Why avoid the wagon?
Mafia 108 - Mafia With The Quickness - over!
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Kmd4390 I lost a bet.
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He used it as a reason for avoiding the wagon. To me, this implies that he saw a wagon vote as a random vote and didn't want to do it. Yet his vote is as random as they come.Bogre wrote:Disliking random voting doesn't mean he wouldn't do it, KMD. ^KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Netopalis, why was your vote better than voting on the bandwagon?
The game started an hour ago. Why are you apologizing? And why restate a question already asked?Maemuki wrote:Sorry I'm late, I was doing a work. Stupid Natural Sciences teacher. I already had a 100%, what more do you want? [/rant]
Anyway.Vote: Annachie, 'cause you haven't posted yet. Lurker.
@ Netp, why is RQS > RVS?KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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I disagree. Well, to an extent. I don't think the player who "panics" is always the lynch. But poor play does often lead to being lynched Day 1.Netopalis wrote:I have a theory about Mafia. Essentially, Mafia is a game of information. Most information, when out in the open, assists town (Obviously, some of it assists mafia too, like the identities of power roles). In my opinion, the random vote stage generates false information. Experienced players will ignore votes coming out of the RVS, while inexperienced players will panic. This panic is read as scummy, and that leads to the lynch of the inexperienced player. This explains why D1 lynches are statistically worse than random.
This is starting to feel like a Marathon game lol. I kinda like it.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Did you feel like you were expected to be here for the game's start? If so, why?Maemuki wrote:
It's on my nature, I apologise for being 5 minutes late. So?The game started an hour ago. Why are you apologizing? And why restate a question already asked?
And that's because I didn't see SK's post.
Why not say so when you voted? You said no reason. And how is that any better than some kind of useful vote that we can actually talk about?Netopalis wrote: I voted Maemuki based on the generation of a random number selection of people not on the bandwagon. I chose not to follow the bandwagon for reasons described in the first paragraph of my previous post.
Well, you:Netopalis wrote: On what grounds? Some MD-style discussions? Many good players loathe random votes - most begrudgingly accept it, as evidenced by the number of threads in MD which attempt to find ways to get around the necessity of random votes in the early game.
-commented on the wagon, but avoided it
-random voted when you said you don't like random voting
-used the above as a reason for avoiding the wagon
-used a random number generater, but told us your vote had no reason
Mae:
-Seems to feel like she was expected to be here for the game's start (nervousness point=scum point)
I don't see a reason to elaborate on my town reads. Ok, posting this then finishing catching up.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Damn, lost my post. Let's see if I can remember what I had:
Something wrong with that?Maemuki wrote:
*claps slowly* Way to go - Saint is voting your town read and Haylen is voting with you. Bravo, bravo.I'm getting better. Page 2 and I have 4 pretty solid reads. Neto and Mae as scum. Haylen and Saint as town.
Sarcasm against your attacker is noted.
I disagree.Netopalis wrote:But you understand my point, I take it? That RVS is not a good predictor of who is scum?
I can see that, but only if Mae is town (or we have multiple anti-town factions).SaintKerrigan wrote: In other news,Unvote: Haylen. Vote: Netlava.Something about his post just rubbed me the wrong way...just kidding. My beef with Net is that he voted Maemuki for a very vague reason and for apologizing (obviously a nulltell). Feels opportunistic.
Not gonna lie, that's a weird thing to expect. That you'd have to be here right at the start. It actually makes sense though with your reasoning.Maemuki wrote: Well yeah. I'm known to be a lurker - if you didn't know that, you do now. I talked to Incog and he let me in as long as I didn't lurk. I thought it would be better if I was here for the start because of that.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Comments on what has happened so far?Glork wrote:WARNING: TANGENTIAL RANT AHEAD.
I do not wish this to become a distraction to finding scums in this game, but I have to get something off my chest regarding general mafia theory.
Your initial research is bullshit. I don't want you to do this in-game, because it will ultimately serve as a huge distraction to actually finding scum, but after this game I'm going to make a thread. In said thread, I want you to explain how your observation of RQS vs RVS constitutes a valid analysis of a game which has literally dozens (and possibly hundreds) of variables. Are you really naive enough to believe that RQS vs RVS is the sole (or even a primary) cause of victory in Mafia?Netopalils wrote:Unfortunately, there have not been enough games using the random question system to give a good statistical analysis. My initial research shows, though, that it has more often led to town victories. Most of the games that I have read in which the random question system leads to a mislynch are due to the town lynching the questioner for going against the established norm of the site. With more question games, this stigma would be alleviated.
Ultimately, the Random Whatever the Fuck You Want to Call it Stage is nothing more than an icebreaker. The RWFYWTCS is significantly LESS important than the pages immediately after RWFYWTCS. I don't care if it's RQS or RVS or Random-Theory-Discussion-Stage or anything else. But people don't find scum through the arbitrary start-of-game crap. They find scum through whatever comes AFTER the arbitrary start-of-game crap.
END RANT.
That said, we should lynch Bogre.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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I'm not elaborating on town reads because there's no reason to. The only reason I can think of off the top of my head is if I was defending you from a lynch, which right now, isn't something to worry about.SaintKerrigan wrote:@ Kmd: Why not elaborate on your town reads? I have to say, I'm getting a little worried about you. I don't really see the point in most of the points against Neto (except maybe the random-voting despite disliking it), and your reason for making Mae a sure scum read isn't a good one.
Neto seems to be changing his story and squiriming a little too much.
I was wrong on Mae.
Enough theory talk.Netopalis wrote:Agreed, there is a lot more that goes into it. However, if we seek to improve D1 play (I just did a quick count of the mini normals, and the count is 17 scum lynched D1 compared to 35 town lynched D1 - not as bad as I thought, but hardly optimal), and given that there is one common thread - random voting - it seems that improving that area would probably improve D1 play in general.
Why'd you think that?Neto wrote:SK: You meant to vote for me, not for Netlava, I think.
Who is looking for a lynch?Neto wrote:Bogre: Not at the moment. I would normally say that I think that a few people are beingovereager to lynchbased on questionable tells, but I've noticed that whenever I attack people for that, they're usually town, so I don't really feel that it's a good predictor.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Wait, did Incog say to be around for the start or was it your own idea?Maemuki wrote: *nods* It is. But since Incog said so, I thought it would be better if I was on the safe side. But that's beside the point. Carry on!
Noted. Thanks.Bogre wrote: She's mentioned that in every game I've played with her in, I think, so I don't think its anything beyond a disclaimer for her meta.
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Neto,
-------------------------Kmd4390 wrote: Who is looking for a lynch?
Glork, wtf?KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Choosing a bandwagon? (Neto vs Mae?)Glork wrote:
I'm sure you can figure it out if you bother to read and think.Maemuki wrote:
Actually people mention it before I do, or I need to bring it up for some reason. I wish I could go through a game without someone, anyone mentioning it.She's mentioned that in every game I've played with her in, I think, so I don't think its anything beyond a disclaimer for her meta.
Oh yay dice rolls, what do the numbers on the dice mean, Glork? Why did you use dice?KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Yeah. More information helps.Glork wrote:Kmd4390 wrote:I'm getting better. Page 2 and I have 4 pretty solid reads. Neto and Mae as scum. Haylen and Saint as town.
That sure changed quickly for bien ga "pretty solid read."Kmd4390 wrote:Ok, Mae is town.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Well when one of my reads changes, I'm not going to keep pushing the original read.Glork wrote:
Big Red X.Kmd4390 wrote:It was a solid read considering the information availible at the time.
Neto, I still think is scum. Haylen, nothing has really changed. Saint is probably still town. You're probably town. Bogre is probably town. Netlava is probably scum.
You can't say that a read was "solid given the context/information." That gives you license to "change your mind" based on "more information" at virtually any time of your choosing.
Unvote, Vote: kmdfor weasel-wording.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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If you think there's a reasonable chance that your read would change, you shouldn't use words like "solid" and "probably."[/quote]Glork wrote: Well when one of my reads changes, I'm not going to keep pushing the original read.
It's more persuasive that way. And at the time, I was confident in the read.
There's a greater than 50% chance that I'd pick him as scum now.Glork wrote:You just stated that Netlava is "probably scum." Do you really think there is a greater-than-50%-chance that he is scum? If you are that certain, why aren't you kicking and screaming for his lynch? Aprobablescumlynch D1 is something that ANY town would take.
If we were to lynch now, I'd pick either Neto or Netlava. Of course it would be bad not to hear from some players before we lynch though.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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I asked why you didn't bandwagon, you said it was because you don't like random voting.Netopalis wrote:How is that changing my story? I said from the beginning that I didn't want to bandwagon. Everything that I have said has been internally consistent. You can disagree with my position, sure, but that doesn't mean that I'm changing my story.
You said you voted for no reason, then later said you used a random number generater.
Then you went on about theory and I stopped paying attention.
Yep.Glork wrote: In your average 12-13 player game, there are 3-4 scums, which is 25-33%. If you are protown, then at the start of a game, any other player has a 25-33% chance of flipping scum if they were to be lynched immediately.
See, I don't think about numbers and percentages when I use words like that. It's my way of saying that is my opinion. I don't know what would be a better word, but that's just semantics, so I'm sticking with that.Glork wrote:You stated that a player (in this case, Netlava) is "probably scum." By its very definition, the word "probably" means that you believe there is a >50% chance that Netlava is scum.
1) No, not even close to 50%. Assuming it starts around 30%, there's maybe a 35% chance. I realize that odds say there is a good chance that I'm wrong on, what, two thirds of my reads? That's not going to stop me from trying to get my reads though.Glork wrote:Now, there are two things that I want to know:
1) If I were to dayvig Netlava right now, do you think there is a greater-than-50% chance that he will flip scum? I want you to think about what that means before answering.
2) If the answer to the above is "yes, I do think there is a greater-than-50% chance that he will flip scum," why aren't you pushing his lynch?
2) Let's pretend for a second that I did answer "yes". I think it's important to get a look at every player. Some players haven't even posted yet. We aren't ready to lynch.
Are you going to say anything about anyone other than Mae?Netlava wrote:
This post still gives me a bad vibe, though.*claps slowly* Way to go - Saint is voting your town read and Haylen is voting with you. Bravo, bravo.
Why FoS when you don't have a vote out?Annachie wrote: Bull. Sounds more like attempted justification for things you already know.
FOS KMD
Meh, that's my playstyle. When you are confident, people follow you. When people follow you, you have more control over whether you win or lose the game.Glork wrote: KMD was talking bigger than he actually thoughtKMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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That was game-specific. I was asking for your reasons for voting Mae.Netopalis wrote:
The first question necessarily dictates a theoretical answer. I can't explain without going into theory...Kmd4390 wrote:If you hate random voting, why are you voting Maemuki?
What did you mean by your statement about the bandwagon?KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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I'm not asking to be cleared. I'm answering the question. I was asked why I want people following me. Well, that's why.Netopalis wrote:Incidentally, "I know I'm town" has failed to clear *anybody* of suspicion in any mafia game. It's a useful thing to remember, but as an argumentative point, it sucks.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Leading the town isn't a tell one way or the other. It's a playstyle (or maybe personality trait, but meh).Maemuki wrote: Figures. Anyway. Would be leading the town a scumtell, kmd? Would be mislynching a person because you said so helpful for your (I'm assuming here) town win condition?
I don't think ALL of that theory talk was necessary to explain your vote.Netopalis wrote:And my reasons for voting Mae obviously had something to do with theory. Every vote on P1 is based on some sort of theoretical underpinning.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Kmd4390 I lost a bet.
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Why do you need strong reasons to cast one vote?Annachie wrote:
Since we see to be past the RVS stage, casting a vote is serious and needs reasons and stuff.KMD wrote:Why FoS when you don't have a vote out?
So far KMD, I'm only suspicious of you. That's not enough reason for a vote.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Netlava has been around, but commented on basically nothing. All he's given is his opinions on you (Mae) and his reason for voting you mirrored my reason for suspecting you earlier. When I said you were town, he unvoted. Now he's going back to suspecting you, but with no reasons or vote.
Neto has pretty much explained himself. I don't expect to get much more out of him. I'm still suspicious of him, but there are better directions to turn my attention right now.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Neto, I don't see a problem with Saint's Netlava vote.
Camn's first post, exactly what I'd expect until the "only wearing my underwear" part.
Post 160, Ann looks like a possible Neto-buddy.
Neto, while I never respond well to pressure, I don't think there is a time in this game where I was ever "flailing".
Netlava, Post 170, it would be nice to hear your thoughts on some other players, not just Mae.
Neto, 172, so attacking you is poor play, but unvoting and turning my attention elsewhere is an improvement? Riiiiiiight.
Netlava, 185, do you find Haylen and Gayle scummy for joke posting? Why aren't you voting anyone (at the time. haven't finished reading, so maybe a vote comes later)? Ann, same question.
212, by Neto. I don't like it. At all.
1) The apology looked like she felt like she was expected to be here, which seems nervous. Nervousness is one of the things I look for at the beginning of a game. I caught a scum in confirmations that way, but the game is ongoing, so I won't be able to link it for maybe a week.Glork wrote:Two questions for KMD: Going back to your early "four solid reads on Page 2" thing, I'm once again curious about your flip-flop on Mae. Your initial post was on Post 36. You had changed your mind regarding Mae by Post 60.
1) What caused that initial, misguided scum interpretation?
2) What caused you to change your mind about Mae?
2) Her explanation made sense. If she is a known lurker, and was even asked about it by the Mod, it explains why she'd want to be here right at the start of the game and why she'd apologize for being a little slow to the thread and having to catch up a little. So the nervousness that I picked up wasn't "OMG hope they don't find out I got a scum PM", it was "Shit, now I might look like a lurker again".
Zach, 249, I gloat as town.
Glork, 255, I lol'd.
Mae, 260, town aren't always right. I don't expect Saint to vote scum every time if he's town. To 263, I don't "protect" anyone until I feel they are close to a lynch, and even then, it had better be a damn strong town read.
Unvote, Vote Netopalis
And since I wasn't here for the discussion, I live in Upstate New York where it is always cold and snowing and I'm just wearing my pants right now.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Neto, 273, I was looking around while I was voting you. I suspected Mae at the time and Netlava too. You should be able to find this in my post history if you look. I don't think I was ever tunneling.
Mae, question. Have you ever been scum before?
Gayle making a program looks like a newbtowntell to me.
If one day is V/LA, I should have said something yesterday.Netopalis wrote:Oh, and incidentally, Incognito, V/LA from roughly midnight tonight to 8 PM tomorrow. I'll be driving from WV to Georgia.
Zach in 326 makes my gut twitch a little.
On Neto vs El, Page 14, it's a playstyle dispute. Not necessarily a tell one way or the other on either player. El seems to get this. Neto doesn't. To be honest, the argument has me second guessing my read on Neto. Like he actually sees El as scum. But then again, he could be scum who is frustrated at being suspected and OMGUSing El. My mind is a mess trying to figure this out.
I can actually follow Netlava's thought process in 350. I don't agree with it, but I can follow it.
Still trying to figure out what's up with Netlava's obsession with Mae. Still like my vote on Neto. With 2 days to deadline and Neto's wagon being the leading wagon, at L-2, a claim some time soon would probably be appropriate.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Ann, I really don't think I ever tunneled in this game. Also, why does a Neto town flip make me scum? Why does a Neto scum flip make me "lucky"? Why is your read on Neto so wishy washy? If you are "thinking town", why vote him?
Heh, last time I NK'd you, you were a possible lynch target and I lived to endgame. That amused me.camn wrote: Plus.. I will get my thoughts together better over the weekend. This was the first week of school.. and it has caught me kind of by surprise With my luck I will probly be nightkilled.
If I am..... KMD IS SCUM.
Glork, I see you just posted. What does a commuter do?KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Annachie - Cautious with votes, but opinions are out there. Gonna have to say town because the only thing I saw was the connection to Neto.
Haylen - The willingness to joke around actually looks like a towntell. Better Day 1 play than I'd expect from a scum Haylen. Town read.
SaintKerrigan -Clear, well explained opinions. Town read.
Netopalis -Town because of the claim.
camn - So far, Camn is...well, Camn. I usually don't peg her as scum on Day 1. This game is no different. If she's scum, I won't be catching her today.
Netlava - Weird obsession with Mae. Doesn't seem to want to talk about anyone else. Very weird. Not even sure what to make of it alignment-wise.
Bogre -Very under the radar, but not lurking. Not saying anything that draws much attention his way. It's like he's trying to hide. Scum read maybe?
Gayle -He's town because he made that program.
Glork -Very protown in questioning so far, but this is Glork we are talking about. If he's scum, he won't be easy to catch.
Zachrulez -Bandwagons out of the gate like he did as scum in Open 150-Crossfire, though he probably does it regardless of alignment. Most opinions seem to go with the town's general consensus.
Ellibereth - I like the playstyle. Xyl once said gut reads are hard to fake. Town read for now, but like Glork said, there is pressure for accuracy.
Maemuki- I've been over this. Mae is obvtown.
1-2 scum are on this wagon. I know it's not me. I don't think it's Haylen. So Zach and maybe Eli or Glork.Incognito wrote:*Netopalis (5) <-~ Zachrulez, Ellibereth, Kmd4390, Glork, Haylen
Vote ZachrulezKMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Because I believe the claim.SaintKerrigan wrote: To everyone who unvoted Netopalis: Why did you unvote as soon as you got the claim?
Kmd: Not that I don't appreciate the town read, but how exactly have my opinions been clear and well-explained?
It's the feeling I get from your posts. Like you really believe what you are saying.
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Haylen hasn't seen the claim yet I assume.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Kmd4390 I lost a bet.
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Incognito wrote:camn,Tracker, killed Night 1
It wasn't me, I swear.
Ok, so the lynching wagon on Netlava was ridiculously scummy. His town flip means I'd be willing to bet on at least one scum on the lynch.
*Netlava (6) <-~ Maemuki, Netopalis, Yosarian2, Haylen, SaintKerrigan, Gayle
Mae is town. Neto is town. Haylen is town. Gayle is town. That leaves Yos and Saint. I'm still leaning town on Saint.
Vote Yos
Now to read Day 2.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Kmd4390 I lost a bet.
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Kmd4390 I lost a bet.
- I lost a bet.
- I lost a bet.
- Posts: 14493
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Kmd4390 I lost a bet.
- I lost a bet.
- I lost a bet.
- Posts: 14493
- Joined: July 2, 2008
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Kmd4390 I lost a bet.
- I lost a bet.
- I lost a bet.
- Posts: 14493
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Meh, if the three of you were scum, bussing one of you may have been a better play.Zachrulez wrote: That is lame.
So is your logic that I am scum with Yos.
He could have simply voted for Netopolis. Engineering a bandwagon with that little time is far from easy to do.
I believe him.Bogre wrote:Re Gayle: He -said- he made a program to find scum, have we actually seen it ?
Hmm. You make sense here, but you trying to shift my attention makes me uneasy.Bogre wrote:Re Zach: Okay...do you feel that your view is supported by Yos's post-lynch actions? I agree that starting an alternate bandwagon is scummy, but I believe that Zach would still be a better candidate, because in either scenario Zach is still scum (and as St.Kerrigan suggests Yos as leader of the wagon is still in question):
This is true. Hmm..Glork wrote: ConsideringNETO WAS SLATED TO BE LYNCHED, NOT ZACH, your "Yos/Zach" pairing is completely backwards. If Yos wanted to "save Zach" all he had to do was NOT VOTE ZACH. Heck, he could have just voted Neto and that would have ensured that Neto would have been lynched. So the only way your Yos/Zach pairing works is if Neto is scum with BOTH of them, and he had to find a completely separate wagon to save them both.
Nobody started or pushed the Lavawagon to save Zach. It would have been to save Neto.
Why do we want to know this?Glork wrote:Question for Neto: Did you commute last night?
Tell the truth, now. Big Brother is watching.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Kmd4390 I lost a bet.
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Wait. I was about to post a whole "no, scum want to know more than town, I don't get why curiosity goes above that" post, but I think I actually want to know. I guess you could say I'm curious too.Glork wrote:Kmd4390 wrote:
Why do we want to know this?Glork wrote:Question for Neto: Did you commute last night?
Tell the truth, now. Big Brother is watching.Wemight not. But I have my reasons, not least of which is mere curiosity.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Kmd4390 I lost a bet.
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Hmm.
I've been thinking.
Neto as scum actually makes sense. I believed his claim initially because I saw that he was a newer player, but he confirmed that he already knew what a commuter was coming into the game.
Someone said it could explain later why he's still alive later. So the only way to take him out of the game will probably be to lynch him.
I don't think I disagree with a Neto lynch as much as I did before.KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare-
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Kmd4390 I lost a bet.
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- I lost a bet.
- Posts: 14493
- Joined: July 2, 2008
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Kmd4390 I lost a bet.
- I lost a bet.
- I lost a bet.
- Posts: 14493
- Joined: July 2, 2008
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Kmd4390 I lost a bet.
- I lost a bet.
- I lost a bet.
- Posts: 14493
- Joined: July 2, 2008
Balance, yes.Incognito wrote: Did you guys think the game was balanced?
Were the deadlines a littletooquick?
Would you play in a game like this again in the future?
Deadlines, near perfect.
If I keep playing mafia, which doesn't seem likely, this is exactly the kind of game I'd look for.
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Haylen, you speculated on the Camn kill and didn't think that I was scum? How?
I'd keep him alive like I did with you in that newbie game.Yosarian2 wrote: If I was scum, pretty sure I would have killed Glork.
Yosarian2 wrote:partners were fingeredKMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare
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