Open 722: Red Flag [Endgame]

[northsidegal]

Votecount 1.22

ActionDan (1):

pisskop 24

TheBrie (2):

ActionDan 97, Hiraki 703

BlueBloodedToffee (1):

northsidestory 554

ceejayvinoya (4):

BlueBloodedToffee 695, Fumuki 884, Killthestory 923, Archwing 975

Killthestory (3):

teacher 818, ceejayvinoya 850, callforjudgement 854

Not voting (2):

TheBrie 513, Creature 629

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day One deadline is in (expired on 2018-04-30 20:23:59).

[teacher]

Wow. So little advancement, but so much talk. Im going to ignore all of today's posts from related players (Fumuki, Kill, CFJ, me), and focus on the contributions of the non-aligned players (Hiraki, Arch, BBT).

Y'all have made it pretty clear that only two wagons will go through today: CeeJay or Fumuki. Im actually fine with that.

Now, one of those wagons has to be driven by scum. So lets see whose driving what wagon:

• CeeJay: BBT was there, but the impetus is being driven by Kill+Fumuki
• Fumuki: Im driving it, and presuming CFJ and possibly CeeJay will join it.

I have already provided the case that Kill and Fumuki are clearly coordinating. I tried, but could not provide a case that CFJ and CeeJay were coordinating. 977. I challenge you to make a case that CFJ/CeeJay AND I are coordinating over the course of the game. If you cant, ask yourself, which one is the wagon more likely being built by scum for a mislynch? The one with players coordinating over the course of the game, or the one without it?

Seriously, I challenge the nonaligned players to answer two questions. (I dont want to hear from our active players. Do you own analysis):

• If you think Fumuki was NOT clearly associated with Brie (saving her lynch by any argument necessary and driving counterwagons) and Kill PRIOR TO LAST NIGHT, explain why not?
• If you think CeeJay WAS clearly associated with two players (CFJ and me) PRIOR TO LAST NIGHT, explain why?

If this exercise winds up with you agreeing that Fumuki has more associatives, why wouldnt you lynch him? VOTE: Fumuki-san.

One final note, it is IMPERATIVE that one wagon go through. If we are close to deadline, I will hammer or jump on a CeeJay wagon. When he flips town, remember the team that I tried to convince you of. To avoid a D3 loss, scum must self-kill n1 and n2. Put another way, in this scenario, when CeeJay flips town, make the following lynch list irrevocable: 1. Fumuki, 2. KTS, 3. Fumuki. That creates D3 start at 8:1.

[TheBrie]

Got one minute here.

@teacher Do you realize we have plurality (majority at end of day) lynches? Your post there indicated you might not. A lynch will go through.

I can't take much of other people's analysis since it's made assuming I'm scum, but a thought occurred to me. What if Fumuki was trying to stop my wagon so he would look good when I flip town? As in, he knows. Failing my lynch going through he's prepared to lynch me later. Which is a weird move, but not incomprehensible.

VOTE: Fumuki

[callforjudgement]

As previously explained, I am OK with this wagon. (It's also clear that the KTS wagon won't go through today, much though I'd like it to.)

VOTE: Fumuki

[callforjudgement]

-Lynches will occur when a majority (>50%) is reached. If no majority is reached before deadline, the day will end in a no-lynch

I also can't see anything in the setup's own page (Red Flag (Open Setup)) that suggests that plurality lynches should be in use in this setup (i.e. the mechanics post is probably not a mistake). This is not a surprise, as the setup was designed by mith, who AFAIK dislikes plurality lynches, and they aren't required to make this setup work.

[Fumuki]

Got one minute here.

@teacher Do you realize we have plurality (majority at end of day) lynches? Your post there indicated you might not. A lynch will go through.

I can't take much of other people's analysis since it's made assuming I'm scum, but a thought occurred to me.

What if Fumuki was trying to stop my wagon so he would look good when I flip town? As in, he knows. Failing my lynch going through he's prepared to lynch me later

. Which is a weird move, but not incomprehensible.

VOTE: Fumuki

You're seriously trying to imply that

alone

I tried to stop your wagon when I knew that I would be frowned upon?

This coordinated voting is just too much, and your reason TheBrie, is the

most shitty

one. If you know you're town, you should understand that your wagon was scum driven and therefore try looking somewhere else to lynch, CJ even was the one to put you in L-1, however now you're voting

me

?

Why CFJ asked previously by the way plan clearly if I

"thought"

you and

KTS

were town or not when I had repeated it again and again?

I'll give some minutes for you to get your

ass here

and explain it but let me tell you that if you're town!TheBrie, you aren't only being only a lynchbait however now is voting in who

prevented

a scum driven lynch. What the hell are you doing here?

[callforjudgement]

@Mod: Prod on pisskop?

Also, I'll be V/LA for the next 24 hours, possibly a bit longer.

[Fumuki]

Hmm...what a interesting development...anyway, don't hammer me before I make

a certain post.

After that, maybe it's actually optimal if I'm lynched here to prove my innocence and you guys lynch the

real scums

.

Hint: The very much probably scum team is thinking that this game is almost a White Flag setup . But it isn't. Four is different than three.

To all the pieces become part of a big puzzle, there's only two assumptions from now on I say:

1. This town is already hopeless(not that I blame you guys!) and tunneling in the wrong direction.

2. Scums are

playing with fire

by

gambling

and if town listen me after I presumably

flip town

, maybe they are going to get

burned

, although I still can't pin point exactly some members.

[teacher]

And Fumuki gives away the game. The Brie is the key to the puzzle. Filter the entire game for Brie, and:

1. Assume Brie is town, and the wagon on her was scum motivated:

• Kill starts 1st Brie Wagon with second vote. (111)
• Ceejay disclaims interest. (215)
• Fumuki points out a contradiction (316).
• Kill tries to scum me and Brie together, and I disclaim interest (333, 339),
• CFJ Nulls the spot and I do. (463, 464),
• Fumuki makes a longer case about a second contradiction. (480)
• Only then do I and CFJ join.

The original motivation comes from Kill and Fumuki, not CeeJay or even CFJ. CFJ (and my) Brie cases follow Fumuki's by 100s of pages.

2. Assume Brie is scum: Scum must be willing to bus their own and put town within one lynch of their wincon, because CeeJay put Brie at -1. OR scum is not willing, and will do anything to stop lynch - a la Fumuki.

However you slice the Brie's actual alignment, the different role played by Fumaki and CeeJay in her wagons make their alignment plain.

[Fumuki]

And Fumuki gives away the game. The Brie is the key to the puzzle. Filter the entire game for Brie, and:

1. Assume Brie is town, and the wagon on her was scum motivated:

• Kill starts 1st Brie Wagon with second vote. (111)
• Ceejay disclaims interest. (215)
• Fumuki points out a contradiction (316).
• Kill tries to scum me and Brie together, and I disclaim interest (333, 339),
• CFJ Nulls the spot and I do. (463, 464),
• Fumuki makes a longer case about a second contradiction. (480)
• Only then do I and CFJ join.

The original motivation comes from Kill and Fumuki, not CeeJay or even CFJ. CFJ (and my) Brie cases follow Fumuki's by 100s of pages.

2. Assume Brie is scum: Scum must be willing to bus their own and put town within one lynch of their wincon, because CeeJay put Brie at -1. OR scum is not willing, and will do anything to stop lynch - a la Fumuki.

However you slice the Brie's actual alignment, the different role played by Fumaki and CeeJay in her wagons make their alignment plain.

HAHAHAHA DON'T MAKE ME LAUGH.

I can be wrong here and if I'm, I'll apologize after the game, but you need to understand how much sense what I'm going to say makes.

You say that TheBrie is the key to the game?

Exactly, Teacher.

SHE'S THE KEY TO THE

WHITE FLAG GAMBIT

HAPPENING HERE.

[Fumuki]

Scum now will probably put pressure to lynch me, DON'T HAMMER IN ANY HYPOTHESIS.

I'll gladly accept if after I say what I need to say I'm lynched. But never before.

[Killthestory]

fumuki is obvious town lmao. im gonna laugh at whoever was on that wagon end game.

btw notice thebrie, cfj, and teacher all vote fumuki simoultaneously. this is after i locked a wolf out of them.

im a god.

[Fumuki]

These guys thinking I still didn't notice what is going on here...

[Fumuki]

KTS, AND I EVEN DID GAVE YOU A TOWN-GOOD-BOY STAR, HOLY SHIT MEN.

[Fumuki]

HOWW YOU DAREHHH

[Fumuki]

CJ is town btw. I'll unvote here for now, post what I'm talking about and DON'T FUCKING HAMMER ME MAN, I'LL ACCEPT BEING LYNCHED AFTERWARDS, BUT NOT NOW.

DON'T BE THAT ANTI-TOWN.

[Fumuki]

Don't vote on CJ NEITHER, DON'T VOTE ON HIM. TOTALLY NOT, AFTER MY POST WE'RE LYNCHING ME.

VOTE: unvote

[Fumuki]

Since this setup is about majority votes if we reach deadline, I'll be lynched anyway, so wait a little for my post. Until later.

PS: After I post what I'll post, don't quickhammer me yet neither, some townies will still have doubts and I want to answer them.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

CJ isn't town.

The timing of Brie's vote on Fumuki is hideous. The speed with which the Fumuki wagon is picking up is surprising, I'm not entirely sure what to make of it.

[Fumuki]

what's up teacher and KTS.

Why stopped talking?

WTF

ARE YOU GUYS REALIZING TOWN IS WINNING THIS GAME?

[teacher]

And back to spamming the board and promising analyses........Kill for days you have promised to explain your Brie read. Days. But the two times you have tried, you were caught in lies (891 So.....
1. Explain the Scum!Brie case?
2. Explain why, if Scum!CeeJay, he would put his partner at L-1 (801) where she would stay for 2.5 hours?

[Fumuki]

CJ isn't town.

The timing of Brie's vote on Fumuki is hideous. The speed with which the Fumuki wagon is picking up is surprising, I'm not entirely sure what to make of it.

BBT, PLEASE UNVOTE. BELIEVE ME FOR NOW SINCE I'LL GETTING LYNCHED HERE ANYWAY AFTERWARDS.

CJ ISN'T SCUM. IF YOU GUYS PROCEED WITH THE LYNCH HERE TOWN WILL BE LOSING. THESE GUYS ARE GAMBLING LIKE HELL.

[Killthestory]

each time you post the more embarassed youll be come post game teacher

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Pre-flip associations are bad.

[teacher]

Silent because subway commuting home. Interested in the solution you have Fumuki, or at least whatever creative juices are flowing. Because I think what you are going to offer is something newly cocked up because my 1026 explained how town still wins with a CeeJay mislynch today.