Of the four other votes so far, he seems to be trying the hardest not to sound like scum.
Open 99: Mayo Clinic (Game Over!) before 703
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unvote: nameless
vote: charter
Going with a kind of connect 4 theory here, on who wants to risk getting closer to a high number this early (yeah, 3 is way not even close to 7, but we don't have a lot to go on right now). Also just trying to keep the votes spread until we get some more tells.
What's this idea with rotating protection? We could try it for this round at least. If people claim vig and we get three or four, that's still enough to keep them protected, even double protect two without having to out doctors (if all doctors focus on those four, they'll be protected with some natural overlap). Though I guess the flaw here is that also outs the doctors as easy targets that night. There's really no way to do this yet, is there?---
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It's not great odds, but I guess it's better than the normal odds, which would be... Well... chance of lynching a town by mistake first round is 2/3, right? So, chances are we're looking at being down 1 before the night even begins.
Then, if we don't claim vigs, we're just randomly protecting people, so it's likely we'll waste atleast one doc on a mafia or the sk. Then we're only half protected, and we've got four kills at night (right? 1 mafia, 1 sk, 2 vigs?) assuming we haven't lynched the sk or vigs. But the kills are also random. It's likely two will hit protected people, and two won't. Those unprotected people are more likely to be town, so it would not be very hard for us to end up with three dead docs on the morning of day 1.
If that makes sense, the vig claiming sounds better. But I may be missing something.---
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Sorry Plum. The Lynch thing for you was a poor joke. I'd be much more likely to vote for you based on your extremely strong reaction, but that's just me.
I think we're all in agreement on the lack of role claiming. So, where does that leave us?
Apparently, I've got the FOS. So, you know, awesome.
I still have my connect four suspicion on charter, but that's just a hunch among a sea of weak feelings.
Plum had a violent reaction to being called out, but that's seems more like a volatile player than a scum trying to avoid suspicion. Or is that what she wants us to think? (sorry about calling you a he, also)
And then there's my nameless smiley face theory. Jeez, day 1 is hard.---
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I don't know why I didn't think about this before. Charter was saying that we should try to avoid night deaths, right? He was essentially saying that time, in this setup, gives us a better chance to win. If we keep deaths low, that gives us more time to use our doctors for protection and gather intel to avoid accidentally killing one of our own (since all town are either doc or vig, we're all pretty key for the team).
So, who else is for a NL on day 1, then see what happens tonight?
unvote: charter
vote: NO LYNCH---
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We're pretty likely to have two deaths tonight, aren't we? There are seven docs, one who can aim his protection, and the other six shooting in the dark, so you're likely to have overlap there. That would probably give us five or six people who are protected (out of 12, so about half). Then you have four kill attempts (1 mafia, 2 vigs, 1 sk), which are less likely to overlap since there are less of them. If there are four attempts on a group of half protected people, wouldn't we expect two of them to go through?
Maybe charter wants to avoid a No Lynch since a lynch would mean the likelihood of us killing one of our own docs (50% chance of this happening).FoS: charter.
Also, I know I'm drawing a lot of suspicion myself by talking this much. Just trying to see how people reacted to different things (who would jump on a two-vote first to make it a three vote [also charter] and how people react to being voted for). Since I'm advocating a No Lynch now, there's not much point in testing the water any more.---
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Sorry that didn't answer everything people asked. Posts came as I was typing.
My idea behind the No Lynch was based on charter's idea, so I did think it was strange he went against it.
However, I do think we can get more info out of the night stage than this part of the scum hunt. If we lynch, we have a 75% chance of knocking out one of our own, and then having a worse night stage (because we'll have less protection from the doctors, or one less kill attempt from one of our vigs). If we make a plan for protection, that would be something to analyze on day 2. Right now, we have nothing but suspicions, and we're more likely to hurt ourselves than help.
If no one wants a No Lynch, I'll put my vote back on charter, for the reasons mentioned before.---
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This is my first forum game, yes. Hence my propensity for what is apparently too much thinking out loud. It seems no matter what I say, I make someone suspicious of me. Still, I can't leave questions unanswered
My suspicion of charter was two-fold. He was the first to jump on a double-vote, making it a three-vote very early in the game. Secondly was his odd stance on the night thing. He says there's unlikely to be a death tonight, which is completely untrue (we're likely to have between 1 and 3 deaths tonight) yet when I suggested avoiding a lynch to keep deaths even lower, he was against that. Contradictions tend to seem scummy.
Which brings me back to me. Yes, I've had different ideas through out this topic. Like I said, I was looking for reactions. I also tried to give a lot of my reasons for things as they came. It is my first game, and I didn't want to appear random (which would likely make me seem suspicious) instead of what I actually am, which is experimental.
Also, on the odds thing, it may be better than other mafia set ups, but it's still not in our favor. I suggested that we make some kind of protection plan (as had been mentioned by others first) so that we had something to analyze on day 2, and just do a No Lynch to lower the amount of deaths before we have some solid info.---
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Okay, so, I never said that the 66% percent odds were bad in terms of other Mafia set ups. I just said it wasn't in our favor (by definition, if the odds are 51% against us or more, we're more likely to kill one of our own). But if it's sort of established that this is what you deal with on day one, perhaps killing one of your own and using what people have said as information to fuel the night kills, then I'm happy to withdraw my point.
unvote: No Lynch
Also, my point about charter was not that he didn't want to No Lynch, it was that he didn't want to No Lynch after making that misleading post about wanting to keep deaths low. He said there would likely not be any deaths at night, which is completely untrue (we are likely to have about two deaths tonight) and he was the first one to suggest this was a good thing (keeping deaths low overall to give us more time to gather info). I got railroaded for believing the latter and questioning the former, though I see now I should have questioned both. So:
vote: charter
That's all.---
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I didn't misinterpret. He said something that was misleading, I think purposefully. Why would you say Night Kills are likely not to happen? Why would you say that this was a good thing, since everyone is telling me now that deaths are a good way to get information? Why did no one jump on Charter for saying this, but did jump on me for believing it? And I had a suspicion aimed at Charter before because he jumped on a three vote really early, when most people spread the votes around. This is more like mafia behavior (seeing an early lead against someone they want gone, and adding to the vote) or the serial killer (seeing ANY vote total go up quickly is a good thing).---
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By the way, these are the quotes I'm referring to:
charter wrote:Another point of note. I think it might be very likely we go a few nights with no kills without the massclaim, which seems like pushing the game towards nightless, which is much better for the town.charter wrote:I thought about no lynch, but in all honesty, I don't think it's the right option. I would be suprised if we have a kill tonight, so no lynch would put us right back where we are now (in all likelyhood).---
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Yes, I'm aware of that. I wasn't trying to blame charter for setting me up. That was my own misinterpretation and I've withdrawn it. It has been explained to me why No Lynching is a bad idea, and it makes sense.
What WAS misleading was that we're extremely far from being night kill free. We are likely to have two kills tonight, maybe more, possibly less, but still at least 1 is extremely likely to get through our protection. This is extremely easy to figure out (we can protect about half the players, leaving half the kills to go through). So why would he say, TWICE, that we shouldn't worry about night kills? Maybe he doesn't want us to make any plans that would help us!---
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Thanks for taking my words out of context.
I didn't misinterpret what charter said. I admitted to misinterpreting the established rules of mafia (in regards to no lynching on day 1).
He did says something misleading, but I am not blaming him for my No Lynch mistake. I AM blaming him for trying to mislead the group, though apparently I've acted as the perfect smoke screen to prevent people from seeing this.---
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I believed him, and used that as a base for my next string of thoughts. Everyone attacked me for those thoughts, and no one looked at charter. That's the smoke screen effect I was talking about.
And the idea that I would have to blame my No Lynch idea on charter in order to say he was misleading is not anything approaching logic. I do blame him for making a misleading post aimed at the group, and that this played into my own idea for a No Lynch, but I don't think that was his intention, so I don't blame him for that. I still blame him for making a post that was misleading in other ways (for the third time, saying that there would be no night kills, when there will be many).
If charter turns out to be scum, Kmd is likely a partner.---
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I was willing to drop all of this a page ago, but people kept asking me questions, so I answered them. I haven't advocated the No Lynch since it was broken down for me how it wouldn't help. It was an idea, and I dropped it. Aside from that, I don't think I've speculated about plans that wouldn't work any more than Charter, Wall-e, Kmd, or Kiro (look at page 2 where all of this started).Stef wrote:Hmm.. i think newbie games are there for a reason. Just my two cents. However, as apparently i like to repeat myself, being a newbie doesn't make his mistakes tolerable or acceptable. I won't give him the newbie status. He's a player like any other since he joined an OG instead of a NG. His nonsense is derailing the discussion and that is against scum-hunting no matter of his alignment.
I've said, like others, that I would like to get back to the game. I'm willing to take the ire of drawn so far and call it a loss. Can we move on now?---
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I think in this case WIFOM even helps keep the math even. If around half the killers and doctors are thinking "lets go for who looks like an easy target" and the other half are thinking "lets go for someone who looks strong because it won't be expected" the same percentages will apply.---
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hypothetical
Obviously this also plays into WIFOM, but if Wall-e and I were scum, wouldn't he try to distance himself from me right now? Since I'm a likely lynch target, him being the first to defend me would look terrible once my role were revealed.
/hypothetical
There's something you have to remember about WIFOM. It isn't used to say something is likely the opposite of how it seems. It's really describing an aspect of this game that makes things very hard to read. EVERYONE wants to appear innocent. You can have a strong feeling about WIFOM and how you feel people will vote, but it doesn't change the math involved. Some people will poison the wine in front of them, others will poison the wine in front of you. But you still don't know which side they are on, or if they are even a killer or a doc! Until we hit day 2, everything here is math.---
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I decided not to spend time trying to defend myself, because that's something everyone will try, town or scum. No one wants to get lynched. If you become a target, you can try to prove your innocence, but that in itself can look scummy if you're trying too hard. I found that the more vocal I was, the more ire I drew, so I've tried to learn from that mistake and take a step back. I'm trying to do a little more observation right now.Kiro wrote:
GnK's been continually pressured since his no-lynch vote. Regardless of him being newbie or not, I think he's running out of talking points and doesn't know how to defend himself at this stage. His last post is a mini-lecture about WIFOM that doesn't say much about himself. That there make him scummy enough in my eyes to see him lynched. Talk more about the suspicions about yourself or scumhunt. At this point, nothing else will save you.
Through a reread, charter still looks scummy to me. I would say Kiro's idea of not protecting is scum worthy, but I'll give it the same benefit that wasn't given to me, that it was just a bad idea. Other than that, people are mostly hard to read. I'd say Nameless is town. Probably Mana Ku aswell. I'd like to say Wall-E is town, but it would be a really good mafia move to try and defend the first lynch candidate (me) knowing he'll be revealed to be town, thus making himself look unscummy. Especially if he knows his two mafia buds (charter & Kmd?) will go after me, and the SK is likely to jump on any high vote total.---
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Just your willingness to join the attack against me and to defend charter, even when there was no defense for his position. There were legitimate reasons to be against my plan, which other people pointed out, and convinced me to change my mind. You, however, took things I said purposefully out of context to make me look worse.---
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That's a fair point of view. I wasn't trying to blame charter (which I made clear). He WAS being misleading, maybe he was just mistaken, and that mistake ended up fueling my own mistake, but I never said THAT was his intention. I actually said several times that it was NOT his intention, although I have a feeling he is being misleading in some way.
Also fair to say you're not really on either of our sides now, but just as Wall-E would look guilty if I turned out to be scum, I think you would seem scummy should Charter prove to be scum. At least at first glance.---
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The only way I felt Charter was being misleading was telling us not to worry about deaths at night. This is similar to Kiro asking us not to protect. He said it twice and was unable to come up with any reason for it, yet he hasn't changed his mind even after seeing the reasons against it. Holding on to irrational behavior seems odd to me.---
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That's a tough accusation. If you pay attention to the last few pages, I've only continued talking about it as people have asked me directly about it. Infact, the last time I was asked, I just told Charter to refer back to my earlier posts. So why am I the one who can't let it go?Nameless wrote:@ GK, the way you keep going about Charter's NK speculation.
Guess I can forget about my town read on you.---
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Do people really thinking posting a sentence fragment is going to help?
Also, both those quotes were answers to direct questions. Like I said, other people keep asking me things, so I give answers. My answers, since giving up on the bad no lynch idea, have been consistent. If I were being inconsistent, changing my answers to try to serve different people's ideas, that might look scummy. But I have a point of view, it has a reasoning behind it which I've given several times. No one has posted anything convincing that would oppose my idea, yet people keep questioning it. So again, I'll ask: Who is it who can't let this go?---
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The question I was answering was "Why would I connect KMD & Charter, and how does that make either of them seem scummy?"
Tell me how to answer that without giving my reasons for thinking Charter is scummy. Also, give me the quote where Charter explains his position in a way that I haven't countered. He said that the kills and protects are likely to be focused and thus cancel out, except I gave a post a while ago explaining how some people will avoid the focus to make their kills go where they aren't expected, and some will try to protect off focus for this very reason. I said that and it was dismissed as me "giving a lecture" as someone put it. If giving a valid counter point is being overly talkative, I'm not really sure what you would make you believe me. You seem convinced that I'm scum, or you want everyone to believe that to pull focus away from Charter (if you're both scum, using me as a scapegoat is a good plan). Except once you lynch me and everyone sees I'm town, you and Charter are the next ones gone, because that will only prove that I'm right.
'kay?---
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Nameless, I'm really done trying to defend against your accusations. You're not saying anything new, and I hope I'm not the only one who sees that. You've been extremely selective with the truth. If you're legit, I'm sorry you don't think my answers stack up. But you seem to either read my posts with a slant against me, or you want to set up that slant to draw more fire my way. Yes, you made a pot shot against charter in the same post, but you haven't gone after him with anything near the same tenacity. That attack also came very shortly after Wall-E suggested a connection between the two of you, which is a little convenient, or at the least a bit unfortunate.
I guess I should have put a hypothetical tag on my talk about how bad certain people would look after I got lynched. I don't think I'm resigned to being taken out this round. I was just trying to point out a flaw an a potential mafia plot.
I would really like to hear from our absent members as well.---
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EBWOP: Urr, so that's what I get for posting as soon as I wake up. I reread your post Nameless and it seems pretty fair as far as analysis goes. I'm not sure what I skipped before that it seemed mean spirited, or why I felt so strongly about responding to it in kind. Yeah, basically just an apology for not reading carefully the first time. We cool man, we cool.---
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True. Proof is too strong a word. It would just look bad for those first people who ganged up against me. We could find the same information by lynching Charter, and if he's scum, it's likely those same people are also scum. Again, not proof, but like you said, it's lends some credence to my argument.---
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I don't keep bringing up my suspicion out of nowhere. The conversation hasn't ended. People are still talking about it. If people were talking about other unrelated things, and I kept pointing a finger at you, that would be weird. I pointed a finger at you and it's stuck. People have asked me questions or commented on my position, and I've responded. If other people drop it, so will I, but my point against you stands.---
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Also, to be perfectly honest the position of all six of us (Kmd, Charter, Wall-E, Nameless, Stef, and myself) are pretty much understood at this point. Any of us continuing could be seen as needless conversation and repetition. The people who matter right now are Orange, Mana, Tony, Puta, Kiro, and Plum. It's time to get off the sidelines.---
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Kiro & Nameless: Yeah, I don't think Stef has any known reasons for his/her point of view. But he/she has made it pretty clear that they are going to vote for me anyways, so it seems like a waste of time to talk about unless he/she wants to change her mind.
Charter, what is your point exactly? Everybody in this game lies, Scum or Town. You have to keep some things close to the chest in this game because information is power. I'm not really sure what your point is. Are we supposed to trust you because you admitted to lying under a certain set of circumstances? What kind of Jack Sparrow philosophy are you testing now?---
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Would I be out of line to ask everyone (especially those who haven't contributed much) to put their current ideas into a few sentences? Just who you're voting for, the reason why, and your other suspicions. This way we can have a good read on where people are and help get those who are behind in posting get caught up.
For example, mine would be:
Voting: Charter for misleading posts regarding night kills and trying to defend himself with his own history of lying.
Suspicions: Kmd for taking quotes out of context. Kiro for suggesting doctors not protect.
Can we get one of these from everyone?---
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Plum: I know that my original idea against Charter was weak. Early vote count of 3 is not a whole lot, and the night kill argument might have just been a bad idea. Lord knows I had plenty of those myself. I might have switched my vote away from Charter (in fact, I did, to a No Lynch for a while) but I'm voting for him now because of the way he's defended his bad ideas. He gives no legitimate reasons for believing what he does. I've given good counterpoints, which he ignores. He said I was wrong, but gave no reasons why. Now he tries to defend himself with an odd philosophical smoke screen of "I've lied as town before, so I'm going to claim doc, and then pretend it doesn't mean anything. I'd love to be the scum you've accused me of being, because it sounds fun. I hope I get a chance to be that some day. So remember: Me, Charter, Town, Liar, Wants to be Scum, Isn't, Still a Liar". I feel like he felt the blade on his throat (despite never having more than three votes against him) and just started saying random things. The harder he pulls on this finger trap, the more stuck he seems in my mind.
Nameless: I don't want to make people skip over details, but for people like you and I, those details are out there to be read. A summation is good to make your point clear among all the details. Also, it's a really good way to get the others who haven't taken a stand yet make some kind of argument. We need new voices. I think there are certain votes out there left over from the random stage. Like Plum just did, those votes need to be turned into something useful and soon.---
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I'll kill two birds with one stone, answering both Plum and Charter in their similar questions.
My vote for Charter has not changed, it's grown. I still believe that Charter's Night Kill comments are meant to confuse. Yes, some people have disagreed, and I've given the concession that it may just be a bad opinion on your part Charter. Perhaps I voted for you for the wrong reasons at first. But now, being able to see your posts as a whole, you seem to sow misinformation. Or, at least, you try. You pretend to answer questions or counter arguments, but there's no meat on those bones. If all of this just turns out to be a massive collection of bad ideas, I'll apologize for being wrong. But since that's pretty much what you've attacked me for all game, I don't think you'll deserve it.
More than likely, I think you're scum, and you're trying to make people worried and confused. You exaggerate. You talk about lying so that people can't figure out what you want them to think. I have had a lot of reasons for voting for you, because you've given them. You change personalities a lot, but they all feel wrong somehow. All together, it seems like a scum who got unlucky when a new player targeted him way too early and has been panicked and scrambling ever since.---
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Your reasons for actually voting for me are pretty outdated.
- I gave up on the No Lynch idea a long time ago. It was very quickly made clear what a bad idea it was and where my own thinking went wrong.
- The only other reasons you give for voting for me are gone by the end of your own series of quotes. All that's left is that I felt Charter was misleading overall (not just the Night Kill thing), which I've given some good arguments for.---
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Stef: Fair enough. It just seemed like most people had accepted this as a mistake on my part. It's completely reasonable for someone to hold on to it as evidence I suppose. *mock lawyer voice* But I'll clear my name some day! I swear I will! *ahem*
Wall-E: What's going on? Ever since your "Hypocrite" comment it's like you aren't even trying. Are you attempting to suicide or something?---
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GnKoichi Goon
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Ditto. If we don't see a serious post from Tony, Mana, or Penguin by tomorrow morning, I think this would warrant a discussion.charter wrote:I really want the lurkers to start participating more. I'm getting the feeling that all the scum are among them as the townies pick themselves apart...---
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GnKoichi Goon
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Charter: Good job. When the other lurkers post you can vote for them, too. This is really going to encourage a discussion. Also, one of the people you said I left off the lurker list I mentioned with a different abbreviation. The other gave his reason for voting for me and defended it a little while ago. I disagree (obviously) and it could have been more in depth, but it was posted recently.
Orange: We really have too much quoting going on. The lurkers, yourself included, need to let their own ideas be heard. Even if you agree with someone else 100%, you should say it in your own words. That's just my take on it.---
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GnKoichi Goon
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Okay, so, the tomorrow I mentioned in my last post is now today. Can we start a discussion about a lurker lynch? I'm not entirely sold on the idea myself, but I think a fire needs to be lit for certain people.
Here's my quick analysis:
Wall-E, Nameless, Charter, and Myself have been pretty active all around.
Plum was less active, but recently made some very good posts and really contributed.
Animorpherv is new and should be given more time to catch up. Not a lot, but some.
Orangepenguin is inactive, but recently gave a quick opinion. Give a little time to flesh this idea out?
Kiro has been moderately active.
TonyMontana has been less active and has given almost no analysis. He promised to do so quite a while ago and I don't think he ever delivered.
Stef made the same promise more recently, and should be given a little time.
Kmd... I have trouble viewing without bias. About as active as Kiro, but I think his penchant for quoting leads to less actual content in his posts.
Mana_Ku is probably about as active as Kiro and Kmd, but she isn't voting for anyone right now, and there's a lot of evidence to work with. I think we need to see a Plum style post from her to see where she stands.
So, if we WE'RE going to do a lurker-lynch, Tony looks like the best candidate to me. But OP, Ani, Stef, and Mana (and maybe Kmd) are close as well, pending what they do soon.
What are people's thought on actually doing a lurker-lynch at all, and where would you disagree with my analysis on who would be a target for this?---
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GnKoichi Goon
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unvote, vote: Wall-E
This is with extremely great reluctance, but you're way out of line, man. Either you're actually this volatile a player, which could end up hurting town even if you don't intend to, or you're scum who got really defensive when the tables started to turn against him.
Kmd: I never said you were inactive. My comment about you was in regards to the content of your posts, and I even admitted that might be biased since I'm already suspicious of you.---
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GnKoichi Goon
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My new theory:
Wall-E and Charter are scum. They've done a good job of distancing themselves from each other for most of the game. The key to this? Charter quickly switching his vote AWAY from Wall-E once there were five votes against him. Then, when I voted for Wall-E, putting the total back to five, he brings his vote back to ME! He's voted for the last two people to put a vote on Wall-E, and now makes a claim that Wall-E (who he was voting for two days ago) is town, without any evidence.
Let's knock Wall-E out, and then when he's shown to be Scum, we can take Charter tonight or tomorrow.---
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GnKoichi Goon
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GnKoichi Goon
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Wall-E: I assume you're referring to me. Charter is the one who hasn't given reasons for his last two votes. My reasons were made extremely clear in posts 285 & 289. They're on this page. They may not have been lengthy arguments. They were concise. Pretending they aren't there isn't helping yours or Charter's case.---
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GnKoichi Goon
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Something interesting happened here. My vote against Wall-E was meant as a warning. I still had a somewhat town read on him at that point. I really appreciated his sticking up for me a little bit earlier in the game. I wanted to help him shake off this mood he had gotten in. I was worried he was going to draw more votes and get himself knocked off. So I voted for him, hoping that him being L-2 would get him out of the funk he's been in since his case against Nameless failed.
Then Charter voted for me without any reasons. This was the second time in a row Charter had voted for someone who had just put a vote on Wall-E, and directly before that HE had been voting for Wall-E himself.
Suddenly it made sense. I still believe Charter is scum, and now he had revealed his partner. He and Wall-E had set themselves up as against each other over the issue of, well, me, very early. They voted for each other to seal the deal. Why would scum vote for each other? But it probably looked like a safe bet back then, since I was a good candidate for our first Lynch. Then, Wall-E got a little sloppy in his Nameless argument, and drew a few votes. Ani's vote put Wall-E at L-2, so Charter pulled his vote, and tried to throw a quick vote at Ani (perhaps to scare the new player away from voting that way). Then I put my 'scare' vote on Wall-E, and Charter was forced to try to return the focus to me.
I'd much rather take Charter out, but it seems like the group is more willing to take Wall-E right now, and I'm very confident that they are scum buddies now.---
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GnKoichi Goon
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GnKoichi Goon
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