Micro 850: Follow the Leader (Game Over)

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #38 (isolation #0) » Sun Feb 17, 2019 9:30 am

Post by Auro »

I'm not commenting on plans just yet.

Volxen, you should avoid posting analysis right now - you'd only end up telling scum how to play, and I think the reveal should happen lategame, by which point there's a wealth of content.

Townread on Volxen, pretty good at reading him. ;)

Vedith's early posts were troll posts - uncomfortable with his transition to "serious" play, I can roll with this wagon.


VOTE: Vedith
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Post Post #39 (isolation #1) » Sun Feb 17, 2019 9:44 am

Post by Auro »

In post 26, Vedith wrote:VOTE: PenguinPower
Okay, PP actually rolled Scum this game.
Explain.
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Post Post #65 (isolation #2) » Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:30 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 52, CultOfAthena wrote:You should think about why I am so confidently making this statement. Try to examine my logic. You should be able to agree that everyone I excluded is town.
Umm, you should see the same applies to me too.
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Post Post #67 (isolation #3) » Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:33 pm

Post by Auro »

Hint: Look for a chain.
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Post Post #69 (isolation #4) » Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:35 pm

Post by Auro »

Cool, your PoE is valid which means you're probtown.

VOTE: PenguinPower
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Post Post #76 (isolation #5) » Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:50 pm

Post by Auro »

I'll note that I'm very mildly paranoid of CoA because of a specific possibility that CoA should know, and wouldn't be surprised if the opposite held too.

If PP is a mislynch we should use the mechanic as a daycop for TTTTT.
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Post Post #78 (isolation #6) » Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:55 pm

Post by Auro »

Volxen, I may be annoyed at you post game.

Does this tell you anything? :P
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Post Post #80 (isolation #7) » Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:56 pm

Post by Auro »

For not townreading me yet, of course. ;)
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Post Post #82 (isolation #8) » Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:59 pm

Post by Auro »

I think the game's solved - if PP flips town we can't trust the reason we formed the town block in the first place.
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Post Post #94 (isolation #9) » Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:11 pm

Post by Auro »

Nah - I'd say if PP flips town it suggests the gamestate is compromised for town, and our PoE won't be wholly valid.
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Post Post #98 (isolation #10) » Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:19 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 95, CultOfAthena wrote:It suggests that one mistake was made, not that everything is wrong
It's either that a mistake was made or everything's wrong, and the latter is a real possibility considering the confidence levels of people -- all due to one specific thing which you should know -- and I think the latter's more possible.
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Post Post #103 (isolation #11) » Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:42 pm

Post by Auro »

Why do you want him to talk about it?
If you're not able to notice why I'm town, PP and I should be equivalent to you, no? Why not hammer PP?
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Post Post #116 (isolation #12) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:09 pm

Post by Auro »

VOTE: TTTT
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Post Post #123 (isolation #13) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:18 pm

Post by Auro »

I don't see the utility in that.
Also consider he didn't make a single post this entire game.
I'd say hammer
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Post Post #125 (isolation #14) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:19 pm

Post by Auro »

PenguinPower's play suggests the game is more likely than not un-compromised, so I'm pretty sure we're on the right track.

If he flips town tomorrow's gonna be interesting :P
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Post Post #128 (isolation #15) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:23 pm

Post by Auro »

Doesn't matter at the moment. ;)
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Post Post #130 (isolation #16) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:24 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 127, volxen wrote:The only reason not to quickhammer him IMO is if we see value in having him say who he thinks the town leader is.
Volxen, if he DOES get it right, it's either A) him having figured it out or B) Gamestate compromise from long ago.
Do you see us shifting a lynch in either case?
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Post Post #131 (isolation #17) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 7:34 pm

Post by Auro »

Hammer, hammer!
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Post Post #135 (isolation #18) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:28 pm

Post by Auro »

YS isn't locktown, I'll show you why your evidence is false - I think since the only possible case where the game continues implies scum knows the TL's identity *unless* YS made a wrong guess and stuck with it, which ended up making you believe he's locktown but not really.
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Post Post #136 (isolation #19) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:29 pm

Post by Auro »

No; I want YellowSnow to reveal TL.
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Post Post #139 (isolation #20) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:37 pm

Post by Auro »

@Volx: Lol no, there's a very specific possibility you're omitting which I think CoA sees too.
YellowSnow should be the one claiming.
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Post Post #140 (isolation #21) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:41 pm

Post by Auro »

YellowSnow, claim the Town Leader in your next post.

Thanks.
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Post Post #142 (isolation #22) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:46 pm

Post by Auro »

I have you as locktown.
I have CoA as lock-(Knows TL).

YellowSnow correctly identifying implies game ends, but otherwise it means CoA *could* be scum if not. It should imply I could be scum too, from her perspective.
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Post Post #143 (isolation #23) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:47 pm

Post by Auro »

I want him to claim for a very specific reason related to the possibility you may not have seen, which I think can explain his D1 play.
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Post Post #145 (isolation #24) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 10:55 pm

Post by Auro »

Don't post more till YS claims!
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Post Post #148 (isolation #25) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:08 pm

Post by Auro »

Coaching.
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Post Post #152 (isolation #26) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:14 pm

Post by Auro »

If he identifies correctly and the game goes to LyLo, I'll have to put in a lot more effort into solving :P
There are some indicators that show CoA is likely town though. I'd hate to go into LyLo with YS having guessed correctly :$
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Post Post #155 (isolation #27) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:23 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 153, CultOfAthena wrote:I expect to wake up to a victory and heaps of praise for solving the game in my first post and how amazing i am obviously.



only half joking.
I had the same PoE as you N1 (with you in it instead of me), you just happened to post it faster :P Which was actually good.
ALSO you've shown you're competent, so I wager you'd have easily guessed TL as scum also. You don't think so?
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Post Post #156 (isolation #28) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:26 pm

Post by Auro »

Volx, don't keep saying that!!
See, you KNOW that CoA and I already know who the TL.
It's worth taking our chances on YS. Don't give any info that might make him make a better guess in the universe he's scum.
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Post Post #158 (isolation #29) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:35 pm

Post by Auro »

So you're thinking I should lynch CoA and not YS if we make to LyLo? Since she didn't post D1.
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Post Post #160 (isolation #30) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:41 pm

Post by Auro »

Oh if he gets the TL wrong I'll quicklynch him of course. :3
If he gets it right I'm just of the mindset that I'll sit back and evaluate, leaning CoA. But cool.
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Post Post #162 (isolation #31) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:46 pm

Post by Auro »

No. I did a couple that are strongly town indicative too.
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Post Post #164 (isolation #32) » Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:56 pm

Post by Auro »

Dude NO!

Just wait for YS to claim the TL!
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Post Post #167 (isolation #33) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:02 am

Post by Auro »

@Volxen: I understand why you think so. I have a reason to believe it might not be correct. Anyway just wait till YS claims TL.
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Post Post #169 (isolation #34) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:06 am

Post by Auro »

In post 168, CultOfAthena wrote:You're also being silly to think that the game is not currently over.
Murphy's law.
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Post Post #171 (isolation #35) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:09 am

Post by Auro »

Say no more till YS claims please :P
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Post Post #176 (isolation #36) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:07 am

Post by Auro »

TTTT were you scum?
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Post Post #179 (isolation #37) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 4:00 am

Post by Auro »

Yeah, your not posting got you into our PoEs

You're town? :$
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Post Post #180 (isolation #38) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 4:16 am

Post by Auro »

Volxen, do you think CoA could've arrived at the "PoE" without knowledge of the Leader when she made that post?
{PenguinPower, Auro, TTTT} -> One scum buddy, one zero-poster, and guesses that I'm not TL from your post 37. Not a hard PoE to arrive at by any means with no knowledge of the leader.

Then I call her vote out with enough confidence that she realized I made some crumb somewhere; reworks her PoE after a TTTT hammer while stating I'm locktown "without a single doubt in her mind" which is a bit fishy in retrospect.

You're the NK tonight anyway so I'd like your inputs as fast as possible. Also YS *please* reveal the leader in your next post so I know you're town.
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Post Post #182 (isolation #39) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:55 am

Post by Auro »

Woohoo! :D
Easy game.

Volxen, I thought your crumb was obvious xD I was pretty worried the game was compromised.
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Post Post #184 (isolation #40) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:00 am

Post by Auro »

In post 167, Auro wrote:@Volxen: I understand why you think so. I have a reason to believe it might not be correct. Anyway just wait till YS claims TL.
The possibility I was referring to was scum incorrectly assuming Not_Mafia was the town leader (which I believe was likely because of the N1 kill and Vedith's attack on PP); so with some confidence in their guess it makes sense for YS to act as though NM *is* the town leader. The hammer wouldn't be completely dangerous because from his perspective the Vedith wagon grew too fast and "you know why" is a generic bluff worthy of taking.
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Post Post #185 (isolation #41) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:03 am

Post by Auro »

In post 25, TTTT wrote:NM as Leader makes sense with how yellowsnow played
but I'm not sure it works with volxen's 24
;)
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Post Post #187 (isolation #42) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 6:08 am

Post by Auro »

In post 21, volxen wrote:VOTE: TheGoldenParadox

Because
green
is superior to
gold.
@Mafia team:
Find above Volxen's obvcrumb. I chain-townread Volxen a few posts later as an indirect crumb. Vedith
looked
like obvscum so YellowSnow's confidence was probtown. CoA posting a nearly correct PoE first thing D2 making her part of the townblock.

This was a townsided game but if you guys spotted Volx's crumb it would've been a nightmare :P
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Post Post #208 (isolation #43) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:43 pm

Post by Auro »

@Volx: The NM NK was indicative of scum wrongly having guessed the TL (which was why I was adamant about YS claiming).

NM was a bad NK also because there wasn't enough reason to townblock him; same would've applied to CoA but luckily she posted the PoE immediately.
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Post Post #216 (isolation #44) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:24 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 213, CultOfAthena wrote:That plan also doesn't really make a lot of sense.
Would be pretty clever if scum knew the TL though, since killing the TL D1 makes it known information that scum prolly guessed.

One of the reasons I wasn't as paranoid about you after your D2 PoE is that I reasoned you'd never shoot Not_Mafia knowing the TL, since he'd be a PoE mislynch.
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Post Post #219 (isolation #45) » Sat Feb 23, 2019 9:15 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 186, Something_Smart wrote:I suggested in the dead thread running this at 5:2, which might be perfect because after the Vedith mislynch this would have gone into LYLO, and then people's paranoia D2 of someone like CoA or Auro snowing everyone would have been way higher than it was. Another possibility is running it at 8:3, because then scum have more chances to get one of their members into the townblock. (i.e. if they think there's a decent chance X is the leader, they can have one of their members start playing like X is the leader and if they're wrong then it's not the end of the world.)
I'd play 8:3!
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Post Post #222 (isolation #46) » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:19 am

Post by Auro »

@S_S: I didn't want to replace as scum because I felt this was pretty town-sided, haha. Plus I've rolled scum way too many times in my completed games and it's more of a chore at this point :P

Yeah the whole point of this is to differentiate when town is deliberately doing that versus scum normally targeting TL, right? Except for the hammering itself, scum can bluff their way into this. They can avoid the hammer-test strat by simply not hammering ever in D1, they can prolly wait to see other townies react to it and judge.

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