Mini Theme 2007: Police Academy 1 - Game Over

[Titus]

In addition, scum will be assigned 1 random cop, 1 sane or insane cop, and 1 naive or paranoid cop, with town receiving the remainder of the roles.

I must have missed this. Scum are guaranteed to be one of each, so identifying the random cops narrows the list considerably to finding the likely scum in the list of randoms.

The best way to do that is to have a cop check on a known alignment. Then we'll have Four pools.

A: Target Town + Result Town- Naive/Sane/Random
B: Target Town + Result Scum - Paranoid/Insane/Random
C: Target Scum + Result Town - Naive/Insane/Random
D: Target Scum + Result Scum - Paranoid/Sane/Random

The next check should target someone who should be the opposite target of what your result was. Since I got a scum result, I should favor checking a lean town read. By getting a different result, then we can eliminate certain sanities and get a cross reference. We should have two targets, neither of whom is SCBA.

We can build upon the Jingle check SCBA did, even if it is a lie. We have the players who got scum on SCBA check Jingle. SCBA checks a target along with those who got town on him.

This way if SCBA is lying scum, then we have an accurate result somewhere. Yet, if he's town and accurate we keep having him build out his checks.

This is of course assuming I am outvoted on lynching SCBA.

[Titus]

You have got to be kidding me....

VOTE: Titus

So this isn't really about engaging you is it? This is you being a my way or the highway queen. Why do you always act like this in every game we are in together? Why am I the one always giving concessions?

[Titus]

The last game we were in together, I told you Zach was mafia. You shouted me down. A long time ago, I caught a scumslip on page 1 in s large. They both got away and won. I'm not asking you to abandon your reads but to state that our reads must match or I die says you can't or won't justify your reads. That's blatantly unfair to both of us.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I don't think you understand how this works. regardless of whether sgba is town or scum, checking them twice will expose the random cops immediately because anyone who gets a different result than they had the first night is a CONFIRMED RANDOM COP.

[Jingle]

@smith: V/LA until Saturday.

Scratch that, I had a ridiculously productive morning. I'm here and need to catch up, but no longer need the V/LA.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

You have got to be kidding me....

VOTE: Titus

So this isn't really about engaging you is it? This is you being a my way or the highway queen. Why do you always act like this in every game we are in together? Why am I the one always giving concessions?

my vote indicates that i believe you are scum.

[Titus]

I don't think you understand how this works. regardless of whether sgba is town or scum, checking them twice will expose the random cops immediately because anyone who gets a different result than they had the first night is a CONFIRMED RANDOM COP.

Yeah and the non randoms just wasted a day of checks.

[Titus]

You have got to be kidding me....

VOTE: Titus

So this isn't really about engaging you is it? This is you being a my way or the highway queen. Why do you always act like this in every game we are in together? Why am I the one always giving concessions?

my vote indicates that i believe you are scum.

A vote indicates you think I am better off dead. If you thought I was scum, you wouldn't be belittling me and saying I was spouting crazy nonsense.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

check my reads list.

[Jingle]

Spoiler: Nosferatu
Lists Jingle and Porkens as top tier town reads in 518. Maintains that Porkens is town in 963. And again lists Porkens as a top town read in 1008, and admits he hasn't considered Porkens as scum ever at 1041, when questioned by Punreader. In 1166, he questions wtf happened to Porkens play, and confirms what he means when I asked. Then Nos appears to look into Porkens vote history and comments on how it looks:
Nosferatu wrote:
he acts like a leashed sk or some shit idek how to feel about it

like is he town that really doesn't want to die or scum that doesn't give a shit

Then votes Porkens in 1179, which was the hammer.
CONCLUSION
Honestly... I know this isn't going to be a popular opinion but this seriously doesn't look scum-motivated at all... I'm holding this part of my post until I can see who pushes that as a reason to lynch Nos, because I strongly believe that outside my locktown reads, that is where we will catch scum.Honestly... I know this isn't going to be a popular opinion but this seriously doesn't look scum-motivated at all... I'm holding this part of my post until I can see who pushes that as a reason to lynch Nos, because I strongly believe that outside my locktown reads, that is where we will catch scum.

I'll think on this, but I'm pretty sure you're objectively wrong.

In post 1243, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:
In post 1238, Gorkington wrote:
i meant that it should be obvious in terms of me voting them, pushing them and thinking that they were scum?

well it wasnt. i got the impression you felt much more strongly about tits.


im dying

I can personally attest that ETL has had long conversations with people about their feelings on tits.

i remember you saying that, but i thought you had changed your mind before end of day though?
i feel like titus is trying to imply that youre only now changing your mind?

Jingle is the one that told us that wasn't part of the plan. I commented that because nos hammered, there wasn't really time to make a new plan and get everyone on board.
I am still okay with being lynched if that would be the most helpful to town.

THIS IS TRUE. IT WAS NEVER PART OF THE PLAN TO LYNCH LAST NIGHT'S COP TARGET, REGARDLESS OF WHO IT WAS. THE POINT OF USING A UNIVERSAL TOWNREAD WAS TO MAKE FLIPPING THEM UNNECESSARY. THE POINT OF IT BEING SPECIFICALLY THE HYDRA (there was one) WILL BE TALKED ABOUT IN THE NEXT "Theory Post With Jingle". STAY TUNED.

So here's what I think should be the plan for tonight:

We all cop SGBA again. Whoever's results differ from last night's pinpoints (some of) the random cops, of which there are at least 4, and possibly 5. Since the Random cops throw the wrenches into the investigations, being able to remove those results from the list greatly increases the power of the setup for town.

4 random cops
2 sane cops
2 insane cops
2 naive cops
2 paranoid cops
1 additional cop, randed among the five sanities

Thoughts?

ETL just became 99.99999% town based on NKA, completely independently of my townread on her.

[Titus]

No shit ETL is town. That's why I am trying to work with her and ir's causing me to go grey.

Jingle I would love to explain why we didn't cop an actual consensus townread. The fact you screamed consensus but pushed through obvious scum is part of the reason I cannot clear you.

[Jingle]

Spoiler: I see your table, and raise you an improvement.

PLAYER	NAIVE	PARANOID	SANE	INSANE	RANDOM	N1 INVESTIGATION(TARGET;RESULT;FLIP)	N2
Draynth	M	N	M	N	M	SGBA; Town; --
SGBA	N	M	N	M	M	Jingle; Scum; --
PENGUINPOWER	M	M	M	M	M	SGBA; Town
PORKENS	M	M	M	M	M
JINGLE	M	N	M	N	M	SGBA; Town; --
GORKINGTON	N	M	N	M	M
TITUS	N	M	N	M	M
NOSFERATU	N	M	N	M	M
GINNGIE	M	M	M	M	M
ALMOST50	M	N	M	N	M
ESPECIALLYHEADERELIES	N	M	N	M	M
EDDIE	M	N	M	N	M
PUN	N	M	N	M	M

Updated table. I got lazy and stopped copying over ETL's results, halfway through, but someone can fix that later. Presuming SGBA town for this until proven otherwise.

Theory Time!

5 town results, 6 scum results; we can work with this.

With a low parity split like this, we don't want to reinvestigate. This is because we are more likely to . The both pools (town and scum results) are going to target the second scummiest player. (We should be lynching the scummiest player). This is because at this point, WE CAN ACTUALLY LEARN SOMETHING FROM THESE RESULTS.

I'm not going to post a guide for both pools, because, again, lazy. But here should be enough for the setup-minded among you to get the rest of the way in case I get nightkilled.

If we receive 5 town results: the target is the same alignment as SGBA.
If we receive 4 town results: the target is likely the same alignment as SGBA.
If we receive 1-2 town results: the target is likely the opposite alignment of SGBA.
If we receive 0 town results: the target is the opposite alignment as SGBA.

This is analyzable evidence.

If someone wants to run numbers, they're welcome to, but the random 13th cop actually makes it a rather complicated math problem.

One more theory post explaining why ETL is basically conftown, and we'll get this ball rolling.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

JANGLE. ONE SCUM IS GUARANTEED TO BE A RANDO

[EspeciallyTheLies]

also how do you figure your results. that is some mental gymnastics there buddy pal. random results make everything wonky.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

also also what is m nmmnn?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I don't think you understand how this works. regardless of whether sgba is town or scum, checking them twice will expose the random cops immediately because anyone who gets a different result than they had the first night is a CONFIRMED RANDOM COP.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

i like this game.

[Jingle]

In the optimal results (high parity), ETL's plan for reinvestigating is the correct play for the larger pool. The odds heavily favor random cops being present in that pool, and in fact in the highest parity results possible (9/2) confirm it. In the highest parity results, we have a confirmed scum in two people and a 50% likelihood that the other is fully accurate. In those cases, the larger pool reinvestigates.

In the other cases (like we have now) we want to target an oppositely aligned player. Instead of discussing this yesterday, I made the executive decision to force town to townhunt D1 and scumhunt D2, because we had a much larger chance of doing so correctly by doing it in this order.

That's right, we actively DIDN'T want the hydra to be shot last night. Hence, the hydra was the optimal choice for our investigation. I also played up the 'cop investigates are a hypodoc' aspect Titus brought up in order to keep the shot away. In point of fact, shooting the universal townread last night was pretty much the only chance scum had to not autolose in the high parity distribution situation. Thus, ETL, who picked up on the optimal play in that case for town, would have known that the CORRECT play for scum would be to shoot SGBA.

[Jingle]

also how do you figure your results. that is some mental gymnastics there buddy pal. random results make everything wonky.

Specifically those are the results from the pool of players who received town results this time.

The scum results this time would be separate.

M means maybe, and N means no.

The N's are technically presumed no's until flips, but functionally it doesn't matter because the flip changes the type of information, not the amount.

[Jingle]

JANGLE. ONE SCUM IS GUARANTEED TO BE A RANDO

Yup. I also played up how it was correct from the scum PoV to not lie about their results today in the hopes that they wouldn't because they might get caught in the lie, which is objectively true. Scum getting caught in the lie is one of the largest dangers to them in this setup. Scum not lying is also crazy useful to us as town, and well worth the trade of not being able to catch them in said lie.

[Jingle]

We can talk about things that aren't results or plans now, although obv no one should hammer or put anyone in hammer range before I can talk at length.

Well in that case.

The Ginngie kill is strange. If you iso her, there are four possible conclusions to come from it.

1. I am pun who killed her. (I personally know this to not be the case. Unfortunately since I have no proof, that means I may need to be lynched before lylo.)
   
2. Someone who is pun in this game knows I would killer her as pun and decided to frame me for it in spite of me playing on an alt. (I will list the players who could do this in a moment. It is a very short list.)
   
3. Someone who is pun in this game has experience with her to know of her skills.
   
4. Or someone who is pun off of the content she posted felt threatened.

Let's go off of these in reverse order.

The only player who Ginngie really pushed this game as pun with any strength is Titus; if you look at her iso, it is fairly apparent that she was pushing Titus harder than any other player. This would make Titus pun. I find this the most likely.

The list of players with experience with Ginngie is PenguinPower, Gorkington, Nosferatu, eddie, and Titus. In which case, within those 5 names you have a minimum of 1 scum, potentially up to three. This would give Titus fairly good odds of being pun. This is the second-most-likely.

The list of players with the aptitude to know I would kill Ginngie is limited to eddie and Titus. In which case, within those two names you have a minimum of one scum, possibly two. This would give Titus a 50% chance minimum of being pun. This I admit is quite unlikely, but it is not altogether impossible.

By the nightkill, she would thus be the player most likely to be pun.

Beyond that, she is incredibly likely to be pun thanks to the nature of how late-D1 unfolded, something I will explain at another time.

She should have been the lynch yesterday and she still should be the lynch today.

This post feels remarkably halfassed, and may suggest I need to reevaluate pun.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

oh. ok. can we use X for no?

[Titus]

So Jingle, the correct play from your perspective is to cop a scummy player? We'd then figure out if said player shared an alignment with the hydra?

I'd volunteer to be the cop choice in that instance as my being confirmed town would prove that hydra as scum.

I don't see how you get there.

[Jingle]

Spoiler: Nos Progression

wait i actually did not know he was in hammer range i thought everyone jumped ship to penguin

VOTE: Porkens

I just can't get my mind off of the whole "ill be good" posting

lasted like 3 posts and then devolved into what seems to be like advanced shitposting idk

To everyone:

if you're not going to vote for Penguin, you need to convince me why they are town. Not why another person is a better lynch, but

why Penguin is town

because if you have no good argument, I expect your vote to move there ASAP.

I mean he's done virtually no scumhunting, but he also hasn't been here and isn't trying to hide his active lurkiness

I like that he acknowledges his lack of participation but without just lampshading it like scum usually do, which is why I have him at nulltown

why is he confirmed scum, he just sounds nullscum from your description

VOTE: titusi think this day is degrading

VOTE: unvote
I think titus might be town if a50 says so

don't lynch me.
ill be good.
VOTE: unvote
VOTE: titus

Yeah like I said I don't think 8:50 saves Titus here unless one of them is scum in one is Town

he acts like a leashed sk or some shit idek how to feel about it

like is he town that really doesn't want to die or scum that doesn't give a shit

I'm legitimately interested in how porkens play dropped so quick so fast

You mean like, the attitude/tone shift? Like how he went from interested and probably townie to weird as fuck vote hopping jellyfish?

Yeah
Calling the hydra scared scum was also
Interesting

I'm legitimately interested in how porkens play dropped so quick so fast

Her contributions sum up to a wall case on pun that looked like something fabricated, and a spurt of activity every time someone talks about suspecting her.

I guess nows the time to start posting again

I read this and I don't get: "Natural Reads progression". I get "How do I justify this vote?" Like, nothing about it is why porkens is scum, but rather why it's okay to be scumreading him. The disconnect is minor, but real, and makes it look WAY more like they're trying to justify the vote there without looking scummy than that they actually think Porkens is scum.

Plus, their reaction to the beetlejuicing implication was not a town reaction at all.

Spoiler: Unofficial VC to Hammer, A Timeline

Draynth (1)

Almost50 ,

Porkens (5)

Draynth , Gorkington , Titus , Ginngie , Stop Getting Banned Again PenguinPower

Titus (3)

, Punreader , EspeciallyTheLies , eddie , L-1

Punreader (2)

Nosferatu , ,

SGBA (1) Porkens ,

Not Voting (1)

Jingle ,

I'm really not grooving on the wagon comp for this being 3 null reads, tn, and a townread that's been largely absent.

Much, much happier with

VOTE: Nos

I'm not quite sure what the VC looks like

VOTE: Nos

I made an unofficial one like a page ago that should still accurate.

VOTE: Porkens

I just can't get my mind off of the whole "ill be good" posting

lasted like 3 posts and then devolved into what seems to be like advanced shitposting idk

3 people moved their votes between the Unofficial VC and the hammer.

ETL, A50, and Porkens himself.

Given that Porkens jumpy vote was Nos's stated reason for voting him, she was well aware of that.

Given ETL is the one who started the Penguin Push, she was well aware of that.

Given that my unofficial VC is when I voted her, I find it hard to believe she didn't realize it existed. Given that her progression started on the page where I pointed out the VC and ended the next page, with a hammer, 6 posts after the L-1 vote and 5 posts after a post that said I'm not sure if Porkens is town or scum.

I don't believe, for even a second, that Nos wasn't fully aware that was the hammer vote.

[Jingle]

oh. ok. can we use X for no?

Sure. It literally doesn't matter, so long as someone updates it AFTER all the claims are made each day. No updating it before all the claims are made, because we don't want to make it easier for scum to figure out their viable fakeclaims.

So Jingle, the correct play from your perspective is to cop a scummy player? We'd then figure out if said player shared an alignment with the hydra?

I'd volunteer to be the cop choice in that instance as my being confirmed town would prove that hydra as scum.

I don't see how you get there.

I actually endorse this course of action. Titus is an EXCELLENT choice for our cop tonight, for several reasons.

First, if we get the result that Titus and the hydra share an alignment, then not only are they both confirmed town by virtue of the townread on the hydra and Titus hating bussing, but Titus pretty much has to drop her "LET'S LYNCH THE HYDRA!" rhetoric and actually start playing the game. It's all the best parts of policy lynching one of the two of them, but we get to keep Titus around for reads if she's town.

And to help with the 'mental gymnastics' 5 players received an innocent result on SGBA. If those same five players receive an innocent result on Titus, we know that they are the same alignment unless both Porkens and Ging were whichever of Sane/Insane would give that result AND that we didn't get our thirteenth cop in that variety. Which is negligible.

We have two separate pools to use as a comparison, increasing the odds of workable information.