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Post #918 (isolation #1) » Fri Apr 08, 2016 5:21 pm
Postby Titus »
@Farmer, Yes. RC and I just finished a game with scum KT. He's spammy and very trolley as scum. See Open 527. Jeanne's posts weaken that but KT having nine posts is town indicative to me.
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Post #975 (isolation #4) » Tue Apr 12, 2016 4:08 pm
Postby Titus »
VOTE: Max
I think we might be voting scum v scum, but in case I am wrong, I want pressure on both wagons to force people to decide to pick one or push elsewhere. We got too many prod dodges.
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Post #1145 (isolation #7) » Sun Apr 17, 2016 2:01 pm
Postby Titus »
I am thinking Max is scum here based on wagon jumping. The clumsy wagon remained static while people jumped off Max. If Clumsy is scum, there are hard core bussers there.
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Post #1195 (isolation #9) » Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:49 am
Postby Titus »
Hey, looks like we need Max Nos Huntress Johnny and Shaddow to break this tie.
That's about half the game deliberately avoiding major wagons.
Huge red flag here. Why is that? Can someone tell me why players (other than those on VLA) were not posting major wagons or pushing anything according to my quick skim of the VCs?
My headspace is that Max was a scum wagon that failed to take hold. People didn't scumhunt much after I got back from my Vla though.
Where are you at?
Why?
I do not see any case that you have supported or placed for that slot. What makes his wagon scummy?
The fact you're posting this rather than pushing who you think is scum or scumhunting.
The group was presented with two wagons. One took off and the other didn't. Why? Why did the game stall with Maxous's wagon but Clumsy's wagon went through when Maxous has done nothing?
It strongly suggests Maxous is scum as well. Even in the rare event I'm wrong, a lot of the game state reveals itself in a Max flip.
Overall, a Max wagon is an excellent place to be until he proves otherwise.
Why aren't you pushing a wagon but instead derailing scumhunting?
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Post #1284 (isolation #14) » Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:59 pm
Postby Titus »
@FAQ2, I am scumhunting. Figuring out the game state D1 , like I described, is scumhunting. I want to know Max's alignment.
There's little need to slog through 40 pages of vitriol in most replace ins. It's controversial but most replace catchups just result in peacocking and rehashing everything that came before and getting nothing done. Only if players highlight specific things is it usually wort the hassle.
You are not scumhunting here. Your questions aren't seeking alignment. Rather, the primary purpose seems to be to discouraging wagoning to uncover information.
Why not let Max defend himself and let his slot sort himself out? You're derailing investigations without stating a townread on Max. Why?
In post 1283, Lowell wrote:@froot, re: questions- either I ignored them because they're dumb or I forgot. remind me what you asked.
Waaaa, Lowell, I don't have time to do this just now. I (and others) mentioned it a few times. Did you notice when we were asking you? Right now I'd be more interested in why you didn't answer at the time than the answers to the questions.
In post 1281, Titus wrote:
The group was presented with two wagons. One took off and the other didn't. Why? Why did the game stall with Maxous's wagon but Clumsy's wagon went through when Maxous has done nothing?
It strongly suggests Maxous is scum as well.
Even in the rare event I'm wrong, a lot of the game state reveals itself in a Max flip.
Overall, a Max wagon is an excellent place to be until he proves otherwise.
(my bold)
I think this is a fair interpretation of events although I disagree with the idea of lynching Max for the info. Max didn't respond to my questions until I pushed him on it. Could be that he felt like he didn't need to because he was feeling particularly secure. Although, this is fair enough because it really didn't take hold. If that's because he's scum and the other members were pushing the Clumsy wagon, I don't know.
I do think that's what happened. When I said pick Clumsy or Max, everyone picked Clumsy. I had no case on either of them. I hadn't read. So why would one be more popular than the other? Because Maxous is probably scum.
I'm not saying we should lynch Maxous to verify it. I'm just saying it's a very low risk lynch that has upside even if wrong.
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Post #1289 (isolation #16) » Sun Apr 24, 2016 4:14 am
Postby Titus »
In post 1286, Maxous wrote:I would say the nosferatu kill would implicate Lowell the most to be honest.
He was the only person nos was really against.
In post 1266, Lowell wrote:I'm with this thinking, and I take the blame.
VOTE: max
^
This was a pretty poor vote anyway.
sheeping titus and "taking blame" for a mislynch he didn't actually hard-push sounds off.
I would still say huntress is scummy, she seemed pretty content to let the mislynch go through without getting her hands dirty so to speak.
In post 1269, JohnnyFarrar wrote:For me it's the willingness to believe what's his name was just busy instead of lurker scum but not that other person. Makes her reads seem arbitrary.
I've mentioned 3-4 times that the scum-read on huntress is not a lurker lynch
it's because of her struggle and unwillingness to give and explain reads.
In post 1285, Froot Loop wrote:Max didn't respond to my questions until I pushed him on it. Could be that he felt like he didn't need to because he was feeling particularly secure.
because you're asking me to defend a lot of BS that Jake wrote.
I can't, I would simply suggest, just look at previous games from himself - you will see largely the same behaviour.
So, you've doubtcasted three or four slots, but what of this is actually supposed to determine alignment? Especially when you didn't vote anyone here.
In post 1292, JohnnyFarrar wrote:I saw you respond once to the idea when I posited it here, but that was hardly a defense from the accusation.
Don't worry about it.
I was tired and being a bit snippy.
Maybe I wasn't clear before but I think it's scummy because she has struggled to come up with content to give. I don't think it's case where she's just lurking, I think suspect she
can't
come up with much which would indicate a scum struggling with the game.
i'll vote lowell though because i'm really not inclined to just ignore the nos night-kill.
People will argue WIFOM but nos was not an obvious kill nor a universal strong town-read so i'm inclined to think there was a particular reason for it.
Not like Lowell has been a shining beacon of town play regardless
Lowell - some people asked you questions yesterday but you haven't answered.
This is an annoying response to a call to action
Titus do you ever get tired of explaining when you don't re-read a thread?
Fack2 you either seem to not understand the way Titus is analyzing d1 or you're just willingly ignoring it but this lil tussle you two are having doesn't seem to be going anywhere favorable for you in my eyes
In post 1286, Maxous wrote:I would still say huntress is scummy, she seemed pretty content to let the mislynch go through without getting her hands dirty so to speak.
Strikes me as one of those 'damned if you do damned if you don't' situations, because I can just as easily imagine you saying something like 'she used deadline as an excuse to vote for that mislynch' had she voted
In post 1286, Maxous wrote:I've mentioned 3-4 times that the scum-read on huntress is not a lurker lynch
it's because of her struggle and unwillingness to give and explain reads.
I saw you respond once to the idea when I posited it here, but that was hardly a defense from the accusation.
Titus any update on Max thoughts after seeing him post a bit?
I'll update when I'm actually able to talk to him.
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Post #1315 (isolation #19) » Mon Apr 25, 2016 5:14 pm
Postby Titus »
In post 1303, Roshar wrote:I'm really curious as to why Nos was NK'd. Did they crumb? Otherwise kinda nonstrategic. I'm not gonna bother with wifom with this (i.e nos voted lowell).
@Huntress, care to share your re-reads of other people?
In post 1145, Titus wrote:I am thinking Max is scum here based on wagon jumping. The clumsy wagon remained static while people jumped off Max. If Clumsy is scum, there are hard core bussers there.
@Titus, your early day 2 vote, was this still what warranted it?
Yes, like I told Johnny, I need to speak wit Maxous to sort him further. It's a good starting point.
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Post #1380 (isolation #26) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 3:38 pm
Postby Titus »
In post 1379, JohnnyFarrar wrote:Mixed alignment neighbors always catches me by surprise, but lemme think. Scum neighbor claims, nothing happens. Town neighbor claims, dies. Good???
And why would a town neighbor necessarily die given the natural suspicion that would fall on a slot that claimed neighbor given Nos's flip?
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Post #1384 (isolation #27) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 4:23 pm
Postby Titus »
In post 1089, Roshar wrote:In terms of Clumsy's actual content, I don't feel better about it. It's more him feeling bad about being a liability. That parts kinda getting to me. B/c that would be the correct town response to being falsely accused as town. But shouldn't there be some anger and bitterness too? Like 'Screw you guys, I hope it hurts when I flip town?'
Now, on to the actual content. I don't like how his read on me changed. Reading something the first time and thinking it's town, then going back and thinking it's scummy, is a thing. But vice-versa, reading something and finding it scummy the first time, then upon a reread thinking it's town, is just never a thing that has occurred to me. Which makes me think his read on me the first time was empty and going with the flow of things.
He gives lukewarm reads without backing them up and easily retracts them. His read on froot has changed as well, and it's almost making me feel like he gave his original town read on Froot just to appease us.
But his tone is making me hesitate.
Input anyone? Mhs, Apf, replacements maybe?
What do you think Lowell?
Yeah, I'm inclined to think now that I know the specific post in question that this isn't scum looking for a specific reaction given that he's also asking from the other slots as well.
In post 1379, JohnnyFarrar wrote:Mixed alignment neighbors always catches me by surprise, but lemme think. Scum neighbor claims, nothing happens. Town neighbor claims, dies. Good???
And why would a town neighbor necessarily die given the natural suspicion that would fall on a slot that claimed neighbor given Nos's flip?
I mean that same suspicion makes us question everything they say until they die so what's the point?
That's an overdramatic reaction there. Suspicion =/= auto equal death and I'm the queen of the tunnel. :/
@Loop, not necessarily in favor of a claim, just questioning JF's position on the point. The question of whether or not the neighbor should claim is a schrodinger's cat. If the neighbor or neighbors are scum, then scum already know who they are. Thus, nothing is lost. If the neighbor or neighbors are town, then scum don't know anything and a claim helps them.
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Post #1387 (isolation #29) » Wed Apr 27, 2016 4:43 pm
Postby Titus »
In post 1386, Roshar wrote:No, I don't completely think my vote on Clumsy is a last minute hammer either. His quick read changes at end of day added more reason for me to hammer. But just to clarify, I would have lynched him regardless if the max wagon didn't take, as he was also a scum read.
If I didn't want to take the responsibility for the Clumsy lynch, I wouldn't have hammered. Consider my reason why I backed off the Clumsy wagon for some time and pursued other reads. All the people voting him didn't bother. I could have easily not bothered either and fit right in. To say I left the wagon so I wouldn't take the blame for the Clumsy wagon is like saying, "ahah! you felt hesitant about lynching town! You must have done it on purpose so you can use it!" Like it's damned if you, damned if you don't. You don't provide me an option if I was town and was actually hesitant.
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Post #1411 (isolation #30) » Thu Apr 28, 2016 2:38 am
Postby Titus »
I think Maxous is flailing scum here, looking for things to attack. He sees that his initial offer on Lowell is gaining little traction, so he sheep's the first case stated by someone else on Huntress. His big deal is Huntress didn't comment. Yet, Maxous completely ignored the allegation by Lowell that Roshar was fishing for votes on him.
In post 1430, Froot Loop wrote:
@Titus - I agree that Max is still scummy. He's voted for Huntress before so this is going back to a previous thought. He seems kind of apathetic and isn't responding much to the suspicion on him. This is subjective, so I don't think it's AI, but it's not doing anything to change my opinion.
In post 1411, Titus wrote:I think Maxous is flailing scum here, looking for things to attack. He sees that his initial offer on Lowell is gaining little traction, so he sheep's the first case stated by someone else on Huntress. His big deal is Huntress didn't comment. Yet, Maxous completely ignored the allegation by Lowell that Roshar was fishing for votes on him.
You mean he accused Huntress of not analyzing my interaction with Lowell, yet he didn't analyze Lowell himself - who was his scum read. If that's what you meant then, I can see your point. I.e He should be analyzing a slot he finds scummy himself. Although I've learned town can find people scummy for things they've unconsciously done themselves. So, on the whole, I'd be hesitant to derive much out of this.
What I thought was scummy was that despite Huntress not commenting on anything, and was essentially prod-dodging, he made it seem like she was purposely avoiding commenting on me.
I'll respectfully disagree on the first paragraph.
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Post #1469 (isolation #38) » Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:10 pm
Postby Titus »
In post 1460, Lowell wrote:@titus- I don't understand the "max is flailing scum" here. I don't see it. And I almost always think everyone is flailing.
Can we get a lynch here or what. rosh is correct, but I'll pretty much lynch anyone save for titus, huntress, APL, and maybe one or two others I'm forgetting right now.
I don't get how you don't see it. Max just seems to cherry pick whatever and ignore what doesn't fit. Kinda surprised you don't see it.
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Post #1509 (isolation #41) » Tue May 03, 2016 1:53 pm
Postby Titus »
Ok, I will want to make a couple of checks but right now I think we need to look at the players who did not push any wagon heavily D1 since both flipped town.
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Post #1513 (isolation #42) » Tue May 03, 2016 2:17 pm
Postby Titus »
In post 1510, mhsmith0 wrote:@Titus: Hmm, I think that potentially makes sense. Need to mull it over. That said, given that it was town v town, why wouldn't wolves have wanted to take the opportunity to look town by pushing a lynch at a time when the outcome didn't much matter?
PS One other thing I think we now can be confident on: we're almost certainly in 10v3 (no SK, no multiball). I'm not entirely sure how that helps us just yet, but at the least I think it does help narrow the game state.
It's not impossible for my analysis to be wrong but why would the wolves be pushing in an apathetic state when town just made two mislynches? I think it's more likely that wolves are just exclusively pushing bad ideas because we didn't FoS/vote them.
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Post #1520 (isolation #43) » Tue May 03, 2016 3:15 pm
Postby Titus »
@MrSmith0, while VCA won't be 100% accurate, it's still worth laying the groundwork and establishing what we think scum were doing and appealing from there.
In post 1520, Titus wrote:@MrSmith0, while VCA won't be 100% accurate, it's still worth laying the groundwork and establishing what we think scum were doing and appealing from there.
I think it's unlikely to help if we start with an idea of what scum might have been doing and then working backwards. I think VCA can help but most likely when it's compared with what a player's been saying or their attitudes towards the wagons in the game. There's so many possible patterns of scum behaviour that starting from that side is pretty difficult.
Then we have fundamental differences on the point and function of VCA. What people say is charisma]. Who benefits can be NAI.
I think it's relevant that there weren't very many other options yesterday apart from Max although I guess Lowell was the counterwagon. A lot of the votes on Max in D2 were the same as D1. It's possible that scum saw/understood the pressure on Max, and the willingness to lynch him, and saw that they didn't need to do anything to try to get a mislynch.
That makes me recontextualise Lowell's push on Roshar, FA_Q2's questioning of Titus and APF's vote on FA_Q2. I'd also say that Johnny and Titus' behaviour in D2 fits this description of possible scum play from reading D2 in this context. Garmr came in and talked about APF but it was a little late in the day (because of the replacement, totally null) to be considered for this point.
Also, to continue rabbiting on about the neighbour speculation - this was discussion that wouldn't actually lead to a lynch or present another option apart from Max. So it's totally free for scum to discuss without worrying about derailing a mislynch. I'm not saying it's AI (Max talked about it as well, so obviously) but that's another point.
About Lowell's Roshar push - he voted for Max, Max called him out, then Lowell pushed Roshar. Considering the pressure on Max, I think it's an unlikely scum play to move onto Roshar. There seems to be more value and it'd be legitimate to continue pushing Max.
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Post #1530 (isolation #45) » Tue May 03, 2016 5:38 pm
Postby Titus »
@Johnny, Talk to me about Huntress. I hate the reasons she's pushing out but Huntress was someone I considered pushing today. For instance, the wagoning for telling us we're stupid is bad since we have groupthink issues. Yet, Huntress slot did little D1.
Also, to continue rabbiting on about the neighbour speculation - this was discussion that wouldn't actually lead to a lynch or present another option apart from Max.
So it's totally free for scum to discuss without worrying about derailing a mislynch.
You keep referring to it as a, 'discussion'. It was one comment. You keep making it seem like I spent so much time discussing this like I wanted to avoid actual discussion that would lead to a lynch.
You didn't refer to me here specifically. But you and I were engaged primarily in this discussion for a lot of D2. So, why are you surprised that I'm considering that I'm part of who you're speaking about?
You made one comment. Max commented, smith commented, Titus and JF commented and I commented. Between 1372 and 1383 definitively, there was a discussion about the neighbour. I'm talking about you and others as well.
I think it's possible scum would've seen the likelihood of a Max lynch at the beginning of the day and let it go through. If that's the case, Lowell's push against you is unlikely scum play because it's introducing a new ML candidate when there's already a perfectly good one. The same with FA_Q2 (with the addition that he was questioning Titus on Max, who turned out to be town) and APF.
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Post #1537 (isolation #49) » Tue May 03, 2016 5:56 pm
Postby Titus »
Again, all the premises you're stating FL suppose that all the candidates are mislynches. We know in general scum didn't want a major mislynch to be pushed. That doesn't stop weakass scum theatre or scum pushing a weakass lynch on a townie hoping nothing happens.
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Post #1543 (isolation #52) » Tue May 03, 2016 6:02 pm
Postby Titus »
In post 1542, JohnnyFarrar wrote:I don't actually have a vote in mind, otherwise I'd be pushing it. The people who I probably won't vote are Titus, Froot, Gar, and Lowell. Anyone else is porbably worth voting at some point, but I dontnhave any really clear reads atm
*squints at reads list, looks at D1* Why on everyone?
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Post #1545 (isolation #53) » Tue May 03, 2016 6:11 pm
Postby Titus »
In post 1544, Froot Loop wrote:I was thinking about the likelihood of Lowell's play as scum. I hadn't thought about them both being scum but it's a possibility. At the moment I'd say it's unlikely based on the discussion. It's also possible that Lowell is town and Roshar is scum or that they're both town.
I'm not making the assumption that the other pushes are on town players. There's nothing AI to me about being the target of the push. I'm thinking that a scum player might not push another player when there's a clear ML candidate. I think Lowell was a counterwagon yesterday, so I don't think this applies as much to votes on him so I looked elsewhere.
Scum might push if there's another mislynch candidate. That's not true. Scum can grandstand... look at how bad this wagon is and I'm over here, distance or just generally be unable to make content.
I wouldn't expect them to join up on other wagons to make any viable, but the small individual wagons are not AI without a scum flip.
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Post #1548 (isolation #54) » Tue May 03, 2016 6:29 pm
Postby Titus »
In post 1547, Froot Loop wrote:@Titus - do you think Lowell was doing any of those things? Or that there's any reason to think one is more likely than another?
I get your point about the individual pushes and encouraging the counterwagon. I was thinking it'd be easy to jump on the Lowell wagon but the individual points are making a stand when it'd be unnecessary.
I don't know yet. I townread Lowell based on his play currently though. Based on the VCs, impossible to tell.
In post 1542, JohnnyFarrar wrote:I don't actually have a vote in mind, otherwise I'd be pushing it. The people who I probably won't vote are Titus, Froot, Gar, and Lowell. Anyone else is porbably worth voting at some point, but I dontnhave any really clear reads atm
*squints at reads list, looks at D1* Why on everyone?
I don't think I understand the question
Roshar wrote:@Johnny, why do you think Garmr is town?
Because I know garmr is stubborn enough to do some stupid bullshit rather than hammer someone he knows is town, so I'm betting on him not knowing Max was town
I was asking why on all of those while Roshar asked just on Garmr.
Shit.
Fixed! The post in question was deleted on request.
~Ircher
Last edited by Ircher on Wed May 04, 2016 9:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
In post 1509, Titus wrote:Ok, I will want to make a couple of checks but right now I think we need to look at the players who did not push any wagon heavily D1 since both flipped town.
I find this rather interesting. You think scum is off the wagons that flipped town? That makes little to no sense at all. It also backs people into a corner - you are scum because you did not push a town flip/you are scum because you did push a town flip.
In post 1510, mhsmith0 wrote:@Titus: Hmm, I think that potentially makes sense. Need to mull it over. That said, given that it was town v town, why wouldn't wolves have wanted to take the opportunity to look town by pushing a lynch at a time when the outcome didn't much matter?
PS One other thing I think we now can be confident on: we're almost certainly in 10v3 (no SK, no multiball). I'm not entirely sure how that helps us just yet, but at the least I think it does help narrow the game state.
It's not impossible for my analysis to be wrong but why would the wolves be pushing in an apathetic state when town just made two mislynches? I think it's more likely that wolves are just exclusively pushing bad ideas because we didn't FoS/vote them.
This assumes that they were pushed by town. How do you know that info?
The first is a misunderstanding or misrep. You can be on an wagon without pushing it. I'm looking at more apathetic shit.
I'm assuming people play to wincon. If that's not true, then scumhunting is useless and we might as well play darts.
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Post #1576 (isolation #57) » Wed May 04, 2016 10:59 am
Postby Titus »
Roshar, I'm a little concerned about you not moving your vote so early. Yet, I'm struggling to find a reason that I agree with in your ISO. I think Huntress is scummy though but I am not wanting to vote something that the only person pushing it is giving reasons that make me feel uneasy. Can you rephrase or rearticulate your push on Huntress without quotes (I'll ask for verification if necessary)?
Titus (0) -
Mhsmith (0) -
Huntress (0) -
Froot (0) -
Pisskop (0) -
Max (2) - Froot, Titus
Maverick (0) -
Shaddow (0) -
Nos (1) - Rosh
Plain (0) -
Lowell (1) - Nos
Clumsy (5) - Lowell, Maverick, Plain, Mhsmith, Shaddow
Rosh (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (4) - Clumsy, Pisskop, Huntress, Max
Day 1 will end on April 19, 2016 5:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-04-19 17:30:00).
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Clumsy will be V/LA til April 17.
Maverick requested replacement.
Pisskop will be force-replaced.
Titus was prodded.
We know Clumsy is town. Max is town too. We have Pisskop, Huntress and Max who are refusing to do anything here. Huntress later takes a stand but doesn't really push anything.
Given we know that Clumsy and Max are town, Pisskop and Huntress are the ideal places to sort next.