Micro 745: Beyond Death [Endgame]

[Sobolev Space]

hiya everyone

so I've got one tr and some town leans

VOTE: Cheeky

why aren't you voting, cabd?

also as a heads up to everyone I'm pretty busy this quarter and won't have as much time as I usually do for mafia. I should be checking in at least once a day but if that becomes impossible I'll replace out.

[Sobolev Space]

now i've got two trs and one of them isn't cabd

why aren't you voting, cabd?

A vote is effectively pointing a loaded gun at somebody, in my eyes. Why would I shoot from the hip before I fully read the game?

people don't die in real life when they die in the game so i think you'll be safe

[Sobolev Space]

no i think you put too much weight on the vote but that is likely a playstyle thing

i do think that your not voting isn't especially pro-town, however

[Sobolev Space]

no i think you put too much weight on the vote but that is likely a playstyle thing

i do think that your not voting isn't especially pro-town, however

You likely won't see a vote from me until i am confident in my entire reads list, not just a singular read. If this was a traditional game, the list would even contain the phrase "sync achieved"

any reads of note so far?

[Sobolev Space]

The setup isn't anything too complex, I will note we will NOT get flips night one; and no-lynching in this setup is almost always the wrong move.


The two "self-docs" here should be treated somewhat like you would bulletproofs in the matrix 6 setup, with the note that them claiming early like the matrix 6 BP strat is a bad idea.

wait who are the two "self-docs"? there's only one town PR, no?

[Sobolev Space]

cheeky why did you abandon your push on cabd when he responded to at most one of the three points you raised against him?

[Sobolev Space]

so by my count cheeky:

First off he enters without providing any indication of early reads, when there's only one page to go off, so it wouldn't be hard to skim and then enter announcing any thoughts to help progress the game.

this went unresponded to by cabd unless u count 60 as a response which i'm not inclined to because that was talking about rvs voting in specific, not outing reads.

Second, his "loaded gun" response to being questionned about not RVS voting, feels dramatic and out of place, like the emphasis is on being reasonable about voting, but we're not out of the RVS woods yet.

this was responded to in 60

Third, he comments on his own replacement slot by saying that rc doesn't like town, thats probably why he replaced, but that the point is also null. I'm not sure what the point of this comment is, if not to subtly put in our minds that his slot is town.

this went unresponded to by cabd.

am i missing something? this is what i meant when i said he responded to at most one of your three points

so why did your mind change on cabd between 59 and 63? do you no longer believe the first and third points you made have any merit? if so why?

[Sobolev Space]

see ya on the other side cabd

[Sobolev Space]

okay but you still didn't really answer my question which was

did you still believe those two unanswered points were valid when you made 63?

Like i'm asking is it the case that:
a) you didn't believe those points were valid when making 59 and thus also didn't believe them when making 63 even though nobody else discussed them;
b) you did believe them when making 59 but changed your mind before making 63 for some reason; or
c) you did believe them when making 59 and still believed them when making 63 but other things cabd did overrode your otherwise valid reasons to scumread him?

if its c - which i suspect it is - what did cabd do in his responses to make you tr him? was it solely the fact that he didn't rebut your case point by point?

[Sobolev Space]

see ya on the other side cabd

Sure. Syryana sends his regards.

lol ripppp

[Sobolev Space]

okay thanks i was just trying to be clear. i thought your progression from 59 to 63 looked odd but couldn't sort it so i was just trying to get to the bottom of what u were thinking

still think 66 was unnecessarily abrasive but we can table this discussion for now

[Sobolev Space]

hmm.. i hadn't noticed that.

[Sobolev Space]

so this is what i mean when i say that pressure on cabd feels artificial. i feel like i have a good enough idea of scumhunting (in general, if not for cheeky's playstyle in particular) to say that the reasoning here feels forced. i'm not sure why a scum cheeky would specifically want a cabd wagon so i don't know if this is necessarily indicitive of scum but i feel like it's still strange enough to warrant pointing out.

why do you think scum!cheeky would drum up this big phony post about how cabd could be scum only to backtrack on it 4 posts later? it didn't seem to me like cheeky's intent there was to start a wagon

[Sobolev Space]

rude!! we're still sort of in rvs so i don't feel bad about this!
VOTE: micc

bad vote

[Sobolev Space]

now i've got two trs and one of them isn't cabd

This seems to imply you got a town read on Hopkirk from post 38. Can you explain that one please?

yea i thought that his questions in 38 meshed a lot with what i was thinking when i read those posts which indicates a towny thought process. it wasn't a super strong read at the time but its been strengthened by his recent posts as well

ftr my other tr at the time was chip but when i entered the game the wagon on him was pretty much the only thing happening and i wanted to see what happened with it

[Sobolev Space]

I'm afraid the random vote - reaction test - serious vote just seems scrambling almost

my random vote on you was actually random. when i said it was serious it was just a reaction test, but now it's seriously serious (seriously!).

that was my initial impression as well kawso but based on the phrasing here:

micc, it was a mostly random vote but now it's a serious one.

what do you think about that?

i'm actually inclined to believe the north originally intended it as a reaction test

[Sobolev Space]

cheeky why do u think hopkirk is scum i like him

[Sobolev Space]

VOTE: kawso

[Sobolev Space]

what do you think about the pressure on you from kawso + hopkirk + cheeky, north?

[Sobolev Space]

so setup wise one of the things that i noticed is that even if the firefighter stops a priming it'll be impossible for them to know who they stopped unless scum ignites on n2. with this in mind do you think it would even be advisable for the firefighter to claim who they protected if a kill is blocked or no?

[Sobolev Space]

psa: talking about ongoing games is forbidden even if you're already dead in them

[Sobolev Space]

has your opinion on chip butty changed as his wagon fell apart? the lack of traction for the wagon meant there was less pressure than I would have liked. I'm left feeling like I don't have a read on him because of it.

eh he's still a tr. i thought his response to his wagon in 56 was fairly towny. it was a lot like how i reacted to being wagoned early in my first newbie game although given his join date i'm a little less inclined to tr it than i would if he was a newbie.

i wish he would contribute more but i'm most interested in hearing btd's thoughts rn

[Sobolev Space]

resignation to being lynched is more townie amongst newbies than not imo. especially trying to give advice for where to look for scum post-flip since scum doesn't really care what town does after they're lynched - they just want to stay alive - while town does.

for example in my last game we wagoned scum early d1 and they responded by being much colder than they were early game

Spoiler: quotes

You have misrepresented my conclusion and are continuing discussion of game mechanics after others have stated that's a bad idea. I find both of those approaches questionable at best.

You went from discussing mechanics yourself to saying that approach is questionable pretty quickly. What specifically changed your mind?

Sobolev and kittycap's exchange on page 2.

I gave a logical progression from point to point to conclusion, but you stripped out the qualifier in your recap. When I called you on the change you said you hadn't added anything to my conclusion, but in point of fact you subtracted from it. Why?

That is what I did here, but Green skipped my qualifiers and presented it as me making a black and white statement. I appear to being getting heat for what he said rather than what I actually wrote, which is super confusing to me.

meanwhile the newbie townie that we wagoned d1 seemed like they kinda gave up and resigned themselves to being lynched eventually and expressed similar frustration to chip as to the case on them:

Spoiler: quotes

If you guys are set on lynching me that's fine. if there's any questions anybody wants to ask before I'm hammered, feel free.

I was surprised to see him at the top of her town reads.

why not ask her about it? Does this affect your read on Sobolev? You said she was a top town read, why haven't you tried to reach out and get her to townread you?

It kind of affected my read, but overall I've seen her as town this whole game. I don't know exactly what you mean by reach out to her to change her mind. All I've done this game is post my honest thoughts and don't really see why my posts are "bad in iso." It seems the tone of the game has drastically changed on the last page which has been pretty confusing for me.

i didn't realize chip was as experienced as he was however, so the i'm not tring these as much as before

[Sobolev Space]

lol my reads were pretty garbage that game but thankfully i had some good doc shots and my bad reads actually saved me from death n1

[Sobolev Space]

Given you've asked me for my thoughts on Micc when I hadn't mentioned him yet, (and given, though slightly less so, that you haven't really mentioned me outside there) I find it surprising you didn't mention why you're scumleaning on me. I'd like to hear your thoughts there.

Readlist incoming.

wait cheeky i'm still interested in seeing this

[Sobolev Space]

how much consideration have you accounted for regarding the time left in the Day? Looks to me like BlueBlake was at L-1 with 12 hours left in the Day and Sunlit Diamond went to L-2 on page 4. One player was basically 99% to be lynched that Day and the other maybe 25%. Transitioning back to this game I think its silly for anyone think that Chip was in danger of being lynched on page 4...and with that in mind its more likely that he was trying to dissolve his wagon instead of give sound advice to the town.

i agree with this to an extent which is why i thought it was newbie townish as newbies usually have a less calibrated sense of when somebody is close to actually getting lynched. however, even though he's more experienced than i thought i don't think your explanation is the best one for his post and the reaction still reads towny overall

what do you think of him now? do you buy his last post?

[Sobolev Space]

Still at my mums, no pc, so after digging through ISO's this is briefly where I'm at:

Chip Butty, Hopkirk, Sobolev Space
northsidegal
Micc
Kawso, BTD6_maker
Cabd

I have some interesting points on Cabd, including what I think is a scum slip, which I will go into at some stage, a strange feeling about micc and NSG but I think I'll have to PoE these slots when I get more from my null reads, I'll say null town on them for now.

interested in seeing what you think the cabd scumslip was i have him as null town

kawso should be lower. i realize he's been inactive but 107 is pretty terrible

[Sobolev Space]

yea just iso'd cabd and i can't see anything that looks like a scumslip

[Sobolev Space]

cabd whats the eta on you having reads on everyone

[Sobolev Space]

yea i don't see what you're talking about here cheeky

[Sobolev Space]

The setup isn't anything too complex, I will note we will NOT get flips night one; and no-lynching in this setup is almost always the wrong move.


The two "self-docs" here

should be treated somewhat like you

would bulletproofs in the matrix 6 setup, with the note that them claiming early like the matrix 6 BP strat is a bad idea.

is it that the voicing here indicates scum pov somehow?

[Sobolev Space]

wait doesn't that fall under the setup error though?

[Sobolev Space]

I replaced in blind, really, because i saw the player list and liked it.

how does this relate to what we were discussing?

[Sobolev Space]

hmmm i can see some at least one reasonable way town could have posted that but i want to see cabd's response first

[Sobolev Space]

is this the sole reason you're scumreading cabd, cheeky?

[Sobolev Space]

fair enough. given cabd's lackluster response i'm inclined to believe you might be on to something

[Sobolev Space]

my theory was that given this post:

I realize the creator of this setup is here, but my itch to try and break setups will never truly go away.

cabd had at least seen the setup or had some familiarity with it from before (it won some open setup contest in 2015 iirc?) and remembered the nk mechanics for scum but not the exact distribution of town prs - which makes sense because the mechanics are much more unique.

[Sobolev Space]

interested in seeing where this is going to go but unfortunately i have to log off for the night to finish this econ pset. hoping to see some answers/content from cabd when i get back tomorrow

final question:

Ok I'm here I only really wanted Sobolev to answer, so I'll proceed.

cheeky what were you hoping to glean from my answer? why just me?

[Sobolev Space]

damn sorry you had to claim so early cabd. fwiw i had no idea you were pr before you claimed.

obviously if anyone can cc they should now so we get a 1v1. i doubt this will be the case because it would be suicide from scum to claim at that point. the main reason we do this is to make clear that

if you don't cc within your next post you are waiving your right to do so at any time in the future

. this is to prevent scum from trying to claim doc when they're close to lynch.

i don't cc obviously.

i probably agree with cheeky that cabd should just self-protect every night. this way we don't have to risk going to lylo without any benefit from the doc and we get at least one conftown. but its your call at the end of the day.

[Sobolev Space]

in class now more thoughts when i get home

[Sobolev Space]

I mean yeah NSG's approach to this game has been very weird; but can somebody explain why it's SCUM-weird?

Yep. Why is she pointing out weird stuff but hesitant to make a proper stand/push? It feels very scummy to me. I might change my mind if she produces evidence of reads, but I'm pretty sure she's saying stuff just to say stuff.

idk if i agree with this although i do want nsg to add more actual contet. like when scum is being hesitant its usually to make it look like they're scumhunting etc. without having to take strong stances ppl can tie them to but if we look at nsg's recent post:

as for what's happened with cheeky and cabd's claim, it's the same adjective i seem to be saying a lot this game - strange. i really couldn't understand what the slip was meant to be and when cheeky revealed it i didn't think it meant anything. i mean, i knew that arsonists couldn't prime and ignite on the same night before i signed up, so for someone of cabd's experience i would figure he'd have to know.

with that in mind i find it really weird how cabd claimed

. it didn't seem like anyone except cheeky was really pressuring him so i didn't think it was necessary, and if it was supposed to be obvious by that point then i didn't pick up on it. as with every time i make a post calling something strange, i have to explicitly say that i'm not trying to build a scum case here - obviously if nobody counterclaims then we should believe cabd. at this point i'd say i'm waiting to see where cheeky goes from here.

i don't really see any reason why scum would do this. like scum knows 100% that cabd is doc and not getting lynched ever so there's no reason to hedge a read there or pretend to be weirded out by cabd's claim when they know nothing is going to come of it. it makes me feel like nsg is expressing genuine difficulty and not posting with an agenda

the only way it makes sense is if its a cabd/nsg team and nsg knows cabd will be cc'd but this is almost certainly not the case

[Sobolev Space]

I mean yeah NSG's approach to this game has been very weird; but can somebody explain why it's SCUM-weird?

yeah that's where I got hung up as well.

how do you feel about what I said in post 229? ive got a lynch pool of kawso, BTD6_maker and hopkirk and then chip butty and northsidegal are on the second tier.

micc can i convince you to vote for kawso. like i get he's been lurky but i just don't see at all how a townie comes back to the game, sees 4 new pages and just makes 107 with a garbage explanation for a vote. its like he's just searching for reasons to vote so he's at least doing something without actually engaging in the game

[Sobolev Space]

CT, what did you make of Micc's 'overstatement'? Does it look like a plausibly genuine misreading to you?

what is this in reference to?

[Sobolev Space]

hopkirk is back to null for now

[Sobolev Space]

even if you don't have any strong scumreads do you have any townreads nsg?

[Sobolev Space]

or anything you found "strange" you want people to expand on?

[Sobolev Space]

even if you don't have any strong scumreads do you have any townreads nsg?

oh yeah, that would be useful! obviously cabd, you and chip.

why do you think these are obvious? except for cabd

[Sobolev Space]

well scope errors notwithstanding i'm still interested in hearing why u tr me and chip

[Sobolev Space]

interesting. why do you think people are scumreading you now? can you see where they're coming from?

[Sobolev Space]

in addition, you've been pressuring kawso's slot for inactivity which i see as town-motivated.

of note is that i don't scumread kawso for inactivity. btd6 has also been inactive but i haven't put any pressure on him

[Sobolev Space]

oh another question i was supposed to ask today but forgot

interested in seeing where this is going to go but unfortunately i have to log off for the night to finish this econ pset. hoping to see some answers/content from cabd when i get back tomorrow

final question:

Ok I'm here I only really wanted Sobolev to answer, so I'll proceed.

cheeky what were you hoping to glean from my answer? why just me?

I wanted to make sure you weren't his buddy or at least to get a grip on the relationship. The fact you couldn't see anything made sense and your tone was genuine curiosity rather than discrediting. It reinforced my town read.

why were you interested specifically in a me/cabd team? if you townread me wouldn't you think its more likely that cabd's partnered with someone else?

[Sobolev Space]

what do you think about hopkirk's argument about your defense of cabd in 111? you earlier complained that hopkirk isn't making any cases and this is one of the few justifications i see for his read on you

[Sobolev Space]

Not Voting: Cabd, BTD6_maker, Chip Butty, Micc, northsidegal

[Sobolev Space]

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

sure

{SS, Cabd}
{NSG, Cheeky, Chip}
{BTD}
{Hopkirk, Micc}
{Kawso}

[Sobolev Space]

why were you interested specifically in a me/cabd team? if you townread me wouldn't you think its more likely that cabd's partnered with someone else?

Your interactions around your push on me made me wonder about the nature of your relationship. I also wanted you because you seem the most logical/objective this far, so you'd be able to tell me if what I was seeing was warranted suspicion or not. The second question is disappointing. Surely you don't believe scum always act obviously scummy?

i included the second part to highlight that i wanted to know what special relationship you thought i had with cabd. like unless i was thought specific interactions were worth investigating a priori i'd be more interested in looking for partner relationships between my scumreads than my townreads was the argument i was making

[Sobolev Space]

no i was just clarifying why i included that part

[Sobolev Space]

semi-prodge been absurdly busy this weekend and will continue to be busy this week. will try to answer the questions to me tonight. there's some rereading i want to do (hopkirk/micc/chip interactions) but won't have time for a few days.

[Sobolev Space]

okay back for a bit now

hopkirk is back to null for now

Sobolev, can you please expand on this? What post(s) made him drop from you liking him to falling back to null and why?

this was after he had posted 241, 245 and 247. there wasn't anything especially scummy in those posts i guess i just wasn't too impressed by the questions he was asking and thought he would have been expanding his game out more by that point. i kinda had the same impression that nsg did 268 so i decided to put him back to null

hopkirk is back to null for now

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

sure

{SS, Cabd}
{NSG, Cheeky, Chip}
{BTD}
{Hopkirk, Micc}
{Kawso}

@Sobolev: there were 4 Hopkirk posts in between these. Can you please explain your progression from null to scumlean on him, with reference to those four posts?

i didn't find hopkirk/micc especially scummy at that time but i had enough trs that people i had at null still seemed more likely than average to be scum. i put btd a tier above just because there's a chance he could've come back from v/la and obvtowned it up while that ship had already sailed for hopkirk/micc

[Sobolev Space]

i like btd's most recent post but plz also give your reads on everyone else

[Sobolev Space]

what does track mean in this context?

[Sobolev Space]

ah i gotchu

cabd are you deliberately holding back your reasons for scumreading micc/your other reads? is there any time in the near future when these will be made known?

[Sobolev Space]

i also wanna apologize again to everyone for low activity. i have an insane amount of things to do before friday but hopefully after that i'll have more time for this game.

i kinda just wanna reread the whole game because i'm feeling very meh about my reads as a whole. the hopkirk/micc/chip interactions i feel should be revealing but i don't see any obvious insights to glean from them.

if i can't make some sort of game advancing post by friday night i'll probably replace out

cabd, if this means you want to delay giving your full thoughts i understand

[Sobolev Space]

final note before i shut off the computer to study for midterms:

I guess what i am thinking is SOMEBODY must be scum, and we would be stiff to have got both in the inactives, in which case everything so far has been people blowing hot air at each other. But I'm really not picking up much among the actives, and Hopkirk just has a slightly less town vibe than the others. I know that's vague but it is the best I've got right now.

unlike cheeky i actually townread this. i think its a decent diagnosis of the game state and does show some attempt at scumhunting (i.e. both scum probably aren't in the inactives)

people often think its scummy to not take strong positions and be wishy-washy about the game state but in my (limited) experience scum do try to take strong positions, they just don't do the pushing/work that they would be doing if they actually believed what they said