Large Normal 240: Baileyposting [game over]

[Crescent]

To be fair, Fred's been attacking you since

well before

you started defending him.

[Crescent]

Fred voted you in #893, and you voted him in #939. He again de facto scumreads you... And Enchant, in #960.

His vote on Mala is opportunistic, following

you

just 11 posts after you vote her (#1029/#1040). He then jumps off to Enchant, again de factor scum reads you in #1094, then pops in at #1201 and gives an actual justification for it.

Fred's behavior towards you and Enchant today is very specific and consistent. I do not believe that you switched to defending him is particularly relevant. He's been routinely dropping in to effectively call you and Enchant scum without actually calling you scum most of the day, until he did actually call you scum.

It's actually a rather horrendous look.

[Crescent]

My

only

true reason for thinking Fred may be town is that Enchant has been by far the most openly scummy player today, and I don't think they're scum together.

Fred was the scummiest player yesterday, given Meg's flip, and it's not particularly close. The one danger your logic suffers from is that his play could objectively be qualified as "lazy", not "bad". All he's done is semi-tunnel on specific people while almost never giving any actual arguments all day, people he wouldn't even go as far as to actually say were scum for most of it. He's giving near bear-minimum effort because he can't be bothered to actually come up with the necessary arguments to push a vote. We've produced more content in this exchange than he has for possibly the entire game. There's

that

much fluff thinly disguised as substance in his posts.

[Crescent]

Did I really use the wrong version of bare.

Really.

REALLY

[Crescent]

my mispelling of psychology haunts me.

It bothers me more than it should that I used the wrong version of bare.

[Crescent]

And honestly after giving that kind of snap-summation on Fred going after Fire today I don't think I can realistically continue to say that Enchant has looked like the scummiest player today. There is nothing whatsoever that resembles town progression from Fred's actions towards you and Enchant.

[Crescent]

Anyways I'm about to start preparing for work and I ain't doing crap without a fresh VC.

I'm getting +$5/hour for working today and tomorrow so.... Yeah I want my monies <3

[Crescent]

And this reminds me that I earlier stated I believe that if Fred flips scum there's a decent possibility there will be exactly one scum on his "list"... And this was before he voted for Mala and started calling her scum.. And at a later time I stated that if Fred flips scum the first person to put the screws on is Mala.

I'm ok with holding to these trains of thought as they ended up connecting rather well.

[Crescent]

Ok yeah I'm not putting a guy to -1 right before I head to work. -2 I'd consider.

[Crescent]

Wait no he already is -1 what am I smoking.

[Crescent]

Huh, I just got Fred instantly by breaking Fire's argument on him with minimal effort.

...And of course Enchant is the hammer. Here we go I guess.

[Crescent]

Instantly murdered*

[Crescent]

Thanks for being such an awful waste of a playerslot and claiming for no damned reason Bugspray. Thanks a lot.

And this is what I get for not trusting my gut once again.

Lord I wish I were vig. We all know I'm not vig because I damn well would've shot last night.

[Crescent]

And yes I just refreshed the page every few minutes for almost 2 1/2 hours because damnit where I come from days come up when they're supposed to and I want Enchant or maybe Owen to just die here.

[Crescent]

Annnnnnd only one here.

Fun.

...May as well get an errand or two done.

[Crescent]

I'm okay with an Enchant elim. I think that one of my townreads is likely wrong. Could be Greeting, I suppose, but he might be right about Unsure.

VOTE: Firebringer

Yeah there is a virtually 0.00% chance you are getting me to vote Fire over Enchant, Owen, or

you

today.

I wasn't even trying to get Fire to vote Fred there, I merely pointed out how bad his argument for defending him was, and frankly Fire jumping to Fred as a result isn't a bad look, especially given it also made Gamma do the same, and Gamma just died and was town.

....And it led to a quick scumhammer by Enchant, of course.


Very much dislike the quick jump onto Fire. The quick jump on Unsure is a lot more understandable.


"I'm ok with an Enchant elim"

*Votes Fire while giving no reason for it*

You're gonna have to explain that Fire vote for me in detail because this looks like scum saying he's ok with killing another scum, but voting town for no damned reason.

[Crescent]

I am wondering why, in spite of being townread so widely, my reads, which I feel are very widely substantiated, are not being shared by the vast majority of players. The fact that there are players who supposedly townread me and whom I townread (

Crescent

comes to mind) and who for some reason keep refusing to work with me leads us nowhere. It's giving me a real headache and making me wonder if there is a point in me even speaking about my scumreads anymore.

And yes, some of you people who say are townreading me are lying scum who just know that there is not enough suspicion to scapegoat me and throw me out.

When have I

ever

said I townread you?

[Crescent]

In fact, to go a step further:

I gave reasons, some stronger than others, why

eight[/] players might be town to start day 2.

Andante, Bugspray, Enchant, Fire, Gera, Lowell, Owen, and Vivax, are all probably town to varying degrees.

Andante due to Meg's awful vote and her reaction to the bad train.

Bugspray because Fred was trying to literal policy vote them with 9 days left in day 1 to save Meg.

Enchant's vote on Bugspray reeks of town making it for funsies. Also don't think two scum jump on at the same time.

What Fire did with Meg alongside Pooky generally isn't ever a bus.

Gera's last two posts of the day are not posts I see him making as scum. Gera doesn't naughty point someone for a hammer if he knows the guy is going to flip scum.

Lowell either went super hard into bussing or other than me was the only town to actually still be playing before the day ended.

The way Fred stirred up Owen and Vivax suggests both are town. I already had Vivax as town anyway. He was clearly fanning that fite as an outsider and using bad logic in the process.

Andante, Gamma, Gera, Lowell, and Vivax are probably all town regardless. Lowell could be super-chaotic scum, or Andante/Meg could have done something really messed up, but those are niche possibilities that don't stand out at present.

Side note: I feel like Greeting pretty blatantly attempted to pocket me earlier today, and he also left both Bugspray and Lowell in his POE, which MT notably did not. If there's any "Wild Card" that wouldn't surprise me to see turn out scum in either scenario, it's him. I'll likely be dead long before the game gets to this point, but if all the more "obvious" scum candidates are gone, and there's still a scum left, look at this guy. If anyone is a "Deepwolf" candidate to me, it's Greeting.

That's the point of being a "Deepwolf".

I would not kill any of those players before I killed Greeting at this present time.

Saying I've ever called you town is flat out making things up.

[Crescent]

In fact, to go a step further:

I gave reasons, some stronger than others, why

eight[/] players might be town to start day 2.

Andante, Bugspray, Enchant, Fire, Gera, Lowell, Owen, and Vivax, are all probably town to varying degrees.

Andante due to Meg's awful vote and her reaction to the bad train.

Bugspray because Fred was trying to literal policy vote them with 9 days left in day 1 to save Meg.

Enchant's vote on Bugspray reeks of town making it for funsies. Also don't think two scum jump on at the same time.

What Fire did with Meg alongside Pooky generally isn't ever a bus.

Gera's last two posts of the day are not posts I see him making as scum. Gera doesn't naughty point someone for a hammer if he knows the guy is going to flip scum.

Lowell either went super hard into bussing or other than me was the only town to actually still be playing before the day ended.

The way Fred stirred up Owen and Vivax suggests both are town. I already had Vivax as town anyway. He was clearly fanning that fite as an outsider and using bad logic in the process.

Andante, Gamma, Gera, Lowell, and Vivax are probably all town regardless. Lowell could be super-chaotic scum, or Andante/Meg could have done something really messed up, but those are niche possibilities that don't stand out at present.

Side note: I feel like Greeting pretty blatantly attempted to pocket me earlier today, and he also left both Bugspray and Lowell in his POE, which MT notably did not. If there's any "Wild Card" that wouldn't surprise me to see turn out scum in either scenario, it's him. I'll likely be dead long before the game gets to this point, but if all the more "obvious" scum candidates are gone, and there's still a scum left, look at this guy. If anyone is a "Deepwolf" candidate to me, it's Greeting.

That's the point of being a "Deepwolf".

I would not kill any of those players before I killed Greeting at this present time.

Saying I've ever called you town is flat out making things up.

[Crescent]

In fact, you even responded to my comment that you're my #1 candidate for that kind of player in the game, so it's not like you can say you never noticed.

I am going on V/LA for the next few days. I uphold my reads I gave so far.

If by the time I get back

Fredrick A Campbell

is at E-1, I will announce intent to hammer and hammer against my better judgement, for the simple reason that it's best to eliminate someone than no one and this still seems to be the choice of most townies. Given the way Day 2 is going, realistically I don't see any other solution, and I would name

Fredrick A Campbell

as a townlean, not a townread too.

Hi

Gamma Emerald

.

And yes,

Crescent

, I worked with both you and

Vivax

, because both of you are active and both of you are my hard townreads. And if you don't trust me and think I'm a deepwolf because I'm good at emulating towniness (it is true, I am good at it), then look at whether my actions have harmed or benefitted town in this game. Not only did I vote out

Meg

, but also I'm not afraid to build my own case on Day 2. If

Fredrick A Campbell

flips red, it's going to be embarrassing for me as I keep defending him and pushing for a counterwagon, but I still keep doing it, because I think he's more likely town than mafia and I'm doing what I think is best for town.

And yes, the last days here in Europe have been really awful when it comes to heat. What's worst is that this is just the beginning, and the summers of the future will be looking like that thanks to climate change.

[Crescent]

One of those eight is dead, one of those eight is probably scum, and the other six are all people I have no interest in voting for anytime soon.

I'll take 7/8 to start day 2!

It is interesting though that you're not going after anyone on my townlist - You're just not going after my top scum either. Unsure being scum with Enchant is possible though, as Enchant jumped from MT to Fred while Unsure also had a wagon, and I kinda think MT is town for reasons that are admittedly not great given his general lack of productivity.

This would mean Enchant jumped from town train to town train and may have just been protecting Unsure.

[Crescent]

Nevermind I see it.

VOTE: meg

This is an ISO read of someone who wanted to have a fun game but is disappointed to have drawn scum.

Malcolm also a good vote. Chipping at the edges of ideas without ideas.

Wasn't too keen on Lowell D1 but also almost close to confirmed town for me from the info we have now.

Specifically this post. I don't think scum makes this post as the vote leader concerning someone scum would pretty desperately want to see remain in the POE in Lowell. This one post gives me a soft town read on Malcolm, as it's a thought no one else in the game specifically wrote out. and it feels like a genuine process to sort Lowell.

[Crescent]

I am wondering why, in spite of being townread so widely, my reads, which I feel are very widely substantiated, are not being shared by the vast majority of players. The fact that there are players who supposedly townread me and whom I townread (

Crescent

comes to mind) and who for some reason keep refusing to work with me leads us nowhere. It's giving me a real headache and making me wonder if there is a point in me even speaking about my scumreads anymore.

And yes, some of you people who say are townreading me are lying scum who just know that there is not enough suspicion to scapegoat me and throw me out.

When have I

ever

said I townread you?

I have read your ISO very carefully and you are correct. You didn't call me a townread and my belief that you did was mistaken.

Nonetheless, I believe I am deserving of a townread for all my pro-town actions in this game. And if you think that I'm a scumread then I dare you to build an actual case against me and vote me out today instead of saying some deepwolf bs because you're being paranoid.

Of course I'm being paranoid. You're obviously one of the most dangerous players in this game. It's practically my duty to be paranoid.

And, if you're town, you should be paranoid about me. It's simply natural.

Like, Gamma townread me almost immediately in 2272 without giving a reason, and I immediately got suspicious of it. Players that throw shade on me early and often are very often town, as I tend to be a magnet for early scumleans from town players who don't know me. In 2272 it was Scorpious. In 2273 it was Corwin. Can't talk about 2276 as that game isn't over yet.

[Crescent]

And you guys probably don't have it, but "rule #1" is a pretty big thing where I come from.

Rule #1 effectively being "If X player is still alive on day 3, and you don't have any good reason to townread them, they're probably scum." Unless scum has a strong power read on someone, the kill is on the "best player alive that scum thinks they can get away with shooting" almost every time.

We've had scum intentionally kill vanillas over PRs just to kill the PRs later so they have an excuse to still be alive. I've done it, myself~

Another part of why I shot a unclaimed-but-obvious-by-meta VT over 3 town PRs on night 3 the last time I was scum.. He was both the only person who was a serious threat to vote me out, and leaving all those PRs around gave me an excuse for staying alive.

[Crescent]

Greeting you've camped on my slot all day yesterday and didn't engage me even though I sufficiently refuted your points against me. If you're truly town, you should at least consider that you're wrong about me. Your Meg push is the only thing about you and jury's still out there if it's a full bus.

If Malcolm flips scum, you could easily be scum for townreading MT for being the same as the game you modded but I can personally testify that MT is

not

playing his town game based on a game I shared with them, especially near end D1 and D2. They're more a shoot-from-the-hip here's-my-analysis guy but here he's been sheepish and distant. I think you holding on to that read even though D2 happened makes me think your reads are not progressing as much as they should be.

I'd like to hear some elaboration on MT here, given I also soft-townread him.

[Crescent]

Good, be paranoid about me if you're town. It's better for the game.

I've already said I could see Unsure pairing up pretty well with Enchant, who is the #1 person I want dead.

Why do you think Enchant is town?

[Crescent]

I'm not paranoid about either Crescent or Greeting, both are surely town.

What makes either of us "surely town"?

[Crescent]

Considering gunsmith claimed to start day 2 for no reason like a dunce probably not.

[Crescent]

I don't think the writing was on the wall for Meg yet.

But also you kind of contradicted your own point.. If scum thought the writing was on the wall for Meg, scum should

want

to vote Meg in that situation, as very early hammers often benefit scum more than town. My vote was placed because it was dragging, but there's also a pretty clear potential scum motive for having placed it as well that you flat out just pointed out, especially when you combine that I was pairing Meg and Fred, and am the leading cause of why Fred died yesterday, when my vote didn't even end on him because he suddenly went from -3 to dead in a flash.

But yeah, that was pretty ridiculous that Lowell and I suddenly seemed to be the only two players interested in content and it's part of why I got townpings from him in the moment.. His behavior has also remained almost entirely consistent since them.


Uno felt like he was riding along the Fred train without.. Really backing it very much. He'd make comments such as I made a "decent" point against Enchant, but it didn't feel like he was really pursing them. I wouldn't vote him before Enchant, but he's someone I'd vote today.

About the only reason I ever gave him a townlean to begin with was under the premise of Fred being scum. He's also in that section of votes on Meg where scum is most likely to park a bus vote and see how it rides. Lowell and Prince are also in that section, but I don't think it's Lowell.

[Crescent]

If you think scum thought the writing was on the wall, it makes objective sense for me as scum to place the vote on Meg when I did.

Though really, I've seen town go inactive for 30+ hours before under pressure here. I was basically trying to put him in "post or die" mode.

[Crescent]

Huh, I just got Fred instantly by breaking Fire's argument on him with minimal effort.

...And of course Enchant is the hammer. Here we go I guess.

do i get to blame u for my failing then

Yeah I wasn't actually trying to get you to vote him. I was just trying to show you your argument was bad.

Fred's vote is primarily on me in general. I should've listened to my gut and tried to nuke Enchant, but I'm often a coward when it comes to actually following my gut.

[Crescent]

im pretty strong on greeting town and don't know where crescent was seeing buddying/pocketing from greeting yesterday or where the suspicion is coming form.

Just fear of deep wolf?

Your "suspicion" of Crescent is a book scum tell, called trying to discredit obvtown people for bad reasons. I see no universe in which Crescent is mafia, and you seem to be the only player pursuing her with a flimsy explanation (769).

This is pretty obvious to me. It pinged me immediately - I just kept it in my pocket, much like I did with things regarding Elsa in 2273.

[Crescent]

Yeah the way Fred played he has 0 right to yell at anyone.

[Crescent]

i guess thats indirect buddying?
usually when i buddy as scum i just say nice things about the person to them. While calling them town. Agreeing with them alot no matter their opinions.

I didn't see that beyond greeting saying u were town.

It's how strongly he said it.

[Crescent]

Cats are love.

Cats are

life

[Crescent]

can we not post a VC for every single vote please... if you do it, please just throw it in a spoiler, but spamming "unnoficial" VCs for every single vote is not appreciated... you literally posted 3 on 1 page... and no one changed votes in the span of you posting them

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

Hard town-tell for Andante.

can we not post a VC for every single vote please... if you do it, please just throw it in a spoiler, but spamming "unnoficial" VCs for every single vote is not appreciated... you literally posted 3 on 1 page... and no one changed votes in the span of you posting them

VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

This feels like something scum could easily feign annoyance over for the sake of an early vote to look busy.

I hardcore disagree.

I challenge

Vivax

to a duel!
HURT: Vivax
In order to

ACCEPT

the duel request please use the

HURT

tag targetting me. In order to

DECLINE

the duel request please use the

HEAL

tag targetting me. I will be unable to duel another player until you respond to this duel request.

Upon acceptance of the duel you will be allowed to choose your weapon.

WTF is this shit.

Bugspray's entire existence was so bad he made NM seem like an active and competent player.

[Crescent]

They made*

Good lord why do I keep doing it with Bugspray I don't do it with ANYONE else this game.

[Crescent]

Enchant hammered the moment Fred hit -1 got 'em.

[Crescent]

Well good news is your avatar is a cat so I have to be like 10000000000% sure you're scum to yeet you because cat.

BECAUSE CAT

[Crescent]

MalcolmTucker

, who is your biggest suspect right now and why?

On gut alone probably Enchant at the moment. But it's a hard read to articulate as I alluded to above. There's probably been some sheeping going on D1 because I'm finding that I TR the vast majority of the player list. I'll maybe need to take a more detailed look at Unsure. Fancy's push on me D1 felt a bit weird and forced but I've not noticed too much either way to make me scumread or townread Unsure.

Enchant is your NUMBER ONE SR??? Right now?? You're kidding right??

Enchant is my #1 SR and I have been very forward on this. I'm not bothered by this at all.

...The primary difference is post #1479 is basically pulling a Fred and saying Enchant is scum just because he doesn't townread him. All MT has really argued is Enchant comes off as lazy - He hasn't really argued Enchant is scummy.

I would like some clarification from him on what makes Owen likely town though, as I feel like I have no idea who this guy is actually making a team out of. Enchant and... Who?

[Crescent]

FancyPants* - lurk idk
Vivax - troll town
MalcolmTucker - prob maf
Greeting - idk always failed at reading
Firebringer - hot null would't care to vote
Fredrick A Campbell - can afford to die
Dwlee99* - lurk
Crescent - eh idk
Lowell - prob town
bugspray - always failed at reading
PookyTheMagicalBear - always mafia
geraintm - prob maf
UNOwen - idk i started yawning at this guy, pretend that's there's something funny drawn at next 3 persons and i call it a day, too much effort for me
Prince of Paterson
Andante
MegAzumarill

Going back to Enchant's reads list, not sure you'd typically expect huge detail, but this is really hedgy in particular - one confirmed scum just left out completely too.

You're going to have to do better than a post almost the entire game dismissed as NAI within 100 posts of it being made to justify saying Enchant is your #1 scum read. This is a really weak point to be latching onto.

[Crescent]

Reading back, KT is way harsher towards Red than my memory was telling me. I remembered it as them being defensive... But it's not quite that. #438-439-448 is kinda horrid spew that accuses Red of defending Galron, and immediately slots her as scum with Galron in a pretty blatant deflection.

Buuuut he also calmed down and backed off pretty quickly after that, which does feel like an actual progression.

[Crescent]

Oh crap I posted that in the wrong game.

Yep I'm tired.

[Crescent]

Owen has notably been on my list of the three

most

likely bussers, but the point about Fred being town does make it less likely than, say, Prince. I just looked up what led to Prince's vote in post #541.

Since Meg hasn't answered still, the reason I'm asking about his opinion on the wagon is that I'd expect someone who had the reaction they had to the mini pileup on Fred would also show a bit of concern about scum being involved in the almost completely unexplained five vote wagon against himself. Responding to it by ignoring the votes and instead accusing FancyPants of tmi for calling it a bad wagon doesn't seem consistent. To me it looks like Meg couldn't tell whether the wagon was a bluff or not and didn't want to risk looking scummy by overreacting.

Hadn't really thought Meg was scummy previously, but this is actually fairly convincing reasoning. I'm okay with this, maybe Pooky is right after all.

VOTE: MegAzumarill

Prince votes Pooky in #450, and doesn't

ever

talk about Meg until post #460 (Not even when he votes Pooky). The votes just became 4-3-2-2 with Meg in the lead in post #441. Prince's vote to try to discredit Pooky comes a mere 9 posts after Meg, a train led by Pooky, becomes the vote leader. Prince's vote on Meg comes just 8 posts after Lowell puts a 5th vote on Meg.

So basically, he ignores the train until it's at 4 votes, then tries to discredit it by going after it's leader. The train holds it's momentum, and he drops a vote on it immediately after it hits 5 votes. Combine that with the only person this guy has ever seemed to actually want to vote off (Fred) being town, and him starting the day by saying "Let's kill Enchant" and voting pretty obvtown Fire instead, this has definitely emerged as a vote on Meg that sticks out.



Also, Fire is the least likely to be a bus on that train, just because of the way he and Pooky interacted. To start day 2, I said it "Generally isn't ever a bus".

[Crescent]

Why doesn't what you said apply to Firebringer?

"Votecount analysis is easy to manipulate. If you see Crescent, Andante and

Prince

coming in with the oomph wagon on Meg, you might want to start to cover your butt if you don't feel like fighting."

I get Greeting but her vote wasn't that critical to the elimination and we already see she can be inflexible with her reads. I've yet to deepdive her meta but if that's NAI then Greeting can still be scum. What makes Firebringer the least likeliest busser?

Crescent wasn't even coming in with the "oomph". Neither did Andante. Plus, I thought you had Prince as a scumread? Explain.

It's less the vote itself and more specifically how he interacted with Pooky. For starters, the only way that's a bus is if Fire was effectively planning to hard bus from the start of the game to begin with. To do it in a half-assed, rushed way that spends half his time just shitposting with Pooky isn't really a scum mindset. They were practically just dicking around together more than they were actively hunting for scum... And Meg just kind of rolled over and died.

Secondly, he buddied up with Pooky pretty hard in the process of this. Why shoot him night 1? Pooky displayed virtually no actual reads in the game (Most of his posts were meaningless fluff), so he couldn't have been killed because scum were afraid of his reads. Fire would've had him totally pocketed.

[Crescent]

maybe fb scum

anyone feels it?!?!

We could just kill

you

dundundun

Enchant what happened to you? Same to Crescent.
You don't feel the same as at earlier times.

Just 4 more votes on Owen for another mafia down, presumably. Not voting that outs you.

I underestimated how much energy my return to work would take, and I added on something extra I shouldn't. I'm overloaded and I'm shuffling around what's getting the short end of the stick when I can.

I'm not sure how much can be read into Lowell's vote hopping on day 1. As we saw on day 2, his vote hops around a lot. The only difference is the primary vote on day 2 wasn't scum.

One thing I will say about post #1570... That argument on Lowell doesn't compare to the argument on Prince, who attacked the wagon leader (without mentioning the wagon) the moment it took the lead, and then joined the wagon the moment it expanded. I'm going to do some research into this

During this time frame, it goes from 6 Fred/3 Meg/2 Andante to 4 Fred/4 FP (now Unsure)/4 Meg/2 MT. This means in this 75 post stretch, an utterly ridiculous amount of votes swung around, and

exactly

one of them was actually placed on Meg.

And the only vote placed on Meg during that time...

Was by Owen

, in only his second non-RVS vote of the day. So basically, for Owen to be bussing here requires him to have ignored the trains on Fred (town), FP/Unsure, Andante (most likely town), and MT... To bus. Owen never moves his vote off of Meg at this point and it remains there the rest of the day. Unless it's

specifically

Owen/Unsure, it's hard to see this as a bus after Fred's flip.

With Fred flipping town, I find myself far more inclined to trust Owen's vote on Meg than Prince's. Prince is basically just a scummier version of virtually everything Owen has done this game.

[Crescent]

VOTE: Lowell
This is the way forward. My reasoning is 866, but the short explanation is that Lowell gave this:

Biggest scumread that stands out to me that I didn't notice before is

prince

. Not going to derail the perfectly good

Fred

wagon but if this feckless town chickens out let's do him or

Meg

next.

Andante

looks worse than I remember. Some likely towns are:

gerain, crescent, pooky, vivax

.

as his excuse to jump from the scum Meg wagon with momentum, to the town Fred wagon that was faltering. And then went on a vanity vote against Prince rather than immediately return to the Meg wagon when the Fred wagon collapsed.

Great point!
VOTE: Lowell

Did you really quote your own post and revote your own target?

[Crescent]

We have like 7 different trains coming from 13 different people on day 3. It's kinda nuts... And of course my #1 scum is the only vote on my #2 scum so that's fun.


Since I seem to be one of.. Only like two people who sees that Enchant is scum. I think I'd also rather vote Unsure over Owen here, even though I'm not particularly enthused about Owen's behavior on the Fred train yesterday. It's hard to see Owen bussing on Meg there if Unsure isn't also scum, and I think Prince has basically just been "Owen, but worse". Like, Prince immediately shading Lowell based the post after Owen did pretty much sums up a lot of that feeling on it's own.


Here's my other issue:

This game is dead. Scum wins.

it's dead cause people are luike "NO!!! I DON'T WANT TO WAGON X" but then don't give alternate wagons

VOTE: UNOwen

VOTE: UNOwen

I don't have an example of how UNOwen plays town so far, so I'd have to go purely off the feeling at the entrance

I can get behind this.

VOTE: UNOwen

That's 3 weak as shit votes in the span of 5 posts. I wouldn't even call this a train. One curious Owen fact though: Owen has never stated any argument or read concerning Prince

the entire game

. This feels kind of weird given my opinion of "Prince is a scummier version of Owen". I could see this being a pocket of sorts by Prince though, as his actions have mirrored many of Owen's. Carcalilly did this as scum with town DWLee in MN2272. It's a major part of why I got to the correct conclusion on day 3 that DWLee was just super scummy town.

I doubt it, but will be very sad if Prince turns out to be scum.

Except for this post, which is completely out of context and has nothing to do with anything else being posted on that page.


If you think Owen is scummier than Prince, then sell me on it instead of making 3 votes that look like crap in 5 posts. I already had Prince as my #2 scum at the start of the day (as evidenced by my chart yesterday), and that gap between him and a potential #3 has only widened today as I've done more analysis.

[Crescent]

The tl;dr of all of it is I think Prince is quite a bit more likely to be scum than Owen, and I think Owen's chances of town go up if Prince is scum just because of how consistently he has and continues to mirror him.

[Crescent]

The reason I doubt Prince is scum is pretty much what you just said Crescent. If he's scum then chose to spend most of his energy day 1 on backing me up, which given my thread presence is surely a terrible investment from a scum POV. Alternatively he's just a townie who found some of my posts agreeable/understandable. This doesn't seem very unreasonable to me. I agree the Pooky push doesn't look great in context, apart from that though I don't have any issues with his posts. He looks like town approaching the game in a rational way, theoretically his posts could be faked by scum, but it could also be exactly what it looks like. There's not much of an argument that I can see for him actually being scum.

I'm barely even factoring the scan in to be honest, considering I'm of the belief that at least 2 of the remaining scum are immune to it anyway.

I was riding the idea that the wagon got "serious" when Lowell and Prince voted him twice in 9 posts, but the one who actually put him in to 4/the lead was you, that much is true. Lowell only jumped

after

you did this..

Can't write more gotta get back to work

[Crescent]

Good lord so many prods.

Also Vivax voted Enchant, then voted him... Again and called him -2.

Ok...?

[Crescent]

I've completely lost my focus on this game and all I can hope to do is get it back for day 4 if I'm alive for it. Once I shuffled this game to the short end of my attention span I kinda just... Totally failed to draw it back into focus. Given the insane amount of prods it feels like I'm not the only one, and I think I've kinda just totally fallen into the overall lack of energy.

Also are people voting Prince now because I'm still down for a Prince vote. I also agree with Andante that I actually.. Didn't trust the Enchant flashwagon. How did it go from me being effectively the only vocal person to call him scum to him suddenly going -2? Why were people who apparently thought he was town suddenly voting him? Honestly I barely have any idea what my reads are anymore. That push on Enchant looked awful, and it's why I didn't join it. "Yay" discipline.

Owen's argument on Prince made a sort of sense, but... Even if you disregard everything else (Like his entire day 1 looking bad), Just the shadowing of Owen alone mirrors Carcalilly doing the same thing with DWLee in 2272. DWLee was easily the most scumread town in the entire game. They also townread Carca, and actively fought Carca being voted off day 2. A Prince scumflip almost certainly makes Owen town in the exact same position DWLee was in 2272..

Gera was the opposing train that day, for the record.

[Crescent]

"I townbinned enchant!!!" "Everyone vote enchant"

and I'm the one with shit pushes? excuse me??

VOTE: Greeting

On a side note, it makes me

very

uncomfortable to see Greeting railing all over Unsure for two days, then following him onto Enchant, a player he has consistently called town. I looked to see if anyone else noticed this, and sure enough...

And he's doing this in hard defense of Prince, the

lowest poster in the entire game

, by calling him "An active contributor?"

How is a guy with less posts than the guy who died night 1 "an active contributor" by any stretch?

Greeting never talked about Prince between post #886 and #1718, where he suddenly emerges as a hard defender on a guy he's barely ever talked about, while trying to push a guy he's called town all game.

Prince of Paterson

is an even worse push than

MalcolmTucker

.

Of course, there are some signs which should push town into looking into this slot if it's still alive in the late game. But none of these signs can be seen right now, and I think that this could be a town counterwagon to

Enchant

.

I've thought about it again and the fact that there is a really bad counterwagon to

Enchant

means we've hit the jackpot. Scum

Enchant

reacted nervously and went on to push a town contributor (or at least this is how

Prince of Paterson

should be viewed, as of Day 3), instead of someone who is more in the neutral ground, like

Firebringer

.

Everybody, vote

Enchant

. He needs to be hammered.

Yeah no. You popped in this TR on Prince out of absolutely nowhere. You listed him in your POE early, but have dodged ever giving a single read about him, until suddenly late on day 3 where you super TR him for being a contributor when he's the most inactive player IN THE ENTIRE GAME?

VOTE: Prince

I think my Deepwolf worries about Greeting were right!

[Crescent]

tl;dr

Greeting manufactured a scum read on Enchant out of absolutely nowhere and a town read on Prince out of absolutely nowhere at the same time, in order to follow the guy he's been trying to vote out for two solid days onto Enchant. The sudden TR on Prince is for a legitimately terrible reason, too.

[Crescent]

I was supposed to be off work today, too, but I'm not, have to go in soon, and I won't be off again until after this day is over. Catching something this big does get the juices flowing again, at least~

[Crescent]

Quick summation:

Prince scumflip means Greeting scum, Owen town, Insure town, Enchant..Town?

Last scum maybe just Mala?

[Crescent]

And wow would this day turn into a nearly exact replica of day 2 in 2272, even down to the vote patterns on these two trains.

[Crescent]

Also Andante is 2273 me at this point and almost certainly town vote this and you suck.

Off I go.

[Crescent]

I have a brief amount of time to post but I can't read any but I see Greeting posted, and I'm guessing he focused on Enchant.

What I want from him is to explain Prince. His early ISO is effectively saying "Prince is in my POE" several times, while never giving a read on him.

He then ignores the guy exists for about 830 posts before suddenly yelling "But Prince is town!" when he actually gets pressured. We've had a lot of people get pressured seemingly at random in recent days.

I've been saying Prince is a top two scum option for me all day. I'm not the only one to scumread him for a long while, either. I want a convincing explanation of where this town read in #1518/1519 just came from because it feels both

very

conveniently timed and lackluster, on a guy he hadn't talked about once in any capacity since #886.

[Crescent]

I want to sleep more but I should probably catch myself up on this.

This day turned out so weird for me. Half the game gets pressure seemingly at random, and it seems to be ending with my #1 and #2 scumreads entering the day leading trains on each other.

Just looking at the votals first.. A cursory glance at votes shows Mala put Prince -1. This leaves 3 people off the trains, and MT is notable as he's one of the very few to actually publicize a heavy scumread of Enchant.. So before I even get into any actual catch up, I want to ask MT what he thinks about what's going on right now, as it kinda feels like his vote should be down.

The same kinda applies to Gera (who put Enchant at #2), but this is a guy who totally vanished from existence day 3 in 2273 as scum, and I don't see scum Gera's reason for bashing his head against Vivax here. This also started before the day shifted from 6 people with two votes or less to most of the votes being on Enchant and Prince.

..And now let's actually read some new posts.

But UNVOTE: Prince for now. No hammers while I read stuff.

[Crescent]

End of page 73 and all I have to say so far is:

BEARVENGERS

BEARS

https://tenor.com/view/bear-tree-tree-s ... if-5887952

[Crescent]

Ok and Mala's vote looks even worse and out of left field than I expected it to.

To be perfectly frank, I've been worried about Greeting ever since I saw his day 2 POE - Notably the sustained inclusion of Bugspray. All I saw Bugspray as at the time was a player scum still desperately wanted to try to find an excuse to vote off because they're so bad at mafia.

Anyway... Not a lot seems to have actually happened. Greeting getting angry at me is actually... Kind of a good look on him.

But really, if it were just the SR on Enchant or the TR on Prince I woulda been fine with it.. But both popping up out of the blue at roughly the same time raised all sorts of alarm bells for me. Anyways I'm in a rare situation where I've scumread both sides of this vote since before this day even started, so using Prince to leverage you was... Honestly fine by me. I think this vote has a chance of being scum/scum trying to look like one scum/one town, especially given Prince's "I want to vote Enchant for no given reason" followed by voting Fire for no given reason at the start of the day.

[Crescent]

Also Greeting...

2273 was worse than this. I had almost 800 posts and 1/3 of them were screaming at useless players. There were 5 town actually

playing to win

in that entire game. The Detective who got voted off day 1 probably posted more times in Twilight than he did during the day itself. That's 2273 in a nutshell.

Scum left alive a player until day 5 to help hammer me because he relentlessly wanted me dead for voting him on day 1 and refused to ever entertain any argument for me being town based on this one vote I placed. I was confscum to him the entire game from the time I voted him on day 1 until the end of the game.

[Crescent]

And I'll clarify further: We had

100% mechanically confirmed scum that could not possibly be town under any circumstances

at endgame.. And he STILL voted me over her.

[Crescent]

Prince of Paterson [5]: Enchant, Lowell, Andante, Vivax, Crescent
Enchant [4]: Prince of Paterson, Unsure, Greeting, UNOwen
Vivax [1]: geraintm
Malakittens [1]: Firebringer

not voting [2]: MalcolmTucker, Malakittens

these people off wagon. I wanna address this before we end the day. I understand if it's day 1, but here we're on day 3. Mala just voted the leading wagon, threw that to e-1...

but I think there's something with these 4. and like, at least 1 maf in them.

gerain/Fire/Malcolm/Mala

like, they're just trying to stay out of everything... so if we lim town, like we most likely will, they "had no part in it"

idk, I'm not a fan of 4 people not really voicing opinions one way or the other

This is exactly why I questioned him most specifically given he had Enchant as scum all day but felt like he practically ignored the wagon.

Yay I actually managed to get back to sleep.

[Crescent]

To be perfectly frank, I've been worried about Greeting ever since I saw his day 2 POE - Notably the sustained inclusion of Bugspray. All I saw Bugspray as at the time was a player scum still desperately wanted to try to find an excuse to vote off because they're so bad at mafia.

Anyway... Not a lot seems to have actually happened. Greeting getting angry at me is actually... Kind of a good look on him.

People have differing degrees of attention they pay to what is going on. Some players in here, and that also includes

bugspray

have a way of making posts that I find inherently offputting and I pay very little attention to them. Which is the reason why I missed

bugspray

's claim, but when others have pointed out that he made a claim I corrected that mistake.

Now, I have no idea why some people keep raising the issue of

Lowell

being a scumread when

bugspray

literally towncleared him as all mafia members should yield in a red gunsmith check. But if I can miss stuff, other players can miss it too, especially in a game with so many players that is rather slow-paced.

Oh I actually agree with the whole ignoring Bugspray thing. I didn't notice the Gunsmith claim right away either. My take was simple even before that, though: Scum don't set up a player that worthless at the end of day 1 to look better with an awkward late countertrain - They set up a player who actually has value. The only scum motives there would've been genuinely trying to murder a bad player, and I was wary of anyone who still pushed them.

Also you kinda have a way of posting that triggers me. It's like I get the feeling that some of your posts don't actually say as much as they look like they do.

[Crescent]

I wouldn't argue it killed the game.. I'd argue it did the opposite. Essentially nothing happened for like a week until we got to Enchant and Prince leading wagons. That's why his omission now is so glaring.

[Crescent]

Though side note I am also voting no one right now as I unvoted to take Prince off of -1.

[Crescent]

like there's a bunch of posts subtly pushing enchant, but there's no actual commitment to that read. Most everyone else is voting someone, there's 2 major wagons, Malcolm has no interest in commenting on it.

like, all this is in addition to the D1 thing I will never forget with how malcolm talked to me, I think malcolm has to be maf. I really do. and hey, no better time than now to throw a wagon there

I called him out on how lacking his Enchant push was at the time, and I've been anti-Enchant all day.

I just want to know why he avoided the train, as he's directly said he doesn't see the argument for Prince being scum. It feels like a contradiction to not have his vote down on Enchant.

[Crescent]

In fairness, MT has played frozen and you just personally pointed out that scum is more likely to play frozen here.

[Crescent]

Oh I wasn't planning to actually vote Malcolm there, just pressure him... Though he hasn't posted in about 26 hours after said playing "frozen".

...But if he wants to keep being inactive into prod territory, that might make it a different matter.

[Crescent]

I feel like we're now just waiting for a guy who hasn't posted in 30 hours to explain his actions of the last time he actually posted.

[Crescent]

I've been thinking vig in general could make quite the bastard role in a setup like this with at least one scum doctor and at least 1 scum RB., But there are so many problems with this claim.

Let's theorycraft a bit and say scum has two doctors and two roleblockers (This has actually been a working theory of mine I've had since Meg's flip, but I never saw a point to bringing it up). What can that claim

actually

tell us? Scum could RB it, or even try to protect it's target as getting said player voted off is far more beneficial to scum than simply seeing them get shot at night. The claim is basically useless once it's actually been claimed.

Which brings up my next point: Why not just... Claim a normal vigilante? If I had the role Malcolm is claiming, I shoot the scummiest person on Fred night 2, and if they flip town, I claim normal vig if I get pressured. (As scum vigs are banned in normals). If they don't die, I claim a scanner and take them out that way, almost certainly baiting a shot in the process for a solid 1/1 tradeoff.. The only reason for town to

ever

claim the loyal part is if they shoot someone who doesn't die.

Third... How can you be so completely passive at acting on scum reads if you actually have this role? How do you not use this role night 2 after that trainwreck of a day? How do you sit there and eventually do absolutely nothing?

But the most damning thing really is: That claim is actually of an extremely powerful role for sorting the game out that's being treated like a joke. Two townflips of highly suspected players right now would be a virtual godsend, because it means we've lost the equivalent of one day phase, but shed two people we probably would've voted off anyway.

This is either a very convenient scum claim, or a [i[horrendously[/i] misplayed town role on every conceivable level. This feels like someone spewing a role without stopping to actually think about how powerful the role they're claiming actually is.

[Crescent]

I've been thinking vig in general could make quite the bastard role in a setup like this with at least one scum doctor and at least 1 scum RB., But there are so many problems with this claim.

Let's theorycraft a bit and say scum has two doctors and two roleblockers (This has actually been a working theory of mine I've had since Meg's flip, but I never saw a point to bringing it up). What can that claim

actually

tell us? Scum could RB it, or even try to protect it's target as getting said player voted off is far more beneficial to scum than simply seeing them get shot at night. The claim is basically useless once it's actually been claimed.

Which brings up my next point: Why not just... Claim a normal vigilante? If I had the role Malcolm is claiming, I shoot the scummiest person on Fred night 2, and if they flip town, I claim normal vig if I get pressured. (As scum vigs are banned in normals). If they don't die, I claim a scanner and take them out that way, almost certainly baiting a shot in the process for a solid 1/1 tradeoff.. The only reason for town to

ever

claim the loyal part is if they shoot someone who doesn't die.

Third... How can you be so completely passive at acting on scum reads if you actually have this role? How do you not use this role night 2 after that trainwreck of a day? How do you sit there and eventually do absolutely nothing?

But the most damning thing really is: That claim is actually of an extremely powerful role for sorting the game out that's being treated like a joke. Two townflips of highly suspected players right now would be a virtual godsend, because it means we've lost the equivalent of one day phase, but shed two people we probably would've voted off anyway.

This is either a very convenient scum claim, or a [i[horrendously[/i] misplayed town role on every conceivable level. This feels like someone spewing a role without stopping to actually think about how powerful the role they're claiming actually is.

[Crescent]

Please don't let Malcolm get away

If I had any intention of letting Malcolm get away with completely ignoring the trains, I don't draw the attention I did to him in the first place~

The claim is hot garbage though. In situations where I don't know the player, I'll bank on it being surprised scum not stopping to actually think on their claim rather than town horribly misplaying their role. I have no reason to believe MT is that bad of a player, but he certainly has contributed very little overall to this game...And of course he didn't even answer why he dodged the Enchant train at all, which is the only reason this rush happened anyway.

I will add though that an MT scumflip does put Lowell somewhat back on my radar, as Lowell is one of the only people in the game MT has actually taken a strong defensive stance towards. He hasn't said really anything at all about the guy since calling him town at the start of day 2.

It would also... Actually make it conceivably

possible

that Enchant/Prince is town/town (Yikes my scum list) and MT simply wanted nothing to do with either wagon. I find scum freeze most often when they get surprise TvT trains because they hesitate to join either. When I was a newer player, it was one of my biggest issues as scum - Being able to definitively choose a side on a sudden TvT late in a day.

[Crescent]

Problem with A is his role is useless once claimed. Town has no reason to ever disclose that part of his role under these circumstances. He can claim he shot someone who didn't die, and we can't trust it. Even if we flipped him town after this point, we

still

can't trust it. We can't prove scum didn't RB him or save his target.

The only meaningful result that claim could provide comes from shooting town, which is something that claim should've already been doing

Say no one "extra" dies tomorrow and he claims he shot at X player. What do we do with this?

[Crescent]

Oh and that's why I simply find it impossible to trust. Town has no reason whatsoever not to claim a normal vigilante here. I believe we have a significant chance of simply being in WIFOM hell tomorrow regardless of his alignment. It's either scum or it's a horrendous misplay.

[Crescent]

Actually I'd specifically claim a vig with a special feature, but refuse to expose what that feature was, only to reveal it if someone I shot didn't die.

Also, he still didn't even bother to vote Enchant or anything, yet he made 3 separate posts for his claim. This suggests he's more focused on making his claim stick than he is in actually hunting scum.

[Crescent]

Actually yeah this claim has to die for reasons that completely transcend his overall play.

If he claims he shot someone who didn't die, they can flip town, and it doesn't confirm him scum. We vote off town and learn nothing. If he's flipped town, it doesn't confirm the other player scum. We vote off town and learn nothing.

He has claimed something that has

negative value

for town once exposed. What it does have is high potential value for scum, as it can be used to push MLs, and/or bury town in WIFOM.

Even if I believed the claim (which I don't), I don't think I'd ever actually want him to take a shot.

[Crescent]

Did you miss the part where he can claim to have shot someone who didn't die?

[Crescent]

No, it doesn't. It tells us virtually nothing. It puts us into WIFOM hell where we get absolutely nothing out of the next flip except for the flip itself.

[Crescent]

It gives us a 1v1 situation.
The only way it wouldn't be 1v1 in that scenario would be if mafia doctor somehow figured out MT target.

And there's your problem, and why it means nothing. I also think scum may have a second RB (along with two doctors - it's been my theory since Meg's flip), which would completely invalidate MT if he's town no matter who he shoots.

We can

never

trust any result MT gives us. Even if he flips town, we cannot trust that he actually shot scum. I basically disregarded Bugspray's scan on Lowell, and I would disregard this too.

I find his claim so dangerous that even if I thought he was town, I would never want him to fire a shot.

[Crescent]

When I saw Meg specifically flip 1-shot RB, I theorycrafted scum having two 1-shot RBs and two doctors. I have no actual evidence with which to base this on, but I have thought about how bastard a role like vig could be with that setup.

The problem also remains that there's just no good reason to have ever claimed the "loyal" part if it's true. It removes the scum-confirming power if you're town, but what it does as scum.. Is give you an excuse to not actually kill anyone. When you combine it with all the other "wrong" things going into this claim, the level of overall misplay it would take for this to be a town claim is honestly horrifying.

[Crescent]

I understand that mechanically, we keep him alive and let scum kill him we can see what happens overnight yadda yadda but i really dont want to do that when it's glaringly obvious that Malcolm is scum here.

Oh and that's the other problem. That assumption. This same assumption was flying around about Scorpious following his claim day 1 in 2272, that scum would certainly shoot him that night 1, and my argument is I would never shoot him in that position as scum. Scum didn't shoot him night 1. They didn't shoot him night 2 either.... And he was town!

If he's town, there's a

absolute 0% chance

I aim a shot at him overnight if I'm scum. I'd insult my teammates if they even tried to shoot him. I don't think any scumteam would actually consider shooting him here, so he's almost certainly going to be alive tomorrow if he lives today. If he's scum, he'll claim a no-kill on someone. Even if he's town, I give it decent odds he'll claim a no kill on someone.

I feel like all roads lead to WIFOM hell and it's terrifying because that's can just implode towns.

[Crescent]

I'm going to bed, but I'm not putting him E-1. It's still only a small fraction of the playerbase who has reacted to this claim, or to his reaction to the votes on him.

But also on one last note: Re-reading his last posts: He called himself a town counterwagon to scum Enchant, but.. Didn't really say anything else. This creates multiple problems on it's own.

If this were the case, that would also make Prince a potential town counterwagon to scum Enchant. He's vaguely shaded Enchant a lot today... Except for when Enchant actually had votes. Why did MT do absolutely nothing towards Enchant while Prince was going up to -1, while he was defending Prince? Where was the vote? He never even tried to explain this, and it feels like a massive contradiction in his actions.

To summarize: He made absolutely no attempt to explain his lack of action, which is why he got the votes in the first place - To pressure him to explain his lack of action. He completely ignored the actual cause of the train against him. Andante, Vivax, and I are the first three people who pushed this pressure on him to explain. Greeting was ambivalent and decided the answers were worth hearing. Enchant, Unsure, and Owen were the second wave that pushed him -2. He claims scum is pushing his counterwagon, but

who

are the scum pushing this counterwagon? Outside of Enchant, we have no indication at all. His response to his train was both evasive of the reason he was voted to begin with, and lazy in the way it deflected without providing any content.

And this is all completely independent of the claim that looks fake.

[Crescent]

I slept too much earlier in the day and I'm having trouble staying asleep now because of it. I also kinda think I'm getting shot tonight and have a feeling this day might be ended when I'm at work. Let's do my 3am phone post from bed thing and get some excess energy out.

MT being scum would make Unsure's town stock go way up, and play into my vibe day 2 that he was the same alignment as Fred. He's been trying to kill this guy for most of the last two days.

It's possible Greeting and I were bashing over lists of people that may all actually be town, though this doesn't sell me on Enchant the way it does Prince.

..Except Mala, especially given her only comment was parroting Fire making a point I shot down before Fire even made it in the first place.

It feels easy, but MT/Enchant/Mala would actually perfectly explain their combined actions in the last 48-72 hours.

MT claims SR of Enchant, but refuses to vote him. Mala claims TR of Enchant just because. She comes out of the woodwork to push Prince to -1, but can't get the hammer. Mala then pops in a while later to loosely defend the claim in a way that piggybacks off a town member. She sticks her neck out to defend both scumbuddies, but has no strong reason to be on town Prince as she hasn't actually made an argument to call anyone scum. Malcolm can't go there and contradict his entire day, so he dodges the trains and refuses to bus Enchant, hoping the Prince hammer comes quickly. Enchant sees the MT momentum coming for doing this, and quickly hops on, hoping it will just eventually blow over. He doesn't feel like he can ignore MT outright the way MT ignored him. MT makes a terrible claim, and Enchant feels forced to attack him for it.

But really, MT/Mala/Any other weak vote clinging to Prince (Like Lowell) has a solid chance of being your team if MT scumflips here. The only serious difference is MT simply went frozen when Enchant/Prince popped up as town/town fueling each other.

So basically we get a scumflip here and it's probably Mala + Another vote on Prince... And looking at the old votals the odd ones out there to me are both the aforementioned Enchant and Lowell.

Gera and Fire both being on splinters looks bad, but one's been VLA and the other both hasn't posted in like 32 hours, and isn't acting how I'd expect him to as scum.

I could possibly see the Enchant train being pure on an MT scumflip, but the Prince train... No. There's with virtual certainty at least one scum there, if not both. The more time has passed since I dropped my vote on him, the stronger my feeling has become that scum is trying to vote him off today. I've totally lost interest in this train at present.

In any case, Mala has 25 posts in nearly two full game days, and has yet to produce any argument for calling anyone scum. She is defending someone I think is scum, and is voting someone I now believe scum is trying to kill. There's very little benefit of the doubt to still give here, if any, given the complete and utter lack of genuine hunting for scum. I would wager she's scum, and at least one of the two players in the game she's defended is also scum.

..I always have more to say than I think I do with these 3am miniwalls.

[Crescent]

The problem with Malcolm still remains that even if he's town, I wouldn't ever want him to fire a shot, because I think the potential for harm outweighs the potential for good.

If he's allowed to live today, and doesn't kill anyone tomorrow, I am first post voting him, and going inactive until he is dead. I won't waste my time or my energy on the WIFOM. I am then ignoring his claim for the rest of the game no matter how it flips, and what he claimed to do.

And... He STILL never explained why he defended Prince, but refused to vote Enchant, who he had been calling scum. This explanation again being

why he got votes to begin with

. He's doing exactly what he did last night. He's leveraging the claim, but not actually giving us any answers.

Why did you refuse to vote Enchant? Why did you effectively sit there as Prince, whom you didn't like the argument on, was pushed -1, and almost killed? If the 7 people who drove momentum on you are scum led, who are the scum leading it? You have failed to do even the most basic amount of work required to justify your play or your current position.

I don't want to hear any more about this claim. I want you to explain your actions.

[Crescent]

MalcolmTucker [5]: Andante, Vivax, Unsure, UNOwen, geraintm
Enchant [3]: Prince of Paterson, Greeting, MalcolmTucker
Prince of Paterson [2]: Lowell, Malakittens
Malakittens [1]: Firebringer

not voting [2]: Crescent, Enchant

Can you make any sense of Lowell, Mala and FB's positions here?

Do you think there's no mafia there? Or is the mafia all on this MT wagon?

In which case, what's the downside to hammering around here?

Lowell hasn't been around in ages, and Mala's only comment was to sheep Fire in defending MT when he was still -2. Enchant them got off.. So basically, scum was likely never in position to hammer.

The funny thing about Prince's wagon now is I said there's scum there, specifically pointed to where I think scum might be, and now the only two players left on him are players from that shortlist.

I believe at least two of MT, Enchant, and Mala are scum though. There has barely been anything resembling scumhunting from any of the three, but they sure do defend each other. I think if you kill those 3. Then you kill Lowell if it's not all 3 of them. Good chance game gets solved in there.

[Crescent]

The problem with Malcolm still remains that even if he's town, I wouldn't ever want him to fire a shot, because I think the potential for harm outweighs the potential for good.

If he's allowed to live today, and doesn't kill anyone tomorrow, I am first post voting him, and going inactive until he is dead. I won't waste my time or my energy on the WIFOM. I am then ignoring his claim for the rest of the game no matter how it flips, and what he claimed to do.

And... He STILL never explained why he defended Prince, but refused to vote Enchant, who he had been calling scum. This explanation again being

why he got votes to begin with

. He's doing exactly what he did last night. He's leveraging the claim, but not actually giving us any answers.

Why did you refuse to vote Enchant?

Why did you effectively sit there as Prince, whom you didn't like the argument on, was pushed -1, and almost killed? If the 7 people who drove momentum on you are scum led, who are the scum leading it? You have failed to do even the most basic amount of work required to justify your play or your current position.

I don't want to hear any more about this claim. I want you to explain your actions.

I have voted Enchant now.

Your unwillingness to even entertain the claim is unhelpful - you are too deep-rooted here in assuming I am playing a logical and calculated game when I admit I have been a bit all over the place and uncertain with reads that game, something I apologise for since it's not been helpful for town. I defended Prince a while back because I didn't think they were particularly scummy. I vote sparingly and quite frankly can't remember why I didn't vote Enchant at the time - I could have been busy the next day and may have not wanted to place down a vote before being certain in case it was hammered. I may just simply not have bothered at the time.

I've made it pretty clear that just the concept of leaving your claim alive terrifies me, because I think we end up in WIFOM hell either way and I'd rather just idle out than deal with that.

And I don't care that you voted Enchant

now

. Prince was consistently ahead of Enchant in votes, and you did not even

acknowledge

that Enchant had a train. You weren't "too busy" to acknowledge Prince was getting a train, though.

I actually had a reason to be wary of the Enchant train at the time, a stance I've already elaborated on. It feels like there's a reason that's just missing from your explanation.

[Crescent]

Malcolm you are not like your namesake at all.

The only way your role is provable is if you kill a townie at night, which you've just said you don't want to do for the risk of hitting a PR.

I would be willing to have a go at someone we may believe to be scum with town consensus. Then you'd know in advance who I was going to hit.

Good lord no. The problem with your claim to begin with is that scum can easily just save your target if you're town.

You're claiming a role that is openly detrimental to town once claimed.

[Crescent]

And your claim isn't "double edged" at all. It's meant to fire like a madman and pick off the most suspected town in the game, or to find a scum and kamikaze it during the day. It's a very strong role. If I have that role, Fred dies night 1, and the entire game looks drastically different as a result. Your claim is only double edged once claimed.

But... It would fit a theme. Basically everyone I see with town power on MS horribly botches their role on every conceivable level. One-shot scanners wasting it on guys so obviously scum they got vigged anyway. Inactive vigs playing hero and shooting players no one in the game suspected.. And etc.

[Crescent]

Also in Greeting's defense a bit, he stopped trying to kill you after your claim, and merely supported the pressure on you to get answers out of you.

[Crescent]

Cat Meowing Vibes!

Meow~

[Crescent]

If town, I don‘t really see the justification for the former apathy and stalling unless there‘s some sort of Schadenfreude behind it, which is hopefully not the case.

Actually one question. What is this specifically referring to?

[Crescent]

The game is a matter of how many scummy players you have vs. How many days you have to deal with them. Even if that claim doesn't confirm scum, it knocks off one day-phase but removes two potential MLs. That claim basically IS "cop" if it's real, and doctor is a claim that can never be trusted given the setup, as was stated... Really early by someone on day 1, as apparently last time this kind of setup happened, a mafia doctor actually claimed doctor and coasted.

I play conservatively, and even I can see it as a power who's risk/reward makes it worth firing every night. MS games have way more vanillas than I'm used to seeing in games I've played before. (A game of 17 would have 5 scum and 4-6 town vanillas. A game of 13 would have 4 scum and 3-5 town vanillas). The game I hosted a little while back was 3 scum/5 town power/4 vanilla, and the better players found the setup overall slightly favored a scum win. In that kind of community, I could see holding onto a shot like that.

But there's probably like 8 or 9 vanillas in this game because of how this place works. Even if you just shoot two scummy vanillas at night and never confirm a scum, you've already had a significant positive impact on the game by saving it an entire day, as vanillas getting shot at night can be a godsend for games in general. The chance of hitting power and your chance of hitting scum are probably close to even.

The role you're claiming should always be shooting in a community like MS that trends towards low-power games, but it has no business ever claiming without a scum result, or shooting once it's claimed.

[Crescent]

Maf literally always claims "vig that never shoots" is the thing, like... hmmm give 1 more night, and if Malcolm doesn't shoot anyone/attempt to shoot, just kill malcolm tomorrow?

actually... if we lim town here, we're in the position we have to lim maf tomorrow right? idk how numbers work

There are 3 scum left and we have 13 players. If no "extra" kills ever happen, we will not reach lylo without voting off 3 town members, in addition to Fred. That's fairly standard practice for a game of this size. It should take 4-5 MLs for a town to lose.

This feels like a situation where scum could be scrambling to try to figure out where to actually get those MLs, and I think Prince is probably someone they just attempted to get one on.

[Crescent]

See that's also the thing... I'm not convinced scum doesn't have a second 1-shot RB anyway. If no one dies tonight (which I expect regardless of his alignment), I'm parking my vote on him first post and arguing for a day that's ended within 48 hours. Nothing good could come from stalling the day out.

On the note of that Lowell vote.. I do believe there is still scum clinging onto the embers of that Prince here, and I would be rather shocked to see Mala/Lowell both be town. Why not just go back to Enchant, though?

[Crescent]

Well I mean that's fair, it would at least force that ability out. I'm worried letting him live one night turns into letting him live two nights and letting the WIFOM continue.

Speaking of him shooting, it

really

bothers me that he tried to have his claim directed at someone specific tonight though. It's a 100% chance of meaningful result, and it kinda just completely ignored the whole "scum could save his target" issue. You think someone who's had the role he's claiming for over a month would actually understand it on such a basic level. He doesn't seem to really get how the role he's claiming functions.

[Crescent]

100% chance of no meaningful result what did my phone do to the no I definitely wrote it

[Crescent]

Ok Andante is claiming something interesting here and I think Andante is town.

Not quite sure what she's actually claiming.. But I am willing to leave it at that for one of my strongest town reads.

[Crescent]

If scum roleblocks me, they can't roleblock malcolm, and I can definitively prove tonight whether malcolm is real or not

Whatever your role is they won't need to block Malcolm because he's lying.

..In which case we get no result from him anyway and proceed to murder.

I think I get where this is going.

[Crescent]

look idk, we just need to not lim a role that's literally self confirming tonight. Malcolm either has a maf for us tomorrow or he shot a scummy town. simple as that

Wish it were that simple.

His claim can

never

confirm a scum, even if he's town.

[Crescent]

Andante is known fakeclaimer, so let's throw it as bullshit and get back to killing Prince.

I, myself, more inclined believe claim than not.

VOTE: Enchant

Shits all over Andante and tries to rally it back to Prince, when the only two people still on Prince are the two most inactive players in the game with rapidly diminishing benefit of the doubt and most players are now vocally against his train.

Thank you for volunteering yourself as scum.

I'll trust Andante for a day.

[Crescent]

cause I think enchant always flips red here.. I really do

You just shifted your vote to a guy with less votes than Enchant after saying you strongly think Enchant is scum?

[Crescent]

Malcolm, i suggest shoting someone average-townie.

Because scummy players will be healed to frame them and you.

oh frick, you're right. mafia doctor is gonna fuck with my plan...
so we lim lowell here yes? confirmed no gun

...That's the point that's been made for a while, yes. MT's claim can never confirm a scum even if he's town.

[Crescent]

wait, actually... what was malcolm's full claim?

"Town Loyal Vigilante"

I also wikied it, but nothing showed up for "Loyal" there.

[Crescent]

Oh. I searched the full claimed name. I never searched just the word "Loyal".

[Crescent]

can we just lim the person doing nothing.. like, that's literally where I'm at right now

Mala has less posts than Gamma, and Gamma was in this game for like 2 1/2 days. It's not just Lowell doing "nothing".

[Crescent]

So Mala being a waste of a player slot is normal for her?

[Crescent]

So Mala being a waste of a player slot is normal for her?

viewtopic.php?t=89500&f=3&st=0&sk=t&sd= ... er_sort=Go
town!mala

and she also does nothing as scum, so who knows

I will never understand why people sign up for mafia games they have no intention of playing. All they do is drag the game down for the people who actually want to play.

[Crescent]

wait... what if it's mafia joat... you know? to get away with shooting town, and that's why he hasn't shot yet...

Mafia vigs are illegal in normals.. Wouldn't that also extend to something like a mafia Joat having an extra kill?

That seems strangely arbitrary if it doesn't.

[Crescent]

So Mala being a waste of a player slot is normal for her?

viewtopic.php?t=89500&f=3&st=0&sk=t&sd= ... er_sort=Go
town!mala

and she also does nothing as scum, so who knows

I will never understand why people sign up for mafia games they have no intention of playing. All they do is drag the game down for the people who actually want to play.

mhm same, it's like half this table not wanting to play, so I'd rather not drag this out... its already been an entire month of this game...

Trust me I have a growing list of people and will refuse to join a game that has 3 or more of said people in them.

[Crescent]

I said this back on day 1 but wow do I see so much of myself in Andante.

Anyways this kind of just went in a lot of circles and I'm going to be at work soon. I do want to see what Prince especially has to say about all this, as the guy doesn't even have a post in over 22 hours and what he's got going for him is how bad the two players currently on him look.

I wouldn't have any problem just trusting you for a night and throwing Mala into a volcano at this point and just seeing what happens. Like I said of NM in 2273, votes like that are generally best done on days where you just have no idea wtf to do. It's what we should have done day 2, but Alex and I got greedy and totally messed it up with a late wagon that turned out bad. If it's in MT/Enchant/Mala/Lowell I'm ok with it right now, as there's no way that fourpack is clean.

But... I also don't just want to let Prince glide through the rest of the day without comment on the madness of the last 18 or so hours. I'm not exactly "convinced" he's town, even if I find the way the votes swung suggestive of it.

[Crescent]

And probably the only way I'm voting Prince again is if he tries to idle out the rest of the day.

[Crescent]

What reads? Almost everything Pooky ever posted was fluff.

[Crescent]

That feels like a fair point, though Gibus kinda did similar as Doctor Checker in 2273. He claimed his role without actually clarifying it for like 9 minutes, and basically let Alex do it for him. It's not as pronounced as this looks, though.

Malcolm claims very passively and only when questions gives answers he should've given with the claim in the first place.

[Crescent]

No, it does not. It could mean you were roleblocked, or it could scum saved them. Your claim has no scum-confirming power.

I've really gotta start prepping for work now, but this false narrative that MT can actually confirm someone scum needs to stop. This is the stuff of nightmares.

VOTE: Prince

whatever, I'm ending day on this. I genuinely hate this game.

I'll repeat it 1 more time.

@Malcom you BETTER shoot tonight

I will. If preferred I am happy to go on a consensus town-shot if that works and helps at all to be cooperative.

And here we go again, DESPITE this post.

Speaking of him shooting, it really bothers me that he tried to have his claim directed at someone specific tonight though. It's a 100% chance of meaningful result, and it kinda just completely ignored the whole "scum could save his target" issue. You think someone who's had the role he's claiming for over a month would actually understand it on such a basic level. He doesn't seem to really get how the role he's claiming functions.

I've already pointed out how this is a horrible idea that in no way helps town, and he proposes it again?

I'm going to be so disgusted if MT is town. His play is inexcusable from any town perspective.

[Crescent]

And damnit that quote is missing the "no" that my phone ate for no reason.

But point still stands, he just re-proposed something that's already been shot down once as horrendously anti-town.

[Crescent]

For about the fifth time, scumreads can be wrong, especially D1. I'm not going to apologise for refusing to accidentally vig a doctor or some other important role D1 when they'd have had no chance to claim.

Not going to risk shooting an important role on N1, especially after a scum flip. No way.

I will. If preferred I am happy to go on a consensus town-shot if that works and helps at all to be cooperative.

Sure I'll risk shooting an important role on N3, np.

The problem is this is now the second time he's asked town specifically who to shoot which reads as "make sure I have an excuse that no one dies" as scum, and being offensively clueless at best as town. He still hasn't registered at all that he's nonconfirming if town because scum has doctors.

[Crescent]

UNVOTE: Enchant

I don't feel like leaving my vote hanging while I'm at work and can't guarantee I'll be in good shape to contribute after it.

[Crescent]

Gonna be honest seeing Andante changing votes like every 5 posts is making my head spin. I'm having a slow, mistake filled shift because I burned too much of my limited sleep energy on this earlier so that's fun.

Would vote Mala before Prince at this point in a second. Her only reason to ever vote him to begin with was "Enchant isn't scum". She has no reason to be clinging so hard to it, as she's never actually indicated any belief that he is scum.

But yeah decisions have to be made and I might collapse as soon as I get home.

[Crescent]

That's a very tempting solve, Owen. I'll take back my townread on Mala, at the very least, because I don't think it makes any sense to vote me due to sheeping her townread of Andante (1852), and then when Andante moves somewhere else, instead of following she tells Andante to stay where she was. That's not a town trajectory.

Catching up now.

Where did I tell andante to vote somewhere else?!?

I was GETTING HER TO REVOTE YOU

The point he was making was that you didn't sheep Andante onto Lowell, you nudged her back onto Prince, who you don't actually have a reason to be voting. Andante is kind of totally losing it and is super impressionable right now. I've been there!

Though, Prince kinda isn't correctly pointing out the reason Mala originally voted him to begin with. She voted him strictly as a counter to Enchant (Putting him -1 in the process). As for why she's doubled down on him to the point of asking Andante to come back to him (with zero other content in the vicinity of this post), there's really.. No reason at all that's given for it. It's like she's pushing Prince for the sole purpose of pushing Prince, and it doesn't feel like an attempt to actually vote off scum at all.

[Crescent]

Oh and for the record even if MT is town (he's not, but I digress), there's a sizeable chance we get nowhere anyway. I did some quick mental math that.. No one's really bothered to do on it.

If we vote town here, them even disregarding roleblocker fear, there could potentially be three scum doctors. He gets no result on them, no result on the people they save, and no result if he shoots scum's NK target. He has a mere 4/11 chance of actually producing a result under these circumstances. Someone who doesn't die has only a 50% chance of being scum.

Even if we vote off scum here, say we have two scum doctors remaining... That's still 5 people he won't get a result on, and his chances of getting one are 6/11. Someone who doesn't die still has only a 50% chance of being scum.

It's basically taking a claim that's a coinflip of actually producing a result, that will produce nothing but coinflip results, and acting like it's "easily testable/confirmable". If we let him live today, we pretty much have to also let him live tomorrow, because of how high the chance he produces nothing even if he's town. This basically means we have to leash someone just about everyone thinks is scum until we get tired of him producing no result, as it is perfectly feasible town MT could fail to do so for 2 or 3 consecutive nights depending on our upcoming flips.

That said, I did say I was perfectly alright just throwing Mala into a volcano earlier...

[Crescent]

And honestly, the argument for voting Mala here is actually... Kinda simple. It's like a better version of the argument that should have been used on NM in 2273 on day 2.

We've cycled through a ton of trains in the back half of the day, and pressured a lot of people... While she's sat there and done virtually nothing, We are split in a lot of directions on where to go, lacking any true consensus in the last 24 hours of the day, partially because of noncontributing players like her.

Mala has fairly good scum equity by virtue of doing absolutely nothing since replacing in, until doubling down on a train of someone she has never made anything resembling an argument against for being scum. Scum Mala also reflects poorly on MT and Enchant, who are high on many peoples' scumlists, while it makes Prince more likely to be town.

If Mala is town... We lose nothing, as she's wasting a playerslot and almost certainly had to be dealt with eventually anyway.

I was against this yesterday, but if people want to give MT a day (Personally I think this is a mistake but whatever)... I can't really find any justifiable reason to defend her the way I did yesterday.

[Crescent]

Oh and for the record even if MT is town (he's not, but I digress), there's a sizeable chance we get nowhere anyway. I did some quick mental math that.. No one's really bothered to do on it.

If we vote town here, them even disregarding roleblocker fear, there could potentially be three scum doctors. He gets no result on them, no result on the people they save, and no result if he shoots scum's NK target. He has a mere 4/11 chance of actually producing a result under these circumstances. Someone who doesn't die has only a 50% chance of being scum.

Even if we vote off scum here, say we have two scum doctors remaining... That's still 5 people he won't get a result on, and his chances of getting one are 6/11. Someone who doesn't die still has only a 50% chance of being scum.

It's basically taking a claim that's a coinflip of actually producing a result, that will produce nothing but coinflip results, and acting like it's "easily testable/confirmable". If we let him live today, we pretty much have to also let him live tomorrow, because of how high the chance he produces nothing even if he's town. This basically means we have to leash someone just about everyone thinks is scum until we get tired of him producing no result, as it is perfectly feasible town MT could fail to do so for 2 or 3 consecutive nights depending on our upcoming flips.

That said, I did say I was perfectly alright just throwing Mala into a volcano earlier...

Why on Earth would there be three mafia doctors? A mafia doctor is a counterbalance to a town vigilante. Do we have three vigilantes in this game, none of whom have used their roles at all?

I understand that your concern is that the mafia doctors are going to heal townies to produce fake positives for the Loyal Vigilante. The solution to this is to give

MalcolmTucker

a list of players to shoot and ask him to choose one and not tell which one until after it's done. Yes, it's that easy. There is always a chance of him getting a false positive if the mafia happen to heal that particular (town) player. But, if, let's say, there are six players on that list and we have two mafia doctors (sorry, but I don't believe that there are three mafia doctors in this setup), then there's a 4/6th chance that

MalcolmTucker

gets an accurate result. And that is all, if we assume that the mafia choose this strategy over the risk that there is, for instance, a non-Loyal Town Vigilante who can just shoot and kill one of them.

I think that while your train of thought is both possible to happen and logically sound, contains too many assumptions, and these assumptions ignore optimal strategies in favour of the idea that the mafia are just going to shock and surprise us. It is possible to happen, but leaving a townvig with Cop-like possibilities just to toy with town is so risky. In my experience, it is rare for the mafia to take a suboptimal path to win instead of the easiest one. When I roll scum, my priority is neutralising threats over leaving them be to confuse town.

Someone said like 20 posts into the game that the last time Datisi did a setup like this, scum had three doctors.

[Crescent]

this is the last Datisi Mafia Doctor Game:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=86324


3 Mafia Doctors vs a Town Gunsmith who was informed of the number of guns in the game which lead to us eliminating all our PRs and autolosing hilariously

[Crescent]

Imma sheep tm town read

VOTE: pOP

E-1 btw

This is the post I was referring to. Here she is saying that she was sheeping Andante, her strongest townread. Later she justified it by saying that she also townread Enchant, but that was more about why she didn't want to vote there rather than why she voted me.

Oh.

Oh that's even worse.

[Crescent]

Anyways I had a specific reason I needed to drag myself up until 11 tonight but I'm fading really fast now.

VOTE: Mala

If anyone has an argument for this being a bad vote, I'll read it in the morning. Like, I do think there is a marginally lower chance this is scum than Enchant, but the sheer uselessness of the player carries weight, too.

I would still be ok with anyone on that list of 4, I just really need to get some rest.

[Crescent]

...Why would a rolestopper have anything to do with Malcolm's claim?

Anyways I've been stewing on this the entire night phase because I wrote up a post on this only to find the topic locked when I hit the submit button (You couldn't wait like, two more minutes? Thanks.), but Mala's claim has a contradiction to me. I would like to know why Mala had the original reaction she did to MT's claim, and why it changed to calling him scum. It feels like the latter should've been the initial reaction given what she eventually claimed.

So Mala... With a dead gunsmith, and him essentially claiming vigilante cop, why were you so passive about his claim until you were personally under pressure? What changed to make Malcolm so scummy to you in this timeframe?

Not that I'd advocate killing off an even night cop claim on day 4, but I do want an answers here.

[Crescent]

Right. Well. I'm not sure how nobody decided to check if Mala's claim made any sense, but it doesn't.

But hey if you guys want a flip with zero info go ahead a lim me

That’s just cool

She was at 5 votes when she said this. Her treatment of Enchant also doesn't really match up with someone who got an innocent result on night 2.

I think there's probably scum in that pivot to Malcolm after the claim.

I was like two minutes from it, but no Amazon has to decide to give me this super important survey for me to burn 20 minutes on, and then the topic closes on me when I hit submit. At the end of the day people were hurrying, no one bothered to even give the claim a look over.

I want you to go into more detail about her treatment of Enchant, because it's specifically her treatment of Malcolm I find weird.

[Crescent]

Well, it's not like scum would've ever killed her, though it does interact with her reaction with Malcolm, given she would've been one of his most likely targets if he was town, and her initial reaction towards his claim was passive, before suddenly calling him scummy as hell for seemingly no reason, though I would say she dropped passive defense of Enchant multiple times, and her defense of Andante actually had a reason. If anyone in her ISO looks like someone she may have scanned innocent as a cop, it's [i[clearly[/i] Enchant - From the way she flat out made up a reason to defend him. to the passive defense she later showered him with.


I question everything she did with Malcolm, but Enchant seems straightforward enough.

[Crescent]

There's 3 scum in 11, so we're nowhere near lylo. I have no idea why people keep bringing up lylo when we've never gotten close to it.

And frankly... I'm still 100% ok with Malcolm dying yesterday. That role was a disaster waiting to happen after he misplayed it as badly as humanly possible.

[Crescent]

Also I kinda think Andante softclaimed hoping she'd get shot for it so.... I don't think much of her dying, really. I expected her to.

[Crescent]

My experience on MS so far is that no one has any idea how to actually play power so that checks out.

[Crescent]

Also I kinda think Andante softclaimed hoping she'd get shot for it so.... I don't think much of her dying, really. I expected her to.

I would have shot a cop over a rolestopper. Especially since

Andante

was raging and not scumhunting.

No reason for a scumteam to care enough to shoot an even night cop claim night 3 when the player who made such cop claim is worthless. Andante never actually claimed her role straight up.

And frankly Andante was ridiculously obvious. Mala is still scummy and contributes nothing to the game. If Mala is town, no scumteam in the right mind even considers a shot there last night.

[Crescent]

Basically I'm still specifically on about her behavior towards Malcok because I don't like either of your arguments. As much as I'd just love to policy vote out the worthless player that's not how this works. Can't just rush it.

If she continues to make useless NM-tier statements that avoids answering questions, though, I won't regret just throwing her out of the game no matter what she flips.

Like I said if NM in 2273, this is the kind of player who would be banned where I come from. They have some major issues with sexism, but this is a topic basically everyone there agrees on.

[Crescent]

The place I'm used to playing has major issues with sexism.. But it doesn't hesitate to force replace out people who don't do anything... A rule I happen to agree with.

Oh and I'm willing to bet at least half the game agrees on my logic for why scum would have never considered a shot on you last night if you're town. I'm just the one actually willing to say it.

This is just a fragment of how harsh I eventually was on NM. People who sign up but don't play are an affront to the game.

[Crescent]

Mal

cok

Yeah I have no idea what my phone did to that.

[Crescent]

...Why would a rolestopper have anything to do with Malcolm's claim?

I came here just to explain it.

Andante wanted to rolestop Malcolm, so he can't be roleblocked.

Peace. I sleep

I've just read the wiki on rolestopper because I have never come across it before. Their plan was to target malcolm, so that malcolm would definitely be able to do their thing and so prove malcolms roll.
But what would have happened if no kne died because the doctor protected someone? It wasn't 100% guaranteed was it?

Am I missing something?

Also yeah that's why it didn't really matter. I think she just wanted to die and with the pace of this game I kinda don't blame her.

[Crescent]

MN 2276 had two town vigs.

[Crescent]

Oh and Fire in 2276 I hammered a semi-inactive town who decided to disappear for 40 hours at -1 and then request replacement.

She had a confirmable town role, and I still don't regret hammering before she could be replaced. I'd do it again if the situation repeated itself.

It was either get rid of her or basically lose day 2 and I chose the option I thought was better for the game overall. I'm a firm believer that some town deaths aren't harmful. I don't think MT bring voted off did us any particular damage because it saved us from endless WIFOM.

The only reason hurt town was it got me vigged by a different inactive who suspected me on what was basically "gut" day 1 and never let it go. Basically everyone else in the game townread me.

[Crescent]

Also she never actually claimed. She just sat there with a train for 40 hours and then requested replacement. If she had actually cared enough to at least claim I obviously wouldn't have hammered. We had no idea she was confirmable town until the flip.

My last post in 2276 is a warning that I will immediately next post hammer any player that repeats that situation though.

I also have a warning both in 2273 and 2276 that the next time I have the misfortune of being in a game with NM, I will first post vote him and never remove it until he or I are dead.

I keep my promises <3

[Crescent]

For me to double having 0 problems with Malcolm's death in response to Fire.

I considered leaving him alive a negative regardless of his alignment. It just would've been better if he were scum, obviously.

[Crescent]

Ok Boomer

[Crescent]

I only meant in the context of the game itself.

[Crescent]

Yeah I already said right at the start of the day that I'm not advocating a rush to vote off an even-night cop claim day 4.

And Owen's reaction to MT is pretty much the reaction I would actually expect from a cop claim. He would've had to plan this in advance from well before the time Mala claimed, given he might be the only guy who wanted to murder MT as hard as I did.

[Crescent]

Yep.

Because controlling the narrative is what matters most. Town controlled the narrative in 2272 and won. Scum controlled the narrative in 2273 and in 2276 and won.

As scum I don't aim for power, I aim for people who can control the narrative against me. I probably would've taken out Greeting night 1 as I would've acknowledged him as one of the only legitimate threats to me in the game. Pooky was a nonsense kill as far as I'm concerned.

My last scum game I shot VT over 3 different town power just to remove the player and coasted from there, as I knew nobody left was going to stop me even with their PRs.

I do still stand by Malcolm being an ok voteoff despite the flip and really nothing you can do will change my mentality on that.

If Mala actually is town though it does mean I was probably right about Pronce originally though.

And if he's scum, and Greeting is still alive day 7... etc etc.

Back to work now.

[Crescent]

And yet it seems to have provoked you to post, so I'd call it a success~

[Crescent]

VLA over the weekend.

I was busy yesterday and today especially is going to be worse. Slept really poorly last night which is not helping

[Crescent]

Like everything hurts right now but I exist again yay. I haven't read anything but the most recent page and it already gives me plenty to comment on given the thoughts I currently have.

Also yeah the game is dying and looking at that last posted chart.. Yikes. I feel like Greeting has a point though.. Basically all our biggest arguments are played out and the game has a circular feel. There really hasn't any serious new ground to discuss today.

But really the fact of the matter is if Mala is town, the POE we're operating under this game is simply too small, and thus someone who's been brushed aside has to be scum.

I've already brought up it makes it a fair bit more likely Prince was actually a good train yesterday (I don't like the way he started today either, but after that you have maybe Unsure.. And then you have a giant pile of townread people that

must

contain scum.

So basically, if Mala is town, there must be at least one, if not two, scum inside the common core of Fire's replacement, Gera, Greeting, Owen, Vivax, and myself... But, if Mala is scum, Prince is much more likely to be town. The same scenario still applies unless the other two scum are specifically Enchant and Unsure. The game being dead is a nightmare scenario for reasons above, but I'm also not sure how to fix it.

It's also kind of worrying that Greeting and I have been kinda pointing at each other today as probably the closest this game actually has to leadership. I've put Fire, Gera, and Vivax under virtually no scrutiny since day 1. I've been up his ass since early day 2. If he's town, we're basically living in scum's dream scenario.

I still think chances are decent a cop claim is lying, but voting off Mala today kinda feels like a nope. I think Prince is the opposite alignment of Mala and would kinda rather she be resolved before him... Which pretty much leaves only Unsure and that "town core" that probably has at least one scum in it.

But like if Unsure is voted off today and flips town, all hell effectively breaks loose. We wouldn't even be at lylo, but practically everyone in the game is pulled into the POE. Something is grievously wrong with essentially everyone's perception of the game at this point if he's town. It would be

decisive evidence

that our towncore is functionally broken, and may even contain multiple scum.

One thing I will say is even if Owen is scum, is that Lowell is most likely still town, with how much Owen kept trying to kill him. Lowell is highly likely to be town in any scenario.

Basically I feel like there's only two paths to take here.. Take the "safe" voteoff in Unsure, or basically flip over a table and see what shakes out, if anything. The latter is kind of hard when it's so low energy.

Anyway it's almost 1am and that was way more than I actually expected to phone post from bed . If anyone disagrees with my summation of the current gamestate, give me a reason why.

[Crescent]

Anyway it's almost 1am and that was way more than I actually expected to phone post from bed . If anyone disagrees with my summation of the current gamestate, give me a reason why.

I mostly agree. I do think that Mala is scum, and Enchant probably is too. After the massclaim we can assess who the best elim is. Crescent, Greeting, and Geraint are my strongest townreads now. I doubt UNOwen is scum, and even if he is, Lowell should be town. Fire is probably just town. That leaves Unsure and Vivax.

I'll claim VT now since Mala has already claimed.

Did everyone just forget that Prince already claimed VT yesterday... Including Prince himself?

[Crescent]

VT btw.

Hahahaha, no you aren't.

Full claim: I'm a n2 neapolitan, n3 cop. Unsure was my n2 target and he isn't a VT.

I actually did think from the way you claimed that if you were town you were stronger than what you were claiming (n3 cop was weirdly specific), so this actually checks out for me. I thought you might be an alternating-night cop with a night 1 scan on someone who's since been shot trying to stay alive until day 5 but also wanting it on record that the guy you've been trying to murder is actually town.

And yeah... That means you're claiming an even stronger informative role, but I don't really see any reason not to buy it. I had to actually look up neapolitan because I'd never even heard of it. Where I come from that power doesn't even exist.

[Crescent]

I might have been wrong about

Prince

. This could be the last, missing puzzle after all.

The gamesolve is probably

Unsure

,

Malakittens

,

Prince of Paterson

,

Enchant

. One of them is town, rest are all scum.

Mala/Prince is hard to digest based on like.. Everything Mala did yesterday. She put him -1, she claimed a scan on his biggest counterwagon, and stayed on him basically the rest of the day before claiming and suddenly doing a 180 on Malcolm. She also tried to influence a completely unraveling Andante back into Prince even though she still had no real argument for it. I do think the likelihood of her being scum is pretty high, but her play would have to be seriously bold for Prince to be scum with her. Is she even capable of making such a play as scum? A lot of players really aren't. My bet is still that there's exactly 1 scum between the 2.

If she's town this is what Prince's wagon looked like: Enchant, Lowell, Andante, Vivax, Crescent, Mala. That's a

very

strong wagon in a town Mala scenario, and it has a possibility of being 100% pure. The wagon is a lot more questionable if she's scum, given the votes that bookend it. I would say I still believe that, in the scum scenario, they were hoping for an MT-style hammer on a town member.

[Crescent]

Isn't it obvious?

Monokuma joins your party.

[Crescent]

Excellent timing as I just got home from work. You can thank FK for the ensuing wall for prompting me to make one on my off day and then hammering before I finished.. Also it assumed Owen died last night, not Greeting. Otherwise it's fine.


That's an interesting take from someone I've been alive with for all of 1 game day with but I'll play along why not.

Let's see day 1... I called Vivax town on the first page of the entire game (Notably Gamma in the brief time they were alive in the game also said Vivax was probably town for the same reasons as I did). Then Gera made a post I don't see scum Gera making (and later made a second). Fred got early shade for playing like a douche, then Andante suddenly got a horrible train led by scum Meg. Of any train, that's the one I opposed to most of any in the entire game. When Meg later flipped scum, it practically townlocked Andante. I also prodded DWLee (who is now Mala) for doing virtually nothing.

Meg and Fred were going out of their way to attack the wagons on each other, but Meg kinda just... Totally stopped playing for like 2-3 days. After he sat at -2 for like 30 hours, I said screw it and put him -1 telling him to either post or die. Malcolm then accidentally hammered and day one ended early. Fred and Meg tied to each other very strongly on day 1 to the point where I made it clear Fred would be my #1 scumread on a Meg scumflip. Meg killed momentum on Fred as soon as it started to build, and Fred eventually defended Meg using a single post from days ago after ignoring the train originally. Fred also... Had no apparent scumlist and claimed to townread almost everyone in the game for basically no reason, and just.. Kinda kept lazy spewing nonsense. He voted Bugspray for "not attempting to find the scum"... Which I then directly accused Fred of doing himself when he voted Bugspray to begin with. On day 3 I noted that Prince notably attacked the vote leader on Meg just 9 posts after Meg took the vote lead, then voted Meg just 8 posts after Lowell put another vote on it. I townread Lowell based on my interaction with him at the end of the day, which is something Fire immediately took exception to.

End of day 1/late day 2 I nudged at Unsure because where his vote ended the previous day did not match what he was actually saying (It was Unsure's shaky countersuspicion of me that had Greeting all over him), but Fred was the one I was particularly going after. I also gave reasons to potentially townread 8 people at the start of day 2... Which can technically still all be correct, but it likely contains exactly 1 scum in it. However, the actions of Enchant on Fred's wagon on day 2 made me very paranoid, as everything Enchant did concerning that wagon screamed "Enchant is scum who doesn't want his vote on town Fred at the end of the day", and this more than anything made me question my scumread of Fred - Not Fred's play itself. Enchant unvoted looking like he knew Fred was town, and his reason for unvoting directly contradicted the day 1 train. Because of the way the voting went overall, I started to think Unsure/Fred were probably either scum/scum or town/town. Greeting made me paranoid with his POE (It included someone I had essentially townlocked in Bugspray, and a second person I also thought was town in Lowell), and I made specific note of this later in the day. Multiple people were kinda all-in on Fred for a significant portion of the day... Including Prince, which marked the second straight day that looked bad.

Day 3 was a low-energy mess from the entire game. I wanted Enchant and Prince dead the most, by far. Like half the game got trains at random, until Enchant/Prince both had trains that stuck. Enchant's train (Like many trains before him on day 3, such as Owen's) looked so bad at the time that I essentially wanted nothing to do with it. This is when things started to actually move. Greeting felt like he suddenly went from townreading Enchant, and null reading Prince, to scumreading Enchant, and townreading Prince. The situation made me super paranoid, and I put Prince -2 (I've been openly paranoid of Greeting). I also noted that Prince had been mirroring Owen a lot, in a similar way to how Carcalilly did with DWLee in 2272. This made me think Owen was probably town if Prince was scum. However, when Mala popped in from her inactivity to vote Prince -1, I quickly got off because I trusted her even less. It was then that Andante and I drew attention to the fact that MT had been calling Enchant scum all day, but had flat out ignored ever talking about the train on Enchant. He was even defending Prince at this time, so it was a direct contradiction between his words and actions. This combination of factors made me identify Prince as a likely target for an ML, and I started to scrutinize the circumstances surrounding him further.

Malcolm eventually claimed.. What he claimed, and that he'd both been wasting a strong town role all game, and had also ruined the power it actually had by claiming it in full. I both thought he was probably scum because it would've been the most misplayed town role I've seen in years, and he did not seem to actually understand how his own claim worked. Even as the game walked him throw it, he continued down a line of logic that would do nothing but ruin town. I also felt that even if he was town, we were probably better off getting rid of him and the WIFOM hell that would come from him anyway. Nevertheless, I was persuaded to allow him to live for a day and ended up on Mala, who then claimed even night cop with a scan on Enchant, and then people rushed the hammer on Malcolm without actually thinking it through. I noticed that her claim and her behavior towards Malcolm contradicted, but the topic closed as I was writing the post to call this out, so I pointed it out first post on day 4 instead. Mala also went from pushing on Prince and being passive towards Malcolm to suddenly calling Malcolm super scummy as she claimed, without giving a reason for the change. In slight fairness, Mala was passively defending Enchant all day, so I feel that part of the claim does actually check out. I'm pretty clear that I still think Mala is scum, but I didn't feel like voting off an even night cop claim on day 4.

Shortly before Unsure was exposed as scum, I essentially came to the conclusion where Unsure essentially had to be scum, or our POE was so broken that we might as well throw everything out and restart from scratch. The sole exception was Lowell, who was most likely town in any scenario. The closest thing to an "occam's razor" POE we now have is Unsure+Mala+Enchant. I do not believe Mala and Prince are scum together based on Mala's actions towards him yesterday, but Mala being town also makes Enchant town, which means the paranoia that got me off of Prince is essentially lifted as his entire train is probably clean. If the solve is anything but those three, then someone who's been effectively towncleared must be scum. If Unsure was town, all hell broke loose as there was a chance there were at least 2 people in that pile. Contrary to what Unsure said though, it is not "lazy" to vote someone off just because they're not in your townpile. Games are often won by correctly townclearing people rather than catching people as scum. I've seen two recent examples of scum essentially getting POEd out of the game. "Townhunting" is a viable strategy for town.

And then I find out the person who asked me to do this hammered and locked the topic on me. Seriously that's fucking rude. Summarizing an entire game's worth of play takes time! ...May as well keep writing though.

Looking ahead to day 5 and beyond: Owen is almost certainly going to turn up dead night 4. Greeting looks a lot better on an Unsure scum flip. We now have two flipped scum that gunsmith could've caught, and Owen is even stronger than he originally claimed (Likely going to flip some sort of JOAT?). I don't think Mala's claim fits with what we know of this setup at all, as it feels like we have a lot of potential information already. If Bugspray doesn't randomly claim GS for no reason, or if MT actually uses his role, we could potentially have caught 2-3 scum just by scans alone. Since Godfather doesn't even exist, she's claiming a role that can definitively catch any member of scum, just like Malcolm could've. Owen's reaction to Malcolm simply made more sense than hers, and I think the cop claim probably just came on a whim.

Ultimately we are almost in the exact same boat as yesterday. Yesterday was knock off Unsure or go into our townpile. Today is knock off Mala or go into our townpile. If Mala is scum, tomorrow is knock off Enchant or go into our townpile. If she's town (Ok she's not town but still..)), it's Prince+One previously cleared player, and the game breaks wide open. We of course should wait for her to claim, but I don't want to comment on what she might claim today because I don't want to give scum any ideas.

Also, if Enchant is scum (Which I noted as plausible day 3 with Unsure when bickering with Greeting), we'd be in a situation where Greeting and I were both right on our #1 scumreads and basically just did "Spiderman pointing at Spiderman" with each other and it sounds funny to put it that way.

However, we might not want to take it too easy. Mala being scum is a safe assumption. Enchant being scum is less of a safe assumption, though I would heavily lean that way: Enchant was on the bad Bugspray countertrain day 1. His actions towards the Fred train looked terrible day 2. Interesting thing though: Basically all Mala's actions concerning him on day 3 basically tie her directly to him. Mala also replaced DWLee, who did absolutely nothing in the game but early vote Enchant for almost no reason, but made no actual effort to pursue a train on him. This being a lazy bus vote that makes no attempt to actually get him voted off makes sense from such an inactive player. This means that

both

players who have been in that slot reflect poorly on Enchant. Gera also pointed out just how bad this guy's voting history looked before we even knew MT was town. Unsure's post #1664 is not actually as good a look as it seems at first glance, either. Enchant had just one vote at the time, and 6 people had votes overall. Unsure put Enchant in a 3-way tie for first... at 2 votes, and talked to Greeting about putting him "-1". There was no serious reason given for making this vote, and he was drastically overselling how much impact this vote actually had. The only time Enchant was actually in the vote lead, he was still -3, and this did not last long.

I doubt we have any more information to be getting out of our roles. As we have a clear vote today, our focus should be on what to do

after

today. I don't think spending 4 days talking about how we want to kill Mala today before we hammer her does us any favors. It probably is just Mala and Enchant, but if we don't discuss it now, we just have another person die before we do.

Like, for example, Prince suggested very late yesterday that Mala->Enchant->Unsure->Vivax would be his go to order. Gera also previously suggested he scumread Vivax

more

than Enchant. Owen kinda didn't give us anything, though he was on Enchant day 3 before ending on MT.

...Ah screw it I'll spew some more.

InterestingFiire post shortly before replace:
Post Post #2321 (isolation #200) » Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:11 pm

Random thoughts:
Are scum keeping Crescent and Greeting both alive so they can be at each other throats or is there scum in there and they can't kill the other without it looking sus? What if its both. Scarier thought.

Crescent would have been who i killed days ago just because of the effort alone been putting in the game, but maybe scum see them as a detriment or useful tool.

And Greeting would have been who I killed night 1. Yes, they are leaving us both alive. I shaded him day 2, and scum has been playing this game on the back foot since day 1. This is one of those terrifying scenarios because scum has been shooting obvious town or just outright claimed power every night since night 1, which gives players like both of us reasons to still be alive. Honestly there are many things in this ISO that say town to me. The exchange with Enchant is one of the only bad things here. The constant frustrations seem genuine.

Gera feels completely different to how he felt in 2273... Though he kinda feels different to how he felt in 2272 also. In 2272 he really didn't do anything and in 2273 he had a lot of forced logic. I don't feel like that forced logic is coming from him here. He doesn't look like he's playing afraid, and he doesn't feel like he's tired out like he was in 2273. Gera also came to a conclusion all the way back on post #1678 based on vote history that looks strong now: Vivax-Enchant-Unsure.

For Greeting to be scum means he bussed both day 1 and day 2. It takes someone whos brazen as fuck to do that. Moving on. Wouldn't consider this guy until a possible final 3 at best, and I won't still be alive that long anyway.

Lowell and Owen are virtually locktowned at this point (Owen gets shot anyway). Moving on.

Prince hasn't done much that looks good... But does Mala really hardcore bus this guy like that if Enchant is town? Even if he dies there, she looks better for a while, but Unsure probably gets murdered next for being on Enchant, and then it's just her vs. 10 town players, many of whom still look better than her. I haven't seen anything that suggests she's strong enough to avoid getting voted off for 5 consecutive days under these circumstances.

And that does just leave... The totally OCD Vivax who I townread on page 1 of the entire game. There is one interesting thing in this ISO from yesterday: Vivax shaded me for thinking Andante was a bad train. I thought Andante's train was awful

regardless of her alignment

and correctly guessed her alignment based on seeing a lot of myself in her reaction. Bad trains do occasionally kill scum, and I've already seen it happen once on MS. It doesn't mean the train wasn't terrible - It means it was lucky. Also, I counted. This guy has voted an insane

42[/i[ times in 349 posts (1 per 8.3 posts)

Like, I'm pretty much exactly where Prince said he was. If it's not Enchant, it's... Vivax? It's just Enchant, right? Unless scum felt so desperate that they had Mala superbus Prince with basically no endgame except maybe just hoping Prince didn't die from -1 there.

Honestly who gets what role is often super influential in games. VT is the best role in the game. I'm assuming Greeting is a VT like I am, and when the strongest players get VT, it basically turns them into de facto power roles. I've seen games where scum just get destroyed based on the layout of the roles. Also, this is my 5th game on MS, and my 5th VT, it has been a glorious start~


You guys can blame FK for this. Half the wall was written before I knew the day was even over... And then I just kept going.. And going. I was off Monday and then the day was over almost as soon as I woke up.

tl;dr version

Mala is functionally confirmed scum (We've now had two roles that GS could have caught flip+MT+Owen that could outright catch any scum, possibly twice over. The behavior of both Mala

and

DWLee reflects badly on Enchant, as well as... Basically his vote pattern virtually all game (Textbook scum movements towards Fred on day 2). If it's somehow not those two, it's... Like.. Maybe Vivax or something? My TR of Fire/Gera/Greeting are stronger than my TR of Vivax.

Oh and with Owen not dying this technically changes a bit, but it's still impossible for both Mala and Owen to be town anyway. It's just too much.

[Crescent]

Also I have no idea why there are italics all over the bottom half of that wall. I seriously messed up some formatting in there apparently weeee

I kinda expected day to be up before I was done with work so I could just threaten you with this giant mass of text before actually posting it.

Kekeke text rush.

[Crescent]

FK got me writing and so rudely interrupted me before I could post it... So I kinda just kept going for like, the next 2-3 hours. Blame them <3

Frankly though... I think spending today discussing Mala is a waste of time, and I would much rather draw focus onto discussing what we do

tomorrow

and beyond. So when I got into analyzing things and it became basically confirmed she was scum I kinda just went and summarized the game as a whole on top of summarizing my own play.

[Crescent]

Also I have a heavily purring cat all over me and she's kinda starting to impede my ability to type

<3 kitty.

[Crescent]

If you think Enchant is town, then quick voting Mala without giving a single alternative option to Enchant is exactly the last thing you want to be doing today.

[Crescent]

Uh yes. yes it is. Lowell was towncleared by Owen. It is functionally impossible for Lowell to be scum unless Owen is scum.

[Crescent]

I mean it is true that Mala's behavior with Prince is.. Like the one thing he actually has going for him. Scum is totally screwed if he's scum and gets hammered there, though I would say my unvote in that situation was a predictable outcome.. Assuming I showed up in time for that to matter.

I mean, it's possible it was just a desperate scumplay to at least try to get someone in the town pile. I just don't think that would've actually worked for a poorly placed -1 vote.

[Crescent]

Honestly when I think about it I'd still vote him over at least most of the towncore without hesitation. I have no interest in voting for FK, Gera, Lowell, or Owen at all. Vivax hasn't ever actually felt like scum to me, my TR there just isn't as strong as the other guys, and I've built a pretty good case against Prince over the course of this game.

It's kinda interesting that tomorrow is going to basically be where day 3 was with Enchant and Prince.

[Crescent]

It really threw me off at the time how Greeting basically basically did such a U Turn, but you do bring up a good point. Was Prince actually in legitimate danger of a hammer?

Like MT wasn't on anyone, but he wasn't going to do it. He was defending him.

[Crescent]

So Mala chooses to die giving us nothing to WIFOM after her death ok then.

"I chose the guy scum shot who had been trying to vote off Unsure since day 2" Haha no.

[Crescent]

I'm going to scan that timeframe again when I have the time to give it a dive later. I was distracted by paranoia and I'm wondering if I ever gave it a proper amount of scrutiny. Owen may actually be right that the chance of a hammer there was low. I was too focused on Greeting at the time.

For now, dinner~

[Crescent]

Objective analysis I've totally overlooked actually doing! Yay!

Prince of Paterson [6]: Enchant, Lowell, Andante, Vivax, Crescent, Malakittens
Enchant [4]: Prince of Paterson, Unsure, Greeting, UNOwen
Vivax [1]: geraintm
Malakittens [1]: Firebringer

not voting [1]: MalcolmTucker

Starting from the top:

Unsure was scum, Greeting and Owen were both defending Prince at the time.
Gera had a list of 3 potential scum, and

Enchant

was there, but not Prince.
Prince

is

in Fire's pool, but so is Mala (His most recent vote). This doesn't feel like it would be a characteristic time for Fire to hammer. Fire also never once at any point in this game actually voted Prince.
MT was defending Prince.

Owen is correct in that Prince was under effectively no serious threat of hammer here. It just looked on the surface like he was, and I didn't dig deeper like I should've. All but one person not on him was either defending him, or flipped scum. So yeah, I take it back. I could see this being a calculated gamble trying to desperately make one of them look better with none of them in our towncore.

[Crescent]

"I scanned the guy who voted off scum day 1 and tried to vote off another scum day 2 until he finally did it day 4 and then got shot for it. I have nothing to add."

"Oh shit my previous bus on my scummate is being exposed quick let's bus him again and lament that I should've scanned him instead."


I mean that's basically how I am reading the timing of Mala's vote there.

[Crescent]

Uh.

Unsure was not outed as scum until several hours

after

that post.

[Crescent]

I literally wrote in that post "Before Unsure was outed as scum, I brought the point up that we were probably fucked if he was town" when giving FK the summary of my play that they asked me to give them.

Nowhere in that post do I ever insinuate Unsure is town... And why would I? He was confirmed scum. The only post I insinuated he could be town happened about 4 hours before Unsure was outed. I'm not just going to ignore it in giving a summary of my play just because it's no longer relevant.

[Crescent]

Of course I do. I'm like that. I also just rechecked it again.

And you're just... Totally making up a narrative that doesn't exist. The words "If Unsure is town"

never even appear in this post

The words "If Unsure was town" appear

exactly once[/i[.

Like to sum this up: You spewed a blatant falsehood, then accused

me

of not caring.

[Crescent]

Wow I totally botched my formatting again.

[Crescent]

So basically... The reason you are now trying to call me scum doesn't exist, has been proven not to exist, and your response is effectively "yeah w/e".

[Crescent]

I do find it super interesting that this is basically the first time Enchant has really ever gone on the offensive all game, and he is sticking to it despite his reason for it being instantly destroyed.

The "line" in question was from a summation of the post I made just 10 hours previously. It is the only reason it exists, and it absolutely belongs there because it is in fact something notable that I said in the game. It's a single line that isn't out of place at all in a wall of paragraphs. This is being used to call me scum and to accuse me of "not caring about the game". If I don't care about the game, why the hell am I spending 2 hours writing a wall to begin with? It's an openly contradictory stance to take, especially since I knew what he accused me of writing most certainly never appeared in that post, which makes all my subsequent responses to him make total sense and contains no grounds for such an accusation.

So essentially, he's accusing me of being scum without any basis, and accusing me of not caring about the game without any basis, and he's clinging onto both.

I take that second accusation personally though - No one overall has put more effort into this game than I have.

[Crescent]

What's also interesting is that Prince's immediate response was to say he agreed with almost everything I wrote. It's kinda stark just how different these reactions were.

[Crescent]

What's also interesting is that Prince's immediate response was to say he agreed with almost everything I wrote. It's kinda stark just how different these reactions were.

Not very surprising, I would expect, since you mentioned my previous stance in the post and essentially said that you agreed with it, with the caveat that I could be scum instead.

Also, Mala voting me after you and Owen express suspicion of me seems to me like it is clearly trying to create exactly the reading of it that you had. She knows she's the elimination today.

Oh I know. I wasn't particularly sure about it when I said it and kinda wanted to see if Mala would do anything else. In any case, Enchant basically just inventing an argument out of nothing to accuse me of both being scum and not caring about the game and it feels super desperate how he clings to it. It's like he tried to both assassinate my alignment and my character at the same time for effectively no reason.

Like, frankly I get thinking I could be scum. I'm the post leader and have had tons of exposure all game. My vote on Meg was relatively inconsequential day 1, even if I looked good in making it. I am the primary reason Fred was voted off day 2. I am a major reason MT was voted off day 3 (Though I believe it was a good kill regardless, and at least I got caused Mala to effectively claim scum in the process, I guess?). What he's spewing is not any actual reason to call me scum. It's a single NAI line from a massive post that says nothing. The thing that really sticks out though is that there is absolutely no basis on which to ever accuse me of not caring about the game. That especially feels like a blatant attempt to devalue me when it's pretty obvious how invested I am.

Further, I had already pondered if Greeting's kill was scum attempting to make me look bad (I almost said this earlier, but I didn't want to reveal this thought too soon), and here comes Enchant on the offensive against someone for the first time in the entire game.

[Crescent]

If scum had any fear of a protective role, they don't shoot Gamma night 2, as that was the most obvious kill in the world. Greeting was pretty certain town after Unsure's flip, and one of the strongest players in the game. Honestly it wasn't a bad kill, I just didn't expect it given their previous three.

Anyways, after that frankly embarrassing attempt to discredit me as "shitposting scum" by Enchant, I'm still pretty sure the last one is him.

[Crescent]

On a side note Lowell given you are essentially confirmed town at this point you don't technically have any need to claim at all, and you certainly shouldn't claim before everyone else in the game has anyway.

[Crescent]

Why was someone else -1 when we have a literal confirmed scum in the game?

*Looks at last two votes on Prince*

"Oh". Like, I actually tensed up when I saw not-Mala at -1.

[Crescent]

Replaced Fire who was one of my strongest town reads based on play don't even try to vote them off it won't go well for you.

Anyways FK the problem I have here is I've scumread both of these guys for a long time yet it's become apparent only one can be scum. Like, Prince was in my shortlist of who to kill all the way at the start of day 2.

[Crescent]

Because MT avoided your train like the plague despite calling you scum all day and multiple people noticed it. It's easily the scummiest thing in his entire ISO that he defended your counterwagon but ignored your wagon outright.

Then he claimed and was either scum or a role town was better off never seeing be used. It still feel it was a win/win proposition to vote him off.

At least we got Mala claiming scum out of it in the end, though. I'll take that tradeoff~

[Crescent]

I think that what happened here is that you lost confidence in your ability to read the game. I think Greeting played really well up to this point and then started playing poorly and it surprised you and you second guessed yourself.

Also this is possible. For a while there I was completely thrown off by the massive swing in his play and became focused on trying to read why it was even a thing to begin with. Like, the point Owen made on Prince today only required like 4 minutes of research to corroborate. There was definitely a section of day 3 where I was blind spotting parts of the game.

Honestly what I really need right now like.. 3 weeks just not playing mafia though. This is my 5th game in 3 months. On another note, I've been alive going to day 6 in.. One game, ever, and it was like 6 1/2 years ago. It ended day 10!

[Crescent]

It's funny to see Enchant going all in on me without any actual argument for it. It reminds me of 2273 Corwin, which may be a good thing? On day 3 of that game, I dismantled every argument Corwin ever made for calling me scum, and his response was "yeah w/e". He never attempted to make another argument for calling me scum after this point, but kept blindly parroting himself that I was. Enchant is now doing the same thing. There's no earnest attempt to build an case or to actually convince anyone else

In both cases, the player invented reasons to scumread me, saw those reasons get crushed, and didn't care. What's interesting to note is that Corwin was

town

in 2273 when he acted like this.

[Crescent]

I think that what happened here is that you lost confidence in your ability to read the game. I think Greeting played really well up to this point and then started playing poorly and it surprised you and you second guessed yourself.

Also this is possible. For a while there I was completely thrown off by the massive swing in his play and became focused on trying to read why it was even a thing to begin with. Like, the point Owen made on Prince today only required like 4 minutes of research to corroborate. There was definitely a section of day 3 where I was blind spotting parts of the game.

Honestly what I really need right now like.. 3 weeks just not playing mafia though.

This is my 5th game in 3 months. On another note, I've been alive going to day 6 in.. One game, ever, and it was like 6 1/2 years ago. It ended day 10!

This is very much a mood. Can't be on insane output amounts 100% of the time. Or god beware just make right guesses, how is one supposed to be able to roll red like that?

Facts about mafia: You're wrong a lot more often than you're right. You often circle around the truth and it's rarely easy even when it feels like it is. Once you start playing afraid to be wrong, you've pretty much already lost. You also need to balance out your time, which is why you can't rush days like this in an hour, but can't let them last too long, either

Anyways what's funny about that comparison I just made is you and Gera were both there in 2273 and I want to see if it's giving you the same vibes as day 3 Corwin.

[Crescent]

So I was sitting there at lunch and something just dawned on me.

Enchant is calling Mala and I scum.. So why is he voting Prince?

[Crescent]

Okay, having read Crescent's post, I mostly agree with the conclusions. I think there's not really any way from my perspective that Mala isn't scum. I think that Enchant is most likely the partner. Mala obviously should be flipped first. If it isn't Enchant, we'll be at 5p with 1 scum remaining. I think flipping Vivax and Firebringer/Frogsterking wins the game in that situation.

If somehow Mala is town, she should claim her result now, and it makes it possible that Owen is scum. I strongly doubt that to be the case, however.

It's suspicious to me that Prince already has an idea for what to do if it gets to a 3 player endgame. Especially that he wouldn't be worried about geraintm at that point.

I townread geraintm too, but if this game is still ongoing when there are even five players left and I'm still alive I'd definitely want to reevaluate to make sure on that read.

I've already thought about wtf to do if I find myself in various F3 scenarios but that's just how I am. It is kinda interesting that he seems to be assuming what F5/F3 would look like.

[Crescent]

If Mala even had any credibility left to begin with, it was gone the moment she claimed to scan Greeting. I'm not even bothering to humor "if Mala is town" scenarios.

I'd actually go as far as to say the most obvious scan in the game would have been me. My alignment being hard confirmed would be game shattering at this point. I mean I'd still kill her anyway because she's still scum but it would at least have been a believable target.

[Crescent]

Oh there was a hammer. Probably a good time for it, as I don't know if there was anything more to gain out of the day. I would say I'm mostly locked in on like, everything now. I will say I have one person I'm likely never voting off over anyone, but I'm not telling you who~

[Crescent]

(I will say it's someone other than literal confirmed town Lowell, if people want to be nitpicky)

[Crescent]

Ok I'm about to head to work in the next 10 minutes but the last scum is most likely Prince and 2380 is why. FK and I have made points about this guy that intersect: My feeling that he's been shadowing Owen for content (something I've already seen scum do in a game on MS), and his feeling that he hasn't felt genuine in his posts. I also had this guy both on day 2 and day 3.

Anyway it's almost 1am and that was way more than I actually expected to phone post from bed . If anyone disagrees with my summation of the current gamestate, give me a reason why.

I mostly agree. I do think that Mala is scum, and Enchant probably is too. After the massclaim we can assess who the best elim is. Crescent, Greeting, and Geraint are my strongest townreads now. I doubt UNOwen is scum, and even if he is, Lowell should be town. Fire is probably just town. That leaves Unsure and Vivax.

I'll claim VT now since Mala has already claimed.

Did everyone just forget that Prince already claimed VT yesterday... Including Prince himself?

This is as not-genuine as it gets and I already called him out on it. It also lends credence to Owen's assertion that day 3 may have simply been a setup because they knew he wasn't going to be hammered. If the claim was made inorganically, it explains why he forgot he made it

Also snap reaction is that Lowell suggested a track on Prince last night, but it's almost certainly irrelevant, as Mala claimed to target the guy who died (Thanks again helping us, Mala!), meaning in all likelihood Mala sent the kill.

VOTE: Prince

Let's end this.

[Crescent]

Er, not last night, but the previous night. The night Mala claimed to visit the guy who died, because she's the one who shots him.

I'm rushing yay

[Crescent]

I'll be able to check in in around 3 1/2 hours but I do think the game ends today.

Enchant fakespewed a lot yesterday, but it was probably just him being a troll and ultimately doesn't add to his case.

[Crescent]

Oh and the person I was implying yesterday i wouldn't vote wasn't Owen and after another scanner flip he should full claim ok off I go bye

[Crescent]

I need this game to be over so my brain can heal, I've never in my 7 1/2 years of mafia seen a member of town forget that they claimed... And of course it fit every argument that existed against the guy. Yay I got cheeky. I'm pretty much out of mental power to give. 5 games in a short span with the last one going to day 7 kinda has me shorted out.

Anyways, I guess like follow Greeting and Prince and kill Enchant, or just kill me and then follow all three of us (and Fred... And Malcolm...) and kill Enchant, Do I want to be that lazy? I don't know. I am a bit paranoid about one of you other three for reasons that kind of aren't your fault, and I do have one of you other three effectively townlocked for a black magic sort of reason that I probably shouldn't have and only hinted at because I was that sure the game was going to end with Prince (Seriously who the hell forgets that they already claimed under pressure? I was planning to first post blast that guy before we even flipped Mala, and I didn't even write up anything beforehand because I wanted to quote that post properly. Last time I first post nuked someone like that it was day 4 and they actually were as obviously the last scum as they looked.)

The question I've been asking myself the entire night phase is do I actually elaborate on that townlock or do I just roll over and die on it. Seriously though Enchant cannot be allowed to live in endgame even if I die here. There's way too many town bodies (Fred, MT, Greeting, Prince, and potentially myself) that wanted this guy dead for at least an entire day, if not longer. This was ignored in 2273 when like half the dead town all wanted scum Gera dead.

I don't really know what else I have to say. I don't know if I have any more actual arguments left in me to give this game other than "I've given multiple arguments in the past against this guy." and "Follow the trail of bodies.". I know who I'd go for after Enchant, but I don't expect to survive either today's vote or tomorrow's vote to actually do it sooooo kinda moot.

I'm both sleepy and restless. Yay. Maybe I can find someone to pet me.


Oh I do have one. I reread Day 3's VCA. It's interesting.

Prince of Paterson [6]:

Enchant

, Lowell, Andante, Vivax, Crescent,

Mala

Enchant [4]: Prince of Paterson,

Unsure

, Greeting, UNOwen

Turns to:

MalcolmTucker [6]: Andante, Vivax,

Enchant

,

Unsure

, UNOwen, geraintm
Enchant [3]: Prince of Paterson, Greeting, MalcolmTucker
Prince of Paterson [2]: Lowell,

Malakittens

Turns to:

MalcolmTucker [5]:

Unsure

, UNOwen, geraintm, Vivax,

Malakittens

Malakittens [4]: Firebringer, Prince of Paterson, Greeting, Crescent
Prince of Paterson [2]: Lowell, Andante
Enchant [1]: MalcolmTucker

not voting [1]:

Enchant

Turns to:

MalcolmTucker [7]: UNOwen, geraintm,

Malakittens

, Vivax,

Unsure

,

Enchant

, Firebringer [HAMMER]
Malakittens [3]: Prince of Paterson, Greeting, Crescent
Prince of Paterson [2]: Lowell, Andante
Enchant [1]: MalcolmTucker


Mala's train is

always

pure. Enchant's train is always pure with the exception of Unsure, who voted Enchant claiming to want to put him "-1"... When he tied him for the lead with

two

votes.

MT's train has scum ALL OVER IT

. Seriously, the only person currently alive who isn't on that train is... Me, as I was asleep on Mala. All three scum are guaranteed on that train. A rush of town voted Mala to force her to claim, then a rush of people hammered MT at lightspeed (with some help from Fire..) before Mala's claim could be scrutinized... Something myself, Greeting, and Prince ALL did with our first post the next day. I was minutes away from scrutinizing it before MT's flip.

And there we go, a cohesive argument of day 3's VCA. Do not let Enchant survive this game, please.

[Crescent]

On a side note... Both Gera and Vivax's vote patterns on day 3 are actually just as bad.. Especially now with Vivax being on Prince day 5 over Mala,.. But the voting history of Vivax day 1 and day 2 voting history are actually pretty damn good (He was on FP/Unsure and on Mala early), as horrid as his days 3-5 were. I do notice some more interesting things though.

Prince of Paterson [4]: Vivax, Malakittens, Frogsterking, Enchant
Malakittens [2]: UNOwen, geraintm

Gera is probably town for this. Either both scum are on Prince or town played day 5 like total trash. Mala was virtually confirmed scum.

Also, either one of those two to be scum means scum had all 3 members in the first 5 votes on MT, and this would've been before Mala was under any serious danger. Do all 3 scum really just hard sell out like that? The Vivax/Unsure/Mala, Gera/Unsure/Mala, and Enchant/Unsure/Mala, and Fire/Unsure/Mala [i[never appear on the same train[/i] outside of Malcolm. Again, Gera is the one out of the 4 of them that was Malcolm

before

Mala's claim. Vivax and Unsure unvoted at some point, and then Vivax/Enchant/Unsure/Fire immediately voted following Mala's claim. Gera's either town, or he's played a really strong scumgame. No way around it.

Oh and there's more.

Unsure [2]: Greeting, Lowell
Malakittens [2]: Unsure, Enchant
Prince of Paterson [1]: Vivax

not voting [6]: Firebringer, Malakittens, Crescent, geraintm, UNOwen, Prince of Paterson

Myself, Greeting, and Prince all immediately agree that Mala is probably scum, but agree to give her a day because of her claim. Look who's on her.

[Crescent]

Good writeup, shouldn't even assume you are yeetable for it, why?
Question is if you'd rather presume Gera or Enchant

Because paranoia of me should be at maximum at this point and for good reason. I'm planning as if I've only got one shot.

[Crescent]

Way I see it purely from votes is that Gera looks worse
The Ench unvote gives him some cred here

Gera has the most likely to be town vote on Malcolm of the four of you, and was actually voting the confirmed scum day 5 when the rest of you weren't. The vote on you (if you're town) does look bad for how long he clung onto it uselessly, I will give that much. Gera in 2273 locked a vote on me early on day 1 and basically just refused to ever move it.

He's had 1 post in the last two days because we keep hammering so fast that it does worry me a bit that we basically have no actually heard from this guy in a week.

[Crescent]

Huh. Gera actually.. Barely even has a vote pattern at all. Very early vote on Lowell, Very early vote on Fred, mid vote on Meg, unvote when Meg goes -1.

Onto Vivax, then MT. Only votes Unsure and Mala when they're confirmed scum.

Really thought this guy had placed more votes.

I will say though, it's hard for me to see scum selling out on Malcolm so hard when Prince OR Enchant would've been viable alternative options at that point in time. I also have to ask myself, does scum Gera, who is adverse to calling attention to himself, actually make

this

vote?

VOTE: Malcolm
i am trusting others about the value of this elimination. i know i hate others sheeping other votes, so call me out on that but this is one of those weird times where i am out of my depth and acknowledge that but trust in the hive mind

[Crescent]

Ok really I have no idea why you'd think it'd be night by now after the superduperobviousscumplayer flipped town yesterday. I expected to peek in on break and see the game actually be over. I added some panache... Just because, really.

Like the guy was dead in under an hour because everyone's argument intersected into this giant ball of "this guy is obvious scum kill it immediately".

But today? Yeah this isn't that day.

[Crescent]

Oh wait that was an old Gera post not a new Gera post gg me.

[Crescent]

Oh that reminds me. Random Fire posts of note as I skim this ISO: Says Meg's vote on FP looks like a bus in #804.

Tried to murder Mala day 2 (And the primary people who got in the way were Owen and especially

me

Hated MT's train and voted Unsure


And then I found this bombshell.

Okay here is my general vibe/feelings that might not be useful at all.
enchant has been like begging to get yeeted. Basically spitting in all our faces as we try to apply any pressure. I don't like the attitude but this is so brazen for scum to do that im not on board with it. Which maybe enchant has picked up and been utilizing. I also get feeling scum are reluctant to vote or push enchant because low hanging fruit and don't want to be the first to go there. So if voted its the later votes where they feel comfortable that they wont be called out on it.

Unown. Is one i haven't had a lot of opinions on but i get the sense of votes placed and attitude around the slot that scum are angling/want this as mislim. I am not certain who because like andante is a top townread for me. I should be able to point out specific people who i think are trying to manufacture a push there but it just felt off from the few votes and mentions of unown from others. Maybe im seeing nothing I just don't know and i haven't given this slot much individual attention all game.

Lots of my townish reads have been getting firmer in there position which is the only good thing about this game day.
gera , vivax, greeting, crescent
lowell has gotten weaker due to like not doing anything but complain. Needs to do shit.


So my yeet pool right now is sitting with:
Unsure, Malakittens, Prince

Then he tries to murder Mala again as soon as she's brought up as a viable option. Top two scum are confirmed scum.

Combine that with genuine frustrations and the like and this ISO just isn't scum.

But I did notice it is someone who thought

everyone currently alive except for Enchant

is town.... At the time, at least.

But then very shortly after he says that Mala is defending Enchant because she knows he's town, but he doesn't stay around long enough on day 4 to actually make any sort of further comment on this once it's clear Mala is scum.

GUYS
WHY IS ENCHANT SCUM

SRSLY

WHY IS ENCHANT TOWN
i can do this too.

here are some points for at least anti town play:
> is doing no scumhunting in the game
> has no reasons for votes and even explains doesn't remember why made any of them
> actively encourages wagon on self with attitude
> looked like scumhunting day 1 or at least was forming reads then dropped off completely after a scum lim. Why dismotivated now?

So....again. Why is enchant town?
Ive given reasons that it might just be too brazen to be scum. I just don't see any town mindset beyond "fuck you town i do what i want" which i can relate to sometimes as town but if this is all we are going to hold up as reason for town its not really great standing.

Mala's consistently bad responses to this made Fire townread Enchant.


So actually in the end it kinda looks like.. He townread EVERY PERSON ALIVE. Three based on their own play, and one based on Mala's play.



This still doesn't feel like a scum ISO at all though.

I will sheep Crescent's Firebringer read until a certain point in the game.

And you can't read me because???

Oh ok yeah he's town as if we needed any more evidence of that.