Mini 1782 Game Over

[mhsmith0]

/confirm

[mhsmith0]

can we policy lynch kaintepes?

Well, clearly we CAN, the question is whether we SHOULD. Or whether it'd just be fun to do for the lulz I guess

[mhsmith0]

can we policy lynch kaintepes?

Well, clearly we CAN, the question is whether we SHOULD. Or whether it'd just be fun to do for the lulz I guess

Thanks, coach.

pre-vote smith

Come, sheeple.

Guess it's to... roll the dice

[mhsmith0]

No, RC, Jake is obvtown.

2. No provable randomness! This especially includes dice tags!

Guess it's to... roll the dice

Yet another reason why this needs pre-rope.

That doesn't count!
~Ircher

Lowell's avatar is dice. Then again if I have to explain the joke there is no joke . Also should have been "guess it's time to..."

[mhsmith0]

wrt the policy lynch debate, did people think RC was serious with that suggestion on Kain? I read that as a joke/reaction test.

[mhsmith0]

Only to the extent that shaddowez was absolutely going to the mat for his bud, smith.

Lowell's avatar is dice. Then again if I have to explain the joke there is no joke . Also should have been "guess it's time to..."

The missing word threw me off for a minute, but I really hope I wasn't the only one that actually got it.

??? do you consider that "going to the mat"?

[mhsmith0]

APS is just branching around the bushes

he basically called half of the playerlist scum right now ...

Not sure APS is scum just yet. May just be weird. I suppose there's a meta read worth digging into there, but I'm not going to bother tonight. Maybe sometime over the weekend.

[mhsmith0]

btw Roshar, that series is great. Sanderson is one of my favorite authors.

[mhsmith0]

@APF: Absolutly. Also, RC is obv scum for reasons too secret for me to publicly explain.

[mhsmith0]

FYI my availability this weekend will be sporadic. Family stuff going on.

[mhsmith0]

@APF: Absolutly. Also, RC is obv scum for reasons too secret for me to publicly explain.

Apf, nos, clumsy: is there a reason why you thought this post was serious?

[mhsmith0]

@APF: Absolutly. Also, RC is obv scum for reasons too secret for me to publicly explain.

Apf, nos, clumsy: is there a reason why you thought this post was serious?

why you posted it?

Why wouldn't i?

[mhsmith0]

Post was sarcastic. I thought it was obvious sarcasm. As far as why I'd post a sarcastic response instead of just "no I don't see the town slip and no I don't see the cause for an early scum read of rc (implied by 75)", basically I felt like it. I mean, I really did think it was obvious sarcasm.

The whole "obv scum but the reason is a secret" was basically obvious bullshit (with a bit of a semi serious complaint of people reading without saying why). I kind of figured the flagrant bullshit in the second part would make it clear the first part was non serious as well, i.e. I did NOT see what he was talking about.

I guess I was kind of hoping someone would be lazy about reading it and say something dumb (and apf's unvote may qualify)... But basically everyone who engaged with it apparently took it as serious. Which makes me think I was a lot less obvious about it than I thought.

Long story short, if my sarcasm is that non obvious, I'll slap a on it or something if/when I use it again.

[mhsmith0]

@roshar: 135 first quote response parroted rc's 91/109/112. Rc may have meant something else as well, I'm not sure.

[mhsmith0]

Also

fos smith

. oof, don't think i've forgotten this disasterpiece.

he's an asskisser this game and defender of the meek, plain and simple, and I don't like it

. Also as soon as someone says the phrase "reaction test" I want to dayvig them anyway. so this will work out fine. Less talk, more reckless lynching, please. come, sheeple, and vote.

Citations please.

Ps why do you have maverick as town?

[mhsmith0]

@apf: do I get a reason or is guessing part of the fun?

Ps I sincerely apologize for forcing you into voting for me. It pains me deeply to have backed you into such a corner
(The eye roll is there just in case my ps wasn't obvious sarcasm... Please tell me that it wasn't needed. Please).

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw, I tend to be on the slow side in voting. I dislike throwing my vote around aggressively. I don't have a problem with those who do, but that's not my style. I obviously haven't been impressed with you so far, but I'm not at the point where i think it's vote worthy. I'd rather observe, ask questions, and develop a more informed opinion, of both you and others. Especially since I've never played with you before and don't know your meta.

I'd also note that 139 in particular was an answer to roshars 137. I don't see how that was setting anything up.

[mhsmith0]

cause there's only been one post since the game started.

VOTE: mhsmith

Nos provides "Original Content" as requested by Maverick. As with APF's vote, an explanation would be nice.

[mhsmith0]

edit: APF provided said explanation after I asked, in case that wasn't clear.

[mhsmith0]

I amuse you? I make you laugh?

Do you happen to have an estimate for when you're going to start playing? Or will we be getting another 30 or so posts that are variations of "sorry guys it's just too early for me to be playing serious"? At least our other high-volume posters are mixing in content with the silliness. Will this help motivate you to start playing?

VOTE: Jake from state farm

More seriously, this is a LOT of posts to basically not be providing any actual content. If it's a scum plan to just look busy, it's a bad one because of how obviously ineffective it is, but sometimes scum simply don't have anything to say so they continue to speak without saying anything.


Other early reads:

Maverick: seems to be taking the game seriously. Asks questions of wide variety of posters, puts his opinions down on the thread, seems to be genuinely interested in sorting people. Obviously scum can fake this, but it doesn't feel fake to me. Town lean.

FA: Obviously a decent number of the posts were just random crap, but there was enough substance in here that I'm feeling good about her right now. Seems genuinely curious about sorting people, and consistently engages in a variety of discussions with a goal of pushing or sorting people. Town lean.

APF: I'm having a hard time sorting him because I can't tell when he's being serious and when he's just BS'ing / reaction testing / lazy (the discussion about 29 seems misguided in that regard because it felt like intentional BS to me). It feels like he's been more serious lately. I still think his reasoning in his vote for me was weak (and the vote / unvote / revote was odd, especially unvoting me because I "agreed" with his post on RC), but early votes tend to be on the weak side unless you've got really dumb scum or something. Null for now but it'd be nice to see a bit more seriousness so that I can actually read him.

Roshar: I'd agree that a decent number of her posts were more theory/mechanics than substance, but I'm not sure that this really stands out in this board (so far). I'm not going to vote her just because her theory stands at odds with people on the board. There's also a level of aggression I'm seeing lately that seems towny. Overall null, with maybe a really small town lean, and I'll +1 on Maverick liking her lately.

RC: I really don't have a sense of him right now. The temper flare-up around 164 was odd, but I'm not sure it's AI. Ditto all the talk about his meta.

Nos: Maverick was correct to point out the lack of content in her posts. Naked voting me as a "ok here now I'm providing content" was really weird. Possibly scummy but seems as likely to just be lazy or reactive than necessarily scummy. Lean scum but largely TBD depending on her content.

Clumsy/FL/Kain/Lowell: meh.

[mhsmith0]

I'd love to see your explanation on why not posting walls at day start is scum indicative.

Odd way of reading my post. There's a happy medium between naked voting as a response to a prompt to make content, and posting a large wall.

[mhsmith0]

I'd love to see your explanation on why not posting walls at day start is scum indicative.

Odd way of reading my post. There's a happy medium between naked voting as a response to a prompt to make content, and posting a large wall.

I wasn't talking about me

Ah, sorry. I read your post as a response to my scum lean on you. Out of curiosity, who were you talking to?

[mhsmith0]

I hate that my read has changed so quickly, but I quite like the logic in that from Roshar. UNVOTE: APF

VOTE: Clumsy

I suppose... "there might be something there"

[mhsmith0]

Didn't know that was an ordered readlist, but w/e, it was to you, just not on the topic of me. I was talking about jake, who did the exact thing he said he was going to do once the game started.

There's a bit of a disconnect here. I wasn't asking for a wall, I was asking for content and commenting on the disturbingly high number of posts without content. Content doens't need to be a wall, it can be short, it can be as simple as a relevant question.

[mhsmith0]

rosh is fine now. done with him.

smith's 351 looks like a try-hard filler post after he got called out for lurking. what i can do in one charismatic and awesome sentence he takes a text-wall to do. except he still does nothing.

VOTE: smith

Which of these sentences was the "charismatic and awesome" one? And will you ever get around to providing those citations I asked for in 140? Or how your "gut" had Maverick as town so quickly?

[mhsmith0]

I was exaggerating when I said wall. I just found it odd that you would vote someone because they didn't leap out of the gate with scumhunting, when they clearly previously stated that they didn't find the pre-game to have proper reactions. It just seems like gunning for easy pickings to me.

The lack of scum-hunting right off the bat didn't bother me so much as the bloated number of "I'm not trying, here's why I'm not trying" posts. It's a bit of a vote whip, I'll admit, but right now I think he NEEDS that whip. If he impresses me with his content, I'll unvote.

PS While we're talking about vote reasons, why did you vote me? Is it fair for me to suspect that you did it as a response to maverick's prompt to start doing stuff? Or was there a more tangible reason involved?

[mhsmith0]

@Mav: was that at me or Nos? I think me, so I'll answer: I think Jake's behavior is plausibly scummy, but it's as much a vote whip as anything else. I'm certainly not going to be driving his lynch aggressively at this stage. 30+ posts is a lot of posts without content, but if he starts doing better I'll unvote.

[mhsmith0]

I'm not here to impress you. I have no desire to impress you and your vote on me isn't going to make me change how I play. You want to policy lynch me for not playing to your standards go right ahead.

I actually like this response.

[mhsmith0]

@Nos: Not sure why you thought the sarcasm was stupid, but since almost no one saw as sarcasm at the time it you're at least not alone.

Fair enough wrt jake, if it was a serious attempt to get him lynched, I'd agree. I'm not sure why you'd think it was though. Given that it was explicitly accompanied by "Will this help motivate you to start playing?" it wasn't exactly "hey everyone let's aggressively lynch the scum".

@mav: the scum motivation would be active lurking. I don't think he did a good job of it if it was a scum plan, but there's also an element of shrinking expectations of his play by being this consistently unhelpful, which could put him under fire, but also could just be a way to play the "scum wouldn't be this blatant" game. If he actually starts doing something, and I read it as non-scummy, I'll unvote. But in a game where I'm not really scum-reading any of the active participants, the active lurker stands out, at least for now.

[mhsmith0]

PS @Nos: I didn't like that you seemingly voted me as a reaction to Maverick's "start providing content" bit, but it was plausible that you had a reason that you just hadn't bothered sharing. I'm not going to seriously scum read something for that. Now, if you kept stone-walling, or had a completely ridiculous reason, things might change. But I didn't find your reason to be totally unreasonable (though I did think it a bit weak).

[mhsmith0]

PPS in case anyone is unfamiliar with the term, vote whipping is defined (on my other site, playdip) as: "The behaviour of voting for a player to encourage them to answer a question, participate, or otherwise engage in debate." Which is basically what my vote was, with a plausible scum explanation of his behavior so far attached.

[mhsmith0]

@Nos: Not sure why you thought the sarcasm was stupid, but since almost no one saw as sarcasm at the time it you're at least not alone.

no, I didn't get the sarcasm, it's that you made a shitty post and then said "oh it was asrcasm gaiz I tohught dat was obvios"

*shrugs* I still feel like the post

@APF: Absolutly. Also, RC is obv scum for reasons too secret for me to publicly explain.

is obvious sarcasm. Like, it being a serious post is totally non-sensical. You and Clumsy called me out on that, apparently without stopping to think what I might have meant. And APF unvoted me because he apparently read the first word and ignored the rest of the post. But that's enough people reacting to it as serious to make me think I did a crappy job of making the sarcasm clear.

[mhsmith0]

I think the point of active lurking is to coast without drawing attention to yourself. Jake is doing plenty of that.

Hmm, I suppose you may be right.

UNVOTE: Jake

I still scum lean him, but it's certainly not flagrant. I'm still irritated at his active non-participation, but it's not like I want to drive his lynch. I still do want to see something out of his slot though.

[mhsmith0]

the tone of your post is completely static and there's no reason it could be interpreted as sarcasm. This is why we have and Kappa and :^) and other such emoticons to denote sarcasm properly.

So "RC is obv scum for reasons too secret for me to publicly explain" reads as not just serious but "no reason it could be interpreted as sarcasm" to you? Due to tone alone? Ignoring the obvious BS nature of it? Really?

[mhsmith0]

I think the point of active lurking is to coast without drawing attention to yourself. Jake is doing plenty of that.

Well you could say that if he were actually active lurking. He specifically stated he wasn't going to be considering the pre-game, and followed through. An active lurker wouldn't do that imo.

pedit: so apparently smith is interpreting this post as saying jake is drawing attention to himself, and

since we have differing interpretations, it's only right to get on my knees and grovel for mav to pick the correct interpretation

Please clarify the bolded part. When have I said anything along those lines? Are you implying that I am demanding that he fall in line with my interpretation? Are you trying to make some other point?

the tone of your post is completely static and there's no reason it could be interpreted as sarcasm. This is why we have and Kappa and :^) and other such emoticons to denote sarcasm properly.

So "RC is obv scum for reasons too secret for me to publicly explain" reads as not just serious but "no reason it could be interpreted as sarcasm" to you? Due to tone alone? Ignoring the obvious BS nature of it? Really?

just because it's stupid doesn't make it sarcastic. I don't know you. You could actually be that dumb.

That's quite a bit different than "there's no reason it could be interpreted as sarcasm". So your interpretation is... what? That I'm an idiot and made an incredibly stupid and non-sensical post, and just randomly back-pedalled into the sarcasm excuse? Or that I intentionally said something dumb, as part of some strange scum plan? I'm struggling to see how this all fits together in your mind, especially given your aggressive statement that sarcasm simply wasn't a reasonable explanation. I'd really like some more insight from you as to what you're thinking here.

I'd especially like some evidence that you put thought into this, because I'm starting to wonder if you just jumped right into the easy scum explanation, and if so, I want to know why.

[mhsmith0]

I didn't realize you were being sarcastic. Let's just get this out of the way, I'm not thinking you're scum here because of this post. I realize now that you thought it was sarcasm. I said that the initial reason was because I remember how you explained this post as sarcasm, and that it didn't make sense to me. I'm not voting you know because of that. If it was just that, I would've unvoted much before.

So the other reasons are ___?
And how many of them applied at the time of your vote?

no, I was of the mind what when mav said "I think the point of active lurking is to coast without drawing attention to yourself. Jake is doing plenty of that."
I interpreted that when he said "Jake is doing plenty of that." he was saying jake was active lurking.

Since you unvoted, I'm assuming you interpreted mav as saying jake was drawing attention to himself, thereby making him not active lurking.

1) What did that have to do with the whole "get on my knees and grovel" bit?
2) My unvote was because I decided that it was at least a reasonable interpretation, and because I decided that my vote was weak and didn't deserve to just sit there. Basically as I described in 390. I'd also note that just because Jake DID draw some attention to himself doesn't mean that he INTENDED to do so. But it's a pretty mediocre case right now, and I shouldn't have voted it, even as a vote whip.

[mhsmith0]

So, why are you still voting me? I'm trying to get a handle on your thought process here, and it's difficult. You're making it clear there are other reasons for the vote, but not actually stating what those reasons are. And I'm not really sure why that is.

[mhsmith0]

I also think you're gunning for low-hanging fruit with jake, which is why I haven't moved it.

you've backed down on jake now tho so I'll probably move it to the next person that pings me

So basically you're vote parking on me until someone else pings your radar? I don't really approve of that behavior.

PS In your mind, how fair would it be for me to think that you were "gunning for low-hanging fruit" with me and the sarcasm bit with your original vote?

[mhsmith0]

I'm not voting you know because of that. If it was just that, I would've unvoted much before.

One other thing: this post came 24 minutes after I unvoted, and you're now saying that my unvote more or less removed your vote motivation (that's how I read 398 anyway). When you made the statement I just quoted above, did you realize that I had unvoted? Is this a case where you'd missed what I did above and were still thinking my vote was on Jake, or was there in fact something else driving your motivation to stay on me?

[mhsmith0]

So was there something else driving your motivation to stay on me, or was it mainly inertia at that point?

[mhsmith0]

Some people may write it off as a grudge vote which would be a valid assumption as well, but imo he has no useful skills that is worthy keeping around if he is town and if he is scum you definitely want him gone ASAP. This is the guy who double bussed his mafia partners hard and convinced town to lynch a gunsmith clear (or maybe it was a cop) to win the game as scum. he is very manipulative and impossible to read as either alignment. He should absolutely be the lynch today and until I see posts from other people that make me think they may be a better lynch. I like my vote where it is at. I don't really think anything said pre-game is going to change my mind but if you disagree please feel free to provide me links or quotes of posts I should consider.

I guess you'll have to speak for yourself, but I'd LOVE it if scum!RC decided to double-bus his buddies here. Especially if he did it early. Is there anything at all here other than what amounts to a policy lynch of a player you don't like?

am I wrong?

you are all wrong.

Once the game started my vote was going to be on RC no matter what happened because that was who I was going to use my "rvs" vote on, although it wasn't going to be for a random reason but for a very specific reason.

My vote is staying on him however because the posts that i did happen to read of his make me think he is scum.

Anything in particular jump out at you on this front? Telling us what posts you think are scummy, and why you think they're scummy, is more helpful than the blanket statement. You basically started by advocating a policy lynch of RC, but are now transitioning to saying it's a substantive read, but are refusing to say where your substance comes from.
PS Between 427 (where you seem to represent it as a policy lynch) and 460 (where you explicitly represent it as substantive), RC's only post was:

VOTE: JFSF
Not dealing with someone with that attitude, regardless of alignment.

Was that the post that pinged you? Or did you re-read earlier posts to find things that jumped out at you as being scummy?

Are you seriously asking for people to not provide information to the rest of us? If you don't like them, you can decide not to read them, but getting people's views and reasons is pretty much the only way to convince the rest of the game of your argument.

I think you kind of misinterpreted me. I'm not asking people to not provide information but I am asking them to not provide it in the format of a reads list. People can relay their thoughts on others without making a reads list. List reads give scum info about who they should NK and who they should leave alive to let town mislynch. If you find people scummy you can relay that info without a list read. If you find people town, good for you. Don't share that info unless somebody asks you (which imo nobody should do). No need to share who you think is town, that's not the point of the game.

Scum are going to NK for whatever reasons they want. According to you, the down side of providing town reads is that scum can make slightly more informed reads (as opposed to the much more informed reads created by PR hunting). OTOH, the upside of providing town reads is that it gets people to provide more reasoning in thread, giving scum more chances to get caught BS'ing, and it makes life difficult for scum to have to make scum cases on people they were town reading earlier.
Frankly, your theory here seems to be really weird. Is this a theory that you typically advocate as town? Can you point me to an earlier game of yours where you've made similar statements?

What do you mean by conclusive? As in she's not explicity stating her views, or something else? I'm not sure how anything can be seen as conclusive on D1 with no flips or night actions, unless I'm misunderstanding

As in you're only pointing at things you find odd but never coming to a conclusion about how this makes you feel towards RC.

The bolded pings me bad...I'm going to do an ISO dive on Nos, but right now she's probably my strongest scum read.

Yeah, same post gave me bad vibes as well. The thought process of, "if I wanted to pick the easiest wagon, I'd have gone for x" but look, "I went for y instead" as if that exonerated you, comes from scum. And the I'd BS a reason against roshar part.

Yeah this makes me uncomfortable as well. Both me and Roshar were relatively easy targets at that stage (and, notably, Roshar had gotten some defense in thread by that point - I'm specifically thinking maverick in 339 but there might have been more), so "I picked X instead of Y" isn't super convincing.

@Nos: do you ever exhibit this kind of behavior as town? Can you point to any specific examples of this? I'll meta-dive you if I have to, but I'd rather you just point me to it at this stage.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah this makes me uncomfortable as well. Both me and Roshar were relatively easy targets at that stage (and, notably, Roshar had gotten some defense in thread by that point - I'm specifically thinking maverick in 339 but there might have been more), so "I picked X instead of Y" isn't super convincing.

I hate when someone call himself an easy target.

And I don't like your last post at all. your push on Jake seems ill

1) fair enough on easy target point.
2) what looks off wrt my jake push? I'm trying to get him to actually say what he's reading, and talk about what his theory is. Also, that theory looked really odd to me, so I'm trying to better understand him.

[mhsmith0]

I felt you don't beleive what your writing. you were just trying to repeat , put together , make a case on him and gather votes but your tone was like your trying to show its not what I'm saying like you wanna distance yourself from the push.

And when I feel something its usually true so I'm really suspicious about you right now.

For jake I'm trying to sort him. I'm finding his non transparency frustrating. I'm also kind of wondering if he's just VI tbh.

[mhsmith0]

Whats your initial reads on shadows and RC ?

I'm pretty null on RC. I don't feel like I've gotten anything particularly useful from him that I can use to sort him.

shaddowez: Hadn't really been a focus of mine. A lot of his content seems to be generally making relatively easy points, which I dislike, but it's early enough that doesn't sound much of an alarm to me.

That said, skimming the FA/shadow double ISO, it looks like you found 252 interesting. I think I agree with your point about his observations not having a lot of substance, but I'm not sure I agree about him trying to derail Roshar wagon (at least in that post).

What's the reason behind people (pre-)voting Roshar? I don't see anything in there I would call scummy.

Is a pretty weak attempt to derail a wagon. It's just as plausibly a request for info/clarification. Now, your point about everyone having already explained things is fair, but seemingly lazy reading this early isn't something I'm going to vote someone for.

I think 259 is kind of dumb (I don't think it's weird that a wagon would pick up momentum, or that it necessarily implies scum drivers).

But 262... yeah that one sucks. I don't actually mind the "chainsawy" parts (per RC's 264), but I dislike the "look over there" bit wrt Maverick.

I also don't think his push/vote on Nos is particularly troublesome, though the low content is certainly a point that's been brought up before (see 343, possibly others ). I'm actually a bit curious why the Nos ISO dive leads to a town read of Jake, though.

shaddowez, could you clarify that point?

Overall I'd say mainly null on this slot, maybe a minor scum read from the "look over there" bit. Certainly nothing I'd want to vote him for.

/ninjad by a few, will respond to those

[mhsmith0]

No that wasn't the post that pinged me, it wasn't one post that pinged me btw. No I did not re-read anything. I think you need to work on your reading comprehension also because I covered this already here

I don't see at all where you had covered this before I asked about it. You went from suggesting it was essentially a policy lynch or maybe RVS (let's lynch RC because "he has no useful skills that is worthy keeping around if he is town and if he is scum you definitely want him gone ASAP") to suggesting it was a legitimate read based on data from this game in particular, in a span of time where RC made precisely one post, and you never specified what you found suspicious. Asking what changed is legitimate.

You are trying to make yourself useful by asking questions that already have been answered or that don't really matter.

Which questions were already answered? And which questions don't matter, and why?

wondering why mhsmith didn't offer to meta dive me?

Because it's a super easy question for you to answer yourself without a meta dive. Either you represent this position in other games, or you don't. Why would I need/want to meta dive you for that?

now tell me how my stance on list reads help you figure out my alignment? I'll go ahead and answer that for you actually because the answer is is blatantly obvious. THEY DON'T.

Because if it's a position you don't normally advocate, it would look suspicious and I'd want to know why. I found your theory odd, and was trying to get a sense of if you honestly believed it. That's me actually trying to figure you out.

[mhsmith0]

@Nos: do you ever exhibit this kind of behavior as town? Can you point to any specific examples of this? I'll meta-dive you if I have to, but I'd rather you just point me to it at this stage.

give me a specific behviour and I'll give you a game.

As town, do you tend to open scum-hunting by looking at more popular targets already under suspicion? And do you tend to give the "well if I was scum I'd have done X instead of Y" type defense?

[mhsmith0]

Mh, why did you decide to change your opinion on votes/voting?

Because I was irritated at you and what seemed like an active choice you were making not to participate.

[mhsmith0]

So you sacrifice your personal play style to vote me to motivate me to play better cause I annoy you?

Btw this makes me think you think I'm town. If I were scum, or you thought I was scum, My play couldn't be annoying you. It would be pinging your scum dar and you would be calling me scum.

So mh thinks/knows I'm town. That was productive.

How does that make sense? I find dealing with people who refuse to allow themselves to be read annoying. It's anti-town (and IMO obnoxious) behavior, but it can come from either alignment (which is part of what makes it so annoying). I want to be able to read you, and to do this at any kind of early stage, I need to actually know what you're thinking (or see enough from you that I can make a reasonable guess as to what you're thinking).

PS You seem to discount the idea that I could find this annoying if I was town and you scum. I'm not really sure why. As town, I want to be able to gain an informed opinion of you rather than just having your obnoxious behavior pinging my scum-dar. I want to have strong reason to correctly read you, rather than making a limited gut read based on a specific set of anti-town behaviors.

Or to put it another way: as town, I want to solve the mystery that the game is presenting. Behavior that makes this task more difficult makes the game more unpleasant to play.

PPS The full paragraph from your quote was (underlined was your exceprt):

4. I don't need to have read the past 15 pages to place a serious vote. I placed a serious vote and didn't read the past 15 pages so I kind of just proved its possible.

Side note, just cause I didn't read every single post during pre-game doesn't mean I didn't read stuff.

I was obviously posting/responding to people during pregame which means I had to read stuff during pregame.

How does THAT make it clear that you were scum-reading RC specifically due to posts taht he made, much less that it was because his posts read as "fake"? It reads far more like a generic "oh yeah I read some stuff but not all of it" than anything specifically pointing to RC's posting as the basis for a scum read, or that you'd specifically been paying attention to his posts. Especially given

3. Why does it become pointless? Why can't I place a serious vote and not have read pre-game? That's a stupid assumption to make.

which reads like your reason for voting was somethign OTHER THAN what was actually in pre-game. Now, maybe you just meant that you didn't need to have read ALL (or maybe even most) of pre-game to have a "serious" vote, but it was by no means super clear.

[mhsmith0]

Have you ever played the game of Mafia before? If yes have you ever been Mafia or SK or some sort of 3rd party?

Cause if you have you would realize how stupid this post is.

Maybe you just screwed up. Yes, it wasn't super likely, but it's hardly impossible.

Just like this game isn't like any of the RC games I've played with him either as jfsf or secret alts. It's different from both town and scum games

This is a helpful post. You're suggesting that your read is meta (which I don't really have the ability to verify, certainly not quickly), but I'm getting more out of you as to the basis of your read, and at least building towards being able to understand you.

[mhsmith0]

If you wanted clarity from me you handeled it all wrong.

Possibly. I don't really agree, but at the least I eventually got some answers.

[mhsmith0]

If you wanted clarity from me you handeled it all wrong.

Possibly. I don't really agree, but at the least I eventually got some answers.

Had you asked me direct questions about my vote to begin with instead of voting me to "motivate me to do better" you would have saved time. You would have also stayed off my radar and wouldn't have revealed yourself as scum.

Thanks I appreciate scum making it easy for me

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: Shadow

This is scum I'm pretty sure.

Because ___?

Also, how sure is "pretty sure"?

PS +1 on your sig

PPS As with Mav earlier, I'm fine with a short explanation at this point.

[mhsmith0]

Wrt jake, I find myself ever more frustrated with trying to get him to open up at all. It feels like pulling teeth and it really shouldn't. I owe him a meta dive (not ASAP but def. by this weekend) to see if he's always super closed, if he often jumps in with "ok I found the scum guys" type posts representing theories he hasn't fully thought through or came down on one side and just ignored other plausible explanations. But my gut is saying that I'll probably see similar behavior from him in either alignment, and that he's just going to live perpetually in the null zone by choice, because that's where he wants to be.

It's the sort of behavior that IMO makes the game less pleasant, regardless of his alignment. And there's a post game rant that I'll probably go on about why I dislike this behavior so much. But if you want me to give you a strong alignment read on him, I can't. Maybe he'll start to open up and let him be read one way or the other. I hope he does. But I suspect he won't, and that further efforts to get much out of him are likely to be fruitless. Maybe I'll change my mind on that going forward, or maybe someone else will do a better job getting something substantive out of him. But at least right now, I don't know what to make of his alignment, and I'm not optimistic that I'll get much of a better read any time soon. Sorry for not being able to give you a better or more definitive answer, but that's where I am on him right now.

[mhsmith0]

ninja'd a bit by FL but I have some other thoughts on the subject. Coming soonish.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler: Jake Thoughts

As annoying as it is to defend Jake, I would say that his argument in 587 holds water as a consistent thought. He's basically saying that there was pressure against my argument, as opposed to specifically being pressure against my vote. There's a logical consistency there, and in fact it represents a plausible read of what happened.
The back and forth seems like Maverick found something and jumped on it as much as there truly being anything worth jumping on. Given that Jake tends to present things in an opaque manner and stonewalls, I don't view maverick's take there as necessarily unreasonable, but it is at least a bit lazy to jump to the "you're lying" take on that incident instead of trying to figure out how it might reasonably hold together in his mind.
That said, Jake's over the top "how dare you accuse me of lying you have insulted my honor sir" bit in , [post]604, etc. was ridiculous. You don't get to blast someone else's somewhat lazy read of what you wrote when you basically did the same with me, see "That really makes no sense to me", "I just don't see his motives being town hence the vote", etc.
PS "I get it, I apparently annoy you for some reason, for what reason I have no idea." Maybe everyone in this game that you've annoyed is taking crazy pills!

Overall, I feel like Jake came out of the back and forth with Maverick looking a lot more decent than I was expecting. I'm not sure anything between him and FA pinged me as especially notable for AI purposes; I may re-read that later, but that's my first take. I'm actually starting to lean a little bit town on him.

Spoiler: Maverick Thoughts

FWIW, some of this is similar to what FL said in 663.
Looking specifically at Jake's 615, which argued that five of Maverick's accusations were false:
1 Likely false. I suppose it's plausible that in 521 Jake was sneaking in that specific wording to try to buy town credit, but it's buried inside of an accusation against me, which makes me think it was more related to the "why are you annoyed at MOI????" point (which of course was ridiculous), but his overall game play has been anything but looking for explicit town credit.
2/3 (related, response to "You're backtracking with pedantic little arguments that anyone ought to be able to see through") Likely false. I say "likely" here because there's an opaqueness to Jake's process that both makes him difficult to read AND plausibly gives him the option to go back and say "no, this is what I meant". That said, I don't see any kind of clear evidence of backtracking or a reliance on pedantry.
4 Debatable. Jake represented getting worked up specifically about the lying portion more than the accusation. But it could reasonably be that he simply focused on that bit as part of the "worked up about you thinking I'm scum" perspective.
5 Debatable. If Jake legitimately thinks that he's being falsely accused of lying, I could buy him getting angry as either alignment. I could also buy that he's faking it (especially as an easy buy of credibility in case there are other points where he DOES end up lying). I don't see in-thread evidence that this is clearly true or clearly false.
Jake's defense against the other stuff ("Willingly ignored a large portion of the game"; not putting effort into reading others; "tunnelling... a quite weak argument") seems to boil down to "I don't play that way, and you can't tell me how to play". I don't like that defense at all, but it doesn't make him scum.

PS There's something specific of Maverick's that I really don't like.

I like both the Nos and the JSF Wagons. I quite liked Froot Loops' reminder that 'Too scummy to be scum' isn't a thing, so I reread Jake in ISO. Despite a fair amount of posts in both pregame and D1, there is still very little to work with and if I'm honest, it seems like he's making it difficult to read him.
Would town do this? Probably not.

This comes after his critique of my case on Jake earlier:

Ninja-ja'd: I have to roll with Nos on that one. Whilst I'd like her to participate with more posts like the #368 you quoted, I can't help but want to know why you think that's scummy. I don't appreciate how Jake is acting, but playing so blatently anti-town just isn't something I can see scum doing so early into D1.

Ninja'd - I can't see JSF as scum being so directly confrontational so far so I'm slipping him into the leaning-town category.

I think the point of active lurking is to coast without drawing attention to yourself. Jake is doing plenty of that.

I'm struggling to see what drove Maverick to basically change his interpretation of the very same set of facts that earlier caused him to town read Jake. Maverick, why did your opinion on this flip between 387 and 543? It can't be because Froot Loop convinced you that it's because anti-town behavior necessarily equals scum; she specifically notes that her Jake vote is due to something else entirely. So what else changed to make that behavior scummy in your mind?

PS I'd agree that Jake's vote on me is mediocre, but I'm not sure that it's necessarily insincere or vote parking or anything like that. He's stated why he's voting me, notably in 474, 482, 485, 503.

So

I can't actually see why JSF is voting for mhsmith other than he dislikes readslists and they've butted heads a little bit

just seems off, and really reductionist. You can certainly disagree with his reasons (I do), but to suggest that he's just hand-waving a case out of nowhere solely because we've "butted heads"... no. That's not what he's saying. And while Jake is opaque, he's not THAT opaque. Town lean retracted.


Nos: I need to spend more time here. But one thing grabbed my attention:

Spoiler: Nosferatu quotes

how I'm making a mountain of a topic I didn't even comment on without being prompted on. I didn't even try to argue that the sarcasm thing was scummy but you're acting like I'm pushing smith hard about it and scumreading him solely based on it, when I clearly said I wasn't.

That's not exactly true.

@smith even tho I said I wouldn't really be reading the previous pages seriously, the stupid "muh sarcasm" shit way back when in the early pages still pinged me a bit so the initial vote was for that
I also think you're gunning for low-hanging fruit with jake, which is why I haven't moved it.

So her initial vote WAS for "the sarcasm thing" (and the fact that she voted for me due to this suggests that it was something she found scummy, unless this was some sort of reaction test thing or the like). And she DID argue the point, see

no, I didn't get the sarcasm, it's that you made a shitty post and then said "oh it was asrcasm gaiz I tohught dat was obvios"

the tone of your post is completely static and there's no reason it could be interpreted as sarcasm. This is why we have and Kappa and :^) and other such emoticons to denote sarcasm properly.

and then eventually becomes

I didn't realize you were being sarcastic. Let's just get this out of the way, I'm not thinking you're scum here because of this post. I realize now that you thought it was sarcasm. I said that the initial reason was because I remember how you explained this post as sarcasm, and that it didn't make sense to me. I'm not voting you know because of that. If it was just that, I would've unvoted much before.

Nos, it looks like you WERE in fact "try[ing] to argue that the sarcasm thing was scummy". Am I reading you wrong? Are you trying to make some other point than something that seems to be explicitly false?

I'll also note that you're not currently pushing me, although I do note that your vote is still on me. Do you still think I'm scum? Has someone else pinged your radar? What are your current thoughts right now?

[mhsmith0]

Not sure what to make of smith's post. On the surface it looks like he actually put some effort into writing it. Being a newb player that's something im not used to seeing. Smith are you by chance an alt account?

Not an alt. I have two completed "real" games under my belt (one town, one scum, both losses, both offsite), plus a few turbos (days < 30 min).
Town: http://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/view ... 14&t=52035
Scum: http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... alad-Mafia

@smith you are reading wrong. And I've already mentioned who's pinging my radar right now.

You did but OTOH

you've backed down on jake now tho so I'll probably move it to the next person that pings me

so I'm not sure if you're still scum reading me, if you're not serious about who you've mentioned, or what exactly you're up to.

PS Am I otherwise reading wrong? If so, please tell me how.


PPS I'm back at work and busy so likely won't be saying much else until tonight.

[mhsmith0]

FA and Jake: Both of you seriously need to stop talking to and about each other. It's not helpful at all. To anyone. Take a couple days off of your mutual engagement, and come back with cooler heads.

[mhsmith0]

Why would I stop pressuring the person I want lynched?

Parroting Lowell here:

if I were scum trying to hide right now I'd be happy

In a bit more detail:

1) You're making the thread about your personal pissing match against FA, swamping literally everything else, with no real signs of abating. And if it DOES continue indefinitely...
2) If this is in fact town v town (I'm not particularly sure atm but it could be) , it sets up almost perfectly for consecutive ML's, with one of you following the other in whatever order.
3) Even if you're in a situation where you're town and FA is scum, you're simplifying the engagement here to the point where scum don't really have to be accountable for which side they pick in the fight, or whatever their other reads or engagements are.

So it's not helpful. You've made your case. Unless there is something SPECIFIC, IMPORTANT, AND NEW to say on the subject, just stop. Let other people read what's happened so far and make their own opinions. Another few pages of back and forth shouting doesn't provide any useful information to any of us.

[mhsmith0]

@Jake: Here's something just as helpful: spend the next day listing all the posts you think are scummy, and compile one big mega post or something on the subject. That way at least there's space for SOMETHING else to emerge in the down time.

@FA: Just ignore him. Think of it as a challenge or something.

[mhsmith0]

STOP PLS FA.
Jake seriously the fuck.
Do you think the mod makes a 'stop talking to each other' post if FA isn't town?

Like the mod basically modslipped that FA is fucking town. leave her alone.

I'll literally wagon anything that isn't in my townpile atm.

I don't think the mod slipped anything AI. I think the mod slipped that this whole engagement is toxic. Regardless of individual players' alignments.

[mhsmith0]

I CAN'T IGNORE PEOPLE

You don't have any clues what you just asked me

This is true. I don't know you. And I don't know what it means to you what I asked. All I can say is, I think that's the healthier response. Get drunk like you were promising (but please not too drunk). Take 24 hours off the game. Do something other than posting at him. If you can manage it, I think you'll feel better for it.

[mhsmith0]

@mod: can you shut down the thread for 24 hours or something? I don't know if that's allowed or not, but I think it would at least help things and FORCE a disengagement if it is allowed.

[mhsmith0]

I'll pop my head in and ask to wait on any kind of quickhammer. There's a ridiculous number of sludge posts I have to motivate myself to slog through to see if I can come up wtih a better opinion on jake. And I'm not doing it tonight. I'll try to do it tomorrow, maybe have other reads on other people too.

[mhsmith0]

my thought on jake is that his behavior, as obnoxious as it was, leans town (unfortunately). I consider it possible that he just went all out on offense when he was under fire, but I think it's more that he was town and DGAF how bad his behavior was. just push, push, push, push into a death tunnel. I've seen it to lesser degrees in other games. And it's a town tendency, again unfortunately.

As for the rest, I want to re-read everything NOT involving jake with a fresh set of eyes.

I'd also bet the farm that Jake/FA was not scum/scum (though scum/SK or the like is I guess possible). No way does it get that toxic between scum-buddies.

One thing which DID catch my eye was RC's 885. I'm not sure why "the way the mods dealt with the replacement" is necessarily AI. Does anyone else think it was?

[mhsmith0]

I think it was about 828. I think the reasoning was that the mod wouldn't interfere if Jake were pressuring scum. I'm not entirely sure I agree with this, just because that really was just too much. It's a game. And I'm not really into this meta reading of the game. Breaks the spirit of the game in my opinion.

I don't generally mind meta reading; it's part of the game under most circumstances.

But I do think the whole "the mod wouldn't have done this" if FA was town bit is odd. I mean, I feel comfortable saying that the mod would have hesitated if it was scum-scum, but I feel even more comfortable saying that no scum-scum team would have acted like this in the first place. I don't really see the logic behind assuming that mod action makes it t/t, t/s, or s/t. IMO it's basically null wrt their alignments. I could listen to a counter argument if someone wnats to make one, but that's where I am right now.

[mhsmith0]

prodge. will be back soon, hopefully tomorrow.

[mhsmith0]

I'll +1 on the "Clumsy hasn't done much of anything at all" observations. I skimmed his ISO from prior newbie games
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=65431
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=64996
and he was a lot more aggressive and talkative in each. One was town and one was scum, so it's hardly certain, but the difference here is jarring, and I suspect it's because he's been trying to keep his head down among what's been, let's just say, some aggressive personalities. He hasn't been scum reading anyone, he hasn't been getting into the fray, he's been keeping his head down as much as he can.
There's even been stuff like:

I have my own feelings on this, but I want to hear why you think it's scum first RC. I'll explain my side after.

that never actually got returned to. Debatably his strongest opinion so far this game was

I... think we need to wait Roshar. The intent and claim and whatever is fine, but with all these replacements I think we need to wait on everyone to get in here before a lynch.

or

I think it was about 828. I think the reasoning was that the mod wouldn't interfere if Jake were pressuring scum. I'm not entirely sure I agree with this, just because that really was just too much. It's a game. And I'm not really into this meta reading of the game. Breaks the spirit of the game in my opinion.

which really aren't what you want your major contributions to be.

I'm admittedly a bit nervous about backing a lurker lynch, but his meta doesn't seem lurky at all, which really makes me think that this is deliberate. And it's not just the low post count, it's the lack of content in the posts that he does make. VOTE: Clumsy
This is now L-2 by my count.

[mhsmith0]

I definitely understand busy-ness and over-joining as driving reduced content. But we're pretty well along into D1, and I'm not sure what your thoughts are, what your reads are, etc. It seems to go beyond just over-extension, tbh. But I could be wrong. Looking forward to your defense and your thoughts on the game.

[mhsmith0]

Typically we see notice of intent to hammer, along with an explicit role claim (or lack thereof). Any reason we need to quickhammer here?

[mhsmith0]

DL is in 5 days and not all replacements are caught up and involved. No reason to hammer atm.

btw Nos, what are your current thoughts? Any current scum reads? You say you're ignoring me, but you're still voting me, so I'd like some clarification on where you stand.

[mhsmith0]

I don't see the problem with what clumsy is doing right now. I'm not sure it's useful, but it's either going to lead somewhere that we can say he's not scum, or he's going to leave a legacy that we can mine post flip. Plus, as long as he's slapping it all under spoiler tags, who really cares.

That said, Clumsy I think it'd be better if you didn't do one post per page. Do like one post per five pages or the like. Especially please don't do this when it gets into the FA-Jake war.

[mhsmith0]

Titus or Nos-- kill clumsy please.

tbh I wanna see what happens at the end

You find out it was the butler all along

[mhsmith0]

I literally explained to you why I'm still voting mhsmith

You literally didn't. Unless you mean

I didn't like how when we were talking he literally took every post and found some sort of implication that wasn't there and asked me about it.

?

Because that reads more like why you voted me in the first place than it does why you are still voting me.

A while back you said

you've backed down on jake now tho so I'll probably move it to the next person that pings me

so the question isn't why did you vote me in the first place, it's why is your vote still there. It's odd that you're vote parking on someone you're not all that motivated to engage with or drive a wagon on.

I'm not sure it's necessarily AI; it might be some kind of odd play style thing, or it may be that you're just kind of demotivated from really doing much in this game right now. But it bugs me.

PS @Roshar: I'll actually +1 on Nos about wanting to see where Clumsy actually goes with this.

/ninja'd: so it does look like it was holdover from earlier. So I guess the question is why so long with "meh, not a priority" treatment?

[mhsmith0]

shit like this is suspect to me. Off the top of my head this post bother the fuck out of me, I don't know if he does this again later on, but the fact that he just takes every posts and derives some weird ass implication from it.

I was tryign to figure out what you actually meant by

since we have differing interpretations, it's only right to get on my knees and grovel for mav to pick the correct interpretation

I mean, I get that it was a snarky comment in the first place, but it was unclear where you were actually going with it. It seemed like you were accusing me of something, but I really didn't know what you were trying to accuse me of. So I tried to get clarification.

[mhsmith0]

You said "since we have differing interpretations, it's only right to get on my knees and grovel for mav to pick the correct interpretation".

I didn't know what you meant by it. I guessed you meant "that I am demanding that he fall in line with my interpretation" (the "he" being maverick, as opposed to "everyone", if that matters at all - i.e. if you said that you had to "grovel" for mav to agree with you, then by implication I was demanding that mav agree with me). I asked you if that was correct, or if something else was going on. I mean, I gave you a pretty open out to say "no, I really meant ___" there. If I was totally wrong, you could have just clarified what you'd actually meant.

I mean, I get that you agreed with mav's point. But what you meant by the whole "grovel" bit still isn't clear to me. Or if you already clarified it, I guess I've simply forgotten.

[mhsmith0]

@Nos: the tone of your post is completely static and there's no reason it could be interpreted as sarcasm

[mhsmith0]

Sorry, lost track of this one for a bit, especially with the replacements coming in.

My clumsy vote was for more than just inactivity, and I'm not feeling a switch at this point. I'll keep an eye on what he chooses to do with his time when he gets back.

I'm open to a better case though, so if you want to develop the max case more I'm all ears.

[mhsmith0]

Roshar, you asked about maxs 1077. Not sure on the huntress thing, but I did have a different takeaway...

skimming here, sorry.

clumsy seems like town just for writing a million posts when called out on content. Seems pretty absurd to do as scum.

I would be looking at Shadow or Huntress I think for the vote.

Why would this be absurd to do as wolf? Popping in to give enough content to diminish the momentum against you, then popping back out and returning to regularly scheduled non production, seems pretty wolf to me. Are to suggesting that this is not what clumsy has done? Or are you suggesting this pattern is somehow town indicative?

Also, exactly how much useful content did you get from those posts anyway?

That being said, I totally would have self hammered if I was scum to cut off the time for discussion because it's pretty obvious that this is going to happen.

With a good amount of time left at that point, and no stated intent to hammer or claim demand, I don't find this remotely credible. And to be honest, I tend to find "I'd have done ___ as wolf", when ___ doesn't really make much sense, as a wolf tell.

Overall, Ymmv, but I don't see a better case out there. If you want to sell me on a different one I'll listen but I'm not really buying anything else right now.

[mhsmith0]

Ps "you" meant everyone in case that wasn't clear.

[mhsmith0]

@clumsy: The V/LA bit is a fair counter to my counter against Max's argument in the first bit. That said, your production bump was plausibly just busywork designed to stay alive when under fire (the V/LA bit complicates the story, of course, that's a fair point), so at the least I don't think it's fair to town read you for it, and Max's stated town read of you for it in 1077 IMO needed to be argued against.

Also I don't find your "I'd have totally self-hammered as wolf" to be credible given the scenario you were in; even as L-1, there was no intent to hammer, no claim demand (unless I missed it, and please let me know if I did). Why self hammer there when there was more than enough time in the day to make a counter wagon reasonably plausible? I actually really want an answer here, because it felt like a wolf slip to me.

[mhsmith0]

Ugh...

I was feeling better about Maxous when he was the first to unvote me and give time for everything + time for me to talk, but this does make it look a bit worse... but if it's going to be between me and him, even if I were 99% sure he was town... I'm 100% sure I am. So if that's the only other wagon, then yeah.

I'd also highlight this one specifically. "I'm voting max to survive but I definitely do NOT have any kind of opinion about his alignment". If that's a town process, I really struggle to see it.

[mhsmith0]

I'm not really sure what to think about how EOD went down. I was at a business meeting; should have made a note in thread to that effect, but figured that hammer would have been closer to deadline and I could chip in then.

I was slightly bugged by Roshar's EOD; her 1242 and subsequent posts read like an over-reaction to Clumsy's statement that he was basically ok with lynching max, roshar or lowell. Clumsy's "anyone but me" bit (which really was what it seemed to amount to) was suspicious, but I'm not sure it merited such a strong reaction. That may just be a playstyle thing though.

PS IMO, 1207 was not a misrep. At the time of Clumsy's vote, he wasn't offering an opinion on Max's alignment (he went with "this does make it look a bit worse", and it was unclear if or how much it cancelled out his earlier town read), and even hedged with the "even if I was 99% sure he was town" bit.

[mhsmith0]

I'm really curious as to why Nos was NK'd. Did they crumb? Otherwise kinda nonstrategic. I'm not gonna bother with wifom with this (i.e nos voted lowell).

I'm not entirely following this. You say you're curious, but you're not going to worry about the nos voting lowell part. Is there some other insight you think is worth gleaming from her death?

[mhsmith0]

Yes, I'm here. Not really what to think of Roshar's stuff lately. Need to re-read her ISO.

on a related note, given that we're talking about Nos (sort of), does anyone want to claim being her neighbor? It's obvious that someone was her neighbor; I haven't played much with neighbor mechanics before, so I don't know if it does or doesn't make sense for anyone to step forward on that front. If you presume she was an SPK, then it seems reasonable that she may have said something interesting or useful in neighbor chat that's worth sharing with the board.

PS I'll admit that I'm having some trouble making reads in this game. Partially because I don't want to slog through the prolonged mess portion of the game, partially because some other stuff has been higher priority lately. I'll re-read this evening and try to have something useful to say, hopefully tonight, MAYBE tomorrow night.

[mhsmith0]

DO NOT

Absolutely no reason reason to claim neighbor and paint a target on your back.

Why are you supposing the neighbor or neighbors is/are town?

+1. "Wolf neighbor" is actually a plausible reason to NK Nos. Especially if the wolf slipped in neighbor chat post hammer somehow.

[mhsmith0]

OTOH, if Nos had useful things to say, then it's likely worth the scrutiny to get those things out there.

[mhsmith0]

Shit

?

[mhsmith0]

It's still in the middle of day two. Maybe they don't want to rush, maybe she didn't say anything interesting, maybe theyre worried about getting wolf read if they declare themselves, I honestly don't know.

[mhsmith0]

It's still in the middle of day two. Maybe they don't want to rush, maybe she didn't say anything interesting, maybe theyre worried about getting wolf read if they declare themselves, I honestly don't know.

That does not really address why you tried to draw them out though.

I brought it up as an idea. If nos said something useful, it ought to be put into thread. I'm also unsure why "trying to draw them out" would be a particularly bad thing. Presuming that it's a two person neighborhood, the "pr" usefulness of it is gone at this point.

Edit: actually, nos did have a pr though. So maybe it's not worth messing with reveals. Suggestion withdrawn.

[mhsmith0]

Maybe he hasn't played with neighbours in many other games but there were so many neighbourhoods in that game that I came out of it with a feeling of loads of different ways they can be played in different situations. The neighbourhoods were a little bit different than it would be in this game (everyone was in a neighbourhood, some neighbourhoods/PTs which were created were public, so people knew who was going into them.) He was also a mason in that game and had two scum members in his neighbourhood.

(It literally finished today - Micro 600)

He's definitely got an idea of how neighbour mechanics work and how people can play in them. My reaction is that he presented this as an excuse to question or introduce the idea of the neighbour claiming.

Fwiw that was my first neighbor game, and it was anything but normal. I'm not sure the "everyone is in a neighborhood and this is known" situation compares well to a closed format game with a neighbor. I'd thought it interesting if nos had something interesting to say, and if so that might be useful to put into thread. As far as stuff like "how likely is it the other neighbor is a town pr", "how likely is it the other neighbor was mafia", etc. I don't really know.

I'd say it's plausible that nos was killed by a mafia neighbor, but it's hardly a given. One if those "suspicious but not condemning" sorts of things, at least off the top of my head.

As far as whether neighbor should claim, I thought it a reasonable question to ask.

Ps "spk" = strong player kill, I.e. The mafia goes after someone good in night one barring effective pr hunting. Since I haven't played with most of the people here (loop in completed game, I think no one else in completed games), I don't know how well nos compares to the rest of the group.

Pps im rereading, will try and have more useful thoughts tonight.

[mhsmith0]

Since it sucks to be ignored...

I think Maxous is flailing scum here, looking for things to attack. He sees that his initial offer on Lowell is gaining little traction, so he sheep's the first case stated by someone else on Huntress. His big deal is Huntress didn't comment. Yet, Maxous completely ignored the allegation by Lowell that Roshar was fishing for votes on him.

I dunno to be honest. This is starting to turn into the recursive commentary...

Huntress doesn't comment on it
Max doesn't comment on it except to criticize huntress for not commenting on it
You.. actually you had commented on it, and are now also criticizing max for not commenting on it.

I mean, I guess I can see the argument you're actually making here about just looking for something to attack. Especially in the context of max specifically avoiding getting into the weeds on the player he'd been voting, which does seem pretty odd (and specifically more odd than huntress posting essentially a "I'll be back later" note).

Max, what is your opinion on the allegations made by Lowell against roshar?

@smith - I'm surprised you didn't get what Roshar was talking about. I think this post is a bit shade-throwy. You're implying (I think) that Roshar's post doesn't have any content.

What do you think Roshar was talking about? I didn't know what she was talking about since she basically said that she was NOT talking about Lowell. Maybe it was just a question of if nos pr slipped/crumbed? It wasn't clear to me, but you're representing that it was clear to you.

As far as whether it had content, Iirc the issue was it pinged me a bit that she was possibly trying to get us to think about nos's death in a particular way (although it was more of a guess than anything tangible... And I'm not even sure where she wanted us to go with it even if it was an attempt to influence thinking). So I was trying to get her to explain where she was going with that a bit more.

[mhsmith0]

Yo, Mhs, what is your opinion on the allegation (singular) Lowell made against me?

You've been stating recently that you've found me off for one reason or another, and you've stated you'll embark on a re-read of my ISO. You haven't held true with that.

I've been kind of going back and forth on you tbh. With that in mind...

1) How experienced are you at mafia? I see you've been on the site a while but it doesn't look like you've been in many games.
2) Do you have a game where you've been mafia? If so can you point me to it? I skimmed your meta but it looks like all town flips (I easily could have missed something though).

PS Those questions have a point, I promise.

[mhsmith0]

Roshar has done a few things that have pinged me a bit:
- seeming overreaction to clumsy's including her in the list of people he'd consider lynching (which was IIRC basically half the board), notably at 1242and later
- making sure we know that she's taking responsibility for the Clumsy lynch, see 1346, 1347, 1386
- possibly buddying/chainsaw defending of me, notably at 1086, 1175 (although I think her points were entirely reasonable)
- a bit of an over-emphasis on the mechanics side of the neighbor discussion wrt Nos

Those things seem on the surface wolfy... but they're also pretty solidly in range of relatively new town. I'm reminded of a quote about my play (I was town) in my first game...

http://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/view ... us#p860884

Oh, ok. I misunderstood. Not lying, just really, really, disliked Greg so much that he considered total absence better than the posts Greg offered when he returned. That's some pretty serious hostility. Only town gets that self-righteous

There's a certain "HOW DARE YOU" aspect of Roshar's interaction with Clumsy EOD1. For someone really experienced, I'd be really suspicious. For a newer player, whose town meta seems to be aggressive play... much less so. Ditto the "I'm taking responsibility for clumsy lynch and making sure you guys know it".
The more I look at this, the more I think that Roshar is simply talking about whatever the hell she wants to talk about at any given moment, as opposed to it being strategic in some way. Overall more of a newish town than a newish scum feel to her ISO and behavior. Newish scum tend not to be this open and aggressive (or at least not that I've seen).

As far Lowell's specific allegation...

And excuse me if I'm not extremely confident in my scum reads. Not everyone plays the game like you do, Lowell. Excuse me if I like to get fresh input on the main wagon (esp after Clumsy had new posts). What is the point of asking players already on the wagon for their recent feedback? Their vote already is on Clumsy. The only logical reason is to see if they've changed their opinions after Clumsy's recent posting. So how the hell is this pushing the Clumsy wagon?

Nice try, but no. It's not that you wanted "fresh input." If you had, you would have asked someone who hadn't already weighed in. You asked me specifically because you

already knew

my view on clumsy and wanted me to be my typical bombastic self and move the wagon forward so you wouldn't have to.

Relating to Roshar's

In terms of Clumsy's actual content, I don't feel better about it. It's more him feeling bad about being a liability. That parts kinda getting to me. B/c that would be the correct town response to being falsely accused as town. But shouldn't there be some anger and bitterness too? Like 'Screw you guys, I hope it hurts when I flip town?'
Now, on to the actual content. I don't like how his read on me changed. Reading something the first time and thinking it's town, then going back and thinking it's scummy, is a thing. But vice-versa, reading something and finding it scummy the first time, then upon a reread thinking it's town, is just never a thing that has occurred to me. Which makes me think his read on me the first time was empty and going with the flow of things.
He gives lukewarm reads without backing them up and easily retracts them. His read on froot has changed as well, and it's almost making me feel like he gave his original town read on Froot just to appease us.
But his tone is making me hesitate.
Input anyone? Mhs, Apf, replacements maybe?
What do you think Lowell?

I guess I can't completely disregard the possibility that Lowell is correct... but given that she's asking a pretty wide range of people, AND in the context of what comes across as a legit "I really don't know" moment, I struggle to see it as any kind of solid piece of evidence against her. See also

Indeed.
@

Nosferatu,

(mhs and APF too if you can) what's your read on Max and him advocating Huntress for the lynch in 1077 (her only post with game content at the time of the scum read was 971 and Jeanne's 857 and 863) and then his subsequent vote on her a couple pages later? Last I remember you were giving Jake a town read (and he gave you a town read as well). I should add Max found Jeane suspicious in 939.
Just realized his post 1077 he didn't bother voting for either lynch candidates. Much conviction.
Back to this.
VOTE: Maxous
@Max, what happened to your APF scum read in 937? (I'm calling it a scum read ofc, b/c you advocated his lynch earlier).
Guys, deadline is nearing, let's reach common ground on this.

where again she's asking around for other opinions. Again, not completely out of wolf range... but it seems a lot more like a towny perspective showing doubt, and just as importantly, trying to draw people into the conversation. Getting more people involved in issues of importance is a pretty pro-town way of doing things IMO. So yeah, I've got a pretty solid town lead on her right now. I will actively oppose her lynch unless a really strong case is presented.

PS Next I'll probably look into Max. Likely tonight or tomorrow.

[mhsmith0]

FYI, I'm at work right now, and am somewhat depressed after fucking up a LYLO hammer (pretty sure talking about completed games is OK, if not, well, sorry). I'll get to a Max read when I can.

The rule applies to ongoing, not completed games. You're fine.
~Ircher

[mhsmith0]

@max: Lowell has stated intent to hammer, please claim/defend.

[mhsmith0]

If it's wolf!max, I'm mildly surprised he isn't fake claiming. But I'd rather not let him WIFOM his way out of it, and no one is really jumping out at me as a particularly better lynch.

ninja'd: @APF: None of the other cases really jump out at me right now. If you want to hard sell one of them, I'll at least listen. But I'm not going to stand hard against a Max lynch barring a strong case on someone else.

[mhsmith0]

If Max is a wolf, it's kinda weird that there's not much interest in saving him from his buddies. OTOH, if he's town, it's kinda weird that he's not really been fighting it. I think I'd die of shock if he was a mafia PR, so it's VT or goon. Last call: does ANYONE (other than APF) feel like trying to save Max? Otherwise I can't say that I object to a hammer.

[mhsmith0]

@Titus: Hmm, I think that potentially makes sense. Need to mull it over. That said, given that it was town v town, why wouldn't wolves have wanted to take the opportunity to look town by pushing a lynch at a time when the outcome didn't much matter?

PS One other thing I think we now can be confident on: we're almost certainly in 10v3 (no SK, no multiball). I'm not entirely sure how that helps us just yet, but at the least I think it does help narrow the game state.

[mhsmith0]

btw, I'd lol so hard post game if the mafia simply forgot to pm their kill to both Ircher and Dier.

[mhsmith0]

@Garmr: Given that APF was essentially pushing a clear preference for the Clumsy wagon instead of the Max wagon, wouldn't that suggest town given that Max was VT? As mafia, what's the rationale for not just pushing one wagon, but pushing pretty hard against the other one? Looking for town credit given flips? Distancing from buddies who are on Max? Something else?

[mhsmith0]

At any rate, here are the final vote counts from D1 and D2. Given that both Clumsy and Max ended up lynched, I'm not sure how important the D1 shifts between the two wagons are - if anyone cares it might be worth digging into, but I don't feel like it ATM. The other mid-day stuff on D1 was when Nos maxed at out three votes: Lowell, FA (Johnny), RC (Titus). On D2, no one other than Max really got much momentum.

Day 1

Max

(4) - Froot, Titus, Clumsy, Huntress
Lowell (1) -

Nos

Clumsy

(7) (Lynch) - Lowell, FA_Q2, Plain, Mhsmith, Max, Johnny, Rosh
Not Voting (1) - Shaddow

Day 2
Huntress (1) -

Max

Max

(6) (Lynch) - Titus, Johnny, Huntress, Froot, Rosh, Garmr
FA_Q2 (1) - Plain
Lowell (1) - FA_Q2
Rosh (1) - Lowell
Not Voting (1) - Mhsmith

I'll try and dig into the D1 details a bit more when I have the time. Likely won't be tonight.

[mhsmith0]

Yep. The game state is a bit weird to have had two meaningful wagons combined, both on flipped towns, with the third mini-wagon (Nos) also being a confirmed townie. I'd be lying if I said I had an immediate answer for wtf it means.

[mhsmith0]

I care very little of your read on me and I am not going to divert this issue. You seem to forget that you also are being sorted.

I'm going to ask you to answer that question again.

LOL okay. Stay strong.

Lowell, that's twice you're not bothering to answer the question. If you think she's

not actually trying, but just trying to look like you are.

then it'd be nice to see more evidence on that front. But either way, it's a really simple question to answer. I buy that she's either trying to sort you or at least putting in legitimate effort at pretending she is. Either way, it ought to be an easy enough question to answer. Here it is again:

Also, all votes on my are opportunistic as hell. There's the scum trying to score an easy mislynch type, and there's the townie "well, I don't know wtf is happening but at least if I vote Lowell I'll be able to hem and haw afterwards about how unhelpful he was and I won't take the blame." Make sure if you're voting me you're the first type-- I'll take care of them.

Hey Lowell. Which batch would you place Huntress in when she wanted you divert the max lynch and lynch you instead (D1)?

Actually, Lowell, I'm also curious where your town read on me comes from. Ditto on Garmr.

PS FAQ2, you have my attention. Not sure I agree yet but I'm listening. I recall something RC doing a while ago bugging me (I think it was the whole "oh the mod just cleared FA" bit). That plus your case isn't enough to vote, but it's enough to make me want to dig into that slot in further depth.

[mhsmith0]

Given the blowback that happened when I voted Huntress, I am more comfortable here at the moment

Yeah, it's been interesting to see the board's reaction to the huntress wagon. I'm carrying a bit of sympathy to Roshar's argument but still need to go back through and make sure I agree that what she is saying is actually correct (possibly today, definitely by saturday). Off the cuff, I'm a bit worried we might be lurker lynching, but we're definitely not seeing DADV here, that's for sure.

[mhsmith0]

DADV = Dead Air Dead Villager. Basically, the idea that if a wagon isn't getting any resistance, it's probably not against a mafia.

[mhsmith0]

I didn't have time to deal with this today, but tomorrow I'm going to do a summary of my case on Roshar.

ftr I really want to see this. My mental priority right now is to try and sort this issue; I'll listen to other cases, but it seems like these are likely to be the two main wagons today, and I want to hear from huntress before I weigh in on what I think here.

[mhsmith0]

The day just started tho?

It's about the mid point to the "day", 5/10 votes are on one or the other, and right now there doesn't seem to be all the much interest in other wagons. Plenty of time for things to change... but this board hasn't shown all that much interest in wagon-hopping to date.

fwiw, i'm still town reading roshar, and undecided on huntress. Depending on what huntress says... well I guess we'll see.

[mhsmith0]

Re: 1637

1) Reading people as wolf for playstyle, from 1171
from 891, specifically relating to 521, 574, 615
521: she's attacking him for what he's doing, but it's more of a counter to his argument than the explicit driver of a read. She's explicit on this with "It's done by both town and scum" and "Can go both ways though"
574: she's not attacking him for playstyle so much as she's accusing him of lying, explicitly pointing out that if it were the case he'd have defeated his purpose by admitting to trying to draw out buddies.
615: I can potentially see Huntress's point here.
So i can see a bit of AI reading playstyle, but 891 felt more like the drivers of the read are the 476 quick vote after FA's 475, and her comment about Jake's "1-dimensional view of how town would have thought", and her

Also, jake's stance on having not cared about pre-game, then voting for RC on start of D1 with a policy lynch reason, that later changes to some posts he found scummy (posts he didn't bother quoting and posts that came from pre-game) is all over the place. Feels like he's making up things as he goes. And his push on mhs doesn't resonate with me.

So while there's some play-style shade thrown, it's not the fundamental driver. I'd also note that in that post there are some specific times where she seemingly goes out of her way to talk about stuff that could be play-style things that are null "Vindictive. Anti-town. Not necessarily scummy." etc.
I will say it's a bit weird to have an intent to hammer post when some of the post was actively defending stuff of his as null, but that may be a playstyle thing.

2) Other 1171 stuff:
Max and timing - yeah I'd agree w/ Huntress's point that the analysis came later
finding fault rather than wolves: maybe. Did that meta read ever come up?
Max was basically accusing Huntress of non-participation, which is more of a mafia-aligned behavior. Whether said accusation is fair is a different story, but that was the accusation. As far as town reads go, that's putting information into thread, and I'd think that's generally a good thing.

3) 1198:
574 - I think Jake has been sufficiently opaque and unclear in his wording of things in general that I don't particularly have a problem with either Roshar's or Huntress's side of reading what he was up to. Even re-reading that post I don't know what he was trying to say, so... *shrugs*
615 - I agree with Huntress here.
521 - I largely agree with Huntress here. I do think it's reasonable to attack jake's self-defense there, but I'd otherwise agree that it seemed like Jake was trying to sort me out there.

4) 1209:
I'm fine w/ Huntress on the Jake points. Ditto the vote timing.

5) Nos's responses:
Nos 1105 - I'm a bit sympathetic to both sides here. It's difficult for everyone else to read Nos if she isn't being open about her thought process and engagement, and Nos has a playstyle she likes and seems to think is effective. Meh on my end here.
Nos 1106 - I enjoyed Nos's rebuttal here. OTOH, Roshar's point seems reasonable to me. Nos said she'd move it when something else pinged her, 28 pages later, nothing pinged her, and she wasn't really pushing me either. I get that it can potentially be a playstyle thing, but it seems weird IMO. I think it's fair to push on it.

6) Day 2 - I was fine w/ Roshar's stuff on D2 as well (after mulling it over anyway)

7) 1554
I find Huntress's explanations here plausible. Roshar's attribution of wolf motivation is reachy, although not an unreasonable explanation for what happened. But there is entirely reasonable town motivation for what happened too. This is IMO null behavior on Huntress's end.

8) 1577
I feel fine with Huntress's responses here too.

9) 1578
Meh. It's a narrative, and yes, it COULD be the truth. But it feels like conf!bias fitting Huntress's actions into the story that Roshar already believes, as opposed to truly having found anything damning (or being something that Roshar was completely making up).
I'd also note that there is plenty of time to shift wagons EOD. EOD1 was 8:45 PM EST, something like 6 hours after the actual hammer (which itself was about 3 hours after Huntress pushed out Roshar and Lowell as alternatives), which is plenty of time for people to show up and move things around.
1579-80... yeah, I do think it's plausibly genuine. In my mind, Roshar fits a model of aggressive newb!town, which is why I'm town-reading her even with some stuff that feels reachy in my book.

10) Overall: I think Huntress's case on Roshar is a LOT less strong than Huntress seems to think it is, but I can see this as a legitimate thought progression, and I'm increasingly inclined to think the reverse is true as well. If someone wants to try and re-sell these wagons to me, I guess I'll listen, but right now

I ACTIVELY OPPOSE BOTH OF THESE WAGONS

.


So what's a better wagon then? I think the answer is VOTE: Lowell

1) Two of three dead townies reading him as mafia: Clumsy at 1217, Nos at 1219 through 1227 (Max read him town at 1461 though)

2) Plausible NK motive with Nos (she seems like a strong player, so others may have as well, but since she wasn't getting town read, it seems like a more plausible kill for him to have pushed for);

3) Overly cheap town reads as nos noted at 370

4) A pattern of hanging around a lot of peoples' lynchable range without ever really attracting any kind of serious wagon. See 1210, 1316, 1395, 1608, 1637, etc.

5) Posts I really don't like:
590. Tosses in a wolf read of Jake basically as he's under heavy fire.
867. Policy lynch suggestion (after also suggesting "lurker hunt" earlier)
1412 "I'm obvtown" ... for reasons that are completely unclear to me, and apparently much of the rest of the board

Right now I'm town reading Johnny (mainly due to FA), Roshar, and I'm leaning town on Huntress. So join me on Lowell, or convince me someone else is a better lynch.

[mhsmith0]

Bruh I'm open all day

Wahey. Good to know.

ftr I really want to see this. My mental priority right now is to try and sort this issue; I'll listen to other cases, but it seems like these are likely to be the two main wagons today, and I want to hear from huntress before I weigh in on what I think here.

Cool, listen to this:

Vote: mhsmith

Smith hasn't come up with any scumreads on his own and his play in general has been asking questions or coming to watery/town conclusions. He did some meta and then voted for Clumsy but said he was open to other cases (1137.) He speculated about the neighbour - whatever you think about this, it's empty posting at best. His speculation around the time of the Max lynch (1501 and 1503) wasn't helpful and he again asks for any other cases which he'd listen to (1501.)

Cool, listen to this:

1) How does my play in this game differ from my play in the last game we were together (when I was town)?
2) Is it your opinion that being "open to a better case", especially early game, is wolf-indicative? If so, can you explain why?
3) Is it your opinion that I did NOT have a solid read on Clumsy D1? Because my recollection is that I did, and re-reading my posts, I think I was pretty clear on that front. You yourself even said you liked it at 988. Or is it that you thought that I didn't have useful conclusions other than that one?

[mhsmith0]

Yes

[mhsmith0]

Only for a bit tho, about to do dinner

[mhsmith0]

Might as well full claim please, along with who else you've targeted. Sorry for being dense

[mhsmith0]

Ps to my knowledge, role blocking doesn't block kills, only prs. So I don't know I agree w you. Could be wrong though.

Pps were u nos neighbor?

[mhsmith0]

Ps to my knowledge, role blocking doesn't block kills, only prs. So I don't know I agree w you. Could be wrong though.

Pps were u nos neighbor?

This is wrong. Roleblocker blocks kills. How would you seriously think otherwise?

I'd only seen mafia role blockers (which block town prs), not town. "To my knowledge" is wrong reasonably often

[mhsmith0]

At any rate, since it DOES block kills...

VOTE: huntress

[mhsmith0]

Anyone have thoughts on huntress' buddies presuming this wasn't a bizarre gambit (and I'm really not seeing it as a gambit)?

My gut says Lowell was nos' neighbor, and she was signaling to us. No real proof though, but that's kinda what I'm thinking.

If that is correct, I'm struggling to think who could be #3 though.

[mhsmith0]

At any rate, time to claim, huntress.

[mhsmith0]

Also in case I'm NKed (LOLOLOLOLOL), if huntress flips scum titus is her partner. Wanted more time to rolefish, is my guess.

I guess I could see Titus as Huntress partner (I could also plausibly see Lowell and Titus as being the two partners FWIW). It would actually be pretty funny though if the day 1 Clumsy wagon had only one mafia on it, and that one being early.

[mhsmith0]

So you agree the huntress claim is garbage, then, right?

I would be kinda surprised if it was true. Town Tracker AND town Watcher seems like an odd combo in a mini game (though I'll admit to not being anything close to expert at this stuff), and it still doesn't explain the lack of NK on N2 (or why FAQ2 would be the N2 target of a watch). I mean, I suppose she could be a mafia watcher though, I guess that might make sense. But yeah, I'm struggling to see the town watcher claim as legit.

[mhsmith0]

Updated for day 3:

Day 1

Max

(4) - Froot, Titus, Clumsy, Huntress
Lowell (1) -

Nos

Clumsy

(7) (Lynch) - Lowell, FA_Q2, Plain, Mhsmith, Max, Johnny, Rosh
Not Voting (1) - Shaddow

Day 2
Huntress (1) -

Max

Max

(6) (Lynch) - Titus, Johnny, Huntress, Froot, Rosh, Garmr
FA_Q2 (1) - Plain
Lowell (1) - FA_Q2
Rosh (1) - Lowell
Not Voting (1) - Mhsmith

Day 3 (I think)
Titus (1) - FA_Q2
Mhsmith (1) - Froot
Huntress (6) - Rosh, Titus, Johnny, mhsmith0, Garmr, Lowell
FA_Q2 (1) - Plain
Plain (1) - Garmr
Lowell (1) - Mhsmith
Rosh (1) - Huntress

[mhsmith0]

Presuming Huntress flips mafia and Roshar's claim is both true and town (neither is certain but it does seem likely at this stage)...

Day 1

Max

(4) - Froot, Titus, Clumsy,

Huntress

Lowell (1) -

Nos

Clumsy

(7) (Lynch) - Lowell, FA_Q2, Plain, Mhsmith, Max, Johnny,

Rosh

Not Voting (1) - Shaddow

Day 2

Huntress

(1) -

Max

Max

(6) (Lynch) - Titus, Johnny,

Huntress

, Froot,

Rosh

, Garmr
FA_Q2 (1) - Plain
Lowell (1) - FA_Q2

Rosh

(1) - Lowell
Not Voting (1) - Mhsmith

Day 3 (edited from above - removed me and Garmr from prior votes)
Titus (1) - FA_Q2
Mhsmith (1) - Froot

Huntress

(6) -

Rosh

, Titus, Johnny, mhsmith0, Garmr, Lowell
FA_Q2 (1) - Plain

Rosh

(1) - Huntress

Probably Titus's move onto Huntress after Roshar's push deserves the most scrutiny, given the claimed NK block and the plausible outcome that Huntress had been caught by a PR. Will mull that over more tonight, but that's my initial thought about where focus should be. Also suspect Lowell for a few reasons; not sure the hammer is meaningfully positive or negative, so I don't know that I'll dwell on that particular issue too much while re-reading tonight.

[mhsmith0]

If Huntress flips scum, Garmr will likely become my top scumread. Titus would improve a little bit (look at the D1 Max wagon: Froot, Titus, Clumsy, Huntress. I'm not sure there'd be two scum there). I'll have to look more closely at the purported Huntress/Lowell connections.

Can you walk through Garmr being Huntress partner? That's not one that had particularly jumped out at me; what ties the two of them together?

[mhsmith0]

I actually wouldn't be totally shocked if the Clumsy wagon was basically all town; he looked really bad (IMO), and the mafia could basically let town screw it up all on its own, while setting up Max for the D2 lynch. I mean, I definitely don't know that it's right to think that way, but if town is pushing on a mislynch for a player who genuinely looks suspicious, that sort of thing gives the mafia all sorts of options on what to do with their vote.

Reminds me a bit of my mislynch of Ircher on D2 from our newbie game together. There were legit reasons for the lynch, but the lynch was all town (literally all four other townies were on him IIRC). Again, it's not certain, but I wouldn't be shocked if the mafia mainly stayed away from that one. Why bother pushing it when the town will do it instead?

[mhsmith0]

That's very plausibly true. But I wonder if the wolves were more actively pushing on the Max wagon. I could see two of them on the D1 Max wagon, basically thinking that Clumsy would get the axe regardless and then it's a lot easier to push the D2 mislynch. I need to re-read to be sure, but my gut says that two wolves on Max D1 is very possible. I just feel like the Clumsy wagon gave them a lot of options on what to do with their votes, and they probably took a bit of advantage to avoid falling into the easy distancing paradigm.

It's just a theory I'm playing with at this point, but that's my current gut.

ninjad: yes, statistically there's very probably at least one there. But I think that there was likely ONLY one there. If they didn't have to really work to lynch him, then they could use their votes to avoid scrutiny (off Clumsy AND Max) and/or set up the D2 Max mislynch.

[mhsmith0]

FWIW, I'm feeling increasingly confident that Huntress was mafia given that she's not here in twilight. One down, two to go!

[mhsmith0]

(2 game)

WINNING STREAK

[mhsmith0]

My non-turbo record is up to 3-8 now. In the past week, has moved from a total atrocity to merely crappy. Baby steps, baby steps

PS for the record, I wasn't killed for getting role copped

[mhsmith0]

and also for the record, good job fighting against the game state, Titus. That wasn't easy, and I don't think i could have ducked even one lynch in your shoes there.

[mhsmith0]

fyi setup review thred is locked

[mhsmith0]

When were people accusing you of cheating FA? I don't remember that happening, though honestly it's been long enough I legit could have simply forgotten.

[mhsmith0]

sure

dependent on the game and players , I will think about it. not sure if I ever join a normal game ever again though. I just don't like some people who are repeatedly playing in that queue.

you can always look for games to replace into. there's usually a decent stream of them, including on D1.

[mhsmith0]

k

[mhsmith0]

meh, everyone has off games. i recently finished one on PD where I was pretty badly wrong for most of the game.

[mhsmith0]

I'll also note that my saltiness would have been off the charts if town found a way to lose this one.

[mhsmith0]

I'd probably say Roshar was the best of the town players. It's worth noting that her night action was informed by her day read of Huntress; without the day read, the night action doesn't work. And she also did a good job driving the board to develop reactions to her case rather than just dump a claim in at the start of the day. The nature of how she pushed the case created the potential for associations to develop. It's easy to say "well that's just what you should do", but it's not always easy to pull it off.

[mhsmith0]

Speaking of influence, it was super fun to be dead and have the town seemingly ignore my Titus case

[mhsmith0]

Most of the town. I did appreciate you quoting it. I was kinda raging a bit in dead chat about being ignored. I'd have gone pretty nuts if this game turned into a loss on my record with three straight ML's.

[mhsmith0]

In fairness, I wasn't really doing all that great the first two days. Part of that was the unfortunate situation demotivating me somewhat, and part of it was that I kind of was nerfing my game a bit to avoid the NK (IIRC). Once Roshar role outed, AND there was a (preusmable) wolf flip, I took advantage of that to throw down some analysis (since Roshar seemed like a very likely victim if town, and killer if mafia [i.e. a bussing situation]). I suspect that got me killed, but so be it.

[mhsmith0]

I suspect it did. But I figured they were shooting you anyway so it didn't really matter. Given that you RB'd Titus N4 buying town another day, I think it was overall ok in the end.

[mhsmith0]

I was also pleasantly surprised when i discovered the clumsy wagon was ALL town after my analysis. i figured odds were one was still on there, but it being zero after making that point was kinda nice

[mhsmith0]

@Loop: I'd say you struggled the first few days and played really well starting D4. You were wrong in your read of jake D1 but so what, townies vote townies a lot. Speaking as someone who I think does relatively better in late game than early game (FA may agree with this, *shakes fist at FA/RC/Ranger* for open 635), you did well when it mattered most.

PS I do appreciate your picking up my dead read. Dead townies can be useful resources sometimes.

[mhsmith0]

Rosh, at the time, was a townbeard.

Huntress had the right call in not having her do the kill. I figured that people would not do the whole scumread for being smart thing. As town, I would have STILL voted Huntress.

I was rambling about this in dead chat, but...

1) Your early hop onto the Huntress wagon seemed informed by knowing that Roshar was an RB (or at least JK). That kind of knowledge was IMO much more likely to come from a wolf than a town given the non NK.

2) I don't think that your claim (even night doctor) was at all consistent with your actions wrt Roshar/Huntress. If you were truly an even night doctor, it'd be pretty natural to be suspicious of Roshar, especially once she outed as an RB, as opposed to say a cop (or 1-shot cop). IMO your actions and your claim weren't aligned.

[mhsmith0]

You could probably stand to be less blunt and more forgiving in your criticisms. Also, given that rc was a wolf, and his commentary there was IIRC the first thing that kinda pinged me on his slot, I'm not sure how valid the "mod confirmed us town" argument really is. I think the mod confirmed you weren't both wolves together, but v/w probably gets a similar step in (ditto multi-ball, wolf/sk etc).

[mhsmith0]

Mass claim on D1 breaks this.

Does it? Say we have mass claim, and still mislynch clumsy and Max...

N1 huntress kills me
N2 garmr jails roshar, Titus or huntress murders nos
N3 lots of options, but probably huntress kills roshar

So unless I get REALLY lucky and jail huntress, or town lynches Mafia d1 or d2, I'd think an early mass claim would destroy the town. The setup isn't built for easy safe claims, but IS built so that it's hard for town to win it at night, and so that anyone forced to role claim early is in serious jeopardy. No cop, no vig, investigatives are countered by ninja, rb countered by jk.

Town won't likely get much from prs, but wolves HAVE to hit prs or they get poe'd by like day 3 or 4. Off the cuff I'd say that's reasonably balanced.

[mhsmith0]

I was presuming that all town prs are believed, and that all Mafia claim Vt. It MIGHT be realistically possible that even rb gets lynched as a claim instead, though I think it's a ballsy Mafia to claim even jk just to lynch the rb one day. My guess is it would cut the game down to 6vt and 3 Mafia as lynchables, which simplifies things earlier but basically kills the town by cutting off possibility of useful night actions (again, barring me getting REALLY lucky night one, or town lynching Mafia day one).

Even worse, it simplifies the game for Mafia by making it clear who they shouldn't bother pushing, whereas with l-1 claiming, theyre forced to justify heir pushes to l-1 in the first place. IMO town mass claim on day one would have been super town negative.

[mhsmith0]

I think what this setup really needed was a role cop

I guess the question is whether a 1-2 shot strongman is better or worse than even jailkeeper. Off the cuff I'm not sure, since jk can block the tracker pretty effectively.

I def. agree setup wasn't built to make life easy for fake claims. Otoh, I still think it was otherwise pretty decent for the Mafia. Town roles could easily interfere with each other, there's no easy "follow the cop" type strategy to win just from prs, ninja could create false clears, and Mafia still had day talk, which not all setups allow, etc.

I def. don't think it's balanced in a standard way, but I do think it was reasonably balanced. Unless "four town prs" is by itself massively unbalancing, I'd say the relatively nerfed prs, and the counters built into the Mafia roles, make it balanced compared to other setups I've seen. Eyeballing the mini normal list, I don't think this was more town friendly than 1763, another one that had four town prs and additional Mafia power to balance it.

[mhsmith0]

I think what this setup really needed was a role cop

Ew

Aw come on I thought it was funny

[mhsmith0]

Wrong emoticon meant
Stupid iPad

[mhsmith0]

You could probably stand to be less blunt and more forgiving in your criticisms. Also, given that rc was a wolf, and his commentary there was IIRC the first thing that kinda pinged me on his slot, I'm not sure how valid the "mod confirmed us town" argument really is. I think the mod confirmed you weren't both wolves together, but v/w probably gets a similar step in (ditto multi-ball, wolf/sk etc).

Not really. That was a massive logical idiocy in general and I could not call anyone out on it because so many simply nodded their heads in agreement with something that is counter to mafia strategy in general.

That was directed at jake, not you. Fwiw I'd think killing neighbor makes sense if there was like a scum slip or the like in neighbor chat, or for the "I bet neighbor is a pr" take.

[mhsmith0]

Though simply ASSUMING that neighbor MUST be Mafia is of course dumb.

[mhsmith0]

Neat thread. Wondering what Bells had to say but I didn't read anything prior to my replacing so it probably doesn't matter.

Doc claim wasn't bad, Titus, but the actual roles in the game made a doc seem too farfetched

Town had a lot of power and scum had no safe PR claims.

Investigative gets countered twice. RB was present. JK tipped. Doc was the only play.

I would have been far more likely to believe a vanilla town.

I was a PR though. The absolute worst part of your claim was not the doc portion though - it was the fact that you claimed even. That did not jive at all nor does it fit with RB/JK. Too much protection and not even distribution with odd/even.

Odd would have been bad too though, since I'd flipped odd jk. Would have been even more OP on that side. I think the game state was simply unsuited to fake claims; IMO that's a balance to the fairly nerfed town prs and the Mafia counters to them.