Mini 2039: uPicketyPicketyPick Mafia Endgame
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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If people think there's even the slightest chance that Kokichi really is an IC then there's nothing I can do about that. Besides, he's just going be lynched tomorrow anyway and I doubt the 1 extra night is going to benefit the scum team too much.In post 3089, Elbirn wrote:2. How do you not want him turbolynched if you know that hes lying?I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Just you and Elbrin. You can consider my vote to be on Kokichi too though.In post 3090, Gamma Emerald wrote:What’s Kokichi at votewiseI mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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You are. I've made a strong case of why your quest and claim are complete bs and you haven't even tried to justify yourself or make a single excuse. That's because you know that there's nothing you can say or do to get yourself out of this hole and you're just staying quiet as to not look any more scummy than you already do.In post 3095, Kokichi Oma wrote:
I'm not.In post 3088, mutantdevle wrote:Why are you still avoiding the fact that you are blatantly lying about your role?I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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I didn't remember this but I looked at his ISO and he didn't say anything.In post 3099, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Does anyone remember what Kokichi said about Varsoon’s claim off the top of their head?In post 3096, Kokichi Oma wrote:Imagine lynching the IC rofl. This website never ceases to amaze meI mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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My issue is that NK15 barely posted in that game. 5 posts is not enough to judge what someone is going to be as a certain alignment.In post 3102, Kokichi Oma wrote:idk what his issue is. but why does Mutant matter when it comes to your vote?I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Yeah. And, as far as we can tell because Kokichi is vague as shit and has refused to clarify, Kokichi is claiming he unlocked it by not performing a night action during night 1.In post 3116, northsidegal wrote:kokichi is claiming that ic is his quest role
he wouldn't know his quest role before it unlockedI mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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How is that even a quest you'd get though? You have no abilities to perform! Do you have an explanation for that?In post 3119, Kokichi Oma wrote:YesI mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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I must have missed this post and, although it clears up part of my concern, I still find it highly questionable that you'd have this quest in the first place given you have no night actions to even perform.In post 3122, Kokichi Oma wrote:In post 2387, Kokichi Oma wrote:By the way I wasnt posting first half of the night because one of my roles says I cant do anything at night to unlock it. So i assumed i couldnt talk in night thread. But mod clarified it meant no actions by me. (Even tho i have no actions to do right now. I'm guessing when i unlock my ability from winning a mini game it's a night action.)I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Not much I can do here when Kokichi and MariaR refuse to explain anything about their opinion on NK15. Though I think it says a lot when I can cite and explain multiple reasons that he is town and they can't even explain how 5 posts relate to this game.In post 3129, Gamma Emerald wrote:Wild still like mutant/Chibi and Kokichi/Maria to hash out the NK15 situationI mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Here's the game from my point of view:
- Various people claimed various things at the start of day 1. Nico is a miller. Kokichi can unlock someone else's minigame role PM if they win a minigame. MariaR is almost* death proof and can become fully death proof if they get into any PT.
- Then RC and Varsoon started 1v1ing for pages upon pages of pure shit. That's probably why the game is so long tbh.
- We also found out that firebringer could triple vote which RC later claimed he was responsible for. As I understand it, firebringer can only triple vote on players that RC is already voting for but only if he makes it clear that he isn't just sheeping RC.
- The lynch was kinda going towards Varsoon and Varsoon claimed a role that had a chance to be an IC so momentum died down on that and people didn't want to lynch RC either so they agreed to stop 1v1ing.
- Gamma was then the most popular wagon because he did something scummy that I can't remember at this point but then firebringer tried to hammer with his triple vote but failed because he didn't meet the right conditions to triple vote.
- Varsoon then started up the 1v1 again which got him lynched and it turned out that whilst he was town his role claim was only partially true and IC wasn't one of the things he could get.
- During the day, there were 2 minigames which were won by RC and Elbrin respectively.
- RC's ability allowed him to make NSG untargetable to any and all night actions.
- Elbrin's ability meant that the thread was open and we could lynch during the night phase.
- During the night phase, nico was almost lynched but then someone prevented it from happening.
- NK15 almost got lynched after that but some of us defended him so then a lot of people switched to Kokichi but because firebringer's vote again didn't count as triple Kokichi wasn't lynched and the night phase ended in a no lynch.
- RC was night killed. I'm sure RC and Varsoon are now having a fun time in the dead chat knowing that they were both town. RC had unlocked both his quest and minigame role PM but one of them wasn't revealed to us in his flip.
- Today, NK15, Kokichi and MariaR have been the most popular wagon. Whilst some of us are strongly against the NK15 wagon, it's generally agreed that Kokichi and MariaR are acceptable lynches.
- It was looking like Kokichi was 100% going to be today's lynch but then he claimed that he unlocked his quest PM which means that he will become an IC tonight. So by the way things are going, MariaR is probably going to be today's lynch and she doesn't seem to care about that.
- Kokichi's quest was to not perform a night action but as I have pointed out the role that Kokichi claimed doesn't have a night action to not perform which makes Kokichi's claim very suspicious.
- Firebringer won today's first minigame but hasn't said what they got from it. We're currently waiting on the 2nd minigame before finalising the lynch. It seems that there is going to be a pattern of no one wanting to hammer until both minigames have ended which may result in each day going quite slowly like it has done today.
My personal read on Nibbui has wobbled a fair bit throughout this game. At times I have scum read them but they've also had a fair few posts that I've really liked. Overall, I'd say my read on Nibbui was somewhat of a low priority scum lean though. So if you could do something to give me a conclusion one way or the other then that would be great.I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Huh, that's interesting. I wonder why RC and Elbrin were told immediately and you haven't been? For the record, I in no way expect you to claim your minigame role, I was just stating that you hadn't.In post 3138, Firebringer wrote:
I haven’t been told what I won lolIn post 3136, mutantdevle wrote:Firebringer won today's first minigame but hasn't said what they got from it. We're currently waiting on the 2nd minigame before finalisingI mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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You being here means jack shit if you're not contributing anything.
I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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In post 3144, Succinct wrote:
Links to these specific areas? (Exact claims, starting+end points of described situations.)In post 3136, mutantdevle wrote:Nico is a miller. Kokichi can unlock someone else's minigame role PM if they win a minigame. MariaR is almost* death proof and can become fully death proof if they get into any PT.
Gamma was then the most popular wagon because he did something scummy that I can't remember at this point but then firebringer tried to hammer with his triple vote but failed because he didn't meet the right conditions to triple vote.
NK15 almost got lynched after that but some of us defended him so then a lot of people switched to Kokichi but because firebringer's vote again didn't count as triple Kokichi wasn't lynched and the night phase ended in a no lynch.In post 78, NicoRobin wrote:Oh, and I am a Miller.In post 91, Kokichi Oma wrote:If I win the mini game, I can unlock a person's 2nd role PM for them. So I can unlock whoever we all think is towniest. Sound good?In post 264, Kokichi Oma wrote:Btw I forgot to mention. If I win a 2nd time I can unlock TWO more peoples roles.In post 19, MariaR wrote:Hello I need to be added to any type of PT thank you.In post 24, MariaR wrote:I become death proof.In post 27, MariaR wrote:Well my quest has 2 parts getting into the pt is one. I'm already somewhat not killable at night but I know if I finish it it gets better
Spoiler: Gamma & FB
Spoiler: NK15
Spoiler: & KokichiI mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Oh yeah I forgot about that one. It also reminds me that I think someone else claimed something that I can't remember. Unless the person I'm thinking of there IS nico lol.In post 3163, Succinct wrote:Why was this excluded?I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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I'd like you to explain your Kokichi read too. Unless it's simply that you're taking his IC claim at face value?In post 3163, Succinct wrote:Elbirn read takes explaining.I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Have I had much interaction with your main account?In post 3175, Succinct wrote:
Mostly, sheeping mutant.In post 3174, northsidegal wrote:i am interested to hear your reasoning on nk15 being townI mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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I think you should just drop the subject to be honest. If succinct is not mastina then none of this matters in the slightest. If it's found out that succinct is mastina, then I think FB has made it clear that he'd replace out due to whatever disdain there is between them. There is nothing more too it than that. I'd hate to see FB replace out, but that's his choice to make. And if he's making it because he thinks things would get toxic otherwise then it's good for him that he can be mature about it. Nothing you say about it is going to make him change his mind and settling something like this belongs outside of a mafia game.In post 3190, Gamma Emerald wrote:No. But it does come from me trying to be the mediator in things, which is a frequent thing I do. I kinda lost touch with that dude of myself earlier but now I’m connected again.I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Lol what. Nico claimed miller so there is no way that NSG has a cop inno on them. Unless nico claimed miller when they're not a miller???In post 3210, Succinct wrote:Elbirn said NSG was softing a cop inno. (I felt that was a misleading narrative.)I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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100% yeah. Elbrin is one of my strongest scum reads. I plan to case him on day 3/4 depending on how Kokichi resolves. Though if you wanna push him at any point then I'll jump in to back you up with the numerous scummy shit he's done throughout the game.In post 3231, Succinct wrote:You understand my suspicion, yes?I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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1. I doubt that Nico is town fake claiming miller with NSG having a cop inno. I think that NSG's read on Nico is nothing more than just that, a read. Nico has done something that has made NSG think she is strongly town. I don't know whether that's because of meta or a PT we don't know about but I don't see a reason why NSG wouldn't claim a mechanical reason to town read Nico when NSG literally can't be targetted by the mafia unless she doesn't actually have much to support the read.In post 3232, Elbirn wrote:How else do you explain NSG behavior around nico?
If I'm scum, why do I want town to stop role fishing an investigative?
2. As scum, you wouldn't want town to role fish because you wouldn't want us learning information that we don't have. If you know something that we don't then that gives you an advantage. Additionally, "we shouldn't role fish" is an easy defence for scum who don't want to talk about information they know. Both for the reason above and because you'd have to fake theorising if you knew the answer. Tbh, I don't understand why you're so paranoid about town questioning NSGs role. If we figure it out, what are scum going to do about it, huh?I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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You're reading that as "I don't have any urgency because I'm scum and don't have to worry about being night killed". But it was mostly "If Kokichi is indeed an IC then I will be pushing Elbrin instead and if Kokichi isn't an IC I don't want to do anything that will get in the way of that lynch".In post 3235, Not Known 15 wrote:Mutant is likely Mafia for that sentence. Why would town wait to case someone when they could die at any night?I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Umm, actually - if people decided to target me and ignore shooting Gamma's ship then there is still a chance he could have won.In post 3241, jjh927 wrote:In the interests of not unnecessarily prolonging this minigame, mutantdevle wins, as he is guaranteed the victory in 2 turns.
Now that the minigame is over, are we allowed to discuss it?I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Oh yeah, I forgot that the dead can't shoot lol. I shouldn't make posts right after I wake up.In post 3244, northsidegal wrote:i was already dead at that point, it was just you and gamma.I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Lynching Elbrin is certainly an option. Not so sure we have the time left in the day to explore it though.In post 3246, Not Known 15 wrote:
No, lynching MariaR.In post 3245, Firebringer wrote:by ending the day do u mean lynching elbirn?
cause I am also fine with that.I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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That no lynch doesn't technically count towards anything. It was basically a vig kill that we failed to get through and it has no impact on the number of mislynches we can afford.In post 3312, Not Known 15 wrote:We are in a bad spot with no scum lynches and 1 No Lynch.
And we're not in as bad of a position as you'd think. Kokichi is caught scum and we've managed to produce a townblock of 5. The PoE pool besides Kokichi is only 3 people and with a mislynch to spare we're headed towards a guaranteed victory. The only way I can see this going wrong is if there are somehow 3 kills in the night all on town.I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Good. The inno result still counts for both you and Gamma then.In post 3315, northsidegal wrote:according to jjh i was removed on the turn of the second day rather than at night 1I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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The current pool of mafia is you, Kokichi, Chibi and Nico. Obviously, from your point of view it would 100% the other 3. I don't care how unlikely a scenario you think something is, if it is mechanically so then your opinion is irrelevant. If you really think that the mafia team isn't Kokichi, Nico and Chibi then what you are telling me is that you yourself are one of the mafia.In post 3318, Not Known 15 wrote:That means... IF Succinct is town then the Mafia are Chibi, Kokichi(who lied with the IC claim) and Nico Robin.... let me check something... No there is something still wrong here.
ChibiBear and Kokichi Oma is an unlikely scenario. Either Succinct is lying or they were redirected or... or we have a godfather.
Because Nico+Kokichi/Chibi is entirely possible I cannot rule out Succinct being town and suffering from a godfather.
Succinct could also be mafia, and then all these clears are fake.
Succinct being redirected was what they were concerned about originally, however, I was able to prove with 99% certainty that this was not the case. For Nibbui to have been redirected night 1 then a whole load of coincidences would have had to have taken place that are, in my opinion, beyond reasonable plausibility.
If succinct is actually mafia with this grand fakeclaim then I have a backup plan in place to expose them as such which doesn't require me to be alive. I don't wish to give any more details on this.
The only valid point you have raised here is that we've forgotten about the possibility of a godfather. That said, I don't think it matters too much as it will soon become apparent if the lynch pool is inaccurate. And, to be honest, your post here kinda seems like you're trying to discredit the townblock that has formed. If you're town then I don't so why you would do that as, although you may be lynched as part of the PoE pool, we'd win the game regardless of that. So I don't get what your problem is here?I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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If you have a mechanical reason to suggest that our PoE pool is wrong then you should sure as hell be claiming that.In post 3324, Not Known 15 wrote:First of all, there is the possibility that I am the only town in the POE.... but I am pretty sure that I am not - due to reasons you won't buy(since they rely on me being town).
Second - there is no way that the mod lets a cop like this loose unchecked. That means that the claim is either fake or has a downside ... such as a Godfather.
And I think you seem to be overestimating the power of Succinct's claimed role. The role has only been this powerful due to luck as opposed to its inherent design.I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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I also knew it was a lie but only based on the fact that it was a shit claim that had several holes in it. If claiming IC, in general, is something that Kokichi has done before several times as both scum and mafia then I'd be willing to accept that it's NAI but I strongly think that Kokichi is scum regardless and I've even explained to you why I'm unhappy with you trying to push the lynch away from Kokichi.In post 3331, Succinct wrote:
Kokichi claims IC in many games.In post 3330, Elbirn wrote:@Succinct, kokichi lied about being an IC. That's a confirmed scum right there.
I knew it was a lie from moment I replaced in. It's nai.I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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This proves to me that you don't understand how the role works.In post 3333, Not Known 15 wrote:you claimed a role that could possibly clear 3 people Night ONE... and 2 each following night...I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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10/13 chance Gamma is town * 9/12 chance the first person he adds is town * 8/11 chance that the second person he adds is town = 42% chance that everyone in the PT is town * 3/11 chance that Nibbui picked someone in the PT = 11% chance Nibbui got the result * 7/8 chance that Nibbui even lived to tell anyone = 9% chance that this could have happened. That's based on the information we know alone. There's obviously going to have been other things that could have reduced the chances this could have happened. Eg. the chances that the person selected is in multiple PTs.In post 3343, Not Known 15 wrote:The likelyhood of a Night 1 triple Innocent is high enough(Gamma +2; and town are in the majority) in this setup.I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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To get into the PT we are in you need to target someone that you didn't intend to. Since Nibbui was added to the PT as a result of N1, it was a fair assumption that they were redirected. However, I also experienced something that Nibbui experienced when being added to the PT that is either the reason we were added or one hell of a coincidence. From that, we can then conclude that there is no redirector in this setup otherwise there would be more people in the PT.In post 3361, ChibiBear wrote:Succinct, if you don't mind answering, why did you initially think you were redirected on N1? And how did mutant confirm that you weren't redirected?I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Not really lol. This game is fun when I get to be solvey but it just gets so boring when we're just waiting for the minigames.In post 3379, Elbirn wrote:Any reason for this aside from trying to prevent the game from slowing down?I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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I'm fairly certain NSG said pretty much this a while ago. NSG clearly doesn't wanna talk about it, annoying as that is.In post 3387, ChibiBear wrote:NSG are you going to answer me at all? I'll even take 'I'd rather not say' over nothing.I mostly just lurk now.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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Well, that was a fun game. It's nice to finally get my first win as scum
I think y'all will find the scum PT an interesting read (it's 15 pages). The town definitely played well given the circumstances but too many mistakes were made and we were able to exploit them and manipulate them to our advantage. Just about everything went our way during this game with the only real exception being the open night phase where we were expecting RC to face more criticism after Varsoon's flip and for Kokichi to actually get lynched thereafter - both of which were easy to work with.
jjh, I really liked the role madness aspect of this game. It was incredibly fun to think about how we needed to use each role and how we could counter what we knew others were doing. I really appreciate the effort you put into designing that. Unfortunately, the mini games were pretty much directly responsible for the stagnation in the game since it made people not want to use their vote until the minigames were over. Everyone then either had their minigame PM, was dead, or didn't really care about winning another minigame which kinda devalued the entire system. Though, of course, that's not something you could have predicted. The best minigame (in my opinion) was definitely the battleships one. I'm glad that my strategy there was a winning one. I look forward to your next game since I've thoroughly enjoyed the last 2 games that you've hostedI mostly just lurk now.
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