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[DeasVail]

i asked for no hammer until mena is back.

Ah, sorry.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: S_S

How long are we waiting?

[DeasVail]

Dease why did you lurk out and then pop in here all casual to get your vote on the Menalque wagon?

I was busy yesterday but wouldn’t say I was lurking? Also the game has been at a standstill for a number of to days now. If voting Menalque gets the game to progress I was willing to do that. I think Menalque is more likely town than scum but I’m prepared for the possibility that I’m wrong.

VOTE: Menalque

i asked for no hammer until mena is back.

Ah, sorry.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: S_S

How long are we waiting?

Dease suspicious behavior is reinforcing my belief in the scum flip FYI.

Dease why did you lurk out and then pop in here all casual to get your vote on the Menalque wagon?

And then vote S_S instead? What are you doing..

S_S remains my favoured elimination and was where I was before. I am happy to follow Datisi’s request to wait for Mena for now

[DeasVail]

Hi Menalque

[DeasVail]

There seemed to be a lot of posts at the time that were based on the assumption that there would be some sort of coaching etc. in the scumchat

[DeasVail]

I've tried telling Menalque to claim odd-night friendly neighbour but he doesn't want to

[DeasVail]

Frog, I'm not scum

[DeasVail]

DV, you still around? I’ve browsed your ISO but I don’t rly understand your preference for an S_S lim

Only for a little bit longer, but my scumread on S_S does not come from deep analysis.

My main reasons are that I think he was trying to keep the option of my elimination open Day 2 whilst there was indecision regarding the Gamma/MT slot, without

looking

like he was hoping for my elimination.
The play D3 is also just... flat. And incongruous with the hero Nero vote and trying to sell that as something scum-him wouldn't do. It feels more performative than actually trying to work reads out. Why isn't he working out whether I'm scum or not? After he seemed so open to that idea yesterday?

Also everyone else I can convince myself into finding a reason for them to be town. I can't with S_S

[DeasVail]

fwiw also i did not visit "whoever died" n1

[DeasVail]

DV, you still around? I’ve browsed your ISO but I don’t rly understand your preference for an S_S lim

Only for a little bit longer, but my scumread on S_S does not come from deep analysis.

My main reasons are that I think he was trying to keep the option of my elimination open Day 2 whilst there was indecision regarding the Gamma/MT slot, without

looking

like he was hoping for my elimination.
The play D3 is also just... flat. And incongruous with the hero Nero vote and trying to sell that as something scum-him wouldn't do. It feels more performative than actually trying to work reads out. Why isn't he working out whether I'm scum or not? After he seemed so open to that idea yesterday?

Also everyone else I can convince myself into finding a reason for them to be town. I can't with S_S

Okay, let me go back and reread his D2 play for that, but I still really don’t think that fb plays this way, in this PL, and then reps out if he got scum

What would be so different for fb about being scum in this playerlist vs. town?

[DeasVail]

Nero, you seem quite bothered by my posts. Do you think I’m scum?

probably, yes

probably, yes

Cool

UNVOTE:

????

Your scumread on me seems superficial but not inauthentic

I mildly like this sequence from DV

DV seems generally pretty careful and deliberate with his posting, it could be partially for optics or it could just be his style. Aside from the sequence I quoted I didn't see a lot that deviated from "scum playing a standard solid-ish scumgame". Since there are surely other people who also fit that description, I guess he's on the chopping block for low activity?

His progression on me doesn't really make a lot of sense, it seemed like he had me as town for mild efforting when it was potentially possible to get towncred from WK'ing, and now that my wagon has collapsed he wants to keep open the option of re-starting it. Or he just happened to have weakly-justified reads that followed that pattern.

I'm guessing that #5185 and #5186 are within Dease's scum range?

I would think so. At this point scum-Deas has license to go for a risky-ish play.

As far as I can see, these are the only S_S posts on you from D2, DV and tbh I’m not seeing it?

He seems to have been fairly openly not pro-MT lim but I think this is far too little to conclude that he’s hoping it might get you limmed instead

As for why he’s not as interested in you today, that I am curious about but I have an idea of what it could be, although I’d like to see S_S respond first

I think it's worth noting that at the time I was looking like the most viable alternative wagon to Gamma/MT. Thus, the posts you've quoted are very much leaving me open as an option, but the fact that there is not more about me from S_S indicates a weird hesitation from him to consider the main alternative to MT, despite being not pro-MT lim.

[DeasVail]

I find Menalque’s townread on S_S to be very superficial, and the identification of myself and Dannflor, for example, as scumreads without any further explanation feels underdone. Keen to hear more.

[DeasVail]

I’m at the stage where I think both S_S and Menalque are scummy but I don’t necessarily think they’re scum together and I don’t know how to feel about that.

[DeasVail]

I’m at the stage where I think both S_S and Menalque are scummy but I don’t necessarily think they’re scum together and I don’t know how to feel about that.

is there a particular reason u believe they are unaligned?

Menalque’s weak reasoning for townreading Firebringer feels a bit blatant for scum
who knows that Fb was scum.

I guess it’s not that unlikely, but idk. It doesn’t feeel like that’s the solve.

[DeasVail]

idk I kinda feel like

if

they're both scum, then they're in a position where they're forced to defend each other. bussing at this stage isn't gonna net significant towncred and they wouldn't really have a team left, possibly losing outright if both are flipped.

that's not an argument

for

them being scum together, but I don't see this "townread and refuse to vote each other" play as clearing or T-S if one flips red

Yeah it’s a good point you make and I hadn’t really gone fully down the path of “if they’re scum together how would they act”, but idk neither of them are playing in a way that’s likely to cause anything else to happen.

[DeasVail]

I’m planning to revisit the Dann slot as well, but Menalque’s play from yesterday stands out more to me

[DeasVail]

Okay cliffnotes version, I have class soon:

(1) his reasons for SRing S_S going from D2 don’t really seem to be borne out at all when reading S_S posts — specifically that he said S_S was trying to keep him viable vs MT/gamma!slot without looking like he was doing so. Go look at S_S’ ISO for yourself, there’s like 3 posts even about DV iirc and I don’t think you could characterise any of them as “trying to keep DV available without looking like it to maybe save MT/gamma!slot”

(2) I don’t like that while he was happy to riff with me and gave a shaky sort of TR on my slot, the moment that I put him in my scum group he shifted to calling me scum and is now trying to characterise my play from yesterday as something he had issue with— only I think we can all agree I barely played yesterday and so what shifted for my play being something that merited a soft townread “when he thought about it” to being something he wants to “look at further today” or whatever the exact phrasing was when the content is all basically the same and the only thing that’s changed is that my orientation towards him went from playful->suspicious

I’m only able to engage superficially rn but I think it’s pretty reasonable to be looking at slots with suspicion after the townflip of someone I suspected to be scum.
I am aware that I may be unduly suspecting you in part because of your suspicion on me and I do want to avoid that, but I am missing what about that you actually think is scummy from me. As scum I could have just as easily continued to call you town and remained strong on S_S.

To some degree I don’t really believe that you feeel the scumread on me. Frogster was driving himself into the ground trying to convince everyone (and maybe even himself) that I was scum. Even fire’s suspicion on me felt like a true resignation to the fact that maybe I am scum. But your case seems to essentially boil down to the fact that we disagreed on S_S and that I OMGUS’d you, which combined with your reasoning on S_S town feel like really weak attempts to replicate a stronger towngame.

[DeasVail]

You pointing to the S_S iso is irrelevant and you should know this because you weren’t there. There was a real chance of me being eliminated instead of gamma and scum in that position were going to have to tread carefully. Do they give up on gamma or try to get me eliminated? How hard do they try? Do they say almost nothing about me (except for occasional shading) while also not committing to gamma in the hope that things may swing in my direction without them actually spearheading it? I’m not sure what’s so difficult to parse about that theory

[DeasVail]

V/LA for 3 days

because of family commitments but I’ll be as engaged as I can be during that time.

My reads at the moment are very much “idk” but I’m hoping to gain some clarity on that over the course of this game day.

[DeasVail]

Just throwing out random "x feels why" or "oh i think x is town now" with no reasoning or anything is just... Not how i seriously see town approach real rereads.

Usually there's quotes. Or specific posts or specific thoughts on things that happened. There's none of that here. There's just random asides on alignment.

It just feels so fake. I'm going to see if i can track down a fire game where there did a reread as town and see if it looks anything like this because i remember them saying they're on mobile before but idk man.

Am I crazy? Has anyone seen a town reread before that looked like this?

It doesn't seem as strange to me, because a lot of the time I will form a read of someone in my head before working out how to articulate it, and if I'm doing a re-read I may not feel the need to immediately (or ever) articulate exactly what's making me feel a certain read. Sometimes I will want to explain myself for the sake of justifying my thoughts or facilitating discussion, but sometimes for me it's enough to have decided on a read, and that's satisfying enough.

What if I said that you are crazy?

[DeasVail]

zzz

VOTE: menalque

mena feels less dead this game than in the last game i've seen scum!him, but uh. this is still a far cry from what i'd expect town!mena to actually do here. so let's give a bit more motivation, then?

this is also a reminder to @menalque that i want explanations for all of the reads in the readslist that happened yesterday. was it yesterday? idk this game is blurring together but there's probably only one readslist so whatever

i also agree that fire's reread isn't Great but also at this point i think i'd need much much more from him to change my opinion of him on this game

uhh, who said that frogs can post like this as scum, was it @shea? (if it wasn't, whoever it was) do you still hold that view? bc i am really struggling to imagine scum-frogs posting with this much... i don't know non-rude words to describe it, but you know what i mean.

How should I be interpreting Menalque's expressed suspicion of me?

[DeasVail]

I’m glad to see that Nero’s approach of simply always SRing me no matter how many times he’s wrong sails on a steady course tho

I mean, Nero will inevitably be right eventually

[DeasVail]

I mean I don't think it's shea

(i don't think he's scum either i just wanted to get fire to give an actual answer)

i think ive been p clear lately that i think its frog/mena/GL but maybe not idk

I don’t think it’s Frog. He seemed legitimately worked up about me being scum and I think if he were faking that he would have kept on suspecting me instead of dropping the suspicion like he has

[DeasVail]

Fire, re: Frogster I agree that his early play was not particularly town but his later play where he was aggressively pushing me felt very different from the Go game. Do you think that’s possible from frog as scum?

[DeasVail]

VOTE: Menalque

[DeasVail]

I’d really hate it if I was right about Frogster and then convinced myself out of it, but thinking it over, it’s possible. That all said, I think Menalque is probably the way to go. There is just no conviction there

[DeasVail]

gah does anyone remember this or am I just making it up? I feel like somebody at some point threw shade at CSF or had her in their scumreads, and then someone else was like "uhhh did you forget her claim" and then it was dropped and I want to find that and reread it in light of potential scum!CSF, but I don't remember who it was or when it happened and have no idea how to trawl through the thread to find it, especially since my memory of it is so vague

does anybody remember the thing I'm talking about

p-edit: oh maybe it was that

It might have been me. I think I had CSF as not completely top town at one point

[DeasVail]

ah nvm, you found it

[DeasVail]

well that was a ride

[DeasVail]

tbf though I also very much doubt that Mena is town at this point

[DeasVail]

Also I thought Dann's post about me, Dann, GL and fire all feeling forced to suspect each other but not wanting to was cute <3

[DeasVail]

I feel like theoretically bussing is just always a good idea as scum but it tends to make people upset so I avoid it.

Also good night all

[DeasVail]

I feel like theoretically bussing is just always a good idea as scum but it tends to make people upset so I avoid it.

Also good night all

Our hydra as scum would have constant dissonance. I don't like bussing lol

That’s okay. We would look more genuine that way

[DeasVail]

Please sign up for my mini normal!!

Actually smiled at this

[DeasVail]

Nice shot Titus

[DeasVail]

Also Obscure played a pretty solid scumgame

[DeasVail]

Frogster, earlier in the game you were going on about how I’ve often been the “deepwolf” in scum games I’ve played and that seemed to be a big part of your suspicion on me. Why are you not concerned about me atm?

[DeasVail]

Frogster, earlier in the game you were going on about how I’ve often been the “deepwolf” in scum games I’ve played and that seemed to be a big part of your suspicion on me. Why are you not concerned about me atm?

I got better at playing forum mafia since this game started. I can elaborate more if you want me too.

Elaboration would probably be helpful because I’m not sure who is scum from here and you’re one of the possibilities

[DeasVail]

Thanks Frog

[DeasVail]

I’m thinking between Fire and Shea atm

[DeasVail]

am i dumb for thinking gl is townie for posting around page 215?

like, i think at that point tweet has probably said "uh oh guys i'm gonna die" in the scum pt and like, i struggle seeing scum!gl then go and write big cases on obscure

if it really was that tweetie replaced in and said "uh oh guys i'm going to die" and scum-guiltylion was like "l know!! i will start writing a case on obscure!!" i am going to scream

Yeah I don’t think so

[DeasVail]

Not sure who I’d prefer between Fire and Shea right now but I’d definitely go for one of them over Frogster

[DeasVail]

I’m also vt

[DeasVail]

I will have my thoughts up later today.

[DeasVail]

Looking over the options, I had excluded all except Frogsterking, Shea and fireisredsir as elimination possibilities for today. If anyone needs my reasoning on any of the exclusions, then I'm happy to provide, but it seems fairly consensus.

I had initially considered Frogsterking, but have decided that in my opinion he is not super likely to be scum. 5479 through 5520 is just such a strange progression from scum. Directly communicating with CSF in-thread about whether to just let Morning Tweet die or go for my elim instead just feels way too.... blatantly like a scum PT conversation for it to be carried out in thread like that? Especially since if it was CSF + Frog as scum with Tweet there, there was very little evidence actual townies wanting my death over Tweet's at that point.
I still think that Frogster's interpretation of my earlier scumread on him as "vindictive" is more likely to come from town, and it felt weirdly personal in a way that seemed a lot more intense and less dilute than the game I've played with Frogster-scum.
The responses to me in 8082 and 8083 actually give me the impression of real thought behind his read on me and I think that if scum-Frogster had successfully fabricated that sort of thought process, then he would have just come out with it straight away instead of the initial 8078

Shea remains a very real possibility as scum. My earlier strong townread from 3333 has definitely faded with time due to... I suppose.... less of an impression of Shea needing to have impact on the game and more an impression of Shea complaining about scumreading the scum but not being listened to, which I consider to be less unlikely to be tried as a scum tactic. But the play and the progression still all feels a bit too messy for scum. I think there would be less foot-in-mouth moments as scum. If Shea is scum they've done a pretty good job of appearing uninformed, but I think his play indicates that Shea is, most likely, not informed.

I have come to the opinion that fire is scum. Today I've kept coming around to the feeling that the push on me Day 2 was disingenuous, and the progression from cautiously townreading me to me being probscum (and also possibly scum with gamma) to then being off the table, felt more like scum trying to make a push and then abruptly backing off when it didn't work. It also felt more cautious than Frogster's later blatant attempts to get a wagon on me instead of Tweet, which I think fire as scum would have made sure to avoid. I don't think there's that much suspicious about fire honestly, but there is not at all that much reason to clear fire as town, and their play overall makes the most sense as scum, so I think that's where I want to go today.

This post is more general vibes than specific points due to having less time than I had anticipated. If needed I may go into more detail on my fire read, but I'm expecting that'll be the popular opinion in the end anyway.

[DeasVail]

redfire what are your reads rn?

prob most interested in looking for scum in dann, shea, SS, marci rn. a slight level below that would be xofelf and gamma

strongest TRs on ausuka, scamper, you. not quite as strong on datisi, hem, obscure, ydra, frog. then DV and GL are kinda weak townleans ig

i think thats everyone

okay this is funny
our strongest TRs line up but aside from that there's notable variance
I think I'll pencil in fire as town for this

right now I think this post is like one of the strongest points for fire!town

I know Ausuka disagrees

but it seems just like SO BAD. aren't you going to be more careful about town reading a buddy?

but this might be gamma specific so I'm going through Gamma's scum games to see if I can find a similar type of read on a buddy

I agree, but like you I'm at the point where I can think of reasons for townreading everyone, and I just think the stuff supporting fire-town is the least clearing.

[DeasVail]

The more I read gammas iso the more I don't think fireisred makes a lot of sense with gamma buddy.

Or at the very least if they are buddies gamma played extremely different towards fireisred than she did with all her other buddies.

Are there any examples of why you think this?

[DeasVail]

The more I read gammas iso the more I don't think fireisred makes a lot of sense with gamma buddy.

Or at the very least if they are buddies gamma played extremely different towards fireisred than she did with all her other buddies.

Are there any examples of why you think this?

The more I read gammas iso the more I don't think fireisred makes a lot of sense with gamma buddy.

Or at the very least if they are buddies gamma played extremely different towards fireisred than she did with all her other buddies.

Are there any examples of why you think this?

I already posted them.

Your post implied that there was more. “The more I read gammas iso” etc

[DeasVail]

Also I think I’m ready to vote fire? But that would be l-1 so if anyone has things they want to look at more let me know. I do see that Dann is planning to re-look at frog

[DeasVail]

Also shea is your uncertainty on fire enough to unvote or not really?

[DeasVail]

Also shea is your uncertainty on fire enough to unvote or not really?

I don't really have a better idea.

Fair

[DeasVail]

Did frog get hammered?

[DeasVail]

I'm going to steamroll you into the dirt scum!tisi, I want to have your skull embedded in my throne.

damn, this was a good quote

anyway

i went to check frogs's behaviour in bunnies when he was getting pushed, and hm. in that game, his behaviour was much more centered around "x y and z are scum! this is why they are scum! please listen to me you fucking idiots!" while his behaviour here is more like "these cases of me are utter shit! you're town but i am gonna be spending so much time making fun of the cases against me!"

do i have strong conclusions here? not exactly. sample size 1 etc etc. but i wanna see frogs answer my q in 8417.

Sorry, I should check this myself but what was frog in bunnies

[DeasVail]

Ugh, I don’t really think frog is scum but I could be wrong I guess

What do people think of the vote on me though. It is so provocative to be targeting his most likely ally like that

[DeasVail]

Like I could have so easily been like omgus HAMMER FROG

[DeasVail]

It is so provocative to be targeting his most likely ally like that

I mean everything he's posted has been provactive

it's definitely not out of style

I more mean that my experience of Frogster-scum is one where he is less inclined to piss off people whose votes he needs, but I agree that provocative is not a reason to townread him

[DeasVail]

VOTE: fireisredsir

[DeasVail]

I don't think Guilty Lion's reasons to town read Fire are very good because I don't understand what GL actually expects scum!fire to do differently in this situation. Hard push both Frogster and GL as scum after CSF flips scum? That doesn't really make sense. Fire just needs to leave the door open to go back to suspecting GL later and all he has to do is town flip Frogster to do that. There's only one scum left (or at least there better be), so pushing two people when you want one person to help you this phase seems counterintuitive for scum.

I guess it's less that fireisred reversed tack once CSF was outed and more that he wrote an enormous case on me that he would know has an expiry date in the first place. Like CSF was in full anti-spew mode from the get, why go through the effort of pretending (or actually) rereading the entire game and write an enormous narrative for a fabricated scumread that you're willing to drop at a moment's notice. it's just not intuitive to me as what scum would do

it's possible that you're right. but on an instinctual level it just doesn't align with how I feel scum would play. I think scum would be generally more prone to enacting their long term agenda contingent on CSF going down, not setting up a gameplan that they'd then immediately have to scrap

I think it's not out of the question for scum to do that sort of thing. It has the advantage of looking like townie effort (plus there was already some amount of suspicion around fire's reread not being townie enough), plus I don't think it's so much of a stretch for fire-scum to think "what would I do if I didn't know that CSF was scum?"

As much as frog is frog, I think that his talk of how he wouldn't be this creative as scum is... probably true?

[DeasVail]

Like I guess the whole point of scumplay is to not

look

agenda-driven and while often good townplay is about seeing through that, I trust fire as scum to be able to do things here and there that look like they do not have an agenda.
With fire I am picking at straws, but there also aren't that many straws!

[DeasVail]

Also re: Ausuka's suspicion on me etc. I'm not sure that Obscure's push on me is /that/ clearing. I feel like CSF trying to vote me instead of Tweet is probably more convincing, or even the me-Menalque interactions, but whatever people use is cool I guess.

I guess also as scum here I would probably be more performative about solving which is what I would think people would expect me to do (for example, like the most recent team mafia), but I unfortunately don't feel as confident about the remaining scum here.

[DeasVail]

Ugh what is happening

I think I probably agree with Ausuka though?

Will read up in a bit

[DeasVail]

VOTE: Frogsterking

I still think Frogster more likely flips town than scum, but I'm not sure enough of that to let things continue as they are.

[DeasVail]

if the game ends I will look like such an idiot

I don't think so. I think if Frogster is scum he played in a very confusing way

[DeasVail]

I also still think it’s fire

[DeasVail]

The stakes do not quite feel high enough, nor is the game whittled down enough for me to go into ultra solvey mode. I really am at the point where I feel like S_S is a good enough elim.

now would be a good time

VOTE: fireisredsir

[DeasVail]

I think the way that fire is pushing me is quite clearly a performance and I'm happy with eliminating fire whenever.

[DeasVail]

I think that considering me as scum is honestly quite reasonable and I was surprised by the strength of the masonry's townread on me, but the way that fireisred approached frogster and now me appears more focused on how fire will look than on actually working out who the last scum is.

The compilation of quoted me-posts is more aligned with scum looking for material to post about and build a scumread out of than town working things out. The "a-ha! It's DV!" component feels conveniently timed because none of those thoughts from fire are really.... new thoughts. When I made the "unless people think I'm scum with Tweet" post, fire was the first to point out that I still could be, as if fire was saving the push on me for when the masonry was no longer around to shoot it down.
Recent things such as the caps post that concerned Ausuka and "get outta here ur dead" seem like fake attempts to appear 'loose' and casual because they are not at all consistent with how fire had been playing before. Obviously fire's joking, but I just don't believe based on earlier posts that fire would think to make those posts. It screams to me of trying something new, which is what fire as scum needs to do here in order to survive.

[DeasVail]

he does vote scum a decent amount but it doesn't feel like it's necessarily in an uninformed way to me

like he has gamma as his designated correct scumread alongside 2 or 3 other town, and mostly pushes the town except for when it feels like he needs to be on a building gamma wagon. then once tweet replaces in he kinda goes all in on the push, which i wouldn't be surprised if tweet said to bus her

he joins the hem wagon briefly when it seems inevitable but then hops back off p quickly

he does exactly the same to mena

he votes csf once she's outed, obviously

the votes aren't town pushing for the elimination of people that they think are scum. they're positional votes, all of them

also ignoring the fact that you could say this about most town players and their votes, just pretending that they're doing it as scum instead of as town

like it's presented as a reason to scumread me but... someone could just as easily be flitting between town and scum wagons as town?

For example:

"

he joins the hem wagon briefly when it seems inevitable but then hops back off p quickly

"

everyone hopped off the hem wagon. I won't claim credit for scumreading hem but this is just added material to make me sound bad that is not actually considering what my alignment is likely to be

[DeasVail]

Spoiler: hem vote/unvote

HEM, please claim

no

VOTE: humaneatingmonkey

did you just hammer

i doubt it

also i need to go

UNVOTE: humaneatingmonkey

okay

ill be back i really need to get off this site

if what i did was 2 anti-town 4 everyone then i guess that's my bad i just wanted to be part of this game

like dv framing this as equivalent to everyone else hopping off hem after he claimed is just shady af

That’s not what I’m doing. I’m saying that I don’t get why you’re using it as a point against me. Like it doesn’t make sense

[DeasVail]

why does he hop off there as scum?

idk tbh, show that he's willing to vote there but not actually want to leave his vote there while he's gone from the thread?

like you could argue he'd want to leave it there if he knew hem was going to claim at some point but maybe that wasn't the plan yet, or maybe they knew that hem was going to have to leave thread too, or maybe he thought when he voted that hem was ready to claim and he actually didn't want to yet

but i think it's a weird interaction to come from town so

I think the obvious explanation here is that I wanted hem to claim but wasn’t comfortable leaving it in hammer range while I was away for an extended period of time?

How is that weird?

[DeasVail]

Looking back over end of day 2, Cat and Frog were the most vocal about exploring options other than tweet. Cat actually voted for me, which I think is much more likely from town because tweet was likely being eliminated at that stage and it’s just not a good look. Frog is reasonably likely to be town too because of the messy way in which (from an external perspective) he was very blatantly trying to make something else happen, but I am less certain on Frog-town than Cat-town because scum-Frog may have felt encouraged by town-Cat pushing for something else to happen.

I think that TSQ’s play end of D2 is scummy in a vacuum, but I’m not sure if it changes my overall read of them.

It’s also worthwhile considering the possibility that this was just a situation with low scum presence. S_S had earlier seemed to be encouraging the idea of a wagon on me without wanting to commit to it himself and while I probably think obscure is less likely scum than S_S, it is definitely possible.

Dease, I'm confused why Cat is even being considered in 5732.

I don’t take anything for granted

also this post expressing a read on csf is weird to make when everyone else is treating csf as conftown

(shoutout to frog for calling that out, sorry buddy)

I skimmed over this but I was rereading and this actually feels like a good point

DV why were you making a read on CSF here? I was treating her as mech town and I'm pretty sure everyone else was doing the same thing?

I agree that this looks scummy and I honestly don’t know.

[DeasVail]

People I am considering as scum currently:

Juice

,

HEM

,

Aristeia

,

Firebringer

,

Gamma

, GuiltyLion,

Skitter

,

VP Baltar

But I don't feel strongly enough about any of them right in this moment to make a proper (or even a fake) push.

[Ausuka,

scamper

,

xofelf

,

ydrasse

]
[

HEM

,

Aristeia

, fireisred,

obscure

, relly]
[

Datisi

, Dannflor,

Firebringer

]
[Nero Cain,

VP Baltar

, GuiltyLion,

Frogsterking

]
[

Gamma

,

Marci

,

Conman

]

DV I'd like to hear more about your reads on HEM and obscure from day 1 and how they changed? I know it was a long time ago but shrug

Obscure was someone who I was townreading for most of the time he was in the game because of generally townie energy and then his tunnel on me, which felt more like town to me. Menalque was the main reason for my change in read.
During most of day 1 I didn’t really see what others were to townread HEM but I remember thinking they were more town later and having doubts about them being scum when the wagon was a thing. Then I thought that their refusal to claim was scummy.

[DeasVail]

Looking back over end of day 2, Cat and Frog were the most vocal about exploring options other than tweet. Cat actually voted for me, which I think is much more likely from town because tweet was likely being eliminated at that stage and it’s just not a good look. Frog is reasonably likely to be town too because of the messy way in which (from an external perspective) he was very blatantly trying to make something else happen, but I am less certain on Frog-town than Cat-town because scum-Frog may have felt encouraged by town-Cat pushing for something else to happen.

I think that TSQ’s play end of D2 is scummy in a vacuum, but I’m not sure if it changes my overall read of them.

It’s also worthwhile considering the possibility that this was just a situation with low scum presence. S_S had earlier seemed to be encouraging the idea of a wagon on me without wanting to commit to it himself and while I probably think obscure is less likely scum than S_S, it is definitely possible.

Dease, I'm confused why Cat is even being considered in 5732.

I don’t take anything for granted

also this post expressing a read on csf is weird to make when everyone else is treating csf as conftown

(shoutout to frog for calling that out, sorry buddy)

I skimmed over this but I was rereading and this actually feels like a good point

DV why were you making a read on CSF here? I was treating her as mech town and I'm pretty sure everyone else was doing the same thing?

I agree that this looks scummy and I honestly don’t know.

I think at the time I was looking at responses to the MT wagon and me as a potential alternative at the time and just reading people’s responses to that. I do think it’s weird that CSF as scum tried to get me wagoned when MT was not surviving, but yeah, why I wasn’t just like “oh CSF is town” is something I don’t really know and I realise it makes me look like I was informed but I promise I wasn’t?

[DeasVail]

I also don’t really share fire’s sentiment of “lim us both” because if fire is not scum then something is very wrong and would require quite serious reevaluation.

I do think it’s fire though

[DeasVail]

I understand being down on yourself for having bad reads or not being obv town enough or some other reason

I understand not wanting to fight your own elimination if you think the game isn't that hard anyway

to an extent

but I still think fire is just all *too* willing to let himself be eliminated and I can't shake the feeling he is trying to look town more than he actually believes that its fine if he goes here

I had the same feeling last day phase and I feel like he should have at least a twinge more urgency to not be eliminated now that we're one day closer to lylo and... I don't see it

This is what I meant by it seeming like a performance. Fire is *saying* that we can eliminate them but the way they are going about the posts on me imo betrays that they are actually angling for getting me eliminated instead

[DeasVail]

idk i should go to bed

sorry for bringing it up i didn't want to go into that bc i knew it would not be received well but it is part of my read so whatever

I obviously don’t think you’re scum Titus, but to be completely honest I’m a bit surprised in you voting me because you’re probably the only person here that has played with scum-me. What has led you to think that this is it?

[DeasVail]

Sorry I didn’t mean to quote the fire post

[DeasVail]

Can we take an approach of:

Fire is okay with getting eliminated
I am not

And eliminate fire?

[DeasVail]

The stakes do not quite feel high enough, nor is the game whittled down enough for me to go into ultra solvey mode. I really am at the point where I feel like S_S is a good enough elim.

now would be a good time

Also this post feels especially like meaningless snark what with fire’s changed tune of “I was tunnelled on Frogster and that was wrong” when Day 5 I had put quite a bit of thought into my reads including a lot of consideration into my Frogster townread.

PEdit:

Re: Dannflor I did have the thought that if I were solo scum here needing to survive to the end, I would be wanting to appear as pure and collaborative and pro-town as possible. Which has caused me slight paranoia, but I don’t pick up on Dannflor’s efforts being manipulative as I find fire’s to be.

PEdit:

I do not, and it was a bit tongue-in-cheek, but if it gets Fire eliminated…

[DeasVail]

I will be going through every slot in depth over the next few days

[DeasVail]

I will be going through every slot in depth over the next few days

do you have any initial hot takes / gut feelings on who you think is mafia?

I don’t

[DeasVail]

I thought it was fire and it not being Fire leaves me lost and unsure.

[DeasVail]

ugh I promise it's not me

I know that doesn't mean anything, but y'know

[DeasVail]

I'm skim re-reading the game. I haven't decided what I think of the whole Titus deal yet, but it's probably scum keeping Titus alive deliberately to create paranoia. Other than that EVERYONE is an option. I do kind of want to go over the datisi/scamper re-read later but will form my own thoughts first.

--

Datisi suspicion:

This is a vaguely interesting part of the early game!

Page 12: HEM and Ausuka are kind of double-teaming town-Datisi here which in my mind means Ausuka is slightly more likely to be town.

383: Relly also being like "YEAH GO HEM VOTE DATISI" - Much more enthusiastically townreading HEM than Ausuka for pushing Datisi, which I was mildly townreading but suddenly backing off in 571 was a bit... hrmm after the enthusiasm. Not sure.

Page 27: Balter-Ausuka reactions (on Ausuka's end) just

feeeeel

real.

1080 is mildly +town from GL. But I think Ausuka NOT voting VPB and instead going with Datisi (who from Ausuka-scum's perspective is mostly being suspected by scum), is even more town because with Ausuka as scum it would just seem incredibly unlikely to scum that Datisi would seriously get mis-eliminated there.
Hmm.. not sure about the +town for GL -- too much talk of how he would join a VPB wagon "if it got going"

I can't really townread the vote on VPB from GL in 1449 because if scum with VPB then he was already caught out by Datisi.

Also on reflection it was interesting that scum didn't really bite on the Eiralox suspicion despite it seeming town-led. Maybe GL-scum?

--

Okay leaving it at page 60 for tonight. I'm pretty sure there was later stuff from GL that led to my townread on him so my early-game suspicions could be all for naught. My main thought so far is that Ausuka is most likely to be town.

PEdit: Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[DeasVail]

I didn't come to a decision either way on the skitter-GL stuff. In the end I don't think it ruled anything out, but also didn't rule anything in.

PEdit: Skitter really wasn't very town though!

[DeasVail]

ConManMick onward:

I'm quite sure this has been mentioned before, but 1508 is a little wild from a buddy after CMM made a pretty bad-looking entrance... and then I see that later Relly does.... nothing with the read. ahhh, I'm not sure that I can really interpret it either way.

2107 from Obscure is probably the strongest point against GL-scum that I've found.

--

Okay I'm going to need to stop at page 100 tonight. I didn't get much time! There wasn't really all that much that I found significant 60-100, except that I feel lost and confused.

[DeasVail]

I haven't re-read too much more of the game yet, but I've come to the decision that my previous reasons for townreading GL were... not that good. It's still at the point where both the Shea-slot and GuiltyLion overall appear townier than not, but I think they are more likely scum than Ausuka and I don't really want to think about Titus

[DeasVail]

I think I granted too much significance to VP Baltar pushing for GuiltyLion Day 1. I really felt as if VPB was trying to stir up paranoia on GL at the time, but going over everything I think it was obvious that GL was an unrealistic elimination target for that day, especially with another of GL's suspectors (skitter) also having been scum.

[DeasVail]

So obscure's treatment of GL is kind of weird

He starts off by saying GL feels town and he doesn't know how to substantiate it, and without justifying further it turns into a hard townread by the middle of D1?

I ~think~ it feels more like TMI than partnery weird, though. Because like, I think scum are often self conscious about how they treat their partners? And this wasn't exactly subtle.

Yeah that’s my worry from Day 1. There was a period where Obscure was barely posting and popped in to say GUILTYLION IS TOWN I WILL DEFEND THEM (paraphrased and slightly exaggerated), which seems weird to so blatantly defend a buddy who doesn’t even need defending.

I still want to read beyond Day 1 and see if I glean anything (unfortunately have been somewhat distracted by other things) but I am struggling at the moment because neither GL nor Shea jump out as scum to me and in the back of my mind I can’t help but be aware that I don’t have anything that town-clearing about me

[DeasVail]

I very seriously believe this might point to Shea as scum

Who did status replace?

[DeasVail]

also DV, assuming you are town:

I also am more worried about deasvail the more he continues to just exist on the periphery.

YES

are they still here? This was my scumread yesterday I felt good about.

Dan and Deas I could both see as scum.

is this scum coordinating together? this kinda feels to me more like scum reacting to and amplifying a townpost. I guess it's not impossible scum would see a buddy pushing on a townie and give them a +1 but vibewise I feel like that's less likely. Like the enthusiastic "YES" feels like it's meant more to buddy TSQ in my mind

I did see this post as well, but given the buddying aspect to this is less strong than Obscure's buddying with you, it becomes less significant. Normally I would somewhat townread Shea because of that post about Obscure, but everyone here would normally be a townread for me based on their play and flipped scum.

[DeasVail]

Something_Smart (6): GuiltyLion, Frogsterking, scamper, fireisredsir, Ydrasse, humaneatingmonkey
obscure (3): Dannflor, Thestatusquo, Ausuka
Thestatusquo (2): Gamma Emerald, Datisi
DeasVail (1): obscure
marcistar (1): DeasVail
Dannflor (1): Nero Cain
Not voting (3): Something_Smart, marcistar, Enchant
Day 1 will end in (expired on 2022-09-18 20:44:00)
Mod notes: this was right near my school

who is S_S in for? i'll ISO them first.

@DV he also did this for town

Ahhh, thank you. I hadn't gotten to this post yet. And yeah you were right that I was thinking it was Obscure trying to dumbtell.

Now knowing that Obscure was scum, we get the idea that his style of play was to deliberately look uninformed, to the point of excess. But yeah, I don't think my point about that post on Shea is that significant if he did it with Shea too

[DeasVail]

I don't think its possible to see how I pushed obscure constantly to the front out of the shadows and come to the conclusion I was buddies with them. Like yeah bussing exists but why in the world would I make completely novel attacks on the newness of a player being faked as an attempt to bus my buddy who was under zero pressure?

I think there are lots of things about your play that I have trouble seeing from scum, but this is not really one of them. It's the sort of attack that at worst makes you look better if Obscure is flipped, and most likely causes town to adopt a "protect the newbie" mindset.

PEdit: I found it weird as well, but why as scum do you think GL is trying to convince me that you're town?

[DeasVail]

sorry i know this isn't actually game relevant but i'm trying to read d1 and my brain absolutely cannot handle datisi's current avatar

it feels wrong, like, on a fundamental level to me

I was actually going to make a post like this as well hah. I liked the letter one better.

[DeasVail]

Selected reactions to the HEM push by scamper during Day 2:

so i reiterate again: if anyone has actual good reason to townread hem beyond him posting a lot, speak up, otherwise i want u to vote hem

I will reread HEM and get back to you on this, I have him shelved as an early townread but I do not like his recent spat with you and I agree he's felt fairly detached today

I could imagine the HEM-VPB conflicts as distancing. Initial friction 1167, 1171, and then the argument over HEM's readslist (1222, 1262, 1267, 1279, 1281, 1282, 1283, 1284, 1286, 1303). there's a lot of sass and intensity in how they fight with each other but it doesn't seem to actually amount to strong scumreads or votes on each other. the way they talk to each other mainly seems to serve the purpose of establishing an argument between the two more than anything else.

VOTE: Dannflor

I have reconsidered and I like this actually

the S_S progression was kinda ??? and i don't really buy that he went from, like, 'no compelling reason to vote ss' to doing it so quickly. this made me read his iso and i remembered i do not like his opening posts, particularly his gl and marci pushes

the obscure push is like... fine and not really the reason i'm voting him but i don't think it's really town indicative because like it is pretty easy

hem is a slot im just 'meh' on because i feel like i havent read much of his posts in ages. i guess i can iso him later

obscure has a superpower to start posting like the moment they become a topic of interest

much to think about

I was just thinking this.

For someone who claims to be having trouble keeping up with the thread they sure do seem to be able to immediately post every time someone says something about them.

like idk they're saying they're disengaged and not checking in that much and are behind but I think this is like the third time they've popped up IMMEDIATELY to respond when someone mentioned their name.

Like its not that talking about yourself is that big of a tell when you're engaged, its that the immediacy of the response makes me thinking they're much more here and reading than they're letting on and I can't think of a good reason why town would be approaching the game that way.

If obscure is scum I think they're buddies with datisi. There have been multiple times when datisi has jumped into the thread right as pressure was beginning to shift to obscure to ask some unrelated pointed questions that never went anywhere.

VOTE: humaneatingmonkey

I'm down to see where this goes. I'm losing confidence in the major wagons and looking at HEM/VPB associatives they look scummy to me. and I trust scamper, and HEM's interactions with him today felt really bad faith

I could imagine the HEM-VPB conflicts as distancing. Initial friction 1167, 1171, and then the argument over HEM's readslist (1222, 1262, 1267, 1279, 1281, 1282, 1283, 1284, 1286, 1303). there's a lot of sass and intensity in how they fight with each other but it doesn't seem to actually amount to strong scumreads or votes on each other. the way they talk to each other mainly seems to serve the purpose of establishing an argument between the two more than anything else.

want to signal boost my own post again and add further that it reminds me of how I like to distance as scum. if you throw in a lot of intensity, saying things like

> "is that the surface level reads i should expect from you from now on"
or
> "[your readslist has] Zero scum, or anything generally that doesn't have the flavor of lukewarm milk. It's a pointless list to make other than it looks like effort"

it makes people feel like you're unaligned because of the sass despite the fact that you're not actually solving each other. They ask a lot of pointed questions back and forth but it doesn't vibe to me like either side had a real agenda to what they were doing (VPB - don't see him trying to really push HEM for lim or rebuff a townie on the right track, HEM - don't see him trying to solve VPB).

IDK this hem counter wagon springing up right as I'm pushing here is incredibly interesting and I think hem and obscure are good flips for that reason whereas I think the SS wagon just felt like whatever to me in terms of the stances people were actually taking.

GuiltyLion actually looks pretty good. Really proactively looked at HEM's posts and helped make the wagon happen.

[DeasVail]

Ausuka's reaction to the HEM wagon is particularly not-great, but possibly too bad to be from scum with HEM.

Imo Shea is probably most suspicious from the HEM wagon. Their presence on the wagon feels as if it's more out of obligation than anything else.

[DeasVail]

I'm glad I've reached too bad to be scum levels

I mostly mean that there’s a demoralised aspect to your posting and avoidance of the HEM wagon at the time that could be reflective of actual scum feelings, but it’s more likely that scum would not let those actual feelings show

[DeasVail]

VOTE: obscure

I'm still not feeling great about this and still need to re-ISO DV, I am taking a train to Portland shortly and will try to do a bit of reading during that, but looking at wagon comp I still like this option much better than DV. MT wagon seems ok but I haven't found the courage to re-evaluate my Gamma townread yet

this is also town from GL (this post happens as MT is being scummy and getting run up)

[DeasVail]

I haven't finished my reread yet but I feel myself settling on Shea.

Pages 190-200 in particular were what turned me around to it. (This is mostly so that I remember where I need to look when I post more about it later)

I will be compiling my thoughts in the most parsible way that I can over the next few days, but I think it would be difficult for the balance to tip in anyone else's favour.

(With where my thoughts are at rn, I'd probably eliminate Titus over Ausuka or GL, but I must admit I still haven't thought that hard about the Titus slot)

[DeasVail]

Yeah this progression doesn't feel remotely real.

What about it does not feel real to you?

[DeasVail]

Glad you were able to come to the conclusion that you were always going to though.

Also would be interested to know if you think I’m wrong on any of my townreads

[DeasVail]

I have work today but hopefully will be able to have my thoughts on TSQ up within the next 12 hours depending on how busy things get. I want to do my best to explain it right because TSQ was at one stage my strongest townread and for what I still don’t think were bad reasons, so it’s a tricky read!

[DeasVail]

My best explanation was that Nero thought that there could be 3 modified vigs?

Iirc HEM/CSF hadn’t fully claimed by the time that Nero replaced out.

Also not sure why as an SK you wouldn’t just shoot every night.

And last I don’t think it would be that hard for Titus to look town here if they wanted to?

[DeasVail]

And last I don’t think it would be that hard for Titus to look town here if they wanted to?

I am having a hopefully brief medical issue. I have to prioritize work first.

Apologies, what I meant was that if you were scum, you would probably be able to look more town than you have looked, so I didn't think that was necessarily alignment-relevant.

[DeasVail]

Okay

So

Shea's play is obviously very loud, which is no big deal. And Shea throughout the game has expressed a lot of suspicion on flipped scum, in a way that in hindsight (and on iso) looks unnecessary and anti-scum. BUT, I don't actually think these are real reads, because reading through the game and paying attention to what Shea's reads

should

be and how they respond to events in the moment, there's a mismatch. Yes, Shea will loudly proclaim post scumflip that they suspected scum when other people weren't, which is true. But where was Shea when it mattered?

--

Progression on Obscure

It starts off pretty reasonable. We have 3687 which is expressing interest when specifically asked by Dann, to a vote in 3701. And then we get Shea really thinking that Obscure is scum (4006, 4021.
Shea responds to the HEM wagon that then forms with 4023 (essentially saying that both HEM and Obscure are good votes) and after an unofficial vote count from Dann in 4076 which shows HEM at 6 votes (likely all from town), Shea joins the HEM wagon.

After that Obscure really drops off the radar for Shea, despite the previously expressed confidence in the Obscure read (and as described by Shea, HEM, who they should think is town at this point, having popped up as a counterwagon to the Obscure wagon that Shea was pushing), and it's not entirely clear why Obscure becomes less of a townread for Shea. Indeed, there is 4731 and 4768, which are along a similar line of thought to when Shea was convinced that Obscure was scum, but the reason why page 191 onward is significant is that shortly after 4768 from Shea, there begins to actually be a bit of momentum on Obscure. GL votes Obscure on page 192 and there's talk of whether to wagon Obscure or get HEM to vig Obscure, but there's a clear change from Shea now that HEM is on borrowed time.

It almost seems like Shea will go for anything BUT scum.

4827, 4831, 4923, 4926

For someone who was all about Obscure being scum before, without much evidence of new thought to justify thinking Obscure town, this is lots of other people that Shea is wanting to wagon that are.... not Obscure.

Yes, it's messy, but this point in time would have looked DISASTROUS for scum. HEM has committed to a claim he can't back up. Obscure and Gamma both absent and looking in danger of being the elimination during the time that HEM's claim was supposed to buy. Scum gonna be freaking out there I think.

Shea's scumread on Obscure becomes a further distant memory in posts such as 5203, and 5220 (although putting the onus of fire-suspicion on Ausuka is a bit yuck)

--

Progression on Gamma/Tweet

Again, it starts off feeling as if there's real suspicion on the gamma slot. From a vote in 2726, Shea sinks their teeth into it in 2790. More expression of strength of scumread in 2953 and 2962. Cool, so Shea wants us to know that they suspect Gamma, nothing wrong with that. Seriously, there's a lot of posts about how Gamma is scum. Shea wasn't kidding! But this is when people aren't suspecting Gamma.

3853 is interesting in how it dismisses Gamma as "not happening" despite both me and Nero having fairly frequently also expressed scumreads on Gamma.
4080 really building up how much other people are townreading Gamma and how bad this is.

BUT

what even is 4279? Someone (Nero) actually votes Gamma and instead of a reaction of "finally", it's "nero ends up tunnelling random townies a lot" ??? That's not the reaction of someone who truly scumreads Gamma, right?

We've also already seen from my obscure section that Shea was not that interested in Gamma as an alternative to HEM when it came down to it, and when MT replaces in and people start suspecting the slot, Shea is weirdly... not a part of it. The reaction in 5328 just doesn't ring true when there were actually people suspecting Gamma.


Also bonus point but is 4837 tmi?


--

Overall, I think there's a clear increased reluctance from Shea to bus their buddies once they realise that their team is dying all around them. It was all fun and games before HEM was stuck with a claim they were going to get caught out on and Gamma/Obscure were potential alternatives.

I think the shift from being willing to vote Gamma/Obscure to being highly reluctant to vote either of them is actually quite clear once you realise it's there.

[DeasVail]

Like I definitely agree the progression is weird but I guess I don't see the motivation

That's the tricky part for me too. I wouldn't characterise it as a refusal to bus necessarily, because Shea does at least sort of vote MT, but the main thing for me is that the lack of interest in obscure/gamma when they are actually viable wagons makes me believe that the earlier STRONG SUSPICION wasn't actually real.

As for motivation, I don't know. Is it feeling self-conscious about how to join a wagon on a buddy when it's not Shea shouting into the wind? Is it Shea realising that they're the only scum member with real staying power and deciding that they probably shouldn't be an extra number against their remaining team members? I'm really not sure.

[DeasVail]

Honestly there could have even been some big argument in the scum PT about the bussing thing. I feel like there are possibilities there.

[DeasVail]

Thinking more about it, there could also be hope that the replacements would breathe life into the slots. Like, Eiralox was looking in a pretty bad spot but Dann turned that slot around. Theoretically MT and especially Mena could have made a real difference. They just... didn't.

[DeasVail]

like imo both MT and Mena were more scummy than their predecessors

[DeasVail]

Titus, I think that out-of-context VCA is more likely to be flawed in this game because of the less frequent vote counts and also gamma (and particularly obscure) often being absent and not here to respond to wagon developments etc.

In regards to Shea, I don’t think they are CLEARLY scum based on their play and I don’t think relly is clearly scum either, and I wouldn’t be able to fully understand why Shea did everything they did as scum here, but I’m reasonably confident of them being scum here. In large part because I don’t think it’s Ausuka, GL or Titus. But also that with the reads they claimed to have, I don’t think they behaved as I would expect town to at certain points in the game.

Going into this day, I expected that I would more likely than not be eliminated, and that is not a terrible outcome, but to be completely honest I don’t trust town to lim Shea the next day. (This being partly because I don’t understand Titus’ approach to this game and have no idea what she’ll do, and partly because I think Shea has been very good at responding to suspicion on them this game)

[DeasVail]

Also GL I’m not really sure what response you’re expecting from Shea, but I would be eager to discuss at whatever point you feel motivated to

[DeasVail]

Especially after MT comes in and does actual fuck all you think I would hold back as scum? I don't believe that you believe that to be quite honest and if you scoured my iso and this is the best you came up with I'm kind of not sure why we haven't seen you do a similar thing for GL and Ausuka.

I had presented some initial reasons why I thought Ausuka and GL were town and asked what you thought of those reasons but you didn’t respond so I haven’t said more but I can elaborate more if it would be of interest to you. I haven’t so far had any reason to believe it would be though

[DeasVail]

Also “scoured the game and this is the best I came up with”, as much as Shea is saying it to make me sound bad, is actually an accurate description. Like, we’re at the point where everyone we thought was the last scum was actually town, and so scouring and coming up with whatever we can that might point to the last scum is exactly what needs to be done here

[DeasVail]

1) So the case against me basically boils down to the fact that I have uncertainty on gamma and obscure, which is uhhh, maybe because I was uncertain? Because I don't know their alignment. If anything these are points for me being town rather than scum. As scum I would almost certainly have a much cleaner progression on my buddies than this, and the fact that I don't is just not an argument for scum motivation. If the claim is that I was bussing my buddies then why would I have not just bussed my buddies and got the town credit for it? There's no reason for me as scum to play the game like this.

2) Saying that I'm willing to go for anyone but scum is a bit rich here considering your claim is that I transitioned off my one buddy (obscure) to vote for my other buddy (HEM) in your world view. So your claiming that I was not willing to bus my buddy so I joined a counter wagon on a different buddy? I would almost certainly not deliberately play this way as scum and I doubt you would either. This point doesn't seem genuine.

3) I think your case includes a lot of very selective reading of context. I.E. both Obscure and Gamma were extreme lurkers who eventually got replaced. To say that I went away from them to focus on other things actually happening in the thread is true, and that's because by and large I just don't like limming lurkers and get distracted by the game that is actually happening. Is that a flaw in my play? Maybe? Does that mean I sometimes get snowed by N_M when he rolls scum? Absolutely. But its just primarily not where my focus ever is and I think if you read some town games of mine you'd find that this is pretty consistent. In fact, and now I'm going to have to stop doing this because I'm demonstrating awareness of it, but I think that me continuing to pressure scum slots that are actively lurking is way more likely to come from scum me than town me.

@Ausuka. I don't know. I think Deas kind of is the most obvious scum candidate but I keep getting distracted by the n_m weirdness. I think any of the three of you are capable of playing this game as scum and I feel pretty useless because I'm not particularly good at combing through past interactions with a comb in order to tease out possible informed comments and I've now been wrong two days in a row so I don't really have a good sense of where I'm at because since I think everyone else is town (though Deas' case on me makes me think he's likely scum who is forced to make this play) the poe from my pov is by necessity everyone.

If I were forced to kingmake this day I'd pick deas but I do not have any high level of confidence in that.

I’m not interested in a lengthy back-and-forth wall war, but

Re: 1) my post points to multiple points where you said you were certain or close to it

Re: 2) the “anything but scum” part of my post was referencing after the HEM wagon collapsed and alternatives being discussed, with the following linked posts as evidence

Re: 3) I specifically mention the context in my post and my read of the situation is based on the read of the game rather than your iso in isolation. Also one of your main expressed problems with Obscure was him disappearing when not under pressure

[DeasVail]

In response to Shea commenting on me not posting in-depth town cases on GL and Ausuka:
- I was paying just as much attention to GL and Ausuka posts in the re-read as I was to Shea’s posts. The reason why I posted the most concerning things about Shea (to me) is because explaining why I think Shea might be scum is the priority over convincing Ausuka and GL that they are town.
There is less actual reason for me to post in-depth about my reasons for townreading Ausuka and GL. I’m at work currently and haven’t specifically checked if this was requested of me but can do it if needed?

Also GL I’m not really sure what response you’re expecting from Shea, but I would be eager to discuss at whatever point you feel motivated to

alright so now that we got a response from Shea, my main source of doubt with the shifts on Obscure & Gamma that you pointed out was that I have noticed a pattern throughout the game of Shea voicing a lot of projected confidence in their reads that may not align with how confident those reads actually are. So when TSQ says something like this:

Honestly getting more pressure on obscure feeling like pulling teeth has me extremely convinced I'm right.

despite the word "extremely" being there, based on the summation of how they've talked about all their all of their reads this game (including ones on town as well), I am not sure if we should take Shea to

literally

mean "extremely". If Shea's expressed scumread on Obscure was more nebulous/unsure than they let on then the pattern you called out might be the behavior of town picking up a real signal but then getting distracted onto other suspects/targets.

I was waiting to see if Shea would say anything in this regard, that projected confidence in reads is not always actual confidence in reads, which they sort of indirectly did in point 1)? Like it's interesting Shea misunderstood you there, right? you were accusing them of specifically acting certain yet not behaving like they were certain, but Shea thought you were accusing them of simply

being

uncertain. I am not sure if Shea is intentionally manipulating/reframing the argument there, this is kind of an example of what I was talking about in 9034 about TSQ behaving "uninformed in a subtle way", like if scum!TSQ knows you are right here I feel like they'd address your point more directly.

let me know if that makes sense

Thanks GL, and that makes sense. I agree that projected confidence can come from town, and uncertainty on reads is not unexpected. But it has caused me to wonder whether the projected confidence could in and of itself be a way of playing as scum. To appear confident and self-assured is something that in general is more likely to be read as town.
And as much as Shea may be claiming to be more confident in reads than they are, I expect town to still have reads, and I was concerned that Shea is more comfortable scumreading Obscure and Gamma when not many other people are and just happens to not want to eliminate obscure or gamma anymore once they are in more danger (and after HEM is caught out in a claim he can’t back up). Yes, it is possible that town just happens to have this read trajectory, but from Shea’s posting at the time, I don’t actually see any evidence of a thought process or new posting from obscure/gamma at the time that would be likely to assuage town-Shea’s concerns, based on what Shea’s concerns with the slots were.

Like I’ve said before, earlier in the game I strongly thought that Shea was town and I don’t think my reasoning was necessarily bad. If Shea is scum, then they were playing in a way that I thought was strongly indicative of town, but rereading has given me the opportunity to go over things again, and I’m less convinced by Shea’s reads and read progression being real, particularly with the scum flips.

Ausuka and GuiltyLion both have standout moments throughout the game that in my opinion make them much less likely to be scum. Off the top of my head, things like Ausuka’s interactions with VPB and their very public cooperation with HEM on pushing Datisi feel particularly unaligned. Ausuka also takes more ownership of the fire push than what Shea does and so by comparison Ausuka comes out looking better from that situation.
GL showed support for the HEM wagon early as it was just beginning and provided more content for it. When HEM claimed vig, GL went straight to obscure, which completely goes against what scum would be aiming for in that situation.

[DeasVail]

VOTE: thestatusquo

I am still not sure but it's my best guess at this point.

I guess if deciding between me and Shea, I'd ask people to consider the differences in our play Day 7, Datisi/Scamper's thoughts and also the night kills (I think Dannflor fairly clearly read me as town from memory), but I am aware that Shea's direct interactions with flipped scum probably look less partnered than mine.

If I am eliminated here, don't be disheartened! I still think that town can win this. But what I'd ask would be for whoever is town to really consider everything. My read of the game has led me to believe Shea is scum, but I still get pangs of "what if it's GuiltyLion?" and "what if the Nero/Titus slot has somehow duped us all???". I haven't had pangs of "what if Ausuka's scum?" yet but maybe I should have those doubts! I don't know!!

I admit, the writing's been on the wall for most of this day phase and I am expecting to die here, but it's been real, it's been fun and I BELIEVE!

[DeasVail]

I hope you have a wonderful day GL!

Also I would make sure to self-hammer rather than have this go to no-elim tbh

[DeasVail]

It should be a hammer, yah.

DV, were you scum??

Unfortunately not

[DeasVail]

Really really

[DeasVail]

I crave that sweet sweet release

[DeasVail]

ty I will try

[DeasVail]

MAAAN

I hate this game it is causing me ANXIETY

I want to believe it's Titus cause tbh that's the only way this shit really makes sense to me

It's okay. I think that the thing to consider with tsq is that playing well as scum is successfully looking un-aligned with partners.

I am also suspicious of you to be completely honest! But I was trying to present more confidence in scum-tsq because that was the only potential alternative lim to me and I needed to be semi-confident in something.

But yeah, it's why I think that it's important to not take anything for granted and to really consider everything.

And in regards to my own lim, it's nbd. The nature of some of my interactions with flipped scum was unfortunate and I wasn't as on-point with my reads as I would have liked to be. I would have eliminated me too