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Post #42 (isolation #4) » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:30 pm
Postby implosion »
Math, walk me through *exactly* the logic for why post 4 means that Not_Mafia scum -> Magna scum.
Because it's logically equivalent to say that that post means that Magna town -> Not_Mafia town, and if Magna is town then that post shouldn't imply anything about N_M's alignment.
Cult is likely town, and has vote parked chickadee for a while, yet no one has jumped on despite her not really looking especially town. I'm not entirely sure how this plays into this setup with likelihood of scum bussing or not, but I also now quite dislike that she ignored my vote which I think was the kind of vote town will usually be really irritated by.
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Post #124 (isolation #14) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:35 am
Postby implosion »
I am sort of wavering on how much I think I can read math. There is a very good chance I think I can read him better than I actually can.
Mathdino wrote:hey panther can you do me a favour and list the last 5 or so games you replaced into
don't have to link them all, i can do the rest
This feels like a "hey look at me, i'm engaging with people and forming reads" question.
Do you have past history with him that's making you assume he has replaced in to so many games in the past? What are you intending to do that is worth the effort of looking at these games, but not worth the effort of finding them yourself?
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Post #125 (isolation #15) » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:38 am
Postby implosion »
I also feel like we're being really slow to form wagons? Which seems meh. Wagons are good here. The difference between a town lynch and a scum lynch isn't even that high right now and associative tells are possibly valuable. Although possibly less valuable because of that. Yeah, I see what panther is saying with the setup barely feeling like mafia. It kind of feels like another social deception game.
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Post #256 (isolation #18) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:34 pm
Postby implosion »
Fairly tired.
Setup breaking here seems to be a sort of strange beast; our EV is somewhere around 40%, and I doubt it's actually possible to beat that, but what the setup allows us to do is to exploit especially confident reads. So we are literally wagering the entire game on Creature being confscum with this plan. Which seems potentially reasonable. We can sort of do the force-x-to-sacrifice thing with any size of set of people, and detect when scum use their forced no-sacrifice. It's really odd.
There also is a part of me that wants to say fuck it to even lynching scumreads, and just focus on explicitly lynching hard-to-read people regardless of what people think their alignments are, if people can agree on who is difficult to read. I'm theoretically a candidate for that, but if I make it to lylo and am misread as scum then town still wins if I read correctly so it's like.
Idk. This still doesn't really feel like mafia. I don't really feel like doing anything in particular right now because nothing feels like it like, strongly helps us win the game. Like in regular mafia lynching scum is this great thing but in this setup it's just like oh boy we avoided a 20% chance to lose the game great. And even then mislynching and getting a shot off of it isn't necessarily bad bc eliminating scummy town in a way that isn't guaranteed by the sacrifice mechanic is useful. Idk.
All the talk about bussing vs not bussing is really stupid. The more I think about it the more reading into it is the kind of WIFOM that is actually completely indiscernible.
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Post #258 (isolation #19) » Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:37 pm
Postby implosion »
In post 230, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Hey I’m on board with this plan as long as the lynched player is not the one to determine the list.
And yeah although math already mentioned this.
I want to know *exactly* what line of reasoning led to this. Because the lynched player not being the one to determine the list has problems both with the fact that scum will inevitably bias the list, and with the fact that a lynched player is less likely to actually be willing to follow through on a plan if it's not a list they came up with.
And one of my big worries in this is some townie potentially deciding to go yolo for one reason or another after we construct a plan and just feeding us false information that we treat as sacrosanct.
In post 256, implosion wrote:We can sort of do the force-x-to-sacrifice thing with any size of set of people, and detect when scum use their forced no-sacrifice. It's really odd.
I'm fairly certain that doing it with 3 or more people leaves us without any useful information as opposed to doing it with 2 people.
Having more people in the group = lower odds of success, but higher payout.
If we do it with a list of 3 people and none of them die, then that *guarantees* that the majority of those players are scum, and additionally guarantees that either *all* of them are scum, or one is town and scum forced them not to sacrifice.
Which is a lot of information, and more information than we'd get in the 2-player version, but it's more likely that one or two (depending on scum strategy) of the sacrificers will actually be town.
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Post #335 (isolation #22) » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:17 pm
Postby implosion »
It's probably panther scum.
Idk, I just can't care about this game, lynching me seems fine. I'll shoot confscum and demand panther + not_mafia sacrifice tonight, if neither of them dies then lynch the other confscum and force them to sacrifice again. Actually probably just one of them, idc which really. Reads are basically one of them >> mathdino >>>>> cult. Just don't ever lynch/shoot cult and I don't think town can lose. It's just like we've basically already won and I have done literally nothing but incorrectly vote chickadee. This setup is dumb.
