Open 722: Red Flag [Endgame]

[northsidegal]

Votecount 1.13

ActionDan (1):

pisskop 24

TheBrie (5):

ActionDan 97, Killthestory 111, callforjudgement 608, teacher 609, Creature 617

Killthestory (1):

Hiraki 103

Fumuki (1):

BlueBloodedToffee 147

BlueBloodedToffee (1):

northsidestory 554

Not voting (4):

Archwing, TheBrie 513, Fumuki 607, ceejayvinoya 622

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day One deadline is in (expired on 2018-04-29 20:23:59).

[Creature]

I just don't understand the part where TheBrie asks me to convince her she is scum.

[teacher]

I don't have much to post but I atleast got fairly decent reads.

Care to explain [post]359[/[post], scumming Kill and Brie together. I can see one but not both.

[Creature]

I don't have much to post but I atleast got fairly decent reads.

Care to explain [post]359[/[post], scumming Kill and Brie together. I can see one but not both.

It's possible for one of the scum to decide to go solo.

[Creature]

Actually, gonna delay this day a bit more:

UNVOTE:

[teacher]

It's possible for one of the scum to decide to go solo.

Solo is different from advancing the town's wincon, no?

[Fumuki]

Creature and BBT are pretty much town probably, the way that Creature is trying to solve the game while posting what's in his head is a extremely good sign. If he had scum motivation to hop on TheBrie wagon he most certainly wouldn't unvote now this quickly.

[teacher]

and BBT

?

[Fumuki]

Creature, as I now trust you and am too unmotivated to keep playing putting much effort let me open some good info with you.

KTS and Hiraki are players that as scum practice AtE. That fight of the two earlier is extremely suspicious although it's too possible to see town motivations. In the scum game of KTS that I linked, he do the exact same over-reaction to his scummate. If KTS flips scum, it's wise to lynch Hiraki.

Here are some of my thoughts to push a lynch on you btw:

Spoiler:

My theory made even more sense if you were scum. As you were saying "there's the possibility of a KTS + TheBrie" scum team and Hiraki was agreeing with you. In other words, KTS would probably be killed tonight and leave you guys in a good position, plus day 2 lynch could easily be TheBrie. However...I was expecting an attempt to create a wagon on someone else from the fourth wolf or from someone from the group...and since it didn't happen and KTS kept yelling at TheBrie, teacher and me. Oh, but KTS and Hiraki can still be pretty much related.

@Teacher, I already explained the read you're in doubt back there, I honestly have no desire to explain it again.

[teacher]

@Teacher, I already explained the read you're in doubt back there, I honestly have no desire to explain it again

Just to confirm, you are referring to 332.

As a more general note, Fumuki-san, I hope you dont get fully bitten by the LA-bug infecting this game. While I still have trouble sorting your playstyle and alignment, you have advanced the game almost alone in getting substantive information from the board, and from the metas. I for one truly appreciate it; even as I have been annoyed by it from moment to moment, it always rings truer upon reflection. The Brie contradiction is a great example. I found your style of pointing it out somewhat annoying and pedantic, but it would have taken me another day of separation from the board to realize it. So I hope you keep at it, and want to acknowledge it.

[ceejayvinoya]

Fumuki and teacher, both town.
creature probably town.

I take it were lynching between KTS and TheBrie today?

[Fumuki]

@Teacher, I already explained the read you're in doubt back there, I honestly have no desire to explain it again

Just to confirm, you are referring to 332.

As a more general note, Fumuki-san, I hope you dont get fully bitten by the LA-bug infecting this game. While I still have trouble sorting your playstyle and alignment, you have advanced the game almost alone in getting substantive information from the board, and from the metas. I for one truly appreciate it; even as I have been annoyed by it from moment to moment, it always rings truer upon reflection. The Brie contradiction is a great example. I found your style of pointing it out somewhat annoying and pedantic, but it would have taken me another day of separation from the board to realize it. So I hope you keep at it, and want to acknowledge it.

T-thanks t-teacher-san...!!

You can be simply trying to pocket me but I don't know if you would want me to actually be active since KTS and I before were in good terms however I still pushed his wagon. Well...this time I'll let myself be pocketed, it sounds kinda towny honestly..!!

[Fumuki]

Fumuki and teacher, both town.
creature probably town.

I take it were lynching between KTS and TheBrie today?

Honestly, the more I think about it, the worse it seems to lynch these two today.

If they're town we can leave them to later, if they're scum as we'll lynch them afterwards mafia will probably kill them.

If anyone is still wondering, each time mafia kills one of their own member, Town gets another lynch, as of now Town has 3 lynchs opportunities without any mafia dying. Leaving "easy to lynch targets" for later in this setup specifically isn't a bad idea. It's better to try to sort a little more some other players.

Oh, and even if the common suspects don't die, don't be afraid to lynch them later. It can pretty much be scum trying to use WIFOM. But as of today, I think it's better to vote somewhere else.

And don't forget that as the days go and no Mafia is killed, they start to immensely consist of the majority. Hold yourself in something solid late own, don't go with wagons at all.

[teacher]

I take it were lynching between KTS and TheBrie today

Thats my read from the early activity, though Id push for consideration of one of the low-posting slots (e.g., Arch) once more information is gained as well. Since you were one of the earlier CFJ town-reads, and I see you as town as well, I wonder what you think of joining a block?

[Fumuki]

Okay, let's try doing it. Teacher and Creature, do you want to form a temporary town block to sort some people?

You see, my homework would be meta reading some people but I ended up not doing it at all. We can partly distribute the playerlist to each player to sort and afterwards give their thoughts.

We'll decide who gets which player based on the probability of them not being scum partners. Particularly I think it's a good idea but some people don't believe in meta. They think that in different games people play differently and that's totally correct, however the truth is that you can get some general idea of that person line of reasoning, personality and other important traits. See for example Ellibereth-san, the winner of the paragon title (scumcatcher) of this year, that uses this tactic.

Hm...said all that I don't see Creature doing this kind of thing though...well, it doesn't hurts asking. Then, anyone in?

[TheBrie]

Creature can be town now. He's trying but it feels like town trying. Agreed though that his reads aren't great. This game has been hard, and I'm obviously having trouble sorting people myself.I'm not catching associations.

Other than ActionDan and KTS who stayed my wagon has been different the two times. Noit sure what that means.

I'll try to organize my thoughts into a neat list, but need to explain them first.

BBT hasn't done much since his push on Fumaki. I don't think it was good reasoning, but That's null.
ActionDan is townish, but hasn't said enough.
CeeJ has been kind of coasting, but seems townish outside of that slip.
Fumaki's explantion for what he's doing reassured me again and I don't feel worried anymore.
Hiraki is mostly poking back at people, and hasn't posted reads much. I could probably get them from his posts, but I'm too lazy to look at them out of ISO.

Fumaki just mentioned a reaction between Hiraki and KTS. They have some interaction, and I suppose it could be scummy, but I'm really not seeing it. Unexplained scum read on KTS from Hiraki, then KTS says he's town and then says he's a deep wolf, then they argue some more. It's probably not bothering me because I already think KTS is more likely town. Also I would think those kinds of reaction would be more likely in a game with no day talk.

Story has been kind of lurky. Feels clear, but hasn't' said enough to get a strong read. I do not understand the vote on BBT. What does 'one of the worse votes' mean?
Pisskop needs more focus on him. I'd be suspicious if it hadn't been said that he always lurks. He has essential said nothing all game.
I can't get rid os my uneaase around Teacher, but my head tell me he's not been acting scummy.
Archwing is obv null.

Now suppose this:

CFJ, KTS and creature as town,
ActionDan, Fumaki and Ceej, as secondary town,

That leaves Story, Pisskop, Archwing, BBT and Hiraki. And those are not scummy in my head. There might be a couple between them, but not all of them. So I'm missing the real scum.

Pedit: I'll adress the posts that have come up since I started this in another post.

[Fumuki]

I accept the block teacher-san, but I'm sorry to say that I can't fully trust in CFJ. Depending on what we'll be doing I can go along though, it's not the case where I'm actively scum reading him.

[Fumuki]

No, I don't feel like posting all evidence right now (I can post if someone asks nicely) but Hiraki and KTS interaction can totally be AtE. I'm saying it because both of them use this kind of thing and KTS especially use it pretty early to distance themselves from the partner (see the scum game of KTS that I linked back there). If Hiraki flips scum, hit KTS. If KTS flips scum, hit Hiraki. It's a extremely good probability.

By the way, one of the reasons I don't think both TheBrie and KTS is scum is because he already over-reacted with Hiraki and the way of bussing of KTS is getting all emotional. It's extremely unlikely it's bussing, but one of them could be scum, sure.

[TheBrie]

It's possible for one of the scum to decide to go solo.

hw could going solo evr be a good idea in a game like this?

I just don't understand the part where TheBrie asks me to convince her she is scum.

It's about the same as when you asked Fumuki to scumcase you.

Fumuki and teacher, both town.
creature probably town.

Care to explain you reads? I don't disagree, but it would be nice to know where you're coming from. I notice you didn't mention CFJ there. Thoughts on him?

[TheBrie]

@Fumuki I think I understand you. What does AtE mean?
I understand bussing is a bad idea, and doesn't make sense, here but I do't entirely follow what you said about KTS. Is he emotional when he's bussing?
I'll read the game.

[TheBrie]

@Fumuki What post did you link the game in? I haven;t found it yet.

[teacher]

Wow that was a flurry of posts to respond to:

@Fumuki-san 637. I somewhat agree. I definitely agree on getting pressure on more positions. But I disagree on not lynching an obvious scum. Sure, scum can kill them, leaving the town free. But getting to 2 is as simple as 1+1, so I find the tradeoff (a free night for town) to be more expensive than your post suggests.

@Fumuki-san 639. Im in for reading one meta. But to be clear, my question was to CJ, not creature. CJ is higher in my townreads than creature, but creature's recent posts have made me inclined that way as well. Is there a reason you redirected it (not that I mind)?

@Brie 640 "that slip" has been explained multiple multiple times as town, and your misread. Did you miss this? Do you not care? Or do you disagree? The post as a whole feels like trying to pocket the board. You need four scum reads, but you only have 0.25.

@Fumuki-san 641. Excellent and somewhat distressing response. Excellent because I didnt expect you to want to be in a block given your play style (why I hadnt asked). Distressing because of the doubt in CFJ. He was the early townread whose repeat made me doubt you. What has changed for you?

PEDIT: AtE - Appeal to Emotion

[Fumuki]

@Fumuki I think I understand you. What does AtE mean?
I understand bussing is a bad idea, and doesn't make sense, here but I do't entirely follow what you said about KTS. Is he emotional when he's bussing?
I'll read the game.

AtE at least from what I know means something like (I don't know the exact name) "bussing with emotional over reaction", that means that they would disagree with personal insulting, exactly like the KTS vs Hiraki thing was. It started from a silly thing, escalated and afterwards dissipated. Plus, the two players do that as scum. I'm repeating, if one flips scum, hit the other.

Let's suppose for a moment now that KTS actually is bussing you, he would say to you over-react and push him back, and wouldn't keep yelling on you at all probably. Even if this was the strategy, some deepwolf would push some thing of scheme, like pushing another wagon, killing one of you tonight and getting one of you to a safe position but...like, it totally doesn't seems like that. Plus, the possible deepwolf, Creature (I explained it in one of my posts before), actually for me at least it's almost town locked. He doesn't seem like someone that would act that way...again, if I'm misreading Creature it's already all doomed.

Then, after all that, I've some basis to say that

probably

isn't bussing. If fpr example the deepwolfs are in the lurkers, my theory loses a little of credibility, although even so it's improbably.

[Fumuki]

@Fumuki What post did you link the game in? I haven;t found it yet.

here:
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=67549&start=75

His partner is MariaR and Z-something, you can find the scum private topic on the begin or in the end of the game, there they plan the AtE thing.

[teacher]

@TheBrie: Id also be interested in a defense/response to 608 and 621. I know you said you tend not to care about early wagons, but this is twice that you've made L-2 and if town it would help the board if you can cogently defend some of the issues.