Mini Normal 2275: Roguelikes - Day 3: Endgame!

[Confidently Wrong]

I lost a game due to myself and other townies being too eager to kill someone before they spoke and they flipped cop and had a guilty on the last mafia who ended up.somehow winning.
So excuse me if i go through the motions of actually ensuring if this is a sensible option at all.

[Confidently Wrong]

For reference it was similar to this game in the sense we killed 3 scum quickly early.

[Confidently Wrong]

Its a nice weekend. Go outside. Do something fun. Or whatever.

[Confidently Wrong]

the fact ur calling irrel scum is just testament to how wrong yoir methodology is here.

And why is lowell a townlock?

[Confidently Wrong]

If you shoot irrel over lowell im going to fucking resent that a lot.

[Confidently Wrong]

But now we see the final 3 - irrel lowell eira

Jk eira vigs irrel after missing on bbt in final 5

[Confidently Wrong]

Its honestly fucking insultint that you vote kenny while calling me near confirmed scum while im literally asking to not kill kenny here like seriously what the fuck is my path to win here if im begging people not to vote a slot who cannot be partnered with me !!! Btw!!!!

Also i thought of something else as to why it is an extemely stupid theory why im scum- the fucking fact that shoshin was pushing me on d1 (in an extemely unpartnered way, but some people choose to be blind to facts) WHY does shoshin lead kill n1? Explain that. That is perhaps the dumbest thing imaginable. Your theory revolves around a team of me shoshin loftwing sending out shoshin.
Afraid of roleblock? Send out me obvioisly, I'm never afraid of invests. (also lol at trying to twist a reason why i kill csf n1. I always lead kills when im scum. The fact csf died was fucking stupid from my point of view. )

But also remember - loftwing flipped *informed* so a reason could very well be that there is a roleblocker and kenny is the roleblocker so frankly it is against my best interests as scum to push back against this so hard.

But people will still call me scum.for all this because its easier to believe the person you want to.be scum will.flip scum rather than think critically about the points they raise.

[Confidently Wrong]

Vote me over kenny if youre going to vote someone rn. Im not letting kenny slot go over without speaking.
VOTE: confidently wrong
Go right fucking ahead i know you want to so bad.

[Confidently Wrong]

That much was clear all game

[Confidently Wrong]

Why is it that the people that actually experience my scumgame (which is actually ironically better than what my play is thus far here if i were scum) read me better than the people who havent lmao

I feel like thats just so fuckin backwards but whatever.

[Confidently Wrong]

yeah i know that everything i say goes over your head.

[Confidently Wrong]

but anyways still havent gotten a reason at all why CSF dies on a team with me/loft/shoshin here.

[Confidently Wrong]

also actively having twice as many posts as the next highest poster is extremely town indicative for me. when im scum i can top post- but its mostly just slightly above everyone else if thats the case. but never this kind of percentage level higher. because it is difficult to continue to post as scum the way I have this game. legit if pooky was here he would be saying "rofl koba obvious town"

[Confidently Wrong]

When I'm scum i believe in this philosophy: out of sight, out of mind. Posting when people are paying attention to things that are not good for you leads to more chances to get scumread and cases to form. as town obviously i dont give 2 shits because i know im town and i can just out post it. but i subscribe to psychological tricks like abusing someone elses mental load by asking inane questions that have nothing to do with solving but appear to OR strategically not posting at times where i feel townies will start casing others.

like fuck how do i prove im town when people interpret my play the wrong way? pointing out things that are extremely towny for me and twisting it as scummy.

its fucking impossible. and no one will engage me in good faith. because egos are more important than playing the

social

deduction game.

i pray the replacements save my sanity.

[Confidently Wrong]

you're too busy 5 miles deep in the person's pocket who i am suggesting refusing to engage on a critical level.

[Confidently Wrong]

i cant prove lowell any further bc theyre intentionally being quiet about their thought process in order to make it ambiguous and lock in the fact that they were right must mean they are town. because as scum they can't answer the question properly. because they were TMIing their reads. Like I am asking people to remember that people who are mafia... know who their mafia partners are... so they are capable of positioning themselves in a way that looks good after flips happen. And lowell was trying to kill CSF. Mala. Me. And only really went ham on loftwing when the thread looked like they really wanted to kill them. and when it came to get off loftwing - and I started hardpushing a lowell wagon - the 2 flipped scum did not follow me *at all* and instead hopped onto fredrick. like come on.

[Confidently Wrong]

all 4 of myself, loftwing, shoshin, and lowell were on that fredrick wagon.

why do scum need to triple up there? if lowell is town... then why do i need to switch? the wagons were literally between lowell and fredrick... very stupid indeed, i could just farm the cred for "having the right read".

but if the counterwagon is scum... that makes it make sense why all of lowell loftwing and shoshin pile up.

[Confidently Wrong]

ok i misremembered but CSF was on lowell wagon and died n1

[Confidently Wrong]

BBT voting kenny slot, refusing to ellaborate, and dipping makes me indifferent to their fate right now.

[Confidently Wrong]

i kinda was soft on bbt because we just finished a game together where i misread them for similar kind of play + we kinda mindmelded in a way on some things.

[Confidently Wrong]

whoever between bbt/lowell is town and refusing to explain progression is hurting town a lot by missing an opportunity to clear themselves btw its like so easy to just spew reasoning if you are town that will be seen as towny.

[Confidently Wrong]

As I’m writing this I feel like I’m losing towncred by reopening the limpool slightly but let’s just call this a eureka moment and entertain my line of thinking for a sec. Have we been letting BBT hide behind the fact that his play is kinda audacious?

ur one of the most spewed townies in the game, relax.

[Confidently Wrong]

Lol it’s kind of a big deal! That loftwing considered Lowell a good enough counterwagon to vote there as self-preservation

i think i did see it but misremembered bc i explained it internally as the fact that loftwing wasnt around to switch vote, and at the time of the lowell vote, there was no other recourse, and seeing as a backup rolecop flipped - it is ok to bus the rolecop.

[Confidently Wrong]

i should probably reread it but i also have a headache and am playing Farm Together so i will do it tomorrow. or ill make the replacements do the work for me

[Confidently Wrong]

i still need 4 kills outside of me eira to win if im scum eira, bbt i literally didnt even say "push them!!" I said, basically for bbt to please start playing the game more seriosuly bc i still feel they're town and it makes it harder if they dont towntell and allow lowell to win that way.

Also i get credit for townclearing bbt i did it first

[Confidently Wrong]

People were happy to poe bbt until i spoke up about how spewed they are

[Confidently Wrong]

Poggers clear enchant and a player i can read

[Confidently Wrong]

Hello ps1 Hagrid

[Confidently Wrong]

Btw this is koba @enchant @dunn

[Confidently Wrong]

Btw dunn can u claim , ppl are thirsting to axe your slot, important to townspew yourself any way u can

[Confidently Wrong]

I am not Koba.

Dunn probably too not Koba, but not sure.

Why you lie to me.

No.. i am koba u silly half giant

[Confidently Wrong]

Because town crazy and wants to kill my townreads without even letting them claim

[Confidently Wrong]

Yes based on mafia spew

[Confidently Wrong]

the vast majority of my posts are serious posts trying to solve, if i have any shitposts in there im entitled to have a laugh.

[Confidently Wrong]

ya i feel like theres a path to victory for the person i scumread so I'm just doing a lot of work to ensure it *doesn't* work for them. and mainly builidng a towncore that is impossible to breach post my death. no one willl listen to a one off read past your death but if i thoroughly prove it i feel like it'll work.

mainly just waiting for dunn rn to have a conversation with them, hopefully clear them, etc.

[Confidently Wrong]

well actually reading the game and rereading after new info is provided tends to do that

[Confidently Wrong]

Dunn is town rofl

[Confidently Wrong]

Dunn can you disengage and read the 2 flipped scum isos, and make a reads list based on it? Basically tell me how you feel people are spewed off it. Its a nice quick way to get a look at your thoughts

[Confidently Wrong]

also i think bbt is town so kindly please dont mutually tunnel

[Confidently Wrong]

Bbt ur doing the same thing you did to me in the newbie where you got mad at me for calling you scum, i want you to see that and relax and think more critically about how dunn percieves your push here. I understand dunns pov, and i understand yours. Youre clashing because of semantical differences.

[Confidently Wrong]

Gamma also tries to hide behind Confidently Wrong's reads in one of their 2 posts

Loftwing asks Confidently Wrong why they are town

Combined this makes them seem less likely as the last mafia

Loftwing also has a bit of a spat with Eiralox that looks unaligned

the first person to actually realize the most obvious conclusion LMAO

[Confidently Wrong]

dunn, im like 99% sure eira is the town compulsive vig and its unlikely to be them. yeah yeah outting pr reads anti town whatever. i use pr reads to sort the game holistically

[Confidently Wrong]

I didn't get mad at you for calling me scum? I just didn't understand your 180.

Dunn has come in with a scum!BBT agenda and I think that's clear to see. How does not remembering I scum read a Commuter claim 4 years ago make me scum in this game? He's also compared two completely different situations as if they're the same - that's scummy.

its not scummy.. its wrong, but its not scummy. it just means theyre reaching a faulty conclusion based on a contradiction they are perceiving from their POV. to them you are contradicting yourself in a way that they think isnt town, to you there is clearly nuance between both so it is ridiculous so i understand your plight there. but the process i feel was trying to solve your slot properly and thought they had a gotcha on you.

[Confidently Wrong]

bbt really didnt have any reason to make a case on fredrick over just pushing through a lowell wagon as scum and just blaming me if it were to flip town there.

[Confidently Wrong]

in the same vein i could easily push bbt for that fredrick push and ignore that reality. i personally understand there was a mad scramble because it was so close to deadline and thats why wagons got so fucky there and stuff. if we had more time we probably didnt kill fredrick there ever.

[Confidently Wrong]

I've had a running theory that lowell was positioning himself in a way too look good by pushing scum at opportune moments but things got out of hand for him and a vig shot and a guilty derailed the distancing that wasn't meant to kill his partners there.

and in a lowell scum world, I find that the most likley that Shoshin is the one leading the kill there.

[Confidently Wrong]

In my view, Lowell was the one who played the most Informed around the scum members and actually made himself look good - while people like BBT and I, were horrendously tied to them in a way that is "too scummy to be scum" i guess you could say - that it is completely antithetical to a person who actually knows what their teammates will flip and the gamestate surrounding them.

Your slot did pin down both shoshin/loftwing early on but it felt a lot less TMIy than how Lowell did it(and kenny did also say lowell was a scumlean so GOAT if true) which is the key difference. Kenny had organic reasoning I felt while Lowell was just stating reads to state them.

[Confidently Wrong]

I guess it's notable that neither Loftwing or Shoshin vote for Lowell either, as a counter to Loftwing, except for the last votecount Loftwing has switched to Lowell for some reason instead of voting out Fredrick

You know, its incredibly refreshing to have someone actually see things I am seeing finally.

[Confidently Wrong]

the consensus PoE is townblocking lets go

[Confidently Wrong]

i think most players tend to see a PR claim and then dont want to vote that if its D1 typically unless the person is like howling scum. and thats a natural thing to do as town.

i myself missed the PR claim from fredrick due to the mad dash fwiw even though I do typically ignore mech.

[Confidently Wrong]

In my view, Lowell was the one who played the most Informed around the scum members and actually made himself look good - while people like BBT and I, were horrendously tied to them in a way that is "too scummy to be scum" i guess you could say - that it is completely antithetical to a person who actually knows what their teammates will flip and the gamestate surrounding them.

Your slot did pin down both shoshin/loftwing early on but it felt a lot less TMIy than how Lowell did it(and kenny did also say lowell was a scumlean so GOAT if true) which is the key difference. Kenny had organic reasoning I felt while Lowell was just stating reads to state them.

second paragraph was obviously addressed to dunns btw

[Confidently Wrong]

I think its a fair point to see it as a possibility that BBT was a mafia member strongarming an elimination on a possible strong town voice - but that is only 1 part of a whole of BBT's overall play this game, and even the process used to case Fredrick was something that I don't believe he would pull out as a scum. Hard to explain how but just I don't see it.

[Confidently Wrong]

In a similar vein I see how people would FoS me if they purely looked at the fact I townread both flipped mafia. Sure that's 1 way to look at it, but again that is 1 part of my play and I know I am town. And obviously both BBT and I can't be scum - so honing in on these specific things is not how to solve people. The absence of a towntell should be more indicative here if we were scum.

[Confidently Wrong]

I'll give BBT a reread but I doubt I'll change my conclusion

[Confidently Wrong]

i can see scum being informed of a joat containing a commuter, fancypants being the joat with tracker shot, commuter shot, and maybe something else

[Confidently Wrong]

if bbt is a scumworld that is

[Confidently Wrong]

please ignore my rambling btw this is how i build worlds, i make sure there is viability in what the theory demands and imagine scenarios that make sense for people's actions by guessing info I don't know.6

[Confidently Wrong]

Is there anyone openly opposing the Loftwing wagon except for myself? Lack of counter wagon should also be a concern if true.

Ah nice, shame nobody has been listening.

Fred seems like a good vote, no?

Scum can be neighbourizer, but as you say, it's usually town aligned.

I see no town reasons for hiding the rest of the claim now. Also, unless the other ability is very specific, my town read on Loft is not as strong.

Either way, can we not do Loft today? Fred or Malcolm are juicy, no? Also, Fred jumping on the Loft wagon as his name starts being spoken about as a potential elim looks fishy, no?

Sorry it's taken me so long, post on Fred incoming (interesting that Eira just mentioned scum in the shadows of town)

ah fuck me this is a lot of seeking validation

[Confidently Wrong]

but like a lot of variables .. still point to lowell

especially that csf n1 kill.

I'm strictly neutral about BBT dying rereading stuff now. If it ends the game, awesome, if it doesn't, I just get to thunderdome Lowell.

[Confidently Wrong]

cuz I see way better kills for a scum BBT who is clearly carrying here if scum. Like Malcom. Or Irrelephant. Or Fancy. I just can't see scum BBT making the CSF kill.

[Confidently Wrong]

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=89584&user_select[]=23899

reread the recent game I finished with BBT and the above string of posts is now closer to town than scum because it is present in their townplay.

[Confidently Wrong]

I think its so wild and out there that is more town indicative because you'd make up some logical reason as scum to fit in due to perceiving townplay differently.

[Confidently Wrong]

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=89584&user_select[]=23899

reread the recent game I finished with BBT and the above string of posts is now closer to town than scum because it is present in their townplay.

I think the link is broken

links to the right game, just doesnt link to BBT ISO

[Confidently Wrong]

I think I'm at a point where I'd need BBT to defend themselves regarding this point fwiw as I'm leaning town but neutral on defending their elimination if that makes sense based on a few points.

[Confidently Wrong]

But its hard to get a person to argue about meta when they themselves are extremely against meta fwiw so regardless of alignment I feel that answers are going to be difficult here.

[Confidently Wrong]

Scum can be neighbourizer, but as you say, it's usually town aligned.

I see no town reasons for hiding the rest of the claim now. Also, unless the other ability is very specific, my town read on Loft is not as strong.

Either way, can we not do Loft today? Fred or Malcolm are juicy, no? Also, Fred jumping on the Loft wagon as his name starts being spoken about as a potential elim looks fishy, no?

this is exactly what they said and like the thing is i strongly see viability as a town thought process - i can see where the gears are turning basically. it doesnt feel made up, it feels organic.

and BBT specifically remembered this point in their last post before they left and were right.

[Confidently Wrong]

I do agree that objectively that BBT cannot be ranked higher on a Most Towny to Least towny list than most other players - but he is above the Bar if you get what i mean. Funnily enough that bar literally has 1 person below it and its still Lowell.

[Confidently Wrong]

I guess it's a good time to post where I'm at wrt sorting people from towniest to not towny:

Enchant(fancypants)
Irrelephant
Eiralox
MalcomTucker
Dunnstral
BlueBloodedToffee
___
Lowell

[Confidently Wrong]

I believe that people will generally agree with the top portion but may put the person in the bottom portion somewhere above Dunn. My goal this dayphase has been to at least keep them in the bottom 4 because that is the number of shots we have left and to possibly move at least 1 person in the bottom 3 above them to ensure no shenanigans.

[Confidently Wrong]

meme post but if you sort by postcount Lowell is between Shoshin and Loftwing.. confirmed scum 100%!

[Confidently Wrong]

Anyway so who we killing here. Anyone but me.

If you vote CW, I'll do my best to protect you.

Why is CW town, Cat?

CW could be scum trying to power a miselim through. I think loftwing is a pretty good flip

We should consider making a flip happen sooner rather than later because this weekend is a holiday weekend for everyone in the US and we have about 2.5 days left in this game day, during which the American players might barely post (e.g. me, I'll be hanging with family)

I agree with this, especially as one of the folks who will be more out than in this weekend. And the way the loftwing wagon just seems to be floating there with no one wanting to hammer makes me feel good about it. The last vote is always the hardest--come on folks, someone be a hero.

@eira, loft/kenny/CW would be a hilariously clumsy scumteam so I doubt it. But loft with one of those two seems possible, with the third person being the duped town player along for the ride.

also the thing about hammering was completely misrepresenting the current votecount as loft was nowhere near E-1 at the time. Thus possibly trying to misrepresent the level that Lowell pushed loftwing to make it seem like it was stronger than it actually was.


It is when you look at how Lowell has treated people who were confirmed town where you start to see the scumminess - where Lowell accusses CSF of "panicking" when it is completely false. Lowell has lied out his ass multiple times this game and is getting a pass for it. It is an effective scum strategy I myself employ - but it is just something i feel is like very overlooked when analyzing the Lowell slot in favor of people getting caught up in semantics like BBT.

Here is the post about Cats:

@cw that just isn’t right. “Good” players tend to survive regardless of alignment, it’s the reason I go on feel and atmospherics more than by who can craft the most thoughtful case. Cats panicked when he thought he was caught for a dumb reason, and has spent the next 20 pages lurking or sniping at low hanging fruit. That’s more meaningful to me than “oh this idiot has bad opinions”

It is completely untrue about Cats' play so far. I challenge Lowell to point out these posts he thought Cats was panicking in, because I called bullshit on it then and found it scummy and I still call bullshit on this being genuine.


Like I see this line connecting to Shoshin and Lowell planning to make CSF and myself a mislim - and then having to kill CSF who ended up having to be a kill due to them becoming townread by other towns.

[Confidently Wrong]

There are parallels you can draw based on what flips we know to Lowell and the flipped scum based on what we can judge is the scum agenda at the time. Such as tying myself to Loftwing, etc.

[Confidently Wrong]

And now that Dunns has shown themselves to be townspewed as I was expecting: VOTE: Lowell

[Confidently Wrong]

I think that even though I was misclearing scum, mafia were actively frustrated that I was protecting people they thought they could miseliminate. Such as Mala and CSF, and going after people they believed were unflippable such as Eira, as well as being honed in at least on a scum, which was Lowell, which explains the friction of day 1 where people were bouncing between 2 parts of the whole solve.

[Confidently Wrong]

Fredrick A Campbell's Seventh Unofficial Votecount
Continued from The Moderator, Kitty Tacky's Votecount 1.3

Note: Votes without "vote:" were not counted to ease votecounting

Loftwing

(5): FancyPants, Lowell, MalcolmTucker, Eiralox, Irrelephant11, Shoshin

[E-1]

Lowell

(3): Cat Scratch Fever, Fredrick A Campbell, Confidently Wrong

Eiralox

(2): Loftwing, kennyk

BlueBloodedTofee

(1): Malakittens

Fredrick A Campbell

(1): BlueBloodedToffee

kennyk

(0):

Malakittens

(0):

Confidently Wrong

(0):

Not Voting

(0):

Not Voting (0):
With 13 in the jury, it takes 7 to find guilty of conspiracy to murder.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-07-04 11:14:00).

Loftwing was actually at E-2 at the time of the shoshin vote btw.

I am wondering if the plan was for shoshin to vote, and loftwing fake pretends to be hammered to "clear" himself. Guess we won't know until postgame.

[Confidently Wrong]

I mean at the time of the Lowell post where he claims that Loft is at e-1*

[Confidently Wrong]

Hammering Loftwing there makes Shoshin + Lowell look good and then you can chain elim CSF, Fred, and myself fairly easily. Kennyk too possibly. After fred flips town you get BBT. It's a super nice cozy bus there. And the way scum treated the people unvoting Loft was super awkward. Scum were clearly committing to letting Loft go over as Shoshin voted loft to be E-1.

[Confidently Wrong]

I'm going to look extremely stupid if it isn't lowell but I just... can't find anything that implies Lowell is town that isn't an argument purely saying "lowell voted right" which isn't a good argument when scum know the right answers to make themselves look good. Lowell just fits the profile of a player who is informed and knows what will make them look good and what might make a town player look bad.

Hammering loftwing there makes lowell look incredibly good. That's a huge incentive to let a wagon on your scummate go through.

Dunno! just Feel like the battle between loftwing wagon and lowell wagon was just enough to force scum to do weird bus stuff.

[Confidently Wrong]

Like keep in mind - the point of view of scum is that things are bleaker than they actually are when townies are converging on you. It seems like you need to do something big when in reality townies will more often than not just reeval in a weird way sometimes(see: my fred 180) and defy expectations.

oops this was me

[Confidently Wrong]

So are we talking ourselves out of a winning move here or what? Are we still looking for reasons not to vote whoever replaced Kenny?

Yes we are actually because Dunns towntold. Sorry, replacements suck, but the time for accountability for your prior takes in this game is fast approaching

[Confidently Wrong]

Wolfy response

[Confidently Wrong]

shouldn't have n1'd CSF btw

[Confidently Wrong]

lowell show a shred of critical thought process challenge [impossible][failed]

[Confidently Wrong]

lowell is afraid to directly engage the gamestate bc they are extremely frozen scum btw thats why they keep quipping at me with sarcastic remarks beacuse to acknowledge my points at all by doing anything but waving it away by saying "i was right on scum" means exposing a fake thought process. It means having to expose the fact that their pushes on people who are town are extremely fake.

Like its just hilarious how badly Lowell wants to completely ignore what Dunns has said because as scum, they NEED this flip to go through or they lose, so that then vig can kill me and they can try to have control back and kill maybe BBT and then somehow kill someone else in final 3 or hope eira mishshoots again.

[Confidently Wrong]

The only time Lowell decides to engage the direct gamestate on day 2 for instance is to collect towncred on gamma lim and defend themselves from me saying they are tied to gamma. I will quote all of lowell's posts this dayphase to show how Lowell is literally unable to directly interact, while every other player has been able to.

[Confidently Wrong]

@CW you got me. Scum plan was a Lowell double-bus. *chef's kiss* Stop tunneling bro.

See i would self vote here but i know that no one will listen to me abojt lowell so i want to thunderdome lowell here and now and no one contribute arguments for lowell. Let him make his case. I will SHOW YOU he is scum.

Honestly dude I'm not "making a case" for me being town, that's not how it works. And I've never been more right about a mafia game than this one. Besides, my "case" is that I was right about loftwing and pushed him even after others (you) were saying "oh nothing to see here, great claim!", then joined the push on gamma while others (you, again) were like "weeeelllll, let's give him more time I'm not so sure what about LOWELL???" And I've already heard your awesome response of "WIFOM DOUBLEBUS THATS WHAT YOU WANT US TO THINK OMG" enough that I don't care to hear it again.

VOTE: kenny. It's him or CW and I'm tired of arguing with CW.

I’m remembering why I quit this site for 5 years.

Just vote me, CW. I’m saying nothing more to you.

Checking in, mostly out this weekend. Still Kenny or CW for me, with fancy as unmovable town and irrel and eira not far behind.

So are we talking ourselves out of a winning move here or what? Are we still looking for reasons not to vote whoever replaced Kenny?

It’s getting harder and harder to play to my wincon. Can we finish this already?

Nah your case is boring and dumb and I’ve been kicking ass and taking names so I’ll pass.

Let’s just vote. Scum need three misses right? I’m good with calling fancy, eira, and irrel town and going from there.

We've had a *pleathora* of discussion, a lot of which lowell has acknowledged exists and has read due to the self defense. these are all of lowell's posts this dayphase. not a single post engaging the game or trying to solve. just trying to blindly follow this PoE that he has made to quickly kill townies.

[Confidently Wrong]

I do notice there is a severe lack of Malcom being mentioned which leads me to believe that in the scenario where Lowell got what he wanted, after killing Kenny/Dunn, Me, and BBT, he intends to push on Malcom for the final kill and ride off the fact people are clearing him for hellbussing his partner.

[Confidently Wrong]

My initial D2 thoughts based on what I can remember:

Towns: Irrel, Fancy, Kenny
Nulls: BBT, Malcolm, Eira
Scums: Gamma, Mala, CW

wow would u look at that

huh.. i wonder how kenny managed to go to the bottom. surely it cant be because mala the miskill ended up flipping earlier than expected and the thread's interest in killing kenny wasnt a factor.

[Confidently Wrong]

I know you can't provide what I want to find you town because I do not believe that you are town. It's that simple. And my vote has been parked on your slot for a good portion of the game as it is right now.

[Confidently Wrong]

Lowell.... I mean i admit i'm not best gutreader but I have many reasons to be against that flip. I'll go into a Lowell ISO after CW if that is required, i dont really want to but rn im feeling strongly enough to defend there. I mean yeah it's a low effort low info slot but i still have my reasons. Mala was even lower effort and lower info and look where that kill got us after i hinted they're VT?

Your whole case against me is that I pushed 2 scum as town incorrectly without considering motivations.
If you were to think beyond that you'd see I am similarly treating townread the same still here.

[Confidently Wrong]

If Lowell gets eliminated and flips green you’re getting bogged, you know that right CW?

Good thing scum cant flip town.

[Confidently Wrong]

Eira your scumreads are dogshit bc you miscleared scum just like how I had dogshit scumreads outside of lowell bc i miscleared loft and shoshin

Also the game ended yesterday and I can claim part of why i townread shoshin was bc he flaked a game he randed scum in with me and was very timid in scum PT before he did so(terminator mafia) and i thought the confident shoshin was extremely towny.

[Confidently Wrong]

It was a way to extort a read out of CW, which reflects bad on anyone not wishing to do the same on someone else.

?

It was a way to extort a read out of CW, which reflects bad on anyone not wishing to do the same on someone else.

This assumes I'm not making a push to get a better read on BBT.

Were you making a push on BBT to get a read on them?

Now that you mention it, kenny hasn't said anything of substance despite saying many things.

VOTE: kennyk

quick hop onto kenny. would scum be pointing attention their partner's lack of substance?

UNVOTE: Kennyk

I like their recent posting, it feels a lot better than before.

Quick unhop. Might be off partner, might be to show hey loft is actively forming reads, and might be to later set up kenny.

Why are people voting Lowell? I don't see them being scum here. They haven't left much to be desired.

This defense of Lowell... might be Loft setting themselves up as town, if Lowell wagon gets a flip can say "Hey look they were town" while CW, as the main to push later on Lowell, does creates distance between scum partners.

A classic tactic for less experienced mafia is to try to mimic towniness by trying to loudly proclaim how unsure they are of people's alignments to LAMIST their way into seeming uninformed

Do you think this does not equally apply to me? If not, why not?

I think this is the other interaction besides Loftwing asking cw why they're town? This can be Loft asking town CW to confirm Loft further, or can be scum tactic to create distance while still having the facade of suspecting one another.

Before I jump ships again, this time from Mala to Eiralox, let me backread them.

Ok, so Loft comes back, CW has launched Eira wagon with flying colors. Loft says yeah imma vote Eira but let me get some reasons first, suggesting loft knew in scum chat that eira was the target.

Can I specifically get clarity from Kenny and Loftwing, exactly what they think of Eira and why, I know Loftwing gave reasoning when he voted, but can you clarify why her behaviour is scummy in your eyes.
Please don't say you have no opinion.

@Loftwing, nice Hamilton reference.

My reasoning for voting Eira is that they see CW, someone who they have fought and who they have said they think worsely of, and Kenny, who they have stated a greenlighting towards, are both equal in terms of scum equity, as that is what null means.

In other words, despite saying that they like Kenny and hate CW, they still say that they are equal and are both null.

here is the first mention of CW/Kenny in relation to my reads. Basically, I hate CW, like kenny, so why both null(both were null to me at the time iirc, with cw a bit more likely? Felt green on kenny for a bit early D1.

Anyway, this attack on me can very much be farmed as a soft defense of CW, or kenny maybe but i'm starting to move away from that.

Whoooopy ride man wtf is going on here. Ive felt better about kenny. Cw I wanted to expand. Theyve been one sentencing this game. Loftwing is my prob vote target atm. Ill go through what they did then come back with conclusion.

What I am saying is this:

Kenny is good to you. They are what you have considered to be greenlit.

CW is bad to you. They are what you have considered to be "worse and worse".

They are both null to you.

So, one would conclude that Kenny =/= CW for the first and second statements, but then would conclude that Kenny = CW at the third, which is a contradiction.

You both imply they are different yet state they are the same. Which is it, my good, honorable, and reasonable man?

So yeah I'm feeling it more here. Very close attention is paid to my reads of CW, what little i've said about kenny at this pouint is also taken very seriously. My other null reads and scumleans and whatever don't seem to be taken into account here, the cw/kenny focus is key.

Why are null reads scummy?

They aren't inherently scummy, even holding a royal estate of all 12 at once (of which I am now slightly kess sure of), but what troubles me is that they both equare Kenny and CW this way as null, yet also divide them in twain with Kenny being better than CW.

They are both different, and yet also the same.

Again, third time here. Loftwing seems bothered that I place Kenny above CW, maybe scum want an easy Kenny elim later on?

Why did Kenny saying “actually I wasn’t trying to offer you any reads in that early game longpost” satisfy you that he is town? The fact remained that he had written a bunch of words without advancing the game at all

Why does Eiralox’s confusing use of the word “null” still make him the scummiest player in your eyes? It seems like you’re choosing to be obtuse there as an excuse to keep a scumread, he’s obviously got reads and just doesn’t like to call them reads for some weird reason

Kenny clarified what his earlier post actually meant, becsuse we the people misinterpreted it. In light of his clarification, the post made more sense, so my objection was addressed.

Eiralox does have players outside of his nullbin, or at least I assume that's what they meant. So why not then seperate either kenny or cw from the nullbin then, is my current objection.

And here for the final time mention of cw/kenny in relation to Loft's push on me. Here is a more hard defense of kenny and this can sway me to kenny slot being scum. taken into the whole though, no not yet, my flip order is still cw>kenny slot(sorry i keep forgetting the name with a C ill remem it)

What're your reads, Loft?

Town

Fredrick A Campbell
Confidently Wrong
---
Cat Scratch Fever
BlueBloodedToffee
Lowell
Irrelephant11
MalcolmTucker
Shoshin
Malakittens
---
kennyk
FancyPants
Eiralox

Scum

So here we go. After all of that, CW is second from top and Kenny is third from bottom. At this point what would loft do? Would loft put a partner at the top or at the bottom? And here, throughout this thread, Loftwing has said how good they feel about kenny, how kenny has changed their tune and is now better, but here kenny is still scum.

CW, meanwhile, has been one question from Loftwing, and one post(the one BBT mentioned) where Loft really seems to dig into CW, but still offers no hard reason for it.

I also love how half the things you quoted are things that spew me town but youre so fucking tunneled you think it magically spews me scum. You're hopeless this game and i see no way to convince you right now bc logic isnt working

[Confidently Wrong]

Loftwing saw me townread them and used that to hide behind me but no im scum with them

Town has never hard defended mafia in their life amirite. I guess that tracks with why you think lowell has to be town... you're hard defending them so.they cant be mafia!! Impossible! Would destroy your whole argument on me, if one ignores the fact that it would mean lowell scum and game over.

[Confidently Wrong]

You expected more? No you are lying now. You had your mind set. You can say you're scumreading me, but dont fucking lie to me that you were open to townread me.

[Confidently Wrong]

Your case is embarassingly filled with bias. It will look extemely clownish post game. My case on lowell is what a proper scumcase looks like that takes into account things you might see as town

[Confidently Wrong]

Also eira you're not going to convince irrel or dunns for that matrer because they both know ive towntold out my ass because i can continue to produce content which is extemely towny for me. You've never played with me before, people like Enchant and Dunns have.

[Confidently Wrong]

Eira im going to be brutally honest. you are not a player who as far as I can tell is some sort of mafia prodigy who has way better reads than other people. If you're along on your island you are probably wrong. Just like how I was wrong alone on my island on Loftwing. You won't listen to that because it's coming from your super duper confident scumread of yours but its the fucking truth lmao and its extremely frustrating to argue with you because like i mentioned before you are both confbiasing your conclusion and working backwards and also refusing to acknowledge logic that opposes your view.

[Confidently Wrong]

Good morning i slept all day

The people tunneling on loftwing need to stop when scum eira is right there.

I also am untownlocking irrelephant until they can explain where their mind went from Eira to Loftwing - I did not feel good about the last few pages and how they treated certain slots suddenly.

cw what happened that made you untownlock me

bc I was extremely tunneled on eira scum at the time and thought you were teamed with them. I thought that much was obvious from the post and the implication of it. Like.. the explaintion is in the post actually now that I reread it ... so not sure why ask me when its right there.

[Confidently Wrong]

Eira you expected me to not push Lowell and push Enchant. That is exactly what you wanted. You think that as town I will do exactly that. You are

PROJECTING

YOUR thought process onto ME. I am NOT YOU. I hate when people project onto me and it is obnoxious. We are not the same. We do not think the same. You are not going to get me to act like you when you're town. Because I dont act like you when I'm town. I act like this. This is town me. And I've been trying to get you to accept that for a while but hey.

[Confidently Wrong]

This is terrible ^

Like pulling teeth around here. Let’s all call a guy useless and scummy and do nothing.

Cool.

Unrelated: BBT is scum

Dudes loft posted 8 times in the last day and a half, listing all his suspects, what exactly you want from him? Vote him or don’t. BBT is scum, eira is probably town, I have this read in my head and can’t shake it now.

CW, can you talk about why Scum!Lowell makes these posts please?

because distancing exists and the dude is TMIing loft scum. Lowell is also the only one who has not considered anyone in the PoE as town and has tried to ignore sorting within it, I think if you try to focus on what is a hellbus strictly to clear them you are going to get nowhere. Because it was a wild move in a desperate situation that will seem wrong.

I perhaps also understand this is possible because I have pushed over a partner in similar ways for cred and distanced. So it is something I can recognize when reading back and learn to ignore until other evidence shows it is true.

The point is that I don't care that Lowell pushed scum hard. I care that the way they reached that conclusion was congruent with a town thought process and not just scum choosing to place themselves in a nice cozy position around their partner.


You can sort people best when you look at how they push people who flipped town, because pushing scum can look natural and organic the most - which is why I ask people to look at how mainly, Lowell has treated CSF


WHO PEOPLE STILL CANT EXPLAIN WHY THEY DIE IN ANY OTHER WORLD BUT LOWELL SCUM WORLD

but yeah.

[Confidently Wrong]

Eira you expected me to not push Lowell and push Enchant. That is exactly what you wanted. You think that as town I will do exactly that. You are

PROJECTING

YOUR thought process onto ME. I am NOT YOU. I hate when people project onto me and it is obnoxious. We are not the same. We do not think the same. You are not going to get me to act like you when you're town. Because I dont act like you when I'm town. I act like this. This is town me. And I've been trying to get you to accept that for a while but hey.

remember how you almost shouted at me about how i vote wrong day one? welcome to the club bub.

shrug i usually have above average accuracy on d1. confidence usually warranted, was not warranted here.

[Confidently Wrong]

Eira im going to be brutally honest. you are not a player who as far as I can tell is some sort of mafia prodigy who has way better reads than other people. If you're along on your island you are probably wrong. Just like how I was wrong alone on my island on Loftwing. You won't listen to that because it's coming from your super duper confident scumread of yours but its the fucking truth lmao and its extremely frustrating to argue with you because like i mentioned before you are both confbiasing your conclusion and working backwards and also refusing to acknowledge logic that opposes your view.

like whatever tbh appeal to authority. i'm scum hunting, plain and simple. step out of your panic room and actually approach me or stop whining about my methodology like a goblin with a stick. i'm done for now, ill build my case further and post it but i wont engage with you cos u toxic and that makes me toxic.

id rather have good vibes

And honestly even if im wrong idc. I'm pretty sure which three players scum are in, we have breathing room, so i won't she any tears for a cw mis-elim at this point unless you make some major claim, after the investigative roleclaim you made, which you then retracted. but have fun,

and make sure to remind everyone how your irrel read shifted only because toffee townread loftwing

; ) Like i'm not engage with you because there's still D2 and D3, your entire 'case' on Lowell, for me to cover.

Hav fun tho.

Ok Eira - let's lay out the logic here so I can show how ridiculous you are in assuming it is only scummy:

You townread someone really hard. like REALLY hard. They're townier than anyone else. You dont know their alignment though, theyre a scum who is fooling you at that very moment. This can be Player A.

There is a player you scumread really hard for what you believe are good reasons to scumread someone, we can call that Player B. That person is being pushed currently by another one of your townreads, lets call that person Player C. You are sure that person is town but you've never played with them before so you're not quite sure what they're capable of if scum. Let's remind the reader that none of the alignments are known to you at this time.

So Player C shifts from player B to Player A in a way that you feel was possibly with intent to dismantle a wagon on scum, and that they were just distancing and got off when it was hot.

It would then be reasonable to think that Player C is potentially mafia with Player B and not be as sure of them as town.


I hope this very simple explaination makes sense to you because I'm reaching my limit.

[Confidently Wrong]

I’ve posted why CSF would die in any scum world. General towniness and/or guessing at TPR (they were sorta right if so)

no lmao

[Confidently Wrong]

maybe im just good at reading for PRs in general so maybe im overstating my confidence of my VT read on CSF but no.

and in a town Lowell world, theres a player whos tunneling the slot. Mafia don't kill slots that are being tunneled by other townies like that unless there's good reason.

[Confidently Wrong]

Wait but his D2 is so good ahhhhhhh I’m spinning in circles make it stop

Idt it was a good Day 2? it was following the same d1 formula, push both a partner and a townie. At least from my PoV. It also had 0 logical basis to tie me to Shoshin and I questioned them why they were even considering me as paired with Shoshin. Got no response, obviously.

[Confidently Wrong]

My initial D2 thoughts based on what I can remember:

Towns: Irrel, Fancy, Kenny
Nulls: BBT, Malcolm, Eira
Scums: Gamma, Mala, CW

Nevermind I see now that was Eira, not kenny. In that case I'll join the wagon, and you can reverse kenny and eira on my previous list.

unvote, vote kenny

???

also have not gotten a single answer as to why this happened fwiw.

[Confidently Wrong]

CSF wasn’t vanilla though

oh rofl. townslip haha xD

well they were essentially vanilla so wowee

[Confidently Wrong]

I'll look to see if CSF softed because if thats the case I will drop that as part of the case and the only thing that needs to be resolved is strictly Lowell's thought process.

[Confidently Wrong]

Ok I dont see a soft on my brief skim. I do see what I remember to be a lot of doubt on Lowell's alignment primarily. And lowell immediately on D2 claimed it was some sort of frame job which (lol).

[Confidently Wrong]

I think its crazy that you assume that my scenario refers to you and not Irrelephant like jesus how full of yourself can you be, and thats me saying something.

[Confidently Wrong]

well it does refer to you. you just think you're the wrong player in the scenario. that was me explaining my thought process as if my audience was 5 years old regarding my post stating i wanted to untownlock Irrelephant.

But like considering the thought process of someone believing wrong things is hard, I get it. Only assuming the worst faith thing is super easy.

I was always on Lowell all 3 days. I have been consistent.

And now you're saying I'm on BBT. Tell me - where have I called BBT scum? I have not. I have said I am unhappy with the way they are playing and that I believe it to be pro scum. Crazy, but I think that people playing pro scum don't have to be town. I think you are currently playing pro scum after playing pro town on day 1 and 2 , so there's that.

[Confidently Wrong]

@irrelephant if you want to be a GOAT townie you need to convince eira for me because they are going to bias any argument I make as scum but since youre their top townread outside of enchant, it means nothing.

I can't fucking do this alone. The way I'm playing where I'm sticking out for people I think are town is how town should be playing. Not trying to only push scumreads and nothing else. Defend your fucking townreads or at least shut down bad arguments from townies who are tunneled. I get that was what is being perceived to be done for my Lowell push - but I think I have adequately addressed the points being pushed of them being town by investigating and finding the narrative that fits. Lowell is really strictly a PoE read in that there are points where I can't actively scumread them for. But they're literally not towny over any other player. They've played Pro Town. But Like I said in my last post playing Pro Scum doesnt make you scum, on the flip side, playing Pro Town does not make you Town. Because Scum want to blend in they will naturally do Pro Town moves. Especially if they are perceived to be the one who has to go deep.


Idfk. I will try to do a reset on my reads again tomorrow if I can or this evening and redo them but this is like the 3rd time I'm doing that and I doubt my conclusions will shift.

[Confidently Wrong]

wild how a 2nd vote made lowell post more analysis then they have all game. lets see if the trend continues.

i do believe you bussed harder than scum would have to d1 because scum were constantly on the chopping block in a world where you are scum, so have fun.

and yes scum NK players they tunnel all day all the fucking time don't try to give me that nice try tho

[Confidently Wrong]

OK but there were 3 scum alive at the time. Why would a Lowell scum read take precedence over a Loftwing scum read for example?

i dont understand the question

[Confidently Wrong]

btw i am one of the best reevaluators on this site, if I am wrong on something, I will always eventually move to the right answer. the fact I was not in fact able to reevaulate that lowell is town, should mean that they are scum. it is one of my greatest strengths as town and it wins me games. I get killed before limlo often even if i just strongarmed a town elimination. because many players know that I will be able to properly readjust and power through and solve the game. I am very rarely wrong by the time I reach endgame.

[Confidently Wrong]

That is to say, I may look like I am just tunneling Lowell here, but there have been moments where i have reexamined things and built upon existing arguments or scrapped old arguments and built up new ones based on new evidence. Here is where I am at now;

Enchant
Irrelephant
Eira(if vig, if not vig moves down below BBT)
BBT
MalcomTucker
Dunnstall
___
Lowell

malcom prob should be higher but recency bias

[Confidently Wrong]

Why does Lowell just overrule his team in terms of having to kill the person who is scum reading him. Instead of say the person who was scum reading Loft who was in a much more dangerous position of potentially being elimmed on D2.

Then, not only does he get his kill, he then starts to bus his buddy for absolutely no reason. In what world does scum!Lowell think he can get to end game here?

I think its as simple as that Lowell was designated to endgame and was in the process of bussing Loftwing and loftwing was considered a lost cause at that point.

[Confidently Wrong]

If I’m scum here I let the PoE play out, I would win

ur literally spewed off shoshin/loft, anyone scumreading your slot is just reaching really hard or scum(or rather both)

[Confidently Wrong]

That is to say, I may look like I am just tunneling Lowell here, but there have been moments where i have reexamined things and built upon existing arguments or scrapped old arguments and built up new ones based on new evidence. Here is where I am at now;

Enchant
Irrelephant
Eira(if vig, if not vig moves down below BBT)
BBT
MalcomTucker
Dunnstall
___
Lowell

malcom prob should be higher but recency bias

actually im fucking stupid and Eira is obviously at the very top if vig bc vig is a clear role lol but i consider the top 3 essentially cleared town so thats why i didnt put them there bc the top 2's dayplay is significantly better. regardless its like from malcom down are people who i dont think are explicitly spewed town but are very close to it and have shown towniness. above the lowell line

[Confidently Wrong]

Kenny was pushing both Loft and Shoshin early day 1 so by the same logic used to townread Lowell one would also townread Kenny.

Dunns what's your view now on the gamestate? I want you to do some work yourself if you please, like some interpretations or analysis

[Confidently Wrong]

Whats the PoE according to you though, its a hot debate on some people.

[Confidently Wrong]

Enchant
Irrelephant
Eira

I think leaving out these 3 names gets us the win, and I don't think the last mafia can kill them all fast enough.

Don't really think it is you but your name seems relevant this game so far

Listen...................

[Confidently Wrong]

Get me a 3 person PoE by clearing more slots. The more you show work the more it should ease scumreads against you.

[Confidently Wrong]

Also i know i haven't commented on it but i have this feeling lowell now with pressure is trying to mimic what im doing to nullify the towniness of it to save themselves idk how to explain it just feels out of the blue plus none of the posts actually explained how several of his reads moved with no reason for them to move between those points.

[Confidently Wrong]

CW: post more please

Also CW: hmmm you posted more. SUSPICIOUS!

its about the content of your posts. bud. you didnt explain any thing that was asked to be explained. you chose to position yourself in a way that was clearly being perceived as towny by others.

[Confidently Wrong]

I'm going to do an exercise and try to go through lowell's ISO and find reasons to townread them and make a list. I ask people who are townreading the slot to do a similar exercise and look for reasons to scumread them. Its an exercise called "trustfalls" and "distrustfallls" I've learned from my home site of epicmafia that has helped reeval. I'm also rechecking malcom because we haven't heard from them in a while and their posts this phase were .. unimpressive. I am like 90% sure that I did this earlier and found them spewed town but I'm going to dig deeper and see if it was definitely the case because I am seeing some town things peeking thru on Lowell but I want to be .. sure. Dunns kinda not doing work I'm asking them to properly is not helping because I wanted them to narrow down the PoE as much as possible and show what they thought about people, like explain what they saw that spews X person townie, etc. rather than just whatever it is they did. I'm still confident on BBT town though I think theyre kinda obvtown in a way that is hard to explain this day phase and I lowkey think theyre one of the townier slots despite their anti town plays in the game.

[Confidently Wrong]

If you're town lowell, this is exactly what I meant when I said I was one of the best reevaluators on this site. I do not simply stick to a conclusion always, I may be hesitant to abandon one, but when I see something new happen I make sure I double check things. Well this is addressed even if you are scum but its an appeal to a town lowell.

I don't just sit down and do nothing even if I think the game is solved because I play to win very seriously as this is my primary hobby after all and I take pride in it.

I'm going to try to metadive Kenny slot too if i can. Here's a to do list that I ask people to hold me accountable for:

1. Trustfall Lowell(find reasons to townread him and make a list of them)
2. Reread Malcom and reeval if they're really town or not.
3. Look through Kenny meta and compare it to this game. Also maybe look at Dunn meta as well.

[Confidently Wrong]

Eira i hope u know that if town loses your bad case on me is the primary reason thanks

[Confidently Wrong]

Lowell definitely continued to push loft’s elimination *even though* momentum was shifting away from loft/the wagon was stalling. Like at one point on D1 scum!Lowell had to think “I’m bussing no matter what! I WILL kill my teammate even if an easy alternative exists!!”

You were completely right here before switching onto the vote for Lowell. Lowell not only wanted to vote for Loftwing but actively encouraged us to finalise the hammer at one point. That moves from bussing to active self-sabotage for me given the clear, eventual scum plan was for Lowell to claim a role. Lowell's play as scum only makes sense if there'd been a fairly weak vote which either remained there without much comment, or a vote that was quickly removed.

Level 0 analysis

[Confidently Wrong]

Malcom read my.iso challenge and respond to literally anything [failed]

[Confidently Wrong]

I'm going to do an exercise and try to go through lowell's ISO and find reasons to townread them and make a list. I ask people who are townreading the slot to do a similar exercise and look for reasons to scumread them. Its an exercise called "trustfalls" and "distrustfallls" I've learned from my home site of epicmafia that has helped reeval. I'm also rechecking malcom because we haven't heard from them in a while and their posts this phase were .. unimpressive.

I am like 90% sure that I did this earlier and found them spewed town but I'm going to dig deeper and see if it was definitely the case because I am seeing some town things peeking thru on Lowell but I want to be .. sure.

Dunns kinda not doing work I'm asking them to properly is not helping because I wanted them to narrow down the PoE as much as possible and show what they thought about people, like explain what they saw that spews X person townie, etc. rather than just whatever it is they did. I'm still confident on BBT town though I think theyre kinda obvtown in a way that is hard to explain this day phase and I lowkey think theyre one of the townier slots despite their anti town plays in the game.

I've had a busy few days and been a bit disengaged so apologies for that, I appreciate I've not contributed as much as I'd have hoped to on this turn.

I'm not sure how you'd be able to read my ISOs/interactions and come back with anything other than solid town. I was the first player Shoshin pushed. I then pushed back at Shoshin and hinted they might be scum because it was a lazy and incoherent push. I then later pushed Loftwing. We know Gamma/Shoshin bussed on Loftwing's slot when it came to the vote. A scumteam of Loftwing/Gamma+Shoshin/myself would basically rely on all three scumteam members regularly pushing each other.

I literally fucking made the conclusion earlier buddy.
Try not to.omgus and instead realize.im.fucking uninformed and also am human. I dont remember everything

[Confidently Wrong]

Like damn very few people are thinking "what does koba do as town here" only thinking "koba would do this as scum so confirmed scum"

Mainly speaking at eira and malcon

Im fucking allowed to tinfoil shit when people are being wrong on me and double check my work. If you're town you have literally NOTHING to fear.

[Confidently Wrong]

Sorry been busy, will catch up on recent posts.

lovely hope to hear from u soon

I think your case on CW a few pages back is pretty solid to be honest, it's given me more confidence in where I was before after some doubts.

I don't think Lowell's responses have been pretty great - I'd have liked to have seen a more proactive effort from them to towncase themselves, but I also feel like scum Lowell would perhaps be more pushed to make said towncase if they were scum given I'd likely be on their side.

I also appreciate the risk of getting too actively involved in an argument with CW where it ends up just taking up pages and pages without the game progressing and nothing happening expect lots of doubt being sowed.

VOTE: Confidently Wrong

Youre afraid of being proven wrong because you care about your ego more than being right on me
You dont give. A shit if im town or scum.

[Confidently Wrong]

I'm unsure I like SCP floating Bnuuy on the basis it has to be an alternative to Nashville when we still seem to have plenty of time and could explore various different options.

Here's a recent example of malcom being blatantly.wrong on me while im pushing actual.scum in a diffrent game btw

He refuses to learn how to read me bc basing a read on feelings.is easier than reconsidering logic lmao

[Confidently Wrong]

I pushed your mislim.im that game malcom and i used it to improve. If im scum i just push you as scum this game because its easy to copy recency. Solve from your own slots pov.

God how the fuck am i supposed to argue against incorrect logic this is impossible. And my top scumread getting cleared for what can easily be a bus when both scum kills were actually
Wagon context too fucking hard amirite.

Not a fucking fan of BBT just sheeping the most consensus wagon available though.

I get fucking extra scrutiny because im loud but lowell just changes a read with 0 progression for no reason and people sleep.

WHY DOES LOWELL INSTANT PUSH KENNY AFTER CALLING THEM TOWN THE DAY BEFORE. Nothing changed at all.

[Confidently Wrong]

And if i am eliminated i strongly insist on sticking a PoE that is [lowell, bbt, dunn] and thats it.
And make sure all of them are pushing contributions.

[Confidently Wrong]

Nah u dont wanna be convinced. Take the L and learn

[Confidently Wrong]

You're not convincing me of your logical approach very well. You got scared over me being thorough when if you used logic instead of accusing me of not clearing you off your iso you'd see i already did that

[Confidently Wrong]

Love being considered simultaneously the worst and the best scum player at the same time. As well as informed of my team but also playing as if i was uninformed. All scum play like this it is so true. /s.

Tell me - what would i do here as town in your view? And dont give me bs that i will just do it if you say it bc I don't play how others want me to .

[Confidently Wrong]

Sorry malcom but ive played this game long enough to know that bussing exists and just pushing scum doesnt clear someone. Similarly just not pushing scum doesnt make someome scum. Unless you think BBT and I are both scum here.

[Confidently Wrong]

Malcom - real shit - why does going for the best option to doubt a scumread on me make me scum? Thats not logical at all. That's just personal feelings. Of course as town I will pushbto convince someone the best way I can. I know I'm town i can explain it however i want.

Just because YOU roll over and die when you get pushed like you did in the multiball game doesnt mean all townies do.

[Confidently Wrong]

Ok. If you dont wanna find me town whatever. My fucking concern is people like you misclearing lowell and are gonna push like irrelephant in 3 way over him and lose us the game. You make me this promise - after i flip(and it will be town) you shove your "lowell pushed scum to flip" and listen to the arguments ive presented rather than stubbornly cling to what clearly led you the wrong way aside and put lowell in that PoE like i am asking.

[Confidently Wrong]

You need to promise you are going to actually consider my argument on him instead of disrespecting my work to find context and clear other players by reading the game.
THIS is 50% of why im so hardcore pushing this. Because ive seen this shit before. Dude gets cleared for good bus and then wins in endgame. Hell, ive been that player.

[Confidently Wrong]

Literally why the fuck do i hard defend shoshin after seeing them flake my game in a recent game and thus would assume they hate beint scum AND also seeing CSF fumble setting up thus not wanting to trust teammates to carry by bussing me. I would bus shoshin here. Its fucking logical..

But nah its not YOUR logic. It makes too much sense and it would mean changing your read. Changing your read badddddd. Cant do that lmao. Would be terrible to be wrong on me now that ive said mean words.

[Confidently Wrong]

Why does Lowell just overrule his team in terms of having to kill the person who is scum reading him. Instead of say the person who was scum reading Loft who was in a much more dangerous position of potentially being elimmed on D2.

Then, not only does he get his kill, he then starts to bus his buddy for absolutely no reason. In what world does scum!Lowell think he can get to end game here?

Hey bbt this u

[Confidently Wrong]

Unlike most townies i dont play half asleep and remember things <3

[Confidently Wrong]

Malcom the issue is you refuse to consider a world where im town and look outside me at all.
Its lazy. Its frustrating to be on the receiving end. And constantly calling me scummy for bringing up facts about what youre doing or trying to prove myself town or expressing my frustration with a frustrating situation is downright unpleasant for me. Im not one to talk sure, but perhaps consider how you'd feel in my place as a townie.

[Confidently Wrong]

ITS NOT FUCKING BASELESS.

[Confidently Wrong]

You think its baseless bc youre so deep in your tunnel you cant se any light

[Confidently Wrong]

Its fucking based on a ton of shit in the scenario where im town(protip i am) and thats just insulting.

[Confidently Wrong]

Everything i do is scummy.
Trying to solve for townies in POe and push who i think is scum with analytical logic ? Scummy, because trying to look townie
Trying to self towncase with logic that shows that it is ridiculous for me to be scum based on actions this game? Scummy
Trying to show that im town based on spew from scum? Scummy because im trying to show myself town(lol?)
Paranoia tinfoiling someone because theyve been absent for several days and im feeling unsure in the moment on the current POe? Scummy because somehow trying to widen poe before i even do it and present arguments.

This is what i see from people pushing me when i try to fight back.
Doesnt matter how much thought process and work i show, i cant fucking win because the conclusion is being worked from BACKWARDS. there is an assumption i am scum purely based on who i pushed and then no thought put into it further. Thats it.

This is not how you play town effectively. This is how you miseliminate a townie easily.

I think its just rich you're accusing me of illogical arguments malcom when yours aren't even rooted in logic beyond "wrong = scum" and just trying to make up points that make no sense to link me to scum.

[Confidently Wrong]

fred and shosh lean scum, CW lean town, and no opinion on the others

unvote, vote loftwing

Fine with this. No particular read on loft one way or the other but I’ve done dumber things with less reason.

@eira, loft/kenny/CW would be a hilariously clumsy scumteam so I doubt it. But loft with one of those two seems possible, with the third person being the duped town player along for the ride.

Dudes loft posted 8 times in the last day and a half, listing all his suspects, what exactly you want from him? Vote him or don’t. BBT is scum, eira is probably town, I have this read in my head and can’t shake it now.

Fine. I’ll be white-knighting scumBBTs errand boy if it gets us a vote.

vote Fred

I guess this ship has sailed, but man does that ever seem like a fake-claim. Never heard of a neighborizer—why would it exist in a mini.

Just far too many posts like this on D1 for Lowell to be scum. Under this logic they push both teammates and, again, the idea here is the scum team were basically all constantly pushing each other.

CW will say "but apart from that there isn't much to towncase them on" - but that's silly because the fundamental argument here is Lowell just pushes the two confirmed way too much for it to make sense as scum. The entire scumcase just doesn't work for me because it involves ignoring this.

Distancing doesnt exist... you miss the part where they push csf completely. And then the fact they double down on loft while theres a counterwagon on them

This is what im talking about. You think 1 dimensionally.

[Confidently Wrong]

Malcom the issue is you refuse to consider a world where im town and look outside me at all.

Its lazy. Its frustrating to be on the receiving end. And constantly calling me scummy for bringing up facts about what youre doing or trying to prove myself town or expressing my frustration with a frustrating situation is downright unpleasant for me. Im not one to talk sure, but perhaps consider how you'd feel in my place as a townie.

You're doing the exact same with Lowell, no?

I am willing to look outside a world where you're not scum. I have acknowledged multiple times I might be wrong. I think BBT could potentially be scum, for example, given the way the game has gone so far and if you come back town, I think that well-presented (but ultimately faulty) case on Fred will require a lot more scrutiny.

My view is though that you are most likely to be scum and I struggle to see that changing before the day is out given we're not going to obtain any new info that goes beyond theorising on what we know so far.

Also - on the latter part, it's happened to me multiple times. It's frustrating but it happens. Someone has to be eliminated. Someone has to be read as scum. It probably sucked for Fred on D1 but even by being wrong we got a lot of info.

I did consider lowell town at multiple points actually and you just failed the test of proving you actually read what i say.

[Confidently Wrong]

Regardless my scumread *has* softened due to them actually starting to post. But that was right after Irrelephant11 voted for them so it is not enough to lift above anyone still.

I am going to reread BBT now because they just had their 3rd pro scum move ive seen this game and thats their 3rd strike and it needs to be scrutinized again.
Btw this kinda stuff is how I determine where to reread is if i see some weird shit x amount of times no matter who it is unless theyre mech clear 100% i start to reconsider what ive concluded and double check.

[Confidently Wrong]

You refuse to be convinced on the basis that i am trying to convince you rather than evaluating my arguments lmao
If i am scum using these arguments they will not be effective.

My modus operandi as scum is to avoid having to analyze content from the game on previous days so i can pretend to push people for recent content over holistic content.

[Confidently Wrong]

Everything i do is scummy.

Trying to solve for townies in POe and push who i think is scum with analytical logic ? Scummy, because trying to look townie
Trying to self towncase with logic that shows that it is ridiculous for me to be scum based on actions this game? Scummy
Trying to show that im town based on spew from scum? Scummy because im trying to show myself town(lol?)

Paranoia tinfoiling someone because theyve been absent for several days and im feeling unsure in the moment on the current POe? Scummy because somehow trying to widen poe before i even do it and present arguments.

This is what i see from people pushing me when i try to fight back.
Doesnt matter how much thought process and work i show, i cant fucking win because the conclusion is being worked from BACKWARDS. there is an assumption i am scum purely based on who i pushed and then no thought put into it further. Thats it.

This is not how you play town effectively. This is how you miseliminate a townie easily.

I think its just rich you're accusing me of illogical arguments malcom when yours aren't even rooted in logic beyond "wrong = scum" and just trying to make up points that make no sense to link me to scum.

You know perfectly well that scum would attempt to do all these things from their POV if they are trying to stay in the game. It's the literal objective of mafia. Good scum try to control the game and - especially when in a disadvantaged position - try to manipulate other players in a way which will get them onside.

I have literally made multiple posts outlining reasons with previous posts of yours detailing why I think you are scum.

Fear of manipulation to avoid logical arguments. Awesome logic.

[Confidently Wrong]

Youve already admitted you are cherrypicking my meta arguments as invalid solely on the basis im using them to show myself as town. When in fact meta is a very useful tool and would make me look obvious town.

[Confidently Wrong]

Ive already linked the fact that shoshin was trying to shade csf by trying to pretend im preflipped scum to lowell pushing csf too.

[Confidently Wrong]

I actaully have been hiding my meta by playing on alts intentionally because ive been becoming more findable by meta this year. But sure lol

[Confidently Wrong]

Hectic did a similar thing btw. A lot of scum players with decent town metas do too.

[Confidently Wrong]

i would bring up that the csf kill is actively horrible for me if im scum but I'm used to people crying "wifom" when it literally never happens when im scum. And thats exactly why i dont wifom kill because i get into these stupid situations as town.

[Confidently Wrong]

I will say thank you for starting to look outside me at least malcom i wont begrudge the fact you're doing what i asked at least wrt not just solo pushing me even if i disagre still

[Confidently Wrong]

Sorry if i said anything out of line, my goal is to figure out what part of my thought process/logic or whatever that i am doing i can present to prove i am town. I did explain shoshin and loftwing reads - albeit the loftwing one was more me being egotistical and believing i had their meta right, and shoshin similarly but i had logical reasons based on concurrent games.

[Confidently Wrong]

Irrelephant11 i have checked like 3 times and theyre spewed town. They similarly believed shoshin was out of scum meta similarly to me on d1.

[Confidently Wrong]

Sorry if i said anything out of line, my goal is to figure out what part of my thought process/logic or whatever that i am doing i can present to prove i am town. I did explain shoshin and loftwing reads - albeit the loftwing one was more me being egotistical and believing i had their meta right, and shoshin similarly but i had logical reasons based on concurrent games.

To add on to this, my town philosophy is to prevent every miselimination possible. In the last mini normal we played i did this on day 1 by vehemently opposing that elimination. Preventing miselims is in my view the best way to win as town(well obviously, but rather moreso think, narrowing down the POE as much as possible even when the person is on the chopping block is important)

[Confidently Wrong]

OK, but Irrelephant was also super confident in being able to read Shoshin based off meta

Indeed. Shoshin broke meta tells this game, which Irrelephant11 can back up. I am sure if they stayed in the game they'd have been found by either of us though.(potentially)

The boldness was *not* expected from that slot.

[Confidently Wrong]

Fwiw after everything is said and done Lowells recent posting has him as having more depth than dunns atm which is why i wanted to grill dunn more now.

[Confidently Wrong]

I've seen it happen before and we lost bc 2 townies were hellbent tunneled on that logic.

[Confidently Wrong]

Pokemon theme game btw

[Confidently Wrong]

Also i won a game in recent times bc i ignored bussing and focused on process. 1 scum hellbused teammates, i pushed them anyways. 2 times in the past year alone
Its rare. But it should always be considered when people dont show their work.
There is my proof though that i obviously ignore things like voting correctly in lieu of how the person reached the conclusion

[Confidently Wrong]

I struggle to reach bbt scum bc i relate to them in that we did similar things this game. If someone can show a contrast in gow scum treated me/bbt or how i played significantly different mindset wise illl hear it out.

[Confidently Wrong]

Speak of the devil lmfao

[Confidently Wrong]

I've seen it happen before and we lost bc 2 townies were hellbent tunneled on that logic.

It can work but only occasionally and carries major risk. Even if you bus well and town-clear yourself there's always the risk an investigate player manages to out you. I just don't see the benefit of scum playing the way they played D1. Loftwing was scummy but not a lost cause - no reason for all scum to pressure him or for Lowell to actively call for his hammering.

LMAOOO funny story. We killed the cop with a guilty before they could out it on the last scum. Partially bc i was so sure it was them and so were others so we piled on.

[Confidently Wrong]

How does the vig thing work here? If it's still in play that is? I feel like BBT/CW ultimately solves the game and if there's a way we can eliminate them both I would potentially advocate for that.

Likely compulsive vig and we can prob kill 4 people more bc of it.

[Confidently Wrong]

How does the vig thing work here? If it's still in play that is? I feel like BBT/CW ultimately solves the game and if there's a way we can eliminate them both I would potentially advocate for that.

Likely compulsive vig and we can prob kill 4 people more bc of it.

Elimination today->vig kills-> 5p->elimination->vig kill OR we go to 3p->elimination

[Confidently Wrong]

im willing to watch someone else get pushed for a change even if im unwilling to see them as particularly scummy solely because theyve done pro scum things thus far and i could just be wrong again

Have fun bbt ive had my turn ^.^

[Confidently Wrong]

I'll give a reread of bbt again myself and also reread the spew.

[Confidently Wrong]

Also for reference I'm liking scum in:
{Loftwing/Kenny/Lowell/Malakittens}

Increasing the net would add {BBT, and maybe Eira}

Kenny is scum.

This is also extremely rude. If there is any town block, I'll be in it and that's the end of that.

Alright Kenny, you convinced me.

VOTE: Lowell

VOTE: Kenny

I'd wagon Fred Mala, similar feelings regarding their posts

I'm so far behind in this game, only read properly up to page 11.

Loftwing wagon seems bad though, likely scum on that push. Gonna try my best to catch up today

Malcolm?
Fred?
Yourself?

UNVOTE:

Of course you do.

Maybe Eira, too? You could just be bad at the game I guess.

There is at least one scum in Fred/Malcolm.

wee woo i want bbt to explain some of these takes

[Confidently Wrong]

Fred;

156 This was the first post that caught my attention. The LAMIST post, give three town reads. Extremely easy for scum to do given the extra information they have - three scum reads would be better to create actual content, no?

214 The random push on the LHF. I get this to an extent, it's early game so push the low posters for content. 223, 334 335 though continues this push further, now it becomes a 'genuine push' as opposed to a low content push and is where I start to dislike it. This is the first time he sheeps CW.

348 His fascination with Eira not voting anyone. This continues for quite some time and yet he doesn't apply this to other players - like Malcolm.

545 He votes Eira. Sheeping CW (again) and Irrelephant. Now, as scum, this is a great way to go by unnoticed right? Just do what the loudest, widest town read players do and you get no hassle. He very much goes with the flow of the thread and I'm not sure I've seen any originality from him at all?

554 OK, some explanation for the Eira vote. Fascination with the no voting (again) and given it seems so important to him, why has he not applied the same thinking to Malcolm? I mean, the first paragraph is a narrative of what happened and doesn't actually indicate why he thinks Eira is scum. The whole post has a lot of words but doesn't actually say why what Eira has done is scummy.

Eira wagon; Eiralox (5): Confidently Wrong, Irrelephant11, Fredrick A Campbell, Cat Scratch Fever, Loftwing

Is that all town? Seems unlikely.

572 LAMIST, don't anybody dare hammer my scumread!

He is first to jump off the Eira wagon though, which gives me some pause. It is, though, after Irrelephant mentions he has lost his Shoshin and Mala reads. 647 pre-emptively sheeping by voting Mala.

766 Random vote on Lowell. Literally, aside from talking about low content posters, this has come from nowhere. Or has it? In 753 Irrelephant says that Mala is town...and just like that, Fred backs off Mala. Not only does he back off Mala, he again chooses to go for the LHF. We're now 31 pages into the game by the way.

768 A horrific explanation for the shift in votes.

838 Why is he asking why Loft is town? Angling to join the wagon? He has shown no previous interest in this player.

842 Declares intent to hammer Loft? WHAT? Where did this come from? After some talk about Fred possibly being scum he speeds up his 'timer' for hammering Loft.

Can anyone guess who recently joined the Loft push before Fred decided it was good for him, too? You get two guesses.

Spoiler: Who is it?

It's Irrelephant (again!)

892 Justification for the Loft vote. It's simply appalling that this late into the game, all of Fred's reads amount to 'but they're not doing anything.' He has sheeped either CW or Irrelephant the entire game.

This is BBT’s towniest post and also one of the top ten pro-scum posts this game

Are the other 9 posts from me

[Confidently Wrong]

Lmao im def town just on a streak of bad town games rn. Lost the fire that makes me good for whatever reason and been WOATing.

[Confidently Wrong]

Hell even my last scum game was kinda terrible even tho i started super strong. Lost my motivation bc it felt unwinnable. Its kinda like, why i feel i should be obvious town based on that. CSF and i found eachother town bc we knew we were scum together at the same time and were like lowkey signaling to eachother "yup ur not scum like in the other game" in how we townread eachother

Dunno. I think maybe i post so much that while it is possible to easily* find me.town it requires too much effort becauae of the volume lol. Easy in the sense that if you fully read me it is the natural conclusion and all.

[Confidently Wrong]

BBT, correct me if I'm wrong, but this dayphase you've strictly pushed anyone who was viable.

[Confidently Wrong]

Let's not go down silly rabbit holes.

I'm town. Irrelephant, why wouldn't I town read someone for potentially being Commuter?

Because you haven't in the past. Did you know that all of your posting history in games is saved on this site?

Subject: Mini Normal 2009: Day 6

I mean, Tex could quite easily be scum commuter so we should probably just lynch her and not let her survive on a claim alone.

VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee

also if this is town, the fresh slot take is usually good esp from someone who is decent at town like Dunn


also to lowell, you actually showing up with analysis this dayphase helped me loosen my tunnel enough to start to think I need to look elsewhere. because thats the type of stuff I need from people to help me find them town which I have tried to beg from you since day 2. I didn't just ask you to do that because I wanted to bad faith call it scummy analysis, I did that because I wanted to see if you could even do it. it was a prerequisite for me to be allowed to find you as towny.

[Confidently Wrong]

I mean if you're scum from your POV you have to get 4 kills somewhere outside of you


me, dunn, irrelephant, lowell sounds like a fine plan, or rather the only plan

[Confidently Wrong]

It was a way to extort a read out of CW, which reflects bad on anyone not wishing to do the same on someone else.

This assumes I'm not making a push to get a better read on BBT.

Were you making a push on BBT to get a read on them?

post 156 in spoiler below

Spoiler:

Here's something we could all do. Give any three reads on any three players you are willing to make public. The consequences of not doing so will be determined by everyone that participates.

I'll start

Cat Scratch Fever - Town (145)
FancyPants - Town (25)
Eiralox - Town (Not answering questions)

I don't particularly have any reads.

Seen everyone's post? Select a few posts that are most alignment indicative for you now and get yourself a few.

I have read the entire game, and nothing is particularly notable.

I do think that CSF and BBT show a genuine interest in pushing the game forward, rather than a fabricated reason to go after their respective targets.

mm now when I link this to the fact that shoshin was the one leading the kill and BBT hard defended Loftwing, the Shoshin kill lead matches.

[Confidently Wrong]

lol sorry irrelephant u were right earlier that i just towntunneled BBT for pushing the same shit as me 100% bc we were both proscumming

[Confidently Wrong]

ok i found the sequence from Shoshin where they start to hard push Loft a big reason why I found Lowell viably scum despite the push on scum. I remember now. Because I percieved Shoshin pushing Loft similarly hard as Lowell pushing Loft.

If like anyone cares about my process or anything

[Confidently Wrong]

Ok. I can't say with my reread that I can confidently remove Lowell from my bottom 4, *but* I have BBT as the bottom person based on the new interactions. Like scum MO was pretty clearly to distance but not do anything with it.

[Confidently Wrong]

VOTE: BBT

[Confidently Wrong]

By new interactions I mean ones that I have recently found and actually processed properly and assessed.

[Confidently Wrong]

On the one hand CW's sudden push of BBT could be seen as very opportunistic given it's likely their most viable route to escape elimination.

On the other hand, I feel like CW would have known this a while back and the push on Lowell had rather evidently been going nowhere for a while. Shfiting onto BBT - or at least away from Lowell - at an earlier opportunity should have surely been a more advantageous move for scum.

if you look I was already becoming less sure on lowell last night (irl) when lowell started posting more, this is just the end of that natural progression. because I still need to find a "who" to move to from there and before that I felt sure that everyone else was town.

[Confidently Wrong]

I believe in self pres as either alignment unless I believe I need to confirm my slot as town to prove a point. So NAI for me, BBT did instant hammer me in a recent game for even breathing in their direction implying they could be scum.

But here it feels different in that they pushed kenny right away when thread consensus was to kill them then swapped to me when my wagon started building. Self pres isnt scummy but it is when you push any wagon that will go over.


I have concluded that it is plausible BBT pushed Fred over Lowell here due to having a stated in game townread on Lowell as well as Shoshin having a townread on Lowell thus making that wagon unviable for both of them and making it harder to go there.

[Confidently Wrong]

Had they had better gametstate analysis it would have been clear that loftwing wouldnt go over and strictly allowing the lowell wagon to happen was the smarter play anyways and no need to case fred. The case can be explained by scum panic, as to why make such an unwise move.

[Confidently Wrong]

And their reaction to being pushed is frankly, just very weak while compared to how lowell has been reacting to being pushed, which is objectively actually towny. I would include myself as an example of a towny reaction to being pushed but thats controversial and I can point at it post game for the people who don't want to believe me.

[Confidently Wrong]

because mala was in the PoE.

[Confidently Wrong]

it is almost certain that mafia have a rolecop because a backup rolecop flipped

[Confidently Wrong]

and we suspect a compulsive vigilante exists because obviously a) mafia flipped n1 and b) a compulsive vigilante backup flipped

[Confidently Wrong]

i already figured out the vig from context clues starting d1 and having the vig confirmed via the night 1 kill sooooooooooooooooooooo

[Confidently Wrong]

(i am very good at PR hunting as any alignment lol)