Both Majiffy and I are inside of it - this sounds like money to me.
Surreptitious II: Secrets and Misdirection
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Vote: Group B
Both Majiffy and I are inside of it - this sounds like money to me.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Oh, screw the new school voting;
VOTE: Group B
The reason I chose this way to vote is so that voting is much much easier for me to keep track of; the contrast is very easy to see. If there are some circumstance that prevent you from using vote tags, let me know.Last edited by Surreptitious on Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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UNVOTE: Group B
VOTE: Group C
This excites me more, especially with the odd groundswell of support its gotten.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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How do you connect sanity to alignment exactly?In post 311, checkersman7 wrote:See the problem with this is that there are at least 3 confirmed SANE people in group C
Because those players who are sane tend to be sane regardless and vice versa - so I'm pretty sure that you're debating a policy preference with me here, no?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I'd be more fine with that than the sanity argument.In post 314, checkersman7 wrote:You can read it as not comfortable losing my voice in the day 1 lynch with this playerlist, when the voices lost by choosing group B are much easier to just be like 'bye felicia' too.
Nothing that I'm aware of.In post 320, Bulbazak wrote:@Thor: What is up with you this game?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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As long as you ignore the voice part, sure.In post 326, checkersman7 wrote:
They're the same argument lmaoIn post 325, Thor665 wrote:
I'd be more fine with that than the sanity argument.In post 314, checkersman7 wrote:You can read it as not comfortable losing my voice in the day 1 lynch with this playerlist, when the voices lost by choosing group B are much easier to just be like 'bye felicia' too.
Nothing that I'm aware of.In post 320, Bulbazak wrote:@Thor: What is up with you this game?
How am I being sheepy?In post 328, Bulbazak wrote:
You seem to be a lot more sheepy than normal. This concerns me.In post 325, Thor665 wrote:
Nothing that I'm aware of.In post 320, Bulbazak wrote:@Thor: What is up with you this game?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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It's day 1 in a large, anyone advancing any scum read as particularly meaningful is being silly.In post 448, EddieFenix wrote:Thor-Jiffy, who in your group do you think is scum? [/i]
I'd be willing to lynch any of them besides Majiffy, and it's not that I town read him, I just want him to live till the game is small enough we can sort of interact, get paranoid at each other, and set up a 1v1
I would absolutely claim that about B.In post 348, Bulbazak wrote:Are you claiming you had your own reasons to vote your own group and that you weren't following the avalanche of B votes? What about your C vote? That group is starting to get a lot of attention now. Was your vote not influenced by that?
At the point I moved to C it was smaller than B, so if my move was sheep oriented for C it weakens your argument for B to be sheepy.
Your move.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I'll offer a counter bit of research for you - go see how many Larges I choose to *start* in over the past five years and you'll get an answer pretty quickly.In post 984, Ellibereth wrote:
example of you having this philosophy before plzIt's day 1 in a large, anyone advancing any scum read as particularly meaningful is being silly.
I know for a fact I'm on record on site somewhere a few years back in a game advocating just lynching people for a few days to cut down on the noise. But I don't offer the thought a lot because I explicitly avoid the stage as much as possible. Because I have the thought.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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To be specific - start in the game and not replace into the game.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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People are throwing out reads and adjusted reads like Skittles - why do you think it matters?In post 1015, RachMarie wrote:Why are so many people town reading me so early? That is actually making me nervous about my own reads.
Does he not do them as scum?In post 1015, RachMarie wrote:Creature often does lists as town.
Nah, I want you to townread me until the day before lylo, then, at night I want you to figure it out, then I want to kill you that night for epic lulz and Dead QT rage.In post 1047, Majiffy wrote:Oh god you're scum and want me to townread you in endgame aren't you
You got me into a Large at game start - I'm going to kill you regardless of my alignment
I don't even get this, scum are in two sets of 3 that don't know each other, so the idea they're going to bother to influence the Group selection much...meh? I mean, if they're doing it, great, but I'll be fascinated to learn their reasons.In post 1059, InactionDan wrote:This vote count is gold. The group B voters are so town rich I think I've got my daily dose of vitamins from just looking at it. In contrast there are a lot of people voting Group C that are null-scum with a only couple town reads sprinkled in-between. I think that the reason why is that in Group C there's a lot more reads that are all over the place while people are slowly forming a consensus on group B.
The only one that I think there is stark disagreement with among those voting in Group B is LUV (He's scum btw).
And this is why I spend all of day 3 in most games with you battering my head against a wall?In post 1087, RachMarie wrote:It always takes me a while to sort out Thor, though usually I end up town reading him more than scum reading him. I am more familiar with him in newbie games than large games. Last time we were in a game together that was a large theme game, was the 42 player role madness game. He turned out to be scumz and even though I was a known and confirmed Mason, he still did not try to kill me. In fact he did not kill anyone for several nights in a row, which made everyone think that the red scum were all gone.
It was definitely not a play one usually sees from scum, and that is why I always am suspicious of him even if I think he is town.
UNVOTE: Group C
VOTE: Groub B
That is L-1 if the last voter tallied things right, someone should lolhammer.
Or, better yet, demand a claim and then get pissed when someone else lolhamers.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Transcends' vote is pretty meh within the context of why Group B was a better group to select.
Not that I'm sure I'm buying that context, but if he did, then, y'know, suspect that skeeve.
PEdit - I refuse to use a "hurt" tag. I'm a man full grown, we don't admit pain.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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In post 1101, Transcend wrote:Lmao
Well if you think Majiffy is a lousy vote then tell me who you think a better vote is, because he's the only one in that group I remotely suspect right now. I tr everyone else.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Okay, let's break down one of your town reads.
Why do you ton read me?
I haven't done SPIT this game.
So, why townread me?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Yeah...because when I'm town I sob and sit silently in a corner.In post 1106, Transcend wrote:Well people are still readable if they don't do anything to solve the game
Some will argue me but naa
I feel like your entrance and confidence read town and your guns blazin' attitude if you know what I mean.
But at least I'm CONFIDENTLY not doing anything!
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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More that I'm choosing to point out how empty your reads are - but feel free to interpret it any way you like.In post 1108, Transcend wrote:it seems like you don't want me to townread you-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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No it can't.In post 1180, Elliberetta wrote:this game is practically three 5-2 minis and can be treated more of as such.
And even if I were to accept that claim - feel free to explain the scumhunting possible in the group vote section.
Like, explain how scum are motivated and how you can possibly track that at this stage.
I'll wait.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I 100% agree with this.In post 1285, Mikan Tsumiki wrote:Town doesn't have the information to present a read that strong based on those two posts.
That said, town do it all the time.
Have you seriously never seen a town player do this/see it done like half the time by scum players?
That seems unlikely.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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So you're saying that's not a good scumtell but you're focused on pressuring the slot because of it?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Let's have it - I find analysis during that stage pretty laughable as literally the only possible thing a scum could do that a town wouldn't would be to try to kibosh the voting into a group where he has a buddy that he thinks is less likely to be lynched than another, and on Day 1 - I would pay a million internet dollars to *ANYBODY* who accurately called something outside of random chance percentages.In post 1294, Elliberetta wrote:I mean I think you're wrong but if you actually believe that we can have the chat later.
Literally there is no way I can do that search more effectively than you - as both of us would just be scanning ISOS, and since I'm not the one who appears to think that Thor would lie about this belief as scum when he holds the opposite belief as town I think the obligation of the meaningless grunt work falls solely on you, and I'll just mock it if you manage to cobble together anything from itIn post 1294, Elliberetta wrote:I'm busy at a con this weekend and I see that you have joined larges before so it would be VERY helpful if you just linked me 1 or 2 examples of thinking this same thing before ANYWHERE as town.
Honestly I don't even get why you're doing the make busy work here a thing, like, what's the theory scumtell even?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I have said that I remember saying it - hence we currently have the same tracking info.
I'll agree I'm not on my phone, but as I said, I see no reason I should waste the time doing your legwork on a case I know is bollocks anyway.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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It would be like me saying 'Ellie, I can't believe you think that scumhunting on Day 1 in a large is so important - please provide me examples of you explaining, as town, this belief in a Large!"
Yeah, you could know I'm daft.
And you probably could go and search through games and find evidence that fits the need to clear my case.
But why should you, and why would you, since the case is dumb and it would eat up like an hour or so of your time?
It's my dumb case, it's on me to justify it - not on you to disprove it in a vacuum even lacking a scum case.
Pedit - like I said, I'd love to hear it. i think you're fooling yourself.
And good luck getting me lynched, I have people townreading me for basically existing.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Sure - but you'd need data that can be mined for info.In post 1315, Elliberetta wrote:random chance is like 17% accuracy?
i can garuantee i can do better with just data.
Which means you need trackable behavior that town would do more/less than scum and vice versa.
I am suggesting that we don't have the possibility to search the data in a meaningful way since the criteria is so unknown to us as to be mathematically inconsequential.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Okay?
Even if true this hardly disproves my point or stance.
What the hell are we even arguing now?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Last I checked I am available to be lynched.In post 1322, Mikan Tsumiki wrote:I would sheep Elli-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I do think that and expalined why.In post 1320, Elliberetta wrote:if you don't think even a primitive system with human assistance that has enough sample size that tracks word choice, post times, and other concrete shit like that can't do better than random on d1 you're the one fooling yourself lmao
Feel free to describe your criteria - as I've asked.
I would love to be able to mine the group selection voting. I just don't see how.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Interesting straw man - what do you think I'm actually arguing with you?In post 1330, Elliberetta wrote:
i gtgIn post 1327, Thor665 wrote:
I do think that and expalined why.In post 1320, Elliberetta wrote:if you don't think even a primitive system with human assistance that has enough sample size that tracks word choice, post times, and other concrete shit like that can't do better than random on d1 you're the one fooling yourself lmao
Feel free to describe your criteria - as I've asked.
I would love to be able to mine the group selection voting. I just don't see how.
but if this is sometihng ur actually interested in
how many games in a row do i need above random accuracy on d1 in a row for you to admit that there exists a method and that you just don't know it
you can't call sometihng luck forever.
i'm not planning on teaching or sharing in the near future and I gnerrally can make up reasons or find reasons that people will sheep after the fact so.
I'm specifically arguing that there is spit all to get from the group selection phase.
I'm generally arguing that in a large early accuracy is very hard.
I'd love it if you could disprove the first in any way at all.
I suspect it would be easy enough to show a Bell Curve edge for the second, but that won't change my stance nor actually affect anything as I do think scumhunting works, and have never said it doesn't.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Like, pay attention to what I'm saying here sweet cheeks - it will help your claimed randomness average beating.In post 977, Thor665 wrote:It's day 1 in a large, anyone advancing any scum read as particularly meaningful is being silly.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Why can't you discuss theory scum hunting methods in the group selection stage?In post 1345, Elliberetta wrote:yeah im saying they are meaningful
but yeah we can do this after the game when we don't have doubts about each other's alignments.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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In post 1358, Mikan Tsumiki wrote:Ik it's like his lack of understanding of mechanics makes him town even after playing in the first one
Considering your 'whoops, ruling out people as scum together in the same group, silly me!' moment - this thought process makes you my assured desire for death tomorrow.In post 1359, Mikan Tsumiki wrote:Oh wait it does-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Well, for starters - feel free to justify the 'suddenly' because I've been expressing some issues with you for at least a day or two now.
Secondly, I think you proving some self awareness about the idea that setup slips are townish increases the chances of you, as scum, choosing to try a setup slip, and you otherwise have appeared quite comfortable and aware of the setup besides your slip, which made it feel not too legit to me.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Could you at least justify the 'suddenly' part of your complaint for me?In post 1368, Mikan Tsumiki wrote:If you think my attempts at a setup slip are faked then I dunno what to say.
Because that was totally made up and attached flair to your challenge as far as I could tell.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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How was it sudden?In post 1377, Mikan Tsumiki wrote:When have you led a lynch on me when I was actually scum.
pedit: My lack of awareness.
I literally brought it up as an issue the instant you did stuff that made it look suspect.
Prior to that all I could have said was 'hey! Mikan's setup awareness is sloppy and uneven!"
Which would have been meaningless.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I'll also admit I don't get lack of awareness as your issue here.In post 1364, Mikan Tsumiki wrote:"I suddenly scumread Mikan because LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL"-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Okay, you started the conversation, not me.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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That's certainly one possibility.In post 1383, Mikan Tsumiki wrote:I don't.
I am just transparently town, and if people are having a hard time seeing that then they're Smurfing hopeless-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I'm kinda liking both Momo and Eddie after that exchange.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I like that both took strong stances, and were aggressive without going into full bore derptard wail or other lynch antics.In post 1477, EddieFenix wrote:What do you like about it, Thor?
Made it feel like both of you thought you were 100% right but willing to at least hear the other sides' story before making a call.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Being sort of a pool onlooker is not as entertaining as I originally anticipated.
I find the CMM wagon pretty interesting thoughb and wouldn't mind the flip, the way it felt like there was initial resistance and now a sudden blitz onto it feels legit.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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You realize I'm in the group and commenting about someone within the group, right?In post 1701, SnarkySnowman wrote:
scumIn post 1700, Thor665 wrote:Being sort of a pool onlooker is not as entertaining as I originally anticipated.
I find the CMM wagon pretty interesting thoughb and wouldn't mind the flip, the way it felt like there was initial resistance and now a sudden blitz onto it feels legit.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Actually, as far as I can see, no it doesn't, because if you leave a group at a 1/2 town/scum all the scum need to do is to get a goon lynched and they win the game, yeah?In post 1800, Transcend wrote:And another ml anywhere else doesn't?
I'm not sure it's not worth it though, as it's an adventure we do need to do and, hey, better odds - but the theoretical best situation for town is to actually nail scum in a different group and replenish the town inside B and *then* go in with better odds.
The only advantage to going in on B again is to protect town PRs - and that then makes it risky if scum lose a goon from A or C.
Considering the NK, I fail to see much logic with that claim.In post 1811, Creature wrote:I'm like pretty sure the scum on Group B are Majiffy and Thor.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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In what universe do you know anything about my meta exactly?In post 1816, Creature wrote:This is how I expect scum!Thor to play.
Saying you find me scummy - sure, i can buy that because, meh, you don't play well.
But saying you have expectations on my play? I'd like to hear that one justified a little.
I've blatantly been the most townish player in my group, and the only reason I wasn't capped was scum picked up something on Rauth.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Even if you disagree with this I note that you are ducking my question about your claimed ideas of how I play as scum v. town.In post 1827, Creature wrote:
lol what?In post 1826, Thor665 wrote:I've blatantly been the most townish player in my group-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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@Transcend - Yeah, total contradiction - please ignore the dozen or so posts between those statements
@Lil Uzi - to assess if he's scum derping or town derping.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I know he's lying, I'm trying to figure out if it's intentional.In post 1847, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:How is having expectations of your play alignment indicative? Do you believe he’s intentionally lying?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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What's your counter argument exactly - he's town faking/mistaking about his meta awareness?
Yeah, that's possible - but you should assess it to see if it's true.
I've absolutely caught scum lying about meta before, it's a thing.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Yes - and if he's lying it does make him scummy.In post 1851, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I don’t think you know for sure.
He could’ve talked to people who’ve played with you the most on here. He could have studied your previous games.
He could be misinformed. He could also not just have a good understanding of your play style. None of that makes him scummy
So why shouldn't I investigate to figure out which is which exactly?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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What conclusion other than "ypu don't know my meta and I'd like you to explain why you think you do" have I advanced exactly?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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He's absolutely using it as the basis for his push.In post 1853, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:He hasn’t presented why he feels that way or how he perceives your play. I also don’t think he’s using it as the basis for his push.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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There are very few scumtells that are absolute, I agree.In post 1855, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:There’s no way to prove he’s lying though in this scenario.
But I can get more info in order to make an assessment.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Why do you think he said it then?In post 1857, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:You can’t make that claim without any evidence being stated from him.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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He could not know for all you know.In post 1859, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:He could know for all you know.
What are you arguing here even?
As I said - what conclusions did I advance that are bothering you?-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Because you're citing me for "anger" and complaining about "conclusions"
And I'm not angry, nor am I advancing conclusions.
I'm asking questions.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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Like, if I claimed I had perfect meta awareness of you, a player whom I think we've had 3 or so games together - wouldn't you like me to justify that claim a bit?
Or would you just shrug and go 'guess Thor *might* have awareness, let's move on."
Because if you'd do the latter - I have total awareness of Creature's playstyle - and this is a potential scumtell from him and I need to investigate it-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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So, basically you think he's genuine and think he's got a different case on me that he hasn't presented - and so it bothers you that I'm questioning him on these points?In post 1866, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I think he said it because he genuinely believes he has an understanding of how you play as town and feel this isn’t it. There’s nothing wrong about that. Now solely pushing you because of that is and I don’t think that’s mainly why he thinks you’re scum. If it is, I would need him to show some work.
That makes no sense to me.
Why not just let me question him?
Whether or not he's genuine has no bearing on whether or not something is factual.In post 1868, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:You just said you know he’s lying. That is jumping to conclusions.
I *know* he doesn't know my meta - unless I personally have no awareness of my meta.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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- Posts: 33454
- Joined: October 11, 2009
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And my approach was to ask him to back up what he says he knows...so...what's the issue with that?In post 1871, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:My beef Thor is that you think Creature is lying when their is no reason to believe so currently and there isn’t any motivation to do so here. No one is going to solely lynch someone of off meta aloneand if you believe yourself to be the towniest of Group B by far, why would anyone else be worth saving from a scum POV?
I don't understand the bolded.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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If it's misinformation or a misunderstanding, and I'm town (or scum, frankly) - what is the problem with me forcing him to assess the misunderstanding in order to realize he's wrong?
My "conclusion" is one of factual reality.
"It is best for your personal health to drink milk after it curdles."
That is factually wrong, and even if I'm genuine in believing it does *not* mean it's okay to let me keep believing it.
I'm saying that, if Creature is scum, he's not trying to out himself - but that doesn't prevent him from outting himself.-
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Thor665 Papa Smurf
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I don't expect you to play like this as town.In post 1877, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Creature: I don’t expect Thor to play like this as town.
Thor: You don’t know my meta, you’re lying.
It’s a jump that doesn’t make sense.