Open 712: Elemental Large (Mafia win)

[texcat]

Taly, Don't you imagine that scum might have killed Sando because it would make KopHerald look guilty? That's the problem I have with your argument. I don't think that scum kill those who will make them look guilty. They'd rather make someone else look guilty.

[Something_Smart]

So there's not a lot of strong evidence to suggest scum/SK kills were motivated based on PRs.

I think there's pretty compelling evidence in the fact that (a) scumteams in general have a motivation to kill PR's and (b) the scum succeeded in killing several PR's.

[Something_Smart]

Hitting a higher-likely scum-person is best in this scenario; because we cannot afford to have 2 NKs again.
4) We also cannot afford mislynching right now, otherwise town will likely lose.

I disagree with your math here. If we mislynch then lynch correctly, then it goes to 3p LYLO. If we lynch correctly then mislynch, it goes to 4p MYLO, which isn't better.

I fear that the longer this dayphase last, the more it will hurt town.

wat

[Ausuka]

{Ausuka, Almost50, Shadpearl, Taly}- very much doubt there are scum in here
{texcat, Something_Smart}- maybe, but probably not
{havingfitz, Kopherald}- should be the lynchpool, in my opinion.

[Taly]

Taly, Don't you imagine that scum might have killed Sando because it would make KopHerald look guilty? That's the problem I have with your argument. I don't think that scum kill those who will make them look guilty. They'd rather make someone else look guilty.

It's possible, yes.

But with all the other information I've gathered, and what I expect to be the most likely scenario; I highly doubt it.

The thing is, if

Kopherald

didn't kill

Sando

, then who did? ...I'd like to hear an answer on this, even if you don't know who, because I really don't know who else could be the final scum at this point... I don't think this bulk of information via analysis generates solely through strategy on pinning a death onto someone.

Another thing is,

Kopherald

killing

Sando

is only a

FRACTION

of my argument onto

Kopherald

being the final scum. I'll gladly go above and beyond and make an interactions list with

Kopherald

, and go in depth with his personal gameplay here and expand on other points I've stated on my read over him.

Furthermore, I'm not entertaining that reality too much right now because that's literally just going to serve to waffle the town and create a divide. Plus, I sincerely feel; based off multiple means of analysis, and personal gut instinct, that I'm correct here.

So there's not a lot of strong evidence to suggest scum/SK kills were motivated based on PRs.

I think there's pretty compelling evidence in the fact that (a) scumteams in general have a motivation to kill PR's and (b) the scum succeeded in killing several PR's.

I'm just suggesting my subjective ideas here; the arguments that have led to my conclusions make sense to me.

Hitting a higher-likely scum-person is best in this scenario; because we cannot afford to have 2 NKs again.
4) We also cannot afford mislynching right now, otherwise town will likely lose.

I disagree with your math here. If we mislynch then lynch correctly, then it goes to 3p LYLO. If we lynch correctly then mislynch, it goes to 4p MYLO, which isn't better.

I fear that the longer this dayphase last, the more it will hurt town.

wat

My thinking here is;

If

Kopherald

flips as the final scum today, that grants validity to my thought process... so in my mind,

Kopherald-scumflip

now, will more likely verify a

havingfitz-SK

flip to me.

Keyword: More likely

I'm not willing to factor in mislynching right now; I'm simply voting to lynch who I think is most likely scum, and that's

Kopherald

.

Also, at this point in the game, we're not in MYLO, but we have a critical amount of information at our disposal to help us deduce people's alignments. We should use this time to confirm our current ideas instead of debating all the alternatives and finding reasons to seek fallacies in another person's argument.

Because I get that town wants to do that all the time; looking at every little pin needle, but that's not practical here.

Because that makes the narrative-script of town that much easier for scum to control, especialy when there are several townies who are decently confident in their reads as it is.

{Ausuka, Almost50, Shadpearl, Taly}- very much doubt there are scum in here
{texcat, Something_Smart}- maybe, but probably not
{havingfitz, Kopherald}- should be the lynchpool, in my opinion.

To expand on what I've stated to

Something_Smart

and

texcat.

..

If at least half of us in the game, or even more than half think that scum is definitively within

{Kopherald, havingfitz}

Where are the votes? Why would one person be more likely scum than the other?

^^^ These two questions need to be answered, and that's a stronger gamesolving standpoint than saying:

"I like

Taly's

analysis"
"But

Taly

, this one thing in your argument doesn't add up"

I appreciate the feedback; and honestly, you guys' responses have kind of helped me solidify my townread on you five:

{texcat, Something_Smart, Ausuka, Shadpearl, Almost50}

But I want the 2 questions above answered above everything.

[texcat]

We have not yet heard from either Fitz or KopH. I'd like to hear from them today before making a final decision on my vote.

[Ausuka]

@Taly; if you're asking who I think is SK and who is mafia, it doesn't really matter at this point; they're basically equivalent. Kopherald slot has been scummy IMO and fitz has been a massive lurksack, plus I get townvibes from the other players. My vote's on Kopherald, and right now, it looks like that's where I'm going to keep it until the day ends.

[Taly]

We have not yet heard from either Fitz or KopH. I'd like to hear from them today before making a final decision on my vote.

Brass

has posted outside of hydra on the site; so it's likely he's read up to yesterday on this thread. I don't know about

Kop

.

Havingfitz

was onsite April 13th last I checked, so he may or may not have known the day has changed.

In either case, neither person has posted in the game yet.

1 more day is about the maximum I'm willing to wait for them.

@Taly; if you're asking who I think is SK and who is mafia, it doesn't really matter at this point; they're basically equivalent. Kopherald slot has been scummy IMO and fitz has been a massive lurksack, plus I get townvibes from the other players. My vote's on Kopherald, and right now, it looks like that's where I'm going to keep it until the day ends.

Do you have any thoughts on

Kopherald-scum

and other people as town aside from the reasons I've listed?

[Ausuka]

only the stuff I said d2; the votehopping, the fact they tried to discredit me d2 in a nonsensical way, and I don't like the tone.

[Kopherald]

I've spoke with Brass a little bit over the past few days whilst we were waiting for day to come round. And we both said what was going to happen, and that it has happened. Scum have clearly seen there was suspicion aimed at us before the previous day ended, and have directed there kills to further strengthen that suspicion pointing to us.

We have also discussed a little bit, and both agreed scum is within Fitz/Ausuka and a outside chance of Texcat.

- Kop

[Ausuka]

sando and creature kills were probably scum hunting for the tracker.

[Almost50]

People keep talking about Tracker hunting when Sando claimed Tracker last day phase. Or am I imagining it?

I also would lynch texcat in a heartbeat, but I don't see many people willing to and I'm not going to push anything in this game after what happened in D1.

[Taly]

I've spoke with Brass a little bit over the past few days whilst we were waiting for day to come round. And we both said what was going to happen, and that it has happened. Scum have clearly seen there was suspicion aimed at us before the previous day ended, and have directed there kills to further strengthen that suspicion pointing to us.

We have also discussed a little bit, and both agreed scum is within Fitz/Ausuka and a outside chance of Texcat.

- Kop

I don't get your line of thinking here.

You state that the kills were to paint you as scum - which consisted of a portion of my argument around you being scum; but you say scum is within

Fitz/Ausuka

, and potentially

texcat

with no explanation from either head.

If you think I am even for a minute town; do you have

anything

to say about my posts about you, or what you think I

should

be paying attention to?

Plus the

texcat-possible-scum

suggestion seems like it came out of nowhere.

People keep talking about Tracker hunting when Sando claimed Tracker last day phase. Or am I imagining it?

I also would lynch texcat in a heartbeat, but I don't see many people willing to and I'm not going to push anything in this game after what happened in D1.

Can someone explain to me what is so scummy about

texcat

? I can kind of see why people might suspect her; but there's already 2 other people filling up the scumteam and SK slot to me, and

Kopherald's

response has not changed that.

Also,

Almost50

, can you elaborate on what about my analysis you like? Do you have any independent thoughts on

Kopherald-scum

and/or

havingfitz-SK

?

Another thing is;

Sando

didn't directly claim Tracker, he kept questioning the possibility to us. In hindsight, that makes sense he would be a Tracker; and another obvious reason as to why he was NKed, but still.

I feel like I've picked the information about the NK's and VC's like a lemon, squeezed out all the juices, and am now serving it to the playerlist with a message engraved in the plate labeled:

"Ask. Respond. Vote."

[Taly]

Ain't no sugar comin' out 'till scum's blood is stained over my wallposts.

[Almost50]

@Taly: I don't have much to say in way of explaining my SR on texcat. I'm just saying if it ain't Kopbrass it's texcat.

And I dunno.. it's been a while and he night took like forever, but I seem to remember I got the feeling it was Sando is the Tracker after I had spent the game starting D2 thinking it was you. Something he said though convinced me he tracked profii to a kill.

Fitz is hard to read for me. His playstyle -in general- is one that could fit a TPR (not applicable here), a VT who is busy IRL (fitz is almost always busy), a Mafioso who is "playing solo" (i.e. making sure he's not linked with the other 2), or the SK. He didn't even make one serious push on anyone for me to try and see if that would come from scum!him or Town!him.

Btw, the same applies to Kop (but it's not the same for brass, whom I do believe to be busy IRL for this current time).

Suffice it to say meta-reading fitz/Kop is useless, and brass has exceptional circumstances that make his lack of activity NAI. texcat is playing within her scum-range though.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not going to push anything in this game after what happened in D1.

do I want to know?

[havingfitz]

Post weekend check in. Catching up asap.

[Kopherald]

So, on the Taly case, I think lots of confirmation bias is going on. Taly truly believes we are scum, and any explanations we give to anything that is brought up has already been ignored to accentuate the conclusion.

Personally, that's why I'm not chomping at the bit to post here, it feels useless if people are just going to use something I've already spoken about with plenty of detail, like my lack of withdrawing the flavor leaf vote after his claim, to make a case and town's just going to follow the case. I've had my say, and people have shown a remarkable ability to ignore it and forget about it. I'm pretty sure this is an SK win at this point anyway because I think SK knows who the last scum is but scum doesn't know who the SK is.

I'll lay our vote down for Fitz here and move on because no matter how many times we post our case, it bending l becomes that we haven't posted a case on them and I'm tired of putting in efforts that are going to be ignored.

VOTE: Fitz

[Kopherald]

So, on the Taly case, I think lots of confirmation bias is going on. Taly truly believes we are scum, and any explanations we give to anything that is brought up has already been ignored to accentuate the conclusion.

Personally, that's why I'm not chomping at the bit to post here, it feels useless if people are just going to use something I've already spoken about with plenty of detail, like my lack of withdrawing the flavor leaf vote after his claim, to make a case and town's just going to follow the case. I've had my say, and people have shown a remarkable ability to ignore it and forget about it. I'm pretty sure this is an SK win at this point anyway because I think SK knows who the last scum is but scum doesn't know who the SK is.

I'll lay our vote down for Fitz here and move on because no matter how many times we post our case, it bending l becomes that we haven't posted a case on them and I'm tired of putting in efforts that are going to be ignored.

VOTE: Fitz

If you didn't get this from tone.

-Brass

[havingfitz]

So just some random non read-through based VCA musings from my phone....

I don't think (in order of conviction) that A50, Asuka or texcat are likely to be the last mafia based on their efforts towards profii.
I lean against Shad being the last mafia slightly based on their profii vote but moreso for profii's commitment towards Shad.
I lean least against Taly being the last mafia slightly based on their profii. I do think they are a decent candidate for bussing profii in combination with profii's brief, harmless, Taly vote yesterday.
Most likely to be the last mafia (in order of conviction) would be Kopherald, Something Special or the aforementioned Taly.

As for SKs...I think they are likely to be aggressive in their hunting for mafia (with town) but also not too bothered at anyone other than themselves being the eventual lynch. So I think there is a decent chance the SK is on both lynches. This filter would (in order of conviction) point to A50, texcat, Asuka and Shad.

To reiterate...

I think the last mafia (in order of conviction) is Kopherald, Something Special or the aforementioned Taly.
I think the sk (in order of conviction) is within A50, texcat, Asuka and Shad.

Further reading, and re-reading, as this day progresses will hopefully result in stronger reads for each scum.

[Almost50]

@fitz: And I think the SK would try to hunt down the last Mafia and redirect suspicion off themselves while actively NOT voting the person they

agree

is the last Mafioso.

[Almost50]

It's a classic tell, btw. You want Kop lynched but you don't want to be held responsible just in case he is Town, because if so:

1- Town will be even more suspicious of you, and
2- The last Mafioso may decide to off you based on them seeing you as a threat since you are now hunting them down

[Almost50]

Also very nice of you to have kept a lot of options for you to lynch in any case. EVEN if Kop flips Mafia you have 4 different targets to push vs only 2 to kill at night. If he flips Town, you have lined up 2 "less likely to be Mafia" suspects still, so you're on the safe side. I'd say LUV is your designated NK tonight as he's the only one you never even made mention of in that masterpiece of yours.

[Kopherald]

Also very nice of you to have kept a lot of options for you to lynch in any case. EVEN if Kop flips Mafia you have 4 different targets to push vs only 2 to kill at night. If he flips Town, you have lined up 2 "less likely to be Mafia" suspects still, so you're on the safe side. I'd say LUV is your designated NK tonight as he's the only one you never even made mention of in that masterpiece of yours.

Something Special is probably supposed to be Something Smart, who replaced LUV.

Fitz has just said that his lynch pool is anyone other than him.

*GASP* I'm shocked that he would do this./s

-Brass

[Almost50]

Alright then. I stand corrected. So fitz is FoSing everyone and their neighbor