A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Saporerint]

Well, this process has been streamlined considerably since 2009.

-Iec

[Saporerint]

Hey guys, Iecerint here. I've made it through page 17. I'm going to go ahead and post what I have so far. I'm making notes and a town/scum list. I still haven't read half the thread, so things may change.

I haven't vetted this with Sapo, so I don't know how much she's read or if her views are different.

Short-version:

StefanB and Hyperion look scummiest. Lots of players look town. I think Feysal's slip was totally blown out of proportion, if that's the reason for his Choose wagon.

BBMolla looks town.

I wish players had clarified their interpretation of the Vote and Choices rather than jump into the Choose mechanic. Lots of early stuff is uninterpretable.

Feysal is correct in 39. EDIT: I'm surprised Tyrene (Tierce?) sticks to her statement here.

Feysal votes Starbuck for logical errors that I don't think make her any more likely to be scum (47). Scummy.

Dolorous Edd (hereafter, DE) reads scum into Feysal's logic, but not for the right reason. Feysal and DolorousEdd are not scum together.

She follows up on it, too.

Tyene contextualizes Dolorous's reading of Feysal's post isn a reasonable way (55).

It feels weird to see players continue RVS when major events have occurred (re: MoS, pappums rat). The latter does at least acknowledge new content, though.

From this point on I will interpret all Chooses as secondary votes, as that seems to be what the consensus has settled on.

RedFF's votes -- Starbuck and Feysal -- are strange because he's voting both sides of the conflict, which isn't where my mind has gone as I read. He cross-supplies DE's silly reasoning this time.

Starbuck's dense-ness in 71 almost has to be intentional. Starbuck strawmans her wagon in 75. Somehow I come away thinking she's likely town, though -- this is too much like asking for it to come from scum.

Tierce is town for the explanation to Starbuck (78). EDIT: Don't know why she gets upset with redFF when he does the exact same thing, though. O.o

Benmage is town; same page as me at 84.

Tierce is so town (91). I think DE is just as bad as RedFF, but that may be because I know that RedFF can be pretty abrasive, so I'm interpreting his tone as maybe more gentle than Tierce (i.e., who describes it as "chiding").

Regfan's entry post looks pretty good. Not sure why everyone has a town read on DE, though.

~~New Reading Set Starts Here~~

Staeg 104: Not sure why he has the town read on pappums.

Plessie 108: Contextualizes some players' town read on DE for me.

StefanB looks scummy, especially after Plessie just contextualized DE in the previous post. EDIT: Nevermind, looks like it's based on a misreading on his part. I think the Feysal wagon is bad, though, except for maybe Tierce. EDITEDIT: Really don't like that his response after being corrected by Regfan is a player-by-player analysis.

I like that Staeg is on the same page as me (117).

Lyanna posts lots of nothing AFAICT (123). Why are people voting Minimum? I don't see what the big deal is. EDIT: Then MoI asks for more Minimum votes (126).

I can already tell I'm not going to be thrilled with Shadow (135).

I'm happy MoI is on my side re: Feysal. I didn't know Mina was in this game... O.o EDIT: Looks like it's Minimum.

I'm surprised my predecessor has gotten so much attention. He's basically just random voted. Looking back, the Feysal wagon-joining was terrible, but it's still at a level I find surprising.

Plum's entry post is a good one, though I don't see why it's entailing the vote for Minimum. EDIT: MoS likes Plum.

Lyanna's explanation for Minimum suspicion (289) is again a lot of nothing (e.g., "every post has made me feel all twitchy").

Hyperion posts lots of nothing (298).

Feysal finally gives a scum case on Mina in 299 (i.e., "Mina is not obvtown").

Hyperion misrepresents MoI in 305, I think; IIRC, MoI said that construing Feysal's post as scummy was problematic-to-scummy.

MoS is not helpful and is not scumhunting (306). I don't know if this is par-for-the-course for Shadow, but this is not MoS.

Jal votes for DE, which...well, it makes sense to me, but it seems at odds with the normative PoV.

Disagree with SoO's reads, but at least his wall shows evidence of reading the thread critically (342).

Divided on Pandora's 342. Good critical reading, but RegFan isn't the target I would naturally gravitate to. I did find his Stefan read strange, too, though. Town overall.

I would guess that Shadow's play is par-for-the-course, but I feel like his mislynch wouldn't exactly be tragic. EDIT: I like his 402, though. StefanB revotes him right after it. -_-

Amrun replaces pappums. ^^

TOWN
Benmage
BBMolla
RegFan
Tierce (Tyene Sands)
Plessie
Staeg
Starbuck
RedFF
Plums Yo Mamma
Pandora

IDK
Shadow
Minimum
MoI
Feysal
DE
SnowStorm
hascow

SCUM
Lyanna
MoS
Hyperion
StefanB

[Saporerint]

I put BB in the town column on gut from his page 1 jokeclaim post and have stuck with it without any hiccups. Looking through his iso, the only other moment I remember standing out is when he posted constructively about SS's flavor-spec (195), and SS's response to that made me reinterpret SS's original flavor-spec more favorably.

I'll try to marathon the rest of it tonight. I'll be back home from visiting my grandparents tomorrow evening, so I can definitely finish it by then at the very latest.

- Iecerint

[Saporerint]

-Can you decipher this for me? I'm having trouble parsing why Stefan is your top suspect based on this summary, even with Stefan's ISO in a separate tab as a cross-reference.

StefanB looks scummy, especially after Plessie just contextualized DE in the previous post. EDIT: Nevermind, looks like it's based on a misreading on his part. I think the Feysal wagon is bad, though, except for maybe Tierce. EDITEDIT: Really don't like that his response after being corrected by Regfan is a player-by-player analysis.

For that bit, my recollection is that Plessie cleared up some uneasiness I had about DE (DolorousEdd), and StefanB voted DE in the very next post (and joined the Feysal-Choose wagon). Because I knew I had had doubts about DE and Plessie's post had just had a strong effect on me, I think it showed StefanB's lack of engagement with the thread. After that, someone (I think RegFan) made a post showing why StefanB's reasoning against DE was mistaken/misconstrued. StefanB unvoted at this point and accepted the other player's account, but then followed up with a vapid player-by-player analysis that starts in the same post where DolorousEdd was unvoted (EDIT: posts 111, 112, 115, and 116).

If StefanB was really thinking critically about DB as scum, I think he would have had some kind of a reflection on Plessie's post somewhere. The PBPA that followed RegFan's correction seemed ad hoc (scummy) rather than an indication of scumhunting. I also disliked his joining the Feysal wagon. The best defense of these things I've seen so far is someone's suggestion (Staeg?) that it results from language issues, but I don't think it's that simple.

-Why did you jump immediately into Stars Aligned III and only provide the detailed page-by-page catch-up afterwards?

I went back to look at SAIII, and I don't really see what you're talking about. My page-by-page stuff starts 4 hours after I replaced in in that game. IIRC, before starting all I did was skim my predecessor's iso.

-Have you discussed this game at all with saporovirus? Do you know if she has any reads up to now?

Not beyond our role PM, no. She's posted a little in our hydra QT, but it was about the Choose mechanic. I don't know how much further she's read or if she has any reads yet.

-Have you ever played with Tammy before?

No.

-Rate from 1-10 how emotional this game is making you. Any emotion--rage, excitement, fear.

On scales out of 9, arousal is about a 2 (low) and hedonic valence is about a 3 (negative). I'm tired and kind of making myself trudge on through so that I can have meaningful commentary before deadline. I'm also feel guilty about hiding on the computer instead of socializing with my grandparents, and I had promised myself I'd get some dissertation project preparations done this weekend. <_<

[Saporerint]

EBWOP: -Iecerint

[Saporerint]

@Saporerint:

Jal votes for DE, which...well, it makes sense to me, but it seems at odds with the normative PoV.

What do you mean by this?

That's my note on your first post. You voted for DE at a time when most were calling him town. It stuck out to me both for that reason and because earlier I had been surprised DE hadn't gotten more scrutiny.

- Iecerint

[Saporerint]

Been traveling from The Hills all day. Catchin' up.

-Sapo

[Saporerint]

Unvote

Unchoose

[Saporerint]

EBWOP: - Iec

[Saporerint]

I still don't understand why Feysal is the number one choose wagon, but I have only read through the first 15-20 pages thus far and I've seen about the Multiball debacle. I don't find that convincing by any means.

I skimmed Stefan's iso because Iec finds him scummy. I can buy his Dolorous Edd vote being due to a language issue making him misunderstand Edd's original post. On the other hand, I don't see him really posting anything but fluff. For example, calling for everyone to switch to a viable wagon because the deadline (at that time) was near. EVERYONE KNOWS. Not really talking about why he is cool with the big wagons at day's end, which is more or less null, but then later saying to Regfan that another wagon is not impossible but won't happen by magic. YES BUT WHAT DOES STEFAN THINK ABOUT ANOTHER WAGON? What's in Stefan's heart? He does ask a lot of questions, but he doesn't post any clear and definite reads that aren't sheeped off someone else, at least as far as I can tell. He's posting a lot but not really doing anything.

I would be happy with a Stefan vote if Iec would.

I will take a look at the bvoight wagon a bit later since it is now 4 in the AM.

[Saporerint]

EBWOP -Sap

[Saporerint]

So is the bvoigt wagon basically because of lurkiness lately?

DCL is scummy mainly because of early reactivity and later relative lack of scumhunting.

Iec and I are gonna have a talk this afternoon and figure out who we want to vote for/ choose.

-sap

[Saporerint]

Vote: StefanB

DCL is RedFF, I think, and I have a town read on RedFF, so I'd rather try getting a Stefan wagon going. I'll re-evaluate this when I've finished with the thread and have seen the slot's post-RedFF content.

[Saporerint]

I agree with Iec's Stefan vote, but RedFF didn't post enough to make him obtown in my book and DCL looks bad otherwise.

-sap

[Saporerint]

Please explain your town read on redFF.

I disagree with Tierce's evaluation that RedFF was "chiding" Starbuck for her logical flaws re: the Choose mechanic. I think he was constructive in that interaction, especially given his inflammatory playstyle. This isn't a mega-towntell, but it's enough that I don't think he's the best lynch.

RedFF is still in the game, so I have yet to encounter DCL content.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

We're about to start the drive home. I've gotten through page 25.

Short version

: Bvoight looks pretty town so far. The rest of the content is pretty much recapitulating existing reads. I can't believe MoS somehow missed the pages and pages about Feysal's multi-scum comment.

I think splitting wagons between the two mechanisms is inefficient and keeps wagons from taking off as they should. We can modulate things self-consciously near the hammer to make sure the right player gets Vote/Choose.

Vote: Stefan B (no change)

Choose: StefanB

NOTE SET 2 (starts on page 18)

Lyanna continues her standard approach, this time with a page giving us meta updates. She recapitulates some town reads I think I remember her already expressing.

Feysal has a strong townread on Lyanna (448).

Bvoight feels nice in 451 for discrediting the Feysal wagon (with the same Tyene exception as me) and having some other reads that match mine. Might've liked to see more comprehensive content since he came in so late, though.

DE claims weak meta scumread on Plessie (470). I've never played with Plessie before. EDIT: DE does the same thing on RegFan (500).

Bvoight's next post is good, too (510).

RegFan is Duplicity? I think I may've played with him before, after all (511).

MoI contextualizes MoS's early play (525).

Not sure why bvoight thinks Lyanna is town. Back in the present, DE said this becomes clear later or something (536).

StefanB is a newscaster in 537.

Doublevoting like MoS is doing in 550 is probably a better way to manage the Voting and Choosing. This is the most rational use of Choose if Choose is going to be a second lynch. Otherwise, wagons get split between Votes and Chooses, which keeps wagon momentum from really taking off.

I REALLLY wish DE's heads would sign their posts. Do both heads think Feysal is scum for pointing out that scum vigs can kill other-scum?

It's kind of crazy that MoS would somehow miss the Feysal-multiscum thing.

Shinori is HYPERION (586).

I can't speak for Salamance's reads, but I don't agree with them either, and I think bvoight's post about them is good.

I'll try to finish the other half once I'm home tonight.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

@Sapo: What are your thoughts on Feysal?

I'm ambivalent. I think his multi-scum point was not just not-scummy, but constructive/pro-town. I also think the opportunistic wagon is consistent with Feysal being town. But I'm not crazy about Feysal's reads or play. For example, I don't like his take on Starbuck, and I think SnowStorm has been leaning town if anything (and I've since seen on pp 48-50 that he's indeed town). Also, after FeysalChoose formed, Feysal's play seemed more reactionary than is typical for him.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

Finally back home. My goal is to hit page 40 before bed.

YO

ICEHydra

do me a favor with the deadline where it is and vote Shadow.

Based on what I've read so far, I'd be OK with joining ShadowWagon at deadline if necessary. I want to stick to Stefan for now because I'm more confident that he's scum. I haven't talked to Sapo about Shadow yet.

I'd also encourage everyone to unify their Votes and Chooses, definitely from D2 if not tonight (i.e., because changing 2 days before deadline will distort wagons, and we may not have time to fix all that). This will ensure that the top two scumpics are lynched.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

Oh. I had thought it was daily. Nevermind, then.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

40 pages done.

Short version:

I think Plum's case on bvoight was a misrepresentation (e.g., accusations of active-lurking). That said, later on I think bvoight stuck to his Sala read with more tenacity than I'd expect given, for example, DE linking Kingdom Hearts with intent to show SalaVI. DCL is overly defensive. Shiori/Hyperion seems more interested in reporting reads than in explaining them clearly. MoS seemed to get a little more into things toward the end of the day, and I read him a little more positively.

It's a little goofy that the lead wagons became bvoight, because he pushed SalaVI, and the Sala wagon itself. XD

NOTE SET 3 -- FROM PAGE 26

Shinori's entry post does nothing to change my read of Hyperion's slot (636).

MoS finally does something productive, votes Shinori. Don't remember whether he made any comments about Hyperion, though (638).

HYDRAS SIGN YOUR POSTS GOD (643). This felt all wrong until I realized it probably wasn't Mina.

Kortul used to be...Baelish, who never did anything.

I guess Tyene's "embarrassing slip" is referring to a deleted doublepost (659)?

I am so thrilled by Plessie's use of the term "proper subset" (677).

DCL is pretty null so far (705).

OK, now we're getting into bvoightWagon. It looks like Plum made a big, hyperbolic case (746). I can kinda see where she's coming from on the Starbuck question, but I that's a much more trivial point than she's construing it to be. I had the same WTF response when I read the Staeg post in question, and I think the basis of suspicion of our predecessor was fine, though I'm maybe disproportionately sensitive to weird things Salamance did as I read through. I find Plum's various "bvoight was just trying to put out content" claims disingenuous, though. Bvoight's posts have been clear and concise, unlike the unreadable walls put out by most of the active players in the game. I'm pretty null on greenknight as I readthrough (I know he's likely town from the Mason claim, though), so that mini-case doesn't bother me as much.

Minimum joins the greenknightCHOOSE wagon without elaboration/discussion/SIGNATURE. UGH.

Shinori suddenly has a scum read on bvoight "without going into detail." If Plum ever flips scum, I would look extra hard at Hyperion/Shinori (750).

Plessie's post responses to Shinori's listed reads (760). It shows why the bvoight read seemed to come out of nowhere to me -- Shinori (with lots of confusing pronouns) says that Starbuck (I think? even though Starbuck is a female)'s scumflip would make my predecessor town and bvoight scum.

Tierce likes Plum's post for some reason (770). I guess it did show some close, but I'm surprised she didn't find the direction off-putting. It looks like she only joins greenknightCHOOSE, though, so maybe that was the part she liked.

DE's meta-scum post on Jal is worth my revisiting, but probably not until tomorrow (794).

DCL's first real post has really funky reads (804). Shadow and MoI are town, Benmage and Tierce are suspicious, Feysal is scum for having a "neutral playstyle" (???). It's hard to evaluate it because we only get little mini-explanations of the reasons. He sheeps DE on Jal meta-scum.

Is this mockingjaye's first post (EDIT: 2nd)? It looks like she was near the hurricane....It looks pretty null to me, I guess. It's not clear why Shinori gets on the scumlist (EDIT: Hyperion got a big section before), but I suppose it doesn't bother me much.

I'm guessing the crazy Lyanna-BB back-and-forth is what makes Lyanna town (863ish)? I'm not convinced it says anything about her alignment yet.

OK, 876 reads town, though.

RegFan disputes DE's meta scumtell on Jal (877).

DCL is overdefensive (881). EDIT: Tierce picks up on it (882).

Don't think DE responds to RegFan's meta scumtell dispute...

Feysal's inactivity is getting really noticeable.. O.o

Hmm. Bvoight's 957 is the first one that makes me feel a little shaky. After everyone has pointed out how Sala was a VI (e.g., DE's direct link to Kingdom Hearts), I might have expected a little reflection from Bvoight here. I also don't like his take on DCL's catch-up post, which I thought had REALLY bizarre reads. It looks like he dislikes DCL's subsequent posts, though.

SnowStorm claims Mason (972).

MoS has shown flashes of towniness toward the latter part of the 40 page readthrough.

I like Feysal's comeback post (991), but I'd prefer more scumread information. All we really get is Shinori and DE.

I'm going to go ahead and hammer out the last 10 pages, make an updated list, and go to bed.

@ Benmage -- I'll consult with Sapo, and we'll make a decision. I think offering to replace out is pretty null, though IIRC Stefan wasn't under much scrutiny back then, which does make it hinge town a little IMO. Shadow had a little burst of activity in the first 15 pages somewhere that I remember getting some vaguely positive feelings from, but it came after scrutiny related to his playstyle, so I'm ambivalent about those positive feelings, and the rest of my Shadow impressions have been negative.

[Saporerint]

FINALLY DONE GOD CHRIST.

Short version:

Major reads recapitulated. I think I'm town on Kortul now -- I was suspicious of his requests for players to re-explain the bvoight wagon, but his eventual personal effort on that front dealt with my fears a little, along with his subsequent content. Shinori has become my wet-dream D1 lynch. Feysal's iso on greenknight was awful; I take back everything nice I said about him. I still think the original wagon on him was bad, though.

NOTE SET 4 -- From page 41

Note to come back to Benmage's SnowStorm wagon in a big way (1033). Jal and Shinori look like likely scum, and Jal-scum would basically clear DE.

Jal does the comprehensive self-meta thing to answer DE's meta scumtell claim (1045).

Kortul middle-of-the-roads Bvoight, requests additional explanation of Bvoight scumtells (1074). If Kortul is scum, Bvoight is not his scumfriend.

Kortul pushes Shadow...makes me uncomfortable in light of the above (1081).

I just realized that Nacho must be the other half of Plum. <_< (1089). Also, RegFan seems to have a very strong townread on Kortul. I don't share it, but it makes me feel less uneasy about 1081....

God, Shinori is so scum (1093). SO SCUM.

ABR is HASDFDSA (1104). I came a little.

MoS has really kicked the townie into high gear the last 5 pages or so.

Tierce thinks Kortul is town (1117).

Bummer about Amrun replacing out.

Stefan is so scummy (1050). This is just marginally less bad than Shinori's post.

Kortul's vote for bvoight is the least-bad of this set of votes for Bvoight (1152).

I agree with Benmage about Feysal's green-night iso. This REEKS of self-protection. This in fact overrides my leaning town read on Feysal altogether. It's probably the most egregious thing I have seen as of page 47 or whatever, and this has been a thread with egregious things (1165).

TOWN
Staeg
Tyene Sand (Tierce)
Kortul
RegFan
GreenKnight
Bvoight
Benmage
MoS
Plessie
MoI
Cow/ABR
Pandora
Saporerint
Starbuck
BBMolla
Snowstorm

AMBIVALENCE
Minimum
LyannaStark (Tammy)
mockingjaye
DolorousEdd
Plum's Yo Mamma
Seraphim
Jal

SCUM
Shinori
DCL
Shadow
Feysal
StefanB

Now I am going to sleep with my pouting boyfriend.

[Saporerint]

I guess there's no use splitting hairs over it. Shadow is a viable wagon that I like. It's also a fundamentally non-tragic mislynch.

Unvote; Vote: Shadow

Choose:

Shadow

Feysal

My lynch preferences at this point are

1) Shinori 2) Stefan 3) Shadow 4) DCL

. I'm also no longer going to fight over Feysal as the Chosen wagon; I think his greenknight iso was terrible, and I think townFeysal would know better than to iso his alternawagon in a huge game like this, as it's just begging for confirmation bias errors.

I'll confer with Sapo to see if she disagrees with me in a big way about anything. I'll check the thread periodically to check for any 11th hour Shinori wagons.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

@ Lyanna

I put BB in the town column on gut from his page 1 jokeclaim post and have stuck with it without any hiccups. Looking through his iso, the only other moment I remember standing out is when he posted constructively about SS's flavor-spec (195), and SS's response to that made me reinterpret SS's original flavor-spec more
- Iecerint

Why do you think that giving someone a town read based on gut is meaningful, yet say that someone's reasons (ie...me) for voting someone because their posts make them feel twitchy is a lot of nothing?

1. That bit (i.e., the one from noteset 1 that I think you're referring to) was just one example. You need the full wallpost context to really understand what I was talking about. It's not been as bad in the past few pages.

2. I guess giving town gut reads might theoretically be a bit better (e.g., they're not getting lynched, this can mask role-based townreads, etc), but it's not a dichotomy that drives my decision-making process.

@ Jal

[Sapor] says she found SnowStorm town, but doesn't really comment on any of the posts or votes concerning the wagon - and it was quite a big wagon at some point. I'd think she'd at least have a comment to make such as she did concerning the Bvoight wagon. Apparently, I look likely scum some time between 991 and 1033 where I don't even post.

I actually did comment on it, albeit not until the context of Benmage doing his wagon analysis. I'm surprised you didn't notice this, because you are literally referring to said commentary (1033). This is the post:

SnowStorm (10) - Plessiezarus,

Regfan, Tyene Sand

, Feysal, Jal, Shinori,

MagnaofIllusion, Pandora, BBmolla

, kortul

I agree with basically all his townreads, and I would throw in Plessie and Kortul, too. That leaves you, Shinori, and Feysal. This is part of why Shinori jumped to the top of my ideal lynches.

Actually, that note in particular (top of 1264) just comes out of pretty much nowhere, and indicates "pre-reading" prior to actually making the notes (they aren't stream of conscious).

Well, I'd kept up with the thread from page 45 forward or so to answer questions about my notesets, so it shouldn't really be a surprise that I became more knowledgeable about what's going on as the notesets go forward. Not sure which comment in post 1245 you're referring to, though.

Gives a short version of his last reads which reports Kortul as town now, although none of the notes actually indicates this feeling beyond Kortul's vote for Bvoight being least bad among a set of votes.

Kortul asked people to explain the bvoight case 3 times. This bothered me because scum sometimes do this to saturate the thread with rhetoric of a certain type. When Kortul responded to no one answering by doing his own iso and noticing non-parroted things, those concerns went away. This also made be extra-happy, because I wasn't worried about his Shadow shift anymore.

That's my note on your first post. You voted for DE at a time when most were calling him town. It stuck out to me both for that reason and because earlier I had been surprised DE hadn't gotten more scrutiny.

But what about it?

I always try to take note of players' first post, especially if they enter the game late or post more sporadically. This helps me remember them. I don't remember anything coming of it so far, so no, there's nothing about it in particular.

I should note that the notes are mostly intended for me (it's hard to keep myself from skimming if I don't take notes), but I post them, anyway, to give people a sense of my thought process.

Are your reads in order of strength?

No, they're in order of the modpost on page 1. I already gave my top scumpics in a post after that, so that should be clear, at any rate. What are you wanting clarification on?

Just to comment. I didn't do some comprehensive self-meta thing. I put down links to both my town and scum games to show and give a better understanding of my town meta because I feel like its evolved beyond my first game on the site. Also, DE didn't post a scum-meta. He posted town-meta.

That wasn't a criticism. I'm OK with self-meta; I do it all the time, and it drives people crazy. This was a note to me that you had done this so that I could go back and review what you'd posted (cuz I don't have time D1).

- Iec

[Saporerint]

I hadn't noticed how far along the DCL Choosewagon had come. It looks like both wagons are tied now. I'd thought Feysal was basically the only viable wagon there.

I am happy with both options there now. I think Sapo may prefer DCL, so we will confer and re-post soon.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

I'm really not jazzed about the Shadow wagon tbh. He's not pro-town exactly but he's plenty willing to stick out his neck. I'm fine with DCL as our Choose vote.

Will post more later, gotta drive back to the Hills. Plan to take a look at Shinori.

-saps

[Saporerint]

unvote

[Saporerint]

I'm still happy with a Shadow lynch. MoI's "dead man" point doesn't work because we already have outed Masons. I think we should stick with Shadow rather than have someone else claim with less than 2 days to deadline.

Feysal's SS wagon position and greenknight iso make me more comfortable with him as the Choose.

- Iec

EDIT: lolwat.

[Saporerint]

Sapo disagrees with me, apparently. <_<

VOTE: StefanB

If this is happening, after all, I'll help.

@ Lyanna -- "SS wagon position" refers to the large number of town players on the SS wagon; his non-obvtown wagonmates are only Jal and scumShinori. Doing an iso on your alternawagon (i.e., Feysal -> greenknight) and then voting him is poor town play, or just scummy play, and Feysal is a good player. Refer to notepost 3 or 4 for details.

[Saporerint]

EBWOP: - Iec

[Saporerint]

So Iece, is your position that he's lying about his claim, or that he's a scum torturer?

I don't doubt that scum roleblock + rolecop is feasible, if that's what you mean.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

Lynching StefanB is objectively the best play at this point. I think Bvoight's town, and I don't want another claim.

The only thing I'd add to Kortul's post is the context of Stefan's DE vote. Plessie had posted a good pro-DE post just before the vote. Language issues aside, ignoring others' perspective on the player Stefan suspected was scummy. I was especially sensitive to this because I also suspected DE around the same point in the thread.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

Stefan is "objectively" the best lynch because you "think" Bvoigt is town?

Stefan is objectively the best lynch because Stefan has claimed VT 1 day before deadline. This is a no-brainer.

Frankly, lynching Shadow was also a no-brainer, as his claimed role both didn't change the likelihood that he was scum and can't confirm his alignment.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

IIRC, Starbuck claimed VT a) on page 12 or something b) with no significant wagon (but a fair amount of rhetoric, mostly because she had some bizarre idea about the Choose mechanic). If you thought her VT claim

made her scum

, then you probably should have wagoned her and maybe lynched her way back then, but it would be that you thought something about the claim made her scummy (e.g., the circumstances of the claim).

Claiming with a wagon is different. The only reason a claim should change things is if it's alignment-confirmable (e.g., Masons, Cop), and/or if it makes them scumbait (e.g., Vig). (Scum can WIFOM this, but it requires a risk on their part that I would welcome.)

Stefan claimed with a smaller wagon, but at 24 hours to deadline and with momentum, that may as well have been a full wagon.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

Saporerint still a great lynch, and we need to lock in our choose sooo...

This is incorrect. A Choose does not need to be locked in. A plurality is all that is needed.

The vote, however,

does

need a simple majority.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

No, you said that this lynch was objectively better because he claimed VT. Starbuck had claimed VT earlier, with a less momentum on her wagon, but it was still there. The thing is, you're trying to justify Steph as the objectively better lynch in a game of mafia. Almost nothing is objective in mafia.

I think we are differing in what we mean by "objective." Put it this way -- the least worst case scenario is to lynch StefanB (because WCS is lynching a VT). Getting yet-another claim, which may not be VT, offers a worse worst case scenario and additional risk. The fact that I consider bvoight a strong town read and StefanB a strong scum read amplifies this risk difference, but the risk difference is there regardless (i.e., UNLESS you consider StefanB significantly more town than bvoight). This is what I mean by "objective."

The contrast with Starbuck is mainly that she was not scummy. YMMV on that, I guess. If you think that both are comparably scummy, then the Starbuck and Stefan cases are objectively similar (except that you might have wanted to give everyone a chance to post before ending D1, etc).

Getting everyone to claim D1 to find the scum who might have a sketchier fakeclaim or something is not a good town strategy. There's a reason why we don't all massclaim at the start of D1.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

If you go back and reread Stefan, it's pretty clear what character he is softclaiming here. Which is a bit weird, since that character seems a rather unlikely member of the Lannister Alliance (in this book).

It looks like Tyrion to me:

To make it short.

I can only say sorry for inning and at last it would be good for Cersai at last (which should give away who I am)

And Tyrion is basically Aegon-aligned in ADWD from what I understand (i.e., only have wiki-tier knowledge of books 3-5).

- Iec

[Saporerint]

I'm not seeing the evidence for him soft claiming Tyrion.

(I will admit to be amazingly retarded when it comes to finding breadcrumbs though.)

I posted the crumbs directly. Tyrion is short (a dwarf). Cersei thinks Tyrion is fated to kill her or ruin her queenship or something (can't recall details).

Why Stefan has only soft-claiming his name like this, I don't know. I agree that he should be clear.

[Saporerint]

Littlefinger's listed there, as Littlefinger rather than Baelish. It looks like MacavityLock (survived to endgame) was Tyrion.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

Sorry -- the High Septon isn't even a character as far as I've read, so it didn't come to mind. (I do know about the Honor Walk he has Cersei do, but nothing beyond that he has her do it.) He should've claimed the first time and avoided the confusion. <_<

Bvoight, why is Shinori town? The rest looks decent (I think MoI and Staeg are probably town, though).

- Iec

[Saporerint]

If I understand correctly, I think blind jailkeeps are probably best. We can evaluate the targets publicly, anyway, and adding in that transparency would be the main benefit of open discussion AFAICT.

With Shadow's clear result claim, Bvoight is probably the lynch. I would like a target claim from him before the day ends. I also want to confer with Sapo about our jailkeep before day's end.

I am a bit skeptical of Shinori's soft-claim. I do not understand why she felt it was necessary. (This is not a request that she elaborate further.)

Zdenek's catch-up looks OK so far. I got a different sense occasionally, but he has flips, so ye know.

@ Zdenek

I'm still happy with a Shadow lynch. MoI's "dead man" point doesn't work because we already have outed Masons. I think we should stick with Shadow rather than have someone else claim with less than 2 days to deadline.

Feysal's SS wagon position and greenknight iso make me more comfortable with him as the Choose.

- Iec

EDIT: lolwat.

So it will take a few more days, but the argument stands.

What does this comment refer to?

And Tyrion is basically Aegon-aligned in ADWD from what I understand (i.e., only have wiki-tier knowledge of books 3-5).

Are you seriously trying to suggest that the mods would have given out scum a fake-claim that is so bad, it could lead to their lynch or no fake claim at all?

You have to compare it to the probability of Tyrion being town -- not just to the absolute probability on its own. Tyrion was what jumped out to me when I went back after reading Stefan and Plessie's comments.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

The question was whether Tyrion was his real claim vs. his fake claim -- not whether it was likely to be a fake claim per se (i.e., because the chance of it being a real town role was low, which was the point of both my bringing it up).

- Iec

[Saporerint]

Sapo: He wasn't even Tyrion in the first place so who the fuck cares anymore about whether it was a real fake scum town claim?

Zdenek asked.

[Saporerint]

My point exactly. Which means my role could go either way. If i out my info then it could just help scum a hell of a lot more than town.

If people sincerly think it's better I'll out the small amount of info I have but I don't feel safe doing it because it could easily be me jumping to conclusions because the results point to multiple scenarios.

Sigh. Wouldn't it have made more sense not to talk about this at all until tomorrow then?

I don't think there's any reasonable way of speculating about the number of power roles/ how many are scum aligned and such. It's bound to be a huge cluster.

I think the only proper thing to do is VOTE FOR JAILING SHINORI and wait on this but Iec may not agree with me.

-sapo

[Saporerint]

So, Sapo just showed me this. O_O

That was indeed a mispost meant for the Mod. We've had a back-and-forth starting from Shadow's result claim, and I had my reply on a different tab.

The back-and-forth started because I was surprised by Shadow's claim of explicit differences between null results and roleblocked results. I can't elaborate further.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

[T]his discussion makes no sense from the POV of someone who is trying to figure out Shadow1psc's role--why would you be wondering about YOUR active abilities?

What I accidentally posted is part of a longer back-and-forth. You're interpreting it out-of-context.

I've sent Faraday a PM to see how much other context I can provide. <_<

@ Mina -- It will be clear why Shadow's result claim prompted me to start correspondence with the Mod. That line itself may still be weird depending upon how much context I'm allowed to provide.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

Yesterday Faraday encouraged me to PM him whatever I would post first, and he'd OK'd this by morning:

1. After seeing Shadow's claim, I asked the Mod for clarification of one of our abilit(ies).

2. The Mod responded in a manner consistent with my prior understanding (which created an apparent unresolved discrepancy).

3. I told the Mod thanks.

Then I realized that my confusion may have been based on how I had interpreted the active-ness of my role.

4. I asked the Mod how he was operationalizing "active" vs. "passive."

5. The Mod clarified that it depended upon whether a player used his ability on selected players.

6. [Something similar to what I posted in this thread.]

7. The Mod clarified, resolving the apparent discrepancy.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

Explain how this did not answer your question right away.

I totally did not notice those labels until going back to check my PM just now. I could have sworn my PM didn't have anything like that. It does have labels, though.

(Faraday did not allude to the labels' existence during our back-and-forth.)

- Iec

[Saporerint]

I mean Sunday (meatworld yesterday). Shadow's results claim D2 is what prompted me to ask the Mod for clarification, specifically the distinction between roleblocked and null results. D1 (i.e., after getting my role PM) I had asked for clarifications about an ability. One of those clarifications appeared at odds with Shadow's D2 claim.

It is now clear that I am an idiot (even more than I thought, given what Shadow pointed out), and there was no discrepancy.

- Iec

EDIT: Sapo and I have sent in our jailkeep already.

[Saporerint]

Prod received. Still waiting for the jailkeep housekeeping to finish up.

- Iec

[Saporerint]

I'm about to go to bed, but it looks like our claim is warranted.

We are

Barbrey Dustin

. Our flavor is that we hate the Starks. We're supporting the Lannisters mainly out of hatred of the Starks. The flavor makes numerous references to the remains of the Starks, the implication being that our enduring hatred is out of touch with reality.

Our only ability is called

Knick-knack paddywack, give a dog a bone Ned Stark 'aint [sic] coming home

. The ability is described as a self-watcher ability. It's a Passive ability, but I didn't notice that it was so labeled explicitly until Shadow pointed it out. If anyone targets us, we will be told who targeted us. If no one targets us, we will receive no result. Both N1 and N2, we received no result.

I asked about roleblocking when I replaced in D1 -- specifically, whether it would return Roleblocked or No Result. The Mod indicated that a roleblock would appear the same as if no one had targeted me. This is why Shadow's result claim D2 seemed weird to me. In hindsight, the discrepancy presumably arose from Shadow's ability having been an Active ability, and mine being a Passive ability. It's still a bit weird, though, as I would have expected a Passive ability to be immune to roleblocks altogether. Maybe the game includes Passive roleblocks or something.

I don't really see DE being lynched over us, so I suspect we will not survive D3. Sapo and I differ on how town we find him (i.e., she more than I), but we both have a town read on him. I'll get some thoughts in before we die.

Bedtime --

- Iec