Mini 2156: Launch Mob [Game Over]


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Post Post #766 (isolation #0) » Sun Aug 23, 2020 12:16 pm

Post by Fidget »

Hiya!

I notice there's an even amount of players in the game.. why 10 rather than 9? Has that been figured out?

I assume this isn't Xylo from one scum already being down, unless the setup is 7v3 somehow (traitor that doesnt count for scum wincon?). My goal is to reread the entire game so i will get back to you all
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Post Post #771 (isolation #1) » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:53 pm

Post by Fidget »

kk finished my reread. I got lazy towards the end but it went alright

Spoiler: quick opinion on each slot
ready2rock -


Other than being confirmed from the vigilante claim, he was a counterwagon to Ydrasse that Ydrasse supported D1. I forgot about that towards the end of my notes and considered him a suspect again up until the claim. There aren't any obvious scum slots in this game to me..


Midwaybear -


I think his interactions with the flipped scum look particularly good on him. He pushed her very early and fairly seriously. Ydrasse, too, pushed back at him pretty hard.

He also makes a lot of comments that would surprise me if he's scum. Unsure if that's just him though


Kerset / BM -


BM was somewhat hesistant to let Ydrasse go, wanted to ensure IV's claim was all set in order first. He did vote Dunn at first as well.

Unsure what i make of the backup BM claim, need more thought on that

Kerset's reads are extremely interesting to me. Midway at the bottom, CLAP and Blair at the top? Are we readin the same game?


CLAP -


Has some decent posts but also felt less present than other players to me. Maybe i was missing some of his stuff.

I think I generally had a tendency to more agree with CLAP's opinions over BM's

I am curious as to why he townreads my slot so hard, when much of the game wanted to scumread her (a lot of slots that are dead now tbh but still i recall there being many). Kerset does this too

Spoiler: stream of consciousness notes
(5) I wonder if scum Ydrasse really RVS votes her partner midway.

Ready2rock and midway have the worst entrances to the thread (9) + (13). CLAP is better.

(31) kind of awkward scum PT joke by midway

(54) Ydrasse again fixates on midway

(65) Midway fixates on Ydrasse seriously their early posts focus on each other rather than other things quite a bit

Battle Mage seems shaken/more quiet than normal. Odd. He goes for the CLAP wagon. He mentions midway’s ISO looks like crap

Midway OMGUSes BM’s comment

BM has a pretty huge reaction to midway (94) + (104)

BM sort of reminds me of his town game, but he’s picking on midway which doesn’t impress me. I’ve seen scum BM tunnel and town BM tunnel. We shall see

(85) + (115) Lol Ydrasse is super focused on midway and midway being scum early. I think this would suggest midway is town, I dont think scum!Ydrasse kicks off the game with bussing her partner. I think it’s vastly more likely she went after midway because she isn’t terribly confident and midway tends to sound scummy so he was a decent target.

120 - Ydrasse seems to be coming up with reasons for midway being town now. A weird progression. She was like “Let’s find midways partner” -> “I dont really SR you midway” -> “Hm he seems different from when he was scum”.

Does she think midway is going to come under heat, so she’s making herself look better for it by calling he’s town early?

124 - midway assumes there’s 2 scum

Haha BM won’t use his emojis until he takes out some scum. Was he responsible for taking out Ydrasse? Yet to be seen

130 - BM calls out Ydrasse for something

(136) Classic BM tunnel on midway. I wonder, does town BM feel the need to go hard this game in order to make something up to himself? Scum BM might go mellow and be like “yah my reads bad”.

BM turns on a dime onto Nosferatu for idk reasons in 137

147 is a decent explanation for the Nosferatu vote by BM. Decent as in it looks kind of like he believes it

BM goes on to call Nosferatu classic lurker scum

Midway thinks BM doesnt genuinely believe in the push, it seems dumb

Tons of BM stuff everywhere i dont want to read. Can I townbin him without thinking about it? Maybe. I am not terribly familiar with what his scumgame looks like.

CLAP admits to skipping BM’s stuff but points out one post he liked (I also did the same to both)

Ready2rock scumreads BM and votes him for being inconsistent. While R2R may be correct I do not know if that makes BM scum. He also dislikes Nosferatus entrance which looks bad in hindsight. Doesnt explain why other than “too combative”

My slot didnt like r2r’s reentrance much, neither did IV

It seems generally consensus that BM is lean town. IV and CLAP agree

CLAP sheeps onto Nosferatu

Midway agrees that R2R’s BM vote was alright, the Nosferatu shade was scummy. Doesnt vote.

(197) midway hits Ydrasse with the trip question marks. Bro

198 - CLAP is borderline openwolfing with saying he’ll lurk n shit

199 - Mafia Goon dislikes ready to rock as well

201 - Midway wonders if Mafia Goon is a mafia traitor open wolfing. I actually like this thought, seems like it comes from a good place since there’s traitor speculation and mafia goon does make sense for this. Although he may be missing the account name joke

My slot seems to find IV’s sheep onto Rd2 important for associations

216 - Midway takes the first step against Ydrasse. This and his trip ??? post earlier gives him strong town equity

219 - Ydrasse sheeps onto the ready2rock wagon. Distancing or not?

220/221 - Readyrock walls here. Seems to have an elaborate explanation for the nosferatu read. Tbh im not reading deep enough but it looks okay

222 - Mafia Goon likes it and swaps onto that Ydrasse wagon

226 - My slot votes for ready2rock rather than Ydrasse. FoSes Mafia Goon. This is probably not reflecting well on me

235 - Ydrasse leaves the ready2rock wagon.

238 - Midway doubles down on Ydrasse in this post. I would be surprised if he’s scum.

239 - Midway is not feeling the r2r wagon. So he isn’t setting himself up for a swap down the line thats for sure

260 - IV switches to Ydrasse

261 - CLAP is lost

265 / 266 - BM reenters and promptly gets the fuck out LOL

268 - Ydrasse votes Dunnstral

-shes bounced between voting for midway, ready2rock, and Dunnstral so far]


271 - CLAP joins Blair on ready2rock

273 - BM is offended that Ydrasse suggests his push is dumb

VC 1.7

Ydrasse (3): midwaybear, innocentvillager, Nosferatu
ready2rock (2): Blair, CantLynchAPuppy
Nosferatu (1): Battle Mage
midwaybear (1): Dunnstral
Battle Mage (1): ready2rock
Blair (1): Mafia Goon
Dunnstral (1): Ydrasse

278 - BM posts his reads

Scumpool
CantLynchAPuppy (?)
Dunnstral (Town)
Ydrasse (Scum)
Nosferatu** (Town)

Townpool
Midwaybear (probably town)
Ready2rock (lean town ?)
Innocentvillager (Town)
Mafia Goon (Town)

Wildcard
Blair (Town)

294 - Ready2rock votes Blair for being inconsistent around Dunn

308 IV thinks that BM, Mafia, Blair, and midway are prob town. Not sure about r2r or CLAP. Votes Dunn

315 - CLAP continues to note BM is town. Thinks Dunn is scum.

My slot was pretty sure Dunn was scum. Mafia Goon is not havin it. Who will?

347 - midway says “We going Dunn today?”

349 - r2r is feeling better about a launch of Dunn today

352 - Ydrasse is feeling better about r2r. She uses the same wording as him in 349, actually.

360 - R2r votes Dunn and is hopeful it’s a scum slot, at least finds Dunn unhelpful

364 - IV votes Ydrasee, cites Dunn as easy miselim

369 - CLAP sheeps IV onto Ydrasse vote

373 - R2r has Ydrasse as slight town for now, asks for case on her

My slot finds Dunn to be caught scum…

Ydrasse switches to mafia goon

Mafia Goon adds his vote to Ydrasse with nice nice reasoning

386 - Midway is fine with Ydrasse, but also doesn’t get the Dunn townreads

!! YDRASSE CLAIMS 2-SHOT COP !!

408 - CLAP switches to Dunn, says he was going to switch anyway without even seeing the claim

410 - CLAP gets swayed off Dunn into midway because Dunn says he would have hammered

418 - BM simplifies it to choosing between claimed VT or claimed cop. He says he buys the cop claim in absence of a cc and votes Dunn.

423 - Midway says to stick with Dunn because he doesnt want to narrow the PR pool any more

!! IV COUNTER CLAIMS YDRASSE !!


431 - Midway says IV is lowkey scummy for not specifying the role? Lol. He votes Ydrasses anyway though. Feel like scum midway probably doesn’t say that

442 - BM, after waiting for clarification from IV that his role is strong, then votes Ydrasse

447 - BM says “This could be a quick win!” hmm

454 - Midway says “Ydrasse will be the first scum I caught and successfully wagoned. I hope.”

Two things: That’s a kind of weird level of confidence. HOWEVER. I would find it strange for scum midway to say this. So I’m unsure, leaning town on it.

457 - My slot retracts intent to hammer on Ydrasse SMH

I actually think this might be too much for my slot to be scum with Ydrasse. Like if I were scum, my partner is caught and WILL die in the next two days. Get some credit off it. Dont try to save her

477 - R2r is leaning towards Ydrasse

480 - CLAP agrees with Blair on retracting intent?! And then suggests Midway instead of Dunn

BM does research on the claim and determined normals with a gunsmith don’t have a cop

497 - R2r comes to his conclusion of voting Ydrasse

!! YDRASSE SCUMFLIP !!

Midway obviously comes off quite nice.

506 - CLAP doesn’t think it’s blair/dunn

Blair pushes Dunn, BM votes Nosferatu, Mafi votes redrock

534 - Redrock questions Blair. Blair I think is an obvious miselim for scum today, wonder who pushes her

575 - Redrock reads

Town Read
Midway
Mafi
BM
Puppy
Nosferatu
Dunn
Blair
Scum Read

The bottom 3 are town..

591 - Rdr goes onto Nosferatu which is sort of eh

Nosferatu is fuckin convinced BM is scum and I havent read any of it

598 - Puppy suggests a midway/clap/dunn townblock. Would probably win the game. Like that he includes himself

623 - CLAP’s explicit townread of Blair interests me. I’m not sure if it’s a scum maneuver to defend her or a town one to not just go for her when it’d probably not be super hard

Midway and CLAP vote for r2r

631 - Nosferatu points out a bunch of inconsistencies with BM, he’s probably right, although I dont necessarily make BM scum for it

Ready2rock has decent big reads posts but his bottom three is all town, bottom four is town if CLAP is town

!! KERSET = BM !!

661 - Kerset reads

CantLynchAPuppy
Blair
Mafia Goon
ready2rock
Nosferatu
midwaybear
Dunnstral

Why is midway so low?

Everyone is generally fine with voting Dunn but its slow AF. Kerset is a big proponent of the Dunn wagon

Mafia Goon goes for redrock instead

CLAP hammers Dunn

!! DUNN, MAFIA, NOSFERATU ARE OUT !!

OH lol redrock is the vig.

Kerset/bm claims backup BP which I didnt know was a thing

Town

Ready2rock
midwaybear
-
CLAP
Kerset
Not Town


I will be considering reversing CLAP and Kerset because i have not really thought about the claims too much yet.

So my first inclinations are.. hm.. either CLAP is scum and the kill on Nosferatu was more or less framing BM (since he's townreading Blair, Blair was never the miselim he's going for here). In fact, Blair probably was already going to be elimed on her own, so may as well make BM look worse as well

BM/Kerset is just scum and the kill is much more straightforward. Nosferatu was completely tunneled on them.

Ready2rock and Midway do not appear to be scum to me.

The strongest thing I'm feeling right now is either Kerset or CLAP are scum. They both share this high townread on my slot. Why? I thought midway was the towniest. I see CLAP has midway second town, but Kerset says midway is highest likelihood scum.
In post 719, Kerset wrote:I think that one of the mafia members is midway. He lacks of commitment to his own leads. Technically he picked Ydrasse to be his target but his whole agenda was only about pursuing dunn at the time and lynching him. Ydr is only mentioned in terms of receiving credit for his eventual flip.
What do you think of midway-Ydrasse's interactions?
In post 710, CantHateAPuppy wrote:this is where im thinking right now

scum > kerset > r2r > midway > blair
In post 717, CantHateAPuppy wrote:Awesome. Which shot was yours?

Kerset > Blair > midway

Avengers assemble!!!!??!! !!!
Why do/did you have Blair as your strongest town? Apologies if im missing it
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Post Post #772 (isolation #2) » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:11 pm

Post by Fidget »

In post 755, CantHateAPuppy wrote:I'm not sure if a town BP backup makes sense (scum dies so town gets extra power? What?). Which is why it could be a red herring or a scum lie. But it's not totally implausible either
Yup this makes no fuckin sense. Scum loses a player in an 8v2, and gets extra punished for it by a town PR inheriting a power?

Unless, maybe we're dealing with a traitor..? That would make it 7v3 and kind of shitty for town if we only got the 2 PRs. Let's say Kerset is town and there's a BP traitor

Town Gunsmith
Town One-shot Vigilante
Town Backup Bulletproof
Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie

Mafia One-shot Bulletproof Traitor
Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon

The gunsmith still kind of sucks. He has a false innocent result and a false guilty.

I can see two scenarios:

Kerset is a scum power role (doesnt have to be bulletproof) and this is his fakeclaim gambit in order to push a false traitor narrative. He could have thought of this over the night phase.

Kerset is a town backup bulletproof, and we're dealing with a traitor/goon combo? It still feels far-fetched to me. If redrock and midway are town, I can't even fit two scum in. Unless midwaybear's bus on Ydrasse was planned out in some way?
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Post Post #773 (isolation #3) » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:11 pm

Post by Fidget »

I'm takin a nap. There will be plenty of time to seek out the truth tomorrow.
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Post Post #785 (isolation #4) » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:29 am

Post by Fidget »

In post 774, Kerset wrote:You sound like you would suspect people for having different opinion then you.
Hehe, sometimes

Part of the way I like to try and catch scum is noticing opinions that seem odd. Like scum is forced into situations where they have to fabricate scumreads, or at least overlook things people are doing that are towny.

I also may just be incorrect about how well the first elimination spews midway as town, or maybe we do just disagree, but that's what im here to figure out!
In post 784, midwaybear wrote:well since puppy and kerset have both popped in and fidget has not been quickhammered: there's either no traitor or she is just scum.
@Kerset They actually were serious. I was suspicious of Ydrasse initially because she said she scumread me and MG, but then said it was a joke. I did not think that was townie, so that's why I said "it didn't sound like a joke".
Well you're in the scumteam in the event we're dealing with a goon/traitor combo right now. And Kerset wouldn't be.
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Post Post #786 (isolation #5) » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:36 am

Post by Fidget »

If you assume the vigilante misses his shot, and there's a traitor/goon combo left, this is the setup we play with the 9 left:

Town Gunsmith (Has 1 false innocent, 1 false guilty)
Town 1-shot Vigilante
Town Backup Bulletproof
Townie
Townie
Townie

Mafia Bulletproof Traitor
Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon

Town only gets 1 miselim and their lone PR has an extremely high chance of just getting wrong results lol

For my sanity, let's assume there's 2 mafia. Assume vig will miss his shot again:

Town Gunsmith (Has 1 false innocent, 1 false guilty)
Town 1-shot Vigilante
Town Backup Bulletproof
Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie

Mafia Bulletproof
Mafia Goon

Town gets 2 miselims, a gunsmith, and the vig attempt. Much better this way.

The backup bulletproof is so odd to me though if scum really does have a bulletproof. Why is scum slapped in the face like that lol. Red herring I could see
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Post Post #787 (isolation #6) » Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:07 am

Post by Fidget »

In post 776, Kerset wrote:Okay lets look at their entire exchange
Spoiler: MidwayxYdrasse
In post 124, midwaybear wrote:
In post 115, Ydrasse wrote:@midway: i guess it wasn't clear and that's on me but i don't actually sr you or mafia goon because i haven't taken this seriously yet.
Ok, it just didn't really sound like you were joking to me.

@IV I was thinking there would be 2 scum because 3 seems like a bit too much for a 10p game. I'm not sure though, and it's interesting that there are 10 players instead of 9.
In post 65, midwaybear wrote:
In post 55, Ydrasse wrote:i am a bit suspicious of you being a mafia goon.
Is this legit?

The puppy is cool :cool:
In post 144, midwaybear wrote:@Ydrasse: don't worry. It might look like a lot, but I'm still posting those one liners :)
I'll reply to BM later, but @BM what made you change your vote? Was it something I did or something Nosferatu did?
In post 197, midwaybear wrote:
In post 180, Ydrasse wrote:my question is: are dumb pushes more prone to come from town or scum though.
They come from both alignments.
In post 182, Ydrasse wrote:i am willing to accept the L
???

My take on what Nosferatu means about Blair/Dunn is that Blair's push on Dunn didn't make sense and thus might have been too informed. However, I think Blair raised a fair point. Also, do you still scumread me blair?
In post 216, midwaybear wrote: I hope I can post more tomorrow. I think I will VOTE: Ydrasse. I see merit in the Nosferatu wagon, but I think this is fine too.
In post 238, midwaybear wrote:
In post 219, Ydrasse wrote:i sheep this

VOTE: ready2rock

i don't think that ready2rock's statement about nosferatu is really that confident though, tbf. "very combatitive" is strong wording ig but given that it's pinned on as an afterthought i'd argue that there isn't a lot of heart in it.
yeah this is sorta a hedge. I feel better about my vote.
In post 289, midwaybear wrote:
In post 288, Ydrasse wrote: also i've been meaning to ask this for like five games now but what in the world does partner equity actually mean.
It means that two people have an above random chance of being wolves together maybe because of a specific interaction(or lack thereof).
I'm lazy so I am going to call Battle Mage's wall town and desperately pray that he isn't scum taking advantage of heavy apathy. Dunnstral legit always plays in a pretty scummy way, but I guess that's no reason not to vote him. I need to hear from him more.
In post 431, midwaybear wrote:
In post 426, innocentvillager wrote:i hope im doing the right thing

i am an investigative role
This is low key scummy because you aren’t specifying what role. I still will vote ydrasse though
VOTE: Ydrasse
In post 454, midwaybear wrote:Ydrasse will be the first scum I caught and successfully wagoned. I hope at least.
In post 493, midwaybear wrote:bruh I started the ydrasse wagon
gimme my towncred :D
In post 504, midwaybear wrote:
In post 216, midwaybear wrote:VOTE: Ydrasse
Gimme my towncred now.
In post 508, midwaybear wrote:i scumread her first, and I don't bus.
I'm not scum here

65, 124 and 144 are not serious at all. 197 and 289 are NAI conversations and in 216 mid decided to cast empty vote. 238 is shading, which could count at pushing his target. 454, 493, 504 and 508 he decided to ask for towncred...

Did i miss any posts or maybe we are talking about different game? First he pushed BM and at later phase, he spend slightly more time on pushing dunn and off tracking over ydra. He was more interested in bragging about ydra to make people memorize his vote placement rather then ensuring his elimination.
Okay, I understand better now. I do not believe midwaybear would hard bus his partner as he would have here, though. I feel there were other options for him to vote but he decided to go after Ydrasse. It's a a conscious decision to bus, and he was quite serious about it from the moment he voted her as you can see in the following posts:
In post 238, midwaybear wrote:
In post 219, Ydrasse wrote:i sheep this

VOTE: ready2rock

i don't think that ready2rock's statement about nosferatu is really that confident though, tbf. "very combatitive" is strong wording ig but given that it's pinned on as an afterthought i'd argue that there isn't a lot of heart in it.
yeah this is sorta a hedge. I feel better about my vote.
In post 267, midwaybear wrote:We should probably hang Ydrasse if nothing new comes up.
So if he's scum it was definitely intentional. Maybe they were planning for the cop claim to save her?
In post 431, midwaybear wrote:
In post 426, innocentvillager wrote:i hope im doing the right thing

i am an investigative role
This is low key scummy because you aren’t specifying what role. I still will vote ydrasse though
VOTE: Ydrasse
Ehhhhhh if midway were trying to claim his credit here, why the hell would he shade IV and still vote Ydrasse? Surely he'd pick one or the other?

BM chose to wait until IV gave more info. Midway was like "Okay Imma vote Ydrasse but you're kinda scummy too", which is just such an odd thing to say honestly even as either alignment but also as scum trying to get credit. speaking of credit:

Spoiler: midway wants his credit
In post 454, midwaybear wrote:Ydrasse will be the first scum I caught and successfully wagoned. I hope at least.
In post 482, midwaybear wrote:
In post 479, CantHateAPuppy wrote:Reads like scum positioning to join the wagon (whether ydrasse is scum or not)
I literally started her wagon and only unvoted/revoted to vote Dunn and revote her...
In post 493, midwaybear wrote:bruh I started the ydrasse wagon
gimme my towncred :D
In post 504, midwaybear wrote:
In post 216, midwaybear wrote:VOTE: Ydrasse
Gimme my towncred now.
In post 508, midwaybear wrote:i scumread her first, and I don't bus.
I'm not scum here
I think this is the scum first wagon midway has been a major part of. A big moment for him, I'm sure. I checked to see how he treats his partner in his scum game.

Doesn't speak a word to his partner til his 22nd post, and it's just a comment. Gives a hard town read on his partner with no explanation in 276. Throws shade on partner in 305. Admits to not reading the case on his partner in 416.

Idk it's certainly a huge difference if he's scum with Ydrasse here.
In post 719, Kerset wrote:I think that one of the mafia members is midway. He lacks of commitment to his own leads. Technically he picked Ydrasse to be his target but his whole agenda was only about pursuing dunn at the time and lynching him. Ydr is only mentioned in terms of receiving credit for his eventual flip.
I dont think this is an accurate depiction of his day one. He has a certain quality to his reads where he jumps around the place that often gets him perceived as scum, yeah. Calling his whole agenda pursuing Dunn is a huge stretch, isn't that what Blair did? He mentions Ydrasse as being who he wants to get rid of quite a bit, not just in his many credit-grabbing posts.

Midway didn't explain much of why he wanted to get rid of Ydrasse, but I expect him to usually not have a ton of justification behind his reads. All I know is he very clearly wanted her dead, or at least wanted to put her on the stand over Dunn/the other options. Up until the claim, and even then he went back to her immediately after the CC. BM did not. Why do that?
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Post Post #788 (isolation #7) » Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:15 am

Post by Fidget »

Feel like BM would have crumbed his role at some point, but i can't find it. Closest I can get is maybe this:
In post 272, Battle Mage wrote:I think this comes from town. I don't think newbie scum chooses to gun for me when there's no momentum and it's likely that I get all OMGUSy and tunnel-visiony which just brings them into the limelight.
But that's not an unusual phrase to use tbh
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Post Post #791 (isolation #8) » Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:59 pm

Post by Fidget »

In post 761, ready2rock wrote:Thinking about the idea that Kerset is lying, what would scum's motivation would be to make a claim that added urgency to the town (by saying that we're in lylo) and was also unverifiable, making people skeptical of you and your claim?

Seems like it'd be overplaying for no reason
Mm I'm not sure. Falsely claiming that we're in Xylo doesn't make a ton of sense for scum..

Scum Kerset can claim there's 2 scum left all he wants but it'd come crashing down when we miselim and go to the next day. Hm..
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Post Post #792 (isolation #9) » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:06 pm

Post by Fidget »

OH r2r shot Nosferatu and scum shot Mafia Goon. Dunno why i got that twisted.
In post 780, Kerset wrote:We finally got a player, who actually makes a reads on players based on backed up data. Does nightkill analysis, which for some reason everyone overlooked. Meantime you for entire week all you are interested in is roleclaim roleclaim roleclaim roleclaim lets talk about roleclaim and how about we doubt roleclaim and lets ask about roleclaim
Was this referring to me? My tiny bit of NKA was in a fantasy world cause I was speculating on why Nosferatu got killed by scum

Mafia Goon was a solid kill, i recall him being decently townread and having good reads towards on Ydrasse and r2r
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Post Post #793 (isolation #10) » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:12 pm

Post by Fidget »

Currently thinking I was mistaken on Kerset and scum!Puppy saw his one opportunity to win through miseliming Kerset -> NKing r2r -> winning Xylo by convincing midway to vote me

That, or Puppy is genuinely town who thinks the way i was thinking earlier. But I hadn't thought about the BP claim much at the time, Puppy has had quite some time to do so I take it

Does anyone here townread Puppy? Nothing about his contributions on D1 to the Ydrasse v. Dunn wagons, nor his D2 sticks out to me as super town

Also, I do not believe there's a traitor. The gunsmith would be total garbage and then town's only PR is a 1-shot vig and (presumably) a fake backup BP
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Post Post #794 (isolation #11) » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:16 pm

Post by Fidget »

If this setup is 7v3, then if town miselims D1 and vig misfires N1, the game is already sudden death at 4v3 where town CANNOT make a mistake for 3 elims in a row. And the gunsmith has a fake guilty and a fake inno. I doubt that's fair (although idk setup design)

The only reason we're entertaining the thought of a traitor is probably because we eliminated a mafia member D1 so it seems more plausible
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Post Post #795 (isolation #12) » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:24 pm

Post by Fidget »

Town Gunsmith
Town 1-shot Vigilante
Town Backup Bulletproof
Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie

Mafia Power Role
Mafia Goon

You could consider the backup bulletproof to be negative utility as a red herring, I guess?

I do not think it makes sense for a townie to inherit bonus power in the event a scum player dies, at least in this setup where town are up an extra player and get a freebie vig shot
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Post Post #797 (isolation #13) » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:35 pm

Post by Fidget »

I would like to try and call scum correctly.

At the moment I am thinking it must be Puppy if Kerset's claim is to be taken as a clear, as I do not believe you bussed Ydrasse, and r2r is off the table

I notice Puppys contributions today have been mostly role/mechanical speculation, as well as suspecting Kerset.

I do believe if he's scum, then r2r and kerset were probably the two he was intending on pushing for the next two days. Unfortunately he was cut off by role claims galore, and the two he townread the strongest (you and I) are actually the VTs. Maybe that disrupted him somehow

one thing I do kind of like about Puppy is his reads aren't terribly consistent

he went from between you and I
In post 735, CantHateAPuppy wrote:kerset why were you thinking it's midway

fmpov it's not r2r and u'd be more likely as traitor so im thinking between blair and midway atm
to Kerset ?
In post 746, CantHateAPuppy wrote:
In post 743, Kerset wrote:i don't know your current level of trust in me, i though it was mediocre
This looks really really weak
In post 782, CantHateAPuppy wrote:it's not healthy to bottle ur emotions up like that

VOTE: kerset
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Post Post #798 (isolation #14) » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:37 pm

Post by Fidget »

Kerset, do you think Puppy is on the scumteam in the scenario there's two scum left?
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Post Post #812 (isolation #15) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:58 am

Post by Fidget »

In post 803, Kerset wrote:
In post 787, Fidget wrote:
In post 431, midwaybear wrote:
In post 426, innocentvillager wrote:i hope im doing the right thing

i am an investigative role
This is low key scummy because you aren’t specifying what role. I still will vote ydrasse though
VOTE: Ydrasse
Ehhhhhh if midway were trying to claim his credit here, why the hell would he shade IV and still vote Ydrasse? Surely he'd pick one or the other?

BM chose to wait until IV gave more info. Midway was like "Okay Imma vote Ydrasse but you're kinda scummy too", which is just such an odd thing to say honestly even as either alignment but also as scum trying to get credit.
The answer is pretty simple,
In post 426, innocentvillager wrote:i hope im doing the right thing

i am an investigative role
Mid voted ydra right after he got counterclaimed. With CC, it was quite obvious that ydra will be executed regardless, so mid was securing his place on the wagon and wanted to be convincing.
That doesn't explain why scum midway would include the comment about not trusting IV. You'd want the bus to be as strong as possible at that point, yes? Why pretend to doubt the investigative and then still go along with it?

BM doubted IV at first, waited and waited for more info, and then went on Ydrasse after IV elaborated on his role. That makes more sense if you're gonna be hesitant about it.
In post 807, Kerset wrote:It kind of bothers me how Fidget is trying to get me in conflict with puppy. In she calls out the exact thing, she noticed that i am bothered about recently.
Wdym? The "is Puppy on the scumteam" comment?

I think either you or Puppy is scum. It only makes sense I'm going to focus on you two. I wanted to hear more about your traitor theory and who it makes scum
In post 810, CantHateAPuppy wrote:btw the reason im hung up on setup spec is if there's no scumteam the associations are completely different than if there is a traitor

i would like to hear fidget give this more than a once-over. she has reads pretty baked in about how midway looks for pushing ydrasse and how me/kerset look on the ydrasse wagon. but if there's a traitor afoot, well, that sort of BTFO's any standard scum associations.
I think I am pretty solid on believing there is not a traitor. I talked about it for a while on the previous page. Check .

Besides. If there is a traitor, they did know scum's identities. It doesn't change the associations the currently living players have to Ydrasse, it only matters for Ydrasses' associations with that traitor.

Why is this topic so important to you? I feel like it changes nothing for me.
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Post Post #813 (isolation #16) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:59 am

Post by Fidget »

In post 801, CantHateAPuppy wrote:Kerset is not town because she spent as much time as anyone doing role spec with me

In a game plagued by inactive lurk prod slots

And then after days where I felt like the only one talking, suddenly the fact that I did setup spec is BAD, or something. But kerset only reveals this opinion after there's a sub-in who might buy that opinion
oo that's my theory alright. I made it clear i am willing to go after Kerset or Puppy, and now you're both attacking each other.

After persuading me into choosing wrong, the scum then plays into midway's prior suspicion of Blair on the next day, miselims me in Xylo, GG.

But which one of you two is the scum? I will have more time to devote to this question later tonight.
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Post Post #826 (isolation #17) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:54 pm

Post by Fidget »

Midway how can I be your favorite elimination if you townread me? Do you townread everyone else in the playerlist more ?

It is not me so you need to start thinking about who your second pick is
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Post Post #829 (isolation #18) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:02 pm

Post by Fidget »

I'm going to play assuming my midway townread is correct since everyone but Kerset appears to be in agreement. Game is very likely already lost if he's scum

I am scared to vote Puppy because if I'm wrong it's game-losing. The elimination as it appears currently is going to be me + {Puppy/Kerset}, correct?

I need to psyche myself up for one last go at trying to solve this
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Post Post #831 (isolation #19) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:07 pm

Post by Fidget »

In post 829, Fidget wrote:The elimination as it appears currently is going to be me + {Puppy/Kerset}, correct?
Can't get rid of both of them so long as I'm dying
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Post Post #832 (isolation #20) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:08 pm

Post by Fidget »

I'm not going to complain about it, my slot seemed pretty unfavorable while I was rereading. I get why and that's largely why I was confused both Kerset and Puppy had me at the top of their reads at various points
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Post Post #837 (isolation #21) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:12 pm

Post by Fidget »

I see three ways this could go down (obv assuming midway is town), A.) we eliminate Puppy or Kerset, they're scum, yay

B.) we eliminate Puppy or Kerset, we go to Xylo and I would then know which one of them is scum and somehow I've got to prove it to try and save the game

or C.) We eliminate me first and you can use my input to potentially aide you in Xylo

I am not very excited at the thought of B happening
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Post Post #839 (isolation #22) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:14 pm

Post by Fidget »

Whoever is scum in Puppy/Kerset/Fidget has to get rid of the other two in back to back elims to win. Or at least, that's what I was assuming

It's a bit counter-intuitive for Puppy to advocate for my slot being town although I was operating under the assumption he was going to eliminate Kerset then flip on me the next day

And Kerset actually wants to put midway on the chopping block rather than me

So whoever is scum here is playing a bit more complicated game than just sticking to scumreading the other two
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Post Post #842 (isolation #23) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:20 pm

Post by Fidget »

Sigh. I like Puppy defending me from midway and also im falling for the (somewhat) AtE on the last page
In post 821, CantHateAPuppy wrote:you can scumread me if you want, i'm tired of this game and not sure how much im going to fight it

spent the whole game posting against a lurkbase, talking to blank walls, then having to compromise because nobody's around to work things out. think i played a bad day 1 but that was over a month ago now. not going to hash it all out again at the finish. w/e

pedit: leaving this post as-is lol
I could just end my analysis there and vote Kerset. I did have them as my favorite pick for scum after my reread although I'm forgetting exactly what it is I saw during the reread

Ah yes then that'd be Battle Mage. I didn't *really* think Battle Mage was scum either while rereading. But his positioning on the Ydrasse wagon was very believable for a scum partner. He didn't go on Ydrasse til late and he didn't trust IV at first from what I recall
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Post Post #843 (isolation #24) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:22 pm

Post by Fidget »

Does scum Kerset need midway on the elimination table? What's the point of that scumread? I disagree with it highly and I don't find it very strong reasoning, but does that make them scum?

And whats the idea behind the Backup Bulletproof claim? Why would Kerset want to trick us into thinking it's Xylo with all the traitor spec?!

I would vote Kerset in a heartbeat if I could work out the answers to these
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Post Post #844 (isolation #25) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:25 pm

Post by Fidget »

If we cut the game down to midway/Puppy/Fidget I wouldn't be too upset losing to either of you. From what I can tell and how Ive read you two, you would have played a quite good scum game

Especially the super early bus from midway. Very unexpected
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Post Post #846 (isolation #26) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:34 pm

Post by Fidget »

Kerset I feel I would be very comfortable scumreading if it weren't for two things: A.) the wack claim and B.) Battle Mage wasn't really that scummy

Puppy has a very easy path to winning by scumreading Blair or just caving in like midway does and being fine eliminating me. Don't see why he defends me so hard when he'll HAVE to do a 180 tomorrow.

Where are we going wrong?!
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Post Post #848 (isolation #27) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:36 pm

Post by Fidget »

Fidget wrote:Kerset I feel I would be very comfortable scumreading if it weren't for two things: A.) the wack claim and B.) Battle Mage wasn't really that scummy

Puppy has a very easy path to winning by scumreading Blair or just caving in like midway does and being fine eliminating me. Don't see why he defends me so hard when he'll HAVE to do a 180 tomorrow.

Where are we going wrong?!
Correction: where am I going wrong?

I still can't justify choosing anyone other than Kerset
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Post Post #852 (isolation #28) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:39 pm

Post by Fidget »

ready2rock wrote:
Fidget wrote:Does scum Kerset need midway on the elimination table? What's the point of that scumread? I disagree with it highly and I don't find it very strong reasoning, but does that make them scum?

And whats the idea behind the Backup Bulletproof claim? Why would Kerset want to trick us into thinking it's Xylo with all the traitor spec?!

I would vote Kerset in a heartbeat if I could work out the answers to these
These are things keeping me from reading this slot as scum as well
Ready2rock reveal that unto me which is hidden!

Oh, you don't know either. Yeah I think it was you actually who first mentioned it making no sense for Kerset to want us to believe we're in Xylo prematurely. A real puzzler that one
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Post Post #853 (isolation #29) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:42 pm

Post by Fidget »

I legitimately just rechecked my role PM to make sure it wasn't me that's how lost I am
In post 851, CantHateAPuppy wrote:i agree about the claim. is a scum backup bulletproof possible? that wouldn't make any sense right? the mod wouldnt want to fake out the scumteam with a red herring like that. (it's really really not likely that a scum backup bulletproof was used to warn scum about the vig, right?) so either kerset made up a really good lie or she's town after all
No you're right I think Kerset is either a strong scum PR (I mean.. it could be full bulletproof I guess) or is telling the truth

Maybe the best power scum gets in this setup is the freedom to have a good claim?
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Post Post #854 (isolation #30) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:43 pm

Post by Fidget »

I didn't mean to send that yet

What i mean is, they somehow were aware there was an extra spot in the PRs. Like, extra room to fit in a claim. IDFK
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Post Post #855 (isolation #31) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:45 pm

Post by Fidget »

I suppose scum!Puppy doesn't need to scumread me to win, he can win in spite of having to 180 on me via midway already wanting to get rid of my slot

But I don't know if I could pick Puppy over Kerset with a clear conscience. I don't find him scummier if I ignore the claim, I think Kerset is
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Post Post #859 (isolation #32) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:51 pm

Post by Fidget »

I will stop eating sweets for a month if there's a traitor. A month! There's no way there is and I refuse to accept it. Town only gets 1 miselimination in that setup
In post 858, ready2rock wrote:
In post 853, Fidget wrote:I legitimately just rechecked my role PM to make sure it wasn't me that's how lost I am
Well? Was it you?
No. I almost wish it was cause I'd at least not be confused anymore
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Post Post #861 (isolation #33) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:54 pm

Post by Fidget »

Kerset said that bulletproof is unusual for scum to have, except for scum traitors. If Kerset is town speaking the truth abt their claim, that implies he is backing up a bulletproof scumteam player (or it's a red herring)

I think it makes no sense to have a town player get stronger upon 1 of 2 scum dying in a 10 player setup, but that might just be me cause idk balance
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Post Post #863 (isolation #34) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:00 pm

Post by Fidget »

Also if Kerset is backing up a bulletproof scum player, then upon the vigilante shooting the bulletproof scum (the only case in which that power can be sort of helpful), Kerset's roleclaim is probably just going to be an extra headache for that scum player to deal with. Why would there be a town bulletproof with a town backup bulletproof?

I think overall making a town player that directly backs up a scum players role, and the scum player cannot deny it (in the event they get shot), is just nerfing scum further

So not only is there a gunsmith/1-shot vig, but scum have their one sorta power (bulletproof) get nerfed by a town backup who will call them out

I think the most balanced sounding setups are either Kerset is a townie red herring designed to confuse us (+ scum power) or Kerset is just scum lying here and there are no more town PRs, Kerset is a scum PR

And above all I don't think there's a traitor cause if scum figures out their identity the game is practically over, town can only make 1 mistake
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Post Post #865 (isolation #35) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:03 pm

Post by Fidget »

In post 862, ready2rock wrote:Are there any other common bulletproof roles aside from traitor and scum?

For the record I think a red herring is definitely a possibility
Well if there is, in fact, a full bulletproof they'd have to be scum at this point since nobody is claiming it

The only 1-shot BP I'm familiar with is back when the newbie setup had one. It was town aligned.
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Post Post #868 (isolation #36) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:06 pm

Post by Fidget »

Kerset wrote:[quote="In [url=https:<em class="Highlight" style="padding: 1px; box-shadow: rgb(229, 229, 229) 1px 1px; border-radius: 3px; -webkit-print-color-adjust: exact; background-color: rgb(255, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 205); font-style: inherit;">//</em>forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=12076640#p12076640]post 837[/url], Fidget"]I see three ways this could go down (obv assuming midway is town), A.) we eliminate Puppy or Kerset, they're scum, yay

B.) we eliminate Puppy or Kerset, we go to Xylo and I would then know which one of them is scum and somehow I've got to prove it to try and save the game

or C.) We eliminate me first and you can use my input to potentially aide you in Xylo

I am not very excited at the thought of B happening
Actually, why do you post it? I don't see how your pov helps us, it is just lamist thing to do.[/quote]That's my explanation for why I'm hesitant to vote

if I'm not the elimination today I'm gonna have to deal with the possibility of B happening so I have to either get it right confidently or let it be me first
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Post Post #871 (isolation #37) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:12 pm

Post by Fidget »

Eh I think your first reason is a pretty good one for them to out. I see what you mean though, normally they'd want to stay hidden
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Post Post #873 (isolation #38) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:19 pm

Post by Fidget »

Sort of, it was cause R2r was obviously going to die next. Although Kerset did think we were in Xylo yeah
In post 718, Kerset wrote:
In post 709, CantHateAPuppy wrote:it's definitely just one scum. setup doesn't make sense otherwise. it's probably gunsmith/1-shot vig vs. two scum, maybe with some other minor twist since this is umlaut
(x) Doubt

Vig will be tonights target, so i can reveal that i am backup bulletproof. Bulletproof is usually given to traitors to protect them from scum kills, so from design standpoint there is like 90% chance for one scum + traitor remaining.
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Post Post #877 (isolation #39) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:37 pm

Post by Fidget »

So, how fast do you guys wanna play this. Cause I am all for going to bed and trying again the next day. But i'm a replacement and haven't had as much time to dwell on stuff, so if you guys think you already know what you're gonna do, then no reason to wait for me

My current vote is just going to be agreement with r2r's decision. If the deadline were ending in 5 minutes I'd vote Kerset. I think if I said screw everything and just read the last 4 or 5ish pages, I'd say my reads would be scum>Kerset>Puppy>Midway

I think Puppy can still potentially be scum because I am decently falling for AtE there, and I dont think he had much in the way of clearing interactions with Ydrasse. Maybe that's why Kerset feels wrong and it's actually just Puppy.

BM had better interactions with Ydrasse although not perfect, he hesitated quite a bit on her wagon and was elsewhere most of the day. BM I found somewhat towny, although Kerset I just am not finding towny today other than the whole claim business and all that came with it.

And if midway's scum that just sucks don't it
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Post Post #880 (isolation #40) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:57 pm

Post by Fidget »

Fair enough but that's his towngame

Actually from that post alone I kinda don't think it's Kerset. That reaction felt way too real
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Post Post #881 (isolation #41) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:58 pm

Post by Fidget »

Bah, screw this game for now

I'm not townreading Midway off his body of work, it's more that I find his interactions with Ydrasse to be somewhat unbelievable if he's scum
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Post Post #886 (isolation #42) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:19 pm

Post by Fidget »

The only thing I've observed midway do since joining is "Yeah ur town Fidget but ummm I'm gonna have to kill ya"

I'm sure there was some stuff I liked about midway besides the Ydrasse interaction but I've all but forgotten them since I put him into the town corner and stopped really focusing on him at all
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Post Post #888 (isolation #43) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:21 pm

Post by Fidget »

Interestingly enough I think that's largely why Kerset dislikes midway

Maybe one of us will have our third eye open after waking up tomorrow and the game'll be instantly solved
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Post Post #889 (isolation #44) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:57 pm

Post by Fidget »

i just reread like the first twenty pages in bed cause this game stresses me out

Midway didnt push the Ydrasse wagon. im so dumb. the only time he pushed Ydrasse was when she was at 1 vote (his).

during crunch time where ydrasse and dunn both had a lot of steam end of day, he lobbed a ton of shade comments at Dunn despite voting for Ydrasse. and then switched to dunn. he never even says a word about ydrasse from what im seeing

IV, Nosferatu, Mafia Goon, and Puppy(to an extent) were all much more responsible for getting Ydrasse killed. while they were doing that, midway was questioning ppl townreading dunn and saying Dunns L-1 reaction wasnt hard to fake

it hardly makes sense for someone who thinks their option (the one they are voting FOR) is the best elim to then turn around and say "Yeah guys Dunn isnt swaying me you should finish him off". its odd

It looks like an early bus but it actually really wasnt, I think i interpreted it poorly on the first read. So either a.) im tired out of my mind and this reread is faulty so you should disregard this

or b.) My midway read is a total lie and I need to start weighing him against puppy

Also Kerset is way more likely town in that case

if midway is scum that perfectly explains why Puppy and Kerset feel towny and he doesnt. Kerset feels town from their predecessor, the claim, and that last frustrated comment abt midway. puppy idk also feels like town I'll go into it trrmow hopefully
In post 431, midwaybear wrote:
In post 426, innocentvillager wrote:i hope im doing the right thing

i am an investigative role
This is low key scummy because you aren’t specifying what role. I still will vote ydrasse though
VOTE: Ydrasse
this is still such a weird post to me. I do not get it. if he thinks IV is scummy, why is he voting Ydrasse?

i still cant think of an explanation for it honestly for any alignment

I am seriously considering the possibility that midway never intended for people to join him on Ydrasse and that credit grabbing at the end was him trying to salvage something from her death. Previously i had thought he was much more directly responsible for getting her killed but he really only pushed her when she wasnt under elimination pressure. but he makes it out like he did afterwards

Still though he might be town I guess because it was still a somewhat bold move to distance his partner early, just significantly less bold than i was thinking

anyway this has been me rambling at 5 am let me know if im more enlightened than before or if I just took a huge step backwards. I may completely change my mind tomorrow but i feel compelled to leave this here so i dont forget what I've been thinking abt thru the reread
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Post Post #896 (isolation #45) » Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:10 am

Post by Fidget »

In post 891, Kerset wrote:
In post 889, Fidget wrote:this game stresses me out
Why? You said that we got one mislynch left and you don't receive major suspicion. As replacement you didn't invest that much in to this game, so you don't have much to lose. The only disaster that could happen for you would be elimination of bulletproof traitor.
What do you mean i didnt invest much into the game?

I'm somewhat stressed because theres a very large chance im eliminated today or tomorrow and I am not sure who i want to advocate to be the other elimination

You all have one miselim but I dont
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Post Post #898 (isolation #46) » Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:14 am

Post by Fidget »

In post 890, midwaybear wrote:
In post 889, Fidget wrote:this is still such a weird post to me. I do not get it. if he thinks IV is scummy, why is he voting Ydrasse?
Probably because I wanted Ydrasse to flip scum more than IV. I actually thought Ydrasse was scummy(somewhat) and not really for IV beforehand.
I guess I didn't really push Ydrasse that much. That is true. She wasn't even that scummy compared to Dunn, so forgive me for that.
Why did you feel the need to stress how much towncred you should get for her death?
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Post Post #900 (isolation #47) » Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:16 am

Post by Fidget »

Hm, okay ready2rock.

I will let you know where my guess for scum is this afternoon. Presently I think I've talked myself out of BM/Kerset being scum and am mow considering between puppy and midway

Midway I think i gave way too much credit for the elimination and now I can believe Kersets mindset way better. Does it make midway scum automatically, well no.
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Post Post #901 (isolation #48) » Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:20 am

Post by Fidget »

For the record I 100% leave midway in the townbin and do not reevaluate him ever as scum. I also wouldnt talk nearly as much and although I would effort decently, itd be in a much smaller amount of posts

That's okay though I feel sort of confident my pool of 2 is correct, meaning I have a 50/50 off the bat
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Post Post #905 (isolation #49) » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:08 am

Post by Fidget »

Ydrasse D1 -

Ydrasse's interactions with midway are really sloppy at the top of her ISO. She has a whole array from "Let's find midway's scumpartner" to "I don't actually scumread you midway." Feels like she'd think more about her interactions with her partner than that.

139 - Ydrasse misses something BM says and he calls her out on it, somewhat like it for them not being teamed

143 - Ydrasee kinda doesnt have a read on midway from the early wagon made on him

182 - This is Puppy/Ydrasses major distance. It looks somewhat good for Puppy but mm

---------

Puppy D1 -

173 - Puppy points out Ydrasse looks like scum doing busywork, but says it's minor stuff we can work on

271 - Puppy does pick the r2r wagon over Ydrasse's

314 - Puppy declares he is willing to hammer a Dunn wagon

Puppy has quite a few posts declaring BM town btw, it's one of his main reads

369 - This is Puppy sheeping IV onto the Ydrasse wagon, when IV declared Dunn town. Idk it looks alright

408 - puppy votes Dunn instead. he declares he was going to switch back to the Dunn even before the claim

410 - Random compromise wagon on midway, thinks midway is scum positioning on the Ydrasse wagon. He points out that weird post I mentioned early midway made

480 - Puppy agrees with Blair not trusting the IV CC, but wants midway > Dunn

---------

midway D1 -

Starts off with a BM push. Their battle is legendary but not very important so i didnt read it

92 - Tells Ydrasse she needs to explain herself with regards to her scumreads

124 - Accepts her response, she basically says she was joking

197 - he gives Ydrasse a "???" in this post. Something abt it

216 - Feels better about BM. Votes Ydrasse, but sees merit in Nosferatu wagon

238 - Says he feels better about his Ydrasse vote, calls her hedgey

267 - Says we should hang Ydrasse

While midway didn't really end up being the cause for Ydrasse's death, it does really seem that he would have been okay with killing her right then and there. I am willing to see the Dunn vote as a mistake, probably. Dunn I imagine was a scummy enough guy. My slot sure thought so

However, I get Kerset's point a lot better now. Midway's credit grabbing wasn't exactly warranted however it's entirely possible he was just excited.

371 / 386 - Midway shades Dunn from his place on the Ydrasse wagon.

423 - Switches to Dunn

431 - Switches back to Ydrasse after the IV claim. He did it as soon as the claim came out, although he found IV scummy too
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Post Post #906 (isolation #50) » Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:13 am

Post by Fidget »

VOTE: Puppy

Au revoir!
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Post Post #914 (isolation #51) » Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:45 pm

Post by Fidget »

In post 912, ready2rock wrote:So fidget, would you say your list is scum>puppy>kerset>midway? Or am I perceiving your thoughts wrong? (hopefully you can forgive me, as they're all over the place lol)
Mm yes sorry

I heavily favor Puppy >>> Kerset > midway

My opinion on Kerset v. midway isn't very important at this point though. I just need to be sure it's Puppy. And to be honest I haven't found as compelling reason to townread him as i would compared to the other two lately
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Post Post #916 (isolation #52) » Wed Aug 26, 2020 4:17 pm

Post by Fidget »

Trusssssst in me midway. Vote with me
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Post Post #919 (isolation #53) » Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:22 pm

Post by Fidget »

In post 917, midwaybear wrote:Then puppy is going to do more ATE and I’ll feel bad...
Well, I guess I can't argue with that. He has sad puppy dog eyes at his disposal, I am just a nimbat.

When you think of reasons to townread Puppy, what's the first thing that comes to your mind?

For me, it's his tone and frustration with the game state. The sort of "Ugh, first you guys don't bother to play, and now you want to get rid of me. Whatever, I'm beyond caring" attitude. But that is not difficult to replicate as scum.

His contributions to the Ydrasse wagon were not as good as I may have thought at first.
In post 258, Umlaut wrote:
Vote Count 1.6
ready2rock
(3): , ,
Nosferatu
(2): ,
Ydrasse
(1):
midwaybear
(1):
Battle Mage
(1):
Blair
(1):

Not voting
(1):

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to launch.

Deadline
: (expired on 2020-08-04 23:30:00)
In post 260, innocentvillager wrote:I'm not done with r2r but god this slot is so boring VOTE: Ydrasse
In post 269, Nosferatu wrote:VOTE: ydrasse
In post 271, CantHateAPuppy wrote:I'll join you Blair!

VOTE: Ready2rock

Nobody is saying anything so it's time to pick a wagon
I like this one!
He did, after all, sheep my slot on the R2R wagon as the Ydrasse wagon was picking up steam. He didn't give any reasoning so I can't really scrutinize it further.

Puppy spent a boatload of time emphasizing how much he townread BM. Kerset is his top scumread now, though. I agree with him that Kerset's posting does not scream town, however, if I had started with a TR on BM as he would have, perhaps he would have been more open to the claim? Unsure, that's more speculative than anything, cause town does read 180s sure

It does somewhat feel like him jumping on Kerset when I expressed suspicion towards the slot, and then getting you to miseliminate me in Xylo was a super easy strategy. The townread on me is somewhat counter-intuitive, however.. I think he could win that Xylo when my slot already has your support for an elimination. Does it matter what his read on me is?

Spoiler: This exchange
In post 351, Umlaut wrote:
Vote Count 1.9
Dunnstral
(4): , , ,
Blair
(2): ,
Ydrasse
(1):
ready2rock
(1):
midwaybear
(1):

Not voting
(1):

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to launch.

Deadline
: (expired on 2020-08-04 23:30:00)
In post 360, ready2rock wrote:
In post 357, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 347, midwaybear wrote:Alright, we going Dunnstral today?
So you have nothing else to say?
Dude what are you on about? He has one of the most substantial ISOs of anyone in this game

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Dunnstral

L-1. I'm hopeful that this is a scum slot, and it is at the very least a slot that has been unhelpful to town
In post 363, CantHateAPuppy wrote:
In post 311, innocentvillager wrote:VOTE: Dunnstral
sorry but i cant let you get away with this vote without some sort of explanation. it's my job to hold you accountable and you've given no stance on dunn at all except now to help vote for his almost-launch
In post 364, innocentvillager wrote:VOTE: Ydrasse
In post 367, CantHateAPuppy wrote:but for players not operating at our high level, can you explain why you voted for dunn in the first place
In post 368, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 367, CantHateAPuppy wrote:can you explain why you voted for dunn in the first place
because I was told to
In post 369, CantHateAPuppy wrote:ok

VOTE: ydrasse

I think this exchange here in particular held me up on Puppy for quite a while. IV joins the Dunn wagon then leaves it, Puppy questions him why he voted for Dunn, IV gives an explanation, and then Puppy sheeps him onto Ydrasse

I think it is quite possible scum!Puppy thinks Dunn is going to be eliminated, and he wants to get the suspicions flowing in a way. He doesn't oppose the Dunn wagon, however, he's trying to hold IV accountable for joining it (which will potentially reflect poorly on IV after the miselim which scum!Puppy knows will happen)

Puppy is fine joining Ydrasse although it's tough for me to get into his mindset. Before this vote, looking across his ISO, he mentions wanting to launch Dunn and maybe Nosferatu, but
I SEE NO WHERE HE MENTIONS SUSPECTING YDRASSE.


This could potentially be scum setting himself up to look good deep later into the game. ("See, on D1 where everybody miseliminated Dunn, I was on the scum counter wagon!")
In post 408, CantHateAPuppy wrote:VOTE: Dunn

Too bad, I was going to switch before I saw the claim anyways : |
And this is the part where Puppy unvotes after the claim. He never returns to the Ydrasse wagon.

He spends the rest of the time he has advocating for a third option other than Dunn/Ydrasse that was never going to happen from what i can tell (midway). My slot joined him too but EHHHHH
In post 484, Battle Mage wrote:Research complete. Most mini normals with town gunsmith have no cop.

VOTE: Ydrasse
Contrast this with BM who does a ton of research and determines that Ydrasse is incompatible with the setup. He didn't have to do that, but he did. Could be a bus could not be but the fact remains that he didn't have to condemn Ydrasse like that
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Post Post #920 (isolation #54) » Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:25 pm

Post by Fidget »

In post 918, ready2rock wrote:
In post 877, Fidget wrote: My current vote is just going to be agreement with r2r's decision. If the deadline were ending in 5 minutes I'd vote Kerset. I think if I said screw everything and just read the last 4 or 5ish pages, I'd say my reads would be scum>Kerset>Puppy>Midway
In post 914, Fidget wrote: I heavily favor Puppy >>> Kerset > midway
Understanding that the first quote is not quite your full reads because of that qualifier, this is still a fairly big shift. Can you explain what specifically caused it?
My revelation I had at 5 AM about midway not looking NEARLY as good as I thought he did. My Kerset read was clouded because I just could not understand where he was getting midway being the scummiest from.

This is the post that made me want to reexamine the game:
In post 879, Kerset wrote:If midway is scum and he wins then i am going to call all of you bad rather then him good. For 2 recent days he haven't even been pretending to scumhunt or solve. He keeps nodding to other people and follows common agreements.
This feels like a genuine reaction to me. He's insulting us! For not following his scumread on midway. It felt to me there had to be something I had twisted

Additionally, I am sheeping your comment on Umlaut liking to throw some random wrench in his setups. I wouldn't know, but I trust you on that and this certainly could qualify as one
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Post Post #921 (isolation #55) » Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:28 pm

Post by Fidget »

I wasn't planning on continuing to fight after my "Au revoir" post but you guys are making me feel like I have a chance at shifting this to Puppy and I cannot help myself.

If your judgment is already set in stone, I ask that you put a stop to my rambling. I might not even be right about Puppy which will make it more embarrassing.

Alternatively, if this discussion does interest you, I will gladly continue on until the moment I'm shoved into the cannon
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Post Post #922 (isolation #56) » Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:43 pm

Post by Fidget »

In post 921, Fidget wrote:cannon
**TREBUCHET
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Post Post #945 (isolation #57) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 7:12 am

Post by Fidget »

In post 929, CantHateAPuppy wrote:Fidget, why do you want me so badly? There's a big case you've written up but it looks more like different thoughts trying to convince yourself. Always believed a good belief just needs one reason (though I don't do that myself always lol). Can you boil it down to one reason (or are we beyond talking -- if your read is that strong don't bother I guess)
Enough talking! Tome for the trebuchet.

kidding...

I can't imagine it being midway and to a lesser extent don't think its Kerset.

in that post I reviewed D1 for what must be the third time to see if there are any interactions that clear you. I don't believe there is.

I think your play today has been mostly dominstead by mechanical speculation and somewhat frustration AtE. That's not all you do, but those parts in particular are not hard to fake

Oh I suppose the boiled down reason is "It's not those two. It can be Puppy. Kill Puppy"

As a lot of people are saying I do believe scum is 0paying strong here, I dont think I'll be able to find a major scumtell in your ISO
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Post Post #946 (isolation #58) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 7:14 am

Post by Fidget »

In post 925, Kerset wrote:
In post 916, Fidget wrote:Trusssssst in me midway. Vote with me
In post 917, midwaybear wrote:Then puppy is going to do more ATE and I’ll feel bad...
It... just sounds like irony. This is influence at emotional level at its basis.
You call that AtE?! I call this AtE
In post 821, CantHateAPuppy wrote:you can scumread me if you want, i'm tired of this game and not sure how much im going to fight it

spent the whole game posting against a lurkbase, talking to blank walls, then having to compromise because nobody's around to work things out. think i played a bad day 1 but that was over a month ago now. not going to hash it all out again at the finish. w/e

pedit: leaving this post as-is lol
Sidenote: if this is not AtE, I am sorry Puppy. It just looks like it
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Post Post #947 (isolation #59) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 7:17 am

Post by Fidget »

Puppy I think your plan was initially "Stress townread Fidget (to throw us off I guess and to be consistent with the read you've had this hold time), eliminate Kerset using her suspicions on Kerset, eliminate Fidget on the next day using midways preexisting suspicions"

It's a pretty slam dunk plan, you totally would have won that Xylo
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Post Post #948 (isolation #60) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 7:19 am

Post by Fidget »

In post 941, CantHateAPuppy wrote:Because it's another way scum could have been thinking about things. That's important to me. I want to touch the marble, I want to lick the marble, I want to date the marble, I want to feel the marble!!
i thoroughly enjoyed the reference attempt
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Post Post #949 (isolation #61) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 7:21 am

Post by Fidget »

Well ready2rock it looks like we're in perfect disagreement

Puppy -> Kerset
Kerset -> midway
midway -> Fidget
Fidget -> Puppy

Your move lol
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Post Post #954 (isolation #62) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:06 am

Post by Fidget »

In post 951, CantHateAPuppy wrote:
In post 947, Fidget wrote:Puppy I think your plan was initially "Stress townread Fidget (to throw us off I guess and to be consistent with the read you've had this hold time), eliminate Kerset using her suspicions on Kerset, eliminate Fidget on the next day using midways preexisting suspicions"

It's a pretty slam dunk plan, you totally would have won that Xylo
It would've been much easier for me to push you when that's what everyone else wanted, why would I trade a good mislaunch for the uncertainty of today's launch? It would be the wrong scumplay, since I can't predict the effect of a sub

Also I think if I were scum and I'd know what the deal is wrt the BP, I wouldn't need to spend that much time speculating in thread, it'd be a waste of my time when I could have laid the ground for some really effective dominance instead

Like your assumption is I'm playing a good scum game but if I were scum there'd be objectively better moves lol

Don't expect this to make a difference since your read is about day 1 wagons, but when I flip town you're going to have to resort your whole opinion on that and I'd rather we start now
well no if you flip town we just lose

I am not doubting that it's very possible town you plays this way I'm just feeling like I'm out of options when I compare you to the other two.
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Post Post #955 (isolation #63) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:08 am

Post by Fidget »

In post 950, CantHateAPuppy wrote:
In post 945, Fidget wrote:I think your play today has been mostly dominstead by mechanical speculation and somewhat frustration AtE. That's not all you do, but those parts in particular are not hard to fake
Yeah, but much harder to fake than the "lurk lurk lurk lurk lurk" strategy everybody else was following until we finally got some subs in

Go reconsider what *you'd* talk about in my place here
Yeah midway hasn't done a towny thing (but we're agreeing he's town) and Kerset hasn't really either (but BM was townie and I can't wrap my head around the claim business)

I would say effort-wise you're probably the highest which just makes it kind of upsetting I'm voting you tbh
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Post Post #956 (isolation #64) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:09 am

Post by Fidget »

Well Kerset had the post calling us all bad if midway flips scum which I decently liked but maybe I'm falling for his tricks there.

What a bothersome game!
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Post Post #959 (isolation #65) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:45 am

Post by Fidget »

everyone decided mid is town yes? (besides Kerset)

I too struggle to find him scummy although not as much as I did before. Ready2rock also disapproved of going back on him
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Post Post #965 (isolation #66) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:42 pm

Post by Fidget »

Wat no I think he's town and the one post I devoted to doubting that was met with
In post 897, ready2rock wrote:For midway, I've townread him since day 1 and I haven't had a compelling reason to re-evaluate that read, and I think now would be a bad time to try to rethink the entire game anyway. Mostly I find the fishing for town cred at the start of day 2 to be a thing that town!midway would definitely do, it felt genuine
and
In post 926, CantHateAPuppy wrote:The only thing I dislike about Fidg right now is her coming up with reasons why midway isn't so town after all, but then declaring he's off limits to her anyways
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Post Post #967 (isolation #67) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:49 pm

Post by Fidget »

I don't see why scum me does anything other than tout midway as confirmed town and proceed to demonize Kerset off of it

It's less that I'm declaring midway off-limits, I just reopened him to consideration and then decided on you over him. the big post a little ways back was me rereading both your D1s and that's the decision i came to
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Post Post #968 (isolation #68) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:50 pm

Post by Fidget »

But also having the conf town say he isn't interested in midway factors into it a bit I guess sure
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Post Post #969 (isolation #69) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:53 pm

Post by Fidget »

In post 963, CantHateAPuppy wrote:
In post 961, Kerset wrote:
In post 951, CantHateAPuppy wrote:It would've been much easier for me to push you when that's what everyone else wanted,
When?
When it was blair in the slot, feel like a couple people wanted to launch that
Also yeah it was but you need to get rid of two people not one. If you push someone other than me and call me town, you get to be like "Haha i was right" the next day and continue to push whoever you wanted all along

Or alternatively you can save me today and get your preferred option like Kerset eliminated, then 180 on me the next day. You would probably win that Xylo since mid already wants me

Really if you just went with consensus and pushed me me me the whole way through today, you'd probably be at the bottom of the totem pole tomorrow with nowhere to go

Also I believe you townread Blair earlyish on so I guess it only makes sense for scum or town you to continue on with that read
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Post Post #972 (isolation #70) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:59 pm

Post by Fidget »

I believe I already mentioned, but the Kerset post calling us all bad made me want to think about it more. It felt really genuine to me and I wondered if I was in the wrong on midway.

To an extent, I was wrong. But yeah, i still think mid is town. My opinion on Kerset shifted as a result of that though

pedit: Yeah idk where we're going with this
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Post Post #973 (isolation #71) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 1:01 pm

Post by Fidget »

In post 962, Kerset wrote:
In post 959, Fidget wrote:everyone decided mid is town yes? (besides Kerset)
What is the deal with this phasing? That basically just means puppy and r2r. Its obvious that midway doesn't vote for himself.
I missed this

I don't see the issue with the phrasing really. I was under the impression no one but you suspects Kerset
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Post Post #974 (isolation #72) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 1:01 pm

Post by Fidget »

In post 973, Fidget wrote:
In post 962, Kerset wrote:
In post 959, Fidget wrote:everyone decided mid is town yes? (besides Kerset)
What is the deal with this phasing? That basically just means puppy and r2r. Its obvious that midway doesn't vote for himself.
I missed this

I don't see the issue with the phrasing really. I was under the impression no one but you suspects midway
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Post Post #976 (isolation #73) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:18 pm

Post by Fidget »

Your Kerset/midway reads factored into my own but to be honest didn't consider you're scumreading Puppy, I figured I was your top SR
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Post Post #977 (isolation #74) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:20 pm

Post by Fidget »

I did what I could. Hope you're scum, Puppy!

But if Kerset or midway is scum, I believe they played well. Kerset more for the claim and BM's early play, and same for midway's early play. I think Puppy stood out as the highest effort for this day, midway wasn't really present to do much other than reiterate I'm his favorite ;-;
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Post Post #980 (isolation #75) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:35 pm

Post by Fidget »

Hey, I gave it a decent shot, didn't I? ;)
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Post Post #982 (isolation #76) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:37 pm

Post by Fidget »

Maybe I shouldn't have sunk so much effort into something that was a foregone conclusion, even if I had managed to get a miselimination today.

But I always have to try my best!
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Post Post #983 (isolation #77) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:39 pm

Post by Fidget »

Midway what made you so sure it was Blair (and by extension me)? This is a really impressive game for you I think
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Post Post #986 (isolation #78) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:42 pm

Post by Fidget »

yeah, his puppy dog eyes were quite convincing. Even I felt bad trying to push him
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Post Post #987 (isolation #79) » Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:43 pm

Post by Fidget »

In post 985, ready2rock wrote:
In post 980, Fidget wrote:Hey, I gave it a decent shot, didn't I? ;)
A very decent one!

Honestly I was really engaged in the ending of this game, in large part thanks to the work you were putting in
I'm glad I could make it.. interesting!
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Post Post #1158 (isolation #80) » Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:36 pm

Post by Fidget »

Well played all of you!

sorry i doubted u puppy I don't know what possessed me to 180 off Kerset. Great job obvtowning mid! And Kerset/BM played really well too for sure.
Kerset wrote:Fidget i answered your questions in my PT.
"Why would Kerset do something that obviously doesn't help him?!"

"well cause you'd think of that duh"

Gah!

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