mini normal 2226; who won
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Gamma and chaos both got results, so not them.
Koba has been cleared, and would not have been the night kill, so not him.
I would not have been surprised if you had jailed me after the lolhammer, but I doubt the scum team ever targets me after the lolhammer, and a kill stopped. So not me.
So : dats again, math, Ari, nm are the options imo.
Dats could have been the kill target again, trying to put smart you protecting one of the investigatives (and failing)
I really think nm is town, but also never getting shot. So taking him off again.
So my guess is either Ari or math.
Gth, it's math. Final answer-
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watIn post 2827, Titus wrote:
Datisi's conftown so he doesn't to.In post 2796, MathBlade wrote:And Datisi too. Don’t think he has claimed.
Now here's the surprise...
I blocked....
Spoiler: result
deliberately.-
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That last line requires us to assume that is the reason for the delay, and I don't really think that is a safe assumption...In post 2847, Aristeia wrote:not killing at 9 is giving the town an extra elimination - it's really not a great thing to do if you're scum trying toset someone upbecause your max gain if it works is just to get you back to where you should've been in the first place on the kill cycle.
also I don't think a deliberate no kill by choice would've had moderator extending night deadline by a whole day-
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What part of this logic points to chaos over gamma?In post 2873, Titus wrote:This no kill, to me, suggests that scum thought I would block them. This would clear them. They then claim a useless result.
That leads me to Chaos being scum.
That's not the most palatable theory as Chaos faking a guilty makes no sense.
The next option is scum guessed I would block offensively. If that's the case, why not shoot Gamma or Chaos?
Chaos's result from last night was an inno on Gamma
Gamma's result was an inno on koba-
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I believe that no one has claimed a role that would have gun that has not been verified yet at this point (although we still need a NM claim)
Chaos has claimed to have found the single mafia with a gun, and has verified the only town role that would have a gun, his role is now functionally useless. If he is town, then he cannot give us any info on any other slot in the game.
So, I feel like balance wise, it would not actually be all that strong as you seem to think math. He can gets results on 2 out of 13 players, and even both of those give slightly inconclusive results.-
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All "no gun results" are in conclusive, because 2 scum does not have a gun. So a "no gun" basically means nothing.In post 2884, Lukewarm wrote:I believe that no one has claimed a role that would have gun that has not been verified yet at this point (although we still need a NM claim)
Chaos has claimed to have found the single mafia with a gun, and has verified the only town role that would have a gun, his role is now functionally useless. If he is town, then he cannot give us any info on any other slot in the game.
So, I feel like balance wise, it would not actually be all that strong as you seem to think math. He can gets results on 2 out of 13 players, and even both of those give slightly inconclusive results.
the 2 "have a gun" result are also inconclusive, because one is town and 1 is scum.
The fact that he managed to find both players in 3 days is actually pretty impressive if true, and I feel like if you run models (which you said you did, ngl, I am not taking the time to do so), most games this ability would actually be pretty useless, or possibly even detrimental if he finds the role cop first.-
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Wait. Are you starting your models now, after the normally almost useless role just happened to muddle out a guilty night 1 AND after the jailkeeper landed a save AND after the scum team apparently chose to no kill?
Because, yeah. All of those things before you start looking at the win chances, should push the win in towns favor.-
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Again, you are targeting the skills in a way that is useful.In post 2892, MathBlade wrote:
Cool again assume all townIn post 2890, Lukewarm wrote:
All "no gun results" are in conclusive, because 2 scum does not have a gun. So a "no gun" basically means nothing.In post 2884, Lukewarm wrote:I believe that no one has claimed a role that would have gun that has not been verified yet at this point (although we still need a NM claim)
Chaos has claimed to have found the single mafia with a gun, and has verified the only town role that would have a gun, his role is now functionally useless. If he is town, then he cannot give us any info on any other slot in the game.
So, I feel like balance wise, it would not actually be all that strong as you seem to think math. He can gets results on 2 out of 13 players, and even both of those give slightly inconclusive results.
the 2 "have a gun" result are also inconclusive, because one is town and 1 is scum.
The fact that he managed to find both players in 3 days is actually pretty impressive if true, and I feel like if you run models (which you said you did, ngl, I am not taking the time to do so), most games this ability would actually be pretty useless, or possibly even detrimental if he finds the role cop first.
Chaos checks Gamma votes Gamma. Gamma claims rolecop who checked Umlaut no result. Titus backs up Gamma. You get three conf town
Assume Titus doesn’t block Umlaut lock scum Gamma outs it.
Assume Gamma checks town.
Gamma outs the vanilla ans the vanilla is locktown
No matter how you slice it you get confirms.
Imagine chaos targeted anyone with no gun. He has no information from that result
Imagine titus targeted someone, and the kill went through. Did she target scum, and because it is loyal nothing happened? did she target town, but not the target of the night kill? who knows?-
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Chaos's claimed role is super weak in my opinion. It has 1 player in the entire game it can inno, and 1 player in the entire game that it can guilty. And then 10 players that it gives a "fuck if I know" result.
It feels weird that I am somewhat doubtful of the claim because of how shitty it is, and also the fact that it still managed to land on both its inno and its guilty already, to then see you sitting there arguing that it is doubtful because the town is too powerful
Maybe I am just dense (and I am still not gonna take the time to run models lol)-
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I am waffling between joining Math on the chaos wagon, or just voting math atmIn post 2953, Titus wrote:
Then who do you want to kill?In post 2947, Lukewarm wrote:I don't really want to kill nm. The umlaut flubber stuff at the very beginning of the game is just so hard to see them as partners.-
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That would be strictly a poe solve for me. I town read ari like the entire gameIn post 2966, DkKoba wrote:
since you're sitting in poe - how do you feel about ari/math scum team?In post 2963, Lukewarm wrote:Chaos's claimed role is super weak in my opinion. It has 1 player in the entire game it can inno, and 1 player in the entire game that it can guilty. And then 10 players that it gives a "fuck if I know" result.
It feels weird that I am somewhat doubtful of the claim because of how shitty it is, and also the fact that it still managed to land on both its inno and its guilty already, to then see you sitting there arguing that it is doubtful because the town is too powerful
Maybe I am just dense (and I am still not gonna take the time to run models lol)-
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I think that the titus theory is that the nokill was to actually chaos hoping to get a false inno on himself?In post 2990, Aristeia wrote:if you're town why can't you just be wrong and NM forgot to put in his kill order at night?
who do you think would decide to "nokill" to frame cowman?
Which has nothing to do with our resident miltank-
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Did not even think about the multitask thing.In post 3000, Titus wrote:
Yes.In post 2995, Lukewarm wrote:
I think that the titus theory is that the nokill was to actually chaos hoping to get a false inno on himself?In post 2990, Aristeia wrote:if you're town why can't you just be wrong and NM forgot to put in his kill order at night?
who do you think would decide to "nokill" to frame cowman?
Which has nothing to do with our resident miltank
Scum cannot multitask either. So the no kill could come from needing to use their PR.
That suggests Gamma but Gamma can't be scum without Chaos sooo
Both chaos and gamma said they would have results today, so if it is 1 scum + 1 traitor at this point, they would have to no kill to get a result
Why are we so sure that this game has a traitor again? I thought it was originally so there was room for a town neighbor, but no one claimed town neighbor, so couldn't there just still be 3 group scum?-
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I don't know how that role works. Do you have results?In post 3083, Datisi wrote:
yeah. 2912 wasn't too off the mark. i'm a traffic analyst.In post 3080, Lukewarm wrote:Dats, are you claiming a PR?-
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Why did you holster night 2?In post 3118, Gamma Emerald wrote:atp I think I need to fullclaim in order to ensure the setup spec goes right, I'm really just 2 shot vs. odd night-
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I, kinda felt the same way :/In post 3152, Gamma Emerald wrote:ngl part of me thinks NM is telling the truth-
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VOTE: chaos
Traffic analysts make more sense to me then a gunsmith, given then set up info.
And, I have been scum reading chaos all game, and only tabled it because of the claim, and now there are too many claims.
And, like math said, even a town flip would confirm a lot of people
Plus his ability is functionally useless, so we are not actually losing a functioning pr this way.-
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I am unsure I follow.In post 3187, Titus wrote:Part of me says we leave NM alive, and have it known I am not blocking him. Scum don't have a blocker. We force him to check Ari or Luke, whichever we don't eliminate.
If we flip town or traitor then
If NM gets an inno result, we eliminate him to confirm his target isn't main scum.If NM gets a guilty, we get a 1 v 1.
If we eliminate main scum, we go back to him being useless and sort out the PR noise.
If we are in a maf doc + maf neighbor + traito neighbor, then wouldn't all results from nm and dats be useless.
If he gets a guilty, then yeah, that theory is wrong, and we just have 3 group scum, but I am not sure where you are headed if he gets an inno?-
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This is basically the thought process behind my vote.In post 3196, Datisi wrote:i think i'm definitely not buying all 5 prs against a scumteam like the one that would have to be real if all of us are telling the truth.
i'm town, gamma cannot be scum without omega anyway, and titus would (1) have to be a blocker (which itself would make omega +++scum since according to him, the last remaining scum doesn't have a gun so what the fuck is scum!titus in town!omega world) and (2) she's literally throwing by those night actions if scum.
i think the play here is yeet one of n_m/omega, then yeet the other one if the first one is green. thoughts?
And between the 2, chaos seems more likely to be scum then nm-
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Math, did you ever explain what this secret premise was?In post 1296, MathBlade wrote:That reads one of two things neither of which are protown to share yet. Regardless I think a scum in Chaos, Datisi, Gamma, and Titus is quite high regardless of which explanation I go down.
Premise A: (Secret premise)
If Premise A is true then scum likely think Premise A is true and therefore would vote Umlaut.
If Premise A is not true then scum likely think they may get a free elim by hopping on without discussion like everyone else.-
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Math these last few pages feels like scum who is mad at a townsided set up, and then felt like he was in auto lose and is madly trying to widen the elim pool - see his interactions with Dats.
So I think that the team is either Math-Not_Mafia Or Chaos-Koba
Koba is never shot before chaos, so I am down for any of [math, Not_Mafia, chaos]
Titus, I would like to kill chaos, because he was been my top scum read all game x.x
But, if you would prefer one of the others, you can count yourself as a double voter with my vote-
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What made you think that dats was a pt pr?In post 3332, MathBlade wrote:
Fixed it for you.In post 3331, Datisi wrote:
???In post 3329, MathBlade wrote:Correct. Not Mafia cannot fire on the same night as everyone else so the odds of an unmitigated guilty become a lot less.
loyal jailkeeper + informed gunsmith + 2-shot rolecop + n1 firing traffic analyst = overpowered town
loyal jailkeeper + informed gunsmith + 2-shot rolecop + even-night traffic analyst = fair and balanced?
I have known you were going to claim PT related role for a long time. Just because I don’t say it doesn’t mean I don’t factor it into my decision
And what made you think that he was not something like, even night, which would have made it the same as the bottom row?-
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I am pretty sure that the proposed plan was "kill you, if you are town kill the poe (which includes me)"In post 3352, ChaosOmega wrote:Unless there's 3 scum left (which would be absurd), we wouldn't be in danger of losing with 2 mislims, so you'd get the conf towns from me dying still. And if I'm limmed first, you're still limming in the PoE next, this is just flipping the order. But I've thought Luke is scum since day 1, I'd like to at least have a chance to lim another scum before I'm limmed for your not actually auto autowin.
So, I actually think on a town you flip, I die immediately after anyways?
So, from my pov, this just looks like trying to sneak in an extra miselim before you die, and we change our thinking on the whole situation-
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That is your plan. Not Math'sIn post 3357, Datisi wrote:
actually no, on a town!chaos flip we're yeeting n_m because i do not believe in 5 power roles hereIn post 3356, Lukewarm wrote:So, I actually think on a town you flip, I die immediately after anyways?
i am going to look extremely stupid if then they both flip green, but if the setup was designed to have the power roles murdering each other, then there's not much we can do
And Chaos was engaging with math, and asking if math's plan would still work flipping me first.-
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I don't really include what would happen if I would flip scum in my "from my pov" analysis lolIn post 3358, ChaosOmega wrote:I'm settled as the lim for today it looks like. If you flip scum, that means that if you think I'm scum,-
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I see what you are saying, but Mastina has definitely approved 5 prs in a 13 player set up before. And I am talkingIn post 3357, Datisi wrote:
actually no, on a town!chaos flip we're yeeting n_m because i do not believe in 5 power roles hereIn post 3356, Lukewarm wrote:So, I actually think on a town you flip, I die immediately after anyways?
i am going to look extremely stupid if then they both flip green, but if the setup was designed to have the power roles murdering each other, then there's not much we can do
Which...............
And then in the post game, she said that having 5 prs instead of 4 was BETTER FOR THE SCUM TEAM... specifically because having 5 prs meant that town was more likely to doubt them
In post 5528, mastina wrote:This game could probably have lost the odd-night vanilla cop, but ironically I feel like that'd have made the game MORE townsided, by virtue of "town needs all of these PRs to be real, or else the game's scumsided". (3-4 power roles is the standard, so having exactly 4 would mean it'd be unlikely any would be doubted.)-
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Favorite line of the gameIn post 3417, Not_Mafia wrote: Math is just posting the ramblings of a madman, looks like something someone would write on the walls of a dungeon in their own blood-
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Damn, and you sete up for this and everything by asking who you were missing :/In post 3422, Not_Mafia wrote:I don't know what to say about you to be honest, sorry Luke-
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In post 3105, Not_Mafia wrote:Datisi, is your claim real?In post 3134, Not_Mafia wrote:
You're a full, ungated Traffic Analyst?In post 3130, Datisi wrote:@n_mIn post 3106, Datisi wrote:and yes, i'm not gambiting for shits. ask koba what happened last time i did that.
No?In post 3433, MathBlade wrote:
Interesting. Do you think I am bussing Chaos?In post 3432, Lukewarm wrote:I think that my elim priority atm is : Chaos>Math>Not_Mafia
That was my elim preference for the day. Not like, we just keep going for the next 3 days-
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Datisi has dropped a crumb. Something to do with a T?In post 3475, Datisi wrote:loyal jk + ta + even-night ta could maybe work if all 3 scum are goons but it's such a meme setup i don't think it's aThing
i wanted to say "what if it's some meme solve like ari/luke" but i don't think luke goes like "uhm datisi look all 5 power roles could be town" if he was scum and none of the power roles could be town
Could he be claiming Tracker here?
/s-
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In post 3105, Not_Mafia wrote:Datisi, is your claim real?
Like, this looks like the build up of him being surprised to see dats claim to meIn post 3134, Not_Mafia wrote:
You're a full, ungated Traffic Analyst?In post 3130, Datisi wrote:@n_mIn post 3106, Datisi wrote:and yes, i'm not gambiting for shits. ask koba what happened last time i did that.-
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