FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt (Game Over!)


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Post Post #234 (isolation #0) » Mon Aug 31, 2020 2:47 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

So, my Noble Phantasm ability is somewhat negative utility. But I'm guessing there are players with who I have some compatibility. When it's fully charged, I can use it during the day and anyone voting me at that time has one charge taken away. I get a list of their attributes but not who has what (unless I have a master, then I learn what each of them got). Knowing attributes has no relation to the rest of my role though, so as for why that's my Noble Phantasm I really don't know. As a side note, I was told votes against the town master won't be processed (when I asked Cabd about this, he said it'd count as an unvote at best).

I can also grant others their "with a master" upgrade, though I didn't think it'd be this common so I feel kind of betrayed. I was gonna crusade to be made the master in this phase, but learning it's not rare has left me feeling a bit dismayed. Knowing it's so common makes me not want it anymore. Plus being an innocent child is always such a bore. I'll probably just end up voting whoever I feel best about. I dunno, I guess I'll wait and see how this phase plays out.

One idea I was considering was a partial mass "with a master" claim. I think it might actually be somewhat of a boon in this game. People could co-ordinate the "with a master" upgrade and scum would be held accountable for any decisions they've made.
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Post Post #237 (isolation #1) » Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:17 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

The answer to your question is more or less no. I've skimmed bits and pieces but I'm currently on the go.

Servant Archer is probably scum though.
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Post Post #239 (isolation #2) » Mon Aug 31, 2020 3:52 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Unless you thought attributes were a red herring, it's not like that's some unknown info I'm airing. I'm betting your true name and traits matter too though I'm currently unsure about how exactly they do.
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Post Post #245 (isolation #3) » Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:50 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 244, Servant Beast wrote:Archer and Alter Ego are scum
!

I am wondering if you were seeing what I saw or if these are just two separate reads and no more.

(I'm personally less certain about Alter Ego. They do have some weird interactions so far though.)
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Post Post #261 (isolation #4) » Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:43 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 258, Servant Rider wrote:Which of Alter's interactions bother you?
"They" was referring to Archer and Alter Ego. Just read interactions in double-ISO.
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Post Post #269 (isolation #5) » Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:49 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 267, Servant Avenger wrote:When I got my role pm I noted that information was there, thought about whether it was a loophole. Whether other players had it. Whether scum have that information or not. But berserker did not think that
Uh... to be fair, at first I thought it was unique so this doesn't seem like a good critique. Why would anyone default assume their Noble Phantasm was shared? Not thinking that makes more sense until it was declared.

(I say this as someone who realised I wasn't alone in pregame, but my reasons for reaching that conclusion are not the same.)
In post 268, Servant Alter Ego wrote:I think I see what caught your attention in at least the first few posts, but I'm not sure why you think 2 scum would interact that way.
I'm not really sure what you're trying to say. Why wouldn't two scum interact in that way?
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Post Post #273 (isolation #6) » Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:23 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Oh, I don't really care about what happened page one, I'm looking at other things that you two have done.

It's more looking at how Archer is talking with you. Though I feel much worse about him when it comes to you two.
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Post Post #299 (isolation #7) » Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:32 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 292, Servant Ruler wrote:The only way for scum to get the information is for Cabd to go out of their way to give it to them while letting town figure it out for themselves.
While I like(d) your thinking, your reasoning is flawed. Scum could have figured it out with no help from the mod.

Think about how getting elected would seal their fate, then think about how they'd expect it to propagate.
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Post Post #302 (isolation #8) » Tue Sep 01, 2020 11:50 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I asked Cabd one question and figured it out. Scum probably did too if they weren't dicking about.
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Post Post #305 (isolation #9) » Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:23 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

With no other info, I don't think that's true? How did you discern that out of the blue? I only figured it out because of my role. (And at first I thought it was Cabd being a troll.)

Also not sure it's something everyone can do? Has every player claimed they have it too?
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Post Post #342 (isolation #10) » Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:33 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 331, Servant Avenger wrote:@cancer don’t elaborate on that.
Uh, to avoid any sort of future complication I feel I should correct this miscommunication. I meant no votes from anyone towards an
elected
town master count (and how that interacts with my Noble Phantasm is paramount). As I think I previously noted, my Noble Phantasm requires me being voted. (I don't currently plan on actually using it, but the topic came up when I asked Cabd about abusing it.)
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Post Post #378 (isolation #11) » Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:17 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

While gunning for the master might seem cooler, a measured approach is apt for a ruler.
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Post Post #387 (isolation #12) » Wed Sep 02, 2020 1:08 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

You could call it a restriction though it is self-imposed, but I'd planned on giving it up even before it was exposed. It's too much effort in considering how my posts are composed so I was thinking it should just be disposed... of.
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Post Post #399 (isolation #13) » Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:25 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 343, Servant Avenger wrote:I spent 30 minutes on my walk thinking about you
I think you're swell too, Avenger.
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Post Post #401 (isolation #14) » Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:50 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I asked if I became the IC and had the entire game vote me (allowing me to learn everyone's attributes), what would happen? Since the IC can't die by
any means
prior to night two this seemed like a pretty good idea. Cabd shut that down by saying the votes won't count.

Not sure what's so difficult to grasp there.
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Post Post #404 (isolation #15) » Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:09 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

FYI, the initial idea was potentially doing what I asked about if I found out learning attributes had some benefit (this was back when I thought my master upgrade was overpowered). Cabd shut that down. That made me go "why the fuck did you even give me that Noble Phantasm then rofl? I cant even use it" then two minutes later go "oh, duh, I'm not the only one who can hand out master upgrades". I figured it be like one, maybe two other people who could do it (it seemed like a pretty overpowered thing to be able to do), didn't realise it was the entire game. *shrug*

I don't actually care about getting the upgrade - I outed it in case someone else might. I personally don't give a shit and I'm not about to reach out to anyone about it - they can reach out to me if they think it has some utility. (Though I did note that I wouldn't be surprised if what Foreigner's hinting at is a complete complement to my role beyond my Noble Phantasm. I don't care enough about it to pursue it.) My entire role is basically negative utility with potential to blast open the game in a positive way if I use it correctly. I figured my Noble Phantasm had the same potential to someone else since I don't give two shits about it.
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Post Post #415 (isolation #16) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:58 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Who does Assassin think should get a master today? There seems to be enough people saying they support him, perhaps Assassin should self-vote.
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Post Post #420 (isolation #17) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:46 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 419, Servant Alter Ego wrote:I'm just about ready to start taking townblock applications.
I think I'm in the top 90% of scum hunters on site. Is that good enough to apply?
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Post Post #423 (isolation #18) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:58 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 421, Servant Avenger wrote:@mooncaster, who’s scum?
Probably Assassin.

Vote: Servant Assassin


: ]
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Post Post #425 (isolation #19) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:18 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I'm not interested in going into theory discussion to explain why I'm voting someone I think is scum, so just accept it for what it is. It boils down to me being too lazy to case people in this game so I'm just going to abuse the mechanic to get a flip on someone a lot of the game is calling town. Worst case scenario from my POV is he's town and I need to reassess lol. I don't care if that happens though. And I don't give a shit if scum get upgrades really, playing around power roles was never a big thing for me.

As for why he's scum, see previous paragraph about being lazy.
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Post Post #426 (isolation #20) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:19 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Well I say I'm lazy. My notes PT is currently 11 pages long and I actually probably could string together all the posts I've made about him there and paste it as a case. But I'm not going to.
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Post Post #430 (isolation #21) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:29 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

If I vote you and Assassin is scum, then I'd actually need to effort to get him out of the game. It's so much easier just to abuse the mechanic to get rid of someone others seem to be heavily town-reading. And I could be wrong, in which case it'll serve as a reset.

I don't really think you're scum so I gain nothing from voting you. TBH, I actually agree with Saber's idea about using the mechanic more than I do anyone else's (though I still think slightly differently about it than he seems to).

To be clear, it's not so much that I want scum to be elected but that I want to use it as a free cop investigation on someone who could very well be scum but isn't being seen as scummy. Assassin isn't my strongest scum read, he's just the one that the least amount of people seem to agree on.
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Post Post #432 (isolation #22) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:52 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

That's only scratching the surface of the potential theory discussion, but also I just meant I'm not going to debate the merits of it. The TL;DR of it is that I don't mind this going into what is essentially 10:3 with overpowered scum but with town having a good headstart on interaction analysis. I don't care to discuss whether this is optimal or sub-optimal.

My other reads are less contentious. Archer and Shielder are probably scum. Currently mulling over who makes the most sense as a fourth, but I also just plan to smoke out anyone I'm unsure about by getting rid of the rest of them first.
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Post Post #457 (isolation #23) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:11 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 443, Servant Rider wrote:Let me get this straight. You have 11 pages of notes. That's more than half the size of this ENTIRE THREAD. You came in here posting everything in rhyme and meter because you felt like it. And yet it's too much effort to tell any of us why you think Assassin is scum? Do I have that right?
Yeah, basically.
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Post Post #460 (isolation #24) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:13 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 457, Servant Moon Cancer wrote:
In post 443, Servant Rider wrote:Let me get this straight. You have 11 pages of notes. That's more than half the size of this ENTIRE THREAD. You came in here posting everything in rhyme and meter because you felt like it. And yet it's too much effort to tell any of us why you think Assassin is scum? Do I have that right?
Yeah, basically.
Actually, 12 pages now, sorry.
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Post Post #462 (isolation #25) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:21 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 444, Servant Assassin wrote:
In post 426, Servant Moon Cancer wrote:Well I say I'm lazy. My notes PT is currently 11 pages long and I actually probably could string together all the posts I've made about him there and paste it as a case. But I'm not going to.
well don't copy-paste, you'll get yourself modkilled

but i can't wait to see those posts in postgame lmao
You know, I've never played with you before and I don't even know you, but you're still the first identity I guessed in this game. (Well, the first one I probably correctly guessed.)

I've been debating whether I should break the spirit of the game and do a meta-dive on you to figure out whether my issues have any substance to them. I don't know if I'll actually bother.
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Post Post #467 (isolation #26) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:58 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 452, Servant Lancer wrote:Moon Cancer, the game's barely started and it sounds like you're already over it
No, I just don't really intend to hash out reads with people. If I think something needs to be asked, I'll ask, but I'm fine just trying to solve the game in my notes PT for a while.
In post 452, Servant Lancer wrote:If you scumread Assassin so hard how about you do literally anything besides vote him as master to flip him?
Because I don't need to? What would doing that achieve in this phase?

If this were a normal game, I'd probably try to get rid of Archer and Shielder before him anyway.
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Post Post #475 (isolation #27) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:41 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Who's my model?
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Post Post #479 (isolation #28) » Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:09 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

One of those games should probably go down in a list of the worst games in the history of ever.

To even suggest reading it makes me think you're a sociopath.
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Post Post #493 (isolation #29) » Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:48 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I don't actually currently think Assassin is scum (though I actually don't mind still electing Assassin).

Archer, Shielder, Rider, someone... probably. Working on it.
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Post Post #494 (isolation #30) » Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:50 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Oh yeah, it's a day ability, Ruler.
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Post Post #496 (isolation #31) » Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:07 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

My read on you?
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Post Post #497 (isolation #32) » Fri Sep 04, 2020 8:07 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Maybe Beast.
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Post Post #548 (isolation #33) » Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:48 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 522, Servant Foreigner wrote:But I just think the paranoia and pointing out "haha I won't play the game". Is something scum wouldn't want to do
In post 546, Servant Foreigner wrote:"They don't like archer, that's town"

That is way too brazen to be scum as well idk.
Heh.
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Post Post #555 (isolation #34) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:18 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I think he was trying to emulate a funny player.

Those are just his town reads vs his not town reads.
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Post Post #575 (isolation #35) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:36 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Two town reads and two scum reads? Heh.
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Post Post #578 (isolation #36) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:54 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

How rude!
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Post Post #580 (isolation #37) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:08 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

You don't really want to know what I'm thinking, it would scar your eyes far worse than anything in Tales of You could have. 14 pages of junk and I basically took a 24-hour hiatus yesterday too.
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Post Post #585 (isolation #38) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:41 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Um, could you please not copy me?

Also, if you would be so kind, could you remind the good people of this game where your scum reads on Shielder and I came from?
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Post Post #589 (isolation #39) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:39 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

If it helps, Foreigner, I'm town.

I probably wouldn't lie about that.
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Post Post #592 (isolation #40) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:31 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

No worries. Anything I can do to help. Other than being helpful.
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Post Post #594 (isolation #41) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:11 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I dunno, a lot of people have asked me a lot of questions that I've just flat-out ignored. I wouldn't say no one was calling me out on it, lol.

Were you worried I'd see your explanations and go "oh yeah I totally agree with that" thereby rendering you unable to form a read on me because of it?
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Post Post #596 (isolation #42) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:15 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Is the reason you're still choosing to withhold explanations because you're worried I'm going to sheep you, thus magically hypnotising you into forming a town read on me? Because that's understandable, if so.
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Post Post #600 (isolation #43) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:30 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 598, Servant Beast wrote:That was my worry at the time (we sometimes call that thing you condescendingly explained as "buddying"), and your ignoring the interaction was not a great result in my book. You can sit on my scum list in time out for now.
Yeah, you certainly seem like the type of player I'd "buddy" over anyone else in this game if I were scum.

I can see why you'd have made that assumption.

And I can understand if that's why you're still choosing to withhold the explanations. I might still be trying to buddy you.

I guess it's important to hold out on my explanation in case I buddy you for yours or something.
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Post Post #609 (isolation #44) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:50 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Making a universal town read the one who gets the master legitimately seems like the worst use of the master phase I can think of. And I've like... thought of a lot of stupid things in this game.
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Post Post #614 (isolation #45) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:53 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

All of you are overvaluing what's essentially just N1 bulletproof (unless scum can kill during the day).

And probably all of you except maybe Saber are overestimating how powerful scum will become if a scum master is elected today.
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Post Post #629 (isolation #46) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:01 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 622, Servant Beast wrote:It's bulletproof IC with enhanced powers, but way to undersell it. And you have no idea how powerful scum could end up being either so you could definitely be underestimating it, consequence evaluation of being wrong vs being right should lead you to believe that we should be voting town. This shouldn't even be an argument.
Yeah, this is why I decided I'm not going to discuss theory with people in this game. I forgot about that. Whoops.
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Post Post #644 (isolation #47) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:08 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Do people think Rider is town? I'd vote Rider. I'd also vote Beast if people think that slot is town.
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Post Post #652 (isolation #48) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:14 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Cabd's probably numb to anything I'm saying by now. My theories about game balance around the master phase are probably the least of it. (I don't even know if he's still reading anything I'm writing, he stopped commenting on my stuff like 7 pages ago.)
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Post Post #660 (isolation #49) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:33 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

? What is meant by "what is meant by commenting"?
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Post Post #664 (isolation #50) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:39 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 661, Servant Archer wrote:isn't a mod not supposed to comment about your notes and stuff?
Probably.
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Post Post #670 (isolation #51) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:46 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 669, Servant Alter Ego wrote:Do you still think using it as an investigation on Assassin is the best option?
Not really using it on him as an investigation at this point so much as none of the other viable options are any better so I cbf moving it elsewhere. It's probably not going to be used in a way I prefer so I don't actually care who gets it of the other current viable candidates.
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Post Post #671 (isolation #52) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 5:55 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Honestly, it doesn't really matter so much who gets it probably. Even if it was wasted on the most obvtown player that ever obvtowned, it's probably inconsequential as far as the outcome of the game is concerned.

I still like thinking about the theory behind the different options but it's not actually going to affect how I play the game. So really, just pick someone and move on instead of worrying about who's better than who tbh.
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Post Post #673 (isolation #53) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:28 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

What's Saber done that you think is town?
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Post Post #681 (isolation #54) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:41 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 674, Servant Assassin wrote:if you could choose to right now who would you use it on
I dunno, the people I think are most likely scum aren't really being town read by anyone atm. That's why I don't actually care.

I guess I'd probably go the opposite route now and use it on a minor town read that isn't being heavily town read by many others, tbh. Maybe Saber? I dunno what the current consensus on that slot is.
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Post Post #686 (isolation #55) » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:55 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I'm pretty awesome as town and dangerous as scum. Or so I've been told. Just treat this game as an exception to the rule. .. ... ...
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Post Post #719 (isolation #56) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:21 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Where does your aversion to voting Avenger come from, Rider? Your trajectory™ on him is weird - at no point do you say you think he's scum, just that you aren't confident in the town read but you also think it's unlikely scum were gunning for master?
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Post Post #737 (isolation #57) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 12:52 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 735, Servant Foreigner wrote:I think it's very possible a scum player could just be campaigning very hard ala the way Avenger or Berserker are in hopes they can ride on some level of a high and leave the game early.
It's the reason I am super hesitant to vote Berserker in particular.
If Berserker is scum, she either went rogue yolo fuck everything, or their plan was to not support her? Who would she be scum with in this scenario?
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Post Post #738 (isolation #58) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 12:56 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

A lot of people in this game have been calling Berserker town IIRC, it wouldn't have been too hard to latch onto that and push the vote if that was the plan lol
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Post Post #739 (isolation #59) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 12:56 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

(Same goes for Avenger really)
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Post Post #745 (isolation #60) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 1:51 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 740, Servant Foreigner wrote:As scum would you want to latch onto it to help push your buddy through?
Or would you try and lay back and wait for town to push it through?
Well, let me reverse the situation and talk about it as though this was a normal day phase.

If you wanted to get rid of a town player, would you help your buddy push it through or would you try and lay back and wait for town to push it through?
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Post Post #756 (isolation #61) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:06 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Hmm. I wasn't really asking those questions because it's what I think, it was more a devil's advocate position based on your assertion that Berserker may have been scum who was trying to get selected. I don't fully agree with your conclusions, but I'll probably just continue this thought experiment in my PT for now.
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Post Post #759 (isolation #62) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:09 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I kind of believe that. I was never under the assumption that everyone had it.

I thought there'd be at least one other out there that doesn't have it though if it's not a lie.
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Post Post #760 (isolation #63) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:10 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

(A significant portion of this game hasn't claimed whether they do or don't have it.)
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Post Post #764 (isolation #64) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:19 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 762, Servant Beast wrote:And I'm still against gathering that type of data
A sensible position that I could believe is reasonable.

After all, it gives away a TON of information if we have people claiming whether they do or don't have a rather innocuous addendum to their master upgrade when half the game already has already claimed it.
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Post Post #794 (isolation #65) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:04 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I read all that and I still don't know what your read on Avenger is.
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Post Post #795 (isolation #66) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:09 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

At one point you said you were "coming around to the idea" that Avenger was town (308) and that you were starting to like him a bit more recently (422) but then that suddenly went to flat-out not voting him today (715), being unable to read him (724) and that last post that doesn't tell me much about your position on him.

There's nothing between 422 and 715 that I can see about Avenger.
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Post Post #796 (isolation #67) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 5:10 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

That's why I mentioned your trajectory™ on Avenger is odd.

I guess #531 and #534 were enough for you to be totally unsure about your earlier town read on him?
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Post Post #798 (isolation #68) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 6:32 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

If you set your hair on fire in anger because he used the word "politically", I am frightened to imagine what you'd do if he said something actually controversial.
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Post Post #800 (isolation #69) » Sun Sep 06, 2020 7:30 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Did you miss 791 or are you choosing not to respond to it?
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Post Post #839 (isolation #70) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:02 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 832, Servant Avenger wrote:Give me your voteeeeee foreigner.

*Nags, pokes, tickles*
Elongating the e just makes me read that as 'vo teeeee' in my head. Please consider a bit more carefully which vowel you want to stress.
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Post Post #841 (isolation #71) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:07 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

And here I was saying I wasn't going to be helpful. Game plan ruined.
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Post Post #843 (isolation #72) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:17 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Oh, I know the answer to Berserker's riddle too coincidentally. It's because Alter Ego stressed the h there. But I don't think that necessarily means Alter Ego is scum, just wrong.
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Post Post #848 (isolation #73) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:51 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

No, I meant wrong in your use of "Ahhh" over "Aaah".

But also yes probably wrong if you think Rider is town.
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Post Post #856 (isolation #74) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:16 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

There's like 4 people explicitly saying they think Rider is scum or at least not a town read lol

The rest have either called Rider a town read or not commented on Rider's alignment

It just so happens that two of those people are among the loudest (Avenger, Assassin) and one of those people is the coolest and most awesomest (me).
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Post Post #858 (isolation #75) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:19 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

(That last line in #856 is just to help you understand why you may have the false impression that there's "been enough suspicion" of Rider when it's actually a relatively small group of people.)
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Post Post #861 (isolation #76) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:37 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

*shrug*

If you're looking for something in the game thread about how my read developed, I feel like you're going to be disappointed.

Much like the direction of, say, my Assassin read, you're probably just going to have to attempt to read between the lines for now until I feel like giving more explanation.
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Post Post #867 (isolation #77) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:02 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Any time you write something, Shielder, it just looks so disconnected from the game that I can't really figure out what you're trying to achieve if you're town.
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Post Post #873 (isolation #78) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:21 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 870, Servant Shielder wrote:archer has faded as topscum a bit, but mostly because archer has gone inactive. interesting that the pressure on archer disappeared at the same time archer did though. hmm
This whole line makes my head hurt.
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Post Post #882 (isolation #79) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 3:51 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 878, Servant Caster wrote:Why are we collectively okay with this
You should loosen up a bit. You can't even vote your scum reads in this phase so your issue with people (well, me specifically) being 'cagey' is a bit overblown.
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Post Post #887 (isolation #80) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 4:04 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 884, Servant Caster wrote:Are you going to suddenly start playing when it's day?
Hmm. You're probably not going to like the answer I give - I'm still considering whether or not I'll do what you're referring to as "starting to play".

I don't think I have a full solve yet and there are things I am expecting to either happen or not happen in the first day phase, so I was planning to stay more or less in observation mode for a little while to see whether things play out like I expect they will.

Needless to say though, I've already said I don't want to be selected today and my upgrade isn't even important to me, so me being less forthcoming with information shouldn't really matter to you in this phase.
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Post Post #897 (isolation #81) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:15 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I don't actually care who gets selected at this point, personally. I guess I probably should care if they're gonna give out upgrades to people I think are scum, but even then I'm not that worried.

I don't actually mind voting you, I just really care who it is at this point and it's probably going to be decided via plurality anyway.

(I think you're acting like whoever gets selected in this phase is gonna have more sway than other people? I guess that could be why you're talking about it like that. TBH, assuming town gets selected today, I doubt I'll be listening to much they say if they disagree with me so I don't see this as a matter of giving "control of the game" to anyone.)
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Post Post #900 (isolation #82) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:31 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I will throw you a bone and say I think Rider's read progression on more than just Avenger is odd (that one was just more jarring than some others I've been monitoring, like Rider's Assassin read). And that I agree with Lancer's point about signal to noise re:Rider.

Though speaking of Rider, I just realised I made a note that I wanted to know what Rider was alluding to in #225 with "it's something I'm keeping an eye on."

Probably should have asked about that a while back but eh, weekend happened.
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Post Post #902 (isolation #83) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:03 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I meant Saber's point. Getting my pointy weapon wires crossed.
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Post Post #908 (isolation #84) » Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:24 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

What's that second link meant to be? 208?
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Post Post #921 (isolation #85) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 12:04 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Rider, have you been using your notes PT for long?

Could you talk about the first note you took about me and give me a rough time frame of when you took that note?
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Post Post #923 (isolation #86) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 12:12 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I kind of just think Shielder is planning for an early death and this is an attempt at confusing interactions. That said, I don't plan to go through any of that if we do flip Shielder, so it's a pointless exercise if that's the goal.
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Post Post #981 (isolation #87) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 10:26 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Are Assassin and Alter Ego still your only town reads, Archer?
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #88) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:32 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I'll probably just end up voting Avenger today. Deadline falls close to midday for me, just getting stuff done this morning before I pay any real attention to recent happenings.
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Post Post #1101 (isolation #89) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 12:38 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I am curious as to who Rider's three "must-die" reads are.

I know that Rider was trying to bait this response when revealing that, but I'm a sucker for taking bait like that.
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Post Post #1119 (isolation #90) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 12:57 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Assume Shielder and Archer are scum - what do you think of the fact that there's zero resistance to them essentially being the first two people gone from this game?

(Just a general question to anyone who cares to think about it. I have already formed my own opinions about what this says for how scum is approaching the game at the moment.)
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Post Post #1122 (isolation #91) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 1:04 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I don't think you're understanding what I was asking if you think I was suggesting scum would defend them.

Also I think anyone who thinks Shielder/Archer are "fine" is probably not following the flow of the game.
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Post Post #1163 (isolation #92) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:27 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I wasn't suggesting any defenses are being mounted anywhere. It was a general question to get people thinking about what the situation is for scum if those two are scum (since they're rather likely to be gone today).

So "what would the other two be doing here, if that's pretty much a foregone conclusion?" is the question.

There are two obvious answers here that I can think of. a. they're apathetic and have basically given up apart from keeping up appearances, or b. they're going to turbo bus despite the risks associated with doing that.
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Post Post #1168 (isolation #93) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 3:38 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

People can feel deflated without replacing out or even wanting to replace out. It's more a matter of mailing it in rather than outright giving up.
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Post Post #1207 (isolation #94) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 4:54 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

How many people actually think Ruler is scum in a scenario where a gun isn't being held to your head?

Looking for people actively scum reading that slot rathet than just not town reading.
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Post Post #1209 (isolation #95) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 4:58 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

You're skeptical of virtually the entire player list, then?
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Post Post #1233 (isolation #96) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:03 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1231, Servant Berserker wrote:This is genuine frustration. The kind of genuine frustration that is context proven by their mass questioning of the rules and trying to grasp it in thread. The kind of questioning that makes you look weak and gives up positioning in an anon game and makes you an easy target due to a lack of confidence.

I guess my question is why does a scum player post this?
I'd give this line of thinking more credence if Shielder's post wasn't in direct response to a rather blunt question.
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Post Post #1236 (isolation #97) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:10 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1231, Servant Berserker wrote:The kind of genuine frustration that is context proven by their mass questioning of the rules and trying to grasp it in thread.
See, when Shielder v1 wrote what he wrote in the game thread about the rules, my first and only thought on it was: "why not use the notes PT to ask the mod that?"

Because, you know, if I were interested in the answer to that, I'd ask the one who *made the rules*

(I am aware not everyone thinks like this, which frustrates me to no end, but asking it publicly doesn't give me good feelings about it being a genuine thought process.)
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Post Post #1242 (isolation #98) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:17 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1240, Servant Berserker wrote:Your logic would make sense if this player thought, for some reason, this action would make them look more town and thus is scum gaining town cred.

But in what universe does playing "detatched and uncertain" do that here? Especially with Master phase being as it is?
Because scum wouldn't have "become an IC" if they got selected. The implication from Shielder's first post (that I think was more likely deliberate than not) was that it was town asking the question.
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Post Post #1244 (isolation #99) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:21 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

That is indeed what I'm saying I think Shielder v1 attempted to do.
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Post Post #1248 (isolation #100) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:28 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I don't think the replace-out had anything to do with the initial goal of that first post.

I do think Shielder was telling the truth about being overwhelmed.
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Post Post #1249 (isolation #101) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:30 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Let's put it this way. The question Shielder asked about was probably the LEAST confusing part of this setup. But that's the only question Shielder asked publicly.
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Post Post #1253 (isolation #102) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:36 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I'm not making a case, just pointing out what I think was a flaw in Berserker's reasoning for calling you town. I've already acknowledged that despite all the reasons it makes more sense as scum *attempting* to fake a town tell, town can also do some pretty stupid things that make no sense. It's not why I think Shielder is scum, it just doesn't make me feel better about Shielder.
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Post Post #1255 (isolation #103) » Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:39 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

The last thing I'm going to say on this subject before I retreat to my mind palace is:

Why was that the only question that Shielder v1 asked PUBLICLY if he found the setup confusing? Do you think it's just a coincidence that the only question he asked happened to be one that implied something about his alignment?
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Post Post #1317 (isolation #104) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:05 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1276, Servant Avenger wrote:Mooncancer,
It's a loaded question, but what are you lying about? Your entry just doesn't fit with the rest of your play this game.
Not sure exactly what you're misinterpreting but this is funnily enough probably the only game in a long, long time where I'm breaking my usual style and telling nothing but the truth lol. Though I suppose you have to determine whether I'm lying in this post : ]
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Post Post #1337 (isolation #105) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:57 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Can anyone other than Shielder who did NOT have the ability to upgrade other players as part of their master upgrade claim that in their next post?
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Post Post #1338 (isolation #106) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:05 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Actually, let me rephrase that.

@Lancer, @Beast, you're the only two who haven't claimed whether or not they had it.

Did either of you not have the ability to upgrade other players?
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Post Post #1339 (isolation #107) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:06 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Wait never mind Beast actually did, though he just called it a "similar ability", getting my notes mixed up.

Lancer then.
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Post Post #1343 (isolation #108) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:20 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Ask you about what, Shielder? If you want to talk about something, talk about it lol. I wasn't asking you anything.
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Post Post #1346 (isolation #109) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:28 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1344, Servant Caster wrote:Berserker is being given way too much credit for their entrance. A savvy scum player could very easily see from their fake claim PMs that ramming that angle as hard as possible would get them townread.
I've been thinking about that for the last hour or so and came to the exact opposite conclusion.

And I only just realised I've been thinking about the master-upgrade mechanic entirely incorrectly for most of the game lol. I've been operating internally on the assumption of chain upgrades being a thing (even though I distinctly recall Assassin / Rider bringing up that this wasn't the case, it never really clicked for me until I started thinking about Ruler v1's first post).
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Post Post #1349 (isolation #110) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:34 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

It's one data point among many.
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Post Post #1371 (isolation #111) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:02 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I missed it if people have talked about it, but are the reasons that people other than Shielder have given for why Caster is a scum read?
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Post Post #1372 (isolation #112) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:05 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

It's amusing that the only person with a town read on Archer is being scum-read by Archer.
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Post Post #1384 (isolation #113) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 6:56 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1374, Servant Alter Ego wrote:Are you interested in sharing thoughts about Ruler?
Not really.

I spent like an hour and a page of my PT mulling over his ISO today.

The overall conclusion I reached was there are a bunch of what I'd consider town indicators but if even I ignore those, I still see nothing he's done yet as more likely to come from scum than town. That's why I was interested in anyone actually scum-reading him as opposed to a 'gun to head' read.

I'm probably not going to talk about the specifics here unless he actually gets run up.
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Post Post #1387 (isolation #114) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:00 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

TBH, I haven't thought about Archer since I wrote him off as scum some time in the master phase. Though that's partially because he became a lot less active.
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Post Post #1391 (isolation #115) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:11 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1386, Servant Avenger wrote:Do you have specifics on archer? @Moon.
My thoughts on any given player can get... incredibly specific, by the way. Like I've probably somewhere between 200-300 words across a series of posts on .

If notes PTs get released, I'd suggest not reading mine. Messy would be an understatement. I'm doing people a favour by not letting most of it spill into the game thread.
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Post Post #1395 (isolation #116) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 7:56 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I sincerely doubt anything I share would help you read me if you're still having difficulty figuring me out.

(Plus I don't actually care about helping you read me.)
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Post Post #1398 (isolation #117) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:14 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

*shrug*

Whether or not you town read me or believe things I'm saying is very low on the list of things I care about.

And you're conflating two entirely separate things.
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Post Post #1401 (isolation #118) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:34 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1399, Servant Avenger wrote:I assume the two things I'm conflating are lying and misleading?
You're conflating the fact that I said I'm doing you a favour not spilling my every thought in thread with my stance on not sharing reasoning.

These are two entirely separate things.

But I also really, really don't care about your read on me, so where do you think this conversation is going to go? Are you going to try to stop the Archer wagon going through if I don't talk about it?
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Post Post #1410 (isolation #119) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:51 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Wait, you only want one reason? Lemme see...

I legitimately thought his use of "hmm" in was the scummiest "hmm" I've seen in a long time.

Good enough?
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Post Post #1412 (isolation #120) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:53 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

As sad as it may seem, I am not joking about that either.

If you just want a boring macro reason, I'm just going to echo Saber's point about signal:noise ratio.
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Post Post #1417 (isolation #121) » Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:02 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Oh, actually I should have gone with: I thought you made a good point in but you seemed to fail to reach the obvious conclusion about how genuine Archer was being at the time.
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Post Post #1422 (isolation #122) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:31 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1380, Servant Assassin wrote:Do these read like the words of someone whose scum read was potentially about to win the master vote? (Caster made it to M-2, if you'll recall). No, they are loose, relaxed, unconcerned. There is not a hint of Berserkerishness to them. The most words they can muster against Caster is that they do not "inspire confidence". I do not know how this progresses to a GTH scum read. A town player who is suspect of one of the leading master wagons would be much, much more vocal. So that's one more point in the pile of them against Archer.
This reminded me. I actually did write something about Archer recently. It was that he was, at least according to previous reads he'd given, not town reading either Avenger or Caster but made no concerted effort to push Assassin over either of those two (while I partially attributed this to just a much lower activity level, I do think it stood out qs odd).

And fhatr further reminds me that he had exactly two scum reads and two town reads not thar long before the end of the master phase. Ending uo with precisely 4 scum gun to heas scum
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Post Post #1424 (isolation #123) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:33 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Well that was a partial thought that ended up being fat fingered and accidentally submitted but uh... whatever. Gist of it is clear and I'm tired so that'll do.
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Post Post #1426 (isolation #124) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:38 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I think it's interesting you ended up with exactly four given you were pretty unsure about a lot of the game was the point I was attempting to make. See for instance most people ending up with 3, 5 or 6.

Having exactly 4 suggests a greater level of comfort with how you're reading the game than previous posts from you suggested you actually had.

More of a random thought I had than a reason for calling you scum though.
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Post Post #1428 (isolation #125) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:40 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

We're nowhere near deadline so take your time reading.
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Post Post #1468 (isolation #126) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:50 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Caster, you are supposed to keep identity guesses inside your notes PT. For the record, I am not the worst.
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Post Post #1479 (isolation #127) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:59 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

This game has at least a few people from Cabd's Cohort though I don't believe he sent out personal invites
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Post Post #1510 (isolation #128) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:38 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1431, Servant Assassin wrote:I would like to ask you if you've managed to settle on a guess for a team yet?
I don't have a full solve.

I do have town reads to varying degrees on Alter Ego, Foreigner, Avenger, Berserker, Caster, Ruler and to a lesser extent Saber. (None of these are GTH, to use a cool kid initialism.)

You can probably work backwards from there to figure out where my head is at.

I want to firm up my Saber read. I want to read Lancer properly. I've been lazier on these two slots than others.

(I also kind of want to figure out which of my town reads I'd be wrong about if I am wrong about one or more of them, but this isn't a major concern for me until I start being wrong.)

(And I guess now that Archer has been flipped, I get to think about associations too.)
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Post Post #1530 (isolation #129) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:51 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I think Berserker is referring to Archer's vote when she says "led by scum" (even though Archer wasn't leading it).

(And Archer's vote there doesn't make me think "wow, definitely not distancing" either.)
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Post Post #1533 (isolation #130) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:52 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Oh wait, I keep forgetting Berserker thinks Caster is scum. Never mind what I just wrote.
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Post Post #1560 (isolation #131) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:09 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1523, Servant Rider wrote:How firm are you on Ruler?
I feel slightly stronger about it now than I did before the Archer flip.

And not due to associations, but due to Archer's role.

Has anyone actually read the role card yet?

Pay special attention to his "with a master" upgrade (or rather, what's not in it).

I have my own conclusions about what this means about the game (and with regards to Ruler, what it means about his first post).
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Post Post #1584 (isolation #132) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:23 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1569, Servant Rider wrote:Besides, Ruler came in far too late to give them any town credit for claiming it was in their role PM.
I'm not giving Ruler credit for claiming it.

It's more his thought process with regards to thinking about it pre-game.

To be more specific, I believe the following line:
In post 292, Servant Ruler wrote:I didn't assume I was the most powerful role in the game, but I absolutely did not expect it to be shared.
Though I am (very slowly) mulling over the angle that he wrote this as scum and trying to figure out how likely I think that is.

(Busy atm so probably not going to think too in-depth about it until later.)

(And don't tell me that "scum could have written that" - I am fully aware that virtually anything in a mafia game could be written by scum or town, thanks.)
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Post Post #1594 (isolation #133) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:31 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

(Ultimately, Ruler's first post is one among many. It's not the be-all-end-all reason I think he's town by any means, I just think Archer's flip strengthened my thoughts on Ruler's first post slightly.)

(I do think the fact that Archer did not have the upgrade that the majority of people -
apart from Shielder
- have claimed means I should really think about whether scum came into this game clueless as to its existence and I do want to go back over how the game started out as a result, though really I already thought the people claiming it on the first page were likely town so it doesn't change much about how I think about that. I'd be more looking at who didn't seem aware of it to begin with. Lancer *may* stick out in that regard.)

(Also, for what it's worth, I think at least one scum may have had the upgrade as a red herring, but this doesn't matter much atm since I don't think anyone who initially claimed it was scum and anyone who claimed it after it became common knowledge could have just been like Archer.)

My thoughts are disjointed atm due to limited time, just throwing a couple things out here for people to think about while I'm not around. Back to work.
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Post Post #1610 (isolation #134) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:54 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Cabd could have very well made it so only one town player did not have that ability.

He's a huge fucking troll and I could so very easily see that being the case.

But I do think Shielder probably is scum who genuinely doesn't have it and truthfully claimed that.

FTR, every single still living player apart from Shielder has claimed to have it (or "a similar ability").

I somewhat agree with whatshisface that you shouldn't play the game around role PMs, but it's still a factor I'm thinking about. It's a piece of the puzzle.
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Post Post #1618 (isolation #135) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:26 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I don't think Shielder is lying about being scum read a lot as town, or lying about anything regarding his playstyle really.

I do think Shielder is using that as a crutch though (because it's true
when he is town
, it's easier to spew true things about it).
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Post Post #1622 (isolation #136) » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:57 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

The whole "negative" thing he said means he either didn't have one or ignored the one he was given to claim that.

I haven't followed recent pages outside of skimming for mentions of either my name. Why do people think this is at all important?
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Post Post #1627 (isolation #137) » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:25 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Lancer is probably who I'd want if for whatever reason people decided Shielder wasn't a good choice.
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Post Post #1628 (isolation #138) » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:37 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 346, Servant Lancer wrote:I might actually have to bite the bullet and take notes this game. I underestimated how much I relied on avatars/names/personality quirks in telling players apart and playing intuitively like I like to.
Did this ever end up happening, Lancer?
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Post Post #1629 (isolation #139) » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:26 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 180, Servant Lancer wrote:Two townreads and two scumreads.
Probably not that easy.
What were these reads btw?
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Post Post #1630 (isolation #140) » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:37 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Actually, hmm.

Lancer makes some sense as scum with Archer, but probably isn't scum with Shielder so...

:thinking:
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Post Post #1684 (isolation #141) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:38 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Assuming scum cared at all about who was selected beyond how it made them look (e.g. whether it was consistent with things they'd previously said) seems like not a great thing to assume.
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Post Post #1685 (isolation #142) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:40 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I would be mildly surprised if Caster is scum.

Way too many town indicators in that ISO.
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Post Post #1705 (isolation #143) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:55 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Could people town reading Beast tell me why they think he's town?

Also please include your thoughts on his Caster vote when you do so.

TIA
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Post Post #1706 (isolation #144) » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:00 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Please also mention his gun to head town read on Caster and his reasoning for voting Caster over like... anyone he actually thinks is likely scum when doing so.
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Post Post #1719 (isolation #145) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:22 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

So your reasoning for voting Caster is you may be wrong in thinking Caster is town and you aren't ever right D1 (if we ignore Archer)? Am I understanding that correctly?

And if you don't trust your own reads, then why trust Berserker's over, I dunno, literally anyone else's? Is she your strongest town read?
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Post Post #1720 (isolation #146) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:25 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

See, if
I
were a town player here (hypothetically), I'd think being correct about a scum read would mean I was on the right track, not that I should abandon all my reads and sheep someone because when am I ever right?
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Post Post #1721 (isolation #147) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:28 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

(Though arguably most of the player list was right if the gun to head reads are anything to go by, but I don't really see where the sudden lack of confidence in your reads would come from regardless.)
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Post Post #1782 (isolation #148) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:18 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Does anyone on the Caster wagon think that it's going to go anywhere if you don't try to persuade a fairly large contingent of the game that Caster is likely to be scum?
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Post Post #1784 (isolation #149) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:33 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1521, Servant Shielder wrote:i also want to clarify my claim that would be unable to chain master to anyone else. i can chain master to one, but only one person.
I'm a little behind at the moment, but has anyone else claimed to have this variation?

I originally thought Cabd might have been troll enough to include one player who doesn't have what I think is the shared ability (D1 + D2, one player a day) but I do not believe Cabd gave a single town player the ability to upgrade only one player and everyone else two (unless, like, Shielder's NP is super OP but IIRC Shielder claimed that wasn't the case sooooo yeah). That sort of inconsistency doesn't really make sense from a modding perspective I think, though it's more than possible this is like a scum-exit-the-game-but-upgrade-a-buddy ability if it's real.

(I have some other thoughts about whether Shielder's play around this mechanic even makes sense but I'm not really interested in talking about it until I figure out whether it's really the only variation.)
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Post Post #1785 (isolation #150) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:35 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

It occurs to me that not many people have really talked about the mechanic and whether there are any variations.

FWIW, mine would have worked by giving out one D1 and one D2, I've been assuming this is how everyone's worked until I read Shielder's claim and thought about what it means.
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Post Post #1787 (isolation #151) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:53 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

To be clear, you agree with Rider that Shielder could be town?

Do you believe what Shielder wrote about trying to bait scum into claiming they didn't have the shared mechanic when Shielder doesn't have the shared mechanic?

I'm missing a fair few pages of discussion so if this has already been talked about, whatever.
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Post Post #1790 (isolation #152) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:05 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I dunno, the role stuff aside, I could see scum-Shielder thinking "if I were town in this situation..." and doing that. And then trying to explain it because it was a real "if I were town..." thought process.

Even though it makes no sense. And especially doesn't make sense if Shielder doesn't even have any thoughts on what the wagon actually looked like and what it means.

I've seen town do incredibly dumb things like that though (like, stuff that makes literally zero sense but somehow they don't see the internal inconsistency) so I'm not saying there's anything inherently scummy about it, just that it doesn't make me feel "yeah, town" (and I dislike reading things I consider incredibly bad play).

The role stuff is more clear cut to me because I'm not even looking at the motivations behind it, even though it legitimately makes zero sense to me that a TOWN player would think "I'm going to try to bait scum into claiming a NON-STANDARD thing when I myself have a NON-STANDARD thing" - like, if I had a NON-STANDARD aspect to my role that almost everyone but me had claimed, I wouldn't think "oh, if anyone else claims something NON-STANDARD, they're scum! I'll try to bait that!"
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Post Post #1791 (isolation #153) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:06 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

(When I say the role stuff is more clear-cut, I mean I don't even really need to think about the motivations if it's just a fake-claim to begin with.)

(Unless Shielder is gonna come in again and be like "lol I was just baiting a second time, guys!!!")
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Post Post #1792 (isolation #154) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:09 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I should also mention that I'm pretty biased towards the idea of Shielder being scum purely via POE at this point, so feel free to take my posts with a grain of salt with regards to Shielder, though I really do not believe that claim.

My read on Beast fluctuates each time I read her posts.
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Post Post #1793 (isolation #155) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:13 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I also don't agree with anyone who's saying "don't go after Shielder today because there are bigger fish to fry" (especially when one of those bigger fish is apparently Caster? And I don't really see Caster as scum).

Other than the fact this is a role madness and those bigger fish have a higher likelihood of being fried at night with another scum down today anyway, it's just lazy to put off getting rid of someone because it's too easy or whatever.

I'm probably going to do some reading tonight and ultimately decide on whether or not I feel like getting rid of Shielder today, but if I end up thinking Shielder is the most likely to be scum, then so be it. I don't care if it's "low hanging fruit" or whatever you want to call it.
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Post Post #1794 (isolation #156) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:15 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

(Also I think the Shielder wagon is probably all town at the moment, so this low hanging fruit doesn't seem to be all that low hanging for scum.)
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Post Post #1797 (isolation #157) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:31 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Wait, are you saying you can do that regardless of the master phase or that you only got it with the master upgrade from the master phase?
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Post Post #1799 (isolation #158) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:53 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

May you rest in peace.
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Post Post #1801 (isolation #159) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:56 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Still, I would like for people to claim (preferably in their next post) whether they have what appears to be the or whether they have a variation of that (perhaps similar to Shielder's).
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Post Post #1805 (isolation #160) » Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:07 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I just feel bad for the people Rider doesn't wish were town tbh. What does Rider have against them!?!?
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Post Post #1833 (isolation #161) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:10 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Interesting.

I actually decided before I went to sleep last night that Shielder might be town but that everything related to that claim had to be a lie.

Also, I started thinking that too many people had started calling that slot town and at least a portion of them (such as Lancer and maybe Rider) were scum trying to set themselves up in an "I told you so!" position.

My reads are in flux at the moment.
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Post Post #1834 (isolation #162) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:14 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

When I say that claim, I mean the stuff Shielder v2 claimed.
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Post Post #1837 (isolation #163) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:18 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

It was the first phase of this game. It's not important now, you don't have it and can't use it.
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Post Post #1838 (isolation #164) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:26 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Oh, Beast was another who started calling that slot town but I currently also think Beast is town so not as weirded out by that.
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Post Post #1843 (isolation #165) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:40 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I started working on the assumption that Shielder v2 was the type of player who, if town, liked doing (what I consider) dumb gambity stuff with lying about their role. I sincerely doubt anything was misread.
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Post Post #1844 (isolation #166) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:41 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

My current assumption is that Shielder v2 may have thought kf revealing that during the night phase.
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Post Post #1845 (isolation #167) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:43 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Actually maybe not since 4 charges takes time. I dunno what was going on with that but I assume it was going to be revealed eventually if Shielder's town.
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Post Post #1852 (isolation #168) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:57 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1796, Servant Shielder wrote:moon cancer, once youre caught up could you say who you think the scum are if its not anyone on my wagon?
I think this post prompted me to try to do a full reset on Shielder because I couldn't really understand the scum angle there. And uh...
In post 1250, Servant Shielder wrote:so you think scum was overwhelmed and decided to ask in public rather than PT or PM to the mod? if you're serious about pursuing this argument, please walk us through it in detail. i'm gonna go make some popcorn while i wait.

pedit: i think this is probably a waste of time, and probably also a waste of limited post space. but feel free to make your case if you really want.
I have a soft spot for people who show incredulity at my read on them. (Actually, I reversed my read on Assassin for a similar reason.)

Ultimately decided if that slot is town, she had to have been lying about her role, but didn't wanna say anything until I saw what Shielder v3 would claim.
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Post Post #1855 (isolation #169) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:04 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I don't think Shielder v2 was a newbie to mafia, just a newbie to this site. Shielder v2 seemed relatively experienced. (I just don't understand what the goal of lying about the role stuff was if she was town because even if I assume gambit, I'm struggling to see what she was trying to achieve.)
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Post Post #1858 (isolation #170) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:12 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Surely you meant unlimited and not infinity...
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Post Post #1866 (isolation #171) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:20 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Not really. Looks like a standard "I feel dumb for defending a scum fake claim" vote to me.

It could theoretically be scum who found an excuse to vote Shielder, I guess, but the vote itself doesn't mean much to me.
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Post Post #1870 (isolation #172) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:51 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Both could probably make that post. Though I suppose it entirely depends on what scum-Beast thought the outcome of that would be (i.e whether scum-Beast thought town-Shielder v2 was lying and Shielder v3 would reveal that and give scum-Beast the necessary excuse to vote town-Shielder? A bit far-fetched)
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Post Post #1872 (isolation #173) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:16 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I think Beast was already partial to the idea that Shielder might be scum fake-claiming and so asked about that, yes.
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Post Post #1873 (isolation #174) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:18 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I mean, what you see as 'outcome was already foreordained' I see as being partial to that idea.

But again, scum-Beast would have to assume town-Shielder v2 was lying for there to be some foreordained outcome against Shielder? Or do you think Beast was going to vote Shielder regardless of what Shielder said?
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Post Post #1875 (isolation #175) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:37 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I'm not really sure where you're going with that so I'm just going to nod sagely.
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Post Post #1878 (isolation #176) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:27 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I don't really want to go through everything in Caster's ISO that I think is a town indicator, but I will briefly just say that of the posts you referenced...
In post 280, Servant Caster wrote:Honestly, I just want to king Foreigner whether he likes it or not and call it a day.
In post 603, Servant Caster wrote:because he's not avenger
The above two are examples of what I consider a town indicator.

And so is #1105 in the context of what it is responding to.
And so is the first paragraph of #1281.
And the entirety of #1712. And #1826.

(I should mention that what I consider a town indicator comes down to a lot of factors, including context, phrasing and generally just parsing the the posts for intent, so if you disagree or you just don't see it, I don't particularly feel like explaining it in any depth.)
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Post Post #1880 (isolation #177) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:31 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I don't really agree with the macro assessment either (lack of scum hunting / looking at the game).

I'm neutral on the Archer interactions. There's nothing I'd consider a strong negative or positive interaction, at least that I can remember.
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Post Post #1882 (isolation #178) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:33 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1098, Servant Foreigner wrote:I think it's about having a plan for the future after you win the vote.

And I think to some degree Caster both doesn't have one of those and also isn't showing they aren't thinking about the future.
To put #1105 into context, as a response to this, I consider it a town indicator. But again, I'm not interested in explaining it if you don't see why.
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Post Post #1928 (isolation #179) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:54 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Shielder didn't claim it as soon as she replaced in, she replaced in, apparently read 5 pages before saying she'll come back later then 14 hours later claimed not to have that ability.

I see reasons she could have done that as scum. I don't know enough about her as a player to know whether she really is the type who'd do a gambit like that as town, but I've seen other players do that sort of thing as town in similar situations for seemingly no valid reason other than it's what popped into their mind as a good idea...

I'm hesitant to say anything like "it's more something scum would do" when it really seems more like a play style thing than an alignment thing.
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Post Post #1937 (isolation #180) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:12 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1888, Servant Avenger wrote:Scum lie disproportionately more often than town.
As a general statement, obviously.

But when it comes to role-related lies, I think it's more a playstyle thing than an alignment thing. There are certain players I know for a fact will NEVER lie about their role regardless of their alignment. They'll omit and exaggerate, sure, but never lie or at the very least keep lies to a minimum if it's absolutely necessary to lie. (90% of the time, this is me too.) On the other hand, I can name a fair few players that will lie about their role almost every game as town. And the only reason they don't lie about it
every
game is that sometimes what would normally be a ridiculous lie just happens to be the truth by random chance.

I think Shielder v2 was probably somewhere in the middle of the two extremes.

And I'm currently thinking the slot is town.

And I don't care about the act of lying in and of itself (especially since with Shielder v2 gone, all I can currently do is make assumptions about why it happened instead of being able to ask).
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Post Post #1938 (isolation #181) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:16 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I doubt Berserker is scum. I just wouldn't be at all surprised if Berserker has exactly zero correct scum reads.
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Post Post #1942 (isolation #182) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:26 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1894, Servant Avenger wrote:I think his viewpoint could be a simple way of setting himself back to gain town cred early. Give up a shot at the crown but get a seat up at the table. Later, he wasn't uninterested in being elected if he could rack up the votes, if I recall.
On the other hand, there's consistency of view point where it's harder to see him playing from that angle.
I don't really know what this is in response to specifically, but I suppose I should mention that I'm not seeing any sort of narrative like that in Shielder's posts but I'm also not really actively looking for it either.

My read comes from an amalgamation of individual (what I'm calling) town indicators. Posts that I think are tonally town, paragraphs that I think are unlikely to come from someone whose goal is deception, etc.

I'm mostly interested in the micro stuff over the macro stuff.

(This is also why I don't really care for any of the "Berserker is pushing incorrect reads and this helps scum" ideas floating around currently.)
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Post Post #1944 (isolation #183) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:30 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I meant Caster, I dunno why Shielder's name was there.
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Post Post #1945 (isolation #184) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:32 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

(I am at work and just write stuff quickly on the fly. I'm not really proof-reading stuff so meh. That was all about Caster.)
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Post Post #1946 (isolation #185) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:49 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

In post 1939, Servant Berserker wrote:Archer was already on my scum list literally from the Master phase.
Archer was pretty much a universal scum read if we go by the gun to head lists. I'm not really counting that as a plus for anyone.

And I also wasn't referring to your reads on already flipped players.
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Post Post #1947 (isolation #186) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:53 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

(I'm pretty much going to ignore anyone who says "I was right about Archer" as a defense of their reads, btw.)
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Post Post #1949 (isolation #187) » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:05 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

*shrug*

TBH I'm more interested in being correct than I am in stopping any wagon that develops on anyone (including myself).

I've been around the block enough times to know I could entirely halt the Caster wagon if I wanted to be persuasive, but it doesn't currently interest me. I'm just using this game as a whetstone for my accuracy more than anything, as selfish as that may sound.

So if the Caster wagon does go through and I am correct, I'm not going to be depressed or anything. And if I happen to be incorrect, the only thing I'm going to be concerned about is where I went wrong.

I don't think Caster is scum and I've yet to see an argument for why they're scum that seems at all convincing to me.
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Post Post #1959 (isolation #188) » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:18 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Assassin, I don't think what other people might refer to as tone is the same as what I'm referring to. Or if it is, I think I'm OKish at distinguishing the difference between faked and genuine in this regard even in an anonymous game. Or at least I used to be. I lack confidence at the moment due to shaking off rust, but I would still be quite surprised if my read on Caster is incorrect.

And I also don't currently believe Shielder is scum but I want to sit down and think about this one properly when I have some time.

As far as who actually _is_ scum, still thinking about this. I might have been wrong about my initial assessment of Ruler, I still need to go over Lancer and Saber. I'm way further behind in this game than I wanted to be.
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Post Post #1989 (isolation #189) » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:51 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

Thinking flavour is going to match 100% seems ridiculous. Do you think there are zero investigative abilities in this game or something?
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Post Post #1991 (isolation #190) » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:20 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

I think I immediately lose any semblance of respect for someone when they use the term "role fishing" unironically.
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Post Post #2031 (isolation #191) » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:40 am

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

1989 wasn't even directed at you lol. It was clearly directed at the person who was thinking that, you know, the one who brought it up.
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Post Post #2088 (isolation #192) » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:18 pm

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In post 2068, Servant Assassin wrote:I am against a Lancer elimination and thought their posting in the last few pages made good points. They've shown flashes. The way their read on me during the first phase reversed felt organic.
Who does Lancer think is scum?
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Post Post #2089 (isolation #193) » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:19 pm

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I uh... started thinking that Lancer seems pretty OK with the way today is going since he's fine not pushing any alternative wagons but he's also not really committing to either of the competing wagons so he kinda just feels like he's keeping up appearances more than trying to find scum?

You know, kind of like that thing you're saying Caster is bad for doing?
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Post Post #2090 (isolation #194) » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:21 pm

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(To be clear, IF Shielder and Caster are both town, this looks bad, and I'm considering that possibility at the moment and looking at what scum is trying to do around the wagons.)
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Post Post #2091 (isolation #195) » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:25 pm

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I actually honestly don't know what Lancer's read on Caster currently is and I guess he still thinks Shielder is town?
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Post Post #2104 (isolation #196) » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:55 pm

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In post 2094, Servant Assassin wrote:Their last few posts have been analyzing Caster's behavior in a way that would indicate suspicion.
I didn't see that conclusion, but supposing you're right, I guess there wasn't enough suspicion for him to want to vote Caster.
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Post Post #2106 (isolation #197) » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:00 pm

Post by Servant Moon Cancer »

That was me trying to say "I'm wondering why, if you're right, he didn't VOTE Caster if he thinks Caster is scum", you know, what with the wagon on Caster and there being enough support.
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Post Post #2113 (isolation #198) » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:12 pm

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I don't believe Shielder is scum.

And I don't believe Caster is scum.

I'm not really sure why people seem to feel so strongly that Rider is town. Rider's reads feel pretty hollow.
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Post Post #2116 (isolation #199) » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:16 pm

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Pretty sure that already happened, like, at the start of the day...

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