A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!


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Post Post #527 (isolation #0) » Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:25 am

Post by kortul »

Greetings. I was following the thread so far, but sometimes was just skimming, at the peak of thread activity. Now, since i am in the game, merely skimming isn't enough, so will do a reread. I am on vacation with a family, and we are visiting friends in US, so will steal night time for reread.

For now, UNVOTE: and
Unchoose
.

P.Edit.
Mod,
guess i should be in a counts instead of my predeccessor. :)
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Post Post #648 (isolation #1) » Sat Aug 25, 2012 7:01 pm

Post by kortul »

Still rereading, 26 pages and 28 players mean that merely skimming isn't an option. Meanwhile i have questions.

After the Feysal post 47, several players began to suspect him for casually mentioning several scum factions. First, i believe that 28 players game should have multiple scum factions, or it would be scumsided (imho). Second, all those players decided to CHOOSE Feysal, instead of VOTIng him. Why? Either you believe this to be a scumslip, in that case where by page 2 did you get a
stronger
scum read? Or you don't really believe this to be a scumslip, then choosing is strange. If this wasn't answered some time later in thread, can those who have CHOOSEn Feysal on pages 2 and 3 explain why they didn't VOTE instead?

In post 123, Lyanna Stark wrote:Dolorous Edd is very very likely to be town. His is far more likely to come from town him than scum him, especially with the follow up "What do you guys think?"
I understand why some people have suspicions of him, but I haven't seen anything from him yet that raises any alarms
, and between him and his hydra partner, I'm pretty confident in my ability to get an accurate read on them in time.
Lyanna
, as far as i understand, that means that reasons, why some players suspect Dolorus Edd for, you don't see as suspicious. Can you list those reasons and explain why do you those suspicions are wrong? (ie you can read him better, so your input may help others)
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Post Post #795 (isolation #2) » Mon Aug 27, 2012 3:24 pm

Post by kortul »

*sigh* Another sprint of posts within several hours. Guess i won't rush things, will take a good night sleep, open all the pages separately in a browser in the morning and will read them through a long flight from New York back to Europe, until the battery lasts. Hopefully this way i will finish reread on Wednesday.

Meanwhile some thoughts. Several times i've seen suggestions to choose a town for an assassin mission. Most likely that means that they suggest that common town read or obvtown should be chosen. Even if the read would be accurate and the choosen one is town, how would you figure out that he/she isn't some PR, without essentially forcing him to claim (directly or indirectly)? Unless there is some real good way of doing this, those supporting the idea can agree on volunteers as possible candidates (for now MoI and Starbuck, as far as i remember). Even if the volunteer is scum looking for town credit, he/she would be stuck in a gambit.

But that complicates things, imho, second lynch is more straighforward and logical approach.
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Post Post #910 (isolation #3) » Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:42 am

Post by kortul »

Battery died during a flight sooner than i expected, so i still have 14 pages ahead. On a bright side, vacation is over, and i should be able to find time at work to finish this marathon. Still, we are 5 days from deadline, and 28 players means large momentum of wagons, so i will try to make a compromise with my pedanticism and decide on a vote today. At least i will give it a try - pick the players i strongly suspect as of page 23, and ISO them. If after the ISO i will still believe them to be scum, i'll vote/choose them. If not, so be it, will continue tomorrow, 30 hours without sleep is too much.

For now i don't like the play of SnowStorm, Shadow1psc, and to lesser extent Salamence20, BBmolla and Mastermind of Sin. So i will quickly ISO the first two to see if something changed on the last 14 pages. If anyone interested, right now my town reads are (S->W) Lyanna Stark, Regfan, Plessiezarus, MoI, Tyene Sand, Staeg, Plums Yo Mamma, Feysal, and hesitating on Minimum and Dolorus Edd. I know, that there are some cross suspicions among them, but that doesn't mean they can't be town together.

Btw, are hydras always so strange? I thought the heads work together, not separately. Here sometimes i am at loss about two-headed craziness, like liking one head and suspecting another.
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Post Post #922 (isolation #4) » Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:38 am

Post by kortul »

After the ISO of
SnowStorm
i believe he is scum.

I don't like his entrance post - question is ok, but vote feels wrong to me, without even waiting for the answer (apparently it wasn't a rhytorical question). In the next post he repeated the question, but kinda forgot to follow it afterwards. Just some time later Benmage become his townread.

After that i see mostly passive stance, answering questions or commenting. Without some follow-up analysis that doesn't really help to advance the game.

When first time i read following remark, it caught my eye. It was made after the comment of Regfan, that Snow
"has a lot of experience over at westeroes where I'd argue players are better at keeping up with spam-post-days due to the 32 hour deadlines and no, entire reason behind why I think he's scum isn't all meta based."
In post 360, SnowStorm wrote:Btw, I think it's worth mentioning that in all my mafia experience at Westeros I've only been mafia once.
To me it sounds like "i don't have much experience of keeping the pace as scum, give me a break", because i just don't see what else he was addressing there. If someone has another vision of why was it made, i am listening.

I don't see him keeping a vote on his town read all that scummy, just silly. I suspected this to be some reaction test, and he said so in 560, but if that was a test, i didn't see any conclusions from Snow.

His latest posts finally show some halfhearted scumhunting, mostly on those who vote him. But with three scum reads (Jal, bvoigt and Shinori), he uses only his vote, even though he thinks that choosing should be used as a second lynch.

VOTE: SnowStorm

I am too tired to ISO my second strongest suspicion atm, and even if after the ISO i will believe he is also scum, using CHOOSE on him would be more sensible, therefore i will do the ISO tomorrow.
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Post Post #999 (isolation #5) » Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:07 pm

Post by kortul »

While all the points why i think that SnowStorm is scum are still valid for me, mason claim during early stages of the game is one of those cases where i am willing to unvote even without some kind of proof/confirmation. Even if this is a gambit, if we have several scum parties one of them will shut him down just in case he is some PR of an opposite scum team.

UNVOTE: SnowStorm

But i do hope, that if Snow is town, he will wake up and become more alive now, since he is experienced enough and should realize, that with this claim his days are limited one way or another.
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Post Post #1000 (isolation #6) » Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:22 pm

Post by kortul »

I realized do have one question about this claim though, to
those who have deep knowledge of the theme
- is Little Walder Frey being a mason makes sense from roleplaying point of view?
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Post Post #1001 (isolation #7) » Wed Aug 29, 2012 10:22 pm

Post by kortul »

In post 923, Shadow1psc wrote:
In post 922, kortul wrote:I am too tired to ISO my second strongest suspicion atm, and even if after the ISO i will believe he is also scum, using CHOOSE on him would be more sensible, therefore i will do the ISO tomorrow.

"I haven't read someone, but I bet you after I do, they'll be scum!"
Hmm, i thought that anyone who plays mafia should know the IF clause and some kind of formal logic (even without proper education), so interpreting my words like this means that comment was done without even thinking on the meaning.
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Post Post #1008 (isolation #8) » Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:38 pm

Post by kortul »

Thanks, Tierce.

Have some time for reading now, planned to continue reread, but with 4 days remaining and claim of Snow deciding on a vote and choose is more important atm. Those not voting (or sitting on wagons with 1-2 votes) should make a decision as well, compromise if needed.

Without the finished reread ISO is the way to go, so i will check Salamence20 and bvoigt (two leading wagons for Vote); Feysal, greenknight and Shadow1psc (wagons for Choose). Based on finished part of reread i don't like Shadow1psc and Salamence20 (weaker read), have weak town read on Feysal and seen like one or two posts from bvoigt and nothing from greenknight, so both are null.
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Post Post #1017 (isolation #9) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 3:29 am

Post by kortul »

With meetings/etc only finished
Salamance
ISO. I think he is leaning scum.

I really don't like his catchup post, since every single comment, question or observation, that isn't defense, is either negative or accusing. This isn't real scumhunting, imho, but attempts to cause dissention as much as possible. Some later posts are one the same wavelength.

His defense is bad as well. Like, in posts 384 and 393, of all the points of Minimum, he decided to address only the meta part, ignoring everything else, by deflecting on a basis that he and Ces "haven't even played a full game together, so I don't think that is enough for CES to get suspicious". This may be true (though he has the right to suspect anyway), but what about the rest?

His latest posts are about nothing. No efforts to even pretend to be scumhunting.

I have a funny feeling that he is trying to find out, is it possible to have fun, do nothing and get away with it. It isn't a scumtell, but not a town attitude either. Without his "catchup post" i would rate him as neutral, silly, slightly leaning scum, but that post, without nothing to balance it, sinked him lower.

Began to work on bvoigt, mixed impressions so far.
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #10) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 3:51 am

Post by kortul »

In post 1009, Dolorous Edd wrote:Ahahah. Told you Snow was town. Now we just wasted a claim :(
You may be right, but we will know it only after the flip.

In post 1012, Dolorous Edd wrote:
In post 910, kortul wrote:If anyone interested, right now my town reads are (S->W) Lyanna Stark, Regfan, Plessiezarus, MoI, Tyene Sand, Staeg, Plums Yo Mamma, Feysal, and hesitating on Minimum and Dolorus Edd. I know, that there are some cross suspicions among them, but that doesn't mean they can't be
town
together.

I'm guessing you obv mean scum here, not town?

Also, can you please explain your strong town read on Feysal please?
I said what i wanted to say. I have town reads, some of them are against each other, but i still believe they can be wrong, stuck in confirmation bias, and be town together. Or i may be wrong about someone, that's why i reassess my reads regularly. I do believe i can't be wrong about all (or most) of them.

As for Feysal, take a look on my reads again. They are sorted from strong to weak, and Feysal is in the weak part. I actually liked his post 47. Some players see a possible scum slip there, and i see just a good theoretical post on a new option, available to us. I may be wrong and it could be a slip, but the post is good regardless of it. There were some points in other posts that i liked, so i have a weak town read on him. Since i am planning to do an ISO on him anyway, as he is one of the leading wagons for Choosing, i will post the updated read after that.
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Post Post #1073 (isolation #11) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:31 am

Post by kortul »

Ok, finished my ISO on
bvoigt
. He is definitely not my town read, but i am not convinced that he is scum. I agree with some of his thoughts, disagree with some.

Spoiler: Things i don't like
In post 510, bvoigt wrote:
In post 224, Feysal wrote:
In post 75, Starbuck wrote:I don't understand how everyone is so sure that scum would shoot another scum. It's being said like it is fact and that it will definitely happen that way. I don't believe it will, so while my opinion on it is unpopular (look at all the people who have hopped on my bandwagon to prove that point), I don't believe that it is wrong or scummy.

This post has already been torn to shreds by others, but it serves to highlight how Starbuck does not seem to be reading the same game we are. I cannot trace her thoughts at all, and I don't understand how anyone could have a town read on her.

She has seemed confused so far, but you seem to be implying that it's a scumtell. That doesn't make sense to me.
That's misrepresentation based on a logical fallacy - Feysal states that he doesn't understand Starbuck thoughts and how people have a town read on her, that doesn't imply the opposite, that he sees the post as scumtell.

In post 611, bvoigt wrote:
In post 541, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 535, bvoigt wrote:Though I see why you thought I was fencesitting on your post, that wasn't my intention. I think it was a scummy post.

Good. Please elaborate on what was scummy specifically in terms of scum motivation.

I think the motivation was to "manufacture," if you will, a towntell. Again, there's no direct scum motivation to selfchoose. But the way that you pointed out that scum wouldn't want to do it as soon as someone questioned you makes me think that it was a move deliberately calculated to get towncred.
MoI actually gave a reasonable explanation in the post 125. So, him asking in the same post about possible scum motivation looks natural to me. If bvoigt views this as a calculated attempt to get a towncred, the logical thing to do would be call the bluff and CHOOSE MoI.
Also, i don't agree with his scumreads on MoI and Feysal, especially after his
In post 957, bvoigt wrote:3. Yes, Sala is the only case I've really pushed in this game, because he's by far my strongest scumread, and MoI and Feysal haven't really done enough scummy things that I could make a full case on them.

Still, disagreement in reads isn't a scum tell, so now i have a dilemma. I view Salamance20 as more scummy than bvoigt, but i don't like the company on his wagon (only Minimum is ok and Amrun null). Most of those who i believe are town are either on bvoigt or somewhere else.

Can those who vote bvoigt explain,
why he is more scummy than Salamance20 (or why Salamance20 is town for you, if that's the case)? If this is meta based, are there clear examples of bvoigt!scum or Salamance!town that you can link to?
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Post Post #1074 (isolation #12) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:36 am

Post by kortul »

Finished ISO on
Feysal
as well, to be sure whether i agree with bvoigt opinion on him. He remained my weak town read. While reading i was agreeing with many of his thoughts and some reads, liked his post 47, most of content in post 448. There were no scum or strong town tells for me, but his playing style is similar to mine, his reads are naturally developing as the game progresses. I don't see why he gathered so many CHOOSE votes.

I am definitely not Choosing him, so will continue with ISO on greenknight and Shadow1psc.
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Post Post #1081 (isolation #13) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:47 am

Post by kortul »

Finished the ISO of
Shadow1psc
. Out of his 70 posts, more than 2/3 are about nothing (that's like two extra pages to read). I just hate this style.

In his first 15 posts or so only 1 or 2 have some thoughts. Then came the period of defending, at first defense was based on the idea that "scum wouldn't act scummy", then it actually become more sensible. One post in particular caught my attention:
In post 401, Shadow1psc wrote:How about the explanation of, the game isn't even 3 (real) days old and people are trying to actually use limited amount of interaction in a 28 player game to pinpoint behavior as either 'scummy' or 'town', as if the game has been going on for weeks,
or some mystical mindset is able to actually tell you I am <....>
, much in the way I've been called out for calling Mina town (which I never actually said she was, just that she shouldn't be lynched because Mina is easy to read in later days).
Everyone who isn't Shadow1psc, imagine yourself telling the bolded part. What would you use in place of the word that i erased?
Spoiler:
Then compare the word you used with your alignment, and check what was used in the actual post.


I actually liked one of his next posts, it is consistent with his attitude and style so far. That's about it. In the rest of his posts the noise to signal ratio is awful. And i already addressed his peculiar rection to my neutral statement.

If we both will survive into the later days, and he will start actually helping the city, i will reassess my opinion. Who knows, maybe information from flips he is so waiting for will transform him into the scumhunter extraordinaire. But for now i am more than comfortable with choosing him, and would vote him if his Vote wagon had any chances, he is more scummy than Salamance20.

CHOOSE Shadow1psc


Reading Shadow took much longer than i expected, and it is close to 1 am already, so will read the greenknight tomorrow. Hope to see some answers to my previous question in the morning.
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Post Post #1122 (isolation #14) » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:47 pm

Post by kortul »

In post 1082, Shadow1psc wrote:
In post 1081, kortul wrote:Finished the ISO of Shadow1psc. Out of his 70 posts, more than 2/3 are about nothing (that's like two extra pages to read). I just hate this style.
So you can concede that more than 20 of my posts are helpful
Where did you find the word "helpful"? If you had 20 helpful posts, you would skyrocket as a town read for me. Those posts were defense, conversations, comments, etc (ie something, that not only you may be interested in).

In post 1084, Mastermind of Sin wrote:Uhhh...Shadow had more votes than chooses...why the fuck would you be comfortable choosing him but lament the fact that he doesn't have enough votes to be a viable wagon?

In fact, to further illustrate this point, there are two vote wagons of 8 and 6 right now. There are also two choose wagons of 8 and 6. The competition for a Shadow wagon for both voting and choosing is
exactly
the same. The only difference is that Shadow has more votes than chooses. So why the fuck would you say his vote wagon had no chance and then go ahead and choose him, which by your own logic has even
less
of a chance at succeeding?
Hmm, i can swear i saw more choose votes on him when yesterday morning i was deciding whom to ISO. And didn't check this when i was done. *shrug* Then just consider this is as a statement of whom i find scummy (like your choose on me now), when i die those doing my ISO will be sure where my suspicions were. I am not choosing Feysal, will be doing ISO on greenknight today, so until then my choose vote will stay on Shadow. And i definitely not starting yet another vote wagon, spreading the votes close to deadline (read one of my previous posts).

And to answer your second point - Choose wagons don't require 15 votes, Vote wagons do.

@
Plums Yo Mamma
- i don't know whether the thing i noticed is a slip or not, since i don't have enough statistical data on the answers. From a logical point of view i find that wording suspicious, and my read is partially based on it. But i am not going to push it as a slip, everyone can decide for himself.

Sadly, there was not a single answer to my question. Just in case it was just skimmed, i will repeat it again:
can those who vote bvoigt
explain, why he is more scummy than Salamance20 (or why Salamance20 is town for you, if that's the case)? If this is meta based, are there clear examples of bvoigt!scum or Salamance!town that you can link to?
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Post Post #1124 (isolation #15) » Fri Aug 31, 2012 12:41 am

Post by kortul »

Deadline extended for 2 days is a good thing, taking into acctount that 25% (7 out of 28) of the initial crew is already replaced, and Amrun is on way out as well (and Day 1 isn't finished yet).
Please, anyone out there who is thinking to replace as well, wait until the Day 2, at least.
If you replace now, do you really believe that your replacement will do a better job of catching up through 45 pages with 4 and a half days remaing?

Also, it occured to me, that while the majority of players agreed that CHOOSE is better used as a second lynch, we are not exactly using it this way. Both competing wagons in VOTE section right now have more votes than wagons in CHOOSE section. And obviously, competing wagons consist of different players. If one wagon simply jumped to the CHOOSE section, it would be the leading wagon there.

If we really want to use CHOOSE as a second lynch
, the correct approach would be to determine the VOTE lynch first, and once it would be obvious who would be lynched, stop at L-2 or L-1, when someone is ready to hammer, and start on working on second lynch in a CHOOSE section (with a pool consisting of one less player). That way, if the second leading wagon was real, and no one was compromising just to be there, it would just move to the choose section. But it will have to compete there with already existing wagons, and a real second lynch would be found.

Scum won't be able to completely disrupt the process by hammering earlier in vote section, since CHOOSE lynch doesn't need 15+ votes, and will happen anyway, just with one of the current leading wagons.
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Post Post #1134 (isolation #16) » Fri Aug 31, 2012 2:25 am

Post by kortul »

Finished ISO on
greenknight
. I don't like his entrance votes. I would understand vote based on ISO (and that would be less than 5 pages), but i don't agree with entering on page 24 and voting the leading wagon based on 5 pages. Second thing i don't like is his continued stance on Minimum, it feels like he was just trying hard to show that his vote was right in the first place, not really advancing the case or working on discovering alignment. For a change, i see his Feysal choose vote explanations as more natural (even though i have different opinion). The rest of the posts are more or less natural as well. Overall, i am not sold on him being scum, but he is suspicious enough, so my consciousness won't bug me if i CHOOSE him (the only real alternative at the moment is my weak town read).

UNCHOOSE
CHOOSE greenknight


Still no answers from those on bvoigt wagon, so instead of continuing reread i will ISO each one and read their cases on him, maybe then i will get a better picture and decide whom to vote.
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Post Post #1144 (isolation #17) » Fri Aug 31, 2012 4:57 am

Post by kortul »

Such cheesy comments, like "just about everyone", reinforce my read on you.
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Post Post #1152 (isolation #18) » Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:47 am

Post by kortul »

I noticed, that bvoigt practically ignores his wagon, so did a meta search on him to see whether this is an alignment tell for him. It appeared to be null tell, since this is his usual behavior.
FTR, I'm not any more concerned about my lynch when I'm scum. Maybe I should be, but if anything, I get called out for not responding to the points against me.

So, i did ISOs on those on bvoigt wagon, then on those whom i trust, looking for their opinions on bvoigt and Salamance. Posts from of MoI, Plums Yo Mamma and Dolorus Edd prompted me to look at his content from a different angle, and i agree on some points in their cases (not following up on questions, trying to justify a vote afterwards, irony of attacking Sala for “going after easy mislynches”).

At the same time it appears that Salamance20 has a reputation of VI (MoI) and "blatantly easy counterwagon" (Tierce), which explains most of my points against him (except for catching up post). Since he replaced out, VI part hopefully is out of picture now. Will reassess the read on Sala slot once his replacement will start posting content, but for now bvoigt is more viable lynch out of two, even though i am still not happy with it.

VOTE: bvoigt
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Post Post #1171 (isolation #19) » Fri Aug 31, 2012 11:27 pm

Post by kortul »

In post 1167, Lyanna Stark wrote:I'm wondering why people gave green knight a hard time for placing votes without reading and no one bats an eye when seraphim does it.
I looked at the quotes in his signature, sighed and moved on.
MoI
, what do you know of this replacement?

@
Feysal
- can you elaborate, in what posts greenknight seemed relaxed and townish? Are there thoughts or opinions they you like or agree with?

@
greenknight
- are there things you like about Feysal and his content?

It seems that not only i am unhappy with leading wagons, recently Benmage, Lyanna and Regfan said they are unhappy or not confident with current wagons. But they have different ideas as to who is scum. Right now i am confident only in my Shadow1psc scumread, anyone else will have to ISO. We also have 8 players not voting or sitting on a personal wagon, and that's a lot. 4 days and a half isn't much, but it is possible to make an alternative wagon, if they aren't happy with the leading.

Will continue (and hopefully finish) reread on weekend to have a complete picture in my mind and uptodate reads. Most likely will be with a family outdoors, reading cached pages whenever not busy.
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Post Post #1209 (isolation #20) » Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:28 pm

Post by kortul »

Saporerint is an improvement to the Sala slot in my eyes. I may agree or disagree with his opinions and reads, but he is working and giving his opinions, which is good for future analysis (even if this may be driven by wagon on him).

I definitely prefare Shadow wagon to bvoigt or Saporerint. Will ISO DCL and/or Stefan after reread (or if their possible wagons will start moving). But if all wagons will be stuck, will reassess leading wagons closer to deadline and make a final decision, nolynch is definitely the worst outcome.

In post 1180, Dolorous Edd wrote:Shadow is a vig bait though. Anyone with a mind would know to shoot him tonight (*hint hint*, like if you’re a townie who gets chosen today)
There's a problem with this approach - unless they are volunteers, assassin candidates are more likely to follow their own opinions. So i prefare a usual approach of lynching scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Shadow1psc

@
MoI
, in case you missed it first time, do you have a history with Seraphim? Any comments about him? His slot is null, his entrance is meh and he is absent.

@
Feysal
- so what is your opinion on current Vote wagons (you mentioned you are going to ISO bvoigt)? And what wagons are you willing to support?
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Post Post #1228 (isolation #21) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 9:20 am

Post by kortul »

@
Regfan
- thanks for spelling correction, English isn't my first or second language. And yes, will do those ISOs in the morning, with clear head. From the memory and my notes i can say that i only remember redFF theory discussions with Starbuck, DCL strange vote (sheeping Dolores Edd), and some reads at the beginning of the game from StefanB that i partially liked. Which means that the rest of the posts from both slots didn't caught my attention with scum/town tells.

In post 1219, Dolorous Edd wrote:For fucks sake, what the fuck is it up with us targetting masons, unless anyone who is about to get lynched claims mason :roll: (or this is some grand master plan by Snow and greenknight)
Same feelings :( And i really doubt this is some great gambit of green and Snow, since if green were scum logical choice would be accepting a one shot vig instead of painting a bulls eye on himself and dying soon anyway. That means that Snow claim was true as well.

UNCHOOSE
CHOOSE Shadow1psc


Just in case i am stuck in confirmation bias, i would like to ask those with town read on Shadow - what your town read is based on? If it is meta related thing, are there any links to his similar town game?

At least bvoigt isn't a mason, since green is on him. Actually, bvoigt is probably the only serious vote wagon remaining, and while i prefer it to no-lynch, i am not happy with it. Those with town read on bvoigt - it is time to protect your read and explain why do you think he is town (if you did it before, just link to the post), or push your cases.
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Post Post #1276 (isolation #22) » Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:15 pm

Post by kortul »

@bvoigt - so far i like Saporeint, and the slot overal got my weak town read. This hydra is working, you can see reads changing over time and the reasons why. Besides, i 've seen Iec scum game recently, it was different, he is much more relaxed and open.

@Dolorous Edd - you answered your own question to me: i moved my vote from bvoigt to Shadow because Shadow is my strongest scumread so far. I was voting bvoigt because i liked the alternative wagon even less, and spreading votes organizing third wagon is detrimental near deadline. Now, with deadline extension and alone bvoigt wagon with 2/3 of players sitting elsewhere, i do want to try and lynch my strongest suspicion instead.

Thanks, Lyanna. It seems that so far only you and Tierce notice my questions.

Finished my read on
DCLXVI
. He replaced redFF, so had to read both ISO.

redFF is null, with one thing that is nagging me. In his first post redFF voted Starbuck, because he suspected her trying to look pro-town, but not having town-minded thoughts. In the rest of his posts he is arguing with Starbuck on the Choose theories. In the same first post redFF choose voted Feysal, because he believed that he made "multi-scum slip" and to "see how feysal continues to react". Yet he never mentioned him at all afterwards, and replaced out a week later. That's it, there were no other interactions, opinions and thoughts. I think, that after the first few posts he wasn't really following the game, but i don't see this as a scum tell, since once he realized that he replaced out.

The only thing that I don't understand, is why while he was still active he was trying to persuade his scum suspect that her theories are wrong, unless he was trying to get a better read on her - in that case, he forgot to tell us the results.

There are two things i don't like about DCLXVI. In his first relevant post DCLXVI says, that he "finally skimmed through enough of this to make some sense out of what is happening", and proceeds with some reads and a vote on Jal, without even mentioning him before (or after). Even after Dolorus Edd switched vote from Jal, DCLXVI stayed there, without attacking/interrogating his suspect, or engaging or commenting on big wagons. And a second thing is that he was concentrated on defending himself even when there was no real pressure.

Overall impression - i am leaning scum on him, wish there were more recent posts from DCL to refine the read. I can trust him with a gun if i am wrong, since i remember him as a competent player.

UNCHOOSE
CHOOSE DCLXVI


Will continue with ISO on StefanB. Planning to reassess Feysal as well, since i see the same lack of engagement/comments on vote wagons in his recent posts.
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Post Post #1381 (isolation #23) » Mon Sep 03, 2012 9:39 pm

Post by kortul »

Shadow, if you really are town, you badly mistreated the role given to you. Yes, it is "Get Out of Jail Free" card, but not a reason to play like you did. You may hate me even more for such words, but they are true and you are experienced to know it, regardless of your alignment and whether you lie or not.

Whatever, a chance to get at least one read from such ability we can't afford to lose.

UNVOTE:

Will reread last 4 pages or so and decide on a vote. Hell, just realized that StefanB claimed as well - why now???

As for the DCL - if he is scum, claiming PR just gets him off hook for a day or two and possibly draws a counterclaim, and claiming VT either gets him off hook permanently or presents with an extra ultra shot for his faction. Both options are viable, depends on his role and experience. So whether you believe his claim or not should be emotional decision, not logical. And i fail when it comes down to emotional decisions...

Well, if he is telling the truth, then VT turning into one shot suicide vig is a better fate than being killed at night or lynched during a day. My choose is staying.
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Post Post #1385 (isolation #24) » Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:11 am

Post by kortul »

One hell of ISO -
StefanB
is posting without quotes at all, for context i had to open each post and look for possible questions he is answering or relevant posts he is addressing. And sometimes i just don't understand, what exactly he is trying to say, maybe because English isn't first language for both of us.

He gave some kind of short reads at the beginning of the day, but never returned to them, updated or tried to make a new list. I mean, you either used to make reads and update them, or you don't bother at all, maybe on request.
Strike that - i took a close look in thread before his post, and realized that regfan asked him for scum-reads.

I like that he easily admitted misunderstanding Dolorus Edd. Post 118 gives an impression of enthusiastic newbtown. Farther posts are not deep or confrontational, just flowing with a tide.

The reasons for vote in post 1150 are bad. I could understand him if he had at least some opinions on the slots (after quick ISO or something) and just couldn't decide, but not like this. He mentioned bvoigt once before, and had several negative posts on Salamance. It sounds like it didn't really matter whom to choose.

His next vote (Shadow) and choose (DCL) are consistent with his previous reads and comments.

His claim came out of nowhere, which is just crazy. One moment i can see this done by town, who believes he is at L-1 and gave up on fighting, but the next moment, since he was nowhere near hammer, i begin to think that scum could try this gambit, preemptively offing players from his wagon close to deadline.

I just can't read him for the sake of it. He is either an innocent child, or an opportunistic scum. Anyway, i am voting him, i am tired by this day and just scared to hear yet another PR claim so close to deadline, this time from bvoigt.

VOTE: StefanB

Unless someone i trust will swear that this is normal for Stefan and he is town, i will stick to this wagon or switch real close to deadline to avoid no-lynch.
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Post Post #1389 (isolation #25) » Tue Sep 04, 2012 3:44 am

Post by kortul »

In post 1386, Staeg wrote:I want kortul dead so bad ;_
Simple. Just shoot me at night, if you can, or build a case during the day if you cannot (maybe in process you will finally realize that you are wrong).
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Post Post #1408 (isolation #26) » Tue Sep 04, 2012 7:33 am

Post by kortul »

@
Jal
- your words about compromises and lynches are true, and you even apply this to your CHOOSE vote. Why do you hesitate to apply this to your vote in the VOTE section for several days?

DCLXVI wrote:The choose does not require a majority, so please don't vote me under the fallacy that doing so is better than a no-choose. If you think me and feysal are both town just don't choose either of us.
Unfortunately, it doesn't work this way.

In post 4, Eddard Stark wrote:
Assassin in the Snow:

<...>
A simple majority will lock in an assassin, however if there is no majority then the person with the most votes shall be chosen.
Should two or more people have the same number of votes then an assassin will be randomly determined.
I even checked with mod what would happen if we've choosen and lynched the same person - second in line will be choosen.
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Post Post #1410 (isolation #27) » Tue Sep 04, 2012 8:04 am

Post by kortul »

Longs time ago Starbuck claimed VT, recently SnowsStorm and greenknight claimed masons, DCLXVI claimed VT, Shadow1psc claimed Torturer (roleblocker+rolecop), and StefanB softclaimed VT.

I doubt it will help with reread, but may save time for ISOs.
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Post Post #1421 (isolation #28) » Tue Sep 04, 2012 10:28 am

Post by kortul »

In post 1380, StefanB wrote:So for my last words: Not yet. In a few hours.
I can only say sorry for inning and at last it would be good for Cersai at last (which should give away who I am)

And please don't give me a gun.

In post 1411, StefanB wrote:Kortul I will take care of that problem, I may not do it today, but will so after the lynch.
This slot shut be more readable tomorrow.
I won't do anythink now, because it would be a hell of unfairness towards someone else so short before deadline.
One moment you are resigned to die, and several hours later you are sure to be more readable and be able to do something on Day 2. That's the spirit.

On a more serious note that means that i don't really believe your claim now. You posted something 2 hours later, which means that your claim post wasn't the last chance to post during the day, and wagons don't grow on trees when there's night in US and deadline is nearly 2 days ahead. Though, do you, by chance, remember any other games where you've done the same in a similar situation?
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Post Post #1445 (isolation #29) » Tue Sep 04, 2012 6:52 pm

Post by kortul »

In post 1437, Minimum wrote:In
A Clash of Kings
, he made Sandor Clegane and Petyr Baelish townies (where town were the Starks), and Tyrion Lannister Mafia. (He also made Melisandre a fakeclaim.) But more likely,
he fucking gives scum fakeclaims.
EVERY SINGLE GAME, WITHOUT EXCEPTION.
So Stefan's softclaim is null at absolute best.

Furthermore, what the fuck? He hasn't actually 100% softclaimed Tyrion, anyway. It might be the language barrier.
Mina is correct - if our mod indeed gives fake claims without request, suspecting Stefan based just on RP part of the claim is wrong.

In post 1437, Minimum wrote:This is annoying.
I hate it when I suspect the lynch option(s) that hasn't claimed more than the lynch option who has claimed.
(Personally, I'd go bvoigt>Sapo>Stefan, but my other half would probably veto this order.) I also think Feysal is moderately more likely to be scum than DC now, too (although his long reads post seemed more genuine than the one he did in Court of the Gods on the verge of being lynched).
That's where my exact thoughts when i voted him, i tried to explain them, but Mina right here made it better. I just don't have a hydra partner to consult. Feysal thinks that i presented a case on Stefan - it wasn't a case, since i couldn't read him, it was my recollection of his ISO, with thoughts on what i like and what i don't like. I hoped that those who know Stefan better can help, apparently nobody is interested. Without the claim, when i made my post my vote would go to bvoigt, that's why i was frustrated with Stefan - with claim i see voting him as less damaging to the town. Iec also tried to explain it from a logical point of view, so at least someone understands that. After the last post from Stefan i am more content with my vote, but if i will have time at work i will meta read some of his recent games, just to be sure.
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Post Post #1539 (isolation #30) » Wed Sep 05, 2012 10:34 am

Post by kortul »

What a strange game. With 28 players and 2 hours before the deadline there are talks about no-lynch? What will we analyze tomorrow, if some lurkers will be killed at night?
And the great idea of flash lynching yet another player? Not enough claims for today?

I thought i would have to switch to bvoigt if needed, but with a vig claim it isn't necessary if this is multiball (more likely), or if he is telling the truth. My vote stays. I already told that i don't believe Stefan VT claim anymore, but even if i am wrong, i don't want a repeat of day 1 tomorrow and will say sorry to him after the game, and explain again why i don't believe him. I do hope that there are enough sane players there to vote.

I am tired and off to sleep. If i won't survive through the night, i believe in mason claims (i already explained that greenknight accepting the vig would be more logical if he were scum, imho) and Shadow role (not alignment).
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Post Post #1656 (isolation #31) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:33 pm

Post by kortul »

Based on the flavor of the night events, DCLXVI killed one of the masons. If it is multiball, Stannis Faction should be ok with killing only one of supposed masons - if he flips scum, his partner will be lynched during the day, no need to waste the shot - therefore it is more likely that green was killed by another scum faction then. But, if this isn't multiball, than scum knew that the claim was true, and once one mason flips the other would be conftown and have to be killed sooner or later, so killing him was obvious thing. Which means we have to figure out - is this a multiball after all?

DCLXVI is of Stannis Faction.
Those who've read the book, was it the main faction against Llanister alliance?
Also, since BBmola "recieved a letter from someone, it says that Aegon Targaryen's forces are split up so that some do not know who the others are." - was Aegon Targaryen in any way connected with a Stannis Faction?

Shadow claims that bvoigt has no active role, ie he isn't vig. Good, at least this day will give away no extra claims to the scum for a change. Hmm, wait, Shadow claimed he will roleblock/check bvoigt before the night. So, if bvoigt was in DCLXVI faction, DCLXVI main priority would be strongkill Shadow to prevent him from spilling the results of his check on bvoigt. That means, that most likely bvoigt is from a different faction, and this IS multiball. Also, that means that bvoigt faction should be trying to kill Shadow at night, and failed, which is good. (well, there's crazy scenario when Shadow just buys towncred with giving away his partner, but that makes sense only if this isn't multiball, and even then Shadow lives until all the flips prove his words, so chances are real low).

VOTE: bvoigt

Will continue comments and thoughts in the next post while reading through the rest of the pages - doubt there would be new information on the setup later on, so want to separate the posts - just took a look on the vote count to make sure i am not hammering or something.
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Post Post #1657 (isolation #32) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:39 pm

Post by kortul »

No quicklynch is fine with me, as long as there would be something to discuss and the posts will be informative. It can also give time for those who are not caught with the rest to finish their rereads, and for lurkers to finally come forth and give their thoughts and reads.

In post 1605, Tyene Sand wrote:Unless you're claiming that I jumped off a mason
onto my scumbuddy
and pushed that wagon until the end (which was a wagon I had been supportive of
from the beginning due to redFF
, I have no idea how you think it makes sense for me to be scum at this stage.
If Zdenek is thinking in terms of multiball, he can see such scenario. Though, he forgot to mention that this was when green claimed mason, so hopping off wagon was nomal. And relation tells with someone of unknown alignment can be useful later, not a base for any strong suspicion now, unless you are not on wagon of your main scum suspect or something.

@Zdenek, i am curious, how do you read the thread? Your comment one thing, than in some later posts comment things that happened earlier. Ie do you reread several times, or are you doing ISOs, or is it something completely different?

BBmola is playing his own little game, since his ability claim doesn't indicate an alignment.
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Post Post #1658 (isolation #33) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 10:40 pm

Post by kortul »

In post 1623, Shinori wrote:No I think I actually have info that potentially pegs someone as scum along with BVO. It could implicate bvo as town though but it's also something I don't fele at liberty to discuss because it could just be more beneficial to scum than town.

In post 1640, Shinori wrote:Frankly if people want me to out infos i could. It could just be really bad though. so I'm waffling on it.
Shinori
, if you tell this tomorrow, will it be more beneficial to the town and less useful to scum? If yes, and you don't really want to spill it out today, you can ask us to put you in a jail (with PM votes) for the night. With vague descriptions you are the only person who can decide on the best course of actions (assuming, you are town, of course).

Will be mostly L/A over weekened, will check DCL and bvoigt ISO. Outside interactions and stances will check when i will have time online, since it means searching through separate ISOs.
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Post Post #1723 (isolation #34) » Sun Sep 09, 2012 8:32 am

Post by kortul »

Just ISOing DCL wasn't exactly productive - he posted not much content. Also, i think that after almost no vote changes after his VT claim, he realized that the fight is over, so analyzing the rest of his posts is too WIFOM for me. I already see the discussions on the interpretations whether something is distancing or not.

When DCL entered the game, obviously he wasn't aware that he is going to die soon, so he made posts planning on a long game. So why DCL was comfortable to make a quick choice between Feysal and greenknight in CHOOSE section, but for some reason ignored most bigger VOTE wagons and decided to make an obviously strange vote on Jal, saying that he is aware that he is joining two of the bigger wagons? I checked the only other game where he replaced in as a scum, and while the content he posted was MUCH more solid there, his first vote was placed on his partner, and he was sitting on it for the rest of the day, and the following day as well (though, before placing his vote he made several relevant comments in catch-up, and others actually followed him based on that mini-case). While in our game he was more on the lurking side, there's a chance that his first intentions here are the same, maybe on subconsious level.

Since English isn't my first language, i am also curious - is there anything that hints that "Dolorus Edd" has to be addressed as "she"? DCL did that even after being corrected.


Back to what happened today. I liked several Pless posts today - his analysis is good, and he is asking relevant questions, not just nitpicking. I also mostly like the catch-up content from Zdenek, finally that slot got a replacement who is working to see the whole picture.

In post 1720, Jal wrote:Also, for someone who apparently went through my ISO, you would have seen
In post 1200, Jal wrote:I'm going to take the advice someone gave to another and just ISO the top wagons.

Which is why I went through and gave a read on both him and Feysal at the time. There's 28 people in the game. Guess how many people I have yet to mention before?
Jal
, so why did you decide to ISO choose wagons, where reaching 15 votes wasn't necessary, over ISO-ing vote wagons, where your vote were more important?

Magua - short answer to your unspoken question is that yesterday Shadow1psc claimed to be roleblocker/rolecop, and bvoigt - odd-day vig. And in the morning Shadow claimed that he found no active abilities on bvoigt. Lying in this case makes little sense, so unless Shadow is sacrificing himself just to get rid of bvoigt during the day, bvoigt claim was fake, he is on a way to lynch, and there's time for analyzing wagons and interactions, allowing replacements to catch-up, lurkers to come forward, discussions and some slow pondering on how to use PM jailing.
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Post Post #1726 (isolation #35) » Sun Sep 09, 2012 8:46 am

Post by kortul »

Since i proposed the idea, i am ok with Shinori request, obviously. That gives us the perfect way to preserve the information he got until tomorrow.
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Post Post #1730 (isolation #36) » Sun Sep 09, 2012 9:59 am

Post by kortul »

Well, Tyene, we have no idea what exactly Shinori is talking about, so i have just two practical questions.

First, how do you propose to force him to talk? (aside from obvious "we won't jail you")

And second, if we will act on results tomorrow, isn't it better to hear them tomorrow, to prevent scum from possible discussions on this information during the night, and from altering their night actions based on the information.

Though, Shinori, if your information may be important for town roles to do something this night, maybe think again about revealing it.
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Post Post #1767 (isolation #37) » Sun Sep 09, 2012 9:14 pm

Post by kortul »

Saporeint, i would like to hear the whole explanation, once you will clear it with the mod. And on day 2. Though, for now i fail to see what discussion can lead to this question from town. Still, if you are town, there would be at least two scum parties on you anyway, so there's no reason to hide the information.

Edd, BBmola, are you in a hurry? I think we should hear Saporeint story today. And also give those MIA time to pick up their prods (in case more replacements will be needed), and if there are no more strong objections on jailing Shinori, allow a day or two for everyone to actually send their jail PM votes. Bvoigt wagon isn't going to run away.
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Post Post #1782 (isolation #38) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 3:29 am

Post by kortul »

That was a lot of solid work from Pless. My town read on him improved. I am not going to argue with his views, since the interpretations are based on the initial reaction, experience, previous interactions and games, matching style of play and logic, etc, so if we both will be alive as the game progresses, with time his understanding of me should improve.

Pless, just don't forget that i replaced in and was rereading until the end of Day 1, that's why there were no previous discussions on most of the players, until i started doing the ISO's on those with wagons, in a middle of reread.
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Post Post #1793 (isolation #39) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:20 am

Post by kortul »

In post 1786, Saporerint wrote:Yesterday Faraday encouraged me to PM him whatever I would post first, and he'd OK'd this by morning:

1. After seeing Shadow's claim, I asked the Mod for clarification of one of our abilit(ies).
By yesterday do you mean the day 1, or Sunday? Ie which of Shadow claims prompted you to ask mod for clarification (and, most important, why?)?
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Post Post #1803 (isolation #40) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:18 am

Post by kortul »

Well, last answer from Saporeint doesn't explain anything for me. I hate losing confidence in my reads, and was mulling on possible scenarios for some time, but still don't see good town explanation. Guess, he is scum after all, unless his full claim will suddenly make sense and shed a light on his intentions.

Off to sleep. Tomorrow, while we have time, i will start on slowly sorting my reads and crosscheck their interactions with DCL and bvoigt. And after thinking about it Shadow idea of jail candidates with Shinori among them has some merit, at least it improves chances of scum taking gamble and fail, or just go on more easy targets. Though i don't think Shadow himself should be on the list of candidates.
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Post Post #1816 (isolation #41) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 9:14 pm

Post by kortul »

Jal, your presentation of several of my reads is not even close. Vote does not equal scum read, and you yourself said good words about compromises on day 1. If it wasn't intentional and you were just skimming at that moment and all of this is from memory, then take another look. And i have two questions.

In post 1805, Jal wrote:
In post 1723, kortul wrote:Jal, so why did you decide to ISO choose wagons, where reaching 15 votes wasn't necessary, over ISO-ing vote wagons, where your vote were more important?

At the time I thought choose votes had to be locked in order to count prior to a lynch going through, so my choose was more important for me to get down first before a lynch. Realized I was wrong sometime right before DCL was locked in, but it didn't matter much. I did ISO some of the largest votes, which is indicated by my big "Sap is scummy" post post 1285, and indicated I wasn't entirely onboard with scum-Bvoight.

Actually, the only reason I really even thought Bvoight could be scum was due to Benmage's heroic post 1241 wherein he either shows how people on Bvoight's wagon are scummy or their intentions are misplaced in an attempt to gain momentum for the Shadow wagon. I've seen scum pull-out all the cards for a scum buddy before. At the time, the Sap wagon was also relatively large, but he doesn't do the same call-out to them or any on that bandwagon. If Bvoight flips scum, Benmage jumps to the high-end of my scum list.
In the post 1285, that you mentioned, Sapo was scummy for you (even more then his predecessor), you commented that "There's a 75% chance I won't be riding the Shadow gravy train today. Apologies.", and you didn't give your opinion on bvoigt, and their wagons were close (6, 8, 8). You suspected Benmage of pulling people towards Shadow wagon, and thought that Sapo is scum, made a big post of it, isn't it a perfect time for a push and vote placement?

And a second question. Is Saporeint still you scum read? Because after that big post you forgot him for the rest of the day 1 and day 2.
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Post Post #1832 (isolation #42) » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:16 am

Post by kortul »

Vote sent.
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Post Post #1838 (isolation #43) » Tue Sep 11, 2012 8:58 am

Post by kortul »

In post 1835, Plessiezarus wrote:The bolded seems like a really weird choice of words. "Based on the flavor"? DCLXVI was
scum
, had an
unstoppable kill
and
nobody else died last night except the masons
. Why do you need to consider the
flavour
to work out that DCL killed one of the masons?
Pless, i am methodical, and i am taking notes along with my reading, it helps to remember details. The day started with a long flavour text for night events, several names where mentioned there, and from the flips after the scene i understood that both character names were in that flavour, so i made a note that "Based on the flavor of the night events, DCL killed Snowstorm", at that moment i thought that it may be important. Then i began to look at all this from different angles, trying to figure out why both masons were dead, and whether this can help us to determine is it multiball or not. Since the fact that SnowStorm was mason is more relevant for the logic than his name, i changed his name in my post draft to the "one of the masons", it was easier than operating with mason names later on.
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Post Post #1840 (isolation #44) » Tue Sep 11, 2012 9:13 am

Post by kortul »

Pless, is there something in particular that you think was a town tell for Starbuck? Or was your read improvement based on something else? I was doing her ISO recently, and your impressions may help to read her (or understand you) better.
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Post Post #1861 (isolation #45) » Tue Sep 11, 2012 11:25 pm

Post by kortul »

In post 1848, Jal wrote:
In post 1816, kortul wrote:Jal, your presentation of several of my reads is not even close. Vote does not equal scum read, and you yourself said good words about compromises on day 1. If it wasn't intentional and you were just skimming at that moment and all of this is from memory, then take another look. And i have two questions.

So, which do you think are not presented accurately?
You are right about SnowStorm, Shadow1psc, DCL and Salamance - i considered them as scum or leaning scum after the ISOs. greenknight was a compromise choose. I coudn't read StefanB, so initially voted him as a compromise vote as well, though after he posted later during the same day, i changed my mind about his claim and was more sure in my vote. And you somehow put bvoigt into my town reads, and he never was.

In post 1848, Jal wrote:By the way, I wanted your opinion about what I said regarding Benmage and his pulling off Bvoigt's wagon. What are your thoughts?
Benmage, let's see. He coudln't decide on wagons once the Snow claimed mason, and from his comments, wasn't happy with current wagons. We were slowly approaching deadline, and On Thursday (1087) he was ready to "lynch bvoigt or sala I dont care at this point." He was all over the place, but it didn't look artificial. And then deadline was extended. He still was jungling votes, but this time i agreed with him, since i wasn't happy with existing wagons either, they were stuck anyway, so with extended deadline there was enough time to look for alternatives.

1147 (Fri): I think a lot of people on the Sala wagon view Bvoigt town... and a lot on the Bvoigt wagon view Sala town. Shit I got a town read on Bvoigt... and I need to relook at Sala but had a town read there too..
1161 (Fri): Unvote vote Bvoigt I guess him over Sala... Sala's post of YES UNDERstAND ME screams town to me.... zzzzzzz.. still think bvoigts town too tho...
1179 (Sat): I'd prefer Shadow over either of these 2. Unvote vote Shadow
1220 (Sun): The icecrint lynch is shattering... and Bvoigt is town. There's plenty of time before deadline, if you think we won't achieve a lynch you're paranoid.

In 1241, that you mentioned, Benmage didn't just called bvoigt wagon bad and asked everyone to vote Shadow. He gave his understanding of why each player was on bvoigt wagon. If he gave false reasons or misrepresented them, that would just reinforce bvoigt wagon, bring attention to Benmage and he would be blamed for misrepresentations. I checked all the players: Nacho switched his vote, green and Snow didn't react, Dolorus Edd switched his vote in the next post, Tyene switched her vote, Pandora didn't want to switch to Shadow, MoI switched his vote, Seraphim disappeared, StefanB switched his vote. So they didn't argue with his understanding of the reasons for vote.

So, my answer is - i like Benmage play in that situation. It is consistent with his previous posts and behavior, he didn't misrepresent or lie about anything, and he pushed a wagon on my suspect over those i wasn't happy about. Yes, it can be interpreted as scummy (hell, after reading opinions of Pless and Plums about me today i feel that any phrase or post can be interpreted as scummy), but i think it was a town action on his part.
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Post Post #1862 (isolation #46) » Wed Sep 12, 2012 12:21 am

Post by kortul »

In post 1853, Plums Yo Mamma wrote:
In post 1767, kortul wrote:Saporeint, i would like to hear the whole explanation, once you will clear it with the mod. And on day 2. Though, for now i fail to see what discussion can lead to this question from town. Still, if you are town, there would be at least two scum parties on you anyway, so there's no reason to hide the information.

Edd, BBmola, are you in a hurry? I think we should hear Saporeint story today. And also give those MIA time to pick up their prods (in case more replacements will be needed), and if there are no more strong objections on jailing Shinori, allow a day or two for everyone to actually send their jail PM votes. Bvoigt wagon isn't going to run away.

This whole post reeks (pun not initially intended) of over-concillatory, artificial reaction to what happened with Saporient's post. It feels like Sapo has absolutely no idea how to deal with what many other players are treating as a sort of scumslip. He's very careful to say that he does want the explanation and we should hear it. He's also super careful to appear to think that Saporient probably doesn't have an explanation that can explain why this happened.
Pless+Zar is worthy of serious attention. Basically, none of this feels right. If Kortul scum, Saporient is not aligned with him. I don't feel uncomfortable giving Saporient the benefit of the doubt for the nonce, as it happens.
At least i learned new words while reading this comment. Because the content itself is nuts, like you were reading and thinking on something else but decided to quote me. I wrote a simple question to Saporeint, saying what i want to hear and why. Period. If i didn't come to immediate conclusion that Sapo is scum and asked a question instead, that's how i play. And it is more clear than yours "I don't feel uncomfortable giving Saporient the benefit of the doubt for the nonce, as it happens".

P.S. And what Pless+Zar has to do with it?
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Post Post #1929 (isolation #47) » Thu Sep 13, 2012 12:20 am

Post by kortul »

I am glad that we have no-brainer day 2, since if it were anything resembling day 1 i would fall far behind. We have a period of reports and budget planning, and that is much more important. I also realized that my audit style language may crawl into my posts whenever i am making quick posts from work, can't help it. Slowly updating my reads in the evenings, more than half done.

Shinori, are you still playing as a hydra? I didn't notice any visible difference in your posts, and you always use "I", never "we".
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Post Post #2030 (isolation #48) » Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:29 am

Post by kortul »

New mechanics each day, excellent work by mod. It gives us new opportunities each time. So, my thoughts about Godhand. It sounds cool, but the delay is too long.

Alignment is revealed at the
end
of Day 5. This is the beginning of Day 3, and we have 21 player currently alive. So far we are losing 3-4 players per day/night cycle, and if we won't somehow eliminate a faction or get lucky with protective actions, this will continue. At the beginning of Day 4 we will most likely have 17 (+-1) players, Day 5 - 13-14, Day 6 - 9-11. That's 10+ players dead. Basicly we are choosing someone, who we want to see in MyLo/LyLo if he is town, and want to be sure that if he survives he
IS
town.

I hope we want to improve the chances of not wasting the reveal alignment part,
so choosing a player who is likely to be wagoned before the Day 6 is bad idea
. Also, protection for a night 4 is needed, and for future nights if he will be revealed as town.

As for ultimate protection for a Night 3 - if we are serious about using Godhand to full potential, this is just a passive bonus.

In post 1976, Lyanna Stark wrote:You think has a chance to either alignment but are unlikely to be night killed or lynched and could be a danger in lylo?
This would be a perfect candidate, but so far i don't see, how those who are inlikely to by lynched can be also unlikely to be killed, that's counter-intuitive.

Since i don't know who is real good player in endgame situations, i am ok with choosing for godhand those, whom i've seen in action in other games - MoI, Tyene, Magua. I view Regfan as town anyway, so may agree to godhand him just for the sake of one night protection.

Dolorus Edd role makes sense for a town role, and even if it was given to scum somehow, this is multiball - let scum worry about it.

*sigh* Call me stupid, but from his initial comment ("because of weird stuff i got in my pm last night") i assumed that Shinori got PM similar to what BBmola mentioned on Day 1, and that he just couldn't decide whether to reveal it or not. Not revealing seemed to be more beneficial to a town, if scum can't find their buddies. After his claim today as a strange tracker, i am frustrated. While such eagerness on Day 2 makes him more likely to be town in my eyes, that comment on day 2 wasn't needed at all, since the lynch was already obvious, and he could have spent night 2 for another track...
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Post Post #2031 (isolation #49) » Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:57 am

Post by kortul »

There are two things that i don't like about Staeg claim.

After day 1 we had two claimed Freys, both masons. If Staeg is Frey cop, why he decided to ignore them, and not use an ability where it could be useful to town? And why investigate Regfan, who suspected both of them and couldn't be yet another Frey mason? Moreover, there was little chance that Regfan would be wagoned and forced to claim anytime soon, so how the information that he isn't Frey would help Staeg to get a better read on Regfan?

And second, if Freys are the allies of Lannisters, why town will be given cop power of revealing Freys, and not the family aligned with one of the scum factions? I may be wrong about this one, though, and this may be usual thing -
those familiar with theme games on site, does it make any sense?
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Post Post #2032 (isolation #50) » Sun Sep 16, 2012 6:05 am

Post by kortul »

I have a question to those familiar with a book - was Stannis faction there strong? It isn't related to today discussion, just noticed something while doing ISO's, and the answer to my question may be relevant for a better read.
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Post Post #2037 (isolation #51) » Sun Sep 16, 2012 6:28 am

Post by kortul »

Lyanna, i wasn't questioning you - on the contrary, i commented to show how the ideal candidate looks like, it is just hard to find such.

@Staeg - so if you found Regfan to be Frey, what would you do? Just trying to understand your logic.
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Post Post #2058 (isolation #52) » Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:36 pm

Post by kortul »

Ok, if Staeg is scum, even though there was lot of time to prepare a fake claim with the help of mod, there is still a good chance that he had to improvise today. Regular watcher/tracker roles don't give information about the action performed. So, if there was a fake claim of not investigative type, once Shinori revealed what he saw (instead of demanding the rest of the claim first, like he should), the real role had to be revealed.

Ie,
i think that Staeg told us his real role
, regardless of his alignment (if he is town, he had no reason to lie, and if he is scum, he had to adapt to Shinori observations). Another reason, why i think so, was his stance on Starbuck claim, he wanted to hear the name as well, and that is consistent with the role claimed now.

I did a small research of my own in the internet regarding Wyman Manderly. The most clear description of his part in Dance of the Dragons i found on a wiki.

Spoiler: Contains plot details
Despite the fact that House Manderly told Cersei that they executed Davos Seaworth on her orders when he arrived in White Harbor, this is revealed to be a lie. Lord
Wyman Manderly
had Davos dragged away in view of representatives from House Frey, but then secretly placed him in gentle imprisonment.
It is implied that when the ruse is complete, after the Freys send letters to Cersei stating that Davos is dead, the Manderlys execute the Freys.
Lord Wyman explains to Davos that the
Manderlys and other Northern vassals intend to feign submission to the Boltons, Freys, and Lannisters while plotting their revenge.
Wyman informs Davos that he has discovered that Osha the wildling took Rickon Stark to hide on the remote island of Skagos, which is inhabited by fierce clans who only hold nominal allegiance to the North. Wyman explains to Davos that they are in need of a skilled smuggler to obtain Rickon, and that
once the Northern bannermen see that a male Stark heir still lives, they will rally against the Boltons and join Stannis' cause.
Those who read the book, if, according to Staeg, events happen at the beginning of the plot, what was the stance of Wyman Manderly towards Freys at that time?

In post 2040, Staeg wrote:If I found Regfan to be a Frey, I'd consider him to be "gut town" and slightly more likely to be town.
Staeg, why would you consider him to be "gut town", if in 2036 you said, that until the flip of masons you considered Frey as scum, and not sure even now?

In post 2036, Staeg wrote:The thing is, when I got my role, I immediately went "well, the freys don't actually LIKE the lannisters, so I guess they could maybe be scum?" This kinda waned when I saw the Walder twins flip town, but those two were just kids; they didn't have any clue of what's going on in the game of thrones.

In fact, anyone more apt than me in these things, which side did the Freys choose during Robert's Rebellion?
So, one more time - why did you check Regfan, if you had no idea how to interpret the results? You had the perfect opportunity to ask the bolded question when Snow claimed mason, it would be natural question, not giving away your role, and providing you a better understanding of the future investigation results.


We should finish this Duel first. If Saporeint is town, he missed his chance to claim yesterday, even after two not really subtle hints from Dolorus. The selfwatcher role he claimed isn't something worth hiding for another night, especially once he wrote that he has no active abilities, so scum factions had no reasons killing/investigating him at night. At least, since this is duel, he can give his final thoughts and reads, if this claim is true.
HURT: Sapo
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Post Post #2101 (isolation #53) » Mon Sep 17, 2012 9:04 am

Post by kortul »

MoI, combined with information from BBmola, i think Informed means that Sapo knew his teammates.

In post 1307, BBmolla wrote:So apparently I recieved a letter from someone, it says that Aegon Targaryen's forces are split up so that
some do not know who the others are.

In post 2095, Eddard Stark wrote:
Saporerint - Varys - *Informed Goon and member of the
Aegon Faction
lost the trial by combat on Day 3.

*Informed means he had information about another player(s) role.


I got strong allergic reaction atm, so not fit to do any serious reading right now, eyes are closing. Will do my own reread of Sapo/Sala tomorrow.

I already gave my godhand thoughts and candidates, may also agree on sheeping regfan, if he knows the current pool of players better.
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Post Post #2126 (isolation #54) » Mon Sep 17, 2012 11:29 pm

Post by kortul »

@
Feysal
, can you explain what are your reasons to think that "Plumamma's case on bvoigt already makes them very probable town", with the knowledge that this is multiball (and there's chance that some members of Aegon faction don't know each other)?

@
Ja
l, if Dolorus Edd were regular vig and just killed Sapo at night, would you question that decision? If yes, why? And if not, why do you question his duel decision?

In post 2122, Staeg wrote:And another thing: are we agreed that I have something that investigates stuff (aka do you think that me and shinori aren't buddies, and even if we are, it goes a bit further)? This goes to everyone.
Staeg
, what prompted you to ask this question (particularly the second part of it)?


Will think on Regfan post again when i finish my own reading, though the conclusions rely on whether Aegon members know each other or not.
Were there any games on mafiascum where faction operated without knowing each other?
I assumed that happened before, since nobody really questioned that part on a previous days, but if it is unheard of, and this interpretation may be wrong, then it changes the logic of interaction analysis.
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Post Post #2129 (isolation #55) » Tue Sep 18, 2012 2:11 am

Post by kortul »

Decided to check bvoigt first, to see if there is something that hints that he knew that Salamence/Saporeint were his partner. I got an impression that he had that knowledge, since while Salamence was his strong scum read, boivgt never questioned him or addressed directly, only in the third person. He communicated with other players he suspected, but never with Sala, so wasn't really interested in getting better read on him. After Saporeint replaced Salamence, bvoigt actually asked him a direct question once, but it was about Feysal and DCX, not about Saporeint himself.

There was one other player, whom he addressed a lot, but always in the third person - Starbuck. Though, she was his townread whom he sometimes defended, so that stance seem to be more natural. I checked Starbuck, just in case - but she never mentioned bvoigt or Sala/Sapo.

Guess, Regfan is right and Aegon members knew each other. Will continue reading based on this assumption.

@MoI - is your comment in 525 in any way related to Staeg, by chance?
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Post Post #2160 (isolation #56) » Tue Sep 18, 2012 10:02 pm

Post by kortul »

My thoughts after the reread of bvoigt, Salamence, Saporeint, some ISO's on those voting them and protecting them, and the reread of events of Day 1 since the Plum case (and first vote) on bvoigt.

If all Aegon members know each other
, then Starbuck and Mockingjaye best fit as possible Aegon members.

Starbuck.
Saporeint in 1186 comes with town read on her, but his wording is pretty vague - "Somehow I come away thinking she's likely town, though -- this is too much like asking for it to come from scum." It also leaves him room to invert this read later, if needed. I already told about certain similarities of bvoigt comments on Starbuck and Sala/Sapo, it cannot be intentional, but if they were both his partners, this could be subconscious thing. And she ignored both slots and their wagons.

Mockingjaye
(11 posts total, so less sure about her). There were no interactions, no opinions from bvoigt and Sapo on her, and she managed to avoid them as well, concentrating on her own targets. At the end of Day 1 she appeared whenever there was an alternative wagon.

Less likely fit, but still possible are BBmola and Jal. While BBmola was consistent in his scum read on Sala/Sapo, he insisted that "This Bvoigt lynch is awful and pushed by scum.", yet made no serious attempts to defend bvoigt or recruit more votes for Sala wagon. Both Sala and Sapo had him as town read. As for Jal, i don't like that he made no attempt to vote (push) Sapo wagon when he thought that Sapo is scum (maybe that's just a difference in our approach to the game and he really believed that wagon was dying), and delayed with bvoigt read until the last moment.

If not all Aegon members know each other
, then i can also see Plums Yo Mamma as possible Aegon member. Their stance on Salamence was peculiar. In 1085 they say, that "would be more than happy with 2 of {Sala, Bvoigt, greenknight} offed today.", and in the same post "Sala must show up. Dammit.", which means that their read isn't as strong as they claim it to be (and later references to Sala prove that). After the replacement the only mentioning of the slot on day 1 was "saporint hydra is already obvtown, which is pretty cool."

After the day 2 slip from Sapo Plum said that "sapo is scum, yeah." (1758), but then were against full claim on day 2 in 1772, and finished with "I don't feel uncomfortable giving Saporient the benefit of the doubt for the nonce, as it happens." (1853). It feels like an attempt to give the partner time to come up with a decent explanation, at the same time claiming suspicion.

Sapo on Day 1 was "I think Plum's case on bvoight was a misrepresentation", yet Plum never made it to his scum read. And, Sapo tied his flip to someone else - "If Plum ever flips scum, I would look extra hard at Hyperion/Shinori".

On the other hand, Plum case and stance on bvoigt look natural through all the game, so if Aegon members know each other, then Plum is unlikely to be in that faction, imho. Since Plum is the most likely candidate to be subjected to Victarion's awesomeness today, guess the point is moot and his alignment will be known without setup guesses. Still, i want this godhand thing to be completed first, to understand whether i can rely that Plum alignment will be known and ignore these suspicions.
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Post Post #2161 (isolation #57) » Tue Sep 18, 2012 10:08 pm

Post by kortul »

To continue MoI work i will update current unofficial godhand vote. Since my candidates are not popular choices, i don't mind clearing my suspicions of Plum via godhand, or join the company on Minimum.

GODHAND PSUEDO VOTE COUNT


MoI (5) – MoI, Pandora, kortul, Mjaye, MoS
Tyene (6) – MoI, kortul, Zdenek, Plum, MoS, Lyana
Plum [2](12) – MoI, Pandora, Minimum, Staeg, Plum, Dol Edd, BBMolla, Mjaye,
Regfan
, Lyana, MoS, kortul

Magua (7) – MoI, Pandora, kortul, Zdenek, Plum, Mjaye, Lyana
Regfan (2) – MoI, Mjaye
Benmage (7) – MoI, Pandora, Dol Edd, Zdenek, Plum, MJaye, Lyana
MoS (7) – MoI, Pandora, Minimum, Regfan, Plum, MJaye, Lyana
Minimum (10) - MoI, Pandora, Dol Edd, Zdenek, Plum, Jal, Feysal, BBMolla,
Regfan
, kortul

Feysal (2) – Lyana, MoS

No Current Preference – Tyene, Shinori, Scumhunter

It takes 11 Godhands to finalize the event for everyone but Plum.
Plum takes 9 Godhands since Benmage and Magua has already voted.
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Post Post #2162 (isolation #58) » Tue Sep 18, 2012 10:42 pm

Post by kortul »

@Staeg - when you said "I'll probably answer kortul's question later", did you mean "probably answer" or "probably later"? Because my answer to your first part was in my previous posts already, and i want to understand the second part, since you believe they are logically connected.
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Post Post #2173 (isolation #59) » Wed Sep 19, 2012 6:09 am

Post by kortul »

GODHAND: Plum's Yo Mamma
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Post Post #2193 (isolation #60) » Wed Sep 19, 2012 9:28 am

Post by kortul »

In post 2174, BBmolla wrote:Kortul is scum too. He's theorizing about the Aegon not being split up which is just retarded and an attempt to look busy. Why would I make that up if I was scum? What benefit does that have? Or why would
someone
send a letter with fake information like that?
:roll: Have you tried carefully reading before this burst? Like beginning from mine post 2101? Until Regfan in 2124 said that scum faction has to have communications and know each other, i was sure that Aegon are split. Now we have two different opinions on whether it is possible or not, so i have to analyze interactions based on one assumption first, then on another. If you know the answer to my question in post 2126, i am listening. Why are you so agitated? Where did you get an idea that i think you made this up? And by
someone
you mean our mod?
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Post Post #2240 (isolation #61) » Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:04 am

Post by kortul »

I do not like the quicklynch as well. We are just cutting the interactions in a middle of a day. Regardless of Staeg alignment, what will we learn from this chop... chop... chop... hammer? And lurkers now have an excuse for another extended period of doing nothing; if Shinori is scum we just gave him an opportunity to consult his partners, and so on.

Staeg, if you are still around and are town, you still have time to answer the question.
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Post Post #2297 (isolation #62) » Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:22 am

Post by kortul »

@
Shinori
, i'd like to hear more about your thought process and conclusions.

During day 1 Staeg was your town read(750), then changed to scum read (1185), partially meta based (1413). You checked your scum read at night, and found out that he "performed an investigative role on N1" (1992). In 1623 you said "I think I actually have info that potentially pegs someone as scum along with BVO. It could implicate bvo as town though".
How your investigation was connected with bvoigt?
In 1992 you said "I'm the type of tracker thing that tracks a person and learns what they did that night but not to who they did it to."
What exactly do you learn? The name of the ability that was used, or just the type (ivestigative, protective, etc)?


In post 2249, Shinori wrote:I jumped to conclusions and thought scum role cop
along with something I can't quite say cause rules
, it seemed like he was following his scum meta to me partially. That and his play and connections/reactions didn't look good to me. So I thought he was scum. I pushed what I thought was scum.
What was that part about rules?

And can you elaborate on meta part, you mentioned it twice, on Day 1 and Day 3.
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Post Post #2298 (isolation #63) » Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:57 am

Post by kortul »

Thought about Greyscale - essentially it is a delayed lynch, that also makes someone a doublevoter in process (and we can't control the second part as well).
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Post Post #2313 (isolation #64) » Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:13 pm

Post by kortul »

Shinori, while you are trying to get your thoughts straightened up, please think on my questions as well. Since you several times mentioned "investigative role", guess the answer to my second question is clear, but the rest are still open.
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Post Post #2354 (isolation #65) » Tue Sep 25, 2012 9:49 am

Post by kortul »

Shinori answers are enough for me, i am more certain now in my town read on him.

Overall, this game is frustrating. I don't have strong scum reads anymore, and only few strong town reads. Guess that's specifics of multiball, because scum have to search for rivals so look more townish, and town try to blend more than usual to avoid multiple night kills. I didn't reveal my reads since the day 1 to get nonbiased answers to my questions and to see who would be inclined to paint me as scummy or call town, and how sincere would be those pictures. But i feel uncomfortable being closed for so long, so will go over my reads, add comments and post them tomorrow.

@Jal
, what prompted you to think that Shinori checked Minimum last night?

@4nx
- the answer to godhand is basicly what Lyanna said. And i think Jal was referring to post 1848, not 2144. And what is your approach to reading the game atm?

On day 3 i did a quick look at finished games of Scumhunter - he can actually scumhunt if he wants to, and i was willing to wait to find out whether he will make some efforts in this game as well without being asked. Yesterday i thought it happened, but a day passed and catching up is still a promise. Since Starbuck is also the best fit as possible member of at least one faction (Aegon), my vote goes here.

VOTE: Scumhunter
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Post Post #2361 (isolation #66) » Tue Sep 25, 2012 11:56 pm

Post by kortul »

While i am doing some ISOs to try and get a better understanding on my null reads, i want to tell my thoughts on Shinori to Lyanna, pandora, or anyone else who can't read him.

I think that Shinori is town not because of him becoming a hydra for some time, but because of his claim. He told the nature of Staeg role before Staeg himself revealed it, which means that this part of his claim is true. Let's look at it from a motivation angle. If Shinori is scum, what is his motivation to reveal his own role so early? His faction gains nothing from this, he himself would hardly get town cred if Staeg would claim/flip more powerful town investigative role (quite the opposite), and he paints a big target on himself, since rival faction should realize that he can stumble on their members any night, and preemptively kill him at night not really caring about his alignment. Without the claim he could tell the results to his faction, for a better night kills or lynches (if he finds a rival who is an easy lynch target, to get a town cred from a lynch while hurting another faction).

At the same time after gathering all his answers together, i can see him doing what he did (even if i think this was incompetent) as a town. If i am wrong, and this is some strange scum gambit anyway, we will learn this soon enough - i don't believe that he will be allowed to live for a long time.
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Post Post #2381 (isolation #67) » Wed Sep 26, 2012 11:16 am

Post by kortul »

Going through ISOs takes more time than i thought, so hopefully will finish tomorrow, eyes are closing. And reading conversations between Lyanna and Jal lately is like climbing a mountain...

@Zdenek
, you were focused on Tyene before, why today did you vote Minimum instead, without actually asking her anything or telling us why do you think she is a good lynch? And another question, why do you find reading mockingjaye painful?
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Post Post #2394 (isolation #68) » Thu Sep 27, 2012 2:54 am

Post by kortul »

I am done with ISOs for now, and improved or changed some reads.

Regfan
- remains my strong town read. There was a moment of doubt at the beginning of Day 2, when he posted clarification that jail votes will be public, but after some thinking over I decided that it isn't a scum tell.

Shinori
- Not much of a presence and cryptic Day 2, but his claim is what persuaded me that he is town (explained why earlier). Will reassess soon after thinking on Pandora points.

Pandora (Shadoweh/Quilford)
- leaning town. His play on day 1 was good, and all three flipped scum were actually in his Scum pile in 1136 (even though Sapo later made it back to town). Days 2 and 3 were more quiet, but the days itself weren't exactly intense.

Minimum (Mina/CES)
- leaning town. I had some doubts now and then, but overall impression is town, and i don't see them fit with any faction so far. The defence of StefanB was sincere (and in multiball it IS close to a town tell), they actually read the meta on DCL since in 1328 came to the same conclusions as me.

Lyanna Stark
- leaning town. She sounds genuine, during reread i liked her thoughts and stances, the way her reads progressed. Like, as a scum, she had no reason to warn Alek (head of Dolorus) that his behaviour is going to ruin the town image of the slot. I definitely don't see her in Stannis faction.

Tyene Sand
- leaning town. She was my weak town read through the reread on Day 1, and during the later days. Today I ISOed her to get a fresh impression after so many flips, and I still like her play. There were some minor things that I didn't like, but nothing strong.

Benmage
- leaning town. Controversial read, while doing his ISO i changed my mind several times, and in the end think that he is more likely to be town. Some paranoid part of me occasionally whispers that he can fit both factions, but logically and emotionally i see his actions on day 1 as genuine. I also thought that his 1,5 days disappearance at the end of Day 1 may be suspicious, and checked - his next post on site was in the other game (several hours after our Day 1 lynch) and he mentioned he was "rocked by real life", so the absence wasn't some strategic lurking.

Zdenek
- neutral, slightly leaning town. I like his entrance and activity in general. Even though from the start he attacked several of my town reads, i got the impression that he is working on his reads. During the reread sometimes i didn't agree with his logic, like 1622 (why Starbuck is not aligned with DCL), some posts about Tierce, etc. Don't like that he sees as scummy two of my town reads (not counting Shinori, since i have to think about the points from Pandora). Don't understand his play today so far.

Magua
- neutral. During the reread i had a feeling that hasdgfas wasn't really in the game. But his goodbye post sounded genuine and town, i liked the part about not sheeping. As for Magua, i agree his stance on Shinori on day 2, but that's about it. Many of our reads are really different, which means we are viewing the game from different angle. Whether this is based on playing style, meta with players or alignment is a thing I hope to figure out as the game progresses.

BBmolla
- neutral. I agree with some of his early reads and like some comments. Don't like his reaction to Hyperion vote, unchoose of DCX. Sometimes have paranoid thoughts about his "letter" thing. Don't understand his reaction on Day 3.

Mastermind of Sin
- neutral. There were no strong scum or town tells. At first i didn't like his attack on Tyene, but after some thinking came to conclusion that it was natural, if his explanation that he forgets that Tierce is Tyenna is true (and it seems so, since there's no reason to fabricate cases based on obviously wrong factual information). Don't like his stance on DCL wagon, but will reassess whether feeling remains when we'll have another Stannis flip (if both of us will be still alive).

Feysal
- neutral. Weak town read on day 1, he became null afterwards, because of his repeated absence from the game. Don't like the narrow focus after day 1.

Jal
- neutral, slightly leaning scum. I went over his ISO twice, then did a meta read, and still at loss. I like that he is reading carefully, and sometimes shows good thinking. Questions about fake claims in 1200 sounds as a town tell. Things I don't like - not always following reads with votes, overdefensive, misrepresentation of my reads (given that in most other cases he is accurate with facts and analysis), the arguing with Dolorus Edd on day 3. Don't have an opinion on back and forth with Lyanna yet, later will try to gather it in a separate file and read carefully once again.

4nxi3ty/Mockingjaye
- slightly leaning scum. Don't like that she avoided making stances on sala/sapo and bvoigt. In 1464 while speaking about StefanB and bvoight, she said a lot about Stefan, gave some links and opinions, and as for bvoight only said that she is waiting for his claim. She managed to avoid making a choice between DCL and Feysal as well, though that looks more natural. Still, this read is weak, since she had 8 posts with content to analyse, and not many interactions. I DO hope that day 4 would be longer then previous two days, and i will get a better read from the play of 4nxi3ty.

Plum's Yo Mamma (Nacho/Plum)
- slightly leaning scum. I don't know how Plum plays, but Nacho can play much better, when he wants to. Don't like their stance towards Sala/Sapo. Since he is godhanded, i didn't reread them today.

Scumhunter/Starbuck
- leaning scum. I don't think that her claim/selfchoose was a tell at all, since i can see her doing this as both town and scum. In the middle of day 1 she went under radar. Don't like 75, bvoigt stance on her, and i see her as a best fit in Aegon faction, but at the same time she can fit Stannis as well - redFF theory discussions with her doesn't sound like lynch pushing at all, and DCL was ignoring her.
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Post Post #2395 (isolation #69) » Thu Sep 27, 2012 2:56 am

Post by kortul »

Pandora case on Shinori mostly describes him as bad and closed player, but is Shinori scum because of this? I don't think this attributes are alignment indication. Though, at a first glance i see at least two points from Pandora i have to think about, whether they make null my reason for thinking that Shinori is town.
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Post Post #2399 (isolation #70) » Thu Sep 27, 2012 6:20 am

Post by kortul »

Almost posted my comments and thoughts on Pandora points on Shinori, but on preview realized that if Shinori IS scum, my post may influence his response. So saved this as a draft, and will wait for Shinori to give his own answers first. If he is town he has nothing to hide and will explain things and answer questions. And if he is scum, i don't want to help.
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Post Post #2400 (isolation #71) » Thu Sep 27, 2012 6:33 am

Post by kortul »

Actually, i think i can answer to the last two points, since they are outside thoughts on Shinori, not questions directed to him.

Using the role as an excuse to do nothing has a short life-span unless... unless he can't die. Now, that's a really good point. If Shinori is bulletproof scum, this claim can keep him fooling us long enough, i can even see a scenario, that if he is a member of a faction with daytalk, some other member of his faction is follower and telling the results to Shinori. But, and that's a big but, if he is bulletproof, why go to such a complex scheme if you can use the results quietly within your own faction, and claim follower only if you are about to be lynched? I just don't see any extra advantages, so think Occam razor is applicable here.

If anybody can come with decent thoughts of what advantages Shinori!scum (or his faction) has because of such gambit, share them. Until that time i don't see him as a scum. Maybe Pandora is right in that we are missing something here, but what? For now i am fine to let scum factions worry whether he is town or a rival follower.
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Post Post #2402 (isolation #72) » Thu Sep 27, 2012 8:02 am

Post by kortul »

So what? Who needs a second part of the claim instead of content? How that should help us to find scum? If you ARE lazy town, replacing would be better... :roll:

A notion of Jaime Lannister being a VT is interesting, i will leave this claim for those familiar with a last book and Faraday modding style. And i thought i've seen some Jaime Lannister breadcrumbs elsewhere.
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Post Post #2413 (isolation #73) » Fri Sep 28, 2012 7:43 am

Post by kortul »

Pandora, let's see the picture based on your assumptions and logic in 2403. Scum!Shinori checks at night Staeg. At the beginning of day 2 he learns about Jail, about the fact that Staeg has investigative role (danger alert!), and that Shadow claims that bvoigt were lying. Staeg also said twice that he is feeling bad about Regfan, but it is just gut (ie he breadcrumbed something, but isn't going to claim on Day 2). Shinori knows that he isn't in danger of being lynched for the day. So he has an easy straightforward day/night - vote bvoigt, make some posts, kill Staeg at night (preventing future investigations), check someone else. Instead he cryptically hinted he has a role and check on Staeg, locked himself in a jail and gave Staeg yet another night check (who should use it on Shinori, since jailing doesn't prevent from being checked and it was obvious Shinori will claim on day 3). He couldn't be sure what would be Staeg claim on day 3, his checks, and whether he will be even in danger of being lynched (how many time town happily lynch claimed investigative roles?)

There is new point that you mentioned, that maybe scum!Shinori tried to get jailkeep on himself for a clean shot on Shadow. Well, if his faction were worried about Shadow, they would shoot him on Day 1. And if they did and he was protected (we've seen only 2 kills on night 1), then how locking jailkeep on Shinori would help with killing Shadow, who is protected anyway?

I just don't see consistency in this picture, puzzle pieces don't fit. But i really like that you are looking on a situation from different angles, so if we are indeed missing something, maybe yet another turn of your head(s) will show that missing link.

That is really visible on a general level of activity, i can't believe we have 18 players remaining, "easy" day 2 was more busy...
Feysal
, do you have more thoughts on the game, analysis, what are your reads other than Starbuck/Scumhunter? You were more or less active with chooses on you, and like 2-3 posts per day afterwards.
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Post Post #2446 (isolation #74) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:08 am

Post by kortul »

MoS, at first glance your method just rewards scum, who likes to bus the partners and avoid other major wagons, sitting on vanity wagons, and as in any statistical system the points you look for and the weights you use really change the results. It can be useful for you to pick a players to ISO (given 18 players alive and the number of pages), but that's about it.

You said that "points system is just a guideline for further analysis", but in the end came to conclusion that several players are scummy for showing "up on pretty much every list", which means that your conclusions ARE based on points system, not on detailed ISOs.
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Post Post #2447 (isolation #75) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:14 am

Post by kortul »

Also i think that somewhere on a road in your VCA you took a wrong turn, since the final Stannis list changed a lot, and in that final post you weren't really analyzing that faction...
In post 2433, Mastermind of Sin wrote:At least one
Stannis scum
is in this group:
Benmage, Magua, Shinori
(obviously I know it's not me)
In post 2434, Mastermind of Sin wrote:
Stannis Faction
possible:
Benmage, Shinori, BBmolla, Magua, 4nxiety
In post 2441, Mastermind of Sin wrote:
Stannis Faction
:
kortul, Jal, Shinori
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Post Post #2450 (isolation #76) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:16 am

Post by kortul »

@Shinori
, wait, take a look at the two previous pages, there were questions for you.
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Post Post #2454 (isolation #77) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 10:35 am

Post by kortul »

Hmm, there were unasked questions in Pandora case you found (and probably some farther posts, don't remember all of them). For example, i would like to know why did you check Tierce.
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Post Post #2459 (isolation #78) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 11:09 am

Post by kortul »

MoS, timing and positioning without deep ISO is meh. Lyanna already started explaining this, i can add that replacements and reread influence timing and positioning as well.

I do not "claim", i quote your own words. And the next post shows that you missed something on a road. I hope that regardless of your alignment you are looking for scum, so pointing out things to consider should help.

Anyway, based on your response i think you are not really interested in my input, so i won't farther comment on this.
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Post Post #2480 (isolation #79) » Sat Sep 29, 2012 9:34 pm

Post by kortul »

All the talk about wagons prompted me to look at the day 1 wagons again. One wagon caught my attention. Feysal wagon was slow, and at its highest point was at 10 players, then died there. If Feysal is town, scum factions made no real attempt to at least get the claim. I started thinking about the reasons for this. It can't be because of choose mechanics only, since both greenknight and DCL wagons had no such troubles once they crossed the middle line. So the resistance is there either because he is really good player and many town players gave him the benefit of the doubt (i think i used the right expression here), or because he belongs to a scum faction. DCL wagon seem to invalidate the second possibility, but then i remembered Jal saying that "Those Stannis-aligned are few" (this caught my attention since sounded like some inside knowledge). If he is right (regardless of the reasons why he thinks so), then Stannis faction couldn't really stop the wagon on DCL. That means that the adjusted reasons are - either Feysal is good player and many town players gave him the benefit of the doubt, or he is scum aligned with Aegon faction (that is/was bigger than Stannis faction). I never played with Feysal before, and not that impressed with his analysis and activity after several initial posts, so would like to hear thoughts from those who know his meta.
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Post Post #2493 (isolation #80) » Sun Sep 30, 2012 8:40 am

Post by kortul »

In post 2406, Scumhunter wrote:Oh my goodness. No I mean I honestly generally I do avoid large games, this is the first game I've ever been in with this many players and I avoid it because I am kind of slow at processing things and stuff but yea, I'd say from your guys pov it looks bad and maybe I should replace out. Fffff.
Reading the thread TONIGHT. If not I will post to ask for a replacement, you guys do deserve better for sure.
Scumhunter, that was almost 3 days ago. You keep saying that you are lazy
town
, then what is your motivation to feed us with promises? Lazy town doesn't equal VI, ie you do realize that we have like 6 days until deadline, and the longer you delay your decision the less time we will have to process your content (if any), and the less time will have your replacement(if any) to read and comment on anything before the deadline.
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Post Post #2510 (isolation #81) » Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:04 am

Post by kortul »

Tierce, but i don't see this slot as town. My suspicions are not that strong, but they exist. I reread the play of Starbuck again, and just don't see any towntells. She may be naive, maybe she were confused, but that isn't an alignment tell. I already told why i think interactions between Sala/Sapo, bvoigt and her are suspicious. I hoped to get a better read on the slot from Scumhunter play, but he does nothing. He had 2 game days without any pressure to do anything (reread, ISO, thoughts on events on those days), but all he did were promises and prod dodges. Today i decided to add a pressure to get any reaction, and nothing much changed. More promises. My read on the slot didn't change since day 1, because there is nothing to analyze. No real interactions, thoughts, reads. If this slot is town, at the moment Scumhunter is just dead weight occupying it.

If he continues being dead weight, he is likely to live through the nights; and if we ignore him, live through the days. And i don't want those who will remain with him in the endgame doubleguessing who he is, based on a day 1 events and nothing else. I want him to either start working (and become more readable), or replace, or be lynched before endgame if he continues to ignore the first two options.
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Post Post #2511 (isolation #82) » Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:08 am

Post by kortul »

@4nx,
can you tell your scum reads and strong town reads atm, along with the reasons for those reads? I remember having hard time reading you in the game we played since our styles are different, but sometimes you were readable from a logical point of view.
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Post Post #2580 (isolation #83) » Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:03 am

Post by kortul »

I am seeing posts from the Nacho i remember, which is good. I think he finally realized, that once his alignment will be known he will be either lynched next day (if scum), or killed at night (if town and not protected), so i believe that his attempts at finding scum are genuine now. Another reason i believe so is his explanation on the read change on me - in the game where i was scum he died night 1, so to have a meta on me from that game he had to read it again, and i don't think he would do this if all he wanted today/tomorrow were some mislynches (i am also curious as to what were my scum-tells in Last Will IV, since i wasn't aware that my play as scum and town is different, but that's another question and i will return to it after the game).

Also like the latest posts from 4nx - he is more active now, even though his wagon isn't exactly rolling. On the other hand, Pine and Scumhunter disappeared.

I have a large family gathering this weekend, in village with no internet, and will drive there with my wife on Friday, which means being v/la for 3 days and missing the deadline here. Will decide on my final vote for this day on Friday morning. To get an understanding whom should i reread, i took a look on a list of reads gathered by Zdenek, skimmed through ISO of those missing or listed "clear", and through several last pages of thread to compile a list of players willing to vote for current wagons or having them as town read. There were some null reads so i didn't count them, since if those reads already changed to scum reads, i'd expect at least some comments, or questions/pushing. And i have no idea about Pine and Scumhunter scum/town reads. If i made some errors about someone reads (or there were errors in Zdenek lists) just correct me, but i doubt there would be more than 1-2 errors.

Only
Scumhunter
wagon has 9 players who have at least a weak scum read on him or are willing to lynch him if their main suspect(s) would not get enough votes.
MoS
has 5-7 potential votes (some players weren't clear about their current read on him). Next is
Feysal
, who has 5 potential votes atm. Pine/Jal and 4nx have 4 or less potential votes.

Scumhunter - Magua, Feysal, kortul, Lyanna Stark, Mastermind of Sin [Shinori, Regfan, 4nx, Zdenek]
Mastermind of Sin - Zdenek, Tyene Sand [Shinori, Regfan, BBmola, Magua(?), Feysal(?)]
Feysal - Plums Yo Mamma, BBmolla, Pandora [Zdenek, Shinori]

At the same time 5 players (Minimum, Tyene, Benmage, Plums Yo Mamma, Pandora) are sure that Scumhunter is town, which means that this slot at least deserves a second look. Tomorrow i will reassess Scumhunter, MoS and Feysal, and read the arguments of those who think they are scum or town. With less than 3 days remaining it is time for those sitting on smaller wagons (or not voting) tol think on their options, reads and possible compromises as well.

PEdit. Updated counts after Shinori post.
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Post Post #2605 (isolation #84) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 4:46 am

Post by kortul »

I really don't like the move of MoS. If you are annoyed by a particular player suspicions/comments/etc - just ignore him. Replacing out with some of the focus on you and that close to deadline is bad.

@mod
, can we have a time extension for a deadline? With 2 days remaining it isn't realistic for replacements to get what's going on in a game of this size. I hope i am not the only one who thinks so.

Starting a reread.
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Post Post #2636 (isolation #85) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:37 am

Post by kortul »

I thought Feysal ISO would be simple, but i got sidetracked a lot, since in process of reading several times i had some thoughts and ideas that needed ISOing our mod (for vote counts), Sapo, bvoight, DCL. Then i checked the reasons of those voting Feysal to see whether i agree with their points.

As far as i understand, Feysal is suspected for his narrow focus at Starbuck slot since Day 1, lurking, and a possibility of being Stannis scum. On day 1 he was suspected for a "multiball scumslip", but today it may be just an indirect reason for an old scum read on a slot, not something he is called for.

Lurking. It is either lack of free time (ie not alignment telling), or a tactical scum behavior. I don't really have time to check his site meta, so once Regfan/Tierce/Nacho will settle on whether this is a scumtell for him or not, i will trust them on it.

Narrow focus. Hard to miss. It is bad, since it doesn't advance reads on other players. The question is, is it a scum tell? If he is lurking because of lack of free time, this focus is the direct result and not alignment relevant. If he is lurking as scum, then this lack of scumhunting doesn't make sense, unless he is some scum PR who doesn't want to stick his head out and who is sure that he already found the rival scum member.

So the first two reasons are standard lurker dilemma - some will always believe that this particular lurking is scummy, and others will think otherwise. I am not convinced, so next point are interactions.

Spoiler: Interactions with Factions
Why i think Feysal isn't Aegon aligned. Both Salamence and bvoigt were on Feysal wagon, for a long time. bvoigt even voted Salamence and choosed Feysal in the same post. Doublebus happens, but the farther interactions make it really unlikely. Saporeint mentioned Feysal a lot and Feysal was his ambivalence read, and when Feysal wagon was at 10 and greenknight wagon at 9 he unvoted Feysal. But some time (after the greenknight claim) Feysal become his scumread (1264) and he voted Feysal again putting him at 10. Basicly his read on Feysal was progressing and changing naturally, following the events. And if bvoigt was bussing, then his switch to DCL in the end was strange, since at that time Feysal wasn't really in danger anymore, and why lose all credits for joining wagon with unknown flip? Also, in 1441 Feysal gave good observations of bvoigt, but that's just a bonus reason, interactions are more reliable, imho.

Now, how about Stannis faction? Nacho in 2565 quoted DCL post 804 (part of it), and said "read how he feels obligated to shirk responsibility for the jal vote (which should be his stronger scumread), and yet doesn't for the Feysal read. it's almost like he knows Feysal is gonna flip scum, and thus doesn't need to be worried about voting him." But in the same post DCL made comments as to why he suspects Feysal, so the choose looks natural, i think this was his attempt at scumhunting, and once he found someone looking like scum he joined the wagon on him (it happen to be choose wagon).

I am more concerned about the choose from Feysal towards DCL. He spent time ISOing greenknight and doing some analysis before Choosing him, but his Choose on DCL once greenknight claimed mason was without any attempts on comments or explanations. DCL wagon at that time was at 5 votes, so not even trying to ISO him is strange. Besides, he thought of redFF as VI, and the only comment on DCL up to this choose was in the same post - "As for DCLXVI, I hated his choose on me for being too neutral."

A conclusion - I definitely do not see Feysal as Aegon scum, but the possibility of him being Stannis scum is real.

I am slightly leaning scum on Feysal now, but still suspect Starbuck slot more. But to avoid a no-lynch i am willing to switch and greywind him closer to deadline (it is extended and is 5 days now, so i will be back in time). Meanwhile i do want to hear more about meta on him from Regfan an Tierce (if i will have time after the trip i may take a look to form my own opinion, but can't promise).
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Post Post #2637 (isolation #86) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:39 am

Post by kortul »

While reassessing Feysal i noticed something.

In post 1191, Feysal wrote:
In post 1172, StefanB wrote:
Feysal:
Since you didn't answer it,
who do you want to shoot?
Starbuck.
No question. She is my strongest scum read, and even if she somehow were town, she richly deserves having her head stuck on a pike for doing nothing all day.
5 hours later Saporeint jumped off Feysal choose wagon (in 1204), making Feysal and greenknight wagons equal. Some time later, in 1231, bvoigt asked "You seem to be one of the few people, if not the only person, to suspect Starbuck. What makes shooting her a better idea than shooting someone who you have a weaker scumread on, but also is more of a consensus choice as scum?"

I got a feeling that bvoigt was worried, because he repeated the question soon enough:
In post 1292, bvoigt wrote:@Feysal: Can you respond to my question, please?
Without getting an answer, in 1436 he decided to switch from Feysal to DCL and secure the choose.

This concerted effort to make sure that Feysal won't be choosen once he said that he will shoot Starbuck increased my suspicions on Starbuck of being Aegon aligned scum.
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Post Post #2638 (isolation #87) » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:46 am

Post by kortul »

In post 2627, AurorusVox wrote:Cursory search of the thread shows scum have fakeclaims
Unvote: timeater
Vote: Feysal
Can you elaborate, how this fact changed your read on Timeater? I see different logic paths, so want to be sure what is your logic in this case.
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Post Post #2814 (isolation #88) » Sun Oct 07, 2012 6:08 am

Post by kortul »

I am back, will be reading all new pages once i have time (tonight or tomorrow). Took a look at the last page, messy but seems like we have 3 wagons now instead of 1.5, and 2 days to deadline, so hopefully i won't slow things down with careful reading instead of skimming.
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Post Post #2883 (isolation #89) » Mon Oct 08, 2012 2:17 am

Post by kortul »

Had some time during lunch to start reading through the pages, got some questions.

@Zdenek
- have you seen any comments/discussions/etc during or after ChronoTrigger, that the absence of solid suspects "was the main reason that Spyrex was suspicious of" Feysal? Ie is it your own opinion, or there is anything that indicates that Feysal also thought it was the reason for his failure as a scum? And another question, not related - what is your opinion on motivation behind Thor665 attack on you?

@Thor665
- you do realize that chances that you will push Zdenek wagon to the lynch stage today are really small? Are you going to settle for a compromise lynch? Have you seen case(s) on Feysal and Timeater slot, what are your thoughts?

@Timeater
- have you seen the information from BBmola about the Aegon faction? Does it affect your thoughts about the (balanced) setup in any way?
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Post Post #2901 (isolation #90) » Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:40 am

Post by kortul »

In post 2885, Thor665 wrote:
In post 2883, kortul wrote:
@Thor665
- you do realize that chances that you will push Zdenek wagon to the lynch stage today are really small? Are you going to settle for a compromise lynch? Have you seen case(s) on Feysal and Timeater slot, what are your thoughts?

The top three wagons are me, Feysal, and Timeater. I have expressed interest in lynching Zdenek and Minimalist.
I know I am town and think the other two are likely town - where do you think I am better served placing my vote?
If I could think of something, I'd be there.
Ok, i got the Timeater part. But in 2747 you said "Also, if this is multiball, it doesn't matter except insomuch as I might be wrong on Feysal", that's why i've asked. What IS your opinion on Feysal now? With some explanation, since "Zdenek pushes him" doesn't really shows Feysal alignment, just reduces the possibility of both of them being in the same scum faction.

Regfan, i really doubt you will be able to roll a wagon on 4nx (take a look at one of my previous post with counts, nothing much changed since that time). Since there's lot of talk about Feysal meta, but opinions are different, skimming his games to get my own impression of his play.

And my questions to
Zdenek
and
Timeater
are still open.
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Post Post #2947 (isolation #91) » Mon Oct 08, 2012 10:36 pm

Post by kortul »

I checked the ChronoTrigger game, and Feysal feels different there, both in playing style and on emotional level. I agree that he may adjust his playing style, but i am not sure whether he is good enough to fake changes on emotional level as well (being mostly a logical player). His town games differ too, so i can't say he is matching his town meta either. I still slightly suspect Feysal logically, but don't see him as scum emotionally.

I still suspect Timeater slot, but after this entrance claim that i don't like, Timeater play today is natural.

Zdenek first posts on Feysal meta weren't exactly clear, and i can see why Thor665 attacked him, but the very next post explains his thoughts, so Thor continuing his attack isn't exactly logical in my eyes. But if he is town this is genuine attack, for reasons/logic known only to him, and if he is scum then the most probable reason for attack is deflecting people from a buddy wagon, and without the knowledge of Feysal alignment this reason is only speculative.

UNVOTE:

Timeater lynch isn't happening today, chances for 4nx are even smaller, and while i had slight suspicions on Jal, Thor play today makes sense mostly if he is scum together with Feysal, so lynching Feysal first is more logical. Which means that even though i don't like it, i am
ready to hammer Feysal
.

I am here until deadline and want to give a chance to those who want to say something to give their thoughts before the night, so will do it a bit later. Oh, and Stannis faction may take another look at my observations in post 2637.
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Post Post #2954 (isolation #92) » Tue Oct 09, 2012 3:59 am

Post by kortul »

If anybody had something important to say before the night, or share the thoughts, they would find a time to post already.

VOTE: Feysal
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Post Post #2991 (isolation #93) » Thu Oct 11, 2012 9:13 am

Post by kortul »

Once i saw the "flip" i checked the Traitor role on a wiki, and a bit confused by it, too many possibilities of who knows what. Have anyone seen Faraday using traitors before? If yes, was the main team aware of traitor, and did traitor knew anything about his teammates? Because i am not sure how to analyze interactions between Feysal and other players right now. Like i suspected that he may belong to the Stannis faction because of his offhanded vote on DCL, but if he had no idea that DCL is his teammate, then this logic was wrong... Second part of his role (Specific Neighborizer) most likely means that he wasn't aware who were his teammates, but maybe i just don't understand what Specific means. Hell, Faraday makes analyzing interactions of both factions as hard as possible.

Also, what are the ways to recruit traitor to the main faction? From a wiki i got an impression that attempting to kill him will do the trick, are there any other options? That will help searching for hidden meanings in the posts.

In post 2981, Tyene Sand wrote:...why Benmage? Lyanna I can get, but Benmage?
Why do you think Lyanna was killed?

Zdenek, i already asked Shinori the same question on one of the previous days, apparently he knows only the nature of the action.
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Post Post #2998 (isolation #94) » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:00 am

Post by kortul »

Tierce, it was there from the beginning, once i saw the "flip" i checked wiki article on traitors and was also trying to find what specific means. Then i was mulling at that combination for some time, but came to no definite conclusion as to the exact meaning and how to analyze Feysal interactions. I am also concerned what Informed means in his case.

And Tierce, Aegon killing one of the masons on night 1 is crazy, they should be setting ground for the bvoigt "vig" kill (ie killing Shadow to avoid Torturer results, and claiming that bvoigt were blocked), and i think this is the missing kill. Which means that Stannis killed both masons, most likely to see where the kill from claimed vig bvoigt will land if he isn't Tortured (he wouldn't shoot claimed masons as a claimed vig).

Thanks, Minimum. Going to sleep, will see tomorrow whether there will be more answers to my questions before rereading Feysal.
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Post Post #3016 (isolation #95) » Fri Oct 12, 2012 8:47 am

Post by kortul »

Started Feysal reread with checking Zdenek assumptions. Then decided to do a double ISO Feysal/Tyene to see if there is any reaction adjustment if those assumptions are true, so not sure i will finish it tonight.

Shinori
, if there's a good chance a wagon will form on that player today, maybe it is wise to wait for a possible claim from that player before giving the result. But in case of quicklynch or a claim near the deadline we risk losing the information, or having not enough time to analyze it and the results of the player with investigative role.

In all other cases telling whom did you check can be bad or good depending on the exact role. *shrug* Though, i think Regfan is right, with Motivator in the game really powerful investigative roles are less likely (especially since we already had a Torturer).
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Post Post #3042 (isolation #96) » Sat Oct 13, 2012 6:30 am

Post by kortul »

I came to conclusion, that if Specific Neighborizer role allows to neigborize only Stannis members (otherwise where are his neighbours??), initially Feysal had no knowledge of his teammates, or after the first night he would know the whole team. The quote below also heavily hints that:
In post 39, Feysal wrote:Everything we say will influence the choice made by whoever we eventually send, and right or wrong,
what we say will be used to determine where our own loyalties lie.
I agree with Zdenek here, the bolded part has no logical connection to the previous statements, and is an obvious message to those who are looking for traitors, especially since this is his first post.

The question is, was Tierce post a response, or a coincidence? It does sounds like an answer:
In post 93, Tyene Sand wrote:What
is
suspect about this multiball thing (by all means, pappums--go read a few Feysal posts elsewhere) is the offhanded way Feysal addressed it, as anyone who has read or played with him will realize. Feysal has a tendency to wax prose over every single point that is not an established fact, and here there was an 'assumption' that he simply took and ran with without developing it. It feels awkward, out of place--
as if it is already fact for him because he knows his scumteam is too small to be alone.


And if, by chance, he is not a
traitorous servant
of the enemy, this is most certainly a man I trust with killing that bastard on the Wall.
I bolded two parts, not one, since "to be alone" describes Traitor position exactly (ie adds a second meaning to the otherwise normal phrase), and the second part makes sure that anybody with Traitor role will catch it, and reread the post.

So, if Tierce is Stannis, it means that faction knew they have traitor, but had no idea who he is, and while she caught the call from Feysal, she wasn't sure and left a message that is clear only for traitor (not necessarily Feysal).

And Feysal indeed used "subvert" addressing Tierce in his very next post, and the question is - were there any unnatural changes in the Tierce interactions afterwards?

Spoiler: Let's see
At that moment (page 10) leading vote wagon was on Minimum, and choose wagon on Feysal. Within an hour, with no posts from Feysal or Minimum, no vote changes or accusations against Feysal or Minimum, and three posts from Tierce on anything but Minimum or Feysal, she changes her choose from Feysal to Minimum in the fourth post:
In post 247, Tyene Sand wrote:How sad that this thread would ignore redFF's scumminess. Minimum is a bad lynch and, moreover, we wouldn't want to ruin CES's record of not getting lynched, now would we?

UNCHOOSE: Feysal
CHOOSE: Minimum
Once again looks like a damage control - makes Feysal wagon smaller, and an attractive alternative for those voting Minimum to switch to choosing them. Which also means that if Tierce is scum, Minimum isn't her partner.

After that Feysal wasn't mentioned for some time, and left scumreads as well. Guess Feysal thought that Tierce got his message and her reaction is too obvious, so tried to distance a bit - "For one thing, while I don't know how I expected her to react to my post #224, I did not expect her to ignore it completely and quietly move off my wagon." But the response from Tierce is either brilliant damage control, or a perfect explanation of her shift of focus from Feysal (ie this wasn't a dialogue and addumptions are wrong). So more reading is needed.

Feysal, 991: "It may surprise you that your responses have given me a better read of you. Not quite the obvious town so many others call you, but better."
Tyene, 1002: "I thought you had been in an
informed
position and distorting things"
These two phrases also caught my attention, but i have a feeling i am just paranoid, and misinterpret innocuous things, like how Tierce!scum would know that their traitor was Informed?

Short version - there was a change in Tierce stance on Feysal, but she gave a natural explanation for it. Paranoid part of me still has doubts, but logical part points at things that speak against Tierce being Stannis aligned.

First, her stance on redFF and DCL speaks in her favor, it was consistent and she didn't try to jump off the wagon when DCL started rolling. If this was bussing, it was extreme.

Second, unless we have some fourth party (
"Elsewhere, Brienne of Tarth looked for Catelyn Stark"
), we are missing only one night kill (night 1), and i believe the missing kill belongs to Aegons, therefore Stannis didn't recruit Feysal (i asked are there any other ways to recruit traitors, but nobody answered). Actually, Aegons know better, whether they missed at night 1 - if they didn't (shoot mason??), then they will figure out that Feysal was recruited and kill Tierce.

Third, if we believe Shinori (i still do), Tierce did nothing on night 3. If she is Stannis, with DCL dead and Feysal still isolated, someone else did a factional kill. But using factional kill would prevent that someone from using any other powers, which means that Stannis consists of bunch of goons + traitor, or they have yet another member (4+1). I am in a middle of book 2, but don't remember Stannis faction being large (and i think Jal said the same with nobody objecting), and if Stannis still have 3 active members, their defense of Feysal wasn't exactly noticeable, so i doubt this is the case.

Tierce remains my leaning town read, but i will reassess it first thing each time we will have Stannis flip, if both of us will be still in the game.
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Post Post #3044 (isolation #97) » Sat Oct 13, 2012 6:38 am

Post by kortul »

Will read now what happened while i was mulling on that hell of double ISO, but i realized that Feysal flip changes nothing in my suspicions towards Timeater.

VOTE: Timeater
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Post Post #3045 (isolation #98) » Sat Oct 13, 2012 6:44 am

Post by kortul »

Regfan, exactly, 3+1 and Tierce doing nothing at night means that she is really unlikely to belong to Stannis.

And i totally don't see Aegons killing a mason, with Shadow promising to torture bvoigt. Even if Shadow was telling a lie, imagine them killing a mason, and Shadow asking in the morning "so, bvoigt, whom did you shoot?".
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Post Post #3047 (isolation #99) » Sat Oct 13, 2012 6:55 am

Post by kortul »

Yes. And that also hints that Tierce "dialogue" with Feysal was a coincidence, and Stannis missed his hints.
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Post Post #3048 (isolation #100) » Sat Oct 13, 2012 6:56 am

Post by kortul »

Could explain his apathy, if he were still alone and had no idea where is his Faction and whom to attack, probably he was only sure about Starbuck being Aegon aligned.
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Post Post #3049 (isolation #101) » Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:44 am

Post by kortul »

In post 3020, Feysal wrote:Or has it not occured to you to just, you know, ask? I may even answer if I deem it harmless, or if I believe it to be more useful in hunting the other team.
Well, knowing your role, we can rely only on answers that have some links behind.

In post 3020, Feysal wrote:I have not seen him use traitors, but there is a game we both played in relevant to what you want to know.
For example, this one, can you give a link to this game?

In post 3027, Regfan wrote:Mulled this game over in my head on the way home today (And finally home so should be able to get back to full activity tonight in 4-5 hours) and I don't think Molla fits as scum at all. Him lying about getting the message during the day to avoid being night-killed makes sense regardless of his alignment however the way that he came out and stated as much is genuine. Very genuine. All in all his role and play meta-wise point highly towards him being town.

Tierce, I'll ask you this: Do you think Stannis-Scum would be told that Aegon-Scum is split up? I don't. That removes him being Stannis-Scum.
Do you think as Aegon-Scum he'd come out and state the make up of his faction? I don't.
So overall just from that alone he's town.
Regfan, after i saw Feysal "flip" i had paranoid thoughts: what if Aegons are not split, just also have a traitor, and BBmola is either looking for him, or telling the faction "recruit me"? But i doubt scum would be so openly looking for each other. And Starbuck is more likely Aegon anyway.

In post 3034, Tyene Sand wrote:Timeater - Yeah this ain't Stannis. He could be a regular Goon trying to get in a nightkill for his team via the Choose mechanic, but mind you,
this is incredibly dangerous for an uninformed Aegon: because shooting someone may mean they hit one of their (unkn)own, if they really are divided.
Bolded part is true only if Starbuck really wanted to be choosen. At that time MoI already expressed desire to be choosen, and there wasn't a crowd waiting to choose him. So yes, Starbuck could be genuine VT asking to be choosen, or could be scum aiming to get rid of pressure once and for all with an early VT claim with town looking explanation. I cannot distinguish her motivation, this is null tell for me. But if this is town tell for you because of the bolded part, this is wrong - at that time it was obvious that nobody would seriously consider choosing those who asked for it, so this wasn't a dangerous gambit if she is scum.

Will be busy on Sunday, so will reassess my null and leaning scum reads next week. Town reads only if i will have a lot of time (which is unlikely), since game IS big (besides, my town reads keep dying left and right anyway).
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Post Post #3077 (isolation #102) » Sun Oct 14, 2012 8:37 am

Post by kortul »

4nx claim feels town, because at the end of the previous day he suspected Regfan, but at the beginning of the day he started defending him, and this change happened before Shinori even posted anything. If 4nx were scum finding conftown at night with his ability, i doubt his first reaction would be defending his previous scum read.

4nx
, if that other aspect of your role won't help us get a better read on living players, there's no need to explain anything. If it does, just remember that most likely you just joined the club of night targets for scum teams, and make a decision with that in mind.

@Shinori
, the unspoken question should be obvious, but just to be sure - you were speaking of 4nx earlier?
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Post Post #3092 (isolation #103) » Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:51 pm

Post by kortul »

In post 3086, Tyene Sand wrote:The game Feysal was referring to is Chrono Trigger Resurrection, kortul. He was a traitor, Faraday was part of an hydra with Regfan, CES was also playing and I replaced out during N1 due to getting too much setup info. All of us but Feysal were Town; I think that's everyone alive here who was in that game, but might be missing someone.
But i ISOed Feysal there during Day 4, he wasn't traitor, but some goon.

I went and rechecked the game again and found that there were 2 traitors there (not Feysal), but they knew their team, and team knew who were the traitors. Unless i am dead wrong, this isn't the case in our game.

And now we have a Voyeur claim. *sigh* I don't see how it can help us in any way. :roll:
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Post Post #3126 (isolation #104) » Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:31 am

Post by kortul »

Magua, our PRs are already claiming left and right... Without 4nx claim that added 2 targets to the night-kill list (Regfan, you forgot Shinori in your list), i would be against mass claiming. But now scum has no problems with night kills, and i think mass claim may help our PRs to use their powers more effectively.

Besides, out of 15 alive players, we have 3 claimed PRs, 1 mystery_claimed_PR BBmola, 1 claimed VT, Tyene doing nothing on one of the nights (VT?), PlumNacho about to become conf_X. That leaves 8 players, at least 5 of whom already ok with claiming, which for scum purposes means that if they are town they essentially soft-claimed to have nothing to hide or fear.

Long story short - i think it is already too late to remain in closed position. And i am ok with any method of claiming.
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Post Post #3130 (isolation #105) » Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:43 am

Post by kortul »

Actually, i just looked at the latest VC and counted players. We have 15 votes, but
14
alive players (Feysal is living dead)
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Post Post #3133 (isolation #106) » Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:51 am

Post by kortul »

@mod - i was referring to my previous thoughts, meaning that we have even less players that i thought. From a practical point of view i hope we can count on living dead to become just dead sooner or later:)
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Post Post #3139 (isolation #107) » Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:35 am

Post by kortul »

In post 3135, Zdenek wrote:Why do you think that the missing kill belongs to the Aegon faction?
I will just quote myself here:
In post 2998, kortul wrote:And Tierce, Aegon killing one of the masons on night 1 is crazy, they should be setting ground for the bvoigt "vig" kill (ie killing Shadow to avoid Torturer results, and claiming that bvoigt were blocked), and i think this is the missing kill. Which means that Stannis killed both masons, most likely to see where the kill from claimed vig bvoigt will land if he isn't Tortured (he wouldn't shoot claimed masons as a claimed vig).
In post 3045, kortul wrote:And i totally don't see Aegons killing a mason, with Shadow promising to torture bvoigt. Even if Shadow was telling a lie, imagine them killing a mason, and Shadow asking in the morning "so, bvoigt, whom did you shoot?".


In post 3135, Zdenek wrote:For better or worse, I'm name claiming now. I'm Jeyne Poole, and this is false.
Guess those who actually finished the last book have some advantage after all, at least at making sense out of name claims. After seeing Feysal "bone" i took a quick look at wiki, and got an impression that Jeyne was Stannis aligned later on. And now this... From now on i will just ignore name claims, except for pretty obvious ones (like Lannister).
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Post Post #3199 (isolation #108) » Tue Oct 16, 2012 6:49 am

Post by kortul »

In post 3198, AurorusVox wrote:Here's a timeline.

I get reads on players (e.g. MoI) and I check to see if they're dead. So far so good.
Since you joined on page 103, you had to look up MoI in a dead list most likely because you don't remember him posting, right?

In post 3198, AurorusVox wrote:
I get a read on Shamrock, and find that he's not in the dead or alive list. Then I see he's replaced by Timeater.
Guess, you remember Timeater posting recently, so you didn't have to check his name second time in a dead list.

In post 3198, AurorusVox wrote:
I get a read on Salamence, I look to see if he's been replaced first - and fail to cross reference. I don't know why. I just did. I derp'd plain and simple. I'm not saying I thought he was still alive. I'm saying I derp'd and didn't cross reference properly in my excitement.
Ok, you checked previous players in a dead list, but didn't check Saporeint. Do you remember any posts from him, or references, or anything at all? 2 game days and 20+ pages without seeing someone, and you didn't even stop before posting? I can understand not reading 100 pages, but not following the game at all?

Also, even if you derped at crosschecking him,
you wanted to be useful
- why did you think that something happening on page 3 wasn't addressed already? Sala had 2 posts in the first three pages... You "ISO control+F'd" Tyene to check something about Regfan, why didn't you do the same about Sapo?
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Post Post #3239 (isolation #109) » Wed Oct 17, 2012 8:28 am

Post by kortul »

Busy at work these days, so while checking the game sometimes during the day, can devote time to analyzing anything only in the evenings. For obvious reasons will reassess AurorusVox slot first.

I find curious a sudden burst of activity from Timeater once AurorusVox went to L-1, especially after:
In post 3056, Timeater wrote:this is a good vote.
also wont rly be around to post this week but ill try


vote: magua
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Post Post #3242 (isolation #110) » Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:42 am

Post by kortul »

Finished reassessing. I had slight suspicions on MoS during day 1, but overall my read on him was neutral up to the beginning of Day 4. His later play consists of his artificial numbers thing and a strange replacement close to deadline, when he got some attention, which brought him back to scummy side.

I looked at my notes and checked again his ISO.
Spoiler: Things is don't like about MoS Day 1 play
In post 577, Mastermind of Sin wrote:There are several things wrong with this statement:

1) You're assuming that if I get chosen I'll have paid enough attention to D1 to be able to make an informed decision about who to vig.
2) You've clearly never seen me with a vig role. I'm awful at it, usually because I spend so much time second-guessing myself inside my head.
Lazy_bad_vig damage control theme.

In post 1324, Mastermind of Sin wrote:What the hell happened while I was gone?

Where did this DCLX wagon come from? I don't really understand why he's being wagoned here.
<...>
Unchoose, Choose: Feysal
He doesn't say that wagon is bad, reasons are awful or that DCL is town, but tries to push the counterwagon.

And i don' like him laying responsibility on Mina for his vote switches at the end of day 1 (1448, 1486, 1514).

His cryptic defence of Feysal also looks suspicious (even though Feysal is traitor, he was Neighborizer and this was Day 4 already).
In post 2490, Mastermind of Sin wrote:The Feysal I know is much more active and has a LOT of input...that said, I think he's town cuz *reasons*.


AurorusVox had not a single town tell that i can see. He droped his suspicions from Timeater because "if Timeaster had a fakeclaim, he wouldn't have fucked up his claim like he did" (ie fakeclaim PMs are somehow superior to town PMs?). His explanation behind Feysal vote was "because he is the biggest wagon". His sweep through RVS and the reasons for suspicion on Salamence are on the same level.

As a result, i am leaning scum on this slot, and this read is more strong than on Timeater. There's strange thing though, i think that Timeater is more likely to be Aegon scum, and AurorusVox is more likely to be Stannis scum, so i don't understand sudden activity from Timeater. Would like to hear his read and explanation on AV.

Will wait for the thoughts Minimum wanted to share, hopefully the answer from Timeater, and then switch my vote to AurorusVox. Meanwhile will continue reassessing my non-town reads.
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Post Post #3310 (isolation #111) » Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:00 pm

Post by kortul »

Ok, with Lyanna crumb and Shadow response we can be certain that Rolestopper part is true. I thought about MoS being jailkeeper (ie add roleblocker part), but we already had 2 roleblockers, and Shadow claimed "Investigation returned
no active role
", which doesn't sound like blocked result. So, role part is true. Now there's question about alignment.

Rolestopping Shadow on Night1 is detrimental for the Aegon faction, so MoS can't be Aegon.
As for the Stannis faction, they can only gain from Rolestopping Shadow on night 1.
If Shadow claim is true, he will either block a shot from town Vig, or ruin the claim of rival scum during the night, and if Shadow claim is false, he will be a perfect lynch candidate for the day 2. Not to mention a perfect cover claim for the future, in case it is needed. 1-shot means that he is not an attractive target for Aegons after the claim, and protecting claimed torturer get town credit (look at Regfan, Tierce and Minimum).

Since i thought AV/MoS to be more likely Stannis anyway, claim does nothing to lower the suspicions.

VOTE: AurorusVox
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Post Post #3311 (isolation #112) » Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:09 pm

Post by kortul »

In post 3269, AurorusVox wrote:Reads are:
<...>
MinimumScum
In post 3279, AurorusVox wrote:As for Minimum, I have no idea - ask Timmy.
In post 3280, AurorusVox wrote:By which I mean, I am sheeping him.
If you think someone is scum, the answer why can't be "no idea".
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Post Post #3316 (isolation #113) » Fri Oct 19, 2012 2:59 am

Post by kortul »

Here goes away my suspicion that Nacho was protecting Timeater by pushing Feysal lynch.

VOTE: Timeater

Tierce, Regfan
, i am interested in your opinions about my logic in 3310. I mean, i can see AC claim coming both from town rolestopper, and Stannis rolestopper, and nothing in it indicates the alignment for me, so i just ignore it and judge this slot based on everything else. If you see anything that heavily indicates that one of the possibilities is much more likely, or there are faults in my logic, i am interested to hear.
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Post Post #3318 (isolation #114) » Fri Oct 19, 2012 3:59 am

Post by kortul »

Ok, let's check it. The assumption is that MoS is Stannis rolestopper, and the question is - is there any benefit to a faction to use this on Shadow,

This is night 1. Due to BBmola "letter" thing, Stannis are already aware that this is multiball. There is an odd-day vig claim - it has to be dealt with somehow, because either this is town vig, or a rival scum.

One option is to simply kill him. But there is another - to make sure that a claimed torturer lives through the night to tell whether vig is real, and if he isn't, Stannis don't have to waste a shot and can use a lynch instead. If Shadow will confirm that bvoigt is town vig on day 2, then nothing is lost - they can kill the vig during second night, but have an added bonus of a protection claim on a conf town PR for one of faction members.

As an added bonus, this is a claim that any faction member can use, if needed, not just the actual rolestopper.
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Post Post #3320 (isolation #115) » Fri Oct 19, 2012 5:00 am

Post by kortul »

Saving a night kill by lynching rival through the day is benefit in my eyes. And your arguments prove that you see this claim as coming from town (and so do at least Tierce and Minimum), which means that it does carry a town cred.

But what the hell, this claim doesn't condemn him in any way (and neither it clears him in my eyes), so if you know AV and think he can improve his play and start working, i am willing to wait and see it for myself.

And you are right about the second part, so scratch that added bonus. I didn't look at it from this angle.
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Post Post #3323 (isolation #116) » Fri Oct 19, 2012 7:16 am

Post by kortul »

Can you explain again your current town read on Timmy?
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Post Post #3325 (isolation #117) » Fri Oct 19, 2012 7:29 am

Post by kortul »

But that someone else was his predecessor? Do you think, that if they are scum they have different fake claims?
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Post Post #3327 (isolation #118) » Fri Oct 19, 2012 7:33 am

Post by kortul »

Yes :) Well, because your wording was obscure, i even commented on this before.
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Post Post #3329 (isolation #119) » Fri Oct 19, 2012 7:34 am

Post by kortul »

No, he presented the same claim, almost with the same words (blonde, etc).
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Post Post #3332 (isolation #120) » Fri Oct 19, 2012 7:37 am

Post by kortul »

It was a mystery to me how that could make him obvtown in your eyes (or anyone else, since reading PM or 5 minute skimming over predecessor ISOs will do the trick).
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Post Post #3343 (isolation #121) » Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:50 am

Post by kortul »

I have a question regarding Feysal. It might be dumb, but anyway - is there any change in the flip text of a traitor who is recruited and traitor who is still alone? I suspect the answer is "no", but double checking can't hurt.

@Thor
, i am reading your ISO this weekend, and would like to ask something. You gave an example of the game (Storm of Swords) where you were town, and Zdenek scum, and pointed about similarities regarding Zdenek - Thor development there and here. I agree - the beginning is similar. But there's difference - your reaction and actions afterwards. There you were more relaxed, practically dismissed Zdenek words, weren't concentrated on him, and were actively scumhunting, working. Here, even though you have almost the same number of posts already, most of your activity is defense, or attacking those who vote you, even though i don't think you ever were in danger of being lynched yet. I find it hard to read someone who is concentrated on defense.

In a previous post you say that Timeater doesn't look scum to you, even though you did zero work. Your Feysal read was wrong, why do you think this read is better? Two days in a row he is one of the leading wagons, and you sit on your impression without reading at least Starbuck. Chances are you will still think this slot is town, but then you will be able to better defend your read, instead of asking to convince you that he is scum. Why are you so reluctant to do the legwork and show your opinion, not just agree/disagree with someone else?
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Post Post #3383 (isolation #122) » Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:34 am

Post by kortul »

Finished reassessing Jal/Thor slot. My impressions of Jal remained the same, as for Thor - there are some glimpses of what i consider town behavior (like he is not afraid of unpopular stances), but overall impression is still rather negative. I can understand his PoV regarding Zdenek, but don't understand his mostly defensive position, and do not like reluctance to do research/work on more deep reads. The read on this slot shifted towards slightly leaning scum.

Feel a bit better about AV, since he admitted that his read was based on a wrong tell, and actually did some work on reread and on making his own reads.

Don't understand Zdenek position.
@Zdenek
, why and how "it's probably more productive to vote <Thor> at the moment"?

After the recent burst from Timeater my doubts as to whether my suspicions are correct returned. Even though i am wary that he is calling everyone voting him town, his emotions feel genuine. Have anybody seen Timeater/Aclhemist playing as a scum under pressure? I tried to skim over some of his games, but they look the same to me regardless of alignment, and i don't have the time to read into meta more deeply. Still, i don't have more strong suspects now.
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Post Post #3428 (isolation #123) » Tue Oct 23, 2012 8:11 am

Post by kortul »

Timeater, doubts that i am right in my read on your slot doesn't mean that you are now my town read. Yes, you are not my strong scum read, but still strongest among weak scum reads. I was more sure about it yesterday, when you were sitting on "i'm obvtown" note, and Nacho was pushing Feysal - i had an impression that he was trying to save your butt, but his actions today speak against it.

@Thor, regarding BBmola "claim", can you describe with your own words what did he claim so far?
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Post Post #3448 (isolation #124) » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:04 am

Post by kortul »

@Thor, do you remember any details of his role?

And welcome, Andrius.
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Post Post #3450 (isolation #125) » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:12 am

Post by kortul »

In post 3433, Thor665 wrote:He claimed some sort of role that was given awareness of the makeup of one of the scum teams.
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Post Post #3453 (isolation #126) » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:33 am

Post by kortul »

In post 3451, Thor665 wrote:Thanks to Magua I know it's Aegon - that's all I've got.
So why do you think that he softclaimed a PR?
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Post Post #3553 (isolation #127) » Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:49 am

Post by kortul »

I am sorry for my absence, busy at work and occupied by profession-related studying and translating in my free time. It will be this way for another two weeks or so. Also have a business trip ahead. Regarding this game that means that while i will be able to follow it, ask and answer questions, and analyse things that do not require cross-reference ISOs or rereading, something deeper will have to wait. For the reference, will quickly state my current reads:

Regfan - town.
Tyene Sand - leaning town. This read is getting stronger.
Andrius/Shinori - leaning town due to early PR claim. How he is still alive is a mystery to me.
Plum's Yo Mamma (Nacho/Plum) - leaning town (hope his godhand flip will prove that). Completely changed my opinion, i like his play on days 4 and 5.
4nxi3ty - slightly leaning town, mostly because of him sticking head out with PR claim today. If we both will be alive on day 7 or so, then i will worry about this being a gambit. Didn't reread.
Pandora (Shadoweh/Quilford) - slightly leaning town. His recent claim isn't exactly PR for me, but it doesn't affect my read in any way.
Minimum (Mina/CES) - slightly leaning town. Not much presence on later days, so overall my read shifted towards neutral side.
Zdenek - neutral, slightly leaning town. Mostly due to active approach to the game, and i Thor-Zdenek exchange i like his position more. Didn't reread.
Magua - neutral. Didn't reread.
BBmolla - neutral. After i saw that Stannis had traitor, i am more and more paranoid about symmetry and him being Aegon (traitor, or looking for traitor) - references to a role PM, together with taking Griff name in 13. But overall impression is neutral.
AurorusVox - neutral, slightly leaning scum. Feeling better about him after he started working.
Thor - slightly leaning scum. Explained already after reread, and the impression is getting only worse.
Timeater - leaning scum.

Didn't see any more posts from Timeater that feel town (or at least genuine). Just extra pages to the thread to read :(
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Post Post #3642 (isolation #128) » Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:02 pm

Post by kortul »

I wish one of my neutral or leaning scum reads would be killed at night for a change, at least once. Kinda frustrated with the game, while my town reads were accurate so far, my scum reads are separate, no logical factional picture yet. Will reread my neutral reads during this week.

In post 3555, BBmolla wrote:
In post 3553, kortul wrote:BBmolla - neutral. After i saw that Stannis had traitor, i am more and more paranoid about symmetry and him being Aegon (traitor, or looking for traitor) - references to a role PM, together with taking Griff name in 13. But overall impression is neutral.

You think Aegon has two informed roles?
I doubt that Informed has anything to do with traitors, considering the following explanation from our mod:

In post 2095, Eddard Stark wrote:*Informed means he had information about another player(s) role.
I don't think that Informed tells traitors who can recruit them, or tells scum whom they can recruit, it is against the idea of traitor role.

PEdit. Pandora, try again. I was fully transparent in my thoughts and analysis regarding the Starbuck/Scumhunter/Timeater slot, so just ISO me. Please, show where did i promise "to read him soon" without followup?
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Post Post #3643 (isolation #129) » Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:17 pm

Post by kortul »

I see that the post you've linked are mine. What changed between them? Is it really a mystery? I left the dying wagon on one of my suspects, and went back to the wagon on my other suspect, that was getting attention finally.
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Post Post #3644 (isolation #130) » Wed Oct 31, 2012 12:05 am

Post by kortul »

Just realized you wanted me to start a popcorn. I had nothing against it yesterday, and have nothing against it today. If enough players agree to it, i can start.

@Pandora - i remembered one thing i wanted to ask you regarding your claim. Why did you target Lyanna during night 1, and not Shadow? Chances for him being a target for all sorts of powers were high, given his claim, and that's where your role shines, since that information could be useful for checking future claims.
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Post Post #3651 (isolation #131) » Wed Oct 31, 2012 3:44 am

Post by kortul »

Wow, why did you have to twist everything? My time is limited, and i don't like walls, so will try to be concise. Let's see.

1)
Pandora wrote:Your scum read on her was based on what the scum team thought of her, with a brushed off mention of her own posts in a way that doesn't verify the content inside.
post 2160 was an analysis of the interactions of the flipped Aegon, not an analysis of Starbuck. What content i had to verify, if "she ignored both slots and their wagons"?

2) Once again, this wasn't a case on Mockingjaye as well, and translating "(11 posts total, so less sure about her)" into "saying someone is less likely to be scum because they're lurkposting" is misrepresentation.

3) My 2901. Defending 4nx? Did you look at it in context? It was
1 day before deadline
, with 3 wagons tied, and Regfan tried to start yet another one, saying "hopefully people actually move to 4nxiety by the time I get up." I don't approve spreading the votes at the last moment, and in one of my recent posts i counted the number of players who suspected slots, and was telling regfan that at that moment the wagon was doomed.

4) Regarding meta search on Scumhunter. I was already suspicious about the slot, and was looking whether Scumhunter play matches his town meta (ie is he lazy VI). It didn't, so there was no reason for me to decide that his behaviour is a town tell for him.

5) Regarding claim/selfchoose. I knew Starbuck could do this as a town from her play in one of the recent games. I could see her doing this a scum as well, to lessen the building pressure and understanding that nobody would seriously consider choosing volunteer. In her 75 i didn't like her "I try to look at things from all angles when I am town and I'm doing that here", since this isn't just an explanation, but an introduction of selfmeta that she is aware about.

6) You quote 2402 and 2493, and say that my
"only argument that Scumhunter is scum is that he's too lazy to post"
. Yet anpther blatant misrepresentation. I didn't say that he is scum in that posts at all, i am pushing him
to post content or replace
.

7)
Pandora wrote:Scum don't get confused and scum are bad people who aren't naive.
Do you really believe that and still play magic? Naive players get their roles randomly. And scum get confused left and right.

8) So you think, that Feysal pushing Timeater makes Timeater more likely to be a town? Yeah, let's forget this is multiball and Feysal was a traitor, most likely not recruited.

9) Should i go into tiny details every time i post something? If you didn't understand it then - ask. Why wait? It is simple as that. AV was doing things that i consider fishy, and i listed them. Timeater became real active once the attention turned towards AV, so i began to suspect them to be scum buddies.

10)
Pandora wrote:For someone who was eager to get some content out of this slot you sure didn't seem to care to talk about any of the content once you got it.
That wasn't a content, that was emotional outburst. Sometimes i think i can recognize genuine emotions from fake, and i tend to believe that town shows genuine emotions more often than scum, but that's it. If he were working on reread, or the reads, and posted analysis/conclusions - that would be a content for me.

So, to sum it up, my read on Pandora is shattered. Twisting things around and blatant misrepresentations are a scum tell in my eyes. Town has no need for this.
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Post Post #3652 (isolation #132) » Wed Oct 31, 2012 4:00 am

Post by kortul »

In post 3648, Pandora wrote:Why did you not try to push the read you claimed to believe in harder!
I do not sit on vanity wagons. And after i switched i did try to either prove my PoV, or understand where i am wrong, which is obvious from my conversation with Regfan (3316-3320).

In post 3648, Pandora wrote:
In post 3644, kortul wrote:
@Pandora - i remembered one thing i wanted to ask you regarding your claim. Why did you target Lyanna during night 1, and not Shadow? Chances for him being a target for all sorts of powers were high, given his claim, and that's where your role shines, since that information could be useful for checking future claims.

Because I thought he would die and catching a 'the cop/torturer was killed!' didn't seem like a useful power. There was no reason to expect any -scum- powers beyond a nightkill to be targetting him. Are you suggesting I should have tried to catch the doctor? :V Also because I am a Voyeur, and watching cute girls at night is what voyeurs do.
Doctor, bodyguard, watcher, roleblocker, serial killer, nobody targeting, should i continue? I didn't mention less common Rolestopper and Motivator, that were claimed and fliped already. Your role is about confirming something, and those are roles that you can confirm or bust later, and this was the most powerful role claimed and likely most popular target.
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Post Post #3657 (isolation #133) » Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:41 am

Post by kortul »

We have enough walls already. Think what you want. Taking away all the rhetoric, Pandora is telling that i am full of crap because i didn't point at anything that shows what Starbuck has ever done that could be considered scummy. And this was said in response to a post, where i listed two things that Starbuck did that could be considered scummy. But i do not want to nitpick, and it is true that i didn't see any strong scum or town tells from the Starbuck, only from outside interactions, and that's why i was trying to get anything from the replacements to improve my read on the slot.

In the end i do not feel bad about my vote yesterday, since i think that for a town it is better to make a mistake on day 5, than double guess in a critical situation during later days.
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Post Post #3658 (isolation #134) » Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:44 am

Post by kortul »

In post 3578, Regfan wrote:Starbucks slot has been a constant scum-read or at least focus for majority of the room all game, so you never coming out and explaining town-reasoning or stating a town-read plainly on the slot for the most part doesn't make sense. Also for one Starbuck isn't exactly a newbie, she's been around for a few years and derp-play doesn't always mean town. And yes, I noticed you stating 'Time replaced into Starbuck-town-slot' which is what I'm talking about, there was a shift from you not taking a completely solid stance on the slot and avoiding calling it anything to you calling it uberobvtown and the jump feels manufactured, while Scumhunter was in the slot you never stated such certainty that the slot was town, you even so I really can't follow your thought process.
Pandora, this post was almost before a lynch and wasn't answered yesterday.
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Post Post #3665 (isolation #135) » Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:02 am

Post by kortul »

@AV
- guess i am even more scummy than you think, i said in thread that Shinori won't live long several times. And "enough walls" was after my comments, were you reading those 10 posts backwards?

When i say reread, i don't mean last 10 posts, or several first pages. I do complete ISOs, when i have at least an hour to spend, should finish on weekend.

Meanwhile, i have a question for your reasoning behind Magua read - how "potential ThorBuddy" translates into "leaning scum" read, if Thor was obvtown for you all the time?
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Post Post #3668 (isolation #136) » Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:20 am

Post by kortul »

Just look at the previous page yourself. I tried to answer as much as possible without quotes, long explanations, etc. After seeing a wall in response, i saw no reason to continue. Regardless of your alignment, do you really think somebody will read through them to see who is right and who is wrong.

Did you stop at those 13 pages yesterday?
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Post Post #3695 (isolation #137) » Fri Nov 02, 2012 10:56 pm

Post by kortul »

Finished reread of Magua and BBmola. My opinion on Magua - slightly leaning town. He is open enough in his reads, there weren't suspicious or forced read changes or votes, he is consistent. Together with the absence of scum tells, that accumulates in a townish read over long run. As for the BBmolla - i still have no idea, neither logically nor on a gut level. I skimmed over his other games, they all look the same to me. I don't see recent reads/opinions to agree or disagree with. Paranoia remains. Still for reread Pandora, Minimum and Zdenek.

Since this is my first multiball game (not counting games with SK), i have no experience whether it is right day to start massclaim, and i no longer trust Pandora to go with suggestion at once. You already know my opinion (was ok with it since yesterday), i know that Tyene and 4nx were ok with it yesterday, Magua was strongly against it, and i don't remember Plum commenting on this. Hope Magua and Plum will tell their thoughts soon. If they agree to it, i am willing to go first, since i will go for a week v/la (business trip) on Sunday evening, and don't want to delay popcorn chain.
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Post Post #3714 (isolation #138) » Sun Nov 04, 2012 11:48 am

Post by kortul »

Didn't have time to do the rest of ISOs, was busy gathering things for the business trip and reading in the other game on site, where deadline is close. Saved needed ISOs on a notebook, will process them over the trip.
Mod, going v/la for a week for a business trip after the post.
I do hope to find an access to internet at least once.

Nacho posted right on time, starting massclaim. I am Harys Swyft, Vanilla Townie. Role PM had nothing special, a quote, mention that i am Master of Coin, and some flavor.

Thor665 is next.
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Post Post #3892 (isolation #139) » Sat Nov 10, 2012 5:34 am

Post by kortul »

I am back home, will catch up and post in the evening.
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Post Post #3897 (isolation #140) » Sat Nov 10, 2012 11:19 am

Post by kortul »

Trip was pretty busy, so had time to reread only Pandora and Minimum. Updated the reads whle catching up today. Since Zdenek is not a likely candidate for today lynch, will reread him on day 6, if both of us will live through the night.

After rereading Pandora, i am again leaning town on him. I like his play on Day 1. Don't like his attack on Shinori, who claimed on day 2 power role that is actually dangerous to scum teams. Don't like his attack on me today, based on twisting things around, it felt like testing water whether i would be an easy mislynch or not. But the thing that makes me think he is town after all is his claim - his voyeur result on night 4 was confirmed later by Minimum, so unless they belong to the same scum faction, his role is true. And given our PRs, this role makes sense as town and no sense as scum. Still believe that watching Shadow on day 1 would be more correct play for checking claims on later days, but that's his decision.

I am leaning town on Minimum as well. Generally like the play on days 1 and 4, still think that defence of Stefan was a town tell, and their check on DCL meta clears them from being Stannis aligned for me. If Ces and Mina tend to bus a lot they still might be Aegon aligned, but the defence of Stefan then would be an overkill. Next is their claim. When i saw it, with farther clarification, i was looking for a possible use of it, if claim is true. Nothing. If it always returns guilty, it is useless. As a day power it isn't trackable by any claimed roles. Essentially it is either tantalizing VT role, or inspired fake claim, with wifom logic which is correct, so i am judging Minimum based on the play, not claim.

@Minimum
- checking Plum today would give you an idea whether you are sane now. If you are town, check tomorrow Plum or yourself (if your role allows that, not sure).

@BBmola
, i am less paranoid now, Nacho explanation in 3804 makes sense. Still, i have a question now - when i mentioned my paranoia about you, you asked whether i "think Aegon has two informed roles", so i assumed that means that your role is Informed as well. But during massclaim you claimed to be Knowledgable, not Informed, so what did you mean by your question to me?

@AV
- in 3744 you mentioned my words from a Day 2. When did you read them, since during the reread you stoped on page 13?
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Post Post #3898 (isolation #141) » Sat Nov 10, 2012 11:26 am

Post by kortul »

Regarding 4nxi3ty. I had some suspicions about Mockingjaye play, don't remember anything special about 4nx play, except for his opinion flip on Regfan. Later this flip become clear, it was consistent with the information from his claim that Regfan is Cercei, after which i was waiting to see if 4nx would be killed (hoped the situation would resolve itself). The reason is simple - his claim doesn't make sense as scum, and is somewhat inconsistent as town.

If 4nx is scum:
If his faction knew that Regfan is Cercei from the start of the game, i believe Regfan would be dead on earlier days. Which means that they learned it during night 4, and 4nx
has the name cop power
(he claimed after Shinori said he saw investigator that night, without any idea whom he saw). If it is 1-shot, why wait for the night 4 to use it? And why on Regfan, almost conf town by now, instead of simply killing him? It makes little sense. And if it is multi-shot, why on earth there were no cross-kills or sure day lynches?

If 4nx is town:
The 1-shot name cop spent on Regfan isn't something i approve, but it is consistent with his suspicions the previous day. And having 1-shot (if spent) bulletproof allows to wait for the name cop use. Inconsistent is the third power, 1-shot roleblocker, i couldn't pinpoint what's wrong with it, until the explanation from Plums Yo Mamma.

To sum it up - 4nx clearly has 1-shot name cop power, and waiting for a night 4 and then using it on almost conf-town points towards him to be town. 1-shot roleblocker is inconsistent. So far we've seen only goon scum - could it be that our mod put a bunch of roleblockers into this game just as a means to stop a kill, in that case i can see this setup possible.

If i am wrong or missing something here, i am interested in opinion from Plums Yo Mamma, Magua, Tyene, Zdenek and Pandora - ie those whom i think are town and who suspect 4nx. Just read it carefully please, don't skim. Even if you think i am scum (Pandora), think on the logic of the events.

I suspect Thor more than 4nx, and looking at the wagons, 4nx wagon had practically no resistance, while Thor wagon is always somewhere there, but never close to a lynch. So i'd prefer lynching Thor today.

@4nx
- i think you still didn't give a full name of you role, what is it?
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Post Post #3899 (isolation #142) » Sat Nov 10, 2012 11:29 am

Post by kortul »

VOTE: Thor665

It is night already, i had little sleep on the trip, so off to bed. Have some family duties tomorrow, but should be able to answer or comment.
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Post Post #3915 (isolation #143) » Sat Nov 10, 2012 9:52 pm

Post by kortul »

Of all the people whom i asked for input, only Nacho gave an answer to what was asked. All the rest just ignored my points and questions. This is bad attitude for a town... But Nacho did show the points i was missing or not aware. I had no idea that Role cop in Theme games shows the names as well, that means that his powers are indeed slpit Torturer. And the point of checking Timeater is valid, he was one of the leading wagons for two days. Also, i realized, that if 4nx used some other power on Night 4, when he heard Shinori claiming watching some investigative power, that would mean that 4nx wasn't watched, and could fakeclaim using cop. All this means the claim can be fake regarding cop power, so the likelyhood of whole claim being fake increased considerably.

With claim out of the way, I am no longer against this wagon.

VOTE: 4nx

Thor, that was only one sentence, read it again. How can you misread it, if not skimming?

Zdenek, Regfan was strong town in my eyes, and i doubt more that 1 or 2 players suspected him, so that is as close to conf town for me as possible. And for the record, i think Mockingjaye (4nx) was more likely to be Aegon scum.
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Post Post #3920 (isolation #144) » Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:28 am

Post by kortul »

I don't understand why both factions are not trying to kill each other already. I'm afraid town is doomed without crosskills, but still it isn't a reason to give up. Will reread Zdenek over this week.

VOTE: Thor665
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Post Post #3926 (isolation #145) » Tue Nov 13, 2012 7:30 am

Post by kortul »

@Magua - he fits both factions from the memory.
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Post Post #3930 (isolation #146) » Tue Nov 13, 2012 9:21 am

Post by kortul »

@Minimum, just remembered. Try to use your ability on yourself, or if that isn't possible for some reason, on me. Or on some dead town, if it is allowed. Even small chance that you are sane now is worth checking.
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Post Post #3934 (isolation #147) » Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:04 am

Post by kortul »

Magua, i don't know Faraday modding stile, but this isn't a bastard game. And being logical i do hope that Paranoid Cop, who is aware of being paranoid from the start, has some uses. BBmola claims to have a bulletproof that expired on some day. Why Paranoia can't be cured by some action (like watching someone die, or being a target of some ability) or by being alive on certain day? Checking this costs nothing.
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Post Post #3935 (isolation #148) » Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:07 am

Post by kortul »

Every other claimed role so far (including Pandora) had some practical uses. *shrug*
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Post Post #3937 (isolation #149) » Tue Nov 13, 2012 10:37 am

Post by kortul »

@AV
- you are polling opinions on me and Thor, but what is your read on Thor? You mention him a lot, but i don't remember how do you read him. And you forgot to answer my yesterday question. In 3744 you mentioned my words from a Day 2. When did you read them, since during the reread you stoped on page 13?
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Post Post #3959 (isolation #150) » Wed Nov 14, 2012 5:22 am

Post by kortul »

Hmm, what a strange day. Those whom i consider likely to be town do some questionable things, and Thor of all people did a town thing and unvoted.

In the best case there are at least 2 scum alive, in the worst case 4 scum alive, i suspect there are 3 out there. And Pandora without hesitation brings the wagon to L-1. You want to cut all interactions and end the day quickly? At least now i feel much better about Zdenek - he had a perfect chance to hammer me, and i doubt anyone would call him on this, given his yesterday reads.

And Magua attack on my request to Minimum is ridiculous. If you are town, you already know the result. And if you talk about logic, look at the night kills. If i were scum, why would i want Tyene dead, who was one of the few who sad nothing bad about me, or Plum/Nacho, who considered Thor scum? Killing someone like Pandora or Av, who are not likely to be lynched and who suspected me would be more logical.

I am not Pandora, and do not have a clear picture of who is who, therefore have to spend the time we have to try and find some clues - interactions of Mocking/4nx, reread of Thor, reread of Zdenek (less priority now). But the real life is more important, so this goes slow and won't happen right now. Those who are bored, know everything, don't have ideas what to research or want a speed lynch, go ahead - if you are town, acting without thinking is sure way to lose a game, and if you are scum, i hope you will expose yourself in process and will be crosskilled.
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Post Post #3963 (isolation #151) » Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:21 am

Post by kortul »

In post 3960, Magua wrote:Right. I thought this yesterday about you, specifically, because I wanted your input in the 4nxi3ty lynch.
And i gave my
thoughts
on 4nx lynch, and my view on his claim. You had a week to see it, and i had like half an hour in the evening for update and thoughts. And of course wagon wasn't scum motivated, since all my town reads were on it. That's why i asked for input after that, to see if i missed something, and only Nacho responded with actual content. Was it so hard to answer like he did? Do you want to discuss things, or snap at anything that doesn't fit your picture of reality?

In post 3961, Thor665 wrote:
In post 3959, kortul wrote:or Plum/Nacho, who considered Thor scum?

This is calling me town (or at least 'not scum with Kortul').
Discuss.
Hmm? This is definitely not calling you town (unless you asked those who believe that i am scum). I think that you are scummy (yet you managed to surprise me with unvote), and Plum/Nacho thought that you are scum. You can figure out the rest.
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Post Post #3967 (isolation #152) » Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:42 am

Post by kortul »

That's why i said "
unless you asked those who believe that i am scum
". I am not scum, therefore that wasn't me calling you town, i don't want everyone else get wrong ideas.
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Post Post #3968 (isolation #153) » Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:47 am

Post by kortul »

Magua, i have a feeling that you were reading my yesterday post the same way you read today. This will lead us nowhere. If you are town, either snap out of this, or be ready to write down another lose point in your win-lose as a town score. Sitting in confirmation bias during the last days is the worst thing we can do.
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Post Post #3970 (isolation #154) » Wed Nov 14, 2012 7:13 am

Post by kortul »

Your understanding is correct. I think i said that in my previous post to you (first sentence). Maybe i wasn't clear.
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Post Post #3973 (isolation #155) » Wed Nov 14, 2012 8:10 am

Post by kortul »

Thor, that's pointless. I am not scum. I do not belong to a group of those who think that i am scum, so your conclusions do no apply to me. And i told my current read on you on this very page already. I don't believe you don't understand this.
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Post Post #3977 (isolation #156) » Wed Nov 14, 2012 8:40 am

Post by kortul »

AV, i am arguing because Thor went from correctly interpreting logic in my post to playing dumb and misrepresenting the conclusions all of a sudden. He is just digging his own grave, and i help him here, consider this as my last gift to the town.

Thor, what part of "Kortul scum won't care about the alignment of Thor and won't kill a person ready to lynch Thor over Kortul" you suddenly don't understand?
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Post Post #3980 (isolation #157) » Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:31 am

Post by kortul »

1) "lynch Thor over Kortul".
2) One example is enough. I gave two already. Do a legwork, or look at my wagon.
3) Off to sleep.
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Post Post #4007 (isolation #158) » Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:09 pm

Post by kortul »

Had rereading session yesterday evening. Finished 4nx - no clear relational tells from his side. There are some questionable read changes, but will recheck again in context on weekend. Reread Jal - my opinion on her actions remained the same. Still rereading Thor. I thought i noticed something, but after double checking found out i remembered incorrectly, so have to return to the slow reading. Meanwhile i have two questions - Thor, after you replaced, did you look at the dead pile on the first page at least once, and if yes - when and why? And did you do any ISOs in this game, or some searches? It would help me to understand your thought process and awareness of the earlier events in some cases during reread.
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Post Post #4015 (isolation #159) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 5:34 am

Post by kortul »

Ok, finished the reread of Thor. Things i like about him - his unvote today and the explanation behind it. But that's about it. Things i don't like - too defensive, vanity focus (Zdenek) for a long time, and occasional back-and-forth while playing with words, subtly (or not) twisting the meaning or conclusions. Like he did today.

Or a different example, in 2860 Thor refers to the Storm of Swords game, where scum Zdenek was talking to town Thor. As far as i understand, Thor points are that
"Thor changes scum and town reads quickly and without explanation. Scummy Zdenek hops on this"
and
"He also kept demanding that I explain how I saw holes in his logic"
. Several times he repeats the words scum(my) Zdenek, trying to imprint the idea. And why town Zdenek in any game would not demand to explain holes in the logic, and would not hop on the read changes that are quick and without explanation? Next question of Thor was "Any evidence of Zdenek expecting me to be "better"?" The game happened a year and a half ago, and Thor gave two later games where Zdenek saw him playing "better" game as a scum. I'd say it is only natural to expect him to play more or less at the same level in this game.

I took a look at the game (Storm of Swords) anyway, to see is it the correct picture. It is correct, but i found completely different Thor there - not bossy, arrogant and with last_word_should_be_mine attitude. As i said, it was a year and a half ago, so i took a look at some recent games, where he flipped or the games finished (Politics, Experimental, Mini 1347, Mini 1348, Atomic, Mirror). It was skimming, just to get a feeling - and it is the same as from Storm of Swords, for me town Thor in those games is less aggressive and arrogant than scum Thor in those games.

I do not like to rely on something, that cannot be explained clearly, but experience from many RL mafia games taught me, that if you cannot logically conclude who is mafia and who is town, you have to try to balance things first, and if that fails, rely on first impressions. Unless Thor, or those who have Thor as a town read can show logical explanation why Thor is town (or cannot be scum), i will have to rely on impressions here.

Combined with my suspicions on Jal, i think that Thor is scum. As for the faction, i think he is more likely to be Aegon. First reason is my analysis of Jal play from earlier days. Second reason - in 2886 Regfan asked Thor to read mockinjaye and 4nx, in 2887 Thor requested sweet points or cute case, and in 2890 Regfan presented that. Thor just ignored this and never commented. Stannis faction is possible, but less likely.
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Post Post #4016 (isolation #160) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 5:36 am

Post by kortul »

Since the day is still going, and activity is low, i began to think on how many scum are there.

1) The chances of 2+2 scum remaining are really low. 2 partners from the same faction should be eager to lynch anyone without problems - as we see, not much happens today, everyone is waiting for something. And i was at L-1 once already, and at L-2 for a long time with a new vote on me, which means that with 2 pairs any pair would be able to lynch me already. Hell, my vote is on Thor from the beginning of the day, unless Minimum and Zdenek is a scum pair (and in that case Zdenek would just hammer me), someone who isn't Thor partner would bait already by placing Thor at L-1.

2) If we have 2+1 scum remaining, i think that Thor is likely to be the lone scum here. If he had a scum partner, there was no reason for him to unvote me, since he is the only other wagon, and getting some town cred with a risk of being lynched himself is not worth it. Without partner, he knows he will go down tomorrow, and should do unexpected things to try and remove some pressure.

3) 1+1 scum remaining is possible as well. I already explained why Minimum and Zdenek are not likely to be a scum pair, and if they are both town, scum pair would hammer Thor already, and if one of them is scum, with nothing much happening for some time a scum partner would be tempted to put lone Thor at L-1.

One more thing - i begin to suspect Magua, since after i suggested to Minimum to check the sanity again, he went to the rage mode and is sitting on me while criticizing Thor, and i don't see why town Magua should be so agitated.

I am off for today. Don't promise Zdenek reread tomorrow, but should be able to do it within 2-3 days, if i am still alive.
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Post Post #4028 (isolation #161) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 11:10 pm

Post by kortul »

@Thor - i can't say for Zdenek, but i wouldn't remember how someone played as a town in a game a year and a half ago. More recent games would be more fresh in memory. I may return to this after Zdenek reread. I listed the games i skimmed through. I am not trying to convince anyone that your play is different, i give my own feelings, that influence my own read.

In post 4017, Thor665 wrote:
In post 4015, kortul wrote:As for the faction, i think he is more likely to be Aegon. First reason is my analysis of Jal play from earlier days. Second reason - in 2886 Regfan asked Thor to read mockinjaye and 4nx, in 2887 Thor requested sweet points or cute case, and in 2890 Regfan presented that. Thor just ignored this and never commented. Stannis faction is possible, but less likely.

Is that the only Anxiety interaction you're basing this on?
Because I had a lot more than that.
At that moment you thought that all wagons are on town (or likely town), and regfan offered an alternative and at your request an explanation. You ignored it. That's just one of the reasons why i think you are Aegon.

I am not 100% sure that you are scum, and working now towards other reads, but so far you are the most suspicious. I don't see any clear and consistent cases to consider, and don't see anyone working to make them. At least Minimum and Zdenek are consistent in their suspicions on you over the days, Pandora play is also consistent with changes in the game.
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Post Post #4045 (isolation #162) » Mon Nov 19, 2012 11:14 am

Post by kortul »

Rereading Zdenek. Noticed something that i missed during Pandora reread. Nothing to do with Zdenek himself, but may help me with a read on AV slot.

In post 1690, Zdenek wrote:
In post 1136, Pandora wrote:19) Mastermind of Sin -- His posts feel barren, but ~~~events~~~ make me think he's town.

can you elaborate?
Pandora, do you remember, what did you mean by ~~~events~~~ there?
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Post Post #4065 (isolation #163) » Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:18 am

Post by kortul »

Finished the reread of Zdenek. I still think he is more likely to be town. I like that he is working towards his reads, one of the few who replaced in and actually reread the game, and i shared some of his unpopular stances, like i also thought (and still think) that if MoS/AV is Stannis, and indeed has the claimed ability, it would be only logical to use it on Shadow (besides, i just realized, that if by chance Stannis started with 2 members, MoS was alone already (DCL sent to the wall) and where else use the ability?). Don't like Zdenek read flipping on Mjaye/4nx, but in one case it was during his reread, and in the other case 4nx attacked him for switching the read, so it looks not that suspicious, besides his other reads change as well, ie it isn't something tied only to 4nx.

Actually understood where all this
"Any evidence of Zdenek expecting me to be "better"
thing started. In 2857 Zdenek said
"I do not believe that you are this stupid, so my only conclusion is that you are scum pushing nonsensical bullshit."
. I think i called Thor at least once on pretending to be dumb as well, so can understand where some of the Zdeneks suspicions towards Thor appeared.

Will reread Magua next.

So far i suspect Thor and still AV, but i doubt it is 1+1 left, 2+1 is more likely (and it is better to be paranoid than wrong). I can't shake the gut feeling that BBmola can be Aegon traitor, because of Griff thing, his "letter", and if the missing kill on Day 1 belongs to Aegon, there's a chance it wasn't on Shadow after all. But Plum/Nacho analysis of his claim makes sense, besides lynching likely scum is more correct than lynching possible traitor.

PEdit. Huh?
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Post Post #4088 (isolation #164) » Wed Nov 21, 2012 10:10 am

Post by kortul »

In post 3669, AurorusVox wrote:Anyway, I thought I was on at least page 35 and got disheartened when it was only page 13. But I thought fuck it, I'm satisfied with my reads on Minimum, Tyene and BBM. So instead of reading the start of the game with all those extra players and posts, I decided to focus on ISOing the players who I hadn't read the first time around or was not satisfied with.

That leaves Pandora, Thor and Zdenek to do.
AV
, so who do you think is scum, and who is town, and why? Last time you talked about the reads 3 weeks ago, and even then you said you are satisfied with some of them and promised to work on the rest.
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Post Post #4099 (isolation #165) » Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:09 am

Post by kortul »

Finished rereading Magua. Based on his play on previous days i still think he is more likely to be town, for the reasons i explained during previous day. But his play today is off and ruins the picture. I can buy two emotional outbursts, after which i became a strong scum read, but have hard time understanding his play afterwards - wagon on a strong scum read is falling apart, and he is content on just sitting, with a weak attempt to pull just one player, who was there already? Still, that means they are unlikely to be partners with Thor.

@Magua
, i also have some questions after reread.

In post 3719, Magua wrote:Going to be offline for the next few hours, and still working on the Aegon side of things
Did you finish this research?

In post 3780, Magua wrote:At this point, highest person I want to lynch is 4nxiety. Don't like mockingjaye's play from D1; there's jumps, especially around the StefanB wagon at the end of the Day, that don't feel right, especially given mockingjaye having been in previous Eddard Stark games and knowing how they go.
You voted 4nx even before Plum/Nacho presented their reads, and that is good. But the explanation behind this switch is not consistent with your earlier views on mockingjaye's play:

In post 2304, Magua wrote:
Null


4nxi3ty
- Not seeing mockingjaye hate. ISO is just big huge walls which make my head hurt, but seems to be little actual crunch in them. None of the reads are particularly out there one way or another, which is a little scummy, but meh -- D1 scumread list (Shadow, Minimum, Edd) is terribad, but does get revised going into D2, which makes the whole thing seem more legitimate.
What prompted you to change your opinion?

Also, what is your read of Pandora? You mentioned him as null at the beginning, and gave no indications about the read changes, unlike on other players.

In post 3960, Magua wrote:
In post 3959, kortul wrote:And Magua attack on my request to Minimum is ridiculous. If you are town, you already know the result.
That is
exactly
what makes your question to Minimum fluff and worthless. Right there. In a nutshell.
Again, if you are town, try to look at this from non-Magua point of view. I don't remember mod saying anything about you being an innocent child, so why not check, even if the chances are really small? All it takes is good will and one PM. It doesn't use any resources that are needed elsewhere. Do you see this day full of life and discussions, or do i somehow distract Minimum from anything?
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Post Post #4100 (isolation #166) » Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:11 am

Post by kortul »

I am tired of this game, where most everyone is waiting for something to happen. And where Thor today is the one who makes sense sometimes and Magua is not. I do not have strong town reads, the closest thing is Pandora, followed by Minimum, then Zdenek. Magua and BBmola somewhere in the middle, and Thor and AV are likely to be scum. At this point i am actually more sure about AV, but for some reason everyone thinks that his claim makes him town now, and i doubt his wagon has any chances today.

Hmm, i think i will be v/la on weekend, so before going to sleep will try to gather my thoughts and clearly and consisely explain why i think that AV is scum, in a separate post.
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Post Post #4101 (isolation #167) » Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:19 pm

Post by kortul »

1) We know that Lyanna tried to target Shadow during Night 1, and obviously failed. But Shadow ability gave a result, that he was sure consistent with it not being blocked. Therefore the claim that MoS targeted Shadow with his ability on Night 1 is true. That also means that he is definitely not Aegon aligned.

2) By now it is pretty obvious, that Stannis faction started the game with just 2 or 3 members. DCL was sent to the wall during Day 1, so during night 1 the faction essentially had just 1 or 2 members, Stannis + ??? (those who are familiar with the game, were there any name characters who can fit this faction?). If MoS is Stannis scum, there is a good chance he had no teammates left to protect with his ability. On the other hand, protecting Shadow on night 1 will give a perfect claim for a future days, while giving Shadow a chance to target bvoight, ie blocking a claimed town Vig, or exposing rival scum.

3) Let's see on interactions and relationships with redFF/DCL. After Tyene pushed redFF during day 1, MoS attacked her back, saying nothing and not mentioning redFF. When asked for explanation, his answer was That one post, though, has several things VERY wrong with it. He refused to tell the reasons, asking Mina telling first what she didn't like about Tierce post. And tried to tie Tierce to redFF: If redFF ever flips scum, I'd bet money that this is Tierce as a scumbuddy here.

Spoiler: Story continues
Actually, in that post he finally said what were those things he found wrong:
In post 568, Mastermind of Sin wrote:1) Choosing someone that you call a bad lynch (as Mina pointed out)
2) Calling out redFF's scumminess, but then neither choosing nor voting him, instead Choosing someone else for a shit reason
3) The little joke flipped off at the end about CES's record of not getting lynched doesn't sit right with me either, but that's more of a gut thing.

After the discussion, he changed the story:
In post 585, Mastermind of Sin wrote:That said, I did actually look at the vote count to see if you were voting redFF, but I just looked at the most recent one in 552 when I was responding to Mina. Didn't really think about you changing your vote, meh.
So, in 336 he said that Tyene post was real bad, in 434 asked Mina to give her reasons first, and in 568 finally said what was bad about the post, with one of the reasons the absense of vote. Since he looked "at the most recent VC", the reason was invented at that moment, not when he actually attacked the Tyene post.

Once redFF ties entered the picture, he backtracked - Who said my vote was based on the redFF comment? I certainly didn't. I only noticed the redFF thing later. And finally admitted:
In post 593, Mastermind of Sin wrote:Anyway, it's not like I went and did some sort of detailed analysis before voting you, that would just be silly and require a whole bunch of unnecessary effort. Point #1 is the reason I originally voted you. Points 2 and 3 happened later when I was talking about the post with Mina.
So,
several VERY wrong things
transformed into one point, and even that he got from Mina, who explained it after his request. Basicly, he attacked Tyene, but when called on his words, failed to give even one reasoning behind the attack.

Spoiler: DCL protection
When DCL choose wagon formed, MoS once again tried to stop it.
In post 1324, Mastermind of Sin wrote:What the hell happened while I was gone?

Where did this DCLX wagon come from? I don't really understand why he's being wagoned here.
<...>

Unchoose, Choose: Feysal
But at the same time he tried to make it look as if it had nothing to do with DCL:
In post 1330, Mastermind of Sin wrote:@Mina: Are you sure you didn't mean to address those questions to someone else? I haven't really said anything to indicate I thought the DCLX wagon was terrible...I just don't understand what caused it. In my skim of the last 8 pages or so I didn't really see a lot of reasoning for voting him, and I can't recall DCLX doing anything so far this game that would have made me even consider voting him. It's not so much that I have a town read on DCLX (I'm decidedly null due to lack of evidence in either direction as far as I've seen), but I don't understand what caused momentum to swing his way all of a sudden. The wagon built so quickly that it must have been some huge and obvious scumtell, but I don't recall seeing anything like that.

And continues to defend in 1343


Conclusion - MoS perfectly fits as DCL partner. And with a small faction protection actually makes sense.

I won't comment the play of AV, since i think he was saved only by his claim. And didn't improve since that time.
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Post Post #4124 (isolation #168) » Sun Nov 25, 2012 10:55 am

Post by kortul »

Minimum, i thought it was because you have a day action (claimed). Well, it doesn't weaken my points (just opens low possibility of MoS/AV being Aegon after all).

Nothing much changed on weekend, except for vote switch. Off to sleep.
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Post Post #4144 (isolation #169) » Mon Nov 26, 2012 8:58 am

Post by kortul »

Thor, i hope this isn't just a show for the sake of it, so guess your are town after all. I feel sad, but do not regret voting you, since you were my second strongest scum read, and the only viable alternative for the whole day was my lynch, and i know i am town. I do regret that most likely i was wrong about you being scum, since that means that without crosskill we are doomed. And apathy is the main reason for this, i think.

And Magua, do you even read my posts? Or what people answer?

Plum/Nacho wrote:I doubt he has a name cop power; what he actually has is a rolecop power, meaning that it's
my prediction that he used his rolecop early
on Regfan and didn't kill him until later because the scumteam was looking for power roles. It also doesn't make sense to use a namecop role on a suspicion of yours who hasn't claimed, and it didn't make sense for him to claim when he did.
It would have made more sense if he used the name cop power to see if Tim really was Jamie Lannister
(since that would confirm him as town and stop the lynch from going through), but he didn't because he was looking for threats and not looking for ways to help the town.
The bolded parts are logical. First one helped me to realize, that if 4nx didn't use claimed power that night, he knew that Shinori saw someone else, and he can safely claim. And point about Tim shows the absence of town motivation in the usage of claimed power. Show me where that was discussed before?
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Post Post #4150 (isolation #170) » Mon Nov 26, 2012 9:16 am

Post by kortul »

Thor, i said the same during the day, that i am tired of people doing nothing. What did you expect me to do? I presented a case on my stronger scum read, AV, and only Minimum commented on that, nobody said they are willing to switch. You were arguing with many, but pushing at Zdenek, whom i consider more likely to be town.
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Post Post #4156 (isolation #171) » Wed Nov 28, 2012 10:41 pm

Post by kortul »

Quick thoughts. Unless one of the scum is bulletproof, or AV is Stannis with more than 1-shot rolestopper and alive partner, scum cross-killed on BBmola. I can kinda see why Stannis would try to check him finally (even though it is silly), but why would Aegon shoot BBmola? He makes no sense as Stannis scum, and wasn't obv town either. Either Aegon do have a traitor available and still looking for him, or BBmola was too unpredictable.

Anyway, we are most likely in MyLo situation now. If the remaining scum are 2+1, killing lone scum will be game over. If it is 1+1, outcome would be more dependant on the night events, though lynching a scum today would improve the chances. If we have 2 alive Aegon, the initial setup was 5 - 2(+1), and if we have 2 alive Stannis, the initial setup was 4(+1?) - 3(+1). Second version looks more balanced, but then the information about Aegon forces divided doesn't make much sense, so i am leaning on the 2 (Aegon) + 1 (Stannis) or 1 + 1(+1) remaining.

I want to lynch AV, but if he is Stannis and we have 2 Aegon, the game would be over. Thinking about Magua, but who can be his partner? Either i am wrong on one of my my stonger townreads, or it is 1 + 1 after all (and in that case i feel better about lynching AV). And if i am wrong about two of my townreads, then if Magua is still locked on me i will watch from the dead QT soon anyway.

Will be busy and won't do any deep analysis until December 7 (my exam), except for some yesterday day quick reading to see if anything will catch my eye.
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Post Post #4164 (isolation #172) » Thu Nov 29, 2012 9:31 pm

Post by kortul »

@Minimum
- i doubt we have 2+2 remaining, previous day was too slow. If we have 2+1 scum remaining, 2 Stannis and 1 Aegon means more balanced initial setup 3+1 - 4, but why and how Aegon were divided?

Spoiler: Wild guess
Unless this is splitting for 2 and 2, with pairs having separate QT (and possibly no knowledge about the other pair), and kills based on some priority - that would be interesting mechanics. Does our mod like to experiment?

And to answer your question, if i were Stannis scum, i would have killed Magua, and if i were Aegon scum, i would have killed AV. Very likely to hit a rival, and at worst it removes one tunneler from me.

@Magua
, why would you kill only me at night, if you think that i make sense only as Aegon scum? And why do you think that there is zero reason for MoS rolestopping Shadow - you do not believe that grounds for a
good claim
is more important than holding 1 shot protection trying
to guess when
your partner (if he is even alive) will be shot at night in the large game?
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Post Post #4167 (isolation #173) » Fri Nov 30, 2012 6:01 am

Post by kortul »

Ok, we can have different opinions on the first part (Stannis-rolestopper).

Your last sentence actually opens another logical view on the situation for me, but why AV cannot use "i know one kill is missing on night 1 so I can claim to be the one who blocked kill on Shadow" being Stannis? Ie if he isn't rolestopper, then he can be any alignment at all, both factions are possible.
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Post Post #4169 (isolation #174) » Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:38 am

Post by kortul »

Guess you somehow mixed bvoight and BBmola in your head (and in the post).

I can see some logic, though, if Aegon indeed are divided somehow, the part deciding on the kill might have no idea that bvoigt is their partner.

There are at least three more possibilities for the missing kill N1:
- one of the factions (more likely Aegon) tried to kill BBmola (bulletproof that night), who already came up with his vague information. That would also explain no attempts to kills him for a long time
- Plessiezarus (Skinner, Non Consecutive
Roleblocker
) blocked one of the killers
- scum crosskilled on one of the masons (most unlikely)

*sigh* We can go on forever, guess i will just ignore all claims for now, none of them is confirmable anyway. Claim isn't the main reason why i think AV is scum, anyway.

@Pandora
- i thought about your no-lynching idea - it improves town chances for the win only in 2+1 scenario, where we are about to lynch a lone scum. In all other cases i think lynch of someone suspicious is still better - even if it is mislynch, it improves chances for scum crosskill in the night.
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Post Post #4180 (isolation #175) » Sat Dec 01, 2012 9:22 pm

Post by kortul »

^^
Same questions. I can see how AV buing busy in RL may explain one missing kill for the night, but not the part quoted by Pandora.
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Post Post #4186 (isolation #176) » Sun Dec 02, 2012 11:02 am

Post by kortul »

Took a look at AV posts - during the night period he posted 3 identical messages in three different games, so i don't think he would forget to submit a kill here while he was around, all it takes is one PM. Still think he is scum, though.

@Zdenek, i think i remember you saying before that MoS possibly protecting Shadow doesn't exclude him from being Stannis. Did you change your view on this? If yes, what's the reason?
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Post Post #4192 (isolation #177) » Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:58 am

Post by kortul »

Minimum, for me it sounds more like Feysal thought that there is a reasonable chance that MoS is his teammate. He is analytic player, and spent some efforts to check MoS stance on Salamence/Saporeint, it would be also logical to check whether MoS is possible teammate. I believe that MoS stance on redFF/DCL is bad, yet Feysal didn't mention this at all. If he wanted an option to mislynch him at any time, tying him to Stannis would be more logical, after he said that MoS is less likely to be Aegon.

Can
everyone
(including AV) give their opinions, whether 5 Aegon - 2+1 Stannis scenario is possible/makes any sense (ie 2 Aegon remaining)?
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Post Post #4197 (isolation #178) » Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:02 pm

Post by kortul »

In post 4186, kortul wrote:@Zdenek, i think i remember you saying before that MoS possibly protecting Shadow doesn't exclude him from being Stannis. Did you change your view on this? If yes, what's the reason?
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Post Post #4215 (isolation #179) » Wed Dec 05, 2012 7:28 am

Post by kortul »

Ok, everyone gave their input to my question. Everybody thinks that 5 - 2+1 is unlikely. If we do have 2 Stannis around, even they "agree" with that, which means they are smart enough to blend with a town.

In post 4204, Minimum wrote:3) kortul, you gave your thoughts on Feysal's last post discussing MoS, but what about the one before? What do you think is stronger evidence: my point clearing you as Stannis, or my point clearing AV as Stannis?
As i said, i am busy until my exam, so mostly skimming for now. I just skipped your reasons for clearing me as Stannis, since if they were questionable, you would be called by someone else already. As for your point clearing AV as Stannis, if it's that idea he was siteflaking during the night, i doubt that of all the games he would forget exactly this game. He found time to post in all open games after all. I believe more in my analysis of MoS stance on redFF/DCL.

Since Aegon was Joat, i believe Stannis (character) has some powers as well, so missing kill can be a result of one of such powers.

Finally someone (Minimum) understands me - i am also trying to use logic, and the lack of information about setup is driving me mad. I was mulling over the idea to look for possible pairs for some time today, but simply don't have time until Saturday evening or Sunday. Minimum coming to this separately and generally analyzing things today makes me feel better about the slot. Magua is involved in play as well, and is finally reading and thinking, unlike yesterday.

And did anybody have any common games with AV or knows his playing style? Is he always that passive/lazy?
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Post Post #4222 (isolation #180) » Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:19 pm

Post by kortul »

Quick answers before going to sleep.

In post 4217, Minimum wrote:kortul, I was talking about Feysal's first post, where he essentially clears MoS because he's not Aegon. That sounds like he was genuinely scumhunting, but slipped by only thinking in terms of Aegon/not-Aegon. So if he
did
know his teammates, that's a big strike against MoS being Stannis. The second quote, where he
does
consider MoS as potential Stannis, is more ambiguous, so I wanted feedback on it.
I don't understand, do you think that Feysal
knew
his teammates or not? And why? Will check the original quotes in depth on weekend, but based on this brief, you say that Feysal was mainly scumhunting Aegon. It only makes sense, from his perspective pushing/lynching Aegon advances his win condition, and hunting for Stannis may accidentally give valid points to the town/rivals, so he was less genuine/more vague there. Want to hear your reasoning to compare later.

Minimum wrote:Why does your answer change depending on what scum faction you're on?
I think AV is Stannis scum, so naturally would shoot him if i were Aegon. And if i were Stannis, Magua is more likely to be Aegon than AV, so i would shoot Magua.

AV, if your selfmeta would be with examples (links) that can be checked later, then yes, i am interested. But if it is just a simple statement, than not really.
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Post Post #4241 (isolation #181) » Fri Dec 07, 2012 6:49 am

Post by kortul »

@Minimum, ABR posts are interesting, but Magua not being able to shoot makes sense only if 2 Aegon are still alive, since we had 2 night kills after 4nx lynch.

Exam tomorrow, wish me luck. :)
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Post Post #4248 (isolation #182) » Sat Dec 08, 2012 7:43 am

Post by kortul »

Ok, i am back from studying. Finally my mind can focus on something else. Since i already reread everyone at least twice on the previous days, doing this again would be hardly productive for me, so i will try to look over weekend for possible pairs now. Not sure if anything will come from this, since in the game that long there are lots of interactions, and they are open for interpretation, but that's better than just guessing. I also have some fleeting ideas at the back of my mind, maybe that will finally come to surface during the research.

@Pandora, right now my picks would be AV, Magua, Zdenek. That may change after the research, but not radically - i already thought about the picture where both you and Minimum are scum, and that doesn't fit.
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Post Post #4265 (isolation #183) » Sun Dec 09, 2012 12:02 pm

Post by kortul »

That pairs research was monotonous and boring. While doing it, i remembered Pandora claim of the "Other" result on Minimum, later confirmed and explained by Minimum. So unless they are partners, i don't see Pandora-scum, and he is automatically out from other possible pairs.

Some of the pairs are possible if players are busing/distancing, but everyone is experienced so i don't exclude the possibility. Also, i still think that AV makes sense mostly as Stannis, and Magua is more likely to be Aegon, so the pair is less likely. Magua - Zdenek is possible if i am both wrong about AV and Magua alignments and Magua decided to bus today, which sounds silly.

Pairs possible for AV: AV - Zdenek, AV - Magua (less likely)
Pairs possible for Magua: Magua - AV(less likely), Magua - Zdenek (least likely)
Pairs possible for Zdenek: Zdenek - AV, Zdenek - Minimum (less likely), Zdenek - Magua (least likely)
Pairs possible for Minimum: Minimum - Pandora, Minimum - Zdenek (less likely)
Pairs possible for Pandora: Pandora - Minimum (don't believe, but still possible)

So basicly the choice for lynch for me is between AV and Zdenek. I am much more sure about AV, but lynching Zdenek also covers less likely pair Minimum-Zdenek. Since it is possible only because of continued town read from Minimum on Zdenek through all the game, i have a question first.

@Minimum
, can you explain again (maybe with different words or give examples), why Zdenek is town, and do you still read him as town today?
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Post Post #4276 (isolation #184) » Mon Dec 10, 2012 10:23 pm

Post by kortul »

Zdenek, my notes are at home, so i don't remember exactly why i ruled out Magua-Minimum pair. Several things - interactions, accusations, thoughts on each other while analyzing factions, etc. If you see them as a pair, saying why (instead of asking) would be better, maybe i am missing something. Even if i am wrong, lynching you would be a disaster only if you are the lone scum of any faction, so if you want to plead guilty do so (with proof/details), you are at L-1.

I will be around and hammer in like 5-7 hours from now.
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Post Post #4280 (isolation #185) » Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:33 am

Post by kortul »

VOTE: Zdenek

I just hope that if you are lone scum you would play towards your win condition and say so, at least to live through this day. And if you are town, and believe that Minimum is Stannis scum, you had 2 weeks to find arguments supporting this and push them.
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Post Post #4363 (isolation #186) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:51 am

Post by kortul »

A pity. Going into the night i hoped that we had chances. Was really surprised that AV flipped Aegon.

Wish i actually did look at possible pairs for Pandora. After he switched to Zdenek and put him at L-1 i had a sinking feeling and began to scrutinize his claim, and decided that he might be scum-watcher or something, but at that moment it was too late. Besides, if he remained on AV, game would be over even more reliably.

What happened on the night when BBmola died? I saw no notes in the mod spreadsheet.
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Post Post #4364 (isolation #187) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 2:52 am

Post by kortul »

And congratulations to the winners. :)
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Post Post #4369 (isolation #188) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 5:25 am

Post by kortul »

In post 4366, One Direction wrote:
In post 4363, kortul wrote:What happened on the night when BBmola died? I saw no notes in the mod spreadsheet.

Stannis killed him on the basis they thought he had a decent chance of being Aegon. It's just as well for the game and maybe for them since he site flaked aftwerwards, who knows what a replacement at this stage would have done.
And Aegon? Did AV shot him as well? If yes, why? :)
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Post Post #4372 (isolation #189) » Fri Dec 14, 2012 5:39 am

Post by kortul »

So Minimum was right after all :) But at the same time, lynching AV would be a disaster, if he would be shy to reveal himself as the last Aegon.

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