Mini 1762: Game Over
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
No, I'm pretty sure he did.
I honestly thought he was lying about the 1-shot commute even yesterday but I was pretty sure it was out of self-preservation. Thought he was still joat with last ability doctor instead of commute though.
But I know he probably wouldn't straight up lie to the end about who he checked especially when he knew he'd have a good chance of dying tonight. Though you can't trust him alive even as town he generally is careful not to mislead post-death. Saying joat when gs is more-or-less harmless in this scenario and doesn't really change much, whereas lying about actual results would be straight up careless and potentially jeopardize the game so I'm assuming he did check you two.
I do kind-of like how you pointed it out though?-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
Your reasoning isn't terrible but I think you're reading too much into playstyle for me and moi.
I mean I can understand you thinking MoI looks town, though it'd be wrong because if you're town he'd then be 80% scum unless it was gif, because I think moi's style is pretty analytical and he has insights and some contributions beyond what I'd expect from scum, though in reality he did try to misdirect the lynch and cast a lot of doubt onto RC. We should probably talk about the gr/syn thing though because I don't see anything against it being bussing. For most of the game they've been half-hearted/low commitment on it especially syndesis with her push and I think they stepped up when the pressure went on them and they got self-conscious but overall I didn't see it as too genuine. You could be right about gif though I remember townreading him heavily yesterday (and if you're right about gif that also would make you right about one of syn/moi, but eeeh).
But yeah it's pretty late and I should think about it tomorrow.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
Syn, you're asking if MoI re-evaluated his reads based on the flip(s) but technically you shouldn't care or want him to because he's scumreading me and yesterday you pushed me-gr as the scumteam-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
Okay, let's play a game.
Everyone vote between me and syndesis, though if you get me you have to get syndesis next day.
After that I'd recommend MoI though there's an outside chance he's just town playing really badly.
I don't mind using my life here if it gets scum lynched and tbh nobodies going to listen to what I say while they still suspect me anyways.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
I did re-read her. Bad assocation with GR, and nothing interesting with syndesis. Individually her votes make sense and I don't see anything wrong with her day 1-3.
Syndesis herself I already talked about but I'll summarise again. Bad jump off of GR's slot (before gr replaced) near the end of day 1 onto two others, apathetic d2. First serious push from her is onto GR mid day 3 at the point where scum can afford to bus. The push itself was weak af and didn't really pick up until people started suspecting/bringing attention to both of them.
I can talk about the list she posted today though, thats new. Weak reads on everyone to allow her to vote anyone, and notice how her reads on me is weaker than it should be when she was convinced of me/gr partners yesterday. If she was town and actually in doubt about my alignment I think she should be offended by what I'm saying (lynch her after me) but she straight up doesn't care which doesn't make sense. I'd only completely ignore someone saying what I'm saying if I was 100% they were scum but in her read she doesn't even say that but leaves it open to change when she "looks back at the d3 wagons".-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
I guess it could be GiF/syn though.
If MoI is scum at this point he's scum making more sense than any of the town.
Nino's town and probably kirroha but they're not really showing any depth of thought today with analysis or association. Nino especially is disappointing because as conf-town (that probably gets NK'd tonight) she should be playing her heart out today :/-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
In post 1854, MagnaofIllusion wrote:First if Rask actually is Town I’m peeved that he’s be so willing to roll over and try link lynches like this when we are only guaranteed two lynchs to get at least 1 scum. Especially given all I’ve had to say about why Synd doesn’t make much sense as a Golden partner based on how yesterday shook out.
If at the end of the day I'm wrong and we lose in lylo from the return lynch, I can still say I tried and look to see where I misread. It's way more preferable to take something I'm 90% on by trying to force a 1 for 1 than to step back and hope other people just lynch correctly after I'm gone (with this town my confidence is almost 0). Even if it's a mislynch none of you can really criticise me for that after you mislynch me; the game would be more or less a collective failure. I also feel forced into this because anything less memorable generally gets ignored after death and I'd rather be right/wrong (because if you are wrong you can learn from it) than essentially dying for nothing and having no real impact on the game.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
@MoI
Kirroha pushed the GR wagon the hardest by far and a brief jump doesn't really change that; day after day she brought it up when the town focus was elsewhere.
I don't see how you can scumread her for the VT thing either.
1. If someone says "VT claims don't prevent lynches" the implication is in general town don't stop for a VT claim, which I'd agree with. Saying this doesn't mean you personally will/won't lynch VT claims.
2. Even if you were right and she was being logically inconsistent (which I don't agree on), as far as I know being inconsistent with minor details doesn't = scum. You would have to explain why it's scummy; why would scum kirroha push gr super hard and then back off last minute for something like that? I actually think scum are more likely to be rigid and consistent about technical details because they always have their appearance in mind. I can understand saying someone is scum through substantial things like read inconsistencies or conveniently forgetting about relevant details to people they want lynched but something like that just looks NAI.
Hopefully she gets prodded/replaced though before it gets too close to deadline.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
In post 1876, implosion wrote:GR was also pressuring synd long before d3. GR's play looks more like scum who was somewhat-frantically trying to swing the easiest mislynch (synd) while still fossing a buddy (rask). It really looks like a classic instance of vote-a-townie fos-a-buddy so that he can push for the mislynch while still appearing to maintain distance from a teammate.
Alright, so how are these two not interchangeable?
GR's play looks more like scum who was somewhat-frantically trying to swing the easiest mislynch (synd) while still fossing a buddy (rask) [What you say]
GR's play looks more like scum who was somewhat-frantically trying to swing the easiest mislynch (rask) while still fossing a buddy (syn) [this, until it was no longer viable]
You're framing it as though there was a huge difference in effort from GR for me vs syn. Rather he seemed willing to vote both (and technically would have had to for the sake of keeping his story straight) and we don't know how yesterday would have played out if there were more people willing to go for that vote.
I'm pretty sure the only reason my lynch didn't happen yesterday was that RC (and someone else I think) were strongly opposed to it. I'm also confident that if syn and gr both after all their exchanges went on me they'd have been utterly shafted by my flip especially when them bussing was already speculated even then.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
MoI.
Let's say I'm kirroha. I slip that I'm VT and when I'm wagoned I say in my defence it would be a dumb thing to crumb as scum because it wouldn't help when getting lynched. That's fair. She's saying she thinks scum usually claim PRs to save themselves.
Now she has her scumread to L-1. GR claims VT. She said earlier she expects scum to claims PRs, so is it that much of a shock if she's wary of a VT claim?
I'm not saying it makes her town either (I think her actions throughout do that), I just think you're basing your read too heavily off of what is a more or less inconsequential detail.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
I honestly don't think kirroha is the type of player who would hard bus a player day 1 for being dead-weight. Personality aside I'm not sure she would come to the conclusion that's an optimal play.
Bussing that stopped on replacement implies it's because of the player sucking and not because you wanted to hard bus for the sake of bussing (which is rare day 1 anyways), but if I don't think kirroha would have decided that and I really don't think the previous owners of the slot would have suggested it then I think it'd have to be a plan from the third scum, which is a) weird/unlikely because he/she would have made a plan for use purely for their two partners b) would narrow it a little bit (definitely not rubixxx for example). But I don't think so.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
In post 1882, implosion wrote:Because he was trying to push for a synd lynch while fossing you, rather than trying to push for a you lynch while fossing synd... I do see a big difference in effort from GR for you vs syn on the last day. In fact his very first post of the day put synd alone in his bottom tier on his scumreads. It's a moot point that he technically would have had to vote you and even the way you phrased that feels like it came from a mindset of him having been scum with you.
I have also thought synd's play today has looked much more genuine than yours. I'm really not buying the "lynch me then syndesis" narrative. It feels constructed.
There isn't actually anything I can say to this. I guess I'm just not genuine!-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
whichever of you are town I want you to rethink this game very well after my (or possibly kirroha's) flip if it gets to d5 (modkills+ml could end it here)
I really don't know how I could save the game at this point if its going to deadline with 2 town wagoned and modkills potentially coming in.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
I think you're town but the reality is one of us is misreading this game and if your list is me/gif/kirro I'm going to assume you are.
I mean technically one of gif or kirro could be third scum but if you're going to go into the rest of this game giving moi and especially syn a free pass when I'm 100% it's at least syn possibly both then we're going to have a bad time.
If I'm wrong on syn or kirro I guess I'll eat my words in the postgame but promise me you'll reconsider things after I flip or kirro does if she's town (mafia will have to nk nino slot). If it gets to d5 lylo it's looking rough with how divided everyone is this game.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
Righteo.
For when I'm gone; although it doesn't look like you guys would value my reads much anyways
syn (almost certainly scum)
MoI (probably scum)
GiF/kirroha/implosion is weird because logically I know if it isn't syn/MoI then one of these has to be scum but I don't know which.
top teams are gr/syn/MoI >>> gr/syn/gif > gr/syn/kirr (unlikely)
and I have moi/gif ruled out from their exchange and kirro/gif ruled out from ink's earlier interaction with kirro
I was going to rule out imp with some for hard defending (jump off TG d1 looked too obvious to be from scum) but in some of his games he actually just hard defends his partners so ehhh, strong townread his d4 posts though.
Also I really wanted to see if anyone would take my chain lynch; I assumed if syn was actually town then scum would probably accept the premise and try to use it to get free lylo mislynch (or more likely lynch syn and then me in lylo). Everyone pretty much rejected it except for kirro who was pushing me/syn as the scumteam(??) and didn't really accept/reject.
Technically being lynched here has slight value because if I was alive lylo I'd probably be lynched there instead and game over; only 2 of you are scum yet 5/6 scumread me so I know that's 3-4/4 town willing. I think it might be actually better in a practical sense to end the day early to buy more time for replacements/delay modkills but I'm not sure on the mechanics of that; I think kirro's town and I doubt anyone except for me or her would get lynched at this point d4 so there's not much point delaying things imo.
That's everything of value I have, good luck.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
oh yeah, syn/gif is mostly because he used gr's post to defend syn at the same time as me; the expectation for one of those posts with 4 listed would actually be to usually have a scumpartner in there. I still think syn/MoI is way better if only because Gif's actually been furthering town wincon with massclaim, co-op with RC and defending me whereas MoI doubtcasted RC and wanted him lynched(while defending GR), discredits the fuck out of me and seems more or less apathetic about my lynch and in general what the lynch target is.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
hey dwlee
deadlines soon and its looking like its down to either me or kirroha (who is afk)
With the inactivity/apathy I think trying for anything else will probably end up in another nolynch like day 1-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
Oh and you're probably getting nightkilled tonight too because vig with claimed kill in a game with gunsmith is pretty much conftown.
lol-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
I can see actually see it being syn/implosion now
VOTE: implosion
You guys refused to wagon syn but can we at least get this going? Actually have some time that we can use if we aren't super apathetic and lazy-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
The only thing that makes it a little weird is how they push me together whereas scum might hesitate to do that.
But then again it's not actually saying anything (subverted?) because 5/6 slots wanted me dead earlier so that technically applies to every team without GiF.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
idk how town-syn would be satisfied reading me on mostly vibes after our last game where she mislynched me on 'vibes' and we lost.
She doesn't seem uncertain about her read because she isn't really engaging me or looking for scum elsewhere, but she hasn't really pushed me hard either and just reads super apathetic (i.e. scum).-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
Syndesis can you give full reads? If you're town you're all I'm seeing from you for the past few days is a weak "mostly vibes" push on me and like almost nothing regarding anyone else. What are your townreads and other scumreads; if you're doing this mostly PoE then who are you PoEing out/what is your process?-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
In post 1976, MagnaofIllusion wrote:For the record this is stupid. Not the linking of pairs mind you – the concept we would lynch into Implosion / GiF who are Gunsmith clears before we get confirmation (via second scum non-Doctor flip) that one could be a false clear.
You're saying it's stupid to lynch in gunsmith clears essentially because its lower percentage, but realistically if it is syn/imp and people refuse to do syn there wouldn't actually be a better move.
Although I was also wondering if anyone would express interest just to see associations with imp and sort-of kirroha (cw-esque).
@Dwlee ink is GiF and rubixxx is MoI-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
Entrance is okay, asks questions. I actually liked her vote on me because I thought she'd want to engage me after our last game and use the experience to read me but she didn't really do that or follow it up. Went from voting me to voting who I was voting after I said I townread her which was weird but not terrible.
553 puts TG to l-2 after someone unvoted (slot was getting replaced + deadline wasn't close)
664 unvotes when it's put to L-1 to vote the person who did the l-1'ing (ink/gif)
749 votes kill
When GR replaces TG syn doesn't say a single thing to/about GR until day 2 though he was the leading wagon
848 (still day 1) votes IAI.
Not much else until deadline passes, passed the deadline does tj vote.
Day 1 review: low content earlyday, when GR's slot gets wagoned the first time and replaced she votes him after someone unvotes but jumps off to try to wagon 3 different people. Isn't explicitly townreading the slot, not interacting with it at all, and pushes the other wagons but doesn't tell people not to vote this one.
One of the three votes (TJ) she expressed interest in voting TJ before but KTS and IAI came out of nowhere (KTS was a reaction test if you believe 810 815). I don't get the IAI one that close to deadline considering TJ had votes on him; she went into deadline not going back to TJ until the deadline was already passed; the thread was locked late since mod was afk. If I was in her pos I wouldn't have stopped voting TJ (her #1 scumread that day) when he was a potential lynch for deadline, and I would either be for or against the TG/GR lynch. If against it I'd tell people why he's town and try to redirect, if for it I'd obviously vote and stay and try to push it. If indifferent/null you should be voting it at that point just because deadline was hours away and you want to avoid nolynch as town.
Also looking at this I notice ink putting TG to L-1 which I really like for the slot (GiF).
Day 2
1037 1122 rule of three suggests there's a scum in here esp in the latter two, and I think it's syn.
GR votes syn but it's just the first vote; gr syn are fine with beeboy lynch but not on it, which is conspicuous for syn because she was really scumreading that slot earlier.
also GR actually casts shade on ink again here by questioning townreads on him.
Day 3
already talked about this. Syn does vote GR though GR goes off of syn to 'compromise' with a lynch on me.
Syn doesn't really push it and GR pushes it while voting me. As syn/gr get more scumread and it looks like one of the two will be lynched anyways they actually interact and start casing each other.
I think at that point it's day 3 and they're both scumread and thinking one will be lynched anyways they bus like this so whichever one survives looks good. I also respect RC's opinion on this when he says he saw it as a bussing interaction (considering he lynched GR). I think it's also a characteristic of bussing to act really convinced in it more-so than town usually is, and particularly for syndesis who's been wishy-washy af for everthing else this game I don't really buy it.
In general aside from the posts d3 on GR which are different from all her others, it's low content and there's nothing that I can actually look at and say that's a reasoned, nuanced town perspective. Everyone else at least has their moments but apart from the GR syn thing which I think is bussing and constructed I don't see her having done scumhunting. Even if you don't see it as a bus can you give me a reason you're townreading her?-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
In post 1986, Raskolnikov wrote:I've already said most of this though.
On the bright side I feel better about GiF after doing that.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
Dwlee thoughts on what I said about syn?
Also if you can leave parting notes:
Who do you think is scum if kirroha flips town?
Who do you think is scum if kirroha flips scum?
I'll hammer after you answer or you can do it in your answering posts-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
I generally hate making big cases because it's a ton of work and I never convince people with them, except when I end up completely wrong on them anyways. None of you were in open 627 or mini 1766 :/
One day I wanna be an AtE god that reads everyone on gut and doesn't use standard logic or cases to win the game.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
I think that if you're scum you almost have to put a scumpartner in there among the four.
If I were you and townreading syn I would actually consider it being me rather than all four being town, although that's just for the post in isolation and not regarding anything else.
I think it's a huge scum association tell to soft-bus and be "suspicious" of a partner while not actually trying for their lynch (the best association being when/if they then leave that wagon for no good reason when it gets close to lynch), and that scum generally want their partners in a null or scum sort of area because they feel like it leaves a bad tell to have them townread but not the scummiest day 1/2 because that would force you to push and possibly lynch them.-
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015