Micro 789 - Alternating 9p - Mafia wins

[Iconeum]

why not ank/love?

@Cheeky, it does give us 2 conf town to work with. Both of which were being read as scummy.
Also gives 1 guaranteed town on D3. It's actually pretty good.

[CheekyTeeky]

Yeah it is good, I'm just frustrated that the cop claimed because you guys could've had 2 conf town or 1 guilty tomorrow. Now we go into tomorrow with max 1 conf. town.

[CheekyTeeky]

I mean I had my moment of suspicion with BV, but when I started ISO digging I was so set on Bu that I don't think I would've pushed BV to the point of claiming.

[Ankamius]

Well BuJaber is slightly less scum for going back on the love/me team read.

Anyways, this is my last post until I'm off work. Chill with the posts, seriously.

[Ankamius]

Love/me is insane, Icon.

[BuJaber]

why not ank/love?

@Cheeky, it does give us 2 conf town to work with. Both of which were being read as scummy.
Also gives 1 guaranteed town on D3. It's actually pretty good.

I've said it over and over.

It's because korina wanted to lynch love and love got frustrated by that. It didn't look like bussing.. what would be the motivation?

[BuJaber]

Well BuJaber is slightly less scum for going back on the love/me team read.

Anyways, this is my last post until I'm off work. Chill with the posts, seriously.

To clarify you/love was never my teamread. I just didn't read it carefully when icon posted it.

[BuJaber]

Please Ank can you just explicitly say you are not cop ? So there is no doubt.

[Iconeum]

Well BuJaber is slightly less scum for going back on the love/me team read.

Anyways, this is my last post until I'm off work. Chill with the posts, seriously.

What's the opposite of OMGUS? regarding the first part

Why would we chill? Deadline fast approaching, finally some good discussion and you are trying to stop that??

[BuJaber]

Mind you she says I'm only slightly less scum in a manner which allows her to do whatever. She can keep the vote on me or flip it to someone else and claim she changed her mind.

Looks like it really is cheeky lynch today > Ank lynch tomorrow > thank kmd for it's patience > go home

[BlackVoid]

@Iconeum, how likely would you say the following teams are:

Ankamius/Lovebird
Ankamius/CheekyTeeky
Ankamius/GreenLiquid
Lovebird/CheekyTeeky
Lovebird/GreenLiquid
CheekyTeeky/GreenLiquid

[BlackVoid]

If BuJaber is scum, it has to be with Ankamius. I think we can safely rule out BuJaber/Lovebird and BuJaber/CheekyTeeky teams. I think we can rule out Lovebird/GL (GL pushed Lovebird quite a bit) and possibly BuJaber/GL (they suspected each other quite a bit).

It really comes down to:

Ankamius/Lovebird
Ankamius/CheekyTeeky
Ankamius/GreenLiquid
Ankamius/BuJaber

Lovebird/CheekyTeeky
CheekyTeeky/GreenLiquid

I don't have much of a reason to rule out the last two teams but I'll re-read the game and see. Ankamius's slot has always been null to scummy. Christopher's Not_Mafia push was just directed at an easy target. Korina's posts were pretty bad. Ank's reads don't make any sense.

I want to lynch Ankamius I think.

[Ankamius]

Here's the problem with that: if you were scum knowing that you're in a significant amount of danger of being lynched and you find things to attack, would you point them out and then never reference them again?

I don't see why Lovebird would have felt under considerable pressure at 699. Scum can benefit from shading a slot without taking a stand on it, so I don't see why poking at Bu and then leaving would be town-indicative.

You're right that in the event on a Bu/Love team, it doesn't seem likely that Bu would be content to leave Love like this without applying pressure elsewhere, but I'm not convinced that scum!Love in this state would

necessarily

start going all out to defend herself. This is partly why Cheeky's shift over the past couple of pages is worrying me a little.

Has her play changed at all when she started gaining suspicion? You mentioned that her play under pressure has been the same as the rest of her play this game. If anything, doesn't that indicate that she's not having a self-preservation instinct kicking in?

No, I don't think her play changed much after facing suspicion. I feel like she might be the kind of player who doesn't come out swinging even under lynch pressure -- though, unfortunately, I didn't find any scum games in her history where she was facing down a lynch so I can't really argue for or against this from a meta standpoint. If I had to put it succinctly, Lovebird seems like a player more likely to respond to pressure with incredulity and light sarcasm instead of a lengthy rebuttal. You can see this in her ISO in a few places shortly after people pressure her or cast doubt on her.

Ok, these answers are acceptable. Let's shift gears a bit and go a different route: You mentioned before that she was significantly more scummy in day one. What were the top 1-2 points that indicate this?

[Ankamius]

I skimmed from the start of day 2 and got to the end of page 35 and I don't really understand the Love wagon. She looks more town than anybody else right now.

Hi thanks for replacing. Could you please go over your town read of love so others can see it?

This question from Cheeky is really townie. I cannot see why scum would ever bother to ask that.

That question is actually NAI. It's inevitably going to be asked by

somebody

, so there's not a whole lot of point either way outside of starting a dialogue as town or setting up the way to pocket me as scum.

I thought that Lovebird was already town and I've already given my thoughts on her scumreads; it didn't affect my read negatively.

Icon I didn't need to get a read on at all, I'd already determined he's conftown.

Please give us your towncase for me as well, because I was about to be lynched before claiming. Most were scumreading me. What did you see?

Nothing. I was asked about the doc claim before I started reading anything and glanced at that same page enough to know it was genuine. It doesn't take much logic from there to get to conftown.

[Ankamius]

Considering korina and ank's play if love is town that slot is so obv scum it's rediculous.

I want to know in what universe does this make any sense whatsoever, because this looks like it got pulled squarely out of your ass.

[Ankamius]

Actually go ahead lynch me. Let's see how you avoid getting lynched after that. I'd love to see that oscar winning performance.

The ank replacement looks awfully similar to the way cheeky replaced in too. Replace in, post a lot, defend the leading wagon, scumread the person leading the wagon.

I posted what my one issue with your play up to that point was and outright stated that I was PoEing you because of the amount of townreads afterwards. Neither was addressed by you, nor why that sequence of events would indicate scum over town.

[Ankamius]

Yeah, fact 2 was part of the reason as well. I wanted to maximize the time we have. What do you think of the way Ankamius townread Lovebird. I've been trying to understand his read but really can't figure out why he's townreading her and it's really vague. Both his Lovebird and Cheeky townreads are vague and the latter actually came at a point when Cheeky made her scummiest posts.

A lot of my reads appear that way because I motivation/tone-read.

The question I want to ask you now is what this indicates for me as scum, I'm specifically talking about why I would potentially close off a vote possibility on the one that is down in the worst case scenario that the other is my partner. Even if it's optimal to try to lynch off of that, the situation is perilous enough without adding extra complications.

[Ankamius]

All I know is I'm town.

If you need convincing re read my posts after the doc claim with the knowledge that I am VT baiting scum into killing me while I thought cop claim was a bad move. And then see how I instantly don't counter claim when I understood void's point.

Look at my posts pre NM hammer. Look at me stubbornly arguing against you, against love, against cheeky, against void, against NM, against GL.

Didn't really go against rask much but he was townreading me before he got lynched. I wouldn't NK him.

That leaves lurker slot Ank. And that is why if love flips town he is auto lynch first. Then y'all decide either me or cheeky if we're both alive.
And if love flips scum I'm cleared.


Pedit - I'm getting paranoid that it is but love flipping town is whay gurantees cheeky/ank that is why love has to be lynched first.

I've read this post 3-4 times and I still have no idea what this is trying to say.

The best interpretation I have is that I'm the next lynch upon Love-town because... BuJaber didn't argue against my slot on day one? ...What?

[BlackVoid]

I'm getting paranoid that it is but love flipping town is whay gurantees cheeky/ank that is why love has to be lynched first.

I think you're being overly optimistic if you assume that if Lovebird is lynched and flips town, people will just follow you on the next two lynches as opposed to... lynching you for instance. If you're town and want to win, you should be trying to figure out the scumteam now as opposed to try to set up multiple lynches contingent on Lovebird's townflip and expect that it'll all go according to plan.

[Ankamius]

Love flip sorts Ank.

I need to adjust the lynch order if love is scum it should actually be cheeky then GL then Ank.

You see if love flips town Ank is 100% scum, with cheeky being the most obvious partner.

If love flips scum it doesn't fit that korina slot was bussing. It also doesn't explain why Ank went against the korina read of love. Korina came in wanting to lynch love hard. Ank comes in pretty much conftowning love. This is sloppy play if love is her partner. Therefore love =/= ank.

So that raises the question is there a chance both love and Ank are town? That would mean Ank is so sure of love town based on what exactly? And it would meam that GL and cheeky are literally the scumteam.
Well then why would cheeky be worried about lylo with me and GL? So no. That can't be the team. GL is pretty much conftown at this point.

I don't understand this post at all.

First of all, why would you reach the conclusion that cheeky is genuinely worried instead of at least humoring that it's fake?
Second of all, what exactly are you referring to by 'GL is pretty much conftown at this point'?

This entire post reeks of fake analysis to fit a narrative.

[Ankamius]

Can you just stop being dumb and realise it's a 1v1 with me and Bu today. I'm fine with it if you don't believe me but you can't vote Love because that mean Bu wins at LyLo tomorrow. He has hard pocketed you Ico, and if I'm right that the team is Bu/Ank then they will have enough votes with yours to win. So please do me a favour and vote for me so that he doesn't have me as the mislynch to win tomorrow.

After this post, I'm starting to wonder if it's not a Cheeky/BuJaber scumteam.

[BlackVoid]

So that raises the question is there a chance both love and Ank are town? That would mean Ank is so sure of love town based on what exactly?

The flaw in the reasoning here is that if Ank is town, that says nothing about Lovebird's alignment. He's just as likely to have a townread on town with poor reasoning as he is to have a townread on scum.

[Ankamius]

I'm in a bit of a rut since I have two somewhat strong reads (Lovebird and GreenLiquid both town) and the rest of the impressions I got don't feel right with them.

I don't think I can get a read on BuJaber until I have enough of a read on the gamestate to be able to fit him somewhere within it. I did see one post that pinged me as scum, but it's not a strong ping and I eventually started filtering out all his walls because they feel like noise after a while.
CheekyTeeky is somewhat similar, but for the opposite reason. There was one thing I noticed that pinged scum about her... but beyond that it's hard to get an impression of disinterested-town or coasting-scum.
Icon is 100% town, even without CCs.
You fit snugly into a class of player that I'm well aware results in a town-lean bias, so I'm taking that read at face value until I either have a better picture of what's going on or I have more concrete things to get reads from in a method that I'm better adept at getting reads from.

Is there any of those three slots you feel strongly about? I can go more into Love too if really needed, but there's not a whole lot of detail I can go into with it.

Let's see what we have here.
I'm gonna assume you put yourself as town, together with Love and Green. Later in the post I am a conftown, but I'm not in your townreads.

That's 4 out of 7 players town. No mention of Blackvoid, but with the copclaim I doubt you will scumread him.
So 5 out of 7 town. That means you have NO choice but to put your scumread in Buj and Cheeky as a team.

That also means you think the last 5 or so pages are scum v scum? Right?

First, I don't have you directly in my townreads because I don't town read your play, I townread your claim.

Second of all, what makes you so sure that it can't be SvS?

BuJaber has his plan set already for a win assuming Lovebird gets lynched (which is still likely at that stage). He doesn't need to do anything more than that since all he needs is to drown everyone else like he's been doing today.
Cheeky's plan is win-win in the sense that either nobody takes her seriously (very likely) and it's a huge distancing act that will probably be shelved tomorrow so she can help lynch me, or she

is

taken seriously (very unlikely) and she sacrifices herself to put BuJaber into a much better spot to win despite needing an extra day.

It's not farfetched if you really think about the why and how it fits with BuJaber's play the past several pages.

[Ankamius]

I'm following along roughly, but I'll be a bit before I can go into depth.

VOTE: BuJaber

Most confident on this by far.

I think ur scum that made a mistake by clearing too many players in your catchup.

Buj is literally the only one you can vote here. You don't even bother to post reasons except 'confidence'.

I was at work.

EDIT: She please, BlackVoid. I've noticed that a couple people have been referring to both myself and Cheeky as he throughout the last several pages as well; I understand that it's more difficult in more tense parts of the game, but please be careful about pronouns.

[Ankamius]

Well BuJaber is slightly less scum for going back on the

love/me team read

.

Anyways, this is my last post until I'm off work. Chill with the posts, seriously.

I was actually referring to the love-town me-scum thing, but it looks like I misunderstood it anyways.

This is why you don't post at work.

Well BuJaber is slightly less scum for going back on the love/me team read.

Anyways, this is my last post until I'm off work. Chill with the posts, seriously.

What's the opposite of OMGUS? regarding the first part

Why would we chill? Deadline fast approaching, finally some good discussion and you are trying to stop that??

I'm mainly wanting BuJaber to chill the hell out because he's been posting the same post in different forms for the past 5-6 pages. Basically, no it's not really that good of a discussion considering we hadn't had one of the conftowns on until now, two of the high-PoI slots (Love+me) were not around, and the top non-conftown townread slot (GreenLiquid) isn't around either.