PookyTheMagicalBear v Flavor Leaf (Game Over)

[Solstice]

[The vigilante killed Not Known, yes. Why do you want to know who it is?]

~Morning

[Solstice]

I thought it was some kind of weird shenanigans with the Solstices role.

[Oh there's shenanigans with our role, that's for sure, just not in that way]

[I didn't know scum could really get a hold of extra killing power, at least from a general balancing perspective. Maybe that's why we got so much power though -- or it could just be a red herring]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Anyhow, I really wanna hear about why Solstice thought Dunn wasn't aligned with Bell when Dunn literally would not vote Bell like no matter what and when Pooky said it could be DEB Dunn was like "So you're saying that the detectives can be scum" and voted DEB like hello?

@Solstice

188
1491

i think the frustration in those posts is unlikely to be directed to a partner

~mist

[Solstice]

also hello all happy solstice (heh)

i have finals for the next three days so MT will probably be posting more than me

~mist

[Solstice]

[Anyone who thinks Ydrasses' reaction to Hectic's death was hard to fake is off their rocker]

[i don't think it's inherently scummy but it is not hard to fake being over-the-top as a joke, since you're essentially already faking it anyway. It didn't even register with me as something important and when ppl mentioned Ydrasse got upset i legitimately had no idea what you guys were talking about]

me too... im literally shaking and crying rn you dont get it, im heartbroken to lose my rock, my anchor, my soulmason this game, we bonded so much, im in agony, theres a hole ripped inside of me where my heart is and the mafia stole it from me and i think they're eating it in a ritual or something i have to hope theyre using it well but really i am just so numb rn i cant even explain it why did this happen to me why why why why why why why

[Ydrasse really does love pichu, but not only as town -- and Ydrasse wasn't crying over pichu's death as either alignment. So I'm unsure which part is supposed to be town!AI]

just because pichu killed scum doesnt mean he couldnt have been scum, did they ever think about that when they did the night kill.....???

oh no... oh no no no polar bear express no.... what are you doing sweetie......

i'm just going to pretend i don't see these posts... *smiles sweetly*

does ircher actually think im scum if he doesnt have me in his reads list ..............

[And now that Ydrasse has been unleashed from pichu, she starts doing these shades which are also kind of awkward]

[But on the plus side, pichu felt pretty sure Ydrasse was town which is hard to argue with. Like that is probably the strongest reasoning for me not suspecting Ydrasse]

Spoiler:

are you scum bell? it’s ok... we’ll accept you as you are

well that’s awkward ......

pichu wouldn’t lead me astray right?

oh no who do i trust......

FIEND

YOU HAD ME THINKING YOU WERE HAMMERED

[This part where Ydrasse second guesses everything after mistakenly thinking Bell was reacting to being hammered by claiming town is good]

mastina, i'll give you ONE MORE CHANCE to push on someone... if it flips town we will be having a stern talk...........

i was willing to accept this as creature's town play earlier bc it was my only experience with him but like. yeah.

VOTE: creature

[This feels terrible to me but maybe it's just too obviously terrible.]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Anyway here's what i was curious about]

Spoiler: Ydrasse on Polarbear

oh no... oh no no no polar bear express no.... what are you doing sweetie......

i'm just going to pretend i don't see these posts... *smiles sweetly*

vt!

town: mastina (with an asterisk to think about if she's still around endgame and we're struggling to find mafia), solstice, ircher, deb barring any role shenanigans

scum: polar bear express, toogeloo, spiffeh, maybe dunnstral

[

@Ydrasse

, what exactly did you find scummy about Polarbears?]

~Morning

[bump bump bump]

~Morning

[Solstice]

He counterclaimed because he's the supersaint and he thought Bell had enough cred to survive

[No, he definitely sealed Bell's fate by claiming. there was no way we killed DEB over Bell there. This is a bad argument for DEB being the supersaint]

He counterclaimed because he's the supersaint and he thought Bell had enough cred to survive

I don't buy this btw

If scum wants to make use of their supersaint ability they're not going to guilty/counterclaim another scum player, they're gonna get their money's worth and guilty/counterclaim a town player so they get the most town deaths for their own death

[Yup.]

[It is fair that CCing a scum player and then turning around and suicide bombing somebody the next day seem to be conflicting strategies.]

Convenience here really shouldn't matter. Yes, it's possible that DEB is lying, but yoo can't just look at it from the angle that he is lying. Also, Dunnstral was pretty much in the lim pool anyway. That kinda makes Dunnstral a poor choice to fake guilty because Dunnstral is almost certainly gone before the end of the game.

Dunnstral claimed not vig by refuting Dr Easy Bake's claim. I see no reason for us to lim DEB first here; as mentioned, the vig can always shoot DEB if we're wrong. This just makes much more sense from a mechanical viewpoint, and quite frankly, I don't think DEB's actions are necessarily super scum-indicative for DEB. They may be a little bit, bur not enough to override making the better mechanical play here.

[That is fair, I do not know why Dunn would be chosen. I would argue that if he guiltied you or Mastina, we might have killed him first and it'd have been ruined. And then most of the other players are still in the elim pool with Dunn. My guess is they vig read him in that scenario]

[Voting out Dunn so that DEB stays alive if he's town is the safest play, for sure. i can't really be sure DEB is scum over Dunn beyond him just having a really, really lucky streak]

In case my stance isn't clear here, I really think we should lim Dunn here. Then we vig DEB if we're wrong. If we are correct, we have a detective who can still get us results. Alternatively, scum kills detective!DEB which is still a major plus because the masons can still dominate in the day.

[If DEB is town, how do scum even win this after being forced to leave 3 masons alive into day 4? That's rough lol]

~Morning

[Solstice]

i have my reasons and i would like to be quiet on them for now

[oo veryy mysterioussss]

Like, what's the hold up?
My case directly proves that dunkin is lying about being VT.
Any vig would probably out their role knowing it would be a saving grace so I doubt that's the case with them.

[No i get that, that's not really the hold up]

[You missing what is so suspicious about your circumstances is maybe towny cause u weren't aware of it idk lmao]

Also ftr I have no intention of lynching outside DEB/Dunn

[Ye it'd be madness to not shoot within the coin flip]

[i think overall I don't suspect DEB so much that it overrides just doing the safe play of eliminating Dunn -> see what happens next]

[DEB not even realizing why we're waiting might be towny -- and if he is actually a detective, scum is in serious hot water with 3 masons up. And it is fair that there probably isn't.. obvious scum motivation behind trading for Dunn]

VOTE: Dunn [X-3]

~Morning

[Solstice]

I suggested this to Pooky and Pooky was like "bro why doesn't she just claim VT"
and first I was like "Ya that's a good question"
but now im like "idunno, having town think there's a supersaint in the game could be good for scum, maybe its possible that scum could do something with that."

cuz like the justification for the claim to me comes across as super messy but it probably is just a red harring or something.

[Sure there's probably some conceivable scenario where scum wants us to think there's a supersaint, and maybe thats even why FL caused our role to happen. But you're paranoid of something you don't even have a hypothesis for yet? like do you have an idea of why scum wants us to be paranoid of hammers]

[and yea again I wasn't really thinking about it, I thought of it like enabling a town PR where we wouldn't want to out it and warn scum of its existence -- I realize that is really dumb now cause then we could just always leash the hammers, but i was thinking of it in a more conventional way]

~Morning

[Solstice]

@Players who think Ydrasse is scum for fluffing

- viewtopic.php?f=83&t=85282 here's your evidence that helps prove Ydra is town for fluffing. Hell tbh, in her scum games I find that she fluffs way less.

[Ydrasse did a lot of fluff in Forest Fire (scum game) but yeah not nearly as much as in this game true]

Does anyone want to be the person that hammers?

Ideally, just to appease supersaint paranoia, it should be a volunteer from the players that're loosely in the suspect pool, e.g. Spiffeh, Toogeloo (good luck on that one though), maybe someone who we think is town but is possible to be scum which others have fingered (e.g. Solstice, Ydrasse).

But coordinating that might be more trouble than it's worth especially if the designated volunteer doesn't want to actually follow through.

[Toog already volunteered to be the hammer btw]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[If you wanted to sacrifice him this is probably how you'd do it.
~Morning

I mean.
DEB-scum sacrificing himself to take out someone who was probably going down today or tomorrow anyway?
Not impossible, although obviously by necessity what happened if Dunn flips town here.

More likely is either DEB town with a genuine guilty or DEB scum faking a guilty on a scumbuddy. Either way, Dunnstral's a pretty sure bet at being scum.

[I think all of Dunn/Toog/Spiffeh/mayyyybe Polar could be considered players who were potentially going down anyway, so its a big pool. You're right that Dunn isn't really a priority, but had Dr Easy picked mastina/Ircher it'd have been a lot more likely we just don't believe him. And if Dr Easy was going to have to be killed for his claim at some point, then it makes sense to claim a guilty and try to get the vig]

[Of course, maybe DEB gets away with staying alive for a while, so maybe scum doesn't make that play. so i prefer the safe play of removing Dunn first anyway]

[If Dr Easy is scum guiltying his teammate, isn't that just completely game-losing?]

~Morning

[Solstice]

open your third eyes and you’ll see i’m town.

[My solve doesn't have enough room thoo]

~Morning

[Solstice]

i would’ve played the exact same way as scum as i am now btw

~Morning

[Solstice]

Solstice’s post makes sense because she did a 180 on us for pretty much no reason.

[I am interested in Ydrasse's read on you, yes, although that is not exactly why]

And I still want an answer on that AtE question and I don’t gaf if it’s pissing you off. Why would you tr Ydrasse based on AtE and not me?

[Ydrasse has not employed AtE in this game]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Solstice’s post makes sense because she did a 180 on us for pretty much no reason.

[I am interested in Ydrasse's read on you, yes, although that is not exactly why]

And I still want an answer on that AtE question and I don’t gaf if it’s pissing you off. Why would you tr Ydrasse based on AtE and not me?

[Ydrasse has not employed AtE in this game]

~Morning

Isn’t that what you posted earlier?

[No.]

[Anyway here's what i was curious about]

Spoiler: Ydrasse on Polarbear

oh no... oh no no no polar bear express no.... what are you doing sweetie......

i'm just going to pretend i don't see these posts... *smiles sweetly*

vt!

town: mastina (with an asterisk to think about if she's still around endgame and we're struggling to find mafia), solstice, ircher, deb barring any role shenanigans

scum: polar bear express, toogeloo, spiffeh, maybe dunnstral

[

@Ydrasse

, what exactly did you find scummy about Polarbears?]

~Morning

[I don't really know what Ydrasses' prior on you read was, if i recall correctly i skimmed her ISO and found mostly nothing on reads since she's just been doing the thing with pichu. What i was curious about was what pinged Ydrasse in 4525/4526, as well as if there were some other reasoning for putting Polarbears in scum, as I figured there is prolly something else.]

[I don't find that suspecting you is suspicious in of itself, as there are several town players in this game who have and/or are currently suspecting you. what i am curious about is if Ydrasse's read on you is genuine or not, and i cannot tell just by reading her readslist. I thought the way she sort of shaded you/Ircher without saying much else is kinda weak, but not conclusive at all.]

[Now, as for why I'm asking about your slot specifically -- I feel that your slot is an important one for scum to get rid of in order to win this game. Dunn/Toog/Spiffeh I believe were already on lock coming into today for the most part. Yours, not so much, you're very controversial]

[you could kinda say that a 180 is something scum has to do, yes. But like. I can't even find where Ydrasse gave a townread on you. So i'm guessing that was some early game stuff that doesn't matter much to me anymore]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[I read through Forest Fire Ydrasse again, and she is less fluffy than I remember there. She did keep up the illusion of trying to solve pretty much the whole way through, even if she wasn't really most of the time -- she spent a lot of time promising she would]

[i will definitely concede if she's scum here, then she's improved. Reason i was looking into Ydrasse so much is because Toog/Spiffeh kept making me second guess. Spiffeh still does, really. i should expand on that a bit sometime. i came into today expecting Spiffeh to be my #1 pick but i talked myself out of it. Should look at that again, but basically the part where he thinks Bell is a tracker, as well as his read on Creature, as well as i guess tone made me put him above the others]

[Toog, less so.. still kinda samey there. the hyper focus on Noraabear vaguely reminds me of Gamma Emerald in warlock/werewolf/vampire just focusing on tunneling one player and putting a lot of effort just there. Obviously the case itself is not terribly good but i have mixed feelings on whether or not they believe it]

[If it's Dunn + Toog + ?, I am really running out of ideas for the last scum.]

[I'm pretty good on Polarbears/Mastina being town]

[Ircher I could like maybe create a deepwolf theory for, cause he retained Murdercat at the bottom of his reads for reasoning which i never really got, plus of course Creature, so he was set to not bus his buddies beyond Bell. Idk though cause I like Ircher. Tbh I think mastina did the same thing with MC but I could buy Ircher!scum more i think since she actively drove miselims (BM + Creature kind of) whereas Ircher was more concurring iirc. Oh yeah and Toog is scum in this scenario so that's good for Mastina. whereas with Ircher, he had Toog as his third pick and the only scum in his bottom 5.]

[I think having Dr Easy guilty Dunn today is game-losing for scum and i don't really see why it wouldn't be]

[Ydrasse went over..]

[And then yeah just Spiffeh and that's it. And it very well could be Spiffeh but it doesn't feel so good anymore]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[I think having Dr Easy guilty Dunn today is game-losing for scum and i don't really see why it wouldn't be]

Not game-losing. Probably a bad trade, objectively. They could have theorized that I was vig, since there was no shot last night.

[Game-losing if you're SvS with Easy, i mean.]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Is it possible scum thought Dr Easy had so little cred and also felt it was unlikely he got a useful result, so they aimed to RB vig instead? Dunno -- it does seem like they'd RB him, yeah. There are a lot of possibilities]

[Don't think i'd be willing to go Toog first, i think Toog should be the hammer vote in either case. I can review Toog (specifically Ali vs. mastina on them) later though to get a better read on them]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Mm, dang.]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[it's not Polarbears or Ydrasse]

[right now, I think it's Dr Easy + Spiffeh + Mastina/Ircher/Toog]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Pichu was right, Ydrasse is really not like Forest Fire Ydrasse.]

[I believe Gloria of Polarbears is in her town meta with the way she's been responding to suspicion. i will probably fight over this if necessary but i don't feel like reading their million posts]

[--]

[Mastina had a D1 that felt pretty hard to replicate as scum, definitely more likely town than Ircher i think i tinfoiled more abt the two of them yesterday. I would see ircher!scum sooner than mastina!scum.]

[Toog is a weird case cause i almost feel like they never flip scum but it's a bit difficult to explain.]

[--]

[Spiffeh is just kind of left on the outside, I have two reasons to townread him but they're not terribly swaying -- I think his misinterpretation of Bell's claim was believable, and also they had decent-looking frustration in response to Double Trouble, the vig pool, etc. Nothing that i can say is clearing and i feel he has less going for him than most other slots]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Toog is a weird case cause i almost feel like they never flip scum but it's a bit difficult to explain.]

[I think Toog is scummy, but they have posts that just surprise me I think. The case on Polarbears is obviously not good, and it's totally possible they just do all this "Vig shoot me" and "I'll eat the supersaint" stuff knowing fully well neither of those will ever happen. But even then..]

What do you think of DEB v Dunn?

I think the plan to lynch Deb is fine. I think I can hammer, and if DEB is legit, the vig can shoot Dunn. If scum have a SuperSaint and it's DEB, it's better I be the one that hammers.

I'd probably say DEB is more likely town than Dunn. I can't imagine a game where one scum counter claims another scum and then suicides either another scum buddy or himself the next day with a real or fake scan.

[This is completely wild to me -- although i dont know in which direction. Toog, why'd you want to eliminate DEB first? Or more specifically, what was going through your mind when you made these? Ircher pointed out these two posts and you never responded, so im curious]

~Morning

[Solstice]

It's also kind of important everyone convey right now their pick for scum in the event I flip town. I'm the current easy target for the scum team to get a miselim on, but someone else is right above me that the scum are eyeballing to take out as well. Be on your toes.

[Who

is

scum, Toog?]

~Morning

[Solstice]

I'd also like to point out that if I were scum, there's no chance in hell I elim DT ahead of another Mason when DT is quite literally the only player to express that they think I'm town.

[DT was always the mason scum was gonna kill first, i don't think it matters if they townread you and you're scum. That'd actually look bad on them to leave DT alive for that, really]

~Morning

[Solstice]

What do you hate about my two posts, Solstice?

I was advocating that DEB lynch was fine first, despite my town read on DEB due to counter claims and suicides. Wouldn't it make more sense for me to endorse the Dunn lynch as scum?

[Hm? I did figure out why it looked like you were contradicting yourself but i asked the question anyway cause idk. I see in the context that you thinking DEB is more town but also being alright with DEB being eliminated first is not contradictory.]

[And i don't know, is that better for you to do as scum? Personally i dont really think your opinion would be a huge deciding factor in either wagon, so you would be free to say whichever one you think looks better.]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[I did actually like Spiffeh's read on Creature though, hrmm]

Spoiler: Posts like these and so on

If Creature's town I will reevaluate

I think Creature has a phenomenal shot at flipping scum

If you disagree than you can explain why, but I'm not going to let go of one of the few scum reads I feel decently about on the off chance that they could be a mason (which I doubt btw)

I find it funny that I'm the one getting shit for avoiding acknowledging Bell (which is patently untrue I might add!)

When Creature, the scummiest slot in the game, has been completely absent ever since the heat got off of him

If Creature outlasts me in this game I'm probably gonna take a LONG break from mafia after this

Creature if you were to do anything literally remotely town whatsoever I'd be willing to reevaluate

But I don't have a ton of reads south of null right now so you dying is still my highest priority sorry

Other than Creature I'm kind of at a loss for who the other scum are?

Bell's not really one I want to consider any further today, I feel like if Bell were scum he would come up with a more useful thing to claim to ensure he survives the day? Especially with Flavor Leaf in his corner

I'm worried I wrote a few players off too early on Day 1 (Dunnstral most notably) and should probably reread but that sounds like a lot rn

Creature what makes you think that I am more likely to be scum that's wrong rather than town that's wrong?

[That was pretty well done if faked. I also like the locktown on Polarbears]

[pedit: In a little while, don't worry. i might even sub Spiffeh out. who knows where i'm going with this! ..i didn't review during the night]

[What it feels like to me so far is that the solve is not Spiffeh/Toog.]

[My town!Toog feelings are starting to dwindle actually. I have been looking long and hard at these two's ISOs. I felt like i had less for Spiffeh earlier, but actually, think that's probably wrong]

K, I'm detective.
N1 I investigated Toog who killed no one.
Good job everyone.
Good job.

This is, at the very least: a plausible claim with a plausible target.

What, am I a rookie? Is Bell a Rookie?

You telling me that I would literally take any action at all on N1 as scum after claiming VT? Watchers and Trackers would keep me from ever taking an action after a post 1 VT claim let alone worrying about someone specifically checking I did the kill. Even more so with the fact that we know that scum can multitask.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: mastina

I'm kind of working on this mastina, polar bear scum team at the moment.

[This is sorta over-the-top. and no, they never really get a mastina-polarbear thingy going.]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Creature

I'd rather this than Bell.

Spoiler: Toog on Bell

Bell might be scum too, but my vote there is on faith.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Creature

I'd rather this than Bell.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Bell

THUNDERNUKE!
(-1 I believe)

unvote please, I want to hear from pooky

Pookstar says, THUNDERNUKE.

It would be better if was the hammer and could kill the guy who says I didn't kill anyone though.

I am serious it is almost worthy flashwagoning Toogeloo for that post alone

I double dog dare ya.

Bell, walk me through your reasoning of picking me to scan last night. I claimed VT in my very first post, so if I were scum, surely of all nights to NOT perform a Night Kill it would have been N1. In your wisest of choices, what made you pick me?

Faith?

Town reads pushing your wagon. Other than your claim, I've not had much better than a bill read on you.

The only scenario where Bell makes the claim as scum that I see here is if scum actually do know the town PRs and was attempting to get the real Detective claim out. If scum know all of town's PRs though, that's kind of fucked up.

Spoiler: Spiffeh on Bell

I still think it's unlikely Bell flips scum lol

What does that do to your preflip associatives guys?

If Bell is claiming Tracker and DEB is claiming regular old cop then this is PERFECTLY REASONABLE PAIR OF INVESTIGATIVES ESPECIALLY WHEN WE DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH SCUM POWER THERE IS

I don't know why the fuck DEB would claim here without a guilty unless he is also a Tracker

I do think DEB's counterclaim (even though it's not really a counter claim) is super town though? There's no reason to put yourself out there as scum, especially since it seems like Bell was already going down for anyway?

As much as I'm spiteful at everyone scum reading me for "aVoIdInG tHe BeLl WaGoN" even though I have been obviously town throughout the game

Bell is probably scum and should be the vote for today

[I am actually stupid, Spiffeh's approach to the Bell v. Creature wagons is more organic looking to be honest]

I do think DEB's counterclaim (even though it's not really a counter claim) is super town though? There's no reason to put yourself out there as scum, especially since it seems like Bell was already going down for anyway?

The only scenario where Bell makes the claim as scum that I see here is if scum actually do know the town PRs and was attempting to get the real Detective claim out. If scum know all of town's PRs though, that's kind of fucked up.

[It's kind of a little detail, but Toog thought Bell was more likely town, and the only way he isn't town is if scum knew there was a real town detective and wanted to get them. So they're implying that in a Bell!scum world, then Dr Easy would be town, but isn't outright going there just yet. Whereas Spiffeh came to the outright conclusion that Dr Easy was just town from the claim, which i guess looks a lot better to me. Toog's options for reading Dr Easy in the future are a lot less in stone whereas Spiffeh is making a hard call that his buddy is town there]

The conundrum here is that Bell wim while DEB only countered and took off.

From my PoV, there are two clashing ideas.

1. Both are Detective. If it's a weak role, then it might be possible to have two in a power-lite town. With a roaming doc and two Cats that I know of, that is power-lite so far. But again it depends on the power of the Detective scan. Can it find a killer days afterwards, or just that night only? I'd like both Bell and DEB to clarify this.

2. Scum know town's PRs, which I think would be heinous. People seem to think that Leaf helped design town's power somehow, but no one seems to elaborate on where they know this from, and all I've seen is scum pick roles they want and mods balance town around that. In this case, scum want the Detective out, so Bell is either scum and was hoping to get DEB to claim, or DEB was planning to take claim Detective to eventually out the other Detective. Bell would be more likely scum than DEB in this scenario.

[Toog is never going to have to take a stance against both their partners as long as they use this logic]

Spoiler: Spiffeh on Detective claims

I learned that DEB is literally counterclaiming the same exact role lol

I don't know where I got tracker/cop from

I would have for sure known all of that stuff beforehand if I were scum though!

I think part of my confusion is that I don't even know what a "Detective" is

I thought detective was another term for the general 'investigative' role

don't lol @ me pichu it's true

I don't think I've ever encountered a Detective before

[mmmmmmmmm I want to believe this very badly]

Spoiler: Toog on mastina

I feel like scum!mastina is more likely to lurk this Day out given her hard push on BM yesterday

And the Bell-DEB fiasco is a get out of jail free card for her

You can't disappear after high activity day 1 leading to a mislynch. She's remained active but allowed her reads to ebb and flow with the current game state. One mislynch on Day 1 that she headlines, and her town reads are becoming scum reads because she can read the room and see what people want.

Look at your comment and look at what she is doing, and it actually matches up. She is actively lurking and letting the Bell/DEB thing happen, just like you think scum!mastina would.

It's actively lurking. Posting enough that she keeps a presence, but her posts amount to no push and actually acquiesce to the reads if the vocal majority while still looking like her own. She prepping for Day 3 already.

[This is stuff that sounds good at face value but Toog hasn't really shown to be true]

[Span of posts where Toog is confused about Vigilante/supersaint/vengeful stuff is sort of good-looking but really is not as good as Spiffeh's confusion towards the Tracker/Detective claims. like misunderstanding what Dr Easy and Bell were doing, I feel, would be tricky to fake. Definitely harder than feigning confusion over what a supersaint enabler does and what happened on N1 (which scum wouldn't know by default, i suppose. Their team would tell them it was a vig, but still).]

[obviously i shouldn't give towncred for begging to be vigged and taking the supersaint and so on, *especially* considering scum!Toog probably knows neither of those will happen. I bet FL knew the vig didn't have any shots left by looking at his team's power.]

[I want to hear more about Toog's Polarbears/mastina reads consider they're their strongest ones. I don't think they've mentioned mastina in a while so is that not a thing anymore ?]

[if I can get this soulread on Spiffeh correct I think I'm probably getting a lot closer to the solve, cause Ircher placed Toog in a spot in his reads that is very believable for that team.]



[---------- JUST READ BELOW , IT'S THE ONLY THING I REALLY NEED FEEDBACK ON --------]

I'm out of time, so I'll try to do more later. Noraa has been my #1 scum pick for a while, and I am going to attempt to paint the picture as to why.

Well, if no one's going to read it, it'll save me from finishing it.

I'll just opt for always being a hammer vote for SSfear.

[

@Toooooog

, you never got to the part where you showed us why you feel Noraa is scum, though. You more or less started with the conclusion they are scum and combed their ISO from there -- this is evident by how you say "scum theater?" and stuff like that a bunch while going through. You clearly already started with having her in a bad light]

[You don't gotta go thru their ISO bit by bit, i guarantee most of that will be useless. I just want to know why this has been your most consistent SR. You admitted it didn't have much substance early on, but it stayed your favourite on D2, probably bolstered by Murderkitty's case. But why do *you* think they're scum? i need help getting there, cause I do not think they are scum]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[oh, by the way, what's your opinion on rule of threes, Toog?]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[If you wanted to sacrifice him this is probably how you'd do it.
~Morning

I mean.
DEB-scum sacrificing himself to take out someone who was probably going down today or tomorrow anyway?
Not impossible, although obviously by necessity what happened if Dunn flips town here.

More likely is either DEB town with a genuine guilty or DEB scum faking a guilty on a scumbuddy. Either way, Dunnstral's a pretty sure bet at being scum.

[I think mastina going back on calling Bell and Dr Easy SvS temporarily as a response to Dr Easy's guilty yesterday is more likely town.. insistence on Creature scum also more likely town, still like her D1, and Misty believes mastina is town too. im gonna keep thinking mastina is not a deepwolf here]

I quite liked the Kindred and Vayne stories in particular. (I liked the flirting with Vayne which caused her to go all Tsundere.)

[WOAH those were my only two S+'s]

~Morning

[Solstice]

I think FOURS is more consistent in finding scum. THREES wasn't the rule I was aware of. It's always been FOURS.

I struggle with actually making cases on people, as evident by my attempt to show ISO analysis from PBE. I try to show what I see, and why I don't like it, but my solves always revolve around player motivations and gut.

PBE's posting is a lot of fluff and noise, buddying, and very light on engaging in a way that might turn the majority against them. In many of the big areas where they are pushing reads, they are usually doing it in tandem with another player.

Seems too safe too me.

---

I struggle to articulate my mastina read, and it's almost entirely born out of OMGUS, but the biggest reason I dislike the slot is the very large tonal shift in playstyle from very aggressive Day 1 to more reserved every day afterwards. She was more savage and unrelenting on BM, but felt like she was trying to assuage her reads into a conformed manner since Pichu was currently dominating Day 2. Very much like she was observing how the day was going down and trying to fit that narrative more.

---

Again, I struggle with conveying my thoughts, and a lot of times I post very unfiltered brain spew into my posts. What I'm thinking, when I'm thinking it.

[Ohh that explains the rule of fours you mentioned in the Noraa analysis, then.]

[Crazy fluff and noise from Polarbears is just not a scum-indicative thing for them, Noraa especially. You devoted so much time to pointing that out -- and it's just not scummy for them. I could show you sections of Noraa's other games if you like.]

[Tbh i would say blatant buddying is also more or less what I expect from them, but I would definitely look at it if you pointed out major examples of where Polarbears seem to do that.]

[Mastina has been decently aggressive towards Creature, and now you, wouldn't you say? I am interested in what the big distinction you're noticing between her attitude towards BM and you two is. and I guess why you think that shift is inherently scummy. I would take it down a notch after hard tunneling a townie on the first day -- and i don't really see the big shift you're seeing, I suppose.]

[Like she had BM as lockscum, then Creature as lockscum, and then you. those three reads are very unmoving. She had DEB!scum a little bit before it was cool, too. Your characterization makes it sound like her D1 is savage aggressiveness, whereas later on she was more trying to conform to what everyone else says and be lurkish. And granted, she came around to Bell being scum after a little bit of hesitation, but that certainly wasn't unique to mastina and it didnt automatically make her into a sheep from there on either. its possible I'm just bad at finding what it is you're seeing though]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Yeeeaa that makes sense with regards to Ydrasse, then.]

[I've narrowed myself down to Dr Easy + Toog + Spiffeh/Ircher. I just dont see Polarbears or Mastina being scum really and i realized while reviewing Toog vs. Spiffeh that i like Spiffeh more]

[is Mastina capable of going sicko mode on BM D1 like that as scum? maybe but I feel like that's probably a no most of the time. Also if Toog is scum I don't think i need to worry there anyway.]

[I wonder who Spiffeh even thinks is scum now..?]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[I am actually stupid, Spiffeh's approach to the Bell v. Creature wagons is more organic looking to be honest]

Yup, Spiffeh's approach is more organic--but since we have three scum, he's still the most likely third overall, by virtue of being the least-townie of the slots in the poe.
From your perspective, you know yourself to be town; Ircher is townier than Spiffeh, Ydrasse I am trusting as locktown, and PBE has similar residual trust in locktown as well as being vastly outside what their scum meta apparently is and looking town. If it's not DEB-Toogeloo-Spiffeh, then who would it be? There's a missing scum and it needs to be

someone

who looks town needs to be scum. One player who looks town must, inherently, be scum, due to a third scum beyond DEB and Toogaloo.

(I should note that from my perspective, I view you around the Ircher level of townread as a personally very high townread.)

[Spiffeh is the easiest townread for me to call wrong, yup. Stuff like misunderstanding claims is not as strong as just being a solid town-looking player]

[If there is a scum player that is killing it, though, I would expect that to be Ircher. Not even really for any reason in particular other than he'd be a lot more believable than the other options, and him putting Creature and Murderkitty as his top SRs besides Bell was a bit convenient for scum. i never really got his murdercat read specifically, especially after ircher agreed with me his polarbear case seemed genuine. Not much other than that though]

[I did an ircher reread tho cause why not and it didn't really make me feel that's particularly likely]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Spoiler: mastina

Mastina has been decently aggressive towards Creature, and now you, wouldn't you say? I am interested in what the big distinction you're noticing between her attitude towards BM and you two is. and I guess why you think that shift is inherently scummy. I would take it down a notch after hard tunneling a townie on the first day -- and i don't really see the big shift you're seeing, I suppose.

Eh while Toogaloo's arguments are by and large made in bad faith and highly disingenuous overall, this is one point of his where he does at least have some merit, but you're also right so your point has merit, too.

There is a difference between my D1 play and my D2+ play. But the shift in it has a very, stupidly obvious, cause; being wrong when I was the primary driver of the mislynch is something that makes me fear being the primary driver of another elimination. But I refuse to not contribute, I refuse to give nothing, I refuse to not give content, to entirely be in the back seat and just blindly sheep, so I still give my opinions, I still give my advice, I still give my reads and reasons on my content, just in a more passive way. Is actually a fully subconscious thing; it's not something I consciously choose to do.

She had DEB!scum a little bit before it was cool, too.

I mean I called him de facto scum from the get-go.

Granted, for all of the times I've called him scum (I think in the entirety of this game, there's been one, maybe two, times where I thought DEB might be town? One yesterday when I didn't think he'd sack himself just to eliminate someone who was probably going down anyway, maybe one other time but if so don't remember when; otherwise, been scum the entire time), I don't think I've ever voted him seriously (heck even right now I'm voting Toog!) or seriously pressured him. So as much as I've called him scum basically the entire game, it's at least plausible for me to be a scumbuddy distancing without having committed to a hard bus.

And granted, she came around to Bell being scum after a little bit of hesitation, but that certainly wasn't unique to mastina and it didnt automatically make her into a sheep from there on either.

I was actually the one to point out Bell's defensiveness and having cracked under pressure! That was a point I made before anyone else. Butyeah, I was, sadly, a bit late to the Bellscum train. I had Bell as a read to reevaluate on D2, but I unfortunately had him as initially townier than Dunn/Toog who were one step below him.

Alas.

At least I corrected that mistake later-on tho.

[I suppose i'm missing what he's interpreting as scummy from the change, then. I would not push a read the same way as you did BM after a townflip, i dont think most ppl would. Also the thread's kinda been on auto pilot due to the Bell stuff, then the claims, then DEB's guilty..]

[i thought your reversal on the DEB read due to disbelief he'd off himself for Dunn was at least slightly townie cause you could've kept pushing him and I think Dunn still woulda died. and oh yes i do remember the de facto scum post on DEB]

[I also remember that post about Bell you made -- i was just referring to how you had maybe 1-2 posts where you didn't buy into pichu's case at first.]

deb was supposed to die and yet... nothing

Ah well, suppose this info helps the town more than the scum since FL already knew it was you.

It does help technically narrow the poe down slightly since it means the people calling Ydrasse scum need to reevaluate that stance and helps eliminate the paranoia present there.

[AKA Spiffeh basically. that will be interesting]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Spiffeh and Dr Easy Bake almost certainly. Spiffeh is admittedly a PoE read here; Spiffeh's stances haven't been unreasonable really.

I would guess Toogeloo for third, but rn, I strongly think that may be a trap in that Flavor Leaf wants us to lim there. So I'm not exactly confident there though admittedly, the evidence points in favor of Toogeloo being scum here. I think my conspiracy theory pick for third scum here would be Solstice as mastina and Polar Bears just seem really town this game. (Ydrasse is a trust read here.) But that's a conspiracy pick; by play, Toogeloo is the logical choice for third.

(Also, I think if the game isn't over before then, there's a very very high possibility 3p LimLo is Solstice/Ydrasse/me.)

[Really i think Toog is scummier than Spiffeh so if you're town here i think that's pretty open and shut then]

[Oh, talked with Misty btw and at this point we're fine with DEB/Toog/Spiffeh as top 3]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Sooo who's your guess for scum outside of DEB/Toog now Spiffey?]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[unoffical VC]

[2] DEB <- Creature, Ydrasse
[2] Toogaloo <- mastina, DEB
[6] Not voting <- Spiffeh, Polarbears, Solstice, Toogeloo, Murdercat, Ircher

[with 10 alive, it's 6 to execute]

[pedit: yeah]

~Morning

[Solstice]

so imo either the scum dont have a supersaint and tooge is scum trying to towncred for nothing or

scum do have a supersaint and tooge is actually town

For the record, I still highly doubt scum have a supersaint, but I do agree that if there is a supersaint, Toogeloo is likely town here based on their eagerness to hammer.

[i assume there isn't a supersaint, but if there is one, it is possible that toog themself is the supersaint lul]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[i assume there isn't a supersaint, but if there is one, it is possible that toog themself is the supersaint lul]

~Morning

Are you not the alleged supersaint enabler?

Shouldn't that indicate to you pretty clearly that there is a supersaint?

[well at this point the supersaint would be mainly negative value to scum. We can just leash every hammer to the second scummiest player, and if they refuse, bam we found two scum. so if there really is a supersaint, we're basically just another informed townie]

[Don't really see why scum would want that. Although i guess it'd have been titus who chose this role for town, it just strikes me as a weird design. I'm guessing it's more likely we're a useless / slightly negative red herring rather than additional town power.]

[maybe the supersaint is sorta useful to them if they kill a townie, but still, they're just removing a PoE player for us]

[i assume there isn't a supersaint, but if there is one, it is possible that toog themself is the supersaint lul]

It could be me!
>_> . <_< . >_>

It could be you!

Honestly, I would just assume everyone hammered going forward might be a SuperSaint.

[Yup i agree that's what we should do]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Why did DEB self-hammer there?

[If scum bought that Ydrasse couldn't shoot last night (since I believe she claimed gated), then they were trying to keep it on evens, perhaps?]

Solstice is probably clear from the supersaint flip.
VOTE: Spiffeh

pedit: Yeah, that was I thought as well. Anything else seemed to me like not adhering to win condition. I guess the vig did shoot Toogeloo regardless, SO it wasn't totally a bad move, but it still seems worse than letting someone hammer.

[why does that clear us?]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Spiffeh I think you accused every eligible player]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Why did DEB self-hammer there?

[If scum bought that Ydrasse couldn't shoot last night (since I believe she claimed gated), then they were trying to keep it on evens, perhaps?]

[If DEB spares Toog and Ydrasse doesn't shoot last night, today is:]

[6v2]

[we eliminate toog, there's a nightkill]

[4v2]

[we no elim]

[3v2]

[There's no room for error -- we kill Toog and it immediately goes to Xylo. My knee-jerk response was "Haha he wanted to save Toog", but of course that wasn't necessarily true. But that'd definitely be enough to seal Toog's fate there. We'd have been mega screwed if Ydrasse didn't have a shot last night]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Oh we don't no elim cause masons but you get my point]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Is there a difference between evens and odds?

-nornor

[That's basically what i outlined in that post, but essentially, by self-hammering, i think DEB would have made us lose an entire chance at eliminating if Ydrasse couldn't shoot]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Is Mastina willing to call three different town players confirmed 100% lockscum as mafia and then give lengthy cases for each of them? like does she have the scumrange to do so, I mean. it's impressive if so. i could not for the life of me find a good and recent mastina!scum game example.]

[Ircher i think has had really solid content but maybe not exactly so much solid reasons for me to townlock him. We'll see]

[Once upon a time I had a paranoia of these two for their persistent Murdercat scumreads -- I thought it was so weird they had him so low after both his Polarbears case and the Bell interactions. Murdercat!town coming as a surprise to people.. was a surprise to me. Their reasons for him being scum were not the greatest from what i recall. Maybe Spiffeh is guilty of this too, I don't really remember. I should review this, yup]

[Im going to pick up right after Murdercat's case on Polarbears and onwards from that]

[Why is Murder so special though? Aside from it seeming sorta odd to me that people had him so low and for so long, there was a bit of a conflict between Bell and Murder at the start of D2 where it wasn't clear who'd win out. Maybe there's something telling there. and i'd rather do this then look at whole ISOs.]

[Note, after i wrote these, I naturally ended up putting a lot of focus on Bell too -- so there's that in there as well]

Spoiler: Mastina on Murder and Bell

[Mastina spends the first part of D2 suspecting Creature and talking with Ircher about BM a bit, and does not really pitch in much on Bell v. Murder at first.]

MURDERCAT (I don't really townread MURDERCAT and with a lack of townread and with poe, is reasonable scum candidate)

Dr Easy Bake (is de facto scum)

Creature (I really don't think this is town-Creature)

Where the scumreads probably do have 2-3 scum in them, and the reevaluation slots have the other 1-2.

[Mastina places Murder in her PoE by virtue of him not being a townread and not much more. Bell is just outside her PoE at #5.]

Dunnstral, Toogeloo, Spiffeh, Bell, Ircher (reevaluation needed, this spot probably has 1-2 scum in it)

For the record:
I can say that the Bell of this game very much looks identical to the Bell of MBOS10, but I admit lack of familiarity with the nuances of him as a player to be able to tell if he is definitively town here.
Spiffeh I feel has been getting townier over the course of the game, but with at minimum one scum absent from my readslist, that healthy paranoia I have on him needs to be addressed because there's a rather significant risk that he is the scumteam's deepwolf. (Plus, on an unrelated note, going into the wifom-hole, if FL's claim of his first draft being the first four names on the playerlist was in any way remotely close to the truth, if Creature is scum, it lends some credence to the idea that Spiffeh could also be scum, with FL having been unable to draft all four due to the other two being picked as town, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, I feel that going down this rabbit hole is a mistake so I basically am writing this off as possible, but not probable.) Overall I'd still rate him as town, but if we have three scum flipped and can't find the fourth after multiple town deaths, it's worth revisiting on him. He's certainly not a priority-sort today imo so even if it's possible he's scum, I kinda want to townbin him anyway for now, to revisit it down the road if needed.

Ircher I feel is probably town here. I admit lack of familiarity with him, and I realize that I do need to acknowledge he does have several bad takes and that effort does not equal town and that his style of posting does have a lot of information in it with the analysis comparatively lackluster, all things that make it possible he's scum, but I also feel that Ircher was not following an FL script, that Ircher's stances and refusal to play ball with Pooky came from an inherently town point of view and that the indignance behind it did radiate a type of townness I don't think Ircher, even with FL, could fake.

So in terms of the names up here with 1-2 scum in them, I'd rate their townness as:

Ircher > Spiffeh (this and above means "not interested in really sorting today") >>>>>> Bell

>

Dunnstral = Toogaloo (Bell either equal or higher than Toog/Dunn, not quite sure which).

[As we can see, she doesn't have a read on him due to lack of familiarity.]

Polar Bear Express*

who r u even trusting here

It feels like everyone who has played with Noraa is insisting that this is Noraa as town, most of them rather strongly so. And that even the other head has some townreads, too.

Who, with Noraa experience,

isn't

townreading Noraa at all?

I imagine there's some, but as far as I can tell, almost everyone is telling me the same thing, that this is Noraa as town. Some to locktown levels, some to town-but-dampened levels, some to town-but-needs-reassessment levels, but almost all saying town.

Am I wrong?

Murder I think has the most experience with noraa and is scumreading them.

I'll be honest, I didn't count MURDERCAT as part of the town because, see also: scumreading MURDERCAT.

How do oyu feel about his case on noraa?

I didn't even open the spoiler on it to so much as skim.

While we're at it, how do you feel about noraa's posting today?

Neutral with a side of town; nothing has struck me as scummy in it, but it's not bleeding town, but does loosely feel town.

[Funny little bit where Mastina observes that everyone with experience with Noraa townreads her -- but doesn't include Murdercat due to him being in her scum. I like that]

Okay read the case.

I believe that Noraa's tone this game is fake and over the top.

This is not something I have any way of judging.

...

SO.

For the case.

I can give no judgement on tone, but on the parts of the game that are actually things I can assess: this case feels very wrong, very narrow-minded, very manipulative, very specific, and not accurate at all.

Does that mean it's wrong? I'm not a Noraa guru, heck if I know.

But I can tell you as someone who doesn't know Noraa, that the case on her does look like it's not valid.

[Mastina takes the time to review Murdercatto's case on Polarbears here. I agree with the conclusion she reached that the case was off. I also came to the conclusion that Murdercat was more likely town for it because I felt it was a genuine case -- I see why he thought it was real. I dont think mastina has any comments for how it reflects on Murdercat's alignment, although she might have thought it was cherry-picked intentionally.]

pichu's case I read. I don't find it compelling, but I also don't find it wrong in the same way I did MURDERCAT's case on Polar Bears Express.

...

The rest of the case doesn't really resonate with me much at all, but overall?

Conclusion: lukewarm with an emphasis on 'warm'; Bell was among the slots I was townreading that I needed to reassess and judge if they are scum. The case doesn't hard-sell me on Bell being lockscum, but it does a fairly good job at showing the very real plausibility if not probability of Bell being scum by demonstrating the actions that're more likely to come from scum than town, a viewpoint I do find myself overall agreeing with, albeit with the caveat that I do feel the need to research before sheeping it wholly and unconditionally.

In other words:
Would vote.

I like my Creature vote more right now, but if I was seriously asked to genuinely join the Bell wagon, I probably would.

[Mastina will also review pichu's case on Bell. She found it plausible and worthy of a vote, but not as good as Creature.]

[So far, I would say it's very believable for mastina to reject Murdercat's case and give pichu's case a "plausible" as either alignment. I felt decently the same way. However as scum i think you'd do the same thing.. overall, though, i don't have any issues so far as I think it's pretty believable to vote Creature over Bell.]

DUN Dun dun dun dun dun Dun dun, DUN Dun dun dun dun Dun dun dun.

GUYS THIS MEANS THAT THE SCUM IS DUNNSTRAL
LETS GO GET HIM BOYZ

If MURDERCAT is in fact town?

Actually quite likely! Creature + Bell + Dunn + DEB would be an incredibly likely combo, with the other one being Creature + Bell + Toog + DEB (or Creature + Bell + Spiffeh + DEB but as mentioned I wanna table Spiffeh-scum thoughts until three scum are dead, ideally).

Although I remain unconvinced that MURDERCAT is town.

[Mastina has PoE'd out both Bell and DEB correctly here, with some suspicion on Spiffeh -- this is not terrible. She is saying all of this in the event Murderkitty is town, which she isn't convinced of yet, but whatever]

Uh, wouldn't I be happy with the game state here.

Uh, I'm not gunna engage with Pichu's case on me it's the same forest fire shit and I know exactly what I'd say and what he'd say and do in response to every cherry pick, wrong take, pointed out to him etc.

Hey so like.

Remember how there was a summation of "Noraa as scum does not react well to pressure but does as town", more or less?

Yeah, well.

I am beginning to think that applies better to Bell than it does to Noraa.

I remember Bell got some pressure in MBOS10--and reacted completely differently than Bell is reacting here, similarly under pressure.

There, he had a certain energy and smugness to him; here he's radiating defensiveness.

Soyeah.

Definitely am seeing Bell-scum here now!

[This is mastina's decision on Bell being likely scum. Before this point, she used wording like "If Bell is scum" -- now she's starting to believe. She does this just one hour after calling pichu's case plausible... so it seems she decided to scumread Bell through a reread of sorts. This is very significant, I think, because that means it is very likely something caused her to shift that read as she was reading through -- either it was Bell's defensiveness, or something that made her feel it was time to bus.]

[She had Bell as plausibly scum while reading pichu's case in 2963, and then she decided to call Bell scummy as a reaction to his defensive tone in 3139/3140. I'm going to read that stretch.]

[Yeah so it's basically Pichu, Ydrasse, Double, and Solstice beating Bell into the ground, and then Bell responding pretty poorly to it. Soyeah, he definitely looked like he was going down there. However i will note that Bell's reaction to pressure was indeed not great looking compared to what i've seen.]

You didn't push me. I spent upwards of 8 hours telling you to your face what the truth was and it didn't matter. Call it AtE or what not. But the facts are the facts and you saying you weren't voting me in that at the end of day is just massaging your own play to look better in hindsight as a form of ego protection.

(Ironically. Bell's posts in this stage of the game actually look almost exactly like Noraa's posts in that one Noraa scumgame everyone is talking about which I can't remember the name of off the top of my head. The one which MURDERCAT linked to. Noraa's posts there when defending herself, look like Bell's posts here when defending himself.)

Would like to hear update from Mastina on recent events but leaning town for now.
- Norwee

Considering I've pointed out reasons for Bell being scum that, to my knowledge, are unique to me and things not presented by others before me, it is now me who could use the advice of others in confirming if I am onto something in regards to Bell's defensiveness when under pressure.

(Which is to say I think it's a solid indicator that he's scum.)

I also have thoughts on others, but they're best saved for after a Bell flip if we are flipping Bell today.

I'm debating whether to vote Bell or not; I only have one vote and to me, both Bell and Creature are equally scum.

But overall, I think I do lean towards doing this:
VOTE: Bell.

[Here is the switch]

K, I'm detective.
N1 I investigated Toog who killed no one.
Good job everyone.
Good job.

This is, at the very least: a plausible claim with a plausible target.

I just happen to not believe Bell's town from it.

In my opinion, the claim is utterly dead null. It does nothing to make Bell more scum, but also does nothing to make Bell more town.

So where does that leave me?

Still voting Bell because I'm scumreading him anyway.

[Handwave of the claim]

Ok yeah Toogeloo might be scum

Possible, but Bell's still scum regardless. Toogeloo's a good candidate for scum especially if you think Dunn to be town, but I wouldn't say Toogeloo's pop-in here is lock-scum. Possible scum, definitely; surefire scum, nahhhh.

This wagon comp is bad, I don't like it. Unvote.

Toogeloo is literally the first vote on the wagon that could be scum.

It is otherwise a quite stellar wagon that is, very clearly, self-evidently, towndriven.

[Honestly I agree, the wagon composition was pristine, i dont know what Murderkitty was talking about. Some sympathy for suspecting Murdercat there.]

[I like Ircher's readslist lots]

As do I!

I feel like {Bell, Creature} as lockscum is a good start, with {DEB} as a highly likely third and then the fourth being within {MURDERCAT, Dunnstral, Toogeloo}. Two from the latter category if you want to sub DEB out. 6 names for 4 scum is a really good POE solve pool.

[Okay, she didn't have him as the bottom -- notice DEB was her next in line, not Murderkitty. I like that. I can more buy Murder being in that nullish slightly scum tier, maybe. I just thought the Bell interactions spewed town though]

guys one of these detective claims is fake
see if you can figure out which one

Hot take: both are.

But if only one were--yes, I'd begrudgingly admit that DEB's is more plausible than Bell's.

[Lul. This is the first and probably only occurrence i can think of where a player finds SvS to be the most likely option. And mastina goes back on it later when I think she could have gotten away with still pushing that without getting DEB killed. If I'm right, i think this progression makes mastina town.]

I'm not too sure about Toogeloo actually, but Alisae said they think they have been town so i'm going with their read on that for now until i get a better feel on them myself.
- Norwee

Toogeloo being town isn't impossible--
It'd require Bell as scum; it'd require Creature as scum; it'd require 2 of {DEB, MURDERCAT, Dunnstral} to be scum.

But it is something I am rather skeptical of overall.

Granted.

I really don't see why MURDERCAT is getting townread. There is precisely one reason I can think of for MURDERCAT to be town, and unless that one reason is the reason others are townreading him, I legit don't get why people think he is town.

DEB I think is scum with Bell, even if that is a stance I realize is a bit of a hard sell to make.

So with Bell as scum and Creature as scum, if my gut-townread on Dunn is right, there is in fact the chance Toogeloo is town, if both DEB and MURDERCAT are scum.

But that's literally the only way I see Toogeloo as town.

[..did Mastina realize Murdercat was a mason? I forgot about this. I think she is implying that here]

I still don't really get what the fascination with creature is though.

It's called scumhunting; Creature is scum so it's my job to hunt him and pressure him even when voting elsewhere due to hunting elsewhere because there's four scum rather than just one.

You should try it some time*.

(*I am aware MURDERCAT is consistently casing Polar Bear Express as scum. Aside from me disagreeing with the core points of his case, there's also the fact that MURDERCAT doesn't seem to be doing anything aside from the Polar Bear Express case, and my burn here is relating to that lack of diversity in reads and stances backed by reasons. By which, I mean, as far as I can tell, MURDERCAT doesn't have anything resembling a four-man guess for a scumteam. He's pressuring primarily one slot, for reasons that I feel are wrong. Rather than applying pressure in multiple areas with multiple reads.)

[I can buy thinking that Murderkitty is hyper-tunneled and therefore not really accomplishing much, sure.]

What reads do you have if Creature is town?

IF Creature were town (he's not), then I'd lockscum

both

Bell and DEB and then look heavily into Toogeloo and MURDERCAT in particular, with a possible side of Dunnstral.

The same goes for IF Bell's town (he's not); I'd lockscum Creature and DEB while looking heavily into Toogeloo and MURDERCAT (albeit less Dunnstral in this one).

I genuinely feel like there is a POE pool of six that, very likely, contains all four scum, with a very high chance:

{Dunnstral, Toogeloo, MURDERCAT, Dr Easy Bake, Bell, Creature}.

Individually, Dunnstral looks the towniest of them.

Individually, Creature looks the scummiest of them.
Individually, Bell looks the second-scummiest of them.
Individually, DEB is DEB and someone that FL could always count on as scum due to DEB and FL being intimately familiar with one another so DEB as town represents a threat to FL whereas DEB as scum is his greatest asset and off of DEB's contributions so far it looks a lot more like he's FL's asset than he is a threat to FL so I think there's a high chance he's scum.

Individually, MURDERCAT's reads and stances the whole game have looked like scum to me and there's literally only one scenario that would make me think otherwise. He's a lower-priority sort for me, however, specifically because given more time, that one scenario will either become debunked or confirmed. If it is debunked, then he's a high priority for being eliminated as an incredibly likely scum candidate; if it is confirmed, then he is someone we'll never eliminate due to him being town. I personally feel that the one scenario for him being town isn't the most likely, but time will tell there.

Individually, Toogeloo's highly null. He's not someone I'm scumreading, but overall, his stances and takes are no longer resonating with me as being town. He's not a high-priority sort because there's four names that I feel are more likely scum than him, with one of them being a low-priority sort, but if MURDERCAT's one scenario of being town is true, then Toogeloo is very highly likely to be scum.

Individually, I do loosely feel like Dunnstral is town, weakly so here, but that is the read that this day phase has been most in flux, and if too many of the names above are town, then by necessity he would need to be scum. But I do genuinely feel that the only way he is scum is if literally two of the above names flip town--which makes him a lower-priority sort, as we should flip names above him before considering eliminating him.

One name flipping town from the above doesn't change this solve.
Two names flipping town from the above still doesn't change the solve.
It'd literally take three of the above names being definitively town for me to consider a different solve right now because I am that confident that these six names contain the solve, pretty conclusively so.

[Mastina does not catch the two scum outside of Bell/DEB here, no, but also no one in the game has. So whatever. The addition of Murdercat into her PoE is was I was worried about, but after reading through, it does not bother me so much.]

do you see anything that is shown in the setup twice cuz I sure as hell don't!

Oh they exist, I literally reviewed a double-doc game, but they're notably rare. I've seen them before. Double doctors beyond the one I reviewed; double trackers happened at least once; double millers has definitely happened; double neighborhoods (as in, two separate neighborhoods of two where all four were town); etc. They exist, they're just rare.

I've normally not been really quoting Ircher posts with points unless I felt a need to argue with them, but I feel particularly compelled to make a positive reaffirmation here, in that:

This feels very townie. Not sure if it will matter though.

I disagree. Bell's actions post-claim do not seem to be in accordance with what Bell wrote. As they say, "actions speak louder than words." If Bell puts those words in action, maybe I will reconsider.

I agree with this wholeheartedly.
Bell has not put those words into action thusfar.

Oksy, here is the actual CC post from DEB. The fact that DEB is giving the benefit of the doubt here is very +town equity for their slot. Scum!DEB benefits very little from such a move (as he's a goner regardless.)

I do have to disagree with this, though. If you assume that Bell is scum and look at DEB giving the benefit of the doubt, it increases the odds that DEB is scum with the whole thing being scum theater where both claims come from scum. I'd therefore say that DEB giving the benefit of the doubt is, overall, null, where you can see the action as town or scum in equal amounts.

It's probably town-equity if Bell is town since town willing to consider the original claim as town is more likely than scum counterclaiming a doomed slot only to then give benefit of the doubt, but if Bell is scum I give no such town equity to DEB.

So my thought on this is that it's probably a classic FL scum-scum claim where both players claiming the role are scum and neither is town.

I think the one hole is that the other has to explain why they are still alive. That doesn't sound like an easy task to me.

I don't see why not.

If only one scum makes the nightkill the entire game, there's only one guilty and a bunch of innocents/false innocents.

A detective not getting a guilty poses no threat to the scum.

And if both detective claims are scum, then they have no reason to claim a guilty, so they can claim innocent results the entire game.

Plus, a detective's innocent isn't a game-long clear, so stacking innocents does no good. If the detective got innocents on eight players before the detective died, those eight innocents don't become conftown. No detective innocent is actually an innocent, not unless all four scum have made a kill (something that we, the town, have no way of knowing).

And you were keeping your reads close earlier as if you had something special, then came out with the most generic copy pasted reads possible

A reasonably good point.

Can u post a reads list Bell?

What do you think I'm doing rn?

Actions speak louder than words.

Yes, actions speak louder than words.
You're saying you're making a readslist; you're not showing a readslist.

[This is mastina arguing against Ircher on the odds of DEB being scum, probably going to look at this more when I read Ircher.]

[Whatever im done reviewing D2 for Mastina now]

Spoiler: Ircher on Murder and Bell

VOTE: MURDERCAT

[So at the start of D2, Ircher votes for Murder, apparently his strongest SR. This comes a bit after Bell's initial scumread + vote on Murder happens, however, Ircher had a preexisting scumread. I tried to kinda get an idea of why he disliked Murderkitty so much, and i didnt really come up with too much -- he thinks Murderkitty is an active lurker who mostly lacks real content.]

[I did find something interesting, though]

There's like zero reason for you not to share your reads. Stuff like this make me think you are scum, Murder.

People trying to get info out of me without engaging me are scummy

^

This kinda makes me think Bell and MURDERCAT are linked. I'm pretty sure this isn't the first nor the last time that Bell has implicitly defended MURDERCAT like this. (Defend is perhaps not he best word to use here.)

[Ircher thinks Bell and Murder might be together because of this pattern. i wonder if he ever brings this up again]

Page 97 --> About half of it is fluff. pichu and Battle Mage post some content but it's not super significant.

reads?
reads...
Bell is still kinda scummy
Solstice is unsure - i go back and forth
murdercat kinda sus
double is trouble
Creature is very slightly scummy
that sums up my feelings of scum equity in the playerlist

I like and agree with most of these reads. I don't really see what some others are seeing in Double; I've seen them engage in some confirmation bias, but they seem overall townie. I think when the slot disengaged from one of their tunnels was also a point towards town them. (Can't remember which slot was being tunneled though.)

Also like, you know I'm town right? And what I'm doing? Because I want you to trust me on this Noraa case, I don't want it turned around on me.

This feels super manipulative. I don't like it at all.

I am but Pooky's loyal soldier

Translation: I plan on doing nothing useful unless nudged to do so by the treestump.

Look at this progression.

BM is town
to
emphasis on BM is pr
to
slight shad
to
ask for reads
to
BM is scummier than Ircher(with no vote on BM)
to
BM, I think Noraa is scummier

This isn't entirely accurate depiction, but reading the quoted posts in the post above, it comes fairly close.

Noraa we talked about this you can't just quote my iso you have to give reasons why it's scummy

She did. She elaborated in her following post that your progression was scummy.

He's obviously not going to explain his read on you if he thinks it's going to be a distraction to the leading wagons.

(Referring to MURDERCAT.) This is very much a problem because we shouldn't be focusing on the top two wagons at the exclusion of the rest of the playerlist.

I am reading your posts and giving them about as much thought as I am giving FLs.

Please tell me how this embodies a town mindset. In particular, you admit here that you've already decided that Noraa is scum, and thus, there is no need to engage with them. The thing is that unlike Flavor Leaf, you

don't know definitively

the alignment of Polar Bear Express. What if your read is incorrect? Don't you want a chance to correct yourself if it turns out your read is actually wrong? Ignoring her posts is not going to offer that opportunity.

[So this is a review of older pages that Ircher is doing as Bell and Murder are just starting to go at it. it seems very much like Murder was the initial player that Ircher was going to try and push for today -- i dont think it is likely he's piggybacking off of Bell, because judging from his D1, this was going to happen regardless. It seems they just happen to coincide.]

A good amount of time passed since Noraa's post about Gloria and Gloria's first post. I think I can see where you are coming from, but I think even if you aren't super invested, you will probably care a lot about how your own slot is perceived by others.

This post by MURDERCAT though is probably the first town-indicative post I've seen from the slot. It's very possible I've been tunneling his slot a bit this game.

At the bottom of page 110. Oh hey, I'm only 5 pages behind now... With any luck, I'll be caught up by midnight.

[Ircher thinks that Murderkitty's case on Polarbears is his first town-indictative one. Yay!]

Tbf, yes. He's been super townie otherwise and familiar with me in a way that I would expect from him as town.
I'm not going to ignore this cliff drive as being something other than it is tho.

Yeah, this seems really bad faith to me and not how someone with a town mindset would approach this.

For god's sake man, the BM mislynch could've been pretty preventable had I had the time to prevent it.

This post is kinda a red flag for me. Wasn't Creature on the wagon? If he felt so strongly, he probably had enough time to at least unvote. (Granted, he probably had other obligations, but my point remains.) Otherwise, it's quite easy to have this kind of take AFTER you see Battle Mage flip town.

[Overall I lean that this is a genuine case (although I am not certain yet), but I also do not think this is enough to say Noraabear is scum.]

This sums up my thoughts on that case very well actually. I'm starting to like the Solstice slot more.

[Ircher seems to be feeling the Murdercatto town vibes here, as it even makes him reverse his scumlean on my slot cause we agreed on it.]

VOTE: Bell

I want to give Murder a chance in case I'm wrong after seeing that case Murder made.

Current solve is probably something like Bell + Creature + Dr Easy Bake? + Ydrasse?

Starting to think pichu is possibly town as well.

[Here's the switch. Let's check the area around it..]

[Yo this was early as fuck, he's actually the first Bell vote what the shit? This was back when we were like still discussing Bell vs. Murder in its very early stages. No Pichu case or anything like that. That was earlier than i remember. Alright]

And I'm 14 pages behind again... Lovely.

2881 by Solstice: Tweet's evaluation of MURDERCAT's progression on Noraa --> I definitely agree here that Bell's characterization of MURDERCAT's progression on the slot wasn't very accurate. I also agree that the case seems rather genuine hence why I am willing to give MURDERCAT a chance to let me reevaluate him.

[So basically if I'm to believe this, we were mindmelding the whole time apparently. Why the heck was murder so low on Ircher's lists? Ah, I suppose "giving him another chance" isn't really the same as a townread. Still, we did see that crucial bit the same]

@Ircher, why are you scum reading me?

(Note: I searched my username to find this post.) Main reason is that I think you were very under the radar Day 1. That might not seem that big of a deal, but I think it holds weight as it suggests you aren't really looking for scum; rather, you are going through the motions. pichu has stated many of the other reasons already and in a more eloquent way than I likely would have. That's the gist of it anyway.

Can you go in more detail about Spiffeh? I think he has posted some townie things/good takes, vut I don't think he's done anything that points strongly in favor of town!him.

[Pretty decent looking pair of posts now]

[So apparently there's a character limit. Okay then.]

[3732]

[I feel like there are a lot of things here that make me more sympathetic to a Murder scumread (as i mentioned with mastina), i think murdercat calling the wagon composition on Bell bad was really weird. This also meshes up perfectly with Ircher thinking the two are linked earlier.

[Yeah so there's a character limit apparently. You only need the tl;dr for this, which is that the Murdercatto suspicions by Ircher/Mastina did not look nearly as bad I remember them being. Some other highlights..]
[Ircher voted Bell way earlier than I thought -- he abandoned Murdercat to get the FIRST vote on Bell. He also had a suspicion that Murdercat/Bell were linked which he points out a couple times, so it makes sense he continues to include Murder]
[Mastina i think is just town for the progression on Bell v. DEB being SvS, i still think this.]

[In general i think my conclusion is that it wasn't as obvious to others that Murdercat was town and i see more of why.]

[Something I'm wondering now is, is Noraa starting to drown late game like I would expect her to do? I cannot remember the last substantial post she's made. At the same time though, I am still really surprised by Noraa's early game and Gloria's recent adamant posting if the slot is scum]

[At the moment I'm at a townread on mastina, leaning that way on Ircher but not convinced yet. Other two I haven't done much for as of yet. The easiest slot for me to buy as scum is Spiffeh, for sure]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[If we're going to come to an agreement that my slot is town, that's fantastic, because then we only need to identify one town out of Mastina/Ircher/Polarbears/Spiffeh in order to win. Otherwise it's two outta the five]

[Obviously thinking mastina at the moment but i won't count polarbears/spiffeh out until i've checked them first.]

@mastina: Can you link that recent scum game where you efforted once more?

Sure, it's this one here.

[Ooh shiny I'm reading this instead]

Spoiler: Stuff I find interesting

Yeah, I'm still absolutely not voting Nic, this play doesn't make any sense at all from a Scum NicCage perspective.

I agree that Nic is 100% cleared if the game is 7-2. If it is not, then he at least sincerely believes Dunnstral is scum. I personally feel that in a 4-5 game he's probably one of the most likely players to be a 3p, although as unlikely as it may be he could still be town even then. (Basically I feel like there's no situation in which he is groupscum. In 7-2 he is town; in 4-5 it's possible albeit improbable he is town, but in 4-5 he's probably some benevolent 3p whose information is akin to my faction from the large, down to being in a neighborhood with another player.)

They are playing very surface level scummy, and shows no reevaluation

People who believe this bullshit are in need of a reality check by the way.

There are eight slots in this game for me to develop a read on.

Of them?

My read has changed on four of them.

I have literally changed my read on

half the players in the game

.
And Dunnstral is making the accusation that my reads haven't changed.

My read on NicCage has very very obviously evolved with time and new information.
My read on SKYEscrapers has changed no less than two times.
My read on DoubtingThomas has changed no less than two times.
And my read on TheGoldenParadox shifted into a solid locktown.

Do you want me to quote the posts showing these transitions in reads?
Because Dunnstral's pretty clearly full of shit here when saying I haven't reevaluated, when I have.

[This is the first parallel I noticed -- prior to this post, I would say you have not been the same as this game. You've bounced your vote around 4 times, i wouldnt say you've really gone all out with your reasoning (as you can see here where you explain you aren't) whereas with BM you felt very dialed in and solid. Even before BM you had like, an extremely rigid and confident readslist where you confirm towned people, strong towned people, and so on. Just a result of this setup's draft phase being unique? Maybe, but still, vibes are different and obviously they continue on as you scumread BM/Creature.]

[Oh. Back to why i quoted this. You're calling bullshit on someone's suspicions on you, just as you did with Creature. that's all]

We know from the setup that daytalk is enabled everywhere, and scum always share a PT anyway. So why can't Dunn and I just be lying about the neighborhood, and actually just be buddies?

Dude you literally paraphrased your PT--are you telling me you think that paraphrase is in any way even remotely realistically fakeable?

I don't mean, "yes, in theory, it is theoretically possible to fake a neighborhood pt conversation like this".

I mean in practice, do you think YOU, with your overall knowledge about you and Dunnstral, without an actual neighborhood PT, are capable of having faked this, thought it was a good idea, and gone through with it? To have pulled an elaborate ruse?

Because if a player said "Dunnstral and NicCage are clearly faking a PT conversation and are actually scumbuddies".

I'd be tempted to lynch that player on the spot for pushing an obvious paranoia theory that blatantly violates occam's razor. Because the simplest, and most likely, explanation, is that the neighborhood is real. schadd_ likes to have neighborhoods in his games, and he would never make a scum-scum neighborhood, therefore the claim of one is very very very likely to be true, especially with the play to back it up.

I originally thought that the Nic-Dunnstral interactions reeked of scum-scum since your inthread treatment of each other reeked of being forced and faked--but you being in a neighborhood with Dunnstral provides the perfect explanation for that and turns it into a situation that makes total sense as being from town/"town" (if you're 3p).

Ergo.

You're not scum.

You're either town, or a 3p, but if you're a 3p you're effectively town anyway and thus, still town, and thus, still not scum, and thus, not a good elimination today or ever.

And of course, the stated motive for the partial read change is based on a revelation of the new setup, not on reads.

Well obviously?
When I have made reads based off of no/wrong information, then when I get information that gives new context to the situation, including your neighborhood claim and the possibility of a 4-5 game, then that means the reads need to be updated to account for the new information.

And by the new information, Dunnstral remains scum but you become, instead of a scumbuddy with forced interactions with him, town (I feel like I should just say 'town' even though it'd be more accurate to say "town or benevolent 3p which is basically town") whose interactions with him were due to you having a neighborhood with him.

Like.
I was fucking right.
I said I thought your interactions with Dunnstral were faked and reeked of scum-scum.
They were, kinda sorta, 'faked'--not really, but they were due to you actually having a PT with Dunnstral.
But I had no way of knowing that your topic with Dunnstral wasn't a scum topic until you claimed it, did I?

Was it Mathblade himself who testified in MBOS 10 that masons look like scum? Someone did that game, at least, and a similar principle applies here for a neighborhood. Neighborhoods that're unclaimed can look like scumbuddies, until the neighborhood is revealed and that information puts to light that they are in fact, not scumbuddies, but neighbors who did have info about one another.

[Here's a very lengthy explanation of why NicCage is definitely town -- so a lot of effort being put somewhere that is correct (NicCage is indeed town for these reasons) as opposed to places where it isn't (you'd have to have put so much effort into faking every wrong SR you've had this game !!)]

[Looking thru it looks like you put an overwhelming amount of effort into .. casing why a townie is town, so far.]

I mean there are 4 and a bit pages in D2 and literally a quarter of the psts are from this hydra. Why is there whining about our activity levels?

Because most of those posts are from tris, not you, and there's also a quality issue with them--tris posts contain a much lower degree of content compared to...well, literally every player I can think of except Dunnstral and maybe DoubtingThomas.

Nvm I found it.

When it comes to this game, I legit think that it's a poe win--you're town; I'm town; Gypyx is town; TheGoldenParadox is town. That's 4/7 of the living players, which means that there's two scum in three names--SKYEscrapers, DoubtingThomas, and Dunnstral.

I mean, this is a false dichotomy and that's kind of unnerving. Youre setting up people to be limmed and basically have made a list that can carry potential mislims to a literal endgame state. Get one, "oops that was town the other two are confscum" at 5p, get another, leaving a 2:1 scum majority and win. If you are scum taking control this is a great strat but we should deeeeefinitely be wary of it.

I'll look at the other two slots, especially since I've forgotten most of my reads this game while I was away, but it feels really off.

Oh, and what about it feels off?

I know myself to be town and if necessary can case it pretty damn well because this is nowhere even remotely near my scumgame. (I'd prefer to scumhunt rather than defend myself, but if defending myself leads to the elimination of scum via poe not including me, then I'll do so.) Even if I couldn't, push come to shove, my role is 100% never a scum role (and I never lie about my role so it is guaranteed to be 100% a realclaim and is also a role that, to some extent, when I claim I will have a player able to verify at least one part of my roleclaim), so I am basically at the point of "any player who knows me and yet is fingering me as suspect, is themselves automatically suspect for it". (There's a difference between a player thinking I could be scum out of paranoia, like TGP, and someone actively saying I am a likely scum candidate, like Ari and Dunn.)

Gypyx has seemed town to me the entire game long. The thinking of Akarin scumslipping, while clearly wrong, is not a scum thought process; the handling of the initial deadline panic was incredibly town, and overall the slot has radiated towniness the whole time, I didn't pay much attention to Gypyx's claim (in hindsight, given my role, I probably should've tried to verify it but Gypyx was not my N1 target), but it sounds pretty damn believable and probable as a town role, I've liked the trajectory behind the evolution of his reads and his thought process, and while he's holding onto an Akarin suspicion for longer than I feel he should, I can understand him still having that read (even if it is clearly wrong). This is particularly evident if you read his posts in iso; you can see how he gets from point a to point b rather easily within.

Gypyx, as it so happened, also happens to be a good example of what to do when busy and/or on v/la. Gypyx's activity did drop due to the v/la, but the content kept rolling in--in stark contrast to the SKYEscrapers hydra whose v/la bouts come with a notable lack thereof. And to borrow a phrase from TGP, Gypyx just

radiates

town energy.

Akarin has been a voice of reason and sanity the whole game long as well as a beacon of sanity. I've agreed with the vast majority of Akarin's reads and reasons, but critically, not literally all of them. Akarin has been showing clear gamesolving the entire time, trying to get the town on the same page, providing solid reasoning and trying to find the truth. Akarin is never pushing an agenda, Akarin isn't trying to destroy town pushes on scum (the closest to this being possible is possibly Akarin's reversal on Dunnstral but that's not a scum indicator unless Dunnstral is actually scum and even were Dunnstral scum I'd think it more likely that Akarin's town that was wrong).

TheGoldenParadox has had well-thought-out stances the entire game long and has been scumhunting from the getgo. They definitely didn't perform the nightkill last night, and they've been showing well-reasoned, solid stances from the getgo and with good logic backing them. While they've had less posts than most players, this is not alignment-indicative for them, because they ALWAYS have less posts than most players. Given the size of the game and its relative inactivity, their posting rate is quite fine, it's actually better than it'd be in a large. They've basically been doing the same thing Akarin has been doing...just over fewer posts.

I'm saving this section for last as it pertains to all three--while I lack experience with all three of theirs' scumgames, and in two cases, lack real exposure to their towngames, too...their play this game, all three slots, just radiate being town. And in TGP's case, perfectly match what I'd expect from their towngame.


So, Ari.
On what grounds am I wrong about the above?

Which of those townreads, with pretty damn strong backing, would you say is wrong?

[This is a really nice looking post! Although again your effort is being put into casing why your townbloc is right (one of which is your buddy interestingly enough). It just feels like a pretty big contrast to your strategy this game which would have to be lockscumming townies over and over and putting all of your confidence in the read. I really suspect that is something you'd be much more likely to do as town]

Could both SKYE / Mastina try to towncase themselves?

I can, the question is more do I need to? I'm not an elimination candidate today.

[So that's the second time you declined someone's request for you to effort on something]

[It doesn't seem like you ever really solidly tunnel a single player from what i can tell, not even Skye really]

[You effort a hell of a lot, yeah, but it seems like it's focusing on a lot of mechanical stuff, as well as formatting your effort posts as many different possibilities, like "THE SCENARIO AS I SEE IT MUST BE PLAYER A + PLAYER B OR PLAYER A + PLAYER C AND THIS OR THIS OR THIS OR THIS IS HAPPENING .......... AND THEREFORE X". it's actually dizzying to read but still doesn't *really* remind me of anything i recall happening this game.]

[Is Mastina willing to call three different town players confirmed 100% lockscum as mafia and then give lengthy cases for each of them? like does she have the scumrange to do so, I mean. it's impressive if so. i could not for the life of me find a good and recent mastina!scum game example.]

[In general i was looking for this stuff and that definitely didn't happen in that game from what i can tell]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[A bat can hope]

~Morning

[Solstice]

The more Mastina says this could be her scum game, the more I'm just believing its not :/
My TRs are Mastina and Solstice.
Gloria agrees with me for the most part on mastina but has some doubt about solstice I'm pretty sure.
My main thing with solstice is just the claim seems too weird to be from scum & the effort seems real not fake. Assuming DEB is a scum supersaint, I don't think scum ever claims supersaint enabler here.

-nornor

[What made you think DEB was the supersaint?]

~Morning

[Solstice]

VOTE: Dr Easy Bake
Doing this now, since Ircher unvoted and Toogeloo never really voted (per mod's way of handling votes), so this is back to

L-2

.

VOTE: Doctor Easy Bake

E-1

VOTE: The Original D (myself)

I'm really surprised no one is seeing what I'm seeing here

[That was a serious "

why

" from Polarbears, sure]

[Would be kinda surprised if they were instructed to put Dr Easy to X-1 (or decided to put him to X-1 for that reason), and then they decide to naked vote it , and then Dr Easy decided to self hammer literally 8 minutes later. So i am leaning a bit that it wasn't intentional. I don't know, perhaps it was important Dr Easy self hammered quick -- but like, Toog wasn't gonna be online, were they?]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Scum have some form of roleblocker--presumably, having blocked Ydrasse both N2 and N3. So at least 2x if not more.

Yes, but it is possible that Ydrasse holstered N2. Ydrasse did explicitly say they targeted DEB N3, but Ydrasse made no remark about their target N2. I recall that the pool of people to vig back then wasn't exactly a good pool for the time. (Granted, some of us had the masons in their scum reads, so it makes sense certain people weren't in the pool. Nonetheless, we didn't know that at the time.)

Three masons, one vig, one investigative loosely at the level of a cop, and one or two roles that give info but are otherwise worthless. (Informed, Supersaint Enabler.)

You forgot the roaming doctor. 3x masons can also be a pretty powerful combo. I still agree with the overall sentiment that even with the doctor, the odds are favorable Solstice's role is town here.

Yes, that’s at least part of why I was reluctant to vote Dunn, I think Tweetie is playing differently here than she did in Royalty, so Solstice is still my strongest tr.

[to be fair, I had a lot of shit going on during Royalty including finals, here I'm on winter break. now im not going to argue that i'm similar, but im curious for your take on what makes me seem different about me here]

[You mentioned that i misrepped you in Royalty and not here, but i guess i don't really get how that is an argument for me being town. Especially considering all I remember doing to you in Royalty was just hard townreading and thats it.]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Oh also, Gloria, do you have any completed scumgames yet? I was never able to find any but clearly i am incompetent at doing so, as there was a completed mastina scumgame I missed]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Gloria's list of threads is way smaller than I remember it being. Did I mix her up with someone else..? Anyway she doesn't have any scum games yet, lol]

Merry Christmas!!!!

Gloria and I don't really agree on much besides DEB!scum.
We've agreed that she'll be the one providing reads for now and I'll just be on the lookout and voice my opinions to her. By request, this thread can also get them.

-nornor

ahhhhhh shittttt

[What was your reasoning for having Noraa lay low -- if it's game related anyway?]

Seriously? Deb has barely been around all game and you don't think it was coordinated when they post within 10 minutes of each other during the holidays in the middle of the night?

[WHY WOULD THEY DO THAT IT DOES NOTHING TO HELP THEM]

[I don't even know why I'm asking that question anymore considering the SvS detective claims]

[Okay, i did actually establish earlier that it was good for DEB to self-hammer (from scum's PoV of Ydrasse not shooting). So they did have motivation. But oh my fucking god lol, there is absolutely no reason to make it look that blatant]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[I concur with Ircher though that it is very conceivable for mastina to think that vote was low-risk. I did NOT expect that to happen at all, i didn't think we were gonna place Dr Easy to X-1 until Toog was around, since like, that's the precedent we had set with the X-2. I was flabbergasted that the day got cut off like that]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Oh okay I think I get it now. I think it possibly either points to whomever’s scum either attempting to make us look bad or not even thinking about that. I think regardless, DEB self-hammer softclears us based off of everything I’m familiar with wrt FL’s past scumgames, so rn, I’m leaning to the latter. I’m really shocked why DEB does this with Toog town though. That still doesn’t make any sense to me.

[Tl;dr -- if scum believes that Ydrasse can't shoot last night, then town is robbed of a miselimination. He did not save Toog, he was attempting to screw us by making us kill Toog for him.]

[I mean, attempting to make you look bad, I guess. It's very lucky on DEB's part, but yeah, if you're town, sure. Softclear is a big stretch because it would be much, much easier for that scenario to occur if you are scum. It is something scum wanted to happen, and that made it happen.]

[Solstice]

VOTE: Doctor Easy Bake

E-1

See my vote people. Pay very close attention to the “E-1” part of it. Why does scum!us make it a point of putting DEB at E-1, make it a point of specifically pointing that out, if we we’re buddies with DEB here? It’s not exactly rocket science.

[..huh? You realize that Dr Easy doesn't care if you put an E-1 warning on the vote. What does an E-1 warning have to do with your alignment?]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Polarbears totally missing why they're scummy is giving me flashbacks to DEB not realizing. I don't even know if that makes them scummy, but I'm not going to call it towny like i did last time]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[to be fair, I had a lot of shit going on during Royalty including finals, here I'm on winter break. now im not going to argue that i'm similar, but im curious for your take on what makes me seem different about me here]

[You mentioned that i misrepped you in Royalty and not here, but i guess i don't really get how that is an argument for me being town. Especially considering all I remember doing to you in Royalty was just hard townreading and thats it.]

~Morning

No that definitely isn’t true, you totally misrepped me wrt to TGP. You wrongly shaded me by falsely suggesting I was pushing him when scum knew I was trying to launch Dunn > TGP, so I really don’t understand why you’re disagreeing with me about this. That made me think something was really off about you in that game.

[Def unintentional then, as i had no plans of ever shading you that game. Unless that occured maybe really early D1 and I hadn't decided yet or something. I wrote you and I believe 1 other player as never eliminateable.]

[So needless to say -- that's not going to help you with my alignment. i suppose i do find it believable that you'd use that as reasoning for a TR, though. Is that the only one?]

[pedit: nite Ircher]

~Morning

[Solstice]

People still giving Noraa a pass when a mason with the most experience with her is calling her scum is mind numbin please explain scum Bell's reaction to me calling her scum if Noraa is town

[I don't really think it's more likely for scum to hard WK their partner than not, tbh I'd find it less likely and instead more likely a TMI townread on town]

[Not too much of a point in debating this atm though since I'm at least leaning Spiffeh/Polarbear with chance of Spiffeh/Ircher]

Seriously? Deb has barely been around all game and you don't think it was coordinated when they post within 10 minutes of each other during the holidays in the middle of the night?

Seriously, this is a bad take but if you like. I can link a game for you where RadiantCowbells wrongly scumread town!Gamma after scum!Formerfish immediately self-hammered minutes later. If anything it’s a very clear anti-associative.

[I think it should be probably be disregarded, but I don't really see how it boosts your town equity. I can totally see FL saying "Make it obvious as shit so you can argue it's too obvious" or i can see it just being Dr Easy taking his own initiative with that reasoning as well.]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Well I suppose it wouldn’t be smart to totally rule out the possibility of you pocketing us, if so great job in that case. But I just think like Dunn, you’re playing differently here.

Well for one thing, you were MIA for a lot of that game but perhaps that’s just NAI?

[At a certain point in Royalty I knew I was going to die, so it was worthwhile for me to shut the fuck up. That, and the takes I was forced to have (Defend Gypyx, Defend Dunn, Push TGP, Push Hopkirk) were so blatantly against my early play that it would be a comically bad progression as soon as I opened my mouth. so i waited as long as i could to do that.]

[Also, had a lot of exams during that game. So basically yeah you're right it's NAI]

[to tell you the truth, high effort is not towny for me either, anyway -- what's towny about me this game is how easy I find it to make content, which isn't super different from being perceived as high effort, I guess ?? Essentially, I don't care about giving my stances on things over and over again all day long because i know everything i think is by definition coming from a town place so if anyone scumreads it, that is not my bad.]

[whereas when i'm scum i live in constant fear of slipping up somewhere and i usually will shut down my high posting facade at some point]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Wow seriously? How familiar are you with FL’s scum games? I can link those games as well. It’s extremely obvious to me that it’s a anti-associative no matter how you’re looking at it but you pursuing this when you just got through saying it makes no sense is not making a whole lot of sense to me.

[You were there when FL (presumably) had Dr Easy crumb detective comically late so he could CC the other scummate who he also had claim detective, right?]

[He's already done the "No that's too obviously bad" thing once, I don't really see why he wouldnt do it again.]

[You're interpreting this as an inconsistency from me (?) But all im saying is that it's not towny. I disagree with Murder that you're lockscum for it. But I also fail to see how that spews you as town at all, because it definitely doesn't]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[I know that Dr Easy would have self-hammered immediately after your vote to "frame" you, for sure. But that in no way townclears you because scum can do it based off that same reasoning.]

[Murder makes a fair enough point that it is a really coincidental scenario. Like the odds of you and Dr Easy being on at the same time in that moment at like 4 am during the holidays probably weren't super high. However Ircher also makes a good point that Dr Easy would be more aware of the game than he let on through active lurking, especially at X-1.]

[So either:]
[Dr Easy got lucky and was online mere minutes after you put him to X-1, so he gets to self hammer. or..]
[You planned it, there was no luck involved, so you're playing it off as too obvious]

[Surely you can tell why I'm not giving towncredit for it? It's just a WIFOM game, you can't say FL would or wouldn't do that cause there's always the argument that he... would or wouldn't do it.]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Something interesting to note if Polarbears are scum, that means both Bell and Spiffeh hard town-locked their partner and in Bell's case, made his play revolve around that read. I think both of them put Polarbears as their strongest TR overall.]

[Spiffeh I already reviewed a bunch yesterday.. i'm just skimming across his ISO at this point. It is almost hard to believe he has defended Bell and DEB and been on pretty much every wrong scumread except maybe BM. So unlucky... unless there isn't luck involved. I am still interested in what he has to say though, there is no player i would count out at this point considering Toog's flip]

I have read numerous FL games, so yeah I actually can and do say this and if you want to ignore the obvious and we lose, that’s on you then.

[The fate of the game is not decided by whether or not I read you correctly, as far as i can tell. i just need one townread correct out of 2 town in 4 players, it seems.]

[in any case though, I would prefer to hear about your reads on other slots rather than this WIFOM defense of your X-1 -- i dont think it will help me]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[I would be shocked if even Noraa thinks you're obvtown for that, to be honest. But that's not what's important to me -- what's important is that you think it is]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Spoiler:

These masons were literally my top three SRs. fml. also pichu

-nornor

I guess mastina? Maybe I'm wrong about Polar Bears?

Or you?

I am really at a loss

Literally every single read I have had has been wrong

Neutral Scum

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read or Diffident Read)

Toogeloo (-32%): They claimed VT in their first post, which has a higher likelihood of coming from town. I'm not really a fan of their stance to the Bell wagon, and I don't like their 3948 and 3951 as the statements made about mastina are strictly untrue/a huge stretch.

Creature (-50%): This slot was a solid null day 1 mainly because I was wary of jumping the gun so to speak. Creature is fairly active in this game, but he is also rather disengaged, and that tends to be scum indicative for him. 2785 looks really bad considering he didn't express any doubt before then. 2794 and 2842 are nonsensical takes that make me think Creature is pushing an agenda here. I think 2917 might be a comment from town!Creature, but at the same time, it's not really a comment that makes sense to me in the context of this game. Overall, the disengagement and bad/nonsensical takes Day 2 are making me lean towards scum here. The fact he was the counterwagon to flipped scum Bell does reduce his scum equity some.

MURDERCAT (-55%): I still kinda think this slot is wandering aimlessly without a sense of direction or purpose. I'm not really a fan of how he approached the Bell wagon especially in posts like 3910 and 4220. Including mastina in his solve in 3905 is rather worrying.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

<<Insert mastina lockscumming BM, Creature, Toog here>>

[It feels significant that literally no one had any clue who the scum in our current group is. Like, so scum would have no qualms with staying amongst the crowd of incorrect reads. Is this making me read someone wrong though?]

Solve rn is probably Toogeloo + 1 of {Spiffeh, Dunnstral} + 1 of {Ydrasse, Dr Easy Bake}.

[Oh yeah, Ircher's reads were before the mason's claimed -- after he adjusted, he actually came *sort of* close here.]

[I still think mastina has the towniest appearing wrong reads. it is just really surprising to me if she pulled off all of those cases, especially the BM tunnel D1. It's not like the game she linked, either.]

[Ircher is still believable either way.. I reviewed his posts on Murder and they do make me more sympathetic to the Murdercat read -- but not as much as I felt with mastina. Having Toog/Creature/Murder at the bottom was pretty safe and he doesnt do anything that i think is impossible for scum!him like i feel with mastina.]

[Polarbears is a lot of trouble for me. Early, very hard townread there -- felt good about that one. Noraa is kinda fading out which sucks, but Gloria is still doing the things i always perceived as a towntell for her. I suppose this is the only place i haven't really dove into for interactions, but Spiffeh/Bell's interactions with them are kinda surprising if all are scum]

[Spiffeh has been getting really really unlucky with his reads, and there are some bits that feel town like the way he reacted to the Bell vs. DEB claims. There isn't much more for me to really townread him off of though.]

[overall i'm only confident enough to say Mastina is my strongest town. that also lines up with how the mod probably drafted her for town after FL's first or second pick, which is something i forgot to mention that i'd thought of up til now. I could very well see it being Spiffeh/Ircher just cause i am easily swayed by Polarbears AtE and i really did believe in that townread. However, at this point in the game, dunno if that really cuts it anymore]

[I think out of the remaining pool of Spiffeh/Ircher/Polarbears, i could come up with the best reasons to townread Polarbears overall. Ill test though]

Spoiler: Spiffeh

1. Strange reading style where he gets every single conceivable read wrong, just about.
2. Reaction to DEB vs. Bell's claims where he mixed up the roles seemed genuine (Pichu agrees with me on this).
3. You could argue his blatant lack of reasoning for reads (such as Ydrasse/Dunn?/Toog) coupled with his survivalism ("No please don't shoot me ms. vig") is too scummy to be scum.

Spoiler: Ircher

1. I generally agree with his takes. For instance, at the moment, Ircher is advocating for mastina/Solstice being the strongest town -- and it feels to me that these are the town players. If Ircher is scum, he's going to have to flip flop on i believe both of these
2. Bussed Bell exceptionally early, granted he could not have known it'd kill Bell at the time.
3. Murdercat progression does not come out of nowhere like I thought it did (does this count as a reason for a townread or just as a reason to dissuade why i thought he was scummy?)
4. In general i think scum!Ircher is playing a hell of a game although it's hard to quantify with solid reasons why

Spoiler: Polarbears

1. Noraa seemingly out of scumrange early on
2. Literally every scum has been whiteknighting this slot for some reason. Honestly they're even better at towncasing them than i am
3. I think in general if i had to call out one of these three slot for being most likely outside of their scum range, it'd be this one -- so far I am more willing to believe Ircher and Spiffeh pull off the things ive found towny about them as scum
4. Gloria doing the thing where she's adamant how obvtown she is and also completely missing why we find her scummy
5. Review of Murdercatto's original case makes me feel like it's not valid (this is cheating i know)
6. Tbh, Gloria OMGUSing Ydrasse for very little lines up with what I have observed in the past -- additionally, pretty sure scum knew Ydrasse was vig for most of that sequence, and Gloria would have heard about that

[Tbh even though I think I was wrong for suspecting Ircher for his murdercat read, that doesn't make him town by default. He is still my #1 deepwolf and I think if I went with my heart right now I'd say it's Spiffeh/Ircher. I would kill Spiffeh then Ircher -- and if at any point I'm wrong and there's a green flip, then I'd accept I'm probably wrong and eliminate Polarbears. that is my thinking for tonight]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Do you think it's impossible Ircher can manage a performance like this as scum, mastina? maybe you are more familiar with him than I am]

Ircher and Solstice are both strongly gamesolving, and largely on the same page as me by and large, seeing the same things I am, analyzing the thread, trying to look at all the facts and info and coming to conclusions from it. Add in the mechanical reason for Solstice to be town, and I do feel like the scum are Spiffeh/PBE.

[like I agree with this, Ircher is much stronger than the other two today, yesterday, and overall by far. Even so, Im finding it hard to shake my early read of Noraa and read on Gloria. I do not have a direct reason for Ircher being scum -- as I reviewed, your and his Murdercat progressions do not bother me anymore.]

[It is certainly true that Polarbears come off like they're drowning a bit atm]

~Morning

[Solstice]

I honestly don’t know if I find it more disheartening or ironic that both you and Mastina keep ignoring the fact that I keep stressing I don’t want to be the game-losing misfade and am realistic to understand that if you people really assume that FL would be so boneheadedly stupid as the have DEB self-hammer mere minutes after I made it a specific point of putting DEB at E-fucking-1 and made a point of pointing that out and people seriously can’t see why that softclears me, than just kill me today. Why? Because if that doesn’t prove to you I can’t possibly be scum here, than clearly nothing short of our green flip will accomplish that, right? So, again, I really really don’t want to be the game-losing misfade, so let me just prove I’m town here in the only way that can’t possibly be ignored.

[What are you talking about? in the case of you being town, we win so long as Spiffeh is scum and whoever we spare in {Ircher/Mastina} is town. You cannot be the game losing elimination so long as Spiffeh is scum.]

[not a single person here thinks that clears you, maybe you think so because you know your own alignment, but no, it's not clearing. FL would totally do that. I have no idea why you think it's an impossible play for scum to do]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Hectic’s concerns about that would have obviously been alleviated by my increase in posting after Bell flip. so your case if anything - is a very clear case of why we’re obviously town here, despite of your inexplicable reasons for alleging the converse.

[Mastina basically said that Hectic didn't find you towny, and you've managed to flip that around into "Well if Hectic were here, he'd think I'm obvtown now, therefore, I'm obvtown"]

[is increased post frequency impossible for your scumrange?]

FACT: What part of my hard pushing you all to misfade us today to prove we’re town is going over people’s heads? If MS had a game that would be the equivalent of a dark comedy sketch, this would have to be it, if it weren’t for the fact that we might actually lose the game because people aren’t using their heads.

[Are you suggesting that asking to be eliminated makes you towny?]

I'll read the spoilers later. Am I drowning? I dunno but I'm not vibing this game that much rn.

[Why do you think that is?]

[Gloria's list of threads is way smaller than I remember it being. Did I mix her up with someone else..? Anyway she doesn't have any scum games yet, lol]

Merry Christmas!!!!

Gloria and I don't really agree on much besides DEB!scum.
We've agreed that she'll be the one providing reads for now and I'll just be on the lookout and voice my opinions to her. By request, this thread can also get them.

-nornor

ahhhhhh shittttt

[What was your reasoning for having Noraa lay low -- if it's game related anyway?]

Well cuz if I take over, I'm gonna end up calling everyone scum, people are gonna get mad, and then I get yeeted. Its like ... a phase or something.

[you cut back on posting out of fear you'd get eliminated? Did something in the game cause you to think that'd happen?]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Solstice if scum was warning the town about what amounts to the scum's greatest trump card. Furthermore, that scumsides the setup. A surprise supersaint with the town having no warning, when the town's only power beyond the three masons is a (somewhat gated) doc, a vig, and a weird investigative (which, functionally, acts a lot like a cop)?

I agree with this assessment.

-nornor

[nice]

I'm really surprised no one is seeing what I'm seeing here

Oh I guess I can see how that could be a coordinated 1-2-3-punch of all the remaining scum hammering a wagon.

After all, FL does like to infamously fuck with VCA and coordinate scumblocs in voting.

I don't really have much of a defense against that other than explaining my viewpoint that I thought an L-2 vote was genuinely safe to make and I thought was the optimal move, to keep DEB near the elimination mark but not at L-1 until we were ready, but I realize that does little to deter the thought of a scum-coordinated quickhammer given it IS a move FL would pull. (Tho I would say that if I had to guess, scumastina would be disinclined to follow through on FL's request for it, but I'm not sure enough to say so definitively since it's possible I would.)

I would ask tho that if you think it's true, to at least eliminate Polar Bear Express first before considering me.

I really dislike this

-nornor

[Why?]

Polar Bear Express is someone I initially scumread, so I definitely can see them as scum. Basically the only reason I was townreading them was trusting pichu's read there to be right. But on their own merits, I don't see their play as town.

I see Ircher's play as town through and through and struggle to see how he'd ever be scum;
I see Spiffeh's play as, in spite of having town moments, overall being scum;
I've seen Polar Bear Express's play as, largely scum, and while I did have some genuine reasons to townread them and do want to trust pichu's read there, overall I'd say their play fits more for final scum than Ircher's does.

Hectic is one of the few people that scum!me is extremely extremely afraid of. He caught me in every single scum game I had with him and modded death curse(he cheered for me in the scum pt and talked to me a lot after my buddies all flopped over and died). He's seen my town game close up. I've complained to him about my town games. He knows best what town!me looks like.

I haven't seen a SR from you all game. All you've done is say Im town bc of pichu.
I find this a convenient time to bring this up and really dislike this SR.
It feels really weak but I have yet to read the big wall so I'll read that rn.

-nornor

[No one in this final five scumread anyone inside of {PBE, Solstice, Mastina, Ircher} going into today as far as i know. i would say that calling a read suspicious simply by virtue of it popping up at this phase of the game is shaky at best]

~Morning

[Solstice]

I don't understand why you think flavor would actually just randomly pick people?

[that is genuinely what you got out of 5654?]

This was the last read he had before then.

And a lot of the townread pichu expressed on PBE seemed to originate from their willingness to vote Bell--when we know that FL planned for Bell to die that day. (That or DEB to die that day, but the scum definitely knew one of them was going to die D2 and it looks more likely to have been planned to be Bell.)

Hectic's entire paranoia was absence of gloria and that was it.
He knew I was town and he stood by it even til the end. As I've said Hectic has a shit ton of experience with me. I'd argue more than murder.

[Ah I see what you're saying now.]

[i am still more of the opinion that having Noraa drop out for you to take over is scummy, but I see why you think Hectic would townread it.]

~Morning

[Solstice]

For the record, I feel Noraa's town meta is something that scum can imitate without too much difficulty especially with the help of a good scum player (Flavor Leaf) and at least during the early game.

No.

Blatant AtE, and calling her narrative a fanfiction is very far from the truth.

Every post mastina has made on us being scum has been confbiased as hell. Im about to review her cases on Toog, BM, and Dunn to see if there is a pattern.

[I disagree, but perhaps you could show me why rather than tell me, so I'll wait and see]

[Also, if you're calling her case confirm biased, aren't you implying she's town? I'm confused which it is -- does it ping you as scummy, or does she seem confirm biased on it?]

[that is genuinely what you got out of 5654?]

not exactly but that post had a lot of "maybe flavor picked this one but then replaced this one"
"and then this one was replaced by this one"
"he had to choose a hydra"
and it was confusing. if u wanna break down that post in ur own words, I can give it a go again.

[I suppose i just found it surprising you interpreted it as "FL picking randomly". I don't necessarily think FL focused on the upper half of the playerlist or any WIFOM like that, but mastina thinking in terms of "Who would replace X?" was interesting to think about]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Why?]

its shady. Like it feels like "its fine if you think I'm scum but by this logic someone else is scummier"

-nornor

[To be fair, you come off as much worse than mastina from the quickhammer, so if we are to take it as genuine, you would be confirmed scum -- whereas mastina is still more of a "maybe"]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[Misty was curious who wanted DEB rather than Bell on D2, considering it'd have been pretty beneficial for scum to kill off their surprise Supersaint on that day + have Bell look better from it.]

[From my memory, nobody really prefered DEB up until Pooky had that theory about scum rolecopping Bell and in reality DEB was scum. So i went digging around that area]

Spoiler: The End of D2

[4305 - Pooky's theory for DEB!scum + Bell!town]
[4316 - Dunn decides to vote DEB to help Pooky]
[4321 - Spiffeh says he will vote DEB but only if Pooky removes him and Polarbears from the vig pool.]
[4326 - Spiffeh is super confused on DEB/Bell, says "can't we just kill them both somehow?"]
[4349 - Pichu thinks it'd be funny if DEB is scum too, but doesn't believe it]

[4369 - Gloria thinks DEB is possibly town, and thinks his slot is resolvable]
[4374 - Gloria finds Bell scummy, as he is not playing like he did in a town game of his]
[4376 - Gloria unvotes Bell as a result of Pooky's defense to give him a second chance]

[4396 - Murdercatto is now advocating for DEB first as well]

[4400 - mastina thinks both DEB/Bell are scum]

[4414 - Noraa believes that Bell is obvscum, 100% confirmed scum. However, she suggests that today we should get rid of Bell's buddies who are desperately trying to save him. She then claims Murder has singlehandedly started almost every Bell CW, and votes for him]
[4420 - In response to Solstice saying that isn't remotely true, Noraa says she did it because she was under the impression that Bell's wagon was dying]
[4429 - Noraa hops back on Bell as soon as I put him to X-2]

[4430 - While reviewing, Ircher comments that he doesn't buy Pooky's case for DEB being scum over Bell

[Something that we found interesting -- who out of the four of these players was willing to kill DEB over Bell? Spiffeh and Polarbears.]

- [Spiffeh was pretty detached from giving reads on the two of them -- after all, he didn't really fully understand the mechanics behind it, and he was the first to admit he was confused about it. When Pooky proposes we take out DEB first, Spiffeh says, "Sure! (but only if you remove Polar and I from the vig pool)".]

- [Polarbears does not explicitly join the DEB train as Dunn/Murder do, however, Gloria relents on Bell as a result of this defense of Bell by Pooky. She does, however, make sure it is clear that she still isn't seeing town!Bell, but she is willing to give him another chance due to Pooky.]

- [Ircher, while reviewing, doesn't see the scum motivation for scum!DEB to CC town!Bell, so he discards it. This is what I did at the time as well]

- [Mastina is currently feeling them both being scum, but definitely at least one. I don't think she directly acknowledges Pooky's case, but she continues to call out Bell for being scummy by avoiding making content and etc so it is clear who she prefers.]

[Coincidence? Possibly, I do somewhat doubt that scum were thinking "Oh shit here's our chance to get the Supersaint activated and save Bell!" -- However, they were certainly the only two players standing among us who left the possibility of Pooky swapping it to DEB open.]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[tangent on noraa ----]

[i also just wanna talk about Noraa's vote swap to Murder as well as what comes after. Now this post is bordering on insanity which we already covered when it was made, but I'll summarize her points:]

[A.) Bell is obvscum, there is no way he isn't scum and everyone who thinks otherwise is blatantly obstructing our ability to win. (Noraa is under the impression that) his wagon has been broken to pieces.]
[B.) Murdercatto is responsible for every CW to Bell. He is an incredibly obvious buddy to Bell.]
[C.) We never eliminate outside of Bell/Murder, there is a guaranteed at least 1 scum in there, maybe 2.]
[D.) I vote Murdercat. This puts Murder to 1 vote while Bell is at around 3.]

[Noraa expresses afterwards that she had lost all hope in the Bell wagon ever going through, as it was at E-1 for days and never hammered.]

[This is an absolutely crazy take and I forgot about it up until Misty and I reviewed this area.]

[A.) How Noraa was under the impression that Bell could never have been eliminated is totally beyond me. The only slot that had unvoted Bell is Gloria 2 pages back.]
[B.) How do you vote someone other than the confirmed scum in your eyes, who has about 3 votes. Murdercatto is not confirmed scum to Noraa nor Gloria and has 0 votes. Noraa thinks there is 1-2 scum between them, which conflicts with how she is scumreading Murder for WKing Bell (?)
[C.) I just got done saying I was about to hammer Bell 3 pages back. And again, not a single player unvotes Bell during this period except for Polarbears themself. It is confusing to me that someone chilling at X-1 for several days gives Noraa the impression they're "getting away".]

[So basically this proves Noraa wasn't paying attention at all or feigning that. She mentions afterwards that Gloria told her the Bell wagon fell apart, and that is why she reacted in this way. Maybe true -- however that doesn't excuse how it makes about zero sense to start a vanity wagon on Murdercat there if you think Bell has a couple votes and also think he's confirm scum]

[Was she was trying (along with Gloria's unvote on Bell to give him a second chance and Spiffeh's willingness to vote DEB) to make the switch off Bell to another wagon more possible? Idk, maybe. It's a wild post. i think there was very little chance of success that the Bell wagon fizzles --

but was she under the impression that there was?

Did she actually think the Bell wagon was dying, so that was her attempt to go off and do something vanity that it looks like she believes in? Which gives a greater chance for Pooky's plan going through. We definitely know that Gloria was open to it, at least.]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[C.) I just got done saying I was about to hammer Bell 3 pages back. And again, not a single player unvotes Bell during this period except for Polarbears themself. It is confusing to me that someone chilling at X-1 for several days gives Noraa the impression they're "getting away".]

Eh, I think it kind of makes sense, all things considered. If a player sits around E-1 all day, but no one gives intent to hammer, it's very possible will get distracted later in the day and go elsewhere. Having only one wagon was an indicator of stagnation, and when games stagnate, things can go awry. I don't think I'm doing a good job explaining my viewpoint here, but basically, Noraa's impression that Bell is "getting away" is a game state read based on the game's momentum, which was slowing down and not really progressing.

[If Noraa was frustrated that we were getting distracted and going elsewhere, then what is the purpose behind trying to get us to go elsewhere?]

So basically this proves Noraa wasn't paying attention at all or feigning that.

I actually don't find this particularly condemning.

[Yeah I dont know if that's explicitly scummy for her exactly but i think it is definitely true.]

however that doesn't excuse how it makes about zero sense to start a vanity wagon on Murdercat there if you think Bell has a couple votes and also think he's confirm scum

It might not make sense, but people are not (as a general rule) logical beings. They do irrational things based on an incorrect or unreasonable understanding of reality.

[I agree that it being illogical is not enough to consider it as scummy -- I had previously written it off entirely based on that reasoning. at the moment, I do see starting a random vanity wagon that Noraa seems to believe in (combined with Gloria giving Bell a second chance) as particularly convenient to scum that want to leave open the possibility that momentum sways to DEB. And during this time, Gloria and Noraa both stress that they still believe Bell is scum or at least scummy, which just makes it more odd]

[while they call him scummy, i would say more of their time is shading Toog/Murdercatto than it is Bell, though. Like Noraa is for certain that Bell is scum pretty much completely out of nowhere from what i can tell. I'm rambing now but i guess i would seriously expect Noraa to do more to push who she is certain is scum rather than try and go somewhere that she isn't sure is scum + seems to only think is scum because he's WKing the confirmed scum.]

[so random illogical play -- maybe, but a helpful one if Spiffeh/Polarbears being the only ones who opened the door to possibly eliminating DEB over than Bell wasn't just a coincidence.]

~Morning

[Solstice]

Can people stop writing wall after wall after wall?
I have to spend like a solid hour just reading some posts that imo could be summarized into nice short chunks.

-nornor

[To be honest, wall-style posting is easier for me to parse through than 500+ post ISOs. i will try to keep it shorter though]

~Morning

[Solstice]

1) I don't think my meta is easily manipulated and I still stand by this but this is a useless argument to begin with so I'm going to just leave it here.

2) I mean when someone is pulling day 1 vote counts to support a scum case on you ........ I would call that confbiased.

3) ....I might have the wrong definition of the word confbias then? I think of it as assuming someone is scum and then supporting it. This isn't a term that is AI??

4) well mastina based some of her case around flavor picking the first four on the list(which is ultimately the same thing as picking randomly)

[I don't understand your point regarding D1 votecounts. is there something about D1 that makes it invalid?]

[Confirm bias means you tend to prefer evidence that confirms what you already thought in the first place while ignoring evidence on the contrary. If Mastina is confirm biased on you being scum, as you claim, that would imply she is town. How can she be confirm biased if she is scum that knows you are town? Maybe you mean cherry-picking, which is more of a malicious tactic where she intentionally grabs examples that make you look scummy while ignoring ones that would prove otherwise. In any case i would be interested if you showed examples of her doing that (rather than just saying it's what she's doing)]

[Well no, that's not random, that's intentional, but i see what you mean. I'm not terribly interested in Flavour WIFOM anyway.]

~Morning

[Solstice]

[just waitin on Polarbears and Spiffeh to give their thoughtss]

~Morning