Open 558: Hope Plus 1 (GAME OVER!)

[Wickedestjr]

Bleh. And here I thought

I

was the one lurking hard.

Vote: Egg

Clearly the three mafia are Egg, RagnarokCometh, and Stabsinthe. They thought they could prolong the confirmation stage by not confirming and chatting it up in their scum qt instead. Unfortunately for them, they didn't realize that the mod was bolding the names of those who had confirmed already - rookie mistake on their part.

Bandwagon gogogo

[Wickedestjr]

You should vote for Egg instead.

[Wickedestjr]

What, is he your scum partner or something?

[Wickedestjr]

@awestfie - I coulda swore I was town. Maybe you misread your role pm.

tn5421, you seem awfully worried about that Armageddon vote. What gives?

[Wickedestjr]

Guys, can we please lynch the scum already? I want to relax and watch the World Cup!

@tn:

what made you think Arm's post was serious?

I didn't think it was more or less serious than normal RVS shenanigans.

So why did you treat the post as if it was serious?

@stabsinthe- bandwagons are good for the town. Pressuring players to get telling reactions, analyzing who got on/off the wagon and for what reasons, and forcing others to take a stance on the bandwagoned player.

Stabsinthe is clearly inexperienced, but my main issue with him is for post 73. He seems to be explaining why he has me as his scummiest read, but he says, "now why did I say you were the towniest?". It looks like he called me towniest when he meant to call me scummiest. Possible scum slip.

More in a second (I'm phone posting)

[Wickedestjr]

Unvote. Vote: Marcrell

More on this later.

[Wickedestjr]

I apologize for not explaining my vote immediately. It was 1:34 am and I just had to get to sleep.

Reasons why I voted for Marcrell;
-It does not seem like he actually has an interest in figuring out who the mafia are. He has voted his suspect and provided several other reads, however, he has not asked anyone any questions, has done nothing to really strengthen any of his reads. You'd think that he'd want to learn more about the guy he's voting at least. But I guess he doesn't.
-I have issue with Marcrell's vote for Stabsinthe. Stabsinthe is clearly pretty inexperienced, so the vote looks really easy. If Stabsinthe is town, then there is no difficulty for scum to vote him for such obvious/basic reasoning. I get the impression that Marcrell voted Stabsinthe because it was the easiest option. Now Marcrell has revealed that his suspicion of Stabsinthe has weakened, however, his vote remains. This seems like a minor fence sit - he has left open all of his options (keep vote on Stabsinthe or switch his vote). It looks like he's given himself room to switch his vote as soon as he notices the momentum switching. But the vote is still there in case others decide to join the wagon.
-It seems like his reads are designed to bother as few people as possible. His three townish reads on Kodama, Shaded, and Egg are all popular town reads iirc. I don't think anyone has town read randommidget yet, but he has been questioned. Marcrell thinks randommidget is 'odd' for the same reason that he was questioned. 'Odd' is a fence sit word - he could say that randommidget is suspicious for the 'odd' behavior or he could say that the 'odd' behavior is odd and just odd (I have seen that before). He hasn't taken a stance yet. I can't help but think that he's waiting to see what the popular stance is before he decides his.

TL;DR - it just seems that Marcrell is trying to slide by quietly without ruffling any feathers plus he hasn't demonstrated a genuine interest in figuring out who scum are

[Wickedestjr]

@stabsinthe- bandwagons are good for the town. Pressuring players to get telling reactions, analyzing who got on/off the wagon and for what reasons, and forcing others to take a stance on the bandwagoned player.

"It's HAMMER TIME!" - Mafia

Is this supposed to be justification for you keeping your vote on me? Because it isn't... Why do you think I would lie about a game strategy opinion?

I was refering to ShadedMelee as the towniest. That was a minor error of mine.

Dammit, another mistake. I meant RagnarokCometh.

I don't believe you were referring to ShadedMelee or RagnarokCometh;

Town > Scum: RagnarokCometh (did not rush lynch) > awestfie (gut) > everyone else > Thomas ('townish vibes') > Wickedestjr

Bandwagon gogogo

Now, why did I said you were the towniest? It is pretty simple. In my experience in previous mafia games (chat, etc), the mafia will just pressure someone to death to get a free quicklynch.

You quoted my post where I encouraged a bandwagon and then proceeded to explain that you think mafia like pressuring someone to death to get a free quick lynch. Clearly you were describing why you scum read me - I encouraged a bandwagon and you thought I was trying to pressure someone to death for a free quick lynch. Why would 'mafia like to pressure someone to death to get a free quicklynch' be justification for your Ragnarok town read? That doesn't make any sense. I think you meant to call me scummiest but accidentally called me towniest.

Lying about what you meant is very suspicious.

And I just noticed that, in the same post, you have Thomas as next to most scummy on the list yet you say you get townish vibes from him. I think you meant to say 'scummish vibes' but messed up again.

[Wickedestjr]

tn5421, why would you random vote twice? And also;

49 is a lot more suspicious than anything else that has happened. Also, I fixed your post tags in the quote.

If you feel that Stabsinthe is suspicious, then why are you still random voting?

[Wickedestjr]

I apologize for my recent inactivity. These last few days have been significantly busier than expected. I'm currently catching up - hope to post and compensate for absence tomorrow.

[Wickedestjr]

Okay, Stabsinthe is very likely town. The doc claim, behavior surrounding the claim, and the confidence in his reads all indicate that he has nothing to hide here. He is fearless.

It is clear that Stabs is town after his claim, however, that doesn't mean I appreciate the claim itself. I am going to suggest some general rules that I think we need to all follow from here on out;

• No claiming your role unless;
  ..........At significant risk of getting lynched.
  ..........You are leading bandwagon with very close deadline.
  ..........We are massclaiming
  ..........Your claim confirms someone as scum or a townie that's about to get lynched.
  
• No speculation regarding who is what role.
  
• Power roles, please try to play the same way that you would as a vanilla townie. I once strongly suspected a player only to learn that they were a tracker trying to avoid the nightkill. Had they played normally, I probably would not have suspected them. I don't want a repeat of that here.
  
• No self voting.

I think that these rules are reasonable. This premature doc claim seems to be more of a benefit to scum than to town, even though it almost clears Stabs. I would like to prevent future incidents such as this.

Also, I would like to point out that the descriptions of role-related behavior are all very out dated. Those wiki tells were good many years ago, long before I had even heard of mafia. They're almost useless now, because everyone knows about them.

(More later)

[Wickedestjr]

Oh and by the way, Thomas is at L-2. I am pointing this out so that nobody can

accidentally

put him at L-1.

[Wickedestjr]

@Wickedestjr

I thought you were town but that post just asks for town cred and doesn't scum hunt.

I'm not done posting tonight. I just had to go somewhere. Not asking for town credit, just trying to make sure nothing else detrimental/foolish happens - it wasn't a scum hunting attempt. And when I said "more later" I meant it.

[Wickedestjr]

Very bad move guys. I am, again, disappointed. Thomas's play doesn't resemble that of scum, it resembles the play of someone that doesn't care but "not caring" =/ scum.

Marcrell is still very suspicious.
Ragnarok, Stabs, awest, tn, and Thomas are probably all town.
Neutral on the rest.

Tomorrow we need to stop making foolish decisions - I think we are off to a horrible start. If we don't get our crap together, it might just be an easy win for scum. No more premature claims, no more quick lynches without claims, no more silly mistakes.

[Wickedestjr]

Please let's not end this day the same way we ended yesterday. Thomas was being unhelpful and anti-town yesterday but I didn't sign up for this game to lynch unhelpful or anti-town players. Unhelpful or anti-town =/ mafia. For example, what would Thomas's motivation be to not defend himself if he were scum? Remember that scum's sole goal in this game is to not get lynched - if anything, Thomas has more motivation to defend himself as mafia. The case against him was too weak for such an early lynch and I would've loved to post some of my thoughts before the hammer. Lynches are precious and limited so we need to make the most of them. In general, if there are people

on the bandwagon

that aren't ready for the lynch to go through, then you know it's premature.

TL;DR - Quick lynches are bad

[Wickedestjr]

I still believe that Marcrell is mafia.

Vote: Marcrell

Just read him in isolation, please. It really looks like his goal is to appease us. His town and scum reads all seem to agree with the popular opinions and he neutral reads anyone if it's unclear what the consensus is. He only started asking questions and demonstrating an interest in scum hunting once I called him out on it. Even so, I think too many of his posts involve reads and explanations behind reads - as if he feels obligated to post reads - rather than independent efforts to develop his reads. Finally, he has exhibited one of my favorite scum tells - IIoA = Information Instead of Analysis. He exhibits this tell in post 126 when giving his Thomas read;

YankeeReaper asked me a while back my thoughts on Thomas, so I may as well respond now.

He seems to have reasons like me, general and unspecific.

Took a lot from a joke and changes his vote, might have reconsidered his stance in the game and used that as an excuse to change it.

Marcrell is asked to provide his thoughts regarding Thomas and, instead of giving a read, he simply mentions facts about Thomas's play. He provides information about Thomas instead of analyzing him. I'm not sure how the bolded is supposed to help.

You should all consider voting Marcrell - I think I've got something here!

[Wickedestjr]

Can't rebute most of what Wicked said, I have a major fence sitting tendency.

"Fencesitting" was only a fraction of my case against you. If you can't refute the rest, then maybe you could at least explain your thought process throughout the game?

So I was going to sheep Wicked on Marcell but Marcell's response looks calm and genuine. He isn't panicking with "oh crap I'm caught". It's more like he's trying to legitimately say that that's just how he plays.

Not sure how you find it genuine - it was literally one sentence... Plus it only addressed about 20-25% of my case against him - so even if it WAS genuine, that doesn't mean he's town - it just means that 20-25% of the case was wrong. And calmness isn't necessarily a town tell. If anything, I would expect Marcrell to respond calmly as scum because he wouldn't want to infuriate or attract attention. He's smart enough to know that a nervous/panicky response would look bad and it's not hard to fake calmness; especially in just one sentence.

Marcrell's ISO looks null to me. I really do not understand the case against him.

What don't you understand?


I still feel good about the reads I provided in post 250. The next two or three RL days will be spent rereading the 'neutrals'.

[Wickedestjr]

His vote for you feels a little weird, I will give you that, but his explanation makes sense. My read is leaning town.

I'm pretty confident in my Marcrell case though. I really think I've got something here and you should vote for him.


TN - what do YOU think of Marcrell?

[Wickedestjr]

Why does it look like he was hoping someone would hammer?

[Wickedestjr]

That question was directed at Armageddon; random ninja'd me.

[Wickedestjr]

Prod received.

Sorry guys. I've been alternating between games and didn't realize it had been so long since I last posted in this one - coulda swore I posted yesterday in fact. I intended (and still intend) to post later tonight.

[Wickedestjr]

Wicked; what your opinion on my armageddon wagon? What're your thoughts on tn?

I actually like your Armageddon vote. I don't see anything particularly townish from him to counter the suspicious things you pointed out in post 217. If I can't convince anyone else to vote Marcrell, then I would consider voting Armageddon. I agree that some of his posts have come across as artificial.

tn, on the other hand, is probably town. Aside from the weird awest vote, I don't see a scum motive for anything that he has said or done. You can't say that he is trying to appear pro-town and that is the scum's only objective.

[Wickedestjr]

TN is at L-1.

Somebody please unvote. I don't like this wagon and I certainly don't want a repeat of yesterday. Tn is probably town.

[Wickedestjr]

Unvote.

After reading Marcrell's last few posts and Shaded/Egg's defenses, I'm willing to consider the possibility that I'm wrong here.

@Wickejstr I can't particularly defend myself because most of what you say is true. I'm a horrible player that's trying to improve.

You're not horrible, maybe you're just inexperienced - mafia is a difficult game. If you are town, then my advice is that you just start paying more attention if you're not already - you'll naturally improve. Reading two or three other completed games that you weren't in could also help. If you have the extra time on your hands then reading a game with or without the knowledge of who the scum are can help. Getting it right or wrong a few times will help you develop your own tells. That's what I did when I first started playing and I'm glad that I did.

Could you at least explain what thoughts are in your mind? That would help me read you.

Your last line sounds very salesmany. Most votes come with an explanation. Yours does, and also with the "You should all consider." Like just pointing out your reasons isn't enough, that you need to expressly point people to the lynching option of me. Difficult to explain, but I don't like it,

From my past experience, voting my suspect and making a case rarely gets the support that I want. People have a tendency to ignore my votes/cases. I usually have to ask people to join me. Maybe it is salesmany, but with good intention: I found you suspicious and wanted people to vote for you.

On a side note, I like that Marcrell made this comment. It was his own original opinion and regarding me, someone that people seem to town read.

[Wickedestjr]

Hahahaha. You made absolutely no effort trying to find the scum yesterday, you had plenty of time and all you did is vote opportunistically; if you honestly wanted information, you would've said that you wanted to put Thomas at L-1 (without actually doing it) and asked him to explain his play; which is the total opposite of what you did. That way, he knows that he'll be close to being lynched if he doesn't start giving reads / explaining some of his posts/thoughts, etc.

Going off this logic, couldn't you have also said that you wanted to hammer Thomas and ask him to explain his play? That would provide even more incentive for him to start giving reads and explaining his posts/thoughts. Instead we got nothing from Thomas and he was mislynched without a claim, unexpectedly.


I'm not Aether. It's probably Thomas.


Not sure who I want to vote right now. There are a few players that I still need to give a closer look.

[Wickedestjr]

Marcrel, do you think randomidget is mafia? How strong is your suspicion of him?

And, if you seriously believe my vote is "weird," wicked; you honestly need to re-read my game and you'll see that it's far from that. The fact that you think tn's town is what's "weird" here because tn has failed to do anything even remotely townie this game; and on top of that, when I did try and get him to talk about the things I've scum-read him about all he had to say is one-liners in an attempt to discredit my read on him. There's no possible way you can think this guy's town.

I don't think I ever said your vote was weird. I just really don't like the vote.

TN is unhelpful and anti-town, but neither of those traits equate to scum. I think he hasn't done anything 'remotely townie' because he doesn't care about how he's perceived. I think he's defending with one-liners because his objective is not survival. The only thing that distinguishes the case against Thomas from the case against tn (IIRC) is the contradiction which I have admitted is weird. The contradictory vote for you is the one thing giving me pause in town reading him. I'm not 100% certain he's town, that's just the direction I'm leaning. Look, I have played many games here and have witnessed several/many players that don't do anything and don't care about the game - many/most of them flip town and tn reminds me of them. Given that you were wrong about Thomas, you shouldn't be 100% certain that tn is scum.

[Wickedestjr]

Would be comfortable lynching in [Arma/Yankee]. Both are newbies and flaking *is* a scumtell for newb players.

I really don't like this post. This is your first indication of who you suspect ever since day 2 started and it is lazy/easy. Here's why it is lazy/easy;
-you are attacking newbies, the least threatening of targets
-you are attacking people who you believe are inactive, not here to defend or refute your vote
-you are proposing that we blindly follow something that I'm not even certain is a tell
-you are ignoring everything that has been said or done by the people who

are

posting

In your first post of day 2

you said that all votes on Thomas's bandwagon should be considered equally

, but then you proceed to consider none of them at all.

Armageddon and Yankee weren't even on Thomas's bandwagon

. So it's weird that you say all of Thomas's voters be considered, ignore all of his voters, and propose lynching two players that weren't voting him.

What's stopping you from voting right now? What are your thoughts on the players that are actually posting - any game specific thoughts?

Also you were voting Marcrell yesterday. You don't necessarily need to vote him now, but it's weird that you've completely ignored him. Do you still think Marcrell is suspicious?

Vote: Kodama

[Wickedestjr]

Marcrel

, do you think randomidget is mafia? How strong is your suspicion of him?

randomidget

, my page 1 play was meant to be odd.

[Wickedestjr]

Just vote me already so I can not be playing multiple games.

Dude if that's how you really feel, then you should have replaced out a long time ago. It's not fair for any of us that you have neglected this game. The worst part is that I really think you're town but you've been nothing more than a thorn in town's side. You haven't been putting any effort in. Don't join a game if you don't have the time. Regardless of if you replace out, you should switch your vote to Kodama. awest isn't getting lynched today, your the only one voting her, and you're not doing anything to get more votes anyway (so you're insane if you think she's getting lynched today).

This tn bandwagon is almost exactly the same as the Thomas bandwagon (plus the contradiction). We already mis-lynched a townie that didn't care yesterday. I don't want to waste another one on the same type of player. We only have three strikes in this game barring doc protects, we've already wasted one and I sure as heck don't want to waste a second one. I think if we lynch tn that's our second shot gone.

tn doesn't care and he's made it obvious that he doesn't care. He should replace out. Kodama doesn't care but they're at least trying to demonstrate that they care --> that's how scum plays. PLEASE, unvote, switch your vote to Kodama. I think that slot is scum. I don't think tn is.

[Wickedestjr]

Almost forgot:

USA's moved on to Round of 16!!!

Now they have to beat Belgium.

BTW the last few pages have convinced me that Egg is town. Town list: Me, awest, Egg, Ragnarok, and tn. That leaves: Arma, Shaded, Boon, random, Kodama, Marcrell

Egg you should really return your vote to Kodama, though. If we're going to

waste our

lynch

on

tn today, then could we at least test out a Kodama wagon first? It might be interesting to see what happens. We have six and a half days left, let's make use of some of it at least.

Ragnarok

, what do you think of Kodama right now?

[Wickedestjr]

Ughhh.... I don't think he's scum, though.

A tn scum flip would certainly help "open the map", but the more likely town flip doesn't really help us at all.

[Wickedestjr]

I don't really think Kodama has really scumtold at all.

1:

You're pushing on him for being inactive - which he's already explained - and

2:

for suggesting lynching the people that most people wouldn't have a problem with lynching. This isn't really the case since Neither arma or yankee/his replacee have any sort of wagon on them right now.

1. Actually, NO. My case has nothing to do with Kodama's activity.
2. Wrong again. My point isn't that Kodama suggested lynching people that others wouldn't mind lynching. My point is that Kodama suggested lynching easy targets. By 'easy' I don't mean that there is support, I mean that there is low risk in targeting them.

TL;DR - you have misrepped half my case and completely ignored the other half

Thank you for your consideration

[Wickedestjr]

Marcrel, do you think randomidget is mafia? How strong is your suspicion of him?

Third time asking

[Wickedestjr]

Unvote. Vote: Armageddon

More later.

[Wickedestjr]

Mod: I will have limited access July 1st through July 16th.

I will still be able to follow the thread and post, but I will be on vacation visiting family. So there will be days during which I am preoccupied. Also, I may have trouble getting to a computer; I could be limited to phone posting at times. Nevertheless, I'll try to contribute as much as I can during the next two weeks.

BTW, I'm sorry for not posting today - didn't realize how much work I had to do outside of trip preparation.

[Wickedestjr]

I'm just a poor boy. I need no sympathy.

Because I'm easy come, easy go

I hate to say I told you so, but... I told you so. And now this is the worst possible situation we could be in, two power roles gone and no scum dead. We CANNOT mislynch today otherwise we'll end up in LyLo. I'm rereading.

[Wickedestjr]

awestfie, that was a bad gambit. Never try that again please. It would have worked if tn was mafia, but the justification for that suspicion wasn't there. He may have been lazy and unhelpful but now he's a dead townie and we lost our day 2 lynch - not worth it imo.

On a side note, I have to say that I actually share your weak suspicion of ShadedMelee. Several players have town read him, but I haven't seen anything from him that he couldn't be faking as mafia. He has been posting a lot and putting effort in, but I can't remember him taking any unique or original stances. He hasn't ruffled any feathers - he has flown under the radar despite his higher post count, and that bothers me.

I still feel good about the town reads that I gave yesterday. That means scum should be among: Armageddon, Catastrophe, Kodama, Marcrell, randomidget, and ShadedMelee. I still need to read these players in isolation; I will probably be able to narrow it down soon. I will also look at the lynch votecounts and player interactions (maybe I can take a guess at the entire scum team). More on that later, because I probably won't be finished today or tomorrow.

Two other things;
1. I was surprised to see Boonskiies replace out and I am curious if that's an alignment indicator.
2. I'm going to check Ragnarok's isolation before I do anything else, because there has to be some indication. He didn't investigate Thomas because Thomas was already lynched before n1. He didn't investigate Stabs because Stabs was obvtown. He didn't investigate tn5421 because, IIRC, he voted tn5421 and then changed his mind later (he wouldn't have changed his mind during day 2 if he knew tn's alignment at start of day). He didn't investigate himself. So that means his n1 investigation was on somebody that's still alive right now. We might be able to confirm somebody here.

[Wickedestjr]

Okay I'm still assuming Ragnarok investigated one of the players still alive.

The options: Wickedestjr, randomidget, Egg, ShadedMelee, Catastrophe, awestfie, Kodama, Marcrell, and Armageddon

On day 2, he said that Armageddon was his strongest scum read. So, if he got a guilty on somebody, it would have been on Armageddon. Any other player that he implies suspicion of must not have been investigated. He voted random and implied slight suspicion of Kodama. So I don't think he investigated random or Kodama. After reading post 380, I don't think Ragnarok investigated Armageddon either. He would have given his result or kept his vote on Armageddon if he investigated Armageddon.

That leaves: Wickedestjr, Egg, Shaded, Catastrophe, awest, and Marcrell

to be continued...

[Wickedestjr]

VOTE: Armageddon

Feel strongest on pursuing this right now.

The reasons I have him as mafia are non-disputable

and where others have room to defend themselves, he doesn't.

This was Ragnarok's first post of D2.

We feel like there's a good chance this was a result crumb. We're still reading up though.

I noticed this too. This post, on its own, seems like a guilty result on Armageddon. But post 380 seems to contradict that theory;

Obstinately keeping my vote on Armageddon wouldn't have achieved anything since he wasn't posting; people that are posting can react/interact with you while you're voting them. People that aren't, cannot. That being said I did say that Armaggedon is a read I doubt I'd be going back on. It's still better to try and produce content than votecamp.

This is a weird quote if Ragnarok did have a guilty on Armageddon. Why would reactions/interactions from Armageddon be necessary if he knew that Armageddon was mafia? And he said it was a read he doubted that he'd be going back on - not a read that he knew he wouldn't be going back on.

The vote switches yesterday also seem to contradict the idea that Ragnarok investigated Armageddon. If I were in his spot, I would have pushed for the lynch and then claimed my guilty if nobody helped.

There is a good chance that Armageddon is scum anyway, and an even greater chance that I'll vote him, but I'm not convinced that Ragnarok had a guilty on him.

[Wickedestjr]

Posts 356 and 466 also contradict the idea that Ragnarok investigated Armageddon, imo. In post 356, he apologizes to Armageddon for that mistake. Not sure that he would apologize to the guy he had a guilty result on. In post 466, he says that he's "fairly sure" that Armageddon is mafia.

I'm rereading Ragnarok's iso. I had missed the bottom of post 402 where he mentions something suspicious in Marcrell's play. So, he didn't investigate Marcrell.

Also, quickhammering is anti-town, it's not a scumtell. Moreover, I doubt mafia are too eager to do it, so I'd place it - at this point - as null.

This "null" read doesn't seem like a stance he would take if he had gotten an innocent result on awestfie. He also said before the Thomas-flip that he didn't believe the quickhammer was a scumtell. He probably didn't investigate awestfie n1 either.

That leaves: Me, Egg, Shaded, and Catastrophe. I believe he got an innocent result on one of these four slots.

However, at this point, I can only speculate. He town read Egg and Shaded, null read me, and null/leaning scum read Catastrophe's predecessor's predecessor. He asked Egg and I for our thoughts/reads, but he completely ignored Shaded and Catastrophe yesterday. I am inclined to say that he wouldn't investigate one of his town reads - what motivation would there be? So he

probably

investigated Catastrophe or me.

Both of those options make sense. It would make sense if he investigated Yankee (Catastrophe's predecessor's predecessor) because Yankee was V/LA for most of day 1 and Ragnarok was getting a bad vibe from him. However, posts 263 and 267 both seem to demonstrate a lack of interest in that slot. On the other hand, he could have investigated me because he null read me - maybe he didn't think he could get a read on me.

I'm not leaning either way at this point. However, it is unlikely that I will vote for Catastrophe today and I think we can learn more once we get more flips.

[Wickedestjr]

Boonskiies requested replacement even though he wasn't putting any effort in to begin with. It's clearly not because he doesn't have time on his hands. I can tell because he wasn't putting effort in, never promised that he would put effort in, and he's still active on the site, posting in his other games. It must be because he lost interest - this game was his lowest priority and he didn't replace out anywhere else.

I skimmed through the posts of his only completed game where he was mafia. In that game he posted frequently and made an effort to defend himself. He was interested in said game even though he was at L-1 upon replacing in. That play style looks like the exact opposite of his play style here. Granted, he wasn't at L-1 upon replacing in here, but he never tried to appear pro-active or townish. The closest thing was his "Am not scum" post.

That slot is probably town.

[Wickedestjr]

Didn't get to finish all the analysis I planned to do, but glad to wake up to a self hammering scum.

Catastrophe, after rethinking, you might be right. I would have claimed the guilty if I were in Ragnarok's position because I think that one maf for one cop is worth it. But by the looks of it, Ragnarok has never been cop before and only has two completed games under his belt - he either didn't know what to do or his strategy differs. Armageddon flipping mafia strengthens the theory that Ragnarok guiltied him. I am now comfortable making that assumption.

I am growing more confident in my Shaded suspicion and would love to see him lynched tomorrow. He makes sense as Armageddon's partner.

Plus, post 520 is a scum post. It looks like he knows Armageddon is mafia.

As a side note i have to say that i did not like wicked's position on this. 489, 492 and 493 looks like a distraction attempt by emphasizing a town-result rather than an obvious guilty-result. It is noteworthy that he does not mention Rag's 272 until catastrophe points out that.

This is a misrep. I was not emphasizing a town-result, I just thought that Ragnarok had investigated somebody else. If Ragnarok had gotten a town-result on Armageddon, then obviously he wouldn't have voted him yesterday. And I already said that I thought Armageddon was mafia regardless of Ragnarok's investigation choice - I voted Armageddon yesterday and expressed intent to vote him today. I didn't mention post 272 despite noticing it, because it was contrary to what I believed at the time and I didn't think it was very telling - there was no reason for me to mention it.

I was reading wicked as a strong town, and i know most of players was the same, but two consecutive mislynches tells me that we are misreading one of our strong town reads. It can be egg or wicked, more on this will follow after i iso them.

This is bad logic. Firstly, I was opposed to both lynches so not sure how the fact that we mislynched twice would indicate that I'm scum. Yesterday, I made 5-10 posts arguing that we shouldn't have voted tn. Secondly, Egg voted Thomas and tn, but his vote for tn was for the exact same reasoning as your's - that he thought awestfie was a cop with a guilty. Thirdly, you were on both mislynch bandwagons so it is weird that you would say this.

[Wickedestjr]

Kodama should be replaced. I vote to eject them, even if they're still on site. Stop joining games if you can't handle all of them: that's common courtesy.

I think it's Shaded + one of {Kodama, Marcrell, randomidget}. Gut says Marcrell, but I'm really not sure at this point. Maybe I'll do some analysis later today if thread is not locked yet.

[Wickedestjr]

Prod received. I'm still vla and these last few days have been the busiest of my time away. I apologize for my inability to contribute by this point and hope today or tomorrow permits some free time.

[Wickedestjr]

It was very obvious that Ragna got a guilty result on Arma, and claiming that it was not is either a scum distraction or a bad town play.

It wasn't obvious to me when he switched his vote during the day - if I were a cop with a guilty, I would keep my vote on that person all day long. Plus the only scum motive for me to "pretend Arma's not confscum" is if I was trying to protect Armageddon. But I already made it clear that I was likely to vote Armageddon regardless of Ragnarok's result. So I'm not sure why you think I'm lying about this.

"Hey look he acts like he know the scum", is not a valid defense. We all act on our viewpoints, and he was conf-scum to me. If we follow your logic, than Catastrophe is scum too, because he pointed that Arma is conf-scum in his post 526. Try again.

Armageddon was likely scum, but not confirmed scum. And please reread - Catastrophe called Armageddon confirmed scum AFTER Armageddon had claimed mafia and self-hammered. You called Armageddon confirmed scum before he claimed.

And for the second part, please point out where i told that you were on the mislynch wagons.

You never said that.

I was telling that, if we mislynched two times, than we may be looking at wrong directions, thus being manipulated by scum either on-wagons or off-wagons. You and Egg was the two popular town reads, so it worths looking at you. I saw many scum defending the mislynch candidate to gain town credits. And you may be one of them.

This doesn't make any sense. First, you say that you think scum have been manipulating the town and then you suggest the possibility that I defended the mislynch candidates to gain town credit. Those two ideas are contradictory though. Plus, I don't think you can accuse me of either - I am not scum manipulating town because I played no part in either lynch and I think I put more than enough effort into defending tn for it to be a town cred attempt.

More later

[Wickedestjr]

5: Hurry to make a lynch. Also defends stab.
9: Tries to make tn to vote Stab.
11: Decides Stab is town! ---- Contradicts with 8-9. Sudden change in opinion (How the hell did i miss this before)
24: Unvotes Marcrell per my defense of him. --- Another sudden change of opinion. Looks too easy.
30: Finds egg is town, pushs Egg to vote for Kodama. Also asks Ragna about Kodama. --- Changes his target to Kodama here.
33: Asks Marcrell about randommidget agaaain (3) . Why does he keep asking same thing to Marcrell. Does not tell any suspicion about randommidget.
34: Votes Arma -- Another sudden change of target, after Ragna's post. This may be a bussing attempt when he saw the Cop's crumb.
37: Frustrated with awe's gambit. Suspicion of me. --- Another change of target.
37-38-39-40-41: Finds boonskies town because he was replaced. Claims that Ragna did not have a guilty result. --- Looks extremely suspicios to me. Cop crumb was too obvious. Also doing this in 4 consecutive posts makes it more artificial.

5: The "can we please lynch scum already" comment was a joke and clearly referring to the mod's comment in post 80. And I wasn't defending Stabs- if you read my post again, you'll see that I actually pointed something out which I found suspicious about Stabs. You clearly ignored context, didn't read clearly.
9: Not true.
11: The change in opinion is a result of Stabs' claim. DUH. I suspected Stabs before he claimed, but it was clear that he was town after he claimed.
24: There were three scum in the game. Not gonna focus all my energy on one person when I could be wrong, when people disagree, and when there are two or three other players I could target instead.
30: Note that that's the first time I changed my target.
33: I keep asking Marcrell the same question over and over again because Marcrell never answered the first two times. DUH. What am I just supposed to drop the question because I don't get a response?
34: Note that that's the second time I changed my target. Also, wasn't the supposed cop crumb at the beginning of day 2 - if I noticed, then why would I have waited until then to vote? I wouldn't have.
37: Third change in target.
38-41: Again, it wasn't obvious to me when he changed his vote. In general, when somebody does something completely contrary to what I'd expect, I'm hesitant to call it confirmation.

Analysis:

1) Too many and sudden target changes. Stab, Marcrell, Randommidget (possibly?), Kodama, Arma, Shaded. He looks like creating suspicions around while trying to stay off-the-wagon on cases created by others. His reasons are generally generic, crap and does not seem geninue to me.
2) His Arma vote when tn lynch seemed imminent looks like a distancing attempt (as he realized Ragna is Cop and had a guilty result on Arma at that point)
3) His over-explained "how Ragna did not have a guilty result on Arma" is a desperate attempt to save Arma at last minute.

1) Firstly, I never really targeted Stab or random. Secondly, there is nothing wrong with changing targets especially when I didn't change my target that often. I try to spread my attention by asking questions, voting different people and expressing suspicion because I need to develop reads on everyone. That's how the game is played. I'm not doing anything wrong. Thirdly, my reasons are not crap - it is crappy how you now find them bad and suspicious. Convenient timing.
2) This is ridiculous. You think I knew Ragnarok was cop before he had even died. And you think I voted Armageddon towards the end of day 2 because of a supposed cop crumb at the beginning of day 2. Unrealistic.
3) I wasn't trying to save Armageddon. I made it clear that I was going to vote Armageddon regardless.

[Wickedestjr]

TL;DR
-You are ignoring context, not reading carefully.
-You are misrepping me.
-You are accusing me of trying to save Armageddon when I voted him day 2 and intended to vote him yesterday.
-You are grasping at straws.
-You are calling me scum for changing targets and spreading my attention when neither is bad.
-OMGUS, coincidentally I'm your top suspect just two/three days after I express intent to vote for you.

Vote: ShadedMelee

You are the scum here.

[Wickedestjr]

I will not be voting myself, awest, or Catastrophe today. I think Kodama's replacement should arrive, catch up, and post thoughts before we lynch today. It is day four and we've gotten nothing from that slot, that's a problem that I don't want spanning to day 5 as well.

randomidget could be mafia. Catastrophe brought up a good point against him with regard to his change in stance on Armageddon. I also noticed that his reads suspiciously mirrored my own at one point. The only reason I haven't given that slot much attention is because I think their play is similar to Marcrell, but I seriously doubt they are both mafia.

I have some rereading to do. Bandwagons to look at, scum posts to look at, interactions to check. It won't be completed for a few days, but I really think we should wait for Kodama's replacement to arrive and contribute.

[Wickedestjr]

This is a lie. I am the one that expressed suspicions on you first at 520. As soon as i posted this, i became your primary suspect (528) You are the one that OMGUS'ed me.

Actually you are wrong again. I expressed suspicion of you in my post 488 which came before your 520. I was first to express vote intent as well - I said I planned to vote you right as day 3 ended. You called me voteworthy at the beginning of day 4.

You tried to save Armageddon. You tried to convince town that Ragna did not have a guilty on Arma, claimed he got an innocent result while it was obvious that was not the case. I won't let you get away with that.

This is a HUGE misrep. I was not trying to save Armageddon - I made it clear that I was likely to vote him regardless of Ragnarok's result. You keep ignoring that.

And I NEVER said that Ragnarok got an innocent result on Armageddon nor did I even suggest the possibility - obviously he didn't get an innocent result because he voted Armageddon... DUH

. How many times do I have to say it before you actually comprehend correctly? At first, I didn't believe Ragnarok investigated Armageddon at all so I was curious to see if he got an innocent result on somebody else. I wasn't trying to protect Armageddon - I probably would have voted for him (if he hadn't already been lynched).

[Wickedestjr]

I am not ignoring context

, i am ISO'ing. ISO shows only your posts,

so some context loss is inevitable

.

Yeah but if you want to make a fair/justified/accurate argument, you must take the context into account. Context loss is not inevitable - you can simply take the extra time to see or think about why I said the things that I said. If you were town then I'd think that you'd want to do that. Scum don't care about context, town should though. E.g. did you not notice that I asked Marcrell a question and didn't get a response the first two times? Because you had issue with me asking the question three times...

Those two bolded phrases contradict each other btw.

I am not misrepping you, i am unleashing you.

What the bleep does that mean? You're misrepping me (e.g. the bolded portion of my last post).

Voting your scumbuddy when there was no real pressure on him, or just expressing intent does not mean anything. Important part is what did you do when he seemed like he will be lynched. Answer: you defended him, and you did not vote.

Actually, voting somebody that has no pressure is the exact opposite of defending. Day 2, I was trying to help start a wagon on Arma that wasn't already there. I never defended him - I called him scum but simultaneously believed that Ragnarok didn't investigate him.

Changing targets is bad, because it shows you are trying to spread suspicions around while trying to stay off-wagon.

Trying to spread suspicions around isn't bad. There are (were) three scum in this game, so I'm not going to focus all my energy on one person. That's not how this game is meant to be played.

[Wickedestjr]

Sudden interest in lynching random is noteworthy here. I dont remember he expressed any suspicion about random before. As soon as i point out a {wicked,random} team, wicked decided random could be scum here. Of course it could be due to Cat's posts but still alarming. Noted.

I had random as a null read for days 1-3. Catastrophe's point regarding random's stance on a known scum is the most interesting thing thus far. I didn't suspect him earlier because there was no reason to suspect him earlier (or at least I didn't like any of the reasons anyone had brought up before). It was a null read.

[Wickedestjr]

Stop you two

I'm not going to stop. Shaded's vote for me is ridiculous and I think it's indicative of a scum alignment. So of course I'm going to explain why.

-When Ragnarok flipped cop I originally didn't think he had guiltied Armageddon. I simply thought he had investigated somebody else. Shaded keeps saying that I was trying to argue Ragnarok inno'd Armageddon but that is absolutely not what I was doing. There's a fine line between saying he didn't investigate Arma and saying he inno'd Arma. Shaded has ignored that fine line.

-Shaded voted me based on his ISO read of me. But he ignored important context. He admitted to ignoring context as if it was ok and there was nothing he could do about it. (He said it was inevitable). A townie interested in developing a read on me would take everything into account before making accusations. He didn't. Which leads me to believe he's just making accusations with the intent of a mislynch.

-He completely ignored Armageddon until he thought that he was confirmed scum. It was clear that he knew Armageddon was scum when he voted him.

-He has coasted by with people town reading him, flown under the radar, supported both mislynches, not gotten in any arguments. Nothing memorable from him before today.

I have no idea how people are town reading him.

Catastrophe for his most recent post or awestlife

Have you even read the thread yet? Those slots are probably both town. I see why you don't like Catastrophe's last post but I think it's a town tell actually (why would they blatantly do that as scum?). Your reason for suspecting awest is weak too. It is not between those two.

[Wickedestjr]

awest, are you willing to vote Shaded?

MARCRELL, WHAT'S YOUR READ ON SHADED RIGHT NOW?

Mod: Given that we've had two slots replaced and I was on a long V/LA (and we make up half the player list), would it be possible for us to have a little extra time for today?

[Wickedestjr]

Prod dodge. I'll get to this game later today.

Given that it is now LyLo, I think a doc claim is in order. The doc is no longer of use to us and one confirmed townie would narrow the pool of possible scum. Please let's not rush another lynch.

[Wickedestjr]

Stab wasn't a shining beacon of how to play a pro-town-PR, but I think scum capitalized a bit on the opportunity to look town by coaching the "pro-town" thing to do. IIRC Wicked was the worst offender, and I need to do a little meta-diving to see if its personality or alignment indicative.

I think I know what post your referencing here, but I don't see what your issue is.

On the topic of Wicked, of note is his WKing of Thomas #250 which was done during twilight.

Not white knighting, just making my guess before the flip. I take pride in the accuracy of my reads. For the record, I don't think I've ever white-knighted as mafia before nor have I ever considered it - but it's a tell that I'm fully aware of.

Wicked, maybe you can help me so I don't have to read for another two hours.... do you always tell people how to play pro-town in your games? Do you do it as both alignments?

I don't have time to check either. But I'm sure that I've done it before as town. I probably haven't done it before as scum, but that would be largely due to the fact that I'm rarely scum - given the right circumstances, I think, as scum, I could/would tell people how to play pro-town. I'd say it's null if not a slight town frustration tell.

Who do you think is scum with him [Shaded]? (You've probably said this before but I'm short on time and have to go now.)

I haven't said that before, actually. You missed nothing. I would have tried to figure it out on day 3 or day 4, but quick hammers and VLA prevented me from doing so. Hopefully, I get the chance today now that it's LyLo and I'm not VLA.

[Wickedestjr]

WTF is going on? I completely disagree. I dunno, the doc could you know, maybe stop a night-kill from happening? That sounds pretty useful to me, and not only from a preventing scum from killing aspect. Think about it for a second.

You aren't going to change my mind on this, especially in a game where quick lynching has been so common (and with the two quick hammerers still present). Mass claim is typically the best choice in LyLo situations, and I'm certain that it is here too.

1. I'll explain why the doctor is of no use to us. Lets say we lynch scum today, then we're left with two VTs, the doc, and the last mafia member. If the next night kill is prevented, then we are left with four people (scenario A). If the night kill is successful, then we are left with three people (scenario B). In both situations, town has one shot at lynching the final scum however scenario B offers the best odds because 33% > 25%. So it's actually better if somebody dies tonight. A successful doctor protection doesn't help us. Two notes;
a.) If nobody dies tonight, that doesn't necessarily confirm the saved player as town.
b.) The four heads is better than three argument can easily be substituted by a more careful and thorough discussion today.

2. If the doctor doesn't claim today, then we have a 40% chance of lynching scum today. If the doctor does claim today, then we have a 50% chance of lynching scum today. I prefer the 50% chance over the 40% chance. One note;
a.) I'm not comfortable following a plan that involves no claiming just yet, but doctor claims if they're about to get lynched. I doubt it would work.

3. It is LyLo so we have to put all the information on the table to ensure that we make the right decision here. For me, personally, it's easier to determine who scum are when there is a confirmed townie present. Another hypothetical situation where it might be helpful; lets say I'm 95% confident that Shaded is mafia but am alright with lynching Player A because I think Player A could be Shaded's scum partner. If Shaded is the doctor, then my Player A vote is completely unjustified.

[Wickedestjr]

Wicked, if you are town like you say you are, you just narrowed down the pool of potential candidates and I am likely to be killed anyway, so there really isn't any point to theory discussions although I would have much rather stayed under the radar.

I am the Macho Doc and I protected Wicked last night.

Eh... I still think it was right for you to claim.

This helps me a lot, because I had a null read on you up until now. Now I know it's between {awest, Marcrell, Shaded} and the possible scum teams have been cut in half from my perspective.

And I don't think you need to worry; I have no intention of voting/lynching today before you've figured out who you think the scum are. Given that it is LyLo, we have to assume the person we lynch today is scum when we think about tomorrow's lynch (if today's lynchee is town, then it's game over anyway). So you can make a decision today with just as much information as there will be tomorrow.

[Wickedestjr]

I think you are town and I've felt that way for a long time now. If I had to guess right this second, I would still say that you are the townie among {you, Marcrell, Shaded}. But I'm not 100% certain and I never will be until the game is over. So, yes, you might be scum. There's a 2/3 chance that you are, so it would be naive of me to ignore the possibility even if I think it's the least likely. I still need to look at the interactions between the three of you and I won't finish it tonight because it's kinda late, but when I do finish looking I will rank the three possible scum teams (fmpov) from most to least likely.

[Wickedestjr]

Thomas: RagnarokCometh, Egg, Randomidget,

ShadedMelee, Marcrell,

tn5421,

awestfie
Marcrell:

Wickedestjr, Kodama

randomidget: Thomas
RagnarokCometh: TheYankeeReaper

Armageddon:

Stabsinthe

Not Voting:

Armageddon

Tn5421:

Awestfie,

Armageddon,

ShadedMelee,

Boonskiies, Egg,

Marcrell

Armageddon:

RadnarokCometh, Randomidget, Wickedestjr

Awestfie:

Tn5421

Not Voting:

Kodama

Armageddon:

Awestfie,

Catastrophe, Egg,

ShadedMelee,

Armageddon

randomidget:

Marcell
Not Voting:

Kodama, Randomidget, Wickedestjr

Titus: Catastrophe,

Marcrell,

ProHawk,

ShadedMelee
ShadedMelee:

Wickedestjr

Awestfie:

Titus

Not Voting: Awestfie

[Wickedestjr]

Armageddon and awestfie interactions;
23: Armageddon votes awestfie in RVS
24: awestfie acknowledges the RVS vote
29: awestfie asks Ragnarok about Armageddon's RVS vote
36: awestfie continues the post 29 inquiry
42: Armageddon town reads awestfie and unvotes
44: Armageddon explains that town read
167: awestfie asks Armageddon about the power role claim
170: awestfie continues to ask Armageddon about this
476: awestfie mentions the possibility that Ragnarok guiltied Armageddon
491: awestfie votes for Armageddon

Armageddon and Marcrell interactions;
226: Marcrell posts a reads list. He null reads Armageddon here.
399: Marcrell starts another reads list. Town leaning on Armageddon but acknowledges the 'few suspicious bumps along the way'.
408: Iso quotes Armageddon in order to analyze him. Armageddon is first in alphabetical order so I think that's why Marcrell chose to analyze him.
434: Armageddon says that Marcrell may have parroted him.

Armageddon and Shaded interactions;
292: Shaded gives his reads on many players. He says he's unsure about Armageddon.
406: Marcrell said that Armageddon had decent content. Shaded responded here by saying that he didn't see the decent content.
520: Shaded votes for Armageddon and has determined that he is confirmed scum.

[Wickedestjr]

awestfie and Marcrell interactions;
89: awest had just asked if anyone was here. Marcrell chimes in to say he is here.
90: awest asks Marcrell about his Shaded read.
91: awest asks Marcrell about all of his reads.
182: Marcrell asks awest about her tn vote.
183: awest answers.
226: Marcrell posts his reads list and town reads awestfie.
282: Marcrell acknowledges awestfie's tn vote.
383: Marcrell says that awestfie could be heavy bussing tn.
384: awestfie asks Marcrell to explain.
385: awestfie continues by saying that 383 was useless.
397: Marcrell responds to 384 and 385.
399: Marcrell starts a new reads list. He town reads awestfie.
458: awestfie asks Marcrell to hammer tn.
465: awestfie tells Marcrell that tn will not flip town.
557: awestfie ISOs Marcrell.

awestfie and Shaded interactions;
90: awestfie asks Marcrell why he town reads Shaded.
245: Shaded gets mad at awestfie for the quick hammer on day 1.
270: Shaded votes for awestfie.
279: Shaded unvotes.
292: Shaded says awestfie could go both ways but suggests not lynching her day 2.
477: awestfie says that Shaded might be scum and explains why.
480: Shaded says he thought awestfie was cop. He then responds to 477.
481: awestfie responds to 480.
482: Shaded responds to 481.
537: awestfie ISOs Shaded and thinks he might be scum.
593: awestfie still thinks Shaded is scum. She says that Titus is not his partner.

Marcrell and Shaded interactions;
86: Marcrell town reads Shaded and others.
98: Marcrell says that Shaded has well reasoned posts.
126: Marcrell says that he doesn't remember why he town read Shaded. He claims that he misread.
215: Shaded says that Marcrell seems null. He doesn't understand my case against Marcrell.
226: Marcrell posts his reads list. Town lean on Shaded.
306: Shaded defends Marcrell.
358: Shaded says he's glad I dropped my Marcrell case. He says Marcrell should post a detailed analysis of all players. He null reads Marcrell.
387: Shaded asks Marcrell why he ignored him.
397: Marcrell answers that he was just busy.
406: Shaded says that he thinks the beginning of Marcrell's new reads list looks artificial.
428: Shaded asks Marcrell about his reads.
430: Marcrell explains his random suspicion to Shaded.
447: Shaded asks Marcrell why he's not voting randomidget.
453: Shaded asks Marcrell to hammer tn.

[Wickedestjr]

I mostly just posted all of that for my own use later. That took me a pretty long time, almost an hour and a half. So I'm taking a break now, but I will analyze this all soon.

But I can already say that I'm more confident in a Shaded/Marcrell team.

[Wickedestjr]

I wasn't sure if I was going to do this today, but you've forced my hand. I'm the macho doc, this guy is scum. Coincidentally, I actually did protect Wickedjsrt last night. Awestfie night 1,

Ragnarok night 2

, forgot about the game night 3 and didn't protect anybody.

Wait, who died on night 2?

[Wickedestjr]

Vote: Marcrell

[Wickedestjr]

Oh wow.

Unvote.

Forgot about that.

[Wickedestjr]

Ok so the scum team is NOT ProHawk and awestfie.

[Wickedestjr]

The scum team simply doesn't have awestfie in it. I would've hammered there and followed your own logic of Ragnarok dying since it would've matched up with my previous mech comment where I was curious as to why the obvious town-reads kept dying. Post 606.

I act like Marcrell slipped, kill ProHawk and I look like town the next day since I'd have no reason to quick-lynch my partner considering the situation we're in.

Ok I believe you.

After ISOing you/Marcrell today, I can say that you don't look like his partner either. Now I'm pretty sure that you're town.

[Wickedestjr]

Marcrell, why did you protect awestfie night 1?

ProHawk why did you protect me last night?

[Wickedestjr]

Bleh... I am completely split here to be honest. awest is probably town and that means Shaded is probably scum. But I don't know about Marcrell and ProHawk.

-I have been suspicious of Marcrell for almost the entire game. However, the recent counter claim is weird if Marcrell IS mafia. a.) I would have expected scumMarcrell to not counter claim and avoid the unnecessary attention. b.) Marcrell said that he forgot to protect someone night 3. Why would he make that up as scum? He could have just said that he protected awest or me.

-I haven't seen anything telling from ProHawk. I could see scumProHawk claiming doc, especially when it was very obvious that awest, Shaded, and I were not claiming doc (no reason for scumProHawk not to think he could beat Marcrell here). The last two pages haven't inspired my confidence in him either.

TL;DR - I'm 50-50. Part of me actually just wants to lynch Shaded because I'm more than 50% confident that he is mafia.

[Wickedestjr]

...but we'll have to decide between ProHawk and Marcrell eventually anyway. I need to think about this.

[Wickedestjr]

Uhhh what?

I didn't unvote because I forgot somebody could hammer. I was fully aware that I had put Marcrell at L-1. At first, I voted Marcrell because I thought he had scumslipped by saying he protected Ragnarok the night Ragnarok died. But then I realized that macho doc can't save the macho cop.

[Wickedestjr]

Who's more suspicious between ProHawk and Marcrell?

[Wickedestjr]

Yeah when I voted Marcrell it was because I thought he was confirmed scum until awestfie pointed out that he wasn't.

Plus even if I voted Marcrell now, it's not like the votes are hard to keep track of. There are only five people here, three to lynch.

[Wickedestjr]

Happy Scum Day Marcrell!

[Wickedestjr]

Armageddon was likely scum, but not confirmed scum. And please reread - Catastrophe called Armageddon confirmed scum AFTER Armageddon had claimed mafia and self-hammered. You called Armageddon confirmed scum before he claimed.

Yeah when I voted Marcrell it was because

I thought he was confirmed scum

until awestfie pointed out that he wasn't.

Plus even if I voted Marcrell now, it's not like the votes are hard to keep track of. There are only five people here, three to lynch.

So you think me telling Arma conf-scum before he reveals himself is scummy. But it is NOT when you do the same. Right?

Armageddon was not confirmed scum before he claimed. Quit acting like he was please. He was voted off the assumption that Ragnarok guiltied him, an assumption that is still not confirmed even with the scum flip. If the macho mechanic didn't exist, then I would have been comfortable calling Marcrell confirmed scum because he could not have possibly protected Ragna the night that he died without the macho mechanic. There's a difference here.

He should care, because human-beings make mistakes. If Marcrell is town and he made a mistake in his judgement (and he really did because ragna was macho), scum could quick-hammer and win the game. I don't see how this is unimportant.

Sure, human-beings make mistakes. But I don't think I've ever seen someone make the mistake that I thought Marcrell had made. Very unlikely. Can you link me an example?

I just realized if wicked is scum awe is not (because they would hammer Marcrell and win)

Awe you should really start trusting me because i think your worst nightmare is true. It is either Wicked & Pro or Wicked & Marcrell. Which one do you think is more probable?

Wth? Two doc claims should have revealed that the scum team is not Me/awe because we already know that Marcrell or ProHawk is mafia. No reason for awest to think it's me and not you.

Shaded you missed my question from before; Is it more likely that Marcrell is mafia or ProHawk?

[Wickedestjr]

Wicked, how in the world are you completely split here?

You quoted my explanation.

This is exactly why I would have counter-claimed if I were mafia.

I could see you claiming doc as scum. But I have trouble seeing Marcrell claim doc as scum. There is a significant difference in experience between you two.

Saying you forgot to protect someone does two things. One, it does exactly what it did on you. Two, he doesn't have to play the game of "well, why did you protect that person?"

[Three,]

It is also something quick you can say if you haven't had the time to come up with a proper fake-claim.

1. I'm not sure that would go through Marcrell's thinking process though. If Marcrell is scum, then I think he chose to say he forgot because he ran out of choices (e.g. he couldn't say he protected Egg night 3) not because he was trying to trick me.
2. It's not a difficult game by any means. He could have inserted the name of someone he already claimed to protect or another popular town read. If anything, explaining how he forgot to submit a night action is more difficult.
3. Quicker than just choosing a name that works? He could have spent ten more minutes on that claim and it wouldn't have changed his perception at all.

I am not sure what you are looking for from me being "telling" here. You actually think I would make this a

1v1

me against Marcrell as scum when if I were scum, I could have either mis-lynched Shaded and won, or bussed him for cred and went into 3p LYLO with the exact same situation? You have the wrong idea anyway, in mafia there is no "beating" involved. What exactly about Marcrell's claim (aside from you think his targets are more legit than mine, which isn't really apples for apples considering I replaced into this slot) makes you think he isn't lying?

1. Yes, I could very easily see you make this move as scum. Are you seriously claiming that you wouldn't have? I don't know you, but I see your join date and post count plus I can tell from your limited posting that you know what you're doing here. Probability-wise, your chance of winning as scum is equal to your chance of winning if you didn't claim. Plus, as I said before, it was pretty clear that Marcrell was doc if you are mafia. Marcrell is the most infrequent poster remaining as well as the most inexperienced (I think) plus he's not been strongtownread by anyone.
2. There is in fact beating. You called it 1v1, yourself. If we lynch the wrong doc claim, scum wins and I would say the scum doc claim would have beaten the real doc in that case.
3. Aside from the night 3 choice, I thought his doc claim seemed real because he claimed doc.

[Wickedestjr]

EBWOP: Marcrell being an infrequent poster and inexperienced is not the reason why it was obvious he was doc if you are scum.

[Wickedestjr]

@ProHawk's 687- I wouldn't have expected Marcrell to mention the doc in the post that you quoted. You hadn't claimed by that point either. You say "then comes the flurry of a counter-claim" as if the speed was indicative he's scum - but I see nothing wrong with the time that he claimed.

@ProHawk's 688- Where's the parroting? And you might have a point regarding the lack of immediate vote, but I've seen townies do that before.

ProHawk I have three more questions for you,
-Have you ever played on EM? Any experience there?
-Did you think I was more likely than Catastrophe to die last night? I mean, the kills had been pretty ABC at that point. There was a player that suspected me, but nobody that suspected Catastrophe. Catastrophe was the main force behind Armageddon's lynch. I was expecting that slot to die.
-If Marcrell is scum, who's his partner?

[Wickedestjr]

Marcrell,
-why did you protect awest night 1?
-did you alter your play in any way because you were doc?

[Wickedestjr]

So you didn't expect the doc to claim when you specifically asked them to?

Not necessarily. In which post did I specifically ask the doc to claim? I'm curious when you think it was.

Re: the parroting- fair enough. Maybe you're right.

Yeah, I thought for sure you were going to die. What does ABC mean? You were the one honing in on Shaded, not Catastrophe. Shaded has to be Marcrell's partner.

ABC = first three letters of alphabet = basic. When I said "ABC killing" I meant that the kills all felt simple/expected. I'll admit that nights 2 and 4 were more difficult to predict, but certainly nothing out of the ordinary. No scum tricks so far. If Shaded has to be scum, then why do you think he would kill the slot that was town reading him as opposed to... say... awest (a slot that was more popularly town read and suspicious of Shaded)? I'm asking partially because I'm not sure myself.

[Wickedestjr]

I'm here. Reading your posts now.

[Wickedestjr]

Awest? I've gone over this. I liked his tn case, and was probably one of the few who liked the hammer. He seemed like my best candidate.
Little play altering went on. I hesitated on a couple posts(most weren't posted), but most of this is my natural play.

It's fine if being doc didn't cause you to change your play style much. But can you explain what you mean when you say you hesitated on a couple posts?

[Wickedestjr]

Also, I don't know why you guys care about who was saved on the first night since it clearly didn't matter; Stabs claimed and he was obviously going to die.

Very good point. I town read you after you quick hammered but I was surprised that both Kodama and Marcrell also town read you enough to both choose you. Usually quick hammers are frowned upon but they both seemed fine with it. That's why I was curious.

[Wickedestjr]

Cool. If you had to lynch a doctor right now, who would it be and why?

Gun at my head, if I had to choose right now, I think I'd choose ProHawk. But that's seriously 55-45 right now. I see solid arguments for and against either one. Every time I think I have something telling, I realize something else which might undermine that previously telling thing. e.g. I originally thought there was no way Marcrellscum would think to counter claim the doc. Then I realized about a half hour ago that if Marcrell/Shaded was the team, if Marcrell didn't cc, and if ProHawk was confirmed town, that's a really easy win for town. But the instant Marcrell cc'd it became more difficult (because ProHawk is pretty nullread) - there's his motivation as scum.

I still haven't paid much attention to Kodama/ProHawk interactions with Arma/Shaded, though I really need to. And I may have to resort to meta checking too. Hopefully that would help me here.

[Wickedestjr]

How about you, which direction are you leaning right now?

Ah.

Yeah, I thought for sure you were going to die. What does ABC mean? You were the one honing in on Shaded, not Catastrophe. Shaded has to be Marcrell's partner.

If Shaded has to be scum, then why do you think he would kill the slot that was town reading him as opposed to... say... awest (a slot that was more popularly town read and suspicious of Shaded)? I'm asking partially because I'm not sure myself.

I think you know the answer to that.

I have ideas, but I'm interested to see what ProHawk thinks.

[Wickedestjr]

What about 408 indicates that Marcrell is scum?

I'm still thinking about your questions.

[Wickedestjr]

I've thought about it and I think we should lynch in VTs today.

Advantages of lynching in VTs first;
-Right now I'm 55-45 for Pro vs. Marcrell but I'm 90-10 for Shaded vs. you. So I would be way more confident lynching Shaded.
-This allows us more time to decide between the docs, the more difficult choice.
-We all agree that Shaded is scum.
-If we ultimately decide to lynch the real doc, then it would at least be cool if we could lynch one more scum first.

At first, I thought it would be best to lynch docs first because you and I are both here to decide together now as opposed to tomorrow. But then I remembered we still have two living doc claims. That means, if we lynch Shaded today and he's scum, you and I are immune from the kill tonight. So there's actually another advantage;

-If Shaded is scum and we lynch him, then we have two confirmed townies tomorrow.

[Wickedestjr]

Not necessarily. In which post did I specifically ask the doc to claim? I'm curious when you think it was.

This one. V

Prod dodge. I'll get to this game later today.

Given that it is now LyLo, I think a doc claim is in order. The doc is no longer of use to us and one confirmed townie would narrow the pool of possible scum. Please let's not rush another lynch.

Okay, but you didn't claim after I made that post. So why is it suspicious that Marcrell didn't either?

Honestly boils down to WIFOM, which is the majority of this game, but there are tons of explanations - trying to avoid killing someone with a good chance of being protected, trying to cause confusion, trying to frame someone for committing the murder... I could only speculate as to why. Its pretty clear I suck and trying to read scum's mind, but I still stand by my decision to keep you around for today.

Okay. Fair enough. I actually like your 'good chance of being protected point'. That's not one I initially thought of.

ProHawk what do you think of my previous post?

[Wickedestjr]

I'd love to stay and chat, but it's 1:40 AM and I told myself I'd go to sleep at 1:30 AM. If I can't fall asleep, then I might make short phone posts.

[Wickedestjr]

Phone post - just wanted to clarify one thing quickly

Awest, my idea was that we tell the doc claims who to protect before we lynch. Eg. Pro you protect awest and Marcrell you protect me. Then if we lynch Shaded and he's maf then the remaining maf has to not kill. If you died during the night we'd know pro was maf because he was supposed to protect you. Likewise if I died we'd know Marcrell was maf. Mafia has to not kill otherwise they're outed - we would both survive the night.

[Wickedestjr]

Look how wicked proposed the doc claim, look how he now proposes the lynch of a VT.

This is meaningless. If Marcrell hadn't counterclaimed, then ProHawk would have been confirmed town and we would have lynched within VTs anyway. Only when Marcrell counter claimed did 'lynching between docs' become an option. I asked for a doc claim in the hopes that we would have a confirmed townie, I wasn't expecting a counter claim.

If we lynch a doc claim, we have %50 percent chance to hit scum. If we lynch a VT we have %33 chance. How is that better?

Well it's sure as heck not worse because it would be 50% and 33% in some order regardless. And I already explained the advantages of lynching in VTs first. Remember? You said my idea (of lynching in VTs first then having docs protect the two conftownies) was perfect aside from the fact that you claimed town. This is a pure survival-motivated comment.

I have issue with the fact that Shaded is doing NOTHING to discern which of the doc claims is fake - he already knows / doesn't care. He's deadset that I'm scum for weak reasons which I already demolished yesterday. His play this game has been nothing more than calling himself town and calling me scum. awestfie reconsidered her town read on me when there was no scum motivation for her to do so. I am almost certain that Shaded is mafia here, even more confident than I was yesterday.

[Wickedestjr]

A couple post I would have made I deemed too potentially risky, as if the attacked was scum, I might die. So several posts never made the light of day as I deleted them.

Can you give me a specific example please? As much detail as you can remember/provide here. Tia

[Wickedestjr]

awestfie, I don't understand the contradiction you pointed out in 774. Can you please explain ProHawk's hypothetical scum motivation for not voting Shaded?

[Wickedestjr]

I didn't say he was scum for it, did I? I said he contradicted himself which he did; I fail to see how I didn't look "ready" to lynch Shaded there. There's not much to explain, Wicked.

You didn't say he was scum. But the wording of your post indicated to me that you found the contradiction odd or suspicious - I was curious what was odd or suspicious about it. You said you were testing ProHawk so I assumed it was an effort to further discern his alignment and the contradiction was a negative result. If you didn't see anything odd or suspicious in the contradiction, then I don't understand why you paid attention to it or tested him in the first place.

[Wickedestjr]

And for what it's worth, I'm actually ready to lynch Shaded. I've grown confident enough to the point that I seriously doubt that I'll be changing my mind. Additionally, we all seem confident that Shaded is scum but I think it will be easier to determine his partner once we KNOW he is scum. Something about checking doc interactions with Shaded is more motivating/interesting/important once I know Shaded's scum. I'm starting to agree with awest that we are now going nowhere. I believe 16 (or less) days of consideration with two confirmed townies, two dead scum, one simple 50-50 decision will yield more beneficial discussion than this.

[Wickedestjr]

I wanted to see if ProHawk was going to be a man-of-his-words and clearly; he wasn't. He believes Shaded is scum and there was a good opportunity for him to get him lynched there and he didn't take it, why?

A) Shaded is the partner of ProHawk and it would explain why ProHawk was refusing to vote him and it would match up with the fact that ProHawk only wants to have Marcrell lynched.
B) ProHawk didn't feel confident enough to move his vote there yet; which I don't think is the case considering he said he would less than 20 posts ago.

Ok I understand now.

Maybe I do think he's scum, but I'm just fucking uncertain, re-read where I panicked and told Marcrell to unvote; do you seriously feel like I'd pull that off as scum?

No, that's near-confirmation for me that you're town actually and partially what prompted my 784.

Because with the message I'm reading it almost makes it look like you're rising your suspicion on me; I may be reading it wrong.

My town read on you is strengthening as I said before. I asked about this not to discern your alignment but to potentially strengthen my read on ProHawk.

[Wickedestjr]

awestfie, I will kick off the voting if you don't mind.

Vote: Shaded

(L-2)

This post is fake;

let me help you awe. i really tried, but i can not give an eye to a blind.

good game guys, especially wicked, you were an excellent scum.

VOTE: shadedmelee

I have literally made this exact same post before as scum, because I know that crap like that sounds good. There's no reason for town to say stuff like that, he's been trying to play this card the entire day. Look here;

Well gg scum. Really well done. blindfaeth, you played brilliantly.

This was the game- http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p3303760
I was scum and blindfaeth was town. Blindfaeth was a cop that guiltied me and I was trying to argue that blindfaeth was mafia. I made that post (and several other BS arguments) in a last ditch effort to save my own skin.

[Wickedestjr]

Also, Shaded wouldn't have called me an excellent scum if he was really town. He's suspected me for the last two days why in the world would he complement my play if he thinks he was on to me?

[Wickedestjr]

The only thing that bothers me about Wicked is:

A) His opening; the comment in post 10 ("Clearly the three mafia are Egg, RagnarokCometh, and Stabsinthe. They thought they could prolong the confirmation stage by not confirming and chatting it up in their scum qt instead. Unfortunately for them, they didn't realize that the mod was bolding the names of those who had confirmed already - rookie mistake on their part.") is something I saw him do in another game where he was scum, but I never saw him do it as town. (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=25440 - post 9)
B) In post 23, I simply can't understand why Armageddon vote me when he thought I betrayed Wicked; why would he vote me yet quote him?

I know it's really weak, but it's the only thing that's bothering me about him. =/

A) The only similarity between that scum game and this game is that I was online when the game started. I hate the RVS, so if a game starts and I'm online then I try to say weird things to take the game out of RVS. And I actually have done that as town before. The first time I ever behaved strangely in a similar manner I was town... in this game- http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=13904, first two pages (starting in post 24). I will admit that my page 1 play is more similar to that scum game than any other, but that's because I got such a great reaction from it when I tried it as scum (and I enjoyed it in that game).
B) It was a joke.

[Wickedestjr]

A) If you're still not convinced, here's another game; http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=22984. I was in the Masnev hydra with havingfitz, but I made all of that hydra's page 1 posts. We were town in that game. Because I despise RVS, right off the bat, I tried to get us out of RVS. I random voted Paschendale, he responded to that random vote, and I questioned him for it even though it wasn't a big deal. The result was that people reacted and the game became serious.

[Wickedestjr]

When I made the weird scum team post on page one of that scum game, I believe it led to RVS ending and it had the same intention there too. In this game, I tried to end RVS with that scum team post as well as the ridiculous questions I asked in posts 14 and 20.

I'm going to sleep now. If you have issue with my Shaded vote please let me know ASAP. Otherwise it will be there for the next eight or nine hours.

[Wickedestjr]

Marcrell you protect awestfie tonight

ProHawk you protect me tonight

No excuses if one of us dies tonight.

[Wickedestjr]

Yep it was ProHawk and I.

Gg all. *High fives ProHawk* we did it partner!

I waited until day 2 to bus Kodama because I didn't want the bussing to seem too eager or fake. Armageddon already had some pressure so I didn't want to add to that - I voted Armageddon on day 2 when it was clear that his lynch wasn't happening. However, once he was lynched on day 3, I realized that I couldn't attack Kodama/ProHawk any more. That's why I pretty much ignored them day 4. Today, I knew that Marcrell was going to counterclaim and that's why I never finished my awest/Shaded/Marcrell analysis.

This was a crazy game but it was fun and I hope to play with you all again some time in the future.

Shaded, props to you for realizing I was scum near the end of day 3.

[Wickedestjr]

Just kidding

Oh wicked, I was so sure that you were scum. I should quit playing this game to overcome this shame. Reallly sorry for that, you spent much of your time defending my attacks while you could use that energy for scumhunting.

I spent much of my time defending your attacks and attacking you... yet I still managed to scumhunt more than you.

[Wickedestjr]

Alright, who spilled the fruit juice?

I will have other questions later.

[Wickedestjr]

Marcrell

, can you please respond to this;

A couple post I would have made I deemed too potentially risky, as if the attacked was scum, I might die. So several posts never made the light of day as I deleted them.

Can you give me a specific example please? As much detail as you can remember/provide here. Tia

[Wickedestjr]

There are still some things I need to look at. Not sure who I want to vote yet.

[Wickedestjr]

I understand. If Marcrell was scum, then it would have been a really easy win if he hadn't counter claimed.

[Wickedestjr]

Just did a quick meta check. ProHawk looks slightly better here, Marcrell looks significantly worse. Marcrell has never been scum. However, his play here seems different from his town games. He seems more cautious here, something feels missing. At least that's the impression I get from a quick skim.

I tried looking through Armageddon and Shaded's past games, but it doesn't look like they've ever been scum prior to this game, so it's hard to say how they treat their partners. The only example to look at is Armageddon and Shaded's interactions with each other in this game - they basically ignored each other all game until Catastrophe argued that Ragnarok guiltied Armageddon, at which point Shaded voted Armageddon and assumed he was confirmed scum.

[Wickedestjr]

Ughhhh... My mind is all over the place, I'm still going back and forth.

Yesterday I voted Marcrell because I thought he was confirmed scum for saying he protected Ragnarok night 2. Then awestfie pointed out that Ragnarok was macho at that point, he could have been protected the same night he died. This was not obvious to me until awestfie pointed it out. If I were scum fake claiming doc, I would have looked at the players that I killed each night and chosen someone else as my fake protection choice of each night. I wouldn't have said that I protected Ragnarok night 2, why would Marcrell?

[Wickedestjr]

Just need to look at isos/interactions now.

[Wickedestjr]

If Marcrell was scum, then it would have been a really easy win if he hadn't counter claimed.

Explain. This makes absolutely no sense. At all.

Easy win for town, not Marcrell.

I wouldn't have said that I protected Ragnarok night 2, why would Marcrell?

Maybe because he knows the setup?

Maybe. I'm not sure he would put that much thought into a fake claim though.

[Wickedestjr]

Have you ever fake-claimed as scum?

Once on another site. But that was six or seven years ago, I claimed cop, and it was on day 1 so I had no results to fake. I'm rarely ever scum, so I've almost never had to fake claim but I've witnessed many fake claims.

[Wickedestjr]

Now that I think about it, I haven't actually witnessed many fake claims either. But I'll try my best here.

The successful fake claimer;
-was townish prior to their claim
-there's room in the setup for the role that they are claiming (not really applicable in an open game)
-claimed at an appropriate time (e.g. not claiming cop after the real cop guilties them, not cc'ing two weeks after the real claim, etc.)
-role fits with the way they were playing (e.g. they breadcrumbed, they protected players they town read, stopped voting players they got innocents on, etc.)
-night choices make sense

I think that's about it.

[Wickedestjr]

Wow, thank you awestfie. I'll take a look at those posts later today.

[Wickedestjr]

Marcrell

- You claim that you are the macho doctor. So, if you were mafia...
1. How would you have played differently?
2. How would you have treated or interacted with Armageddon and Shaded?
3. Who would you have voted for on each day?
4. Who would you have nightkilled each night?
5. What would you have done last night?

[Wickedestjr]

Armageddon's interactions with Marcrell and Kodama

#1 - I was the first one to say anything of the sort, stabs had only just joined the thread and I was the FIRST person to say that, I wasn't parroting anybody.

if anything Marcrell parroted me.

#2 - It was my opinion at the time, i felt that the valid point he had was that stabs posts could easily of been as an attempt to get them to claim, which was what tn said.
#3 - I wasn't saying "I think he's doc but I doubt he's doc" actually i'd say it's more like this - "I think he's mafia, but he could be the doc".
#4 - This one, please read carefully, I asked him WHY he made no effort to get information from thomas, when he had stated in the previous post that he was more interested in information. While I suppose I cannot fight against the "Parroting" of this post, they were my genuine opinions and if it makes me a parrot by sharing my opinions if they've been said before, then so be it, I would rather be a parrot then not say anything at all. I have not played Mafia in 2 years, as such I am very rusty about generating my own reads.

And that's not much, but that's it.

Shaded's interactions with Marcrell, Kodama, and ProHawk

idk egg is town but randomidget is scum

Unvote, Vote: randomidget

You got me, there is no way I can defend against this.
This ladies and gentlemen, is OMGUS at its finest.

This looks like bussing to me. Where is the Thomas's argument?. And why randommidget is counterreacting like this when it is totally unneeded. The whole looks like fabricated. Considering the Thomas's lack of geniune scumunting and some wierd posts like 204:

VOTE: Thomas

and i am watching randommidget as a possible scum-mate.

Marcrell's ISO looks null to me. I really do not understand the case against him.

I will check tn when meat-world allows it.

What don't you understand?

I will try to explain by quoting your reasons:

I apologize for not explaining my vote immediately. It was 1:34 am and I just had to get to sleep.

Reasons why I voted for Marcrell;
-It does not seem like he actually has an interest in figuring out who the mafia are. He has voted his suspect and provided several other reads, however, he has not asked anyone any questions, has done nothing to really strengthen any of his reads. You'd think that he'd want to learn more about the guy he's voting at least. But I guess he doesn't.

This is true, but not indicative. We have many players that does not seem to scumhunt properly like Arma, Yankee, random, and even egg (although i read him strongly town).

-I have issue with Marcrell's vote for Stabsinthe. Stabsinthe is clearly pretty inexperienced, so the vote looks really easy. If Stabsinthe is town, then there is no difficulty for scum to vote him for such obvious/basic reasoning. I get the impression that Marcrell voted Stabsinthe because it was the easiest option. Now Marcrell has revealed that his suspicion of Stabsinthe has weakened, however, his vote remains. This seems like a minor fence sit - he has left open all of his options (keep vote on Stabsinthe or switch his vote). It looks like he's given himself room to switch his vote as soon as he notices the momentum switching. But the vote is still there in case others decide to join the wagon.

I agree with this, but he may as well considering his options and trying to read other posts while doing this. Very minor scum-tell.

-It seems like his reads are designed to bother as few people as possible. His three townish reads on Kodama, Shaded, and Egg are all popular town reads iirc. I don't think anyone has town read randommidget yet, but he has been questioned. Marcrell thinks randommidget is 'odd' for the same reason that he was questioned. 'Odd' is a fence sit word - he could say that randommidget is suspicious for the 'odd' behavior or he could say that the 'odd' behavior is odd and just odd (I have seen that before). He hasn't taken a stance yet. I can't help but think that he's waiting to see what the popular stance is before he decides his.

This looks like a behaviour of an inexperienced player. They almost always tend to follow popular opinions. Not a scum-tell for me. Also i saw many townies use the word 'odd'. Even i have used it in this game. Again, not a scum-tell for me.

Conclusion: Considering his total acceptance of your reasons and VI-like posts & defence, i would tell he is null.

tn & random's analysis will follow.

I am glad wicked dropped his case against Marcell. But a detailed analysis of all players would be appreciated from Marcell to allow us a better read. He still stays at my null-list.

I scumread both tn and random, for the time being my vote stays on tn as my gut says awes is right.

Kodama's change of play from first day also concerns me. He was very townish at Day 1, yet he contributed zero today, plus posting conflicting one liners.
If it had been a cult game, i would have said he has been recruited last night. 313 and 350 are totally out of context that looks like trying to divert the attention of us.

He is either trying to protect one of his pressured scummates which i think in {random, tn}, or it is just a discoordination between his hydra heads.
That's why i do not like playing with hydras. If the head's playstyles are different, when one head vanishes temporarily, playstyle changes completely and confuses the town.

@Marcell: why did you ignore my request?

I am glad wicked dropped his case against Marcell. But a detailed analysis of all players would be appreciated from Marcell to allow us a better read. He still stays at my null-list.

I hope this was worth the wait folks! A detailed analysis!
Armageddon: In most posts he explains his votes, asks questions, gives reasons. Much decent content. A few suspicious bumps along the way, but overall he is Town leaning.
Awestfie: Lots of questions, stimulating conversation, more hunting. I worded my earlier post badly, I meant in the same way in Thomas as you're going very hard for a lynch as soon as possible on tn today and the quickhammer on Thomas yesterday. Seems very motivated to lynch those he scumreads. Town lean.
I really regret coming on now, so tireeeedddd.
Boonskiies/TheYankeeReaper: Null. Barely any posts, not enough to go on.
Egg: His posts have content. Lots. I think especially today, after he started analyzing the lynch, he has the post numbers and analysis. Town. So definitely.
Guys, it's 12 A.M., I can't do this anymore. I'll give you the rest tomorrow, I just can't take anymore of this.

I really did not like this post. It looks artificial.

I do not see Arma's decent content. I do not see stimulating conversation from awes. Boonskiies read is just empty that looks like used for space filling. Egg is a popular town read.

What are your thoughts on other players? Wicked, me, tn, Kodama, random?

where is kodama? needs a prod?

Actually properly read the kodama case. Kodama, could you start marking your posts so I know which head is posting? And unless I'm mistaken then post #304 was never followed up on, why? (Pretty positive from things said that there's only one head posting atm.)

It's still not as good a vote as armageddon.

Yeah sorry, Im the only one thats posting and I have too much investment in my other game atm. I mdo owe you guys some effort though and I apologize for the lethargy. I have some time this evening and will catch up proper.

That evening never comes. We are still waiting for your reads Kodama.

I just realized after looking for quotes that my reads were horrible and I should burn them. I'll get away from that for now. Sorry for the delay wicked, yes I believe he is mafia, or at least likely to be. My suspicion of him is very strong. Don't like his play at all.

which posts of him you find scummy? pls explain in detail. Also update your prev reads.

@Marcrell, why don't you vote? I see no votes in your iso, or do i miss something?

And also could you please give your reads on other people than the ones you mentioned in 399?

Ladies and gentelemen, we have to understand that somebody have to comprimise and be content with their second best scum choice.
Or we will seriously hit that no-lynch barrier.

Any proposals?

P.S. And where the hell is Kodama.

Marcrell I am pretty sure you are town, so can we persuade you for a tn vote if the deadline approaches? Egg, me, awe and Arma (no idea what boonskies is doing) have pretty solid scum reads for tn here.

@Mod:

Kodama did not post for a loong looong time and he was not V/LA. Can you just prod/replace/bark to him?
Possibly randommidget too.

Cool, at least we got one mafia down.

@Mod

I do support replacement of Kodama.

Here he points out the Shaded was on both lynches. He says that he previously thought Shaded was the cop. Scum could be trying to put out a fire before it starts. Haven't gathered much about Shaded with a glance through his ISO, will look in more detail,

I think it is an attempt from scum to make me appear more suspicious. I know this is WIFOM but why should i kill Egg if i had been the scum, it would be too obvious with that recent post. I have a bad feeling that i have been chosen as the mislynch candidate of today by scum. Once again i request everyone to ISO wicked, especially the last day's play was hyper-suspicious.

I'm fairly sure he thought Titus/Randomidget was his partner. It's been said, but hammer was bad, reasoning is bad, Shaded should probably die soon.

What part of my reasoning you found "bad"? It was quite a rational choice from my perspective.

So... Shaded, you quick-hammered for self-preservation?

I quick-hammered because town was about to half-lose the game by lynching me and lynching a popular scum read did not seem worse than that to me. I don't see how this looks as "self-preservation" to you. If i had been lynched, we would be in the same situation as now. If my gambit had not fail, we would be close to winning the game. That was not a bad choice.

Shaded you missed my question from before; Is it more likely that Marcrell is mafia or ProHawk?

I was leaning towards you & Marcrell, but after this last page of interactions i now lean towards you & Prohawk.
My nose smells bussing here.

Awe you and me are the key here. Please hear my voice.

[Wickedestjr]

Shaded's Post Hammer Posts

Oh wicked, I was so sure that you were scum. I should quit playing this game to overcome this shame. Reallly sorry for that, you spent much of your time defending my attacks while you could use that energy for scumhunting.

Thanks for replacing-in prohawk, although there was little you could do to save us, because your predecessor was completely shit. Kodama should have requested a replacement at least. We had both doc slots wasted, loosing was not a surprise.

Also congrats marcrell, you were not as good as your partner, but still played reasonably well. I think you deserved to win but still you should thank him. Counter-claim was risky but still achieved its purpose.

You do realize that was a joke, correct?

Which part of that was a joke? Awe, you or both?

The part about me at least. I can also assume about her, although I can't guarantee.

Damn. I am a fool. Pro, who was your partner? Wicked or awe? It is wicked, isn't it?

[Wickedestjr]

Analyzing it all now for the next half hour.

[Wickedestjr]

I looked at the votecounts.

Day 1;
A. Nothing interesting from Kodama.
B. Armageddon voted Stabs -> Marcrell voted Stabs in his first post following this. Armageddon unvoted -> Marcrell unvoted in his first post following this. Shaded voted Thomas -> Marcrell voted Thomas in his first post following this. Big coincidence or scum following their partners?

+Scum points for Marcrell

Day 2;
A. Nothing interesting from Kodama, they never voted.
B. Nothing notable from Marcrell either. He never voted until Shaded asked him to hammer tn5421. It could be because he was worried about all three scum supporting the tn5421 bandwagon or he could just be town that legitimately didn't like the bandwagon. Null for me.

Day 3;
A. Nothing interesting from Kodama, they never voted.
B. Marcrell was the only voter to vote somebody other than Armageddon. This day lasted five real life days yet Marcrell only posted once and never acknowledged the Armageddon bandwagon. I didn't actually realize how quiet he'd been on that day until I just looked.

+Scum points for Marcrell

Day 4;
A. Nothing really telling from ProHawk here.
B. Nothing notable from Marcrell. He continuation voted Titus/random as expected.


Examining interactions next.

[Wickedestjr]

Hey guys, I'm really sorry about my recent inactivity. Been very distracted these past few days.

Tomorrow, this game will be my top priority. I'm still looking at the interactions. I think I have some questions for ProHawk as well.

I think I'm leaning towards a Marcrell vote if I had to choose right this second, but it's probably 65-35 right now.

[Wickedestjr]

ProHawk

- You claim that you are the macho doctor. So, if you were mafia...
1. How would you have played differently?
2. How would you have treated or interacted with Shaded?
3. Who would you have voted for on day 4?
4. Who would you have nightkilled night 4?
5. What would you have done last night?

[Wickedestjr]

Okay, so I was 65-35 before, but now I'm less confident.

I looked at the meta for Kodama's members; pieguyn and displaced. displaced was only scum once and his only partner had died before he replaced in, so no interaction meta for him. Took me a while to find a scum game of pieguyn's but I found one- http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go. In that game, his most recent completed scum game, he gave his two partners lots of attention and voted both of them at some point. He never voted Armageddon, but he gave him a lot of attention day 1. At the end of that other game, somebody said;

Oh hey, a pie completed scumgame on MS.

...as if it was rare for him to finish a game as scum. And that was the most recent completed scum game that I could find. It is slightly bothersome that he replaced out of this game.

Here's an example of Kodama paying special attention to Armageddon;

Oh I'm absolutely fine, how are you?

Welp, after much consideration and reading through I'm beginning to get town vibes which leads me to suspect that awest is town.

Unvote

is that really all you have to say

what are your other reads?

Kodama is acting like Armageddon's lack of reads is problematic... on page 2. It is strange that they pay special attention to him for that reasoning.

Would be comfortable lynching in [Arma/Yankee]. Both are newbies and flaking *is* a scumtell for newb players.

This doesn't seem telling interaction-wise, but it's still a terrible post for reasons I outlined here.

Well I have to say I was concerned with Shaded yesterday (having RVS in play for a loooong time mainly) but today his posts seem very town motivated.

This is the only town read that Kodama provides all game.

TL;DR -

+Scum points for ProHawk

[Wickedestjr]

Now I'm looking at Marcrell's posts regarding Shaded and Armageddon.

Note: I knew that Marcrell attacked Shaded, but just now realized that this didn't come until after Shaded bussed Armageddon. Coincidence? Or scum tell?

From a quick glance, feeling townish on Egg, Kodama, and ShadedMelee. RandomModget seems a bit odd. Stabsinthe seems a little less suspicious, but still suspicious.

Reads... ShadedMelee/Kodama seem to have well-reasoned posts. Liking what they're doing so far. Egg is more gut, I just like him. RandomMidget says he's worried about a quick lynch when we need seven to vote and the most someone has is two votes. Behavior seems odd. Stab, see previous post.

Loyal scum buddy? Avoids town reading Armageddon here (even though he later does) possibly to avoid looking too loyal.

Can't rebute most of what Wicked said, I have a major fence sitting tendency. YankeeReaper asked me a while back my thoughts on Thomas, so I may as well respond now. He seems to have reasons like me, general and unspecific. Took a lot from a joke and changes his vote, might have reconsidered his stance in the game and used that as an excuse to change it. It would also appear I mistakes Shaded's post with one or several other people's. Don't see what I remember in his ISO.

This looks bad for Marcrell. He doesn't remember why he town read Shaded? Like he feels guilty for town reading Shaded here or he's afraid to explain his town read.

ShadedMelee: Town lean. Not too much in the way of reading(some), ask a couple questions about reads.

Now he remembers.

I hope this was worth the wait folks! A detailed analysis!
Armageddon: In most posts he explains his votes, asks questions, gives reasons. Much decent content. A few suspicious bumps along the way, but overall he is Town leaning.

Now he also town reads Armageddon, but even this is kind of fence-sitty because he acknowledges suspicious bumps along the way. He could easily bus if he felt the need to later, just by referencing said suspicious bumps.

Spoiler: Marcrell's Big Armageddon Post

You guys made me do this know that. Quotes! These will come slowly since I'm on my phone and am a little busy.

Nevermind. Found my role PM.

Unvote. I need to think this through since I am town affiliated.

VOTE: stabsinthe

Why do you feel the need to say that? Almost feels to me like you need to hide the fact your scum by saying you're town.

Pushed same as me. A lot of these will be me pointing out why I found X about a person until I get to somebody I haven't done.

68

I was merely replying to a statement.

Slightly scummy: tn5421

Just what about tn do you find slightly scummy? Personally I think he has valid points and your post could easily be confused for trying to get the PR's to claim.

Not seeing his claim of trying to get PR's to claim.

I already had my suspicions that he was macho doctor to be totally honest with the way he was cop hunting. Either Doctor or Mafia, there was just a higher statistical chance of him being mafia (3 Mafia, 2 doctors). Either way it was bad for him to post who he thought the cop was, so it fit for both.

UNVOTE:

I shall have to look over everything again. Although claiming doctor in this scenario does seem a bit suspicious to my eyes, especially the way he did it. But I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

It didn't seem like he thought he was doc. But he is analyzing, producing content.

The quickhammer came out of left field, I won't be putting anyone else at L-1 as long as awestfie is still alive now that I know she's the kind of person to make people go splat.

VOTE: tn5421

You put him at L1 but didn't expect anyone to lynch him? Honestly it kind of looks to me like you put him at L-1 HOPING someone would quick lynch him, then now you try and claim that it came out of left field, seems fishy to me.

He purposefully put Thomas on L-1. Now he claims that he wasn't expecting anyone to quickhammer, but if you put someone at L-1 then they'll either be hammered or not. Now he says that he wont put anyone else at L-1 because of what awe did. Have a look at p5955218 and then p5960137 he claims that he agrees with awe's quickhammer, then the instant Thomas shows as town he does a complete 180 and says that quickhammering Thomas was bad. Just seems very fishy to me, like he planned it.

There are three possabilities for this

#1 - Tn is scum and was hoping for a quick-hammer on Thomas to get the mislynch.
#2 - Both Tn and awe are scum and saw an oppotunity to work together to get the quicklynch on Thomas, and then Tn voting awe and awe voting Tn be a form of distancing/bussing to hide this.
#3 - Tn and awe are town but made the mistake of putting him on L-1 and hammering respectively.

As long as option 1 and 2 remain a possability then my vote will stay.

Tn:
229 and 273: Putting Thomas to L-1 without any stated reason, and then blaming awe for quick-hammering after it became obvious that she will be under pressure for doing that. I think when several people stated suspicions on himself (like when i told i will iso him, and awe voted him), he decided to push the wagon on Thomas.
254: Wow, this post is scummy as hell. Voting somebody that you don't believe to be scum. Gotta be kidding.
301: Refusing to defend himself deliberately, trying to be low-profile. Why would a townie do that?

Awe shouldn't have quickhammered then, I was more interested in information.
Anti-Town is one step away from scum.
Because I fucking feel like it.

You were more interested in information, and yet you made no effort to actually get that information from Thomas before the lynch went down, why?

Made a good case against tn. Not the first, but a good case.

Seems like he's town reading Armageddon again here.

I just realized after looking for quotes that my reads were horrible and I should burn them. I'll get away from that for now. Sorry for the delay wicked, yes I believe he is mafia, or at least likely to be. My suspicion of him is very strong. Don't like his play at all.

AGAIN. Marcrell retracts a town read on a flipped scum. Remember that he did the same with Shaded on day 1, above. Hasn't done that with anybody else yet. This is a serious issue.

MARCRELL, WHAT'S YOUR READ ON SHADED RIGHT NOW?

Leaning scum. He's done ok, but I don't like his case against you now, and this post:

Marcrell I am pretty sure you are town, so can we persuade you for a tn vote if the deadline approaches? Egg, me, awe and Arma (no idea what boonskies is doing) have pretty solid scum reads for tn here.

struck me as suspicious. I've seen scum do very similar things to people who seem inexperienced to then manipulate them to their side. Lost a lylo that way once(off-site).

This is the first time that Marcrell expresses suspicion of Shaded despite town reading him all game prior. This is also the first post after Shaded had bussed Armageddon. Maybe Marcrell decided to bus after he saw his partner do the same. More potential bussing here;

Spoiler: Bussing?

Ugg, I guess there isn't any way to get out of this anymore ....

Wicked, if you are town like you say you are, you just narrowed down the pool of potential candidates and I am likely to be killed anyway, so there really isn't any point to theory discussions although I would have much rather stayed under the radar.

I am the Macho Doc and I protected Wicked last night.

I wasn't sure if I was going to do this today, but you've forced my hand. I'm the macho doc, this guy is scum. Coincidentally, I actually did protect Wickedjsrt last night. Awestfie night 1, Ragnarok night 2, forgot about the game night 3 and didn't protect anybody.

I'm fairly sure he thought Titus/Randomidget was his partner. It's been said, but hammer was bad, reasoning is bad, Shaded should probably die soon.

What part of my reasoning you found "bad"? It was quite a rational choice from my perspective.

Town shouldn't quick-hammer without a claim. Doing it out of self-preservation is scum-motivated. Everybody wants to stay alive, but town shouldn't make horrible plays to avoid it. Unless we're lynching you and that lynch will lose the game, hammering somebody early is horrible town play, and very scum-motivated.

I just realized if wicked is scum awe is not (because they would hammer Marcrell and win)

Awe you should really start trusting me because i think your worst nightmare is true. It is either Wicked & Pro or Wicked & Marcrell. Which one do you think is more probable?

This looks pretty shitty. Desperate attempt to get one person on your side.
Meanwhile Prohawk is saying he was conf town. He claimed when I wasn't on and then got credit for it. Why would I cc when people are town-reading his claim if I'm scum? Prohawk, could you list who you protected every noght, not just last night's?

TL;DR - Marcrell's interactions actually look really bad for him. Much worse than Kodama's. The most telling thing for me is how he town reads both Shaded and Armageddon, but immediately retracts both when challenged - he doesn't do that with any of his other town reads. I also find it weird that Marcrell starts attacking Shaded after Shaded bussed Armageddon.

+Scum points for Marcrell x3

[Wickedestjr]

I was literally 50-50 after checking Kodama earlier today. But now I'm growing confident that Marcrell is scum. Maybe 80-20 now.

Three most telling things for me;
Marcrell's voting followed Armageddon and Shaded

perfectly

on day 1 as if their voting patterns dictated his.
Marcrell town read Armageddon and Shaded but retracted both town reads when challenged. Never retracts any other town reads like this iirc.
Marcrell first attacked Shaded after Shaded attacked Armageddon, as if Shaded's bus demonstrated that it was okay for Marcrell to bus.

If Marcrell is town, then those are three big coincidences.

[Wickedestjr]

I thoroughly examined Armageddon's interactions with both Marcrell and Kodama. By that, I mean that I looked at Armageddon's offhand Marcrell comment.

Armageddon pretty much ignored both of them. Between the two, I'd say it's most strange that Armageddon ignored Kodama considering how much Kodama focused on him. e.g. Kodama asked Armageddon a question and Armageddon ignored it like he didn't feel the need to respond. That could be a scum tell, but not strong enough for "+Scum points".

P-edit: Okay awestfie. I should be around for a while. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts regarding the posts I've made today.

[Wickedestjr]

What do you think about Marcrell not saving anyone on night 3?
   - Do you think he would fake that, as mafia?

I don't know. That's one of the reasons why I originally felt good about his claim. Either he's trickier than he lets on and came up with that to try and fool us. Or maybe he forgot to talk to Armageddon/Shaded in the QT that night and decided that he would've also forgotten to protect if he were town. Or he just couldn't come up with an action that sounded believable. I don't know for sure. I also thought it was weird for him to say he protected Ragnarok night 2 - he would have had to think about it and realize that Ragnarok could die even with protection. If I were scum, I would have thought: Ragnarok died that night, can't say I protected him, and quickly chosen someone else.

Also, I think the fact that the Kodama replaced so early in the game with a huge lack of activity is a huge scum-tell; and that's the thing that's bothering me the most about ProHawk.

Yeah that might be a scum tell for pieguyn.

I've said this before: "Pieguyn is still around on the site and the one that went inactive seems to be Displaced; while I don't think this changes all that much, just keep in mind that: one head of the hydra has been around and didn't post at all during that time."

I forgot / didn't realize that displaced went inactive. Looking through his isolation, seems like he made posts on June 28th, nothing for a while, one post on July 8th, nothing for a while, posts on July 16th. He probably didn't post through Kodama during that time. June 28th just happens to be the last day that pieguyn posted maybe because displaced had gone inactive. Maybe pieguyn joined this game solely to hydra with displaced and lost interest when he stopped playing? Or he lost interest because he was scum...

[Wickedestjr]

Read post 887. You made good points. I agree that Marcrell/Shaded feels weird, like a rehearsed play starring two people that

absolutely aren't connected

.

"Marcrell, I don't know you and I've never talked to you before, but you seem like town. Mind hammering tn?" - Shaded

And Marcrell has been on the fence wrt all his reads. Like he's afraid his reads will receive criticism.

Honestly, my initial read going into this day was ProHawk as scum and I know he's going to "laugh" at me for saying this since he thinks this game is so "easy." But at this point I'm really unsure; I feel like most things are pointing towards Marcrell, but the replacement from Kodama and the confidence from ProHawk is what's bothering me.

I was very split coming into today, but I'm leaning towards Marcrellscum. Too many coincidences for him to be town.

It is bothersome that Kodama replaced out, but there are town explanations for that. ProHawk's certainty that Marcrell is scum and stretchy arguments are unhelpful, but I'm not sure it's a scum tell - this is win or lose regardless of his alignment, he has to survive and he has to get Marcrell lynched. I don't think it's a scum tell that he'll do anything to get Marcrell lynched because if he's town, it's confirmed to him and it has to happen if he wants to win.

[Wickedestjr]

If you remove the word scum in that, I did pretty much call it on day 1; since we are technically partners here.

Haha, yep. We are mason partners right now.

P-Edit: Cool, you're still here. I thought you left because of how long I took to post.

Here now, but unfortunately in ~10 minutes I'll have to leave for two or three hours.

[Wickedestjr]

Looking at Shaded's interactions now. It's possible that he planned on town reading and protecting both but decided to bus Armageddon when it looked like he was doomed.

Spoiler: Defending a partner?

Marcrell's ISO looks null to me. I really do not understand the case against him.

What don't you understand?

I will try to explain by quoting your reasons:

I apologize for not explaining my vote immediately. It was 1:34 am and I just had to get to sleep.

Reasons why I voted for Marcrell;
-It does not seem like he actually has an interest in figuring out who the mafia are. He has voted his suspect and provided several other reads, however, he has not asked anyone any questions, has done nothing to really strengthen any of his reads. You'd think that he'd want to learn more about the guy he's voting at least. But I guess he doesn't.

This is true, but not indicative. We have many players that does not seem to scumhunt properly like Arma, Yankee, random, and even egg (although i read him strongly town).

-I have issue with Marcrell's vote for Stabsinthe. Stabsinthe is clearly pretty inexperienced, so the vote looks really easy. If Stabsinthe is town, then there is no difficulty for scum to vote him for such obvious/basic reasoning. I get the impression that Marcrell voted Stabsinthe because it was the easiest option. Now Marcrell has revealed that his suspicion of Stabsinthe has weakened, however, his vote remains. This seems like a minor fence sit - he has left open all of his options (keep vote on Stabsinthe or switch his vote). It looks like he's given himself room to switch his vote as soon as he notices the momentum switching. But the vote is still there in case others decide to join the wagon.

I agree with this, but he may as well considering his options and trying to read other posts while doing this. Very minor scum-tell.

-It seems like his reads are designed to bother as few people as possible. His three townish reads on Kodama, Shaded, and Egg are all popular town reads iirc. I don't think anyone has town read randommidget yet, but he has been questioned. Marcrell thinks randommidget is 'odd' for the same reason that he was questioned. 'Odd' is a fence sit word - he could say that randommidget is suspicious for the 'odd' behavior or he could say that the 'odd' behavior is odd and just odd (I have seen that before). He hasn't taken a stance yet. I can't help but think that he's waiting to see what the popular stance is before he decides his.

This looks like a behaviour of an inexperienced player. They almost always tend to follow popular opinions. Not a scum-tell for me. Also i saw many townies use the word 'odd'. Even i have used it in this game. Again, not a scum-tell for me.

Conclusion: Considering his total acceptance of your reasons and VI-like posts & defence, i would tell he is null.

tn & random's analysis will follow.

In the latter of those two quotes, note that Shaded wrote off Marcrell's suspicious behavior as inexperienced. He also says that many players here don't know how to scum hunt, so Marcrell is fine. Keep that in mind.

Kodama's change of play from first day also concerns me. He was very townish at Day 1, yet he contributed zero today, plus posting conflicting one liners.
If it had been a cult game, i would have said he has been recruited last night. 313 and 350 are totally out of context that looks like trying to divert the attention of us.

He is either trying to protect one of his pressured scummates which i think in {random, tn}, or it is just a discoordination between his hydra heads.

That's why i do not like playing with hydras. If the head's playstyles are different, when one head vanishes temporarily, playstyle changes completely and confuses the town.

This doesn't seem like bussing. In particular, I have trouble seeing him complain about his partner.

I hope this was worth the wait folks! A detailed analysis!
Armageddon: In most posts he explains his votes, asks questions, gives reasons. Much decent content. A few suspicious bumps along the way, but overall he is Town leaning.
Awestfie: Lots of questions, stimulating conversation, more hunting. I worded my earlier post badly, I meant in the same way in Thomas as you're going very hard for a lynch as soon as possible on tn today and the quickhammer on Thomas yesterday. Seems very motivated to lynch those he scumreads. Town lean.
I really regret coming on now, so tireeeedddd.
Boonskiies/TheYankeeReaper: Null. Barely any posts, not enough to go on.
Egg: His posts have content. Lots. I think especially today, after he started analyzing the lynch, he has the post numbers and analysis. Town. So definitely.
Guys, it's 12 A.M., I can't do this anymore. I'll give you the rest tomorrow, I just can't take anymore of this.

I really did not like this post. It looks artificial.

This is a really weird thing for Shaded to say when he previously wrote off Marcrell's contributions as 'inexperienced' and said many players didn't know how to scumhunt. This looks like he's opening the door for bussing.

Marcrell I am pretty sure you are town, so can we persuade you for a tn vote if the deadline approaches? Egg, me, awe and Arma (no idea what boonskies is doing) have pretty solid scum reads for tn here.

@Mod:

Kodama did not post for a loong looong time and he was not V/LA. Can you just prod/replace/bark to him?
Possibly randommidget too.

Cool, at least we got one mafia down.

@Mod

I do support replacement of Kodama.

Here he points out the Shaded was on both lynches. He says that he previously thought Shaded was the cop. Scum could be trying to put out a fire before it starts. Haven't gathered much about Shaded with a glance through his ISO, will look in more detail,

I think it is an attempt from scum to make me appear more suspicious. I know this is WIFOM but why should i kill Egg if i had been the scum, it would be too obvious with that recent post. I have a bad feeling that i have been chosen as the mislynch candidate of today by scum. Once again i request everyone to ISO wicked, especially the last day's play was hyper-suspicious.

I'm fairly sure he thought Titus/Randomidget was his partner. It's been said, but hammer was bad, reasoning is bad, Shaded should probably die soon.

What part of my reasoning you found "bad"? It was quite a rational choice from my perspective.

So... Shaded, you quick-hammered for self-preservation?

I quick-hammered because town was about to half-lose the game by lynching me and lynching a popular scum read did not seem worse than that to me. I don't see how this looks as "self-preservation" to you. If i had been lynched, we would be in the same situation as now. If my gambit had not fail, we would be close to winning the game. That was not a bad choice.

Shaded you missed my question from before; Is it more likely that Marcrell is mafia or ProHawk?

I was leaning towards you & Marcrell, but after this last page of interactions i now lean towards you & Prohawk.
My nose smells bussing here.

Awe you and me are the key here. Please hear my voice.

[Wickedestjr]

Aww shoot. Didn't mean to submit that post yet. Not sure how I accidentally did.

[Wickedestjr]

I will continue from where I left off tomorrow. I was halfway through Shaded's posts, need to finish that first. I have another question for ProHawk, but I'll ask it later.

Still leaning towards voting Marcrell.

[Wickedestjr]

2. Depends on the day. Up until his hammer, I don't recall much in the way of a smoking gun so I probably would have defended him as much as I could (this site has terrible bussing meta).

If you were scum, how would you have treated Shaded on day 5, after he had quickhammered?

[Wickedestjr]

Ok. Last question for now;

ProHawk

- At the bottom of this post, you explained that you wouldn't have counterclaimed if you were scum - instead you would have bussed Shaded for town credit. Also, in this post you pointed out Marcrell's motivation for counter claiming if he's scum. I acknowledged Marcrell's motivation yesterday - awestfie and I town read each other so it would be easy for us to win if you were confirmed town, so Marcrell had to counterclaim. Why can't I use that same logic to determine that you had motivation as scum for counterclaiming? You said that you would have bussed Shaded for town cred, but surely Marcrell could have tried the same thing. And there's no guarantee that bussing would make us town read you (it wouldn't have convinced me).

[Wickedestjr]

Continuing from where I left off earlier. Shaded's interactions... there's actually only one more comment I have to make.

I'm fairly sure he thought Titus/Randomidget was his partner. It's been said, but hammer was bad, reasoning is bad, Shaded should probably die soon.

What part of my reasoning you found "bad"? It was quite a rational choice from my perspective.

So... Shaded, you quick-hammered for self-preservation?

I quick-hammered because town was about to half-lose the game by lynching me and lynching a popular scum read did not seem worse than that to me. I don't see how this looks as "self-preservation" to you. If i had been lynched, we would be in the same situation as now. If my gambit had not fail, we would be close to winning the game. That was not a bad choice.

Two similar criticisms of Shaded by the two players in question. But one response contains significantly more effort and consideration, the response to ProHawk. Seems like Shaded was more concerned with ProHawk's consideration. Possible town tell for ProHawk.

[Wickedestjr]

If you were mafia, how would you have played differently?

Probably been more active.

I tend to check these things more when I'm in the hunted party. Probably stuck by my reads more,

finding better reasons

, instead of just running.

Please explain why you would be more active and why you would find better reasons.

Would have town-read Shaded more. I town-read him beginning of game, would probably have been more vocal with it and stuck with him for longer.

Wouldn't have hesitated as much when Shaded wanted me to vote him.

Oh? Shaded wanted you to vote him.

Is that what he told you in your scum quick topic?

SCUM SLIP!?!?!?! I was leaning towards voting Marcrell already, but unless he can come up with a good explanation for this, I'm almost certain.

[Wickedestjr]

Are you willing to lynch Marcrell right now?

[Wickedestjr]

Catching up now.

[Wickedestjr]

Two other things that bother me about Marcrell;
-If Shaded was scum and Marcrell was town, then why would Shaded bother defending Marcrell? Can't see his motivation there.
-Something feels missing from Marcrell's counterclaim. Surprise or frustration perhaps. Almost feels like he knew he would have to counterclaim.

I town read both scum day 1. I retracted 1, but the thought had been there.

You retracted both town reads...

[Wickedestjr]

1. He stated that he saved no one on night 3 which; I doubt scum would do. I very likely think scum would just say they saved someone who didn't die. He also said he saved Ragnarok on the night that Ragnarok died; again, I really don't see scum stating that instead of just saying he saved someone else. Town-tell.

2. The interactions between him and Shaded at the end of day 2 just seemed overly artificial and Marcrell found it odd that Shaded town-read him randomly yet he didn't point it out until the next day despite there being 2 days left on that day. If you had a concern about his town-read on you, why wouldn't you question it before hammering? Scum-tell.

3. Lack of posting (I don't think this means all that much, but he has been here since the start and already ProHawk has more posts than him) and actually just a lack of outing reads; Marcrell never really outed many reads and when he did there never really was much reasoning behind them. It felt like most time he outed reads was because he was pressured into it and not because he actually wanted to do it. To me, this looks like someone who didn't want to scum-hunt at all. Null leaning scum-tell.

Continuation of 3: Marcrell said before that he was hesitant to post some things in the fear of being night killed and never I, as town, was hesitant to post anything. As town you'd be more than willing to out your opinion to the other people in the game as it helps them read you easier; even if you think your reads and/or thoughts are bad. I'm personally not hesitant to post anything as scum, but I could see why someone would be.

I agree with pretty much everything here. *Good posting*

The site will be unavailable starting 2AM EDT on Saturday, August 9th, to address some issues we have been having lately. Downtime should be under an hour, but as with anything could extend beyond that.

Hopefully this doesn't affect us.

I should have clarified. By him, I meant tn. You can see I hesitated in voting tn.

In the post in question you were talking about Shaded and then said you hesitated to vote "him" which implies that you hesitated to vote Shaded. Not sure I believe your explanation, but it makes sense.

[Wickedestjr]

B) Hesitating to post things in the fear of being night-killed. I honestly don't buy it, here's why: even I, as scum, if I knew Marcrell was the doctor; I still wouldn't have killed him because he was one of the least town person; what would benefit me in killing him? Nothing. I don't see why Marcrell hesitated to post some things when he knew that he wouldn't be night-killed ever and that there was much better targets than him. I think someone who's aligned with town should never hesitate to post anything, even as PR, since it makes most of your post look unnatural and ultimately it just makes you look like scum.

I'm not sure about it either. Feels a little disingenuous. He said that, twice, he ignored my question to him (question regarding randomidget) because he was afraid randomidget would night kill him. I've seen power roles play reserved in the past, so that on its own doesn't bother me (even though I disagree with that technique) - but reservation to the point that he avoided talking about random or answering my question about him seems like too much.

...there's one issue I've with ProHawk, I disagree with the fact that he would've had no reason to counter-claim there, as scum. I think him claiming would've been perfect for scum considering letting Marcrell be clear when both Wicked and I had a pro-town game would've been suicide.

What do you think?

I agree with you. ProHawk had great motivation to counter claim as scum. Because if he was scum and didn't counterclaim then it would've been an easy win because Marcrell, a suspicious player, would have been confirmed town. I've been questioning ProHawk about this to try and see if he really believes what he's saying because I disagree with his opinion that he wouldn't have cc'd as scum. Still not sure he genuinely believes that.

[Wickedestjr]

ProHawk, I wasn't a fan of awestfie's day 1 hammer, but I thought it was a town tell and I still think it is.

Yeah, there's a huge lack of emotion, I found; from Marcrell. Meanwhile, there actually is a genuine frustration coming from ProHawk when I provoke him. I think it's possible that Marcrell is just discouraged at this point and that he sees there's no way he can win this which would match with his lack of emotions in any of his posts; they just feel entirely bland.

I agree with this completely - Marcrell's posts are missing something. I'm glad you got in that exchange with ProHawk there because I also think his frustration looks real.

[Wickedestjr]

...Marcrell is just discouraged at this point and that he sees there's no way he can win this which would match with his lack of emotions in any of his posts...

To clarify: To me, it looks like Marcrell is discouraged from his recent posts. Most of those recent posts just feel incredibly bland and to me it almost looks like Marcrell gave up, at this point. The problem with this sort of read is: I think Marcrell would potentially feel the same way as town here since he has been called scum for the last 2 (3?) days and I think it'd be normal for anyone, town or mafia, to be discouraged at this point.

P-Edit: I still believe that ProHawk would've claimed doctor here as scum, because he couldn't risk for Marcrell to be doctor here, since it would rise up some suspicion on him, considering the slot he replaced into. I think it would've been silly for ProHawk not to claim here, as scum.

I agree with this completely.

[Wickedestjr]

Vote: Marcrell

(L-1)

I'm about 70-75% certain that this is the right move. But I've considered everything and doubt I will become more confident. It's unlikely I'll change my mind in the next three days so I'm ready. ProHawk and Marcrell, sorry for keeping you guys waiting. I wanted to take the time to consider everything and there had been several distractions in real life. awestfie, I'm ready whenever you are - unless you can give me a good reason to change my mind, my vote is set.

[Wickedestjr]

Dang it

[Wickedestjr]

I knew it was weird for Marcrell to say he protected Ragna night 2 and nobody night 3 if he was scum. Also knew it was weird that ProHawk said he wouldn't have cc'd as scum... wasn't weird enough though I guess.

Good game ProHawk! I really thought you were town at the end. Props for that townish reaction to awestfie earlier. That seemed to really secure your win.

[Wickedestjr]

Wicked, I had a lot of fun playing with you and hopefully, we can play another game, together, in the future.

Likewise, had fun playing with you and hope to play with you again too. We lost, but it was great that we both trusted each other for most of the game and coming into day 5 - that almost got us the win.

That quickhammer by Shaded on day 4 was a very good move in hindsight - he probably would have been lynched on that day or the next anyway. It was convenient for scum to score the mislynch along with his already inevitable lynch. I don't think the day 4 quicklynch was town's fault (although I'm still not sure what the case against random was), we just got outplayed by scum then.

I don't recommend quick hammers on any day let alone day 1, but I really don't think that first mislynch hurt us that much. Day 1 is usually a mislynch anyway and its sole purpose is to generate information which it did, this one just generated a little less than normal.

If I had to blame this loss on something, I'd blame it on the tn mislynch and early power role claims/losses. Those two aspects of the game left us in a really bad spot coming into day 3. But it's all good.

[Wickedestjr]

This was a very fun game. It's pretty rare for me to live long as town and I thought for sure I'd be nightkilled night 2 but thanks scum for keeping me alive and letting me last this long.

bubbajack and Rob, thank you for the game!

[Wickedestjr]

I think no claiming your role unless;
..........At significant risk of getting lynched.
..........You are the leading bandwagon with very close deadline AND you are a power role.
..........We are massclaiming
..........Your claim confirms someone as scum or a townie that's about to get lynched.

Stab's claim doesn't fit into any of those categories, so I agree that it was a bad move.

[Wickedestjr]

Sorry I screwed over town. I've started to have opinions on post as I read, which helps with activity/reasons. Unfortunately, this started when I cc'es Prohawk and there wasn't much to say.

The loss is not your fault. It was just very coincidental how your voting matched the scum perfectly on day 1 and how you retracted your town reads on both scum and how Shaded's interactions with you appeared so fake. It was also hard to meta you because you've never been scum, but that's not your fault either. If you continue playing it's inevitable that you'll get better - I noticed an improvement throughout the course of this game alone. Don't worry about it.

Some suggestions; a.) If you're town, don't worry about what other players think of your contributions. If you are trying your best to scumhunt, then town will see that. b.) Don't alter your play just because you are a town power role. Play during the day as if you are a vanilla townie, any reservation will look scummy. c.) Might help to skim through parts of some other completed games (with or without knowledge of who the scum are), that helped me a lot when I first started playing.

[Wickedestjr]

gg guys, i am v/la and can not post much but i would like to congrat wicked especially, even if town lost. You are an excellent town player wicked, very good reads, super analysis.

Hey, thanks a lot I appreciate it! I thought you did a really good job of both avoiding early attention and distancing yourself from ProHawk towards the end. But I don't get it - why'd you defend against my Marcrell case if he wasn't your partner?