Mini 2156: Launch Mob [Game Over]

[midwaybear]

You sound like you would suspect people for having different opinion then you.

What does this even mean?
I want to town read Fidget now...

[Kerset]

Okay lets look at their entire exchange

Spoiler: MidwayxYdrasse

@midway: i guess it wasn't clear and that's on me but i don't actually sr you or mafia goon because i haven't taken this seriously yet.

Ok, it just didn't really sound like you were joking to me.

@IV I was thinking there would be 2 scum because 3 seems like a bit too much for a 10p game. I'm not sure though, and it's interesting that there are 10 players instead of 9.

i am a bit suspicious of you being a mafia goon.

Is this legit?

The puppy is cool

@Ydrasse: don't worry. It might look like a lot, but I'm still posting those one liners
I'll reply to BM later, but @BM what made you change your vote? Was it something I did or something Nosferatu did?

my question is: are dumb pushes more prone to come from town or scum though.

They come from both alignments.

i am willing to accept the L

???

My take on what Nosferatu means about Blair/Dunn is that Blair's push on Dunn didn't make sense and thus might have been too informed. However, I think Blair raised a fair point. Also, do you still scumread me blair?

I hope I can post more tomorrow. I think I will VOTE: Ydrasse. I see merit in the Nosferatu wagon, but I think this is fine too.

i sheep this

VOTE: ready2rock

i don't think that ready2rock's statement about nosferatu is really that confident though, tbf. "very combatitive" is strong wording ig but given that it's pinned on as an afterthought i'd argue that there isn't a lot of heart in it.

yeah this is sorta a hedge. I feel better about my vote.

also i've been meaning to ask this for like five games now but what in the world does partner equity actually mean.

It means that two people have an above random chance of being wolves together maybe because of a specific interaction(or lack thereof).
I'm lazy so I am going to call Battle Mage's wall town and desperately pray that he isn't scum taking advantage of heavy apathy. Dunnstral legit always plays in a pretty scummy way, but I guess that's no reason not to vote him. I need to hear from him more.

i hope im doing the right thing

i am an investigative role

This is low key scummy because you aren’t specifying what role. I still will vote ydrasse though
VOTE: Ydrasse

Ydrasse will be the first scum I caught and successfully wagoned. I hope at least.

bruh I started the ydrasse wagon
gimme my towncred

VOTE: Ydrasse

Gimme my towncred now.

i scumread her first, and I don't bus.
I'm not scum here

65, 124 and 144 are not serious at all. 197 and 289 are NAI conversations and in 216 mid decided to cast empty vote. 238 is shading, which could count at pushing his target. 454, 493, 504 and 508 he decided to ask for towncred...

Did i miss any posts or maybe we are talking about different game? First he pushed BM and at later phase, he spend slightly more time on pushing dunn and off tracking over ydra. He was more interested in bragging about ydra to make people memorize his vote placement rather then ensuring his elimination.

[Kerset]

You sound like you would suspect people for having different opinion then you.

What does this even mean?
I want to town read Fidget now...

His argument is about me and puppy being scummy are our opinions. The fact that we townread his slot, while he expect us to scumread it? Also he dislikes the fact that i scumread you, while he finds you towny. Different read is supposed to be scum indicative.

[CantHateAPuppy]

i townread-ed blair because of i've played her before and think i have a sense for her and i think her slot is just inactive / lurking not scum

maybe not worth having at my most townread, idk, im going back and forth over herer

but i don't think it matters, i really don't think we're in LYLO, so i think i can pick 2/3 of kerset/midway/fidget

[CantHateAPuppy]

man im still salty we launched dunn

now i kinda want to launch midway too, and "launch the people in your townbloc" is not really the game-winning strategy for which im known and loved. (unless it works in which case it was totally the plan all along >_>)

fidget please weigh in on the roleclaim stuff. im not sure it actually helps me figure out who i want to launch, and that whole conversation might be keeping me from figuring out who i want to launch, but it definitely helps me feel less confused to have a strong opinion about *something*, which i appreciate

[Kerset]

We finally got a player, who actually makes a reads on players based on backed up data. Does nightkill analysis, which for some reason everyone overlooked. Meantime you for entire week all you are interested in is roleclaim roleclaim roleclaim roleclaim lets talk about roleclaim and how about we doubt roleclaim and lets ask about roleclaim

[Kerset]

just roleclaim

JUST ROLECLAIM

[CantHateAPuppy]

it's not healthy to bottle ur emotions up like that

VOTE: kerset

[Kerset]

you are the one bottling up my nerves

[midwaybear]

well since puppy and kerset have both popped in and fidget has not been quickhammered: there's either no traitor or she is just scum.
@Kerset They actually were serious. I was suspicious of Ydrasse initially because she said she scumread me and MG, but then said it was a joke. I did not think that was townie, so that's why I said "it didn't sound like a joke".

[Fidget]

You sound like you would suspect people for having different opinion then you.

Hehe, sometimes

Part of the way I like to try and catch scum is noticing opinions that seem odd. Like scum is forced into situations where they have to fabricate scumreads, or at least overlook things people are doing that are towny.

I also may just be incorrect about how well the first elimination spews midway as town, or maybe we do just disagree, but that's what im here to figure out!

well since puppy and kerset have both popped in and fidget has not been quickhammered: there's either no traitor or she is just scum.
@Kerset They actually were serious. I was suspicious of Ydrasse initially because she said she scumread me and MG, but then said it was a joke. I did not think that was townie, so that's why I said "it didn't sound like a joke".

Well you're in the scumteam in the event we're dealing with a goon/traitor combo right now. And Kerset wouldn't be.

[Fidget]

If you assume the vigilante misses his shot, and there's a traitor/goon combo left, this is the setup we play with the 9 left:

Town Gunsmith (Has 1 false innocent, 1 false guilty)
Town 1-shot Vigilante
Town Backup Bulletproof
Townie
Townie
Townie

Mafia Bulletproof Traitor
Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon

Town only gets 1 miselim and their lone PR has an extremely high chance of just getting wrong results lol

For my sanity, let's assume there's 2 mafia. Assume vig will miss his shot again:

Town Gunsmith (Has 1 false innocent, 1 false guilty)
Town 1-shot Vigilante
Town Backup Bulletproof
Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie

Mafia Bulletproof
Mafia Goon

Town gets 2 miselims, a gunsmith, and the vig attempt. Much better this way.

The backup bulletproof is so odd to me though if scum really does have a bulletproof. Why is scum slapped in the face like that lol. Red herring I could see

[Fidget]

Okay lets look at their entire exchange

Spoiler: MidwayxYdrasse

@midway: i guess it wasn't clear and that's on me but i don't actually sr you or mafia goon because i haven't taken this seriously yet.

Ok, it just didn't really sound like you were joking to me.

@IV I was thinking there would be 2 scum because 3 seems like a bit too much for a 10p game. I'm not sure though, and it's interesting that there are 10 players instead of 9.

i am a bit suspicious of you being a mafia goon.

Is this legit?

The puppy is cool :cool:

@Ydrasse: don't worry. It might look like a lot, but I'm still posting those one liners :)
I'll reply to BM later, but @BM what made you change your vote? Was it something I did or something Nosferatu did?

my question is: are dumb pushes more prone to come from town or scum though.

They come from both alignments.

i am willing to accept the L

???

My take on what Nosferatu means about Blair/Dunn is that Blair's push on Dunn didn't make sense and thus might have been too informed. However, I think Blair raised a fair point. Also, do you still scumread me blair?

I hope I can post more tomorrow. I think I will VOTE: Ydrasse. I see merit in the Nosferatu wagon, but I think this is fine too.

i sheep this

VOTE: ready2rock

i don't think that ready2rock's statement about nosferatu is really that confident though, tbf. "very combatitive" is strong wording ig but given that it's pinned on as an afterthought i'd argue that there isn't a lot of heart in it.

yeah this is sorta a hedge. I feel better about my vote.

also i've been meaning to ask this for like five games now but what in the world does partner equity actually mean.

It means that two people have an above random chance of being wolves together maybe because of a specific interaction(or lack thereof).
I'm lazy so I am going to call Battle Mage's wall town and desperately pray that he isn't scum taking advantage of heavy apathy. Dunnstral legit always plays in a pretty scummy way, but I guess that's no reason not to vote him. I need to hear from him more.

i hope im doing the right thing

i am an investigative role

This is low key scummy because you aren’t specifying what role. I still will vote ydrasse though
VOTE: Ydrasse

Ydrasse will be the first scum I caught and successfully wagoned. I hope at least.

bruh I started the ydrasse wagon
gimme my towncred :D

VOTE: Ydrasse

Gimme my towncred now.

i scumread her first, and I don't bus.
I'm not scum here

65, 124 and 144 are not serious at all. 197 and 289 are NAI conversations and in 216 mid decided to cast empty vote. 238 is shading, which could count at pushing his target. 454, 493, 504 and 508 he decided to ask for towncred...

Did i miss any posts or maybe we are talking about different game? First he pushed BM and at later phase, he spend slightly more time on pushing dunn and off tracking over ydra. He was more interested in bragging about ydra to make people memorize his vote placement rather then ensuring his elimination.

Okay, I understand better now. I do not believe midwaybear would hard bus his partner as he would have here, though. I feel there were other options for him to vote but he decided to go after Ydrasse. It's a a conscious decision to bus, and he was quite serious about it from the moment he voted her as you can see in the following posts:

i sheep this

VOTE: ready2rock

i don't think that ready2rock's statement about nosferatu is really that confident though, tbf. "very combatitive" is strong wording ig but given that it's pinned on as an afterthought i'd argue that there isn't a lot of heart in it.

yeah this is sorta a hedge. I feel better about my vote.

We should probably hang Ydrasse if nothing new comes up.

So if he's scum it was definitely intentional. Maybe they were planning for the cop claim to save her?

i hope im doing the right thing

i am an investigative role

This is low key scummy because you aren’t specifying what role. I still will vote ydrasse though
VOTE: Ydrasse

Ehhhhhh if midway were trying to claim his credit here, why the hell would he shade IV and still vote Ydrasse? Surely he'd pick one or the other?

BM chose to wait until IV gave more info. Midway was like "Okay Imma vote Ydrasse but you're kinda scummy too", which is just such an odd thing to say honestly even as either alignment but also as scum trying to get credit. speaking of credit:

Spoiler: midway wants his credit

Ydrasse will be the first scum I caught and successfully wagoned. I hope at least.

Reads like scum positioning to join the wagon (whether ydrasse is scum or not)

I literally started her wagon and only unvoted/revoted to vote Dunn and revote her...

bruh I started the ydrasse wagon
gimme my towncred :D

VOTE: Ydrasse

Gimme my towncred now.

i scumread her first, and I don't bus.
I'm not scum here

I think this is the scum first wagon midway has been a major part of. A big moment for him, I'm sure. I checked to see how he treats his partner in his scum game.

Doesn't speak a word to his partner til his 22nd post, and it's just a comment. Gives a hard town read on his partner with no explanation in 276. Throws shade on partner in 305. Admits to not reading the case on his partner in 416.

Idk it's certainly a huge difference if he's scum with Ydrasse here.

I think that one of the mafia members is midway. He lacks of commitment to his own leads. Technically he picked Ydrasse to be his target but his whole agenda was only about pursuing dunn at the time and lynching him. Ydr is only mentioned in terms of receiving credit for his eventual flip.

I dont think this is an accurate depiction of his day one. He has a certain quality to his reads where he jumps around the place that often gets him perceived as scum, yeah. Calling his whole agenda pursuing Dunn is a huge stretch, isn't that what Blair did? He mentions Ydrasse as being who he wants to get rid of quite a bit, not just in his many credit-grabbing posts.

Midway didn't explain much of why he wanted to get rid of Ydrasse, but I expect him to usually not have a ton of justification behind his reads. All I know is he very clearly wanted her dead, or at least wanted to put her on the stand over Dunn/the other options. Up until the claim, and even then he went back to her immediately after the CC. BM did not. Why do that?

[Fidget]

Feel like BM would have crumbed his role at some point, but i can't find it. Closest I can get is maybe this:

I think this comes from town. I don't think newbie scum chooses to gun for me when there's no momentum and it's likely that I get all OMGUSy and tunnel-visiony which just brings them into the limelight.

But that's not an unusual phrase to use tbh

[Umlaut]

ready2rock was prodded.

[midwaybear]

wow now I'm townreading Fidget...
I think Kerset is just town at this point though, and since Fidget wasn't quickhammered this should be an auto win?

[Fidget]

Thinking about the idea that Kerset is lying, what would scum's motivation would be to make a claim that added urgency to the town (by saying that we're in lylo) and was also unverifiable, making people skeptical of you and your claim?

Seems like it'd be overplaying for no reason

Mm I'm not sure. Falsely claiming that we're in Xylo doesn't make a ton of sense for scum..

Scum Kerset can claim there's 2 scum left all he wants but it'd come crashing down when we miselim and go to the next day. Hm..

[Fidget]

OH r2r shot Nosferatu and scum shot Mafia Goon. Dunno why i got that twisted.

We finally got a player, who actually makes a reads on players based on backed up data. Does nightkill analysis, which for some reason everyone overlooked. Meantime you for entire week all you are interested in is roleclaim roleclaim roleclaim roleclaim lets talk about roleclaim and how about we doubt roleclaim and lets ask about roleclaim

Was this referring to me? My tiny bit of NKA was in a fantasy world cause I was speculating on why Nosferatu got killed by scum

Mafia Goon was a solid kill, i recall him being decently townread and having good reads towards on Ydrasse and r2r

[Fidget]

Currently thinking I was mistaken on Kerset and scum!Puppy saw his one opportunity to win through miseliming Kerset -> NKing r2r -> winning Xylo by convincing midway to vote me

That, or Puppy is genuinely town who thinks the way i was thinking earlier. But I hadn't thought about the BP claim much at the time, Puppy has had quite some time to do so I take it

Does anyone here townread Puppy? Nothing about his contributions on D1 to the Ydrasse v. Dunn wagons, nor his D2 sticks out to me as super town

Also, I do not believe there's a traitor. The gunsmith would be total garbage and then town's only PR is a 1-shot vig and (presumably) a fake backup BP

[Fidget]

If this setup is 7v3, then if town miselims D1 and vig misfires N1, the game is already sudden death at 4v3 where town CANNOT make a mistake for 3 elims in a row. And the gunsmith has a fake guilty and a fake inno. I doubt that's fair (although idk setup design)

The only reason we're entertaining the thought of a traitor is probably because we eliminated a mafia member D1 so it seems more plausible

[Fidget]

Town Gunsmith
Town 1-shot Vigilante
Town Backup Bulletproof
Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie

Mafia Power Role
Mafia Goon

You could consider the backup bulletproof to be negative utility as a red herring, I guess?

I do not think it makes sense for a townie to inherit bonus power in the event a scum player dies, at least in this setup where town are up an extra player and get a freebie vig shot

[midwaybear]

Hmm. I just need to convince myself Kerset is town, and this game is ezpz.
You don’t need to effort so much!

[Fidget]

I would like to try and call scum correctly.

At the moment I am thinking it must be Puppy if Kerset's claim is to be taken as a clear, as I do not believe you bussed Ydrasse, and r2r is off the table

I notice Puppys contributions today have been mostly role/mechanical speculation, as well as suspecting Kerset.

I do believe if he's scum, then r2r and kerset were probably the two he was intending on pushing for the next two days. Unfortunately he was cut off by role claims galore, and the two he townread the strongest (you and I) are actually the VTs. Maybe that disrupted him somehow

one thing I do kind of like about Puppy is his reads aren't terribly consistent

he went from between you and I

kerset why were you thinking it's midway

fmpov it's not r2r and u'd be more likely as traitor so im thinking between blair and midway atm

to Kerset ?

i don't know your current level of trust in me, i though it was mediocre

This looks really really weak

it's not healthy to bottle ur emotions up like that

VOTE: kerset

[Fidget]

Kerset, do you think Puppy is on the scumteam in the scenario there's two scum left?

[Umlaut]

...