Open 634: Sharing is Caring (Game Over)

[Persivul]

VOTE: Blacle

I'm really sick of people declaring themselves conftown, even if they're joking.

[Persivul]

Dude, you should go and IC some newbie games if you want to be a teacher.

[Persivul]

Right now I have a very extremely weak null scum read on Maixmous, Kuroi, and Percival, and Kain Tepes. Each one of these slorts have attempted to push weak cases that no one else is being opportunist about at all.

Wow that was bad.

[Persivul]

Wgeurts. Most posts about theoretical stuffs instead of scumhunting.

IIRC I've seen him do this as town before. I don't particularly like it but it's not a scum tell.

[Persivul]

I'm so confused right now and feel like I really should be voting BW for the above.

You could do a lot worse than that.

[Persivul]

VOTE: Kuroi

[Persivul]

VOTE: texcat

[Persivul]

Blade, you need to claim..

[Persivul]

I thought that was implied, but FTR, intent to hammer.

Personally I think the guy is town trying to play too tricksy, but at this point he's going to be a distraction for as long as he's here, and his flip will help analysis. Absent a claim he needs to go.

[Persivul]

If he's not CC'd we don't lynch him, but let's think about the JK action. If he promises not to take a shot tonight we should consider not using the JK. In my experience vigs are on average negative utility, and if scum NKs him, we get an extra use of our cop or JK anyway. I'm not sure scum would want to make that trade this early, when a single conftown doesn't mean a lot. Of course, that's if we trust him not to shoot. As wild as he is I'm not sure we can trust that. But I'd hate to be wasting our shots reigning in one of our own PRs. That just doesn't make sense.

[Persivul]

No JK should def be protecting the confirmed town lol

We can't keep him alive long enough to make a difference, unless you're proposing we don't use any of our actions for cop investigations. We just protect one wild conftown every night and gain no new information from our PRs.

VOTE: wgeurts

[Persivul]

And you don't think that the limited action mechanic changes that?

Suppose we protect BW 3 nights. Then we enter D4 with 1 conftown and 1 action remaining.

Suppose we let the cop investigate 3 nights, and scum kill BW. Hopefully the cop finds scum. If not, on D4 he can claim, giving us potentially 4 conftowns (cop plus his 3 clears) and 1 action remaining. Things can go wrong with that - clears can be killed before then - but the potential is much greater this way.

Plus, it's noteworthy that BW is voting you, we find out he's a vig, and you immediately want to lock him up indefinitely...

[Persivul]

I'm not a vig but I'm not sure I would cc if I were

Why the fuck not? It's a guaranteed scum kill.

[Persivul]

Damn you're right, I felt like I'd been posting more then that.
Regarding the coasting people - I'd put Persivul in that list. He's been noticeably quiet.

Last week my cat died, my daughter had surgery, and I was working 12 hour days. Check any of my games, I was noticeably quiet in all of them.

[Persivul]

Because he could just shoot the mafia in the night,

No, as mafia has a doctor.

[Persivul]

Persivul -- I didn't really like his intent to hammer. Is he scum that knew Blade would flip town? I agree with his argument that JK should probably leave Blade alone, but don't like his suggestion that a vig should CC. As Shotty pointed out, if JK leaves Blade alone, then vig can take him out.

Yeah, except for that pesky mafia doctor...

[Persivul]

Just a quick thing before going to work.

I don't think Wgeurts should be lynched Today: he's clearly the one who needs to be Cop-investigated.
He's posting the most, therefore, he has the biggest impact to the game. If he's town, he'll be a great asset for us later and we shouldn't ignore this fact. If he's scum, he'll go down Tomorrow, after the investigation.

Opinions?

I'm cooling on gurts as well, but...who would you suggest? You're scummiest read is only null-scum.

[Persivul]

Maxous. Wgeurts is the only one who pushed for my lynch and it was indeed a terrible push. I honestly don't know how I got to L-1. Perhaps its a matter of insecurity that lead those people to be lead astray. I have to come realize that being sure of yourself in this game tends to bother some individuals.
I'm picking up what your putting down. However, I happen to think that Wgeurts is actually scum and tried to push a scum myslynch on what appeared to be a weak player(me). I think your vote would be better on Wgeurts than anything else. Wgeurts flip will give you more traction for your push on Texcat if he flips town, and it wont damage your traction if Wgeurts flips scum.
Do you agree?

D1 scum generally don't lead a lynch wagon right from the start. They wait to see how things develop and help push a wagon that's already started. If you're right that he's the only one who pushed you, that's townie for D1.

VOTE: texcat

[Persivul]

I see your point Persivul; but, if you can come to this conclusion so can anyone else, especially scum. They can and will use what town thinks is town to their advantage if they are good at being scum.

No, good scum don't rely on wifom. They only resort to it if absolutely necessary.

In Wgeurts what we have is someone who pushed a weak case on a town that was making himself easy to be myslynched.

Here you contradict yourself in the space of a single sentence. If the case on you was

weak

, then no, you weren't an

easy

mislynch. You can't have your cake and eat it too. If you purposely play scummy, then you don't gain much information from the resulting wagon.

[Persivul]

Bad vibes and I like the wagon so far.

[Persivul]

I'll be blunt, I think Persivul is scum. He hasn't done any scum-hunting nor does he interact with people. He's coasting big time, the intent to hammer and his recent jump onto texcat look awful as he explains neither. Once. Nada. "Bad vibes and I like the wagon" is not a good reason to be lynching someone, I don't understand how a logical player like him can accept someone's lynch without providing his two-cents. I know persivul's town and scum game, as town he's a lot more pro-active. As scum he coasts and makes the best of what he gets. Guess which we're seeing this game?

You're seeing the game in which my cat died, my daughter had surgery, and I've been working 12 hour days all since the game started.

[Persivul]

yeah, these 2 posts don't look great.
*and* I felt that Texcat's #307 felt kinda town.

Yet you stayed on the texcat wagon. Your presence there was part of the reason I joined it. It's odd that now you would try to disclaim the validity of the wagon to throw shade at me, when you wer eon it before me and stayed on it despite a "kinda town" post from her.

[Persivul]

why is it odd?

People aren't usually so blatantly hypocritical.

[Persivul]

VOTE: Masquerade

[Persivul]

Masquerade voted. And evidently thinks he can make every single one of my posts look scummy? No mention of L-1 with this vote.

Must I repeat a straight-forward argument that was made just a couple posts before my own?

Do you really think I would play like this as scum?

[Persivul]

Dude, I fucking get it if you have emergencies with your pets or families or whatever but if you're not going to be able to play this game, you should replace out.

Only three people have more posts than me. A couple people with fewer posts probably have more real content, but still, I'm at least in the middle of the pack as far as contribution goes. Check Masquerade's ISO and vote him if you want to charge someone with not playing the game.

p-edit: take your head out of your ass and put your vote somewhere useful.

[Persivul]

Oh please gurts, if I were scum I'd have you doing my bidding.

[Persivul]

I guess you've blocked out Open 601 from your memory.

[Persivul]

VOTE: drmyshottyizsik

[Persivul]

That instant sheep was basically me flipping off gurts...

[Persivul]

Anyway, the fact that you don't actually replace-out if you're really busy (which I believe, but I don't think it's the explanation for your play) and aren't producing content or explaining reads is concerning.

Really? Why is that gurts? Because in my experience, replace outs are more a scum than a town tell.

[Persivul]

I played badly in that game, and it's been a few months since I've not been playing awfully.

Yeah, I can see how you've improved by the way you pushed a town PR...

[Persivul]

gurts is town - he wouldn't be engaging me like this if he weren't - but he's only going to find scum if he's a cop.

BTW, I've dumped plenty of walls of content as scum, so walls don't impress me.

[Persivul]

Let me post something both terrible and useless.

Sure. Why should this game be different from any other?

[Persivul]

WTF is it with this game and people announcing wall posts?

[Persivul]

Persivul - At most, I'd say he's playing anti-town, but I don't see a lot of scum motivation in his posting.

Wowsers, someone actually considering motivation rather than just playing by the numbers.

[Persivul]

Please explain to me how you can be anti town but not mafia in a 2 faction game? Also what do you mean by the numbers? Are you say we should randomly guess all the time and ignore logic, reason, and statistics?

Anti-town simply means play that does not advance the game. Unfortunately, this isn't as easy to determine as some people think. For instance, people are saying that my lack of explanation for my votes doesn't help the rest of town understand my concerns and so doesn't advance the game. That's playing by the numbers. However, it could be that I'm voting merely to see reactions. OTOH, consider detailed charges: they do help other town understand your concerns, but they also help scum understand your concerns and adapt their behavior accordingly.

What's town, anti-town, or scum therefore comes down to motivations. Another example: it's simplistic (i.e. by the numbers) to say that I was being opportunistic by joining a wagon. You need to consider other factors: was I in danger myself? Was there another wagon going on at the same time that I might have been trying to counter? I.e., did I have real scum motivations for getting on the wagon? If not, isn't it possible that I had unstated reasons to join it, or simply wanted to see the reaction to additional pressure?

[Persivul]

Stop being bad gurts.

[Persivul]

Let's see I'm asking someone to provide content if they're town hence giving them a chance to explain where they stand and what they see and they're calling me bad. Right.

You tunneled a townie until he claimed a PR. Now you're tunneling again. You haven't learned your lesson. Stop being bad.

[Persivul]

Just ran across this from gurts in the discussion forum:

People should stop trying to act townie intentionally as town, due to that a meta can form with "how town should act" which scum players of a certain level can easily replicate as their scum-game. People should just play as they do naturally. That way people are forced to look genuine as scum which is harder and not just meet a set of standards.

Why aren't you following your own advice? You expect people to do certain things you consider townie even if they don't feel like doing it naturally.

VOTE: wgeurts

[Persivul]

Like if you're really town and you're refusing to interact and work with others you're playing awfully.

First, awful isn't necessarily scummy.

Second, it's D1. There are people who interact very little in the first day or two and then turn it on. Duppin comes to mind - useless at first, but after some flips he could figure a lot out. That hasn't been my style in the past as town or scum but I'm branching out and trying some new things.

[Persivul]

BTW I apologize if I've been rude - haven't had much sleep lately.

[Persivul]

Actually I've blacklisted radiant. More because it's pointless playing with him than the rudeness, but yeah, that's a factor too. He was banned for a couple weeks this year for behavior, and then again for discussing ongoing games.

[Persivul]

Because gurts won't get off my fucking back. I'm feeling contrarian, and as long as he acts like the boss and demands typical town content from me, I'm not going to provide it.

[Persivul]

Like what the fuck do you mean by typical town content.

Walls of analysis that everyone is announcing. I'm not in the mood. Deal with it. Or, lynch me and watch me flip town, after you've already run up a town PR.

[Persivul]

Here I am. Take the shot.

[Persivul]

So tired of your preachy BS, this is not a newb game and you aint no IC.

Bing - fucking - o

[Persivul]

BlacleWorks (6):

Alexcellent

, wgeurts, Aneninen,

KainTepes

, SirCakez, texcat (L-1)
texcat (3): KuroiXHF, Maxous, Persivul
wgeurts (1): BlacleWorks
Maxous (1): Clumsy
KainTepes (1): drmyshottyizsik

Not Voting (1): Masquerade
________________________________

texcat (6): KuroiXHF, Maxous, Persivul,

KainTepes

,

Alexcellent

, Masquerade (L-1)
wgeurts (2): BlacleWorks, Clumsy
Aneninen (1): drmyshottyizsik
Persivul (1): texcat
drmyshottyizsik (1): SirCakez

Not Voting (2): Aneninen, wgeurts

________________________________

BW is now conftown. It's doubtful his entire wagon is town. The BW L-1 is at post 226. The texcat is at 318. That's way too fast, so there's most likely scum on there too. The two wagons have Alex and Kain in common. Alex had scum read both BW and texcat as early as 120, so his presence isn't troubling. Kain's first and only reference to texcat was the vote.
VOTE: KainTepes

[Persivul]

Regarding KT: I don't give a fuck if he's going to be replaced. Look at the wagons. Look at his ISO. It's scummy. Note it NOW befoe someone comes in and cleans up the slot. I've cleaned up some very bad scum slots as a replacement. It's not difficult. In this game, all you need to do is post a wall of non-committal observations and some newbie theory and you're conftown.

@gurts: Yeah, vigs can be negative utiltity, but guess what: you knew there'd be one when you signed up, so quit whining about it. Your continued focus on it, on top of your initial knee-jerk reaction to waste actions by JKing it, is scummy as fuck.

[Persivul]

Also BW if you shoot me, we policy lynch you and then the town loses you are solely responsible. If you want to win don't be an idiot.

Fear mongering. Suggesting a PL on a PR. What would professor guerts say about such play? Pretty sure he'd call it scummy.

VOTE: wgeurts

[Persivul]

Wgeurts we're not lynching the Vig :/
Persivul - you literally went from posting a miniwall about KT to voting wgeurts in 3 posts. What's up there?

It's pretty fucking obvious - a good player came in and voted gurts, making a wagon I had deemed not viable now seem possible.

[Persivul]

Just lynch me. I have never seen so much stupidity in a single game.

[Persivul]

When I flip green, read this game in which I was scum and wguerts was town:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=62219

and ask yourself,

why did wgeurts think this was persival's scum game?

[Persivul]

I don't know if gurts is scum trying to run the town, or town trying to be a leader and not knowing WTF he's doing. Either way, he's going to lead town to a loss. When I flip, note that his two big pushes were both town. Then decide whether you think he's scummy and you want to lynch him, or he's incompetent town, and you just want to ignore his reads (or perhaps do the exact opposite of his reads).

[Persivul]

Why the doc?

[Persivul]

Hold it...because he's all concerned about the vig shot, but can't doc himself?

[Persivul]

Clotildize?

[Persivul]

will you WAGON shotty with me, wgeursts?

Eh, why not?
VOTE: drmyshottyizsik
That name is going to be a pain with the automatic votecount lol

All 3 scum in one post???

[Persivul]

VOTE: drmyshottyizsik

[Persivul]

Neither is your playing against your win condition.

That's a serious charge and it's bullshit. Flips alter the game, and allowing yourself to be lynched D1 in hope that the drivers of the lynch will be analyzed D2 is a valid strategy.

p-edit: and what BW said.

[Persivul]

If I voted for shotty now would I be hammering?

Not even close. He's at L-4. You can vote him now, we need the consolidation and you've made your point about gurts loud and clear. I think pigeon's plan is good - lynch shotty, then you can decide what to do with the vig shot.

[Persivul]

I'm not going to vote shotty.

Why not?

[Persivul]

@ texcat: You haven't been reading the thread? I understand that question from a replacement, but from someone who's been here all along, it indicates:
- you're not following the game, or
- you're his scum partner, and you hope that no one wants to be bothered repeating what's already been said, thus giving you an excuse not to join the wagon.

[Persivul]

Current reads:

BlacleWorks - conftown due to unCC'd claim

Town

Aneninen
SirCakez

Lean town

Alexcellent

Null/Need to sort

Maxous
KuroiXHF
Clumsy

Null-scum

KainTepes
Masquerade

Scum

wgeurts
drmyshottyizsik
texcat

[Persivul]

This is the day that just won't end.

[Persivul]

Add one more scum read - alex.

There have been three L-1 wagons - BW, texcat, and now shotty. Alex is the only person that was on all three of them. Gonna need to go back and see how his reads built on those.

If shotty's telling the truth, then we've had wagons on two known townies, as BW is un-CC'd. People on both of those wagons were cakez, anen, and alex.

People on none of the 3 wagons: shotty, clumsy

[Persivul]

That's a weird question considering their was only 1 kill. With the roles it's possible that that was a vig shot, but it seems more likely it's the NK.

VOTE: wgeurts

[Persivul]

Uh, the only question in the post directly above mine. dafuq...

[Persivul]

It confused me when you voted someone else.

Person A: *asks odd question.*
Person B: OMG THAZ SO SCUMMIEZ! LOLZ! *Votes Person C*

Fair enough. The wgeurts vote was a carryover from yesterday.

[Persivul]

I would like to know what people think is town about clumsy because I don't think I agree. He kinda stopped doing stuff during shotty's wagon while he wasn't scumreading him so why would he not question the votes on shotty at all? I think that's scum that doesn't really know what to do while their buddy is being lynched.

That thought has crossed my mind. As I noted yesterday, their were only two people who weren't on any of the major three wagons that had occurred at that point - shotty and clumsy. There were some clear 1v1s yesterday and these guys didn't want to take sides. That's frequently scum.

[Persivul]

You're not getting the point, but frankly, I don't feel like explaining. If you find the initial post from my ISO that should clear it up.

[Persivul]

VOTE: Masquerade

Read alex's iso, he was all over masquerade but town reading wguerts. Plus D1 busing is all the rage it seems...

[Persivul]

You've thought of me as scum more than once this game, but I don't believe you've given me a reason why.

Maybe because you're so concerned about yourself.

[Persivul]

Not JK, and yes, JK should CC.

[Persivul]

VOTE: wguerts

[Persivul]

This is a well-designed setup. I've been trying to run out optimum PR strategy but it's really tough. For instance, you first think scum would want to kill claimed PRs as they're conftown, but since that would give more shots to the cop, no, that's not necessarily the case.

[Persivul]

I realized early on that Vig shots were essentially free but I was under the impression that it only counts if vig gets the kill.

No, go back to the wiki page and read it again. If you kill scum, town still loses a shot, but scum gain a shot. IOW, the side that loses a PR gets the additional shot as compensation.

[Persivul]

Read the thread.

Here's my first thought.
Neither the JK nor the Vig should do anything Tonight. We have one single Night Action left; let the Cop do their job.
By doing so, we may have 5 conf-town player for Tomorrow if the Cop finds two Town. If that happens the game gets broken.

That was my first thought too, but if we announce this, scum can kill the JK or the vig tonight. Then the cop won't want to claim because he'll have another shot. Not saying it won't work, just saying we need to really run it out and make sure.

[Persivul]

His Twilight post looks fake knowing the flip.

Yeah, I've been thinking that if there's day talk we'll see discussion of it there.

[Persivul]

Oh happy day, the drunk is going to give me a chance to redeem myself...

[Persivul]

No, I see it as a lack of fluid logic. I base my votes based on logic and encourage others to do the same.

Didn't work out so well for you yesterday...

[Persivul]

VOTE: Persival

I am thinking the scum team is probably persival + max.

Yeah, a double bus, one person in third position, one in seventh...makes perfect sense...

[Persivul]

How come you remember where Max was on the wagon? Did you go and look?

Yes.

Was that your defence? "Oh I wouldn't really bus my partner".

Wasn't it just you who voted masq by saying that d1 bussing is all the rage? Why defend yourself in this manner when you know it is silly?

It's all the rage among bad scum players. I rarely do so. I think there was one game in which ika and some other players had a drunken meltdown and we really didn't give a fuck about the game after that and did some busing, but no, I find busing to be a last resort, certainly not a D1 strategy.

[Persivul]

Yes, we're ahead of the game now, it's probably better for cop to do an investigate then consider claiming tomorrow. Scum appear to be gurts and kuroi, but we have plenty of time. No need to rush.

[Persivul]

I'm cool with lynching wgeurts for his play and to save mod from getting a replacement, but not sure the replacement request is a tell. He's been behind in a game he's modding, although he hasn't mentioned the upcoming 2-week thing there yet.

[Persivul]

Yeah, now we're gonna have to wait for a replacement and then for their catchup. We should lynch gurts today and kuroi tomorrow.

[Persivul]

Yeah that was a scummy post. Still though, wgeurts should die. His actions all around the shotty lynch were really bad. So yeah, IMO hammer him.

[Persivul]

"Scummy" post. All I said was I am town reading him, that's all.

You said you're town reading him,

yet willing to hammer him...with 10 days left in phase

. Yes, that was scummy, and you're in my scum pool with kuroi.

[Persivul]

I'm fine with the hammer, its how you went "ugh I'm townreading wgeurts but I'll hammer anyway!" that reads bad to me.

^^This

[Persivul]

I don't like this lynch one bit. Anen misrepresented, either by mistake or on purpose, wgeurts' activity and I'm sure everybody on his wagon did not bother to check that.

So you're not reading the thread...because three of us did say that we doubted the replace out was alignment indicative in this case.

[Persivul]

I'm talking about his activity, not his request to replace out.

So you're still not reading the thread, because wgeurts was indeed inactive around the time of the scum lynch. Wgeurts admits this himself in 624: "The reason I've

gone silent

..."

[Persivul]

The only role we have that can stop a kill is JK. JK's dead. So, scum did it.

[Persivul]

I see you lack a vote on anyone yesterday. Not pushing anyone isn't much of a defense.

[Persivul]

Sorry everyone, been really busy, hopefully will have time again on Wed. Looks like Anen is town and on top of this game.

[Persivul]

Don't worry, I'm town, and should have time to play soon. I believe there's plenty of time left in phase so don't rush a lynch. I think we got cocky after the initial scum lynch, but that needs to change.

[Persivul]

Anen has seemed pretty obviously town to me all game, and Ranger's (who is conftown from claims) endorsement solidifies that. I'm comfortable sheeping them today.

[Persivul]

The shotty lynch looks bad for max. Asks for more time in 561. Defends shotty in 565. Tries to start a counter wagon in 568. Hammers without comment in 618. Gives an excuse in 629.

[Persivul]

Cakez is town. Check his D1 play. Decent pressure on multiple targets, first person on shotty, plenty of chances to move if the shotty pressure was just distancing, interactions with shotty don't read as SvS.

[Persivul]

VOTE: Maxous

[Persivul]

I like that hammer from Persivul if Max flips scum, if Max flips town then not so much.

Oh wow brilliant observation.

[Persivul]

Wow, I thought we would come in and lynch Clumsy for the win.

I had in the back of my mind that if not Clumsy, it could be Anen playing a really good scum game. Gonna have to meta him as I don't believe I've seen his scum game.

Cakez, Anen, and me were the first three on the shotty lynch, so not much help there.

For whatever self meta is worth, my views on busing - don't do it unless absolutely necessary - are pretty well-known. I just finished a perfect scum win here:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=65750

In which there were plenty of opportunities to bus, and we didn't.

[Persivul]

I've got a weird feeling that sir cakes is the last scum. His interactions with people has been limited, so it is difficult to read him and the main reason for his town read is his position at shotty's wagon, which I think we can disregard at mylo stage imo.

Yes, my town read on him yesterday was based on his place on the shotty wagon, but since all three of us were on it in 1-2-3 order, that is now meaningless.

I am just thankful that texcat left those crumbs because otherwise I can't see what could have saved this KT slot at this stage tbf. I guess he was so scummy that he got copped, I lucked out really.

Unfortunately those crumbs were obvious enough that it cost texcat her life, but yeah, at least we have one nearly conftown.

With you being basically conftown, we need to lynch today. As it is a single stray vote can't give scum a quickhammer. You're the obvious kill tonight, so we won't gain any information from the kill, and we don't have any PRs left. A no lynch only hurts us.

[Persivul]

Reading max v. anen, the straightforward conclusion is that anen is town. The only way anen is scum is if that's a pretty elaborate wifom setup.

[Persivul]

FOS: SirCakez

[Persivul]

Highly doubt Anen is scum, Max's case on Anen yesterday felt far too manipulative and dedicated to be on a fellow scum buddy. And I've had a very strong townread on him all game.
Unless Tex majorly screwed up somehow then chilled is town.
So that leaves me with Persivul, who makes a lot of sense as a Shotty buddy like I said earlier.

I could see Persivul as a busser on Shotty. He only really started pressuring Shotty after he came under a lot of pressure on himself.
Maybe Max/Persivul?

Fact check: when I voted shotty, there were only 2 votes on me. I hadn't taken a lot of pressure at that point.

[Persivul]

Yeah, if Anen metadives me I'm confident he'll conclude I'm not scum.

[Persivul]

So your theory is that I was scum taking pressure, and in order to divert attention from myself, I lynched a scumbuddy with a better PR than me.

[Persivul]

UNVOTE:

Urgh

probably legit then. I'm not Vig.
Still think wgeurts is town

Interesting tell that I picked up on doing meta. I only see the

Urgh

when you're scum:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p7753973
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p7699410
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p7697752

I haven't found a town game with the

Urgh

, but to be fair I skipped over some games, particularly marathons.

[Persivul]

Urgh, let's see if Anen thinks it's funny.

[Persivul]

I just hope anen isn't scum and I feel he isn't as well.

If he is, well done, because I don't see it. In doing meta on him his scum and town games were pretty close, but I believe I saw a couple slight differences in his scum game that I don't see here.

[Persivul]

Sir Cakes also used "Jeez" is that scum tell? I don't know I am just asking.

He didn't use it in any of the three scum games above, so I'd say no.

Usually when I see a peculiar word and do meta on it, it turns out neutral. A couple times I've found real tells. I generally keep them to myself for future use and just lynch the person on other evidence, but since this wasn't my towniest game I decided to use this tell on Cakez here and now.

[Persivul]

Cakez, what's your position on busing?

[Persivul]

Check out the Kuroi lynch. Cakez just voted (interestingly with an Ugh instead of an Urgh), while I was beginning to interact with her. She was lynched in less than 12 hours.

[Persivul]

Regarding persivul, didn't like him calling anen "a good player" it is not known whether anen is town/scum so calling anen a good player implies that pers knows anen's alignment. I am not sure if I am reading too deeply into this.

I'd say you're reading too deeply into it. In my experience, Anen is good at reading people - a good player - so if I'm reading him as town, then sheeping him was a reasonable strategy when I didn't have time to look closely at lynch candidates.

The main thing that concerned me about Anen at this point was...why is he still alive? The problem with a good player being obvtown is that: if town, they tend to get NK'd well before endgame; if scum, the question arises - why haven't you been NK'd yet? In this case, PRs have been killed the last three nights, so it makes sense that Anen's still alive.

Personally, I can play as obvtown, but I don't do it as town because: as noted above, it leads to early NKs; and, by nature I sometimes just like to post off the top of my head, which leads to some slop which isn't obvtown, but it takes too much thought to avoid it. So, I don't take NKs, but the downside is that I get in the position I'm in now - convincing people I'm town after a game that wasn't obvtown.

[Persivul]

I didn't expect Blacle to quick hammer and I don't think anyone else did either.

I didn't vote. TBH I probably would have voted Kuroi eventually, but we had a whole phase to work with.

You didn't expect a quick hammer...well, what did you expect when you made a vote without explanation and made no attempt to pressure or question her?

The fact you're trying to use the ugh/,urgh thing as some sort of scum-indicative thing is terribly scummy.

Why? People behave differently as scum than as town. That's the basis of this game. Part of that is posting style, including word choice. As scum, you already know the answer. But, you know that you shouldn't know the answer. So, you add an Urgh in to make it appear you're unsure of yourself. It's probably a subconscious thing. You likely didn't know you were doing it until I pointed it out.

[Persivul]

First, the site has spoiler tags for a reason.

Guy went literally everywhere but the kitchen sink with his votes, including voting all three PRs and both mislynches of Day 2/3 at some point.

Guilty as charged! Town is motivated to go literally everywhere early in the game to form reads. Scum don't have that motivation, which is why voteparking is considered scummy.

[Persivul]

I say ugh/argh/etc as both alignments all the time.

In my search you say Urgh only as scum (again I omitted marathon games but believe I checked the rest in your history). I just chacked several games for Argh and couldn't find any, town or scum. Ugh isn't easily searchable as it turns up though, enough, etc. and so returns too many hits.

I could go dig up quotes of it but it would be a waste of time.

It would settle the issue. That's not a waste of time. Past games aren't cleanly laid out for us, and I admittedly skipped over marathon games. I believe I was pretty thorough (another ugh word), but I may have missed something.

[Persivul]

(1) Re-examining the VCA

We can see that Shotty was sitting on the Persivul-wagon for a long time. I still don't know why that wagon stopped. It may have been a cross-bussing [if so, scums picked Shotty instead of Persivul because a Framer is worth less than a Rolecop?] or it may have been a real counter. SirCakez was the starter of the Shotty-wagon, on the other hand. If he's scum this was a terrible strategy – unless he was afraid of leaving the wagon. Basically, Day1 could go in either way.

Day2 still tells me that SirCakez can't be scum. (Remember the pairing I posted before.) In 735 there were two wagons and both of them were on Kuroi. By 856 both of them jumped on Wgeurts – but both of these wagons were on town! It was an unnecessary move to jump on the other wagon for

both of them

; Wgeurts would have been lynched without any of them anyway.

I had started a PBPA on Cakez, but when looking at my own ISO, most of the points on Cakez also applied to me, so I dropped it. So, I can get what you're saying here. But...

As for Day3, I still think Persivul looks worse. What if he was intentionally away from the Kuroi-wagon? He posted early-Day3 but did nothing afterwards. He may have done so (being absent) for town credit.

WTF? I posted early D3 but did nothing afterwards

because D3 only lasted 11 hours due to a lynch including Maxous and Cakez

. You're clearly confbiasing me with this point.

Further, as scum I would rather be sure of the lynch then get towncred for being off it. Check out this scum game which just finished:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=65750

I was on every lynch. Check out D4 specifically. The lynch took less than two days, and a scum buddy and myself were the last two people on it. For me, lynching trumps town cred.

Also note that on D3 I had a distancing vote on a buddy but changed it late in phase to get a no lynch. Busing isn't my thing.

Day4's hammer from Persivul is another thing which looks scummy.

Double WTF. There was an L-1 wagon which included a conftown and my two strongest town reads...

and he flipped scum

. That looks

scummy

to you? Again, you're confbiasing at this point.

[Persivul]

No, it reads to me like trying to force a wagon through anywhere you can

In my experience, scum don't try to force wagons through anywhere they can on D1. They apply minimal pressure and wait to see what develops.

before ending up having to settle for Shotty when you became a leading wagon and needed to take pressure off yourself.

Again, it's ridiculous - in general, and for my scum game specifically - to theorize that I'm scum who needed a counter wagon...

and I went to a scum buddy for the CW

. CWs to scum are town. I was the CW to shotty, who was scum. That makes me town.

[Persivul]

Persivul.

Naked votes in 132 and 181.

233 is horrible: "I thought that was implied, but FTR, intent to hammer. Personally I think the guy is town trying to play too tricksy, but at this point he's going to be a distraction for as long as he's here, and his flip will help analysis. Absent a claim he needs to go." (About Blade) – Typical rolefishing and terrible reasoning.

If I'm scum, I'm a rolecop, and wouldn't need to rolefish.

237 is just as bad. Calling a Vig negative utility and persuading him NOT to shoot? WTF!

Our vig has killed 1 town and 0 scum. IIRC it would have been two town if our JK hadn't needed to waste a shot blocking our own vig. Yes, vigs are negative utility. Even this late in the game, and wielded by Ranger, a good player, it resulted in a town kill. If I drew vig in this setup I would just view it as a means to conftown myself if necessary by claiming, and nothing more than that.

His interaction with Shotty: 247, 286. Sounds fabricated.

303, when he was asked about his vote for Texcat, he answered: "Bad vibes and I like the wagon so far.". Then moving to Masquerade in 341, another naked vote.

Voting for Shotty in 355 (naked, but check out the previous post too! From SirCakez!) 404 may have been coaching (knowing there's no Daychat and at that point he was voting for Shotty).

I'm both coaching shotty and busing him?

[Persivul]

No, it reads to me like

trying to force a wagon through

anywhere you can

In my experience, scum don't try to force wagons through anywhere they can on D1. They apply minimal pressure and wait to see what develops.

before ending up having to settle for Shotty when you became a leading wagon and needed to take pressure off yourself.

Again, it's ridiculous - in general, and for my scum game specifically - to theorize that I'm scum who needed a counter wagon...

and I went to a scum buddy for the CW

. CWs to scum are town. I was the CW to shotty, who was scum. That makes me town.

And you sure were

putting minimal pressure down

with those naked votes everywhere

I went over this earlier. Shotty was clearly going down within a day or two, you were still savable, no other wagon was viable when you were the leading wagon. Makes the most sense to start bussing there. This is supported by your complete lack of pushing Shotty before (aside from your "flip off wgeurts" vote).

Trying to force a wagon through

and

putting minimal pressure down

are clearly contradictory. You're now just trying to sell any narrative that comes to mind.

[Persivul]

Post-edit. Persivul, why did you pick those parts of my post?

They're the parts that could be replied to objectively. The rest was mostly opinion.

Regarding self-meta: saying

believe me, this isn't my scum meta

isn't worth anything, but that's not all I did. I linked to a recent (concurrent actually) scum game and encouraged you to look up my scum games yourself.

I've also posted my position on busing in MD:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p7553731

In a 10:3 game:

If you don't bus D1, town needs 6 out of 8 votes to lynch scum D2.
If you do bus, town needs 6 out of 9.

That difference is a lot bigger than it might appear.

Here's what I said about it in Blitz 1, where I was scum with Ranger:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p7366030

Neither of you seem interested in bussing, but I still want to say: DON'T BUS! People think it's clever but in most cases it's stupid. Now, I don't mean we have to town read each other. I mean no votes, or at least no votes that you can't reasonably take back if a wagon builds.

The math speaks for itself. Assuming our kill goes through, it's 8:3, with 6 needed for a lynch. If we don't vote each other, that means town needs to get 6 of 8 people to agree to lynch one of us. To mislynch, we just need a minimum of 3 of their 8 to join on. The math is well in our favor. Our biggest concern now is a cop.

I don't want to imply that not busing is a trust tell for me - I believe I mentioned a weird game in which Aronis and I bused each other - but I have a long history of being strongly opposed to it. I suspiciously switched my vote from a buddy to avoid busing in my most recent game. Yet, here, if I'm scum I bused not once, but twice.

Basically, you're focusing on little things that I posted while working long days (I'm a corporate tax accountant), but discounting the big factors, and it's going to cost us the game.

[Persivul]

Lynching a scum buddy is busing, and it's something I don't do.

[Persivul]

Neither of your votes on scum looked like serious bussing. Max was clearly the lynch for the day as was Shotty. You weren't an actual strong pusher on either, and you clearly attempted to avoid voting Shotty aside from your joke vote for an extended period of time.

I avoided voting shotty until he was the clear lynch for the day? Considering I'm the third person on a 7-person wagon, that's ridiculous.

[Persivul]

Whoops that was my bad.

That happens when you're just making it up as you go.

Max was 100% the lynch for the day though.

So why didn't you vote him?

Also, why did you say that I'd look good if Max flips scum? It was apparently a lie, as now you're pushing me.

About bussing - you yourself admitted you have bussed as scum before. Just because you don't do it often doesn't give you this big clear and you're acting like it does.

If someone looks at my links and reviews my scum games, then yes, it should give me a big clear.

[Persivul]

I really don't like how Persivul keeps explaining he'd never bus. He also seems to discredit whatever SirCakez says. These are strengthtening my scumread and I'm willing to vote for him.

This is interesting. I have objectively demonstrable meta which indicates that I'm town, but you "don't like" that I bring it up.
I have Cakez as scum by POE and I'm pointing out errors and inconsistencies in his posts, and you don't like that either. That's worse than the actual errors and inconsistencies.

Assuming you're town, I'm beginning to believe you when you say you're not a very good player.

[Persivul]

Persivul's play appears to be "off" because his planned mislynch may have been Clumsy.

Did you ever consider that maybe scum!Persivul's play appears to be off because I'm not scum?

You claim you're not confbiasing but yeah (again assuming you're town), you are.

[Persivul]

@Anen - see cakez last post above. It's discrediting what I say. It's not the first post like this. Are these posts likewise strengthening your scumread on cakez?

[Persivul]

Sooooo, an unrelated question to both cakes and pers. Would you guys consider yourselves good at LYLO/MYLO as town?

Unfortunately, no. In the last one that I recall, me and Firebringer were at each other's throats but were both town. Eventually FB voted me, scum hammered and we lost.

In this game, I'm on cakez not not so much because I can see him as scum through PBPA, but moreso through POE. I'd estimate the chances that you and anen are town as:

chilledtea - 95%. Multiple pleas from the cop that you not be vigged most likely mean a cop inno on you, BUT... it could be something else, for instance she planned on investigating you that night so a vig shot would waste two town shots.

aneninen - 80%. Voted both scum, the 1v1 with with maxous appeared genuine, and ranger, who is a good player, strongly endorsed him. What's bothering me now is that he's reading me on facts rather than motivations.

The main town factor for cakez is that he voted shotty D1. But, that's nullified, because me and anen are also on the shotty wagon early. A couple factors indicating he's scum:

Urgh - I guess this doesn't impress you and anen that much, but to me it's important. People develop unconscious tells when they're deceiving. Suppose you played poker with cakez and noticed that sometimes when he raised he said Urgh before doing so, and sometimes he didn't. You would then watch to see if the Urgh correlated with truth (a good hand), deception (a bluff), or nothing - it was just a random thing he sometimes did. Point being that this isn't some weird and useless method of analysis as cakez wold have you believe it. Real people use such methods to win real money.

Max - not voting him, but excusing that by saying it was clear that max would be the lynch that day. It was also clear that kuroi was going to be lynched when he was, but cakez had no problem voting kuroi.

New topic - have you read alex's ISO? This was the only NK that wasn't a PR. So, why was he selected?

In 382 he had town leans on me, anen, and cakez, so there's no smoking gun. But, note that as the day progressed, he actually hard defended me in 385, 391, and 483. Why would scum!pers accept a NK on alex, who was my main advocate at the time?

[Persivul]

VOTE: Masquerade

Read alex's iso, he was all over masquerade but town reading wguerts. Plus D1 busing is all the rage it seems...

Do people seriously think that I bused a scum partner on D1...then pointed out that D1 busing is a thing?

[Persivul]

Cakes doesn't seem to be scum. If pers is not scum, anen is so I need to see anen vs pers. I am re-reading through day 2 and cakes seems alright in his approach, can't see anything scummy.

Check out the progression (or rather lack thereof) of cakez' scum read on Masquerade. I haven't brought it up because I also got on Masquerade with little explanation, so it's a wash if you're just looking at me v. cakez. If you're bringing Anen into it, then I'll have more to say on cakez.

[Persivul]

Also check out D3, in which kuroi was lynched in less than 12 hours.

Cakez put a vote up with no explanation. Later max put it at L-1. A little over 4 hours separated the L-1 and the hammer.

I checked cakez' activity in that period, and by my count he made

14 posts

in other games in that 4 hour period.

He certainly checked the game in that period, and kuroi pointed out that she was at L-1.

So, why didn't he unvote?

[Persivul]

I mean cakes actually tells the vig to shoot masq at the end of day 1

And what was his reasoning for that?

[Persivul]

Also check out D3, in which kuroi was lynched in less than 12 hours.

Cakez put a vote up with no explanation. Later max put it at L-1. A little over 4 hours separated the L-1 and the hammer.

I checked cakez' activity in that period, and by my count he made

14 posts

in other games in that 4 hour period.

He certainly checked the game in that period, and kuroi pointed out that she was at L-1.

So, why didn't he unvote?

This is going into danger territory but I will see if there is any truth to this.

And what did you find?

[Persivul]

Add one more scum read - alex.

In fact add sircakes to the group as well.

Also, I will take the responsibility of the hammer vote. At present the intent is for persivul, but I am at around mid day 4 with the re-read, and intend to complete it before the lynch.

Anen, if possible I would like the link to that game where max was scummy but town.

What did you think of D3?

[Persivul]

So, I'm scummy for...

Being on both scum lynches...?

...despite provable meta that I'm against busing?

Killing Alex N1 after he was hard defending me?

Not being on the D3 quicklynch?

I get that my tone was not particularly townie this game, but facts need to trump tone. This is my first scumday. I haven't learned much in that time, but I have learned that when the objective facts point one direction, and my gut points another, it's usually my gut that's wrong.

[Persivul]

Yeah this was bs. Pers is VT so this makes no sense.

Why not?

[Persivul]

Because VT's don't think about their survival, at least they shouldn't. If they get taken out instead of PR, it is a worthwhile trade any day of the week. In fact, VTs are known to play as obvtown as possible.

There's more than one way to skin a cat. Are you new or an alt? People don't always do what they should do. You're working from formulas rather than considering individuals.

Here's my last game as a VT:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=65700

It reads much like my play in this game. Votes with little explanation. Hammered a wagon I hadn't been pushing, and it was scum (interestingly, it was Cakez). I was finally taken out D4 by a 1 hour and 5 minute quicklynch which was 3/4 town. So, I was VT, but yeah, people just going by tone thought I was scum.

You and/or anen will now pull out a cliche on self meta and say this is worthless. I've done the same myself in the past. But I've since learned that, when people aren't doing their meta homework themselves, a player does need to bring it up. You shouldn't trust it on my word. Read it yourself. My play in my most recent VT game should mean a whole lot more than basic theoretical views of what a particular role should or should not do.

[Persivul]

I am not an alt. I guess new describes me better.

I think you are missing the point. I don't think you could have purposefully played as obvtown. If you could have as a VT you would have.

LMAO - I can't play as obvtown?

Here's a game in which I was scum, and I was so obvtown that

a doctor protected me on the final night of the game

:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=62219

Just because someone can play obvtown doesn't mean that they always do it. You're looking at general theory rather than me as a specific player, and your theory isn't correct anyway. Maybe you don't care about meta, but a lot of people do. If you obvtown it every time as VT because you'll take a kill instead of a PR, you're fucked when you actually are a PR, because scum who know your meta will know you're a PR if you don't town it up enough.

Some people who can obvtown it up don't just because they want to try something different.

Some people who can obvtown it up don't because RL interferes and they just don't have the time or energy.

[Persivul]

hy did Max not jump on the counterwagon then?

Unless you're scum, then his scum buddy was already on shotty and was apparently staying there, so he saw that the bus was rolling and he jumped on to get some town cred - which did get him pretty far in the game.

[Persivul]

Your vote on shotty was the one with the least amount of conviction, it was a simple naked vote. I actually don't see any case or attack you made on shotty. It was very similar to your vote on maxous.

Exactly. Why would scum!pers kill off his buddies, but not even do a big push so he could get serious town cred for it?

Pedit : Hmm...ok. In this particular game you didn't play as obvtown, and maybe it was because you couldn't. That is what I wanted to say, not that you couldn't have played as obvtown ever.

If you're referring to circumstances - yes, I was too damn busy at work (I'm a CPA) to obvtown it up in any of my games, but you can see that I was indeed a VT in Mini 1774.

[Persivul]

1) Max : Sudden townread of persivul. Reluctant vote on shotty. This matches with reluctant vote by pers on shotty.

First, white knighting is a thing.

Second, I was third person on the shotty lynch. I wasn't reluctant.

[Persivul]

I gave you my most recent town game a little while ago. Here's my most recent scum game:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=65750

If you're interested in tone, read my ISO in each, particularly early, and see how they compare to this game.

Anen, I want your opinion on this too.

[Persivul]

Your third vote might have been there but you never pushed for shotty. Anen pushed, sir cakes pushed, but your vote was a sheep vote. Just like the one you did on wgeurtz. It was an empty vote. After Maxous, and masquerade's vote yours was the most suspicious one.

And again, what is more consistent with bussing: just sheeping without explanation, or really pushing in order to get town cred?

From the wiki article: "Bussing is the act of distancing yourself from your scum partners, usually by helping to lynch them (

and hopefully playing a major role in convincing others that they are worthy to be lynched

)."

You note yourself that I didn't play a major role in the wagon.

OTOH, Cakez clearly wanted credit for the shotty wagon - see 354 for one example.

You're seeing the right facts here, but drawing the wrong conclusion.

[Persivul]

Oh I just found a game where I said urgh as town that Persivul conveniently missed
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... h#p7655582
So there ya go
Also I said it in a marathon game as town as well but Persivul admitted he wasn't counting that at least

Fair enough. I likely missed it because it was on the second page of the ISO, and usually ISOs are all on one page.

[Persivul]

You certainly seemed more cheerful in that game, persivul, it might have been because all your scum buddies were alive till the end though.

1. I was cheerful right off the bat in that game, and pissy in this one.

2. My scum buddies were alive til the end in that game because I don't kill my scum buddies.

You did say lurking was a legitimate tactic and you did lurk in this game throughout day 4 where max was getting pressurized. Sure you say you were busy but scum would say that as well and we have no offensive against anyone else - by PoE too, we have to zero in on you.

I have the most posts in the game, and have been in the top few in post count throughout the game.

[Persivul]

That's not a valid defence against lurking - most posts don't mean that you weren't lurking on day 4.

I did the count, and before the lynch on D4, Cakez had 8 posts to my 6. In twilight, he had 2 to my 1. These aren't significant differences, even on my quietist day. Or rather, quietist apart from the D3 quicklynch.

Also, have you checked the timing of this D4 v. the scum game I was lurking in? You get busted if you only lurk in one game, as Cakez was busted with D3.

But it is true that you were cheerful in that game and pissy in this game. Wonder why.

Because people don't like lynching players that they're having fun with, and as 1 of 3 scum I feel more obligation than I do as 1 of 10 town. Actually I'm not personally invested in this game, but I do owe it to the townies in the dead thread to make a due diligence defense.

[Persivul]

So vote me, moron. I've done what I could. At this point I'm looking forward to the

I told you so

to two of you.

[Persivul]

By good thing did you mean townie thing?
I too found it weird that Persivul hadn't posted anything about Max/Clumsy before being asked.
Persivul, why did that happen?

Why do you ask? You're clearly confbiasing, another example being:

(3) That means nothing. Could have been WIFOM or the scumteam may have thought Alex was a PR. For example.

Everything in the game is subject to wifom. Why bother pretending to analyze when you're willing to play the wifom card on facts that don't fit your predetermined conclusion?

[Persivul]

I can look at the Persivul game when I get home Anen but be forewarned I'll probably be conf biased when I look through.

No, as confbias only applies to town.

[Persivul]

Anen, waiting for cakes is the best option. Although I actually don't like being asked that. Feels like buddying

Maybe he asked because you've claimed leadership, for instance in 1120: "I will take the responsibility of the hammer vote."

[Persivul]

Yeah, you're adding in a bit of CYA language now that it's come to voting.

[Persivul]

You didn't have to add in the if's and denounce your leadership.

[Persivul]

Assuming chilled is town, the last scum is doing a nice job of holding back and not being overlay anxious for a lynch. Well done.

I suppose I shouldn't go down without a vote on the board. I'd say chances are cakes 75%, anen 20%, chilled 5%.

Typically that's seen as normal town uncertainty. When I do it, it's interpreted as widening the lynch pool for some reason. As if scum need a wide lynch pool in mylo/lylo.

VOTE: SirCakez

[Persivul]

Conventional wisdom is that a VT should town it up. Persivul didn't town it up. That's evidence that pers is scummy.

Conventional wisdom is that a busser should make a strong push. Persivul didn't make a strong push on shotty - Cakez did. That's evidence that

pers is town

cakez is scum

there are other kinds of bussing.

Chilled, when you say there's nothing pointing to cakez being scum, the fact is that you're denying factors that point to cakez as scum.

[Persivul]

Looking at cakez' ISO:

55 - starts the shotty push on a weak pretext - whether VI specifically refers to town or is just a way of calling someone stupid

137 sounds forced - "I thought I posted my reads earlier but apparently not." It's only his 8th post and the 137th post overall - why would you think you've already posted a reads list? How can you not remember whether you did so or not in the previous 7 posts?

186 - interaction with shotty is bad

205 - switched to BW becuase "Yeah this is absolutely ridiculous," then blatant rolefishing in 231 - "Someone just give intent to get the claim."

258 - with claim in hand he moves back to shotty.

265 - says that I've been "noticeably quiet." Prior to that he had 16 posts, I had 13 - not much of a difference, shows he's not really paying attention to the thread.

293 - gives suggestions on the cop target to make it easier for the framer to get a hit

311 - "Why is Shotty being allowed to coast like this?" As we've discussed, bussing is most effective if you get credit for pushing the wagon. But, he doesn't have a real case to push, so we get general statements like this.

313 - 314 - 315 - These are horrible in hindsight. Cakez wants a shotty wagon, but all he can come up with for a reason is that shotty isn't contributing.

354 - He can't come up with a good reason to push shotty, but he wants that town cred when shotty eventually flips, hence another general complaint as in 311 - "Why can't I get this shotty wagon going jeez"

General comment - most of his posts are one or two lines.

489 - "A Shotty lynch is good though" - Like 354 and 311, he doesn't have a case on shotty, but it's like he knows a shotty lynch is going through, knows shotty is scum, and wants the town cred for it.

546 - asks for a vig shot on Masq without reason given

563 - more bad interaction with shotty

564 - this one's really bad - "Shotty is strong scum for me obviously" - why strong scum? You keep telling us what a great lynch he is, but your only arguments are that he's not active enough, and the VI thing that you dropped a long time ago. But then he goes on to say, "Pers is nullish town, not very strong." But he previously said about me:
359 - "I was giving Persivul some slack since he said he had a lot of stuff going on irl but that instant sheep seems really questionable."
425 - "Persivul why is your ISO completely devoid of any analysis other then on wguerts?"
447 - "Persivul's KT vote also sucks."
473 - "Persivul - you literally went from posting a miniwall about KT to voting wgeurts in 3 posts. What's up there?"
He makes more points against me in that span than he ever does on shotty...but it's still "A shotty lynch is good" in 489, and he reads shotty as strong scum, while I'm nullish town. This is a huge red flag that cakez was scum knowingly bussing.

That's good for now, I need a break.

[Persivul]

1) Pers, around mid day 1 you town read wgeurtz. What made you change your town read on him?

Suggesting a policy lynch on a PR was the main factor. That's completely out of bounds.

2) Why did you say you never bus when I managed to find a game where you did? And that took me 2 minutes to find.

I specifically noted that I had bussed previously. If I had never done so, I wouldn't be able to use it in my own defense, as it could be a prohibited trust tell.

How many of my scum games did you find? In how many did I bus? And, what were the circumstances in the game you mention? Did you read conjungo/beeboy's play? I had no choice. Not so in this game - it took a long time for shotty's wagon to take off, and there were other viable candidates.

[Persivul]

Right off the bat: Persivul made literally 0 mention of any of this until today. I was a townread of his for my Shotty push until today as a matter of fact, suspect in itself.

Yes, and now that we know all three of us were on the shotty wagon (in 1-2-3 order even) and so one of us bussed, you don't get town cred for it. That should be obvious.

[Persivul]

Continuing Cakez ISO:

570 , 589 - Odd interactions with max regarding a possible Masq lynch, calls for a vig shot on Masq.

626 - The

pretend I don't really know

twilight post.

655 - "haven't put together a readslist yet and think I should." This guy really can't remember if he has put reads lists together, indicating that he's not really making reads. Max is safely in the middle.

662 - "Someone give intent on Masq and get a claim pls"

672 - To kuroi, "you avoided the shotty wagon completely and rode his counterwagon the whole time." Kuroi was on me during the shotty wagon, so he admits I was a CW to a scum wagon.

General - a lot of 1-liners without content.

833 - Another request for intent

That's through D2. Apparently this is for Anen, as chilled has made up his mind. Without chilled, cakez can't be lynched today. But, Anen can force a no lynch if he doesn't vote for me. That puts cakez in a spot. Anen only goes the no lynch route if he thinks cakez is scum, but as basically conftown, chilled is the logical lynch. Which way to go?

[Persivul]

I've talked about D3 before but have a little more to add.

Kuroi was lynched in under 11 hours. Cakez was on that wagon, just voting and saying "Ugh back to this" in 862. There were about 4 hours between L-1 and hammer. Cakez was very active in other threads during that time. He likely knew about the L-1 (Kuroi pointed it out) but didn't unvote. The new part that I just noticed: he was back posting just 12 minutes after the hammer.

OTOH, I made two posts that day, 1 general, 1 pressuring Kuroi but not voting.

[Persivul]

Cakes why are you not voting pers if you are town reading anen?

He would rather see two votes on me first so that his is the hammer and ends the game for sure.

[Persivul]

Any vote needs to be unanimous, so you have all the time you want.

[Persivul]

And here's a suggestion of something to consider when you read.

In 920, cakez says "My lynch pool today was going to be (Max, Chilled, Clumsy) but I think Ranger's right that that was a crumb clear."

Search his ISO on max and look for a progression leading to max being first in his lynch pool - or in his lynch pool at all for that matter.

[Persivul]

Masq, wgeurts, texcat and Kuroi were all dead so my null pool turned into my scum pool.

So you didn't really have scum reads at that point. Instead of sorting your null pool, you just defaulted them to scum, except for the probable cop clear.

[Persivul]

I don't have time to read right now, but here's something.
Knowing that I'm not scum, would my previous interactions with help in anything?
Would it help if we passed this Day to see which one of us dies at Night? (Most probably the answer is no for this.)

As I see it:

You know you could lynch me right now. But, you can't lynch cakez now, because chilled isn't on board with it. So, if you go to NL, cakez will take that as you're scum reading him. He then has a tough choice. Chilled is pretty much conftown, so he's the logical kill. If he kills chilled, that leaves you, and again he has to think that you're scum reading him, else you could just lynch me now. OTOH, if he kills you, chilled has to suspect cakez because he's still alive. His only play there is to call it a wifom play by scum!pers, which unfortunately I think chilled would buy.

[Persivul]

Alternatively you just kill Chilled who is pressuring you much more then Anen and have a much easier win in 3p LyLo with Anen as Anen is questioning himself on me.

A chilled kill would be NAI for me, as it's to my benefit but also the logical play as he's the conftown.

There would be no reason for me to kill Anen.

[Persivul]

Also you are right that I would buy it.

You saying that means that a no lynch is effectively a Pers lynch. You two need to come to a conclusion today. A NL would be a waste of time.

[Persivul]

Let's see...you just said that in a me-you-cakez lylo you would lynch me. Anen is at least somewhat conflicted. So, yes, cakez would now obviously kill anen.

[Persivul]

Rather, you're

unwilling to see

one thing against him. He's played a good game, but if it were legendary, it would have been over some time ago. You're not getting off the hook that easy. You should be struggling with this more. Don't act like this is some legendary scum performance and so it's not your fault if you get it wrong. That's bullshit. I'm not saying it's an easy call. As I admitted in 1068, "I had started a PBPA on Cakez, but when looking at my own ISO, most of the points on Cakez also applied to me, so I dropped it." Anen's observation was good: "My problem is. Persivul doesn't look more town than he did. SirCakez looks more scum than he did." I know I don't look all townie, but neither does cakez. You're fooling yourself to say otherwise.

Actually, if you had struggled with it more but then sided with cakez, I wouldn't have protested as much, and would probably be lynched by now. But you continually saying that there's nothing at all scummy about cakez pissed me off and renewed my interest.

Confirmation bias is a real thing. It's not just a mafia thing, it's a human thing. In order to improve in mafia you'll need to be able to recognize when you're doing it, and learn how to break out of it.

Cakez would have had a very good game (but not legendary - let's not get carried away) except for one thing - Anen and I were also both early on the shotty wagon, so in the end he doesn't get the town cred he clearly wanted from that lynch. But, they had to take out the PRs, so here we are. If either me or Anen had not been on that lynch, this would have gone much more smoothly for him.

[Persivul]

Whatver your still getting shot, and it's because you are pushing persivul with kuroi and not because you scum slipped. I can't trust scum slips from you people sometimes because VT's are always trying to work on their scum game...

Sure. You can shoot me. However, it is your responsibility ultimately, not mine.

Same thing applies here. You don't get to claim that you couldn't help but to side with cakez because he's some scum mastermind. Your vote is your responsibility.

[Persivul]

Oh wow.

unvote : persivul

Give me a reason then. I am all ears as to why cakes is scum.

Check my ISO analysis of him. There's plenty of reasons there. You just haven't listened.

[Persivul]

I re-read everything from day 2 and paid special attention to the ISO's of all of you guys. That is not struggling enough?

No, it's not. For example, consider that a D1 early position busser would likely push in order to get town cred. Cakez did push repeatedly, even though he had made a better case on me than he had on shotty. When I point that out, you just blow it off by saying there's different kinds of bussing. Yes, there are, but some are much more likely in certain circumstances than others. You haven't shown that you've considered that. That's not struggling with the evidence - that's ignoring the evidence that goes against your theory in hand.

[Persivul]

There is one hundred things that make me suspicious of you, and it isn't like cakes just coasted along, his activity throughout the game actually made sense.

Now that we know that one of us bussed shotty, show me how cakez' push on shotty makes sense.

[Persivul]

Let's see...you just said that in a me-you-cakez lylo you would lynch me. Anen is at least somewhat conflicted. So, yes, cakez would now obviously kill anen.

And this goes back and contradicts what he just said earlier about the Chilled kill being NAI. If I would "obviously kill Anen" then a kill on Chilled would automatically point to Persivul.

Here cakez is flailing - pointing at anything I do as scummy without really considering it. My comment in 1217 was correct at the time. Then, in 1219, chilled confirmed that he would indeed buy a wifom argument against me in lylo. That changed the analysis. Cakez should see this as a null issue, but he's getting panicky.

[Persivul]

Your reasons are terrible and I outlined how they all stunk.

As Anen said, "he broke down Persivul's posts but most of his answers lack real content."

[Persivul]

How does it not?

You gave more reasons to scum read me then you did shotty, but shotty ended up as strong scum, and you had me at nullish town.

He was coasting the whole day, no scumhunting, had terrible reactions to

being pushed by me.

Your push on him was far worse.

You hopped on

and developed a scumread on Shotty with little reasoning behind it.

You're forgetting that we know we're dealing with a bus here. A D1 early position bus is a waste unless you get town cred for it, and you don't get town cred if you don't push. By saying that I just hopped on rather than pushed is a factor indicative of me as town, while your admitted push points to you as scum.

[Persivul]

Like damn. Texcat came in and asks what is the case on shotty. BOTH pers and cakes answer it in the same way - that is very obvious and have you read the thread.

There are numerous similarities in our ISOs. I noted that some time ago, and again, that's what fired me up - you saying there's all kinds of scummy things about me and nothing at all scummy about cakez. It's ridiculous.

[Persivul]

But now you can't say that he didn't have a case.

As I've said, his case on shotty was the VI thing which was quickly dropped, and then just a general lack of scum hunting. Do you see anything else?

Do you see more arguments made against me by cakez that day?

[Persivul]

Persivul you ever gonna respond to this or just keep dodging?

I wasn't planning on doing either, but if you insist:

Persivul used a TON of bullshit in this ISO and used several points that were not scummy. He has completely avoided responding to this as well.

I found the responses so weak that it was pointless to dignify them with a response. When Anen likewise said they were devoid of content, that confirmed my opinion.

Two examples of this in here - he accused me of rolefishing by asking someone to give intent on BlacleWorks.
Here's the kicker - Persivul was the one to declare intent and get the claim!

And? I said some time ago that our ISOs had a lot of similarities. I'm not disputing that. Since Chilled thinks my ISO is very scummy, I actually like it when you point out the similarities.

Another example - he stated that "most of my posts were one-two liners". Persivul has experience with me before, this is consistently my playstyle. Trying to use it as something to back up his case is a scum move.

It was an observation for chilled and anen to do with as they like.

But you know what's scummy? Saying that someone is dodging because they don't comment on every post. Have you commented on every post that mentioned you? If not, are you also dodging?

[Persivul]

You didn't even say that though. He at least gave some reasons. You didn't, and just implied that maybe texcat is shotty's partner while going for KT's lynch.

He, meanwhile town read the person who was willing to go on a wagon he believed to be on scum and didn't move from there.

Two words. First one begins with FUCK. Second one ends with YOU.

You are wasting my fucking time. I'm trying to save your ass from a loss, but every time you show that maybe your mind is opening up a tiny bit, you just go back to questioning me and giving Cakez a free ride.

No one in the dead thread/aftergame can say that I didn't make a reasonable effort at this point. I'm done.

[Persivul]

VOTE: Sir Cakes

Nice. Even if you guys end up blowing it, you get props for getting this far. I was telling my wife that you were playing fine for your experience, but that wasn't going to be good enough for this situation, so this is a pleasant surprise.

[Persivul]

N2 must have been clumsy or anen by PoE. N3 would just be guessing.

[Persivul]

Uh, because tex was on the D3 kuroi lynch and she presumably wouldn't lynch someone she had an inno on.

[Persivul]

Yes, maybe she was JK'd, or maybe there weren't shots left. Also I'm reading into the fact she didn't give any clues D3, and could be wrong about assumptions. What difference does it really make?

[Persivul]

Bad answer. If she had had a new result she would have crumbed it instead of posting a naked vote.

Except...she didn't crumb her result on chilled in her first post of D2. Rather, she waited until he was threatened. Crumbing in first post is not an automatic. Factors to consider include the likelihood that the target will be mislynched (if you targeted someone generally town read on a hunch, it's probably not necessary to crumb the result), and the likelihood that you'll be lynched yourself.

[Persivul]

This is horrible.
SirCakez and Persivul are just mirroring each other. When Persivul's pressurized, SirCakez does almost nothing. When SirCakez gets pressurized, Persivul does almost nothing.

You know what's horrible? When chilled votes cakez, you said he ninja'd you, indicating you had been planning on voting cakes. You wouldn't be putting someone at L-1 if you weren't comfortable with lynching them. Yet, he remains unlynched.

[Persivul]

Taking your time to make a decision is fine, but putting someone at L-1 in mylo implies that you've made a decision, and saying that you ninja'd his vote implies that he was going to put cakez at L-1. I get that it's tough to be the one pulling the trigger, but regarding this:

SirCakez and Persivul are just mirroring each other. When Persivul's pressurized, SirCakez does almost nothing. When SirCakez gets pressurized, Persivul does almost nothing.

I have 180 posts and cakez has 140. I can't speak for cakez, but it seems to me that enough information is there from the course of the game, and the beginning of this day. Lack of information isn't the problem. What we do at this point when the other is "pressurized" is insignificant compared to what's already out there.

[Persivul]

This is pretty silly though. A hammer wasn't going through without both you and Anen voting. Witholding my vote just so I could hammer as scum would be pointless.

Not really, and I saw ChilledTea explaining it later.

Town doesn't like to be the hammer in mylo because most people fear a loss in that situation more than they crave success. We see that in this game, where you were ready to put Cakez at L-1, but not ready to hammer him when chilled beat you to it. It's not just a mafia thing, it's a human thing. Scum know this and so they want to be the hammer. Note that I put a FoS on cakez early, and later put a vote on him without prompting. When he was asked why he hadn't voted, he just said

oh yeah I forgot

or some such and put up a vote, without explanation.

Still a null at best.

Hate to say it but that question was really bad, and I would have made the same response as cakez.

Cakes, do you know that persivul is scum, or do you feel that persivul is scum?

Both

At this state of the game this made no sense.
ChilledTea is not scum, nor me. So if SirCakez is town he

must

know Persivul is scum (and vice versa).

It's a safe scum response. He has a pattern of those. For example, his

I don't know

in response to chilled's question on possible cop targets wasn't a good response, as you said - it was a

safe

response.[/quote]

Ugh, I didn't like this at all.

Would you prefer no proactive discussion, and just safe, calculated responses to others' posts? That's what cakez is giving you. Which is scum more motivated to do?

Good answer.

No, it's a safe answer.

Bad answer. If she had had a new result she would have crumbed it instead of posting a naked vote. His later post about the same topic was better.

Already noted that in her case this is incorrect, as she didn't crumb chilled in her first post that day, and we all agree that she did crumb chilled later in the day. You have to move past the cliches and look at the individual.

I too have a question, both for Persivul and SirCakez.
If you were scum, whom would you have targetted at Night1 for the Kill and why?

I don't have time to read D1, but based on VCs: probably you, for being town read. Typically I'll kill people who are pushing me (most people currently think NKA is all wifom and suspect framing more than straght-forward play), but those were texcat and gurts, and both of those had pressure on D1 and so I would have kept them in my mislynch group.

[Persivul]

I have no idea, other then presumably Tex checked you night 1 from the crumb clear post she made Day 2.

Why no idea? When you're a cop, do you (or would you, if you've never been one) target people at random? Presumably not. You have various criteria you use to select a target, and you could have applied those criteria to this situation and drawn some conclusions.

[Persivul]

So, the reason why I asked the wgeurtz question was because it was actually a town tell for me. All wgeurtz asked was a policy lynch

after

he flipped town, not before. It was a way to discourage blacle from shooting him or encouraging him to think twice.

Both cakes and persivul gave this as an answer to why they considered lynching wgeurtz, which I thought was strange. If pers had given a different answer I might have been more convinced about cakes, but he didn't. He sheeped cakes answer and that worsened my read on him.

I didn't sheep cakez' answer, I had the same answer, and it's a reasonable one. BW was wild but he was still conftown.

[Persivul]

I'm here. NL is pointless. Now that you've had your vote on cakez for awhile, cakez would NK you, and Anen is in the same spot he's in now. Worse, as he doesn't have you to talk to.

[Persivul]

This situation absolutely requires that a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part...

[Persivul]

Nothing, it's just a movie quote.

[Persivul]

@anen: Here's an idea...let's lynch cakez and win this thing...

[Persivul]

Cakez has been on site today and made a few posts, but not a whole lot.

[Persivul]

Wow you sure are eager for a lynch, huh?

Ok caught up. Persivul's play now reeks of scum who's managed to reverse a predicament into an advantageous situation and is desperate for a win. Don't fall for his "lynch Cakez NOW and win" crap please.

I figured you'd spin those comments that way, and you didn't disappoint. Yes, I'm eager for a lynch. Why shouldn't I be? This has gone on long enough considering pigeon's ninja comment. It's time for some rope.

[Persivul]

1. They've had plenty of time.

2. More time isn't necessarily town. My job as town isn't to play by some stock town playbook. My job is to try to win the game. In mafia in general, and in mylo/lylo in particular, people tend to second-guess themselves as time goes by with little activity. I have to weigh the chance that pigeon and/or chilled will find my pushing scummy against the chance that chilled will second-guess himself as this drags on. In my estimation, pushing for a decision is currently the correct play. I know it may backfire, but that's the way it goes.

[Persivul]

Oi pers, come here with your best defence coz you are gonna need it. If you can't convince anen then I would have no choice other than to lynch you.

You made a nice summary of the main points above - and

I

don't need it, town needs it.

In reviewing my ISO, I don't know how anyone could read my D1 and think I'm scum. I was an asshole. There's no way I play scum like that. I even showed my two most recent games. I was salty in the town game, but pleasant in the scum game.

Today I've been pretty transparent in my thinking, while cakez is playing a very safe, close to the vest game.

The problem is that

pigeon already knows these things

. In

1284

he mentions my D1 play: "But I definitely felt the same about his gameplay on Day1." In

1188

he said regarding cakez, "Secondly, he broke down Persivul's posts but most of his answers lack real content." I could give more examples. So, how do I convince someone who is seeing my points and agreeing with them, but not making the right connections?

Unfortunately, I think the answer is in 1279: "Namely, if we lynch Persivul and SirCakez gets away with it, noone will blame us. But if we lynch SirCakez and he flips town, we won't be called good players for a long time..."

[Persivul]

Wrong.
I've never said that I'd have voted for SirCakez if I hadn't been ninja-ed.

That's what ninja-ing means - someone came and did what you were going to do before you did it.

[Persivul]

Persivul's been trying to manipulate me and his latest posts have shown it clearly. (Eg. the fact how hard he's been trying to make me end the game with lynching SirCakez.) His gameplay is much more "gamestate-sensitive", I mean he's trying to exploit everything and turn everything on his side.

And?

As I see it, you're interpreting the facts through this: "Namely, if we lynch Persivul and SirCakez gets away with it, noone will blame us. But if we lynch SirCakez and he flips town, we won't be called good players for a long time..."

So, yes, I need to try to manipulate you. Logical arguments don't overcome emotional impediments.

Plus, I can only work with what I have. You said the cakez vote ninja'd you and I'm working with that. If you didn't really mean it, then my arguments based on it aren't going to be accurate.