Open 545: Nothing to Hide (Game over!! MAFIA WINS!!!)

[Aegor]

readingreadingreading

[Aegor]

k, I have a saved post that I will put up tomorrow (with quotes and stuff).

Massclaim is happening today.

We have the following confirmed:

HHTTTXXXXX
(X Unknown)

I am justifiably assuming no SK. Therefore the following are options:

HH?TTTTTTT
HH???TTTTT
(? PR)

I find it highly unlikely that there are 0 Ts.


Anyway, massclaim should happen so we can narrow down suspects, e.g. clear Sakura. If all town tells the truth, then we will know precisely what setup we are using because there are only 2 Maf left, making it impossible for scum to fake results. This could mean Sakura is conftown.

Popcorn. Havingfitz starts.

[Aegor]

Whoops. My shower epiphany showed me that scum could fake claim. But still, at this point we should lay all card on the table.

[Aegor]

Massclaim is happening today.

10 slots for 10 town players, silly. The last 3 are guaranteed VTs.

I am VT. Havingfitz is next.

[Aegor]

You are completely and utterly wrong in that.

You must not have read my post carefully enough.

13 players
We may reasonable assume no SK, and we know there are at least 3 scum. Therefore 10 players are town. Since there are only 7 slots for PRs, at least 3 must be VTs. "The last 3" of the ten town players must therefore be VTs. QED.

[Aegor]

TSO, I am a VT, which is why I said that only two of the setups are possible.

And obvobv actions are not claimed until the massclaim is over

[Aegor]

It is just you. If there are no more PR claims Sakura is conftown unless she is scum lying and there is also a town PR lying about being a VT.

[Aegor]

We've had one claim so far, though.

You can't say nonchalantly "if there are no PR claims" when literally no-one has claimed yet.

Of course I can. If there are no PR claims, Sakura is cleared. Unless some PR ate dumb flakes for breakfast.


Scumreads at the moment are vonflame and Salmonella.

[Aegor]

Which is why she is not yet cleared.

[Aegor]

End of D1 made me like him less.

[Aegor]

You should know, T S O, you were the one who called his twilight posts scummy:

This reads scum as fuck, vonflare. It comes off strongly as you knowing bjk's alignment pre-flip.

Anywho, here are the posts that I do not like:

Spoiler:

ummmmm, that was lynch, I believe.

Quickhammer, much? with no reason other than YOLO?

If he flips town, get ready for some questioning.

Why would he only be questioned if bjc flipped town? And the obvious inference here is that Desp's hammer was "worthy of questioning."

But still, i'm interested to see what his alignment was.

pleasebescumpleasebescumpleasebescum

What a surprise his flip must have been to you!

Eh, hes not that scummy. he just hammered. I mean, someone had to.

You are correct. he should not have lynched. But what I meant was that he did it, and that couldn't be helped after the fact.

How was it both inevitable and avoidable?

Are you claiming vig?

I WAS RIGHT!!!

WHAT A SURPRISE!!!!!!

[Aegor]

Non-committal and low activity. My very limited experience with SD suggests that he is lurky and not aggressive as town, but it does feel different here. Even those two are kind of weak reads, tbh. No one is really jumping out at me. Fitz feels off for gut reasons.

[Aegor]

T S O: there are clearly more than 0Ts since several players have claimed VT. They cannot all be maf so we know there are at least 2Ts.


Aegor: VT
Fitz: VT
SD: VT

[Aegor]

Please include actions/results.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

And lol at you getting all pissy that you were asked for details.

Yeah, because your request was really, really bad play. Results should absolutely not be claimed until after the massclaim, making it MORE difficult for scum to fakeclaim because they have even MORE information about the current roles.

[Aegor]

Do people not read the thread? Seriously; TSO and I had this discussion 1-2 pages before.

If we -are- massclaiming, then it goes without saying that under NO CIRCUMSTANCES are actions claimed. None.

TSO, I am a VT, which is why I said that only two of the setups are possible.

And obvobv actions are not claimed until the massclaim is over

[Aegor]

So one of vonflame and Sakura is lying, unless we have an idiotic town players.

Thus one of them must be lynched today and if that player flips town, the other must be lynched tomorrow.

Also, I find it hilarious that scum were not able to coordinate themselves to back up each others' claims.

[Aegor]

Alternatively, we have a suicidal SK.

[Aegor]

VOTE: Havingfitz

We have 3 claims, 2 of which are in conflict. Thus 2 must be false because no SK means 1 or 3 PRs. I find it extremely unlikely that a 1-shot Bus Drive or RB is relevant.

So...yeah.

[Aegor]

Also Fitz claimed VT and then claimed JK after I noted that the scum screwed themselves.

[Aegor]

@Mod: Please clarify whether the results if a Tracker is RBed are distinct from the result if the Tracker tracks someone who went nowhere.

[Aegor]

@Mod: Please clarify whether the results if a Tracker is RBed are distinct from the result if the Tracker tracks someone who went nowhere.

[Aegor]

whoops

[Aegor]

So... Obviously fitz and vonflare both need to die as soon as is possible.

[Aegor]

T S O,

Vote fitz. Claiming VT and then changing to a PR deserves a lynch, regardless of alignment. Fitz's results are just as non-definitive as vonflare's.

[Aegor]

Yeah but fitz was a claimed VT. If he were scum, and safe as a claimed VT, why would he suddenly change his claim to JK?

Either none of fitz, vonflare, and Sakura are lying, or 2 of them are lying.

Why would fitz change his VT claim? Because buddy vonflare messed it up and he needed to salvage the disaster. Duh. Policy lynch right there.

[Aegor]

So you think fitz gambited in the hopes of clearing both himself and vonflare?

And if that's the case, why is fitz the better lynch of the two?

The way I see it, fitz could very well be town telling the truth -- the motivation would be that he wanted to wait to reveal his actual role so that he could catch scum lying.

There is no way I am lynching anyone other than fitz tomorrow.

[Aegor]

Aegor...you have your head up your arse or you're scum. Which is it?

I am not the one who CLAIMS TO HAVE LIED ABOUT BEING A VT and then claimed a PR exactly when it would be to scum's advantage to do so.

[Aegor]

I never said that. I said that the only options for PRs are 1PR or 3PRs. The fact that Fitz claimed VT and then claimed a PR was awful play. And I was never in favor of lynching vonflare when fitz should have been lynched instead.

[Aegor]

So...Sakura is cleared. I guess that is good.

[Aegor]

N1: Kaiveran: goes nowhere (so the VT claim is prob true)
N2: Anxiety: goes nowhere
N3: Albert B. Rampage: goes nowhere (dies)

I'm a jailkeeper.
N1 I kept no one.
N2 I kept Desperado.
N3 I kept Vonflare.

And the scum is among everyone else, who are VTs. Feeling like tool is scum. But I have a 2/3 shot anyway.

[Aegor]

Oh, and both vonflare and fitz are responsible for the worst town claims I have ever seen on this site.

[Aegor]

I will read through this thread today to find out. I am not liking tool's "case" on vonflare at all.

[Aegor]

So, some interesting posts...

Analysis was productive. T S O and SD are the scum. SD has contributed absolutely nothing except late votes on the lynch wagons. T S O has been cagey about SD all game and scumslipped hella during the massclaim, as can be read below.

Spoiler:

Yeah.

Unvote
Vote: Tlachta C

This isn't RVS.

This vote does not change all day. Why not? It also goes nowhere, and T S O never puts any pressure on Tlachta C either.

You're fucking dead, I can hardly buddy you.

Perhaps an attempt by bjc to distance that T S O picked up on? Or a towntell?

vote: toolenduso

I agree with the majority of this, actually, a notable exception being the tool vote.

Soft defense, unexplained.

Kaiveran's #239 gives me more of a towny vibe from him because it gives what seem like genuine explanations for some of my concerns about him. I'll answer your questions in the next post, btw...Then comes more "I'm reasonable and open-minded" language at the end of post #206 and #210. It feels like a kind of buddying in the hopes of decreasing the suspicion on his slot. Then he caps it off with a switch to the biggest wagon, Kaiveran.

VOTE: TvK

Convenient that Kaiveran changes from a scumread to a townread when you need to use TvK's leap onto his wagon as a reason to vote him.

Alright.

VOTE: TvK

Just popping in to hammer, are we?

I read the whole thing, I just find it easier to form opinions while actively participating (and I'm guilty of not participating lately, obviously).

So, you neither are forming opinions nor helping yourself form opinions? Okay...

Anxiety, I'm starting to come around to him, because I remember having the exact same mentality as scum in the past when I was doomed. Kaiveren feels like a mislynch; it's gut mostly, but I don't see most of his posting as coming from a scum mindset. The aggression he's showing off-the-cuff in #22 is town-motivated, and #117 comes off strongly as him not knowing what bjc's going to flip - indeed, just like me, he saw vonflare's actions as very sketchy in light of a Town flip for bjc.

How has this read changed, if at all?

@Salmonella: if you were to vote for somebody right now, who would it be and why?

@TSO: Same question.

Not quite sure what to think, if anything, here.

I think if anything it's a point in the town column for the anorway/SD slot.

Yes, tell is short for scumtell. Are you really trying to use that against me? Also, you missed the point where I said it was a very weak, and in this case, inaccurate tell.

BJC defending me is a null tell because scum can and will go out of their way to manipulate interactions like that for their own benefit.

Or they actually defend each other. It is only a null tell if it can be established that the defending player assumed that others would notice the defense and consider it.

VOTE: vonflare

Great, another badly-justified vote on someone. L-1 this time instead of hammer.

I haven't really looked at SD yet.

Tool is the scummier of the Ts, but to be honest I don't find that pair very scummy on the whole, even though they're substantially linked.

We are?

Hmm...

Bah, I'm going to sheep onto the Kaiveran wagon for the sake of actually having a useful vote

VOTE: Kaiveran

Why this switch?

Why indeed?

Alternatively, all the VT's are dead.

Aegor, work with me here.

If you were actually a VT, you would know that they are not all dead. This is a major scumslip.

I agree vonflare looks really bad atm, but I got a strong feel from him at the end of d1. Do you disagree with this?

No mention of SD.

ugh.

vote: vonflare

If he flips scum, then tool, Salmonella and I are conftown. We work from there.

VOTE: vonflare for obvious reasons.

[Aegor]

Are you fucking kidding me? My setup spec was right on point. It was 100%, entirely correct, which you would have known since you are supposedly a VT which means you knew there were at least 4 VTs which means you knew there could not be 7 PRs. Way to try to stifle all productive discussion.

I am glad I seized the tempo and locked this one down.

[Aegor]

And my quote list has several examples of your cagey was toward SD, and that corpus basically exhausts the interaction between you two.

[Aegor]

Really not liking that T S O's reaction was to attack me instead of attempting to generate discussion.

Your set-up speculation? Correct? You were completely fucking wrong! You didn't even know how many players were playing at one stage!

That setup spec was 100% accurate one my correction in 614 was made. You have yet to point out any flaws, so I assume you agree, even if you do not admit it.

Also no one has explained how the fuck i am cleared, Aegor seems more like buddying me than anything else at this point

See my posts at the end of yesterday. While you may still think I am buddying you, you are definitely cleared.

@TSO: 483, which merited but did not receive substantial follow-up, 690 (not justified).

What about TSO and Aegor coming right out of the gate today pushing against me, then switching to bussing each other once I pointed out that they have associative tells in their ISOs

I did not push you. I did not like your case against vonflame because it felt too strong and opportunistic, but when I re-read the game, I realized that it was consistent with your other cases (which were mostly, sadly directed against town). That was the point of re-reading the game: I was not content with a mere feeling. And I did not actually read your case against me before.

Spoiler: tool's case against my slot

#80: agrees bjc is his top scumread
#117: says Desperado should die tomorrow regardless of how bjc flips.
#139: with first post of day 2, votes anorway
#204: defends pressure on desp by saying he wasn’t the only one uncomfortable with the hammer, votes desp
#271: hops on TvK wagon, is third vote with six needed to lynch
#508: votes SD for gut reasons. This is the second time Kai has voted for that slot, making it seem less likely that they’re partners.
#594: calls ABR being nightkilled “a total framejob” before anybody brings that line of reasoning up. Right before dying, ABR’s top scumreads were myself, TSO and Kaiveran – this looks like kaiveran preemptively telling town that ABR being nightkilled was meant to set him up to be lynched.
Aegor replaces in at this point…

I am obviously not capable of responding to this case against Kai because I do not have any insight into Kai's psychology, which is clearly very different from my own.

#613: one of his first posts, argues that we should massclaim because then town will know the setup so scum can’t fakeclaim – which is wrong, because scum obviously did fakeclaim,

Fakeclaim

PRs

obviously. Scum can always fakeclaim VTs. The problem is that scum know whether there are PRs in the game, and thus can fakeclaim PRs in lylo. That is bad. In fact, that is exactly how my team won my last scum game.

and I feel like that should have been obvious at the time. Also asks for fitz to claim first. This is important because later he starts pushing against fitz pretty hard, making it look like scumAegor could have replaced in, picked a target for mislynch and started pushing him right away.

I found fitz scummy. My suspicion of him was completely justified when he claimed VT and then reneged on his claim after vonflare botched his claim. Your idea of pushing hard does not correspond to my own.

#614: realizes he was wrong about scum fakeclaiming, says that massclaim should happen anyway with no further explanation.

I never realized I was wrong because I never was wrong about the setup; those were the only two options for the setup. I simply made erred in assuming that scum would not be able to fakeclaim PRs, which was not important (to me, at least) anyway. A massclaim in lylo means we could be trying to decide the accuracy of 4 or even 5 PR claims. That seems undesirable to me. Massclaim should

without exception

be performed before lylo. This is textbook.

#664: suspicion on fitz comes to fruition with a vote.
#684 – 708: continues to push on fitz. Even says we should policy lynch him tomorrow (way too late in the game to consider policy lynching as pro-town), and says he’ll vote fitz the next day no matter what, even if vonflare flipped town.

Yes. Fitz's claim was terrible and hella scummy. If vonflare flipped town, the most likely possibility to me was that Sakura and Fitz were both scum fakeclaiming. This would make sense since the maf clearly knew early on that there was probably no SK. Thus a fakeclaim could be delivered early, followed by another as necessary. And surprise, fitz's came after vonflare's, and directly contradicted it.

Vonflare was lynched for his claim, which was no worse than fitz's.

#708: says he was never in favor of vonflare getting lynched, which is kind of a distortion of the truth. He said both vonflare and fitz should be lynched, and even listed vonflare as one of his scumreads in #634.

Total misrep:

And I was never in favor of lynching vonflare when fitz should have been lynched instead.

I was pretty clear that I wanted fitz lynched before vonflare, who proved to be an easy mislynch.

#728: says he didn’t like my case on vonflare yesterday without explaining why.

See above.

He didn’t complain about it at all the day before and agreed vonflare should die (even if after fitz).

Vonflare's flip provided new information.

[Aegor]

Also, SD is like 100% scum. Not only have his actions in this game been 100% scummy, he was town in a game where I was scum, and he is acting nothing like that game (lurky but generally competent). I almost never appeal to meta, but I am telling you, he is scum.

[Aegor]

SD

[Aegor]

Well, two of them

are

scum, so...

Sakura, given that you are the only conftown, your input is particularly useful (if not infallible). What are you thinking, especially about the recent exchanges in the last page or two?

[Aegor]

I'm getting to this tonight, I promise, but Aegor, I find it incredibly hard to believe that after you were townreading me, re-read and immediately called me scum, I wouldn't presume you were lying. Really.

Please quote where I was townreading you. And changing my reads ocmpletely after a re-read is nothing unusual, at least for me.

Could you link to that game please?

Mafia Razzie Awards

[Aegor]

I am talking to you as a player whose vote I want on fitz. I felt better about you yesterday than today after my re-read of the game. And I did not call tool scum in that post. You need to restrict your inferences to what is said. If I am townreading someone, I will say so. If I am scumreading someone, I will say so.

[Aegor]

Not scumreading you =/= townreading you.

[Aegor]

How would scum know whether there are PRs in the game?

Because this is a semi-open setup. Scum know the number of PRs because they know their own roles (e.g. JOAT).

I guess what bothered me most about your push on fitz was that after I pointed out the town motivation behind it you kept acting like he was basically confirmed scum,

It is impossible for vonflare to be scum and both fitz and Sakura to be PRs unless there is an SK. vonflare's claim was correct, so the town motivation was obvious. Yet he was lynched very quickly for specious reasoning as well. The same could be leveled against both of them.

In a massclaim, do not lie. It is anti-town, even if not intended as such. Just as you saw potential town motivation from fitz, I saw potential town motivation in vonflare. And I was not on vonflare's wagon, so...

and I didn't get that because to me it made sense that fitz and Sakura both telling the truth was equally as likely as both of them being fakeclaimed scum. So...why did you think that fitz and Sakura lying was the most likely?

I did not. I thought it most likely that fitz and vonflare were both scum. Read my posts.

OK, the massclaiming before LyLo makes sense. But I don't understand what you mean when you say scum fakeclaiming PRs wasn't important to you...?

It did not matter with regard to whether we should massclaim.

Yes, you said you wanted fitz lynched before vonflare, but you still said you wanted vonflare lynched here:

Obviously that would be contingent upon the flips. Had Sakura died overnight, I would hardly be calling for fitz's lynch today.

Which contradicts you saying "I was never in favor of lynching vonflare."

In an insignificant way.

Aegor, it's time for you to step up to the plate, because if I don't see a concise thought pattern in your case here, I'll start the voting and be damned if I'm wrong.

Shut the fuck up and insulting us with your feigned ignorance.

VOTE: SD

[Aegor]

Meta research is taking a while so I'll post about it later, but in the meantime...Aegor, I looked through Salmonella's posts in the Razzies game you linked to and I felt like it wasn't too far off from his posting in this game. What did you think was different about it?

I think nothing, since there different is manifest. Therefore I

know

. In that game (in which I was scum, btw), SD was somewhat lurky, but actually contributed, made points, established reads, and produced substance. ISO SD in this game. You will find that he has popped in to hammer twice and has produced nothing of use to town. Please let me know if you have any more questions, but the difference seems very, very clear to me.

[Aegor]

So you two were scum?

[Aegor]

Then that means SD is definitely scum.

[Aegor]

What is happening?

I am definitely town.

[Aegor]

So you two are scum and the game is over.

[Aegor]

Well, at least I pegged T S O. And tool's play was questionable as well. SD played terribly, though, so I do not feel bad about my vote.

Town was totally incompetent throughout this game.

[Aegor]

I mean, SD expressed intent to vote me today. I could not take the risk of being mislynched given that he and the two scum would have been a majority. And he was really scummy all game. My bad, but my analysis of the game was pretty thorough.

SD should not have been permitted to live until now, and it is sad that almost all the lynches throughout the entire game were led by town who refused to justify their reads.

[Aegor]

Would you have linked me and tool? I expected one of us to die today.

That depends. Obviously in retrospect I should have voted you, but there were no real connections between any of you three all game beyond the tenuous ones I listed in my megapost, so I cannot say for sure either way.

[Aegor]

it was pretty hard for us, Aegor, we had to run the gauntlet a man down for the entire game.

I ams ure it was hard, but the fact that you head mentally deficient town players pushing completely irrational and unjustified lynches on each other could not have hurt your efforts.

[Aegor]

Had SD not been so blatantly scummy, I would have voted T S O.

[Aegor]

That massclaim was a clusterfuck.

Fitz,

NEVER DO ANYTHING LIKE THAT EVER AGAIN EVER

.

[Aegor]

Uh...you don't know wtf you're talking about. There was nothing wrong with my claims and it had no bearing on the outcome of the game.

Actually, it did. I would have defended you until my last breath had you not lied about your claim. Either two or zero of the PR claims were scum. Vonflare could not have been scum alone. The situation would have been easily rectified had you just been honest about your PR instead of claiming VT. I doubt either of you would have gotten lynched had that been the case.