Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)

[Creature]

tbh I'm townreading Shadpearl because I don't think scum would've hammered yesterday.

[Taly]

tbh I'm townreading Shadpearl because I don't think scum would've hammered yesterday.

I definitely can see scum hammering though, especially one without any intent or given warning. Even more specifically, an SK.

A flip of

Shadpearl

would greatly help confirm the validity of

profii's

claim.

However, the only reality where

Shadpearl

would be rightfully tracked through targeting

Aneninen

, but not killing him, is because he's a doc and failed to use the element the scum used to kill

Aneninen

.

Which is extremely, extremely unlikely and would assume that

Almost50

fakeclaimed, which we do not have the adequate information to deduce that.

Scum probably would not claim given the possibility of being speedlynched the dayphase after for not being truthful.
Town, especially noobtown to my understanding, would probbaly not have hammered in the manner that

Shadpearl

has. He asked no questions of his own, or much thoughts beyond hammering just to hammer

Jimmy

.

[Creature]

Oh right...

[texcat]

VOTE: ShadPearl
But Profii, I thought you said you thought I was the SK earlier?

Can you tell me specifically what your view of

Almost50's

claim is?

Sigh. Yep I agree that the doc should not counterclaim, since you've essentially just admitted that your claim was fake.

Or rather, a better question, what makes you think

Almost50

fakeclaimed? Also,

Why is a counterclaim good with 11 people still alive....?

If you don't think a counterclaim is good, then why did you point out the possibility of it?

When I originally said that a counterclaim was possible, I was thinking that A50 was a doc, and that if we didn't have a counterclaim that would confirm him. When he immediately told the real doc not to counterclaim, it looked to me like he was saying that his doc claim was fake. And PS that second quote is not from me.

[profii]

Yea I know I don’t want To trigger Shad. I think I’m still at risk

[Taly]

Oh right...

Regardless of

Shadpearl's

alignment, his flip would give very valuable information. Though, I do believe he is scum or the SK.

If Shadpearl's a VT

, then that 100% proves that

profii

lied about the claim, and is thus, almost certainly scum.

In this event, looking at his wagon progression today would be very telling of who could or could not be a partner who potentially bussed, or how people have read

profii

if here were hypothetically the SK.

If Shadpearl's a Doctor

, then that would immediately disprove

Almost50's

claim, and also indicate that he's likely scum.

In this event, we have 3 dayphases of information regarding

Almost50's

interactions and how people viewed his claim, and the wagons he pushed.

If Shadpearl somehow IS, in fact, the Tracker

,

profii

is being speedlynched D4 and almost certainly flip scum. If he flips town though, I will be absolutely floored because I genuinely believe this is near-impossible in this scenario.

I'm not entertaining this scenario unless it happens.

If Shadpearl's an SK

, then

profii

is completely truthful about the claim, and

Almost50

gains validity in his own claim.

This both eliminates a killer to the town, and solidifies town within itself.

If Shadpearl's scum

, then not only is

profii

truthful and

Almost50

is more likely to be truthful, then the mixed interactions with

Shadpearl

this entire game so far could be very telling of the rest of the scumteam. Since

JaydragonKing

is confscum dead, then town can use interactions with between the two of them to help locate the final scum, and potentially the SK itself.

This eliminates a scum player, and will most likely give town an extra day before MYLO.

In no situation, does this seem unfavorable for the town in the long-run.

People can bicker and waffle for the rest of this dayphase, but if there's anyway the town can be united in one form for once in this game, it is to vote with

profii

, and greatly push to help gamesolve.

~~~~
P-Edit

Shit, sorry

texcat

, I messed up with the quoting there, the question was from me.

[Creature]

We might be SK-dependent at this point, but whatever.

I guess we can try to pull a mighty comeback.

[Sando]

Your analysis is off there Taly:

Anything other than a Doc Shad townflip confirms Profii is scum. How does VT prove he lied and thus scum not translate into Tracker proving he lied and thus scum.

SK doesn't prove the claim, it says either Profii is a scum and got lucky, or is the tracker.

Scumflip yeah, proves the tracker claim. I'm assuming an SK doesn't fakeclaim Tracker with the massive target that they're guaranteed to get.

People can bicker and waffle for the rest of this dayphase, but if there's anyway the town can be united in one form for once in this game, it is to vote with profii, and greatly push to help gamesolve.

Absolutely not. The claim is no more believable than A50s, especially since it tracks a flipped doc and gives a guilty of SK.

The n-2 I tracked Shadpearl who went for Anen so I am guessing he is the serial killer. Again tracked the lol hammer. You’ll note I wasn’t on the lynch of jimmy during this day

Why on earth assume SK?

Also, you got a confirmed Doc who subsequently got lynched after 2 doc deaths...surely you at least breadcrumbed this?

Jimmy - potential SK for similar reasons to Tex, particularly with that lynch but I know there can only be one.

Jimmy seems like an easy player to pick on, if he flips non-scum, I think we would need to look at his wagon - but I think he could very likely flip scum.

That's the extent of your D2 Jimmy talk...

I'm happy not killing Profii today, there's (almost) zero way he survives the night anyway as Tracker.

UNVOTE:

I'm not happy voting Shad (lolwat?), there's no need to prove/disprove the tracker claim even with a CC, we're not lynching a potential scum-bait just to prove a claim who then dies.

[Almost50]

It's nothing but a survivalist vote. Scummy.

Survivalism is NOT scummy. Fitzz' maybe, but not for that.

I am also starting to have second thoughts about Shad despite it all. "Profii is dead" followed by profii saying "GL town" strikes me as a planned theatrical move to try and give an impression profii is town.

[Almost50]

Ok I’ll claim

I’m tracker

??? And it never occurred to you to track me? That is odd. But I guess I'd understand

if

you TR'd me anyway.

[Almost50]

OK.. I'm slow, but others (Taly) may have interpreted what profii said better than myself so..

VOTE: shadpearl

[Sando]

Interesting votes from A50 and Fitz there to force the L-1 and claim, out of ze blue.

So assuming Profii isn't SK:

Scum-Profii probably does not have scum on his wagon.

• Fitz pretty much conftown here
  A50 close to conftown, I don't believe A50 busses here, leaves him solo-scum with at least one person, maybe 2, promising to seriously look at lynching him at that point, I think he relies on his doc claim for now. Ok fine A50 can be conftown in this world.
  Scum probably don't put both in the same wagon, Kop and Creature get town-points
  Leaves Aus, Tex, Shad uninvolved in either wagon <- scum in here.
  Shad isn't scumpartner with Profii
  Leaves Aus/Tex as scum

Tracker-Profii has probably one scum on wagon.

• Taly/LUV/Sando main protagonists
  Fitz puts L-2 and A50 puts L-1
  L-2 vote most scummy, although with Shad in the game could be baiting the quickhammer from A50 (semi-joking only)
  I still don't believe Taly and/or LUV are scum.
  Fitz very likely scum, Shad is scum/SK, A50 further muddies the water and inexplicably survives the night
  Left-over = Creature/Kopherald/Aus/Tex <--- Scum in here
  Kopherald has pushed hard for anti-Profii wagon, townpoints here
  Creature is
  that guy
  
  Aus/Tex have sidelined themselves, scumpoints here

So in my mind we've got:
Scum!Profii = Aus/Tex as scumbuddy
Tracker!Profii = Fitz+Shad, A50 just itching for a lynch, but inexplicably survives yet another night. Aus/Tex again to my mind most likely scum partners.

I'm going with

Aus/Tex

+Fitz or

Aus/Tex

+Profii for scumteam, with either Shad or NFI as SK.

Aus has run the anti-train on Kopherald who is pushing the Fitz train, so Aus+Fitz makes sense in a Tracker-Profii world.

I don't believe any of the claims though, so:

VOTE: Texcat

[Almost50]

My brain isn't working at it's full capacity still, so somebody look at Sando's post here and see if it makes sense for him to vote texcat at this time.

Also, I'm wondering who believes I'm a Doctor and who believes I'm a VT now. A least two people referred to me as the Doctor recently, which IS indeed odd for me to be still alive in that case.

[Sando]

OK.. I'm slow, but others (Taly) may have interpreted what profii said better than myself so..

VOTE: shadpearl

Can we not abrogate our responsibilities Day3 please? We've lynched two docs and gotten SFA from the wagons because of votes exactly like this.

Taly is at least providing reasoning, it's poor, but it's at least reasoning. Everyone else is just lazy and anti-town at this point. When you get a claim with a guilty, you don't just lynch the guilty with the sole intention of getting a read on the claim, that's just lazy and stupid.

[Sando]

But here's a slightly off-topic question; you seemed willing to vote Shadpearl and place a case on them in D2, but especially after his random hammer, you've pushed your attention onto profii, why? Is it mostly to find an associative-tell?

Yeah, and read my posts you'll see exactly why I stopped pushing Shad. I said, multiple times, that it's pretty clear town are just going to buy the noob-town schtick. 969 outlines why I voted Profii originally, I stand by all of that.

[texcat]

You stand by all of that and yet you're voting for me? Why don't you think we need to resolve the Profii/Shadpearl situation?

[Almost50]

OK.. I'm slow, but others (Taly) may have interpreted what profii said better than myself so..

VOTE: shadpearl

Can we not abrogate our responsibilities Day3 please? We've lynched two docs and gotten SFA from the wagons because of votes exactly like this.

Taly is at least providing reasoning, it's poor, but it's at least reasoning. Everyone else is just lazy and anti-town at this point. When you get a claim with a guilty, you don't just lynch the guilty with the sole intention of getting a read on the claim, that's just lazy and stupid.

Excuse you! In my world, a guilty is a guilty unless CC'd. Do you CC profii??

[Sando]

You stand by all of that and yet you're voting for me? Why don't you think we need to resolve the Profii/Shadpearl situation?

Profii is either town or scum. Shad is either town or SK.

Profii!scum gets CC'd today, or later, via an actual CC or a tracker-flip elsewhere, either way, as scum he's pretty royally screwed. He can hope he hits the SK on Taly and win the CC war with the real tracker, otherwise he's pretty deadsies as scum.

Or he's tracker, he dies tonight and has given us a guilty for tomorrow, easy peasy.

The only reason to lynch Shad right now is as Taly says, to stop us having 2 NKs. However:

a) Why did Profii immediately jump to SK conclusion?
b) Profii!scum knows his only hope of surviving is hitting SK/scum on Shad.

So it's a dodgy claim that also happens to be the only way that the claim holds up long term.

If Profii is scum we have plenty of opportunity to lynch him. If he's tracker we have plenty of opportunity to lynch Shad.

Also:

a) If we lynch Shad and get a town-flip, we now have a confscum Profii, who the SK is most definitely not going to kill since it's tomorrow's lynch.
b) If we lynch Shad and get a scum/SK-flip, our tracker is killed.
c) If we don't lynch either and play patiently, SK has to basically kill Profii since he's either scum or tracker, and real Tracker lays low. Also scum!Profii tracker NKing results in his own death anyway. Hell if they want to leave Profii!tracker up and risk another guilty, then we'd have two guilties and have already lynched today within the rest of the pool.

So what does lynching either of them gain us today? The track results are still going to be there tomorrow and there's at least 1, almost definitely 2 baddies outside of those two.

[Sando]

Excuse you! In my world, a guilty is a guilty unless CC'd. Do you CC profii??

No-one should CC Profii today, as per my last post. If you'd like to disagree feel free to pull apart my logic, but you're just making excuses for being lazy to my mind. Given you're the one person who we know definitely won't CC, your input would actually be very welcome here as well. Again, stop abrogating responsibility. There's a 99% chance of there being 2 anti-town players outside of Profii/Shad, much like lynching you is a terrible idea today, lynching within them today when we can look elsewhere for zero cost is also a terrible idea.

[Sando]

Having said all that, Shad should probably claim regardless.

[texcat]

So what does lynching either of them gain us today?

A scum. And some confirmed information that we can use tomorrow.

[Almost50]

UNVOTE:

OK. Going to wait for profii to explain why SK and not Mafia, and also wait for Shad to post.

[Sando]

So what does lynching either of them gain us today?

A scum. And some confirmed information that we can use tomorrow.

We already have one (scum or SK or both), we just don't know which one it is, we have a very good chance of getting that confirmed for us without a potential mislynch. The benefit is potentially stopping the SK kill, which the SK already needs to use to get rid of the tracker...

We have scum and SK in a very difficult position right now, regardless of Profii's claims veracity, throwing that difficulty away by lynching Shad is the cost, for what I think would be negligible gain, given above.

@Texcat Profii and Taly are both on the Shad!SK boat, but you say we've caught scum. Why do you think it's scum and not SK? What do you think of Profii and Taly assuming SK?

[profii]

Phone posting rn but Shad did the opposite of OMGUS with a town read placed on me because He thought I TR him

That as a piece of a larger puzzle seems to me to be someone who wants to keep Reciprocated TRs around to see him through the later stages of the game

Could be wrong - just fits better in my world

[davesaz]

Official Vote Count 3.3

Shadpearl (3) - Taly, profii, texcat
havingfitz (2) - Creature, Kopherald
profii (2) - Lil Uzi Vert, havingfitz
Kopherald (1) - Ausuka
texcat (1) - Sando
Not Voting (2) - Shadpearl, Almost50

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

(expired on 2018-04-14 17:00:00)