My Little Pony: Friendship is Redemption (Over)

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Yarr.

First off: if there's no power beyond Sala and me, pretty sure you can assume 1 scum.

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Feysal's town and you are not allowed to lynch him.

More tomorrow.

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I can read Feysal. I have read Feysal. He is town. Lynching townies is not allowed.

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You guys don't have to stop posting because I'm catching up, you know. There's a whole thread of things you can draw my attention to specifically.

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I intend to read through all the ISOs, including yours, DJ. Konowa didn't strike me as that bad based on his ISO. I'll finish the other two tomorrow afternoon when I'm done with my study for the week.

Re: Feysal, really, a good part of it is simply that Feysal really is bad at scum; his mindset is just too inherently townie to play a good scum game (see e.g. his silly flavour comments early D1 and him proclaiming proudly that all his votes were on real suspects in Chrono Trigger, a game he was very obvious in). Quite a few people have trouble reading him regardless because they also think him suspicious when he's town (it doesn't help that he's not the most active player generally). I don't have that problem and I'm pretty confident that he's town here.

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Something still doesn't feel right about the all-town Arugula wagon, and Feysal's vote is actually quite conveniently placed for scum on that wagon.

There's nothing wrong with all-town wagons especially with just two scum who could've been on it.

I don't find Konowa's points interesting.

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Believing an all town wagon with how bad Godot played is hard to believe.

That's because you haven't really processed the mountain of evidence in favour of that supposition (i.e. almost everyone on the wagon flipping town) and are still trying to judge it by how likely it is for any random game wherein Godot gets lynched D1 to have an all-town wagon (which is fairly slim, yes). If you really believe in wagon analysis, then sure from your perspective it'll be a slight scum tell against Feysal but you really have to come at from this fallacious "how likely is an all town wagon without taking into account all the things I know? Let's pretend that likelihood is still magically relevant" perspective to make a meaningful point out of it.

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The points are just stuff that sounds reasonable at first but when I think about what I expect Feysalscum to do, it just doesn't match up. Your Raritycounterwagonthing also contradicts the "Godotwagon can't be all town" one.

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Oh, you're definitely getting lynched. I'm just looking for a back-up option at this point.

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Fairly close to being fully caught up.

Some notes:
Regardless of what people in-thread said, Trixie played a perfectly competent scum game first MLP behaviourally (we didn't role-cop him for nothing). So if he looked townier later on than he did the first two Days, well, I wouldn't count that for that much.

I don't like how Konowa and Trixie both seem to sidestep the Godot/Arugulawagon for the most part.

Top 3 Town Picks:
Trixie (fatlikepig or whatever)

I don't see why Arugula is calling him Trixie and then also adding his real username after. This feels weird. Like something that got planned in a scum QT (daytalk seems plausible enough here for a 3-man scum team.)

I replaced Derpy Hooves in both of Dash's MLP games - once the player/alt, once the role.

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Shake it up and do something unexpected (well, unexpected coming from the tame-looking Arugula) by including a buddy in the top 3 town reads (reads he never ended up explaining either) to buy the buddy some towncred.

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Or he could've just asked for some help coming up with fake reads.

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Daytalking scum intentionally trying to turn vca into a tool that works in their favour is also fairly consistent with that trixie fake townread theory I mentioned just now.

I think I could go for lynching fatlikepig Today actually. Konowa, switch over.

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Vikill clearly implicates Trixie by the bye.

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Fully caught up and stuff.

Let's lynch Trixie.

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I know enough of Feysal's playstyle to know this theorizing doesn't really work; he'd definitely be more motivated to show up as a townie at risk of a mislynch. Trixie's play the last few days seem perfectly consistent with scum too - under the radar, just letting the town mislynch to death. I also don't see how Konowa's lurking is supposed to fit "lategame scum" when he's been one of the two lined up lynches and hasn't really done much to try and change that.

Magna convincing people to switch to Charlie is irrelevant by the bye; Charlie probably would've been mislynched regardless and a single incident doesn't magically make all replacements incapable of catching scum . If that scenario repeated itself, it'd be entirely coincidental.

Why wouldn't you trust me anyway? I've yet to read Feysal incorrectly; I was pushing his lynch in Chrono Trigger over what was much pretty much confirmed scum; and I'm just generally scumhunting pretty accurately this year.

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As I was reading through the game, I didn't see a whole lot of Konowa addressing issues and screwing up though.

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I'm not 100% sure but I think I remember having seen BBmolla reference intentionally playing wagon analysis as scum.

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DJ is currently voting you.

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If this isn't it, lynch Trixie tomorrow. No ifs or buts; no "taking responsibility for your own vote" or some hogwash like that; just sheep the person who has the most information and has at least as good a judgment as anyone left.