The Mystery Box Of Silver 5: Clash of Cash death grips

[Auro]

I see this more as fear of losing rather than trying to win

Or, trying to win by being patient?

[YAYVIDEOGAMES]

I hope you understand that the odds that at least one scum is very good at planning out endgames exists in this game is on the high side

right

[ElevenThirty]

Auro since you're obviously paying enough attention to pop in when you get voted do u have any thoughgs on recent developments?

[YAYVIDEOGAMES]

I find it really stupid that we're treating a likely 4v2v1 situation as "WE HAVE TO GET RID OF THE SURVIVOR BECAUSE THEY MIGHT SCUMSIDE!!!!!!!!" as irrel helpfully called it

the justification is that toog is never town, but it's just as true that toog is not always scum

if toog is scum traitor, then there's no real reason to kill him first because we can just try to hunt down both scum and treat it like a straight lylo anyways
if toog is survivor, then scum can't really blackmail him because nightkilling him is just straight up BAD for them, so toog has no reason not to go with the majority lynch, which is town controlled
if toog is groupscum, then he just gets lynched in 3p

either way we're literally losing a town voice to get rid of a likely survivor that is forced to townside or a traitor that doesn't actually benefit town to kill first

and considering that the majority of players still alive are competent at planning out endgames, that's just a net benefit for them

~ Pichu

[Auro]

Mastina feels town
Pisskop, no clue
Krazy felt scummy for that bad push on me
You feel town
Rhinox, no clue
Still think we should Lynch Tog

[YAYVIDEOGAMES]

this bullshit didn't help last day phase because the obvious "WE HAVE TO KILL THIS TODAY" lynch was on town

so stop going by what is optimal or whatever the fuck because it's outright not the best play in this case and you literally let Irrel have a free opportunity to damage control that slot by having him focus so hard on that

~ Pichu

[YAYVIDEOGAMES]

auro please tell me that you see the similarities between irrel in the first CoC and this game

because he sure as fuck feels a lot closer to that than he did in port arthur

~ Pichu

[Auro]

If it's 4v2v1 that explains the lack of quickhammer if Tog is NS

[Auro]

I'll take a closer look.

[YAYVIDEOGAMES]

ngl I'm pretty sure toog is just traitor

2 scum in a game of this size is stupid, I'm sorry

3 scum and a survivor still alive is stupid, I'm sorry

~ Pichu

[YAYVIDEOGAMES]

LOL we're definitely losing this game

Town is too scummy

-pika

[Rhinox]

Did Rhinox flake?

No?

[Rhinox]

wait pk is voting him

actually i'm not sure this thought process is helpful at all

pk is not scum with 2 of {us/yay/auro}

is that right ?

yay voted you for like 18 hours or something too

So... One of you 2 are scum,

or traitor makes a lot of sense.

My question is...

ngl I'm pretty sure toog is just traitor

2 scum in a game of this size is stupid, I'm sorry

3 scum and a survivor still alive is stupid, I'm sorry

~ Pichu

This is yet another reason why toog is the best lynch today

So why is he not the best lynch now?


Pisskop voting me... Well he's probably scum anyways, so whatever


I'll address mastina more tomorrow when I have a keyboard but until then think about why TF would I even bother claiming ascetic as scum, let alone later claiming to no longer be? I claimed last today I think. If I'm scum ascetic, I didn't need to claim it and draw attention to myself because I already knew nobody ever targeted me anyways. If I'm straight fakeclaiming I didn't need to claim anything other than vt. Simpler answer is what I claimed is what happened

[YAYVIDEOGAMES]

rhinox tell me in simple terms why 2978 is wrong

~ Pichu

[YAYVIDEOGAMES]

Mastina feels town
Pisskop, no clue
Krazy felt scummy for that bad push on me
You feel town
Rhinox, no clue
Still think we should Lynch Tog

It's beginning to smell a lot like scum auro

(Musical theme)

Lol ank and alisae both want to burn skitter to the ground and here I am tempted to lynch scum auro over toog

Hey skittles what you think on auro?

-pika

[Rhinox]

rhinox tell me in simple terms why 2978 is wrong

~ Pichu

2978 is wrong because of 2984.

There should be 3 groupscum in a game this size. There's been a number of votes thrown around today. So either the votes are on/by scum, or the 3 groupscum can't coordinate. This fits with unrecruited traitor.

We also can't afford to be picky right now. We need a scum lynch. If toog provides the best odds at that, we should lynch it. The side benefit of a Toog lynch is that there doesn't appear to be any possible way we can lose if we lynch toog. That's not the primary reason, just the safety net. The primary reason is that toog is likely scum, not that "WE HAVE TO GET RID OF THE SURVIVOR BECAUSE THEY MIGHT SCUMSIDE!!!!!!!!"

The most negative possible outcomes are:

-we lynch toog and flips surivivor. We lose because mastina is actually SK and multiple kills fuck us right up. well, we're not likely winning 3-2-1-1 anyways.
-we lynch toog and flips surivivor. townvoice dies. we move on to a straight 3-2 lylo with a reduced lynchpool for better odds at finding the 2. i really don't consider losing a townvoice that much of a negative in the calculus, as it helps us narrow down (and the townvoices have been pretty wrong so far anyways but I digress)

By ignoring toog as possible scum, save for later, you're forcing 4-2 mylo essentially where there is the distinct possibility of losing the game with a mislynch, the odds of mislynching are greater, and toog is over there ready to contribute to a mislynch whether he's scum or survivor. as 1130 tried to explain earlier, worst case scenario, lynching toog today is the functional equivalence of no lynching in mylo. Best case scenario he's scum. same outcome for town either way.

Not only the above, but say we do manage to lynch scum today. Tomorrow we're in the same situation, where its 3-1 mylo + toog. by ignoring toog until the end, we have to have to beat mylo odds 2 straight lynches - only worse than mylo odds because of the toog factor.

pisskop is the only lynch i'd consider today if toog lynch is off the table. i think he's fairly obviously scum at this point

[pisskop]

VOTE: rhinox

[ElevenThirty]

I have thoughts.

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Ank has anyone ever told you you're sorta Shoshin-y (or vice versa)

-Irrel

[ElevenThirty]

Oh except I guess you know how to play as scum

-Irrel

[YAYVIDEOGAMES]

idk how to take that

~ Pichu

[ElevenThirty]

I hope you understand that the odds that at least one scum is very good at planning out endgames exists in this game is on the high side

right

Sure, most players in this playerlist will make the correct kill.
Do you also advocate "Never no lynch in mylo"?

I find it really stupid that we're treating a likely 4v2v1 situation as "WE HAVE TO GET RID OF THE SURVIVOR BECAUSE THEY MIGHT SCUMSIDE!!!!!!!!" as irrel helpfully called it

the justification is that toog is never town, but it's just as true that toog is not always scum

if toog is scum traitor, then there's no real reason to kill him first because we can just try to hunt down both scum and treat it like a straight lylo anyways
if toog is survivor, then scum can't really blackmail him because nightkilling him is just straight up BAD for them, so toog has no reason not to go with the majority lynch, which is town controlled
if toog is groupscum, then he just gets lynched in 3p

either way we're literally losing a town voice to get rid of a likely survivor that is forced to townside or a traitor that doesn't actually benefit town to kill first

and considering that the majority of players still alive are competent at planning out endgames, that's just a net benefit for them

~ Pichu

"the majority of players still alive are competent at planning out endgames" sounds like meaningless fearmongering. Nobody says in mylo "we can't no lynch!! We'll lost the best town voice!!!" Like yes duh you lose a townie and more often than not that townie had good reads so you try to NKA and get it right

auro please tell me that you see the similarities between irrel in the first CoC and this game

because he sure as fuck feels a lot closer to that than he did in port arthur

~ Pichu

Are those the only games of mine you're familiar with because the distinction isn't whether or not I'm town it's whether or not I'm in a hydra

Shoshin, who knows my game better than 98% of the players onsite, was 100% certain I was town in CoC. I don't think you know how to read me and I'm certain I've passed beyond my scumrange and it's pissing me off that you're still shading our slot.

I'll take a closer look.

But also you might be town, Yay, because I agree that "it's beginning to look a lot like scum Auro"

wait pk is voting him

actually i'm not sure this thought process is helpful at all

pk is not scum with 2 of {us/yay/auro}

is that right ?

yay voted you for like 18 hours or something too

So... One of you 2 are scum,

or traitor makes a lot of sense.

I don't think one of us has to be scum based on that? If it's 2 scum + survivor they might have just failed to coordinate

Mastina feels town
Pisskop, no clue
Krazy felt scummy for that bad push on me
You feel town
Rhinox, no clue
Still think we should Lynch Tog

It's beginning to smell a lot like scum auro

(Musical theme)

Lol ank and alisae both want to burn skitter to the ground and here I am tempted to lynch scum auro over toog

Hey skittles what you think on auro?

-pika

The one thing skitter has said to me in discord re: auro is that his pop ins have been scummily timed

townvoice dies. we move on to a straight 3-2 lylo with a reduced lynchpool for better odds at finding the 2. i really don't consider losing a townvoice that much of a negative in the calculus, as it helps us narrow down (and the townvoices have been pretty wrong so far anyways but I digress)

This is like a hilariously good reason to lynch toog

-Irrel

[YAYVIDEOGAMES]

Are those the only games of mine you're familiar with because the distinction isn't whether or not I'm town it's whether or not I'm in a hydra

Shoshin, who knows my game better than 98% of the players onsite, was 100% certain I was town in CoC. I don't think you know how to read me and I'm certain I've passed beyond my scumrange and it's pissing me off that you're still shading our slot.

ok

so this tells me that you're good at manipulating your meta

so why should I be townreading you(?)

~ Pichu

[ElevenThirty]

idk how to take that

~ Pichu

yeah it was a weird thought

My point was that you/skitter arguments reads exactly like this game where skitter/shoshin argued a lot in lylo
Skitter was like "your points aren't clear and you aren't making logical sense, maybe that makes you scum idk?" and shoshin was like "well you're defending someone I'm sure is scum so I'm scumreading you so I'm not going to help you understand my pov"

If this is a good parallel game, rhinox and/or auro is the scum trying to appeal to skitter's/my sense of logic like nsg did to skitter there

Okay let me organize my thoughts there's a lot that's happened

-Irrel

pedit: Because I don't go outside my scumrange every towngame. This game I have, though - specifically in that one long emotional post I am

certain

I couldn't fake as scum

[YAYVIDEOGAMES]

Sure, most players in this playerlist will make the correct kill.
Do you also advocate "Never no lynch in mylo"?

idk

I generally don't make it to mylo

but I expect it depends on how I think endgame is going to play out

~ Pichu