Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[mutantdevle]

Damn, 9 pages already. I better start reading.

Also

VOTE: A50

Fuck you. Did you choose that on purpose because you saw that I chose it last PYP X/Y game I was in?

[mutantdevle]

Damn, 10 pages already. I better start reading.

[mutantdevle]

saske is town by the draft imo

If you're reasoning is that saske is town because scum does want PRs and hence wouldn't choose a number that is so 'unlikely' to be a PR, then you're wrong.

[yessiree]

VC 1.3

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

The Janitor (4) -

Mathdino, Almost50, Iconeum, Beefster

Almost50 (3) -

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, brassherald, mutantdevle

Beefster (2) -

the worst, Ausuka

Lovebird (1) -

Ircher

Iconeum (1) -

Taly

Taly (1) -

Lovebird

Not voting

- Lalendra, The Janitor

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-05-15 20:00:00)

[mutantdevle]

to be clear, my intent was to be far enough down the draft that

- I would not be a target for the NK

- I would essentially be forced to be a VT or a terrible PR

i did actually try to be a PR once i saw that i was 6th on the draft though, and obv no comment on that

Fun fact, the 6th position is the most frequently night killed position in PYP X/Y games.

[mutantdevle]

Btw, I asked a friend if I should pick 6 or 7. I thought 7, but she said 6. Annoying.

Another fun fact: I originally chose 7 but then switched my number to 8 shortly before the deadline because I considered the number 7 too risky.

[mutantdevle]

Night 3 Vigilante/Vengeful: people keep crumbing this, stop crumbing. vig/venge someone based on community consensus. i doubt town picked vengeful but if anyone claims vengeful, policy lynch them (this is optimal play)

1-Shot Vigilante OR 1-Shot PGO: vig someone who's either dead weight or is likely to be lynched tomorrow. luckily we have a list of "most likely to be PR" to "least likely to be PR" so just try to hit vanillas imo. doubt anyone ever picks PGO in this setup

Cop OR 1-Shot Redirector: we hypoclaim cop targets tomorrow, remember to actually act like you have an inno

Universal Backup OR Role Cop: role cop is surprisingly not terrible. rolecop people at the top of the list. look for scum picking vengeful, redirector, etc.

Neighborizer OR Fruit Vendor: i sincerely hope no one picked fruit vendor. neighborize talkative hard-to-sorts who won't get NK'd. i used to be a great neighbour but now i just get NK'd so don't neighborize me thanks

I'd just like to build/correct some points on this.

When it comes to crumbing, just don't. Not in PYP X/Y. When scum KNOW whether or not you're likely to be a PR, they can spot your crumbs and soft claims far more easily. The most common reason for scum killing someone in PYP X/Y games is because they are confident they know the

exact

role of whoever they are killing. And when I say most common, I mean 40% of all night kills ever made in this setup. Do. Not. Crumb.

Vengeful, as a role, is not statistically AI for this setup. But yes, obviously lynch anyone who claims the role.

PGO has only ever been picked once.

I like the idea of hypo claiming cop results. I just worry that people are going to be able to stick to them.

Again, to reiterate, vengeful is not a scum exclusive role. In fact, it's been more frequently obtained by town but that's still close to 50/50. On the other hand, redirector is 100% scummy.

Unlike Math, I would like to be neighbourised

[mutantdevle]

1 is actually very scummy to pick for starters. I think scum are within the lowest picked #s (1,2,3,4,5) but no 2 scums would have picked the same #.

The #s 1-3 are often picked by scum. But from there it fluctuates.

And scum has actually picked the same number before (2). From this, they gained no PRs and lost the game. So whilst it is possible, I find it incredibly unlikely.

[mutantdevle]

Anyone feel like spoonfeeding me why any of the setup spec p1 makes sense?

Because most people get the setup spec wrong and I enjoy correcting them with facts and statistics :3

Seriously though, it can be helpful. Last game I was able to predict (and prevent) a mafia night kill and fairly confidently figure out one of the mafias through setup spec and analysis of past games. Sadly, I woke up dead that night since the mafia knew my role and had a vig. Town lost that game (mostly due to toxicity)

[mutantdevle]

Also I honestly dont think there's much merit to reads based on the draft, ESPECIALLY scumreads, but if it helps people find scum i see no reason to desist it (￣ω￣)

I'd say that someone's draft number alone is not enough to warrant a lynch. But I'll certainly be using it in conjunction with other scummy actions to deduce someone as scum. Sometimes there are patterns that you can't ignore.

[mutantdevle]

Tbh I thought 2 would've been picked more based on the previous draft data but w/e

Assuming we have the same data, why?

[Iconeum]

Vla weekend

[mutantdevle]

@Dino: I mean, I'm half asleep already, so I want your opinion on this: Would it be a good idea for those who didn't get their picked roles to claim what they picked? On the one hand it tells us "someone who had draft priority" over that slot got that specific X/Y ability, but on the other hand that's us telling the scum whom exactly are the TPRs AND what type of abilities they may have.

Absolutely not a good idea. The only time this kind of claim is ever acceptable (IMO) is when you've just been lynched.

[mutantdevle]

Well, what I have learnt from this game is I should've picked 7 or 9 instead.

Oh god I had the exact same thought.

In before we sign up to the next game together and have flashbacks to this moment.

[mutantdevle]

Also assume Saske is town by draft because scum would never let someone pick such a high number?

They can and they have picked 'high' numbers. (though that's considering high to be any number over 20).

[mutantdevle]

Pick Your Power X/Y Except The Mod Chooses Who The Mafia Are

(Not An Art Project)

Pick your power x/y except the x and y choose who chooses who the mod is who in turn chooses who the mafia are

Did these 2 games actually happen? If so, I'd appreciate being linked to them.

[mutantdevle]

HOWEVER I posssess a SIGNIFICANT amount of CONTENT so even THEN the draft should be secondary if even factored in AT ALL Σ(-᷅_-᷄๑)

The draft should definitely be factored; especially for association tells.

[mutantdevle]

(who the hell picks 413 unless (a) they wanted to make sure they remained powerless, or (b) expected nobody to pick a certain role and wanted to go for that (which is still farfetched because while the pick guarantees nobody else would have picked the same number it also guarantees she will come after everyone who picked a unique number)

The scum that has picked high numbers in the past have done so in the hope that:

- Most people who picked lower numbers than that picked the same number and hence automatically go behind them.
- Had their other scum members pick fairly low numbers and have 1 high number just in case there was a lot of duplicates.

Personally, I don't think picking a high number is particularly AI in either way. However, if Saske does flip scum, then her partners almost definitely picked low ones.

[mutantdevle]

i disagree with this, i think scum usually goes for 2 lower numbers and 1 larger one (to get a "guaranteed" singleton)

This isn't actually too accurate. Though the level of inaccuracy depends on what you consider low and large numbers.

[mutantdevle]

I mean this is why reading from the DRAFT is SHITAKE in my opinion （⌒▽⌒）- really ANYONE could pick ANY number for ANY reason

Yes, but scum are able to coordinate their reasons. The number you submit knowing nothing about what anyone else is submitting and the number you submit knowing 2 of the numbers that others are submitting can be very different numbers.

That's why the numbers give us information. Mafia's numbers are more controlled.

[mutantdevle]

Beefster would probably say he can't read me anyway (actually so would mutant, but whatever).

I wouldn't say that I

can't

read you, more that I'm bad at it :3 But that isn't anything unique to you.

[mutantdevle]

I've seen the rest of the playerlist once or twice: {mutant, ...

From reading my games I assume? I don't recall ever having played with you.

[mutantdevle]

I like Simyk's angles and analysis but goddamn are those posts hard to read

I admire your commitment and effort with the caps lock and ascii but I find myself skimming because it's hard to decipher

Actually nvm I'm getting used to it now

I had the exact same development on her. One moment I was like "uh this is giving me a headache" and then the next I was like "I love this!"

[SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis]

Damn, 2 MORE pages already. I better start reading... ＿ﾉ乙(､ﾝ､)_

[mutantdevle]

VOTE: Janitor

I'm liking Math, SIMYK & Icon - though I can't help thinking that my 'liking' of Math may actually just be hoping as I don't want to fall into to the trap of town reading someone just because they value the setup spec as much as I do again.

Everyone else I don't find too noteworthy.

This concludes my page of posting.