Mini Normal 2211 || Summer Meet [Endgame]

[InsidiousLemons]

just in case there's any doubt, i think vfp defended themself against my questions very poorly. i asked them repeatedly to give me a concrete scum motivation for umlaut's vote and they couldn't do it. contrast with this post from RotITGBSMoD (emphasis mine):

It's just a general feeling I'm not going to wallpost about it.

I'm not asking for a wall post, I'm asking for examples.

You can't claim that someone is scum hunting then just say it's a general feeling that they are scum hunting.

Someone either appearing as scum hunting or they aren't...

Give me 2 examples where Osuka is scum hunting.
That's not asking for a lot and it could even be the worthless "????" if you like.

it's not exactly the same thing, but in my mind there's just no way town!VFP makes such a weak and insubstantial push, especially since it's clear they know this variety of logic tends to come from scum.

[Cook]

votecount #4, day two

InsidiousLemons (3): humaneatingmonkey, T3, Ivyeo

humaneatingmonkey (2): osuka, VFP
T3 (1): Egix96

osuka (3): InsidiousLemons, Anya, Ivyeo

VFP (1): Umlaut

With 11 alive it takes 6 to flip or no-flip.

[Umlaut]

Informal VC while we wait for a formal one

osuka

(3): InsidiousLemons, Anya, Ivyeo

InsidiousLemons

(2): humaneatingmonkey, T3

humaneatingmonkey

(2): osuka, VFP

T3

(1): Egix96

VFP

(1): Umlaut

Not voting

(2): geraintm, Dunnstral

[Umlaut]

Now that I know the VC I'm comfortable swapping to

VOTE: osuka

[Ivyeo]

e-2

[InsidiousLemons]

if osuka and VFP are partners, i have to admit it would be bold of them to vote hem together here, especially when they're the only 2 doing so. but to be fair nobody had no idea where anyone else's votes were at the time, and VFP calling out hem and then not voting him would've probably looked more suspicious anyway, so it's only a small amount of negative equity and i think VFP is still the most probable partner

kinda getting ahead of myself though since osuka hasn't even flipped

[InsidiousLemons]

*nobody had any idea

EBWOP

[T3]

I don't scumread bugspray but I also didn't like Anya's vote. I think a town/scumflip would give us more info. VOTE: bug

I don't think I properly appreciated what a weird post+vote this was until gerain quoted it. But it's a really weird post+vote! Like, if you were asked to fill in the blank here:

• I don't scumread bugspray
  
• I don't like Anya's vote for bugspray
  
• So I will vote for ______

how do you ever fill that blank with "bugspray"?

I don't know what to make of this, right now I'm filing it in "weird move for town but also a weird move for scum," but I'd like it if T3 could comment on just what was going on in their head here.

People on the wagon whose votes i am not a fan of

Ivy's - their post 1028 is calling for an elimiantion between Dunn, Lemons and Me
759 was a defence of Bugspray
227 had bugspray as locktown

just makes me antsy

Okay, it might be surprising but what's the scum motivation? Why would scum!Ivy who is calling for an elimination between Dunn, Lemons and you suddenly flip around and agree to vote their buddy bugspray? It seems more like a towntell to me, I can see scum!Ivy voting Bugs if she's trying to keep up appearances but her progression doesn't match that at all.

bugspray was in my nulls early on and I didn't like the other wagons.

[T3]

I think osuka and lemons are both town.

What changed your mind about Lemons?

Good wallposts.

[T3]

i do get it, or at least i get what you're going for. i believe that you didn't mix up rolestopper and roleblocker at the time of your claim, sure. what i'm saying is that i think you forgot the specific function of your night action

at the time that you outed your target

, because you had a narrative in mind that you wanted to construct -- one which incriminates hem, and which implicates me when you flip scum. convenient.

when you send in your night action, you specifically target

one person

, and yes i do find it kind of hard to believe that you would forget who that one specific person was. i think hem was what slipped out because he was on your mind, because even though he wasn't your "target",

your action was more about harming hem than protecting me.

i think town!osuka would have been markedly less likely to make this mistake.

there is never going to be a way to prove conclusively whether you would or would not have made this mistake as town. but as i've said, flipping your slot is going to give us a lot of information either way. if you flip red, great. and even if you flip green, that

still

gives us a solid lead on hem and provides us with a frame of reference for what other PRs are more or less likely to coexist in the same game.

and lastly, why does it even have to be hem who shot at me? if the aim is simply to incriminate you and kill two birds with one stone, wouldn't

any

scum seize the same opportunity?

I actually think Lemons is on to something. It seems like Osuka is caught in a contradiction here.

• He first says he "rolestopped HEM" but let's assume he really did mean to say he rolestopped Lemons.
  
• Then he says the fact that there was no kill incriminates HEM, to the point where he
  instantly
  regarded HEM as caught scum this morning and cited his action as the reason, as if it were so conclusive that no more explanation need be given
  
• And says "I rolestopped [Lemons] so that HEM couldn't kill [them]"
  
• But then he says "i didnt do it to incriminate hem. the fact that there was _no_ kill at all is what incriminates him, and that's just a consequence of me having protected [Lemons] because i thought [they] could be a target."

I can't formulate a coherent state of mind for a town!Osuka to have had last night going into the start of this day, where all of these statements can be genuine. If Osuka rolestopped Lemons out of a belief they were the likely kill choice for

any

scumteam, then he should have expected to stop a kill and should not think it implicates HEM specifically. He absolutely should not think that "at first" as he says in 1350 that he did. Conversely, if Osuka rolestopped Lemons specifically because he thought

HEM

would target them, and also thought HEM was scum, he should know that's what he did and shouldn't be making a post like 1350 in the first place, where he tries to argue Lemons was a justified rolestop regardless of the team.

I think the error of saying "I rolestopped HEM" reveals that Osuka's mind was more on HEM than it is on Lemons, and so the explanation that he did not initially set out to implicate HEM is phony.

Oh!
That makes senae. VOTE: osuka

[osuka]

that all said: i have no idea what the fuck the votecount is at and i'm about to go to a friend's house here so i'll be on later to figure out what the fuck is going on

i promise to be back tomorrow morning (should be about 12h from now?)

VOTE: osuka you're hammered

this post puts osuka at E-1, and is obviously not a real hammer. if he and osuka are partners, then what is the motivation for making this post? i can find one, but it's pretty convoluted; perhaps bugspray does this to:
1) distance himself from osuka while also
2) creating an opportunity for osuka to fakeclaim without needing to rely on the whim of a townie who's declared intent, and
3) stop momentum on an osuka wagon before it got to the point where an actual townie

could

declare intent

writing this out, it seems a whole lot more complex than anything else we've seen from bugspray. if this is what happened, i'd have to imagine it was osuka's idea. but why make such a risky fakeclaim gambit in the first place?

just

to take heat off the wagon in the wake of a PR claim? was he really formulating his incriminate-hem plan this far back? i have to jump through a lot of hoops to make this make sense, but it's been a long day and i'm very tired. maybe someone else can do a better job.

first of all, i'm pretty sure ive seen bugspray fake hammer like that at least twice in the past. that said, i think what you're really supposed to be asking yourself is: why would i suggest that? if this was my idea in your hypothesis, then it was ultimately my intent to distance myself from bugspray. why would i distance myself from that slot by proxy? why would i force myself to be in a situation where

here's a better question: if i knew bugspray was scum and at risk of being lynched, why would i not hop on the dunnstral wagon to avoid a bugspray flip? why has nobody pointed that out? isn't that a strong associative?

[osuka]

i have to reevaluate this game.

when you're done, let me know if you still think hem scumslipped

yesterday? i'm not so sure anymore. ive reread a lot of the game and honestly i kind of just got tunnel vision and convinced myself that he was scum, so everything else about the gamestate in my mind was constructed around that. i got pretty badly confbiased because he said and did a lot of stupid shit that annoyed me though honestly i realize now that could've just come from a VI instead of scum. that was the reason i concluded sort of immediately after a no flip that the nk was on you therefore it must have meant that hem was trying to implicate me, when in fact that actually sort of makes sense for any scum here

[osuka]

If osuka flips TPR, we lynch Lemons. Town!Lemons will never be the NK if he'll be in the chopping block today and a push for his lynch can be pulled off today. We had much more townier folks that came out of Day 1 from bugs lynch. I think the explanation is that Lemons is the one who performed the NK.

If osuka flips scum, I won't be surprised. He didn't crumb. Yesterday's play was atrocious and points to scum. Today's play was atrocious and points to scum. His PR strategy did not make any bit of sense, and he doesn't even have a full grasp of who he did the night action on. And then, we consider if we still want to lynch Lemons or anyone else.

This is the ending of this day.

see this is the kind of dumpster fire dogshit i'm talking about. there's no way this comes from town, right? on the other hand, maybe he's got his head an astronomical unit up his ass and actually just isn't making any sense whatsoever

why does my TPR flip implicate lemons? how the fuck do you get to this conclusion? i would say this takes the cake for dumbest post in thread but honestly with the rest of your iso i'm really not that sure

[osuka]

If nobody else claims something that can stop a kill, then osuka is not a good vote.

Also bugspray was on osuka's e-1 wagon

i have to say, i find dunnstral popping in here

just

to defend osuka, and not to comment on the flip, lack of night kill, hem, vfp, me, or

voice any other thoughts at all

, a little suspect.

while the lack of a counterclaim suggests that there are no protectives in a scum!osuka universe, that alone doesn't really dissuade me in the face of all the other evidence. especially not since, as far as i can see, osuka never even mentioned the lack of a counterclaim in the process of defending himself. you'd think an actual PR would point to that as evidence.

the point about bugspray being on osuka's wagon is a little better. for reference, here's the post where he votes:

that all said: i have no idea what the fuck the votecount is at and i'm about to go to a friend's house here so i'll be on later to figure out what the fuck is going on

i promise to be back tomorrow morning (should be about 12h from now?)

VOTE: osuka you're hammered

this post puts osuka at E-1, and is obviously not a real hammer. if he and osuka are partners, then what is the motivation for making this post? i can find one, but it's pretty convoluted; perhaps bugspray does this to:
1) distance himself from osuka while also
2) creating an opportunity for osuka to fakeclaim without needing to rely on the whim of a townie who's declared intent, and
3) stop momentum on an osuka wagon before it got to the point where an actual townie

could

declare intent

writing this out, it seems a whole lot more complex than anything else we've seen from bugspray. if this is what happened, i'd have to imagine it was osuka's idea. but why make such a risky fakeclaim gambit in the first place?

just

to take heat off the wagon in the wake of a PR claim? was he really formulating his incriminate-hem plan this far back? i have to jump through a lot of hoops to make this make sense, but it's been a long day and i'm very tired. maybe someone else can do a better job.

wouldn't the simple explanation be to distance

it's really not that complex lemons

i don't like how under the satellite gera and hyena are being right now

yeah you're right lol the explanation still makes sense if you just leave out points 2 and 3

okay i think we can safely disregard Dunn's point about bugs being on his wagon then because 880 could easily just be distancing

again - that's a shit way to distance myself from that slot. if i wanted to do it, first i wouldve done it myself, and second i wouldve done it much earlier

it was fairly obvious that bugspray was at the top of at least some people's lynch list as early as ~400. the slot sort of didn't do shit - that's a very easy way to get exec'd d1

[osuka]

side note: have any of you fucks asked yourselves how it is that you're so convinced i'm scum but there's been nearly zero resistance other than my own to the wagon that's been going on since the beginning of the game? if you're saying i'm being hardbussed right now that's somewhat understandable, even if very questionable because as scum you're fucked if d1 and d2 both flip red - but if you're saying i was being hardbussed on page 20, you're out of your fucking mind

[osuka]

If osuka flips TPR, we lynch Lemons. Town!Lemons will never be the NK if he'll be in the chopping block today and a push for his lynch can be pulled off today. We had much more townier folks that came out of Day 1 from bugs lynch. I think the explanation is that Lemons is the one who performed the NK.

If osuka flips scum, I won't be surprised. He didn't crumb. Yesterday's play was atrocious and points to scum. Today's play was atrocious and points to scum. His PR strategy did not make any bit of sense, and he doesn't even have a full grasp of who he did the night action on. And then, we consider if we still want to lynch Lemons or anyone else.

This is the ending of this day.

if osuka flips TPR then we flip the one person who's softcleared as a result? yeah, no. as far as i know, rolestops don't do anything to prevent outgoing actions, so if i was trying to perform the night kill i still would've been able to. why are you trying so hard to make me guilty by association even on a townflip? unless i'm misreading, this push for my lim tomorrow doesn't make any sense if osuka really is TPR

i would like to hold off on osuka's elimination until after he reevaluates, because even a fake reevaluation will give us more info to go on after the flip. agreed?

assume i'm scum - why does anything i say hold weight? can you even take anything said by scum at face value?

[osuka]

I think osuka and lemons are both town.

elaborate

[osuka]

If osuka flips TPR, we lynch Lemons.

Town!Lemons will never be the NK if he'll be in the chopping block today and a push for his lynch can be pulled off today. We had much more townier folks that came out of Day 1 from bugs lynch.

I think the explanation is that Lemons is the one who performed the NK.

If osuka flips scum, I won't be surprised. He didn't crumb. Yesterday's play was atrocious and points to scum. Today's play was atrocious and points to scum. His PR strategy did not make any bit of sense, and he doesn't even have a full grasp of who he did the night action on.

And then, we consider if we still want to lynch Lemons or anyone else.

This is the ending of this day.

This is still true

you're still killing my fucking brain cells - i'll try my best to use small words since you clearly are having some trouble

if you're town you've played like shit all game. your pushes don't make sense, your arguments are almost always fundamentally flawed, and what essentially amounts to a typo doesn't mean i don't have a grasp of who i did my night action on. you're trying so hard to make me look stupid that you're actually making everyone else in the game stupider because you're just giving everyone fucking brain damage

[osuka]

1385 builds on my own points so well that i really don't think there's anything that could convince me that osuka isn't scum here. i still kind of want to wait for him to get back in here for a last hurrah, but his "re-evaluation" is more than likely just an attempt to buy himself the time to figure out if there's any scenario in which he isn't absolutely fucked

ive been absolutely fucked since the beginning of the game because you just sort of assumed i was scum from like page 5

that being said i made a stupid mistake with the hem/lemons brain fart on the post where i put out the night action and like three of you decided it was a scumslip in the same way that happened yesterday (how the turntables turn), except that right now you're saying that _that_ was weird but hey this totally isn't. there's scum motivation behind my wagon and you need to look into that because i guarantee there's at least one scum trying hard to get rid of me

[osuka]

i'm at e-1 by the way since t3 voted and didn't announce that

i assume the "3" in the nickname is the number of brain cells he's using to play this game

[geraintm]

Quickly popping in before bed.
Osaku, you make it really easy for people to vote for you. I'm not sure how aware you come off, but you don't let people want to ever give you the benefit of the doubt (at least in this game).

This isn't me defending or attacking your slot, and I don't think I've played with you before, just an observation

[geraintm]

@ insidious lemons

Don't have time to go into my post properly, but I don't think I actually attacked too many peoples votes, certainly not in the way I normally do.
As I said, I didn't find bugspray obviously scummy yesterday, but their wagon got going pretty unchallenged. I looked at the posts of people who voted for them, and they were mostly of the type "not much else is going on...gonna vote here".
If the wagon had flipped green, they would have stunk. But it flipped red.

You are right about the weirdness of my looking like I was going to say more than one person was suspicious. As I went to write that section I thought my summary had highlighted two people, but I wrote it realised it was only kne but never went back and changed the intro to the section

[osuka]

Quickly popping in before bed.
Osaku, you make it really easy for people to vote for you. I'm not sure how aware you come off, but you don't let people want to ever give you the benefit of the doubt (at least in this game).

This isn't me defending or attacking your slot, and I don't think I've played with you before, just an observation

oh yeah i know i frequently get lynched because people decide they dont like me

[Ivyeo]

@Geratin thoughts on my explaination of the vote?

[InsidiousLemons]

re: 1410, the only point i stand by is that bugspray was trying to distance himself from you. so your defense against the suggestion that bugspray's distancing was your idea, while valid, is responding to a viewpoint that i no longer hold. there is one part of this post that i want to respond to though:

if i knew bugspray was scum and at risk of being lynched, why would i not hop on the dunnstral wagon to avoid a bugspray flip? why has nobody pointed that out? isn't that a strong associative?

let's make a timeline of your posts and see if this makes any sense

i much prefer hem over dunnstral, but i'll settle for dunn if there's no other viable wagon

you said this^ when dunnstral was at E-3

Dunn we all want to lynch you. I've counted. You'll be eliminated. I think it's better to claim now and leave some time for discussing your flip.

then monkey reiterated what you already knew, which was that dunnstral was the consensus for a lim

@lemons i still strongly prefer hem but i can settle for either dunn or ivy in no order of preference between the last two

then

you restated your support for a dunnstral elimination

if we didn't go for hem (worth noting that voicing secondary support for a likely wagon while leaving your vote on an unlikely one is a scum tactic)

then there's some conversation about hem's "scumslip" which i've cut out because it isn't relevant

i regret to inform everyone that i am heading to the bars so i'm not going to be sober for very long

just get on the wagon please VOTE: humaneatingmonkey

and then you poofed after this post, when it was looking pretty likely that dunnstral would be the lim.

so given that you voiced your support for a dunnstral elim multiple times, knew that dunn had enough votes to be eliminated, and saw that the general opinion was beginning to shift away from bugspray and in the direction of dunnstral... no. i don't think this is a strong associative, and i don't believe scum!you has any motivation (and, in fact, negative motivation) to throw yourself on the wagon when you could just as easily disappear from the thread with relative confidence that your partner would not be eliminated. sure, i guess you

could've

voted for dunnstral for extra safety, but that puts blood on your hands that scum!you would want to avoid. i don't really think you believe what you're saying here.