Mini 1851 : Order of the Stick Mafia - Epilogue

[Kagami]

First.

VOTE: nacho9/v]

[Kagami]

VOTE: nacho

[Kagami]

Why do you think she voted like that?

[Kagami]

First two reasons aren't especially interesting to my mind, and I wouldn't consider nacho the top wagon.

[Kagami]

That's fine.

[Kagami]

I think it would be a worthwhile exercise to fill in these blanks, for the benefit of my comprehension:

If farside is town, the most likely explanation for her vote is _______.

If farside is scum, the most likely explanation for her vote is _______.

[Kagami]

What do you think about wisdom, Infinity?

[Kagami]

Here's a spoiler on my fill in the blanks, infinity:

One likely reason for town-farside's vote is that she agrees with wisdom. The other reasons are uninteresting and generally in line with the "not wanting to take nacho to L-2" thought, though I don't think she'd vote you in particular if that were the case.

For scum-farside, the reason is once again Wisdom's earlier statement. She'd feel that there's a real possibility the wagon has legs and be happy to be on early, especially when there's not a real need to justify it. I find your reasoning to be fairly shallow and unlikely. I see no attempt to "appear to be doing something."

[Kagami]

Alright folks, let's speed-lynch him before he wakes up.

[Kagami]

I'm ambivalent.

[Kagami]

re: peregrin

[Kagami]

I think wisdom and infinity are the same alignment.

[Kagami]

Rule out is prob a bit strong, but scum-infinity would consider that town-wisdom was correct about him tryhard-ing and would give particular weight to that opinion.

Instead he appears to have completely ignored wisdom's post in considering farside's position.

[Kagami]

Rule out is prob a bit strong, but scum-infinity would consider that town-wisdom was correct about him tryhard-ing and would give particular weight to that opinion.

Instead he appears to have completely ignored wisdom's post in considering farside's position.

How do you think he would have responded to it as scum? I'm skeptical because I'm not really sure how him giving weight to that opinion would translate to the thread, if that makes sense.

I think it would translate, at the very least, in him thinking that farside potentially had a reasonable motive for voting him, which doesn't come across in our discussion of farside's motives.

[Kagami]

My fundamental issue with this whole thing is that his treatment of wisdom's "me no like tryharding" attack and farside's emptyish vote attack is oddly asymmetrical.

In going into the farside thing, I didn't get any sense of why he questioned her beyond (ironically) a desire to appear to be doing something.

[Kagami]

Hey nacho, do you think you can guess who my two favorite lynches are right now?

[Kagami]

Hey nacho, do you think you can guess who my two favorite lynches are right now?

Do they rhyme with infinity and wisdom?

No, that possibility is currently backburnered. One of my favorites is rather unlikely to be scum with infinity.

[Kagami]

I think scum-wisdom would have pursued you more after the tryhard push.

[Kagami]

tryhard poke, really.

[Kagami]

You guys are terrible guessers. Maybe you should start with people who you personally think could be scum.

[Kagami]

I doubt two scummos jumped on you with such silly reasoning, wisdom.

My current frontrunners are actually Shadow and Leon. I'm surprised by the diversity.

[Kagami]

Shadow's opening post looks motivated by "being safe." The initial part of his rule-of-three 147 is reasonable, but I don't like the wisdom bit and the final part also feels limp-wristed to me, as if the point were to mention an buddy in a negative light.

I also think the townreads on infinity aren't terribly well justified, and am suspicious that three players have it. I would guess that exactly one infinity-defender is scum regardless of his alignment.

[Kagami]

I have kraska as #3. Let me double check.

[Kagami]

Town: perepere, Tammy, infinity
Lean town: nacho
Lean scum: kagami

I'm in class and internet sucks here so I'll get back to this when I'm back home

[Kagami]

There's a difference between playing safe and having intent to play safe (especially in RVS).

[Kagami]

forgot about peregrine, but I think he's town anyway.

[Kagami]

I doubt two scummos jumped on you with such silly reasoning, wisdom.

My current frontrunners are actually Shadow and Leon. I'm surprised by the diversity.

I'm not.
Did you explicitly disagree with any of the names tossed out?

No disagreement with wraith or cakez. I would guess wraith before cakez.

[Kagami]

yep

[Kagami]

It was the 6th page when I made the vote. Were you expecting a large case? His ISO was like 10 posts at that point.

I'm inclined to think that you simply didn't have a reason you were able/willing to articulate at 291.

[Kagami]

Which I don't think is strongly alignment-indicative, but I certainly don't think it's worth town points.

[Kagami]

VOTE: shadow

[Kagami]

VOTE: wraith

[Kagami]

I'd like to hear a bit more about your Tammy, nacho, and kraska reads before I reconsider that^

[Kagami]

I'd like to hear a bit more about your Tammy, nacho, and kraska reads before I reconsider that^

Not much more to say on that front.

Nacho - Competent, insightful, and even-handed. We're thinking along the same lines but Nacho is much better at expressing it. He's made plenty of observations that have influenced my thinking

Kraska - Nacho-lite. Has had a knack for picking up on what's motivating my posts when Wisdom has attacked them. I disagree with several of her reads but to each their own.

Tammy - Has made some good contributions thus far. But as said, Tammy seems like the type of player that's hard to evaluate for certain without some flips because making good contributions seems effortless to her.

Okies, how about a bit of detail on bulb too, to the best of your ability.

[Kagami]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

What does this mean about wraith's post? I'm not sure how to interpret it

[Kagami]

I don't dislike the wall at all, except perhaps for wisdoms point,which isn't horribly damning

[Kagami]

I think farside vote is L-1

[Kagami]

I'm at the level of depression right now that I'm probably just going to prodge at best.

If you're town, this is the part of the show where you need to be rereading the thread and making some compelling arguments about why your scumreads are scum. You may not think you can improve on your existing stances (or may be unwilling to), but you're certainly capable of drawing some "if we assume <my_scumread> is scum, then <other_player> is likely scum because of the following interaction: ..." which you should have been thinking about anyway.

Alternatively, you can present a very compelling case about why you are town. While you weren't really my favorite lynch prior to this post, you are now. I remain very open-minded, though. Frankly, farside is probably the only player I really like for "highly probably town."

[Kagami]

I'm at the level of depression right now that I'm probably just going to prodge at best.

@mod

- V/LA for standard weekend duties.

Someone asked me about scum reads earlier, I'll try and get a post out a little later, I hope to not have to wait until Monday to do so.

It's monday, btw.

[Kagami]

not sure why it added wraith's post again

[Kagami]

Catching up now. Kagami, do you want my scum reads as of Thursday, or do you want me to catch up and provide them as of now?

Both.

[Kagami]

VOTE: Leon

[Kagami]

oo, are we going to get GI in the wraith slot?

[Kagami]

Hiya grey. Are you looking for someone?

[Kagami]

Kagami's reasoning is seriously "there's three people townreading Inf, one must be scum!" jfc

So Kagami either has townreads on Wisdom and Wraith now or they're scum.

No.

[Kagami]

Grey isn't wrong about bulb, but that may be because we never got conclusions for that last post (though that was due yesterday regardless).

[Kagami]

Kagami's reasoning is seriously "there's three people townreading Inf, one must be scum!" jfc

So Kagami either has townreads on Wisdom and Wraith now or they're scum.

And no.

[Kagami]

Ha, forgot I had already said that. Silly phone

[Kagami]

Kagami's reasoning is seriously "there's three people townreading Inf, one must be scum!" jfc

So Kagami either has townreads on Wisdom and Wraith now or they're scum.

Wait, why is cakez town?

[Kagami]

Btw, if anyone's a miller (i.e. is evil-aligned), they should have said so by now.

Day 2+ miller reveals => lynch.

[Kagami]

Kagami's reasoning is seriously "there's three people townreading Inf, one must be scum!" jfc

So Kagami either has townreads on Wisdom and Wraith now or they're scum.

Wait, why is cakez town?

ok, nvm. You think you were the third player, whereas I had completely forgotten that you also claimed a townread on inf in your first post.

That has absolutely nothing to do with my vote on you.

[Kagami]

Farside may have had the best reads. There are shenanigans afoot, I feel.

[Kagami]

Doesn't seem necessary.

I like the current gamestate, though I'm getting a bit impatient about a few thing.

[Kagami]

I found your 584 to be a special sort of ridiculous, but in large part it was because voting you seemed more useful than voting wraith or shadow at the time.

[Kagami]

Hiya grey. Are you looking for someone?

I'm going to assume the answer to this is "no," which makes for a pretty astonishing coincidence.

[Kagami]

Right, I forgot my wagon started after that post.

But you also expressed a scumread on me in 202, what was your reason for scumreading me then?

Iirc, shadow->you interaction and probably something else that I could only generate through revisionism.

[Kagami]

oo

[Kagami]

I think maggie must have left a bit ago, we might be in for some suspense.

[Kagami]

Ok, then the mr. scruffy thing was a coicidence.

VOTE: GreyICE

[Kagami]

Any particular reason not to ask for a claim?

[Kagami]

Do you have some interaction with Mr. Scruffy that would explain wraith's earlier futurama crossreferencing?

[Kagami]

I was thinking that slot was likely belkar.

[Kagami]

I'm Belkar, Kagami.

I get that, it's just a crazy coincidence that wraith decided to do some awkward "scruffy doesn't like blah blah" when Mr. Scruffy is actually flavor relevant. Would have made sense with wraith being Belkar with some Mr. Scruffy related ability, or just as a flavor crumb.

[Kagami]

(You're also evil, btw, unless you have a lead sheet handy)

[Kagami]

Yep people. No kill tonight = scum Wisdom.

No, it's kill tonight => almost certainly town wisdom, and any other conclusion has obvious problems.

[Kagami]

Sigh.

My townlean on the slot was because I thought he was softing Belkar.

When I found out he wasn't, my reaction was that he lied.

The Scruffy thing could've been a weird quirk, but my townread on the slot is gone.

So Belkar role is town?

Belkar flavor is town. GI is neither belkar nor Mr. Scruffy. It's apparently some coincidence that wraith did the scruffy stuff pre-game.

Wisdom is probably belkar as claimed, especially given that MoI accepted the "stab" flavor for the dayvig, where simply having "kill" or some other method-neutral flavor would have been a better go-to for any scum-flavor-with-belkar-safeclaim on the assumption that the scumteam is Team Evil (which has no reasonable "stabber").

I'm not going to give the possibility that wis traded a dayvig for the NK any weight until there's actually a missing NK, and I don't think GI's conviction in a scumread on wisdom makes a lot of sense, especially given his prior conviction that bulb was scum.

[Kagami]

holy crap that role is powerful.

[Kagami]

what is leon at?

[Kagami]

what?

[Kagami]

It makes no sense, wisdom.

[Kagami]

Why would you have a fakeclaim of any sort if you're a lyncher who lynches a flavor that is almost certainly scum?

[Kagami]

Why be BP on top of it?

And a better-than-cop shot?

[Kagami]

The vig shot is what makes you not worth lynching, I think.

I have to think about this.

[Kagami]

Do X-shot abilities get consumed if they get RB-ed?

[Kagami]

@MoI

[Kagami]

It makes more sense to me as a fakeclaim for xykon than as anything to do with roy. Roy as investigative especially seems strange.

[Kagami]

If he doesn't have a vig shot than he's not town, so that's pretty simple.

p-edit: he claimed 3p that is effectively a powerful town role with a suicide clause.

[Kagami]

Grey, on further review, I'd like an explanation for wraith's Mr. Scruffy comments.

[Kagami]

Also if Leon didn't claim a vig shot I'd 100% be lynching him today but if he gets a kill through he's probably tellimg the truth. I very sincerely don't understand why Wisdom shot Bulbazak but that might just be reading failure; I thought Wisdom felt good about Leon/Shadow/Wraith and certainly didn't feel good about Grey and then pew pew Bulbs?

I've been thinking about this, especially in the context of the Leon claim, but why does scum-wis shoot bulb just as a leon-mislynch is highly possible? Seems like scum-wis implies scum-leon, which is possible, but seems pretty unlikely.

[Kagami]

but why does scum-wis shoot bulb just as a leon-mislynch is highly possible? Seems like scum-wis implies scum-leon, which is possible, but seems pretty unlikely.

I don't think that Bulba shot would throw off Leon-mislynch momentum all that much. Do you?

Could be various reasons, but 734 sounds like a legitimate "I don't know wisdom's flavor" and is consistent with his claimed role.

[Kagami]

I'm much more inclined to lynch Shadow over Grey today; I'm not really in love with Grey's entry (I was expecting him to grind Leon into dust for the "why me?" comments but I'm not sure he got a chance to respond to them), but I'd rather give him a day to do more meaningful things since he has more potential to be a force for town then shadow does probably. I don't have a strong scumread on Shadow but I've been meh on his posts and I feel decently enough townreads elsewhere so I'm willing to take a gamble.

This makes no sense to me.

[Kagami]

Wisdom, I'm amazed that we can agree so much this entire game, yet you managed to hold a differing opinion just long enough to dayvig town -_-

[Kagami]

@Kagami: you better have an awesome reason for wasting everyone's time like this.

Unvote

Whose time am I wasting?

[Kagami]

Lynch Grey, vig shadow. Worry about overnight shenanigans tomorrow.

[Kagami]

And this Mr. Scruffy business is a huge time waster.

Yes, yes or no questions are a huge time waster.

How could someone possibly answer such a query in a concise fashion, such that no one's time is wasted?!

You either know why wraith was referencing mr. scruffy and answer accordingly, or you don't and say "I don't know."

[Kagami]

Nacho, why do you think grey's play thus far is not alignment-indicative?

[Kagami]

How about "bulb is so scummy that I don't feel it's necessary to even comment on anyone else. And wisdom is a jerk, so he's scum too. O, looks like wisdom just killed my top scumread, he must be some obscure scum dayvig."

[Kagami]

Good, now we're done wasting everyone's time with Mr Scruffy-related banter. The world is saved.

[Kagami]

Your opinion is highly relevant, leonshade.

[Kagami]

Redcloak is likely a scum doc and Xykon and hello kitty could easily have kill resistance. I'm not lynching on the basis of vig-spec.

[Kagami]

could be the necrophiliac chick instead of hello kitty, I suppose.

[Kagami]

Kagami, I also don't think you answered why you thought that Wisdom shooting Bulba would derail Leon momentum.

Resetting the vote alone is sufficient, but it also gives him the chance to claim at L-X instead of L-1, which is pretty relevant. Even claim-stalling is reasonably often enough to stop a wagon.

[Kagami]

In any case, I highly doubt both wis and leon are scum.

[Kagami]

VOTE: shadow

[Kagami]

Finally read SirCakez's ISO, didn't seem scummy to me. I mostly agree with his reads, except for the Wisdom scumread (and we have Bulbazak's corpse to prove that town can SR Wisdom).

Here's the five slots I'm almost certain are town:

Wisdom
Infinity
Kagami
Tammy
kraska

I think these five players should have the most say in who I should vig (though they are free to add others to their townblock).

I believe Wisdom is belkar, but I'm not confident he's working for Town.

[Kagami]

The issue is that I have no idea why you would make that kill as town. I can come up with all sorts of silly reasons you might make it as some sort of non-town thing.

[Kagami]

I could imagine, for example, you being interested in killing a specific flavor, and that something bulb said made you think it was him.

[Kagami]

In any case, this isn't a tree I'm terribly interested in barking up.

[Kagami]

What is it in bulb's post that you found so offensive, in any case?

[Kagami]

How is it I have a tenth the time I'd like because of personal emergencies that literally came up yesterday and I'm still outposting half the town.

Perhaps some of them are not town, and are quite happy with the direction things are going.

I also want to remind everyone of:
E6) Expect the unexpected. Do not assume that standard expectations are applicable to the game.

Which implies that we can expect at least one technically-not-bastard element in this game.

[Kagami]

With grey's plan, you dictate the shot if we lynch you and you're town, though.

If we lynch grey, then if grey is scum, leon will ignore his target and will default to the group choice.

Seems like a win-win for you.

[Kagami]

leon never gets a choice.

[Kagami]

Realistically, regardless of how leon is directed, I estimate an approximately 0% chance the target dies if it's scum.

We're really just trying to eliminate the possibility that he kills a townmember we actually care about.

[Kagami]

Alright, last words?

If gi had anything worth claiming, he'd have claimed it.

[Kagami]

YES!^

There's far too much nothing coming from so many words.

[Kagami]

Mostly if GI flips scum, to my mind. I'm less leery otherwise.

VOTE: GreyICE

[Kagami]

Just to hedge a tail: If the lynch fails for any reason, you're killing GI.

[Kagami]

Hey wisdom, can you kill again today?

[Kagami]

Also relevant, flipped goon and apparently the remaining scum have nothing that can stop a vigorous shot.

The scum team is not terribly strong, and likely neither is town

[Kagami]

Vig shot

[Kagami]

Hey wisdom, can you kill again today?

nope

VOTE: nacho

Ok, please demonstrate by stabbing nacho.

[Kagami]

Presence of tsukiko the goon suggests 3 scum. Leon is petty likely to be exactly what he claimed.

[Kagami]

Hey Infinity, PV, farside, Cakez, Wisdom....I think that's all I know here.

VOTE: Pere

He's likely to lurk the entire game anyway, so may as well start here.

I don't think this is a buddy vote

[Kagami]

Catch up post is just about done, so here's my reads prior (mostly off memory, I really need to start taking notes). I'll do an up to date one once I've done my catch up post.

Town - farside, Wisdom, kraska
Leantown - Kagami, Tammy
Leanscum - Cakez, Infinity, Nacho
Scum - Bulba, Wraith

Everyone else was null due to lack of content or not being able to get a read.

Would bet a donut one scum in cakes, infinity, nacho, and other is wisdom or kraska.

[Kagami]

Town - farside, kraska, PV
Leantown - Tammy, Wisdom, Infinity, Nacho
Leanscum - Cakez, Kagami, Leon
Scum - Bulba, Wraith

(Details to come probably tomorrow, Mondays and meetings suck)

Kind of surprising that he'd promote kraska so much if he's a buddy

[Kagami]

Nvm last post, crossed wire.

[Kagami]

Shadow vs. Shaddow is annoying.

Like cakes poe-ing toward shadow.

[Kagami]

I'm here. Agree Nacho is scum, was waiting for him to say something.

Tammy, even if MoI told me "GI is Town. After writing that, I rolled a d4 and switched the alignment only if I rolled a 4," I would have hammered GI.

[Kagami]

d10 I might not have, but would feel bad about not doing so.

[Kagami]

Iirc, I was mostly pleased that pressure was being applied to my scumreads, which is often something I've have a difficult time producing myself, and anticipated producing interesting activity and interactions.

I was also waiting for some further info about the scruffy thing, which GI decided to fulfill with "despite being town, I was afraid of the amistad tell, so I decided to pretend I didn't read wraith's posting despite knowing full well what was going on."

[Kagami]

Strongman thing is too bad.

[Kagami]

Why do you think scum wisdom shot bulb, nacho?

[Kagami]

Someone asked about what I think about kraska: town unless some reason arises to doubt claim.

[Kagami]

Strongman thing is too bad.

Was GreyICE.

I don't understand this.

[Kagami]

Fwiw: Leon being a modified lynched on town makes a lot of sense. The alternative explanations are: 8-3-1 setup despite many vanillas, fake claim for no reason on pro-town 3rd party, or scum killed their own as a gambit.

[Kagami]

Kraska/Leon would be pretty hilarious

[Kagami]

836 and related makes that pretty unlikely

[Kagami]

The alternative explanations are: 8-3-1 setup despite many vanillas

9-3-1 you mean? 13 players

yes.

[Kagami]

While it would be nice in some regards, I still doubt farside is scum.

[Kagami]

Strongman thing is too bad.

Why?

Without strongman, scum's pre-lynch behavior would be more likely to fall into a nicer model. Instead it's a slightly weaker town-lynch-with-buddy-alternative circumstance.

[Kagami]

I'd be surprised if PV moved from nothing to strong town in 600->603 if PV was a buddy. I would guess that decision arose from general "PV is town" consensus, but I also think shadow would likely have been more guarded about the promotion if cakez is a buddy.

[Kagami]

Who do you consider to be viable nacho partners, wisdom?

[Kagami]

VOTE: nacho VOTE:

Will go through this when I can, but wouldn't mind seeing a nacho post in the meantime in any case.

[Kagami]

VOTE: nacho

Phones are annoying, should be a mafia scum app.

[Kagami]

Nacho/farside theory seems nice, but I don't think farside brings up her prevously-mostly-toenread buddy at the end of D1 for no reason when her M.O. up to that point was accusing only Townes (unless godfather or the like).

I'm still not sure what to make of the apparently quite possible N1 town victory. With Leon's kill being strongman, I see no reasonable defense against it unless xykon has some sort of resurrection mechanic or the like. If wisdom is scum and Leon is not, then I see no compelling reason for wisdom to make the bulb shot. While there's no great reason for him to do so as town, the value of a dayvig is much greater for scum.

On a related side-note, I find it somewhat distasteful that the scum win con isn't public, but that's just moderation differences, I suppose.

[Kagami]

Will review cakes again, but I have him as less likely to be scum than enough people that it's not a lynch I would vote for unless I've missed something major.

[Kagami]

I think Tammy's death would be so easy to justify the only reason anyone would shoot elsewhere is fear of doc protection.

[Kagami]

though it's with cakez and its obvious really

o.O

[Kagami]

Argument is that farside was claiming a scumread on cakes until 427 and then calls him null for seemingly no reason and forgets about it afterward?

[Kagami]

argument is everyone else is town and reading the game with those two as scum makes sense
also what I quoted when I did that

I still think nacho is a very strong bet, but agree that it's hard to read anyone else as scum in a world where Leon is not groupscum and kraska isn't pulling an excellent bluff.

[Kagami]

And assuming a conventional scum win-con.

[Kagami]

Would be hilarious if Leon was a traitor and killed his buddy.

[Kagami]

Cakez does have a lot of emphasis on indifference between GI and shadow for the lynch, though I sort of felt the same prior to the self-vote.

[Kagami]

... I liked the "I'm townreading kraska for reasons that are detrimental to town" point; it seemed like an odd angle for scum to take; I did very sincerely want to question it because I wasn't quite sure what it was referring to (it didn't look like it was PR fishing), but didn't want to open that particular can of worms. ...

Point in nacho's favor is that I was thinking the same thing around that time, which I think would come less readily to a buddy.

[Kagami]

Hold up leon. Why on earth would you sheep wisdom?

[Kagami]

This game should be crystal clear to your town self.

[Kagami]

I'm not casting doubt on you, I'm trying to figure out what Leon is.

My doubts about you have already been pretty well cast, in any case, though I suppose I'm happy you see thought process here.

[Kagami]

The problem with lyncher-on-town is that the game could still end N1, even though the lyncher wouldn't be playing optimally for that to happen.

We could have compelled town-lyncher-Leon to vig all the same if we had already killed two scum, and even a reasonable player may have felt their odds of success were maximized by making the kill and hoping it wasn't scum.

[Kagami]

Subject: Mini 1160 - Cupcake Mafia! Cupcakes Baked to Perfection!

Did this game seriously end in a single Day / Night phase?

Seriously.

Mods your theme and flavor was fantastic but any game that has

any possibility of ending by Night 1 isn't well put together.

Did you have anyone outside yourselves look over the setup?

[Kagami]

While that was 5 years ago, it seems like the principled sort of stance that isn't like to change, and this game isn't complicated enough for MoI to have missed it.

[Kagami]

If you're town, him SK.

Tammy is irrelevant if she can't shoot N1.

[Kagami]

Lyncher on town has a reasonable possibility of ending the game N1; SK can't.

[Kagami]

Lyncher fake-claim must have existed anyway, then.

I don't think he'd have claimed knowledge that Xykon existed if he wasn't sure of it, there was no guarantee mafia is team evil.

[Kagami]

If he's lyncher on town, he had a lyncher on scum fakeclaim and claimed a normal town fakeclaim to go with it?

[Kagami]

I do agree that lyncher fakeclaim is hard to swallow on an SK.

Obviously, he could have gotten creative, but that seems pretty silly in this case.

[Kagami]

I believe his Belkar claim thanks to my own fakeclaim being the same role name being the same.

I don't understand this.

[Kagami]

I would lynch wisdom with great prejudice If I knew you to be a pro-town vig.

[Kagami]

Especially with a strongman vig.

[Kagami]

Yes, it would mean wisdom is factional scum with near certainty.

[Kagami]

Maybe a lyncher on town constitutes a threat to town; then everything makes sense.

[Kagami]

Ok, then I also don't care about his flavor-cop, which he has no reason to be truthful about.

[Kagami]

The Elan flavor is already confirmed town to my mind, because that's who I'm sure it is.

[Kagami]

Tempting to just lynch leon and find out. We have to in the end, anyway.

I also like not having to make a hard decision, though I'm feeling better about wisdom.

[Kagami]

Meh, I don't think they'd stick their heads too far out for a partner who was dying down the road anyway.

[Kagami]

What I wouldn't give for a neighborizer right about now.

Who would you neighborize?

[Kagami]

Meh, doesn't really change anything to my mind. Kraska is just as much town if the missing NK is due to your being BP.

[Kagami]

Farside, do you remember what changed your mind on Kraska?

[Kagami]

Tammy, anything outside of role stuff in the hood?

[Kagami]

UNVOTE:

[Kagami]

I do feel like the game could be flowcharted from here pretty easily.

The gamestate is pretty cleanly split between a team in {farside, cakez, nacho} and something with wisdom in it.

I'm kind of entertaining Kraska-wisdom, which explains a lot of oddities in this game.

I would have liked to get to the bottom of the Leon issue, which would potentially clarify wisdom's alignment; nothing super obvious jumps out at me going through my iso.

[Kagami]

if only nacho wasnt so underwhelming game would be over already

Seems like stabbing someone who had a higher chance of being scum would have been the better way to accelerate the game.

[Kagami]

Is there some kind of nacho summoning ritual we should be doing? He's clearly keeping up with posts at the very least.

[Kagami]

Leon, what makes you think wisdom isn't xykon?

[Kagami]

We don't know flavor was necessary to perform the kill, or if any post was required at all.

No team evil member stabs people, which is part of why I'm concerned about it. It seems like very poor design to have an dayvig-flavor IC.

[Kagami]

I don't understand why you're butting in to a discussion that could easily yield information about your alignment.

[Kagami]

Maybe he has good reason to believe you're not xykon.

If I believed he has claimed scum, I'd be voting Leon without question.

[Kagami]

I still don't understand the quote.

You believe Wisdom is Belkar because you are Roy and your fakeclaim is Roy? Or is it that you and your fakeclaim have the same rolename? Or is it that your role name is the same as Wisdom's?

(and I still don't get how wisdom being belkar follows from any of those).

[Kagami]

Leon, I have some guesses about what's going on with your role, but let me ask you this: Is it possible that both you and town can win on N1 if Wisdom Daykills one scum, we lynch another scum, and you kill the last scum at night?

[Kagami]

by scum I mean Mafia specifically.

[Kagami]

The only way that makes sense is if you have some compelling reason to believe there's another 3rd party role who is a threat to town (i.e. a serial killer).

[Kagami]

I'm not voting anyone prior to nacho doing something, and I'm voting nacho if something doesn't happen.

[Kagami]

If wisdom

really

wanted to kill a specific flavor, I think he'd have demanded a claim first, which would be standard protocol anyway.

I also don't think it makes sense for a lyncher-on-town to constitute a threat to town, since that could put us in the situation where there are no groupscum and we would have to find this lyncher or just lynch his target and win together. That would be pretty silly.

[Kagami]

Leon, can you do something crazy for me?

Could you copy and paste Bulb's 730 and post it yourself (not in quotes, make it exactly like bulb's post looked)?

[Kagami]

Meh, I guess MoI pretty much confirmed the stabbing flavor in the Bulb death scene.

Alright, ok with calling wisdom town for now.

[Kagami]

And the hated bit, though that could be a bit of cleverness on Wis's part.

[Kagami]

If wisdom is town, Leon's seeming interest in just getting through today is concerning. Lyncher on town is a weakish but possible explanation if MoI just didn't think it was likely enough that he'd be compelled to kill the third scum after town kills two others.

[Kagami]

Or Xykon just has some kind of death resistance.

[Kagami]

Would nacho have shot tammy? Maybe.

Farside would have extra special interest in that one.

Meh, you might just be right wis.

[Kagami]

Why are you townreading Peregrine? Where did your townread on farside go?

Re-evaluating farside, my prior reasons for townreading her were not terribly concrete, while we're moving into a more fact-based gamestate.

Peregrine is of interest, but it still strikes me as odd that he'd go from non-existent to strong town between 600 and 603 as a buddy. I also think shadow's awkward RVS post is more about appearing to make the best choice for town than it is a buddy vote.

We don't know flavor was necessary to perform the kill, or if any post was required at all.

No team evil member stabs people, which is part of why I'm concerned about it. It seems like very poor design to have an dayvig-flavor IC.

Dayvig-flavor godfather also seems pretty strange to me unless I'm misunderstanding you in a big way.

Misunderstanding, apparently.

If Dayvig-flavor godfather is strange to you, why were so gung-ho on scum-wisdom? Does 1381 still represent the depth of your (former?) wisdom scumread?

[Kagami]

Or Xykon just has some kind of death resistance.

This doesn't really help things because strongman.

I was postulating something more extreme, like, doesn't flip on death and revives next phase or something.

From the looks of things, MoI is more the sort of mod who uses conventional roles, though, so a lot of those theories are out (including my favorite wisdom kill explanation, which would be hilarious: Exploding Rune).

[Kagami]

@farside

To my mind it is a fact that:

MoI did not allow for a reasonable chance that the game ends N1, which is highly possible if we take the current situation at face value.
Wisdom did indeed "Stab" bulbazak, and MoI substantially played along with the flavor of the kill if wisdom had any choice.
Wisdom did in fact suffer a penalty for making the kill.
(obviously) Bulb and Wraith/GI were Town, shadow was scum.

It is Highly Probable that:

There is no suitable flavor on the scumteam for the stabbing, so for wisdom to be scum, MoI deliberately designed the role to deceive the Town and went to the trouble of pushing that through bulb's death scene.
Leon killed shadow.
Tammy is BP/Vig, with limitations known to kraska.
Tammy was shot and thus Tammy and Kraska are town.
--- the alternative is that no shot was made, either to make Kraska+Tammy appear to be town and/or because scum had no NK on N1

[Kagami]

Simplest explanation for everything might just be that Leon is Xykon, with a conventional Roy fakeclaim which he embellished upon, and they decided offing shadow was worth the sacrifice.

[Kagami]

pre-flip speculation is a lot different that assuming someone's alignment for your reads.

That's usually exactly what people mean when they say "pre-flip speculation."

[Kagami]

...

Tammy was shot and thus Tammy and Kraska are town.
--- the alternative is that no shot was made, either to make Kraska+Tammy appear to be town and/or because scum had no NK on N1

Silly question.

How do you know Tammy was shot?

If scum was able to shoot last night and shot at town, that's the most likely explanation for the lack of a death. I put it as highly probable because it's not certain within a reasonable measure that that happened.

[Kagami]

I want to entertain wisdom-SK, but I don't think it makes sense for there to be a killing penalty then, and I don't think MoI would have added the last bit to 730 if there weren't one.

[Kagami]

Kagami, I think you might be getting way too lost in flavor/setup speculation.

That's nice. Do you have a summary of your thoughts that would be suitable for Mr. Cakes glazy eyes?

[Kagami]

Could you flesh out the cakez and PV read?

If they're PoE, then a brief summary of why each other person is likely town would be great.

[Kagami]

Why I'm townreading everyone else should be fairly obvious; is there a read that hasn't been explained or doesn't explain itself?

Sure, how about wisdom.

[Kagami]

And Infinity too.

[Kagami]

And farside.