Micro 629 - The Arena - Game Over
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Damn it Hopkirk the whole point was to get Mapwolf's un-adulterated take ...
Way to screw that up."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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That's not the point. Of course he knew this. But how he would have chosen to respond without this information already presented might have given an insight into his alignment. But it required no-one priming the pump as they say.In post 10, Hopkirk wrote:Mapwolf already knows that information. How could it affect his responses.
Might not amounted to anything. But might have. No way to tell now."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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I’ll be V/LA starting for the weekend starting Friday at 5 but I think there should be sufficient time to get even a cursory read off what little posting we have to make my suggestion to Map.
Based on your later responses – do you think scum would continue to pick randomly so nothing could be read into the Gladiator choice?In post 13, Map Wolf wrote:I would've picked randomly if i was mafia. That is my best guess since they picked it so fast. Another possibility is that they picked me because i haven't gotten as many completed games, so i would be an easy early lynch.
If you say so. Personally I don’t think after you undercut the original line of questioning there would be much fruit to be gained but that’s me.In post 12, Hopkirk wrote:How he responds to me saying that would also be relevant. Pointing it out is very similar to what you're complaining about now."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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MOD – I’ll be V/LA from today at 5pm EDT until Monday morning for my usual weekend family duties.
VOTE: Dunn
His entrance pings me. 41 for example is an odd stance to take. Vedith is correct to not immediately take Map as Town just for his initial response and being selected. And there is some inconsistent logic in his posting .
@Dunn– why do your claim Map is mostly likely Town while suggesting his play could be advantageous to scum.
Personally I like Vedith for Town and am still weighing Map.
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Why do you think it is a viable strategy after reads have been developed? Being in a no Nightkill game means the Mafia will be working extra-hard on Dayplay and just randomly selecting after suspicions and posts to analyze seems pretty foolish to me.In post 29, Map Wolf wrote:It is a possible strategy, but it really depends on which scum we are dealing with, which of course is impossible to tell.
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Yes, and you per-emptively pointing those facts out in an effect coached him to not just drop that response. Do you not see this is why I was not happy in the first place? Yes, there was a possibility if he was scum that he'd have been coached up pre-game but that doesn't mean it absolutely happened.In post 38, Hopkirk wrote:Nobody played with him before is an obvious point. As is that he's new.
I like Map Wolf since he mentioned something (albeit flawed) that i hadn't mentioned when he could easily have just said 'new so easier lynch and nobody's played with me'.
Did you not actively read the rules of this game while it was in Pre-game?In post 57, Hopkirk wrote:Good point, i was overlooking a partner telling him what to say.
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Reading this I did a double take. I didn’t recall you ever being in a completed game with me. So I dived into your thread history to look at your topics and found this.In post 61, Leonshade wrote:For example, the only player I have any kind of meta with in this game is Magna.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=18300
That’s the only game I could find.
1. Did you do pre-game research on player history yourself?
2. What sort of meta would you suggest a Large game that you replaced out of with a whopping 34 posts would indicate?
3. Did you expect I would remember you from said game that ended almost 5 years ago?"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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So this looks like you are wanting a meta-read of MapWolf. In that case did you do a similar read for his completed Scum game?In post 66, Hopkirk wrote:I can't see anywhere where mapwolf has really commented on other players/given reads yet.
This is different to previously (viewtopic.php?p=8025831&user_select%5B%5D=28042#p8025831), see for example page four, post 87. This does feel potentially like a vote is being held to avoid being heavily involved/ happening instead of scumhunting.
Here’s the link –
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=67479
What is your assessment of that game’s play compared to the Newbie you linked?"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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How does him doing pseudo Vote Counts in any way make it look like he is forming reads? In my mind it is the opposite – clearly those PVCs don’t provide content. I also don’t see it as very advantageous for him as Mafia to do what you are claiming he is doing as he’s one of the necks on the line once a target is chosen. If his play at this stage is clearly Pro-Mafia he strongly runs the risk of losing the 1v1 with whoever he chooses.In post 69, Hopkirk wrote:I didn't read the entire newbie game, just his early posts so it's not a fully meta analysis. What i'm saying is that he's doing something (votecounts) which aren't really meaningful but make it look like he's forming reads instead of forming those reads. I know he makes reads as mafia in that game you linked, but its different here where its advantageous not to as mafia (not make enemies when you're 1/2 lynch targets, disassociate from choices, and not needing to fake scumhunt) whereas its not advantageous as town.
I’m not suggesting that Map’s play should not be scrutinized. I think it should. But I think when at least 2 people haven’t even posted yet jumping to “he’s not providing solid reads” is a little premature.
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Please elaborate as I am not seeing Town from Dunn.In post 61, Leonshade wrote:Dunn is reading as town to me."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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The depth of your response is impressive ...In post 73, Dunnstral wrote:Because he is and it is
Despite that I think my vote is well placed."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Back from V/LA
To those not in the know – 1234 is Ircher. I would have thought anyone who bothered to read the Micro Sign-up thread would have seen this page (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=475 ) and known who 1234 is. He can’t have seriously wanted secrecy signing up in that manner.
Map’s posting since being called out as not actually providing content has been interesting. While ostensibly giving content we see posts like 78, 93 and 109 in which he pretty much waffles on any actual reads. Overall Map’s posting looks more interested in appearing Town as opposed to actively scum-hunting (his repeated “Yeah, my posting was sorta scummy” posts are what stick out to me”).
1234 on the other hand doesn’t fare much better. I agree with him from the standpoint that his “supposed” Townslip is absolutely NAI and don’t see any reason to scum-read him for it. He does accelerate his posting and content after the challenge. On the other hand we have posts like 140 which is pure IIoA.
@1234– is Map scum or not?
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Karnos’s 82 feels a little like scum-plaining to me if MapWolf is Town …
@Leon– so your entire reason for selecting 1234 as Gladiate target was to motivate him to do something?
Dunn is still scum."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Why do you consider it a mistake then? I’d like you to explain why you were so set on 1234 pre-Gladiate and right after Map made the vote. What let you to consider him scum in your mind?In post 148, Leonshade wrote:No, I'm simply trying to find the silver lining in what I consider a mistake.
Both lurkers would be good gladiates for D2."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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You don't have a vote 1234. Neither does Map. Part of the set-up.
"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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@karnos– So your stance is that giving any reads helps scum to select the players who best serve as Gladiators? I wonder why you don’t consider that said target would consider the implication of being targeted after giving reads. Why is that?
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If Powerdown gets replaced (which is looking likely) I would hope we would get at least a 24-48 hour extension to get some content from the slot."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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I disagree. In fact the having those reads on record is another scum-hunting tool. For example - say I strongly read Player X (who is not involved in the Current Gladiation) as scum. I am chosen as the next Gladiator. This fact alone provides us with more information about who the scum want dead (and thus are not them). Now there are given WIFOM factors but this set-up lacks a Nightkill so relational tells are even more important.In post 193, karnos wrote:1: No. My stance is that giving reads on players who are not votable (anyone but Map Wolf or 123456789) helps scum select a gladiator without benefiting town, but giving reads on 123456789 or Map Wolf is certainly useful.
2: Are you saying a town player could give fake reads on a player so the gladiator is chosen based on false info? Sure, they could, but it's also likely to confuse the hell out of other town and make the townie in question look very scummy when their inconsistent reads are revealed."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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So is it your stance that having changing reads is scummy? I want to be clear as I have a followup question for you if it is.In post 193, karnos wrote:Sure, they could, but it's also likely to confuse the hell out of other town and make the townie in question look very scummy when their inconsistent reads are revealed."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Do you not read the rules? We no lynch and scum gets to choose a death of their choice. Not very Pro-Town ...In post 199, Vedith wrote:Can we no lynch?"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Actually tunneling a newb with 3 total posts on MS who obviously site flaked. Scum looking for an easy Town mislynch ...In post 198, Leonshade wrote:Dunn's last three posts, all tunneling the lurker."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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It's not sudden - you've had your role PM all game. Vedith is just now twigging to your scumminess.In post 214, Dunnstral wrote:Why am I suddenly scum"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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I’m leaning towards voting MapWolf myself. 1234’s reaction to Frog does feel a little out of proportion and I agree with frog’s response regarding him “death-tunneling”. On the other hand MapWolf looks to basically be actively lurking. He’s basically at L-1 and as Town should be laying down thoughts on the rest of the playerlist. Yet he’s simply popping in to make small comments. Looks like he’s minimizing his footprint which would make sense as possible scum wanting to leave as little trail about who his partner is.
@MapWolf– why are you not giving full reads at this point?
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Frog’s reads post is interesting. Frog please elaborate on the following –
Do you find Dunn’s focus on getting your slot chosen tomorrow to be Town oriented thinking?
What do you think of both Dunn and karnos saying “If I were scum I would do the following”?
Why do you find Map’s “Psuedo-Vote” to be Towny specifically? I can’t see any reason why that specific act isn’t NAI.
You have Vedith and 1234 as partners. Do you believe that Vedith would help make his partner a viable wagon ( 107 ) when he could have pushed with me on Dunn instead?
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If it wasn’t clear from my quick phone post the other day this is a “Why Me, Fry Me” scum post from Dunn. He’s too worried about being called scum by multiple players (myself and Vedith).In post 214, Dunnstral wrote:Why am I suddenly scum
His appeal at 220 is indicative of this.
@Vedith– do you have a history of working together with Dunn in games as Town?
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Yes but that assumes there is no justification for the change. What you are suggesting is not being on record at all which seems mostly motivated to prevent being called out as scum for changing reads IMO.In post 207, karnos wrote:This is mafiascum meta 101, one of the common scumtells is catching someone going from scum reading to town reading someone spontaneously for no reason, or vice-versa."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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It must pain you that you don’t have a Nightkill to make it easy to get rid of pesky Town who suspect you …
Literally this is textbook Cognitive Dissonance at work.In post 236, Dunnstral wrote:Leonshade's changing reads on me doesn't make any sense either and I am more suspicious of him for doing that.
Frog looks better than his predecessor
Leon changing his read on Dunn? Suspicious.
Dunn changing his read on Frog’s slot? I’m guessing it is supposed to be not suspicious."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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So you thought that him lurking through that period was Alignment Indicative. If you truly thought that Frog replacing in and being active doesn’t change that fact that you would think he had a scum role PM.In post 240, Dunnstral wrote:I wanted the lurker lynched because he lurked through the 3 day phase past the point where the gladiate is chosen (and karnos wasn't necessarily suspicious for me at the time)
Don't know how that's "Cognitive Dissonance"
Unless of course you were stating you’d rather Policy someone in which case you choosing to policy the newb flaker seems pretty suspect to me.
It’s Cognitive Dissonance because you are attacking Leon for making a read change that in your words “doesn’t make sense” while making a read change on Frog that doesn’t make sense from a Town perspective.
Of course I'm not worried about convincing you that you have a scum role PM. I just everyone else (except your partner, natch) to see it.
Don’t play stupid. You were pushing for Frog’s slot to be auto-Gladiated Day 2. Don’t pretend you weren’t.In post 239, Dunnstral wrote:Trying to do... what? To who?
Pretty easy to find …In post 239, Dunnstral wrote:Again, when did I say this
In post 41, Dunnstral wrote:If I were mafia I'd have picked myself as the gladiator; go big or go home"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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You are sidelining with this - no-one has ever advocated Town lying about their reads so the whole follow-through you have going here is an exercise in arguing a point not made.In post 242, karnos wrote:"I was LYING about my reads, that is why they changed!"
I suppose that doesn't sound scummy at all to you? I mean, if I was playing with clones of myself, I'd expect myself to understand the town motivation, but there are a lot of players on mafiascum who play more from emotion than logic, and emotions tend to run hot when lying is involved.
Again - the fact that a Town player gives reads of Player X as scum and Player Y as Town and then gets chosen as the Gladiator the next day should instruct them to reconsider those reads before making a Gladiate decision.
All your "I'm not giving reads it helps scum" stance seems to be doing is looking to protect yourself from potential scrutiny down the line about potential read flips on players not Map or 1234."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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What is the point of Town not sharing reads? Town wins Mafia games by sharing information with fellow Town in a clear and straight-forward manner. You've moved the goalposts here from "Scum get a roadmap of who to choose" to "Well, Town players will re-evaluate if chosen Gladiator so why share".In post 246, karnos wrote:You are acting like there is some possible alternative. Someone is going to be picked as a gladiator, that is certain. If that is going to trigger a reevaluation of all of everyone's reads, then what is the point of sharing reads now at all anyway?"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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You case for not sharing reads is predicated on a number of false premises.In post 254, karnos wrote:You are arguing in circles. Scum picks the gladiator after this day ends. They can use the information they have to make that pick. If every townie spilled guts honestly and told scum exactly who they find scummy and who they find townie, scum could easily select the most scum read town player as gladiator as an easy miss lynch.
1. That the most scum read player isn't scum themselves.
2. That players are unable to alter their play to adjust for scum picking a scummy Town player and immediately proceed to mislynch them automatically.
You can post in all the bold, colored, italicized or gussied up font however you want. That doesn't change the fact that the act of scum choosing the Gladiator for the day is more information for Town to analyze in looking for who is scum. Yet you want to make sure Town has the bare minimum of information which is at best an Anti-Town practice."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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@frog– I’d love to see your answers to my questions in 232 please.
@karnos– I’d be very curious why you chose Leon over Dunn.
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So a couple of items from Day 1 that I didn’t get a chance to follow up on then.
I can’t begin to fathom how this is a response that comes from Town.In post 261, karnos wrote:WTF dude. If town followed my advice, that wouldn't be a concern at all because SCUM WOULDN'T KNOW the most scum read player. You are pointing out a flaw in the idea of sharing all reads, not a flaw in my argument. Your argument seems to be 'maybe scum won't use the info to their advantage'. That is a really stupid way to play. If we can prevent scum from having that information at all, that is vastly superior to the idea that we hand them everything on a platter and hope they don't take advantage of it.
My argument is that “scum won’t use info to their advantage”. My argument is that Town NEED information to help get reads and form assessments of alignment. So either you are scum trying to twist things around or your reading comprehension skills are lower than my impression of them was.
You stance is “Never give any reads on non Gladiators because it gives scum more info”. That’s stupid because it absolutely robs Town of any information also. Are you seriously positing that Town can’t determine from how players provide (or in your case, refuse to provide) reads who is scum? If so then you need to go play at EM where it is “Follow the Cop” then.
This is a scummy as fuck also. My argument is in no way what you are describing here.In post 261, karnos wrote:Again, WTF is the goal here? To me this is like arguing that town can win from LYLO, so we might as well just lynch town players on the first few days. Yes, town might be smart enough to pick a scum DESPITE giving scum critical information for zero benefit, that doesn't make it a smart strategy.
And Town freely sharing their reads doesn’t provide Town zero benefits and your peddling of it is either scummy or stupid. I don’t think you are stupid so I’m inclined to think scum."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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VOTE: karnos
Nope. You don't get to have that scummy "Don't share reads" stance from Day 1 and then not be EXPLICITLY CLEAR on your reasoning for what you did."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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So here’s my problem – this is such simplistic logic I don’t believe it is your reasoning.In post 282, karnos wrote:Yesterday he said he would pick me. Amazingly, look who the scum picked: me. Therefore he is scum.
You think that Leon as scum would come right out in thread and give you a road map for hypoTown you to challenge him as scum by claiming you’d make a good Day 2 Gladiate target?
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I disagree in that his voting didn’t provoke a low performing slot to engage. In fact Powerdown pretty clearly had a high percentage chance to flake given his absolute newness. I think Dunn is experienced enough to have recognized that fact. Which is why the pressure on an empty slot reads scummy to me – in a short deadline game like this on it could be an easy Gladiate mislynch.In post 287, frog wrote:I think it can be town oriented thinking, yes. Wanting a slot chosen is not the same as wanting them lynched, and with only seven days in the Day activity is more important than the usual game. What Dunnstral was doing, in my view, was trying to make sure an inactive player started to engage with the game by exerting some pressure (his vote came so close to 'deadline' that I doubt my predecessor was ever in serious danger of being selected). Dunnstral changing his read on my slot I can't view as suspicious, as you claim it to be, because my predecessor only had one post, and that was a prod dodge.
I’m not sure how this translates to Town for you. The reason Map got pressure and eventually lynched was not “handing the control back to Town” it was “handing the control to Town and then doing nothing to proactively find scum”.In post 287, frog wrote:The pseudo-vote struck me as an immediately sensible idea, handing back control to the town. Contrary to what others have expressed I do not think it would have been scummy for Map Wolf to have just decided who to target, nor was it 'safe' in hindsight as that formed part of the reason why he was lynched.
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Elaborate as to why. I don’t see it.In post 290, Vedith wrote:Leon has a greater chacne of flipping scum."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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You do know that Leon doesn't have a vote, right? Just like you?In post 296, karnos wrote:Why are you trying to use reads as a reason to vote me, when you should know that you ABSOLUTELY WITHOUT DOUBT are town as reason enough?
Frankly this sort of posting reads very much like "I need to find ways to make Leon look scummy" nitpicking."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Vedith made his response basically pure smart-ass but this bears follow-up.In post 299, 123456789 wrote:Likely Scum (76%-100% Confidence)
Karnos (-90%) - Still pretty useless; has given reads but seem kinda weak. Possible lynchbait but WIFOM is in play.
Leon (-88%) - The backtrack still looks bad, but since I now know the gladiator was TvT, there is no longer a strong motive for such a flashy move.
You think the scum team went full WIFOM with the Day 2 Gladiator and Gladiate choice?
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Meh. I don’t think you have a direct ESP line to inside karnos’s noggin to know this as fact and disagree but knock yourself out pushing Leon.In post 301, Vedith wrote:Because Karnos actually believes that what he is saying is right, when it's not.
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ITT we learn Dunn has no idea what tunneling actually means.In post 302, Dunnstral wrote:Magna and vedith continue to randomly tunnel me
Pro-Tip : reading you as scum for your play isn’t tunneling.
What do you have to say for the fact that neither of us were chosen Gladiator when you were our number 1 targets going into Night 1?"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Why do you think that was an excellent question?In post 330, karnos wrote:That really is an excellent question.
You’ve already established that you think Leon is scum. And you claim you are Town. Leon’s question ostensibly points out what is a scummy position by Numbers.
Do you see it as viable for Scum 1234 to vote Scum Leon over Town you when he could use his claimed reads as justification to vote you instead?
Then why didn’t you question the following comment that Leon made Day 1?In post 318, karnos wrote:My perspective was based on a flawed understand of the setup. I thought there was a thread-unlocked discussion period after gladiator is chosen, before he picks a target.
He clearly understood the situation and indicated that Dawn portion would not be discussion enabled.In post 61, Leonshade wrote:I am in favor of holding a vote, as this is the only time town will actually have full control over who gets picked"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Everyone not voting karnos (besides Dunn who is probably his partner) note my post in 332 and how karnos dodged the second question in his reply at 335. It is telling of his alignment that he specifically chose to avoid commenting on the fact that Leon had early on Day 1 clearly established that the Dawn period was a closed period since it implicates his backtrack today of his whole Day 1 stance.
@hopkirk– if you are going to not quote but reference posts please use the [ post ]Number [ / post ] feature when doing so. Simply put the post number you want to reference in above and remove the spaces around post and /post. For example – [ post ]336[ /post ] becomes 336. It makes it much easier for other players to follow along with your assessments and logic.
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Scum vote …In post 339, Dunnstral wrote:VOTE: Leonshade
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So you were most certain Leon of all players was scum when you Gladiated but now are ready to start lining up lynches on others if Leon flips Town?In post 348, karnos wrote:Since 123456789 has now responded...
It's an excellent question for... the reason you gave. Leon was pointing out a potentially scum motivated vote from 123456789.
I think it's perfectly viable for scum 123456789 to vote town leon over town me while claiming to see me as the more likely scum, and then to flip things around after leon is lynched with some lame "oh, well we lynched the wrong guy i guess i was right in the first place, lets lynch karnos tomorrow".
Of course, this is a scummy read dependant on leon's flip. If leon is scum, then I would be much less likely to read 123456789 as scum.
The amount of “Not coming from Town” in this response is making the EKG meter spin wildly.
More votes here please."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Nope. I am not going to let this lie fly. Here’s the question you avoided –In post 351, karnos wrote:>how karnos dodged the second question in his reply at
How did I both dodge the question and then respond to it? Or are you calling your non-question statement "You’ve already established that you think Leon is scum. And you claim you are Town. Leon’s question ostensibly points out what is a scummy position by Numbers." A question? It doesn't logically follow that, in a single post, you complain about me dodging a question and then you quote my response to said question- it's like you just want to throw as much BS on the wall as you can to see what sticks, nevermind how flawed it is.
So who is the one misrepresenting again karnos? And why didn’t you answer it?In post 332, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Then why didn’t you question the following comment that Leon made Day 1?In post 318, karnos wrote:My perspective was based on a flawed understand of the setup. I thought there was a thread-unlocked discussion period after gladiator is chosen, before he picks a target.
He clearly understood the situation and indicated that Dawn portion would not be discussion enabled.In post 61, Leonshade wrote:I am in favor of holding a vote, as this is the only time town will actually have full control over who gets picked"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Um whut? I posted originally and you ignored the “last” (or whatever semantics game you want to play) question completely. Then I noted via the Post Number feature that you had dodged it. I didn’t use the quote feature so what are you trying to say? You look like you are spinning for anything you can throw up against the wall to stick to discredit my read on you.In post 353, karnos wrote:Okay. By "second question" you meant third question, and you also mysteriously quoted the rest of the post but you didn't quote the actual question you wanted me to answer, so how exactly was I supposed to know what you meant?
As to the last part – I figured you were able to read the whole post and analyze for yourself what part you didn’t answer instead of having it spoonfed to you. My mistake …
Again, what gibberish is this? Leonshade was the one who originally posted this and it was dead on accurate on like Page 3. Your “disagreement with my assumption” statement means nothing. I see your “I wasn’t reading carefully due to vacation” statement but that doesn’t really hold much water with me. Day 1 you were the only one who was insistent that your method was the correct way and everyone else was stupid. And Leon has specifically pointed out why your method didn't make sense. It never occurred to you that maybe since you were completely swimming upstream against everyone else’s assessment of Pro-Town play that your interpretation was incorrect?In post 353, karnos wrote:I disagree with your assumption. "I am in favor of holding a vote, as this is the only time town will actually have full control over who gets picked" My initial understanding was he was saying the only time town will get control over who is picked is when town holds a vote. Obviously I see the other meaning now that you have pointed it out.
Keep in mind during that time I was on vacation reading the thread on my phone, I didn't have time individually respond to every post.
Frankly your tone both yesterday and today is pretty off to my mind."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Keep in mind that we have basically til mid morning EDT Monday or scum gets a free kill.In post 350, BNL wrote:The deadline is at 15 August 9:15am EDT (UTC-4), or in 2 days, 16 hours, 30 minutes."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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I’m going to ask you to unpack that read then for me because I don’t see it myself.In post 420, frog wrote:I quite like Dunnstral for town.
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So looking through your ISO I see you have expressed as scum lean on Vedith. You don’t seem to have expressed any read on Frog despite a large number of back and forths with him where you disagree with his stance on you.
Am I correct that you don’t have a Frog-scum read or your Frog scum read is substantially smaller than your Vedith scum read?
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This is scum grandstanding right here.In post 423, Dunnstral wrote:I do have actual thoughts, by the way
Is frog your partner?"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Mod I'll be V/LA from now until Tuesday morning
Via phone over the weekend I'll be re-reading. My gut says that I'll be voting Frog simply because he's a dead Null and his response on Dunn is lots of words that look pretty but mean zilch. But I want a full review before that happens."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Now that I have some time I’ll lay out my Dunn case in full. Frankly there hasn’t been a huge need because shock of shocks – those players who suspect him haven’t been chosen as Gladiator.In post 437, frog wrote:If there is so little there, why not try your hand at deconstructing it? You may call it what you want, but the fact remains that there is more content there than has been produced by those who are so sure that Dunnstral is scum.
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So why Dunn is scum:
First of all the general tone of his ISO is that of scum cruising by … there isn’t any significant attempts to scum-hunt and lots of filler content. Look through his ISO yourself and decide if you disagree with my assessment.
My analysis of Dunn’s Day 1 play is exactly the opposite of Frog’s – it is very much busywork and taking safe stances as opposed to looking to sort people.
Exhibit A – 41 in which he is quick to call MapWolf Town when frankly I think making a solid read at that stage of the game is near impossible from MapWolf’s ISO to that stage. And there is no depth at all to support why … just MapWolf is “Townie and more likely to be Town”. I think this is further signified by his response to me at 73 when I asked him about the apparent disconnect between his MapWolf read and a statement he made that indicated MapWolf’s play would benefit scum. He doesn’t explain anything about why he draws a Town conclusion despite acknowledging that MapWolf’s play could come from scum. He just flatly states “He is and it is”. He knows that MapWolf is going to flip Town. This also is to me apparent from his early push on Vedith for suspecting Map. He’s making pre-flip based attack very early which Town shouldn’t so easily make.
Exhibit B – Empty questions that he never follows up on. Supposedly he suspects Vedith very early on. And we get the following from Dunn –
Which Vedith responds to at 48 with “I’m waiting for Leon to come back”. Does Dunn ever follow up on this line of inquiry? Nope. Even after Leon returns to the thread there is nothing in Vedith’s ISO Day 1 or beyond that says that question was anything other than just fluff.In post 47, Dunnstral wrote:So do you suspect Leon?
Exihibit C – His newb lurker attack on Frog’s slot (starting at 103). It isn’t scum-hunting as he admits it is pure policy (178) and the second Frog replaces in he 180s his stance (236). In fact the manner in which he retracts it is highly suspect –
This is the quintessential empty statement – of course Frog looks better than his predecessor. Anyone does because his predecessor flaked out with zero content. Dunn again has no real reasoning to support his stances.In post 236, Dunnstral wrote:Frog looks better than his predecessor
In fact reading through his Day 1 I see many points I made that show Frog’s stance of “No content made on why Dunn is scum” is false.
After Day 1 his ISO is filled with similar posts that don’t highlight a Town frame of mind. His attempts to suggest that anyone scum reading isn’t valid (302 is an example … both Vedith and I are just “randomly tunneling” him). He’s more worried about being perceived as Town as opposed to finding scum. Furthermore his stance on the Leon versus karnos Day shows the same lack of depth (aka superficial reads driven by knowing the alignment of those reads he is presenting) as shown at 346. 379 is another example – it is his first actual commitment to a scum read (note before this point all his suspicions were couched in “Player X is more likely to flip scum than Player Y) and even then he drops the softener “might” into play.
401 is yet another example of saying with no depth – no support for why Leon’s game has evolved in a scum manner just a simple statement. And then another self-preservation statement.
Today has been filled with fluff (419, 440). And this is not Town posting –
Town would just share them. Dunn treats it as if he should just be able to sit idly by and let everyone ask him for his insight. And said thoughts? In 432 he again gives an unsupported read on Leon. Also he basically fence-sits Vedith versus Frog. Look at that post again and read it. No reason why Vedith is scum other than scum-reading Dunn and looking to flip to scum-reading Frog (who after the Powerdown policy talk) has disappeared from his ISO.In post 423, Dunnstral wrote:I do have actual thoughts, by the way
Frankly I see the Frog suspicion as light distancing. Frog has refused to acknowledge any of the copious posts pointing out Dunn’s scumminess."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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VOTE: Frog
Despite Vedith’s less than stellar contributions to defending himself as Town I think he’s Town. At least partially this is driven by our shared read on Dunn.
I can see the Frog / Dunn interactions as partners – Dunn’s early PL push on Powerdown could certainly be a frustrated partner willing to bus given the flaking which turned around for little reason once someone active inhabited the slot. I’ve already pointed out what I see as distancing from Dunn today.
Frog’s solid Town read on Dunn also doesn’t make much sense to me. If I have time today I’ll go through Frogs’ ISO and point out things I think are worth considering."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Can you clarify what the hell this means?In post 455, Hopkirk wrote:Random thought: A mafia v mafia day 1 if neither can be lynched strikes me as a good way of disassociating from a partner without risk.
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Why wouldn’t he have simply hammered you then instead of re-thinking and going with me on Frog? I mean realistically I was the only one putting up any resistance to you getting lynched. I see your scenario where this is all a set-up between Leon and Dunn but I’m not sure I see that.In post 456, Vedith wrote:Leonshade is Dunn's partner.
What are your thoughts on 1234?"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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On V/LA but I'd like you to elaborate on this with specifics please.In post 482, Accountant wrote:Didn't have time to read & analyze game, but VCA points to frog.
- Along with Leonshade I'd like to see where your reads are now.
@Frog"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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VOTE: Frog
While pretty much all Accountant’s posts are basically fail my feelings from yesterday haven’t gone away.
And the choice of Accountant pretty much means that Dunn is Frog's partner. It was a forgone conclusion that either me or Leonshade was gunning for him and have been for days. Hopkirk maybe, maybe not but being so widely Town viewed if he chose Frog or Dunn as his target sealed a scum lynch. So it makes sense for a Frog / Dunn team to roll the dice on an unknown ... the worst case was not any worse than any other choices and best-case they get another TvT Gladiate.
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In post 484, Dunnstral wrote:if both of the people in the arena were town, I think the game would have ended by now
VOTE: frog
should have known you were trying something yesterday buddying up to me but Vedith's tunnel was too bad
I’m leaning towards an aborted bus right here. The logic is completely borked in the first post as others have pointed out. The quick unvote after this is pointed out doesn’t reduce my thoughts from yesterday – Frog and Dunn very likely partners. Otherwise Dunn wouldn't have mislynched Town yesterday if he was so sold on Frog as scum.In post 488, Dunnstral wrote:UNVOTE:
If we nolynch, mafia chooses a kill? and we're at 5 players alive
Also the “Hey let’s No Lynch so scum can kill the most obv-Town player” based as if this was a normal game is pretty damn scummy.
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Funny how your reads haven’t developed at all since Day 1 effectively.In post 487, frog wrote:I still think Accountant's slot is scum. My opinions on 123456789 have already been given, but you can add to that that 'VCA' is a terrible reason for choosing anybody to be the target. Most likely second scum is MagnaofIllusion. A large part of this is PoE, since I am fairly confident that all of HopKirk, Leonshade, and Dunnstral are town.
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Why was MapWolf not an “easy wagon”?In post 501, Accountant wrote:Because numbers looked terrible early game and I know karnos"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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No he wasn't. Frankly if I wasn't so solid on Frog as scum I'd be voting you because not a single one of your posts today has made on iota of sense.In post 510, Accountant wrote:Because Map was obvtown"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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I’ll answer only to say he has no completed games with me (unless on an alt, in which case dismiss this comment).In post 519, Leonshade wrote:@Hopkirk: Do you have finished games with Dunn & with Magna? I'd also like to know your read on Magna."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Look more scum posting ..In post 534, Dunnstral wrote:Pretty sure magna is scum or terrible
Also the reasoning behind nolynching is that if both are town we can get one of them out of the lynch and get a new person tomorrow
If magne were town, he would have been picked for the lynch. I don't think frog is magna's partner
Literally the second line makes absolutely no sense from a Town perspective.
Dunn is saying "Let's No Lynch and let scum kill the Town player the want dead the most so we can save one of todays' Gladiators". Not a bit of Town sense in that.
And the last line also makes no sense since the obvious reason I'm NOT picked for the lynch is to protect my obvious target - Dunn.
Hey Dunn ... why don't you hammer your partner frog?"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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If you thought that plan was so Townie why didn't you suggest it when there were other lynches you thought were TvT?In post 536, Dunnstral wrote:Stop playing dumb.
I think the following teams are likely:
Magna-Leonshade
Magna-Hopkirk
Which mean it would be both town in the gladiate. Meaning lynching one makes us lose
The answer is of course because you are afraid of losing your partner today and are flailing around for some way to extricate Frog from the inevitable rope."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Um, whut?In post 541, Accountant wrote:Frog dunn makes sense if we think of that as an aborted bud
Esp since town dumn would know for sure frog is town"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Point 1 - it's my theory since I was team reading them yesterday.In post 546, Accountant wrote:Frog dunn makes sense according to the aborted bus theory postulated by someone last page
Town dunn would know for sure frog is scum
Why would Town Dunn know for sure Frog is scum again?"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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This attempt to understand your thought process is probably at an end for me.In post 548, Accountant wrote:Because dunn is a good player
Thanks for the back and forth at any rate."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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Well I hadn't even gotten on to explain my thoughts even though I think it was pretty clear why I chose Dunn.
I briefly toyed with wondering why now of all times I got chosen if he is scum but decided it certainly could be a WIFOM mindfuck attempt.
Glad to see we are just waiting for the Mod now."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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You've spent days saying I was scum with Leonhardt so I'm just going to assume this is GG-trolling on your part since you have not said a single thing about Accountant being scum prior to this ...In post 588, Dunnstral wrote:Last mafia is accountant"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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@Leon- when you get to the thread please detail your decision on Accountant.
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Can you detail your thinking on this for me? That would be helpful.In post 595, Accountant wrote:Last maf is hop"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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So here is where I stand right now …
I actually am in agreement that Hopkirk stands the best chance of being scum. I wanted to specifically see what Accountant brought to the table (which wasn’t much but I can see the outline and it matches well with what I am seeing) and Hopkirk’s response.
After Dunn flipped Town I started looking through the vote-counts and this particular series of posts is what got me thinking Hopkirk is scum …
Start with the following vote-count from Day 3 –
Early day 3 in the Vedith (Town) versus Frog Gladiate day. Accountant’s slot has already voted for Vedith. Hopkirk posts 429 which effectively says “I’m voting for Vedith after I ISO him”.In post 425, BNL wrote:With 5 votes in play it takes 3 to lynch.
The deadline is at 25 August 9:00am EDT (UTC-4), or in (expired on 2016-08-25 09:00:00).
Mod notes:
BulletNLynchproof is back from V/LA, and is back to being the main moderator.
Dunn (Town) then votes to get Vedith to L-1 at 432. Hopkirk states “Intent to hammer” at 438. This struck me on re-read because it feels like he’s looking for approval to hammer the Town up against Mafia Frog. So far there has been little resistence to Vedith getting lynched. I can see scum Hopkirk certainly thinking “I get Town sign-off on the hammer and it can’t be used against me later”.
Hopkirk re-iterates his Frog Town read at 443. I make my case for Frog as scum at 450 and vote him. Leonshade votes frog at 454 which puts the wagons at 2-2 with Hopkirk the final vote.
Hopkirk’s ISO of Frog is all sorts of fence-sitty at 455. He leaves the door open to read frog as scum in the future, saying that nothing in his ISO says Town or Scum. And his ISO read of Vedith at 457 strikes me as arranging mislynches given his conclusion that “one is definitely Mafia” from Vedith / Dunn (and we now know both are Town). He then hammers at 471 after some discussion is had by the rest of us about the lynch of the day.
I think Hopkirk got some strong Town reads early and has been cruising on them ever since."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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My dilemma is that Hopkirk and I have to agree on a lynch today for it to happen. If he’s scum he’s going to want the player most likely to favor him in LYLO kept alive. And the vote for accountant with absolutely nothing behind it other than an ordered reads list combined with Leon’s strong Townread on Hopkirk all game long fits that fact pattern.
@Hopkirk– why don’t you explain why Accountant is the obvious choice as scum for you in detail.
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What made you panic pick Accountant? I ask because I know you have expressed a wariness of me as scum and in 516 you already more or less explicitly ruled out an Accountant / Frog pairing.In post 597, Leonshade wrote:Thought about Hop switch to frog looks like a bus, panic picked Accountant though"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
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You miss the point then – it only struck me on re-read after this post yesterday …In post 603, Hopkirk wrote:If you look through old games you'll see i always (or virtually always) give intent to hammer and wait at least a few hours before hammering. This applies as town or scum so isn't related to alignment.
I mean you were very, very careful to about presenting yourself as being reasonable when you were set to hammer Town with Frog as the other choice.
Yet yesterday you hammered Dunn without either Leon or me checking in yet or even with Dunn able to post his last thoughts. Granted I thought he was scum yesterday too but the difference between Day 3 and yesterday is that frog is dead and so the last scum has needs multiple mislynches to win and has zero room for error.
This dichotomy in how you handled those votes reads as scum-motivated to me."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
Pretty much Geriatric game restricted at this point ... unless there are players I REALLY want to play with.-
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MagnaofIllusion has been killed Night 1
- has been killed Night 1
- has been killed Night 1
- Posts: 13964
- Joined: February 9, 2010
- Location: Assimilating the world ...
MOD - I'll be V/LA from basically now until Monday morning for regular weekend duties.
I still want to see Hopkirk's case on Accountant and I'd like to see more input from Leonshade."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
Pretty much Geriatric game restricted at this point ... unless there are players I REALLY want to play with.-
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MagnaofIllusion has been killed Night 1
- has been killed Night 1
- has been killed Night 1
- Posts: 13964
- Joined: February 9, 2010
- Location: Assimilating the world ...
Because Accountant is supposedly scum to you and I wanted to see how you would approach building a case. I'm phone posting so not comment directly other than to sayIn post 610, Hopkirk wrote:@Magna: Why do you want to so me make a case on accountant but not accountant make one on me?
That post looks like you found a reason to scum-read every post both members of the slot made which is a sign of scum fabricating as opposed to Town looking for signs of scum. Will have to read in depth when I can actually computer.
Also - the "Oh I'm unvoting so Magna can't hammer" is fairly scummy since you opened the day with a naked vote and now are pretending I didn't have tons of opportunity to hammer him if I was scum looking for a mislynch."I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"
Pretty much Geriatric game restricted at this point ... unless there are players I REALLY want to play with.