Mini Normal 2211 || Summer Meet [Endgame]

[osuka]

like i didnt do it to incriminate hem. the fact that there was _no_ kill at all is what incriminates him, and that's just a consequence of me having protected you because i thought you could be a target. that's for two reasons: 1, i think youre town and most importantly 2, i've openly and strongly defended your slot. so, yes, any scum would probably realize that killing you is a good idea because not only does it get rid of a townie, it also really implicates me ("how was osuka so sure lemons was town?"). part of the reason was self-preservation, honestly, and i guess it worked out

though i suppose sure, now that i've actually written that out it probably does mean that this doesn't implicate hem as much as i thought it did at first

[osuka]

i have to reevaluate this game. i thought this was a possibility but i definitely didnt come in expecting it to be the case so i have some thinking to do

[osuka]

that all said: i have no idea what the fuck the votecount is at and i'm about to go to a friend's house here so i'll be on later to figure out what the fuck is going on

i promise to be back tomorrow morning (should be about 12h from now?)

VOTE: osuka you're hammered

this post puts osuka at E-1, and is obviously not a real hammer. if he and osuka are partners, then what is the motivation for making this post? i can find one, but it's pretty convoluted; perhaps bugspray does this to:
1) distance himself from osuka while also
2) creating an opportunity for osuka to fakeclaim without needing to rely on the whim of a townie who's declared intent, and
3) stop momentum on an osuka wagon before it got to the point where an actual townie

could

declare intent

writing this out, it seems a whole lot more complex than anything else we've seen from bugspray. if this is what happened, i'd have to imagine it was osuka's idea. but why make such a risky fakeclaim gambit in the first place?

just

to take heat off the wagon in the wake of a PR claim? was he really formulating his incriminate-hem plan this far back? i have to jump through a lot of hoops to make this make sense, but it's been a long day and i'm very tired. maybe someone else can do a better job.

first of all, i'm pretty sure ive seen bugspray fake hammer like that at least twice in the past. that said, i think what you're really supposed to be asking yourself is: why would i suggest that? if this was my idea in your hypothesis, then it was ultimately my intent to distance myself from bugspray. why would i distance myself from that slot by proxy? why would i force myself to be in a situation where

here's a better question: if i knew bugspray was scum and at risk of being lynched, why would i not hop on the dunnstral wagon to avoid a bugspray flip? why has nobody pointed that out? isn't that a strong associative?

[osuka]

i have to reevaluate this game.

when you're done, let me know if you still think hem scumslipped

yesterday? i'm not so sure anymore. ive reread a lot of the game and honestly i kind of just got tunnel vision and convinced myself that he was scum, so everything else about the gamestate in my mind was constructed around that. i got pretty badly confbiased because he said and did a lot of stupid shit that annoyed me though honestly i realize now that could've just come from a VI instead of scum. that was the reason i concluded sort of immediately after a no flip that the nk was on you therefore it must have meant that hem was trying to implicate me, when in fact that actually sort of makes sense for any scum here

[osuka]

If osuka flips TPR, we lynch Lemons. Town!Lemons will never be the NK if he'll be in the chopping block today and a push for his lynch can be pulled off today. We had much more townier folks that came out of Day 1 from bugs lynch. I think the explanation is that Lemons is the one who performed the NK.

If osuka flips scum, I won't be surprised. He didn't crumb. Yesterday's play was atrocious and points to scum. Today's play was atrocious and points to scum. His PR strategy did not make any bit of sense, and he doesn't even have a full grasp of who he did the night action on. And then, we consider if we still want to lynch Lemons or anyone else.

This is the ending of this day.

see this is the kind of dumpster fire dogshit i'm talking about. there's no way this comes from town, right? on the other hand, maybe he's got his head an astronomical unit up his ass and actually just isn't making any sense whatsoever

why does my TPR flip implicate lemons? how the fuck do you get to this conclusion? i would say this takes the cake for dumbest post in thread but honestly with the rest of your iso i'm really not that sure

[osuka]

If nobody else claims something that can stop a kill, then osuka is not a good vote.

Also bugspray was on osuka's e-1 wagon

i have to say, i find dunnstral popping in here

just

to defend osuka, and not to comment on the flip, lack of night kill, hem, vfp, me, or

voice any other thoughts at all

, a little suspect.

while the lack of a counterclaim suggests that there are no protectives in a scum!osuka universe, that alone doesn't really dissuade me in the face of all the other evidence. especially not since, as far as i can see, osuka never even mentioned the lack of a counterclaim in the process of defending himself. you'd think an actual PR would point to that as evidence.

the point about bugspray being on osuka's wagon is a little better. for reference, here's the post where he votes:

that all said: i have no idea what the fuck the votecount is at and i'm about to go to a friend's house here so i'll be on later to figure out what the fuck is going on

i promise to be back tomorrow morning (should be about 12h from now?)

VOTE: osuka you're hammered

this post puts osuka at E-1, and is obviously not a real hammer. if he and osuka are partners, then what is the motivation for making this post? i can find one, but it's pretty convoluted; perhaps bugspray does this to:
1) distance himself from osuka while also
2) creating an opportunity for osuka to fakeclaim without needing to rely on the whim of a townie who's declared intent, and
3) stop momentum on an osuka wagon before it got to the point where an actual townie

could

declare intent

writing this out, it seems a whole lot more complex than anything else we've seen from bugspray. if this is what happened, i'd have to imagine it was osuka's idea. but why make such a risky fakeclaim gambit in the first place?

just

to take heat off the wagon in the wake of a PR claim? was he really formulating his incriminate-hem plan this far back? i have to jump through a lot of hoops to make this make sense, but it's been a long day and i'm very tired. maybe someone else can do a better job.

wouldn't the simple explanation be to distance

it's really not that complex lemons

i don't like how under the satellite gera and hyena are being right now

yeah you're right lol the explanation still makes sense if you just leave out points 2 and 3

okay i think we can safely disregard Dunn's point about bugs being on his wagon then because 880 could easily just be distancing

again - that's a shit way to distance myself from that slot. if i wanted to do it, first i wouldve done it myself, and second i wouldve done it much earlier

it was fairly obvious that bugspray was at the top of at least some people's lynch list as early as ~400. the slot sort of didn't do shit - that's a very easy way to get exec'd d1

[osuka]

side note: have any of you fucks asked yourselves how it is that you're so convinced i'm scum but there's been nearly zero resistance other than my own to the wagon that's been going on since the beginning of the game? if you're saying i'm being hardbussed right now that's somewhat understandable, even if very questionable because as scum you're fucked if d1 and d2 both flip red - but if you're saying i was being hardbussed on page 20, you're out of your fucking mind

[osuka]

If osuka flips TPR, we lynch Lemons. Town!Lemons will never be the NK if he'll be in the chopping block today and a push for his lynch can be pulled off today. We had much more townier folks that came out of Day 1 from bugs lynch. I think the explanation is that Lemons is the one who performed the NK.

If osuka flips scum, I won't be surprised. He didn't crumb. Yesterday's play was atrocious and points to scum. Today's play was atrocious and points to scum. His PR strategy did not make any bit of sense, and he doesn't even have a full grasp of who he did the night action on. And then, we consider if we still want to lynch Lemons or anyone else.

This is the ending of this day.

if osuka flips TPR then we flip the one person who's softcleared as a result? yeah, no. as far as i know, rolestops don't do anything to prevent outgoing actions, so if i was trying to perform the night kill i still would've been able to. why are you trying so hard to make me guilty by association even on a townflip? unless i'm misreading, this push for my lim tomorrow doesn't make any sense if osuka really is TPR

i would like to hold off on osuka's elimination until after he reevaluates, because even a fake reevaluation will give us more info to go on after the flip. agreed?

assume i'm scum - why does anything i say hold weight? can you even take anything said by scum at face value?

[osuka]

I think osuka and lemons are both town.

elaborate

[osuka]

If osuka flips TPR, we lynch Lemons.

Town!Lemons will never be the NK if he'll be in the chopping block today and a push for his lynch can be pulled off today. We had much more townier folks that came out of Day 1 from bugs lynch.

I think the explanation is that Lemons is the one who performed the NK.

If osuka flips scum, I won't be surprised. He didn't crumb. Yesterday's play was atrocious and points to scum. Today's play was atrocious and points to scum. His PR strategy did not make any bit of sense, and he doesn't even have a full grasp of who he did the night action on.

And then, we consider if we still want to lynch Lemons or anyone else.

This is the ending of this day.

This is still true

you're still killing my fucking brain cells - i'll try my best to use small words since you clearly are having some trouble

if you're town you've played like shit all game. your pushes don't make sense, your arguments are almost always fundamentally flawed, and what essentially amounts to a typo doesn't mean i don't have a grasp of who i did my night action on. you're trying so hard to make me look stupid that you're actually making everyone else in the game stupider because you're just giving everyone fucking brain damage

[osuka]

1385 builds on my own points so well that i really don't think there's anything that could convince me that osuka isn't scum here. i still kind of want to wait for him to get back in here for a last hurrah, but his "re-evaluation" is more than likely just an attempt to buy himself the time to figure out if there's any scenario in which he isn't absolutely fucked

ive been absolutely fucked since the beginning of the game because you just sort of assumed i was scum from like page 5

that being said i made a stupid mistake with the hem/lemons brain fart on the post where i put out the night action and like three of you decided it was a scumslip in the same way that happened yesterday (how the turntables turn), except that right now you're saying that _that_ was weird but hey this totally isn't. there's scum motivation behind my wagon and you need to look into that because i guarantee there's at least one scum trying hard to get rid of me

[osuka]

i'm at e-1 by the way since t3 voted and didn't announce that

i assume the "3" in the nickname is the number of brain cells he's using to play this game

[osuka]

Quickly popping in before bed.
Osaku, you make it really easy for people to vote for you. I'm not sure how aware you come off, but you don't let people want to ever give you the benefit of the doubt (at least in this game).

This isn't me defending or attacking your slot, and I don't think I've played with you before, just an observation

oh yeah i know i frequently get lynched because people decide they dont like me

[osuka]

okay that's fine - we're saying dunnstral-osuka is not a strong associative. assuming i'm scum, doesn't that make him likely to be town?

if so - why wouldn't i put my vote behind the dunn wagon if i felt the game shifting towards a bugspray lynch? i'd rather have blood on my hands than a dead scum partner, because then in the absolute worst case (bugspray lynched d2) we've gained an extra day. how do you justify me not doing that? it makes zero sense to keep tunneling hem because his wagon was already really unlikely compared to dunn and bugspray, _and_ that was before it really was a choice between dunnstral and bugspray

[osuka]

i would like to hold off on osuka's elimination until after he reevaluates, because even a fake reevaluation will give us more info to go on after the flip. agreed?

assume i'm scum - why does anything i say hold weight? can you even take anything said by scum at face value?

i dunno man, you're saying lots of shit right now that will be valuable information either way. even if we can't take it at face value (although we

can

attempt to sift through the bullshit after the fact if you flip red), we can have the types of conversations we're having now, which is actively working towards a gamesolve.

here's a follow-up question: why would scum osuka be working towards a gamesolve? if i flip red, how do you know anything i say wasn't meant to throw you off?

[osuka]

okay that's fine - we're saying dunnstral-osuka is not a strong associative. assuming i'm scum, doesn't that make him likely to be town?

yeah, this goes against my earlier theory that there is partner equity between you and dunn. i have said for a while that i think VFP is much more likely, but see above.

@everyone if osuka + vfp are scum here do we really think the votecount i quoted above is a possibility? and if the answer is no and VFP is town, then osuka's point about there being little resistance to his wagon is a fair one.

if you think vfp is more likely then let's flip vfp

for the record i think he's probably going to flip green but i _know_ i'm going to flip green so really for me he is infinitely more likely to be scum

[osuka]

mmm actually no dunn can still be your partner here. just because it isn't a strong associative in a scum direction doesn't mean it is a strong associative in a town direction. if a dunn lim wasn't looking preventable and the alternative was your other partner (bugspray), then sticking with the hem vote makes sense. if questioned about why you weren't on the dunn wagon, you could counter that you said you'd vote him and only didn't do so because you weren't in the thread when he got close to a lim.

not saying this is definitely what happened, but i don't think you not voting dunn makes him town automatically

i kind of was on the thread when we were very close to a dunnstral exec though. my last post, when i voted hem, was when dunn was at e-3, and only hours later he was at e-1 - can you really imagine a universe where that exec _doesn't_ go through if my vote is on there?

[osuka]

there was some resistance to the hem wagon that was just not there with dunnstral. i voted and immediately after two more votes came along, which is almost exactly what happened with dunn (one vote came and another immediately followed). that shows two things: 1, it would be stupid for me, as scum, to not shift to dunnstral (if town), and 2, that may indicate that the dunnstral wagon actually had scum on it

[osuka]

so for that reason alone i'm somewhat inclined to believe that dunnstral may be town. the only reason that slot is still alive is because of the bugspray flashtrain

[osuka]

i meant afterwards. two votes came immediately but then everyone else refused to execute that slot - dunnstral's, on the other hand, was still on most peoples list of options up until we flipped bugspray

[osuka]

kinda sucks that i was semi randomly yeeted day 1 as scum and then the traitor rolestopper mediced a mason n1

personal rolestopper means i didnt actually protect the slot from the factional nk

[osuka]

traitor was a very difficult role. it was very hard to have had a genuine thought process while trying to mislead town and get the "wrong" slots executed

i knew bugspray was scum since like page 2 but i had no idea about vfp

[osuka]

that's surprising that you weren't even given information about who your partners were

i only got their roles, not who they were

i knew there was a mafia fruit vendor, that's why i knew bugspray was scum

[osuka]

the "XXXX" wasn't censored just on the flip, that's verbatim how i got that role pm

[osuka]

yeah what the fuck this was so much harder than it shouldve been

angery

[osuka]

i guess thats my dumbass' fault for not realizing i shouldve gotten mafia identities as the traitor