In post 946, Reasonably Rational wrote:@all:
As an aside, unrelated to this game, Cerb and I were wondering how to put links into our signature right justified to direct people to a couple places where they can learn about recognizing and overcoming cognitive biases, learn about the proper way to think rationally and (possibly most critically for mafia play) learn decision and game theory. We've seen other folks do it, so we know it's possible but neither of us can make it work. Thanks in advance to anyone who can help.
While it's nice to see the game moving again, you guys picked a terrible direction to move it in. I suppose it's better than just stagnation.
In post 837, MattP wrote:There's a 70% chance that any 4 players contain at least 1 scum
Can you like ... go and actually read up on probability and how it actually works, and how it applies to game theory and decision theory? Please? I'll even provide the links. I'm not even trying to say anything about the game here. It just seriously hurts to see posts like this. We haven't played together before and you don't know me, but you seem to have a decent reputation, so I wonder what you would be like if you got rid of awful cognitive biases.
In post 854, MattP wrote:Second, regardless of my opinion on you I'm just going to pursue something more fruitful.
VOTE: Reasonably Rational
In post 632, Reasonably Rational wrote:That was a pretty awful claim.
While you're busy being bored in the dead thread, you should re-consider what I said about gut. If you play mafia based upon "gut" that you can't back up with something substantive, you are essentially playing a game based upon your bowels as they randomly digest food and produce feces. I mean ... you can disagree all you want, but if "gut feeling" has any meaning, it can only be one of two things, rationally:
1.) You are picking up on a situation being similar enough to a prior bad situation that your brain tells various glands to start releasing chemicals into your system as part of the fight or flight response. That's useless "gut feeling" in mafia because what happened in previous games and the situations therein can have no actual direct effect or impact upon whatever the current game is. Any similarity is coincidental and responding to that sort of gut feeling is essentially responding to pure chance. You might as well just flip a coin; you'll be just as successful.
2.) The other thing that "gut feeling" can be is your brain recognizing something that you aren't fully consciously aware of. When this happens, then you have something useful. Put in a little time and you can generally find out what was giving you that "gut feeling" and then voila, you have something substantive you can use to convince people you found scum other than the absurdly useless "my bowels say so".
RR says it is an awful claim post-lynch of Performer and then explains to performer how to improve his play as if performer is town.
RR saying the claim is awful, and the dissonance of that with everything following, really makes it look like he knew Performer was already scum and made an error by including his judgment of Performer's claim with his pretending to treat Performer as unflipped town.
Combined with RR's general play and Maxous's lynch, I feel much more confidant about this than Vedith or Teridax.
Yeah erm... we're not retarded. Maxous is literally the last person a scum us would lynch. There are way higher potential threats who know us and how we play and who we could have killed without drawing any attention whatsoever. There's basically no way that Mastin would ever live past night one with us as scum, for example. You need only look at a quote below to see why. And before you spout off some buzzwords like "WIFOM" or whatever, please just don't. Scum Mastin has a ridiculously stable scum meta in which she is active and trying to run the game. We're not seeing scum Mastin here.
Possibly
third party killer Mastin, but then I would expect us to be dead. That slot is almost certainly town given how many days have passed and how passively Mastin is playing.
On that note: @Mastin - You really need to make your scum game more like your town game, or preferably vice versa. I shouldn't be able to pin you as OTAF on day 2.
On a further note: I'm a professor. I spend the vast majority of my waking time teaching, grading or researching. As you rightly noted, performer was already locked when I made that post. He gave some WiFoM town reads out and otherwise didn't act at all town after he was locked, which was a pretty good indicator. Should we have just added on our vote once he was locked and it became clear he wasn't doing what a townie should do in twilight? That being beside the point ... what on earth does me arguing about the stupidity of "gut" with someone in twilight have to do with anything? It's clearly not related to this specific game and it's clearly me being snarky and telling him to think about my points while he's dead. I look forward to seeing if he has come up with something to support "gut" when the game ends.
I mean ... I get trying to see if a wagon will go, especially since we seem to be a popular counterwagon choice, but that was the best you could find to work with? Me having a discussion about how "gut feeling" is either useless because similar feeling situations from prior games cannot inform the current game or useful because it is alerting you to something you know without fully realizing it and thus anyone who claims to play by "gut" should work on discerning between the two and learning how to follow up on it to see what their brain is trying to get them to notice. I'm a teacher and part of a hydra which has as a primary objective spreading rational thinking and logical play, and you are scum reading us because I'm acting just like I always act?
That's weak ... at best.
In post 860, MattP wrote:I honestly think I got ahead of myself on mastin and started tunneling. I'm taking a step back right now.
You should probably do that with us too. We're objectively terrible at early game. If you still think we're not productive in the mid game, you should lynch us. Right now you would just cost the town our utility because you don't know us or how we operate. That's a fairly bad play, no matter whether you actually legitimately think we're scum or whether you're a scumbutt thinking you can push a wagon on us. Check out our Steven Universe game's hydra PT if you want a little insight into us. We start slow and pick up steam.
A town you probably also wants to see what happens when scum tries to kill us. It should be amusing.
In post 862, Teridax wrote:(Btw, proof I'm not scum. Consider that as scum, I'm actively involved in the politics of my mafia team. Nightkills included. I'm often THE driving force behind them, in fact. The most influential player, the one with the greatest say, almost never outvoted.
I have a policy as scum to off threats, which I define as players, not roles. I flat-out ignore threats of roles when I'm scum to focus on player-killing.
Considering those factors.
I
certainly
could kill ReasonablyRational--ONE head of them would be deadly enough; TWO of them, together, would be an automatic top-choice for nightkill because Cerb and Drixx are both amazing players and they augment each other rather well.
Self meta is pinging me a bit, but since I already said that you don't look like scum you, that's probably paranoia. That said, would you kindly not get us killed before we have a chance to figure anything out and contribute? You might recall we contributed next to nothing the first couple days of SU. I'm sure you recall what came afterward too. Painting a target on us, while flattering, isn't really all that desirable.
In post 895, Cephrir wrote: In post 854, MattP wrote:Second, regardless of my opinion on you I'm just going to pursue something more fruitful.
VOTE: Reasonably Rational
In post 632, Reasonably Rational wrote:That was a pretty awful claim.
While you're busy being bored in the dead thread, you should re-consider what I said about gut. If you play mafia based upon "gut" that you can't back up with something substantive, you are essentially playing a game based upon your bowels as they randomly digest food and produce feces. I mean ... you can disagree all you want, but if "gut feeling" has any meaning, it can only be one of two things, rationally:
1.) You are picking up on a situation being similar enough to a prior bad situation that your brain tells various glands to start releasing chemicals into your system as part of the fight or flight response. That's useless "gut feeling" in mafia because what happened in previous games and the situations therein can have no actual direct effect or impact upon whatever the current game is. Any similarity is coincidental and responding to that sort of gut feeling is essentially responding to pure chance. You might as well just flip a coin; you'll be just as successful.
2.) The other thing that "gut feeling" can be is your brain recognizing something that you aren't fully consciously aware of. When this happens, then you have something useful. Put in a little time and you can generally find out what was giving you that "gut feeling" and then voila, you have something substantive you can use to convince people you found scum other than the absurdly useless "my bowels say so".
RR says it is an awful claim post-lynch of Performer and then explains to performer how to improve his play as if performer is town.
RR saying the claim is awful, and the dissonance of that with everything following, really makes it look like he knew Performer was already scum and made an error by including his judgment of Performer's claim with his pretending to treat Performer as unflipped town.
Combined with RR's general play and Maxous's lynch, I feel much more confidant about this than Vedith or Teridax.
...Huh. Is it just me, or is this a great point?
If you are referring to my thinking on "gut", I'm glad someone finally agrees. Somehow I don't think that's what you meant though. You're a bit too smart to actually believe the BS Matt is selling though. What's the angle? Still having trouble reading us?
In post 923, Cephrir wrote:I've suspected them since the beginning of the game. I think it's a pretty good case, as well, but all it really had to do was prop up my existing suspicion of them to make me want to lynch them more than I want to lynch Vedith.
Did you just call me having a theory discussion in twilight with someone already locked a "pretty good case"? Seriously?
In post 924, MattP wrote:
There's like really so little redeeming about RR's play in general
pedit: yeah exactly
We're objectively bad at early game. Less than 5 minutes looking at our Steven Universe ISO or hydra PT or the non-hydra games of either of us will clearly demonstrate this. The last time I checked, there was a distinct difference between being bad at part of the game and being scum.
Speaking of bad at the game though ... calling people known for having poor early play due to their approach to the game scum for having started out as poorly as every other game is actually pretty objectively bad. Perhaps we can help one another?
In post 930, Heartless wrote:No, I meant it as a straightforward question.
For all the posts they've made this game, they've done remarkably little and
they failed to back the Day 1 scum lynch.
Throwing out a judgment like "better player" has to have some sort of basis and I'm curious about what that is.
Whenever you have time, I'd also like to hear about what your issues with mastin are.
Because we somehow should have known he was scum? Hindsight bias is awful. Using hindsight bias to try and make someone look scummy means you aren't really thinking things through ... or that you have an agenda and are scrambling for reasons to prop it up. You don't strike me as particularly stupid, so I'm going to assume you don't actually believe everyone knew yesterday that the eventual lynch was "the Day 1 scum lynch" when in nearly every large game the day one lynch ends up taking out a townie. That leaves just you starting with a conclusion and scrambling for some reason to justify it.
That's just really bad.
Granted, his entrance to the game was pretty bad, as I think Cerb pointed out, but bad entrance doesn't automatically make someone scum nor does it draw a vote from us. If we voted for everyone who made a bad post in a game, we would have to constantly move our vote around to pretty much everyone.
In short, would you all kindly de-ass your heads and maybe NOT help the scum team?
I mean shit ... it's not like I crumbed our role already or anyth... oh wait.
Love, even when people are being objectively bad,
Drixx
P.S. - Hrm... Vedith gets wagoned, goes silent running, and suddenly there's a counterwagon on us based upon smoke and mirrors? I know at least half of you are smarter than that.
- National fuckwit day...
