Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)

[profii]

Oh Taly

[davesaz]

Official Vote Count 3.5

profii (6) - Almost50, Ausuka, texcat, Creature, Shadpearl, Taly [LYNCH]
havingfitz (1) - Kopherald
Shadpearl (1) - profii
Ausuka (1) - Sando

Not Voting (2) - havingfitz, Lil Uzi Vert

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

profii, a

Elemental Goon,

was lynched

Lil Uzi Vert has requested replacement. Night deadline frozen.

[davesaz]

Something_Smart replaces Lil Uzi Vert,

thanks!!!

PMing all players and setting night to 48 hours. Thanks for your patience!!! Or completely understandable impatience as the case may be.

Special note: If all players confirm they are ok with a shorter deadline, I'm willing to end night as soon as every player has responded (or the next time I'm here after that).

(expired on 2018-04-14 10:00:00)

[davesaz]

After a night that seems like it lasted forever, you finally wake.
Will anyone be missing? Yes, two fail to appear, and you anxiously look to see what happened to them.

You find that Sando has been killed, and it is clear that he was a

Town Tracker

Creature was also killed, but there isn't anything special in his things -- he was a

Vanilla Townie.

You begin another day of trying to figure out who are the killers among you.

Official Vote Count 4.1

Not Voting (8) - Almost50, havingfitz, Something_Smart, texcat, Ausuka, Taly, Kopherald, Shadpearl

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

(expired on 2018-04-27 17:00:00)

[Something_Smart]

wow, you guys are good at lynching town PR's.

[texcat]

Thanks for replacing in, Something!

I'm not sure I remember what was going on in this game. KopHerald, talk to us about Fitz.

[Shadpearl]

I knew it. He changed his read on me way too fast. Shocked Creature was just a Townie though. >_>

Does that extended night phase automatically make Something_Smart guilty as the last Mafia or no? Can't think of another reason to hold the game up until replacement came in... 0_o

[Taly]

Guess we're down to 1 weakened-PR.

Time to look at dead people's reads; + = scumpoints based

Scum and SK likely at havingfitz, Taly and Lil Uzi Vert.

I'm not believing Taly or LUV for scum or Fitzy for SK. Profii flip now says a lot, I think LUV and Kopherald have largely fencesat, LUV more than Kopherald, and now Aus/Tex are throwing me off since unless Shad is SK they've definitely voted their buddy in a 1v1 at some point.

An SK looking at my plan from the outside was the only person who would look at possibilities instead of "this is scary", and that was Kopherald imo.

Still a better plan though.

havingfitz for last scum and LUV for likely SK?

+havingfitz-antitown

for

Creature's

death

+Luv-antitown

for

Creature's

death

But there was no crosskill N3, so 1 of these two are almost certainly town.

havingfitz for last scum and LUV for likely SK?

I'd say Fitzy/Kopherald as likely scumbuddy for Profii.
LUV/Kopherald/Creature as likely SK on Profii-scumflip.

I don't think Kopherald is independantly scummier or SKier (it's a word now), but he appears in both my lists, so I'd probs go him if Profii scumflips.

+havingfitz-antitown

for

Sando's

death

++Kopherald-antitown

for

Sando's

death; very likely due to him being associated with

profii

and by extension

JaydragonKing

, while being noted as a possible SK.

+LUV-antitown

for

Sando's

death

+Creature-antitown

for... what? He died, and is town.

havingfitz for last scum and LUV for likely SK?

Oh wait, you think that if Profii is scum, Fitz would've put him to L-2 today? I knew there was a reason I didn't believe the Fitz+Profii scumteam, that was why. Thoughts?

Sando

doesn't see the validity in

Havingfitz+Profii

as scum, he dies.

And now referencing

Aneninen's

reads;

(Alive) Taly

,

(now) Profii

, (Alive) HavingFitz,

JimmyUrquanwhatzit

may be scum.

Where's Creature?
The LilUzi slot is confusing with all those replacements.

This was

Aneninen's

last post.

+havingfitz

for staying alive, and a candidate for crosskill on

Aneninen;

likely with

profii-scum,

implying they are SK.

+Taly

for staying alive, and a candidate for crosskill on

Aneninen;

likely with

profii-scum

, implying they are SK.

Assessment

Sando

, flipped town, townreads

Luv and Taly

, after thinking of a possibility where

Luv

is SK.

Sando

states that he will go after

Kopherald

based on a

profii-scumflip

, and doesn't believe a

profii+havingfitz

scumteam.

Creature

states

Taly and Luv

as potential SK pool with

havingfitz

.

Aneninen

; scumreads

Taly and havingfitz

, it is known that

profii

is scum but by

Sando's

thoughts; not likely with

havingfitz

.

Kopherald

was noted to be

Sando's

specific target prior to his death.

Verdict - Most Likely Scenario

Night 1

(Implying) JaydragonKing or profii or Kopherald

kills

Lalendra

.

(Implying) Havingfitz-SK

kills

JaydragonKing

.

Night 2

Profii

and

havingfitz

crosskill

Aneninen

.

Night 3

Kopherald (Scum)

kills

Sando

.

Havingfitz (SK)

kills

Creature

.

Designated Mislynch Targets Based On NKed: Taly and Luv

This is the most likely reality,

Kopherald

is more likely buddied with

JaydragonKing

and

profii

, and so I'm slightly closer to 100% certainty of scum here as opposed to

havingfitz-SK

.

Lynch

Kopherald

, and probably

havingfitz

D5; I think this is a town win.

VOTE: Kopherald

[Taly]

Spoiler: Vote Count Analysis Over Lynches

Official Vote Count 1.FINAL

Flavor Leaf (8)

- Kopherald, Almost50, texcat,

JaydragonKing

, Mathdino,

profii

,

Aneninen

,

Lalendra

,

JimmyUrineMoneyShot

(LYNCH)

Potential 3rd Scum on Flavor Lynch-

{Kopherald, Almost50, Mathdino, texcat}

Why Almost50 Probably Isn't Scum Here

; claimed doc, specifically before

Flavor

.

Why Mathdino Probably Isn't Scum Here

;

he, doomfeathers, and Luv

have been consistently placed in might-be scum territory with little contest.

Texcat

is probably town based on other, more confident reads.

Why Kopherald Could Be Scum

; voteparked on

Flavor's

slot since 158, but votes again... 627, even though he never unvoted.

Official Vote Count 2.4

JimmyUrineMoneyShot

(7) - havingfitz, Texcat,

Aneninen

, Ausuka, Almost50, Kopherald, Shadpearl [LYNCH]

Potential Scum on

Jimmy

Lynch- {

havingfitz (?)

,

texcat (?), Ausuka (?), Almost50 (?),

Kopherald (?)

,

Shadpearl (?)

}

Based on 6 people mislynching here; but there's only 2 non-townies left, this is a town-esque wagon.

I will say, my SK-guess and final-scum guess are both on this wagon, and so the other 4 are town in that reality.

Official Vote Count 3.5

profii (6)

- Almost50, Ausuka, texcat,

Creature

, Shadpearl,

Taly

[LYNCH]

Neither my scumreads;

havingfitz

or

Kopherald

are in here.

Almost50, Ausuka, texcat

have been on both scum and town lynches; actually makes me feel that they're town, because it wouldn't make sense to me for them to bus or resist a wagon to help provide discussion/information, and tells me they're a likely townbloc.

Shadpearl

is probably town as well, based on more confident reads.

*Notes*

Scum probably would not want to bus their last partner, and SK is less likely to vote here based on being incriminated over lynching a PR claim.

Kopherald

is most likely scum here

Havingfitz

is most likely SK here, and didn't vote

Flavor Leaf

.

[Taly]

Reasons On Taly's Individual Reads D4

The Remaining Townies

Ausuka

- Have consistently asked questions and have explained their reasons on the best approaches for town. Very centered on game solving and does not flow with the wind necessarily, because their reads are consistent and aren't fabricated. Townhunts and scumhunts.

Shadpearl

- ...Seriously cannot see how

Shadpearl-scum

is possible with

profii

. I sincerely doubt

Shadpearl

killed

JaydragonKing

,

Aneninen

, and

Creature

.... His response to

profii's

now confirmed-fakeclaim feels towny to me.

Almost50

- Doctors are weak in this setup, specifically upon lynching scum because scum have more elements to use.

Almost50

doesn't need to be NKed... The fact that

Almost50

is alive right now, tells me he's truly the final doctor. Even myself, alongside a portion of the playerlist, have expressed concern around

Almost50's

claim and its validity... I feel like he's alive to keep town guessing and create WIFOM/waffling.

Something_Smart

-

See NKed-Players Read Analysis.

texcat

-

See Vote Count Analysis.

Likely SK

havingfitz

...Aside from the Vote-Count Analysis and NKed-Players Read Analysis.

1)

*Reads D1 and D2*

Who?

2)

What are his reads?

3)

1097 - lol yay an unexplained vote to L-2.

Kind of townvibes because seems to be accurate with reads; but seems to be the most sensible option for committing the NKs and voting the way he has.

Scum

Kopherald

...Aside from the Vote-Count Analysis and NKed-Players Read Analysis.

1)

Literally did not change vote on D1 from

TheGoldenParadox

, even after

Flavor's

claim.

2)

Consistently states that

Ausuka

has no reasons for reads... but she's the most well-understood people in this game to me.

3)

Most likely to have bussed

profii

at some point, specifically because of his long, weakly explained read on

havingfitz

.

4)

Profii

sheeped

Kopherald

for... what reason?

5)

59 and 60, lol odd

Havingfitz and Kopherald

can both be not-town while trying to search for the SK/scum by versus-ing against each other

Probably can find more reasons for my thoughts here; but I genuinely believe that this game is solved unless one of these 2 flip town, and it's proven that I just suck at mafia.

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Kopherald
I liked this vote yesterday and I like it again today. Taly's analysis is good.

[Something_Smart]

Really? I'm a bit skeptical of that kind of NKA, since there were town PR's alive when those kills were made.

[Something_Smart]

Of course, with the caveat that I haven't read that much.
So you should probably not trust anything I say.

[texcat]

I agree. And without checking in detail, I'm not sure how accurate it is. For example, Sando's vote was on Ausuka yesterday, and I know he expressed suspicion of me, but Taly doesn't mention that.

[davesaz]

Official Vote Count 4.2

Kopherald (2) - Taly, Ausuka
Not Voting (6) - Almost50, havingfitz, Something_Smart, texcat, Kopherald, Shadpearl

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

(expired on 2018-04-27 17:00:00)

[Almost50]

VOTE: Kopherald

I like Taly's analysis

[Taly]

I am going to reply to

texcat and something_smart

with my replies/in-depth analysis later. But I need to go right now.

I'd prefer a hammer does not happen until I post again. Be back in a few hours.

[Taly]

Really? I'm a bit skeptical of that kind of NKA, since there were town PR's alive when those kills were made.

The only known claims in this game are:

Almost50

- First person to claim doc, D1, still alive.

Flavor Leaf

- Claimed/Is Doc; lynched D1.

profii

- Fakeclaimed Tracker; lynched D3.

So there's not a lot of strong evidence to suggest scum/SK kills were motivated based on PRs.

However,

scum (Kopherald)

was present on

Jimmy

and

Flavor's

lynches; the lynch-flipped docs, despite

Flavor'

s claim.

Spoiler: My Subjective Reasoning On The Analysis - STILL READ THIS

Scum would desire to lynch most claims; they can't confirm if it's truthful unless one of them fakeclaim.

Kopherald

has shown little consideration or discussion beyond the borderline-tunnel on

havingfitz

, the sketchy potential-buss on

profii

, and the discredit/misrep of

Ausuka

... the only claim here was a fakeclaim from

profii

.

Since it's understood that

Kopherald

is most likely the last buddy of

JaydragonKing and profii

;

Kopherald

likely positioned himself to lynch

profii

but went on just about every other opportunity to lynch outside of him.

...Because he'd know his buddy fakeclaimed.

Havingfitz (SK guess)

, lynched

Jimmy

D2 - who didn't claim doc, but flipped as one.

Spoiler: My Subjective Reasoning On The Analysis - STILL READ THIS

There's a lot of differing opinions on how SKs should play; but above everything, SKs should eliminate scum-threats for as long as possible, because this gives them a strong town argument, and also fulfills their wincon late-game.

Havingfitz's

longterm 1v1 with

Kopherald

fulfills this.

SK should townside, as noted - ironically - by

Creature

; it's possible a

Creature-kill

was motivated in distancing himself, or to kill-off

Creature

since he believed he might be the last scumbuddy.

((

Creature

was suspected throughout D3))

And since

JaydragonKing

was blatantly antitown in D1; killing him was a decent option to

havingfitz

. These two never really interacted; and made the NK seem unlikely to happen by

havingfitz

.

Another thing an SK thinks about instead of a normal scumteam; is that they're isolated scum. They can't use buddies, plans, or votes and wagons to help control discussion as scum do. Furthermore, PRs are useful to SKs because that gives them information to potentially lynch scum and people aside from themselves.

My view is;

SK-havingfitz

had more reasons to take out people scumreading him,

Creature and Aneninen

, above killing

scum (JaydragonKing)

after a

scumflip like (Profii)

.

So by N2; the necessity of scum/SK killing a PR is low compared to the reality where we didn't lynch PRs.
But-
Scum killing a PR who has also scumread them is not out of the realm of possibility either, the same means for a Vanilla Townie.

~~~

But even with this; there's

STILL

an argument for a

Lalendra-Sando

scum-kill based on a PR read, too.

Spoiler: Lalendra Possibly NKed Because of PR

Lalendra

- Aside from a failed mislynch target, voted by

profii

. 221 - I want to point you guys to

profii's

opening quotes D2:

Guess I'm this dayphase's mislynch target

Given we know which team made each NK, are you confident that scum killed Lal to create a mislynch and that she didn't just give off doc vibes.

I've not read Lal's ISO to see if there is some kind of crumb, but I think scum would get really lucky to be in a position to pick a PR target that also creates a mis-lynch, I'd expect them to have to go for 1 agenda or the other (assuming there was a crumb they picked up on ofc)

So the fact you think you've been setup quite early in the game-day, means yours will be the first ISO I review once I get a bit of time, consider this FOS for now.

I ISOed

Lalendra

, and replied with:

Guess I'm this dayphase's mislynch target

Given we know which team made each NK, are you confident that scum killed Lal to create a mislynch and that she didn't just give off doc vibes.

I've not read Lal's ISO to see if there is some kind of crumb, but I think scum would get really lucky to be in a position to pick a PR target that also creates a mis-lynch, I'd expect them to have to go for 1 agenda or the other (assuming there was a crumb they picked up on ofc)

So the fact you think you've been setup quite early in the game-day, means yours will be the first ISO I review once I get a bit of time, consider this FOS for now.

Lalendra

never gave a crumb IMO. If she did, it was extremely subtle. Something tells me that

Flavor Leaf

townreading her; alongside much of the other town, myself included, was what lead to her NK.

She was also probably mislynch bait D1, and it's possible scum thought she'd be easy to go after. Though, when that didn't happen, she was killed off.

Please, ISO me. I WANT people to engage with me.

I still stand by this;

Lalendra

didn't claim or crumb anything.

But

profii

, reiterating that

Lalendra

was a scumteam-kill; stated that she was lynchbait, and he thought she must've crumbed about her role.

Since

profii

was scumflip, and conducted the kill on

Lalendra

; it was probably to distance from

Lalendra

. It's also possible

Lalendra

was killed because

profii+buddies

thought she'd be a PR.

774 strengthens this line of thought.

Spoiler: Sando Possibly NKed Because of PR

Sando

I can spend another 45 minutes elaborating how scum could've easily perceived

Sando

as the true Tracker; given that

profii

was a known fakeclaim to them.

But I'm just going to point to these posts, and say that

Sando

had his own plan on how town should act; given he is truly town as Tracker, he probably had potential guilties, most likely on

profii

, due to his certainty of lynching scum here, but not wanting to go that route just yet.

Read through: 1136 - 1178, 1179 and 1180 - 1186 - 1188 - 1198 - 1256 - 1272

He probably wanted to guess a scumlynch D3 to confirm his hypothesis and potential guilties he already acquired. Mixed in with his reads on

Kopherald

and associative to

profii

, makes him a strong valid NK candidate in this manner.

No, I don't think you guys get it. Shadpearl has to be scum. There is no tracker CC.

Just...wow...

If the tracker thinks they're more important than a correct lynch, which they are most certainly not, that's on them. I'm not ever moving my vote unless a CC happens.

It's not about importance, it's about playing the hand that's dealt us in the best manner possible. I've literally laid out the entire plan and basically directed the SK kill, along with laid out what scum is likely to do. You're playing an open hand and you're refusing to engage. You're either incredibly lazy and shouldn't be playing, or you're scum/SK looking at the plan and worried about it.

VOTE: Ausuka

Same reasons as laid out with Texcat/Ausuka, but playing against town her without justification deserves the flip imo.

Yeah so we could rely on scum playing how they're expected to and get scum tomorrow while we probably mislynch today, or we could get scum today and potentially reduce the amount of nightkills we have to deal with tonight. Just lynching the guilty and then going back to a regularly scheduled program of scumhunting is the best play here IMO. No need to play games with the SK.

It's funny that you can't actually articulate why I'm wrong, just gonna go with "nah, CC or I'm parked here"

From the perspective of a tracker; I can completely understand

Sando's

initial dislike for a counterclaim, and can see how

Sando-town

would suspect

Ausuka

.

He knew

profii

fakeclaimed and was almost certainly scum, but he wanted to find his buddy.

Sando's

suspicion of

Ausuka

potentially baiting a CC seems to have been a good point for

scum-Kopherald

to kill

Sando

and WIFOM the playerlist about the townies suspicions.

I think

Ausuka

was an easy towny to misunderstand and suspect in this circumstance.

If this is true and

Kopherald

is the last scum; then

Sando's

scumread on him before his NK was not the sole purpose of killing him.

Kopherald

would've known about

profii's

fakeclaim, and would've believed

Sando's

reaction would likely be from the true Tracker.

Aneninen

- There's no argument here, but

Aneninen

was correct about

profii

, and most likely

havingfitz

as well. Furthermore, I haven't seen a post to suggest that

Aneninen

WASN'T killed off the pretense of being a PR-read to scum, but he seems to be a practical kill for SK and scum.

[Taly]

I agree. And without checking in detail, I'm not sure how accurate it is. For example, Sando's vote was on Ausuka yesterday, and I know he expressed suspicion of me, but Taly doesn't mention that.

I'm talking about the final reads given by

Creature

,

Aneninen

, and

Sando

; the main perspective scum/SK would have on their mental state going into the next day.

Sando

, from what I've understood, appeared to waffle on his read on you, and

Ausuka

based on this quote:

Scum and SK likely at havingfitz, Taly and Lil Uzi Vert.

I'm not believing Taly or LUV for scum or Fitzy for SK. Profii flip now says a lot, I think LUV and Kopherald have largely fencesat, LUV more than Kopherald, and

now Aus/Tex are throwing me off since unless Shad is SK they've definitely voted their buddy in a 1v1 at some point.

An SK looking at my plan from the outside was the only person who would look at possibilities instead of "this is scary", and that was Kopherald imo.

Still a better plan though.

Part of

Sando's

suspicion of

Texcat/Ausuka

, was an associative.

But with

profii-scumflip

; this is proven impossible.

So quite naturally,

Sando

is killed;

1)

Because he's no longer a viable piece to push a mislynch on

Ausuka/Texcat

.

2)

He can longer defend his townreads on

Taly/Luv

.

3)

Sando

, to scum, is definitively going after

Kopherald

and maybe

havingfitz

next.

4)

Shadpearl and Almost50

are leftover pieces, possibly because they've been shaded a lot in this game, but they're more likely town in the eyes of the scumteam... or at, an SK probability.

((But I don't believe it))

Literally, above

Sando's

game-strategy and reads; his death could've also been to serve in creating WIFOM on most of the townies.

It makes so much sense that

Sando

was NKed and flipped Tracker, and

Kopherald

is the top person to have done this.

[Taly]

VOTE: Kopherald

I like Taly's analysis

This is L-2 now

[texcat]

I agree with your conclusions about who the last two bad guys are, but your arguments have a very winey smell to me.

I'm town reading Ausuka, A50, and ShadPearl.
Probably town: Taly and Something (though who knows about this slot that's been replaced so many times!)
That leaves Fitz and KopHerald for scum.

VOTE: Fitz
voting here for the time being. I'd still like to hear from KopH.

[Taly]

I agree with your conclusions about who the last two bad guys are, but your arguments have a very winey smell to me.

I'm town reading Ausuka, A50, and ShadPearl.
Probably town: Taly and Something (though who knows about this slot that's been replaced so many times!)
That leaves Fitz and KopHerald for scum.

VOTE: Fitz
voting here for the time being. I'd still like to hear from KopH.

I don't understand that you agree with my conclusions but don't support the arguments...? Is that what you're saying?

Please explain.

I'm not compromising on a

havingfitz

lynch unless he's at least pushed to L-2.

I feel

Kopherald

is a better lynch because:

1)

There's more evidence and discussion that support him as the final scum, associated with

JaydragonKing

and

profii

.

2)

There's debatably more reasons behind him being scum in general, as opposed to

havingfitz

.

3)

Hitting a higher-likely scum-person is best in this scenario; because we cannot afford to have 2 NKs again.

4)

We also cannot afford mislynching right now, otherwise town will likely lose. I feel like my reasons for

Kopherald-scum

hold a greater accuracy than

havingfitz-SK

.

In general, while I think both are extremely, extremely likely the final 2 scum;

Kopherald

is like, 99% the last on the scum team in terms of my certainty.

Havingfitz

is about 90% the SK in terms of my certainty.

I fear that the longer this dayphase last, the more it will hurt town.

[Shadpearl]

I literally cannot understand a single thing Taly wrote. x_x To that end I'm abstaining from voting until Monday evening when I can really sit down and play archeologist.

[Taly]

I literally cannot understand a single thing Taly wrote. x_x To that end I'm abstaining from voting until Monday evening when I can really sit down and play archeologist.

:/

Kopherald

makes the most sense to me as the final scum, and

havingfitz

is my best guess for the SK. I have a decently confident feeling that everyone else is town, and I feel a

Kopherald

lynch is the best route for today.

If you don't understand something, then I'm free to answer questions.

[Taly]

Is this dayphase going to be:

"People stare while

Taly

Makes Up Half The Day's Content And Post Count"

?