Open 714: Tit for Tat [Game Over]

[Mathdino]

jmo16mla

(4) ~

northsidegal

, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox,

Luca Blight

jmo16mla (4) ~ northsidegal, Creature, Gamma Emerald, JaydragonKing

RVS jmo wagon next to the policy jmo wagon.

Mathdino (4) ~

JaydragonKing

, TheGoldenParadox,

Luca Blight

,

Gamma Emerald

Everyone ballsy enough to vote me.

northsidegal

(4) ~

Creature

,

Mathdino

, TheGoldenParadox,

JaydragonKing

northsidegal

(4) ~

JaydragonKing

,

Almost50

,

Mathdino

,

Luca Blight

Early pressure wagon next to the lategame lurker wagon.

Gamma Emerald

(6) ~

jmo16mla

,

Pinturicchio

, Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox, mutantdevle,

Luca Blight

The Gamma wagon, now confirmed to be partially scum motivated.

Pinturicchio

(6) ~

northsidegal

, mutantdevle,

Luca Blight

, Mathdino,

Almost50

,

JaydragonKing

,

TheGoldenParadox

The Pintu "lynch"wagon, with TheGoldenParadox's intent to hammer.

Aneninen (5) ~ TheGoldenParadox, Mathdino,

Luca Blight

,

Almost50

,

Gamma Emerald

Aneninen (6) ~

Almost50

,

JaydragonKing

, Mathdino,

Luca Blight

,

Pinturicchio

, mutantdevle
Aneninen (6) ~ Mathdino,

Luca Blight

,

Almost50

,

Gamma Emerald

,

Pinturicchio

,

JaydragonKing

The many forms of the Aneninen wagon. All players who were on it are:
TheGoldenParadox, Mathdino, Luca Blight, Almost50, Gamma Emerald, JaydragonKing, Pinturicchio, mutantdevle.

mutantdevle (5) ~ Aneninen,

Gamma Emerald

, Mathdino,

Almost50

,

JaydragonKing

mutant counterwagon.

Almost50 (6) ~

Pinturicchio

,

JaydragonKing

,

Luca Blight

, mutantdevle, TheGoldenParadox,

Gamma Emerald

Shitshow of a lynch wagon.

Go to town, VCA enthusiasts.

If it isn't obvious by VCA alone that the scumteam is literally {mutant, Paradox} idk what to tell you.

We lynch one scum today, we win mechanically. We lynch ANYONE today, we can still win mechanically (it's just harder). That is why shooting the vigilante was the wrong call.

[Mathdino]

I actually really agree with Anen's point about Math manipulating the vig, which is why I feel one of them is scum.

Well then, what are you waiting for. Jump on the wagon again, let's lynch Aneninen and if he flips town, the vig shoots Dino.

If Aneninen flips scum, we follow the first plan and the vig shoots me.

This I guess means Anen is unlikely to be scum?

Yeah this is pretty blatant.

VOTE: mutant

Aneninen is basically conftown from that alone. I refuse to believe pintu is THAT good at scum.

Pick whichever of mutant/Paradox you think I'm more likely to be partners with if you're not confident about me. Since I'm literally trying to prove I'm not scum with mutant, I'd figured that'd be him, but w/e.

Lynch mutant, jail Paradox. If there's a kill somehow, it's Aneninen vs me. If there's no kill, lynch Paradox.

[Luca Blight]

Yeah I think it's Mutant/Paradox. I'll give everyone a chance to post before I vote.

[Mathdino]

Let's get spicy:

VOTE: jmo16mla

Uh sure, Jay can die.

I think mutant is town, but whatever.

Also recall that mutant was literally the one who started using Creature's reads as a basis for generating reads.

That flips NKA around to idea of "mutant killed Creature for being on the wrong track so he could sheep him".

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma who did you jail last night?

you
also wtf nsg?

[Gamma Emerald]

Whoever is scum obviously had a good idea NSG was vig - missing a pr would have basically been game over for scum at this point.

From my perspective it could have been Mutant, jmo or NSG - which I guess lends value to Mutant being one of the scum.

The vig was super obviously in {NSG, jmo}. Jay literally openly fished for the vig. That combined with NSG referring to N1 as a confidence booster, yeah.

What I'm wondering is what kind of scumteam thinks vig is actually a bigger threat to them than jailkeeper.

Do we feel safe ruling out a Math/Paradox scumteam? I've been paranoid about that for a while, but there were a few interactions which make it seem unlikely.

If we can rule that out then at least one of Mutant/Anen are scum.

You should also rule out a Math/mutant scumteam on the basis that I tried my damnedest to get him vigged.

My basic argument here is to Gamma:
The scumteam made an objectively suboptimal play there. Confirmed Jailkeeper before Possible Vigilante in potential MyLo is the correct call.

That is not a play I would even have thought of making. The scumteam for whatever reason thought the jailkeeper was less of a threat than the vig.

This implies one of 2 things:
1. Your reads are significantly shittier than NSG's
2. mutant is likely scum, AND mutant is scum who took the shot knowing you would jail elsewhere.

@NSG:

To be clear the reason that was a questionable shot is because Gamma very well could've jailed jmo, stopping the shot altogether.

Thinking about it, what's the implications of a mutant/Anen team? Because I was pretty adamant Anen wasn't scum.

[Gamma Emerald]

ok I guess I'll not worry about Anen being scum

yet

. Also it's possible rolecop actually found the vig n1 so maybe we can smoke them out by finding some sort of crumb or inconcsistency.

[Mathdino]

Gamma, it doesn't matter.

mutant was lined up to be vigged last night. If he's scum, he was 100% the one that took the shot. You jailing Paradox just slightly decreases the likelihood of Paradox/Aneninen scumteam in a kind of Bayesian way.

We lynch mutant, jail Paradox again. Or Aneninen if you're feeling super spicy. But Aneninen isn't scum.

Edit: Gamma, no, stop it. Jay openly fished for the vig. NSG was obvious vig.

[Mathdino]

ok I guess I'll not worry about Anen being scum

yet

. Also it's possible rolecop actually found the vig n1 so maybe we can smoke them out by finding some sort of crumb or inconcsistency.

I also have no idea why they would rolecop NSG over me for example.

Granted, if the team is mutant/Paradox, I guess I'd expect them to make bad night actions.

Shooting Creature for the NKA was itself a bad move tbh.

Plus if we're referencing Team Mafia, you should know from Team Mafia that I wouldn't shoot Creature while he was townreading me and my partner.

mutant, given that he explicitly used Creature's reads as a tool, definitely would.

[Gamma Emerald]

Not referencing Team Mafia, not sure if that's allowed rn

[Mathdino]

Aneninen was doing it so I figured "what the hell".

But yeah we should end this.

[Mathdino]

Oh, yeah, and if I'm wrong on this, I fully accept that that's essentially a scumclaim from me.

[mutantdevle]

Guys, relax, is just a game and I get it, I'm not going anywhere. I'm having fun nevertheless; if I weren't, I would've replaced out long ago, after my first readlist. But let's keep things going: I may be dead, but I haven't lost the game as this is a team game, so go on and push another wagon. Just to be clear: I don't think this "push a wagon till getting a claim" is the best strategy at all. Also, I'm following my own reads right now and put my vote on A50, as I'm really tired of his vig softclaims that could justify his lack of content and voting for anyone who's getting pushed without explaining himself. Maybe it's a playstyle thing, but whatever.
VOTE: Almost50

Pin steering the attention away from the Mutant wagon looks pretty bad on Mutant, particularly given Pin and Mutant were 'scumreading' each other; why would scum-pin want to interrupt another townie getting to L-1 and claiming?

To successfully lynch a player that he considers a far bigger threat presumably.

[mutantdevle]

NSG made a terrible shot

It's mutant/Paradox, and

gammas jail tonight will give us the 1 mislynch to solve it

(referring to the bold).

Umm no, that's not how it works. If we lynch wrong today then we've as good as lost IMO. If today's lynch ends up as town then Gamma will have 3 players to potentially jail. Even though it's a 2/3 chance of jailing scum, only one of them is going to be performing the kill. A town flip means Gamma's jail will decide the game with only a 1/3 chance of winning. We shouldn't be so careless about this lynch.

I'm also not comfortable having the lynch be between myself and Paradox. Anen should be included in the pool as well. I think you and TGP are both town but TGP less so; by PoE that must mean TGP is scum but I am far more confident in Anen and that's who I want lynched today.

[mutantdevle]

I should basically be conf town once mutant flips scum

And when I don't flip scum it means the game is over.

[mutantdevle]

2. mutant is likely scum, AND mutant is scum who took the shot knowing you would jail elsewhere.

Umm, why does shooting a potential vig instead of a confirmed jailkeeper make specifically me scum exactly?

[Mathdino]

Honestly this post pretty much confirms it. I've been in awkward 5p LyLos with a scumbuddy before, where you don't wanna hardbus (because you'd lose 3p) but you also can't figure out what to make of them.

Umm no, that's not how it works. If we lynch wrong today then we've as good as lost IMO. If today's lynch ends up as town then Gamma will have 3 players to potentially jail. Even though it's a 2/3 chance of jailing scum, only one of them is going to be performing the kill. A town flip means Gamma's jail will decide the game with only a 1/3 chance of winning. We shouldn't be so careless about this lynch.

I'm also not comfortable having the lynch be between myself and Paradox. Anen should be included in the pool as well. I think you and TGP are both town but TGP less so; by PoE that must mean TGP is scum but I am far more confident in Anen and that's who I want lynched today.

If we lynch wrong today, that gives Gamma a 50/50 shot at jailing the scum that does the kill. I think we can rule out more than enough scumteams to argue that it's basically gonna be 50/50.

You understand a scumflip would mean the game is basically over for scum?

Why would you be unwilling to lynch Paradox then if you don't think Math/Anen is the scumteam?

[mutantdevle]

Yeah I think it's Mutant/Paradox. I'll give everyone a chance to post before I vote.

I really don't see why we're excluded Anen here? Is it literally just because of that 1 line from Pintu?

[Mathdino]

2. mutant is likely scum, AND mutant is scum who took the shot knowing you would jail elsewhere.

Umm, why does shooting a potential vig instead of a confirmed jailkeeper make specifically me scum exactly?

I'm saying that since we lined you up to be vigged, Gamma was definitely not jailing you, so you-scum would be free to perform the nightkill.

Shooting a potential vig instead of a confirmed jailkeeper actually makes Paradox scum, because he has no idea how to play mechanically optimally.

[mutantdevle]

If we lynch wrong today, that gives Gamma a 50/50 shot at jailing the scum that does the kill. I think we can rule out more than enough scumteams to argue that it's basically gonna be 50/50.

You understand a scumflip would mean the game is basically over for scum?

Why would you be unwilling to lynch Paradox then if you don't think Math/Anen is the scumteam?

I'm assuming the 50/50 you are referring to is that you wouldn't consider yourself in that?

I do agree to some extent that a scum flip today would spell game over for scum in most cases. However, there's still the possibility that scum could A) slime their way out of it to win or B) you are also scum.

I'm not unwilling to lynch Paradox, that is a blatant misrep. I literally just said I'd prefer to lynch Anen because that's who I'm most confident in. I'm not totally unwilling to lynch you either - though I can never be sure if that's MyLo paranoia kicking in.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Paradox

[Mathdino]

You agree a single scumflip solves the game.

Prove you're town by voting with me.

[Mathdino]

Like, you have to be aware that the town's general lynch preference today is
mutant > Paradox > Anen/Mathdino

You're straight up not getting your Aneninen lynch. Luca and I would never join that wagon.

[Mathdino]

also can i just point out that NSG shooting jmo (my townread, who is explicitly better lategame) on her own whim despite clear implied consensus on shooting mutant

is literally my exact proof that vigs are anti-town

had vig literally just been a named townie, we'd have lynched pintu D1, Jay D2, and mutant D3, leaving us in a better situation with fewer townies dead

[mutantdevle]

2. mutant is likely scum, AND mutant is scum who took the shot knowing you would jail elsewhere.

Umm, why does shooting a potential vig instead of a confirmed jailkeeper make specifically me scum exactly?

I'm saying that since we lined you up to be vigged, Gamma was definitely not jailing you, so you-scum would be free to perform the nightkill.

Shooting a potential vig instead of a confirmed jailkeeper actually makes Paradox scum, because he has no idea how to play mechanically optimally.

I see your logic with your first point because I agree that that would make perfect sense if I was scum - I fail to see how that is evidence I am scum though.

You're second point is evidence that TGP is scum though, not me. Paradox would still kill NSG regardless of my alignment. What you have here is a case on TGP, not me.

Pedit: which I see you have rectified with your vote.

Pedit2: Okay, I'll take up your offer on sheeping you on Paradox. I guess I kinda owe it to you after ignoring what you said about A50. But if you're wrong about this then you have no right to ever tell me to sheep you again on my town reads in any future games.

VOTE: TheGoldenParadox