Trouble in The Cougar's Den (Game over!)

[Reasonably Rational]

I bet Ank was chatting in his scum chat outside his hydra and that's how he slipped. Wagon pls

VOTE: BotLane

I went and looked at the opening post just to be sure my memory wasn't faulty. The mod hasn't specified whether the scum do or do not have day chat. Your statement has an implicit assumption that they do. Care to explain that?

Love,
Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

I will say though, IF BotLane pulled scum and have day chat, it could be a thing since in our last game, they weren't very picky about if they chatted as their solo or their hydra in our Were chat.

RR explicitly saying "chatting in his scum chat" vs chatting in a hydra chat is a more concrete find.

Actually, it was Spiffeh who explicitly said that, which is what I was questioning him about. He skipped beyond RVS silliness and put down a serious vote and suggested that Ank posted out of hydra and suggested that the mistake may have been due to chatting in his scum chat. Implicit in that statement is knowledge/assumption that scum have daytalk, which he can't know ... unless he's scum.

That's why I asked him to explain; however, you jumped in and made a post linking us to having made that statement. That was either an honest mistake on your part, or an attempt to help Spiffeh out of a jam. I would say it's not likely for two scumslips so fast, except I've seen it before and there's almost no way that you could possibly be paying attention and think that we were the ones accusing BotLane, so the most probable case is that you know Spiffeh is the one who slipped but you want people to think it was us for some reason.

I cannot think of any town motive for that. Care to explain yourself?

Love, again,
Drixx

P-Edit: I don't know when the game opened. I just noticed it was open and saw Spiffeh just skip right over RVS to accuse your slot of being scum based upon either knowledge he wouldn't have as town or a really bad assumption. I asked him to explain himself and then Kthxbye came in and intentionally misattributed the thing to us, which seems like an odd mistake in a game with 40 posts, which is why I questioned whether it was actually a mistake or really an attempt to kick up some dust and confusion. It looks and feels like classic scum faux confusion post used to make confusion.

[Reasonably Rational]

How bout this: if 1 is RVS and 10 is the best we got to go on so far from the posting of 2 pages, I'd give it a ten for seriousness

You might want to look at who actually originally said what you voted us for saying, then, since it wasn't us who said it but rather it was us who pointed it out and asked the original post (slipper?) to explain.

It does feel nice to know that someone else seems something wrong with it; however, it would feel

significantly

nicer if you went back and realized it wasn't us who actually said it.

Also, our avatar is from a fantastic and lengthy rationalist fan fiction. If you search for "HPMOR" on google, you are certain to find it.

[Reasonably Rational]

All posts from us are by Drixx so far. I think Cerb is being a lazy layabout or something.

[Reasonably Rational]

That wasn't defensive. When we get defensive about something, you'll know it. We play primarily using logic, decision theory and game theory to figure things out. When something seems really illogical, we tend to notice and push. I don't have a ton of experience with you, but you don't seem to have reacted the way I would have expected scum to react to the push I made.

That just leaves Spiffeh. Interesting that Botlane (the slot Spiffeh referred to) is defending him. I'd like to hear what was going on in Spiffeh's head though. I rather suspect all of us talking about it probably ruins any way to get a good read on his reaction. Still ... already have someone on the list to watch closely and we're not even 50 posts in.

Love,
Drixx

P-Edit: Go read our ISO in Steven Universe before you call that post a novel, LOL.

[Reasonably Rational]

The other part of teridax is here.

I think RR is still living the dream after SU and thinks that everything is a scumslip. I'm not so sure about that. You need to show more stuff.

Sign your posts Mastin.

It is also ridiculously rich (in a funny way) to see you trying to tell someone that they have too high an opinion of themselves.

In RVS stage someone suggested; seriously; a wagon to kill a slot based upon the premise that said slot had scum slipped by posting out of hydra, and they based that on the assertion that said person must have been talking out of hydra in scum chat. He was

very specific

about it being scum chat, which is what caught my attention. Given that he seemed to genuinely think he had found a scumslip in the first post of the game, where has he been for 14 hours, and why on earth are we the bad guys for nothing that something isn't right with that post or its assumptions?


Ceph could have said everything he wanted to say in one post, so why the multiple posts? Trying to add gravitas and cover to jumping onto a wagon you know is shit?


@Ika - Are you soft claiming survivor? That's what I took away from that post last night, and it still looks that way now. You are obviously aware of why neutral parties are problematic mechanically, so why ask a question you already know the answer to? Unless we have a new neutral role with some heretofore unseen mechanical interactions that changes the equation, I do not believe there is a neutral role that gives positive utility to town. The survivor only cares about being alive when the game ends and will betray the town in the end, and so goes into the scum pile (addressing your main question).


P-edit: There's nothing in your post that at all makes it seem like you weren't being genuine Spiffeh. So no, it wasn't obvious. Where did we vote you, by the way? This will be the 6th post we've made, and the other ones were all pretty rapid fire in a back and forth conversation.

[Reasonably Rational]

Caught something in Cephrir's series of posts I didn't see in the first run through.

these things are equally ridiculous. what if, i don't know, ankamius was logged into his regular account because that is what one is generally logged into at any given moment. and hydras use communication methods other than private topics.

Cerberus and I actually ask for a PT to put our discussions into in case anyone is curious, so not

all

hydras use other methods, apparently?

[Reasonably Rational]

Hello everyone!

Teridax: Maybe a little? The whole scum chat post from spiffeh reads as null to me. It's fairly reasonable for people to have the possibility of day chat for scum in mind as they approach the game and attempt to interpret what's going on, so it's really just something which should be noted, but it's far from a scumslip. I haven't talked to Drixx about that post though, so maybe he has some more cause for suspicion than he's expressed here?

Cephrir: That exchange happened before any other conversation happened, seems moderately reasonable for them to continue that conversation, if unusual for them to completely ignore the other exchange(s) occurring. About your other post...how familiar are you with Drixx's D1 play? It's pretty similar to mine, in that neither of us give much weight to the interactions of D1 as far as determining who we find to be most scummy, unless we see something that looks objectively wrong/irrational/indicates knowledge town shouldn't have, and then we follow up that suspicion(Drixx more rabidly than myself). As my words to Teridax indicate, I don't really buy the idea that it was a scum slip as much as Drixx seems to, but it's possible.

The interesting thing here though is that Spiffehs post is as implausible as Drixx's, in terms of actually catching a scum slip in the first few pages, and Spiffeh seems to care about it enough to have voted there and have his vote remain there after speaking up now, but only the post by Drixx draws your attention. Either both "oh man, I found a scum slip" posts are suspect, or neither are, unless there's some other factor that makes you believe one to be more suspect than the other?

Ika: The third party talk is fairly irrelevant, and I don't see how knowledge of that particular aspect of any slots play style works to help town find scum. I see how it helps out third party slots if they want to determine the best way to achieve their win con, as in, is this a town that will let them claim honestly without instantly lynching them, but...it's an unusual thing to be discussing this much on D1, when third parties can't swing the game.

Kthxbye: Just a general question, you stated that the misattribution was a mistake, and it's a perfectly reasonable on that's made fairly often by a lot of people, but I haven't played with you. Is that a common thing when you play? I ask only so I know whether or not I should double check the truth of statements you make about actions others have taken in the game. I tend to just accept peoples posts about what happened in the game at face value, unless something about it doesn't match up with my memory, which is really only infallible with regards to what I post myself in this slot.

Spiffeh: So, that was 100% just RVS+a joke to you? There was no actual suspicion leveled at that slot?

Anyways, I'm here, at work, and will thus be refreshing furiously now that I know the game is live.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

how familiar are you with Drixx's D1 play?

I'm not.

I tend to be fairly pushy to get reactions on day one. There's a super huge downside to how Cerb and I play. It's impossible to draw logical and rational conclusions from an absence of reliable data. It wouldn't take you much time in my ISO to see me using a whole slew of different approaches to getting people to react and respond and give me something to read.

What interests me at the moment is that Spiffeh seemed genuinely serious in that first post, but has showed up and claimed he wasn't, but then decided he should keep the vote on BotLane anyway. I would like to say more, but the ongoing games rule exists.

I had a decent reason to take Spiffeh's opening post seriously, and his reaction to all this back and forth confuses me. From a purely rational perspective, I notice that I am confused.

The interesting thing here though is that Spiffehs post is as implausible as Drixx's, in terms of actually catching a scum slip in the first few pages, and Spiffeh seems to care about it enough to have voted there and have his vote remain there after speaking up now, but only the post by Drixx draws your attention. Either both "oh man, I found a scum slip" posts are suspect, or neither are, unless there's some other factor that makes you believe one to be more suspect than the other?

I did not interpret his post as extremely serious, nor did I see him doing things I see as absurd like attributing intent to whoever misquoted him (kthx?) or seeming super duper confident. I think there's very little similarity between the two cases.

Why is pushing for a reaction absurd? Different strokes for different folks, I guess?

Hey ceph. DO you think we have a neutral in the game?

I have no idea, and I don't really care right now.

I take it you don't think Ika was soft claiming then?

neither of us give much weight to the interactions of D1 as far as determining who we find to be most scummy

except he's jumping down my throat literally for breaking a long post in half?

I don't think I did this. Certainly not intentionally.

ok i read up and my policy on RR is to jsut have them on my ignore side cus i dont care to read wall posting.

Spiffeh stuff is fine and wha i would expect form a [role here]

other then that nothign much i care to reead up on right now

We do try and limit ourselves to succinct walls at least, ika.


Love,
Drixx

PS - The flu sucks.

[Reasonably Rational]

How?

how what?

I see what you did there.

[Reasonably Rational]

The interesting thing here though is that Spiffehs post is as implausible as Drixx's, in terms of actually catching a scum slip in the first few pages, and Spiffeh seems to care about it enough to have voted there and have his vote remain there after speaking up now, but only the post by Drixx draws your attention. Either both "oh man, I found a scum slip" posts are suspect, or neither are, unless there's some other factor that makes you believe one to be more suspect than the other?

I did not interpret his post as extremely serious, nor did I see him doing things I see as absurd like attributing intent to whoever misquoted him (kthx?) or seeming super duper confident. I think there's very little similarity between the two cases.

Why is pushing for a reaction absurd? Different strokes for different folks, I guess?

It seems to me you are moving the goalposts here. I found your accusation absurd; I did not say it would be absurd to use that as a reaction test, which I could not have said, as you are only just now claiming that is what you were doing. I don't know how much I believe you.

Hey ceph. DO you think we have a neutral in the game?

I have no idea, and I don't really care right now.

I take it you don't think Ika was soft claiming then?

Maybe? I wasn't paying much attention to that issue.

neither of us give much weight to the interactions of D1 as far as determining who we find to be most scummy

except he's jumping down my throat literally for breaking a long post in half?

I don't think I did this. Certainly not intentionally.

Then what did you mean when you indicated a belief that I didn't make my post all together in order to gain some sort of gravitas while also covering my ass at the same time (which now that I think about it sounds pretty oxymoronic)?

If you take a look through my played games, you will find me consistently doing reaction tests in early day one. It is my method to find a way into the game. It's a little easier in larger games with so many people (although we have quite a few who still need to show up so this one feels weird and I think the more active among us are blowing trivial things out of proportion for lack of more substantive things to talk about). The upside here is that you responded way differently than I would have expected scum to respond.

Spiffeh's response to the whole thing confuses me. Do you have any thoughts on why he would back up your assertion that he was just kidding, but then decide to keep his vote there anyway? That is genuinely confusing to me. You gave him a super easy way to jump on our wagon if he wanted to, but he is simultaneously claiming that he was just screwing around while also sticking with the vote. Feels like a pretty strong cognitive dissonance to me.

Ika did look like he was soft claiming neutral to me. It looked like he was testing the waters to see if he would be instantly PLd if he claimed or not. Ika sometimes does strange things that don't make sense though, so there's really no way to tell until he gets around to telling us what he was doing there. I personally can't read ika if my life depended upon it.

As for the final bit, I see what you mean. I just saw you spread out a lot of thoughts among multiple posts and saw an opportunity to poke you for a reaction. What was unintentional was the feeling of me climbing down your throat. I'll throttle back a little. I've mostly got good gut from our interactions so far.

[Reasonably Rational]

Why is TWiE someone who people want to policy lynch? I'm also generally opposed to the idea of policy lynches based on history. Policy lynch because someone is lurking? Sure, I'm all for it in the early game, because of numerous reasons I've explained before and don't feel like reiterating right now...but policy lynching someone because in the last 3/4 games they did *something* that x people in the game didn't like seems unfair.

Ika: I guess this wasn't clear enough from my first post. Unless you *are* third party yourself, continued speculation about third party slots and their place in the game doesn't seem to be very pro-town behavior. I just can't imagine any way this conversation is actually beneficial to town, and I feel like you explaining why it is beneficial, might actually be anti-town in and of itself. For the record though, I'm opposed to wasting lynches on third party slots that aren't trying to kill town.

Heartless: Reasons?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

A bus attempt? On D1? In the first few pages? That, eh, seems like a really dumb idea I'm sure I could imagine some scenario where it makes sense, but that seems pretty far fetched.

Also....the time stamps have no bearing on the point Drixx wanted to make? His issue was the potential display of knowledge a town slot should not have. When the posts were made isn't relevant in this case. Unless I'm missing the point of the time stamp issue?

-Cerb

Pedit: Yay someone responding to MY post and I Drixxs! Can you elaborate on what you mean by thinking I couldn't have read up to where I had and made that post? I read up to one point, started writing the post ninja style on a notepad at work, then when I went to post it more stuff had been posted. I read the new posts, and added my new thoughts, rather than doing a Pedit since the formatting was already aimed to speak to the people I had things to say to. And...what about me not knowing why drixx was more suspicious of something than I would have expected him to be doesn't sit right with you? You confuse me sir. Or maybe I'm confusing you. We should clear that up.

[Reasonably Rational]

I hate mobile posting. Just....ignore the nonsense like "I Drixx" In there.

[Reasonably Rational]

Spiffeh: I completely missed that post. The seriousness thing was because I missed that post and was looking for the actual reason you had for leaving your vote there, which you have now reatated.

Ank: That's probably because I'm absolute positive about MY opinion on things, but I don't know what Drixxs thoughts were because he simply didn't speak with me before me made those posts. From my knowledge of him, he clearly feels there's at least notable vidence of a scum slip somewhere in there, but I don't really see it. Mountains of molehills, etc.

-Cerb

Pedit: Maxous, the dissonance wasnt with spiffeh. It was with cephrir, who decided one of two similar (to me, but apparently not to him) events was suspicious, while the other one wasn't. Since he doesn't view them as similar, there is no dissonance.

[Reasonably Rational]

Ohh. Kk. I get what you're saying, sorry. Yeah that was drixxs post, but it looks like he missed (64?) Where Spiffeh explained his vote too. It's the same point I made and just corrected, but in Drixx terms..:p

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

To explain what it looked like to me in the absence of the post I missed: it appeared as though spiffeh was taking the opportunity to leave his RVS vote on a top wagon in spite of stating that the vote itself wasn't serious, and that is suspicious. His actions didn't match his words, and that's the kind of hard evidence that Drixx and I focus on. Once he pointed out that be had given a reason for leaving the vote rhere, his actions are in line with his words, and there's no longer cause for alarm.
-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

To explain what it looked like to me in the absence of the post I missed: it appeared as though spiffeh was taking the opportunity to leave his RVS vote on a top wagon in spite of stating that the vote itself wasn't serious, and that is suspicious.

You're assuming level zero scum. People simply do not behave this way.

Why aren't you including the next sentence of my post? It's kinda relevant, instead of just taking the initial thought I had about his slot out of context. And yes, you're right, it's absolutely terrible scum play, but just because something is scummy but so bad it can't be scum doesn't mean we should just ignore that play. You ask them why they did it and see what they say, then evaluate from there.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Alright, I have noted that I should go back and read the entirety of anything you quote, because you have displayed an opinion differing my own regarding what is and isn't relevant to a quote.

Ika, you knew heartless was town from....quoting a song, I assume that is? I don't disagree, I think, but you knew from the first post?

[Reasonably Rational]

Ika, you knew heartless was town from....quoting a song, I assume that is? I don't disagree, I think, but you knew from the first post?

Wait, you don't disagree with the quoting a song reason, or you don't disagree that he is town?
If for other reasons, talk to me about it - why?

I don't disagree that they're town. I like the posts where they produces content and gives reasons for why they believe x y z. It reads as meaningful contributions to the discussion. I do hate some of their other posts, notably the ones where they say things like "reasons are for ravens and scum," rather than explaining a read, but that's a playstyle thing, and from my limited experience with anti(I feel like that was anti, if it was tth then this means nothing)it's null for him to not give reasons for opinions he holds.

I dislike the quoting a song reason, but I have a feeling ika was speaking figuratively there. If he was speaking literally, I'd like to know what gave him such an easy townread on their slot.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

God i come back to read up and i get more and more amused by it

It's the small things, ya know?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

damn that is some fine gravitas you have there

You know; that is just going to keep getting more funny each time you do it. I nearly posted earlier but I thought perhaps it was the flu making me find it funny, but now the fever has gone and broken and it's even more funny this time. People had better stop posting in long series of small posts, or else you're likely to find me keeled over dead of a fit of laughter.

All signs potentially being contrary, I'm actually being serious. My face made a smile and a strange sort of sound came out of me when I read this. It was something similar to what others call "laughter", so I do believe you've nailed it.

[Reasonably Rational]

ok... well i guess i'll go shove a cactus up my ass and go to sleep now.

Treading dangerously close to a place we ought not tempt the mods here ... but let me just say that I only suggest that delightful pastime to a very

select

few people. You are far too rational to ever be asked to do that. And while playful mocking of my use of the word gravitas along with my general crabbiness when I'm sick has greatly brightened my day, especially with Wednesday, Thursday and today mostly being spent in bed outside of the short periods of time in which dayquil and theraflu conspired to allow me to be up and ingesting soup and copious amounts of gatorade, I cannot help but feel that we might be careening into territory where it's no longer all in good fun, and that's not what anybody wants, I don't think.

Love, and cookies,
Drixx

P.S. - Searching google and limiting the search to these forums while also using my nick and the word cactus with the advanced search command "AND" (please can both someone get and someone NOT get this joke) will result in an explanation. I think.

[Reasonably Rational]

Davesaz: Cerberus v666 is the other head of this hydra (and the one currently posting), and we haven't played together before, I don't believe?

Never played with Aeronaut, and though I've played with BPC a number of times on another site, the format was VERY different- 48 hour day phases - so though he never seemed lurky there, it's not really a baseline for comparisons.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@Mod I am voting for davesaz not Peregrine

Fixed.

Is the vote count correct?

[Reasonably Rational]

I've been around and following the game, but I've been sick the last couple days and just didn't feel like diving into any sort of discussion, since prior to Performers terrible and nonsensical post there was little said by anyone that seemed like it might be alignment indicative, and so it would have taken more work than I felt up to amidst the coughing to actually get anything done.. Someone did say something that piqued my interest, essentially jumping on someone else for asking a question which they didn't view as having an answer which would help sort people, while not jumping on ika for asking a similar question, which was interesting to me, but I skimmed through the last few pages and can't find the post, so I have no idea who said it, about who.

Anyways, I'm here now, engage with me? If there's anything you'd like me to comment on specifically, I will.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Oh, another thing that I feel pretty strongly about:

BPC wagon is crap. his post IS a little concerning, but it's hardly enough to wagon someone over.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Oh, another thing that I feel pretty strongly about:

BPC wagon is crap. his post IS a little concerning, but it's hardly enough to wagon someone over.

-Cerb

setting an arbitrary limit on what is "enough" to wagon someone is incredibly stupid and will only serve to make the game dysfunctional

Is this TTH or Anti? I guess it doesn't matter, neither of you have played with both Drixx and myself. I operate off facts, and probabilities. Defined scenarios in which x makes y play, and under which circumstances said play makes sense, utilizing evidence found throughout the thread to support or undermine the eventual conclusion that said party is town or scum. When the probability of someones sequence of plays becomes extremely unlikely to be made as town, *generally* because they contradicted themselves and what they did simply doesn't make sense for town to do, then I find that person worthy of wagoning. And the reverse is true as well, if their sequence of plays are extremely unlikely to be made as scum, then I find that person to be 'cleared', at least, as much so as someone can be without mod confirmation in thread of their alignment and the absence of alignment changing elements to the game.

What constitutes "extremely unlikely"? Generally, this occurs when the scenarios which one has to imagine in order to justify the actions displayed by a player are no longer reasonable. If you have to utilize multiple improbable decisions to claim that someone is the less likely of the alignment options available, then it becomes increasingly likely that you're wrong.

With all that said, two data points are insufficient for me to feel like BPC is scum. There's no reason for BPC scum to express that Drixx's wordiness is a null tell, while contradicting himself in the same post. It's more likely for town to do that, than scum, because town are less concerned with appearances than scum, and are thus more likely to simply not notice that what they said DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.

Actually, now that I think about it, that argument actually applies to Performer as well, but performer still pings for me where BPC doesn't. This is an incongruity I'll have to think about.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

BPC wagon is crap.

his post IS a little concerning

, but it's hardly enough to wagon someone over.

With all that said, two data points are insufficient for me to feel like BPC is scum. There's no reason for BPC scum to express that Drixx's wordiness is a null tell, while contradicting himself in the same post. It's more likely for town to do that, than scum, because town are less concerned with appearances than scum, and are thus more likely to simply not notice that what they said DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.

And now you see the result of me actually thinking things through. I felt his post was concerning, but not concerning enough to think he was scum. I reread his post, thought about WHY I didn't think it was bad enough to think he was scum over, and expressed my reasoning.

Also, please use your own words to express the points you're trying to make. It just makes it a pain for someone else to dissect your points when you somehow think the quotes say enough by themselves.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

To be fair though, I feel like this is an argument that we're just not going to end up agreeing on, Maxous. You think I'm scum, which is your prerogative, and you are thus going to view everything I say through the lens of "he is scum", and thus, if you accord my intelligence even a modicum of respect, you'll be able to easily say "Well yes, of course he would say that, he's scum," in response to any reasoning I may give. Maybe I'm not giving you enough credit, but people who are willing to reevaluate their stances, even in the face of evidence to the contrary, are few and far between in my experience.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

this is antihero

With all that said, two data points are insufficient for me to feel like BPC is scum. There's no reason for BPC scum to express that Drixx's wordiness is a null tell, while contradicting himself in the same post. It's more likely for town to do that, than scum, because town are less concerned with appearances than scum, and are thus more likely to simply not notice that what they said DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.

for the most part, this is wrong.

I like learning. Why is that wrong? If my fundamental assumptions are wrong, I'd rather correct them now.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

well we can start with the pretty obvious fact bpc never contradicted himself.

then, we can correct the "town are less concerned with appearances" because that's some md bullshit that's been perpetuated by ppl who don't actually play games

He contradicted himself by saying that he would vote for the slot because of it. That indicates that in spite of stating that it's a null tell, he finds it worth voting. Maybe that's not really a contradiction for him, maybe he's willing to simply vote people based off null tells, but it certainly appears to be a contradiction.

The town are less concerned with appearances thing is really based on my own play. I know I couldn't care less what players think of me as town, the vast majority of the time. Perhaps other people do care more for appearances as town than I think they do though. That does change things somewhat.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Spoiler:

I bet Ank was chatting in his scum chat outside his hydra and that's how he slipped. Wagon pls

VOTE: BotLane

I went and looked at the opening post just to be sure my memory wasn't faulty. The mod hasn't specified whether the scum do or do not have day chat. Your statement has an implicit assumption that they do. Care to explain that?

Love,
Drixx

VOTE: Reasonably Rational

That is not a town post.

my immediate thought is that it seems like some throwing under the bus. haven't really read into their other posts yet, but from skimming, I've found long in the past (like 2 years i think?) that Drixx tends to talk himself in circles no matter the alignment and it seems like that trend is continuing. I'd probs vote them but IDK where the vote count is at right now

while "drixx being wordy" is deemed "null," his overall thrust was that botlane was bussing you.

again, there is no contradiction.

Hmm. Point taken. So he expressed null on our slot, and considered voting BotLane? So this entire discussion is coming about because of the ambiguity of his wording? That's...reasonable. Hmm. I mean, it reaches the same conclusion that the wagon in him is kinda silly though, but the reasons are very different.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Spoiler: md screed

I know I couldn't care less what players think of me as town, the vast majority of the time.

oh bullshit.

if you honestly don't, you should. influence means a lot as both town and scum because it's what allows you to get shit done. if you're town and everyone's calling you scum 1) you're a mislynch and 2) no one's listening to your reads because they all think it's coming from a corrupted mindset. both of these things hinder a town win condition.

I feel like this is getting too far into theory territory to be useful, but I'll address this: I'm AWARE of how people view me, but I don't post in a fashion meant to cater to anyone, or to affect how people view me. I don't put any thought into appearing a certain way to anyone, or try to voice unpopular opinion in a certain way to engender different responses in different players. I just do what I do, and I notice the results, and if it's a negative result with someone, I might not interact with that person as much while they're upset at me(which, I guess, is kinda caring about their opinions, but I feel it's more about knowing that it's a waste of time to work with whatever party we're talking about because they don't want to work with me).

So umm. Yeah. I'm aware of opinions and influence as town, I DON'T actively work to manipulate those things though.

-Cerb

pedit: Mentioning needing a vote count before voting botlane is the bizarre thing, really. I don't know why you'd do that, as either alignment.

[Reasonably Rational]

I don't know why you'd do that, as either alignment.

because the act of wagoning as scum is something that has inherent risk and if he's going to call you scum and not back it up with a vote, he needs a reason for it.

as for why town would do that... yeah, you got me. i don't know.

Point taken. You'd think a move to subtly work on wagoning us/botlane would have been followed up though...instead he just disappeared, in spite of the fact that people *were* in fact voting us.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

can we jsut lynch a lurker and move on later i feel like active posters are town atm and everoyne lurking is bad or scum

also i request my 10 page essay form TTH

This sounds incredibly opportunistic.

Ika is being very town, overall. But, if you think that's opportunistic, that means you believe that scum are wholly among the non lurking players...otherwise, it wouldn't be opportunistic, because he'd just be offering up his buddies as his preferred lynches. So, do you believe scum are mostly within the set [RR, Cephrir, Heartless, Davesaz, Botlane, Ika]? Those have been the main drivers of the conversation today. (I may have missed someone, mobile and just going off memory)

Mod: the vote count prior to Drixx asking that question showed Teridax as the only person voting for Botlane, but Botlane had two votes. We were checking if there was a double voter in play, or if it was an error.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

So, if you have a slight town lean on him...why the speculation that he's being opportunistic? That doesn't fit. He could just as easily be town bored of the back and forth who notices there's a lot of apathy in this game and looking to cut off late mislynches by keeping scum from lurking out the game, as what you suggested....and you'd think as someone townreading him, you'd first assume he was making the town play.

Also, whole you're here....can you explain what was up with that bpc post earlier? The one where you say you don't get the bpc wagon, and then join it?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

since prior to Performers terrible and nonsensical post there was little said by anyone that seemed like it might be alignment indicative

Meaning Perfomers "terrible and nonsensical post" WAS alignment indicative.

What kind of read do you have on Performer?

My first thought was that it was scummy, but upon further reflectionary I realized there wasn't much difference between it and BPCs post, which I didn't find especially scummy. So, it's really null, maybe nullscum, need to engage more. And I need to look at my old games with bpc and see if there's some reason why I felt his post wasn't scummy, but performers similar one was, or if it's just bias because I want him to stick around in the game since we haven't played in forever.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Oh, another thing that I feel pretty strongly about:

BPC wagon is crap. his post IS a little concerning, but it's hardly enough to wagon someone over.

-Cerb

This has one of the most awkward trajectories in a single post I think I've ever seen in mafia as a whole.

-Ank

Thanks!

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Heartless town
Cephir town
Reasonably Rational Scum

Aeronaut is a third party scum

.

Oddly specific?

[Reasonably Rational]

Oddly specific?

Hey scum!
How you doing today?

I'm well, thank you for asking. Just waiting for reasons for reads. Gut isn't a reason, as much as people like to think it is, but you're welcome to flee into that particular refuge of incompetence if you'd like.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Don't complain about not having anyone to talk to if you're going to refuse to engage.

If I respond to you, I am engaging with you.
How about telling me what you think of my reads?
Even if they are gut you must have some opinion.

Oddly specific?

Hey scum!
How you doing today?

I'm well, thank you for asking. Just waiting for reasons for reads. Gut isn't a reason, as much as people like to think it is, but you're welcome to flee into that particular refuge of incompetence if you'd like.

-Cerb

Gut is a reason.
it is the easiest read to shit on though from both town and scum perspective.
how about addressing any of the reads I have instead of downright dismissing them all.
I like how you call it incompetence though, very nice touch.

Read my ISO, you saw how I approach the game, I explain it in detail. Reliance on gut IS incompetence to me.

I'm not dismissing them, I just already asked you to give a reason for them. All of them. Until you give a reason beyond gut, a reason I can actually judge, your reads are worthless. They don't help me sort you AT ALL.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Thats fine, I refuse to oblige you on that. I see how you responded though, that gave me something to think about for you.

What, exactly, did you want to discuss then, if your entrance is basically empty and doesn't give us anything to discuss?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Well, anything to discuss that you're willing to discuss, since you "refuse to oblige me" on giving reasons beyond gut for your reads.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Aeronaut is a third party scum.

This game is a closed setup. There is no evidence nor even any reason whatsoever to posit any third party whatsoever. I can think of the really obvious reason you would make this assumption. Want to tell me why you would make that assumption if you were town?

I am bb

But all you've done is call people scum and town without reason.

I have reasons, they begin with g and end with a t.

I guess you haven't talked yet since no night, how do you like your teammates?

Actual useful "gut" in mafia is your brain alerting you to something it caught that you aren't consciously aware of. Any "gut" that you cannot go back and find the reasons for is just gas.

Further, you have just expressed certainty about another thing you cannot know in a closed setup.

So twice you express certainty in a closed setup about things you can't know as town. You being on a scum team of a certain size or perhaps with certain abilities easily explains your assumption of a third party and also explains you knowing the scum can't talk except at knight.

Your slot was already pretty bad. I didn't think it could get much worse, but somehow you exceeded expectations when it comes to that.

VOTE: Firebringer

Congratulations on earning our vote.

Love,
Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

This game is a closed setup. There is no evidence nor even any reason whatsoever to posit any third party whatsoever. I can think of the really obvious reason you would make this assumption. Want to tell me why you would make that assumption if you were town?


I have reasons, they begin with g and end with a t.

I guess you haven't talked yet since no night, how do you like your teammates?

Actual useful "gut" in mafia is your brain alerting you to something it caught that you aren't consciously aware of. Any "gut" that you cannot go back and find the reasons for is just gas.

Further, you have just expressed certainty about another thing you cannot know in a closed setup.

So twice you express certainty in a closed setup about things you can't know as town. You being on a scum team of a certain size or perhaps with certain abilities easily explains your assumption of a third party and also explains you knowing the scum can't talk except at knight.

Your slot was already pretty bad. I didn't think it could get much worse, but somehow you exceeded expectations when it comes to that.

I always tend to exceed peoples low expectation for me.
Thanks for that.

Yes, you are right. I don't know anything for certain. Except I am pro like that, so I am certain.

You replaced into a slot that we are sad was replaced. Both of us in this hydra are essentially refugees from another place where mafia was played for the better part of a decade, and the player you replaced played there with us until the group there went dormant and we followed to here finally (I think we both lurked and used the wiki prior to signing up and playing here ... the long day phases were strange for us coming from 48 hour day phases). We also don't want your slot to be scum, mostly because we hadn't played with our friend in over a year and we were greatly looking forward to it.

That said ... I'm willing to sit back and watch. I can think of a very small few ways that a town player could know one or the other of the things you seem certain of. I haven't thought of any way to deduce both of those things with any level of certainty short of being on a scum team or perhaps being an encryptor + traitor, so you would be, yourself, the third party scum and you would know that they lack daychat because recruiting you is how they would gain it.

I almost deleted the prior paragraph in case I actually figured it out but I figure if I can think about it for a few minutes and get there, then so can scum so I don't think I'm doing any damage with that speculation.

I don't think your response to my post was anywhere in the same solar system as any of the potential responses I was expecting, so let me pose you a question, with some context first:

I've been on site coming up on a year. I think this is my 5th or 6th game in the Large game theme park area of the site, and I think this is my only ongoing game, although the only game I've ever replaced out of is still ongoing and I believe is large themed also. So I have a decent amount of experience, but not an overwhelming amount. I was scum in SMITE and therefore know we had daychat there, for sure. We were IC/FC (Feature Character) in Steven Universe and the scum team had a member who enabled daychat for them. In the other games already over, I believe all the scum teams had day chat.

So the question for you is this: Is my/our experience in large (and/or themed) games abnormal in some way? My experience essentially makes me default to assuming that scum can talk all the time with one another, with the only limitation to that which I have seen being when a specific player's role grants the ability and the team can lose it with that person's death. If I assume you are town, then your baseline assumption leads me to believe that I just have a very skewed sample size. Hopefully you can clear that up for us?

In fact; now that I think of it, the only place on the site where scum do not have daychat, in my experience, is the Road to Rome newbie games.

Going to leave the vote there for now. I dropped a note to Cerberus to look and leave his thoughts if I didn't cover everything.

Love, with warm milk and fresh cookies,
Drixx

You know ... I never slip either. The hydra gets played on a browser that I never use for mafia other than for hydra play. Sorry all.

~Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

That was a pretty awful claim. While you're busy being bored in the dead thread, you should re-consider what I said about gut. If you play mafia based upon "gut" that you can't back up with something substantive, you are essentially playing a game based upon your bowels as they randomly digest food and produce feces. I mean ... you can disagree all you want, but if "gut feeling" has any meaning, it can only be one of two things, rationally:

1.) You are picking up on a situation being similar enough to a prior bad situation that your brain tells various glands to start releasing chemicals into your system as part of the fight or flight response. That's useless "gut feeling" in mafia because what happened in previous games and the situations therein can have no actual direct effect or impact upon whatever the current game is. Any similarity is coincidental and responding to that sort of gut feeling is essentially responding to pure chance. You might as well just flip a coin; you'll be just as successful.

2.) The other thing that "gut feeling" can be is your brain recognizing something that you aren't fully consciously aware of. When this happens, then you have something useful. Put in a little time and you can generally find out what was giving you that "gut feeling" and then voila, you have something substantive you can use to convince people you found scum other than the absurdly useless "my bowels say so".


Also, I have a personal boner for Cephrir. First person with join date older than a year on this site that I've met who actually realizes that VCA is a pile of shit and completely worthless.

I'm kind of morbidly curious about this flip. I don't think I've seen a wagon with less resistance ever ... not even a day one wagon. That inactivity and, to use the parlance, "Dat claim tho", are certainly bad but it's like someone greased him up and sent him down the chute or something. No resistance whatsoever. I've noticed that such things are usually bad.


Prediction: The claim seems like a lie. Probably scum.
Reaction: Irritated at Ika for quick hammering, but even if he's wrong, at least we'll be out of day one. Hooray!?

@PV - Before you see the flip: You really going to push ika if performer is scum?

With Love,
Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

@PV - Before you see the flip: You really going to push ika if performer is scum?

So you think scum Ika wouldn't hammer a buddy?

Why not? Performer picked up votes like there was a cop guilty on him, and then made an absurd role claim. If I were scum on a team with performer, I would have zero qualms whatsoever hammering. I'm not ika so I would have probably given intent before doing it, though.

@Reasonably Rational, congrats on shitting on gut reads again. Now instead of arguing over theory how about we scum hunt? Or not, I don't think you care too since you are likely scum anyways.

Try re-reading what I said and trying to understand it, instead of blindly defending what is basically mysticism. There are so many studies disproving the idea of "gut" knowledge, it's absurd to even try to defend that position. There's also, you know, the fact that I actually pointed out the two different situations that "gut" comes from, and actually said that in one case the "gut" is really just the brain letting you know that you know something on a subconscious level. The human brain is amazing and picks up on things, especially things that don't make sense or display a pattern.

If you are getting a gut feeling because of experience from a prior game, then you would have to be an idiot to trust it. Whatever happened in a prior game with a different setup and different alignments and different players cannot possibly tell you anything about the current game. You can; however, bump into a situation that coincidentally "feels" similar to a prior situation. Acting on that is a really good way to screw up a lot. The only reason some people get away with it is that there is room built into games for us to get it wrong a few times.

If you are getting a gut feeling because your brain has picked up on something, then go find what your brain caught and give an actual fucking reason for people to give weight to what you're saying. Saying "vote because my gut says so" is just lazy, and foolish. If you actually have enough experience that you can pick up on things without consciously realizing what you're picking up on, then spend the fucking time to learn how to identify what you're picking up on, and then you'll actually be half as good as you think you are.

Holy fuck, you people with your "gut" are almost as bad as the VCA zealots who are too stupid to understand even the most basic principles of probability. It's irrelevant if scum vote a certain way a super high percentage of the time. That probability means absolutely nothing in an individual instance.

I seriously can't tell which group of you people are more frustrating to deal with.

[Reasonably Rational]

Why on earth is there a fast wagon building on Teridax?

And for the various {insert drug of choice here} heads who are high and think we are scum because X person who was scum reading us died during the night... you're seriously under estimating us. If I had to make a list of who I would have wanted to kill last night, accepting the necessary premises, I'm not even sure I would have added Maxous to the bottom of that list. Quiet universally town read person who for some reason thinks we're scum ... would never be our kill choice. I get that some folks are aren't yet convinced that our approach to the game has any merit, but please don't just outright insult our intelligence. We do actually have feelings. We're not just rational robots.

I know that speculation is just such; however, my guess would be that Maxous was killed by scum and Ika was killed by vig/3p. Ika was throwing up third party signals yesterday for some reason and since basically every third party role helps scum, it seems ridiculously unlikely that he was the scum kill. So the only real question is whether that was a zero vig kill or if we should expect two to die every night regularly. I'm not asking for anything, but if I were said zero vig and I had expended my shot and wasn't going to get another one, I would say something just to help folks out.

Sadly that is not our role and we have nothing useful to add just at the moment. Hopefully that will change.

But seriously ... what's up with the Teridax wagon? Is that just Mastin hate or did I miss something?

[Reasonably Rational]

I find it amusing how opposed you are to a 4 person wagon on a game-long lurker

Since when does asking for reasons equate to opposition? I don't even have a whiff of scum from that slot; probably because it hasn't done much. The problem with that as a reason is that

half the freaking game

hasn't done much. At a bare minimum, I know that Mastin when paying attention might actually be helpful and so I'm not in a huge hurry to flash lynch that slot just to have my vote somewhere.

Love,
Drixx

P.S. - Cerberus is sick right now, so you guys get my snark and vitriol for awhile.

[Reasonably Rational]

Ok vote for someone you want to lynch then?

Why are you so concerned with defending a slot but not even offering an alternative?

We vote when we have a rational reason to do so. That's literally the defining characteristic of my play, and Cerberus' play, and our play in this hydra. We use logic, question everything, do our absolute best to avoid cognitive biases and view the game as a puzzle to solve. I catch a lot of flack in various games for how infrequently I use my vote as a bludgeon (it's not a measure of first resort ... it's just NOT), and Cerb is even more reserved. Show me someone whose day one posting now looks scummy given the new info we have, and I'll be happy to evaluate. I'm already re-reading because that's where my strength is.

For example ... that page one thing is still bothering me. I am not wholly convinced that it was "just a joke". I think that if a wagon had actually formed on BotLane, it wouldn't have been called a "joke" later on.

As for defending a slot; I was going to say that I wasn't but then I realized that I actually am. Mastin may play this game in a way that is indecipherable to me, but Mastin has years and years of good results and after awhile it's just not a fluke. Scum Mastin is never lurky but plays with pure confidence and drives the game. That's weak evidence for this being town mastin, and town mastin is an asset... not a slot you lynch when you're clearing out lurkers.

Why on earth is there a fast wagon building on Teridax?

And for the various {insert drug of choice here} heads who are high and think we are scum because X person who was scum reading us died during the night... you're seriously under estimating us. If I had to make a list of who I would have wanted to kill last night, accepting the necessary premises, I'm not even sure I would have added Maxous to the bottom of that list. Quiet universally town read person who for some reason thinks we're scum ... would never be our kill choice. I get that some folks are aren't yet convinced that our approach to the game has any merit, but please don't just outright insult our intelligence. We do actually have feelings. We're not just rational robots.

I know that speculation is just such; however, my guess would be that Maxous was killed by scum and Ika was killed by vig/3p. Ika was throwing up third party signals yesterday for some reason and since basically every third party role helps scum, it seems ridiculously unlikely that he was the scum kill. So the only real question is whether that was a zero vig kill or if we should expect two to die every night regularly. I'm not asking for anything, but if I were said zero vig and I had expended my shot and wasn't going to get another one, I would say something just to help folks out.

Sadly that is not our role and we have nothing useful to add just at the moment. Hopefully that will change.

But seriously ... what's up with the Teridax wagon? Is that just Mastin hate or did I miss something?

I'm sure you would like to know whether you should be worried about getting vigged

Yeah there's nothing good in this post

If it's a one-shot vig who screwed up, then speaking up is all positive town utility. They already screwed up the shot and it would be weak evidence that we're dealing with a single team and not multiple teams or a team plus a third party killer. I was pretty clear that I only thought it was a good idea for a vig who was now just VT to speak up. That gives town info and puts scum in the position of either leaving a high probability (from town perspective) town player in the game or killing what amounts to a VT. Forcing scum into choosing from choices that are all sub-optimal is really good. So why are you against it?

We're not in the least bit worried about being vigged. In fact ... a vig shooting us would accomplish absolutely nothing but wasting a vig shot. Maybe if you reset your priors and stopped reading anything we say in the most negative way possible due to absurd day 1 confirmation bias, you might actually accomplish something and be useful instead of tunneling us for not conforming to your ego.

I have scum reads on:
Ved - because if meta primarily. (Its weak I know)
RR - because it looks like they might have something to lose
Spiffeh - because I really hated that initial "observation" and some is meta as well.

2+2 = 4. You should know what we have to "lose" if you are at all competent.


With Love and Affection,
Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

Vedith can be scum too. Man, it's like whack a mole in here.

I'm sensing a theme here. Let me see if I can encapsulate your opinion into an equation form.

{Name of anyone except Cephrir} = can be scum.

Congratulations. You have a proper town mindset.

[Reasonably Rational]

Did you actually read the game LQ? Ika spewed 3rd party soft claim early, and also quick hammered.

It's beginning to look like you started with a desired conclusion (RR = scum) and are attempting to go find things you can shove into place as "reasons". That's super scummy. If you had actually read our ISO, you would realize that there were two of us, and primarily I talked about Ika in regards to his 3rd party talk and asked Cephrir about it, and then in twilight talked about his quick hammer. The other references to ika came from my hydra partner, and are all contextually different.

You're giving off super scummy signals with your entrance into the game. Starting with a conclusion and manipulating and taking data out of context to try and support that conclusion is a gigantic neon sign that you are either just playing really badly or (more likely, in our experience) you are scum trying to push a wagon you think might go.

[Reasonably Rational]

Prolly my most controversial read at this point in time is that Dave looks to be Town right now.

Why would any read be controversial at the start of day 2? Day one is crapshoot wherein we got lucky. Day two just started, and you are tossing out reads without any reasons. Did you pick up the scum rag and start rubbing all over yourself on purpose?

[Reasonably Rational]

That whooshing sound you hear every time you read my twilight posts is the point of them going right over your head. The question still stands to PV. Alignment of the person who hammered and got hammered are known and irrelevant to my question.

And stop with the "you defending everything you said" crap. If someone interacts with us, we respond. That's how this game works. Calling someone scummy for being engaged is absurd. Calling someone scummy for believing they have valid observations and sticking to their guns is even worse. Our job isn't to placate anyone who scum reads us. Our job is to find scum and convince the rest of you lot that we're right.

Going to go do something else for awhile. Arguing about stupid things that don't matter and won't help us find scum is a waste of everyone's time.

[Reasonably Rational]

can we jsut lynch a lurker and move on later i feel like active posters are town atm and everoyne lurking is bad or scum

also i request my 10 page essay form TTH

This sounds incredibly opportunistic.

Ika is being very town, overall. But, if you think that's opportunistic, that means you believe that scum are wholly among the non lurking players...otherwise, it wouldn't be opportunistic, because he'd just be offering up his buddies as his preferred lynches. So, do you believe scum are mostly within the set [RR, Cephrir, Heartless, Davesaz, Botlane, Ika]? Those have been the main drivers of the conversation today. (I may have missed someone, mobile and just going off memory)

Mod: the vote count prior to Drixx asking that question showed Teridax as the only person voting for Botlane, but Botlane had two votes. We were checking if there was a double voter in play, or if it was an error.

-Cerb

RR read on Ika is a big reason I am Scumreading that hydra currently. He talks about Ika a lot in his ISO.

Hi LQ. Welcome to the game. I'm confused by this. Are you scumreading us because we were able to determine that a player who seems to always lurk as scum was being active and was thus likely town, or are you scumreading us because you think we'd spend a bunch of time talking about the person we wanted to kill in thread, leaving obvious clues, and then kill them?

What would you like to discuss about the double kill, which hasn't already been touched on? Two kills indicates at least one of three things, since we can't account for kills which may have been prevented.

1) Two scum factions
2) One scum faction and a third party who can kill
3) One scum faction, and a town vig.

Beyond that, do you have some new info to add that might clarify things?

Also, thanks Drixx for speaking up about my illness. I might not be wholly "here" today, but I'll try.

-Cerb

Ugh. Hydra pick up. I don't even know why I was logged into that account, I only have one game going on right now. *sigh*

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

LQ, I'm not a big fan of meta tells myself, but I'm telling you that's why there was a town read on Ika. He was actually doing stuff. That's a good sign for him. It's not ironclad or anything, especially since he's smart enough to be aware of that tell and manipulate if he ever chooses to do so, but it was a positive sign.

My point with the other post was basically...do you think we'd spend the day interacting with and talking to someone, and then kill them that night? That seems like a pretty dumb thing for me to do as scum when I have a wide open field of options, including a bunch that I haven't even interacted with.

Anyways, Drixx and I rethink *everything* pretty consistently, but that is a problem with our playstyle. If we arrive at a conclusion due to evidence, and the evidence or the circumstances surrounding the evidence don't change in any material fashion, the conclusion isn't going to change....so it looks like we're being stubborn, but it's really that we have a REASON to believe what we do, and we haven't yet found a reason to change our mind, and/or don't find the reasons presented by others to be compelling.

Firebringer: Ika is dead. He flipped VT. I will cautiously call that a townslip for the moment.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

You're smarter than that Mastin. It was one thing when kthxbye didn't wonder who Performer was the counterwagon away from, but

you

not knowing isn't like you.

[Reasonably Rational]

Hi LQ. Welcome to the game. I'm confused by this. Are you scumreading us because we were able to determine that a player who seems to always lurk as scum was being active and was thus likely town, or are you scumreading us because you think we'd spend a bunch of time talking about the person we wanted to kill in thread, leaving obvious clues, and then kill them?

this is not even a subtly false dichotomy

Unfortunately, those are the only things I feel he could possibly mean. Do you have some suggestion for how I should interpret that statement? I find LQ a bit difficult to follow, so insight would be welcome.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm certain that he would not phrase his reasons in either of those manners.

So he has reasons that don't make sense to me, which you are privy to. Noted.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@all:

As an aside, unrelated to this game, Cerb and I were wondering how to put links into our signature right justified to direct people to a couple places where they can learn about recognizing and overcoming cognitive biases, learn about the proper way to think rationally and (possibly most critically for mafia play) learn decision and game theory. We've seen other folks do it, so we know it's possible but neither of us can make it work. Thanks in advance to anyone who can help.

---

While it's nice to see the game moving again, you guys picked a terrible direction to move it in. I suppose it's better than just stagnation.

There's a 70% chance that any 4 players contain at least 1 scum

Can you like ... go and actually read up on probability and how it actually works, and how it applies to game theory and decision theory? Please? I'll even provide the links. I'm not even trying to say anything about the game here. It just seriously hurts to see posts like this. We haven't played together before and you don't know me, but you seem to have a decent reputation, so I wonder what you would be like if you got rid of awful cognitive biases.

Second, regardless of my opinion on you I'm just going to pursue something more fruitful.

VOTE: Reasonably Rational

That was a pretty awful claim.

While you're busy being bored in the dead thread, you should re-consider what I said about gut. If you play mafia based upon "gut" that you can't back up with something substantive, you are essentially playing a game based upon your bowels as they randomly digest food and produce feces. I mean ... you can disagree all you want, but if "gut feeling" has any meaning, it can only be one of two things, rationally:

1.) You are picking up on a situation being similar enough to a prior bad situation that your brain tells various glands to start releasing chemicals into your system as part of the fight or flight response. That's useless "gut feeling" in mafia because what happened in previous games and the situations therein can have no actual direct effect or impact upon whatever the current game is. Any similarity is coincidental and responding to that sort of gut feeling is essentially responding to pure chance. You might as well just flip a coin; you'll be just as successful.

2.) The other thing that "gut feeling" can be is your brain recognizing something that you aren't fully consciously aware of. When this happens, then you have something useful. Put in a little time and you can generally find out what was giving you that "gut feeling" and then voila, you have something substantive you can use to convince people you found scum other than the absurdly useless "my bowels say so".

RR says it is an awful claim post-lynch of Performer and then explains to performer how to improve his play as if performer is town.

RR saying the claim is awful, and the dissonance of that with everything following, really makes it look like he knew Performer was already scum and made an error by including his judgment of Performer's claim with his pretending to treat Performer as unflipped town.

Combined with RR's general play and Maxous's lynch, I feel much more confidant about this than Vedith or Teridax.

Yeah erm... we're not retarded. Maxous is literally the last person a scum us would lynch. There are way higher potential threats who know us and how we play and who we could have killed without drawing any attention whatsoever. There's basically no way that Mastin would ever live past night one with us as scum, for example. You need only look at a quote below to see why. And before you spout off some buzzwords like "WIFOM" or whatever, please just don't. Scum Mastin has a ridiculously stable scum meta in which she is active and trying to run the game. We're not seeing scum Mastin here.

Possibly

third party killer Mastin, but then I would expect us to be dead. That slot is almost certainly town given how many days have passed and how passively Mastin is playing.

On that note: @Mastin - You really need to make your scum game more like your town game, or preferably vice versa. I shouldn't be able to pin you as OTAF on day 2.

On a further note: I'm a professor. I spend the vast majority of my waking time teaching, grading or researching. As you rightly noted, performer was already locked when I made that post. He gave some WiFoM town reads out and otherwise didn't act at all town after he was locked, which was a pretty good indicator. Should we have just added on our vote once he was locked and it became clear he wasn't doing what a townie should do in twilight? That being beside the point ... what on earth does me arguing about the stupidity of "gut" with someone in twilight have to do with anything? It's clearly not related to this specific game and it's clearly me being snarky and telling him to think about my points while he's dead. I look forward to seeing if he has come up with something to support "gut" when the game ends.

I mean ... I get trying to see if a wagon will go, especially since we seem to be a popular counterwagon choice, but that was the best you could find to work with? Me having a discussion about how "gut feeling" is either useless because similar feeling situations from prior games cannot inform the current game or useful because it is alerting you to something you know without fully realizing it and thus anyone who claims to play by "gut" should work on discerning between the two and learning how to follow up on it to see what their brain is trying to get them to notice. I'm a teacher and part of a hydra which has as a primary objective spreading rational thinking and logical play, and you are scum reading us because I'm acting just like I always act?

That's weak ... at best.

I honestly think I got ahead of myself on mastin and started tunneling. I'm taking a step back right now.

You should probably do that with us too. We're objectively terrible at early game. If you still think we're not productive in the mid game, you should lynch us. Right now you would just cost the town our utility because you don't know us or how we operate. That's a fairly bad play, no matter whether you actually legitimately think we're scum or whether you're a scumbutt thinking you can push a wagon on us. Check out our Steven Universe game's hydra PT if you want a little insight into us. We start slow and pick up steam.

A town you probably also wants to see what happens when scum tries to kill us. It should be amusing.

(Btw, proof I'm not scum. Consider that as scum, I'm actively involved in the politics of my mafia team. Nightkills included. I'm often THE driving force behind them, in fact. The most influential player, the one with the greatest say, almost never outvoted.
I have a policy as scum to off threats, which I define as players, not roles. I flat-out ignore threats of roles when I'm scum to focus on player-killing.
Considering those factors.


I

certainly

could kill ReasonablyRational--ONE head of them would be deadly enough; TWO of them, together, would be an automatic top-choice for nightkill because Cerb and Drixx are both amazing players and they augment each other rather well.

Self meta is pinging me a bit, but since I already said that you don't look like scum you, that's probably paranoia. That said, would you kindly not get us killed before we have a chance to figure anything out and contribute? You might recall we contributed next to nothing the first couple days of SU. I'm sure you recall what came afterward too. Painting a target on us, while flattering, isn't really all that desirable.

Second, regardless of my opinion on you I'm just going to pursue something more fruitful.

VOTE: Reasonably Rational

That was a pretty awful claim.

While you're busy being bored in the dead thread, you should re-consider what I said about gut. If you play mafia based upon "gut" that you can't back up with something substantive, you are essentially playing a game based upon your bowels as they randomly digest food and produce feces. I mean ... you can disagree all you want, but if "gut feeling" has any meaning, it can only be one of two things, rationally:

1.) You are picking up on a situation being similar enough to a prior bad situation that your brain tells various glands to start releasing chemicals into your system as part of the fight or flight response. That's useless "gut feeling" in mafia because what happened in previous games and the situations therein can have no actual direct effect or impact upon whatever the current game is. Any similarity is coincidental and responding to that sort of gut feeling is essentially responding to pure chance. You might as well just flip a coin; you'll be just as successful.

2.) The other thing that "gut feeling" can be is your brain recognizing something that you aren't fully consciously aware of. When this happens, then you have something useful. Put in a little time and you can generally find out what was giving you that "gut feeling" and then voila, you have something substantive you can use to convince people you found scum other than the absurdly useless "my bowels say so".

RR says it is an awful claim post-lynch of Performer and then explains to performer how to improve his play as if performer is town.

RR saying the claim is awful, and the dissonance of that with everything following, really makes it look like he knew Performer was already scum and made an error by including his judgment of Performer's claim with his pretending to treat Performer as unflipped town.

Combined with RR's general play and Maxous's lynch, I feel much more confidant about this than Vedith or Teridax.

...Huh. Is it just me, or is this a great point?

If you are referring to my thinking on "gut", I'm glad someone finally agrees. Somehow I don't think that's what you meant though. You're a bit too smart to actually believe the BS Matt is selling though. What's the angle? Still having trouble reading us?

I've suspected them since the beginning of the game. I think it's a pretty good case, as well, but all it really had to do was prop up my existing suspicion of them to make me want to lynch them more than I want to lynch Vedith.

Did you just call me having a theory discussion in twilight with someone already locked a "pretty good case"? Seriously?

VOTE: RR

Really? I didn't think matts case on RR was that strong actually.

There's like really so little redeeming about RR's play in general

pedit: yeah exactly

We're objectively bad at early game. Less than 5 minutes looking at our Steven Universe ISO or hydra PT or the non-hydra games of either of us will clearly demonstrate this. The last time I checked, there was a distinct difference between being bad at part of the game and being scum.

Speaking of bad at the game though ... calling people known for having poor early play due to their approach to the game scum for having started out as poorly as every other game is actually pretty objectively bad. Perhaps we can help one another?

No, I meant it as a straightforward question.

For all the posts they've made this game, they've done remarkably little and

they failed to back the Day 1 scum lynch.

Throwing out a judgment like "better player" has to have some sort of basis and I'm curious about what that is.

Whenever you have time, I'd also like to hear about what your issues with mastin are.

Because we somehow should have known he was scum? Hindsight bias is awful. Using hindsight bias to try and make someone look scummy means you aren't really thinking things through ... or that you have an agenda and are scrambling for reasons to prop it up. You don't strike me as particularly stupid, so I'm going to assume you don't actually believe everyone knew yesterday that the eventual lynch was "the Day 1 scum lynch" when in nearly every large game the day one lynch ends up taking out a townie. That leaves just you starting with a conclusion and scrambling for some reason to justify it.

That's just really bad.

Granted, his entrance to the game was pretty bad, as I think Cerb pointed out, but bad entrance doesn't automatically make someone scum nor does it draw a vote from us. If we voted for everyone who made a bad post in a game, we would have to constantly move our vote around to pretty much everyone.

---

In short, would you all kindly de-ass your heads and maybe NOT help the scum team?

I mean shit ... it's not like I crumbed our role already or anyth... oh wait.


Love, even when people are being objectively bad,
Drixx


P.S. - Hrm... Vedith gets wagoned, goes silent running, and suddenly there's a counterwagon on us based upon smoke and mirrors? I know at least half of you are smarter than that.

[Reasonably Rational]

Cerb's at work atm, but he will be along when he gets home, because we actually have some thoughts that aren't related to us being Vedith's counter-wagon for absurdly bad reasons.

[Reasonably Rational]

Can you like ... go and actually read up on probability and how it actually works, and how it applies to game theory and decision theory? Please? I'll even provide the links. I'm not even trying to say anything about the game here. It just seriously hurts to see posts like this. We haven't played together before and you don't know me, but you seem to have a decent reputation, so I wonder what you would be like if you got rid of awful cognitive biases.

That is actually how probability works. I think you are misreading matt's post here.

Picking nits is probably a waste of both our times; however, there's a really obvious problem to any math about probability at the moment, and I cannot possibly be the only one who picked up on it.

In order to properly discern the probability of a given thing being the case, what information do you need?

Do we have that information?

I think my point should be sufficiently made now, yes?


Love and cookies (fresh from the oven chewy chocolate chip),
Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

Yes, it was a discussion about theory. But you also said you thought Performer's claim was "awful" -- indicating you thought he was scum, since if he was town he would not have been able to choose what to claim -- then treated him as an incoming town flip for the rest of your post.

The claim was awful, and it seems pretty clear (at least to me) that all of his post-lock posts are pretty scummy. The rest of that post wasn't game related. I was treating him as a person exiting the game. His alignment is literally not at all relevant to a discussion about whether "gut" is reliable or useful in mafia.

But let's set that aside for a moment. Your theory is that I (correctly) called out that claim for how terrible it was, and then pretended I was talking to a townie exiting the game, who I was also on a scum team with? You find that

at all

plausible?

Even if you accept the premise that we are scum ... what point would be served by coaching an already locked scum partner? Wouldn't that be something to give them pointers on

after

the game?

[Reasonably Rational]

Can you like ... go and actually read up on probability and how it actually works, and how it applies to game theory and decision theory? Please? I'll even provide the links. I'm not even trying to say anything about the game here. It just seriously hurts to see posts like this. We haven't played together before and you don't know me, but you seem to have a decent reputation, so I wonder what you would be like if you got rid of awful cognitive biases.

Wait first off before I even read anything else you've said, this is hilarious. I literally used statistical probability based on chance using an expected 5-person scum team.

But we don't know how many scum there are, and there's still a problem with your statement. That said, I would much rather we use our posts productively instead of arguing about a petty nit I picked. It was petty. I already owned it. Can we move on?

Maxous is literally the last person a scum us would lynch.

You and mastin both!

Well yeah. Mastin isn't stupid either. Why on earth kill someone who:

1.) Isn't saying much or driving the game at all
2.) Is pretty much town read by anyone who mentions them
3.) Has expressed a scum read on us in one of his few posts

It doesn't make rational sense.

[Reasonably Rational]

oh what?...

i turn my back for 2 seconds and the vedith wagon crumbles?

Clearly the scum team went and actually looked at what we did in SU, because we're being wagoned for absurdly bad reasons. On the up side, there's a really good place to look for scum candidates.

You should probably do that with us too. We're objectively terrible at early game. If you still think we're not productive in the mid game, you should lynch us. Right now you would just cost the town our utility because you don't know us or how we operate. That's a fairly bad play, no matter whether you actually legitimately think we're scum or whether you're a scumbutt thinking you can push a wagon on us. Check out our Steven Universe game's hydra PT if you want a little insight into us. We start slow and pick up steam.

A town you probably also wants to see what happens when scum tries to kill us. It should be amusing.

My feelings on you are unrelated to my feelings on Mastin. And no, a "town me" isn't interested in keeping you around with the purpose of "seeing what happens when scum tries to kill us. It should be amusing.

Feelings shouldn't enter into it. You are literally driving a wagon against us based upon hindsight bias and cognitive dissonance. That's reason enough to back off and re-evaluate.

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm following along, but kinda have to actually be productive at work cause of missed work last week due to my illness, but....I can't abide the probabilistic misrepresentations being made.

Drixxs point was that we don't know how many scum there are, so it's impossible to give correct probabilistic estimates. Anything you say is either misleading because you are making assumptions(if you don't state the assumptions that go along with your assertion, or it's perfectly accurate(assuming correct math) because you are scum and know how large your team is.

Logically, we can assert that there were likely either 4 or 5 slots which are not aligned with the town, at the start of the game.

If 4, with one anti town dead, leaving 3/17 remaining, a randomly selected group of 4 players has a 58% chance of containing at least one scum.

If 5, there is indeed a 70% chance of at least one scum existing in that random group of 4.

Anyways, I just knew the math was misleading because it was based on information we can't possibly have, and it irritated me. Carry on everyone, I'll have game relevant stuff that's not related to probability to say when I get home.

-Cerb

Pedit: well, it looks like Drixx already decided this was a non point, oh well, I spent the time making sure my math was correct so I'm posting this! :p

[Reasonably Rational]

Spoiler:

@all:

As an aside, unrelated to this game, Cerb and I were wondering how to put links into our signature right justified to direct people to a couple places where they can learn about recognizing and overcoming cognitive biases, learn about the proper way to think rationally and (possibly most critically for mafia play) learn decision and game theory. We've seen other folks do it, so we know it's possible but neither of us can make it work. Thanks in advance to anyone who can help.

---

While it's nice to see the game moving again, you guys picked a terrible direction to move it in. I suppose it's better than just stagnation.

There's a 70% chance that any 4 players contain at least 1 scum

Can you like ... go and actually read up on probability and how it actually works, and how it applies to game theory and decision theory? Please? I'll even provide the links. I'm not even trying to say anything about the game here. It just seriously hurts to see posts like this. We haven't played together before and you don't know me, but you seem to have a decent reputation, so I wonder what you would be like if you got rid of awful cognitive biases.

Second, regardless of my opinion on you I'm just going to pursue something more fruitful.

VOTE: Reasonably Rational

That was a pretty awful claim.

While you're busy being bored in the dead thread, you should re-consider what I said about gut. If you play mafia based upon "gut" that you can't back up with something substantive, you are essentially playing a game based upon your bowels as they randomly digest food and produce feces. I mean ... you can disagree all you want, but if "gut feeling" has any meaning, it can only be one of two things, rationally:

1.) You are picking up on a situation being similar enough to a prior bad situation that your brain tells various glands to start releasing chemicals into your system as part of the fight or flight response. That's useless "gut feeling" in mafia because what happened in previous games and the situations therein can have no actual direct effect or impact upon whatever the current game is. Any similarity is coincidental and responding to that sort of gut feeling is essentially responding to pure chance. You might as well just flip a coin; you'll be just as successful.

2.) The other thing that "gut feeling" can be is your brain recognizing something that you aren't fully consciously aware of. When this happens, then you have something useful. Put in a little time and you can generally find out what was giving you that "gut feeling" and then voila, you have something substantive you can use to convince people you found scum other than the absurdly useless "my bowels say so".

RR says it is an awful claim post-lynch of Performer and then explains to performer how to improve his play as if performer is town.

RR saying the claim is awful, and the dissonance of that with everything following, really makes it look like he knew Performer was already scum and made an error by including his judgment of Performer's claim with his pretending to treat Performer as unflipped town.

Combined with RR's general play and Maxous's lynch, I feel much more confidant about this than Vedith or Teridax.

Yeah erm... we're not retarded. Maxous is literally the last person a scum us would lynch. There are way higher potential threats who know us and how we play and who we could have killed without drawing any attention whatsoever. There's basically no way that Mastin would ever live past night one with us as scum, for example. You need only look at a quote below to see why. And before you spout off some buzzwords like "WIFOM" or whatever, please just don't. Scum Mastin has a ridiculously stable scum meta in which she is active and trying to run the game. We're not seeing scum Mastin here.

Possibly

third party killer Mastin, but then I would expect us to be dead. That slot is almost certainly town given how many days have passed and how passively Mastin is playing.

On that note: @Mastin - You really need to make your scum game more like your town game, or preferably vice versa. I shouldn't be able to pin you as OTAF on day 2.

On a further note: I'm a professor. I spend the vast majority of my waking time teaching, grading or researching. As you rightly noted, performer was already locked when I made that post. He gave some WiFoM town reads out and otherwise didn't act at all town after he was locked, which was a pretty good indicator. Should we have just added on our vote once he was locked and it became clear he wasn't doing what a townie should do in twilight? That being beside the point ... what on earth does me arguing about the stupidity of "gut" with someone in twilight have to do with anything? It's clearly not related to this specific game and it's clearly me being snarky and telling him to think about my points while he's dead. I look forward to seeing if he has come up with something to support "gut" when the game ends.

I mean ... I get trying to see if a wagon will go, especially since we seem to be a popular counterwagon choice, but that was the best you could find to work with? Me having a discussion about how "gut feeling" is either useless because similar feeling situations from prior games cannot inform the current game or useful because it is alerting you to something you know without fully realizing it and thus anyone who claims to play by "gut" should work on discerning between the two and learning how to follow up on it to see what their brain is trying to get them to notice. I'm a teacher and part of a hydra which has as a primary objective spreading rational thinking and logical play, and you are scum reading us because I'm acting just like I always act?

That's weak ... at best.

I honestly think I got ahead of myself on mastin and started tunneling. I'm taking a step back right now.

You should probably do that with us too. We're objectively terrible at early game. If you still think we're not productive in the mid game, you should lynch us. Right now you would just cost the town our utility because you don't know us or how we operate. That's a fairly bad play, no matter whether you actually legitimately think we're scum or whether you're a scumbutt thinking you can push a wagon on us. Check out our Steven Universe game's hydra PT if you want a little insight into us. We start slow and pick up steam.

A town you probably also wants to see what happens when scum tries to kill us. It should be amusing.

(Btw, proof I'm not scum. Consider that as scum, I'm actively involved in the politics of my mafia team. Nightkills included. I'm often THE driving force behind them, in fact. The most influential player, the one with the greatest say, almost never outvoted.
I have a policy as scum to off threats, which I define as players, not roles. I flat-out ignore threats of roles when I'm scum to focus on player-killing.
Considering those factors.


I

certainly

could kill ReasonablyRational--ONE head of them would be deadly enough; TWO of them, together, would be an automatic top-choice for nightkill because Cerb and Drixx are both amazing players and they augment each other rather well.

Self meta is pinging me a bit, but since I already said that you don't look like scum you, that's probably paranoia. That said, would you kindly not get us killed before we have a chance to figure anything out and contribute? You might recall we contributed next to nothing the first couple days of SU. I'm sure you recall what came afterward too. Painting a target on us, while flattering, isn't really all that desirable.

Second, regardless of my opinion on you I'm just going to pursue something more fruitful.

VOTE: Reasonably Rational

That was a pretty awful claim.

While you're busy being bored in the dead thread, you should re-consider what I said about gut. If you play mafia based upon "gut" that you can't back up with something substantive, you are essentially playing a game based upon your bowels as they randomly digest food and produce feces. I mean ... you can disagree all you want, but if "gut feeling" has any meaning, it can only be one of two things, rationally:

1.) You are picking up on a situation being similar enough to a prior bad situation that your brain tells various glands to start releasing chemicals into your system as part of the fight or flight response. That's useless "gut feeling" in mafia because what happened in previous games and the situations therein can have no actual direct effect or impact upon whatever the current game is. Any similarity is coincidental and responding to that sort of gut feeling is essentially responding to pure chance. You might as well just flip a coin; you'll be just as successful.

2.) The other thing that "gut feeling" can be is your brain recognizing something that you aren't fully consciously aware of. When this happens, then you have something useful. Put in a little time and you can generally find out what was giving you that "gut feeling" and then voila, you have something substantive you can use to convince people you found scum other than the absurdly useless "my bowels say so".

RR says it is an awful claim post-lynch of Performer and then explains to performer how to improve his play as if performer is town.

RR saying the claim is awful, and the dissonance of that with everything following, really makes it look like he knew Performer was already scum and made an error by including his judgment of Performer's claim with his pretending to treat Performer as unflipped town.

Combined with RR's general play and Maxous's lynch, I feel much more confidant about this than Vedith or Teridax.

...Huh. Is it just me, or is this a great point?

If you are referring to my thinking on "gut", I'm glad someone finally agrees. Somehow I don't think that's what you meant though. You're a bit too smart to actually believe the BS Matt is selling though. What's the angle? Still having trouble reading us?

I've suspected them since the beginning of the game. I think it's a pretty good case, as well, but all it really had to do was prop up my existing suspicion of them to make me want to lynch them more than I want to lynch Vedith.

Did you just call me having a theory discussion in twilight with someone already locked a "pretty good case"? Seriously?

VOTE: RR

Really? I didn't think matts case on RR was that strong actually.

There's like really so little redeeming about RR's play in general

pedit: yeah exactly

We're objectively bad at early game. Less than 5 minutes looking at our Steven Universe ISO or hydra PT or the non-hydra games of either of us will clearly demonstrate this. The last time I checked, there was a distinct difference between being bad at part of the game and being scum.

Speaking of bad at the game though ... calling people known for having poor early play due to their approach to the game scum for having started out as poorly as every other game is actually pretty objectively bad. Perhaps we can help one another?

No, I meant it as a straightforward question.

For all the posts they've made this game, they've done remarkably little and

they failed to back the Day 1 scum lynch.

Throwing out a judgment like "better player" has to have some sort of basis and I'm curious about what that is.

Whenever you have time, I'd also like to hear about what your issues with mastin are.

Because we somehow should have known he was scum? Hindsight bias is awful. Using hindsight bias to try and make someone look scummy means you aren't really thinking things through ... or that you have an agenda and are scrambling for reasons to prop it up. You don't strike me as particularly stupid, so I'm going to assume you don't actually believe everyone knew yesterday that the eventual lynch was "the Day 1 scum lynch" when in nearly every large game the day one lynch ends up taking out a townie. That leaves just you starting with a conclusion and scrambling for some reason to justify it.

That's just really bad.

Granted, his entrance to the game was pretty bad, as I think Cerb pointed out, but bad entrance doesn't automatically make someone scum nor does it draw a vote from us. If we voted for everyone who made a bad post in a game, we would have to constantly move our vote around to pretty much everyone.

---

In short, would you all kindly de-ass your heads and maybe NOT help the scum team?

I mean shit ... it's not like I crumbed our role already or anyth... oh wait.


Love, even when people are being objectively bad,
Drixx


P.S. - Hrm... Vedith gets wagoned, goes silent running, and suddenly there's a counterwagon on us based upon smoke and mirrors? I know at least half of you are smarter than that.

Thats all fine and well, but look at the activity of this slot in the beginning of the game! My God if you start out with a slow start and this is your slow start I'd hate to be Scum against you... ever!

Just throwing this out there cuz ya'know it hasn't been answered yet.

We tend to be fairly active as a general habit. We both come from a site that played mafia with 48 hour day phases. Number of posts is not what I'm referring to. We approach the game using logic and in the early game there is very little information to work with that is reliable enough to come to good conclusions. As a result, we aren't likely to be any better than random selection on day one, unless someone slips big time.

Speaking of bad at the game though ... calling people known for having poor early play due to their approach to the game scum for having started out as poorly as every other game is actually pretty objectively bad. Perhaps we can help one another?

I've never played with you before and I didn't research your meta during to or prior to the game. You're saying I'm "bad at the game" because I don't know your meta. This is just so bizarre.

Fair point. You can go look if you have some reason to believe we're sandbagging or something.

Yes, it was a discussion about theory. But you also said you thought Performer's claim was "awful" -- indicating you thought he was scum, since if he was town he would not have been able to choose what to claim -- then treated him as an incoming town flip for the rest of your post.

The claim was awful, and it seems pretty clear (at least to me) that all of his post-lock posts are pretty scummy. The rest of that post wasn't game related. I was treating him as a person exiting the game. His alignment is literally not at all relevant to a discussion about whether "gut" is reliable or useful in mafia.

But let's set that aside for a moment. Your theory is that I (correctly) called out that claim for how terrible it was, and then pretended I was talking to a townie exiting the game, who I was also on a scum team with? You find that

at all

plausible?

Even if you accept the premise that we are scum ... what point would be served by coaching an already locked scum partner? Wouldn't that be something to give them pointers on

after

the game?

To look like you thought he was going to flip town, and wanted to look all protown and nice and helpful and at ease. I would be hypothesizing that it was the "awful" that was the slip-up.

Why do you keep ignoring the fact that the post wasn't game specific Ceph? I called the claim awful because it was awful. Did

anyone

buy that claim, even for a second? I wasn't doing anything with the rest of that post other than continuing a prior argument about theory that wasn't game specific. I notice that I am confused. Non game related theory argument is just that: non game related.

AND you're saying I'm bad at the game because I'm not excusing your crappy early play on the basis that I should *somehow know* you always play crappy early on. Think about how ridiculous that is for a second.

As I said above; fair point.

Since we play attempting to use logic and rational thought to figure out the game, we need reliable data to work from. This generally means that early in the game when we don't know much, we aren't all that good. We get better as the game progresses. You can either take our word for that or not. We have only the one prior game together and our entire thoughts and discussions are available in our hydra PT from that game. It wouldn't take you more than a couple minutes to see how poorly we started out compared to how we played later in the game.

As I said a few posts back, Cerb is at work but dropped me a note on slack that he saw something of note, so when he gets home, perhaps we'll begin to be less crappy.

Well yeah. Mastin isn't stupid either. Why on earth kill someone who:
2.) Is pretty much town read by anyone who mentions them
3.) Has expressed a scum read on us in one of his few posts

It doesn't make rational sense.

What part of this is irrational

Please don't cherry pick Cephrir. It's a moot point. We're not "OJ" doing an "If I did it" pseudo confession here. I have no idea why Maxous was killed, but I do know my own mind and I know that I would not have chosen to kill him.

[Reasonably Rational]

Well yeah. Mastin isn't stupid either. Why on earth kill someone who:

1.) Isn't saying much or driving the game at all
2.) Is pretty much town read by anyone who mentions them
3.) Has expressed a scum read on us in one of his few posts

It doesn't make rational sense.

It makes complete sense to kill a universal townread. It makes complete sense to kill someone that's firm on you being scum.

Scum literally kill threats ALL THE TIME. Specifically because the sort of WIFOMy nonsense you and Mastin are spewing prevents any reasonable discussion about NK spec so that scum can avoid incrimination for those NKs. It's much more dangerous to leave dangerous people in the game than to try to brush off NK spec when WIFOM is so easy.

I love how everyone is insulting Maxous's presense or ability in the game when clearly his few words yesterday were powerful, he had a lot of potential to take a front seat in leading discussion as the game progressed, he was a low-probability protection, and

scum probably did kill him so clearly he's was somehow rationalized to be a good scum kill

You just like want us to disregard the NK or assume incompetent people made the kill.

I don't think kill data should ever be disregarded. It's interesting that you seem so sure that scum killed Maxous and not Ika. I suspect that is the case, but I see only downsides to assuming it is a certainty.

You have great points about scum teams eliminating threats, but you're ignoring what I said and why I said it. Maxous would not have been

our

kill choice. He was obviously

someone's

kill choice however. You and pisskop assert that he's a very strong player, but arguing that we would have killed him for meta reasons fails for the same reason that me assuming you would know anything about us fails. There are people in this game who have played several games with the two of us individually and also with us as a hydra who I would view as much bigger threats. Just because we personally wouldn't have chosen to kill him doesn't make him not dead, and it certainly doesn't make it okay to assume knowing why he was killed.

[Reasonably Rational]

Clearly the scum team went and actually looked at what we did in SU, because we're being wagoned for absurdly bad reasons. On the up side, there's a really good place to look for scum candidates.

...oh awesome, so the room's filling up with egos now. that's cool.

That was probably paranoia talking. I see us being an obvious counterwagon to Vedith, and the reasons people are using to justify voting us are just absurdly bad. When things don't make sense, I try to figure out how to make sense of them.

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm following along, but kinda have to actually be productive at work cause of missed work last week due to my illness, but....I can't abide the probabilistic misrepresentations being made.

Drixxs point was that we don't know how many scum there are, so it's impossible to give correct probabilistic estimates. Anything you say is either misleading because you are making assumptions(if you don't state the assumptions that go along with your assertion, or it's perfectly accurate(assuming correct math) because you are scum and know how large your team is.

Logically, we can assert that there were likely either 4 or 5 slots which are not aligned with the town, at the start of the game.

If 4, with one anti town dead, leaving 3/17 remaining, a randomly selected group of 4 players has a 58% chance of containing at least one scum.

If 5, there is indeed a 70% chance of at least one scum existing in that random group of 4.

Anyways, I just knew the math was misleading because it was based on information we can't possibly have, and it irritated me. Carry on everyone, I'll have game relevant stuff that's not related to probability to say when I get home.

-Cerb

Pedit: well, it looks like Drixx already decided this was a non point, oh well, I spent the time making sure my math was correct so I'm posting this! :p

OK, as long as we're doing this. I suspect there to be 4 mafia and a probable SK. I'd say there is a Cop and a Doc and a Tracker or Watcher with a X-Shot Vig as well as the JK that we know about. There very well could be a mafia RB and a GF and an off chance of their being a mafia role cop. I don't think there are any special mechanics and I don't think there are

too[/] many modified (don't know if this is the right word) roles but there are likely a couple. I also think there will be no more than 2 weirdo roles thrown into the mix as well.

Yay! now lets all talk about how this is wrong to do in a game.

Setup spec has some utility. I'm not sure what point you're driving at here?

[Reasonably Rational]

Cephrir is like the calculated sassy person you want to bring with you everywhere

Despite being the current target of it, I sort of agree.

[Reasonably Rational]

I don't think kill data should ever be disregarded. It's interesting that you seem so sure that scum killed Maxous and not Ika. I suspect that is the case, but I see only downsides to assuming it is a certainty.

You have great points about scum teams eliminating threats, but you're ignoring what I said and why I said it. Maxous would not have been our kill choice. He was obviously someone's kill choice however. You and pisskop assert that he's a very strong player, but arguing that we would have killed him for meta reasons fails for the same reason that me assuming you would know anything about us fails. There are people in this game who have played several games with the two of us individually and also with us as a hydra who I would view as much bigger threats. Just because we personally wouldn't have chosen to kill him doesn't make him not dead, and it certainly doesn't make it okay to assume knowing why he was killed.

I'm not sure, I would just be willing to bet on it.

So then great, I don't care about who you say your kill choice would be though. And I never said anything about meta - I've never played with Maxous before, I can simply tell from this game he is good. And if I were you-scum, I would want him out of the game. I don't care if you say that you wouldn't. He objectively called you scum consistently throughout day phase. He was a universal townread. He was cooperative with others and likable. That is what I have to work with here.

I agree with you about Maxous. I'm just saying we would be more subtle than that.

Picking up hydra slips.

I'm following along, but kinda have to actually be productive at work cause of missed work last week due to my illness, but....I can't abide the probabilistic misrepresentations being made.

Drixxs point was that we don't know how many scum there are, so it's impossible to give correct probabilistic estimates. Anything you say is either misleading because you are making assumptions(if you don't state the assumptions that go along with your assertion, or it's perfectly accurate(assuming correct math) because you are scum and know how large your team is.

Logically, we can assert that there were likely either 4 or 5 slots which are not aligned with the town, at the start of the game.

If 4, with one anti town dead, leaving 3/17 remaining, a randomly selected group of 4 players has a 58% chance of containing at least one scum.

If 5, there is indeed a 70% chance of at least one scum existing in that random group of 4.

Anyways, I just knew the math was misleading because it was based on information we can't possibly have, and it irritated me. Carry on everyone, I'll have game relevant stuff that's not related to probability to say when I get home.

-Cerb

Pedit: well, it looks like Drixx already decided this was a non point, oh well, I spent the time making sure my math was correct so I'm posting this! :p

OK, as long as we're doing this. I suspect there to be 4 mafia and a probable SK. I'd say there is a Cop and a Doc and a Tracker or Watcher with a X-Shot Vig as well as the JK that we know about. There very well could be a mafia RB and a GF and an off chance of their being a mafia role cop. I don't think there are any special mechanics and I don't think there are

too[/] many modified (don't know if this is the right word) roles but there are likely a couple. I also think there will be no more than 2 weirdo roles thrown into the mix as well.

Yay! now lets all talk about how this is wrong to do in a game.

Setup spec has some utility. I'm not sure what point you're driving at here?

My guess is that, being the rational people that you are, are biding for time to come up with something after your initial hail marry "big" post didn't do what you wanted it to.

There was nothing "hail mary" about that post. I slept in and when I checked into the game, there were a lot of pages. I just multi-quoted and replied. Why do you feel the need to force a specific characterization onto the post?

I'm following along, but kinda have to actually be productive at work cause of missed work last week due to my illness, but....I can't abide the probabilistic misrepresentations being made.

Drixxs point was that we don't know how many scum there are, so it's impossible to give correct probabilistic estimates. Anything you say is either misleading because you are making assumptions(if you don't state the assumptions that go along with your assertion, or it's perfectly accurate(assuming correct math) because you are scum and know how large your team is.

Logically, we can assert that there were likely either 4 or 5 slots which are not aligned with the town, at the start of the game.

If 4, with one anti town dead, leaving 3/17 remaining, a randomly selected group of 4 players has a 58% chance of containing at least one scum.

If 5, there is indeed a 70% chance of at least one scum existing in that random group of 4.

Anyways, I just knew the math was misleading because it was based on information we can't possibly have, and it irritated me. Carry on everyone, I'll have game relevant stuff that's not related to probability to say when I get home.

-Cerb

Pedit: well, it looks like Drixx already decided this was a non point, oh well, I spent the time making sure my math was correct so I'm posting this! :p

OK, as long as we're doing this. I suspect there to be 4 mafia and a probable SK. I'd say there is a Cop and a Doc and a Tracker or Watcher with a X-Shot Vig as well as the JK that we know about. There very well could be a mafia RB and a GF and an off chance of their being a mafia role cop. I don't think there are any special mechanics and I don't think there are

too[/] many modified (don't know if this is the right word) roles but there are likely a couple. I also think there will be no more than 2 weirdo roles thrown into the mix as well.

Yay! now lets all talk about how this is wrong to do in a game.

Setup spec has some utility. I'm not sure what point you're driving at here?

My guess is that, being the rational people that you are, are biding for time to come up with something after your initial hail marry "big" post didn't do what you wanted it to.

There was nothing "hail mary" about that post. I slept in and when I checked into the game, there were a lot of pages. I just multi-quoted and replied. Why do you feel the need to force a specific characterization onto the post?

Oh good, so you know exactly what post I am talking about then.

There was only one large post that I made? First you give yourself an excuse to vote us by claiming the post was some kind of desperation when it was really just a catch up, and then you pretend like you weren't clear about what post you were talking about. Intentional misrepresentation and manipulation are not town traits.

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

Had earlier "gut" feeling about you, but couldn't find anything concrete. Watching you intentionally mischaracterize me to set up a reason for you to vote, and then watching you misrepresent the conversation, I now have reason to view you as scummy enough to vote. Town players don't need to be manipulative and don't need to misrepresent people just to put down a vote. The fact that you felt the need for so much cover is like a gigantic blinking neon sign pointing at you.

[Reasonably Rational]

Why do you keep ignoring the fact that the post wasn't game specific Ceph? I called the claim awful because it was awful. Did anyone buy that claim, even for a second? I wasn't doing anything with the rest of that post other than continuing a prior argument about theory that wasn't game specific. I notice that I am confused. Non game related theory argument is just that: non game related.

I simply don't agree with you

Between me and you, it is I who actually knows my motives and you have yet to offer any reasoning behind your assertion that me talking about gut was specifically game related. Should I assume you admit defeat since you cannot even produce any reason for your belief?

Please don't cherry pick Cephrir. It's a moot point. We're not "OJ" doing an "If I did it" pseudo confession here. I have no idea why Maxous was killed, but I do know my own mind and I know that I would not have chosen to kill him.

You said "this is irrational because of X Y and Z"

I said "Y and Z are not irrational"

Is that really cherry picking, or did you just want a reason to nitpick my post without admitting defeat?

Why are we beating a dead horse? Humoring you anyway: I gave three connected reasons for why we logically would not have chosen Maxous to kill, if were were scum. They were connected and taken together add up to enough reason to pick some other target. I personally got you a scum win in SMITE in large part by making night kill choices that didn't help the town. You want to posit that me plus another very smart person working together would somehow do worse as scum than I did alone?

Happily, we cannot admit defeat in any case, since we didn't have anything to do with either of the night kills.

[Reasonably Rational]

LQ voted you before making post 994.

Not that that is the only reason your vote for him is terrible, but it's one.

And that matters why? First he mischaracterized my catch up post as a "hail mary" post to give himself a reason to vote me, then quoted me saying that if we were scum we would be more subtle and voted, and then after he voted he gave himself more cover. Do you think people can only give themselves cover for a vote before they make it?

[Reasonably Rational]

I isoed MM. Bus.

vote: MM

Can you be more specific? I find MonkeyMan very difficult to read (as in, I find reading his posts and understanding what he's saying/doing to be difficult).

[Reasonably Rational]

LQ voted you before making post 994.

Not that that is the only reason your vote for him is terrible, but it's one.

And that matters why? First he mischaracterized my catch up post as a "hail mary" post to give himself a reason to vote me, then quoted me saying that if we were scum we would be more subtle and voted, and then after he voted he gave himself more cover. Do you think people can only give themselves cover for a vote before they make it?

What you're calling "cover" is also what you're previously bemoaned as missing from votes on you while calling them "reasons"

I'm sorry but there is no universe where mischaracterizing people and manipulating what they say to make them look scummy is town play.

[Reasonably Rational]

Sorry everyone, I meant to actually delve into rereading and isoing and trying to figure out what's actually going on here last night, but ended up just sleeping for basically ever. I'll try to keep up and be responsive today, but I won't have time for any rereading until at least 12 hours from now.

With that said, small thoughts I have remaining from yesterday, to the best of my recollection: LQ's sheeping wagon jumping is, well, suspicious, but omg, it's just so fucking blatantly opportunistic (to use one of those buzzwords) that I'm very disinclined to believe there's actually some sort of scum agenda behind it. It feels more like town who just knows they want pressure on people, and are happy with the current prospects. So, until I hash this out with Drixx, I'll be undoing his hard work. ;p

UNVOTE:

Heartless, is there dissonance there on the subject of our slot, or did you really just forget that the Vedith wagon was partially dismantled by you moving your vote from Vedith to us?

Hmm. Nothing else I can recall that I wanted to ask a question about, but I know there was lots.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Heartless, is there dissonance there on the subject of our slot, or did you really just forget that the Vedith wagon was partially dismantled by you moving your vote from Vedith to us?

it's over a lot more than you

something before you start needling me on "hydra dissonance": i don't change tth's vote, regardless of how much i may disapprove of it. when we sync, i'll either get on board with it or we'll find a vote we both like. this is hydra'ing 101.

Why would I needle you about hydra dissonance? I think it's a stupid thing to bug someone about. I just wanted to confirm that the head making the vote wasn't the one noting that the other wagon fell apart. Since you guys don't tag your posts, and a lot of your posts are short enough that little personality comes through in your words it's hard to be certain.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Although if your piss is on fire, you should go seek medical help, that shit aint right.

Firebringer seems town.

I'll just leave this exchange here because it's really funny.

Heartless, is there dissonance there on the subject of our slot, or did you really just forget that the Vedith wagon was partially dismantled by you moving your vote from Vedith to us?

it's over a lot more than you

something before you start needling me on "hydra dissonance": i don't change tth's vote, regardless of how much i may disapprove of it. when we sync, i'll either get on board with it or we'll find a vote we both like. this is hydra'ing 101.

Cerb takes my vote off all the time. He has no respect for me really, even though I am not quick to vote and usually only do so if I've found something that's in my wheelhouse. I'm really good at spotting scum narrative. LQs manipulation and setting up cover to vote us without looking suspicious later was screaming scum narrative. He hauled his ass off of us as soon as he could as well, which reinforced the idea that what I said about his manipulation and setup of cover scared him. There's nothing in LQ's actions that warrant Cerb undoing the vote ... so:

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

We'll see how he handles THAT then, won't we?

Feeling a bit silly today, but still with love,
Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

Cerb takes my vote off all the time. He has no respect for me really

i have absolutely no problem admitting that tth is smarter than me so...
yeah, i don't mess with her votes.

Interestingly, I'm very certain Drixx is way better than I am, but I just don't like having a vote out there if it isn't accomplishing a specific goal...either creating a situation in the vote count that will be informative, or actually lynching someone when it gets close to deadline. I like talking a lot before making votes.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Universal scumread lurksack shows up and sheeps a vote on the easiest wagon while trying to spread his ridiculously scummy stink on us. So surprised.

[Reasonably Rational]

Hey MattP: please correct me if I'm wrong here. The crux of your case on us is you find our interactions with the performer slot to be suspect. You find it implausible that town us would note that performers entrance was very bad and not vote him. You also find it suspect that we called his claim terrible, and then proceeded to give him advice about playstyle that you believe we would only give to someone who we believed was town. There's also NKA leading you to believe one of Maxous/Ika is a kill we would support, and VCA indicating that we were attempting to support the counterwagon to performer. Is that correct? You're pointing out what you believe to be two points of contradiction in our actions, and some nka and vca. If there's something more to this let me know. I'll address all those points once I'm certain I understand your perspective properly. And, just to confirm, you have never played with either Drixx or myself, correct?

-Cerb

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Hey MattP: please correct me if I'm wrong here. The crux of your case on us is you find our interactions with the performer slot to be suspect. You find it implausible that town us would note that performers entrance was very bad and not vote him. You also find it suspect that we called his claim terrible, and then proceeded to give him advice about playstyle that you believe we would only give to someone who we believed was town. There's also NKA leading you to believe one of Maxous/Ika is a kill we would support, and VCA indicating that we were attempting to support the counterwagon to performer. Is that correct? You're pointing out what you believe to be two points of contradiction in our actions, and some nka and vca. If there's something more to this let me know. I'll address all those points once I'm certain I understand your perspective properly. And, just to confirm, you have never played with either Drixx or myself, correct?

-Cerb

-Cerb

I also think a lot of your pushes have been grossly melodramatic. I pointed one out and then quoted it to merit a response and I never got one. There are others that I haven't pointed out. I will gladly point those out as well - though others, I believe, already have to some degree.

But yes, those are all very true things I feel

Understood. I remember seeing something about overreacting,I'll look for it in your iso. I'll try to address all your points asap, but I like JUST got in trouble for phone posting at work. Give me a bit.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Hello, finally home.

Alright, so taking the points from the top. I don't actually expect anyone to be convinced by anything I have to say, simply because all I'm doing is correcting mistaken assumptions about playstyle, but I simply want to lay out the reality of what's happened here, versus what MattP is suggesting has happened(which, btw, is actually a reasonable sequence of events to find suspicious, if it were on someone who played in a more standard fashion.)

Spoiler: 1) You find it implausible that town us would note that performers entrance was very bad and not vote him.

This is entirely a playstyle point. I don't vote, except in an extremely limited number of circumstances, and Drixx votes more than I do, but he's still quite cautious generally, especially when he isn't just laying down a single vote on someone but rather is actively pushing a wagon(this point will be relevant with regards to the Firebringer vote). Drixx and I as our hydra basically controlled our first game together as a hydra, while only actually voting in 5/10 lynches(possibly only 4/10), in a game where we lived through the end game.

Simply put, voting someone requires far more reason for us than is generally given within the pages of D1.

Spoiler: 2) You also find it suspect that we called his claim terrible, and then proceeded to give him advice about playstyle that you believe we would only give to someone who we believed was town.

Drixx and I engage in theory talk frequently in games. It's null, ESPECIALLY on this subject of gut. We both abhore the site meta reliance on gut without logic backing it up, so when someone brings up said subject, we take the time to reassert our position and tell the other individual why we believe they are wrong.

This entire point is basically what comes from playing with people who aren't familiar with us, and thus think a discussion about theory is alignment indicative. It never is. I DO deliberately spend more time in games on theory talk and setup spec early game than most other things in order to obscure my alignment, but again, this is a playstyle thing which I do, simply because I find it better as both alignments to leave people uncertain about me in the early game, because I'm better late. If I obvtown, I get killed. Better to leave myself as a perceived easy mislynch by preying on the misconception that IIoA and theory talk are certain visible signs of scum trying to hide in plain sight.

Spoiler: 3) There's also NKA leading you to believe one of Maxous/Ika is a kill we would support

I'll address Maxous first. This is something Drixx touched on, but I'll repeat it in, well, a less abrasive fashion than he's fond of. Much like Mastin, I kill people on the basis of threats. This is, naturally, what lead people to make the assumption that I would view Maxous as a threat, but that's wrong. What defines a threat? Someone who I know from personal experience is capable of logically building a case against me which I can't tear down(because I'm historically very good at avoiding being lynched, again, as either alignment). What isn't threatening? Someone who, in spite of very vocally scum reading my slot, proved themselves incapable of pushing a notable wagon on me, and who I have no experience in seeing be threatening. Maxous fits that bill. His ineffectiveness proved him a non-threat to me, and as a non threat, it would be idiotic to feed the fires of suspicion by blatantly killing the loudest voice against me. Say what else you want about me, but I believe it's abundantly clear to anyone who has ever spoken with either myself or Drixx that we are not idiots. Now, on to Ika. This is far simpler. Ika set himself up to be mislynch bait in the future with the third party speculation. In addition, he experiences the game in an entirely different fashion from me, one which doesn't lead to him making cases against people. I don't kill people who can't make cases, because if you can't make a case, I don't think you can ever get anyone competent lynched.

Spoiler: 4) VCA indicating that we were attempting to support the counterwagon to performer

This is actually the silliest thing of them all. Drixx and I both saw Firebringers absurdly specific third party scum read(I think that's what he said), and immediately said yeah, that's fucking weird, he needs to be talked to. Drixx asked me if he could vote him because he felt his entrance was scummy, and I said yes. Now, remember what I said earlier about Drixx being cautious about his vote unless he was just starting a wagon off, rather than piling on an existing one? And about me simply *not* voting much of the time? This game is FULL of people who are familiar with at least one head of this hydra, and some are familiar with both. Putting that vote on Firebringer is AT LEAST as idiotic and out of character with our town play as killing Maxous would be. There is no world where we would willingly blatantly fuel the counterwagon to our supposed scum partner(ESPECIALLY a scum partner who was objectively scummy) by actually VOTING that person. We would absolutely attempt to get other individuals lynched, but we wouldn't hop on an already existing competing wagon that's halfway to lynch.

MattP also mentioned being suspicious of drixx's histrionics in his reactions earlier in the game. I don't really have anything to say about that, because I'm not sure what exactly he found suspect. I don't know if he simply thought it was overly emotional, or simply too long, or what. Let me know what the exact problem was(my day was admittedly busier than planned, so I didn't even have the opportunity to iso MattP and locate the particular quote he was referring to) and I'll give you my thoughts on that particular post and whatever the problem with it was.

So, those are the facts. I know none of it's demonstrable to anyone, and it's really all in how you interpret the actions and whether or not you actually believe us about how we play the game, but the above is the truth, and my refutation of the assertion that we're scum.

Now, I'm going to move on and actually play the rest of the game. The facts are all out there and I don't think there's any more value to be gained from conversation about our slot, and while we're busy talking about our slot there isn't much delving into the rest of the game being done.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

So, I'm isoing people now, starting at the top of the player list and working my way down to get some better idea of where people are. Not sure how far I'll be able to get tonight, depends how much people at the top have actually written! Unfortunately, the top of the list is Botlane, who hasn't actually said anything of significance since yesterday, although his post 443 from yesterday intrigues me. Botlane, you listed 4 people in there, and you believe there was scum within the group. One of them has since flipped scum(performer), you expressed your reasoning for your read on our slot yesterday, but I don't believe you have expressed what your thoughts are on Vedith and davesaz and why they were in that list. Are they still among your prime suspects? Why/why not? Who are your prime suspects now? I noticed you didn't get on the Vedith wagon earlier today. Just wondering what your thoughts are on the slots you've previously expressed suspicion of since you've been quiet all day.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Cephrir: So, the iso is like 75% arguing with Drixx. *sigh* Overall, I didn't notice any inconsistencies though, the vote on Vedith did kind of come out of nowhere, but there may have been context I missed since I did just read in isolation.

Cephrir, what made you vote Vedith earlier? What makes you townread the slots you're townreading?MattP, Heartless, Firebringer(beyond the performer/bpc interaction, since you went to the trouble of specifically reiterating that firebringer is town today, so there must have been some more recent reason for the solidified read)...are there any more?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'll get to that tomorrow. I need to sleep an hour ago.

-Ank

Cool. Looking forward to hearing it. Yeah, me too. I'm equally torn between wanting to continue isoing, and wanting to go play Kingdom....and neither of those things are sleeping.

Lickety, what rationale are you referring to? I don't think I've actually put forth any conclusions, I'm just getting information at this point, since I've been pretty fucking lazy(well, sick, but whatever) all game.

-Cerb

pedit: I think it's bad taste to question peoples claims about real life interfering with mafia games. They said at the start of the day that they were essentially both suddenly extremely busy, and that came when there was no pressure on them, and no reason I noticed to think that pressure would be brought to bear on them. I think there's no reason to not give them the benefit of the doubt with regards to their availability.

[Reasonably Rational]

Third times the charm, as much as I didn't intend to talk about myself....what matters, mastin, is not whether or not you can defend yourself. What matters is how much sense the wagon makes. At the start of the day, all the votes were coming at you, with no reason given, and no other votes occurring. It was weird. Drixx called out the weirdness. I don't understand where people got the idea that calling out strange behaviors and trends is bizarre. Did anyone ever even respond with reasons why they were voting you at the start of the day? No, that entire push was just swept under the rug like it never even happened..

Anyways, still at work, when I get home I'll respond to the responses people made to my questions and continue doing what I'm doing.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'll be going V/LA for several days sitewide for personal reasons, so it will just be Cerb. If anyone has any questions for me specifically, ask soon, and I'll try and respond before I will be offline.

~Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

Alright, home from work.

LQ, small, because, well, I can't follow your thoughts at all, and a small gives me a much better chance at having a shot at getting what you're talking about.

Ank, you never got around to responding to me, which is unfortunate. Let me go find Cephrirs post answering me, I don't remember what he said.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Cephrir: So, the iso is like 75% arguing with Drixx. *sigh* Overall, I didn't notice any inconsistencies though, the vote on Vedith did kind of come out of nowhere, but there may have been context I missed since I did just read in isolation.

Cephrir, what made you vote Vedith earlier? What makes you townread the slots you're townreading?MattP, Heartless, Firebringer(beyond the performer/bpc interaction, since you went to the trouble of specifically reiterating that firebringer is town today, so there must have been some more recent reason for the solidified read)...are there any more?

-Cerb

Heartless made a push on him that I agreed with.

I'm townreading Heartless and MattP for making clearly town motivated posts, and especially Heartless as their scum meta is very transparent.
LQ has been very town these last few pages, tonally as well as seeming like he's really trying to scumhunt.
Firebringer reads as a bit legitimately lost. I'm sure there were specific posts of his that made me feel good as well. There were also a ton of sketchy votes on BPC yesterday.
I have mild townreads on three or four others. Nothing to write home about and I see no particular reason to mention them.

Nope, nothing especially noteworthy there. The point about the sketchy votes on BPC, I guess, is kinda interesting. Do you mean the reason given for the votes was sketchy, or the people making the votes are sketchy, independent of said vote?

Fuck I'm sick of isoing already, and they weren't even long ones. bleh. MattP, it's weird to move your vote off a wagon you're the driving force behind. What's up yo?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

MattP, it's weird to move your vote off a wagon you're the driving force behind. What's up yo?

Well if it makes you feel better, this makes me feel better about you likely flipping scum.

That statement confuses me. But no, really, Why HerryPanther? Something came up during the rereading you mentioned?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I reread and I doubted my passing Harry so quickly as town. I thought it was weird people were universally townreading a player who isn't THAT town. I wanted pressure on him. We have over a week left of this day phase so why not direct my vote somewhere I think is more useful, it's not like my vote is going to cause his lynch this second. Why do you care so much, you clearly think I'm town and I unvoted you.

Because, as I said, it's weird to do that. The fact that you were previously voting me is irrelevant. Had this exact sequence of events happened with my name not involved as either the original vote or a future vote, I would still question why you did that. I also don't think there's a single slot in the game which I would confidently consider town. There are town leans, but nothing really strong. I haven't played with the players(like yourself) who are displaying town behavior enough to know if their scum games are strong enough to project apparent town motivations.

Why did you originally pass harry so quickly as town?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Okay, I'm pretty awake, and kinda want to interact with someone or something. SO like, eh, LQ, I don't think that post you quoted was the one we were originally talking about? Maybe I'm wrong? I'm a little out of it, I'm tired, but my body is alive and wants to keep typing. Ank. you realize you could have just, like, told me where your current reads are on those people? You didn't even do that much. Much disappoint. Cephrir, what about Mastin is different to you? Different from what? That's so vague. I guess you probably shouldn't answer until you get more data, since she'll obviously fix whatever it is that's different if you just tell her.

pisskop, I like you, because you also support the fact that gut is subconscious indication of patterns which exist and things you haven't consciously picked up yet, rather than being some end all be all omg this is how I know things power.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

OH yay. pisskop, what should we talk about then? Give me some questions or something.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Im not sold on you being scum, your reactions have some towniness to them.

Dude, that didn't give us anything to talk about. Disappointed.

-Cerb

pedit: Yeah, LQ, umm...I was just referring to a theory point he made. Which I agree with. That's it.

TTH: Yep. You should probably listen to tth Pisskop.

[Reasonably Rational]

Did he claim yet?

Drixx crumbed without telling me he was gonna do it, but no, we haven't claimed, and I won't claim because of lost utility.

Good question about who is a better lynch than me. That's kinda what I was trying to figure out with the whole isoing people thing, but I got bored with that, so I'm kinda fucked now. Too early in the game for me to have any real confidence in reads on many people(although, a note, I realized earlier I was totally lying when I said I didn't really think anyone was pretty certain to be town. That's untrue. I'm like 85% Mastin is town. I can give reasons, but this is already a digression from my point mid post.) I don't really buy the vedith wagon thing. I guess it's a valid point that he's disappeared and the wagon on us picked up, but meh, that could have happened for any number of reasons. I think Cephrir said Heartless made the first case against Vedith, but Heartless didn't even stay there, and nobody is pointing out a REASON, concrete, why Vedith is scum, they're just saying they don't like him. Need to look deeper into the field, obviously, than just that though, which I absolutely haven't done to my satisfaction yet.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Did he claim yet?

Drixx crumbed without telling me he was gonna do it, but no, we haven't claimed, and I won't claim because of lost utility.

Good question about who is a better lynch than me. That's kinda what I was trying to figure out with the whole isoing people thing, but I got bored with that, so I'm kinda fucked now. Too early in the game for me to have any real confidence in reads on many people(although, a note, I realized earlier I was totally lying when I said I didn't really think anyone was pretty certain to be town. That's untrue. I'm like 85% Mastin is town. I can give reasons, but this is already a digression from my point mid post.) I don't really buy the vedith wagon thing. I guess it's a valid point that he's disappeared and the wagon on us picked up, but meh, that could have happened for any number of reasons. I think Cephrir said Heartless made the first case against Vedith, but Heartless didn't even stay there, and nobody is pointing out a REASON, concrete, why Vedith is scum, they're just saying they don't like him. Need to look deeper into the field, obviously, than just that though, which I absolutely haven't done to my satisfaction yet.

-Cerb

I know this looks like psudo-reason for the Vedith push but he is pinging me like you wouldn't believe. Like his reactions to my short tunnel on him early Day 2 are what is driving me to want his lynch.

What is the this you're referring to? and who is the he? Sorry man, I have trouble deciphering your sentence structure sometimes.

[Reasonably Rational]

Did he claim yet?

Drixx crumbed without telling me he was gonna do it, but no, we haven't claimed, and I won't claim because of lost utility.

Good question about who is a better lynch than me. That's kinda what I was trying to figure out with the whole isoing people thing, but I got bored with that, so I'm kinda fucked now. Too early in the game for me to have any real confidence in reads on many people(although, a note, I realized earlier I was totally lying when I said I didn't really think anyone was pretty certain to be town. That's untrue. I'm like 85% Mastin is town. I can give reasons, but this is already a digression from my point mid post.) I don't really buy the vedith wagon thing. I guess it's a valid point that he's disappeared and the wagon on us picked up, but meh, that could have happened for any number of reasons. I think Cephrir said Heartless made the first case against Vedith, but Heartless didn't even stay there, and nobody is pointing out a REASON, concrete, why Vedith is scum, they're just saying they don't like him. Need to look deeper into the field, obviously, than just that though, which I absolutely haven't done to my satisfaction yet.

-Cerb

I know this looks like psudo-reason for the Vedith push but he is pinging me like you wouldn't believe. Like his reactions to my short tunnel on him early Day 2 are what is driving me to want his lynch.

What is the this you're referring to? and who is the he? Sorry man, I have trouble deciphering your sentence structure sometimes.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Okay, I was awake, my body has now caught up to my exhausted mind. I'm going to sleep. I"m sorry pisskop for promising you conversation and not being able to deliver. I will talk more tomorrow.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Before we get too far into this, fuck off Mastin with your righteous indignation at someone else defending you, LQ is asking about your standard play and I'm answering it. Just because the answer includes my belief that you're town, doesn't mean you can't come by and defend yourself however you please.

Okay. LQ, Mastin is town. She said it herself, and she wasn't wrong: scum!mastin is manipulating and planning for the future with every post. scum!mastin will lay the groundwork for later game plays, in early game posts, deliberately. It's true that mastins activity is a null tell, in my experience, but I refuse to believe that scum!mastin, as proud of her scum game as she is, would not have found the time to do more on D1 of this game. scum!mastin would be interacting with specific slots in more interesting ways than she has been, based on her experience with them, in the hopes of being able to control the game.

She...isn't doing that. None of it.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

It's true that mastins activity is a null tell, [...]found the time to do more on D1 of this game.

I'm aware of the contradiction. However, she WAS here D1 and made posts. Manipulative posts take more time and effort than just posting normally. If she had the time to be here, I wold have expected her to find the extra bit of time to make said posts actually effective.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

MattP, did you get what you wanted out of moving your vote elsewhere? Also kinda curious if you ever bothered reading the post I made that you said you were waiting for, since you never actually said anything about it. Actually, I don't think anyone said anything about it except LQ. :p

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Anyway, VOTE: ReasonablyRational

K, so if you're wrong, what are you gunna do then?

I'll take up landscape painting.

OK, so what about in the game?

Honestly I think you are just looking for excuses to get your dick hard so you can attempt to stick it in my ass.

Its clear your a jerk and were prolly a bully in middle school who never quite reached full maturity.

@mod: this is uncalled for.

[Reasonably Rational]

MattP, did you get what you wanted out of moving your vote elsewhere? Also kinda curious if you ever bothered reading the post I made that you said you were waiting for, since you never actually said anything about it. Actually, I don't think anyone said anything about it except LQ. :p

-Cerb

No, I didn't get what I wanted.

I read your post, and your following posts, and they don't resolve my issues with your slot. I want you to claim.

How would claiming resolve anything, since the basic issues you have with my slot are based on your misinterpretation of the motivation behind my slots actions?

Let's do some hypotheticals. I claim.vt, I claim doc, I claim cop, I claim some other PR, I claim something third party. How do each of those affect your read? I don't see any reason why my claim should affect your read, if you don't believe that the points you've made are valueless when applied to our play.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

How would claiming resolve anything, since the basic issues you have with my slot are based on your misinterpretation of the motivation behind my slots actions?

Let's do some hypotheticals. I claim.vt, I claim doc, I claim cop, I claim some other PR, I claim something third party. How do each of those affect your read? I don't see any reason why my claim should affect your read, if you don't believe that the points you've made are valueless when applied to our play.

-Cerb

You've placed so much importance on your crumbing maybe it will considering you've placed so much importance on it? I guess not

Where did I place importance on my crumbing? I said it happened. That's about it.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Where did I place importance on my crumbing? I said it happened. That's about it.

-Cerb

You've brought it up like 3 times

Once. For me. I guess Drixx did it once too?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

So, anyways, I got in trouble again for trying to keep up with this stupid fucking wagon based on people's inability to think critically and their laziness, so I won't be posting again until my lunch, and then at my last break so, eh, I'd appreciate someone at least giving me a couple hours to get back to them before hammering.

-Cerb

Pedit: TWIE, LQ already said he's scumreading Matt, so I believe that's the under text of what he's saying, if you're looking for what his point is.

[Reasonably Rational]

"Anyone who could possibly suspect me is stupid" is not a rational point of view

Luckily I'm still on break! Suspicion is reasonable. What's unreasonable is the fact that the entire case is based on wholly circumstantial things that DON'T ACCURATELY REFLECT OUR PLAY. It's just that there's little reason to think things further through, so nobody bothers doing it. There's nothing irrational about thinking people who don't think things through, and who are lazy, are being foolish. Anyways, anything else that's said, don't expect a response until 1230 PST.

Cephrir, you yourself pointed out that a point I made about someone else was "level 0 scum". Everything that's being attributed to us, is level 0 scum play, like the most transparent moves of all, but nobody seems to care about that.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm preparing to go out of town for personal reasons and will be gone a few days. Cerb can elaborate if that becomes necessary for some reason.

I'm the one who crumbed, and I did it on day one as is my habit when I am assigned the particular role I have. I generally crumb it in order to plant paranoia in scum that I have some other role than what I have. It becomes much less effective when I have to clarify that it's not one of the things they're scared it is. Most recently, I was forced to hard claim it in day one of "We Didn't Playtest This". I also recently hard claimed it in the twilight of a day 1 in a newbie game, but that was because I picked up on a subtle jailer crumb and while the jailer claimed despite me telling them not to under any circumstance, we still won. And the night actions were amusing.

Anyway... I'm not super conspiracy minded. It's

possible

that the crumb was caught that I put down in day one. The crumb I left was designed to imply that we were a bomb or a PGO (aka Army Veteran). I routinely crumb this way when I have the role we were assigned, because I am a much better player in the mid and late game than in the early game. Since Cerberus shares this characteristic, I dropped the crumb without talking to him about it.

The only way a wagon would be scum drive on us because of this crumb is either if:

A.) Scum caught the crumb and believed we were Bomb/PGO and wanted to take advantage of our tendency to start slow to get rid of us while it was an easier task

OR

B.) Scum caught the crumb, but scum includes someone who has seen me make this particular play before, and knew that trying to kill us at night would be futile.

It's really unfortunate that we got pushed for such terrible reasons. Our play is pretty much spot on in our meta (both individually and as a hydra), and the "case" against us is just speculation that people are viewing as "evidence". The straw man attacks by Cephrir are pretty uncalled for, since an objective look at the "case" against us, inasmuch as it can be called that, pretty clearly shows that it is literally 100% speculation that we are scum because Maxous was killed. I will repeat what I said earlier: we didn't kill maxous (or Ika), and we wouldn't have ever chosen Maxous for a kill target. I disagree with Cerb about that... it would be a Level -1 play, at best. I'm actually a little offended by Cephrir's assertion that we are Level 0 scum players ... especially since his scum record got a boost because of my scum play in SMITE. Just saying. Straw man attacks and snide comments about how poor we play are pretty uncalled for since we objectively have a very strong record on site.

Anyway (got sidetracked there)... it's unfortunate that such terrible reasoning and confirmation bias has pushed us to the "Claim!" part of things, because the moment I hard claim, our role utility goes to nil. Hopefully you lot will ISO and see the crumb and realize that I'm being honest and use today to actually find scum instead of just being lazy and confirming my honesty. We are not a bomb or PGO or vengeful or anything like that. We're bulletproof.

So now our role utility is nil, unless scum is dumb enough to for some reason waste an attempt just to test it.

We do bring pretty strong utility as the game moves on though. Just seriously take a minute to go look at Steven Universe (particularly our hydra PT) to see the effort we put into our play. Scum can't get rid of us at night (excepting if they have strongman), so at this point lynching us is just doing something for them they cannot do themselves.

Even if you still have doubts for some reason

, it is

reasonable

to leave us alive and allow us to prove our worth. We can be lynched later if there is some lingering paranoia still down the road. You can't undo it if you do the scum team the favor of lynching us today.

For the primary folks driving our wagon ... seriously please go take a look at our hydra PT from Steven Universe. You can just click on Reasonably Rational and view our threads. You will see around 65,000 words (after names and timestamps removed) of us working through the game to figure it out.

THAT

is what you are wagoning today for really bad reasons, and our role is BP too, which makes it even that much worse to kill us, since scum are unlikely to be able to.

So again ... think about it. I think you should agree that the logical move is to take a bit of time and re-evaluate. If you remain paranoid about us later, then by all means lynch us before the end game just to be sure... but please don't throw away a resource for bad reasons so early in the game when there are super clear alternatives. Just off the top of my head, MM and Vedith are both objectively better wagons today, just based upon their behavior today.

No matter how it goes, just know that I have been honest with the claim. The crumbs are there. I've given you the games you can go look at to see me making similar plays. You have the ability to quickly verify everything I've said, and town players who take a moment to look at Steven Universe should have sufficient reason to give us a reprieve and let us do our thing.

---

On a personal note: I personally will be V/LA through at least the middle part of next week and Cerb will be by himself as I will be traveling and unlikely to have the time to even skim things let alone offer him any useful thoughts. Anyone who is super curious can look at my post history and see why pretty easily.


Peas and Carrots,
Drixx

P-Edit: TWIE's arguments fail because the specific crumb would scare scum. Send a roleblocker after a possible PGO and suddenly a scum shows up dead in the morning. Send a hitman after a bomb and scum shows up dead in the morning. So yes ... the crumb was intended to make scum feel they needed to get us lynched, and here today we are a popular wagon based upon speculation and apathy/inertia. There are clearly better candidates to lynch where there are actual reasons that aren't speculation for lynching them. Hopefully this post is the first step towards breaking the apathy and inertia and moving onto other targets and hopefully nailing scum on consecutive days to start the game.

I'm on the fence about whether the wagon on us is just bad town play or if the crumb was really effective enough to get scum to move on us. In general, I don't expect competent scum to be super blatant about trying to wagon someone who has crumbed, so I would discount that unless someone who has been pushing hard today has some other actions or posts which give rational reason to believe they are scum.

[Reasonably Rational]

Ack ... messed up formatting there. Sorry.

Anyway ... it should be pretty clear now why Cerb tried to avoid claiming. Our role could have been a huge boost. I was in a game that just finished, run by Titus, where the scum team tried to kill the same guy like 5 times, and he was a commuter and the kill failed every time, only they kept thinking it failed for other reasons. They essentially lost the game trying to kill the guy. That's obviously a fringe case as I think most people would stop trying after a couple fails, but still ... it should make Cerb's earlier posts make much more sense. Sorry for the formatting SNAFU in the big post.

~Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

That claim doesn't make sense with your prior play

Crumbing that attacking us would result in a bad outcome and then playing a town game as strong as the one we played in SU was the

intent

. We didn't expect to be wagoned because of quirks in our playstyle and your speculation that a specific kill happened because we were scumread by the player. The wagon and objectively bad reasons for it weren't something predictable.

Does anyone plan for or want to spend the early part of the game defending themselves from a case based upon speculation? How do I prove your speculation is wrong? It's impossible.

[Reasonably Rational]

If I were BP and someone claimed backup BP I would seriously second-guess it being a fake claim / high probability scum lynch.

That's just bizarrely inconsistent

No ... it's not. I have

never

seen a "back up" anything on this site, in the year I've been playing here.

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm kind of morbidly curious about this flip. I don't think I've seen a wagon with less resistance ever ... not even a day one wagon. That inactivity and, to use the parlance, "Dat claim tho", are certainly bad but it's like someone greased him up and sent him down the chute or something. No resistance whatsoever. I've noticed that such things are usually bad.


Prediction: The claim seems like a lie. Probably scum.
Reaction: Irritated at Ika for quick hammering, but even if he's wrong, at least we'll be out of day one. Hooray!?

Like this makes NO sense to be your reaction to Performer's claim if you were really a town BP

Could you possibly confbias any harder? Everything somehow feeds your speculation. We're BP. Period. Performer's claim to be a "back up" is the part that struck me as absurd. He could have said back up ANYTHING and I'd have found the claim implausible, given that I've never ever seen a back up role used on this site.

[Reasonably Rational]

That was a pretty awful claim. While you're busy being bored in the dead thread, you should re-consider what I said about gut. If you play mafia based upon "gut" that you can't back up with something substantive, you are essentially playing a game based upon your bowels as they randomly digest food and produce feces. I mean ... you can disagree all you want, but if "gut feeling" has any meaning, it can only be one of two things, rationally:

1.) You are picking up on a situation being similar enough to a prior bad situation that your brain tells various glands to start releasing chemicals into your system as part of the fight or flight response. That's useless "gut feeling" in mafia because what happened in previous games and the situations therein can have no actual direct effect or impact upon whatever the current game is. Any similarity is coincidental and responding to that sort of gut feeling is essentially responding to pure chance. You might as well just flip a coin; you'll be just as successful.

2.) The other thing that "gut feeling" can be is your brain recognizing something that you aren't fully consciously aware of. When this happens, then you have something useful. Put in a little time and you can generally find out what was giving you that "gut feeling" and then voila, you have something substantive you can use to convince people you found scum other than the absurdly useless "my bowels say so".


Also, I have a personal boner for Cephrir. First person with join date older than a year on this site that I've met who actually realizes that VCA is a pile of shit and completely worthless.

I'm kind of morbidly curious about this flip. I don't think I've seen a wagon with less resistance ever ... not even a day one wagon. That inactivity and, to use the parlance, "Dat claim tho", are certainly bad but it's like someone greased him up and sent him down the chute or something. No resistance whatsoever. I've noticed that such things are usually bad.


Prediction: The claim seems like a lie. Probably scum.
Reaction: Irritated at Ika for quick hammering, but even if he's wrong, at least we'll be out of day one. Hooray!?

@PV - Before you see the flip: You really going to push ika if performer is scum?

With Love,
Drixx

I just wanted to quote this post, in its entirety. Somehow I hadn't gone back and read the entire post. MattP has been using select pieces of this post to make a narrative that we are scum. He has quoted the parts of this post that he can manipulate to fit his narrative repeatedly. He's quoted different parts of the post. He never quotes the whole thing in context. I didn't realize just how much manipulation and cherry picking of a

single post

had gone on to drive a wagon on us until I was reading our ISO looking for my crumb.

Post #700 I refer to the crumb. I'm in a hurry because I have very little time left before I need to go pick up the rental car for the drive. If you look at #700 hopefully you can spot the crumb from there. There are more overt crumbs later obviously, but someone asked about the original one.

[Reasonably Rational]

Third times the charm, as much as I didn't intend to talk about myself....what matters, mastin, is not whether or not you can defend yourself. What matters is how much sense the wagon makes. At the start of the day, all the votes were coming at you, with no reason given, and no other votes occurring. It was weird. Drixx called out the weirdness. I don't understand where people got the idea that calling out strange behaviors and trends is bizarre. Did anyone ever even respond with reasons why they were voting you at the start of the day? No, that entire push was just swept under the rug like it never even happened..

Anyways, still at work, when I get home I'll respond to the responses people made to my questions and continue doing what I'm doing.

-Cerb

Weird.

Not investigation worthy, or pressure-wagon worthy, but just weird enough to caution us all that 4 votes in 3 pages way just too insane after the quicklynch of Performer yesterday.

It was not, for either you or Drixx, a chance to trap or catch scum loading up on a town wagon. It was a wagon worthy of only a "let's not be hasty lynching a player I have no read on".
https://youtu.be/H2iK5QHr3Is?t=2m51s

False. Mastin is super easy to read if you have played with her before. Scum-Mastin is playing the game from the opening post and prides herself on being a very successful master manipulator. Day one Teridax was so underwhelming as to basically 99% conftown Mastin. I even commented in a post that it was barely into the game and I could read Mastin as OTAF and that she should do something about that. The assertion that we had no read on Mastin, when I know that I personally commented on Mastin not being at all in her scum meta, is absurd.

And yes ... I view wagons that start to form without any reason on players who are well known on site to behave a certain way as scum (and apparently are disappointed when they aren't scum and lurksack?), and have not acted at all like they do as scum, despite a stable years long pattern ... I view those wagons as suspect and strange. No reasons were given, ergo me asking what was up.

PV, are you like not synched with the game or something? You are like the 4th person to make the same point, which has been answered already each time.

[Reasonably Rational]

It was not, for either you or Drixx, a chance to trap or catch scum loading up on a town wagon. It was a wagon worthy of only a "let's not be hasty lynching a player I have no read on".

Erm. How do you know this? Nobody ever answered or gave reasons for the early wagon this day phase against Mastin. Like every single person who was part of that early wagon never responded to us. You are asserting that there was zero chance for us to find any scum there ... but how can you know that or even assume that? None of those people have been willing to explain why they did what they did. For all you know, there might be a scum or two in that group.

I quoted the full post last post, but I wanted to specifically ask about this assertion you are making. You have made very few posts, and a lot of times appear to have missed large chunks of the game, but you have an oddly very specific assertion in this post. What's up with that?

[Reasonably Rational]

Please show me a SINGLE time me selectively quoting from that wall has manipulated the tone of the post

Pretty much every time you take part of that post, you are using that part to make an argument. I believe your core argument at one point resolved around the first bit of the post where I said the claim was bad and responded to the ongoing argument about "Gut" that we had been having. Given that he was locked and on his way out of the game, I wasn't going to have much more chance to respond and make my point about it. You have quoted just that part and presented it as if it were the entire post and accused me of "coaching" and already locked teammate, which is just a bizarre thing to actually think anyone would do... how the hell would coaching help someone already locked?

On the one hand you don't seem to understand that a post can contain multiple threads of conversation (your assertion that calling the role claim bad and then having a theory discussion was dissonant in some way), but now you are saying that quoting the whole post would be inane, so you clearly seem to think that you can decide which parts of the post are separate thoughts. You are contradicting yourself.

Another time you quoted the end of the post where I noted I found the claim to be absurd (again: I have

never

seen back up roles on this site. In fact, the only time in nearly a decade of playing forum mafia that I've seen a back up role was in the first game I ever played, where I was a backup to the doctor,

but was not informed of that in my role PM

). In hundreds of games, I've never seen a back up

anything

, let alone a backup to my own role.

Can you honestly say that you found that claim at all believable? Have you ever played a game on site with back up roles? Was it a game checked for normalcy and balance? How frequently have you seen that mechanic used? You are saying that it is

unbelievable

that I am BP but would find performer's claim specious, but I think if you honestly evaluate your own experience you will also realize just how specious a claim of "back up" anything at all is. It actually strikes me as a clever attempt, in retrospect, because claiming something that is super uncommon is probably the most likely way to get people to stop and reconsider.

But remember... he was already locked by the time I checked into the thread, so I was just commenting and interacting in twilight. It's like how I asked PV whether his treatment of Ika today would vary depending on the flip, and never got an answer. If he had said he would push to lynch Ika no matter what as a PL for quick hammering, I would have viewed that as possibly being scum opportunism. If he said he would re-evaluate depending on the flip result, I would have viewed that as slightly townie. The lack of response is null. If PV was super active, it would be scummy because I could be sure he just flat out ignored it on purpose, but since he has been oddly disconnected from the game, I can't make heads or tails of it.

The point of all of this is that you aren't looking at me/us as a whole. You are zooming in and looking for things you can take out of context and use to support your speculation that Maxous died because he was scum reading us on day one and therefore we must have killed him. You are, as the saying goes, missing the forest for the trees. The primary question is whether you are doing so intentionally.

[Reasonably Rational]

Errr... you said you crumbed on page 700? That's day 2, not day 1.

I mentioned it in

post

700. I said that if they had been paying attention they would know we had something to lose. I am running out of time to find the earlier crumb. I generally crumb this by suggesting that scum will find it unpleasant to visit us or something similar. It will be part of a larger post. I simply don't recall exactly where I first crumbed it. I obviously did crumb it and remembered crumbing it because I refer to having done so in post #700 and later on I said something like "It's not like we've crumbed our role or anyth... oh wait" to someone.

It's kind of not all that relevant at this point. We're BP. The utility of that is now gone, but the potential utility of our play is still available if folks will zoom back out, take a look at the big picture, and move on. If you guys are paranoid about us later on, we can still be lynched then. You can't undo it and go "oops" if you refuse to see reason and push just to see our flip and see I was being honest.

[Reasonably Rational]

Third times the charm, as much as I didn't intend to talk about myself....what matters, mastin, is not whether or not you can defend yourself. What matters is how much sense the wagon makes. At the start of the day, all the votes were coming at you, with no reason given, and no other votes occurring. It was weird. Drixx called out the weirdness. I don't understand where people got the idea that calling out strange behaviors and trends is bizarre. Did anyone ever even respond with reasons why they were voting you at the start of the day? No, that entire push was just swept under the rug like it never even happened..

Anyways, still at work, when I get home I'll respond to the responses people made to my questions and continue doing what I'm doing.

-Cerb

Weird.

Not investigation worthy, or pressure-wagon worthy, but just weird enough to caution us all that 4 votes in 3 pages way just too insane after the quicklynch of Performer yesterday.

It was not, for either you or Drixx, a chance to trap or catch scum loading up on a town wagon. It was a wagon worthy of only a "let's not be hasty lynching a player I have no read on".
https://youtu.be/H2iK5QHr3Is?t=2m51s

False. Mastin is super easy to read if you have played with her before. Scum-Mastin is playing the game from the opening post and prides herself on being a very successful master manipulator. Day one Teridax was so underwhelming as to basically 99% conftown Mastin. I even commented in a post that it was barely into the game and I could read Mastin as OTAF and that she should do something about that. The assertion that we had no read on Mastin, when I know that I personally commented on Mastin not being at all in her scum meta, is absurd.

And yes ... I view wagons that start to form without any reason on players who are well known on site to behave a certain way as scum (and apparently are disappointed when they aren't scum and lurksack?), and have not acted at all like they do as scum, despite a stable years long pattern ... I view those wagons as suspect and strange. No reasons were given, ergo me asking what was up.

PV, are you like not synched with the game or something? You are like the 4th person to make the same point, which has been answered already each time.

My bad. Can you quote me the day1 post that indicated your townread on Mastin/Teridax? or link it. Or them.

I don't believe I said anywhere in #1772 that we explicitly posted a read on day one. My ISO isn't particularly long and control+f in most browsers will let you search for Mastin and you can see every comment we made about her.

[Reasonably Rational]

That's like someone quoting portions of a book to make a point and the author saying "you're taking those quotes out of context! You need to quote the entire text of the book each time you want to reference a singular point!"

Please no more straw man attacks. They are good for a laugh, I suppose, but it's only amusing up to a point. I'm also just about out of time to respond to serious questions.

There's a simple bottom line here:

You are the primary driver of a wagon on us that is based, primarily, upon the speculation that Maxous was killed by us because he was scum reading us. You have pushed this now so far that we had to claim a role which completely loses its utility if the scum team realizes what it is or it gets hard claimed.

Now you have a choice. You can acknowledge that giving us a chance to bring positive utility to play since we get stronger in the midgame (others have asserted this to be true, and you

can

take the time to look for yourself if you doubt) and work with us to make up for costing the town the utility of the BP. If you are still paranoid about us in a couple day phases, we will have had plenty of time to scumhunt and contribute our thoughts and you can just as easily lynch us then. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to ask you to back off and consider alternatives. It would be a shame for the rest of the time we have to be squandered just for you to see I claimed honestly. A lot more could be accomplished today. There are at the very least two people who really need to be questioned, and some inactive players who are coasting and should be pushed to contribute.

I've got to run and get the rental car. I'll have a bit of time later tonight, maybe, to check in again. Cerb should be around when he's off work. Please just like zoom out, reset your assumptions and take a look at things again. From our perspective, this entire day you have essentially been stuck in confirmation bias where every bit of the conversation has just fed your speculation about the Maxous kill being on us.



P-Edit: Super surprising that Vedith puts us at L-1 when he was the mysterious beneficiary of a wagon that just dissipated while he lurked and avoided calling attention to himself. Pretty scummy move there Vedith.

[Reasonably Rational]

It was not, for either you or Drixx, a chance to trap or catch scum loading up on a town wagon. It was a wagon worthy of only a "let's not be hasty lynching a player I have no read on".

Erm. How do you know this? Nobody ever answered or gave reasons for the early wagon this day phase against Mastin. Like every single person who was part of that early wagon never responded to us. You are asserting that there was zero chance for us to find any scum there ... but how can you know that or even assume that? None of those people have been willing to explain why they did what they did. For all you know, there might be a scum or two in that group.

I quoted the full post last post, but I wanted to specifically ask about this assertion you are making. You have made very few posts, and a lot of times appear to have missed large chunks of the game, but you have an oddly very specific assertion in this post. What's up with that?

This was the wagon when you made the post (679).

VOTE COUNT
Teridax (1): MattP, Cephrir, Vedith, pisskop

You think it's fast, but don't question anybody for their Teridax vote. You don't indicate it's town driven (indicating that 4 town players think he's scum, and thus inviting you to double check your reads on Teridax or your reads on those 4 players) nor that any of those players are scum for trying to mislynch Teridax-town.

You make a single sentence post to stop it, but don't invest in it otherwise.

It doesn't really make sense. It seems like a perfect scumhunting tool (to gather reads and find scum), and you, being Reasonable Rational and a logic driven player, do not use it. Either of you.

Even if you thought he was town, and know you are town, you could have been number 5 and been sure of scum hopping on after you.

You know, something where you try to catch or find scum.

Interesting post.

1.) We did question the wagon, but nobody answered. Then Vedith got wagoned and he seemed like a fairly likely candidate for scum on that wagon so there wasn't a lot of reason to pursue the others on the wagon just then.

2.) Then we very suddenly became the focus of the day and have had to defend ourselves ever since. In my experience, it's not a good idea to go questioning people about two wagons earlier when people are pushing you, but certainly I still think Vedith makes sense as the obvious scum on that wagon.

3.) I've never considered voting on a wagon with the idea of enticing scum to join the wagon. How would I figure out which people were town sheeping me and which were scum? That sounds like a great idea when you write it like that and assert that it's a scum hunting tool, but I'm not sure how that would work in practice.


And finally, your assertion that we didn't try to figure anything out from that wagon is specious. We questioned it, Vedith was wagoned briefly and then we were the counterwagon to him. I've pointed this out already.

[Reasonably Rational]

Please show me a SINGLE time me selectively quoting from that wall has manipulated the tone of the post

Pretty much every time you take part of that post, you are using that part to make an argument. I believe your core argument at one point resolved around the first bit of the post where I said the claim was bad and responded to the ongoing argument about "Gut" that we had been having. Given that he was locked and on his way out of the game, I wasn't going to have much more chance to respond and make my point about it. You have quoted just that part and presented it as if it were the entire post and accused me of "coaching" and already locked teammate, which is just a bizarre thing to actually think anyone would do... how the hell would coaching help someone already locked?

On the one hand you don't seem to understand that a post can contain multiple threads of conversation (your assertion that calling the role claim bad and then having a theory discussion was dissonant in some way), but now you are saying that quoting the whole post would be inane, so you clearly seem to think that you can decide which parts of the post are separate thoughts. You are contradicting yourself.

Another time you quoted the end of the post where I noted I found the claim to be absurd (again: I have

never

seen back up roles on this site. In fact, the only time in nearly a decade of playing forum mafia that I've seen a back up role was in the first game I ever played, where I was a backup to the doctor,

but was not informed of that in my role PM

). In hundreds of games, I've never seen a back up

anything

, let alone a backup to my own role.

Can you honestly say that you found that claim at all believable? Have you ever played a game on site with back up roles? Was it a game checked for normalcy and balance? How frequently have you seen that mechanic used? You are saying that it is

unbelievable

that I am BP but would find performer's claim specious, but I think if you honestly evaluate your own experience you will also realize just how specious a claim of "back up" anything at all is. It actually strikes me as a clever attempt, in retrospect, because claiming something that is super uncommon is probably the most likely way to get people to stop and reconsider.

But remember... he was already locked by the time I checked into the thread, so I was just commenting and interacting in twilight. It's like how I asked PV whether his treatment of Ika today would vary depending on the flip, and never got an answer. If he had said he would push to lynch Ika no matter what as a PL for quick hammering, I would have viewed that as possibly being scum opportunism. If he said he would re-evaluate depending on the flip result, I would have viewed that as slightly townie. The lack of response is null. If PV was super active, it would be scummy because I could be sure he just flat out ignored it on purpose, but since he has been oddly disconnected from the game, I can't make heads or tails of it.

The point of all of this is that you aren't looking at me/us as a whole. You are zooming in and looking for things you can take out of context and use to support your speculation that Maxous died because he was scum reading us on day one and therefore we must have killed him. You are, as the saying goes, missing the forest for the trees. The primary question is whether you are doing so intentionally.

Not going to verbatim respond to this, but I feel you have enough experience (between the 2 of you) to know what a backup role is. You may have played hundreds of games between you and never had it, but I find it hard to believe you've never seen it.

But even leaving that aside, why on God's green earth does a Mafia Goon claim Back-up BP instead of BP? BP is neither town nor scum, since it can effectively be either.
To me, that claim makes more sense if Performer knows that a BP exists. And it being day1, he only knows that one exists if there is a scum BP.

There is no reason to push ika, since he is dead.

If I missed something important you want an answer to, let me know.

I already said that in my first ever forum mafia game I was a backup, so I am aware the role exists. Lots of roles exist which are almost never used. Backup roles are so uncommon as to be essentially not even worth considering in most cases.

Are you intentionally evading what I said the point of questioning you about Ika was? I even said what answer would have made me town or scum read you, had you actually answered yesterday in twilight. Of course there's no reason to push Ika because he's dead. Why are you implying that I suggested anything of the sort?

[Reasonably Rational]

You should have crumbed doc, cop, or Beloved princess. Something that would draw the NK to you and make it be wasted.

Why would you crumb be "scum don't wanna come visit me"? when you really want them to?

Thank you for the advice. Cerberus and I both get stronger once we have actual facts to work with, so my goal was to be there in the midgame and threaten the scum team the way we did in Steven Universe. They would have tried to kill us then, crumb or no crumb.

We're both rubbish at early game and anyone who has played with us will readily agree. We both get much better when the game moves on and there are known facts to work with, and Mastin has already vouched, but you need only take a minute to look at our SU performance to see that it isn't ego talking. We objectively get better as the game moves on.

Maybe for a player who thinks the only way they can help the town is to lure the scum into wasting a shot, the best move is your suggestion. Hell, maybe that would be good for us too. Would need to think about it. I personally think being around to solve the game is the best thing we can bring to the town.

Why would you crumb be "scum don't wanna come visit me"? when you really want them to?

This is true.

His advice certainly has some value to it.

What's wrong with our approach? Stay alive and draw the scum into feeling they need to lynch us which gets them to potentially expose themselves. Live long enough to get to where we start to excel at solving games and become a large enough threat to draw scum fire. We can have it all if we play it right. The best possible outcome is that scum get themselves caught trying to get us mislynched (Hi Vedith!), and then we do our thing and start pressuring enough scum to draw a NK attempt which fails, and then we end up getting a lot of utility out of our role and play.

Which approach is better? Depends on the player, I think. We were fresh off a dominating town performance in SU so I felt like we could try to get a lot out of it.

[Reasonably Rational]

Why would the BP respond to a backup-BP claim by saying

That was a pretty awful claim.

That's ridiculous

I could have sworn I remembered Performer claimed one-shot. Am I misremembering that?

No you're not. I personally viewed the backup part as absurdly unlikely. If I had given the claim any serious thought or merit or believed it, I might have assumed the back up got reduced utility. Personally I think that is just more evidence that Performer was making a "hail mary" claim hoping that such a strange claim might be believed. It's co-incidental that we're BP, and nothing more. If you think about it for awhile, it seems like a BP would have achieved significant utility stopping one kill, so there's no reason a backup would be different from the main. I probably should have realized that, but just the rarity of backup roles at all made me dismiss it. It's not like my believing it or not believing it mattered in any case. I checked into the game after he was already locked, so even if I had believed him and been like "OMG guys, I'm BP ... that totally makes sense!" ... it would have been too late.

[Reasonably Rational]

What's wrong with our approach? Stay alive and draw the scum into feeling they need to lynch us which gets them to potentially expose themselves. Live long enough to get to where we start to excel at solving games and become a large enough threat to draw scum fire. We can have it all if we play it right. The best possible outcome is that scum get themselves caught trying to get us mislynched (Hi Vedith!), and then we do our thing and start pressuring enough scum to draw a NK attempt which fails, and then we end up getting a lot of utility out of our role and play.

What's weird about your strategy is that you would supposedly survive a targeted NK because you're BP, so why would you say something that dissuades scum from targeting you.

"The best possible outcome" would be to draw the NK to have scum waste it, which you do the opposite of with that crumb. You said you crumbed what you did because of the role you are, but with your role I would expect you to crumb very differently than how you did

Planting the idea that we're a dangerous role to try and night kill makes the scum have to pursue killing us via mislynch. Coming off of our performance in SU, it seemed likely for a scum team to view us as a threat. So there's utility in drawing scum out who try to wagon or take advantage of town scum reading us (Oh, hi Vedith again). Then if we can replicate our play in SU and be a strong enough threat to scum with our play, they will try and kill us even if it might result in a 1-for-1 trade, and we could get role utility (unless they send a strongman type kill). BP generally cannot be relied upon to provide utility, although PV did give some advice that might be useful at some future point when I/we pull BP again.

But the main point, from my perspective, is that I was pretty confident coming off of the SU game and want to do just as well this game. I think we may have already drawn scum out onto our wagon (Hi Vedith!), but I regret the necessity to hard claim our role, simply because why on earth would scum shoot us now? I suppose it could still have a tiny bit of utility if they have a limited strongman ability and we live past today and we play well enough to force them to use it to get rid of us.

If RR's claiming full bulletproof, it's understandable that a one-shot modifier claim would very out of place.

RR said the "back up" portion was what made them skeptical, not the "one shot"

Also all BPs pretty much are 1-shot

You would think that. A Titus modded game just ended where the scum team tried to kill the same target something like 5 nights in a row and he was just commuting every night. None of the scum team player are like really dumb people or anything ... it was just a game with a lot of possible mechanics and I think they just never realized until too late that it was only a single mechanic stopping the kill.

That would be the dream scenario though. Totally take it to the scum every day and have them fail to kill us over and over at night. I would derive a ridiculous amount of enjoyment from seeing that in the post game.

[Reasonably Rational]

We're not in the least bit worried about being vigged. In fact ... a vig shooting us would accomplish absolutely nothing but wasting a vig shot.

This is the first thing that I can find that even remotely resembles a crumb and its for BP and not PGO. So if you could point out your actual crumb if i missed it when you get a chance that'd be great.

Yeah I already said that in post #700 I said something that made it obvious.

I can link you to a game where I crumbed BP in a way that made KlinconCelt assume I was a bomb, if you find meta useful at all. I have been really super consistent with how I play as BP. I crumbed it in We Didn't Playtest This, as well. There's a newbie game that just finished where I crumbed it in twilight of day one. Like ... the most reliable thing on the site is if I have BP, I'm going to crumb it in some way to try and leverage it into usefulness.

[Reasonably Rational]

Just got off work and caught up.

If we believe Vediths claim it's stupid in the extreme to lynch him, he's something scum can't take into end game with them, so it's better to make scum kill him than do the hard work for them, AND risk him missing his shot when the ratio of town:scum is greater. For the sake of the hypothetical though, if a Vedith lynch happens, it's optimal to either have MonkeyMan on the wagon, and have him shoot him(that way you get both the #1 and #2 lynch choices out of the way right now(and hope you didn't just fuck the game hard by "lynching" two town in one day)), or ensure our slot is on the wagon so he can shoot us and prove our claim without risking the swinginess of a missed vig shot. Proving our claim doesn't prove our alignment, but I think those are the optimal plays to make with regards to a vedith vengeful shot.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Matt, I can see that 1928 is an attempt to hold my hand and gently show me the problem, but I still don't get it

I'll try to explain.

VOTE: RR

Here LQ votes us, in spite of seeming to be unsupportive of the lynch in the last several pages.

I have no new info at my disposal. I think RR is a good lynch even though it proves nothing.

Here LQ says he thinks we're a good lynch, even though it's pointless.

I don't like the case on RR. Its looks completely made up. I doubt 25% of it is true.

Here LQ returns to his previously held position, before he voted us, that the case on us is a bad one.

Yeah LQ didn't you just vote RR

That was a long time ago.

Here LQ states that he voted us a long time ago, referring to, I assume, his original vote on us in 992

VOTE: RR

Yeah, this was a long time ago...

Thanks for proving my point, Scum.

Proving your point how?
You said it was a long time ago... It was like an hour ago?

I checked the timestamp, It was an hour ago.

I checked the timestamp, It was an hour ago.

So how was that ages ago?

OK, I know you think I'm Scum.

The rest of this is pretty self explanatory.

I'm actually inclined to believe that LQ forgot he was no longer voting us, and meant to unvote, and clicked the wrong tags. But that's just me giving him the benefit of the doubt, because it doesn't make sense for someone who wasn't supportive of our lynch to suddenly vote us at the exact moment people start unvoting us.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

RR, based on the wording of your role PM, would you be immune to Vedith's Vengeful kill (or suggest that daykills could possibly exist)?

I could see Vengeful as a scum fakeclaim which, combined with Vedith's insistence on shooting someone we don't want him to shoot, is supposed to serve as deterrence. It's a pretty BAD claim, but I could see that as the intent.

I asked for clarification from the mod on my roles limitations the moment I received it. Based on the pm itself, I can't answer your questions, but I asked SC the same questions. My BP will function against a day kill and against a vengeful shot, assuming the roles making those slots don't have other modifiers.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I see nobody is paying attention to my posts. Whatever. MattP gets 2 votes today then (mine being the second). Since nobody cares what I have to say, then I see no reason to say anything.

VOTE: LQ

I'm paying attention to your post, but the only way to test my claim that we know of is if Vedith is telling the truth, in which case we shouldn't lynch him anyways. Drixx is certain he said it would be interesting to see what would happen if someone tried to shoot him prior to 700, but neither of us can find it on our iso, though we both know we remember seeing it. Without that crumb prior to performers claim we return to the realm of untestable things. As drixx said before though just lynch us before/at lylo, we're a safety lynch, and let us find some fucking scum for you before we have to die.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

RR, based on the wording of your role PM, would you be immune to Vedith's Vengeful kill (or suggest that daykills could possibly exist)?

I could see Vengeful as a scum fakeclaim which, combined with Vedith's insistence on shooting someone we don't want him to shoot, is supposed to serve as deterrence. It's a pretty BAD claim, but I could see that as the intent.

I asked for clarification from the mod on my roles limitations the moment I received it. Based on the pm itself, I can't answer your questions, but I asked SC the same questions. My BP will function against a day kill and against a vengeful shot, assuming the roles making those slots don't have other modifiers.

-Cerb

The moment you got your role PM, you asked if it would protect you from a vengeful shot?

No, I asked about limitations, including daykills and multiple shots directed at us in one night, aND the effect if we have another protective on us in addition to our bp. I asked the specific vengeful question after Vedith's claim, though the previous answers gave me every reason to believe we'd be protected from a vengeful shot.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

As drixx said before though just lynch us before/at lylo, we're a safety lynch, and let us find some fucking scum for you before we have to die.

Strange thing for town to say, lynch us at lylo.

He was referencing something I said earlier to MattP. If there is lingering paranoia about us, we should be lynched before it would cost town the game to mislynch us. That should be BEFORE the endgame, obviously. The main point of the post is that we should be viewed as a safety/paranoia lynch. I am the one who first proposed that point to MattP when I claimed. There's nothing to lose by letting us do our thing and lynching us a couple day phases down the road if there's still paranoia or we haven't obvtowned. There's everything to lose by lynching us just to see that my claim post is honest, and losing our (objectively?) strong ability to evaluate the game and find scum as more becomes firmly known.

RR, based on the wording of your role PM, would you be immune to Vedith's Vengeful kill (or suggest that daykills could possibly exist)?

I could see Vengeful as a scum fakeclaim which, combined with Vedith's insistence on shooting someone we don't want him to shoot, is supposed to serve as deterrence. It's a pretty BAD claim, but I could see that as the intent.

I asked for clarification from the mod on my roles limitations the moment I received it. Based on the pm itself, I can't answer your questions, but I asked SC the same questions. My BP will function against a day kill and against a vengeful shot, assuming the roles making those slots don't have other modifiers.

-Cerb

The moment you got your role PM, you asked if it would protect you from a vengeful shot?

Please don't put words into our mouth, PV. I'm fairly certain there is no universe where Cerb explicitly or implicitly said he asked, the moment we got our role PM, about whether Vengeful (specifically) would be blocked. It's absurd to posit that. Furthermore, it would be stupid to ask a mod if protection blocked specific roles because that would require knowing the setup and the answer wouldn't really be useful. If I had asked any questions, I would have asked if there were any roles which we would not be protected by, not counting ones that bypass protection like strongman. That's a simple question that a "yes" answer to results in being able to say that we would be immune from basically anything that gets claimed in game, apart from something like strongman.

I'm pretty sure Cerb sent a PM like what I've suggested, and not the sort of strawman scenario you have implied. Is there

anyone

on site who would actually send a PM listing specific roles? Of course not ... all of us would ask about the limitations in a way that isn't absurd and in a way that would actually net a useful response.

You are too smart to actually believe the shit you're pushing PV, so now I'm starting to wonder why you've been there constantly for days now quoting posts by us and manipulating them into strawmen for you to attack. I don't see town motive there. I see you trying to get a target killed there.

I love PV this game

VOTE: ReasonablyRational

You love that he is making absurd statements that don't make sense in order to keep trying to push our wagon?

Seriously ... take look at PV's ISO and look at how many times he has taken something and imposed the worst possible interpretation on it in order to keep pushing us. There's no objective reason to intentionally choose the worst possible way to interpret what someone says, nor is there any town or objective reason to turn what people say into strawman attacks.

Or do you actually believe Cerberus is claiming to have specifically messaged the moderator asking if we're protected from a role we couldn't have known existed?


~Drixx

P.S. - Unlikely to be able to check in again until late tonight at the earliest. Please apply some rational thought to things folks. PV's ISO needs checking. My memory says that he has mostly lurked and has a bunch of posts that display an ignorance of much of the game state, and then suddenly he started quoting us and pushing the most negative interpretation or even suggesting absurd things. It doesn't look or feel town to me. Look at it for yourselves.

P.P.S. - I wouldn't give Pisskop town cred for playing paranoid about being town read. When I'm scum, I go out of my way to distance from people to talk about me being town. Some town players are good enough to find scum just by seeing who is eager to accept being buddied, and other town players read someone who appears paranoid about someone reading them town as town for appearing paranoid. That's all WIFOM and should be read as null, imo.

P-edit - Oh look ... Cerb isn't actually an idiot and asked the kinds of questions that result in information you can rely upon to make decisions. That's pretty much how any rational person without an agenda should have read his prior post. Even more interested in why PV is going the straw man route. Don't have time to follow up and wall of quote him and point it out. Go look for yourselves and judge for yourselves. I'm clearly biased since he's doing it to try and get my lynched, so better you all look for yourselves.

[Reasonably Rational]

Umm, that's what I do whenever I receive a role. I ask for more information . In this case, I wanted to know about interactions with protectives and day kils, whether or not I would be informed if I was shot at, and what would happen if multiple shots were directed at us in a single night. I didn't ask about any specific roles, I posited scenarios and asked if x would happen in said scenario. I did not ask about any scenario involving a vengeful until after Vedith made his claim, so I would know what the objectively optimal play was in the event a Vedith lynch occurred.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm 100% content with a RR lynch at this point. Choo choo.

Let's end this day

Remember what I said earlier complaining about people being lazy. This is it. And pisskops post too I suppose. I get that it's easier to just lynch and see what happens, instead of thinking critically and rationally before doing so, but easier!=better

Also, I'm at a convention, and this is not a priority. I'll be checking in as I can, but I'd rather pay attention to the panels for today.

-Cerb

Pedit: That's fine. You're allowed to be wrong.

[Reasonably Rational]

...I asked x questions when I got my PM. I said what questions they were. I then asked the mod for con formation about interaction with a vengeful role specifically. The fact that my protection worked again both day and night kills meant it should work against vengeful kills, but I HATE when people make assumptions about how their role functions and are wrong..I can point you to at least one example of a game(FFVII) where a sensor assumed, for some reason, that her results would exclude the vote of a self hammering scum, and thus she didn't use it on the optimal wagon of the game...because she didn't ask for more information.

Nothing CHANGED in my narrative. I asked relatively vague questions when I got my role, and I asked a specific one when I heard about a specific role.

Waiting for a panel about writing stories in video games! Fallour: NV sttory writers are here!

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I was playing the opposite game because it was looking like anything I did, people were doing the opposite of.

This is why you voted RR?

No, its why I voted Vedith. RR need's to be lynched asap.

What changed between this moment, and earlier when you believed the case was all made up? Do you believe the case now, or do you feel we need to be lynched ASAP for some new reason? Share?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I was playing the opposite game because it was looking like anything I did, people were doing the opposite of.

This is why you voted RR?

No, its why I voted Vedith. RR need's to be lynched asap.

What changed between this moment, and earlier when you believed the case was all made up? Do you believe the case now, or do you feel we need to be lynched ASAP for some new reason? Share?

-Cerb

I believe the case against you. You're claim is all shoots and ladders.

Those are different things. You believe the original case MattP made, AND you disbelieve our claim, or what?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Like, is the problem seriously that you, MattP, don't believe that I would ask the mod for clarification how my role function when received, and then ask a specific question when new information becomes available?

Just so I know that I'm arguing with nonsense, so I can stop wasting my limited time refuting the incorrect conclusions others lack of reading comprehension and/or confbiasing are leading them to.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I was playing the opposite game because it was looking like anything I did, people were doing the opposite of.

This is why you voted RR?

No, its why I voted Vedith. RR need's to be lynched asap.

What changed between this moment, and earlier when you believed the case was all made up? Do you believe the case now, or do you feel we need to be lynched ASAP for some new reason? Share?

-Cerb

I believe the case against you. You're claim is all shoots and ladders.

Those are different things. You believe the original case MattP made, AND you disbelieve our claim, or what?

-Cerb

Here, I'll point a post out that should clear things up:

Fine, whatever. If the mod wants to modkill me its whatevs. Matt is clearly being a jerk and I don't like it.

1645 is not a good post.

Matts response to it was probably nicer than mine would have been.

Matt has not done a damn thing except go after RR this whole day over something that is not at all something that deserves a whole gameday devoted to it. His excuse for this is he only picks one lead at a time. That's pretty convenient that he has pretty much nothing to say on anything else this whole game. It's not even a rock solid case, it can't be proven or disproven and its largely based on circumstantial evidence.

ok.

and?

I'm saying he's putting all his eggs in one basket and that's a terrible approach to the game. I have given a town read on someone before just because they did the same thing. But here's the thing, I think he's doing it on purpose. I think he may have found RR's crumb and is doing everything he can to get RR lynched because of it. This all assumes that RR is telling the truth about laying down a crumb, sure. So basically, if RR can prove he laid a believable crumb we have a new lynch candidate. If RR declines to provide the crumb then I'll be on board with lynching RR. It is beyond basic play to point out a crumb if you did it. Leaving a crumb is for exactly this kind of situation. Its possible that RR in desperation is saying he left a crumb that he didn't, granted. But if he did leave a crumb... ehhhh IDK, its looking pretty bad for Matt.

I was clear here that if the claim looked bogus, I would not at all be opposed to an RR lynch.

New panel, will address this in 45.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I agree. I crumbed (Cerb disagrees with me about it but I always have crumbed as BP. Posts in this gave have given me things to think about and I'll probably have questions on playing BP more optimally after the game). No CC.

@PV - Both Cerb and I argue when we see bad reasoning. If someone is directing accusations at us, we respond to them as we view ignoring people's concerns as scummy (ergo why we're fairly sure there's scum on the early fast mastin wagon from today ... everyone ignored us asking for their reasoning). When I claimed, I pointed out that there is no downside to giving us a couple days where we are not playing defense the whole day to do our thing. If folks are paranoid or we haven't obvtowned by then, we can be lynched then. Given our history, I feel like it's reasonable to ask for that space, especially since we crumbed, claimed and haven't been counterclaimed or anything.

You don't seem to think or play like either Cerb or I, so it's fallacious to compare what you think when you get a certain role with what Cerb had to say. After the game you'll get our hydra pt and you'll see that he did indeed ask right away about our role for clarity. One of the things that bothers us both is when people assume they know exactly how the mod intends their role to function. I've watched games hinge on someone misunderstanding how their role worked. I've also seen someone be clever and ask questions about their role and then work out a way to magnify the effect of their role and make it way better than it would otherwise be (Most notably Mastin in SMITE who was basically a goo spreader who could alignment check anyone with goo. She figured out how to multiply the goo spreading AND set it up so that she could check someone's alignment without removing their goo so that they would keep spreading the goo. That made her role ridiculously OP and it's the primary reason I killed her when I did as she was on the verge of the point where the goo would go from a few people to basically everyone).

Don't have much more time to finish that thought, but I hope what I'm driving at is clear? It shouldn't be odd that Cerb asked and clarified our role. It should be odd and bad when people do NOT ensure they fully understand their role and look for how to maximize it.

I won't get to post again until super late tonight East Coast time. It will be more like early tomorrow morning. I'm not big on emotion mixed with mafia, because generally in my observation that just ends with people upset or worse, so generally anything people read as AtE from me isn't actually me intentionally doing AtE. This next thing is intentional AtE: Please take the time to reassess your assumptions and reconsider. If you guys pile on and just end the day all you will find out is that I honestly claimed. Even if we end up the lynch because {reasons}, there's so much more that could be done with today than just ending it to find out I was honest. I see no town motivation in ending the day early, but I'm pretty sure scum will be quite happy to have a day phase taken up exclusively talking about one person who happens to be BP, and then having that person lynched. The

last

thing scum want is town putting their minds to work and exploring the player list and asking questions of folks who have been keeping out of the way and doing their best not to draw attention and just let out lynch happen.

Even if you reassess and you feel like the odds are we're scum for {whatever reasons}, it's

still

better to actually make use of the day to get more people talking and committing their thoughts and reads and positions. Even if we were scum, just ending the day without getting other things that need exploring actually explored some and getting people to commit content to the game is not optimal town play. It's not even close. Take into account the fact that I really was honest with my claim and just ending the day is way more useful to the scum team than for town.

Hopefully not the last two cents I get to offer,
Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

The response I said I'd give earlier, here now that I'm back home.

Fine, whatever. If the mod wants to modkill me its whatevs. Matt is clearly being a jerk and I don't like it.

1645 is not a good post.

Matts response to it was probably nicer than mine would have been.

Matt has not done a damn thing except go after RR this whole day over something that is not at all something that deserves a whole gameday devoted to it. His excuse for this is he only picks one lead at a time. That's pretty convenient that he has pretty much nothing to say on anything else this whole game. It's not even a rock solid case, it can't be proven or disproven and its largely based on circumstantial evidence.

ok.

and?

I'm saying he's putting all his eggs in one basket and that's a terrible approach to the game. I have given a town read on someone before just because they did the same thing. But here's the thing, I think he's doing it on purpose. I think he may have found RR's crumb and is doing everything he can to get RR lynched because of it. This all assumes that RR is telling the truth about laying down a crumb, sure. So basically, if RR can prove he laid a believable crumb we have a new lynch candidate. If RR declines to provide the crumb then I'll be on board with lynching RR. It is beyond basic play to point out a crumb if you did it. Leaving a crumb is for exactly this kind of situation. Its possible that RR in desperation is saying he left a crumb that he didn't, granted. But if he did leave a crumb... ehhhh IDK, its looking pretty bad for Matt.

You didn't say here that if you felt the claim was suspect you would be supportive of our wagon. You said here that if we had not crumbed(which, btw, just a thing, Drixx apparently didn't crumb D1 as bomb etc, he made the full bp crumb in 700, and then made a less informative crumb in 946. Those were both on day 2.), then you should be suspicious of us. We did, in fact crumb. MattP first voted us today and laid out his case in 854. Those are facts. We did crumb, and MattP did make an overt move against our slot after the crumb. Does that mean what you insinuated it means? Who fucking knows, by itself it doesn't tell us anything. BUT it does mean what you're doing now does not match up with what you said you would do earlier, and you haven't given a satisfying reason for *why* that is the case.

Like, is the problem seriously that you, MattP, don't believe that I would ask the mod for clarification how my role function when received, and then ask a specific question when new information becomes available?

Just so I know that I'm arguing with nonsense, so I can stop wasting my limited time refuting the incorrect conclusions others lack of reading comprehension and/or confbiasing are leading them to.

-Cerb

OK, maybe this is a stupid question, but how do you not know how BP works?

I know how I expect BP to work. I don't know how the mod expects BP to work. Assumptions are bad.

This is what

should

have happened with the claim/crumb:

"You're Scum"

"I crumbed"

"where?"

"here"

"OK, you are not CC so you can live"

Does anyone else not see this?

See? I don't understand how you're supporting my lynch, vocally at least, but you post things like this, which at least *seem* to indicate that you don't think the way play has gone since our claim makes sense.

I support the RR wagon.

Just quoted this here to support the above points about it not making sense. I am confused LQ. Please help me stop being confused. Seriously.

Okay, anyways, fuck the entirety of what's been going on here. What the hell is with all the people just floating along not interacting while the entire day is spent with us defending ourselves. Seriously, here's a fucking link:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=62375

Read that. Read 10% of it. Yes, just 10%. We ARE fucking capable of destroying this fucking game AND willing to put the time in to make it happen.

Cephrir, MattP - you're both too smart to just let today be ONLY about us. Hell, this goes out to everyone:if you're town, and you spent the day arguing with us, just set that aside, and work with us to spend the rest of the day actually accomplishing things - instead of letting people just use us as a smokescreen. Let's not make the ONLY thing town gets out of today be "Oh, they were honest. Well, shit, that sucks, we should have probably forced more interactions with more slots." There are a lot of people who are just...kinda...here. There are too many of them for them to all be scum, but there is an extreme amount of either scum hiding or town apathy happening here. We need to find out which. If you want to lynch us at the end of the day for "reasons", at least then today will have actually been useful.

I'm going to go through the playerlist alphabetically now like I started doing earlier before I got sick of it.

Botlane: Seriously, what are you guys doing? Are you still both busy? Absolutely no thoughts on anything? Avoiding the thread because, ya know, there's lots of noise to hide in?

Davesaz: Any thoughts on any slots other than ourselves, Botlane, TWiE, or MM? I think those are the reads you've given out so far today.

Firebringer: You said earlier today to merge the votes to form one big wagon, and then proceeded to vote on someone who didn't have any votes on them(or maybe just had 1? I would need to double check VC's, I do know it was on Botlane, not one of the leadering wagons). I get that that may have been your strongest scumread at the time, but what were you trying to accomplish with that vote?

Heartless: I don't fucking know. Talk to me, pick a subject, pick a player, let's talk about it. You don't give reasons for your reads, mostly. You just kinda quote posts and say ewww, or respond immediately from reading your iso itself I see where you're at, but I don't see *why* you're there.

HerryPanther: You have no content, 18 posts. There is nothing I can talk to you about. See what I said to Botlane.

Kthxbye: I love you because even though you don't have much content, you give me actual things to read. You said this "I think there has to be at least 1 scum here: HerryPanther, pisskop, Reasonably Rational
I think there has to be at least 1 scum here: TWIE, davesaz, Teridax, LQ"

Can you explain what lead to the separation of those two lists? Why isn't it just I think there's 2 scum is this larger group, instead of the exclusiveness. I assume there's a reason. Share please.

LQ: See above.

Mastin: This is weird. Established meta is that she runs the game, and she's not doing that here...but, well, now she's pulling out the "oh, I'm always behind, stop posting so much card..." And that's a thing she started to pull out in Inorganic. We need to reevaluate. So, give us some more reason to think you're town Mastin, I want you to just start contributing again. You're a massive fucking asset if your head is in the game, so get your head in the game.

MonkeyMan576: You're, well, terrible. Like, if performers play yesterday was obvscum, I don't think there exists words to describe how terribly scummy you are. Have you done ANYTHING this game? You've snarked to respond to some people, and you've lurked to the point of oblivion.

You know. I've just been skimming ISO's, but I think I'm gonna take a second and delve a bit deeper into his. He has 42 posts.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

So...I expected more. 42 posts right? Seriously, there is nothing else in his iso of note except this. He has done *nothing* of value. He interacts with LQ a bit back and forth, in a way that doesn't seem to accomplish anything, and then he says the following:

Spoiler: Monkeyman thinks MattP is scum!

@MattP - So you feel you only have to be forthright when you are being wagoned?

For the sake of information, which the town needs to win...

Vote: MattP

What's scummy about wanting as much info as possible? MattP clearly has information he is not divulging.

And I don't care about divulging you in all my reads just so you can get a better read of me. I'm clearly not going to be wagoned today so I have no reason to go down a rabbit hole with you when I want to be focusing on RR.

This.

And I don't care about divulging you in all my reads just so you can get a better read of me. I'm clearly not going to be wagoned today so I have no reason to go down a rabbit hole with you when I want to be focusing on RR.

This.

Players can give reasons or not for their reads. Unless you have a strong read on Matt, then his reads (and lack of reasons, iyo) should rank right near the bottom of "things MonkeyMan cares about".

If you think MattP (who strongly leans town to me) needs to be sorted out BEFORE all the other players and so his reads MUST BE EXPLAINED on day2, then you'd really have to explain why you feel that way.

I know MattP to be a strong player, so I am suspicious when he says something like he doesn't want to give his reads, or that "I'm not going to be wagoned today." Arrogance does not help the town, so at this point I have a scum read on him.

When MattP flips scum, just note that I said it first.

Planning your bussing already, eh?

Spoiler: No, wait, actually, he thinks MattP AND us are scum. Oh, and that a buncha other people are town.

Scum
MattP and Reasonably Rational

Neutral
Cephirir
Heartless
Vedith
BotLane
HerryPanther
kthxbyte
Terridax
TheWayItEnds

Town
Monkeyman576
davesaz
Firebringer
LicketyQickety
PeregrineV
pisskop
Spiffeh

Spoiler: Ope, RR wagon is picking some steam back up, better get on there

I don't agree with a lot of that but it's a start.

Vote: Reasonably Rational

Well, RR is obvscum so I think we are doing just fine.

Does this make ANY sense to anyone at any point? HE LISTS US AS SCUM ALONGSIDE MATTP. How can you, with a straight face, even CONSIDER MattP to be scum, but vote the case he's been pushing strongest throughout the day? Both the architect of the wagon, and the target of it are scum? It's absurd, it's insane, it's scum or it's stupidity, and after talking to Drixx about it, we're willing to bet on scum.

VOTE: MonkeyMan576

Spoiler: Oh, and I found this gem too! This should make everyone chuckle a little.

I would rather have someone participate and try to help their team win like their win condition says they should do.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

It's late, I'm exhausted, extremely long day today. I'll carry on tomorrow when I wake up, assuming we're still alive then. Good night all.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Good morning, back to what I was doing earlier. I realized I skipped MattP in the playerlist, so he'll be first!

MattP: omg 259 posts. I'm gonna have to actually take notes.
425 Spiffeh vote. Where are you at on this now? Obviously this was D1, but, curious. Reading back over his D1, he was obviously suspicious of and pressuring us prior to the crumb. That point that LQ was hinting at is pretty much null, voting us and making a case on us is very consistent with his play up to that point.
729 you say you're second guessing the vedith push for a reason you shouldn't expand on at that time. Has that reason changed? Is it something you can/should share now?
824, content with a teri wagon, again, where is the read at now, what in that set of posts supported your read? TO answer a question you asked forever ago, our 706 came from them tossing out of reads with irrelevant fluff attached to them, not from the fact that someones opinion on whether or not a read is controversial is/isn't scummy.
829 pisskop is town, got it.
857 explains the read, also got it.
Stuff about our slot mixed in there which has been discussed to death.
1015 doesn't like LQ.
1146 heartless/ceph town read.
1147, Herry/PV town lean expressed. Why the Herry/PV town leans at that point?
He still doesn't like LQ...until 1183, decides LQ has a low chance of being scum, why?
1188 Kthx town, townlean on MM, but not confident. A buncha back and forth with LQ where they establish they don't like eachother, then in 1312/1314 we get reads lists. I'm probably gonna compare this to the reads as expressed prior to this point in a separate post later today.
1446 doubting panther...1518 panther vote...
1693, a new rearrangement of the reads list(okay, yeah, I'll have to look at this entire progression).
1701 likes TWiE, more stuff about our slot which continues to be the main conversation driver.
I like 1847 a lot, good point to simply make sure people are aware of before they go down the path of "let's push everyone one by one and accidentally force a mass claim!"1915 doesn't like lq and votes him...
1990 pisskop and vedith are town because of today
2034, likes PV, 2097, votes MM.

Okay. There are questions scattered throughout that, answers would be cool, but I'm fairly comfortable with a townread here after actually going through your iso. Reactive and changing reads throughout the game plus actually pushing people? Yeah, basically town. Paranoia says there's a chance he's scum trying to, and successfully, running the game, since, ya know, effort is not indicative of alignment, but his reads change and update organically, and seem consistent with what he's actually said as the game goes on.

And last for the moment because that took 40+ minutes! I'll be back, I would like to do something other than just mafia today.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I don't have a lot of time, but I disagree about PV. He is objectively taking any post by us and interpreting it in the most negative way possible. If one could interpret a post four or five ways along a spectrum from super townie to townie to null to scummy to super scummy, PV has consistently chosen to read the post with the worst possible interpretation/assumption each time, even to the point of making absurd assertions.

Maybe that's just something we notice because we try to avoid being locked into cognitive biases, and so we notice when someone appears to be locked into a bias of reading the worst possible interpretation into any given post.

Gotta run till later,
Drixx

P-Edit - He's intentionally casting every post by us in the worst possible light. You are trying to be objective. If you were reading every post we made through the worst possible lens, I'm sure you would have "noticed" the things you think you missed. You only "missed" them because they aren't there and you are behaving much more rationally and actually trying to genuinely figure the game out. That was, I believe, the main conclusion Cerb came to from reading your ISO ... that your posting is genuine town posting and not imitation town posting.

PV is either super crazy deep down the conf bias rabbit hole, or he's trying to imitate town posting by participating with the day's main wagon and taking any chance he sees to interpret posts in a way that allows him to "point out" something that other people "missed" so he appears to be generating original content. I don't want to be stuck in my own confirmation bias, so I will evaluate him again later myself instead of just assuming the worst.

[Reasonably Rational]

let it come down
let it all come down

get up
get in
get out

do
you
have
SOMETHING
to say?

antihero's big reads list

i'm tired of hearing ppl say i don't have reads or they don't know the reasons. they're there. so now there's a centralized place for all of them.
no excuses anymore.

town reads

BotLane (hydra of Ankamius and d3x)

contrary to what seems to be the common wisdom, i don't think the performer vote was a bus because they didn't dress up their votes with any reasons. that's where a lot of the power of bussing comes from: to make yourself look like a strong town player. i also like how ank's aggression's been focused.

[up next, my scum reads. they get their own post. i also have to go eat something b/c i'm starving. so... breaktime.]

also, botlane's scum

so... yeah. there's that.

yep can do that
VOTE: botlane

Do you have a case or are you tunneling just to tunnel?

Interactions with both flipped scum. And you've done nothing.

Yeah Ank needs death immediately.

yep, p much

I'm confused by this. I'm pretty sure Ank/Botlane had done just as much nothing before you made your reads and when you made your vote now. What changed? What interactions with performer and MM did you see that I missed when I went through his ISO?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Cerb they probably admitting they failed with some of their reads.
Reads change you know.

Of course. There's always a reason for a read to change though, and I like to know these reasons so I know how much weight I should give to someones opinion. I just don't see any content from the Ankamius/Botlane slot between the town read and the shift to a scum read. I don't have much time this morning though, so that's really all I was able to look at.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm confused by this. I'm pretty sure Ank/Botlane had done just as much nothing before you made your reads and when you made your vote now. What changed? What interactions with performer and MM did you see that I missed when I went through his ISO?

it's tth's read and i'm not going to steal her thunder.

i also... kind of talked at length about trying to figure out which scum i was townreading and i'm also pretty certain we BOTH said botlane's place in the town list was one of the weaker ones so i'm a little confused by the selective quoting on your part, cerb.

Sorry, I thought those posts were from you and/or indicated a read you had. You told me the way to tell the difference between the two of you was the usage of standard punctuation, and standard punctuation wasn't used in the posts I quoted.

The rest of the particular post I quoted didn't say anything about the whole trying to figure out what scum you were townreading etc., and I, as I said, don't have much time this morning. I just thought that I remembered you had said you were townreading ank, and saw you voting him, which made me go back and find the post where you townread him to make sure I wasn't crazy, then thought it would be nice if I made your wall a not wall. I'll be sorta here in like 45 minutes when I get to work if anyone wants to talk further.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Okay, you made me go back and double check my previous iso skim, and I see now that in 2296 you did specifically mention thinking TWiE, Botlane, and myself were the least town in your previous wallpost. Inconsistency resolved, carry on.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Went and read Peregrine to see if he had a hit on a watch. Doesn't appear he did. But I did note that he spent nearly the entirety of d2 pushing an RR lynch. I found him scummy d1, but didn't pursue due to the opinion of my other head.
Agree that this is surely not crumb that town!BP leaves:

[snip]
We're not in the least bit worried about being vigged. In fact ... a vig shooting us would accomplish absolutely nothing but wasting a vig shot. [snip]
With Love and Affection,
Drixx

If you're town!BP you'd want to crumb something investigative and/or just plays balls out obvtownie. This may have already been covered, but
@Drixx - what was your thought behind even crumbing BP in the first place?
-Panther

What's wrong with our approach? Stay alive and draw the scum into feeling they need to lynch us which gets them to potentially expose themselves. Live long enough to get to where we start to excel at solving games and become a large enough threat to draw scum fire. We can have it all if we play it right. The best possible outcome is that scum get themselves caught trying to get us mislynched (Hi Vedith!), and then we do our thing and start pressuring enough scum to draw a NK attempt which fails, and then we end up getting a lot of utility out of our role and play.

What's weird about your strategy is that you would supposedly survive a targeted NK because you're BP, so why would you say something that dissuades scum from targeting you.

"The best possible outcome" would be to draw the NK to have scum waste it, which you do the opposite of with that crumb. You said you crumbed what you did because of the role you are, but with your role I would expect you to crumb very differently than how you did

Planting the idea that we're a dangerous role to try and night kill makes the scum have to pursue killing us via mislynch. Coming off of our performance in SU, it seemed likely for a scum team to view us as a threat. So there's utility in drawing scum out who try to wagon or take advantage of town scum reading us (Oh, hi Vedith again). Then if we can replicate our play in SU and be a strong enough threat to scum with our play, they will try and kill us even if it might result in a 1-for-1 trade, and we could get role utility (unless they send a strongman type kill). BP generally cannot be relied upon to provide utility, although PV did give some advice that might be useful at some future point when I/we pull BP again.

But the main point, from my perspective, is that I was pretty confident coming off of the SU game and want to do just as well this game. I think we may have already drawn scum out onto our wagon (Hi Vedith!), but I regret the necessity to hard claim our role, simply because why on earth would scum shoot us now? I suppose it could still have a tiny bit of utility if they have a limited strongman ability and we live past today and we play well enough to force them to use it to get rid of us.

If RR's claiming full bulletproof, it's understandable that a one-shot modifier claim would very out of place.

RR said the "back up" portion was what made them skeptical, not the "one shot"

Also all BPs pretty much are 1-shot

You would think that. A Titus modded game just ended where the scum team tried to kill the same target something like 5 nights in a row and he was just commuting every night. None of the scum team player are like really dumb people or anything ... it was just a game with a lot of possible mechanics and I think they just never realized until too late that it was only a single mechanic stopping the kill.

That would be the dream scenario though. Totally take it to the scum every day and have them fail to kill us over and over at night. I would derive a ridiculous amount of enjoyment from seeing that in the post game.

We're not in the least bit worried about being vigged. In fact ... a vig shooting us would accomplish absolutely nothing but wasting a vig shot.

This is the first thing that I can find that even remotely resembles a crumb and its for BP and not PGO. So if you could point out your actual crumb if i missed it when you get a chance that'd be great.

Yeah I already said that in post #700 I said something that made it obvious.

I can link you to a game where I crumbed BP in a way that made KlinconCelt assume I was a bomb, if you find meta useful at all. I have been really super consistent with how I play as BP. I crumbed it in We Didn't Playtest This, as well. There's a newbie game that just finished where I crumbed it in twilight of day one. Like ... the most reliable thing on the site is if I have BP, I'm going to crumb it in some way to try and leverage it into usefulness.

Those are Drixx posts, if it's not obvious, and it's a thing we have discussed at great length already.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

As much as I don't want to lynch Vedith while he's being a stubborn fuck about his target, the more he is a stubborn fuck about his target the more I think he's scum.

When was he a stubborn fuck? Did I miss that? Iirc, he and others just wanted to slow the wagon down to figure out who he should shoot and make sure they were on the wagon. I might be misremembering, not in a position to double check.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Why did the game slow down so much after lynch scum two days in a row? Are we at the part where people get stupid and lazy and think the game is won and just screw up the mid game? I've been busy with work all week, I guess it's time to work on actually making some progress.

davesaz: Would you mind giving out a larger reads list with reasons? I asked you for this yesterday but you never got back to me.

Ank: I get that you anticipated having a partner to help you deal with the workload of keeping up the game, but that doesn't excuse the fact that you haven't. done. anything.

Cephrir(and everyone else voting for dave): Why dave? Is it just lack of content, because, well, there are a number of candidates for least productive slot.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Cephrir(and everyone else voting for dave): Why dave? Is it just lack of content, because, well, there are a number of candidates for least productive slot.

No, his content is scummy and wrong and undeservedly egotistical

Everyone else seems to think he is always those things though so :/

I'm not sure I'm seeing the scumminess of it. It's true that I don't see anything that shouts "town to me in his iso" but that isn't quite the same as finding things that should "scum".

pisskop: that's...super weak. From my perspective, everyone *always* needs a reason for the things they do. It seems you disagree though.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Back to isoing a bit. pisskop is kinda a bitch to iso because of the lack of context, but I grabbed the posts where I saw him express a stance on something.

Ill be able to talk about my vedi experience soon, needless to say I dont see the unfocus on him as good.

Fire is town for meta. And because weverybody in the world townreads the slot. But mostly meta.

MM needs to be prodded or replaced

. I dont even remember his meta very well, at least as it pertains to our shared experiences.

Vedi, now that 610 is over, why does your play here feel different?

Was the stuff in the above quotes addressed with regards to Vedith?

I would be lying if I said Ive been keeping notes or a list of anything about this game on hand, but:

-Vedi
-RR
-MM

Are all popular, and:

-Botlane
-Peri
-kthnx

are supported by a small group of people.

I thnk out of those 6 Id have the most reservation about lynchng kthnx.

Are you strongly townreading the players outside of this group+herry+dave+heartless(actually, now that I think about it, that's a pretty significant portion of the playerlist)

I have sudden niggling doubts about Heartless and i think I could support a hairytiger pressure tomorrow

Have you resolved the heartless doubts?

Performer, who replaced mcjoel, who was a Mafia goon, has been lynched on Day 1.
ika, who was a vanilla townie, has been blowtorched on Night 1.
Maxous, who was a jailkeeper, has been crushed by a case of soda on Night 1.

We know its probs singleball with an SK?

I'm interested in this. You mention the SK thing again later. Why are you certain it's a SK rather than a vig? I don't necessarily disagree(it's way smarter to play with paranoia and assume SK>vig), but is there any reason for your preference of that particular setup spec?

panther hasnt been playing, Dave is a good vig, and frankly so is hairytiger

vote: herry

Dave is a good vig, but not a good lynch?

All in all pretty consistent. I don't think I've seen him push anyone or anything really, but he hasn't done anything scummy at all, no baseless pushes or questionable stance changes.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

*snip*

Reasonably Rational - Also based on the claim but to a lesser degree. The Drixx posting reminds me more of a game where he was scum than games where he was town. The posts seem scripted to look town. Much better fit for a SK role than groupscum due to VCA, though I can buy the VCA in terms of bussing as well. The Drixx scum game I'm comparing to featured some really hardcore bussing. *snip*

Firstly, as you well know, meta is worthless when dealing with people who are aware of meta and tinker with their playstyle.

Secondly, I think I have four games on this site where I was scum. The first was my first game on site and I replaced into a newbie scum slot and won. The second game I was killed night one by the Serial Killer (Egg) who made it all the way to LYLO after taking out most of the scum team, and probably should have won. That day got cut off at a really award time, but I was by no means busing anyone and I was actually legit scum hunting since the setup was known to have an SK and I was looking for them. I was then in a multiball game where I again was killed early by a member of the other scum team.

The only other scum game I can recall is SMITE, where I replaced in, and there was no busing involved there either.

I think what I'm getting at here is that you are full of shit.


But hey ... when under pressure, just flail and try to restart a previous wagon, amirite?

Just *SMH*,
Drixx

P.S. - If I had to pick right now, I think neither of the current wagons have nearly as much reason to push them than Vedith does. We've got his claim already ... he's done fuck all in the game and the worst case scenario with lynching him is that he's honest and takes out someone on his wagon. If he's actually town, it's reasonable that he would shoot the next most probable scum and we can obviously tell whomever we like to be on the wagon as refusing to do so would be essentially just claiming to be scum.

Also ... am I the only one who has a bad feeling about people just wanting to rush through the day and lynch someone without evaluating others? Cerb and I haven't even finished going through everyone's ISOs yet, and there are people just lurking while these wagons build up without much resistance. Just because two scum doesn't mean we've won. Getting lazy and/or apathetic right now is terrible.

@Whomever

that brought up our day one view of Performer, please humor me and go look at the Steven Universe game and look at the posts right around the end of the day Fro99er got lynched. He actually self hammered while I was typing up a post asking people to not rush to judgment before all the facts were known (he had been watched visiting someone who didn't die, and that someone revealed while I was typing the post that something they did was blocked from happening). I got mocked for defending scum when all I was actually doing was stressing that people should actually engage their brains and evaluate things before moving.

That's basically one of my signature traits. Same with Cerb. We don't rush to vote and we want people to actually evaluate things. Right now, I'm concerned that almost nothing is being evaluated. Like seriously ...

What's the rush?

. Hasty decisions (that don't have a cop guilty or something driving them) are rarely to the town's benefit.

[Reasonably Rational]

Even after the flip you have scum reads on both vedith and RR?

Given the way the game has gone, we're probably viewed as a relatively easy mislynch by scum, who need to get mislynches going if they are going to have any hope of fighting back and getting into the game. Kthx had his vote on MM before we did, but he didn't really make a case or anything. The MM wagon happened when we decided to stop arguing in circles with people and went looking for scum. There wasn't really much content with MM to work with, but I think the first actual case with reasons and some logical thought about why MM was likely scum came from us via Cerberus. Monkey went out of his way to rub scummy stink on us on his way out, going so far as to claim to be a rolecop and "confirm" our claim. What scum say after being lynched is super WiFoM, but from our view point, the intent there is pretty clear.

Now add in davesaz being a top wagon today and he's suddenly referring to me personally and claiming my posting is scripted like some scum game he claims to have played with me that I'm pretty sure doesn't exist.

He's in trouble and hoping he can derail his wagon by appealing to a (false) meta argument. At least, that's my take at the moment. I think when we talked about dave, we didn't see a lot in his ISO to work with. I think we should take another look since he felt the need to outright lie and hope people bought it.

~Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

Psssshhhhhh.... Fucking lynch me then.

I said I found something on Spiffeh and all the sudden there is a push on my for my lynch. Well here is my response:



AND, so so far the case on me has been crap and people want to lynch me. I'll just say let it be and rub it in yo face when the games over.

Fyi, I never actually look at any of the videos you post. What have you found about Spiffeh? Are you suggesting that the people pushing for your lynch now are scum?

-Cerb

Pedit: ninjad. I haven't been through spiffeh stuff yet but from what I recall what you're saying IS correct, but it's not alignment indicative in and of itself. Any specific examples of things you found scummy?

[Reasonably Rational]

Psst, pisskop, mind responding?

Back to isoing a bit. pisskop is kinda a bitch to iso because of the lack of context, but I grabbed the posts where I saw him express a stance on something.

Ill be able to talk about my vedi experience soon, needless to say I dont see the unfocus on him as good.

Fire is town for meta. And because weverybody in the world townreads the slot. But mostly meta.

MM needs to be prodded or replaced

. I dont even remember his meta very well, at least as it pertains to our shared experiences.

Vedi, now that 610 is over, why does your play here feel different?

Was the stuff in the above quotes addressed with regards to Vedith?

I would be lying if I said Ive been keeping notes or a list of anything about this game on hand, but:

-Vedi
-RR
-MM

Are all popular, and:

-Botlane
-Peri
-kthnx

are supported by a small group of people.

I thnk out of those 6 Id have the most reservation about lynchng kthnx.

Are you strongly townreading the players outside of this group+herry+dave+heartless(actually, now that I think about it, that's a pretty significant portion of the playerlist)

I have sudden niggling doubts about Heartless and i think I could support a hairytiger pressure tomorrow

Have you resolved the heartless doubts?

Performer, who replaced mcjoel, who was a Mafia goon, has been lynched on Day 1.
ika, who was a vanilla townie, has been blowtorched on Night 1.
Maxous, who was a jailkeeper, has been crushed by a case of soda on Night 1.

We know its probs singleball with an SK?

I'm interested in this. You mention the SK thing again later. Why are you certain it's a SK rather than a vig? I don't necessarily disagree(it's way smarter to play with paranoia and assume SK>vig), but is there any reason for your preference of that particular setup spec?

panther hasnt been playing, Dave is a good vig, and frankly so is hairytiger

vote: herry

Dave is a good vig, but not a good lynch?

All in all pretty consistent. I don't think I've seen him push anyone or anything really, but he hasn't done anything scummy at all, no baseless pushes or questionable stance changes.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Psst, pisskop, mind responding?

Back to isoing a bit. pisskop is kinda a bitch to iso because of the lack of context, but I grabbed the posts where I saw him express a stance on something.

Ill be able to talk about my vedi experience soon, needless to say I dont see the unfocus on him as good.

Fire is town for meta. And because weverybody in the world townreads the slot. But mostly meta.

MM needs to be prodded or replaced

. I dont even remember his meta very well, at least as it pertains to our shared experiences.

Vedi, now that 610 is over, why does your play here feel different?

Was the stuff in the above quotes addressed with regards to Vedith?

I would be lying if I said Ive been keeping notes or a list of anything about this game on hand, but:

-Vedi
-RR
-MM

Are all popular, and:

-Botlane
-Peri
-kthnx

are supported by a small group of people.

I thnk out of those 6 Id have the most reservation about lynchng kthnx.

Are you strongly townreading the players outside of this group+herry+dave+heartless(actually, now that I think about it, that's a pretty significant portion of the playerlist)

I have sudden niggling doubts about Heartless and i think I could support a hairytiger pressure tomorrow

Have you resolved the heartless doubts?

Performer, who replaced mcjoel, who was a Mafia goon, has been lynched on Day 1.
ika, who was a vanilla townie, has been blowtorched on Night 1.
Maxous, who was a jailkeeper, has been crushed by a case of soda on Night 1.

We know its probs singleball with an SK?

I'm interested in this. You mention the SK thing again later. Why are you certain it's a SK rather than a vig? I don't necessarily disagree(it's way smarter to play with paranoia and assume SK>vig), but is there any reason for your preference of that particular setup spec?

panther hasnt been playing, Dave is a good vig, and frankly so is hairytiger

vote: herry

Dave is a good vig, but not a good lynch?

All in all pretty consistent. I don't think I've seen him push anyone or anything really, but he hasn't done anything scummy at all, no baseless pushes or questionable stance changes.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

::) I kinda do, because of how wacky they are.

I dont townread dave or Herry, and don't know where you got that idea from.

When I mentioned Vedith by name, its because I was talking to him, not about him.

Why are you asking questions to ask them? Buzz away, busy bee.

Why does it matter what my opinion of the SK is. There's bullets, I havent noticed a crumb Id call reliable, and that mastin kill yo. I have a pet peeve about people killing 'godly' players because they're simply afraid of them.

Why, again? Yes, Dave would be a better vig than lynch. Why waste a lynch on what a vig is supposed to optimally do? IF you believe in a vig over an SK then you should believe that the mastin kill was suboptimal from a town pov.

You misread my post. In the quoted line by you, you listed a group of players who the town as a whole was suspicious of. Elsewhere you expressed suspicion of dave/herry/heartless. My question was, of the players outside that group, are you strongly townreading all of them.

About Vedith: you said there was something that related to him that you would talk about later. I assume that is the question you asked him about the other game? I'm really just making sure I'm properly following what you were saying in that exchange, and curious as to how it relates to the current game, since I'm not gonna go read the game you referenced.

The reasons why people hold the opinions they do about the game state or setup always matter. I agree that mastin was a suboptimal kill for a vig, but she was also a suboptimal kill for a sk. That's why other people aren't nearly as certain as you are that there is a sk rather than a vig. It is confusing , though, that you feel that there is more likely a sk than a vig, but you referred to someone as a better vig than lynch.

Also, feel free to not answer my questions in the future if you feel they're "wacky"(which I assume is your way of saying that you don't see the point), but please do at least note that you are choosing to not respond to me so I don't waste my time repeating the questions.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Why does it matter what my opinion of the SK is. There's bullets, I havent noticed a crumb Id call reliable, and that mastin kill yo. I have a pet peeve about people killing 'godly' players because they're simply afraid of them.

Why, again? Yes, Dave would be a better vig than lynch. Why waste a lynch on what a vig is supposed to optimally do? IF you believe in a vig over an SK then you should believe that the mastin kill was suboptimal from a town pov.

[quote="In
The reasons why people hold the opinions they do about the game state or setup always matter. I agree that mastin was a suboptimal kill for a vig, but she was also a suboptimal kill for a sk. That's why other people aren't nearly as certain as you are that there is a sk rather than a vig. It is confusing , though, that you feel that there is more likely a sk than a vig, but you referred to someone as a better vig than lynch.

Umm, why the assumption that mastin wasn't the mafia kill?

Perhaps you should ask pisskop that rather than quoting me, when I was responding to his assertions.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'd like a VC.

Is there any reasoning behind the votes for LQ other than his reluctance to lynch Vedith?

Firebringer: Gotta learn that people who insult you aren't worth reacting to. Just a suggestion for life. If you feel insulted either the person didn't intend to do it, in which case your irritation is unwarranted, or they did mean to do it, in which case you don't have any reason to react the way they desire.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'd like a VC.

Is there any reasoning behind the votes for LQ other than his reluctance to lynch Vedith?

Firebringer: Gotta learn that people who insult you aren't worth reacting to. Just a suggestion for life. If you feel insulted either the person didn't intend to do it, in which case your irritation is unwarranted, or they did mean to do it, in which case you don't have any reason to react the way they desire.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm going to be pissed of Vedith turns out Town.

You thinking Ved is scum.

I think we have enough to flip Vedith.

You thinking Ved is a good lynch and want to see flip.

Vedith is Town because Spiffeh said earlier that they are scum and I am Scum reading Spiffeh HARD!

You COMPLETELY changing your read on Ved because you now think Spiffeh is scum and Spiffeh says Ved is scum?

You see, here-in lies the problem. You only changed to this 'Spiffeh is scum and says Ved is scum so Ved is town' bullshit AFTER you were asked to vote Ved to put your money where your mouth was and was given enough reason to think Ved would target you with a Venge kill.

Sorry, I don't buy your change of reads here at all. You look like scum pushing for a Venge town lynch without actually putting yourself in harms way. When told to put yourself in harms way, your change in toon is way too convenient.

More votes LQ. He is today's lynch. Thinking 3 for 3 anyone?

I don't really see the above as representing the narrative you seem to think it's representing. I don't really see a hard read given about Ved prior to the declaration that he's town because of the Spiffeh thing...though, with that said, LQ, why aren't you and haven't you been pushing Spiffeh if you're so sure he's scum?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I don't really see the above as representing the narrative you seem to think it's representing. I don't really see a hard read given about Ved prior to the declaration that he's town because of the Spiffeh thing...though, with that said, LQ, why aren't you and haven't you been pushing Spiffeh if you're so sure he's scum?

-Cerb

Do either of you have reads?

Drixx and I have been having trouble getting together to discuss the game and evaluate things, but we should both be free tomorrow night to go over things and re-evaluate everyone based upon what we now know and share a meaningful reads list.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Stupid Drixx wasn't feeling up to analyzing the game and stuff with me, and I'm too damn lazy to do a proper job right now. I did go through LQ's stuff a bit because the reasons given for the wagon on him seemed shitty. The quotes used before don't actually demonstrate what Vedith was trying to say they demonstrated, but a lot of his other posting is pretty bad.

A short synopsis stolen from my irc log with Drixx cuz, again, I'm lazy.

So, 697 he has a scum read on Ved, us, and spiffeh.
760 votes ved
1273 spiffeh is town, ved and us are scum.
Votes Vedith a few different times actually
He was also the first person to actually lay out why they found MM scummy
Though his reasoning was difficult to follow
And thus everyone ignored it
1601 more thinking ved is scummy
Okay, 1837, he says he thinks Vedith is a good lynch after Vedith's claim, which he says he doesn't believe
1907 says mm is a bad wagon

And now, he's saying Vedith is town, on the basis of Spiffeh, who he scum reads(in spite of having him as a moderate town read in 1273(yes, it was a long time ago, but he hasn't said much on that subject between then and now), saying he's scum, when that's not something Spiffeh says. AND he also doesn't want to vote vedith because he doesn't want to die(which isn't a claim I could really see scum making, it's...I don't know, I just don't see how it could possibly help you out, but I don't think it's a major indicator of anything), but in 1837 he said he didn't believe Ved's claim

The wagon is composed almost entirely of individuals who haven't been super productive this game or done lots of pushing, but I don't feel like the composition can mean too much at this point. We don't have enough scum left for someone to be wary of a wagon due to composition, unless they honestly think the entire scum team decided to hop on the same push all at once?

This is kinda just thoughts flowing out of my head, I'm tired, but it the point of the whole ramble is in spite of the fact that LQ's wagon is full of people who aren't exactly the most upstanding town slots, he's been contradicting himself pretty majorly ever since the idea of him getting vigged started to be floated around, and in a lot more ways than people bothered pointing out before.

LQ, can you explain the process that lead you to conclude Vedith=town. I'll grant you that if you believe ved is town, then you would believe his claim, so that change kinda all flows together(I'd need to go back and see the exact timeline of when each of these concerns are mentioned to see if that actually makes sense), but I still don't follow how spiffeh is town in 1273 and scum now, mostly because you haven't actually said anything. What is it about your reread of the latter half of the game that made you think he was scum now? Also, I really don't like how you go from making a case against MM(I think someone mentioned this earlier, I don't know) to thinking he was a bad wagon, without actually giving a reason for it.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Yeah, well no one wants to be lynched either, but if hes town its clearly better for him to be venged over being lynched.

This is absolutely not true. If he's town, and gets venged, that means vediths claim is true, which means Vedith is like super duper likely town, which means that sequence makes us kill two town with one mislynch. That actually isn't a good result at all. I get the argument that it's better for us to cut through the mislynch bait without having to spend an actual lynch on them, but I'm just pointing out that I don't see any reason why town him would feel being venged is actually a good thing, especially given the fact that he's not actually huge mislynch bait/a major distraction/someone without content to sort them, like yourself.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I didn't like either of their answers to my question about why they're scumreading me. I still fully believe there's scum-intent somewhere to that initial push on me at the beginning of the day.

I can't believe you're uptight about a read that was explicitly stated as

weak

, and hasn't even been voted.
If someone fit the profile for bussing Performer, you and Monkey would be the ones. One of those two VCA reads has already flipped scum.
I won't drop the other one just for kicks. If it's you, me and a strong town at LYLO, you'll be the caught scum.
But this is far from a push. LQ is flopping like a fish, I don't trust Vedith because the way he claimed venge is a scumtell, and

I still think Drixx's "love & kisses" thing is scum acting a role.

We have one other completed game, you're welcome to see whether or not Drixx signs his posts in that fashion there as well. Like...that's the worst reason to think someone is scum that I've heard in quite some time, so kudos on that.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm really sorry guys. Between work, my car breaking down yesterday, and Fallout 4 coming out this week, I don't believe Mafia has ever been a lower priority for me. I'll get back into actually bring involved in the game and not just tangentially reading along and pointing out things I think are wrong later today.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I honestly think TWIE is intentionally staying quiet trying to drift through to the end. I see scum wanting to do just that due to 2 good lynches in a row. They are on the ropes and I have bad vibes coming from that slot and I want it lynched.

I haven't been wrong yet...

Both fallacies. The TWIE thing can be applied to a lot of people, as Heartless said, AND he was behaving this way prior to the scum lynches, therefore you can't say said lynches resulted in his behavior. However, his behavior IS anti-town, so there is that.

With the second post, being right in the past doesn't mean you'll be right in the future.

I'll be back shortly, I just caught those posts and had to respond.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

A couple of points.

1) It is almost certainly optimal for us to leave Vedith until lylo, as I have said before, because if he IS venge, his chance of hitting scum is higher in the smaller pool of players in a lylo situation and he thus has a better chance of saving the game, rather than just handing a free kill to scum, and if he isn't venge, well, then we lynched scum and we're fine.

2) Cross kill searching? Seriously? We've lynched scum 3 days in a row. They WANT the game to get to end game as quickly as possible, and I can't imagine someone feeling secure enough in their unlynchability as scum in this game to actually want to increase the number of lynches they need to avoid(which is what actually succeeding in killing the vig/sk will do). Sure, they increase the chance that they're going to just get cross-killed/vigged, but they give the town less time to PoE the game down to certainty about who the remaining scum are. I'm more inclined to believe the kills have been selected precisely to do what they did...confuse everyone, and leave people paranoid, so the established town block that already exists tears itself apart.

Kthxbye: I don't think the vig actually has to claim for us to utilize them, if they are a vig. It could be as simple as us going Vote: x and Vig: Y in our votes today. If they're town, they'll go through the trouble of control F'ing for through this day phase to determine who the town decided should be vigged, and they'll shoot them. If they're an SK, they weren't claiming anyways and they aren't going to do what we tell them to do. I admit your plan does remove the paranoia of "is the vig actually a sk or member of the scum team who's just playing us" by painting a target on the slot so it's less likely they'll survive, but I think the kills that have happened so far this game have shown us that we can't predict with any sort of certainty what scum will actually do.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

now's not the time to be conservative and start planning for lylo. (seriously how fucked is that?)

This mindset is how towns in a hugely advantageous spot (like the one we're in) lose games. Vedith is a binary proposition:

1.) He's being honest
2.) He's scum

If he's scum, it's really not super relevant

when

we lynch him; just that we do.

If he's being honest, then when we lynch him we are handing the scum (including possible SK in the mix) a mislynch. Conservatively just factoring in probability and not any reads or anything else, an honest Vedith would have a

much greater

probability of nailing scum with the claimed venge power later in the game with fewer targets to select from.


I am all for the

carpe diem

approach implicit in your post. Finish it while the finishing is good. Before you get all gung ho; however, think through the situation a little bit. We had two kills last night, so we can assume the scum team was at least four strong. Assume the other kill is an SK, to be on the safe side. That means that, best case scenario, we are 9-1-1 today. While it seems unlikely that the scum and the 3rd party killer will go the entire game without hitting the same target, it remains

possible

, and should we mislynch the next two days and should the two kills come in on separate people the next two days, we'll be staring at a very ugly 3-1-1 situation where we have to lynch correctly two days in a row.

THAT

is the situation that Cerberus is thinking of when he suggests Vedith may not be the best lynch today.


There is unfortunately a serious

problem

with his thinking which is potentially easy to overlook: if Vedith is telling the truth, and we decide clearly that we will lynch him at the most opportune time strategically ... then scum just kills him and we lose his role utility.

So, in my opinion (and I suspect Cerb will agree when he wakes this morning), Vedith is probably the right lynch today. Either he is scum, in which case yipee kiy yay motherfu**er, or he's telling the truth and hopefully uses his kill on whomever we ask. If we don't lynch him today, and he's telling the truth, it would take monumentally incompetent scum to leave him alive to be a possible "snatch victory from the jaws of defeat" option for us.


Love, with fresh baked chocolate chip cookies,
Drixx

P.S. - I've been under the weather, so wallposting. Sorry.

[Reasonably Rational]

RR vote for Vedith please

I would like for Cerberus to be awake and review my thinking from the post I just made. I believe Vedith is the correct lynch today for reasons I just outlined.

[Reasonably Rational]

Scum is going to kill vedith exactly never. there is no reason to be afraid of him. if he's town, lynching him is the same as lynching someone else really, only an additional body is lost, and it's not like they're going to be quivering in fear of his scumhunting prowess

I agree that Vedith doesn't seem to have tried to figure out much of anything. Perhaps he has something in his nose that has been really bothering him? I think the base assumption that is implicit in what Cerberus was saying is that an honest Vedith represents a kill for the town, and would be much more likely to result in a positive outcome later than sooner.

There are obviously more problems with that than just what I said.


Love, with some Timon just for you Ceph,
Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

Whatever. I talked to Drixx, and even though there are most likely two anti-town role left in a town of 11, we lynch Vedith now, he has a 20% chance of hitting scum, versus lynching him at 6, where he'd have a 40% chance of hitting scum, he disagrees with my assessment and has a way better record as town than 0/4 on this site me, so sure, it's better to lynch him now.

VOTE: Vedith

And yes, vedith is welcome to venge us, but it won't do anything but prove our claim, as we stated back on Day 2, so though there is utility in guaranteeing that his venge won't result in two town deaths, it's arguable that it might be better to use it on someone who could actually be scum.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Can we not hammer until later tonight at least or something, work is way less crazy this week and I'd like to actually get the chance to interact with some people and see if there's actually any reasonable suspects for scum other than just the obvious ones.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

And by the above I mean I won't be able to actually reread anything etc until I get home.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

they claimed full BP.

why would a doc need to save them?

We never claimed anything about whether or not our BP is limited. There's no benefit to scum knowing whether or not they can kill us eventually. You are making assumptions.

Really need to work now, I'll be ignoring mafia for the next 6 hours or so.

-Ceeb

[Reasonably Rational]

the jk+bomb+2nd kill+whatever protective spiffeh's been softclaiming all game do not bode well for rr

neither does the fact that the one time they bothered to get off their asses was to lynch town.

All sorts of people have claimed credit for the MM lynch, but if you go back and look at the game, we came rather close to being lynched before, and there came a point when we decided that constantly defending ourselves was useless and we started evaluating players and while our vote wasn't first in the VCA, I do believe we actually put the first CASE up against him. Vedith was super widely scum read and outright

lied

about his role, costing us a valuable resource, but we should totally be prosecuted because we were on that? Seriously?

And if you are so sure, why no vote or even direct question(s) for us?

Yeah RR is def not a town BP with a bomb and a jailkeeper.

VOTE: Reasonably Rational

Your setup spec isn't a case. There are other people who are scummier.


For example:

firebringer... you are an enigma...

your posts are scummy. but you alibi yourself very well in the vca.

Oh look, here you are again throwing shade on someone. But no questions for firebringer, nor a vote. It's almost like you are suggesting various people who might be scum and waiting to see if someone else will take the lead. What's up with that? You have come across as pretty strong and not scummy most of the game, but this day start feels super wrong from you.

[Reasonably Rational]

^ by Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

Weird observation: Pisskop has been speculating that the 2nd kill was an SK all game, but then calls it a good vig kill at day start. Heartless, meanwhile, has been calling it a Vig but then changes his mind at day start and says it's a Serial Killer.

Personally, I would suggest assuming a serial killer because assuming Vig and being wrong

could

be exceptionally costly.

So what's up with the change in speculation you two?

~Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

Actually I think I misread Pisskop. He's been correcting people who said SK and I had him noted wrong. I checked ISO to be sure and caught my error.

Question still stands for Heartless however.

[Reasonably Rational]

seriously, my style has been to thought vomit all game and just now you have an issue with it?

Nope. I've had problems with it before. It's just that today I'm re-evaluating everyone and the way you started out the day raised a lot of questions.

[Reasonably Rational]

Setup spec won me a game here soooooo yes it is a valid argument.

It doesn't make sense for all three of jailkeeper bomb and bp exist.

Actually it sort of does. Have you looked at the powers on the scum team flips? They had a vanilla cop (I believe that tells them whether someone has a role or not?), and a Ninja ... that we've seen.

There's also two people killing every night, who have never targeted the same targets. That's like bordering on absurd and making me a little paranoid, and I

really

think we should be assuming SK over vig for safety.

I'm not willing to bet the game on setup spec, especially when our utility potentially forces these two killers to end up

not

producing two bodies should we have a (presumed) SK in play, meaning that today can't end the game no matter what. Unless my count is off, I believe tomorrow is when you paranoia lynch us. Otherwise let us do our thing. There's enough information now, especially now that we can re-evaluate with the mason pairing known, that we might be able to actually hand you scum on a silver platter.

This is the part of the game where Cerb and I nail it.

The way I see it, we should be looking for a scum who has been among those running the town and we need to be looking for signs of an SK. I don't like the constant assumption of Vig that permeates the posts of a lot of now known townies. It's an assumption and I've seen that kind of assumption torpedo really good town games before.

And sorry I left my sig off a couple posts. We were posting back and forth quickly for a moment there. I personally need to sleep. Consider what I'm saying because we've been honest all game and just defaulting on us isn't going to work. This needs to be figured out, and that starts with throwing out assumptions and reviewing things with updated prior assumptions;

especially

since we had masons and their interactions now have a proper context.

I was actually suspecting Kthxbye yesterday, which makes me feel dumb, because I intentionally look for town crumbing to help me figure out the game, and I didn't catch a thing from either of them. Usually I'm really good at it and it helps a lot in figuring out who is town which makes POE so much easier.

Anyway, I'm rambling because I'm tired. Cerb is in a different timezone so he may show up. I've left him a note so we can get together before our DnD game tomorrow and re-evaluate (assuming I can pry his attention away from Fallout 4 ... *sigh*).

~Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

Setup spec won me a game here soooooo yes it is a valid argument.

It doesn't make sense for all three of jailkeeper bomb and bp exist.

a thought i just had...

a strongman + a ninja COULD balance out all the town pr's that flipped w/ the bp being town

That makes some sense. Let us do our thing and see what we find? Presuming an SK, if we could lynch a posited strongman today, that would go a long way towards easing paranoia about us (and would be the 2nd scum we made the primary case against), and our utility would be pretty strong assuming the SK can't get through our BP. I really have to sleep now. I'll be back in less than 8 hours.

~Drixx.

PS - I'm not sure what was up on the day you asked about. I had a death in the family at the end of October and some illness afterward. It may fall in that period where Cerb was carrying the hydra basically without me. I'll check in the morning if that's okay?

[Reasonably Rational]

Good morning all, so I have approximately 33-45 minutes before I should head towards work, and I'll catch up on today so far. First of all, sorry for practically becoming a lurksack myself. Work consumed my life, and then when it stopped being quite so bad, Fallout 4 coonsumed the rest of it...just...not a high priority right now, which is shitty of me. Sorry.

And if you are so sure, why no vote or even direct question(s) for us?

becuz we're scumz and i'm... uh... contradicting myself.

what are you even implying? you're the last person to be criticizing when i vote, esp. considering i'm in a hydra.

We can criticize when anyone votes, especially when *most* people link posts expressing suspicion with votes on the slot they're suspicious of. Just because WE don't do that, doesn't mean we aren't aware that it is normal to do so, and can thus note when someone does it when it isn't in character for them.

that's my playstyle. so... the number of fucks i give about the "problem" you have with it is... zero.

here's a question for you: where were you when the lickety vs ank wagon stuff was going down yesterday?

I believe I spoke up sometime during the day expressing my opinion on both LQ and ank, but for the last, well...while, I've been pretty busy at work and had the misfortune of getting caught using my phone on work time to post, so when the office manager is in I can't really use my phone at all, which has led to a severe decrease in how much I can post, and how much content said posts can really contain. I wasn't able to talk to Drixx about the game yesterday as we had planned, so I can't really speak for him, but he did have a buncha crap happen to him lately. So, well, if you check our iso we *do* have our thoughts about the ank/lq thing in there(or at least, 100% about lq, I'm not sure if Ank ever really gave enough material for me to draw solid conclusions on anything).

Weird observation: Pisskop has been speculating that the 2nd kill was an SK all game, but then calls it a good vig kill at day start. Heartless, meanwhile, has been calling it a Vig but then changes his mind at day start and says it's a Serial Killer.

Antihero's been calling it a vigilante based on the abstract notion of the kills "making sense" as vig kills and mod meta.

My question

now

is: Who is this vig? If you cross-reference the kills to in-thread reads, the "vigilante" is nobody.

This is the best post in the game. We were suspicious of the vig assumption for different reasons(mostly linked to the LQ kill), but this is stellar, A++ town posting. I don't see any reason why scum would attempt to make the town less complacent.

The way I see it, we should be looking for a scum who has been among those running the town

what's the basis for this, drixx?

like... if we were on the tail end of a bunch of mislynches i think that would make sense but you think that after 3 scum lynches over 4 days?

how?

One of the few things I did get to ask Drixx about was this question, because I was a bit confused about it too when you brought it up. He's been suspicious of the people "running the town", as he puts it, for quite some time, since they seem to keep living when it would normally be optimal for scum to kill them. There are two reasons for this conclusion:

1) The fact that we know we are town, and said town bloc has been consistently pushing for us to be lynched when it's unlikely scum would want to attempt to kill us any other way. That leads to the suspicion that some of the motivation behind those pushes isn't pro-town.
2) As I said above, the simple paranoia of the strong voices remaining alive. Simply because the town as a whole has been lynching scum, doesn't mean that the group of people leading the town doesn't include any scum. It's entirely possible they simply were planning on running a bus heavy game to secure the end game(unlikely) or that they just were forced into that position because of the poor play of their teammates(more likely).

Looking at the alive list, I kind of think it just has to be Spiffeh.

...and...?

I'm not sure. I don't really believe that it's RR, though. Assuming a certain assumption I'm making is correct, I would have to say Firebringer is my best guess. But I think I should get that assumption verified today.

This kinda goes with a couple later things I quoted. I'll come back to it there.

I killed Ika, mastin, lickety and dave.

Why LQ?

Usually when town gets in these consensus its not a good thing, just saying.
Anyways, my scumhutning this whole game has been terrible.
I just sheeped Heartless cause I have the strongest town read for them.

I don't have an alternative wagon for you guys, but you seem determined to lynch me. So, have fun?

FB, there have been alternatives offered, and shutting down just because people are pressuring you isn't helpful at all.

another question for reasonably rational now that i'm looking at day 1 again:

you were pushing firebringer on day 1, but after day 1 ended you dropped that push but you didn't change the read nor did you give any reasons for why you stopped the push. anything you want to say about that?

I can tell you what happened? D1's push was a combination of BPC's objectively scummy entrance into the game, and Firebringer's similarly suspicious absurdly specific reads. I think Drixx covered this before, but out of a desire to actually play with BPC, we were willing to let his weird entrance slide, but when he replaced out and firebringer continued the questionable posting, we had to push him on it. After Performer flipped, the early game BPC/Performer interactions made it seem less likely that firebringer was scum. From that point in the game, whenever I was going over ISO's and rereading things, firebringer never jumped out at me, and there was never any reason to actually say anything in particular about him. I just rechecked my ISO, because I do remember when I was going through the game I did have one question for him in 2087. I don't remember if he ever answered, but other than that, nothing ever jumped out at me about the slot. He's just...been there, but hasn't been super lurky, just hasn't been saying anything of note.

I don't really believe that it's RR, though.

any particular reason for this ceph?

Not really. I've just been reading their posts all game and have gotten to the point where they feel like town who just keep being so, so wrong, all the time. I also want to believe in a bulletproof in the setup.

Possibly the best counterpoint to their being town is, unfortunately, performer's claim, which now that I think about it... is really gross :/

Alright, so, in combination with what I said above about firebringer, I don't really get what you're saying about how firebringer feels like the person who it has to be. You gave a reason for not thinking it's us, okay, so whate about the other 5 slots? Maybe 4, because you've been saying heartless is town since D1. Is it just that pisskop is so extremely town, or is it that he's rather far down a PoE list for you? Same question with regards to Spiffeh. I don't really place any faith in VCA, which seems to be the main hangup people have about considering that Spiffeh might be scum, so...beyond that, what reason do you have for PoE'ing Spiffeh out of the list? You think TWiE is a vig, rather than a sk who has been setting up for a vig claim, so okay, sure. But, well, somewhere in there you *have* to be wrong. Its basically impossible for there to be only 4 scum, so there has to be at least one other anti-town individual. Who does it seem likely to be, assuming you're right about firebringer?

You also mentioned something at some point about him crumbing a protective role, and I don't think there is another protective role in this game.

a recent thing he's done is that is was a pretty integral part of that ank wagon. he would've had a really good out with lickety as scum but he didn't take it and he stuck with that ank wagon.

2 kills+ a bomb floating around and you think 2 protectives is unreasonable?

Looking at the setup as a whole, I don't think it fits. I guess it could, but I don't think we need it. Granted, ninja + watcher + no tracker is kind of tacky.

Setup spec. Below, Spiffeh said he didn't have a protective, in spite of claiming to have one(but, given that he never got shot for his blatant claiming, I assume the scum figured he was trying to get killed), but if he did have one, it would have been 3 protectives already. Just noting that the math there would have been a bit wrong.

Heartless, that was in reference to Spiffeh, right? I'll have to go back and see what role he actually played in forming/maintaining the ank wagon.

Cephrir, I'm not sure I get what you mean about ninja+watcher+no tracker being kind of tacky? And how do you know there isn't a tracker?

Should we massclaim? With so few scums left, well get the 'vig' out (since atp his kill is detrimental) and we'll sort this stuff out

You guys already have our claim.

I have to head to work now, sorry for the WoQ, it felt like the fastest way to make sure I commented on everything I noticed that's happened so far this day phase. I'll try to keep up with the conversation abut I might not be able to until this evening. I think I'm going to start rereading D1 and see what I can figure out from interactions there, if anything. We're certainly at the point where early game play should be a strong predictor of alignment.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Is it just that pisskop is so extremely town, or is it that he's rather far down a PoE list for you? Same question with regards to Spiffeh. I don't really place any faith in VCA, which seems to be the main hangup people have about considering that Spiffeh might be scum, so...beyond that, what reason do you have for PoE'ing Spiffeh out of the list? You think TWiE is a vig, rather than a sk who has been setting up for a vig claim, so okay, sure. But, well, somewhere in there you *have* to be wrong. Its basically impossible for there to be only 4 scum, so there has to be at least one other anti-town individual. Who does it seem likely to be, assuming you're right about firebringer?

None, he is on my list

Stupid ride is late. And now I get to be late to work too, yay. *sigh*

Anyways. Okay, so is "your list" Spiffeh/pisskop/Firebringer? or is it just spiffeh/firebringer? Or some other combination that isn't related to my specific post? In any of those cases, is firebringer at the top of said list over the other options on it for any particular reason?

-Cerb

pedit: Alright, so the last two scum are Spiffeh/firebringer to you? Just trying to get a feel for the actual conclusions I can draw about where you stand based on your posts.

[Reasonably Rational]

Short break. Being bulletproof doesn't make us town, , especially when there are two kills. If that's the main reason why you think we're town, Ceph, it's a very bad reason.

Heartless, I would honestly need to look at D3 again to make sure I remember what happened correctly, it was the day we were following the game the least, as you've noted...but if I recall correctly the swing monent where the momentum turned away from LQ amd towards Ank came from the unvote you called Ank out on...given his flip, that unvote was objectively bad, since he implied he had suspicions about the composition of the wagon, without having previously expressed suspicion about those slots and without being able to back up his stance. I might be wrong, but I don't think there was really much of a way for him to save himself or have someone save him in that spot...and it should be super obvious(since you narrowed those possibilities down yourself) which member of said town bloc we are and have been most suspicious of.

It might just be the only person we actually spent more than a sentence asking questions of this morning.

Back to work.

-Cerb

Pedit: boo. I'm in the same place, but I'm trying to get reinvested and I cant do that without real material to work with.

[Reasonably Rational]

One of the few things I did get to ask Drixx about was this question, because I was a bit confused about it too when you brought it up. He's been suspicious of the people "running the town", as he puts it, for quite some time, since they seem to keep living when it would normally be optimal for scum to kill them. There are two reasons for this conclusion:

1) The fact that we know we are town, and said town bloc has been consistently pushing for us to be lynched when it's unlikely scum would want to attempt to kill us any other way. That leads to the suspicion that some of the motivation behind those pushes isn't pro-town.
2) As I said above, the simple paranoia of the strong voices remaining alive. Simply because the town as a whole has been lynching scum, doesn't mean that the group of people leading the town doesn't include any scum. It's entirely possible they simply were planning on running a bus heavy game to secure the end game(unlikely) or that they just were forced into that position because of the poor play of their teammates(more likely).

1) ok NOW you need to start naming names. we have yet to vote you and the rest of the "town core" contingent that HAS been pushing you (minus ceph) have since flipped town (i'm thinking about peregrine, matt, maxous).
2) bussing in a game with an outside killer is crazy suboptimal. the "poor play" argument could apply to monkeyman and performer, but i don't think that holds for ankamius at all. you had lickety here practically begging to be mislynched and there were also viable outs in vedith and dave. you also had a small number of people actually townreading ank. so uhhhh... no not that either. got anything else, drixx?

That was Cerberus posting.

I made the comment and it's pretty easy to see from our viewpoint. Matt and Kthxbye were legit leaders in the town, obviously from their flips, and there are various other people who have been treated as if they are in the "accepted" town block. The last thing MattP said was to kill us today, but we know that we aren't scum like he (and presumably Kthxbye?) thought, which means there's a problem specifically in the group that they were apparently comfortable with in game. Someone they thought was town wasn't if they concluded we were scum is essentially why I felt like we needed to re-evaluate the people in the "running the town" group. Pisskop and Spiffeh were both specifically in mind when I said that, for different reasons. Pisskop was hard crumbing all game and something felt off about that just being accepted (and him living whilest doing so), and Spiffeh is really hard to pin down in terms of his own original content. He replies to just about everything, but says very little in each post, and it's super hard to label anything as

his

. Cerberus also felt some suspicion of the core group that MattP seemed to be accepting as town, but I think his thoughts run more towards Ceph/ You Guys /Twie.

I already pushed you at the start of the day, Heartless, so it's not like I just threw that comment out there and didn't act upon it. Out of everyone who has been obviously part of the group who loosely have been running things and accepting each other as town, I had the hardest time reading you until you decided to just throw the OTAF switch with a couple of posts today.

I'm a little not sure I buy the vig claim, btw. Still chewing on that and need to read through and see if there's a town mindset or some town reasoning that explains the kills, especially LQ.

I'll be reading and taking notes and I think Cerb and I can actually talk this afternoon/evening.

~Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

Heartless, I would honestly need to look at D3 again to make sure I remember what happened correctly, it was the day we were following the game the least, as you've noted...but if I recall correctly the swing monent where the momentum turned away from LQ amd towards Ank came from the unvote you called Ank out on...given his flip, that unvote was objectively bad, since he implied he had suspicions about the composition of the wagon, without having previously expressed suspicion about those slots and without being able to back up his stance. I might be wrong, but I don't think there was really much of a way for him to save himself or have someone save him in that spot...

You are so full of crap.

If it was really that obvious to you, you would have said something at the time and you didn't. Your argument is also contradicted by the fact that the tail end of the wagon was worn down into begrudgingly joining.

and it should be super obvious(since you narrowed those possibilities down yourself) which member of said town bloc we are and have been most suspicious of.

It might just be the only person we actually spent more than a sentence asking questions of this morning.

Oh, of course it's obvious to intelligent people like you and me. But Antihero's a little slow, I think you'll have to spell it out for him.

What are you saying I would have found so obvious at the time? There was nothing to see as obvious until after ank flipped. Am I misunderstanding you or are you calling me full of crap for not sharing my conclusion before I had the information that led me to that conclusion? I'm kinda confused, I feel like we're not discussing the same thing right now.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Your argument is that Ankamius was likely a bus job given that his unvote was "objectively bad" and there wasn't "really much of a way for him to save himself or have someone save him in that spot." The purpose of the discussion in the first place was to examine the argument that "town leaders are scum" which is propped up by "all the scum lynches were so bad they would have gotten caught anyway." I think

that's

crap because there

were

doubters of the Ankamius wagon who were perfectly willing to give Ank a pass on what you called "objectively bad." The reason the wagon even happened to begin with was a pretty hefty amount of badgering and the failure of the Lickety wagon.

Ah, I understand the confusion now.

So, let's recap: I stated that we have been suspicious of the "town bloc" that has become established in this game. You asserted that said suspicions were baseless, because we have lynched scum in 3/4 days while under the direction of said "town bloc". I replied that lynching scum 3/4 days does not guarantee that those driving the lynches are town, and I gave two reasons why. The most likely and, in my mind, compelling reason to disregard any town credit those driving the lynches would have normally garnered comes from performer and MM tying nooses around their own necks for the entire game.

Now on to the crux of what you're calling crap. You seem to be laboring under the mistaken impression that I feel Ank was *supposed* to be bussed. I don't think that's the case at all. I think Ank screwed up at a pivotal moment, and got momentum shifted onto himself, and since in the world I live in, there is a SK, not a vig(this is an aside, but, LQ, as the obvious counterwagon to Ank, who was revealed to be a PR, should not have come anywhere close to consideration for a vig to shoot at. A vig is trying to shoot scum, and shooting LQ almost guaranteed you'd hit town in my opinion.), it seems perfectly reasonable that their partner would realize they had to be on that lynch and not fight against it to have a shot at winning the game.

That is the narrative that I see, that is the line of play I expect *someone* took. With your posting D4, I believe, the posts I was questioning you about, I was very suspicious it was you, but what you've said so far today has largely removed that suspicion in my mind.

Cephrir: It doesn't. To me, the living players who actually have ​*influence*​ in the game and have made things happen are yourself and Heartless. Heartless has raised themselves above suspicion, as in, if they're scum, good fucking game and they deserve to win. You, though, have yet to raise yourself above suspicion.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

GG. We were only a 4 man scum team. Performer replaced in after chat was locked (no daychat) and was objectively awful. MM never communicated with us. We submitted his action for him and he just needed to use a specific word to tell us if his target was a PR or not. He just refused to at all to play with us. We (Cerb and I) actually asked for him to be force replaced and suspended/banned for playing against wincon. Ank lost his hydra partner and didn't appear to have the time to try to salvage it. So the scum team is dead.

Since we were only four, it's basically guaranteed that TWIE is an SK, because only 4 scum with our collection of skills (Ninja, Vanilla cop, 1-shot BP, goon) isn't enough anti-town.

I mean ... grats if it's actually a vig, but I'm pretty sure that would just make me even more irritated at this game. I'll save congratulations for whenever the game is actually over (and my commentary on a couple of things that were bad).

~Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

No WiFoM btw. TWIE basically has to be an SK. We kind of figured he would be smart enough to realize he needed to keep us alive today to keep his chances of winning alive.

I mean us having BP was problematic for him, but he could have shot us tonight to appear to be abiding by the town's wishes that the "vig" not shoot anymore, or he could have just shot someone and tomorrow would have been a kingmaker scenario I think.

We did our best... just feel a little bit short. *sigh*

Love, even in defeat,
Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

Yeah, that's basically the reaction we expected. Seriously though, I have no desire to see TWiE win for lurksacking through the game and doing nothing when we worked our ass off to try to win. This information sharing is *pure* spite. On my part at least. Like, seriously, there's going to be at most one kill tonight, you're going to say it was a no kill gambit to get TWiE lynched, you're going to mislynch a few times and he's going to win.

And yeah, what Drixx said. The LQ kill *seriously* doesn't make sense for a vig. Regardless of how uncooperative he was being, there was basically no chance he was scum. Like none. You don't save the town a mislynch when you deliberately shoot someone who is guaranteed to be town.

Also, sucks being lynched during our DnD session.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

awesome. thanks for confirming the 5 man scumteam for us.

I'm being completely honest. You can assume I'm splashing wine and then you'll just hand the game to the SK. I feel like the SK doesn't deserve to win so I'm just telling you the exact truth. You can doubt me all you like, but it's on your head. I'm telling you that I am explicitly being completely honest because I think the town deserves to win this game just slightly more than the SK, although it's kind of close. You guys didn't exactly have a murderer's row to face off against.

Love, with fresh homemade spaghetti I made this evening,
Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

Yeah, well, we have more information than you do and we disagree. LQ was not a vig kill, it was a sk kill, period. I don't care what mental acrobatics you try to go through to explain it, you are wrong. just make sure you lynch him before/at LYLO. Or dont, and then I guess you guys deserve to lose as much as our team did.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Agreed pisskop. There will be lots to discuss in post. Or maybe lots to discuss in the next 15 hours before the game is locked because it's a school night nad I think SC is probably busy with homework and stuff. Although it is thanksgiving week, so maybe not? idk. Ah well. More time for Fallout 4.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Yeah,

Being lynched during our DnD session when we couldn't at all try and stop it really sucks. It's

super

disappointing that the mod is so predictable in how he sets up games that we basically got setup spec lynched. We claimed honestly. We made the first actual legit case against MM (once it became completely clear that he wasn't going to even let us know what his night result was, seemed like trying to get some credibility was the play).

I am super amused that in being spiteful because we don't think an SK should be able to just lurksack through the game and get the win, we might actually have helped him win. That's insanely amusing from my PoV.

~Drixx