'm leaning Noraaa-town.

Absta's 61 as a whole seems townish, but his response to Starbuck's question about the confirmed town thing, saying that he is naive and was influenced by code, doesn't make sense with his vote on Slandaar and unwillingness to unvote at one stage until satisfied with Slandaar's posting.

I think that Starbuck's 69 is weird, but I may be leaning town because it explains some things I was confused about, and I think it less likely that scum would attempt it than town.

Absta's 73 weakens my scumread, as it's a good point.

4:

Sawyer's posts have been giving me fairly consistent weak town feelings. I'm still fencesitting on Panda at this point. Scigatt looks like he may end up being a scumread though (due to not looking particularly town), but I don't have a good reason. Actually first line of 95 seems scummy to me.

5:

Scigatt (in 119) is trying too hard to please others, and is making what people want him to too much of a factor in determining his actions, which is what I'd expect from scum and not from town.

Absta's change of read of Noraaa to null-town seems convenient if he's scum.

6:

Kyle's position on Panda (that they've done nothing wrong) is strange considering their lack of scumhunting and his vote on Noraaa because of her lack of scumhunting. In the same post (134) he says that Noraaa is "definitely" the right vote, even though his previous comments demonstrate a great lack of certainty.

Shamrock is giving me a fairly solid weak town read.

7:

Code is giving me townvibes too.

~~

I'm really sorry guys, but this has been taking me longer than I thought, and I can't devote much more time right now. Around this time tomorrow I'll have heaps of time though, so should be able to get completely caught up then.

PEdit: Hmm, I think I'll be able to look town enough not to get lynched for a while, but it places you in a bit of an awkward position. I think it would be best if you keep attacking me fairly hard even if they start to think that I'm town, and if you think of a good convincing reason to start thinking I could be town, then go with it. I'm fine with being bussed though if necessary.

[DeasVail]

7:

I find 154 from Panda slightly scummy because his desire to "read up and debunk all the bullshit against [him]" is an attitude I'd expect from scum. Also, the SK mention seems irrelevant. Then again, the lack of attempt at appearing pro-town at this stage (by the time of Rach's post) and also her eagerness to provide meta, seem like things scum would avoid. I'll probably have to look at Rach's meta.

DarkLight's entry is fairly null. Actually, after Code mentions it, I think his L-1 comment is slightly scummy.

8:

Brandi's entrance: Lack of comment on the Panda wagon/Panda is scummy regardless of Panda's alignment.

Kyle is being way too inflexible regarding the possibility of Noraaa being read as town. Perhaps scummy.

9:

211: Natalie tries to excuse her lack of aggression, but I don't really believe that she thought at the time that she better not be aggressive. It's possible that this is just reflection on what would have happened if she had, but considering that it's essentially a response to accusations against her, I find it scummy.

10:

Brandi's idle sitting on her Monty vote without really doing anything else other than commenting on things unrelated to scumhunting is scummy.

Question Time!!!!!

BK, are you familiar with the Amished tell?

11:

Nothing too important here for me. (Or maybe I'm just getting lazy)

12:

I agree with Natalie's 283 but she still seems like possible scum to me.

13:

Natalie seemed to pretty confidently say that BK was scum (in reply to Brandi) earlier, but here is "not opposed" to a BK lynch.

322 is scummy because Rach comes across like she has the explanation for Elmo's comment, but it actually doesn't give any insight and provides a whole lot of extra details that look unnecessary to me.

14:

Slandaar's plan is actually pretty great. I remember him getting slack for it, and I can't see at all why.

In, 328, Absta has a pretty poor reason for unvoting. What does the differing opinions with ONE player have to do with anything? Giving him the benefit of the doubt- sounds like something scum would say to try and appear reasonable.

329 looks like Elmo saying he has insider information and that he doesn't at the same time.

Elmo:

Why do you want people to read Open 397?

Brandi:

Why do you think it would be more likely for town-Elmo to consult with Rach before saying something crazy than scum-Elmo?

And Natalie is so against the ~slip~ being possibly considered the slip, that it is not believable, and her defence of Panda reveals a lack of suspicion of Panda, which I feel would be likely to come from town there. So, I think this could be scum-Natalie trying to be aggressive, but just being scummy.

I think Brandi's reasons for not wanting to follow Slandaar's plan are invalid.

Brandi:

What was your thought process behind changing your vote in 349?

15:

Yeah, I don't understand Brandi's turn on Slandaar. Also, her reaction would be more believable as an initial one, not one that comes after thought. I still have to clarify my read on her, but I just don't get it.

Rach's reaction as described in 363 sounds only like one that would come from scum.

16:

Brandi's play is starting to seem quite exaggerated to me.

Absta's attack on Sawyer is good.

Eh, I haven't read the rest of this page properly, but I think I'll stop for now. Next time I post will be me sorting out my reads and deciding on them.

[DeasVail]

@Deas
Do you think Panda slipped?

I think it might have been a slip, but I don't think it is particularly damning if it is, and I don't think he's scum for it.

unvote: vote: DeasVail

Still a scumslot.

He attacks my play multiple times in #400, He even points to and agrees with Natalies vote on me.

but doesn't vote for me.

And says that Natalie could be scum despite the fact she's voting for someone he thinks is scum.

He's throwing out fake suspicion on me so he can vote me later when the opportunity rises.

He also goes back and forth calling Natalie town but potential scum. His wording on his thoughts on her aren't very clear.

What is there to indicate you are my top scumread?
Why would it be better for me to vote for you later than to have voted for you then? (especially considering I had not decided on reads and had stated as much) So basically, what opportunity would be better than now?

[DeasVail]

Brandi:

Can you please give me concise thought summaries on players you think are scum or have accused of being scum? I don't even need reasoning, just basically what you think of them.

Also, why didn't you check Elmo's play out for yourself instead of just relying on what others say?

Absta:

Why hasn't your theory about scum posting earlier at the start been influencing your reads?

Sorry, I haven't decided who I think is scum yet. I'll try and get onto it soon.

[DeasVail]

Is the plan still to vig Panda?

I wont do it for -you-

What's the point of this?

What does everyone think of Sawyer?

[DeasVail]

Vote: Sawyer

Slandaar:

Do you still think Brandi is scum?

[DeasVail]

I don't have any interest in lynching Sham.

Elmo, can you understand why people would think your slot is scum?

If so, can you see Shamrock as town who just believes you're scum?

[DeasVail]

I'm supporting a Sawyer lynch because, while I find myself confused by Brandi and Panda's play, Sawyer's posts don't really contain anything that I find particularly town-like, and there are a few things that I find a little scummy.

Little things:

-Top of 272 indicates what I think is a scum attitude. Scum are more interested on what they should comment on, whereas town are more focused on their reads.

-Mentions the possible slip without voting despite 315.

-The second sentence of 323 just feels off.

-Probably the most scummy thing: The way he responds to Absta's suspicion despite saying things like, "This post was almost not even worth responding to..." at the start of 379 seem like scum trying to sound like they don't really care when they actually do.

-Also, did he ever clarify the whole wanting to vig Panda without a claim thing?

Though I'm also fine with Panda because I saw it viewing the forum a moment ago and is gone without saying anything now.

I don't agree with this because I do it often as town.

[DeasVail]

Where is an example of you doing that?

[DeasVail]

@Deas - Look to post #503 for the quotes I was referring to.

That's different though. My point was that he makes a fuss about how things are not worth replying to, while still replying to them quite thoroughly.

Also, my top 3 favoured lynches at this stage probably are:

1. Sawyer
2. Panda/Elmo
3. Natalie

Someone feel free to convince me of scum-Nat if you want.

[DeasVail]

But Sawyer....

or even Panda...

[DeasVail]

Unvote: Sawyer

Vote: Panda

[DeasVail]

Unvote

Vote: Natalie

L-1

[DeasVail]

Hi

[DeasVail]

There's not much I can say about the suspicion on me. I think the reasoning behind it is fairly good, but I did have Nat as a weak scumread since I replaced in, just with others that seemed more scummy. When it looked like neither of my preferred lynches were an option, I joined the wagon.

Starbuck:

What were your thoughts on other players toward the end of Day 1?

Reckoner:

What do you think of your predecessor?

~~

Right now, I'm really thinking Sawyer is scum because of his lack of comment on the Natalie wagon at all, as well as my reasons Day 1 and a lack of towntells. I expect town to always try to work out what they think of someone who is being wagoned, and Sawyer just says nothing about it. Not "I think it's a decent lynch, but I think we should lynch Brandi instead. Here's why..." which would be what I would most expect from his lack of vote and weak scum read of Natalie earlier. If he had a more opposing stance, that's even more reason to expect comment and even persuasion from him.

His behaviour matches with scum not wanting to strongly oppose the wagon (by telling people to vote Brandi and/or providing reasons why) and not wanting to hop onto the wagon either. What I think is his care to not oppose the wagon is, in my opinion, demonstrated by him telling BK to hop "on the Brandi wagon or the Natalie wagon that formed out of nowhere" without saying that he thinks BK is a better lynch. Another is where he tells everybody to vote Panda, Nat, or Brandi, as they are the only ones possibly getting lynched. Again, more like a neutral facilitator than someone with an actual opinion.

Overall, I just think it completely natural that town-Sawyer would say something of his thoughts on Nat after her wagon and thoughts on her lynch, or attempts to decide which lynch he likes better, but I feel that anything like this is unnaturally absent.

At some point I need to go over the Nat/Sawyer interactions again and maybe even his ISO, but for now:

VOTE: Sawyer

[DeasVail]

But Elmo's "slip", WHICH WAS NOT A SLIP AT ALL AND YOU ARE AN IDIOT IF YOU ACTUALLY THOUGHT IT WAS, is the most illuminating piece of information in this game. Post 330 is the truth except for obvtown on BK. When I went V/LA, I just copied and pasted a message into the thread without reading it. I doubt BK read that and didn't say anything about it. And if he did, that's more likely to come from scum who doesn't want to react the wrong way.

Brandi's and Starbuck's reactions scream scum. Starbuck is reluctant to join the wagon, which is extremely scummy. IF YOU THOUGHT IT WAS A SLIP, YOU WOULDN'T WAIT AND LET THEM EXPLAIN THEMSELVES. It actually looks like Starbuck might be waiting for her scum partner to come and save himself.

This seems to support Panda-town to me, as I think taking such an aggressive against-the-norm opinion about a scumbuddy is unlikely.

[DeasVail]

DV why have you reversed positions on Panda?

Because of Natalie's play. I'm not completely sold on it, but I'm not that interested in lynching them now.

[DeasVail]

I am considering sheeping Slandaar ... there's plenty of WIFOM over his kill but either way he was pretty hard core on Absta.

Unvote

Why the unvote?

[DeasVail]

Can you be more specific? I looked through both their and Natalie's iso after the lynch but didn't really see anything pushing me further towards or away from the Panda lynch. I don't see how it's particularly unlikely that they're partners.

It's just my opinion, but 664.

[DeasVail]

During the couple of days before you hammered Natalie, who did you want lynched/what did you think of the wagons?

[DeasVail]

I'm sorry, but your response didn't really change my opinion, because it's quite standard for one to be voting for the lynch they support near the end of a day. My suspicion is based on your lack of attempt to better read the other lynch candidates and/or try to have some say in who gets lynched. Apart from your vote, you didn't seem to care too much about who was lynched. My theory is fear of any attempt to get Brandi lynched looking like an attempt to save Nat.

Also, it seems to me that the BK speculation above looks possibly like scum trying to look more town, and the belief that Slan was vigged seems like scum pretending to believe the opposite of what actually happened.

His expectation that an explanation would make my scumread disappear is maybe a slight towntell though.

[DeasVail]

UNVOTE: Purrfect Panda
VOTE: Sawyer

What changed your mind?

[DeasVail]

I think Brandi's posting could be considered scummy, but I think she's town at the moment.

[DeasVail]

His expectation that an explanation would make my scumread disappear is maybe a slight towntell though.

Absta you literally are bringing up something I already responded to.
Like literally every issue you've had with me I've explained and you just blatantly ignored it.

[DeasVail]

@Deas: What is wrong with your faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaace?

Um.. I don't know?

[DeasVail]

You did something kind of similar to what I earlier said I found townish.

I found it interesting.

[DeasVail]

Panda is most likely town. At a time when Nat was safe, she encouraged the vig to kill Panda. She even said "Slaandar's plan is foolproof".

I disagree with this reasoning.

[DeasVail]

Because Nat supporting a plan to vig Panda that is already in place doesn't make a vig on Panda all that much more likely, and has the benefit of distancing them.

[DeasVail]

I'd like to get a good read-through of Sawyer done before any lynching if possible. No time now, but hopefully soon.

Sawyer:

Are you convinced that I'm scum? (because I'm not at all convinced that you are)

Also, my #2 scumread is probably starbuck, but I haven't checked that out properly.

Panda:

Did Slandaar suspect Sawyer?

[DeasVail]

Though Starbuck as your number 2 scumread seems a little odd. If you could give your reasons for suspicion toward her, that would be nice.

I'm actually wanting to hold out on giving them until Starbuck posts more, and I don't think knowing why I think Starbuck is scum matters too much to you.

Why is having Starbuck as a scumread odd though?

[DeasVail]

Also Sawyer, how would you feel if I retracted my scumread on you?

~~

I'm becoming a little less sure of my Sawyer read.

The main things keeping my scumread there are:

-how the topic of him wanting Panda vigged without a claim has come up a lot, but he hasn't responded to any of it, as if wanting to avoid the issue.
-Not opposing a Natalie lynch (other than his vote on a different wagon) despite not liking the Natalie wagon (which also doesn't make much sense considering his null-scumread on her).
-Other small things that I've mentioned are scummy.

Problem is, I do find some of his posts kind of townish, and the new notable thing about me in 738 doesn't really seem like a good argument at all to me, so scum would more likely not bother with it, while I think maybe town may actually believe it?

Sometimes I find things town for no good reason though, so if people could really look at Sawyer and tell me if they think anything is particularly townish, or if there's something you think is scummy that I haven't mentioned, that would be awesome.

[DeasVail]

I've already explained why Panda is more town than yesterday, although I'm not that sure of it.

I'm not sure of Absta. I may have another look when I have time, but I find the change of vote perhaps a slight towntell.

[DeasVail]

Prod dodge. Will post more later.

[DeasVail]

I'm probably against an Absta lynch, but here are the key things I think from his ISO:

-I find his Slandaar comments during early day 1 to be slightly scummy.

Q:

Why did you wait until you thought it was relevant to explain your theory about scum posting first?

I agree that him saying he's disappointed in Nat's lack of aggressiveness is weird, and the fact that he says it indicates a change in role (with no further push on Nat) is bad too, but I have a problem. When you're scum, don't you make sure your play makes sense? (ESPECIALLY with scumbuddies?) I'm still not sure because it just feels so off, but I'm doubtful as to the likelihood of Absta-scum being like that with a scumbuddy.

Q:

How did your read on Starbuck change throughout Day 1?

Also, the vote change to Nat and then back again is probably the strongest town thing from Absta. Since he voted for Nat after a substantial wagon on her developed, it probably means he was prepared for her to be lynched. I would more likely expect scum in such a position to stay on the wagon so as not to attract attention to themselves, perhaps unvoting if a nat lynch becomes unpopular or perhaps continuing to pursue her lynch. Voting for Panda after Nat has reached L-1 and Brandi votes them, is something that scum would know would look suspicious if they were partners with Nat, and he would have been much better off just supporting a Panda lynch from the beginning from his PoV if scum. Basically, I think all the wagon-changing suggests a lack of plan, and therefore indicates that he's less likely scum. I'm not steadfast in this belief however (especially since there are little things I find scummy on read-through), so if there are any comments on this they would be greatly appreciated.

[DeasVail]

Absta's wagon picked up so fast (5 votes all within 6 posts), that I'm pretty sure he's probably town.

Oh yes, I forgot to say, but I'm pretty sure this has very little to do with alignment.

[DeasVail]

Because it's pretty uncomfortable for scum to quick-wagon town or a buddy.

[DeasVail]

Responding...

Absta:

I don't know what would've been better, but I thought town would bring it up whenever they thought to and not worry about whether it was relevant.

Starbuck:

I don't think I said I hadn't read you thoroughly, and I did read your posts (which is how I thought you were scum...) but probably not as carefully as Sawyer's.

Regarding the Starbuck scumread:

Going over her posts again, I don't really find them as scummy. At the beginning of the day, I thought her posts indicated that she didn't really have reads, and didn't really care about who we lynched, but I disagree with this now. I also thought that her vote on Natalie could easily come from a scumbuddy, which I still agree with, but this in itself is not really scummy.

The reason I was holding out was partly wanting to see if you would be pushing someone's lynch/being proactive and partly laziness.

[DeasVail]

People always hold theories back. My theory, if everyone followed it, could have either won us the game or lost us the game (depending on if I was right/wrong). I was waiting for D2 had I lived.

Usually there's a reason for people holding things back though (e.g. so that the theory doesn't affect scum's behaviour). I don't think there was really any reason for you to wait until Day 2.

[DeasVail]

Ugh, I always do this.

I'm still kind of eh on Starbuck and would prefer a Sawyer lynch.

[DeasVail]

So..

Should I be voting for Absta?

If so, why?

[DeasVail]

@DV

Why would you ask that? Do what you think is right.
----
I'll reply fully later.

Why should I do what I think is right if you're town?

If that is the case, wouldn't your response be something along the lines of "I'm town. Don't vote for me."?

[DeasVail]

851 was an effort to get people on the absta wagon to tell me why I should be voting for him. The point of 855 is still to be determined.

[DeasVail]

Oh, I forgot about that. Sorry.

What do you think of my concerns outlined in 805?

[DeasVail]

Um, I'm wishy-washy all the time, and I honestly didn't see or remember the absta suspicion stuff. If I knew that it was there, I don't think there would be good reason for me to pretend I didn't

[DeasVail]

How did you not see it? Really?

Vote: DeasVail

We aren't here to do your work for you, especially when it was right there in front of your face.

I think this shows that you're not putting much thought into the the players you call scum.

I don't know why I would lie about this as scum. I went back to the page where everyone voted absta, and looked for reasoning before the votes and didn't find anything. I see now that Reck's post came after them, and if there was something substantial before the votes, I might have missed it out of laziness, but in any case, I'm not scum.

I'm also considering changing my vote from Sawyer to Starbuck, because Sawyer seems a little townish. Absta I'm also considering at the moment.

[DeasVail]

I think this shows that you're not putting much thought into the the players you call scum.

And this is not an AtE thing. This is actually something I find scummy about your vote for me.

[DeasVail]

Except that you did see it, because you responded to it directly in #205, which you linked above.

Yes, but I didn't see it when I went back yesterday, and didn't remember about it. I'm pretty forgetful.

And I don't see how you can't agree with the wishy-washy thing. I was wishy-washy on everyone except you that game. DCL? McStab?

Absta:

Respond to 855 please.

Starbuck:

I mean that after all that on Absta you just jump to me after one thing, and without seeming to consider my play as a whole in comparison to absta. Basically, I think you've switched from absta as your preferred lynch to me with little thought.

[DeasVail]

No. A response like that is pointless as it could come from both town or scum.

So does this mean that you are putting thought into whether your actions look particularly town or not?

[DeasVail]

Sawyer:

Do you often reach a level of confidence in you reads similar to your scumread of me?

[DeasVail]

I am interested in lynching Starbuck or Sawyer. If anyone has any particular inclination toward one of them being scum, or think they have good reason for one of them being town, and haven't obviously stated so before (and even if you have you can say it again if you feel like it!), please do so.

[DeasVail]

I think it could be slightly scummy, (and probably more scummy if I'm scum, which I'm not).

[DeasVail]

What did you aim to get out of asking that question though?

[DeasVail]

By the way my last two posts were addressed to Sawyer.

[DeasVail]

What's the gist of the DV case?

I forgot that people gave reasons for Absta-scum...

[DeasVail]

That's actually how I went from no wagon to wagon though...

There's also something about stance on the Natalie wagon.

[DeasVail]

Oh, so it is 908. Good to know.

[DeasVail]

oh wow that's pretty good though

I can see how you could draw that conclusion by deliberately misreading, yes.

But seriously, I'm town, and absta isn't much of a scumread. I'd rather lynch Sawyer or Starbuck at this stage, but I might have a read and decide properly this weekend.

[DeasVail]

I think that Absta is town. I'm never confident in my reads, but if you're town on his wagon please try and consider him properly before deciding to lynch him.

Sawyer:

Did you actually want Reck to replace out? If so, why exactly?

I'm actually starting to feel Starbuck-scum more than Sawyer-scum.

So,

UNVOTE: Sawyer
VOTE: Starbuck

Really, I recommend we don't lynch absta and lynch one of Sawyer/Starbuck instead. If you have other suggestions, feel free. Otherwise, and if you decide not to lynch Absta, please provide thoughts on Starbuck and Sawyer.

[DeasVail]

Hey DV, other than this last page, do you actually have a case on me now or is it still just the OMGUS BS?

When was it ever OMGUS BS.

I don't get scumreads by talking to people. I get them by looking over people's ISOs/reading their posts. However, I'm pretty lazy, so after I looked at the ISOs of you and Sawyer not-very-thoroughly I decided I liked Sawyer as scum more, so didn't look that much further into you.

Of course you

said

you had reads, but I didn't find it believable that you actually had them.

My reason for not giving reasoning on you at that point was partly laziness and not wanting to have to go properly through your ISO, and partly the fact that it wasn't necessary considering I wanted a Sawyer lynch.

I don't see what claiming has to do with anything, I'm not going to claim unless I'm going to be lynched.

I understand the reasoning against me. All I can really say is that my thoughts have been messy this game.

[DeasVail]

I don't see what claiming has to do with anything, I'm not going to claim unless I'm going to be lynched.

Never mind this.

[DeasVail]

I'm not sure why I swayed away from absta.

This is my main problem with Starbuck's most recent posting.

She says that she considered my posting as a whole when voting for me, but not being sure why she swayed away from Absta indicates that she didn't compare her scumreads, and decide which one she wanted to lynch more. It makes it more likely that she voted me because of one thing without really considering things properly.

[DeasVail]

Also, how am I being impatient?

[DeasVail]

I still don't really think Absta is scum.

@Anyone else not interested in voting Absta: We need to decide on a counterwagon. I am most interested in Starbuck, and I don't think I can get Sawyer to vote for himself. Also, I don't think I am the best of lynches. If there's anyone else you want to lynch, maybe bring it up?

[DeasVail]

Unvote

Will decide who to vote for in a bit.

[DeasVail]

I'm not prepared to believe that Reck and Starbuck are scum together at this time.

Problem now is that I don't know who to think is scum. I think it could be Sawyer, but some of his posting makes me doubt that. Reck maybe, but I feel silly with him being the reason why I'm no longer that interested in lynching Starbuck. And apart from that, everyone is some sort of townread.

Reck:

How confident is your townread on starbuck? Do you think she could be replicating what she knows to be her town meta as scum?

[DeasVail]

DV please! These guys are f***ing crazy.

Wait, what am I supposed to be doing?

[DeasVail]

Is it a good idea for absta to claim?

[DeasVail]

Right now, I think Sawyer is the best lynch, but I don't know if that can happen with deadline.

[DeasVail]

VOTE: Starbuck

[DeasVail]

It's a towntell imo.

[DeasVail]

My god this town is so ridiculous.

VOTE: DV

[DeasVail]

DV, what's your opinion on absta?

My opinion was likely town, but I'm just not sure of myself. I'll have another look when I get the time, but I don't understand how he's obvscum.

[DeasVail]

I don't think that is a very good argument Panda...

[DeasVail]

Also scum don't usually leave breadcrumbs for their night kill.

[DeasVail]

Well as far as I know anyway, or is that a thing?

[DeasVail]

I'll probably be voting absta.

[DeasVail]

Why does not knowing the VC stop you from voting Vox?

[DeasVail]

What is Absta at now anyway?

[DeasVail]

Oh yeah. He had something to say, didn't he? May as well wait.

[DeasVail]

I'll give you my thoughts and you can attempt to convince me not to lynch you if you want.

You've been hinting at PR. This adds a little support to your claim, but it's not hard for scum to do, especially when your lynch has looked likely for a while now.

You claim vig after someone mentions the Shamrock thing. You have incentive to do this as scum. You were going to be lynched, someone had pointed out something that made you the likely vig (you may or may not have been planning to claim vig specifically before this) and you could possibly save yourself from being lynched, and at the very worst, out the vig. You were likely to be lynched anyway so it doesn't really matter.

I don't want to talk too much about the possibility of AV-scum and my thoughts in that scenario just in case you are town, but my main problem is that scum could have easily just not claimed and killed you tonight, especially since AV was in little danger of being lynched. Sure, by counterclaiming from his PoV it is probably guaranteeing your lynch, but from scum in such a safe position, it seems unlikely.

[DeasVail]

Don't turn against me Brandi

[DeasVail]

Let's vote Sawyer then?

[DeasVail]

Brandi, why is Reck town?

[DeasVail]

Reck was one of those who held firm about Absta being scum.

That's not hard to do though. I probably would have been the same if I knew absta was scum.

[DeasVail]

I'll probably reread stuff and decide what I think at some point today. I'm pretty lost at the moment.

[DeasVail]

I think you could be.

[DeasVail]

Also not having any clear opinions after all this time?

DV who is your biggest town read?
Who is your biggest scum read?

You were my biggest townread.

Sawyer was my biggest scumread.

This is subject to change.

[DeasVail]

especially when I could've easily kept my vote on DV with zero suspicion for it

Would he say this as town?

[DeasVail]

Eh, no.

But as town trying to work out who's scum, I'm not sure whether you'd be thinking about how you could've kept your vote on me and then say it like you did.

I'm not sure about this, and still have to do my planned reading. I also know that I often make statements about how I would've done something differently as scum, but this feels different to me somehow.

[DeasVail]

Well it doesn't seem to have much to do with what Elmo was saying.

Disregarding that though, would it have been scummy if Panda made sense?

[DeasVail]

Brandi, all my opinions have been thought out.

[DeasVail]

Ok, I've decided I'll most likely lynch Sawyer today, unless someone persuades me to lynch myself or something.

Sawyer, feel free to convince me that you're town. (also you ignored my earlier question )

[DeasVail]

I meant, would what you said have been scummy?

[DeasVail]

Vote: Sawyer

Don't lynch me.

[DeasVail]

Oh cool.

I think it's Reck then.

[DeasVail]

Unvote

[DeasVail]

Scum could easily be Natalie/Absta/Kyle

[DeasVail]

Who did you think the other PR was?

Also Reck, I think Brandi is scummy sometimes, but I some of her posts just seem so town to me, and this with the Natalie-tunnel and their interactions (which were longer than I'd expect between scum) make her very likely town in my eyes.

There's a great difference between how Natalie interacts with Brandi, and how she interacts with Absta also.

I do think you have a point about the voting patterns, and I could be wrong, but I don't think you'd be

that

unlikely to bus as scum. Also consider that Brandi's voting patterns are similar to Sawyer's.

[DeasVail]

I'll have another look.

[DeasVail]

The most town things from a Reck/Absta Double ISO (in my opinion):

-Voting Starbuck (He could have just kept his "Starbuck is town" stance if scum)
-His claims that no one would listen to him on Absta. (I'm not sure whether scum would so boldly claim to be the driving force behind a partner's wagon)
-His big letters.

Scummy:

-914 he says that even if Absta & I are scum together, he wants to lynch absta. I don't know, the way he says it feels like scum distancing to me.
-It could be a coincidence or just because of Reck's lack of activity, but Absta's comments in response to/regarding Reck seem more concise. He thinks of those attacking him negatively, but only mentions Reck as scum as Starbuck's partner. Looking further on, it seems he's never trying to get Reck to suspect him less or call him town, whereas he does with Brandi, and me (not sure about others). This could be deliberate on Absta's part though.
-Basically I don't find him very scummy, but he's less town than the others.

~~

So, the absta/you interactions don't seem particularly remarkable, and if "anyone would bus", why didn't Brandi?

[DeasVail]

Panda, what makes me so town?

[DeasVail]

- I'm not sure what one game I've played with you and been scum, but literally every single game I've played with DeasVail, I've been scum, and that gamecount is getting higher than 10 at this point.

I think it's been 3. (TM, that Newbie during the crash, Destiny Mafia). I can't think of any others, unless RedFF is your alt.

Also you were town in Always On.

I could easily be missing something, so please correct me if there were any other games.

[DeasVail]

Wait, not during the crash. Lost in the crash.

[DeasVail]

I can't confidently tell the difference between Reck's town play and scum play. Most of the time I feel I'm just guessing.

This game it's just I think he's less town than you and Panda, with maybe the odd scummy thing.

[DeasVail]

Why are you only 99.5% town Brandi?

[DeasVail]

I'm always just guessing.

[DeasVail]

You also think scum would openly claim that vigging their scumbuddy is a foolproof plan?

I really don't like this point, because when the plan is to vig Panda, scum probably aren't going to oppose it, and it was unlikely that Natalie's support of it would change the chances of Panda being vigged that much, especially when it looked like Panda wasn't going to make it very far in the game anyway.

But I'd like a Reck lynch.

(and no, I'm not scum setting up suspicion of Panda for when Reck-town is lynched)

VOTE: Reck

[DeasVail]

I think you and I are being setup as the deaths for a scum win. It's partially my fault for not paying more attention after I thought this game was on easy mode.

I know I probably won't make it through LYLO if you're town, but I can try.

[DeasVail]

and DV, I just quoted a post where you said that Panda was likely town in response to that very point I made (which is a point I got from re-reading BK, who has had fairly solid reads all game other than Starbuck)

I think that was different from the thing I quoted. I'm pretty sure my opinion on the vig thing has always been the same.

I think Panda is town, but I just don't agree with that point.

[DeasVail]

DV I really do have a towntell on at this point, because post #1197 where he flat-out says that absta asking Starbuck's alignment is a town-tell comes off as honest, to me at least. I don't see why scum would even post in the thread at that point and stick their neck out even further and risk revealing information. In fact, all of the people who posted after Starbuck's hammer (minus DV) are now flipped and dead, and they're all town except for absta. I think it's more likely the scumbuddy would sit back and let absta keep talking. Also, DV thinking I'm scum/possible scum/suspecting me fits DV-town meta since I've always been scum when he's been town.


So the only person I'm sold on not lynching at this point is DeasVail. I think everyone else has a much stronger case to be absta's buddy and I haven't seen anything presented that makes me think DV is even a candidate.

[DeasVail]

DV I really do have a towntell on at this point, because post #1197 where he flat-out says that absta asking Starbuck's alignment is a town-tell comes off as honest, to me at least. I don't see why scum would even post in the thread at that point and stick their neck out even further and risk revealing information. In fact, all of the people who posted after Starbuck's hammer (minus DV) are now flipped and dead, and they're all town except for absta. I think it's more likely the scumbuddy would sit back and let absta keep talking. Also, DV thinking I'm scum/possible scum/suspecting me fits DV-town meta since I've always been scum when he's been town.


So the only person I'm sold on not lynching at this point is DeasVail. I think everyone else has a much stronger case to be absta's buddy and I haven't seen anything presented that makes me think DV is even a candidate.

[DeasVail]

I don't know how that happened...

[DeasVail]

1540 outlines the things I find notable from most of the game. I'm still not sure, but I also think your recent transperancy stuff is the kind of thing I've done before as scum trying to look town, and seems different from what you'd do in this situation as town. Although I also think it's possible your posting like that as town, that's something that I think is maybe slightly scummy, and you're less town than Brandi/Panda o me (as I've said before).

I don't think anything could happen now that would change my mind about wanting to lynch you today at this point.

[DeasVail]

/posts

[DeasVail]

agree that I would bus as scum. Anyone would.

Also,

I don't care for those huge back-and-forths. I'm just going to say what I think/how I feel, not carefully construct my posts for you to respond to them.

Also, I never meant that only you would bus, just that you wouldn't be unlikely to bus Absta as scum.

I'm sorry if you're town, but I've decided that I want you lynched today. I could change my mind, but I've already said I don't think it's too likely at this stage.

[DeasVail]

I'm not choosing one to be more likely. I considered your bus on absta, and decided that there was a decent possibility that you as scum would have chosen to bus absta at the time that you did. I'm not saying that hardcore buddydefending him wasn't another possibility, but the fact is that you voted for absta, so unless I have reason to believe you most likely wouldn't have bussed absta there, it doesn't really matter.

Ok, I agree that that is laziness on my part. The problem for me is that Brandi and Panda I think are town, and even your latest post makes me doubt that you're scum, but I can't help thinking that it is a possible post for you to make as scum realising that you'll most likely be lynched either today or tommorow, and desperate to come up with ways to look like town. And then I think "Will anything you say not fit into this for me?" Of course if you're town you'd likely post things that you wouldn't as scum, but would I always be too paranoid to realise this?

Another part is my irrational confidence in somehow avoiding lynch in LYLO if you're lynched and town, and being able to choose correctly between Panda and Brandi if that is the case.

[DeasVail]

Well I'm town, so does that mean no one is scum?

[DeasVail]

Hmm, I'm probably going to have another look at Brandi tomorrow afternoon, but I'm still thinking Reck.

[DeasVail]

Oh wow, I just... suddenly.. died.

Anyway, my thoughts are that scum in the order of likelihood are:

Reck > Brandi > Panda

[DeasVail]

Latest reason for Panda-town is going with me even with Elmo saying it must be Reck. It just seems like it would've made more sense as scum to just go for Reck.

Actually the more I think about it, the more it seems that Brandi's hammer comes from town, so maybe have her as more town than Panda.

And actually, I've just realised that whenever I've been in a game with scum-Reck he's won, and I know this is terrible of me, but I'd rather scum-Panda or scum-Brandi win than scum-Reck

[DeasVail]

DV... being uncharacteristically indecisive

wait what?

[DeasVail]

Also, I get lynched all the time and it's no problem Brandi. Well, it isn't if you're town.

PEdit: Yeah I'm town.

[DeasVail]

I get really stressed when I'm scum, but not really as town.

[DeasVail]

Well done Panda and Brandi!