NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Kublai Khan]

Kublai Khan replaces Tigris.

*nods*

Will try to have a full read and analysis by later tonight.

[Kublai Khan]

Okay. Reading is going a lot slower than anticipated due to RL job constraints.

But I've read the first four pages and lately I've had the belief that first impressions are far moar important then we generally give them credit. This is based on the observation that as the game goes on and town states their reads and positions on events, scum learns how to blend in by taking corresponding or contravening positions and begin the game of manipulation. Then it's a game of whether scum can maintain a town-mindset facade of town-mindset while eliminating the most troublesome towns. Then scum lose by either fucking up or being unlucky.

But at the very beginning of the game, that town mindset facade is at it's most fragile because scum have the least information to manipulate. So going on that this is my early impressions.

Town

DGB
STD
ABR
Glork
chamber
CES
PJ
farside
Untrod Tripod
mafiaSSK
Green Crayons
YosDos

Scum

sotty7
LML
VitaminR
porochaz
Seol

[Kublai Khan]

@KublaiKhan, are you having trouble motivating yourself to find the scum in this game?

I am, sorry. Thought I was going to have time this weekend and I'm making time now to read. I've made it to Page 15 (Site Crash/Return). Going to keep slogging until I fall asleep.

[Kublai Khan]

Sorry, one more prod dodge. Friday night my main assignment ends and is my main window for being caught up/read up/and full of analysis.

[Kublai Khan]

Ugh. So much text. Im out od practice.

[Kublai Khan]

@Kublai:

But I've read the first four pages and lately I've had the belief that first impressions are far moar important then we generally give them credit.

<snip>

Scum

sotty7
LML
VitaminR
porochaz
Seol

I know you're still in your read through phase. But at some point, because you put a lot of emphasis on the first impressions, I would like to see you point out the first-impression posts of the players you find scummy, and then explain why your first impressions are of scum rather than town.

Sorry for the big delay. School is finally done and I've posted all the grades. Summer has officially started and I'm free from any teaching obligations at present. I'm about 9 pages from the top so I should be read up and be a full contributing player by tonight.

sotty7 - Disliked Post 58. Don't really understand the need to actively diffuse the MafiaSSK wagon at that point in time.
LoudmouthLee - Dice rolling to RVS is scummy because the intent may be to hide accidentally giving away any information. Also, Post 62. The claim that Tigris is attempting to garner trust with the town is farfetched.
VitaminR - Also shaming the MafiaSSK wagon for little reason. (Post 65)
porochaz - I don't recall why I put porochaz here. Nothing looks amiss.
Seol - Post 54 - The MafiaSSK push is trumped up and bad.

[Kublai Khan]

Why are people calling me a "she"? I'm a dude...

[Kublai Khan]

Also: Hi, MrBuddyLee. Why are you asking questions to other people about my actions and/or just leaping to assumptions without asking me to clarify?

Obviously I'm not going with some simplistic thinking of "voting MafiaSSK = scum" or vice versa. It's moar to do with the style and timing of the arguments. petroleumjelly voted after quoting MafiaSSK. Which is a fine tactic to invite responses based on assumptions and judge those assumptions appropriately. Seol painted an excessively scummy picture for the forth page in a large game. So my impression was that he was scummier for it.

[Kublai Khan]

I'm writing stuff. Calm down Glork.

[Kublai Khan]

Tease us with a vote~

I think LoudmouthLee is pretty scummy. petroleumjelly doesn't seem scummy. Just getting started on analyzing BooKitty.

So, VOTE: LoudmouthLee for now.

[Kublai Khan]

I'm writing stuff. Calm down Glork.

Still haven't seen it.

In Post 278 you give a stern warning to VitaminR that scum aren't going to be caught based on small "common" tells. Then you spend an inordinate amount of time attacking Save The Dragons and Untrod Tripod for wagon-jumping. Even making up an Excel worksheet to make your simplistic scum-hunting look more in depth than it really is.

I don't believe that your Excel sheet-based scum-hunting is legitimate. It's Adel-esque, but the reason those excel sheets work for Adel is all the extra work she puts into them. Timing of vote changes, how big the wagons were at the time of change, competing wagon sizes, etc.. That's what true VCA is made up of. Plus if you honestly are hunting based on VCA, why announce it early-to-mid Day 1? That just tells scum to watch how they vote from that point on.

Plus there's other little stuff that bugs me. You've paraded your meta around, encouraging others to research you. I find that scum happy with their play are more likely to do this.

Why are you voting me?

[Kublai Khan]

FTR, KKscum directly implicates STDscum at this point.

[Kublai Khan]

Wait, why am I not linked to Untrod Tripod the same way, Glork?

[Kublai Khan]

I'm not going to lynch LML

A no lynch is preferable?

[Kublai Khan]

I'm not going to lynch LML

A no lynch is preferable?

YES

How did LoudmouthLee earn your town rating?

[Kublai Khan]

The freudian slip was weird. I wouldn't be surprised if that was deliberate on LML's part.

Thought that too. Even thought maybe it was a signal for his scummates to start bussing him. But it's the dying words of a leading scumwagon at deadline so it probably isn't worth dissecting.

[Kublai Khan]

I want DrippingGoofball to answer my earlier question.

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

[Kublai Khan]

Seems redundant but.. Bookitty, CrashTextDummie, petroleumjelly, and Yosarian2 are very town.

Albert B. Rampage is acting like a flea.

@MrBuddyLee - Why do you have petroleumjelly as scum?

Did/do people seriously think that KK was possibly getting lynched yesterday? He had (I think 4), can anyone find 8 other players that expressed a modicum of interest?

I don't think the attempt was to lynch. I think it was an attempt to create another option to further divide/demoralize the town and create possibility of no lynch.

Acting like she did not understand the Hickory Dickory Doc(tor) claim is not credible.

Yeah I had to look this up, I'm French, I never heard of such things.

I'm from Quebec too. I know the nursery rhyme. It's a fairly ubiquitous Mother Goose story. Just as

La cigale et la fourmi

is a common fable as well (The Ant and the Grasshopper).

Highly unlikely to read D1 right now.

Why are you unlikely to read D1 after a scum lynch? That doesn't make any sense.

I think it's important to make it clear that busing his scumpartners has historically been a huge and even pathological part of LML's play. I posted this last Tuesday, about twelve hours before LML "slipped" that he was being bused:

That makes it more likely that the "bus" comment was deliberately slipped in to create discord and confusion, IMO.

DrippingGoofball's argument of "it happened once, therefore always" is pretty horrible. Add in the "why me?", the OMGUSing, the sarcasm, and the meta. It's a neon scum-sign.

Tell me more about your undo suspicions.

Oh, and the deflecting, too.

[Kublai Khan]

I start out the day by voting mathcam, then he votes for me with flimsy half-baked characterizations, and then accuses me of OMGUS. He's caught. Lynch him.

Replace mathcam with DrippingGoofball and you with me and I'm wondering why you aren't voting DrippingGoofball instead of distracting from it.

[Kublai Khan]

But not really, right?

Yes really.

@MrBuddyLee - Why do you have petroleumjelly as scum?

I don't want PJ lynched today. He caught scum yesterday by spotting a bad argument and I'm hoping he continues to do so.

That didn't really answer my question.

Do you think scum wanted LML lynched, Bookitty lynched, or a no-lynch?

At what point in time are you asking? Scum-wants changed as the situation grew dire for them.

I start out the day by voting mathcam, then he votes for me with flimsy half-baked characterizations, and then accuses me of OMGUS. He's caught. Lynch him.

Replace mathcam with DrippingGoofball and you with me and I'm wondering why you aren't voting DrippingGoofball instead of distracting from it.

Why aren't you voting mathcam?

Because DrippingGoofball is scummier.

[Kublai Khan]

That does not suitably convey how ludicrous it was that you thought you would reveal your cop suspicion.

ABR is so obvious, Sherlock. I didn't "reveal" anything.

Well, obviously Albert B. Rampage isn't a cop, so...

I mean, I understand what you're saying about mathcam, though I'm waffling on it. It feels a little "gotcha!" and not substantial, but... mathcam might have actually slipped in attacking the perceived outing rather than the result.

Still, I still feel like lynching you. Then depending on your flip, I'll feel differently about mathcam. How do you feel about that?

[Kublai Khan]

Vote: ABR

Why Albert B. Rampage?

Why not DrippingGoofball?

[Kublai Khan]

I'm not going to vote you KK, because there's actually a pretty good chance you're town, but I am going to mime bopping you on the head for that comment.

No problem. I understand that I'm among mental giants here. Do me a favor and explain the scum motivation behind post 1144.

[Kublai Khan]

Yos, there's a difference between "X defended scum" and "X tied himself to the sinking ship that was his doomed scumbuddy."

I don't know. For most of the day, LML didn't look like a "sinking ship"; there were long periods where I couldn't get more then a few people to say on his wagon. He didn't really look "doomed" until the end of the day, which is when you changed course and got on his wagon.

You didn't think LoudmouthLee was a sinking ship until after the "bus" post?

[Kublai Khan]

And second, Albert B. Rampage alleged he had "looked into the players bussing LoudmouthLee" and decided mathcam was the worst (and maybe CrashTextDummie), but neither of those players had voted LoudmouthLee. Even if I was charitable enough to think he

meant

Bookitty when he said LoudmouthLee, the use of the word "bus" would still be wrong unless Bookitty is also scum (which then begs the question why Albert B. Rampage is not voting for Bookitty). It suggests that Albert B. Rampage has fairly artificial suspicions given that his single sentence must be read to have

two

mistakes in order to make any sense.

Well, I'm annoyed because I wanted Glork to answer first. Glork's vote on Albert B. Rampage feels like a "Something's off! Let's focus on that!" distraction.

I recognize that Albert B. Rampage's post was massively incorrect. Obviously he was mixing up people. But again, how is it scummy? If scum are trying to mislynch, then they take the time to make sure their arguments don't have silly mistakes. Because people don't join wagons that are based on bad data. Also, why wouldn't scum-Albert B. Rampage take advantage of DrippingGoofball's anti-mathcam push? Instead he backs off. Doesn't make sense for scum.

DrippingGoofball's vote on Albert B. Rampage... Now that's a scum move.

[Kublai Khan]

DrippingGoofball's vote on Albert B. Rampage... Now that's a scum move.

Is there any move I could make that you wouldn't consider a scum move LOL?

Yes, plenty. You could always boot up the scumputer instead of scrambling to be on the forefront of whatever new trend is sweeping the game.

[Kublai Khan]

how has undos post not gotten more criticism?

Same reasons you didn't criticize it?

[Kublai Khan]

how has undos post not gotten more criticism?

Same reasons you didn't criticize it?

But my post was criticizing it?

Was it? You're just sorta announcing that it deserves it. Not actually bringing any criticism forward. It's like you're criticizing everyone except for undo.

[Kublai Khan]

I was criticizing everyone that posted in that interim as well as undo, yes, I'm efficient like that.

Okay.

I am aware this system is not precise and objective – it was not intended to be so. It’s just a way of helping me (and hopefully some of you) look into the right players.

I have yet to analyse this results and interpret them in depth -- I will do it as soon as possible, but for now I’m not making any comment because I don't want to be rash. This may not bring anything new to your table but I personally felt I needed to do this to be sure about my next steps.

I think I'll reserve further judgment until undo gives the analysis, though.

BTW, This is why I've held off criticism as well. It's an info dump, but he acknowledges it with promises of analysis later.

[Kublai Khan]

PJ made a vote-switch late yesterday that made an LML lynch more of a possibility. His vote simultaneously took the race from like Bookitty 9, LML 3, PJ 3 to 9-4-3. So in addition to the vote being critical to the building of the LML-wagon, it also removed pressure from the PJ-wagon. I've felt that LML bused a scumpartner, and PJ is one of the options in that direction. I am conflicted on PJ, and don't feel today is necessarily the time to focus on him. When people are lynching scum, you generally keep them around.

Is that it? It kinda sounds like you're taking the towniest of the people on the LoudmouthLee wagon and choosing to view their actions through a WIFOMy "must be bussing" filter.

What gives you such a strong feeling that LoudmouthLee bussed a scumpartner?

Do you think scum wanted LML lynched, Bookitty lynched, or a no-lynch?

At what point in time are you asking? Scum-wants changed as the situation grew dire for them.

My question was in response to this comment of yours:

I don't think the attempt was to lynch. I think it was an attempt to create another option to further divide/demoralize the town and create possibility of no lynch.

So basically, I'm asking: do you really feel all three remaining players (MBL, Glork, DGB) from the KK-wagon were voting you to demoralize the town? I can understand "divide"--yes, offering you as an alternative was an invitation to step off other wagons. Of the three of us, only DGB showed a willingness to no-lynch.

I'll break my question down:
1) Do you really think my voting you yesterday and keeping that vote there until deadline-day was designed to result in a no-lynch?
2) Do you think Glork's switch to you 16 hours before deadline was designed to result in no-lynch?
3) Do you believe DGB found both LML and Bookitty too townish to vote for yesterday, or is that implausible?
4) Are you pretty sure that Bookitty is scum? Because if she's town, wouldn't it make more sense for one or more of scum-Glork, scum-DGB and scum-MBL to push for her lynch at 9-3 or 9-5 Bookitty instead of no-lynching or risking an LML lynch?

1. It's a possibility.
2. It's a possibility.
3. It wasn't implausible. When DrippingGoofball said a no lynch was preferred, I tried to ascertain how LoudmouthLee was so town in her view. She didn't answer until Day 2 started, so that answer is weak.
4. There is risk to pushing a competing wagon close to deadline. Maybe they hadn't laid down the proper groundwork for a BooKitty push. But.... It's really, really easy to push a competing wagon on me because I had mostly prod-dodged since replacing in. So it's super easy to shoot a vote on me with a rallying cry of "hey this guy didn't do much and jumped on a wagon towards the end of the day with no case" and maybe it catches on.

Examining those that voted me, only Glork fits that profile. You and DrippingGoofball both expressed early suspicion of the BooKitty slot while Glork declared it super-town. Glork voted me with the reason of "this guy didn't post enough, therefore scum". Plus Glork offered to hammer anyone else immediately after voting LML.

Shit.. Glork is fucking scum.

vote: Glork

--
I saw the undo wagon build. It's not a bad pressure wagon but it's a terrible lynch wagon.

[Kublai Khan]

@KK

, what do you think of Glork's vote for LML that made it 8-8? Is that really the kind of play scum makes on a partner a few hours before deadline, when no-lynch is a more likely possibility? Please walk me through how that makes sense to you.

Glork voted LoudmouthLee directly after (and because of) LoudmouthLee making his "bus slip". So absolutely yes it could be a partner vote because the door was swung wide open. (Like holy shit. Context.)

Going silent and hoping for a no-lynch is a) not Glork's style and b) scummier than bussing a dying partner for town cred.

Glork also pestered you for a vote 16 hours before deadline, knowing full well that you suspected LML from an earlier post. Why the fuck would he do that as scum instead of shutting up and hoping for a nolynch?

A) I don't think Glork cared who I would vote for and b) Why are you defending Glork so much?

Also, you think Bookitty is very town.. so from that perspective, do you REALLY think Glork's protection of her all day combined with the fact that the alternative wagon was scum combined with the fact that he was the vote that tied it up between Boo and LML, etc etc points to Glork as likely scum?

I mean, it's possible, but it really stretches likelihood.

It's mafia. Likelihoods are gonna get stretched. And yes, I think that makes Glork likely scum. The two main wagons were Bookitty and his buddy LoudmouthLee. Glork doesn't really want LoudmouthLee lynched, but the alternate wagon is on someone that he's gone out of his way to insist that she is town. So the solution is start a ruckus on a third party and see if momentum can be gained.

Also speaking of stretching likelihoods, you ignored my questions about why you think petroleumjelly is scum.

---
What? We're pushing a DrippingGoofball wagon again now? After I lost heart because it stalled? This game is toying with my emotions.

[Kublai Khan]

I'm willing to put some work and give you all my 100% analysis of the game but unlike the dumbos of Pikmin Mafia, I need that some of you promise to lynch the players on my scum list to give my game ghost some peace in the Dead QT.

Do we have a deal? I don't want to be wasting my time like I did on the Pikmin FAILtown.

So.. You're going to work hard analyzing the game and if the analysis is rigorous, then people should lynch who you think is scum. Wow, that's the same deal that every town player explicitly makes by joining this game as town. What a bargain!

But you decided to wait until their was a big wagon on you first and you voted a ton of people and tried to get other people lynched without really analyzing anything so far, apparently.

[Kublai Khan]

I'm sorry undo but I have an oral contract with Glork to ignore him until 3p lylo

Contracts with scum aren't legally binding.

[Kublai Khan]

UNVOTE: DGB

Don't know who to vote for. How disheartening.

Glork.

[Kublai Khan]

UNVOTE: DGB

Don't know who to vote for. How disheartening.

Glork.

You're pushing a case that you yourself admit is a "stretch" of a possibility.

Are you scum or just incapable of sound logic?

That's a hell of a twist on my words. MrBuddyLee thinks it's a stretch. I don't.

Are you scum or just making absurdly defensive posts?

Can someone explain this?

Glork is usually top priority for the NK.

Everyone should call him UNLYNCHABLE TOWN.

If he's still alive on Day 4 with everyone refusing to ever lynch him... he's scum!

That only works if he's correct on his reads. He's already sworn that scum is town (LoudmouthLee) and that town is scum (petroleumjelly). So why have a (horrible) meta policy on him?

@Albert B. Rampage - Is your VitaminR scum-read the only reason for your Glork-town read?

@SpyreX: Hey! You're here! Awesome! Post more! Hypocrisy!

@Green Crayons - Your point (3) is actually your best point.

@anyone riding a wagon of 1. Off your wagons. MrBuddyLee, place a vote somewhere.

[Kublai Khan]

I disagree with the SpyreX lynch. It's a dense long game and SpyreX is really good when he's town. Lynching the slot as a compromise when good wagons exist is a scum push.

[Kublai Khan]

KK, please indicate where I "swore" that anyone was of a particular alignment.

Okay, you got me. You didn't technically use the word "swear". But your "reads" were perfectly clear.

Guys, why are you not voting Glork?

[Kublai Khan]

Also, the mathcam wagon is really bad.

[Kublai Khan]

@MOD:

Can we please have a prod on Kublai Khan? He hasn't posted yet this game day.

Also:

@Kublai Khan:

Who are your top suspicions now that Glork has flipped town?

I'm reading. I'm going over ISOs in my spare time. Sorry if I don't want to post fluff. Working on substance.

[Kublai Khan]

@DrippingGoofball - How come you didn't boot up the scumputer after undo & petroleumjelly claimed?

[Kublai Khan]

@DrippingGoofball -

How do you reconcile statements like:

DrippingGoofball (7) -- Untrod Tripod, Kublai Khan, Sotty7, Save the Dragons, Porochaz, CrashTextdummie, Albert B. Rampage

All but one scum is on that shit wagon.

with the logic that goes behind the scumputer?

[Kublai Khan]

Sorry I didn't have time to play guys. This was a very fun game.

Scum
sotty7

LML

VitaminR

porochaz

Seol

3/5. Not a bad scum-detecting record based on Day 1 first impressions. People need to remember to trust those.

[Kublai Khan]

Yeah, but.. uh.. you had the slight advantage.

[Kublai Khan]

Scum

sotty7

LML

VitaminR

porochaz

Seol

3/5. Not a bad scum-detecting record based on Day 1 first impressions. People need to remember to trust those.

3/6.

FOS: KK.

Never believing you again.

Eh?