micro 871: mystery box of silver 4 (G O)

[LuckyOtter]

VOTE: apthet Voting town is very anti-town

[LuckyOtter]

Yeah, I'm not putting much stock into anything considering the game is still fresh

Actually, why bother saying this at all?

[LuckyOtter]

Yeah, I'm not putting much stock into anything considering the game is still fresh

Actually, why bother saying this at all?

because assuming 'certain things' could be alignment indicative is a bit...pointless considering the reason I stated above.

OK, sure, but you could have just named the 'certain things' and say that they're not alignment indicative, for the sake of discussion or clarity. Just felt like an unnecessary and somewhat dodgy statement.

Like this: Hey Porkens, those RVS votes are not alignment indicative. Are you trying to pocket me?

p-edit: Cheeky and Porkens, why are you both focusing on the wrong thing?

[LuckyOtter]

@Schadd

Has C&N confirmed?

[LuckyOtter]

Internet went down the second I was going to post with quotes and tags. Grr. Responding quickly on my phone.

Gemini's vote was post 13. There was no wagon on Porkens as Cheeky implies, just one vote. It was RVS and clearly a joke vote. So that business should be the non-issue. Gemini's 'I'm here but have nothing to say' post was the first thing I've seen that merited real follow-up

[LuckyOtter]

VOTE: CheekyTeeky

[LuckyOtter]

Do I get raisons?

Just looks like you're trying too hard to look like town. Your last question/comment to Gemini is really not accomplishing anything.

[LuckyOtter]

re: Cheeky, looks to me like some posting that is meant to look like some kind of sorting but not really accomplishing anything

22 calls apthet's vote bad but doesn't say why and never follows up after ap's response
31 is asking into something that is clearly a joke
47 is continuing to make a mountain out of a page 1 RVS molehill

[LuckyOtter]

47+57 that is.

[LuckyOtter]

31 is asking into something that is clearly a joke

Was it though? It became clear after my responses, but I could have had some actual reason for believing that Porkens is mafia.

In post 14? Highly unlikely.

[LuckyOtter]

@Parachutes, thanks!

Do I get raisons?

Just looks like you're trying too hard to look like town. Your last question/comment to Gemini is really not accomplishing anything.

I'm curious, was there a reason you decided not to mention this alongside your naked vote?

Because in my mind it was fairly obvious given the preceding posts. I'm curious, is there a reason for this question?

Very minor thing I'm reading into: I think this post comes from a place of discomfort.

Nice catch! Looking at it, I agree.

I think the opposite in both instances. You're surface level scum hunting.

I actually agree with this assessment 100%

[LuckyOtter]

{tris, Porkens, Parachutes, LuckyOtter}
{Lost Ghosts, GeminiTwin12, apthet, Chito and Nuko}

I townlean top, null/lean scum bottom.

And damnit if I don't like this reads list (not just because I'm in the townlean ).

Just one thing: Why do you have parachutes in your townlean pile? That doesn't really jibe with 93. Was their response in 95 sufficient?

[LuckyOtter]

Somebody send out a search party for Lost Ghosts. They appear to be lost.

[LuckyOtter]

Still trying to figure out where to move it/hoping LG would come back before I did

Why? Is it making you nervous?... Should I just leave it there maybe?...

..

.

VOTE: apthet Thank you for the scumday wishes, really, but I'm also not liking your Gemini vote. You say that Gemini's post was "pretty bad," (why?) but then immediately hedge this by saying it could be a reactive town. Then you pretty well admit you're reaching in 129. This doesn't sit well--shows a lack of conviction.

I'll agree that a certain amount of reaching is necessary early on, but we're moving beyond that point now. It's not a great excuse.

[LuckyOtter]

That was @cheeky, who asked why I was still voting her

[LuckyOtter]

@apthet: but why did you think Gemini's 67 was "pretty bad"? And,

are

you actually engaging with Gemini to explore the read? I don't see any engagement. I see:

a. "This post is pretty bad: [quote's post]"
b. "It could also come from town, tho"
c. Votes Gemini
d. No further questions for or interaction with Gemini.

[LuckyOtter]

I did vote Cheeky though. Then liked some of her other posts, and very much disliked apthet's posts. So convince me I'm wrong on both counts instead if just saying Cheeky's posts are garbage.

[LuckyOtter]

In posts 109 and 110 I indicate agreement with some of Cheeky's assessments. Note that I'm not necessarily townreading her, though. Post 137 was meant to indicate in a cheeky way (pun intended ty) that it's a little strange she's so concerned about having votes sitting on her. But I'm still trying to figure out her playstyle and I'm getting the sense she might read into a lot of things that I wouldn't. Porkens is in that category right now for me, for example.

It's also not so much that I think Cheeky is more likely town as it is I think apthet is more likely scum.

[LuckyOtter]

What is wrong with Cheeky's 37?

[LuckyOtter]

37 reads like a joke to me and I feel like half of this game so far has been trying to point when ppl are just joking

[LuckyOtter]

So just to be crystal clear, this exchange:

You're trolling. You might be town.

Are you town?

Maybe.

Is meant to be taken seriously?

[LuckyOtter]

I think ppl are allowed to contrast serious with silly but that's been a rough go in this game, lol

Also want your thoughts on apthet

[LuckyOtter]

Lots to catch up on and it's not all going to happen now, but a few things:

1. Why are C&N and tris not voting?

2. I don't like this attempt to force us into a particular direction, abnormal though the interaction may be:

At this point someone in the gemini/chutes/cheeky pair needs to flip because that interaction is not normal at all. Deflecting THIS hard on a VT claim that refuses to contribute even when pushed to L-1 is abnormal.

How certain are you there is scum in this group, and not just, say, sitting on the sidelines watching the theater play out?

3. I'd like an updated read on Gemini from Apthet

4. Porkens, on a quick catch up I'm having a hard time following you. When you're being serious vs. sarcastic; your votes and unvotes. Can you just lay out your reads so I know where your head's at?

I'll be back tonight to do some sorting of my own.

[LuckyOtter]

2. I don't like this attempt to force us into a particular direction, abnormal though the interaction may be:

At this point someone in the gemini/chutes/cheeky pair needs to flip because that interaction is not normal at all. Deflecting THIS hard on a VT claim that refuses to contribute even when pushed to L-1 is abnormal.

How certain are you there is scum in this group, and not just, say, sitting on the sidelines watching the theater play out?

I don't think this is necessarily pushing us in a BAD direction? I mean, I'm not opposed to looking at the other players here but at this point I do think going for the lurkers isn't going to do us any good unless you really think that we are all 5 town here (me, porkens, cheeky, chutes and gemini that is). Do you think it's possible that there's no scums in our group here, or something else? I'd like more of your thoughts about people in and off this group and the general flow, if possible.

I'm fairly convinced that the way people interacted with Gemini is not natural and that there is scum intent, especially when it comes to the deflection out of nowhere. That's why I believe we probably should be looking for a Gemini/Chutes/Cheeky lynch. I liked Gemini's last post, and I think there are cases for her to be scum but I think it's less likely than a few other scenarios. I don't think Urap ever takes a 1v1 this far with me as scum, so I think that despite the weirdness with Gemini he's a townlean.

The weakest link here is anything involving Cheeky and that seems like a fairly obvious scumslot for me so far.

I still need to slog through the last several pages but tvt interactions can get very strange, and I think any combination of {apthet, tris, C&N} is entirely plausible, hence my hesitation limiting the lynch to {nom, porkens, cheeky, parachutes, gemini}.

Catching up on the rest now, but just to clarify, I'm putting {ap, tris, and C&N} tentatively in my scumpile not just because of low activity, but because they've demonstrated a lack of scumhunting within their low activity:

I've explained my thoughts on apthet and they haven't changed. Her response to me wasn't particularly compelling, and why parachutes wants to townread her is unclear to me.

Tris is replacing out, sure, but her earlier posts never evolved beyond RVS mentality even as the game was pretty rapidly exiting it. She unvoted and never used her vote afterward, despite having ample opportunity to do so while still active, which reads highly suspicious.

C&N is sort of in the same category. I can find one post that I liked (106 seemed a genuinely good analytical/hunting approach), but after that, not a great analysis of Tris (109) and a sort list that puts 5 people in the bottom rank (159), which looks a bit like wanting to keep lots of options open without having to make any commitment. It's not as helpful for town. They should be able to start doing some more ranking by now.

[LuckyOtter]

I'm laughing at cheeky's interactions and yours with Gemini. I find them absolutely mind-boggling to be frank with you. That has nothing to do with votes on me.

fair. so then, why are our interactions with gemini "mind boggling" and "deserving of ridicule?"

-urap

Because a conversation that goes like this:
"pls im lost and about to get hammered!!!! good luck town "
"STOP! Let that poor lost soul speak! It's probably the holidays! May I help you get back in this game?"
"huh i don't think so"
"a-ah can I at least ask questions"
"huh sure"

is bound to make me explode of laughter. Like holy shit.

OK, I agree that the situation is weird, but here are the scenarios, unranked:
A. 0 scum in this interaction: Gemini is defeated town, genuinely having a hard time getting into the game and Parachutes and Cheeky genuinely believe this is possible and are trying to give her a chance to get back in.
B. Gem is scum: Gemini is defeated scum, not wanting to cause trouble for her partner by saying any more, and Para/Cheeky same as above.
C. Gem is town, one of Para/Cheeky scum: Gem same as scenario A, but one of Para/Cheeky trying to get off of a townie lynch.
D. Gem is town, both Para/Cheeky scum: Same as above except both scum trying to get off the wagon.
E. Gem is scum, one of Para/Cheeky scum: Early distancing leads to an attempt to avoid having to bus a partner.

I don't find C very likely. I don't think scum abandons a nice wagon like that (Gemini was looking like an easy lynch) to try to pull a townie back in the game. I don't think it gets them enough town cred to make it worth it, especially when either one would be vulnerable to getting lynched instead (Cheeky more than Para). D is even less likely.
Scenario E doesn't make sense to me either, as I don't see scum flipping like that so quickly. If they were going to do a distancing gambit on a player like Gemini who appeared to be imploding, they'd just stick with it.

Which makes B or A most likely scenarios to me, which means it's not likely to me Cheeky or Para are scum. 50/50 shot gem is scum.

Am I missing something?

[LuckyOtter]

Let me be clear: the weirdness of the interaction, from what I'm seeing, comes more from Gemini's responses than anything.

[LuckyOtter]

You also have to consider that Cheeky unvoted you fairly quickly after L-1 and forcing you to claim, which plays a factor in all of this.

What benefit do I get as scum doing this? A little meta of me would show you this is my town play. I like to get two people to L-1 day one especially people who seem to be pushed by scum.

We're in a micro, making people claim anything is quite substantial and the fact you were the one pushing Gem to L-1 then quickly retracted when the claim was out is extremely bad.

What's the scum motivation for retracting the vote, though? That's the part I'm not understanding in your argumentation.

[LuckyOtter]

Pray tell, what happened to the Porkens/Me pair?

That seems to obvious that it's unlikely. More likely one is pocketing the other.

Agreeing with this.

[LuckyOtter]

@ parachutes can you explain in more detail why you think apthet's posts look townie? All you've said is that they don't seem consistent with your scum profile but I don't see further reasoning for that.

Since you're looking for a case against ap, I have a summary of what I didn't like about ap's interactions in 172 that you could respond to. Ap's response to it was very lackluster, imo.

[LuckyOtter]

Let me be clear: the weirdness of the interaction, from what I'm seeing, comes more from Gemini's responses than anything.

Can you explain?

The point of the comment is that I'm townreading Parachutes, wanting to townread Cheeky, and literally 50/50 on you.

You were asked early on in the game to provide your scumreads (by Porkens), you never do, people start voting you (namely Porkens, nom), then you accuse them of not being transparent (which is why they were voting you in the first place).

Then, after several more requests to provide your reads, you still don't, until Parachutes draws them out of you, and even then it takes great effort. That's the weirdness of the interaction to me. Your reluctance despite Para and Cheeky affording you some breathing room (which doesn't seem as weird to me as it does to nom). It doesn't seem like town-motivated behavior, although I've seen defeated townies shut down before so I'm not going to be able to sort you on this interaction alone.

[LuckyOtter]

Sorry, I'm a bit burned out on Mafia and it seems my partner has abandoned me

I've not read everything thoroughly but here's a summary of my thoughts:

I dislike both Porkens and nom push on Gemini. Porkens kept tunnelling without reason, and nom shift from Cheeky was weird. Frankly, I like Gemini's reaction was towny.

The apthet wagon feels out of place for a lurker who isn't active lurking, and I feel like it's a counterwagon to something. Again, with both Porkens and nom on it.

But the thing which I felt was scummiest in the thread was nom constantly hard tunnelling CheekyTeeky.

VOTE: nomnomnom

Really hoping to discuss with Chito some time soon, but it's probably not happening.

-Nuko

1. Can you explain in more detail why you're voting nom over Porkens?
2. Are you townreading ap? If so, why? I don't read their contributions earlier as useful (see my prev. comments), so I would say they were actually active lurking while they were around.
3. Explain your comment "I feel like it's a counterwagon to something." Assuming you think at least one of, if not both nom and Porkens is scum, what are they trying to counter?

[LuckyOtter]

Yeah, I agree that the whole CT, Porkens, and Nom interaction/discussion felt weird, (I'm feeling like that one of them is scum here) as did the swift progression to AP's wagon. 405 of CT still isn't sitting all that well with me but I'll have to file that away for later.

C&N just mentioned something, about feeling like the apthet wagon "feel like it's a counterwagon to something" - Yeah, I can see why you'd think that. @C&N - after Nom expresses that "If I'm actually tunneling on town!cheeky this is a townloss so this is good for none of us." in 412, then CT brings up the vote for Apthet. I could see it as CT trying to move the conversation away from themselves onto someone else.

Yeah Nom. also has the potential to be scum as well, I agree that their tunnels on CT starting strong and fizzling out and then just to along with a lynch from someone they've been hard tunneling and thinking to be scum is suspect and yeah, I read their reasoning behind it. One thing I'm not getting is, in the case of Scum!Nom, why the hard tunnel on potential (for the sake of this thing here) town!Nom (& earlier myself) only to just switch off abruptly? Is Scum!Nom testing the waters for a lynch, seeing what's viable and what's not?

Not addressing Porkens in this post here because I'm trying to sort between Nom and CT for who could be town, and I think regardless Porkens has scum potential.

Well, I didn't see this when I asked C&N about the counterwagon comment but I still want them to answer me when they get to it since I think they're thinking about it in a different way.

Gemini, you mean the hard tunnel on town!Cheeky? And this question you're asking, is it directed to anyone in particular?

[LuckyOtter]

This is where I'm at right now:

{Parachutes}
{Porkens}
{cheeky, nom, gemini}
{tris}
{apthet, C&N}

[LuckyOtter]

Parachutes, if you're so certain nom is scum, can you give your most and least likely partners for them?

[LuckyOtter]

@Mastina, what are your thoughts on Parachutes' towncase on ap in 459?

[LuckyOtter]

@ap I see townreads from you but can you sort the rest between scum and null reads?

[LuckyOtter]

The problem is Mastina feels like they've solved the game and I'm telling you if you blindly follow along with their "reads" and not even question the basis for it, town is going to lose. If you want to lynch me to prove that I'm telling the truth, then by all means go ahead.

This kind of posting is not helpful, and will always ring scummy to me. It's not productive and feels like a very heavy AtE.

What would be helpful is if you can
1. counter particular points brought up by Mastina rather than just making blanket statements trying to discredit her (e.g. "spewing out shit")
2. let us know, at a minimum, who your scumreads are and start pushing them
3. ideally, give us a full reads list.

That way,

if

you end up getting lynched today (which is not a given), and you

are

town, we have more to work with tomorrow. Town lynches happen more often than not D1, and the interactions that seem frustrating or pointless today could be useful tomorrow. Otherwise, scum basically get a freebie and we start from scratch tomorrow. Plus, you win even if you die D1, so do your part.

[LuckyOtter]

As long as you're here, what's your read on Mastina?

I'll be out for the rest of the day and will hopefully be able to post again tonight

[LuckyOtter]

@Nom, @Mastina, anyone else doing it, calling people stupid for not agreeing with you, however obvious you think your points are, is at best unhelpful and at worst making me suspect you're just trying to rile people up to cloud their judgment and/or cause a distraction.

@Mastina 646 is a particularly low blow and I think you should apologize for it.

[LuckyOtter]

For example. The fact that you can spend lots of time on two posts berating people, but not respond to my request for actual information...

@Mastina, what are your thoughts on Parachutes' towncase on ap in 459?

What towncase?

Nothing in there makes apthet even remotely town.

Everything he's saying is indicative of town is indicative of scum; it's literally fucking backwards.

...in the same level of detail is highly troubling.

So will you please explain why his points are backwards?

[LuckyOtter]

@Mastina, what are your thoughts on Parachutes' towncase on ap in 459?

What towncase?

Nothing in there makes apthet even remotely town.

Everything he's saying is indicative of town is indicative of scum

; it's literally fucking backwards.

So will you please explain why his points are backwards?

This isn't helpful.

Spell it out to me like I'm a fucking moron, please.

[LuckyOtter]

Her!

Apologies. I corrected that error in a later post about you

-urap

<3

As for Otter's question about where my null and scumreads are in light of my townreads:

With the current information that I'm working with... I don't know. I'll make a real post at some point in the near future maybe. If I had any solid scumreads I'd be focusing there. I might get enough comfortable townreads at some point where the remaining pool is really narrow. Like I'm a lot more comfortable with Cheeky as well. mastina seems town and that's ridiculously annoying. I think the people I don't have reasons to townread are both hydras and maybe Otter, who I'm more ??? on.

You don't have scumreads? At all?

Good catch.
I also don't like that apthet has acknowledged having too many townreads, yet not doing anything anything about it.

So you're keeping your vote on nom, then?

[LuckyOtter]

OK I misread that, which was about to change my reads. I've been trying to push Mastina and C&N on their reads of each other because I see a decent possibility of them as a scumteam. It was my immediate thought when she entered full blazes against ap, but giving a weirdly wavering read of C&N, and C&N similarly is not giving a solid read of Mastina. But I don't think it's nearly as likely as, say, an ap + gemini team. Until most recently I've been leaning toward an ap+C&N team (if C&N was shading ap but still voting you, I was going to keep suspecting this, but if C&N is actually legit going to vote toward ap then the pairing is unlikely).

So that's where I'm at. I obviously don't like Mastina's approach but I'm having a hard time seeing the long-term scum play out of it. And in the case she's town, sometimes the obvious answer really is the right answer and my hesitation is just an emotional one, not wanting to work with a bully :/

[LuckyOtter]

VOTE: unvote

peace out im lurking the rest of the day

Wherefore?

[LuckyOtter]

I feel... special? I guess it makes sense.

Does that mean you two got to confer with each other? And does that make you two confirmed town now? Trying to figure out the balance here.

I guess that also means that Cheeky isn't likely scum either unless it's just a really bold move to try to look uninformed.

[LuckyOtter]

But neither of you thought to track me considering you both seem to believe that I'm scum?

I would have joined the wagon on Apthet instead of giving reason why they probably town.

You literally had the least chance to make the kill here when you're in the scumteam, terrible track choice.

Yep

[LuckyOtter]

So Mastina what's your take on nom?

[LuckyOtter]

Oh yeah, that definitely crossed my mind when I first read it. It initially felt too good to be true, felt convenient. I wondered if scum would actually just..out themselves like that, yeah, if you're confident/strong player you could pull it off

but I can't get caught up on this type of *if* right now because - as of right now we don't have anyone or anything to refuse what you two have said. So I'll take note of it and try to keep a broader perspective.

I think the bolded is scummy

Can you expand on that thought?

[LuckyOtter]

So here's where I'm at.

I'm not

totally

throwing out the possibility of scum!Mastina in this scenario but I also don't see it likely, and town!Mastina + scum!nom seems nearly impossible. Both scum is even less likely (we were told that there would be a special D1 event and given that there's been no counterclaim to anything they've said, I think we can safely take the scenario at face value).

I think I can rule out scum!Cheeky based on her voting nom right off the bat. That leaves {Gemini, C&N, Parachutes}

In my notes I had Gemini/C&N as an unlikely pairing because they had opportunity to go for the ap kill rather than let suspicion and wagon on gemini grow.

I also had Gemini/Parachutes as unlikely, given their interactions. Parachutes would basically have to be trying multiple times to bus Gem when there were other perfectly viable options.

Need to explore the possibility of Parachutes/C&N but it seems possible. In that scenario Parachutes is stuck at EOD trying to vote alongside his partner or just go for the hammer, which is the obvious better move.

I don't think I'll have time today to reread, but essentially I'm having a hard time seeing gemini as scum for lack of a logical scumbuddy.

[LuckyOtter]

mastina and I were chosen to be docs and protect someone and we both chose me. Mastina can explain her thoughts. Mine were that I'm feeling fairly confident at this point that it's parachutes/C&N, and para seemed to want to go after cheeky for a lynch next. I thought nom would be the second likely lynch target. Seemed between me and Mastina and she wanted to go with me anyway.

[LuckyOtter]

We were called medical interns, and we got to perpetrate a doctor action using the heal function. Mastina won the roll.

[LuckyOtter]

I mean, I think the *why was X paired with Y* discussion is going to get WIFOMy and useless real quick (which is probably the whole point) but I had wondered why I (and not you) was paired with Mastina and can only figure that it has something to do with us both being off the lynch. So with the two PTs that would mean 2 ppl off the wagon in one and 2 ppl on the wagon in the other. But I couldn't say why that would make sense and I don't want to do much more speculating until C&N checks in.

[LuckyOtter]

Literally the only way Mastina is scum is if C&N is also scum and I'm pretty set on C&N scum so there's no way I'm considering a Mastina vote before C&N.

[LuckyOtter]

I'm really curious what actually went down in the nom/C&N PT. Nom, did C&N try to get you to hand over info to chutes as well? You said you were getting bullshitted and I'm wondering if any of it is helpful in sorting chutes/mastina.

Because at this point I see no options other than C&N/Chutes or C&N/Mastina. There is a weird world in which it's nom/chutes but I highly doubt it.

[LuckyOtter]

{C&N/Mastina} means
- Mastina put herself in PTs both nights and pushed me specifically to target both nights, and would have to be for pocketing reasons. Probably because I was suspecting a C&N/Mastina team early on (but then why not just NK me early? Rather take a chance on trying to mold me rather than have people suspect them further after my death?), and because I began to shift to a C&N/Parachutes pairing starting D2.
- C&N was put in a PT to hand over information to...Parachutes? Why?
- Soft distancing D1 and hard distancing D3. Fine.
- Both scum are avoiding placing a vote for like the first 20 pages of the game. Tris was basically absent from the game before getting replaced for a good chunk of that but it seems a little unlikely.

{C&N/Parachutes} means
-They gave up total control of the tracking ability to 2 town. I think if Chutes made the NK this was fairly safe, and I don't think scum would necessarily want to be involved in

every

PT
-They chose both Mastina and nom twice to be involved in PTs, first together, then separate, the goal being to make them look like they're trying to control all the actions.
-They gave up total control of the heal ability to 2 town. If we made the right call, we'd still be in lylo, and since creating the second PT pushes back the nightless day, scum get a kill anyway. So the heal action doesn't actually seem entirely helpful for town. What am I missing here?
-C&N is chosen for the second PT and tries to funnel the information to their partner.

The latter is feeling more plausible but I have to go back and look at VCs some more. This is all I can do tonight.

[LuckyOtter]

Why on earth would C&N have gotten the NK? lol

If it is Mastina/C&N, why would C&N hand over the info to chutes?

[LuckyOtter]

Ok, first, confirming I was not in a PT.

Second, wtf, but also, just to be sure I understand correctly, Nom has to be cleared at this point, because if nom were scum, that means mastina is telling the truth, and both mastina and chutes blocked nom, which is impossible because there was a NK. When I'm back at my computer later I'll sift through this again to make sure that's right, but I think I'm just voting mastina here. I just don't get what she's playing at though

[LuckyOtter]

Rolestopping wouldn't block me, it would block all actions on me. It makes me an ascetic BP for the night.

I am still cleared by the mechanics of this game though, so yeah. Mastina's just trying to gambit and failing at it.

Ok ok.

Right, so you and c&n couldn't have been on the same pt. Unless you made that up, and also the rule about nightless phases. I mean it's a huge stretch and mastina/cn makes more sense to me but I'll still have to think on it.

[LuckyOtter]

Then again it could just very well be a watch PT and the result would be the same and the rolestop PT stuff is just trying to induce me in error.

But I'll pretend it's true for a second. Who do you think is scum here?

I don't know.

Like I said.

I was planning on instavoting Parachutes.

Their play was textbook scumplay.
I don't have a scumspect because my fucking scumspect was the fucking night kill.

If you're town it should be obvious that nom is scum. Otherwise I would have hammered you by now......

[LuckyOtter]

Checking in quickly. I'll be on later tonight to sort through all of this.

Current thought: I just can't see how scum!mastina would bring me and nom to lylo. I explicitly told her in our PT that I was pretty sure it was C&N/chutes. So why would she choose to make a rolestopper PT and potentially mess up a chance to off nom and guide me to a mislynch on chutes? None of this is making any sense.

Also, I'm not seeing the long play, whereas I can potentially see scum!nom crafting a story over some time to get mastina lynched and pocket me.

[LuckyOtter]

There is no guarantee that she made a rolestopper PT.

yeah, derp.

--

Ok for nom to be scum, they'd have to have made up the rule about no 2 scum in PTs together... but how could that

not

be a rule in this setup? Otherwise scum could always take the PT, then claim one or the other got put in a PT with the person they NK'd. It just seems like the kind of mechanic that

has

to be true.

Pretty sure I'm just going to be voting Mastina but there's plenty of time. I still want to figure out why she would have taken us two to lylo. Because the obvious thing to do seems to be take Nom to a watch PT, kill nom, and steer me to a chutes mislynch.

In the present scenario, I guess scum!Mastina just hopes we turn on each other for some reason, even though we've never really scumread each other this whole game?

Like, wtf either way.

[LuckyOtter]

Ok. So yeah I'm not scum slow rolling anyone, lol.

I think I have everything I need to work with, and until I have specific questions for either of you I don't think any more back and forth between you two is going to be helpful.

I really don't often base my play on meta because I know I personally play differently in different games, not in function of my role.

But because mastina is making such a big deal of it I'm going to have to sift through her meta at least some. If there's any evidence of a similar scum game (nom, you alluded that there might), then I largely ignore it.

The mechanics don't prove anything on either side. Mastina I read the bit you super bolded for me and the first point was really what I needed to hear.

You should both know that I'm really turned off by AtE, and I see some from both sides, so if you want me to pay attention to you from this point out let's stick to facts. I'm playing for me to win, and one of you to lose, so I can't be bothered with how annoyed you'll be if I end up voting you.

I'm busy today but tonight should be able to sift through some more. I'll be looking at the whole game and trajectory and see what makes most sense to me. I'm going to do the best I can and I'm really sorry if we lose, I'm sorry to the dead thread if the solution looks obvious to you and you're yelling at me right now, but I'm going to take my time with this.

[LuckyOtter]

I don't think any more back and forth between you two is going to be helpful.
I really don't often base my play on meta because I know I personally play differently in different games, not in function of my role.

Would it help if I did NKA for you and showed you where Porkens and CheekyTeeky both held suspicion?

Go for it.

[LuckyOtter]

Diving into this in the morning, have been busier than expected lately

[LuckyOtter]

Rereading some right now. Happy birthday, gemini, sorry yer dead

[LuckyOtter]

I'm going through and looking at overall trajectories of you two + C&N. Your reads and voting movements. I'm about a third of the way through and just want to lay down some thoughts as I'm going to have to take a break soon.

C&N does some shading on both of your slots that, in either case, attracts some unwarranted attention to you at some inopportune moments. For tris it was very early but pretty quickly backpedaled. C&N is actually more consistently casing LG/Nom. Of course it could be distancing, but distancing is usually coupled with a harder push somewhere else, and I'm not seeing that. In fact, C&N votes nom in 444

just

as Porkens leaves the ap wagon (which was at L-1), putting the VC at 3 for apthet and 2 for nom. The ap lynch is nowhere near guaranteed at this point, so this puts nom in a dangerous position (cheeky could very easily swing back to voting nom at this point). That's a bizarro move for a scumpartner. Obviously there is some hard bussing happening later in this game but

this

doesn't at all feel like the right moment to do it. C&N left a very wide lynch pool open that easily would have let them put a second vote on gemini.

[LuckyOtter]

Yeah, 100% no.If you're honestly banking our town win on you being right on me...we're in trouble.

alarm bells rising again
god fucking damn it

Hey, your alarm bells ring for Gemini and you had apthet as a scumread so maybe you can sheep me when I say we should just lynch apthet because we legitimately just have the game won?

Almost everyone has apthet as a scumread.
Almost everyone has or had Gemini as a scumread.

Those reads aren't wrong.

We can get a perfect town win here as long as not caving in to stupid paranoia about "it couldn't possibly be that easy, right?".
But it legitimately genuinely just is.

*sigh* Life was so much simpler on page 21.

Alternatively, could you ELI5 why I'm so wrong about nom's alignment?

Where would I begin? Nom replaced Lost Ghosts. 28 was an incredibly natural entrance into the game--fluid and organic, with no trace of being scum that are stilted. 145 felt genuine scumhunting matching the type of thought I'd expect ClearlyClarity to have as town. I also have a VERY good idea of what 147 was referring to, which would make me EVEN FURTHER inclined to trust that ClearlyClarity was town, because it's not something I'd expect her to reference if she were scum.

Then there's how this is pretty much just nom's towngame. Compare: this is nom as scum.
This is nom as town.

The difference between the two is night and day, and this is the latter not the former.

There's also where nom is pushing; nom's pushes have been on players that, with the exception of apthet, go against the grain of others. nom as scum kinda went with the flow by and large and avoided confrontration, whereas nom as town lives in those "fuck what the town says, I'm doing my own thing" moments. The reasons, the logic, the everything, comes from a town nom here.

The slot can't get any more town than it has already.

Well this didn't age well. I guess it fits a narrative in which town!Mastina, D4, is legitimately not sure Nom is scum even after getting voted (I mean that's still weird, but it's not impossible for town!Mastina to be so confident in her reads that she choses to believe a wackadoodle scenario like I'm slowrolling her over considering that she totally misread and got played by nom)

[LuckyOtter]

Hey folks, I'm V/LA for a few days, but will try to keep reading in the evenings when I've got time. Sorry to drag this out

[LuckyOtter]

I'm back. Doing some catch-up now

[LuckyOtter]

Right now I'm comfortable with C&N being my vote today.

lol, that's a funny choice. Why C/N?

Put this in the category of things I should have caught and asked about a long time ago, but do you have any recollection why you thought this was a funny choice?

[LuckyOtter]

I'm caught up through D2.

Nom, obviously confirm or refute anything mastina has claimed happened in the N1 PT.

What do you think of a Chito/Nuko track?" (NOTE: This is incredibly scum-indicative because we know for a fact that one of me/nom was a scum tracker; we know for a fact that scum in the internships can make the nightkill; we can then infer that the scum would send the tracker to do the nightkill, i.e., that the person performing the nightkill was either nom or myself. Thus, there was ZERO chance that tracking Chito/Nuko would get a guilty...but what it WOULD have done is

soft-cleared them

, making it LESS LIKELY THEY'D GET LYNCHED. Also even IF Chito/Nuko did the kill...if their scumbuddy got the track result...they could lie, to false-clear C/N.)

Yeah, this crossed my mind as I was rereading, too. I'm actually not sure why scum would chose anyone

but

C&N to "target." It seems like a fairly obvious play now. Like, obviously the tracker PT ends up being worthless as long as scum was willing to sit themselves in it, so scum!Mastina could waste the track any way she wanted, so why waste it soft-clearing a softly-townread townie (and then choose to take that person all the way to endgame) when she could soft-clear her partner instead?

Going to bed now, more tomorrow.

[LuckyOtter]

I do too. But I work best under pressure and looming deadlines, so here we are.

Re: tone. I'm going to be just as skeptical of self-analysis of tone as meta but what I'll say from rereading is that you have both come across as very confident of very incorrect reads (not a dig at whichever of you was just wrong, because obviously I was too), and if I'm trying to tease out who is faking confidence it's honestly not going to get me far. Like, I see what you're saying about nom, but I actually

don't

know that you genuinely look like you believed you were solving the game. You also appear to be rather forced to me at times, just in a different direction than nom. You're obviously very aware of your own meta, and what's to tell me you're not trying out a new approach in this game? It really makes no sense for you to have an obviously identifiable scum vs. town meta anyway, so you might well be trying to play your town meta as scum to change up your resume. And why not do it in this game that you seem particularly excited to be in? I'm not saying I believe this is what's happening, just that I can't take your word for it that this is something you can't or wouldn't fake.

[LuckyOtter]

In fact I think it honestly didn't matter what would have been the LYLO configuration for you, because I am fairly sure you would have done the exact same self-centered defense/non-attack thing either way. This way it would make sense to go for the most logical LYLO that would *justify your self-centered angle* that you pushed ultra hard at the beginning of this LYLO to justify having a hammer today. It makes sense.

I think scum!Mastina acts this way regardless, but I still think she wouldn't have left the configuration the way it is.

Bottom line is that chutes is a terrible NK choice for scum!Mastina. I gave scum!Mastina plenty of reason to bring me to lylo

with chutes

. I told her straight up in our PT that I thought it was going to end up being C&N/chutes. Choosing chutes as the NK only to come in D4 going "omg what is happening I don't even know who to vote for" is such a weird strategy I literally cannot come up with any good reason that she would do it. I really am trying because there are things in the scum!nom scenario that don't entirely make sense (and I'm still working through them), but this is a major roadblock. Maybe she's trying to blow up her meta. Maybe she's trying to take the more difficult path to put a feather in her cap... She might have an ego big enough to want to do that but I honestly think scum!Mastina just takes the most obvious path to victory. Secure me in her pocket and mislynch chutes at endgame. I handed that to her on a platter.

Chutes as the NK makes sense for scum!Nom. Given earlier play, chutes is the first of anyone who would likely turn on nom. I also gave scum!Nom plenty of reason to bring me to lylo. I speculated on a Mastina/C&N team earlier in the game, and I said I found a scum!Nom/town!Mastina scenario nearly impossible (at the time, the reasoning for that was that I had faith town!Mastina wouldn't be so trusting of nom unless absolutely sure there was no chance she was getting played).

scum!nom wouldn't NK Mastina because in this world it's pretty clear D3 they're setting up an attack on her and that effort would be wasted. Now, this scenario leaves me to decide between chutes and Nom, which does still probably lead me to vote chutes, but it's a little more of a crapshoot.

Scum!nom could have NKd me, but chutes is still a problem and there is literally no predicting what Mastina is going to do, so I really doubt scum!Nom leaves their fate to the whims of Mastina and tries to convince chutes to vote Mastina.

Minor note, if we're going to compare "hey wait a minute what's going on here" posts from nom D3 and Mastina D4 I find nom's slightly less convincingly genuine, more likely to be crafted as part of a long-term narrative to get a Mastina mislynch.

There's still the problem of the N3 PT. Why does scum!nom hand over a rolestopper PT to Mastina and chutes? They'd have to be super sure they'd be the target, or maybe me, just so long as chutes wouldn't be protected. And in this world, chutes did almost self-protect, so this is a huge gamble. This is actually the nightmare scenario for scum!Nom because if chutes survives he is confirmed town and Nom has to convince him to vote me or Mastina in order to win. Of course, in this world, for all we know, there's some kind of limitation that forced scum!Nom to set things up this way and just never revealed it to us.

Either way, one of you made a risky move for pretty obviously WIFOM-creating reasons. Nom's play D4 just makes more sense as someone who might capitalize on that WIFOM. You start seeding doubt on Mastina D3, put her in a rolestop PT N3 so that D4 when she reveals her PT you can say "A rolestop PT are you fucking kidding me?" and solidify Mastina as the obvious lynch D4, with me most likely siding with you.

This is where I'm at, but still not rushing anything.

[LuckyOtter]

I guess I should make up my mind today.

[LuckyOtter]

OK problem, Nom. You've been asserting that chutes would have for sure voted Mastina today. It looks more like he'd have gone after me.

Team {Mastina, C+N}

N1, send mastina to go handle the tracker result, and put it onto LO for some reason
N2 send mastina to go handle the doc save rather than the information?
Send C+N to go try and send me the info to implicate me some how

I don't really believe in these choices

well that makes the team LO, C+N

LO, C+N also makes sense to me from another sense

I think scum would be worried about cutting down the number of possible teams they could be a part of

Like, say that mastina is scum. If we lynch mastina today, then C+N is conf!scum fmpov

if nom is scum and we lynch her today, then LO is conf!scum in my eyes.

so it would make sense to me that the two repeats in the pt's were town

[LuckyOtter]

Which makes me think Mastina NKing him is even less likely.

He only ruled you out as scum yesterday because he was taking your word for it that you were telling the truth about the PTs. If he were here, he'd have reconsidered, and if he went back to his original reads, he'd probably have ended up voting you.

[LuckyOtter]

Why would you have NK'd me as scum? I hadn't scumread you all game, but gave my doubts on Mastina and speculated on a Mastina/CN team early on. This is the ideal lylo situation for scum!you.

[LuckyOtter]

Rolestopping wouldn't block me, it would block all actions on me. It makes me an ascetic BP for the night.

I am still cleared by the mechanics of this game though, so yeah. Mastina's just trying to gambit and failing at it.

Ok ok.

Right, so you and c&n couldn't have been on the same pt. Unless you made that up, and also the rule about nightless phases. I mean it's a huge stretch and mastina/cn makes more sense to me but I'll still have to think on it.

C/N and I can't be be scums by the fact we were put in a PT together, yeah.

Honestly, I'm also not liking the fact that you tried to play this as truth.

[LuckyOtter]

What would that roadmap be?

[LuckyOtter]

Sorry I missed your previous post

[LuckyOtter]

Why would you have NK'd me as scum? I hadn't scumread you all game, but gave my doubts on Mastina and speculated on a Mastina/CN team early on. This is the ideal lylo situation for scum!you.

Mastina says scumteam is CN/chutes
Chutes says scumteam is CN/mastina

All I have to do as scum here is do something like make a watch PT with you, nightkill you, and that's all. Easiest win of my life.
That didn't happen so yeah. Illogical game state for me to be in as scum. So occam's razor says I am not scum here.

But then chutes thought through the CN/Mastina scenario and didn't like it, then he said scumteam was CN/me. That's where it left off.

Also, Occam's razor says Mastina would have NK'd you and gotten me to vote chutes, for the easiest win of her life. Occam's razor just isn't helpful here.

[LuckyOtter]

*sigh* Here's a thing. Just playing out a world in which you are town and telling the truth.

My major hangup is Mastina taking you to lylo, but it's not impossible. If chutes was deadset on protecting/watching you (doesn't matter which), either he won the roll, or Mastina just decided she had to follow suit and protect/watch you. She had to make a PT, didn't matter which one she made. Trying to figure out why she'd take chutes in particular.

[LuckyOtter]

If you're telling the truth about the PTs, Mastina had no choice but to make either a rolestop or a watch PT. At this point in the game, they'll essentially do the same thing because let's say you're chosen as a watch target. She's obviously not going to choose to NK you. That would make her potential confscum to chutes.

Well, then they vote each other and it still leaves me to decide which of them is lying, and I probably choose chutes.

[LuckyOtter]

Godfuckingdamnitalltohell

[LuckyOtter]

I have a lot of reason to think you're scum, Nom. I can easily see a world in which you're seeding doubt on Mastina's slot D3, and D4 you paint everything she does as WIFOM. And frankly, she kind of sets herself up for that. Like, she might have just gifted you a win with the way she refused to vote you back and go on about her self meta analysis. And finally, there's a lot in your own tone that makes me feel that you're playing me. It feels a little bit like I beetlejuiced you in here to try to flip the game around. If I lose to that, I guess I'm OK with it. Good job, you played me. I'll give you credit for that. But the real win for you is taking some really dumb risky gambles with putting together the PTs you did. It paid off, and you deserve the win for that I guess.

I'm just banking on you not making two dumb risky gambles, first relinquishing doc PT to me and mastina, then relinquishing a rolestop PT to mastina and chutes. If Mastina is scum, she made a gamble too, but I can see how she'd be forced into it and came out in a suboptimal position. I'm sure she hoped she could NK you, then couldn't, and subsequently had to try to weasel her way into a win, seeing which of us was more likely to turn on the other. When it was obvious she couldn't get you to turn on me, she had to resort to getting me to turn on you.

I'm also basing this on my original read on Mastina/CN. It makes the most sense.

VOTE: Mastina

Either way, GG, really. I went back and forth several times. Sorry for dragging this out.

[LuckyOtter]

Please tell me I'm right

[LuckyOtter]

Goddamnit

[LuckyOtter]

Sorry Mastina, everyone. I hate this.

[LuckyOtter]

Explanations on the PTs now required

[LuckyOtter]

Fuck, is it something like, you weren't allowed to be in all the PTs?

[LuckyOtter]

Yeah I'm gathering the inform one didn't occur. lol

OK, that makes sense. Balls

[LuckyOtter]

Just read the dead thread. I'm heartened that people had faith in me XD

Sorry I fucked it up

[LuckyOtter]

I know it looks like I was very absent and disengaged, but I was really trying to reread carefully and take notes. I'm more of a background player because I know as soon as I start posting my thought process, I'm allowing scum to pick it apart and seed doubt. And that's what happened.

Super well played, though, Nom. I do think it's well deserved.

[LuckyOtter]

Just read the dead thread. I'm heartened that people had faith in me XD

Sorry I fucked it up

Honestly you played good, you almost had me. Thought I would lose this LYLO.
I was so fucking scared the whole time I'm still trembling lol

Again, this is the last time I cause a 1v1 against Mastina. Those walls are scary as hell.

Lol. I appreciate that.

I'd have buckled in that scenario I'm sure. You did well.

[LuckyOtter]

Maf thread was a fun read XD