The Mystery Box Of Silver 5: Clash of Cash death grips

[ElevenThirty]

acshully an 1130 lynch sounds decent.

For the record.
At this stage.
Pretty sure pisskop and 11:30 aren't both scum.
Pretty sure that, mechanically, at least one of them must be REGARDLESS of whether Toogeloo's survivor or groupscum.
Pretty sure that, given one of them being scum and the other not being scum.
That Rhinox is scum regardless.
And the only way for Rhinox to not be scum is if there's only two groupscum and Toogeloo's one of them. (No, seriously, that's the only way I can see Rhinox not being groupscum here.)

??? how is there mechanically scum in us/pk

[ElevenThirty]

acshully an 1130 lynch sounds decent.

For the record.
At this stage.
Pretty sure pisskop and 11:30 aren't both scum.
Pretty sure that, mechanically, at least one of them must be REGARDLESS of whether Toogeloo's survivor or groupscum.
Pretty sure that, given one of them being scum and the other not being scum.
That Rhinox is scum regardless.
And the only way for Rhinox to not be scum is if there's only two groupscum and Toogeloo's one of them. (No, seriously, that's the only way I can see Rhinox not being groupscum here.)

To put this into perspective:
YAYVIDEOGAMES is not scum here.
If Auro is town (this is the one and only weak spot to be had in the 'Rhinox is scum regardless' theory)...
...You have four slots remaining:
11:30, pisskop, Rhinox, and Toogeloo. There's a maximum of three scum in them and a minimum of two.
If 11:30 and pisskop cannot be groupscum together (and I am pretty sure that they aren't), then the combinations possible are:
{11:30, Rhinox}
{11:30, Toogeloo} (in which case today's not lylo)
{11:30, Rhinox, Toogeloo}
{pisskop, Rhinox}
{pisskop, Toogeloo} (in which case today's not lylo)
{pisskop, Rhinox, Toogeloo}.

In every instance.
Unless today's not lylo (in which case we have a mislynch to spare anyway).
Rhinox is scum.

It requires one assumption; Auro as town. That's it, because the other two 'assumptions' (Yayvideogames is town; pisskop and 11:30 aren't scumbuddies) I am not budging on because they just aren't wrong.

So,

to everyone who townreads Auro:

if you feel strongly about Auro being town...you should be voting Rhinox here today.

uh, no, there's more than one than one assumption here that i take issue with, namely:

a) your read on auro is *way* too weak to be using to poe the game this way at this stage
b) why aren't us/pk mechanically not scum together; as far as i can tell this just got pulled out of thin air

[ElevenThirty]

I'm very afraid of scum voting me skitter

~ Pichu

ank if you're actually town here we're going to have to talk about how you read me in post because i really can't understand like any of your thought processes here

[ElevenThirty]

We think that toog is the correct lynch today

The issue I have with that is that the game was advertised as being heavy in 3p.
It has had one established 3p mechanic; the three players who left the game in a loss.
It has otherwise not had 3p present at all.

Toogeloo is guaranteed not town, yes.
But I'm not convinced he's groupscum.

I'd prefer to wait until tomorrow at the earliest before considering lynching him.

Lynch one scum--maybe lynch two. If game's not won then, sure, yeah, Toog's groupscum; lynch him then. But today it feels like it'd be a dick move.

It's safe, sure. We can't definitively 100% suffer a guaranteed loss by lynching Toogeloo. We are guaranteed to survive to see tomorrow with his lynch. I just find it not as likely for him to be groupscum here.

yes but he could be groupscum and we know that he isn't town

he's either groupscum; there's only 2 scum and he's 3p; or the game would be over

barring some wacky 3-2-1-1 stuff i see no reason why he isn't the correct lynch today

[ElevenThirty]

Was auro voted? I kinda townread voted a whilr back but he lurked through like two dayphases so the read is kinda stale/gone

I wouldn't call siteflaked-to-be-replaced as "lurked through two dayphases"; I'd call it siteflaked-to-be-replaced.

And yes, Voted was indeed a townread of mine which Auro has continued, but not for any established reason. Just gut.

i didn't know that he site-flaked

either way that doesn't change why the read is stale now; he hasn't posted in like two dayphases

[ElevenThirty]

nothing that you've done today was town skitter

~ Pichu

i *very* strongly feel the exact same about you so

[ElevenThirty]

Oh I thought I was being quickhammered.

To be honest you probably were at risk of exactly that.

Toogeloo's either a survivor or scum. If town gets lynched today, regardless of which, Toogeloo wins.

If Toogeloo is legitimately a survivor he can't win the game instantly by voting town because there's not three groupscum PLUS him as a survivor (if there were, they'd have announced as much), meaning that town has the majority--but he certainly wouldn't care if town handed him the win by voting town.

Toogeloo's vote on you actually serves as more evidence to me that you + pisskop are town.

uh how do you know there aren't 3 groupscum

[ElevenThirty]

Oh I thought I was being quickhammered.

To be honest you probably were at risk of exactly that.

Toogeloo's either a survivor or scum. If town gets lynched today, regardless of which, Toogeloo wins.

If Toogeloo is legitimately a survivor he can't win the game instantly by voting town because there's not three groupscum PLUS him as a survivor (if there were, they'd have announced as much), meaning that town has the majority--but he certainly wouldn't care if town handed him the win by voting town.

Toogeloo's vote on you actually serves as more evidence to me that you + pisskop are town.

uh how do you know there aren't 3 groupscum

i misread this sorry, my bad

[ElevenThirty]

what on earth are you going on about

a) you just called auro a 'gut-townread',and using that to poe the game, and now you're 'pretty damn sure' he isn't scum
b) why are you removing yourself (and your townreads) from the poe from *my* pov .... ? like that last line is a ridiculous conclusion

[ElevenThirty]

i didn't know what it even was at first. i never saw it before when I used to play regularly. wiki had play advice where it basically said it can be claimed early but there's little downside not to. I went with not to, figured it'd just have been a distraction with 3rd party shenanigans already in play. I almost didn't bother claiming it now for that reason since i'm not even ascetic anymore anyways. If there's supposed to be a standard play for ascetic like how a miller should always claim early, i didn't know about it.

why are you ignoring this

I'm not; I'm calling it a fucking scumclaim from him.

i don't get it

[ElevenThirty]

nothing that you've done today was town skitter

~ Pichu

i *very* strongly feel the exact same about you so

to everybody else

this exact mindset is the biggest reason I'm scumlocking this slot

skitter has been very flat all day

~ Pichu

i have no idea what 'very flat' means, nor do i know what mindset you're referring to here, nor do i know why you think it's scummy

[ElevenThirty]

and then irrelephant comes in, starts pushing the thread into mechanics and all about lynching toog because survivor

and then out of nowhere he says "ok we're lynching toog but I want to start hunting JUST IN CASE"

like

WHAT?????

~ Pichu

because a) we don't want to be wrong (and i get antsy/skittish/nervous voting in lylo etc)
b) there's still the post-toog flip part of the game ?

[ElevenThirty]

If you mean why did I shoot Wh4t specifically?

Did mastina do this, cuz that pretty town of them

i did mean that, yeah
i do actually agree that it was the correct vig choice

[ElevenThirty]

ok

so why can't we have done that instead of spending 5-10 pages talking about lynching toog instead of scumhunting like I was telling him to

~ Pichu

and, like i told you way back when you first brought it up, we can and are doing both

[ElevenThirty]

??? how is there mechanically scum in us/pk

Because Yayvideogames is town and Auro is pretty damn likely town, leaving four slots of which 2-3 are scum.
One of the four slots is a survivor claim, and is thus either a survivor or third groupscum; in either case there's two scum aside from Toogeloo.
Which leaves 2 scum in the pool of {pisskop, Rhinox, 11:30}.

You and pisskop have pretty definitive not-scumVscum interactions.
Leaving it as either pisskop-Rhinox or 11:30-Rhinox; in either case, there's one scum between you but Rhinox is scum regardless.

again, i object to the assumptions that:

a) auro is town - and i also object to you using a read of this strenght to poe a game in lylo
b) that any of this mechanically implies that me/pk aren't svs - (or at the very least, from the poe of anyone no you)

you're also using 'auro is town' assumption and 'not two scum in me/pk' to get to your poe
but then using the 'auro is town' assumption and your poe to get to 'not two scum in me/pk'

which is p circular logic

[ElevenThirty]

b) why aren't us/pk mechanically not scum together; as far as i can tell this just got pulled out of thin air

This is more or less convincing me you're the scum in between the two of you beyond what I already have as evidence because

you're the slot involved

and should be fucking aware of YOUR OWN PISSKOP INTERACTIONS and why they are pretty definitively not scumVscum.

The way you've treated pisskop's not the way you treat a scumbuddy; the way he treats you is not the way he'd treat a scumbuddy. And you should fucking know that yourself as the one actually involved in those posts.

and you should know that an anti-associative is not the same thing as mechanically not being scum together ???

and i don't even know what posts you're clearing this off of

[ElevenThirty]

a) you just called auro a 'gut-townread',and using that to poe the game, and now you're 'pretty damn sure' he isn't scum

Yeah--and what changed was Toogeloo voted him when pisskop had already voted him and the reactions surrounding then changed my read.

b) why are you removing yourself (and your townreads) from the poe from *my* pov .... ? like that last line is a ridiculous conclusion

Because if you so much as think about voting me or Yayvideogames I'm fucking voting you and you lose regardless of your alignment, so.

that's nice

that doesn't change that you should recognize that we obviously don't have the same pov so informing me that rhinox is almost certiangly scum because you know your alignment and you think yay is town does not in any make the poe true from *my* pov, so acting like this should be a blatantly obvious truth is ridiculous

[ElevenThirty]

I'm getting no real toneread from them

idk how to take that

~ Pichu

then you're reading me wrong, so try again

[ElevenThirty]

From your point of view, Rhinox should be confscum then because the team's {pisskop, Rhinox}, {pissop, Toogeloo; we're not in lylo today and have a mislynch}, or {pisskop, Rhinox, Toogeloo}.

like how is rhinox confscum from *my* pov

i don't care about your pov in this discussion at this moment, you're telling me he's confscum from my pov, and you're ignoring how on earth you got to this conclusion for *my* pov

[ElevenThirty]

actually

I remember in that one micro we played that I could just TELL that the gears were turning in her head when my read on her went from lockscum to locktown on a dime

I distantly remember that happening at a few points in anuket too

I don't remember seeing that once this game, which is very bizarre considering she's been under pressure almost all game

~ Pichu

i'm like doing that rn, so try again

[ElevenThirty]

I'm getting no real toneread from them

idk how to take that

~ Pichu

then you're reading me wrong, so try again

I'm just curious about one thing

why is this your response to me when you're sure I'm scum?

~ Pichu

because i think krazy is town so there's some universes where i'm just reading you badly

[ElevenThirty]

basically i can't tell if i'm right on you or krazy rn

rationally i think krazy is town but all of your posts are just so damn bad and it's hard to synthesize together

[ElevenThirty]

ok ? i don't know what you mean by that

irrel thinks you're probably town but i'm not super comfortable with that read

[ElevenThirty]

ok, why not ?

[ElevenThirty]

ok, why

[ElevenThirty]

you tell me, why are you approaching me today from an informed defensive perspective?

~ Pichu

idk what 'informed defensive perspective' means

[ElevenThirty]

Spoiler: Hey skitter

I just wanted to let you know that ur scum

no, and this is partly why i'm having trouble seeing town!you here because i don't think you ever misread me this badly before (barring anuket, which was the first game you played with me and you eventually saw the light, and i felt like that experience was informative for both of us )

[ElevenThirty]

you tell me, why are you approaching me today from an informed defensive perspective?

~ Pichu

idk what 'informed defensive perspective' means

it means that ur scum

ok

a) what am i informed about?
b) what am i defending?

[ElevenThirty]

oh that was actually mildly confusing

[ElevenThirty]

hi ali

ok, why do you think i'm scum ?

[ElevenThirty]

wow, much helpful

[ElevenThirty]

anyways of the three of you i think i'm ~ probably~ most accurate at reading krazy and i think he's pretty townie here ?

ali i'm just going to ignore because posts like that aren't ai to me

ank is where i'm stuck because i'm having a very very hard time understanding her thought processes here

[ElevenThirty]

but
do you want a real reason why ur scum

go for it

[ElevenThirty]

oh boy

i'm p sure we've had this convo before as tvt

and i think one time after that too but i'm utterly blanking on the second time

[ElevenThirty]

because you're not trying to hide the fact that you're scum.

and this isn't how i play scum, try again

[ElevenThirty]

i'm v much out of my scumrange
i'm actually trying to solve the game

if i were scum i would have fucked off ages ago and not put nearly as much effort in

[ElevenThirty]

uh maybe? i'm not sure why there has to be scum in you/yay

toog definitely isn't town

[ElevenThirty]

right

i feel like i need a new model to think about 3p lylo dynamics

have all possible pairings even been on since then ?

[ElevenThirty]

well i guess we know now there's some sort of scum in us/rhinox/yay/auro else town!rhinox would have been hammered

[ElevenThirty]

no, he posted this morning

[ElevenThirty]

wait pk is voting him

actually i'm not sure this thought process is helpful at all

pk is not scum with 2 of {us/yay/auro}

is that right ?

[ElevenThirty]

Auro since you're obviously paying enough attention to pop in when you get voted do u have any thoughgs on recent developments?

[ElevenThirty]

I have thoughts.

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Ank has anyone ever told you you're sorta Shoshin-y (or vice versa)

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Oh except I guess you know how to play as scum

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

I hope you understand that the odds that at least one scum is very good at planning out endgames exists in this game is on the high side

right

Sure, most players in this playerlist will make the correct kill.
Do you also advocate "Never no lynch in mylo"?

I find it really stupid that we're treating a likely 4v2v1 situation as "WE HAVE TO GET RID OF THE SURVIVOR BECAUSE THEY MIGHT SCUMSIDE!!!!!!!!" as irrel helpfully called it

the justification is that toog is never town, but it's just as true that toog is not always scum

if toog is scum traitor, then there's no real reason to kill him first because we can just try to hunt down both scum and treat it like a straight lylo anyways
if toog is survivor, then scum can't really blackmail him because nightkilling him is just straight up BAD for them, so toog has no reason not to go with the majority lynch, which is town controlled
if toog is groupscum, then he just gets lynched in 3p

either way we're literally losing a town voice to get rid of a likely survivor that is forced to townside or a traitor that doesn't actually benefit town to kill first

and considering that the majority of players still alive are competent at planning out endgames, that's just a net benefit for them

~ Pichu

"the majority of players still alive are competent at planning out endgames" sounds like meaningless fearmongering. Nobody says in mylo "we can't no lynch!! We'll lost the best town voice!!!" Like yes duh you lose a townie and more often than not that townie had good reads so you try to NKA and get it right

auro please tell me that you see the similarities between irrel in the first CoC and this game

because he sure as fuck feels a lot closer to that than he did in port arthur

~ Pichu

Are those the only games of mine you're familiar with because the distinction isn't whether or not I'm town it's whether or not I'm in a hydra

Shoshin, who knows my game better than 98% of the players onsite, was 100% certain I was town in CoC. I don't think you know how to read me and I'm certain I've passed beyond my scumrange and it's pissing me off that you're still shading our slot.

I'll take a closer look.

But also you might be town, Yay, because I agree that "it's beginning to look a lot like scum Auro"

wait pk is voting him

actually i'm not sure this thought process is helpful at all

pk is not scum with 2 of {us/yay/auro}

is that right ?

yay voted you for like 18 hours or something too

So... One of you 2 are scum,

or traitor makes a lot of sense.

I don't think one of us has to be scum based on that? If it's 2 scum + survivor they might have just failed to coordinate

Mastina feels town
Pisskop, no clue
Krazy felt scummy for that bad push on me
You feel town
Rhinox, no clue
Still think we should Lynch Tog

It's beginning to smell a lot like scum auro

(Musical theme)

Lol ank and alisae both want to burn skitter to the ground and here I am tempted to lynch scum auro over toog

Hey skittles what you think on auro?

-pika

The one thing skitter has said to me in discord re: auro is that his pop ins have been scummily timed

townvoice dies. we move on to a straight 3-2 lylo with a reduced lynchpool for better odds at finding the 2. i really don't consider losing a townvoice that much of a negative in the calculus, as it helps us narrow down (and the townvoices have been pretty wrong so far anyways but I digress)

This is like a hilariously good reason to lynch toog

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

idk how to take that

~ Pichu

yeah it was a weird thought

My point was that you/skitter arguments reads exactly like this game where skitter/shoshin argued a lot in lylo
Skitter was like "your points aren't clear and you aren't making logical sense, maybe that makes you scum idk?" and shoshin was like "well you're defending someone I'm sure is scum so I'm scumreading you so I'm not going to help you understand my pov"

If this is a good parallel game, rhinox and/or auro is the scum trying to appeal to skitter's/my sense of logic like nsg did to skitter there

Okay let me organize my thoughts there's a lot that's happened

-Irrel

pedit: Because I don't go outside my scumrange every towngame. This game I have, though - specifically in that one long emotional post I am

certain

I couldn't fake as scum

[ElevenThirty]

I now feel confident that mastina/Yay are the same alignment.
Reasons to townread them both:
-Mastina's wealth of PRs
-Krazy's interrogations of Mastina
-Krazy's play in general
-It's more likely that two townies would heavily defend each other like this than two scummates

Reasons to scumread both slots:
-Mastina's "I visited Voted twice" kiiiiinda feels like "I did a scum PR on Voted twice and need to cover for that in case of tracker" (can't think of another reason to pointlessly visit the same slot twice)
-Ank has worked hard all game to make sure our mislynch remains an option, which would be necessary if the plan is to 1v1 us near or at endgame
-The fact that some of the early nightkills were sorta odd could be that scum didn't want to kill in the top posters, since scum was *in* the top posters (i.e. Yay) and this would draw attention to them
-Both refuse to lynch toog, which can be for obvious scum-motivated reasoning, like if he's their third partner, or if they think they can win the game by getting a mislynch here

Counterpoints:
-Ank doesn't need to 1v1 *us* to win, could easily 1v1 someone like pisskop and win most of the time
-Are scum confident enough to say "let's not lynch the not-town slot"?

Let me come back to this, but for now suffice it to say I think mastina and ank are the same alignment and there would have to be some heavy 3P reasons for them to have so much night power, given town would have... a conditional bulletproof, a 2-shot roleblocker, and an ascetic-turned-1-shot-vig to counter, which doesn't feel like enough off the top of my head. (though that said, as I'm writing this, a survivor who has to give out boxes of silver in addition to scum's boxes of silver could be a thing here - if survivor!toog has continually given mastina powers, then this isn't a strong enough reason to townread the pair of them alone).

-Irrel

pedit: If we lynch toog, and mastina dies tonight, I will never push for your lynch in lylo ever. Given you + mastina's relationship and her confidence you're town (@mastina, you're certain ank is town, yes?).

[ElevenThirty]

But also... if toog jumps on rhinox with pisskop, the mastina/yay team wins, so I should maybe just assume they're both town?
Or pisskop should unvote??

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

My current best guess is {Auro, pisskop/rhinox} as scum, with toog as ???(could be groupscum, could be survivor, survivor's more likely but not certain)

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

mastina

it's just 1130 + rhinox + toog lol

~ Pichu

what if it's just pisskop + auro, and the reason we're butting heads is we're on the two sides of town shouting at each other

Oh but also, if you think toog is scum, let's lynch him lol

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

how long was pisskop voting rhinox before?

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Oh pisskop never stopped voting rhinox really okay it's been 13 hours of pisskop voting rhinox and most players have posted, I think it's safe to say that
Mechanically we have {toog, yay, auro} has a scum &
[{pisskop, rhinox} has a scum] OR [toog is survivor] OR [both of the previous things] OR [we're about to lose because scum are just coordinating their quickhammer]

I think?

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

{toog, yay, auro} has a scum

I guess this might not be true, I fell for Auro's logic when actually the alternative is {scum don't feel like hammering the survivor}

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

I don't know if I believe that town!pisskop has the confidence to vote rhinox here
I do think I believe that scum!pisskop who sees mastina's rhinox push knows it's his best bet at a mislynch today

@pisskop why are you votng rhinox

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Skitter feels rhinox is strongly town for making logical sense; I'm not sure I agree that that's strongly town indicative, but I do think it's weakly town indicative.

I think Auro/Rhinox both being vaguely in the same line of thinking (e.g. let's lynch toog, pisskop seems scummy) means they're not scum together (why appeal to 1130's view of things when you could appeal to both Mastina and Yay's shared view of things?)

If mastina or Yay are scum, it's only with each other

Meaning {Mastina, Yay}, {Auro, Pisskop}, {Rhinox, pisskop} (add toog to any of these teams and it'd still make sense) are the only teams that make any sense to me, and the last one only makes sense to me if the scumteam of pisskop and rhinox have decided they need the towncred of bussing today to win tomorrow's lylo

I'm leaning Auro, Pisskop, +/- Toog as the scums. Mastina, yay, toog, if you're all scum or 2 scum + survivor hurry up and win the game and take me out of my misery
Pisskop if you're town please please please unvote rhinox

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

mastina shooting wh4t makes complete sense

trust me, I checked

the trajectory makes sense

~ Pichu

I agree with this for the record, though I think scum!mastina would probably also shoot wh4t (a townie that she can justify shooting)

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Okay
I think you're scum for other reasons, though I still think toog is the optimal lynch today even as I'm starting to suspect more that he's actually just survivor
But like if this is mylo I would advocate for no lynch to narrow things down some so I guess that's still what I'm advocating for if I think he's survivor

-Irrel

pedit: hmm interesting point, I forgot you had that lolbus moment if s/s

[ElevenThirty]

The PoE I just explained + joining me on the logical play and focusing generally on optimal/mechanical stuff while not really sorting anyone + saying things like "you should be townreading me here" at the same time as "sorry, I'm too busy to play" + being in lylo means I've probably overdepended on a townread that was actually scum which I've definitely done with your slot up till now

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Would you like me to stop scumreading you because you're too busy to post except in scummy pop ins or would you like me to stop scumreading you because scum!you would post more despite how busy you are

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

I freely admit I'm not "sorting" people very hard

I won't be townreading you for this just because you admit it freely and with a
I'm well aware that you're tonally towny as both alignments, I still think you're scummy despite your laissez faire attitude about it

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

For the record, @mastina and @ank, if you're both town, I'm putting all of the burden of sorting each other on you two. If you're both completely confident in the other's alignment, I will not be reading you as having different alignments ever. Let me know if I'm overestimating your confidence

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

nah i like me rhino vote

why are you voting him though

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

It would be nice if this were like some other MBOS games that stopped having night phases on day 4

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Let's say rhinox is scum
He didn't claim ascetic because he's scum
He got to make two nightkills last night
who's his partner, if not pisskop who's voting him? toog? (yes, I can already hear some players saying "you" but since, you know, I'm the one asking)

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

joining me on the logical play and focusing generally on optimal/mechanical stuff while not really sorting anyone + saying things like "you should be townreading me here because my play would be more active and townier as scum" + being in lylo means I've probably overdepended on a townread that was actually scum which I've definitely done with your slot up till now

(slightly edited)

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

who's his partner, if not pisskop who's voting him?

You.

Do you think rhinox + me is the scumteam, then?

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

I was joking because of your bracketed part
If saying that is scummy, point out to me why it's incorrect?

hmmm fine I accept your joke and find it funny, so there

I just think it's obviously not true that "I'm good at scum, I'm not playing in a towny way, therefore I'm town" is a good, logical syllogism. I think of myself as good at scum, and I've still had at least one scumgame where I'm caught for not being as towny as all these active highposting townies
I don't think you've been extremely scummy on your own, no. If you'd been playing similar to the way you are now without the "and you should all be townreading me for it!" I'd probably be closer to a nullread (though my PoE still suggests you might be scum).
But insisting that you should be townread for not playing towny is, well, scummy. It just is.

I don't agree that this gamestate would be easy to replace into as scum and start tossing out reads. It's a complicated lylo: if toog is survivor or traitor then scum!you can't coordinate with him well, townies are giving vague reads and then changing them quickly, given the 3P element it's possible scum!you doesn't have all the setup info, etc.

If you want some space to town it up, fine. I'm not even voting you, and I'm not in a rush to end the day. But I do think it's scummy that you're not playing in a towny way, you're acknowledging that, and then you're asking to be townread for it.

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

what would be your expectations from me?

If it were me replacing in, I'd jump right and get my feet wet while also diving into ISOs, looking for AI content
I don't know if I have a specific expectation for what town you should do here, but I do think it makes sense for scum!Auro to try to pocket his pal Irrelephant (which you've successfully done as scum before), give some space for town to decide whether or not it wants to mislynch, and lightly defend yourself to avoid getting too much scrutiny

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Probabilites over possibilities works when the player isn't trying to self-meta WIFOM their way into being townread
When it's obvious that WIFOM and self-awareness is intentionally being used, probabilities stop being useful.

After every player has posted we'll see if {two players who aren't pisskop, rhinox, or toogeloo} is still a possibility for the scumteam. If it's not, I'm probably never voting mastina or Yay, which leaves me sorting between pisskop, rhinox, and you.

Though I guess {toogeloo, pisskop} could be the scumteam if you're town, auro. There's enough about the 3 missing players and their contribution to the setup that I don't know that makes it a realistic option

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Sure, one of those is the better play as scum.
I agree that, if you're scum, you didn't do the better play.

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Maybe, if you're too busy and/or confused about the gamestate to make the better play
You've really narrowed my scumread of you into one little point that we could debate endlessly. It's a pretty minor part of my scumread on you, though, and its dependent on too many assumptions (you're busy, but not too busy to play better if you're scum; you'd make the best play possible as scum always; you don't make mistakes; scum!you doesn't have anything complicated going on behind the scenes like trying to figure out who to gift with a PR or something) for me to ever flip from a scumread to a townread

If you're town, great. You're not who I want to lynch in this moment and hopefully circumstances and your future play make that clear.
I think my PoE makes sense and has limited things extremely, making scum!you fairly likely. That's where I'm at

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

In other news i have no idea how to read pk

Mastina i literally have no ide how you're reaching some of your conclusions

~ skitter

[ElevenThirty]

I also dont know who to vote here

[ElevenThirty]

that was very helpful, thank you, i appreciate that

[ElevenThirty]

But yea, I need to stop being lazy. ive been lazy since i came back to the site.

you've made 309 posts in the last week in mini normal 2080 which just ended where you were town. originally I was looking for who was online during the time yay was voting 1130 and found you were actively posting for 5 hours straight in that game partially overlapping the timeframe I was looking at. you haven't been lazy, you've been selectively lazy.

Like i said, absolutely cant read him

[ElevenThirty]

Mastina i dont understand your auro read

^^^ skitter

[ElevenThirty]

@mastina is there any chance you are withholding night action info

@toogeloo are you responsible for any of the PRs (not sure I'll believe your answer but willing to hear it anyway)

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

@rhinox does the timing, method, etc of you receiving your vig shot match mastina's?

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

could it be {Mastina+Auro}? 1130 are you sure Mastina+yay have to be the same alignment?

I'm not certain, but they are. Basically I'm putting the burden of sorting each other on each other. If one of them is town, they're not going to vote the other anyway, so might as well treat them as the same alignment

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Also yes, mastina + rhinox is now a 1v1.

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

I'm rejecting this 1v1 btw

meaning you disagree it's a 1v1 or you don't want to vote in this particular 1v1?

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Because it's 100% a 1v1, or else we're not in lylo (because toog is groupscum with one other player)

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

aren't you 100% confident mastina is town here
why reject the 1v1

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

In that case toogeloo is scum
I am still up for lynching toogeloo to eliminate possibilities, for the record

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

I do not care if survivor!toogeloo wins. I appreciate that it would be nice of me to care, but I have to go far out of the way of my own wincon to accommodate his, and there's a nonzero chance his wincon is directly contradictory to mine. I don't see why we're not lynching him. If he wanted to not get policy lynched in lylo his play should have helped us catch scum

If we lynch toogeloo, he flips survivor, and mastina/rhinox dies, the other is confirmed scum. If we lynch toogeloo and he flips survivor and someone else dies, we go into lylo with a 1v1 already in place. If we lynch toogeloo and he flips scum, hooray
-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Just realized there's a chance Old Dogs was always a 2-shot roleblocker and I should reread to see if she ever had a clear

[ElevenThirty]

meh, can't find any softs

[ElevenThirty]

I'm rejecting this 1v1 btw

yea. that vig alone is pretty town

VOTE: toogeloo

[ElevenThirty]

lol accidental quote

-the past three posts and this one are irrel

pedit: my "lack of softs" was about Old Dogs, nothe vig shots

[ElevenThirty]

would what be the best kill fir scumstina?

the same exact kill. It was on town and is easy to claim for towncred in lylo

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Nothing I say is going to push the lynch on anybody else ao just lynch toog

~ Pichu

I mean today's lynch is always in {mastina, toog, rhinox} no?

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

There's confirmed 1 or more scum in that group

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

auro who's scum here ?

also btw irrel had something come up irl so i think it's just going to be me for the rest of the game

~ skitter

[ElevenThirty]

Sorry, why does the mastina/you 1v1 still hold after the toog scumflip?

[ElevenThirty]

I think Mastina should be cleared, I'll treat her as town.

why

[ElevenThirty]

i townread rhinox more than mastina, i think
which i'm sure is causing ank to yell at me from the dead thread but

[ElevenThirty]

i still think auro is kinda scummy

i probably most want to lynch him out of anyone

brb investigating things

[ElevenThirty]

i wish i knew how to read pk

[ElevenThirty]

voted was really townie tho
hmmm

[ElevenThirty]

What.

Why did I just become a masonizer?

I gained that role, but it wasn't the role I started with.

gah i hate this sort of thing

[ElevenThirty]

@mod

would we know if you replaced one of the players who cannot post? could the new player post an ego post if they placed into one of the restricted slots?

But wait,

IM THE DOC!!

VOTE: insomnia

hmmmm

[ElevenThirty]

Chickadee (5): The Three Musketeers, insomnia, pisskop, Vorkuta, zeebu

well this wagon popped up as the first toog wagon was a thing and everyone on it flipped town except pk

pk was also posting while the toog wagon was a thing and completely ignored it

[ElevenThirty]

Chickadee (5): The Three Musketeers, insomnia, pisskop, Vorkuta, zeebu

This is awful

Can we wagon toog instead?

^^^ all of that was skitter

VOTE: toog

Im convinced

Then I'll ask you a question - why do you think Toog would try to pick fight with Old dogs early D1 by proposing survivor claim quicklynch?

~Aramis

To take a stance and make it known they are just an empty slot?

these pk interactions are ... not great, actually

[ElevenThirty]

Not sure what I'm at, but oh well...

I'm a Neutral-Aligned Survivor. I have no abilities other than my vote. I win when any other faction has secured it's own victory conditions and I am still alive.

This is the predominant reason I have been pushing zeebu, especially because of the claim that they had some kind of action, and that I really had no direction this game since I've never been a Survivor and have no idea the best way to play it. I figured I would start with town hunting and try and coast on Day 1. My stance as town is that third parties are detriments to town, regardless of role, so I tried to emulate that a bit as well.

Im sure we'll even see scum pretending to be a survivor!

i wonder how ironic pk is ... ?

My reads haven't changed much.

I liked YVG early on, Voted seems rather obvious, and Old Dogs is probably town as well. I don't have a problem with Chickadee really, it's just a survival thing.

would he put a fellow scum buddy in here is the question ?

[ElevenThirty]

Like Im kind of okay not killing toog today in favor of someone else. If he isnt scum coasting then we're wasting our time.

[ElevenThirty]

as of now, all votes on Toogeloo are removed and none more can be added until day 2.

HAHAHAHAHAHA

I like you strange 3p guy

Hot Take:

- All of our non-posting players are town and they are also collectively governers.

Toogeloo (1): ElevenThirty, pisskop, chickadee, old dogs, zeebu

everyone on here flipped town, except for pk
(and obviously me but i'm writing from my pov so )

[ElevenThirty]

I feel like you all should be a bit more receptive to how shady I think the zeebu slot is, and I think I am justified replacing my vote.

Unvote;
Vote: zeebu

Ill join
VOTE: zeebu

pk in short i think ur interactions with toog are ... not great, in retrospect

[ElevenThirty]

Im the first person to SR toog, the first to lead a charge on him, and the first to point out you asshats lynched him when i was at work

uh no, i literally quoted what actually happened like three posts above this; nice try

[ElevenThirty]

actually apparently i didn't, one sec, i'll quote it for you now

[ElevenThirty]

pk i think u are scum here

[ElevenThirty]

i don't know who would kill yay, sure, i agree the nk makes little sense

also didn't they recant the townread at some point ? or did i make that part up

[ElevenThirty]

ok, what do you think i'm making up then ?

[ElevenThirty]

Spoiler:

VOTE: toog

mostly just snarky nai

yes- this is town!vork speaking, how may I help you?

VOTE: toog

do this with me

VOTE: toog
I can do that

i would not be surprised if toog and insomnia are in a scumgroup together

Me neither tbh

Me and tog are scum lovers, if we get vig shot we both die

Thats a good vig shot then.

But wait,

IM THE DOC!!

VOTE: insomnia

ummmmm, opps.


gdi vork. you see what you made me do?

.....
How is this on me
VOTE: insomnia

i would call this neither being 'the first person to scumread toog', nor 'the first person to lead a charge on him'

in fact, i would maybe call this 'diverting the wagon as a scumbuddy gets wagoned'

[ElevenThirty]

i'm a little nervous scum!mastina makes that kill to 'conf' themselves as town if ank was misreading her

or i could be wifoming it and she's just town

idk

[ElevenThirty]

could you at least get my name right, ty

[ElevenThirty]

i mean ok .... ?

and that is relevant to the diverting the wagon off of toog bit because ... ?

[ElevenThirty]

and that is relevant to the diverting the wagon off of toog bit because ... ?

[ElevenThirty]

also didn't they recant the townread at some point ? or did i make that part up

yeah i was mistaken on this bit, sorry, take this back

[ElevenThirty]

and that is relevant to the diverting the wagon off of toog bit because ... ?

[ElevenThirty]

yep

[ElevenThirty]

anyways i don't think ur associatives with toog are good

i'm also skeptical that:

a) the chick wagon that sprung up while toog was getting wagoned the first time was all town (you're the only unflipped person on it; everyone else was town)

b) the entire toog wagon before he got governed was town (me and you are the only unflipped people on it)

c) you tried to divert the wagon off of toog

[ElevenThirty]

Thats such a shortsighted case tho.

Its like focused on one person and on mostly one day, and it completely lacks originality, and taking into account all the townreads on me. Everyone except your sorry ass TRs me.

ok, why do you think i should be townreading you here?

also i think the first toog wagon is a p relevant and important part of the game in light of the flip, and i think it's worthwhile to go back there and look for interactions

i think you look the worse there

[ElevenThirty]

On D1 I was on them tho.

You guys were the bad ones who let them persist.

what does this even mean?

[ElevenThirty]

uh making two comments about how you think his posting is bad/you want to lynch him over 800 posts without actually voting him does not constitute a real push, try again

it reads as half-assed distancing

[ElevenThirty]

On D1 I was on them tho.

You guys were the bad ones who let them persist.

what does this even mean?

[ElevenThirty]

On D1 I was on them tho.

You guys were the bad ones who let them persist.

what does this even mean?

[ElevenThirty]

On D1 I was on them tho.

You guys were the bad ones who let them persist.

what does this even mean?

[ElevenThirty]

you're incredibly annoying to play with

[ElevenThirty]

i'm not sure if/why i actually expect anything different but wow is this frustrating

[ElevenThirty]

i mean, you seem to do the same thing no matter what your position in the gamestate is so

[ElevenThirty]

You need to have faith in Papa Pisskop.

He'll lead you unto the promised land.

right

and what about the last week makes you think this is a thing that's going to happen if you play like this ... ?

[ElevenThirty]

i mean that's not what i felt like happened from my pov at all, but ok

[ElevenThirty]

you repeatedly ignored me and refused to claim in mylo

and when i gave up and voted you you decided to literally scumclaim

[ElevenThirty]

i'm apparently awful at reading you then ... your point being?

like that didn't help me read you then, this convo isn't helping me read you now, all that it's doing is making me frustrated

[ElevenThirty]

and how am i supposed to tell the difference ?

also i don't think it's inherently problematic that you did not 'murderhobo' toog

what i said is that i think your interactions with the first toog wagon back on day1 look worst out of everyone still alive

[ElevenThirty]

hijjop90uvfyuuy

[ElevenThirty]

these are my feelings on this game rn ^^^^^

[ElevenThirty]

auro's pred was p townie tho

i think it's basically:

one scum in rhinox/mastina
and one in auro/pk

[ElevenThirty]

i mean i can point out that shopping for a lynch and voting people in an indeterminate state of lylo is not a great idea, but whatever

[ElevenThirty]

i think mastina is scummier than rhinox
which i'm sure is causing ank to get annoyed with me in the dead thread

and auro is p scummy (scummier thank pk) but his pred was p townie

so this is fun

[ElevenThirty]

there's also a mechanical 1v1 between mastina and rhinox but you know

[ElevenThirty]

i'm not pulling the divisions out of thin air, you realize, right?

there's a mechanical 1v1 between mastina and rhinox

[ElevenThirty]

nor do i understand why having a vig shot makes mastina town

[ElevenThirty]

auro when are you going to be useful ... ?

[ElevenThirty]

Sorry, why does the mastina/you 1v1 still hold after the toog scumflip?

Well sure I think the toogflip pretty much makes me town but mechanically if there were 2scum in {auro, pk, 1130} then I would have been hammered while I had votes on me from toog and mastina so therefore if there are still 2 scum left one has to be mastina/me.

[ElevenThirty]

a) again, can you get our name right?

b) does the 1v1 not matter to you or ?

[ElevenThirty]

I think Mastina should be cleared, I'll treat her as town.

why

[ElevenThirty]

other than this ^^^ 3125 is just a lot of fence-sitting

[ElevenThirty]

it's not arbitrary, it's mechanical, why would it not be important, why is mastina town, why would we not want to sort the 1v1 , so many questions

[ElevenThirty]

Do you not trust Yay's Mastina read?

i should but i don't, unfortunately

maybe i just should and wash my hands of responsibility for the loss

pedit that wasn't me, that was irrel. i didn't mind that he did it but technically that wasn't me

[ElevenThirty]

why is mastina town

She has a gun? A not-scumkill gun?

i mean and ... ?

this isn't a normal; she could be an sk; scum could have a factional extra nk for all i know, it's a mbos game

[ElevenThirty]

What are your concerns with Mastina - tl;dr? Irrel isn't going to play the rest of the game, yeah?

i don't get why she's townie; i don't get why pk is townreading her; i'm nervous mastina is going to use the nk as proof that she's town; she hasn't done anything that i know how to townread

i do know htat ank was townreading her so maybe i should just sheep that but sheeping (in lylo no less!) feels kinda wrong

maye i should just trust irrel's logic but i'm kinda confused why scum(not mastina) kill yay - it just conftowns mastina to irrel so it makes their lylo that much harder ? like why does scum (not mastina) kill yay over mastina there? killing mastina puts in place a us/yay confrontation; killing yay makes irrel townread mastina; the former seems like a much better outcome for scum than the latter

irrel isn't going to play for the immediate future

i don't know how long this game will last and i don't know how long his irl thing will last so idk if he might come back much later if teh game is still ongoing but for the immediate future it's just me

[ElevenThirty]

like if we assume mastina is town why does yay die
that's the part htat's confusing me

pedit but why does yay die over mastina if they're both town then ?

[ElevenThirty]

Your disagreement is that you townread Rhinox more than Mastina, yeah? What made Rhinox town, tl;dr?

thinking things at the same time we thought them + having similar thought processes to us

[ElevenThirty]

right, so my point is why does yay die and not mastina

irrel would have townread the other if one flipped, so why is yay the one that flipped

obviously this is from my pov but i know i'm town, and we all know that yay was town

which is better for scum:

a) mastina alive, who irrel townreads
b) yay alive, who irrel townreads, but who wants us dead

from my pov obviously scum prefer the latter but that didn't happen

[ElevenThirty]

i don't get it

and idk, really no way of knowing

[ElevenThirty]

old dogs could have blocked someone but i have no way of knowing that

nominally we could have been shot n3 and we didn't die since we became bp that night (was anyone visited by mastina last night?)
not very likely but technically possible

pedit sigh rhinox claimed it

[ElevenThirty]

i don't know rn

you're scummier than pk but your pred was town and i don't know how to synthesize that rn

[ElevenThirty]

rhinox claimed it

idk what rhino claimed.

ascetic townie who was given a vig shot and who shot zeebu; that's what prompted the mastina vote on him

fwiw krazy (pikachu of the yay hydra) thought the shot came from the trifecta to

[ElevenThirty]

pk feels like he's solving (i think? from what i understand about the game, at least)
and i don't see you doing that really

[ElevenThirty]

*about his game

[ElevenThirty]

ascetic townie who was given a vig shot and who shot zeebu; that's what prompted the mastina vote on him

an sk mastin who is planning on only making one kill and claiming vig is skilled enough to do that . . ..

but i dont think so. tbh id want to think it over.

me and irrel were slightly paranoid she's an arsonist who lit up n3

i'm still confused why she visited voted (auro) twice

[ElevenThirty]

and i don't see you doing that really

After I offered a solve?

you didn't; you called mastina town and left it at that

[ElevenThirty]

maybe we should just trust yay
bleh idk

[ElevenThirty]

i'm not sure why i had to prod you to take it to the logical conclusion or why you're townreading me
pedit because of his vote on you ?

[ElevenThirty]

me and irrel were slightly paranoid she's an arsonist who lit up n3

yea but rhino claimed a kill?

yes and ?

[ElevenThirty]

i don't know

arso is a tinfoil hat theory; i don't know why she would have double-dosed voted or why they didn't die

i'm not sure it makes much sense

it's something that occured to us and so i shared it

more probably either scum and/or the trifecta gave out vigs to people

i'm still confused why mastina's changed role seems to be different from mine

[ElevenThirty]

i think the problem i'm having with trusting ank is that i don't really think rhinox is scummy rn

[ElevenThirty]

Auro did you not get fruit?

And what's the point of visiting someone who's ascetic

[ElevenThirty]

I guess if i was scum with anybody i could have hammered someone?
I havent gone thru all the permutations so idk

I'm really really confused why mastina visits someone she's scumreading for being ascetic

[ElevenThirty]

i mean, scum have daytalk, but you know

[ElevenThirty]

Present. Not hammering anyone. Back in a couple hours.

and again, did you not get fruit or ... ?

[ElevenThirty]

so what's the point of asking that then

[ElevenThirty]

But boy does that look kinda like a 'hey Partner, are you on rn, lemme know' post

if you know there's daytalk what's the point of this post

[ElevenThirty]

What's the scum motivation in it?

A) why didnt you claim it before
B) idk what this is referring to

[ElevenThirty]

I'm really really confused why mastina visits someone she's scumreading for being ascetic

Does anyone find this to be weird, or is this just me ?

[ElevenThirty]

What on earth is a 'successful visit'?

[ElevenThirty]

I do, yes. But, scum motivation?
I think she's just not really keeping track of the game?

And she's very very clearly aware he claimed ascetic

There's quite a lot of incongruities in her mechanical play/claims that are bothering me

[ElevenThirty]

Thats not how visitor works tho

If she wanted to test the ascetic why didnt she fruit-vend him?

[ElevenThirty]

Mastina i'm trying to decide rn if i should just sheep ank

[ElevenThirty]

But in a void. Left to my own devices. Not taking into account their feedback. I'd be locktowning Auro here absolutely.

From my pov, the game is:
One of you/rhinox
One of pk/auro

I think out of all of these i most want to lynch pk but the fact that i just mislynched him in mylo makes me hesitatnt to trust that read

[ElevenThirty]

Oh also I thought Toogeloo was scum until he claimed survivor; I as scum would not have thought of the idea of claiming 3P; I as scum would not have told Toogeloo to claim 3P; Toogeloo knows me well enough to know that I pretty much never doubt 3P claims so has more incentive to pull off the 3P claim with me as town specifically so I'd be inclined to defend him.

Ok so who here does, that's the question

I would, but incidentally I happen to know I'm not scum here

[ElevenThirty]

pedit but why does yay die over mastina if they're both town then ?

Aside from how the 1v1 between Rhinox and I was left unresolved?
Aside from how the 1v1 between you and Yayvideogames was considered by many to be "quite possibly TvT"?
Aside from how Yayvideogames at various points during D4 scumread most of the players?
Aside from how Yayvideogames was on the scum lynch whereas I wasn't?

How about just the fact that Yayvideogames is made up of three players who each on their own as solo players are more competent than I am, yet alone when together in a hydra?

Right

I'm slightly burnt out and i dont feel like i'm as ~sharp~ as i usually am rn

That's partly why sheeping feels so appealing rn, sigh

[ElevenThirty]

And what's the point of visiting someone who's ascetic

I was hoping, to be honest, that someone in the game received a tracker power (a near-universal power present in MBOS games) and tracked me last night.

Fruit Vending to Auro would ensure that half of my action was 100% confirmed to have gone through because he'd claim to receive the fruit and the tracker would have seen that--leaving a tracker tracking me as then being able to test whether my visit on Rhinox went through or not.

Vice-versa doesn't work as well. If I fruit vended to Rhinox and visited Auro, then the only proof to be had is IF Rhinox received the fruit AND chose to claim he received the fruit (something he very well may choose not to). A tracker tracking me to only Auro wouldn't know that it was a visit to Auro; a tracker tracking me to both Auro and Rhinox wouldn't know that it was fruit vending to Rhinox unless Rhinox claimed the fruit.

It just seemed like the smarter play.

Ok this actually makes sense, i think

[ElevenThirty]

I guess i'm at rhinox/pk rn but i'm not confident in it

[ElevenThirty]

i think your problem is that you townread engagement. you think that because people spew abstract opinions your way they're town

Well not engagement, exactly, more the second bit - people posting things and thoughts that make sense to me makes me want to townread

It's a bit of a problem

[ElevenThirty]

Youve seen example after example of why that isnt a good metric tho. Its not about respecting their opinion or w.e.


I like to analyze intent, not content. Why people do things, and when, is far, far more telling than what they do.

i know it isn't; but it's something that i have a lot of trouble with; this is kinda like my blindspot

for example: i've townread scum!implosion i think three times now because he makes sense to me
i know that i do this each time, but i have trouble distinguishing between 'making sense' and 'towntelling' for some players, and rhinox is in that category apparently

[ElevenThirty]

I bet a reiso of voted would reveal his dark and insidious nature given what we know about auro.

i actually reread a lot of day1 and he's one of the towniest players there so