Large Normal 241: Random Pictures and Other Stuff | Endgame

[Something_Smart]

all my scumreads keep pushing each other...

they're probably all town then

[Something_Smart]

Anyone have any particular parts of the game they think I should read? I'll probably do spot reads at random places, but I don't think I'd get much from reading everything.

[Something_Smart]

The dogpiling jokes aside I will give something_smart a chance to get involved in the game I suppose.

Appreciate it, I'll see what I can do.

I'll do some more reading tomorrow, with the flips in mind.

[Something_Smart]

I think Shea's entrance is towny but it's also the easiest type of post to make replacing a scum slot in night phase

like that's the exact type of post I've made multiple times as scum who wants to impress

I think my read is overall net positive because of the way Shea just sorta dumped his thoughts and then tried to reset and get into live vibing mode. I think scum in that situation is more likely to cling to their catchup wall post and stick to a direction from there if that makes any sense. Shea is a little more all over the place

yeah I think I agree with basically all of this.

[Something_Smart]

A post like 2328 always makes me think of the "vote town, bus buddy" strat.

My intuition is that an experienced player like VPB would be aware of this trope and wouldn't be inclined to go for it as a direct response to being told to vote a buddy.

Then again, if he wasn't set up to townread buddy-Gamma and he felt it wasn't strategically sound to bus there, I'm not sure what else he could have done.

[Something_Smart]

And I think the subsequent stuff is also not a trajectory I would expect if Gamma were a buddy. I think he'd be more likely to already have a stance on Gamma in mind?

[Something_Smart]

Bold of you to assume there's only one vig.

[Something_Smart]

Ah yes, that's the GL I remember.

[Something_Smart]

i dont like lions but i like something_smsrt rn!!

on my own merits or on firebringer's?

[Something_Smart]

self-meta is something i do as scum

the difference is, i lie when i do it as scum ᕕ( ᐛ )ᕗ

the chad move is to just tell the truth and hope nobody realizes that it applies to your current game.

sidenote I think your self-meta is +town, which probably means that it isn't.

[Something_Smart]

s_s is a wolf by virtue of s_s’s law (if he replaces into a game he is evil)

Yeah I really expected to wake up to a red PM ngl. But it did not happen this time

[Something_Smart]

s_s, give me three of your strongest reads in either direction

gamma town dann town shea town. based on some other people's stated reads these seem to be

very

out of touch, but that's hardly surprising. (then again, I think disagreeing with Frogster makes me more likely to be in touch than out of touch.)

[Something_Smart]

why

because it makes sense and there is a nonzero chance it's true

[Something_Smart]

Shea 2764, Gamma 2796, Dann there was something I saw during the night phase, I don't recall exactly. I can go look.

[Something_Smart]

I guess it was him not liking Frogster's RQS. The natural response to me is to assume he always does that, but I think it's even easier to make that assumption if Dann is scum and Frogster is town. If Frogster is scum, I don't think this tell holds weight, but honestly if Frogster is scum I'll be relieved.

[Something_Smart]

honestly i feel like i should have died last night and the fact im still alive makes me think i have townread scum

Because you're a shining beacon of towniness, or because you made a claim I didn't see?

[Something_Smart]

Eh, fuck it VOTE: thestatusquo

Game isn't going anywhere until you flip me so might as well just do it. It's distracting the game too much.

I'll continue to be here and post thoughts.

[Something_Smart]

Don't do that. As scum I constantly angle around "there's no way townie X gets out of being eliminated here" and I constantly get surprised by it. And I love it when townies do this because a lot of the time the town will just shrug their shoulders and go along with it.

Pedit: @shea

[Something_Smart]

No one is interacting with what I'm saying or taking me seriously so if the way I have to get my reads actually considered is to be elimmed then thats what I'll do.

I doubt anyone is going to consider your reads very heavily if you get elimmed, especially if you go out doing this.

The exception maybe is if you start yelling "AFTER I DIE KILL X". But if you want to do that, at least try to push through X today and force a 1v1.

[Something_Smart]

i know i said how s_s prob not paired with vpb, but the more i look at it the more i hate the fact that he was not posting and then when tsq was self voting he jumped in the thread like "haha don't self vote"

ik this isn't exactly completely out of character for s_s but i still dislike it

that is not only not out of character it is 110% in character for me

[Something_Smart]

making reads is hard. telling people not to do dumb things is much easier

[Something_Smart]

s_s can you blease give me some scumreads or some opinions on ausuka's case on me or something idk

Ausuka's case is towny and makes sense, but I'm not going to support killing you on D2 of a large without a really compelling reason.

[Something_Smart]

why not

I didn't have an immediate answer to this. But I'm pretty sure the answer is that you have a rare combination of motivation and open-mindedness that makes you valuable lategame if town. And I'm not inordinately scared of your scumgame-- it's good, but not something a competent town can't handle especially if we can take down your buddies first.

[Something_Smart]

Counterpoint: no scumteam makes a kill to protect me after I rep in. Especially if I'm repping into a suspicious slot (which seems to be the case).

[Something_Smart]

Well, also Ari is just scary, and idk how many people had VPB on their radar, but it seems reasonable that she was perceived as one of the biggest threats to him.

[Something_Smart]

that said SS you should start doing things.

I'm willing. Any recommendations?

I am pretty busy today. Unsure about tomorrow.

[Something_Smart]

do some isos. relly+tsq, marci, gamma

Ugh, I hate ISOs without context. But sure, I will look at those and report my thoughts.

[Something_Smart]

I'm gonna read the whole game except for your posts

[Something_Smart]

wow can't believe Datisi is the planned D1 bus for once

I am having a hard time parsing this post. But if it's implying that VPB is bussing Datisi then I think it's +town for Shea?

[Something_Smart]

I had a pretty busy weekend (I actually streamed on twitch for the first time ever!) and I usually have plenty of down time at work to read stuff. Already planning to look at the ISOs Nero suggested, but if there's anything anyone wants to talk to me about, tomorrow's a good time.

[Something_Smart]

Interesting theory about scum avoiding my wagon. I can try to do some analysis from my POV to see if I think that's happening, and why.

[Something_Smart]

do you have any SRs you feel are better than random?
notably, your strongest TRs are also the main targets that have come up today I feel.

Meh, probably not. I'm aware that my townreads are many of the main targets; I alluded to this being because I was out of touch with the game. Though I'm not convinced that makes my reads worse.

[Something_Smart]

however I'd also like to see where some of the bad vote slots (obscure, DV, S_S, marci, xofelf replacement) go while the wagons are still fairly tied up

Serious question, but you don't have to answer: what vote from me would make you townread me the most/scumread me the least?

[Something_Smart]

how is that +town for his slot?

It seems like a really weird joke to make offhand to a buddy

[Something_Smart]

this is a weird point to make

It is. I was going to chalk it up to him being new, but looking at his profile I guess he isn't? But he also probably isn't that familiar with Ari, or he probably would have recognized that she is often seen as a threat.

Do you think it reads like a premeditated argument?

[Something_Smart]

this is an alt (if the whole "pretending to be like skitter" thing was not a tip off, although i'm not doing that as much now)

I did assume that, but only by clicking on your profile and reading your sig.

I can easily see scum being afraid of Ari becoming more accurate, or VPB being afraid of Ari laser-focusing on him, or scum feeling in a good spot and wanting to kill a consensus town player (assuming that she was), or some combination of the three.

[Something_Smart]

what I'm looking for mainly is some type of commitment to a wagon that you think has a chance of happening

whether that's obscure, TSQ, or somebody else specifically is less material to whether I understand who you think is the best flip for the game and why, and whether you're taking action to make that happen

I know you indicated a townread on Shea, so for me it's like - would you vote obscure? Why or why not? If not, why are you seemingly ok with him being at risk of lim and not pushing any alternatives that you think are better?

in a realistic sense voting obscure and then obscure flipping red would go a decent way towards weakening my scumread. I just won't have any reason to townread you until I can start to believe that you are trying to eliminate mafia

Certainly in some cases, I could demonstrate commitment by remaining flexible, no? I think I'm fine with starting on obscure, but if something else came up that looked more promising, I would think that I could show a desire to eliminate scum more by switching than by stubbornly staying.

There are of course complicating factors. We still have almost a week, by solidifying wagons on objectively LHF slots we do a lot to stifle pushes against players who might otherwise be harder to catch. That's generally why I'm reticent with my vote until late-ish in the day. I am getting the feeling that some people think we are in the "determining major wagons" phase and some people think we are in the "consolidating on major wagons" phase, and the latter are annoyed that the former are not consolidating.

I would vote obscure, but I think that could end up being pretty detrimental if he's town, and while I don't have any particular reason to believe that he is, the numbers say it's likely. (Plus, in my experience, if town doesn't have a clear direction after an early scumflip, they're likely to get a lot of misses. Might not hold as much if it was a vig shot, but I know the leading wagon is on town, at least.)

[Something_Smart]

fake scum bravado

why is it that and not real town bravado? I have a hard time imagining those manifesting differently in this situation.

[Something_Smart]

obscure has a superpower to start posting like the moment they become a topic of interest

wait, that's a superpower? I have that too, I guess I am good at something

(in all seriousness, this is a pretty natural inclination imo. for one, in such a fast-paced game, it's a lot easier to find concrete things to engage with!)

[Something_Smart]

i do it too lol

but it just stuck out to me i guess given the like uhhhhh
idk
profile of a new forum player i guess
lurking and then boom here i am

I think the dynamic I described makes perfect sense with posts like 3651. Struggling to engage, at least people pushing you is something easy to latch onto and talk about.

[Something_Smart]

scamper is fuming

pls don't do this

[Something_Smart]

isnt this good for you s_s

that im distracting votes away from your wagon?

If you two are both town then it doesn't benefit town for you to get in a shitfight, and if neither of you become major wagons then you'll probably just both go back to the wagon you wanted anyway when deadline gets near.

[Something_Smart]

with respect to obscure specifically, I don't think it'd be all that detrimental if we miselimmed him here, every wagon can't be correct. to me, the info of knowing who is SRing (or at least not TRing) obscure enough to vote him, vs who is TRing him (or SRing elsewhere) enough to push a counter proposal, is more useful than players withholding voting in order to try to avoid an errant vote.

I guess. But if scum don't feel any pressure because e.g. the only viable wagons are town-S_S and town-obscure, then they can position around us knowing that, and they can manipulate that perception pretty well. Whereas, if we keep more options open, then they are more likely to show their true feelings to secure a mislim or avoid pressure.

I suppose what I'm talking myself into, which is probably also the best way I personally can show commitment, is to try to find and run up a non-major wagon. But as a new replacement, I'm also not the best judge of what might be a good choice, but I guess I should just pick one. I'll look into that.

[Something_Smart]

were you townreading me

A little.

[Something_Smart]

fwiw all my problems with the slot come from firebringer and zero come from s_s

might be because i have no clue how to read s_s

understandable, have a nice day.

How good is your read record on FB?

[Something_Smart]

who is shea?

Thestatusquo

[Something_Smart]

why

Your confidence in you being a possible nightkill and the way people reacted seemed to imply that you were somewhat out of touch with how you were being read. That's generally town-indicative because scum care more about that (and may be more self-conscious about proclaiming to be a universal townread, for fear of inducing backlash).

[Something_Smart]

how did you react when i voted you

slightly annoyed but not surprised, I guess? I tend not to lean scum on people because they vote me, basically ever.

[Something_Smart]

the S_S progression was kinda ??? and i don't really buy that he went from, like, 'no compelling reason to vote ss' to doing it so quickly.

what's the scum motivation for doing this?

[Something_Smart]

teach me your ways >>

years and years of townies scumreading me for asinine reasons. For some people it could be the opposite, especially if it's someone who hovers around the "scary to scum but maybe mislimmable" zone a lot.

[Something_Smart]

like idk they're saying they're disengaged and not checking in that much and are behind but I think this is like the third time they've popped up IMMEDIATELY to respond when someone mentioned their name.

Like its not that talking about yourself is that big of a tell when you're engaged, its that the immediacy of the response makes me thinking they're much more here and reading than they're letting on and I can't think of a good reason why town would be approaching the game that way.

Obscure, do you have a response to this? How frequently have you been checking the thread?

[Something_Smart]

I trust scamper

To be town, or to be right?

[Something_Smart]

Frog what's my Meyers Briggs type pls respond

You strike me as an ICBM, or maybe an ESPN.

[Something_Smart]

Anti-spew bit?

[Something_Smart]

Oh, Frogster said it, that explains why I didn't read it.

That doesn't really track with the fact that almost half of my posts have been RL today. (And I mentioned I was busy over the weekend, as I often am.)

[Something_Smart]

I mean, yeah you can kinda see that b/c you haven't posted much about your thoughts/feelings.hopes/dreams but then you just replaced in so I don't think its really that odd.

Well, it hasn't been a deliberate strategy, I just don't have many.

I can try to find an example of my anti-spew mode. It's much worse than this. (Not that I would probably be in it as scum at this point; maybe for a little bit while my wagon was high.)

[Something_Smart]

The longer it goes the townier right?

[Something_Smart]

Or it could be a soft confirm, like a loyal action failure or something.

[Something_Smart]

Er, disloyal.

[Something_Smart]

I guess, I wouldn't call that a read per se.

[Something_Smart]

Sure, that's fair.

[Something_Smart]

SS is avoiding interacting with the thread and is shading my slot, and hasn't given any believable reason why they're playing this way.

I seem to recall you saying a bunch of nonsense the last time we played together. Sorry if that's not accurate.

[Something_Smart]

I never said I wasn't. And I have been reading his posts, for the most part; just not as carefully, because I didn't plan on engaging with them much.

[Something_Smart]

Your words suggest you should be taken seriously but your ISO suggests you're just here to troll around every once in a while.

I mean, you should assume I'm trying to win the game, otherwise I'd be breaking site rules.

I want to be taken with some amount of seriousness, and I've said things related to the game, so I'm not really sure how you could get the impression that I don't want to be taken seriously at all.

[Something_Smart]

ngl i am still haunted by that time town's impatience voted off a confirmable town power role, and considering gamma was also in that game, datisi really disliked 4285

Time, singular?

I've seen this happen several times.

[Something_Smart]

If you're accusing me of having wavering levels of self-efficacy then you caught me red-handed.

Can you rephrase this without any psych jargon?

[Something_Smart]

Nah google it

I did. Your response doesn't seem to answer the question.

[Something_Smart]

I get it this is antitown but this is for the good of the town trust me

It's not antitown so long as you actually follow through.

[Something_Smart]

Well, it's antitown if people get fed up and hammer you anyway. Hopefully this town has enough collective self-control to avoid that?

[Something_Smart]

I do not think it is anti town to hammer someone refusing to claim.

That's why he has to state a specific time that he will claim and post thoughts. That isn't refusing to claim.

[Something_Smart]

In practice its the same IMO because frequently town just gets bored and a new wagon happens and then wowie now theres no reason to claim.

Well, there are at least two of us committed to holding him to it. Very likely more.

[Something_Smart]

So I ISO'd marci and the only interesting thing was an extended push of Gamma on D1 followed by 180'ing into having Gamma as their highest townread today. I'm glad I was made aware of this, but I'm not immediately sure how it factors into my read?

[Something_Smart]

i claim vig with a modifier

Did you shoot VPB?

[Something_Smart]

i think if hem is scum and claiming to try to out the vig then he claims the vp shot

I mean, if you're a vig and someone else claims your shot, you don't have to claim, you can just shoot them.

[Something_Smart]

multiball yes but SKs are still allowed in larges

Both are allowed in larges. This actually could be multiball.

[Something_Smart]

What is the benefit of outing the modifier? I doubt that would change our opinions or actions.

Sure it would, novice vig is very different from N5 vig.

[Something_Smart]

are wolf vigs non normal

Extremely. But he could be SK/second scum faction.

[Something_Smart]

I mean yes but this possibility seems not large enough to be worth acting on?

Probably the more relevant advantage is that he flips later which gives us fewer changes to work with associatives.

[Something_Smart]

I want this game to be multiball just so SS can be mad about it at endgame.

Last time I played in a secretly multiball game I called it days before everyone else and got NK'd by one of the scum teams because they couldn't believe that I wasn't informed.

[Something_Smart]

In fact, it was a wolf claiming vig when it wasn't yet revealed there was a second scum faction...

[Something_Smart]

hot take is that hem wanted to shoot his teammate for credit

I'm super down with letting him do that and then die to the SK.

[Something_Smart]

If Gamma flips scum marci is town which is cool.

[Something_Smart]

pedit: and i sorta have a theory that marci's trajectory on gamma was an attempt to pocket her

why would she decide that the best person to start pocketing is the one she tunneled all of the previous day?

[Something_Smart]

Smart is also a fine vig shot and 4813 feels a little survivalist in how he immediately encourages a Gamma shot

Hmm, it didn't occur to me that I was doing that.

I'm not sure Gamma is actually a good shot, because marci might just have an inno there.

[Something_Smart]

why the fuck would you say that?

Because I don't think it's extremely likely, and I'd love for scum to waste their power killing/roleblocking her.

[Something_Smart]

I mean shooting someone who has, say, a 25% chance of being a confirmed inno, when there are other viable options, seems like a poor play.

[Something_Smart]

Well it would be scum indicative, because I would never do that as town and not admit it. 25% was about the number I had in mind when I posted 4835.

[Something_Smart]

and it makes me wonder if it's fair to think marci/gamma is T-T and scum!Smart was more prone to picking up on that because he's looking for results/crumbs in townie's reads

I would be more prone to noticing it, but I'd be less willing to share it, especially if I already had a plan to roleblock/kill marci. In fact I would probably have gladly encouraged shots on either one, since that would do my job for me.

In this case, I ISO'd marci because Nero told me to, and it stood out like a sore thumb.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think that a player having a 25% chance of being an investigative role is not a HUGE number in the context of a random townie? I'm so confused by that statement.

It's relatively high, but not absolutely. If marci is 25% a PR and scum shoot her, they've still killed a VT 75% of the time.

[Something_Smart]

wait how does this make sense if you think marci might have an inno

well obviously if Gamma flips scum then marci didn't have an inno, so what's the problem?

[Something_Smart]

why would that make her town, though. I'd be more suspicious if I thought someone was softing a clear on scum.

I don't think it's very S/S to be tunneling someone all game and then just turn around and have them as top town for no reason.

[Something_Smart]

I can see how this all might makes sense but it confused me because it feels like you're speaking about two separate worlds at the same time

I am, yeah. Sorry if it was confusing, my brain changes gears pretty rapidly.

[Something_Smart]

i mean it doesn't really line up with what ive seen from town SS before

both games ive played with town SS he was like extremely secretive about sharing thoughts out of fear that doing so would benefit scum, especially role related things

i don't really see how this fits into that mindset

idk what exactly his motivations would be as scum, there's lots of possibilities, one that comes to mind is s/s with marci, knowing that he probably isn't going to live that long, and wanting to make it look like he tmi'd her as town

I am an enigma

I am fully aware of the difference, if you want me to explain it. But I get that self meta is not often reliable.

[Something_Smart]

tbf it's not like Marci had been tunneling Gamma all d1, just briefly there @ then end of d1 and that, to me at least, felt like some distancing.

Idk, it looks to me like she was scumreading Gamma from kinda early on?

[Something_Smart]

yes sure that would be useful

i have nothing against self meta

ok, sure. I approach mechanics completely differently in open games vs closed games, because scum have way more information about what PR's they are looking for and how they might play. This is especially true in F&E, where it's usually possible for scum to narrow down the PR's pretty effectively just based on people's reads-- as evidenced in the game, where exactly that happened despite my best efforts to prevent it.

Here, barring weird edge cases, me stating that marci might be a PR doesn't actually give scum any information, because there's no link between us; it's just an opinion that might be wrong. Sure, it can set them looking at that path if they didn't already notice it, but I felt like it stood out enough, and marci is an unpredictable enough player that it was at least as likely to mislead scum as to lead them correctly.

[Something_Smart]

well this makes multiball somewhat less likely

[Something_Smart]

hmm I think I see where this is going

[Something_Smart]

would it help you evaluate the believability of HEM's claim to know his modifier?

[Something_Smart]

all my scumreads are claiming vig

I expect nothing less than six deaths tonight.

[Something_Smart]

wolf team is informed of the existence of an x vigilante

this is quite a weird assumption, it seems a priori very unlikely?

[Something_Smart]

i’ve seen weird specific informs b4

sure, but if it's specific, then it's unlikely to be that specific thing

[Something_Smart]

S_S I was initially scumreading less because there were some early signs of him trying to have influence on the game, but that has since fizzled out into nothing and an apparent contendedness to just let things happen around him. Though it has been a while since his last post, so I'm keen to see where things go from here.

Translation: I fell off + L + ratio.

My motivation definitely comes in fits and starts. I'm obviously more contented with how things are going than when I was the top wagon, so I think that should be understandable? But if there's anything in particular you wanted to hear from me, I'm always happy to respond to queries.

[Something_Smart]

I could use more information about how you search for AI stuff.

My primary tool is asking myself whether, if someone did a particular behavior deliberately, they would expect to be townread for it. Generally scum will not do things that they anticipate will get them scumread, whereas town are far more likely to not care.

This method does not work in reverse-- plenty of townies will do things that they expect may net them townreads. In fact I find there are very few things that are likely to come from scum that are highly unlikely to come from town, which is why my scum leanings are almost always very mild, where they do exist.

[Something_Smart]

I can try. It doesn't work very well on people who are new (e.g. obscure) or who are extremely skilled as scum (e.g. skitter). It also is less effective on posts that were made before I was in the game, as I won't have the context to evaluate how it might be interpreted. But I can look at their ISO's and see if I can come up with anything.

[Something_Smart]

Nice timing lol.

[Something_Smart]

Idea of what?

Absolutely nothing from skitter/obscure btw. Obscure is (as has already been pointed out) an odd combination of new to the site and very eloquent/self-assured, but with him having no knowledge of site meta, I can't reliably say that he would expect to be scumread or townread for X thing.

[Something_Smart]

Nero, you seem quite bothered by my posts. Do you think I’m scum?

probably, yes

probably, yes

Cool

UNVOTE:

????

Your scumread on me seems superficial but not inauthentic

I mildly like this sequence from DV

[Something_Smart]

you say you have a method of getting reads on people generally and you said that its generally not effective in some cases but I'm unsure why you didn't at least try to use this method on the wagons that happened since you've replaced in.

I have! I think about it every time I read a post. But most of the time it doesn't return anything.

[Something_Smart]

DV seems generally pretty careful and deliberate with his posting, it could be partially for optics or it could just be his style. Aside from the sequence I quoted I didn't see a lot that deviated from "scum playing a standard solid-ish scumgame". Since there are surely other people who also fit that description, I guess he's on the chopping block for low activity?

His progression on me doesn't really make a lot of sense, it seemed like he had me as town for mild efforting when it was potentially possible to get towncred from WK'ing, and now that my wagon has collapsed he wants to keep open the option of re-starting it. Or he just happened to have weakly-justified reads that followed that pattern.

[Something_Smart]

I would like to hear a little bit about why this (and anything else) stand out to you.

Well, it stands out because it's weird, and doesn't make a lot of sense on the face. Nero is absolutely not the type of person to townread this or take it well at all, and if he was actually setting up a push on Nero then he ruined it.

[Something_Smart]

Hopeful that the slot will finally contain someone I can read, I guess?

[Something_Smart]

It's possible, is there anything in particular leading you to consider that?

[Something_Smart]

I knew about it, but in fairness I have a pretty good reason to know about it.

[Something_Smart]

I'm guessing that #5185 and #5186 are within Dease's scum range?

I would think so. At this point scum-Deas has license to go for a risky-ish play.

[Something_Smart]

I love it when people arbitrarily decide what wagons are acceptable.

[Something_Smart]

GL did you just say I was scum for not leveraging my vote?

[Something_Smart]

part of me just thinks is scum. If we let her live and she's scum she'll just claim roleblocked.

Which is a problem why?

[Something_Smart]

No way I would tell MT to put up a neon sign saying "I'm scum trying to live one more day" and then

not

try to reap any towncred from her wagon after she did so.

[Something_Smart]

Also, I'm VT. I debated claiming yesterday. I probably should have.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, obviously I should have, but I didn't know that CSF was going to shoot a PR.

[Something_Smart]

Well, I have to imagine that if I were on a scumteam with someone who repped into a slot being wagoned, they would probably look to me for claim advice, and I would probably provide it. Or at least I would say "lol don't claim that, it will be really obvious you are scum" and she is probably the type of person to listen.

[Something_Smart]

I agree. I'm not sure exactly what I would do to "reap towncred from the wagon", but I'm sure it would be something. Certainly not just 5458.

My favorite scum tactic is to do something that looks like there'd be absolutely no reason to do it as scum. I probably would have argued more strongly that she should be given a day to confirm? But maybe that would have been too heavy-handed.

[Something_Smart]

I was actually in a weird spot because that claim sounded a priori unlikely to be real, and likely to be a fakeclaim, but there seemed to be little downside in letting her confirm. Hence 5458. I never really reached a conclusion, and indeed I was not given a chance to. Imagine how much more info we could have gotten if we'd slowrolled that wagon instead of rushing it.

[Something_Smart]

I also kinda feel like MT is self-aware enough to know that that claim is NOT going to go over well. So either she repped into a doomed slot and just didn't care, or it was planned that that claim would just get her killed faster, indicating pretty heavy bussing.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not upset about this by the way! TPRs get shot/blown up, it happens, it's their job

I mean, they would have inherited vig and become conftown otherwise...

[Something_Smart]

Unsure.

[Something_Smart]

Didn't really feel like deep diving in light of the Gamma/MT flip when there was a decent chance I got vigged.

[Something_Smart]

It was pretty obvious when HEM said he couldn't shoot N1 but could shoot N2 and marci said she thought HEM had a modifier that fit in with hers.

[Something_Smart]

For reference, 4912 was me figuring out that it was odd/even vigs.

[Something_Smart]

this is such a horrible town read that it has to be anti-partnery right?

It seems kinda pockety yeah

[Something_Smart]

It seems like pretty typical Frogster shenanigans, honestly. Feels like it's unlikely to be agenda-motivated in that he thinks the aggregated reads will be wrong, but it might just be scum-him trying to come up with something distracting to do.

[Something_Smart]

Bussing all your teammates at once is weirdly common.

[Something_Smart]

This is not the kind of post I like to see coming from a slot I recently defended. Yikes.

What, saying that you are not 100% locktown?

I don't scumread you overall.

[Something_Smart]

if we'd let her live and she survived until today and claimed roleblocked, what would you have done?

Voteparked her

[Something_Smart]

What, saying that you are not 100% locktown?

Guess I should have read on before being snarky.

You might be right about "honestly" being scum-indicative. I think it's more likely indicative of me subconsciously trying to indicate to Dann that I want to just talk reads with him, and not have them muddied by doubts about my alignment. That's probably why I added it, as it serves no semantic purpose.

As for the hedge bit, it's just how I saw your play. Dann said he thought you might be aggregating reads as scum because you knew the resulting reads would be pro-scum. I didn't think you'd do that, but you might aggregate them as scum for a different reason. It's not really a hedge, it just sounds like one at first blush.

[Something_Smart]

...

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: mena

hi!

do u mind explaining why u showed as having a gun last night?

Reposting for pagetop. Nobody should comment until Mena responds.

[Something_Smart]

that is a hardclaim, btw

why would you announce you were gunsmith before Mena claimed, giving him the opportunity to fakeclaim a role with a gun?

[Something_Smart]

And then, why did Mena

not do that

?

[Something_Smart]

I will say that the presence of a gunsmith means the clear on datisi is not as strong as it was without that information. When I mod gunsmith I try to put in scum roles that don't have a gun so its not a full clear. I have no idea if doing that is normal or not.

It is; scum doc doesn't have a gun. And with two vigis (and a universal backup) and a gunsmith, scum doc is entirely plausible.

[Something_Smart]

My interpretation of this situation is that there is almost no way for Mena to be town

I mean yes. The question I'm currently grappling with is whether scamper/Mena is S/S.

[Something_Smart]

because it was (somewhat ill thought out) reaction test obviously

Nah, that's reasonable. But I guess yeah it doesn't really accomplish much if scum-Mena knows his slot already claimed.

[Something_Smart]

that makes literally 0 sense

I forgot your slot had claimed, and your reaction didn't make sense as a scum response to a real guilty.

[Something_Smart]

and i am annoyed that after about 2 ingame days, i have nothing to read s_s for either way

well be the change you wish to see in the world? what could I do to help you read me better?

[Something_Smart]

dude I've been telling you for games if not years

vote
participate in wagons
make it clear what your reads are

You played with me way back when I did this, didn't you? It was terrible, I got mislimmed constantly.

(Also, I was asking Dats. The answer will be different for each person.)

[Something_Smart]

False.

[Something_Smart]

No, I've been working on work because I'm at work, lol.

[Something_Smart]

Maybe later today. It's not going to change your mind though, so I wouldn't wait up for it.

[Something_Smart]

That kind of analysis is not my strong suit, and the kind of logic I apply while doing it isn't really hard to replicate as scum.

[Something_Smart]

okay, then do something that is hard for you to replicate as scum?

*gestures at my ISO*

[Something_Smart]

S_S and Datisi, would you say HDP is pretty indicative of S_S scum range or is it kind of an off game?

HDP was my second-strongest scumgame to date, at least in terms of how I felt about my play. It was a far better showing than my typical scumgame.

[Something_Smart]

Spoiler: Through ISO 50

s_s, give me three of your strongest reads in either direction

gamma town dann town shea town. based on some other people's stated reads these seem to be

very

out of touch, but that's hardly surprising. (then again, I think disagreeing with Frogster makes me more likely to be in touch than out of touch.)

I doubt I would townread partner-gamma here, that seems pretty risky given gamma's mixed scum record and how awkward it would be if I had to defend him

honestly i feel like i should have died last night and the fact im still alive makes me think i have townread scum

Because you're a shining beacon of towniness, or because you made a claim I didn't see?

if I were scum I would probably know the answer to this already

Don't do that. As scum I constantly angle around "there's no way townie X gets out of being eliminated here" and I constantly get surprised by it. And I love it when townies do this because a lot of the time the town will just shrug their shoulders and go along with it.

Pedit: @shea

not sure I would be this blunt about my scum thought processes if I am currently experiencing them as I talk about it

why not

I didn't have an immediate answer to this. But I'm pretty sure the answer is that you have a rare combination of motivation and open-mindedness that makes you valuable lategame if town. And I'm not inordinately scared of your scumgame-- it's good, but not something a competent town can't handle especially if we can take down your buddies first.

maybe wouldn't have come up with this as scum? maybe would have. not sure

however I'd also like to see where some of the bad vote slots (obscure, DV, S_S, marci, xofelf replacement) go while the wagons are still fairly tied up

Serious question, but you don't have to answer: what vote from me would make you townread me the most/scumread me the least?

This is an incredibly brazen towncred-grab. I'm not sure I'd have the guts to ask this as scum. I expected more backlash than I got; maybe people misunderstood me.

what I'm looking for mainly is some type of commitment to a wagon that you think has a chance of happening

whether that's obscure, TSQ, or somebody else specifically is less material to whether I understand who you think is the best flip for the game and why, and whether you're taking action to make that happen

I know you indicated a townread on Shea, so for me it's like - would you vote obscure? Why or why not? If not, why are you seemingly ok with him being at risk of lim and not pushing any alternatives that you think are better?

in a realistic sense voting obscure and then obscure flipping red would go a decent way towards weakening my scumread. I just won't have any reason to townread you until I can start to believe that you are trying to eliminate mafia

Certainly in some cases, I could demonstrate commitment by remaining flexible, no? I think I'm fine with starting on obscure, but if something else came up that looked more promising, I would think that I could show a desire to eliminate scum more by switching than by stubbornly staying.

There are of course complicating factors. We still have almost a week, by solidifying wagons on objectively LHF slots we do a lot to stifle pushes against players who might otherwise be harder to catch. That's generally why I'm reticent with my vote until late-ish in the day. I am getting the feeling that some people think we are in the "determining major wagons" phase and some people think we are in the "consolidating on major wagons" phase, and the latter are annoyed that the former are not consolidating.

I would vote obscure, but I think that could end up being pretty detrimental if he's town, and while I don't have any particular reason to believe that he is, the numbers say it's likely. (Plus, in my experience, if town doesn't have a clear direction after an early scumflip, they're likely to get a lot of misses. Might not hold as much if it was a vig shot, but I know the leading wagon is on town, at least.)

This is pretty deep stuff, it shows a vested interest in getting on the same page as GL. My response as scum is likely more terse.

were you townreading me

A little.

Real talk I don't think I would have remembered the answer to this as scum so I probably would have just said "no"

That actually may not be true, but it might be. Or I might have exaggerated the read when I went back to check.

If this is helpful I can keep doing it

[Something_Smart]

also i did think about the gamma defense thing but im p sure at that point you would have expected to flip before gamma and i think it's a play that makes more sense in that world

do you think I would rule-of-3 myself, then?

[Something_Smart]

And yes, the whole point of 3833 was for GL to say "I'll townread you the most if you vote X", and then I vote X, and then GL townreads me more.

[Something_Smart]

Not sarcasm. 100% genuine.

[Something_Smart]

I don't like that he made the post itself at all, like it seems like the kind of thing I wouldn't expect him to do or expect to be useful because it's WIFOMy self-meta

I wouldn't have done it normally, but Datisi specifically asked. Worst case, it's WIFOM self-meta and he says he doesn't care.

[Something_Smart]

s_s, you haven't answered who you want to kill today

If I had to pick one person probably DV?

[Something_Smart]

I have *zero* scumreads. DV seems like the one who's gotten the most support who isn't me or Mena (now that someone readable is finally in the slot I don't want to kill him before he becomes readable, and the reaction test was +town because he's more likely to admit that he knew his slot claimed as scum).

[Something_Smart]

i am slightly inclined to townread both dann and deas for the votes on gamma they did shortly prior to this votecount (i will keep reading to see what happened there, but this is the first impression)

really? seems like a pretty safe time to be bussing, when HEM was in the process of imploding.

[Something_Smart]

do you have ANY reads that don't boil down to "this person has a claimed innocent on them"

Ausuka, Frogster, and scamper all +town I guess. I feel like townleaning GL which I guess makes him scummy?

Many of the contentious slots here are people I have had historical trouble reading, like Nero, Dann, and GL. (Have I had trouble reading Nero? I've played with him before, and I don't remember ever having a confident correct read. Maybe that's just because I was scum most of the time.)

[Something_Smart]

I mean someone can look at S_S scum games and tell me if he's ever claimed to just have zero scum reads at all when being pressured as scum.

I'm sure I have.

[Something_Smart]

I remember S_S making multi-colored reads lists as scum

Is this a justification for your unvote? Can you generalize it into a statement on my town vs scum play?

(I am going somewhere with this, don't worry.)

[Something_Smart]

Look scumhunting is hard ok

[Something_Smart]

I *think* generally that you actually try harder to appear town in the traditional sense that everyone expects when you're scum. Maybe not by much, but I think you feel a little more pressure to warp your playstyle to expectations.

I think this is true sometimes. HDP was one of those times, so I expect Frogster to find something similar.

There was something very specific I was hoping you would mention. I genuinely don't know the answer to this, so I'm kinda testing your memory here: do you remember if there was ever a point in Baton Pass where I deliberately stated I was going to try to be more decisive that game?

[Something_Smart]

I'm pretty sure I use "honestly" as a signal for "what comes next is going to be embarrassing/unexpected".

[Something_Smart]

There is no single type of scum hunting in my entire 15+ years on this site that is more ineffective than attempting to psychoanalyze peoples specific word choices.

It just literally does not work. Ever.

You say this, but I think "definitely" was a scumtell for me for a while.

But, you have to be extremely in tune with someone's meta to have any shot at doing it right. One game that you weren't even in is not going to prove much.

[Something_Smart]

I feel like maybe you're hinting at being more susceptible to playing like the thread wants you to play as mafia?

If you're so self-aware of this idk how much it helps really though

Yes, but specifically I wanted to see if it was something you caught onto. I did this in both HDP and RC's uPick-- "I'm gonna break out of my noncommittal meta and MAKE SOME READS"-- and if you had explicitly pointed that out I probably would have tossed you a sizable +town.

And, I agree with you that it's not going to be relevant from now on, since I am aware of it. Which is good, because I'm considering doing it, but for real this time.

Reading back's gonna be pretty hard, though. Usually I do a lot of my deep reading during downtime at work, but I'm having a relatively stressful and busy week at work, so it'll be harder for me to do that. (Shouldn't affect lighter real-time interactions, as you can see.)

[Something_Smart]

I'm not sure why that would've meant I'm more likely to be town tbh

well, because I think you unvoted at a very weird and potentially performative time. that would be a great time as scum to go "oh look I'm unvoting the widely scumread townie to give him some more space" knowing that he's probably gonna die anyway. And your reasoning was okay, but if it had been that specific thing (that didn't really occur to me until just now), it would have felt like a much stronger (and correct) argument, showing you put real thought into it instead of just looking for an excuse to WK.

[Something_Smart]

i'm waiting for
(1) mena to do something ai
(2) s_s to give a read on him

I think Mena's reaction to the gambit was moderately +town (I believe I already said as much?) because he clearly expressed ignorance that his predecessor claimed. (Could be faked ignorance, but if he's scum it probably wasn't real.)

[Something_Smart]

You think this scum team with the even-night-friendly-neighbor claim actually knew which vig to kill, and *that's* why marci was killed??

What do you mean by this?

[Something_Smart]

would an even night serial killer be normal

*bonk* go to tinfoil jail.

[Something_Smart]

For what potential upside?

[Something_Smart]

I don't understand the question, then. I wouldn't make a bet that I can lose but can't win.

[Something_Smart]

ok fine - how well do you think you can read mena

I would say, better than I can read most people. I recall one game, cursed though it was, where I was pretty much the only person to (correctly) call out Mena as scum. Of course I was not in a position to convince anyone, but when am I ever?

That's honestly the main thing that's making me feel this way, so I don't know how accurate it is. But I don't think I've played with scum-Mena many other times (and I can't recall ever confidently and incorrectly scumreading him), so I guess I have an okay read rate historically.

[Something_Smart]

but all of the sudden he's like "yeah I correctly scumread Mena one time so I have an okay read rate historically"?

...I mean, did I use "historically" wrong? My read rate on him in past games has been better than chance. It's very rare that I'm the only person in a game to confidently scumread someone, so it's pretty noteworthy to me when I do that and am correct.

[Something_Smart]

The amount of indecision people are showing on me is fascinating. I don't know if I've ever seen it before.

[Something_Smart]

I'll be indecisive if I want to be

I'm not saying it's a bad thing.

I'm trying to interpret what, if anything, the scum strategy wrt me is. My intuition is that they're hoping a townie will lead the charge and subsequently take the blame?

[Something_Smart]

I mean, didn't you say that when asked to self meta as scum you tell the truth and then hope town don't realise it applies to this game

Usually, yes. Does it look like I did that?

[Something_Smart]

I have a terrible memory but I feel like tweet's claim might be an indicator that scum also figured out the odd/even situation? At least partially

They might have, but I would think it was more likely just an explanation for why the FN didn't go off N1.

[Something_Smart]

If the word hardclaim ever meant anything, it no longer does

I don't think hardclaim ever meant that it couldn't be a lie. It just meant it was a literal and real claim, meant to be taken seriously.

[Something_Smart]

What's an example of what scum!S_S would suggest for Tweet to claim?

Unsure, it would depend on the roles of the team and how exactly I felt the team was positioned.

An investigative role of some kind would probably be more likely allowed to survive; perhaps a tracker with a random "went nowhere" result on a townie N1. If they contradict it, hey we outed a PR; if not, hey our claim is backed up. Plus, if she dies anyway, it would create some WIFOM over whether she claimed a result on a partner.

Depending on partner positioning on the wagon, VT is also a good option. A VT claim pulled off well with a "last will"-ish post could convince people that she's not playing survivalistically enough to be scum.

[Something_Smart]

i was hoping that s_s would have some sorta comment on this if i just kept bringing it up, but it doesn't seem like he will

s_s, what is this post lol

What's to comment on? It was a joke that ended up being prescient.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, if you want me to adopt any particular changes to my tone that would make me more readable, I'm down to try it, but I can't promise anything.

[Something_Smart]

also scamper is either gated or was role blocked given he didn't get a result from last night

Or doesn't always get conclusive results, or targeted a dead player, etc.

[Something_Smart]

Gated refers to the even-odd night thing?

Gated means any modifier that affects when a role can be used, like odd/even night, X-shot, etc.

[Something_Smart]

Now watch me be wrong lol

Have you ever read me right? When was the last time you even played with me?

[Something_Smart]

I guess you correctly had me as scum in 2126 for most of the game, though that one was really mechanically weird.

Idk, it seems like you're projecting extreme confidence with no good reason to be doing so. Why are you so deadset on killing me today?

[Something_Smart]

I think you are scummy.

what have I done that's more likely to come from scum than town

[Something_Smart]

Argue in such a way to benefit yourself

right, I love arguing in a way that gets me killed as town

[Something_Smart]

fun fact, I am town, so benefiting me is benefiting the town too

[Something_Smart]

Like you know that you are scummy hence why you aren't asking me what's scummy you are trying to frame it in such a way that attempts to nullify your scumminess

I am literally asking you what's scummy, what are you talking about

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Nero Cain

[Something_Smart]

do you have a rebuttal to any of my posts? or are you just going to concede that they are sound

[Something_Smart]

do you have a rebuttal to any of my posts? or are you just going to concede that they are sound

[Something_Smart]

Do you think I have a chance of being eliminated today? Seems like such a throwaway vote

yes, and I think this might be valuable even if you don't get close

[Something_Smart]

6519 6520 6521. That question was aimed at Nero

[Something_Smart]

They are all things that directly contradict things he said. 6519 was sarcastic, but the point is that that behavior is town behavior as well as scum behavior.

[Something_Smart]

So your point is essentially "Why am I scummy?"

That was the question. He said some things, and I pointed out why those things didn't really hold, and he dropped it. I assume that means he has no good response.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not doing nothing. I have 198 posts, and almost all of them relate to the game.

I may not be doing what you wish I was doing, but I've generally been pretty open to attempting things that people ask me to do.

[Something_Smart]

On some level I just don't understand what S_S gets out of playing this way. It must be exhausting where every game you play you have to spend the majority of it defending your lack of doing much but he keeps playing so he must enjoy it so I just have to try to figure it out and that's why I keep calling the push on him lazy. It seems like you and the others are attempting to pretend like S_S's meta just doesn't exist because you're too lazy to find a person who actually has a high likelihood of being scum this game.

In fairness, Nero doesn't really know my meta, and plenty of people aren't very willing to trust secondhand meta.