Guns & Roses V [Game Over]


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Post Post #9 (isolation #0) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:49 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 6, Mr Sandman wrote:1. What is your mafia experience like?
2. Do you prefer playing as mafia or as town?
3. How would you rate your scumhunting ability?
1. big
2. neither
3. godlike on D1
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Post Post #10 (isolation #1) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:50 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 8, Rosé wrote:I recollect myself and focus. I must protect my Gún, it was in the very rites I swore by when I took the name Rosé.
what if gun is not good?
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Post Post #27 (isolation #2) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 2:32 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 12, Mr Sandman wrote:Hiraki, so you would normally — or at least more often than not — end Day 1 voting for mafia?
yep
In post 23, Bell wrote:that caution preaching ain't enough.
?
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Post Post #31 (isolation #3) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:15 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 28, Bell wrote:There's literally only one post you've made that could be interpreted as caution preaching Hiraki. /:
?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
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Post Post #32 (isolation #4) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:16 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 10, Hiraki wrote:
In post 8, Rosé wrote:I recollect myself and focus. I must protect my Gún, it was in the very rites I swore by when I took the name Rosé.
what if gun is not good?
is this caution preaching???
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Post Post #34 (isolation #5) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:21 pm

Post by Hiraki »

talking about character fluff?
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Post Post #36 (isolation #6) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:25 pm

Post by Hiraki »

Vote: Bell
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Post Post #39 (isolation #7) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:31 pm

Post by Hiraki »

your reads are not only not real but also inconsistent - not sure which is worse
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Post Post #41 (isolation #8) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:38 pm

Post by Hiraki »

that's your response?
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Post Post #43 (isolation #9) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:40 pm

Post by Hiraki »

what a fucking comedian
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Post Post #46 (isolation #10) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 5:43 pm

Post by Hiraki »

yet you're willing to clog up the thread with a veiled ad hom, cool cool
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Post Post #56 (isolation #11) » Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:55 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 51, Bell wrote:It sounds like you're always or normally a hydra with Rose?
Yes, but no.
Hiraki has thick skin IMO. They can handle it. Probably.
If hiraki is tvting me there's not much to gain by asking them about why they think I was being inconsistent or lying or both. It's just not true and there's not much I can do with it.
If it's SVT, lol, I can't do anything with that either because nothing I could say would change their mind unless they decided to make a show of changing their mind.
1) the fact that I have thick skin doesn't give you justification to try and insult me
2) this isn't how town thinks
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Post Post #93 (isolation #12) » Mon Dec 07, 2020 2:43 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 57, Bell wrote:1. Said you were bad at this, i.e., that you were bad at reading town for town, because I told you the truth and you voted me for it. Which means you either didn't interpret me correctly or are scum.
no - you said
In post 40, Bell wrote:Wow,
you uh.
You suck at this.
so don't dodge the point here - you were/are being a prick
In post 62, Tanner wrote:as for refusal to engage, that also struck me as an ~odd~ thing town does more often than scum - stepping down before it turns into a shitfight *and* risking the obvious accusation of running away and refusing to engage.
i don't see the point of playing probabilities here
In post 66, Iconeum wrote:tho i suppose you could argue that it isn't beneficial for scum to be sticking to reads at all like that, thus its more likely to come from town
but now after tanner's post, you have two abnormalities from town posting that are forced actions (i.e. there's no way that they can be done without intention) and that are anti-town. is the idea here that bell is so anti-town that he's town? i won't buy it and in a game where multiple people are going to shoot tonight, i don't want to play that
game

i agree with 92 - i also just answered RQS for fun but i disagree with ico that it's scummy if sandman doesn't do anything with it. not really worth talking about more than that though.
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Post Post #101 (isolation #13) » Mon Dec 07, 2020 9:15 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 95, Tanner wrote:er, have i been playing the game wrong all this time? isn't the whole point seeing whose behaviour is more or less likely to come from certain alignment? (as i type this out, i feel like it sounds sarcastic, but i didn't intent it to be and don't know how to word it otherwise.)
no i did tangle with the phrasing a little bit

i guess the better wording is that you're playing probabilities too hard? to me it seems like you're townreading him for being too scummy to be scum which to me seems like an intentional act from Bell. I think we're agreeing there - although I don't have concrete evidence of that - but you're not agreeing on the final assessment. I'm moreso asking you to think why you should think someone who is actively anti-town is town. Are they doing it because it's their playstyle? Are they doing it because they have a grudge? I don't see a likelihood in either of those things but I could be wrong. What I definitely don't see is a productive way to play the game.
In post 95, Tanner wrote:it's not just being too anti-town that he's town, it's more... things that i feel scum are less likely to do. i feel like you won't like this answer.
no, not really but i'm willing to agree to disagree
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Post Post #105 (isolation #14) » Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:20 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 103, Tanner wrote:
In post 101, Hiraki wrote:i guess the better wording is that you're playing probabilities too hard? to me it seems like you're townreading him for being too scummy to be scum which to me seems like an intentional act from Bell. I think we're agreeing there - although I don't have concrete evidence of that - but you're not agreeing on the final assessment. I'm moreso asking you to think why you should think someone who is actively anti-town is town. Are they doing it because it's their playstyle? Are they doing it because they have a grudge? I don't see a likelihood in either of those things but I could be wrong. What I definitely don't see is a productive way to play the game.
we're not agreeing on it being *intentional*. if you could show me how those posts seem intentionally crafted to seem too scummy to be scum, i'd see your point and maybe even agree with it. but i'm reading them as posts made in the moment as the game was happening. i guess my answer would be playstyle, though maybe i'm projecting the way i play the game.
how many reads do you have this game?
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Post Post #168 (isolation #15) » Tue Dec 08, 2020 7:07 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 136, Tanner wrote:i tried to recall reads from memory, and realized the answer is "less than i usually do by this point". maybe "less than i should". i'll blame it on not yet receiving an answer to the things that currently interest me.
your memory is probably correct, your bias is not
In post 139, Albert B. Rampage wrote:She also voted Dunstral after me. The reads list is nonsensical.
agreed - i do not think it comes from scum though.
In post 140, DrippingGoofball wrote:On page 5.... it could be scum seizing the narrative early.
do you really believe this or are you just trying to cover all bases?
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Post Post #194 (isolation #16) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 9:52 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 179, Albert B. Rampage wrote:At this point the top 3 players I am ready to vote out are Dunstral, Uncrowned and Rose.
Can you tell me where I should be looking for Dunn? Is it just because he has a wagon? I don't really see a "kill this with fire" that everyone else is seeing.
In post 187, Mr Sandman wrote:This seems somewhat counterintuitive. If Bell is scum, then he knows he needs to provide reads. He might choose to hold off to allow those reads to seem more fully fleshed out, but if he’s aware that providing them early is likely to be dismissed as something mafia wouldn’t do, then that’s a strong incentive for him to provide them early. I think the fact they were on page 1 is probably not very indicative of his alignment.
Yeah, this is about the best I can say about the current Bell handwaving here. "Too scummy to be scum" isn't a thing if the person is capable of not being scummy. Bell has done that in other games.
In post 187, Mr Sandman wrote:I think someone being rude is probably a feature of who that person is rather than their alignment. I would say maybe it is very slightly indicative of being town, but without knowing a person that’s no better than random. I think that’s quite likely from mafia, yes. Again, simply coasting out a game is not a way to win, you’re likely to just be eliminated for failing to do anything. It’s, at its best, a weak strategy. However, you also need to survive if you’re mafia. So if you piss off the wrong person, you have a strong reason to try to defuse things rather than using the conflict to try to get a better read on them or to use the situation of the conflict to try to get reads on the rest of the players e.g. how they position around the two of you.
I don't fully agree with this but it is stepping into Mafia Discussion rather than being relevant.

At this point, I'm pretty good with a Bell/Rose for D1. I haven't touched on it but I read the entirety of 146 and felt really annoyed. It's so much RP and fluff that it can be summed down to:

"(Bell's) temper may be short and his passion high, but his thoughts and intentions seemed pure at heart." which doesn't talk about the content but just the vigor behind it. If I could scumread people based on their personalities, then old-Hiraki would be lynched far more regardless of alignment.
In post 146, Rosé wrote:We debated for a while on whether Rampage was his real name or if he just thought it sounded cool, and eventually agreed that the B probably stood for Barricaded, as that's how he felt in the way he carefully maneuvered around the town, talking about nothing more than his opinions on guns and roses.
Then we also got that which is completely the same thing that Bell had been doing which is probably why my initial assumption was never really considered.

Akarin isn't the worst substitute there but I don't have a great feeling there.

Mod: What's up with Paragon?
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Post Post #195 (isolation #17) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 9:53 am

Post by Hiraki »

Didn't even get a post-edit for this. Sad!
In post 193, Albert B. Rampage wrote:I enjoy the roleplay personally. I think Rose having fun is great, so I'll save her for last. Uncrowned or Dunstral will be my primary pushes.
Yeah but are you reading it? Gun is actually playing the game - Rose is floating.
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Post Post #207 (isolation #18) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:17 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 202, Akarin wrote:
In post 194, Hiraki wrote:Yeah, this is about the best I can say about the current Bell handwaving here. "Too scummy to be scum" isn't a thing if the person is capable of not being scummy. Bell has done that in other games.
So you think Bell is
that
scummy still?
What do you mean still? It's still Day 1 and we're on Page 9. Am I supposed to forgive and forget because he hasn't posted in awhile?
In post 203, Akarin wrote:
In post 195, Hiraki wrote:Yeah but are you reading it? Gun is actually playing the game - Rose is floating.
post 146: Bell is picking fights and Rose thinks he's pure of heart. ABR feels barricaded and careful. Uncrowned has a good reads list and seems towny.

post 151 Sandman is "acknowledging the Bell is starting conflicts by being inflammatory, but also saying he's suspicious for trying
not
to engage in conflicts." Vote: Sandman

Why doesn't this count as playing the game?
1) Calling out someone for doing something and labeling at townie should have a reason behind it. An action in itself is not townie but the motivation behind it. If there's no explanation of the motivation, there's no real reason to believe that person is town.

2) You said it right there. "ABR feels barricaded and careful." Literal IIoA in the flesh.

3) I've already called out Uncrowned's readslist to be bad.

4) That's not what Sandman said and it doesn't lead to scum. Even Rose acknowledged that in the same post -
In post 151, Rosé wrote:
"Y'know, that's shoddy reporting at best
, and malicious at worst. Let's pay em a visit and see what he thinks, yeah?"
It's quite honestly one of the weakest votes I've seen in years. And it's supposed to be an example of Rose doing anything other than floating by???

Good luck Bell!
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Post Post #210 (isolation #19) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:26 pm

Post by Hiraki »

So you're saying that you
think
Rose has scumlean but there's nothing in the post that says that? Sort of like if Gun was just saying that ABR was doing X and Y but Gun also never got to a conclusion?

Besides, who told you to think for Rose?
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Post Post #211 (isolation #20) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:27 pm

Post by Hiraki »

Actually nail in the coffin - wouldn't it have been easier to summarize that ABR was a scumlean for Rose rather than saying the direct quote? But you couldn't do that because Rose never said that so now you're just putting words in Rose's mouth? Weird to me.
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Post Post #214 (isolation #21) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:29 pm

Post by Hiraki »

You didn't want to ask?
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Post Post #215 (isolation #22) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:30 pm

Post by Hiraki »

The whole point of our conversation is that Rose hasn't said anything and all you've done is shown that you've been able to interpret what Rose is saying. That's good and all but I'm not here to put words in anyone's mouth.
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Post Post #220 (isolation #23) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 5:20 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 217, Akarin wrote:VOTE: Hiraki
Good luck.
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Post Post #224 (isolation #24) » Wed Dec 09, 2020 6:22 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 36, Hiraki wrote:
Vote: Bell
@Mod
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Post Post #242 (isolation #25) » Thu Dec 10, 2020 2:22 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 237, Iconeum wrote:
In post 232, Tanner wrote:ico, talk to me about the hiraki vote? i see there's a sheep gif, but still.
hiraki's scumread feels… easy
on the edge of ungenuine

i like my sheepvote there
Do you think I'm making up reasons?
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Post Post #294 (isolation #26) » Thu Dec 10, 2020 9:21 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 255, Gamma Emerald wrote:And how is posting a Wikipedia article towny????
It's not me right? He seems to be defending people left and right and then accusing the accusers for...accusing?
In post 258, Gamma Emerald wrote:First post of the day says we have 6 roses. While your plan isn’t awful it’s not based in reality, it seems.
To add onto this, this also would mean that all 3 scum decided to go rose. Which would mean mountainous, essentially?
In post 260, Gamma Emerald wrote:Where are you seeing that?
Uh oh!
In post 265, Gamma Emerald wrote:As for the “pointless question”, I kinda feel like you doing that then felt like you were overeager to look helpful. But it wasn’t a strong vibe which was why I asked about it.
Gamma, I like this. Everytime we've played recently we've been on the same wavelength. It's good.
In post 275, Gamma Emerald wrote:I won’t deny Hiraki’s Bell read seems OMGUSy but I think he’s mildly predisposed to that sort of thinking. Can you give real reasons you feel this way?
I think he thinks that I was scumreading Akarin. Kind of blew the load there with this though. I wanted to see how far that would go and I honestly have no clue why Ico would be thinking that way other than the fact that it looks like he is thinking that way. Either way, lots of weird connections between random people in Day 1 here.
In post 277, Bell wrote:I got the job. :]
Probably hopefully.
Fingers crossed!
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Post Post #296 (isolation #27) » Thu Dec 10, 2020 9:31 am

Post by Hiraki »

Ah, I misread. Looked too hard at the role PMs. Need to read the other games too.
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Post Post #305 (isolation #28) » Thu Dec 10, 2020 12:01 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 299, Bell wrote:@Hiraki, not just you. It’s complicated by Gamma’s playstyle somewhat. It’s very common for him to white knight as town.
I’m not sure how self-aware he is about it and whether he would play into that as scum tho.
Nah, I've played with Gamma enough.
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Post Post #307 (isolation #29) » Thu Dec 10, 2020 12:28 pm

Post by Hiraki »

I didn't know either. If that is, I'm not even talking about you there.
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Post Post #315 (isolation #30) » Thu Dec 10, 2020 3:15 pm

Post by Hiraki »

I was talking about Akarin. Guess people weren't agreeing.
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Post Post #330 (isolation #31) » Thu Dec 10, 2020 4:59 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 328, Akarin wrote:And as for defending people, I like to defend people when a lot of people are sort of shrugging themselves into agreeing with bad pushes.
That doesn't correlate with what I said but ok. Sorry for the mistake.
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Post Post #342 (isolation #32) » Thu Dec 10, 2020 7:01 pm

Post by Hiraki »

@Mod: Any news about JohnnyFarrar?
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Post Post #346 (isolation #33) » Thu Dec 10, 2020 7:34 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 343, Iconeum wrote:
In post 242, Hiraki wrote:
In post 237, Iconeum wrote:
In post 232, Tanner wrote:ico, talk to me about the hiraki vote? i see there's a sheep gif, but still.
hiraki's scumread feels… easy
on the edge of ungenuine

i like my sheepvote there
Do you think I'm making up reasons?
i'm saying that the reasons feel easy, to the point where it fits how i'd push as scum early day 1
So the reasons are valid but easy?
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Post Post #352 (isolation #34) » Thu Dec 10, 2020 7:47 pm

Post by Hiraki »

and...now...you're...voting...the...easy...person...read?
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Post Post #411 (isolation #35) » Sat Dec 12, 2020 3:04 am

Post by Hiraki »

PSA: Deadline is in just under 2 days unless there is an extension because JohnnyFarrar hasn't posted in this thread since Monday. Tanner also isn't too far off from prod range.
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Post Post #479 (isolation #36) » Sat Dec 12, 2020 10:56 pm

Post by Hiraki »

Bell = Mom >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Akarin
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Post Post #486 (isolation #37) » Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:36 am

Post by Hiraki »

let the record show that i called mena VI and jake scum from the very beginning of that game
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Post Post #487 (isolation #38) » Sun Dec 13, 2020 12:42 am

Post by Hiraki »

the fact that bell is trying to undermine gamma's metaread of me (something i also don't agree with because i dont think meta is a good tool) while simultaneously calling him out for asking pointless questions and basically giving out no information (which i disagree with) is pretty hypocritical of this entire conversation because no one is going to vote gamma on a "fake" meta read nor is anyone voting me for a "fake" meta read
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Post Post #498 (isolation #39) » Sun Dec 13, 2020 5:56 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 488, Bell wrote:I'm asking why he said he would rather not use meta as a crutch and then gave you a half-assed meta read 5 minutes later.
Is this the only instance where Gamma calls me town? It's not even the first. You still haven't answered the premise of my post which is "who would actually be convinced by this?" This is just useless bickering about Gamma talking about "vibes" and you're saying that's the crutch of his read.
In post 488, Bell wrote:Also, don't gas light me. Let the record show you later voted Mena's replacement. Though yes, your read of Jake was accurate well done may all rightfully accurate reads be recorded as such.
Yeah, that's fair. I forgot 100% about how badly that slot was blundered.
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Post Post #507 (isolation #40) » Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:00 pm

Post by Hiraki »

Unvote, Vote: Momrangal


Please someone shoot Bell tonight.
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Post Post #508 (isolation #41) » Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:00 pm

Post by Hiraki »

This is E-2.
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Post Post #512 (isolation #42) » Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:07 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 509, Momrangal wrote:I just wanna live the first night tho, honestly. After that, I don't care mich
I hear you - I've been in this situation before. I don't really have any confidence that your current work did anything to sway me over what your predecessor has already done. Especially the fact that the Bell wagon isn't taking off as I'd like it to too.
In post 510, Akarin wrote:I'd rather someone in {Uncrowned, Sandman, Hiraki, Johnny, Gamma} than any of the current wagons, but between Bell or me and Momrangal, at this point much better to lim Momrangal.
The only compromise that you get from me is Johnny. The rest probably flip town (100% for me though!)
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Post Post #519 (isolation #43) » Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:33 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 516, Momrangal wrote:Most of her posts are NAI, and picking that fight with you was definitely so. The rest of her posts had analysis
I disagree with this and I've re-evaluated this read multiple times. Especially the interactions with Gamma have made me really really hinge on this one. I don't think Bell is trying to find scum as much as he is trying to just start arguments for the sake of arguments.
In post 515, Akarin wrote:
In post 512, Hiraki wrote:The only compromise that you get from me is Johnny. The rest probably flip town (100% for me though!)
VOTE: Johnny

I'll take it
Need a majority before I switch.
In post 516, Momrangal wrote:Pedit: uhm sure. You're saying all this while not comtting, not ever having committed to derailing that wagon. It's been building all day and you decide to say something when a more active player takes the slot?
I'd like to add to this that out of all of the people that Akarin decided to compromise with, it's me. The person that she's been gunning for all day and apparently, as scum, I'm going to pick out of a list of 4 people (not including myself) specifically one person who is also scum rather than someone who is town. It's why Akarin is sitting pretty fine in the VI bucket.
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Post Post #521 (isolation #44) » Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:36 pm

Post by Hiraki »

You dodged literally everything I said just to make a cheeky retort. Got em'!
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Post Post #524 (isolation #45) » Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:43 pm

Post by Hiraki »

You've railed on me as scum for the ENTIRE day and then when you don't get your way - you say that I need to re-evaluate my reads because I might be town. Which is it? If you're not going to make sense, then no - I'm not going to pretend that you do. Call it "egomania' or whatever you want.
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Post Post #528 (isolation #46) » Sun Dec 13, 2020 1:51 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 519, Hiraki wrote:I disagree with this and I've re-evaluated this read multiple times. Especially the interactions with Gamma have made me really really hinge on this one. I don't think Bell is trying to find scum as much as he is trying to just start arguments for the sake of arguments.
So much for read the damn game.
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Post Post #559 (isolation #47) » Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:33 pm

Post by Hiraki »

i'm town because i said it, you have to believe me
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Post Post #569 (isolation #48) » Sun Dec 13, 2020 2:44 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 561, Bell wrote:
In post 559, Hiraki wrote:i'm town because i said it, you have to believe me
Aw, are you mocking me? Yes you are.
That's cool. But like, interspersed with the I'm town stuff is stuff that town usually does because town me is doing it so I'm pretty confident that town post how I post because loop.

Repeating it doesn't make it more or less true, nor does it feel like you're making a point. I'm not asking you to believe me. I'm stating my perspective.
as scum, are you also stating your perspective? does it make it more or less convincing?
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Post Post #571 (isolation #49) » Sun Dec 13, 2020 3:33 pm

Post by Hiraki »

so your definitive tell is that if you're scum, you won't say "i'm town" all of the time?
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Post Post #666 (isolation #50) » Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:19 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 653, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 623, Dunnstral wrote:We should massclaim tomorrow, here's my reasoning:

There are enough roses alive to where mafia cannot win the game by shooting a rose every night. They can try, but the game will end naturally before that point.
We have setup information. There are 6 town roses alive. Make mafia claim to be a rose or a gun. Make them claim what night and where they shot, if they're a gun.

This will split the player list in two, and we'll know how many mafia are on each side.
One rose died at night, we're fine
I have been thinking about this a lot. For starters, ABR was a mafia kill. Uncrowned could have been either.

Sell me on this a little more. There's 11 people in this game, I am town so for the purposes of this, I'm taking it out of 10 (this works for everyone in their own position). If there's 6 roses, that leaves 4 gun. That's a 50/50 shot. I like those odds especially with my reads. If there's 7 roses, that leaves 3 gun. That's a 1/3. I don't like those odds and now we have a pool of 5/2. If there's 8 roses, that leaves 2 guns - both confirmed town. Those have a target on their head for the rest of the game but are useful today only based on how mafia plays (additionally at least one of these guns has potentially already shot their shot). Lastly, if there's 5 roses, that confirms all 5 roses as town, mafia is now in a potential auto-loss position. Therefore, they'd absolutely never take this stance.

My concern is that I can't be the only one who has thought this far. The optimal here is that we get 6 roses but that is only based off of scum playing sub-optimal. The other scenarios are heavily scum-sided.
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Post Post #717 (isolation #51) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:32 am

Post by Hiraki »

Vote: JohnnyFarrar
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Post Post #721 (isolation #52) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 4:24 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 719, Gamma Emerald wrote:Are we seriously doing what amount to an RVS wagon D2
Not RVS. He's a waste of a slot and continues to ignore this game while favoring other games.
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Post Post #726 (isolation #53) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 7:25 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 722, Gamma Emerald wrote:That doesn’t really sound like a scumcase
And person who posts bad things with no motivation is one?
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Post Post #800 (isolation #54) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:26 pm

Post by Hiraki »

I'm pretty sure Akarin/Gamma/Umlaut flip town, sorry.
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Post Post #802 (isolation #55) » Sat Dec 19, 2020 3:39 am

Post by Hiraki »

What does that mean?
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Post Post #804 (isolation #56) » Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:39 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 803, Titus wrote:
In post 800, Hiraki wrote:I'm pretty sure Akarin/Gamma/Umlaut flip town, sorry.
Why do you think two highly contested d1 wagons were t v t?

Why are Gamma and Umlaut town?

Why is Johnny scum?
Why? What do you mean why? Is there a rule that this can't happen? Are you really implying this doesn't happen often?

Gamma is the one I'm shaky on. Umlaut is acting like town-Umlaut here which is something that I'd like to test this game. I don't expect anyone to 100% agree with that given how much information I've said though.

Johnny is posting elsewhere and isn't doing anything here except gloating that he's not doing anything. He did this a lot in Day 1 and just stayed under the radar and now he's just openly doing it. I have no reason to believe that kind of gloatpost comes from town other than town that is somewhat playing against their alignment (obviously it's not
flagrant
but it's something).
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Post Post #821 (isolation #57) » Sun Dec 20, 2020 12:30 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 805, Titus wrote:Usually competing counterwagons mean scum are invested in the outcome. The simplest, but not only way, is that the counter is scum. So I am wondering why you think otherwise and what purpose Akarin could have served scum so they went to that much effort to save him?
I think this is very simplistic if not even wrong.
In post 805, Titus wrote:Why did you mention Gamma unprompted if you're shaky on that read?
The three were talking to each other. Seemed like there could be discussion who was scum/town.
In post 809, Bell wrote:
In post 802, Hiraki wrote:What does that mean?
I'm wondering if you have good reasons to think all 3 are town or if you just really want Johnny dead rn.
Is there a problem with thinking both?
In post 820, Gamma Emerald wrote:I personally felt like Akarin’s reads weren’t valid for a town POV
You’ll have to ask the others for their reasons on Akarin cos I don’t remember theirs rn
I agree with this but I don't think Akarin flips scum.
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Post Post #834 (isolation #58) » Sun Dec 20, 2020 2:04 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 823, Bell wrote:@Hiraki, no. Don't gotcha me. I'm town.
I don't "gotcha" people.
In post 827, DrippingGoofball wrote:
In post 826, Tanner wrote:i believe he's currently at E-2, and is him claiming really gonna do anything?
yes it will.
Play me the fool. What's the difference.
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Post Post #868 (isolation #59) » Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:41 am

Post by Hiraki »

There's only 3 days left. If you haven't made a splash yet, I'd do so now. I'm very very much okay with my JF vote.
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Post Post #893 (isolation #60) » Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:35 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 872, Titus wrote:I am rather conflicted about the claim talk. I feel objectively that most claims should be eliminated but scum would naturally claim the ones that shouldn't be.
What do you think about what I said about it? I just don't see how there's any town positive benefit to it - except maybe if I didn't put my post down and just hoped that scum would play sub-optimally.
In post 886, Gamma Emerald wrote:I’d rather this than JF, why the fuck did she ask the same exact question twice? It’s shallow questioning that is meant to appear productive but isn’t.
I don't blame you but what if it's just bad play? I don't see the scum-motive other than going slow. Which is fair but I think there are a lot better candidates there.
In post 890, Firebringer wrote:I haven’t read any of this game and I was hoping for scum lurk out slot to play this game

My pred picked a rose.

I’ll read through after work
Why aren't you just lying then? Tell me why to take off my vote and put it back on Bell (probably).
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Post Post #1030 (isolation #61) » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:41 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 925, Gamma Emerald wrote:I feel like you’ve been a bit terse all game Tanner, and it makes you hard to read imo. I wonder if it’s stylistic or scum holding their tongue.
Agreed.
In post 937, Gamma Emerald wrote:VOTE: Dunnstral
I’m not confident about this but I think it’s a better shot compared to FB
I'm actually agreeing here, especially after the claim situation.

Unvote, Vote: Dunnstral


Didn't really have much to say after that. I'm not 'loving' hoping off Fire but Fire makes a great point that it feels like his wagon is composed of stagnation rather than a scumread. Wagons are tied baby.
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Post Post #1038 (isolation #62) » Wed Dec 23, 2020 1:49 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 1036, Tanner wrote:also, this speedwagon on dunn is making my stomach turn. he went from no votes to E-1 in what, 5 pages? 8 hours? while the other wagon was an uphill battle for the whole day?
I really don't think "uphill" is the right word here. Stalled, sure. Uphill? No way.
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Post Post #1039 (isolation #63) » Wed Dec 23, 2020 2:05 am

Post by Hiraki »

I wanted to do a follow-up just to make sure I'm sure about this since it is a bit of a drastic stance here. I feel much better after writing this.
In post 681, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 666, Hiraki wrote:
In post 653, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 623, Dunnstral wrote:We should massclaim tomorrow, here's my reasoning:

There are enough roses alive to where mafia cannot win the game by shooting a rose every night. They can try, but the game will end naturally before that point.
We have setup information. There are 6 town roses alive. Make mafia claim to be a rose or a gun. Make them claim what night and where they shot, if they're a gun.

This will split the player list in two, and we'll know how many mafia are on each side.
One rose died at night, we're fine
I have been thinking about this a lot. For starters, ABR was a mafia kill. Uncrowned could have been either.

Sell me on this a little more. There's 11 people in this game, I am town so for the purposes of this, I'm taking it out of 10 (this works for everyone in their own position). If there's 6 roses, that leaves 4 gun. That's a 50/50 shot. I like those odds especially with my reads. If there's 7 roses, that leaves 3 gun. That's a 1/3. I don't like those odds and now we have a pool of 5/2. If there's 8 roses, that leaves 2 guns - both confirmed town. Those have a target on their head for the rest of the game but are useful today only based on how mafia plays (additionally at least one of these guns has potentially already shot their shot). Lastly, if there's 5 roses, that confirms all 5 roses as town, mafia is now in a potential auto-loss position. Therefore, they'd absolutely never take this stance.

My concern is that I can't be the only one who has thought this far. The optimal here is that we get 6 roses but that is only based off of scum playing sub-optimal. The other scenarios are heavily scum-sided.
How is it scum-sided, though?

How is it worse than not claiming?
I actually missed this post so my bad but the fact that you're not hollering about this anymore and your response was this isn't really making me feel better.

1) It's scum-sided because I don't know how it's town-sided in anyway. We're giving scum information while town has to decipher more scum deception. Again - the only way your play would've worked optimally is if scum played sub-optimally unless I'm missing something drastic which you haven't revealed.

2) I still haven't found the benefit to claiming other than lessening the odds and that's something I made clear in this post. If there's another benefit, you haven't made it clear.

The sequence of posts from 772 to 777 is hypocritical.
In post 780, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 779, Gamma Emerald wrote:Do you have anything you think she’s town for?
7/11 players left in the game are town. Upon an absence of any incriminating evidence, they are more likely to be town
Yet this is what you want to go against JF for?
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Post Post #1075 (isolation #64) » Wed Dec 23, 2020 12:37 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 1040, Dunnstral wrote:I'm not pushing for mass claim anymore because most people didn't want to do it
That's not what I asked though. You can't just scurry away from an answer and then say "well, doesn't really matter anymore" - you still pushed for it without giving a lot of reasoning and then when I went into my own line of logic, I couldn't figure out a single towny take-away. Now that I did that, your response was almost 'meta-ish'.
In post 1045, Gamma Emerald wrote:And you’re okay shooting Dunn but not limming him? WHY???
I usually misread Ico. I don't really remember that with Dunn especially based off of the current line of logic I'm pursuing.
In post 1057, Akarin wrote:@Hiraki: I actually posted on the benefit to claiming earlier.

I
don't
actually think we should have claimed at that point, but I don't think it's anywhere near as crazy or scumsided as you're implying it was. I think there was a perfectly valid argument to be made for it.

And yeah, I think you're either missing something on the mech front, or just having a kneejerk mech-is-bad reaction.

If that's your main reason for scumreading Dunn I think your read is bad.
What is the argument? You can't tell me I'm missing something and expect me to just pass off whatever I'm missing. No one works that way.
In post 1072, Gamma Emerald wrote:I feel like Hiraki and Bell took a lot of work to get on the wagon
For JF or Dunn?

@Mod: Can we have an extension for Maxwell? He joined with less than 24 hours left today.
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Post Post #1078 (isolation #65) » Wed Dec 23, 2020 12:42 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 1077, Gamma Emerald wrote:btw why'd you bring up you misreading Ico a lot?
Because I agree with your rationale against Ico but I feel that Ico has a tendency to do that as either slot. I guess putting it a little better is that I am apprehensive to use 'normal' tells for Ico. I'm not saying anything about Ico - it's just using past experiences to guide me. I've been burnt before, etc. etc.
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Post Post #1099 (isolation #66) » Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:28 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 1083, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1075, Hiraki wrote:
In post 1040, Dunnstral wrote:I'm not pushing for mass claim anymore because most people didn't want to do it
That's not what I asked though. You can't just scurry away from an answer and then say "well, doesn't really matter anymore" - you still pushed for it without giving a lot of reasoning and then when I went into my own line of logic, I couldn't figure out a single towny take-away. Now that I did that, your response was almost 'meta-ish'.
In post 1045, Gamma Emerald wrote:And you’re okay shooting Dunn but not limming him? WHY???
I usually misread Ico. I don't really remember that with Dunn especially based off of the current line of logic I'm pursuing.
In post 1057, Akarin wrote:@Hiraki: I actually posted on the benefit to claiming earlier.

I
don't
actually think we should have claimed at that point, but I don't think it's anywhere near as crazy or scumsided as you're implying it was. I think there was a perfectly valid argument to be made for it.

And yeah, I think you're either missing something on the mech front, or just having a kneejerk mech-is-bad reaction.

If that's your main reason for scumreading Dunn I think your read is bad.
What is the argument? You can't tell me I'm missing something and expect me to just pass off whatever I'm missing. No one works that way.
In post 1072, Gamma Emerald wrote:I feel like Hiraki and Bell took a lot of work to get on the wagon
For JF or Dunn?

@Mod: Can we have an extension for Maxwell? He joined with less than 24 hours left today.
I went for mass claim because I believe it is a good play. You disagreed, and some town disagreed. I think they're wrong but didn't push it further
Again, not my point. I called it a fundamentally scummy approach and you have yet to justify the town merits. I don't see town making this proposition without discussion, regardless of your play style.
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Post Post #1151 (isolation #67) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 6:13 pm

Post by Hiraki »

I also find it interesting that two of the mafia flip N3 gun after Dunn's almightly massclaim plan that was never explained. I don't want to think about it too hard but assuming that the other mafia has literally anything else, at that point they'd just need to eliminate one town rose and it would be good game, assuming they all made it to D3 (i.e. today). That was a close one to say the least.
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Post Post #1185 (isolation #68) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 6:38 pm

Post by Hiraki »

In post 1177, DrippingGoofball wrote:Where is Hiraki? I'd like Hiraki next.
N2 rose - each shit scum if you tried to kill me
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Post Post #1188 (isolation #69) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 6:40 pm

Post by Hiraki »

you wanna go next? i'm not really picky - i am pretty hard on a dunn flip atm
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Post Post #1225 (isolation #70) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 7:06 pm

Post by Hiraki »

pretty sure we're at E-1 btw
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Post Post #1262 (isolation #71) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 4:42 pm

Post by Hiraki »

I was waiting for more from Akarin because she is confirmed town at this point.
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Post Post #1271 (isolation #72) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:13 pm

Post by Hiraki »

try as you may

still waiting on akarin
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Post Post #1272 (isolation #73) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:18 pm

Post by Hiraki »

i was also thinking dunn -> titus -> DGB

i dont see DGB flipping but it's my last try if things are really that sour
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Post Post #1283 (isolation #74) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 6:27 pm

Post by Hiraki »

I would much rather have Dunn today and a possible replacement for Akarin at this rate. Scum is going to kill one of Gamma/Akarin tonight (in the scenario Dunn flips town) and I don't think it's smart to move forward until those slots are secured - otherwise the kill is almost assuredly Gamma. Not playing too many games with this right now.
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Post Post #1305 (isolation #75) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:51 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 1299, Bell wrote:I think 101# is just Hiraki either trying to convince Tanner to vote me because he thinks I'm scum in game versus out of game. To me this post seems more or less in-congruent with them being scum partners, though, if they wanted to change a scum partners mind they would need to post in thread as a stimulus to get them moving, you could post in the PT but then they either need to come up with their own reasons or not do so. Tanner essentially does nothing with this.
If i wanted to get someone to vote someone else, i would've told the person in the PT to do it and to come up with independent reasons. Doing it in thread to create connections when there's a PT available is such a terrible idea. This is one of the main reasons that I've been ignoring the whole connections thing. I think it's a dead-end. Scum have a PT and they've been using it because no one really saw the connections here and even now we're having trouble piecing them together.
In post 1299, Bell wrote:(no way does anyone ignore Hiraki's argument with dunn about claiming here, so not a good hope here I think)
Dunn still hasn't given a reason why it's pro-town. He's refused to do so under the guise of that no one wants it anyway. Akarin noted that there might be something setup related that I'm missing and then when prompted on it hasn't given an answer.
In post 1301, Bell wrote:It's just their results are strange.
I agree here. Tanner is the only person I would've really gone after today (I know - hindsight is 20/20). But I don't think I would've caught Gun-slot scum. I was really confident in my TR on that slot.
In post 1304, Bell wrote:There really isn't a need for scum to plan who they'd rather push, town 2 or town 3.
Or rather, it's fairly rare for scum to have an order in mind.
Correct and it's meta but I also do not make plans as scum other than do X (like flip townies). It's hand-in-hand with what I'm saying above where at least I'm making a plan but it's not really a plan as much as it is an action to get something done.
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Post Post #1310 (isolation #76) » Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:34 pm

Post by Hiraki »

There's still 364 days left.

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