Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)

[Taly]

wtf guys, I'm still typing a post during all this voting, express intent

[Ausuka]

express intent

since when do people express intent in open 712

[texcat]

@mod, votecount please

And nope, it looks like L-2. I think Shad, A50, Ausuka, and me are voting Profii.

[profii]

VOTE: profii
Sorry if you're town profii but I can't really see past the fact that you said your inno is "very likely to flip scum" and the fact that you opened today with votes on havingfitz and Taly. Your play isn't consistent with the results you claimed.

I can’t really remember that far back but as a guess I probably forgot the open setup and just had in my head that it might have been a scum PR as I probably expected them to have a way of looking for the SK but I figured that would just draw lynch votes to me which is not where we should be going - obviously that happened anyway so I can just speak freely

Technically that’s still conf town status and you can get Shad tomorrow (or maybe other faction will help over night)

I think based on that mistake by me it makes a50s scum case semi legitimate and probably will prove my downfall - I just hope given the lowish number of players given there still could be 2 NKs tonight that waiting a night to get Shad isn’t too detrimental - obviously if it is this mistake is on me so apologies town

However if people could look past that to the non cc claim it would be optimal

I know the idea of lynching off claim has been paraded although I see the logic again I’d say suboptimal given 2x NKs

I am assuming at this point people are going to go with me or Shad now so let’s get it done

[Taly]

We have a guilty from a claimed and not cc'd tracker. I agree with Ausuka. It looks to me like we have a caught scum. I don't understand why we'd want to mislynch.

All of this wifom and trying to keep scum guessing is nonsense. Scum already knows what's going on and is probably laughing their asses off. And they are never going to resolve this for us. Why would they? Even if the tracker keeps tracking and finding guilties, we probably won't lynch them.

Nobody is saying, or wanting a mislynch.

And you can't say that scum knows what's happening when there are 2 different anti-town factions in play here.

What makes you so quickly to flip and vote

profii

? A few posts ago, you treated it like any other lynch besides

Shadpearl

was ignoring scum.

I still don't feel good about havingfitz or texcat either

Would you mind summarizing? If not I'll ISO you when I can.

PLEASE ISO ME. ISO ANYONE.

I haven't seen really much in depth thoughts of your reads in this game.

Also, you voted

Profii

in 1097 without much reasoning. You unvoted because of the claim, but you haven't stated your thoughts on the results or on

Shadpearl

, and a lot of your posts consist of responding to other people with little reasoning.

Just an FYI because I see how long ago we last posted. Today is my neice's first birthday, so I'm probably not around until like tomorrow evening, but I also hate being prodded, so I am posting a few thoughts now.

Shad is likely a scum, but we have at least two other scum out there. No reason to turbo lynch a guilty right now, we have a good amount of time until the deadline. This discussion is, at the very least getting more content out there to analyze.

Shadpearl, if you are town, get your vote off of yourself. Self-voting is a dumb move as town.

I still don't feel good about havingfitz or texcat either

Would you mind summarizing? If not I'll ISO you when I can.

This is also hilarious to me. Two other people have made comprehensive posts about fitz looking like scum, and seemingly, he wants to ignore those two acting like he'll respond to this one.

-Brass

How do you feel about

Ausuka

and

texcat

?

So, here\s what I think happened:

profii is MAFIA who was being run up to the lynch. He thought his was going to get lynched anyway, so he wanted to draw the Tracker out to CC him for his buddy to kill. The Tracker can get a guilty. The Doctor cannot even protect a target 100%. So he went for it without a thorough revision on his own play/stated opinions, and almost got away with it.

I'm looking at Ausuka in particular now. Her actions around this are pretty weird. I'd track her tonight and lynch her tomorrow regardless UNLESS 2 kills happen AND the Tracker comes out to say she didn't visit one of them.

I'll reiterate so as not to be misunderstood by those who skim for the jest of it all:

IF, and ONLY if, we have 2 NKs, and Ausuka didn't visit either of them should the Tracker claim.

If they see her visiting a NK, OR if she goes nowhere but we only have 1 NK, then she gets lynched without the need for the Tracker to claim.

I'm also still sus of texcatm but I now think fitz could be town here.

My problem with this, is that there's no certainty behind

profii

lying about the claim at the moment.

I'm getting annoyed with the playerlists' insistence on lynching claims. Damn, like, people are actively breaking down any form of general-townreads someone can even temporarily acquire at this point.

I want to see

profii's

reply before I rethink my stance... again.

P-Edit: Before I posted this, profii made a post, and I'm going to evaluate that separately.

Meh, if I was mafia with profii I probably wouldn't have changed my mind there. I don't mind being tracked though so whatever.

Other than yourself(?), do you think there's any other useful candidate in tracking?

UNVOTE:
Actually yeah shadpearl is right. Profii's claim doesn't really align with logic. Still think the tracker should just CC though so we don't risk a mislynch- tracker is a pretty bad PR. Last doc can be on tracker anyway which gives them a chance of survival. Maybe we should just lynch profii anyway, idk. Still not lynching outside those two though.

Explain how a dichotomy is good right now...

Ok I’ll claim

I’m tracker

Looked at Jimmy N-1 and he protected Sando n1 which is nothing really but I did due to that lol hammer
The n-2 I tracked Shadpearl who went for Anen so I am guessing he is the serial killer. Again tracked the lol hammer. You’ll note I wasn’t on the lynch of jimmy during this day

I guess I had some random doubt in my mind that SK and Scum went for Anen or doc went for the wrong element but I’m confident shadpearl is probably the SK when he faked my death just then as I’ve been playing along with his interpretation that I’ve town read him so I assume he wants me alive to give him chance at survival

I am really hoping Shad doesn’t lol hammer now.

What the actual frick is this, Mr. Tracker? If you tracked Jimmy NIGHT 1 and KNEW he was a Doctor on Day 2 WHY would you throw suspicion on him? WHY would you go anywhere near that wagon?! Just assuming you weren't lying for the sake of this argument how can you possibly defend this?!

Trackers don't learn the action that was used on the person, just the target.

So in the world of

Tracker-profii

, when there were 3 other docs still alive before N1's conclusion, had little way of deducing whether or not

Jimmy's

target was a protect or kill, until after a flip on him.

I also don't think

profii

tracking you absolves you from the shit-hammer that was 1000. I can see both a reality where

scum-profii

would fake-guilty you, and

town-profii

tracking you becuase of the content on your posts.

I’m pretty much vote parked and as I mentioned earlier, want my conf town status please

So... Is the main reason behind your claim to try and conf-town you? Why didn't you start the day claiming and voting

Shadpearl

?

[Ausuka]

I think lynching in {Shadpearl, profii} is definitely optimal because there is definitely at least 1 scum in {Shadpearl, profii}- if one of them is SK mafia don't want to resolve it, and if one is mafia the SK probably likes the distraction and won't resolve it either. Tracker isn't a strong PR and if we have 50% chance of lynching scum (speaking mathematically, but due to profii's play around his results the probability is actually a lot higher than that.) We, as a town, need to be resolving issues rather than hoping the mafia does it for us. And I think we can do that by lynching profii today and probably seeing a scumflip.

[profii]

@Taly the very last bit

I didn’t want to reveal I was L-1 - I assume I was intent or I wouldn’t have bothered but I can’t remember
I wouldn’t have claimed and wouldn’t want conf town status otherwise - if I’m conf town, I’m more likely to die via Nk

I think doc!shad is low probability and we should kill him which as a by product conf towns me but the priority is the optimal lynch today

[davesaz]

Official Vote Count 3.4

profii (3) - Almost50, Ausuka, texcat
havingfitz (2) - Creature, Kopherald
Shadpearl (1) - profii
Ausuka (1) - Sando

Not Voting (4) - havingfitz, Lil Uzi Vert, Taly, Shadpearl

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

(expired on 2018-04-14 17:00:00)

[Creature]

So how did profii become wagoned over Shadpearl?

[Ausuka]

He claimed to have an inno on Jimmy and he said Jimmy was "very likely scum." He also claims to have a guilty on shadpearl and he started the day voting havingfitz and then Taly.

[Creature]

Okay, guessing there was some sort of counterclaim and profii is inconsistent.

[Ausuka]

Oh yeah he claimed tracker.

[Creature]

Okay, profii can be confscum

[Creature]

Atleast I wasn't terribly wrong on Shadpearl.

[Ausuka]

Meh, if I was mafia with profii I probably wouldn't have changed my mind there. I don't mind being tracked though so whatever.

Other than yourself(?), do you think there's any other useful candidate in tracking?

Well yeah, almost everyone is a useful track at this point (apart from Shadpearl lol) assuming profii flips scum. The situation is pretty much the same, whoever you track. Leashing the Tracker is obviously a bad move because Mafia could just send their other member to do the kill; it only clears someone from being SK, which is pretty weak considering 2/3 scum are mafia.

[texcat]

Nobody is saying, or wanting a mislynch.

And you can't say that scum knows what's happening when there are 2 different anti-town factions in play here.

What makes you so quickly to flip and vote

profii

? A few posts ago, you treated it like any other lynch besides

Shadpearl

was ignoring scum.

Sando appears to want a mislynch of either me or Ausuka.

One scum team knows what's happening. And the other one doesn't know, but I'm pretty sure is just sitting back and laughing.

I explained when I voted. It was the points that Shad made in 1213 and A50's 1218.

Trackers don't learn the action that was used on the person, just the target.

So in the world of

Tracker-profii

, when there were 3 other docs still alive before N1's conclusion, had little way of deducing whether or not

Jimmy's

target was a protect or kill, until after a flip on him.

I also don't think

profii

tracking you absolves you from the shit-hammer that was 1000. I can see both a reality where

scum-profii

would fake-guilty you, and

town-profii

tracking you becuase of the content on your posts.

There were 2 kills on N1. If Profii tracked Jimmy to Sando on N1, as claimed, Jimmy would be confirmed as a doc. Jimmy has a PR(he visited Sando). Jimmy does not have a killing role(Sando did not die and two others did).

[Kopherald]

Hey, I grabbed like 5 minutes during work to try and gather my thoughts on this, and there is more going on than I expected, but I did come across one question that I need to have answered and I could not find it. Who replaced Doomfeathers? I remember him replacing out, but don't know if his slot is still around.

-Brass

[Creature]

Should we just hammer profii and hope I die tonight or do we delay this day a little more even though the rest of scum know they won't get lynched today?

[Kopherald]

Hey, I grabbed like 5 minutes during work to try and gather my thoughts on this, and there is more going on than I expected, but I did come across one question that I need to have answered and I could not find it. Who replaced Doomfeathers? I remember him replacing out, but don't know if his slot is still around.

-Brass

Nevermind, I was premature here. I remember now, Math replaced doom, and LUV replaced Math, right?

P-edit: profii is not really near hammer

-Brass

[Creature]

VOTE: profii

L-2

[Creature]

I'm sorta getting apathetic this game.

Hopefully SK gets burned, drowned and buried by mafia.

[Creature]

Oh wait, I forgot JaydragonKing died N1 probably to SK.

Sorry SK, hopefully what I just said doesn't happen.

[Creature]

Not feeling well.

[Creature]

Sorta surprised there are only three mafia this setup.

[Sando]

I'll reiterate so as not to be misunderstood by those who skim for the jest of it all: IF, and ONLY if, we have 2 NKs, and Ausuka didn't visit either of them should the Tracker claim. If they see her visiting a NK, OR if she goes nowhere but we only have 1 NK, then she gets lynched without the need for the Tracker to claim.

Just FYI, if you're convinced on Aus getting tracked, then if Profii is scum he needs to die. Scum Profii is 100% the NK submitter since the tracker already has a psuedo-guilty on him. Knocking scum down to a sole person makes the tracker a psuedo-cop at this point. If there's 2 scum and Profii is one, the tracker will guaranteed get a nothingburger on the other one.