Okay, I'm going to go line by line here and try to match with my notes. It's been several days, so hopefully I still know what this means.
Actually, the game started on the 22nd. Looking back at our Team PT, we were given all the role PMs on the 19th and took the better part of the day to assign them. I'm not sure how that went for other teams, but the game thread did not open until the 22nd. I looked at the Invention Scum PT to get an idea of when that one opened up, and the first non-mod post wasn't until the 21st. So I'm not sure what this line is in reference to. It's easy to say "Welp, Arch just screwed up and let it slip he's scum.", but that's assuming that the mod opened up the Scum PT that early and Arch's team started posting in there on the 20th (hence game starting). But again, I don't have any way to verify that, and everything I do have points to that still being potentially too early. I also don't think that Arch is talking about team comp discussion here. He'd say so. So not sure what the answer is here, but I am noticing that this is a major time discrepancy in Arch's post.
I have a note here that says "Skirt discrepancy". Not sure what that means, so going to look real quick.
...
Okay, so best that I can tell, it has to do with the way UCV pushed Skirt. Arch says that Creature was the one that wanted UCV to push Skirt, but UCV repeatedly says it's Mulch. The focus is actually incredibly Mulch-centric, and Creature is left out of it until after Dino starts hounding UCV. UCV explodes on Dino, specifically asking if Mulch is not good enough, but you'd think with a focus from the playerlist on what Creature is thinking, that if Creature was actually giving feedback, UCV wouldn't have a problem just giving that straightaway. I don't know. It just doesn't feel right.
Also, for those I asked about if UCV was a clinical player: He gave percentages on how sure his team mates were on Skirt being scum. They're all 100%, except for Creature, who is 99%. He repeats this again later. I've played with Creature, and I've never seen him display that level of doubt if he had a strong scum read. Maybe I just haven't played with him enough, and I've been wrong before, but I don't think Creature is one to say "I'm 99% sure this guy is scum.". He'd just scream "X is scum!" over and over again.
In post 2938, Archwing wrote:
early town reads on dunker bins and a50.
keychain looks bad, thus he makes the first scum team guess of {lld, skirt, keychain}
This is where Mina gets that UCV and Arch are consistent. Compare the above to this UCV post:
In post 312, UC Voyager wrote: In post 306, Mathdino wrote:I'm not asking you to have Creature read the thread literally this second.
I'm asking you when he has provided input in the past, and if he has been reading this thread.
I've twice requested specifically him to be reading this game.
) Elena is most likely to choose scum from her team 2) eddie succesfully pocketed someone 3) Mathdino's reads seem pretty good 4) We want eddie cane pushed but I'm not 99% 5) Keychain was scummy but then he thinks he must be misreading them 6) LLD is scummy 7) Early game called LLD, skirt skirt, keychain 8) bulba is town 9) almost50 is town cause playing like open 707 10) Bins is town 11) Dunkerdoodles feels town
all posted by creature
here
Scum reads and town reads are the same. I didn't really see it at first, but that's because you have to rearrange what's being said about the town reads. This is also consistent to what he said earlier about Creature's strength on Skirt (something I just covered), but again, that seems like a really weird thing for Creature to say. And given how much Dino had to push to get this, I'm really not sure about the whole thing.
In post 2938, Archwing wrote:
25th says {elena LLD transcend}
also thinks TBone doesn't pick scum and then lurk 'til lynched.
I checked the timeline here, and this doesn't match up. I'm not sure about the team suggestion, but more on the suggestion that Creature thinks T-Bone is town. If that was the case, apparently UCV didn't get the memo, because he started pushing the slot on the 25th.
In post 2938, Archwing wrote:
29th thinks bins being dino's top lynch is wtffff
thinks NSG and dino are the most likely people on your team to pick scum.
I looked all over the UCV ISO from the 29th on, and there's no evidence of a Math scumread.
In post 2938, Archwing wrote:
on the first of feb, thought about pushing chess for scum, then retracted and said stay on havingfitz.
The Chess scumread lines up here. UCV was scumreading Chess at the time. Other than that, "stay on Havingfitz" makes zero sense. UCV wasn't voting the Fitz slot at the time, and hadn't the entire day phase. In fact, his vote was still on Titus at the time. UCV wouldn't vote Fitz until the next day, at which point the wagon was gaining a lot of attention.
Here's the case being referenced:
In post 2053, Almost50 wrote:
CK not using the alleged program in this game is pinging me, and the swap in itself could've been strategically done to play down suspicion on Smocaine (maybe Smocaine couldn't handle it anymore. I don't know). CK may have felt he's done a good job already and could now try to bring his team the in in here.
I actually had to do a Chess ISO dive for a reference, as I'd only read the Inventions scum chat, so thanks for that trip into the jaws of insanity (although it was slightly amusing). Finally found it, and I'm not sure how A50 thinks it'd be any use here. 1.) It was made clear that Chess did not have access to the program, but had seen info on certain select players that were likely to be in the tourney. 2.) He only had the info on those players. 3.) The info was on high level players that would be difficult to read. I'm not sure if anyone thought we actually had anyone that would fit on that list and that Chess/Elli would have tried looking up. T-Bone maybe? CDB? The list would be very small, and that's assuming those names were one of the few that he looked up before Elli took over the tourney.
It makes sense that A50 would be zeroed in on it, since he was trying to break the tournament via tourney-wide VCA. It's conceivable that Creature would have expected something similar, but again, in that same game, Chess made it clear that his having info on Mastina from the program was a fluke and likely not repeatable. In other words, the application of such knowledge was limited, and it was unlikely to be useful again. If Chess did have information to use in this game, he'd likely push it, although he did seem to want to do so at a minimum, as he wasn't sure of the legality of the whole thing. When he brought it up in Inventions, it was more of a "Hey guys! I actually have more proof than what I've presented, and I'm 100% sure, but I can't go any further on this. Just do what I ask, because I didn't want to bring this up in the first place.". So not something he's going to rush in this game and advertise if he did have such info.
Also, he was on vacation at the time. So...
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