Mini 1650: Greatest Idea Mafia (Game Over)

[Dechs Kaison]

I'm here.

[Dechs Kaison]

I'm thinking we should start with a soft claim? -Maybe the halves of our cards that we

didn't

choose. I think that works nicely, but input is good, because there might be issues with that I missed.

I pushed this exact strategy in my last GIM and it worked out really well for me.

I was scum, though, so let's not do that here.

[Dechs Kaison]

VOTE: Soviet Crocolisk

Let's all claim our alignment cards. Vanilla Townie.

Go

Yeah, this is exactly what I did.

I even claimed a non counterclaim-able "town lover."

VOTE: WW

[Dechs Kaison]

Hey everybody! ^_^

You're late.

Tell TTH I said Hi.

[Dechs Kaison]

Oh.

Well then.

Hi. Been too long.

[Dechs Kaison]

This is Greatest Idea Mafia. We probably have two factions of bad guys to find and the game is probably not anywhere near balanced (honestly, that could work in our favor*). It's going to be very easy for people to appear to be scumhunting while actually being loners or with another faction. We'll know a lot more about how many factions we've got to deal with after the first Night when we see how many kills happen.

*My other GIM game had one werewolf, one alien, a Saulus and the rest were town. It was unbalanced way in town's favor.

[Dechs Kaison]

How about you just get some sleep or let your other half do the analysis for now?

[Dechs Kaison]

Easy: If he's a survivor, it prevents mafia from shooting him and it prevents us from copping him.

[Dechs Kaison]

One player in my other GIM game did something similar with his first post. He claimed Town Black Goo. Turned out he was telling the truth. I figured that was the case, but I tried to get him lynched a bunch of times anyway because I believed the Black Goo bit and I needed to kill him without targeting him.

[Dechs Kaison]

No, his claim is that he's town. It would be reasonable to suspect that he's 3rd party, though, because the nature of PGO makes him unverifiable.

[Dechs Kaison]

It let me know what roles I didn't have to worry about and in general helped me confuse the town with completely irrelevant information, all while appearing to be helpful to town. Actually, because one player was smart enough to lie about that revealed information, we were able to catch one scum player. I got all kinds of town cred for the very push that you just started here.

[Dechs Kaison]

Also, you're asking the wrong question. What you should be asking is: How does that information help the town?

It doesn't.

[Dechs Kaison]

Ok, let's try this again. What does that information do to help town?

Convince me that it does.

[Dechs Kaison]

You didn't answer my question.

Right back at you, except that I asked first.

Also, it's a burden of proof thing. Someone claims that the information is helpful to town, they must provide reasons for that. That which is asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

[Dechs Kaison]

More than that, I already explained why it doesn't help. The information of what we didn't choose benefits the scum team by helping them play around what roles they can know don't exist. The information can be used to confuse the town. It also helps scum claim safe cards when we back them into a corner by knowing which ones are already taken, so we reduce the chance of a counterclaim. It's a very bad thing to just throw those cards out there.

[Dechs Kaison]

I am a town 1 shot paranoid gun owner
Discarded town ascetic and town lover

Thought of claiming vigilante but investigatove roles might have died if they had visited me


Enemy factions wont dare target me unless they have redirectors and town should be smart

Who can spot the lie? or the misinformtion?

because this is greatest idea mafia and you only discard 1 card.

UNVOTE: whoever i voted earlier, kitty?
VOTE: kiwi

That looks to me like an honest mistake (one that I've made and seen other make in GIM). He's thinking that he took the town one shot paranoid gun owner card and discarded his other two, but he took the alignment of at least one of those. It makes it easier to mistake with the way the Mod presented our choices in the PM when he showed us all the combinations.

[Dechs Kaison]

It let me know what roles I didn't have to worry about and in general helped me confuse the town with completely irrelevant information, all while appearing to be helpful to town. Actually, because one player was smart enough to lie about that revealed information, we were able to catch one scum player. I got all kinds of town cred for the very push that you just started here.

Completely irrelevant = catching scum?

Please explain how it catches scum.

[Dechs Kaison]

Claiming was pretty smart if you were a survivor.

Claiming it was fairly dumb if you were town or scum. As town, you'd want to act as hardcore town as you could, draw the night kill and take out a scum with you. As scum, you'd want to act scummy enough to get investigated and take out the cops.

[Dechs Kaison]

This is me in my last GIM game:

"Every one of us that's town must have had a town card to get the alignment from. We have nothing to lose by revealing what that card was if we're town, because it's a role we didn't choose. Scum, however, will resist because that's the card they took their role from, and if we figure out that they're scum, we start to know what the scum team is capable of."

I was totes scum.

[Dechs Kaison]

Here's more good quotes:

"Exactly. There's nothing it gives us, so there's no reason not to share it with the Town.

What you've just done is claimed a specific card. You either had that card, or you're making it up.

If you actually had that card, then we know you could be town and if you're not, you're a scum PI (I can't see why you'd have chosen that, though).

If you're making it up, then it's a risk you're taking because it could be counter claimed."

"Scum has every reason to hide their [used] town card, because it tells us which role they chose."

For reference: http://diestoremoval.com/forums/viewtop ... 111&t=3059

[Dechs Kaison]

I even kept a spreadsheet of the cards we'd seen and the ones that were claimed and the ones that were revealed. Every bit of it was just a distraction from actually hunting scum.

Believe me, we really do not want to go down this road. It doesn't help the town at all.

[Dechs Kaison]

Here's more good quotes:

"Exactly. There's nothing it gives us, so there's no reason not to share it with the Town.

What you've just done is claimed a specific card. You either had that card, or you're making it up.

If you actually had that card, then we know you could be town and if you're not, you're a scum PI (I can't see why you'd have chosen that, though).

If you're making it up, then it's a risk you're taking because it could be counter claimed."

"Scum has every reason to hide their [used] town card, because it tells us which role they chose."

For reference: http://diestoremoval.com/forums/viewtop ... 111&t=3059

For the record, this is almost as assuredly scum as the person TTH is voting. Carry on.

~Jingle

Uh, yeah, that's my point. Those were quotes from me as scum playing in a GIM. Anyone saying stuff like that is probably scum.

[Dechs Kaison]

Not really, but I'm townreading around him.

Can you explain what "townreading around him" means?

The phrase means he's generating town reads on other players by looking at their interactions with that particular player. Phrased another way, he doesn't have a read on Player X, but the interactions between X, Y, and Z are leading him to townread Z or Y.

[Dechs Kaison]

lol no. I read the mafia wiki and it said it was a good idea

so I fail to see how that is alignment indicative.

It's alignment indicative because he made a town motivated claim ("weak cop" to draw night kill as a hider).

It's definitely more of a newbtell, though. He clearly didn't do his research on the available cards.

[Dechs Kaison]

I hope Dechs Kaison is town.

I'll take this as a compliment. Thanks.

But seriously, you have the least content out of anyone here. Say something relevant to the game.

[Dechs Kaison]

@Dechs
Maybe it was not clear I was talking about Kiwi and the fact he backed down after Prawn's post not being town indicative, I agree that what prawn did is likely coming from a new townie.

Ah, yes, I read that wrong. Apologies.

[Dechs Kaison]

I am a town 1 shot paranoid gun owner
Discarded town ascetic and town lover

Thought of claiming vigilante but investigatove roles might have died if they had visited me


Enemy factions wont dare target me unless they have redirectors and town should be smart

I want to go back to this.

Facts:
-We know he discarded the Ascetic card.
-There's only one PGO card.
-There are three Town Lover cards.
-Zaicon used 134 cards to generate our roles.
-13 players times 3 cards is 39, leaving 71% of the cards completely safe to fake claim.

So, sure, it looks bold that Kiwi claimed all his cards right away, but the Town Lover card is completely safe to fake claim (in fact, it's the one I used in my scum GIM game I keep talking about). Then there's Paranoid Gun Owner. Maybe he did have this, but even if he didn't, it's 71% likely that none of us will be able to counterclaim it. This is why I keep telling you guys that revealing your alignment cards early gives us no benefit. It's entirely possible that Kiwi had a scum card in place of the Town Lover he claimed and is a Scum Paranoid Gun Owner. We cannot make any determination from the claimed cards. The math doesn't support making those logical leaps.

I'm using this stuff to make a point. I'm not calling Kiwi scum. I want to be clear on that. In fact, I'm very sure he's not a town threat. I get the feeling he's town, but at worst he's a survivor.

Scum PGO wouldn't claim it at all. Claiming like that brought on a lot of attention and put himself in a position where the only way to deal with him is to lynch him. Regardless of whether he's a PGO or not, that's definitely not a position scum wants to be in.

So Kiwi is in my "let's definitely not lynch him today" pile. We can use the PGO to our advantage.

[Dechs Kaison]

If prawn is an alt he is scum

Out of game questions: Is it common on this site for users to have many alts? Is there a way to find out if an account is an alt (I guess that would defeat the purpose of them, but maybe people don't always do their research)?

[Dechs Kaison]

@Kiwi

Because you are a paragon of scumhunting logic?

All I have seen from you are attacks to anyone who dares to question you plus some random apologies thrown in the mix when the screw-ups are too big to cover,

if you are scum poor KittyCupCake is likely having to carry you so hard it hurts to read and that is what is most disturbing.

I'm just going to say that if Kiwi was scum and I was on his team, I would be bussing the hell out of him right now.

[Dechs Kaison]

It's entirely possible that Kiwi had a scum card in place of the Town Lover he claimed and is a Scum Paranoid Gun Owner. We cannot make any determination from the claimed cards.

I don't think anyone is saying to clear him based on his card claims? -I agree with the rest of your reasoning through here, though.

I don't see anyone doing that either. I was just using his situation as an example to point out how useless the claiming our cards thing is.

[Dechs Kaison]

You misunderstand me. You in this game, focusing on your previous scumgame are probably scum. But we're already voting scum, so you're fine for now.

~Jingle

I understand your suspicion, but you'd have to read the game to see exactly how much of it is recurring here.

I had a Day One Town Black Goo claim. "Don't target me or you'll be cult." Day one PGO here.

We're all got started down the same "Let's reveal our Town Alignment cards!"

I'm also kinda new to Mafia as a whole, and this is the first time I've played a game with the same setup as something I've done before. It's possible that I'm biased in that sense and just seeing similarities.

[Dechs Kaison]

As scum you want to cast suspicion on someone and hope town takes the bait and does the dirty work for you

What was scummy about Soviet Crocolisk?

People who doubt my claim shouldn't just mention it as a sidenote.

If I am lying about my claim I am 100% scum. Theres no reason to lie as town.

There are plenty of reasons to lie as town.

[Dechs Kaison]

I actually lie a lot more when I'm town than when I'm scum.

[Dechs Kaison]

Not really, but I'm townreading around him.

Can you explain what "townreading around him" means?

The phrase means he's generating town reads on other players by looking at their interactions with that particular player. Phrased another way, he doesn't have a read on Player X, but the interactions between X, Y, and Z are leading him to townread Z or Y.

Swing and a miss, my New Phyrexian friend...
Kitty, it's an idiosyncratic term of mine that I doubt makes sense to anyone else besides me.

So, what you really did was dodge a question?

Direct question: "Are you townreading him?"
Answer: "I'm faloofragaging."
"... The fuck does that mean?"
"Oh, it's an idiosyncratic term of mine that I doubt makes sense to anyone else besides me."

Either answer the first question or tell us what the hell you meant.

[Dechs Kaison]

Kiwi, you do have a bit of a victim complex going on here. No one's trying to lynch you; stop being defensive.

Can you try to focus on something else for now? Because right now you're just producing noise and its distracting. Let's find scum.

[Dechs Kaison]

If prawn is an alt he is scum

Out of game questions: Is it common on this site for users to have many alts? Is there a way to find out if an account is an alt (I guess that would defeat the purpose of them, but maybe people don't always do their research)?

This got missed earlier. Someone answer this please. Anyone.

[Dechs Kaison]

No, it's not. I want to debate the validity of the statement to begin with.

Why would he say that if there isn't a way to know if the person's an alt?

[Dechs Kaison]

I actually lie a lot more when I'm town than when I'm scum.

Lynch.
All.
Liars.

ALWAYS.

There's NEVER a good time to lie as town. NEVER. Because if you're caught lying, you're lynched. If you're in LyLo you've just lost if you're caught. YOU CAN'T do it. So... no, I don't like this at all.

I've personally seen when lying is good for town. Here I go referencing my previous GIM game again, but in there, one of the townies (WitchHunt) lied about the cards he was given. He actually had the Town Cop/Lover card but claimed it was a Town Lover card. A few posts later, one of the scum players claimed they had the Town Cop/Lover card thinking it was pretty safe because a bunch of other cards were already out there. All of a sudden, WitchHunt counterclaimed out of nowhere and we hung scum.

All because of a lie.

So fuck you and your lynch all liars policy. You don't like it? Vote me now. Because I'm going to do it if I see the benefit in it.

[Dechs Kaison]

I think kiwi's logic is that if I was an alt, I'd be experienced enough to not make my mistake and that my play is some sort of gambit.

I am not an alt, but I think you just have to take my word for it, because AFAIK there's no way to check?

Exactly. So, why would he say it?

It's a distraction at best and misdirection at worst. I'm trying to figure out which it is.

[Dechs Kaison]

I just did a brief ISO of Prawn on this site, not in this game. He's a legit newb, or putting way too much effort into his alt just to pull a silly gambit this game.

Prawn is my surest townread right now.

[Dechs Kaison]

Either answer the first question or tell us what the hell you meant.

OR

I could ignore you because you have a stick up your ass and you're unpleasant to deal with.
I'll go with that one.

Except you go on to tell us what you meant. So, thanks for that.

[Dechs Kaison]

So it's an ad hominem and hypocrisy in the same post. Amazing.

[Dechs Kaison]

Mr. "Oh, I'll dodge a question by replying with an idiosyncratic phrase that I doubt means anything to anyone" thinks I'm unpleasant to deal with.

[Dechs Kaison]

You were being evasive and pretentious about it. If calling that out makes me unpleasant, get ready for an unpleasant game.

[Dechs Kaison]

No, having idiosyncratic phrasing and acting like no one would understand what you meant even if you explained it makes you pretentious.

[Dechs Kaison]

@TTH
That comment about him having a stick up his bum was also a bit over the top.

I did go a little heavy on the sass. Sorry, Dechs.

We cool. I know I'm a bit of an ass.

[Dechs Kaison]

There are two scum teams in a mini game? What lead to this assumption?

I have not played GIM before but is it not possible to have up to 4?

Discounting indies, it's possibly to have up to 3. Mafia, Werewolves, and/or Aliens.

Aliens only get to kill once. They're less of a threat, but it makes them super sneaky.

[Dechs Kaison]

SC, your interactions with Needless read like an OMGUS. Maybe it feels like they're looking at the smallest faults in your wording because you've hardly given us anything to look through. Small faults in a small pool are going to look pretty bad.

[Dechs Kaison]

Also, why did you say Needless? It's Needful.

[Dechs Kaison]

I haven't seen anything in this game yet that makes me want to lynch anyone other than WW.

SC, you're putting WW and Needful as your primary suspects. Needful's doing a lot of hunting here and putting pressure on people. I really think you're just feeling overly concerned about his suspicion of you and it's biasing your read. Cut Needful a break and get on WW's case. Needful's given us plenty of content to analyze in the future.

Needful, SC's not wrong when he says you're looking at small faults. The guy hadn't posted enough to be so sure about his alignment. Put your vote back on WW.

WW was at L-2 before he started posting more than one word replies and naked votes. Maybe we can get him to cooperate at L-1.

[Dechs Kaison]

Now that's a case I can get behind.

UNVOTE: WW
VOTE: Soviet Crocolisk

[Dechs Kaison]

Scumposting

Yes, that is what you're doing.

Put some fucking effort into it, at least.

[Dechs Kaison]

Soviet crocolisk is a bullshit wagon... just used to distract fron real scum aka ww

If that's what you think, then you should be countering the points on the case. Explain where the case is wrong.

[Dechs Kaison]

Good thing we arent then. Tell me, who you would not vote for?

Well you don't know my alignment so you can't say that for sure....

Dechs Kaison because he stopped rather than enforcing people to claim their cards. If he was scum and knows how advantageous it is for scum to know everyone's cards then he would be pushing for it, which he didn't. In fact, he did the opposite. This speaks so much town.

Be careful with logic like this. I just as well be could be sacrificing the knowledge gained from those cards hoping you would think this about me. This is what Needful was trying to warn about earlier. Wine in front of me and all that.

The only thing you can really know from my actions on this front are that I'm not on the same scum team that's pushing for the cards to be claimed.

[Dechs Kaison]

GMT+4 here.

[Dechs Kaison]

Yeah. I work 7-6 mostly, so I'm up at 6 every morning.

[Dechs Kaison]

The idea was that kiwi willy nilly jumped onto the Soviet wagon when he had stronger convictions for thinking WW is scum. So why go after a weaker lead than your strongest lead?

This makes total sense.

"I think both WW and SC are scum. I'm 90% convinced WW is scum and 75% convinced SC is scum. The WW wagon is failing, and I want to hang scum today, so I'll take the 75% chance. It's better than hanging someone I'm convinced is town."

[Dechs Kaison]

Still ok as a town mindset thing. He's more sure WW is scum, so if you're willing to vote him, he's going to assume it's a bus or that you're on opposing scum teams here. Either way, he'd be happy to hang who he thinks is scum.

[Dechs Kaison]

Because based on that quote, kiwi didn't willy nilly jump on the Soviet wagon?

If that is case, I guess I didn't pay attention to this post when kiwi made it. However, I do think I recall kiwi saying that WW and KCC being the same alignment.

Oh, he didn't make that exact quote. I kinda made that up as a paraphrasing. Let me dig through his ISO for a second...

Huh.

Ok. Um. Yeah, I was confusing KCC with SC.

Soviet crocolisk is a bullshit wagon... just used to distract fron real scum aka ww

You know what fuck it lynch sc

Those are 14 posts apart.

The fuck is this, Kiwi?

[Dechs Kaison]

Yeah, so now I'm convinced Kiwi's a survivor.

His day one claim is definitely not a scum play; it draws too much attention and lets us know the only way to deal with him is via lynching. What it does accomplish is prevent scum teams from targeting him.

He's willing to jump on any solid wagon to advance the game and not get himself lynched.

That's all consistent with Survivor. I'm cool with that. I'd prefer if he just came clean about it, but whatever. If he's helping us hunt scum and he's willing to vote scum suspects, I'm happy to have him around.

[Dechs Kaison]

My read on this game is that everyone has a power role and no one wants to be lynched D1 and because of this everything is boring.

Not everyone has a power role.

[Dechs Kaison]

I've got nothing but thyme on my hands.

[Dechs Kaison]

Anyone knows Dechs Kaison's meta?

I want to know if he's the type of scum that would put himself in a very disadvantageous position to the point that it is almost irrational to do so just so appear as town.

It's a risky but very elaborative tactic.

I am exactly this kind of player. It's why I'm warning you about using logic tells. If you're ever 100% convinced I'm town, you should probably lynch me.

Here, I can give you my entire meta. I'm still a new enough player that it's not a terribly long list:
First game ever, replaced in as scum: http://diestoremoval.com/forums/viewtop ... 111&t=2548
Embarrassing Town WePick: http://diestoremoval.com/forums/viewtop ... 111&t=2762
Town Lego Mafia: http://diestoremoval.com/forums/viewtop ... 111&t=2853
Scum GIM: http://diestoremoval.com/forums/viewtop ... 111&t=3059
Embarrassing Day 1 lynched SK: http://diestoremoval.com/forums/viewtop ... =13&t=3126

Then you can see I've been in three games here. They're all pretty embarrassing.

Let's talk about my GIM game one more time. I was given these three cards: Alien Silencer, Alien something else, Mafia Roleblocker. Aliens only got one night kill, Mafia got one per night. There was no logical reason to choose Alien over Mafia, but I did. I discarded the Mafia Roleblocker. Well, in the early game we caught the Werewolf and hanged him before he killed anyone. Then there were no kills for a few day while we mislynched a bit. So, we knew that there was an Alien out there. One of the town guys used the defense that he had discarded a mafia card. "Mafia is strictly better than Alien, so I wouldn't have discarded the Mafia card." That same logic applied to me, but I flat out told them why I'd have chosen Alien over Mafia and said I was still suspicious of the guy. "Because it's fun and no one sees it coming."

That's like, three instances of the very thing you're worried about me doing.

Don't analyze me with logic tells. If I'm defending myself with logic, hang me. Read my behavior. Do I vote scummy people? Do I make promises and follow through? Do my actions read town? Only then am I probably town.

[Dechs Kaison]

So why would I come out and tell you all this if I was scum? Wouldn't that be stupid to do?

That's exactly what I'd want you to think.

[Dechs Kaison]

EXACTLY.

[Dechs Kaison]

What I see right now is a possible manipulation of Soren's opinion by pointing out some past facts.

You're looking at this wrong. I have nothing to gain by manipulating Soren's opinion of me. Soren already thinks I'm town.

If I am being scummy, it's because I expect my interactions with Soren to manipulate the rest of you.

[Dechs Kaison]

To me it sounds like a doubtful Soren is trying to figure you out, and you pop up to attempt to sway her into a favorable direction.

How is telling Soren I could still be scum attempting to sway to a favorable direction?

Soren asked about my meta and it's mostly off site. I provided it and told Soren that I've pulled exactly the same stun that Soren's worried about. I'm telling you guys to be cautious about me.

[Dechs Kaison]

Not everyone has a power role.

What makes you believe this?

Are you really that dense?

Now that's a case I can get behind.

They pretty much made the same arguments, with better points might I add, before their #298. What made their 298 so special that you went from "Let's lynch WW isntead" to "SC is Scum for sure"?

Already explained this when I mistakenly thought Kiwi was having the same thoughts as me. I'm still pretty sure WW is scum and I'm pretty sure you're scum. The case looked better laid out that time and it looked like the WW lynch wasn't going to happen without some more interaction with him and some damning evidence. No one's helping me pressure WW, so it's time to go after my second biggest scum read.

[Dechs Kaison]

Not everyone has a power role.

What makes you believe this?

Are you really that dense?

I'm assuming you're going by probability here.
You sounded so sure with that statement I was wondering how you know for sure.

I am 100% positive that not everyone has a power role. It has nothing to do with probability. I know that at least one player in this game does not have a power role.

[Dechs Kaison]

Already explained this when I mistakenly thought Kiwi was having the same thoughts as me. I'm still pretty sure WW is scum and I'm pretty sure you're scum. The case looked better laid out that time and it looked like the WW lynch wasn't going to happen without some more interaction with him and some damning evidence. No one's helping me pressure WW, so it's time to go after my second biggest scum read.

Case on ww?

He started the push for the card claims. As soon as I put pressure back on that idea he clammed up. He hasn't even attempted to discuss the points I've brought up and gave nothing but one word replies and naked votes for a while. He was even at L-2 before he started speaking sentences. Getting him to cooperate is like pulling teeth.

[Dechs Kaison]

@desh which do you think will benefit town the most? Discussion or 'possibly' lynching a scummer?

Dechs*

Always discussion. I never want to see a day cut short when there's still more to learn through discussion. We haven't hardly heard from Diego, Ika, or even WW. My votes have been to generate pressure and see more content. I am not ready to lynch anyone just yet and I would be removing my vote if you ever got to L-1 without weigh in from Ika and Diego.

[Dechs Kaison]

Inertia. Whether you're at L-3 or he is won't make much a difference. When I see reason to move my vote, I will.

[Dechs Kaison]

Oooh, you cheeky ...

I need to think on this.

[Dechs Kaison]

You've created a situation where I can put WW at L-2, which is where I would like him to be to get more out of him.

But you're also one of my scum suspects. So you're either doing this to bus your buddy or you know he's not on your team.

Or you're gambling that the lynch won't go through at all.

[Dechs Kaison]

You know what? No.

That vote of yours was just too damn manipulative. That's the wrong kind of mindset to be making a vote from. You're not town. No way.

Vote stays.

WW looks a little more town in light of how you're treating him here. He's not on your team. You're willing to pull a vote from me to him in an attempt to manipulate my vote to him as well.

[Dechs Kaison]

WW is at L-1 if I count right. Intent to hammer.

Post more now, WW.

Town/Scum list minimum, with reasons for each.

[Dechs Kaison]

Playing catch up now, I'll post a couple times in the next hour, then I'm going to bed.

[Dechs Kaison]

Not everyone has a power role.

What makes you believe this?

Are you really that dense?

I'm assuming you're going by probability here.
You sounded so sure with that statement I was wondering how you know for sure.

I am 100% positive that not everyone has a power role. It has nothing to do with probability. I know that at least one player in this game does not have a power role.

You have 100% certainty? Can you explain yourself please?

OK, this is really frustrating here. I'm purposefully trying to give you guys information without outright claiming. It's called breadcrumbing, but every time I do it, one or two people get really hung up on my wording and won't leave it alone, so I might as well spell it out.

I don't have a power role. Duh.

How else could I be 100% certain that not everyone has a power role?

I got dealt three vanilla cards. I had no power role to choose.

Side note: It is also quite possible that someone was dealt only one power role, but it happened to be on the alignment card that player wanted to be. You can't have both parts of a card.

[Dechs Kaison]

Yet Dechs Kaison urges us to keep doubting him? Why? For what purpose? Why would a townie want someone to doubt their own townieness? It doesn't seem to add up. On top of this, Dechs Kaison employs WIFOM to confuse us and making us further doubt him.

It's a little trait I've picked up from my Mafia mentor. He often coaches other players in his games. When I say things like that, it's because I think they'll help you be a better mafia player. Regardless of my alignment, I want the people I play with to be good because it makes games more fun.

Don't get me wrong, here. I want you to think I'm town; I just want you to do it for the correct reasons. I've seen a lot of people fooled by the logical lynch or other perfectly logical reasons because they were set up to fail.

Look at my Lego game. We had a two shot cop, but his ability was tampered with. We hung a townie that he had a scum result on. Logically, we know he lied to us, so we hung him the next day when he had another scum result on me. I didn't feel either lynch was right, but logically, they were correct. We almost lost that game on that road.

[Dechs Kaison]

Maybe I should unvote WW to see if he'll actually say something with substance now that he's about to get lynched, otherwise he may get hammered before having the chance to speak. Hah, who am I kidding, he already had plenty of time to speak up but decided to post useless tree comments instead.

No. Keep him at L-1. He won't be hanged yet.

No one else should vote WW right now

. Give him the chance to provide real content.

I have declared intent to hammer. That's enough for now.

WW, I'm demanding a full town/scum list with your reasons.

[Dechs Kaison]

Also what's with your waiting game? Do you think the afks will make some sort of phenominal opinion that will change the whole game? Do you expect that if you wait long enough that scum will eventually make a big slip?

It's not really about who we lynch today. It's to get their feelings on record now, on Day one. Everyone needs to contribute, to be held accountable. Get things on the table to analyze for Day 2 and 3 and so on. If they're scum and allowed to skate by toDay without taking some kind of stance, then they can adopt whatever seems most town tomorrow.

And you called me short sighted.

[Dechs Kaison]

I think WW is at L-2. He had 3 votes, Soviet voted for him, then unvoted. Then Soren. Then Me. That's 5 votes.

Ok, damn.

VOTE: WW

Now he's at L-1.

Still, no one vote. You can declare your intent to hammer, but don't actually do it until he's had the chance to speak.

[Dechs Kaison]

Furthermore, how likely is it to be dealt three vanilla roles? It seems like a very low chance, however just because something is unlikely to happen it doesn't mean that I should dismiss it because it could still potentially happen.

Seeing as their are more Vanilla cards than there are any other one role, it is statistically more likely to get three vanilla cards than it is to get any other specific combination of cards.

It's still more likely that I got (at least) one power role than none, because there are more power roles than not.

[Dechs Kaison]

@Dechs
Why the heck would you claim VT?

Well, I was kind of forced into it. Two people were pressuring me over a breadcrumb comment, and one was rather forceful.

Also, to be completely fair, I only claimed "vanilla." I said nothing of my alignment. Not like you'd believe me because I told you, but whatever.

[Dechs Kaison]

Furthermore, how likely is it to be dealt three vanilla roles? It seems like a very low chance, however just because something is unlikely to happen it doesn't mean that I should dismiss it because it could still potentially happen.

Seeing as their are more Vanilla cards than there are any other one role, it is statistically more likely to get three vanilla cards than it is to get any other specific combination of cards.

It's still more likely that I got (at least) one power role than none, because there are more power roles than not.

Is that so? I should probably check that page with all the possible cards.

12x Vanilla Town
Judas
Saulus
Underdog
5x Mafia Goon
4x Werewolf (Vanilla)
Survivor

Total of 25 cards with Vanilla attached. Total is 134 (137 minus 3 not used). So there's a significant portion of the cards that have Vanilla as the role, but far more that have some kind of power.

[Dechs Kaison]

@Dechs
Why the heck would you claim VT?

Well, I was kind of forced into it. Two people were pressuring me over a breadcrumb comment, and one was rather forceful.

Also, to be completely fair,

I only claimed "vanilla." I said nothing of my alignment.

Not like you'd believe me because I told you, but whatever.

I did notice that...

Well, like I said, if I'd have said "I'm vanilla town" instead of "I'm vanilla," would it really have affected your opinion of me?

Here's one of the reasons I lie more as town than I do as mafia: People like to ask blatantly "are you scum?" I always respond with "Yes," because who the hell would believe no just because that's what I said anyway? It's a dumb question, so I always lie to it as town and I respond truthfully when I'm scum. So hahaha.

[Dechs Kaison]

Alright. G'night folks.

Please don't hang WW before he's given at least a Town/Scum list.

Zaicon, please double check that count. I was fairly certain he had 6 votes.

[Dechs Kaison]

The odds of a game using this setup having

both

a player with 3 vanilla cards

and

a player with 3 negative utility cards is about 1 in 500. So, now we're stretching plausibility with these claims. -It is still, technically,

possible

, of course, but only barely. I'd wager on at least one of these extraordinary claims being a lie.

Do not get focused on the odds of a situation happening. Imagine rolling ten six sided die and they all come up the same number. Yeah, you'd never guess that it could happen, but you just saw it happen. There's no use in saying "The odds of that happening is implausible, so I can't believe it just happened."

I already showed you there's 25 cards I could have gotten that are Vanilla. The odds that I got three from that set are 0.59%. That's a pretty small chance of happening, but it did. At least with my claim, there are many ways to achieve the state of three vanilla cards. My combination is over three orders of magnitude easier to come by than any specific combination of three unique cards.

Let's say you have three unique cards. Doesn't matter which, just any three unique ones. What is the odds that you were dealt that specific three card combination? It's 0.000255%. If you told me your three cards, I could respond with "But that specific combination is only 0.000255% likely, so you must be lying." I'd be totally wrong, but I could say it.

So, don't think about how likely it is something happened and use that to make your decisions.

Reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypergeome ... stribution

[Dechs Kaison]

Well, I have no idea what Dechs is about, I do know it's not helping town from where I am sitting, so that townread is gone.

How is what I'm doing not helping town?

I started by bringing my experience as scum in a similar setup to the table. I gave you guys

the successful scum strategy

I used then and kept us from going down that same path this game.

I'm discouraging people from being fooled by logical set ups and from mathematical fallacies. I'm trying to get people to focus on actual behaviors.

I'm focusing the pressure on WW and I'm trying to get him to take a stance and give us some content to actually analyze.

I'm trying to keep the day from rushing to a close before we've gotten solid stances from Diego and Ika (It'd be nice to get you guys' reads on the table before the day ends, regardless of whether we still want to lynch WW).

I tried breadcumbing my lack of role, but two people wouldn't leave it alone. To prevent it from being a drawn out, useless discussion, I just spelled it out. Yeah, disadvantage mine but what do I care? I'd rather we focus on the scum hunting. (Future note, guys, when someone's being cryptic like that, there's probably a reason, so try to figure it out)

I've provided

my entire meta

in response to someone asking about it. I'm a completely open book. I don't have anything to hide from you guys.

Which part of that is not helping town?

[Dechs Kaison]

The distribution behind our picks is not even close to hypergeometric, the incentive to pick certain combinations over others because we believe they help us win and even our alignment if we were allowed to chose the one we all personally like more means the probability of each combination being chosen is not the same and the likelyhood we are telling the truth can be guessed at when claiming based on known player preferences, what you wrote there is valid for the cards we were initially dealt but is of little relevance to the part that matters which is assessing claims.

You misread me because all I was talking about was the initial three cards we were dealt, which is hypergeometric. That was the only topic of discussion there. The statement was that they couldn't believe someone was dealt three negative town roles and someone else was dealt three vanilla roles. All I was saying was it's not a reason to disbelieve someone's claim.

[Dechs Kaison]

I agree we should focus on scum hunting and you are not helping there either with these theory posts and all the self meta WIFOM you brought into the game, if you townread me because you got up at 5.15 I might vote you for giving a bogus townread but I certainly am not going to try and convince you I could be scum because your clock was 5 minutes off.

Theory posts certainly help when people are using theory incorrectly to come to their conclusions. Like I told Soren, I want people to think I'm town, but I don't want them to think it for the wrong reasons. Soren's conclusion about me, regardless of what it was, hadn't been reached through good reasoning and all I was doing was pointing it out. I don't want Soren or anyone else to make that mistake.

[Dechs Kaison]

"Hypergeometric" - Copper 2015

Lmao

To be fair, I was the one who brought that up. I linked the wiki page on the math behind a hypergeometric distribution.

[Dechs Kaison]

I did not misread, you made or implied a logical leap from the special case where your alignment is forced by the cards you are dealt to general considerations about evaluating claims by saying we should ignore the odds behind a claim and just take it at face value.

No logical leap was made. Kitty made this statement:

The odds of a game using this setup having both a player with 3 vanilla cards and a player with 3 negative utility cards is about 1 in 500. So, now we're stretching plausibility with these claims. -It is still, technically, possible, of course, but only barely. I'd wager on at least one of these extraordinary claims being a lie.

Kitty says that one of the claims has to be a lie simply because of the likelyhood of what is dealt.

I said you can't do that. Then I explained some math and theory to back that up

How did you misinterpret that?

[Dechs Kaison]

It is unsettling to me you would waste all this time correcting Soren for what ones has to assume from your POV is a correct read just because you feel that read is bad on you, maybe you are awkward scum and try to appear truthfull to a fault is one point that came to mind, I could have also seen pigheaded town that refuses to issue any false statements but you already told us lying can be fine if it's pro town so that's not it, all in all I can't really figure your motives but it'certainly not helping my read of you.

Soren was making a read based on WIFOM. I don't want to see that kind of thing happen ever, regardless of who the read is about, so I explained why you can't do that. I just happened to be the example I used.

What's so hard to understand here?

[Dechs Kaison]

Nothing is inaccurate. The odds that Kiwi was dealt a specific combination of cards should have no bearing on whether you believe that combination because all specific combinations are equally unlikely.

[Dechs Kaison]

Let me try and phrase this another way for you.

Kiwi's claim: Town PGO, Town Lover, Town Ascetic
My claim: Three Vanilla

Kitty's statement: "One of those has to be a lie because it's so unlikely that that combination got dealt."

My statement: "That's not at all the way odds works. You can't make that conclusion."

[Dechs Kaison]

So questions for DK
Why would someone intentionally pick a survivor card? Your only reasoning that I can see for kiwi being a survivor is that Kiwi's play is optimal if he is a survivor. Am I missing something there?

Nope. I look at his play, his votes, his stances, and his claim; together it leads me to the conclusion that he's a survivor.

You say that you are 90% sure that WW is scum based on his inaction and non committal to the game. While I do agree that this is completely detrimental behavior to town, how can this behavior be reflective of him being scum? [snip] Is there something that I miss that makes you so confident?

It's not just his inaction. He started pushing a strategy I know to be detrimental to town. There was a brief time where I was explaining why it was bad and he maintained I was wrong, but wouldn't actually engage in any discussion about it. After that, he just clammed right up and has been completely uncooperative ever since. I believe him when he says he's frustrated; he's caught scum and has lost any interest in fighting it.

But you're also one of my scum suspects. So you're either doing this to bus your buddy or you know he's not on your team.

Why are you assuming here that we have one scum team in this game? Most Great Idea games I've seen end up having multiple scum.

I'm not assuming we only have one scum team. I meant that he's either bussing his buddy (scum on his team) or he knows that he's not on his team (scum on a different team).

[Dechs Kaison]

Missed this part the first time.

Why would someone intentionally pick a survivor card?

Why would someone pick scum or town or alien or werewolf? Because they think it'll be fun. Remember I picked Alien over Mafia in my last GIM game. Why would I choose a faction with one nightkill over one with one nightkill every night? Because I thought it'd be more fun!

Survivors have an interesting mechanic in that they can side with town or mafia depending on how the game plays out and still win.

Hell, if I were given the option to go Survivor PGO, I might do it. I'd behave pretty much exactly as Kiwi did, too.

[Dechs Kaison]

Apologies, it was just really strongly worded. The point I'm trying to drive across is that no matter what three cards someone claims to have, that claim is as unlikely as any other. It shouldn't matter that they're three negative utility roles or three vanillas.

[Dechs Kaison]

I'm just saying it's terribly obvious that you have no idea how statistics and probabilities works.

[Dechs Kaison]

What you are failing to do is update the probabilities once new information comes in, so in a nutshell how likely a claim is matters.

No, it doesn't because every set of three cards has the same probability. The only time new information comes in is when we have a counterclaim or when someone dies and we get a PM.

I think there's only one PGO card. If someone got lynched and was revealed to be a PGO, then we could know Kiwi was lying. Otherwise, his three claimed cards (PGO, Ascetic, Lover) is just as likely as any other three cards.

How likely a claim is doesn't matter because they're all equally likely when they're dealt and that's the moment in time that Kitty and I are discussing.

[Dechs Kaison]

We're talking past each other at this point and it doesn't really matter anyway. Stop it. We've got better things to be doing.

[Dechs Kaison]

Go learn about baysian updating before preaching about statistics, we have a vested interest in choosing one card over another because the powelevel of each is different and we want to win, which is something your initial distribution doesn't take into account so once you claim you are giving new information that update your initial probability, if you don't understand this it's your problem, end of discussion.

We're not talking about what cards we chose out of the set we were dealt. We are only talking about what was dealt. There is no Bayesian updating to consider. You don't understand that.

[Dechs Kaison]

Go learn about baysian updating before preaching about statistics, we have a vested interest in choosing one card over another because the powelevel of each is different and we want to win, which is something your initial distribution doesn't take into account so once you claim you are giving new information that update your initial probability, if you don't understand this it's your problem, end of discussion.

We're not talking about what cards we chose out of the set we were dealt. We are only talking about what was dealt. There is no Bayesian updating to consider. You don't understand that.

Of course I wouldn't, but that's because you're using a flawed analogy.

If I claimed that I rolled a one with the first die, a six with the second, a five with the third and so on, with a specific result for each die, it is exactly as likely a situation as rolling all sixes.

I'm not saying you should believe his claim just because he said that's the cards he got. I'm saying you can't say he's lying because his combination is somehow more unlikely than any other combination.

[Dechs Kaison]

What are your thoughts on Copper and Soren?

I can't tell you my exact thoughts on Copper because that would be unkind and breaking site rules, but he's as town as they come.

Soren I get a good town feeling from.

[Dechs Kaison]

Ugh, I quoted the wrong thing when I posted this.

Kitty, this is the response to your questions.

Of course I wouldn't, but that's because you're using a flawed analogy.

If I claimed that I rolled a one with the first die, a six with the second, a five with the third and so on, with a specific result for each die, it is exactly as likely a situation as rolling all sixes.

I'm not saying you should believe his claim just because he said that's the cards he got. I'm saying you can't say he's lying because his combination is somehow more unlikely than any other combination.

[Dechs Kaison]

No we are not, we are talking about what cards were delt, knowing the the player claimed x and discarded y.

So technically we're only talking about a choose two scenario because we know what the third is.

Ok, I think I finally see what you're saying. We know he discarded Town Ascetic, so we should assume that the card he chose a role from is "better" than Ascetic. That sounds logical and all, but I've already shown you a case where some guy deliberately chose the weaker card to keep.

Again, Kitty wasn't talking about that, though. Look at this quote carefully this time. I'll even bold the relevant part:

The odds of a game using this setup

having both a player with 3 vanilla cards and a player with 3 negative utility cards

is about 1 in 500. So, now we're stretching plausibility with these claims. -It is still, technically, possible, of course, but only barely. I'd wager on at least one of these extraordinary claims being a lie.

Look, she's only talking about the three cards we were dealt. She's saying that part is implausible. She's not talking about what we chose and that making it unbelievable. She's only talking about what we were dealt. So, no, we're not talking about anything requiring Bayesian updating.

[Dechs Kaison]

No idea.

All I can say is that he's sure acting like someone more interested in personal survival and advancing the game state than an actual townie.

[Dechs Kaison]

Soren, I am not going to tell you how scum can profit from it, suffice to say there is a reason why VT's don't mass claim D1 in the games you play.

In a game like this it's not so detrimental, but in say a newbie game where there's only one or two power roles, if every VT massclaimed at the start, scum would know who to night kill.

I think the worst thing I've done is narrow down scum's targets for something like a roleblock if they have it.

[Dechs Kaison]

Vanilla mafia? I think Dechs finds it more fun to put himself at a disadvantage and try to win from that. Vanilla mafia is pretty weak, however it can be compensated by stronger scum roles in his team. But Dechs adores that weakness.

You misunderstand. It's not really the weakness I adore. When I chose Alien over Mafia, it was for a couple reasons. It was weaker, but that was really just a side effect. I was thinking of the entire setup. I was worried too many people would choose Mafia and it would make for a really boring game. Also, Alien was a faction I knew I'd be more likely to be on my own. I really enjoyed that game because I got to scum hunt and deceive town players. Best of both worlds.

But Kaboose is right. Speculating on which alignment I would have chosen when you don't know which I was dealt is going to get you nowhere.

[Dechs Kaison]

im drunk talk to me

Give us some reads.

What do you think of WW?

What do you think of Soren?

What's your take on SC?

Do you believe Kiwi's claim right out of the gate?

[Dechs Kaison]

SC is Soviet Crocosomething.

Kiwi opened up the game with a Town Paranoid Gun Owner claim.

Also, what's your favorite drink? Mine's Laphroaig quarter cask.

[Dechs Kaison]

3) i like margaitas, preferbly zackerys im like 1 and half in and bout to go out

You, sir, are no pirate.

Just take care of yourself. Get some rest and give us solid reads when you're sober.

[Dechs Kaison]

Pretty sure two people unvoted him already, so that's not happening now.

We let him off the hook without making him even give us his Town/Scum list with reasons.

I'm really disappointed.

[Dechs Kaison]

No, that was just drunken Ika speculation.

[Dechs Kaison]

Well, I have no idea what Dechs is about, I do know it's not helping town from where I am sitting, so that townread is gone.

How is what I'm doing not helping town?

I started by bringing my experience as scum in a similar setup to the table. I gave you guys

the successful scum strategy

I used then and kept us from going down that same path this game.

I'm discouraging people from being fooled by logical set ups and from mathematical fallacies. I'm trying to get people to focus on actual behaviors.

I'm focusing the pressure on WW and I'm trying to get him to take a stance and give us some content to actually analyze.

I'm trying to keep the day from rushing to a close before we've gotten solid stances from Diego and Ika (It'd be nice to get you guys' reads on the table before the day ends, regardless of whether we still want to lynch WW).

I tried breadcumbing my lack of role, but two people wouldn't leave it alone. To prevent it from being a drawn out, useless discussion, I just spelled it out. Yeah, disadvantage mine but what do I care? I'd rather we focus on the scum hunting. (Future note, guys, when someone's being cryptic like that, there's probably a reason, so try to figure it out)

I've provided

my entire meta

in response to someone asking about it. I'm a completely open book. I don't have anything to hide from you guys.

Which part of that is not helping town?

Because you're doing all that to make us think that you're town. There's a checklist of things to do in order to appear as town, and so long as you tick all/most of the boxes, you're sure enough town!

The way that you're able to pick out all the townie actions that you've done makes it seems as though it was planned beforehand, thus you have a clear idea of such "townie actions" and is able to present them.

That, or you're just very conscious of your actions. Which is meh.

Dechs, what's your response to this?

Just look at my actions and see what they're doing.

I didn't generate that list from remembering my list of things I did to look town. I did an ISO of myself and asked Copper what, exactly, I was doing that wasn't helping town. That's not a list of all my "town looking" actions. It's a list of all my actions.

I'm not even talking about whether I look town here. I'm talking about whether I'm helping town. I've done that.

Would it make you happy if I used the WW defense?

"I'm town."

[Dechs Kaison]

Because I'm town

Are we seriously going to let him get away with this bullshit?

How many people have asked for his reads? That's all we want. We had him at L-1 and all we got was some garbage that named half his wagon as scum and said he was too frustrated to read the game. We didn't ask for a claim, just a T/S list with reasoning and he couldn't be troubled to provide it.

We can't win if people aren't even playing the game.

Hold him accountable to something now so even if we don't end up hanging him we can use that information later to help clear/confirm him Days from now when we're in lylo. I can't make him post content on my own.

[Dechs Kaison]

You know what? Fuck it.

I'm done playing until WW has at least given us his T/S list. If you guys aren't going to make that happen, then I don't care what happens this game anyway. Throw the fucking game.

[Dechs Kaison]

@Mod:

Can we request WW's slot be replaced by someone that's not just here to troll the game?

[Dechs Kaison]

I already gave my scumreads

Yeah, and we already asked for a Town/Scum list with

reasons

.

[Dechs Kaison]

And what we got was "I'm a tree" posts.

So fucking play the game or replace out.

[Dechs Kaison]

You're either the worst town player I've ever been in a game with or the worst scum player I've ever been in a game with.

[Dechs Kaison]

VOTE: Diego

Let's try something new.

MAKE A GODDAMN CASE ON DIEGO.

No more of these naked votes.

[Dechs Kaison]

Give us something.

[Dechs Kaison]

Also I'm not handing them a list, because I pulled those from the link the mod provided at the beginning so complain to the mod for handing potential scum a list to use to excuse their play.

The problem is that you're handing WW a list of claims that you already believe could explain his behavior from a town perspective.

You're telling him what he could claim to convince you he's town.

[Dechs Kaison]

No, we want a specific person to. And we'll be able to counterclaim if you just make something up.

If we had all massclaimed in the beginning, you'd know which cards were safe.

[Dechs Kaison]

Is that ironic? If not, yes now that you have claimed if you have a unique town card and nobody cc's it gives credence to your claim.

It gives a little bit of credence. If he just picks a random town card, there's about a 80% chance he gets away with it.

Still, if he had a list of our claims right from the start, he'd be able to pick something with complete safety. At least this way we've got a 1/5 chance that we could counter claim him.

Spoiler: Math

134 original cards
13 discarded revealed
121 remain
70 Town (80 - 3 not used - 7 discarded)
70/121 = 58% Town cards
~14 Town counter claim cards (24 * 58%)
~14/70 = 20% counter claim

[Dechs Kaison]

Lines after ~ in that math are making or depend on an assumption.

[Dechs Kaison]

I lied btw

GOVERN: WHOMPING WILLOW

You're supposed to wait until after you're lynched to do that.

[Dechs Kaison]

Waiting for Mod to confirm, then I'll unvote.

[Dechs Kaison]

It makes him unlynchable for the day.

Wait for the mod to confirm. I've seen people fake daykill like that, no reason he couldn't fake govern just to make us unvote.

[Dechs Kaison]

I lied btw

GOVERN: WHOMPING WILLOW

You're supposed to wait until after you're lynched to do that.

False

Only reason you wouldn't is if you're lying about the ability.

[Dechs Kaison]

Could still be a bluff. Wait for Zaicon to confirm.

[Dechs Kaison]

Do you guys think that there is ever a situation where it is a good strategy to vote for yourself?

You do this as scum to hammer yourself and cut the day short.

[Dechs Kaison]

That hasn't happened in this game. Please don't be fishing for tactics regarding any other games you have going on.

[Dechs Kaison]

I don't like the SC wagon anymore, guys.

VOTE: NeedfulThings

Needful, I'm really not comfortable with your push on SC. The only thing you have on him is from the first few posts of the game. The longer it's gone on without any new support the more it's felt like a forced lynch. I'm not going to let that happen today.

I don't like how hard you've tried to defend WW either. He's a scum buddy that you were trying to keep him from having to use his Govern ability.

[Dechs Kaison]

Everything can be scum aligned now. This is GIM. You get the alignment from one card and the role from another.

[Dechs Kaison]

Everything can be scum aligned now. This is GIM. You get the alignment from one card and the role from another.

Do you?

So aliens can be town aligned too? Whaaat?

Uh, no.

Alien is an alignment. Governor is a role.

You should have understood this from the PM.

For an example: if you only got the cards Town Governor and Mafia Roleblocker, you could only chose to be Town Roleblocker or Mafia Governor. You can't choose the alignment and role from the same card.

[Dechs Kaison]

How did you get that out of my post?

[Dechs Kaison]

How did you get that out of my post?

You are disassembling a wagon on Soviet, who has done nothing town this whole game, for no reason.

Soviet has done far more for town than WW, and somehow you think Soviet is the better lynch of the two?

Also, that's one hell of a switch to Ike almost out of nowhere. You're citing meta as the reason for a lynch. Ika has not done anything scummy. We did discuss a posting restriction one of the heads was under, too. There are many reasons to be inactive. You are doing nothing but making bad pushes on easy targets.

You're also "running out of patience" on a wagon that just started on you. It has two votes? You're mighty defensive all of a sudden.

[Dechs Kaison]

This is actually not game relevant. He's pushing "Here's what I would have done as scum!" In an attempt at towncred, not as an actual indictment of any players. If he thought it was scum motivated, he would be pushing the people advocating the claim. But he's not.

This part of your case is an outright lie. A few posts later I get on WW's case for pushing this claim and I never let up on it. Have you even read the game?

[Dechs Kaison]

He assumes he knows what you're talking about when he obviously doesn't, which shows me he's not trying to figure out what you're thinking, or how, or why, but rather looking for the direction the thread is heading.

No, I assumed you used a phrase in the way that made the most sense.

I didn't assume that you used an "idiosyncratic phrase" that no one else understands in at attempt to confuse us all and dodge a question.

[Dechs Kaison]

Needful has been setting up opportunity lynches from the very start.

They got on SC for an early slop of a play when we were all still fumbling around getting out of RVS. None of the later content from SC was ever taken into account because none of it fit the initial case. All Needful could do was restate the initial case and push harder. I admit I was fooled by it once.

But look what happens as soon as there's some resistance to the SC case and two votes fall on Needful for it? Full stop and change course to go sink Pirate Ika (see what I did there? Nautical jokes, yay). The case on Ika consists entirely of "Ika's inactive, and would play more if Ika were town." Look, I'm all for getting people to post more. I tried to get Ika posting. I'm ok with putting pressure on Ika to get them posting, but you can't make a case for scum around little activity alone.

Well, while that wagon's going they're setting up the case on me, testing the waters to see how much support they can get for it, whether the push on me is today or tomorrow.

These are the actions of a scum player. They aren't scum hunting. They're looking for the easy lynches to push as a primary goal.

[Dechs Kaison]

And before you go and get all indignant on me and act like I'm discrediting you like I'm pretty sure you will anyway, what planted that seed of doubt was the quote from your signature. You completely recognize and seem to take some sort of pride in people berating you about terrible, counter-productive play. That's why I told Jingle to hold off. Now I don't give a shit and he can lay into you all he likes because you've now proven how committed you are to being anti-town this game.

Follow the link in the signature.

My reads that he wasn't listening to were correct.

That's why the quote's there. Not because of my "terrible, counter-productive play," but because I'm always right.

[Dechs Kaison]

If it's so easy, how come I only have three votes and the last wagon fell on its face?
Not nearly as easy as, say, Whomping Willow. Talk about an opportunistic turd of a wagon.

Last wagon fell on its face because I just stopped it. I'm not letting you hang townies on bad reads.

Nothing was opportunistic about the WW wagon. I fought damn hard to get him under pressure to start posting content and stop making "I'm a tree" comments. All I wanted was to get pressure on him and get some reasoning or a case out of him, which I still didn't get.

[Dechs Kaison]

This argument is

left castrated and bleeding on the ground

by the fact that

we pioneered every single push this game

and have made wagons happen.

You

completely ignore that dimension

and you

completely

ignore the fact mollie is a part of that hydra and the reason why

completely eludes

me. I have an

amply large sample size

to support the meta case and the fact that so many other people besides me can recognize it as well should be really telling.

I told him to hold off on it because

there was a doubt in my mind

that your play is just

completely ineffective

and that it was

possible, and even quite likely

, that it was

actually feckless town

that could be confused for scum active lurking.

Pay attention to the language here. Someone is taking a lot of time writing their replies, being very wordy and using big emotional words.

That's evidence of manipulative intent.

[Dechs Kaison]

Follow the link in the signature.

My reads that he wasn't listening to were correct.

Oh is that so?

How fascinating! Let's take a look.
From your post above that one you have in your signature:
"Go after SW, Huntress, and Flubber in that order."
Only SW was scum. That's one for three, friendo.

The fact that Victor was compelled to say something like that is pretty telling in and of itself regardless of the accuracy, as mediocre as it turned out to be in this case.

Scum weren't the only people I was reading, by the way. I knew and had cleared a few townies correctly.

The point is, I knew who the town should have been going after and hanging scum day 1 (which I was about to do) would have drastically affected that game's outcome.

Even Vic, who was an absolute piece of shit, I knew was town. I hoped he was scum so I wouldn't have to hold a grudge against him, but I knew better.

[Dechs Kaison]

Pirate Ika is not a townie. I guarantee it and you're being incredibly bullheaded when you have multiple people telling you otherwise.
How many games have you played with either pirate mollie or ika?

I haven't played any with either. I don't like making meta cases anyway, especially when there's only 17 posts to count. Maybe if you had examples of games where Mollie or Ika were scum and did lurk like crazy, yeah, I might start to listen to you.

Counter question: Are you seriously going to make this meta case against Ika, but ignore the meta case that was made against WW?

[Dechs Kaison]

Here are games I had with mollie:
Micro 445 (NB: subtract my posts)
Open 573 (NB: subtract Nacho's posts)
Micro 415

This is just a small piece. From what I've heard and seen, this is a pretty well established pattern.

This is a start and it's good enough to be suspicious, but I noticed something else: The two games you referenced where Mollie is scum she's also in a Hyrda, and the town game she's on her own. Her posting more may be a symptom of not having a second head to rely on.

You have anything where Mollie is scum and not in a Hyrda?

In the meantime, Pirate Ika is already at L-2 (and intent to hammer from SC). I want to give Ika a chance to at least post some content, give us a sober list of reads with reasons, anything to make a decision on. If they can't do that and we've got a deadline which is getting close, fine, I'll hang them for lack of something better.

[Dechs Kaison]

@KittyCupCake, what card did you use for your alignment?

I think this is something that everyone should do.

No no no, we've been over this. This gives town absolutely no benefit. Please do not push for this.

Also, please read the thread.

[Dechs Kaison]

That accomplishes nothing except telling the scum which cards are clean to claim.

[Dechs Kaison]

Oh, and telling them which roles they don't have to play around.

[Dechs Kaison]

How do you know who discarded what?

I didn't revealed my discarded cards. Or any of my cards for that matter.

The discarded cards were revealed by the mod on page 2.

[Dechs Kaison]

My claim was that I had all Vanilla.

[Dechs Kaison]

I tried to just breadcrumb it early when someone said that "everyone here has a power role" and I said "not everyone has a power role."

Basically I got dealt nothing but vanilla cards. It was the most awful choice I've ever had to make.

[Dechs Kaison]

how many of them were not Vanilla Townie?

One.

[Dechs Kaison]

Why didn't you discard that one?

That's not how our PMs worked.

Mod listed the combinations that were available, I chose one. He picked which card got discarded.

[Dechs Kaison]

You might as well full claim now, I'll start filling in the table

No, I won't. I don't want some scumbag being able to claim a unique card because it fits his situation when I can counterclaim it. If I give you that information, I lose my ability to counterclaim, which is literally the only thing I have this game.

[Dechs Kaison]

o, you did not just do that. You're not okay with telling us if you've got dealt vanilla townie cards,

When did I say that? I mean, you always knew (well, you should have) that I got dealt one VT card and discarded it.

[Dechs Kaison]

o, you did not just do that. You're not okay with telling us if you've got dealt vanilla townie cards,

When did I say that? I mean, you always knew (well, you should have) that I got dealt one VT card and discarded it.

"I got dealt one VT card and discarded it."

Huh what? Are you claiming scum right now?

Read that as "at least one." I got dealt two.

[Dechs Kaison]

And aren't you allowed to ask for a reshuffle and get a new set of cards if you don't like the set of cards you got? So why didn't you do that when you saw that you got three vanilla cards Dechs?

That was not an option. If it was, I feel like a moron.

So you got 2 vanilla townie cards and 1 other vanilla card?

Your argument about not being able to choose which card to discard is horseshit btw

You replaced into this game, shitface. You don't even know how the role PMs worked.

[Dechs Kaison]

In this game, Zaicon gave us our three cards, then listed all possible combinations. He used strikeout text on duplicate combinations.

I chose one of those combinations and replied with only that. I made no mention of what I was discarding.

[Dechs Kaison]

Bedtime now. I'll be up again in 7 hours. Replies then.

[Dechs Kaison]

Did that dude just say at one point "I got nothing but VT cards" and in the next post say "I got two VTs and something else"? Like he is lying. Isn't he the same guy who is claiming he never chose to discard something?

I always said I got three vanilla cards. Look at the list. There are things that are not Town, Scum, Werewolf, or Alien, but are Vanilla without a role. Those are treated as [Alignment] Vanilla.

[Dechs Kaison]

See, right here.

Furthermore, how likely is it to be dealt three vanilla roles? It seems like a very low chance, however just because something is unlikely to happen it doesn't mean that I should dismiss it because it could still potentially happen.

Seeing as their are more Vanilla cards than there are any other one role, it is statistically more likely to get three vanilla cards than it is to get any other specific combination of cards.

It's still more likely that I got (at least) one power role than none, because there are more power roles than not.

Is that so? I should probably check that page with all the possible cards.

12x Vanilla Town
Judas
Saulus
Underdog
5x Mafia Goon
4x Werewolf (Vanilla)
Survivor

Total of 25 cards with Vanilla attached. Total is 134 (137 minus 3 not used). So there's a significant portion of the cards that have Vanilla as the role, but far more that have some kind of power.

I got three cards from that list and two of them were Vanilla Towns.

[Dechs Kaison]

Damn it looks like Dechs really slipped and my townread of him was bad.

@Dechs
Do you have an explanation for claiming 3 vanilla cards so you are not a PR beforehand and now saying you had 2?

Yeah, see above. Nothing has changed. I still got dealt three vanilla cards. One of them is a unique alignment.

[Dechs Kaison]

I have got all role pm's and played this mods games before. I know for a fact you can choose what to discard

Yeah, you can choose. I didn't. I just told him what I was going to be.

I mean, I'm glad Vanilla Town got discarded and not my unique card. I already said that's the only thing I have against scum here is counterclaim potential.

[Dechs Kaison]

The fact you didn't choose the discard indicates you are using the unique card as your alignment.

This means you are either {Survivor, Underdog, Saulus or Judas}

It indicates nothing, especially to you since you weren't here for role distribution.

Has anyone else not specified their discard, made their choice combination and had the Mod infer a discard card for them?

[Dechs Kaison]

Of course he'd give the option. The question is, if someone picks Vanilla town out of that list but doesn't specify the discard, would he choose for that person?

[Dechs Kaison]

Well that's not how the role distribution was worded. It looked like this:

Jank Alignment [stuff]
Vanilla Townie [stuff]

Jank Alignment (Duplicate)
Vanilla Townie (Duplicate)
Vanilla Townie (Duplicate)
Vanilla Townie (Duplicate)

And it told me to pick from that list. I did. I never specified which to discard.

[Dechs Kaison]

Just double checked. The (Duplicate) part wasn't actually struck out. But otherwise that was the format.

[Dechs Kaison]

Whatever. That's all I've got.

My lunch break is almost over and I'm not going to have internet the rest of the afternoon while I'm working, then I'm driving home for three hours. I will have one more chance to check this thread between now and when I go to bed tonight.

Deadline is hours away. I would rather lynch Needful than Ika, but Ika is L-2 and Needful only has two votes. Ika isn't giving us any content despite the pressure, fell through on the promises, so I'm ok with that lynch. I want a lynch as opposed to no lynch, so Ika gets my vote for now.

VOTE: Pirate Ika

If you guys would rather hang Needful, like I said, I'll be back one more time much later tonight after I get home and I'll gladly hammer that one home.

[Dechs Kaison]

I'm Judas. Couldn't resist two chances to win over just one example as town.

[Dechs Kaison]

Example was the wrong word. Stupid tablet. Meant chance.

[Dechs Kaison]

On tablet and calling my family that is in the states right now. Give me 20 minutes.

[Dechs Kaison]

Starting with my easy ones.

90% Scum:
NeedfulThings - Defended WW, made a terrible push on SC, switched gears as soon as there was pressure back on it, and went after the most quiet lurker with nothing but a meta-case. Highly emotional wording, frequent use of hyperbole and general manipulative language. Look at the case he made on me and notice the outright lie in it among other failings.
Whomping Willow - I feel like I've made my case on him well enough by now, but basically the timing of his transition from doing stuff to trolling us and how it lined up with pressure he received, then his complete non-cooperativeness and not giving a single reason for anything he's done. He's caught scum and he had to govern himself to delay his hanging.

100% Town:
Prawneater - Newb tell right away, claiming the weak cop because he read a wiki page for how to behave as town.

90%Town:
Copper223 - Always had a town lean to him, but I started feeling this strongly about him after our back and forth.
SovietCrocolisk - Many little reasons. I like how his second head has been behaving. I can tell his first head is a newbie and was just floundering early, honest mistake. Needful being my primary scum pushing the lynch on him. The way he was on my case even right after I started tearing apart the SC case Needful made. All together, I'm very sure he's town.

Special cases:
Kiwi - He's either town or some kind of survivor. I believe the role he claimed is genuine, but his play matches a survivor better.
Guyett - I really like him. I can tell he's a good player. He knows what questions to ask and who to start asking. His only interactions are with me so far, though, so I don't have enough to read his alignment. I don't like his push on the strategy I know I've used as scum in this setup. Be careful with him, but definitely follow his leads. If he's leading a charge and you hang a townie for it, that's when you should be looking very hard at him. Otherwise, listen to this guy.

Town lean:
Soren - Seems rather inexperienced, but genuine in attempts to participate, learn, and find scum. Tends to be weak on the mechanics and makes incorrect assumptions at times, but the intent is good. Poor results from Soren (unlike from Guyette) just imply incompetence, not manipulation.

Ika I can't say anything about. No posts and no response to our pressure. It's unsettling, but I don't think there's reason to say Ika is more likely scum than town, just totally inactive.
Kaboose's posts have been short and few between. I can't be sure one way or the other.
Kitty I haven't been paying attention to. We haven't had a lot of interaction. No read.
Guile is a combo of Kitty and Kaboose reasons for not having a read.

[Dechs Kaison]

Ok, so I'm going to make a case to let me live till tomorrow.

1: You know I'm one of the following: Judas, Saulus, Underdog, Survivor.

If I'm Judas, I'm on your team until you hang me, then you have to hang me again.
If I'm Saulus, I'm not on your team yet, but I can't communicate with the actual scum team and I don't have a night kill. No threat here.
If I'm Underdog, then I'm actually a survivor for now, and who we hang today determines my alignment. Let's say we hang scum, then hang me tomorrow just to be safe. No threat.
If I'm Survivor, then I'm on your team until you're in mylo, in which case you hang me to be safe. No threat.

Basically, I'm not a threat to town no matter which of the four I am and in the worst cases, I'm the known threat. You should still be going after scum that can kill you and if the game somehow isn't over and we're not getting night killed anymore, hang me. You win.

[Dechs Kaison]

Lovely post.
One question though:
If you think needless is scum, why are you in the wagon they are driving?

I've explained this already in these two posts:

Here are games I had with mollie:
Micro 445 (NB: subtract my posts)
Open 573 (NB: subtract Nacho's posts)
Micro 415

This is just a small piece. From what I've heard and seen, this is a pretty well established pattern.

This is a start and it's good enough to be suspicious, but I noticed something else: The two games you referenced where Mollie is scum she's also in a Hyrda, and the town game she's on her own. Her posting more may be a symptom of not having a second head to rely on.

You have anything where Mollie is scum and not in a Hyrda?

In the meantime, Pirate Ika is already at L-2 (and intent to hammer from SC). I want to give Ika a chance to at least post some content, give us a sober list of reads with reasons, anything to make a decision on. If they can't do that and we've got a deadline which is getting close, fine, I'll hang them for lack of something better.

Deadline is hours away. I would rather lynch Needful than Ika, but Ika is L-2 and Needful only has two votes. Ika isn't giving us any content despite the pressure, fell through on the promises, so I'm ok with that lynch. I want a lynch as opposed to no lynch, so Ika gets my vote for now.

VOTE: Pirate Ika

If you guys would rather hang Needful, like I said, I'll be back one more time much later tonight after I get home and I'll gladly hammer that one home.

If Ika is scum, it's on the other team from Needful. But no one else was behind the Needful wagon and any lynch is better than no lynch.

I would much rather hang Needful, but I've been having trouble getting people behind me.

[Dechs Kaison]

Ok guys, one more thing. It's 10:30 PM here and I've had a really long day. I work at a construction site out here in the desert. I really want to go to bed.

Deadline's in six hours. If I go to bed, that's it for the Day for me.

Are we going to hang Needful or Ika?

[Dechs Kaison]

I'm staying up another 20 minutes tops.

[Dechs Kaison]

Saulus is Mafia aligned, but doesn't have QT access and doesn't know who the scumteam is (because they'd just reveal everything after they died first time).

[Dechs Kaison]

You're not off the table yet either desh

DECHS!

THERE"S A C IN MY NAME.

THE S IS AT THE END!


THOR DAMNIT!

[Dechs Kaison]

VOTE: Whomping Willow

Whomping you can't know if kitty is scum with ika as you're just a governor. So explain yourself.

I wanna know why he thinks Copper investigated him.

Did I miss where he claimed something like that?

[Dechs Kaison]

Hey guys.

Psychiatrist (Target someone each night, if they are an SK they will become a Vanilla Townie)

Possible SC killed himself trying to shrink Kiwi?

[Dechs Kaison]

Hey guys.

Psychiatrist (Target someone each night, if they are an SK they will become a Vanilla Townie)

Possible SC killed himself trying to shrink Kiwi?

Fill me in on why you think that's a possibility, please.

SC's role was shrink. Who in this game was playing most like an SK?

I've been saying for a while that Kiwi was playing as a survivor and picked PGO to avoid targeting.

If SC believed Kiwi was 3P, but not survivor, he may have thought Kiwi was SK-PGO. He'd have expected to die, but he would have turned the SK into a townie to make up for it.

[Dechs Kaison]

VOTE: Kitty

[Dechs Kaison]

If I could distract everyone for a moment.

Hey Needful, I told you I'm always right. Well, I was wrong about you, but everything else seems spot on. Not bad for day one reads, don't ya think?

Spoiler:

90% Scum:

NeedfulThings

- Defended WW, made a terrible push on SC, switched gears as soon as there was pressure back on it, and went after the most quiet lurker with nothing but a meta-case. Highly emotional wording, frequent use of hyperbole and general manipulative language. Look at the case he made on me and notice the outright lie in it among other failings.

Whomping Willow

- I feel like I've made my case on him well enough by now, but basically the timing of his transition from doing stuff to trolling us and how it lined up with pressure he received, then his complete non-cooperativeness and not giving a single reason for anything he's done. He's caught scum and he had to govern himself to delay his hanging.

100% Town:

Prawneater

- Newb tell right away, claiming the weak cop because he read a wiki page for how to behave as town.

90%Town:
Copper223 - Always had a town lean to him, but I started feeling this strongly about him after our back and forth.

SovietCrocolisk

- Many little reasons. I like how his second head has been behaving. I can tell his first head is a newbie and was just floundering early, honest mistake. Needful being my primary scum pushing the lynch on him. The way he was on my case even right after I started tearing apart the SC case Needful made. All together, I'm very sure he's town.

Special cases:
Kiwi - He's either town or some kind of survivor. I believe the role he claimed is genuine, but his play matches a survivor better.
Guyett - I really like him. I can tell he's a good player. He knows what questions to ask and who to start asking. His only interactions are with me so far, though, so I don't have enough to read his alignment. I don't like his push on the strategy I know I've used as scum in this setup. Be careful with him, but definitely follow his leads. If he's leading a charge and you hang a townie for it, that's when you should be looking very hard at him. Otherwise, listen to this guy.

Town lean:

Soren

- Seems rather inexperienced, but genuine in attempts to participate, learn, and find scum. Tends to be weak on the mechanics and makes incorrect assumptions at times, but the intent is good. Poor results from Soren (unlike from Guyette) just imply incompetence, not manipulation.

Ika

I can't say anything about. No posts and no response to our pressure. It's unsettling, but I don't think there's reason to say Ika is more likely scum than town, just totally inactive.
Kaboose's posts have been short and few between. I can't be sure one way or the other.
Kitty I haven't been paying attention to. We haven't had a lot of interaction. No read.

Guile

is a combo of Kitty and Kaboose reasons for not having a read.

[Dechs Kaison]

Fun fact: I didn't shoot Soren.

Also, I have no idea what is going on in this game.

Then why'd you say you were going to?

(I think I know, but I'd like to hear it anyway.)

[Dechs Kaison]

Would you have done anything different?

[Dechs Kaison]

Oh. Ok then.

Are you happy with the Kitty lynch and the plan to Kaboose lynch tomorrow?

[Dechs Kaison]

So, if I get the setup right, with 13 people, at least seven had to be town. Not Judas, not Survivor, not anything funny. Just Town.

That means at most six people are not-towns. I'm one of them. WW was one of them, Ika was one of them, and Kitty was one of them.

That leaves two more. Sure would suck if they were both werewolves and I was really an underdog, wouldn't it?

[Dechs Kaison]

So uh. How did I not die to Kitty?

[Dechs Kaison]

Ah. You just missed the Guile blocking him Night 2.

[Dechs Kaison]

I really wanted to have some kind of role, but I got only vanilla cards.

Underdog seemed strictly worse than Town, but it was ten times more interesting.

[Dechs Kaison]

Yeah. This game was anything but balanced. Town lynched threats all three days.

[Dechs Kaison]

Meh. Just an advantaged setup. Four wolves and two serial killers is essentially the field that seven townies had to handle.

If you'd have lynched town Day 1, I'd have been on your team, but you'd still be down an extra townie from the start. Not sure that would have been any better.

[Dechs Kaison]

I was so tricky because even I didn't know what my alignment was.

[Dechs Kaison]

This game was one giant mess

Well, yeah, I don't envy you basically being a serial killer.

Still, you could at least try to play.

[Dechs Kaison]

Admittedly, I had you all on different teams. But I had Kitty with mollie. Dechs with copper.

But that's just the thing. I was town on the first day. I wanted to hang scum.

[Dechs Kaison]

The fact you didn't choose the discard indicates you are using the unique card as your alignment.

This means you are either {Survivor, Underdog, Saulus or Judas}

Now that the game is over, I thought this post was super weird. I don't think it helps town so much. It helps DK way more as it gives him a list of credible claims. I think it would have been better to let DK make up his claim first.

I already knew exactly what he said. Hell, pages before I GAVE you guys this list of things I could be.

I was going to claim Judas unless we lynched Town day one, then I'd have come out and claimed Underdog.